Llama Llama Duck 2 - Game Thread - The Return of Insanity

[Supagoof]

It was a peacefull time in Llama land. King Atreyu ruled on high, with his faithful gaurd of legionary Supagoof always at his side. High above his throne, the royal banner flew.


http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i278/wolfshonor/llamas/llamacrest.gif
Story spoiler due to heavy imaging

The king was working out in his recreation area.http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i278/wolfshonor/llamas/llamasize2.gifWhile on his way to the shower after his workout, the king heard a strange noise. Looking out the castle window into the harborhttp://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i278/wolfshonor/llamas/llagoon.gif, he spotted a ship coming in.http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i278/wolfshonor/llamas/vikingllamaboat.gifThinking it was his friends http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i278/wolfshonor/llamas/shrek-2.gif & http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i278/wolfshonor/llamas/shrek.giffrom far far away, he quickened his pace to finish his shower.http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i278/wolfshonor/llamas/shower.gif
Getting out, he dressed in his harbor greeting clothes and headed to the pier.
http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i278/wolfshonor/llamas/usmarinea.gif. On his way, one of the assistants http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i278/wolfshonor/llamas/DrWright.gif stopped him with critical news.

King Atreyu, I have bad news. Our royal Llama traer has been kidnapped!http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i278/wolfshonor/llamas/kidnapped.gif The only thing we found were a bunch of web shaped tracks leading from his room.

Curses. If the ducks took our trainer, then they know all our special tactics. If they were to infiltrate the castle, there'd be no way for us to tell them apart from our specialy trained squad! Tell Supagoof http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i278/wolfshonor/llamas/Llamagoof.gif to meet me at the pier. I must go greet our guests. Perhaps we can come up with a plan to get our trainer back.

Yes, your majesty.

So Supagoof met Atreyu on the pier as the ship pulled into port.

This does not bode well your majesty. I shall gather up the legionary http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i278/wolfshonor/llamas/birthdayllama3.gif, http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i278/wolfshonor/llamas/llamafaerwain.gif & http://i74.photobucket.com/albums/i278/wolfshonor/llamas/cowboy1.gif and follow the tracks. We shall recover our trainer. Though first, our guests.

Unfortunately for them, the ship was not the kings friends from far far away. When it pulled up to the dock, a loud explosion rang out. Obliterating the ship and everyone nearby. When Llama's arrived on the scene, the only thing they could see was the corpses of Atreyu the Masked Llama and Supagoof, and a carved stone that survived the explosion.

Weee'reee heeEEEeere! And we know all your moves. The ducks will rise again, and this time - we will be the last animals standing!

We must avenge our king! They rallied, and the llama's all agreed to search the land and eliminate the ducks.

DAY 1 Begins! Day 1 to last 48 hours.

ROLES

Careless Baner – This role can only bane other people. They can’t bane themselves!
Seer/Fool – This role can discover someone’s role by sending in a PM at night. Are they truly the seer, or are they just fooling themselves. A coin flip gives you your true power when selecting this role. Scry interference is in effect.
Voider – This role can cause someone’s power to not work until the next night phase by selecting them during the current night phase.
Disguiser – This role can cause themselves or another to look like a different role/team at night.
Mayor – This role’s point during the day counts as 3.
Howard, the ? – Of course the zany antics of this space duck would come back, but this time it might be for any team. This role can cause someone to not be lynched by pointing at them during the day phase. Though like the careless baner, they can't point themselves.
Assassin – This role can kill someone the next night by hiding that person’s name during their day post (and by post, I mean not in their avatar, not sig, not location, just the parts where you put the text into when you click that reply button). Assassin's will have to inform narrators of where they hid their kill.
VorteXer – Ceika created some X-Llamas, so we made an X role. This role can cause all points at one player to be deflected to another player via sending two names at night. The players are individually told if points for them are on being “vortexed”, but not if they are on the "sending" or "receiving" end.
Beast - Well, Llama's are beasts of burden, so this guy will take someone down with them when they go.
Mason - Yep.


Players - 6 left standing

{table=head]Name|Died On|Role
Aemoh|Day 3|Duck Vortexer
Alarra|Survivor|Llama Careless Baner
Allysian|Day 3|Llama Assassin
Ariko|Night 1|Howard the Llama.
Banjo1985|Night 7|Duck Careless Baner
billtodamax|Day 8|Llama Assassin
Catseye2121|Day 13|Bunny Beast
Cristo Meyers|WINNER|Duck Assassin
Dallas-Dakota|Night 7|Duck Voider
DarkComet|Night 11|Llama Voider
deathslayer7|Day 12|Llama Voider
Dr. Bath|Night 2|Bunny Mason
Dragoon|WINNER|Bunny Careless Baner
Evnafets|Night 3|Llama Careless Baner
Fin|Night 3|Duck Assassin
Fleeing Coward|Night 8|Llama Voider
GoC|Night 2|Bunny Mason
Griever|Day 5|Duck Mason
hap_hazard|Night 12|Bunny Seer
Happy Turtle|Night 3|Howard the Duck
Haruki-Kun|Night 7|Llama Careless Baner
Helgraf|Night 9|Disguiser Duck
Hyozo/Iceddragons|Day 9|Howard the Llama
Jontom Xire|Night 2|Llama Vortexer
Lamech/lamech|Day 6|Llama Assassin
Lex-Kat|Day 9|Llama Assassin
Mordokai|Night 4|Llama Careless Baner
Murska|Night 3|Llama Beast
Mustiado|Night 8|Llama Mayor
PirateMonk|Day 16|Llama Mason
Radikal Skippy|WINNER|Duck Seer
Recaiden|Night 3|Llama Assassin
Reinholdt|Night 15|Llama Vortexer
Selrahc|Night 14|Howard the Llama
Shadow|Night 2|Duck Assassin
Shadowcaller|Day 14|Bunny Careless Baner
Stu42|Day 5|Llama Seer
Szilard|WINNER|Duck Beast
Talic|Day 2|Llama Assassin
The Valiant Turtle|Survivor|Llama Mason
ThePhantom|Day 7|Duck Mason
Trixie|Night 9|Llama Assassin
Uncle Festy|Day 10|Llama Assassin
Wolfbane|Night 1|Llama Seer/Fool
Nychta/xNadia|Day 15|Llama Mayor
Zar Peter|Night 5|Llama Mason
Zeb The Troll|Day 13|Llama Careless Baner
[/table]

[Hyozo]

The frozen Llama stands by the side of the lake, motionless from the sock of the sudden explosion and loss of his ruler, or because he is frozen. In the following commotion, Alarra seems to have walked into such a position that the frozen Llama's nose was pointed directly at her.

[billtodamax]

By sheer dint of being the first person that caught my eye in in the recruitment thread: Haruki-Kun

[Jontom Xire]

A list of players would be nice. I'm going to point at Murska and hope he's playing.

[Zar Peter]

Point at Helgraf.

He's very quiet in this game so far :smalltongue:

[Shadowcaller]

Jontom Xire...

[Fleeing Coward]

iceddragons for been the first player to post.

[Recaiden]

Well, I feel like I should choose Griever or Catseye2121, because they tend to come back to get me, but iceddragons seems more suspicious.

EDIT: Nevermind.

[Trixie]

Friends? We face uncountable enemies. Fear not! We arent quite beaten yet! Be strong, well justly win!

Oh, and Deathslayer7.

[Hyozo]

The frozen llama would complain about the injustice of lynching the first person to vote, but sadly the frozen llama can not speak due to the fact that he is frozen.

[Cristo Meyers]

LlamallamaDuckLlamaDuck, LlamallamaDuckLlamaDuck...

Oh, the Llama-trainer's gone and the ducks are here.

Supagoof is gone but we have no fear.

How's it gonna end? Well I'll tell you now...

...ummm...

...crap...

...Hey Zar Peter! What's the next lyric?

[Zar Peter]

LlamallamaDuckLlamaDuck, LlamallamaDuckLlamaDuck...

Oh, the Llama-trainer's gone and the ducks are here.

Supagoof is gone but we have no fear.

How's it gonna end? Well I'll tell you now...

...ummm...

...crap...

...Hey Zar Peter! What's the next lyric?
The Llamas will win using a super-fat cow.

[Cristo Meyers]

Perfect!

The LLamas will win using a super-fat cow.

...hit it, chorus!

LlamallamaDuckLlamaDuck, LlamallamaDuckLlamaDuck...

[Skippy]

Piká! Pika pika pikapi! Pika pika chuuuuuuu!

(Translation: Oh, no, this is terrible! Cristo, do you know why they're doing this?)

[UncleWolf]

Piká! Pika pika pikapi! Pika pika chuuuuuuu!

(Translation: Oh, no, this is terrible! Cristo, do you know why they're doing this?)

*trows a pokeball at*

>.>

What? I was needing a wild Skippy and you know the saying.

"Gotta catch them all."

[Murska]

A list of players would be nice. I'm going to point at Murska and hope he's playing.

Jontom Xire guessed I was playing. He must obviously be a wolf! I mean, duck! http://i721.photobucket.com/albums/ww213/Bestrafer_fin/happyturtle.gif

[Helgraf]

Point at Helgraf.

He's very quiet in this game so far :smalltongue:

Reciprocal point at Zar Peter for being a twit. :smallbiggrin:

[happyturtle]

Player list, sponsored by the Rainbow Lemon Llama. Who is totally not an assassin. Why would anyone suspect that?

{table]Aemoh
Alarra
Allysian
Ariko
Banjo1985
Billtodamax
Catseye2121
Cristo Meyers
Dallas Dakota
DarkComet
Deathslayer7
Dr. Bath
Dragoon
Evnafets
Fin
Fleeing Coward
GoC
Griever
Hap_Hazard
Happyturtle
Haruki-Kun
Helgraf
Iceddragons
Jontom Xire
Lamech
Lex-Kat
Mordokai
Murska
Mustiado
PirateMonk
RadikalSkippy
Recaiden
Reinholdt
Selrahc
Shadow
Shadowcaller
Stu42
Szilard
Talix
The Valient Turtle
ThePhantom
Trixie
Uncle Festy
Wolfbane
XNadia
Zar Peter
Zeb the Troll[/table]

[Reinholdt]

*bamf* First day random at Szilard. *bamf*

[Deathslayer7]

*throws pokeball*
*hits Trixie in the forehead*
*Trixie is stunned*
*5 sec wait*
*Trixie has been captured!*

[Studoku]

"I have returned, albeit in this monsterous form. The ducks shall be destroyed."

Studoku the monster bobblehead points at a tree.

"Hurm. My eyesight in this form is terrible"

Studoku points at the nearest object that is definately a llama- Reinholdt.

[Trixie]

*throws pokeball*
*hits Trixie in the forehead*
*Trixie is stunned*
*5 sec wait*
*Trixie has been captured!*

Hmm, what's that? Trying to sneak an assassination attempt in plain text? :smallconfused:

Yes, red text doesn't count as vote kill, but you had me (twice) in a normal one. Methinks we found our first duck (and I humbly ask for baning, if someone can spare one) :smallsigh:

[happyturtle]

Don't worry, Trixie, I posted your name two posts before ds7 did. :smallbiggrin:

[Fin]

Random point at Radikal Skippy for now. Also maybe Happyturtle may be an assasin, putting everyones name in a post means she can kill anyone she wants! I am not pointing at her though because she may yet be a Llama, just an assassiny one!

[UncleWolf]

Hmm, what's that? Trying to sneak an assassination attempt in plain text? :smallconfused:

Yes, red text doesn't count as vote kill, but you had me (twice) in a normal one. Methinks we found our first duck (and I humbly ask for baning, if someone can spare one) :smallsigh:

First, just because you are an assassin doesn't mean you are a duck. And second...

Trixie.

[GoC]

Mustiado..

[Dallas-Dakota]

Shadow, not for making him a day one lynch or anything. But if I picked anybody else, I'd get accused of pointing at newbs(who apparently are supposed to be killed off later, even if they are ducks....) or other things and get lynched....

[Dragoon]

It is obvious who a duck is, Mustiado. No, I'm just blaming him for the thievery of the llama I wanted, honest."

If someone honestly believed that was not a random reason, I do have some nice swamp land to sell.

[Fin]

Hey, nice new name Dallas. Your obviously trying to make it hard for assassins to hide that name in their posts!

[Shadow]

OK, I'd really like to know why it is that in every game we've seen/played together so far, the impulse to quickly kill trixie has come over me because of the annoyance of the whole "super-ultra-paranoid, calling for the baner" thing.
Really, come on!
Annoying as hell.

[banjo1985]

Ariko

In Chewiellama speak: Rawrrrrrrrr!

Also, I'm away until 6th April, please don't autolynch me.

[Mustiado]

GoC, the rest of your post seems funny to me. I mean, why white periods? :smallconfused:

[Shadow]

GoC, the rest of your post seems funny to me. I mean, why white periods? :smallconfused:

Your name fills eight characters. He needs ten.

[PirateMonk]

All this random pointing is ridiculous. We should use logic, instead. For example, ducks swim a lot, not unlike (happy)turtles.

[Recaiden]

OK, I'd really like to know why it is that in every game we've seen/played together so far, the impulse to quickly kill trixie has come over me because of the annoyance of the whole "super-ultra-paranoid, calling for the baner" thing.
Really, come on!
Annoying as hell.

I don't even care if ze's on my team. Trixie.

[ThePhantom]

Because it seems like happyturtle is an assassin trying to cleverly get people, it is time to do away with her.

[Uncle Festy]

*begins examining evidence with magnifying glass*
Hm, there seems to be a strange string of characters on this piece of wood. It says thephantomistpam. I wonder what that means? :smallconfused:

[happyturtle]

Does anyone remember my very first werewolf role? Fanboy does! :smallbiggrin:

http://i163.photobucket.com/albums/t288/Vaarsuvius89/firelazor.png

I'm not saying I would pick Beast again out of nostalgia. After all, how could that possibly top being the Lemon Assassin?

http://i431.photobucket.com/albums/qq40/happyturtle-avs/werewolf/lemon-assassin.png

So go ahead, lynch me, baby. See if it makes you feel safer. http://i431.photobucket.com/albums/qq40/happyturtle-avs/smilies/howard.gif

[The Valiant Turtle]

Random point at Murska

[billtodamax]

did happyturtle just kill fanboy? It sure looks like it.

[happyturtle]

The lemon assassin doesn't need to hide names, billtothemax.

Or possibly she didn't assassinate FF Fanboy because he's not actually playing. :smallfrown:

[Aemoh]

*random day 1 point at Talix*

[Szilard]

Darth Llamaul was swinging around his awesome double-bladed lightsaber when he almost cut off Shadowcaller's arm.
He didn't say much though, as it was not in his nature.

[billtodamax]

Ah!aShe'sekillingmmeonow!oAhhhh!
*runs around screaming till tripped*

[UncleWolf]

We interrupt your previously scheduled program with the following announcement.

Jon has a long mustache.

Now back to your show.

[happyturtle]

Lemon Lemon Lemon Lemon Llama Lemon Lemon

Also Shaddowcaller

[Recaiden]

DD the cookie monster

[UncleWolf]

*pulls on a tux, tap dancing shoes, and grabs his hat and cane*

Have you seen the well-to-do, up and down Park Avenue
On that famous thoroughfare, with their noses in the air
High hats and Arrowed collars, white spats and lots of dollars
Spending every dime, for a wonderful time

If you're blue and you don't know where to go to
Why don't you go where fashion sits?

Puttin' on the ritz.

Different types who wear a day co-pants with stripes
And cut away coat, perfect fits,

Puttin' on the ritz!


Dressed up like a million dollar trouper
Trying hard to look like Gary Cooper (super duper)
Come let's mix where Rockefellers walk with sticks
Or umbrellas in their mitts

Puttin' on the Ritz!

*finishes and walks off stage to his dressing room*

Now, try to find my target in there. :smalltongue:

(Link to the song (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFabjc6mFk4))

And I assure you that there is a purpose to my post.

[billtodamax]

killing BU? bad form, bad form.

*facepalm* BU isn't in this game is he?

[Uncle Festy]

Alara, Hapyturtle, Reckaiden, Wulfbane, Italik, Uncle Fester, Kristo Meyers, Atreyu the Unmasked Llama, OgC
*nodnodnod*
:smalltongue:

[PirateMonk]

So go ahead, lynch me, baby. See if it makes you feel safer.

Don't worry, last game the first day lynch didn't count, and since no one would expect them to do that again, they obviously must be doing it.

[Zeb The Troll]

We interrupt your previously scheduled program with the following announcement.

Jon has a long mustache.

Now back to your show.Using logic, we see that Wolfbane is quoting the movie Red Dawn, clearly indicating that his name should be in red in people's posts.

Also, he is quoting the part of the hidden faction in the movie, much like the ducks here, and clearly he is trying to pass secret messages to other ducks.

Ergo, Wolfbane is a duck.

*points his BassetGunTM at Wolfbane*

[Zar Peter]

Don't worry, last game the first day lynch didn't count, and since no one would expect them to do that again, they obviously must be doing it.

But now you have mentioned it they can't do it.

[Reinholdt]

But now you have mentioned it they can't do it.
But now that you mentioned that he mentioned it, they have to do it.

[Talic]

Here we are, again, it seems.
Back in werewolf, after my hiatus.
Sup, everybody? Miss me?
The party seems to have already started, though, page 2 in the thread.
When you forget to bookmark it, that happens.

This being my first post, I suppose I should point at someone.
I usually don't try for vendettas on day 1, though...
Were I to want one, I'd point at Aemoh.
That would certainly be my post, alright.
But I'll start a feud with that point!
Eh watever, if it happens, it happens.

[Deathslayer7]

Here we are, again, it seems.
Back in werewolf, after my hiatus.
Sup, everybody? Miss me?
The party seems to have already started, though, page 2 in the thread.
When you forget to bookmark it, that happens.

This being my first post, I suppose I should point at someone.
I usually don't try for vendettas on day 1, though...
Were I to want one, I'd point at Aemoh.
That would certainly be my post, alright.
But I'll start a feud with that point!
Eh watever, if it happens, it happens.

look what i found. :smallbiggrin::smallamused:

[billtodamax]

well spotted.

[Jontom Xire]

Yeah. I spotted the missing "h", but didn't twig to it's significance. Very nicely done.

One question though. Why would anyone assassinate anyone else on day 1? They could be assassinating a potential friend.

[Talic]

look what i found. :smallbiggrin::smallamused:

Some people are read in the poetic style of Poe, it seems.

Now, find the other name I hid in there, and guess which one is really used... If any.

Edit: As for JX's question... what's the use of having a Ferrari, if you aren't gonna drive it?

[Jontom Xire]

Because if it's foggy and you drive too fast you may drive over a cliff!!

If you just go around assassinating people without the slightest clue as to what their role is, you may well end up helping your enemy more than you help yourself.

Suppose we had 20 players, 8 ducks, and 5 assassins. Suppose all 5 assassins cluelessly use their kills on day one and by chance kill 5 Llamas. Ignoring the lynch, at the end of the day we will have 7 Llamas and 8 ducks and the ducks have won!! Great going assassins!

Now suppose as an assassin you kill a duck on day one. Great going! And absolutely bloody useless. The best thing about killing ducks is going back and reviewing their voting history and using it to find other ducks, but on day one there is no voting history to speak of, so it's no real help at all.


So basically you are lashing out killing people willy nilly for the hell of it, without any consideration for A) winning the game, and B) Removing people from the enjoyment of the game for no reason other than your own selfish delight in your own powers.

So I switch my point to Talic, and I hope other people will too.

[Talic]

Because if it's foggy and you drive too fast you may drive over a cliff!!I'm a good driver, trust me.


If you just go around assassinating people without the slightest clue as to what their role is, you may well end up helping your enemy more than you help yourself.Thinning the herd reduces variables, and makes it harder for Ducks to hide.
Suppose we had 20 players, 8 ducks, and 5 assassins. Suppose all 5 assassins cluelessly use their kills on day one and by chance kill 5 Llamas. Ignoring the lynch, at the end of the day we will have 7 Llamas and 8 ducks and the ducks have won!! Great going assassins!Let's start with the odds of each assassin blindly picking a distinct and different Llama, in your above example. 2.97%. I suppose that using emotionally evocative phrases and exclamation marks to emphasize the risk of incredible longshot odds wouldn't qualify as fearmongering, now would it? :smalltongue:

Now suppose as an assassin you kill a duck on day one. Great going! And absolutely bloody useless. The best thing about killing ducks is going back and reviewing their voting history and using it to find other ducks, but on day one there is no voting history to speak of, so it's no real help at all. Really? By killing a duck, you've increased the margin that the ducks need to win by one, adding one day to the game, and increasing the amount of data you get by one step, while simultaneously reducing the number of players to track. But now, rather than looking at the end game, you focus on a tertiary benefit, and use it to try to discredit my reasoning. It's a shame that the reasoning is still sound, even after you try to expand the emphasis of losing 1 person's history over gaining an additional day on everyone else's.
Especially since both sides have masons. As the only function of a mason is to know the identity of fellow masons, it stands to reason that if some of the ducks are NOT masons, then some of the ducks don't know the identity of the others. Which lowers the value of researching their voting history.


So basically you are lashing out killing people willy nilly for the hell of it, without any consideration for A) winning the game, and B) Removing people from the enjoyment of the game for no reason other than your own selfish delight in your own powers.Flawed conclusion based on flawed data.

So to recap, we've got fearmongering. Overstating of long shot odds, and understating of game winning concepts. Misunderstanding or intentional misapplication (you all be the judge, based on Jontom's experience in this game) of the basic rules of this game, and their meaning.

I'll switch my point to Jontom Xire, for the above reasons.

[Dr. Bath]

Llamas! Llamas! Llamamen! Llend me you ears!

PirateMonk hides in pllain sight whilst mocking our noblle Llama King with his Llama llogic. Terriblle!

[Murska]

Aww. Nobody noticed my careful assassination at, by the current rules, only Happyturtle but also, if we use the old ones, at Shadowcaller.

What's with you people, pay ATTENTION! It'd have been noticeable just by quoting my post!

Of course, I'm not really an assassin.

[Talic]

Of course not. :)

[Murska]

You got to admit that if signatures had been counted for assassination like they were in the old rules, my way of the Assassin would've been the best of them all. At least I could not, after a while of thinking, come up with a more effective strategy of destroying my opponents, especially since one apparently cannot whitefy links anymore.

But since now the text has to be in the real post, it's no longer as fun since I can't hide the text properly, anyone quoting it will see it. Now it's just letter games or plaintext usage and thus I switched my role from Assassin to Beast.

[Jontom Xire]

Thinning the herd reduces variables, and makes it harder for Ducks to hide.


So let's take that to it's logical extent: Let's kill all the Llamas and then we'll know exactly who the ducks are!



Let's start with the odds of each assassin blindly picking a distinct and different Llama, in your above example. 2.97%. I suppose that using emotionally evocative phrases and exclamation marks to emphasize the risk of incredible longshot odds wouldn't qualify as fearmongering, now would it? :smalltongue:


It was obviously a worst case example.



Really? By killing a duck, you've increased the margin that the ducks need to win by one, adding one day to the game, and increasing the amount of data you get by one step, while simultaneously reducing the number of players to track.


If you think about it, or if you had read certain of my posts in this forum, you would know that I believe that too many bad guys makes them too easy to find while too few makes them too hard to find. You also say you increase the amount of data you get by one step - how exactly? It's the same situation as if there were one less player and one less duck at the start of the game. Hence you have not increased information AT ALL.

I'm also not sure, given the number of assassins around, that you do increase the game's duration by one day at all.



As the only function of a mason is to know the identity of fellow masons, it stands to reason that if some of the ducks are NOT masons, then some of the ducks don't know the identity of the others. Which lowers the value of researching their voting history.
Flawed conclusion based on flawed data.


This is actually the only valid point you made in your entire post.



So to recap, we've got fearmongering. Overstating of long shot odds, and understating of game winning concepts.

Where? Where? I don't see any fearmongering. I criticised you for acting in your own selfish interests without considering the impact of your actions. That's not fearmongering. Fearmongering wopuld be if I said "We're all going to die horribly if we don't lynch Talic right now!" I didn't say that, I just said that I thought you were selfish and unthinking.

I also didn't overstate longshot odds. I merely proffered a possible scenario that might result from such actions. It was the extreme case, but not that extreme, allowing people to judge the probabilities themselves. I was just showing how relatively close the margins might be, in my opinion.

So to simplify my opinion in a few quick points, consider this:

1) If you assassinate a person on day one or two, that person doesn't get to play what should be one of the most fun and enjoyable games in any sort of meaningful way.
2) The information gained from said assassination is absolutely minimal, regardless of whether the person is a duck or a Llama.
3) The odds are against assassinating a Duck.
4) Even if you do assassinate a Duck, it doesn't help us that much this early in the game.
5) If you just wait a day or two before starting to assassinate people, you will:
A) Have a better idea who might be a duck.
B) Allow us to get more information about who might be a duck by said assassination.
C) Allow that person to have played a little longer.

To me point 5 is the most important. Do you really intend to assassinate one person per day? Really? If you do then you should be lynched immediately just for being an egomaniac determined to ruin as many people's fun as possible in the shortest possible time. If you don't, then why not use the first two or so days as the days when you don't assassinate somebody.


As a quick other note, you may see from other threads that I am more than happy to not lynch someone on the first day. I don't feel it gives us any proper information. Other people disagree and I have to say that I value their opinion and honestly accept the possibility that they may be right. I question my conclusion every time I come across such a situation. But the reason for the daily lynch is simple - it gives us clues to the identities of ducks, whether on day one or subsequent days.

Assassinations don't.

No-one wants to lynch an innocent, but we participate in daily lynches where we don't know who is guilty and who isn't because it is the voting that is useful, NOT the lynch itself (except very occasionally when we get a bad guy who's been voting in a revealing way).

The same cannot be said of assassinations because only a single person carries out the assassination. It is not a process that everyone partakes in. Hence with a lynch you get a dead body and some useful information. With an assassination you just get a dead body. The knowledge of that body's role can be useful, but ONLY when linked to a voting history, and on the first couple of days there will be no useful voting history. And by your own argument, even on subsequent days their will probably be nothing useful about the voting histroy because most ducks don't know other ducks.


Anyway, I now am ending this conversation. If you don't understand what I am trying to convey then it is either because I am too stupid to express myself clearly, or you are too stupid to understand what is being said. Either way I don't wish to get embroiled in yet another argument with someone who doesn't actually counter any of the points I make while either re-iterating their original, already countered, argument or coming up with yet more meaningless points that are trivial to logically refute.

[Murska]

1) If you assassinate a person on day one or two, that person doesn't get to play what should be one of the most fun and enjoyable games in any sort of meaningful way.
2) The information gained from said assassination is absolutely minimal, regardless of whether the person is a duck or a Llama.
3) The odds are against assassinating a Duck.
4) Even if you do assassinate a Duck, it doesn't help us that much this early in the game.
5) If you just wait a day or two before starting to assassinate people, you will:
A) Have a better idea who might be a duck.
B) Allow us to get more information about who might be a duck by said assassination.
C) Allow that person to have played a little longer.

To me point 5 is the most important.

I'd rate point 1 as the most important, actually. I'm for day-1-lynches but I'm against day-1-lynching the same person multiple times at least in a short time span. I deem the fact that someone is lynched from the day 1 lynching a necessary evil, but I don't like robbing someone of their chance to play needlessly.

[Trixie]

1) If you assassinate a person on day one or two, that person doesn't get to play what should be one of the most fun and enjoyable games in any sort of meaningful way.

Hear, hear. It seems that *ahem* certain (not all) persons disliking me for out-of game reasons are trowing grudge points around, despite being show to be wrong [edit] several times :smallsigh:

[edit]

So, I won't oppose it - if you want to kill me, do so, but at least not in all games I'm currently playing, okay? :smallannoyed:

I'd like to keep at least one. You'll be only weakening team good, anyway.

Oh, and guess what - [edit], I took appropriate role to counter [edit] a first day lynch if that happened again. Oh, someone will be sorry that he pointed on me after all :smallamused:

You know, I'm tempted to point at Jontom Xire (to ensure my survival) now, but I'm playing these games for fun, not to ruin enjoyment for everyone else, like certain people :smallsigh:

[edit - you know why]

[UncleWolf]

Using logic, we see that Wolfbane is quoting the movie Red Dawn, clearly indicating that his name should be in red in people's posts.

Also, he is quoting the part of the hidden faction in the movie, much like the ducks here, and clearly he is trying to pass secret messages to other ducks.

Ergo, Wolfbane is a duck.

*points his BassetGunTM at Wolfbane*

Awesome movie. But I had a different reason for posting that.

And besides, I am not a duck.

Red October, standing by.

[Talic]

So let's take that to it's logical extent: Let's kill all the Llamas and then we'll know exactly who the ducks are!
Again, with the absurdity. The logical, and most likely outcome, in your above example, is:
20 players, 8 ducks, 5 assassins.
3 llamas dropped, 2 ducks. Overall balance relatively unchanged.
BUT, now ducks have less choices, making each of their choices more meaningful, so that when the duck is gotten (note, the overall ratio isn't likely to change much, in the long run), the information you get will be compared against a smaller pool of variables, and will thus be MORE significant.

It was obviously a worst case example.And yet, was not marked as a long shot. In fact, it was hyped much like your "kill all the llamas" comment above. Absurdity in an attempt to rouse the masses, as sarcasm and emotional pleas tend to work when dealing with public masses. Unless, of course, they're opposed by fact and common sense. Like it is now.


If you think about it, or if you had read certain of my posts in this forum, you would know that I believe that too many bad guys makes them too easy to find while too few makes them too hard to find. You also say you increase the amount of data you get by one step - how exactly? It's the same situation as if there were one less player and one less duck at the start of the game. Hence you have not increased information AT ALL.See above for why you're wrong. You're looking at the small picture. By this logic, there's no point in ever eliminating a duck, because it's just going to make them that much harder on both sides. No, both sides will take random casualties, and no amount of shading from you will change that. Once the overall numbers are thinned, then people can start looking at what information they do have, and then it does become strategy. The 1st turn point kills someone essentially randomly. So does the 1st turn assassination. If you threw out a random point? You're guilty of the exact same thing. So get outta my cheerios, padre.


I'm also not sure, given the number of assassins around, that you do increase the game's duration by one day at all.Statistical probability points to an even ratio spread in duck to llama death, which means at early stages, assassins don't alter the game much when they're firing blindly.


This is actually the only valid point you made in your entire post.And yet it derails your entire point on the value of statistical probability, and why it's important to keep all those ducks alive until they've had a few turns to kill us llamas. :smallwink:


Where? Where? I don't see any fearmongering. I criticised you for acting in your own selfish interests without considering the impact of your actions. That's not fearmongering. Fearmongering wopuld be if I said "We're all going to die horribly if we don't lynch Talic right now!" I didn't say that, I just said that I thought you were selfish and unthinking.Actually, your long shot pretty much implied exactly that. LOL. Thanks for restating it though.


I also didn't overstate longshot odds. I merely proffered a possible scenario that might result from such actions. It was the extreme case, but not that extreme, allowing people to judge the probabilities themselves. I was just showing how relatively close the margins might be, in my opinion.Not that extreme? 37 to 1 odds, is what you stated. That's not far off of Betting on 00 on a roulette spin. Pretty longshot, if ya ask me. And you marketed it as a valid and plausible outcome, when it was based on statistics and numbers entirely pulled out of your head. How's that for a well thought out, reasoned refute of my tactic?

Take 4 imaginary statistics. Season to taste. Serve another player.

That your recipe for success, Jontom?

So to simplify my opinion in a few quick points, consider this:

1) If you assassinate a person on day one or two, that person doesn't get to play what should be one of the most fun and enjoyable games in any sort of meaningful way.And if you random point them off, the same is true, pot. Or is it kettle?

2) The information gained from said assassination is absolutely minimal, regardless of whether the person is a duck or a Llama.Not much better than turn 2 or 3, judging by the double blind nature of the game.

3) The odds are against assassinating a Duck.But statistical probability will keep the spread more or less balanced, in all likelihood.

4) Even if you do assassinate a Duck, it doesn't help us that much this early in the game.Even if you lynch a duck, it doesn't either. Should we try to lynch a llama, then?

5) If you just wait a day or two before starting to assassinate people, you will:
A) Have a better idea who might be a duck.
B) Allow us to get more information about who might be a duck by said assassination.
C) Allow that person to have played a little longer.Speculative, not based in proof. Not Likely, again, due to double blind. And yes, but people have to be eliminated for the game to go on. Sad, but true.


To me point 5 is the most important. Do you really intend to assassinate one person per day? Really? If you do then you should be lynched immediately just for being an egomaniac determined to ruin as many people's fun as possible in the shortest possible time. If you don't, then why not use the first two or so days as the days when you don't assassinate somebody.Do you intend to vote to lynch someone every day? Really? See above. Everyone wants to be the last one standing. Or at least, on the winning side. The only way to do that is to eliminate people. Make no mistake, and don't try to fool anyone. You'll be trying to eliminate people too. Everyone should be. To claim that I'm the evil bad guy trying to ruin everyone's fun, and you're the poor noble Jontom, trying to be the saviour of fun? Hardly.

As a quick other note, you may see from other threads that I am more than happy to not lynch someone on the first day. I don't feel it gives us any proper information. Other people disagree and I have to say that I value their opinion and honestly accept the possibility that they may be right. I question my conclusion every time I come across such a situation. But the reason for the daily lynch is simple - it gives us clues to the identities of ducks, whether on day one or subsequent days.again, double blind. Hard to get meaningful information when the ducks don't know who they're killing.


Assassinations don't.See above.

No-one wants to lynch an innocent, but we participate in daily lynches where we don't know who is guilty and who isn't because it is the voting that is useful, NOT the lynch itself (except very occasionally when we get a bad guy who's been voting in a revealing way).And by limiting the vote spread, we get a simpler pool of information. Which means it's easier to sort through, and harder to hide foul motives.

The same cannot be said of assassinations because only a single person carries out the assassination. It is not a process that everyone partakes in. Hence with a lynch you get a dead body and some useful information. With an assassination you just get a dead body. The knowledge of that body's role can be useful, but ONLY when linked to a voting history, and on the first couple of days there will be no useful voting history. And by your own argument, even on subsequent days their will probably be nothing useful about the voting histroy because most ducks don't know other ducks.Exactly. If the voting history is less than useful, then your entire argument above holds no water. Because the voting history is useless, then the voting ISN'T useful. If the voting ISN'T useful, then there's next to no difference between a lynch and an assassination. Because the voting is NOT useful, when the bad guys don't have information to act on that would give them away.

Anyway, I now am ending this conversation. If you don't understand what I am trying to convey then it is either because I am too stupid to express myself clearly, or you are too stupid to understand what is being said. Either way I don't wish to get embroiled in yet another argument with someone who doesn't actually counter any of the points I make while either re-iterating their original, already countered, argument or coming up with yet more meaningless points that are trivial to logically refute.Every point countered. And neither of us are stupid. You're trying to pull a fast one, and I'm saying "no". Pretty simple.

And by the past game performance of JX, what does everyone think the "probability" of JX trying to manipulate a win are? Hmm?

[Hyozo]

The frozen llama would like to request that Talic and Jontom Xire stop filling pages with day 1 logic. However,he is still incapable of speech, so he can only watch as their argument moves closer and closer to his line of being stuck pointing in that direction.

[Jontom Xire]

Every point countered.

Actually not. Almost everything you posted to try and counter my points is either countered by something else you posted in the same post, or is countered by something I said in my previous point with the result that you didn't actually counter any of my arguments.

But I'm not going to waste my time pointing out all the flaws in your logic. I will say that half your arguments are specious, trying to pretend that things I said that clearly specifically apply only to day one or two were actually meant to apply to the game throughout. And you clearly don't understand the use of a logical extension to an extreme, but then not many people do.

[Fin]

Talic, because senseless violence is bad!

[UncleWolf]

To those who care. You know who you are.

*takes out an electric guitar and starts to play*

Every time I look in the mirror
All these lines on my face getting clearer
The past is gone
It went by, like dusk to dawn
Isn't that the way
Everybody's got their dues in life to pay

Yeah, I know nobody knows
where it comes and where it goes
I know it's everybody's sin
You got to lose to know how to win

Half my life's
in books' written pages
Lived and learned from fools and
from sages
You know it's true
All the feelings come back to you

Sing with me, sing for the year
Sing for the laughter, sing for the tear
Sing with me, if it's just for today
Maybe tomorrow, the good lord will take you away

Yeah, sing with me, sing for the year
sing for the laughter, sing for the tear
sing with me, if it's just for today
Maybe tomorrow, the good Lord will take you away

Dream On Dream On Dream On
Dream until your dream comes true
Dream On Dream On Dream On
Dream until your dream comes through
Dream On Dream On Dream On
Dream On Dream On
Dream On Dream On, AHHHHHHH!

Sing with me, sing for the year
sing for the laughter, sing for the tear
sing with me, if it's just for today
Maybe tomorrow, the good Lord will take you away
Sing with me, sing for the year
sing for the laughter, sing for the tear
Sing with me, if it's just for today
Maybe tomorrow, the good Lord will take you away......

*puts away the guitar*

(Link to the song (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYojs78Tf9Y))

[Murska]

I'm waiting, in my old school, when the bell begins to chime.
Reflecting, on the past day, and it didn't take much time.

Cuz at three'o'clock, they let me go back home.
The sands of time, for me are running low.
Running low.

When the teachers go make their last rounds,
I take a look through the glass at the school grounds,
at the world calling me so temptingly.

It appears I've made some sort of error,
hard to stop the surmounting terror.
Do I get to go out or will I stay?

Somebody please tell me I'm dreaming,
it's hard to stop from screaming.
The words escape me, when I try to speak.

Tears try to flow, I am reeling,
had to stop myself from fleeing,
is this really the end, do I have to stay?

As my mates start leaving the classroom,
through the door one shouts 'God be with you!'
If there's a god then why won't he let me go?

As I walk, all my chances lost, I feel,
the teachers rally, they want to speak to me.
'Eat my shorts, I'm willing to go away!'

'Mark my words, I believe I've done nothing wrong,
you'll worry when you've let me go,
I shall avenge the affront to my personal freedom!'

'Now, young boy, your time's close at hand,
maybe soon you'll begin to understand,
you're never leaving, the school's your home now.'

Cursed be the teachers' names!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2za92DQOCw

Might've gotten it a bit wrong... :smalltongue:

[UncleWolf]

We seem to have a challenger!

Good. :smallamused:

*counters with metal of his own*

Can't you see what you have wrought here?
Bloody battles will be fought here

May the mountains rise against you
May the forests block your path
May your axes chip and shatter
And know it is my Wrath

I would mount your heads on the bloody spears
Outside your palace gates
And watch as crows peck out your eyes
And your cities are laid to waste

Can't you see what you have wrought here?
A curse on you and all your kin
Bloody battles will be fought here
Await your doom at empire's end

May the Rivers rush to drown you
Nay the earth swallow your hosts
May the winter's wolves surround you
And rip the life from your throats

*howls and a chorus of wolves join in*

(Winter's Wolves by The Sword (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFWoDlygXKM))

[Dallas-Dakota]

I see much to much debate!
Much to long posts!

So in honour of

http://i119.photobucket.com/albums/o135/legolas-maxx/Llama-llama-duckIIpng.png

I will leave no room for debate!
I declare my allegiance!
http://i119.photobucket.com/albums/o135/legolas-maxx/Llama-bunnywithapancake-duck.png



You could say that the llama dominates the picture in size.
You could say that the bunny rides the llama, thus clearly being rider and master.
You could say that the duck is in a hat-position, thus clearly superior.

[Haruki-kun]

*twirls mustache*

"Oh-hoho!"

The chef Llama opens the front doors to the restaurant and flips the "closed" sign so it reads "desolc", which means "open", as opposed to "nepo", which means "closed".

"Welcome! Welcome a-to my restaurant! It's-a-me! The Chef Llama, the best Llama chef in the Llamaverse! May I show you a-some of my skills? Sir? How about you, madam? Or you, sir Jontom?"

[Talic]

Actually not. Almost everything you posted to try and counter my points is either countered by something else you posted in the same post, or is countered by something I said in my previous point with the result that you didn't actually counter any of my arguments.

But I'm not going to waste my time pointing out all the flaws in your logic. I will say that half your arguments are specious, trying to pretend that things I said that clearly specifically apply only to day one or two were actually meant to apply to the game throughout. And you clearly don't understand the use of a logical extension to an extreme, but then not many people do.

Yes. I do understand the taking of a logical extension to an extreme. The vast majority of true and valid logical statements fail when taken to the very extremities. For example, let's take the logical example that gravity causes objects to fall. By that logic, airplanes shouldn't work, balloons shouldn't fly, and space shuttles should never reach orbit. But, because you take one aspect to an extreme, you fail to take into account other unknown variables. And the resulting argument is flawed, incorrect, without merit or worth.

Let's be honest. The most valuable role in a double blind game?

Mason.

In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is king. And in the land of those with no information, the man with some is at an advantage. Moreso than any other role. Because he has a statistically higher probability of guessing a duck.

Look at the 20 player analogy. Let's assume 8 ducks, 12 llamas.
Let's assume that the llamas have 5 masons now.
Let's assume that the ducks have 3 masons.

Well, most players have 19 choices. If you're a llama, you have a 8/19 chance of being right. (42%) If you're a duck, you have a 12/19 chance of being right. (63%)

If you're a mason llama, you can eliminate 4 others. So now you have an 8/15 chance of being right. (53%) If you're a mason duck, you have a 12/17 chance. (70.5%)

So now, you have a leg up on the competition, right off the bat. If you make those good guesses? Then your odds stay good. If you make bad ones? They get better faster. Regardless, as the pool diminishes, as long as masons stay in the game, they get stronger and stronger.

Now that masons know what I am, it is my sincerest hope that they divine a way to identify whether I am a llama or a duck, and make every attempt to use my services to gain additional points at a higher probability of success. I'll point blind if I have to, but I much prefer being aimed by a leader, with more information than I.

That'd be so much better than relying on my own, suboptimal chances. After all, no matter what I am... I'm no mason.


Talic, because senseless violence is bad!

Dear Fin... there is no other kind of violence. So if there is to be violence, let us call a spade a spade, and realize that it's all senseless.

[Selrahc]

Let's be honest. The most valuable role in a double blind game?

Mason.


No. Not really.

For information gathering nothing beats a Seer.

Then there is the fact that masons are reliant on other people. If lots of people pick mason, it has the potential to be a useful role. If only a scant few people do, then it's near useless. If other people die then the role loses usefulness. There are too many external factors in play.

Then there is the fact that in this game, the masons don't even have very good potential as a voting block. So many roles can utterly screw up the voting that even if they can make guesses that are slightly more likely to be right, they don't really have the power to enforce their choice, since a vortexer or Howard could invalidate their points. You have less ability to influence the game as a mason.

[Cristo Meyers]

Hold it hold it hold it!

If there's going to be a singing contest I'm damn well going to be in on it! I've got a reputation to uphold, dammit!

*grabs guitar, but realizes he has no thumbs*

err...AH!

*grabs CD player*

I Must Have Dreamed A Thousand Dreams
Been Haunted By A Million Screams
But I Can Hear The Marching Feet
They're Moving Into The Street

Now, Did You Read The News Today?
They Say The Danger Has Gone Away
But I Can See The Fire's Still Alight
They're Burning Into The Night

There's Too Many Men, Too Many People
Making Too Many Problems
And There's Not Much Love To Go Around
Can't You See This Is A Land Of Confusion?

This Is The World We Live In
And These Are The Hands We're Given
Use Them And Let's Start Trying
To Make It A Place Worth Living In

Oh, Superman, Where Are You Now?
When Everything's Gone Wrong Somehow?
The Men Of Steel, These Men Of Power
Are Losing Control By The Hour

This Is The Time, This Is The Place
So We Look For The Future
But There's Not Much Love To Go Around
Tell Me Why This Is A Land Of Confusion

This Is The World We Live In
And These Are The Hands We're Given
Use Them And Let's Start Trying
To Make It A Place Worth Living In

I Remember Long Ago
When The Sun Was Shining
And All The Stars Were Bright All Through The Night
In The Wake Of This Madness, As I Held You Tight
So Long Ago

I Won't Be Coming Home Tonight
My Generation Will Put It Right
We're Not Just Making Promises
That We Know We'll Never Keep

There's Too Many Men, Too Many People
Making Too Many Problems
And There's Not Much Love To Go Round
Can't You See This Is A Land Of Confusion?

Now, This Is The World We Live In
And These Are The Hands We're Given
Use Them And Let's Start Trying
To Make It A Place Worth Fighting For

This Is The World We Live In
And These Are The Names We're Given
Stand Up And Let's Start Showing
Just Where Our Lives Are Going To

[GoC]

Shadow, not for making him a day one lynch or anything. But if I picked anybody else, I'd get accused of pointing at newbs(who apparently are supposed to be killed off later, even if they are ducks....) or other things and get lynched....

I am not a llama.

[Murska]

Hmm. Of course, only those songs are accepted which, in real life, you can sing and play with at least one instrument, right?

If I had a perfect day,
I would have it start this way,
Open up the fridge and have a tall boy,
Yeah.

Then I'd meet up with my friends,
Head out to the game again,
We don't even really care who wins.

Now excitement seems to grow,
When we're hangin' with the bro's,
When we're chillin' and we pound a case of Stroh's.
Now the game is cool to see,
You can "High 5" on TV,
Count the riot on the one, two, three.
Operation is in sight,
And the field is open wide,
When you break it then you know you're still alive.
If the cops don't make you pay,
And you make your getaway,
Then you know,
That's one fine day.

On that day before we're through,
We could torch a car or two,
Then have ourselves another tall boy,
Yeah.

Water hoses and batons,
That's the real game that's on,
I don't really give a **** who wins.

Now excitement seems to grow,
When we're hangin' with the bro's,
When we're chillin' and we pound a case of Stroh's.
Now the game is cool to see,
You can "High 5" on TV,
Count the riot on the one two three
Operation is in sight,
And the field is open wide,
When you break it then you know you're still alive.
If the cops don't make you pay,
And you make your getaway,
Then you know,
That's one fine day.

I believe it's my god-given right,
To destroy everything in my sight,
Cause it never gets dull, it never gets old,
The only thing it gets is more bold.
Drinkin', Fightin', goin to the game,
In our world it's a way to stay sane,
If your asking me,
To have it my way, I'd say that's,
One fine day.

Now excitement seems to grow,
When we're hangin' with the bro's,
When we're chillin' and we pound a case of Stroh's.
Now the game is cool to see,
You can "High 5" on TV,
Count the riot on the one, two, three.
Operation is in sight,
And the field is open wide,
When you break it then you know you're still alive.
If the cops don't make you pay,
And you make your getaway,
Then you know,
That's one fine day.
Yeah,
Then you know,
That it's a one fine day.

[Dr. Bath]

I am not a llama.

I knew it!

@Selrahc: Considering all the seers could actually be fools in this game, having the seer role may or may not actually help in this game (they probably will, but still). Masons are most useful in conjunction with a seer, anyway.

[Reinholdt]

Singing? Ahem. Memememe.
Spoilered for your convenience.

I love the mountains.
I love the clear blue skies.
I love big bridges.
I love when great whites fly.
I love the whole world.
And all its sights and sounds.

Boom De Yada!
Boom De Yada!
Boom De Yada!
Boom De Yada!

I love the ocean .
I love real dirty things.
I love to go fast.
I love Egyptian kings.
I love the whole world
And all its craziness

Boom De Yada!
Boom De Yada!
Boom De Yada!
Boom De Yada!

I love tornadoes.
I love arachnids.
I love hot magma.
I love the giant squids.
I love the whole world.
It's such a brilliant place.

Boom De Yada!
Boom De Yada!
Boom De Yada!
Boom De Yada!
Boom De Yada!
Boom De Yada!
Boom De Yada!
Boom De Yada!

[Cristo Meyers]

Gah! Reinholdt dropped a Boom on me!

Eat Stone Sour! Come, chorus, to me!


Wish I was...to dead to cry
Self-affliction fades
Stones to throw at my creator
Masochist to which I cater

You don't need to bother
I don't need to be
I'll keep slipping farther

And once I'm done,
I won't let go 'til it bleeds

Wish I was...to dead to care
If indeed I can at all
Never had the voice to protest
So you fed me **** to digest

I wish I had a reason
My flaws are open season
For this I gave up trying
One good turn deserves my dying

You don't need to bother
I don't need to be
I'll keep slipping farther

And once I'm done,
I won't let go 'til it bleeds

Wish I'd died...instead of lived
A zombie hides my face
Shell forgotten with its memories
Diaries left with cryptic entires

You don't need to bother
I don't need to be (I don't need to be...)
I'll keep slipping farther

And once I'm done,
I won't let go 'til it bleeds

You don't need to bother (You don't need to bother...)
I don't need to be (I don't need to be.....)
I'll keep slipping farther

And once I'm done, (Once I hold on...)
I won't let down my deceit...

[PirateMonk]

It strikes me that using JX's arguments would be great cover for an assassin.

Just saying.

[UncleWolf]

*starts to play a song*






















*bows when he is done*

(Orion -METALLICA (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzMJhOwBLqw) )

[Murska]

Aegnor steps up and, seeing Wolfbane's performance, takes out his guitar.

* http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55nAwmVLQSk * happens.

[Reinholdt]

Reinholdt absolutely refuses to be outdone by these wannabes.

He starts singing again (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHg5SJYRHA0).

[Dallas-Dakota]

Well atleast I was original and drew something! Instead of debating and quoting lyrics or linking to songs....

And then everybody ignored me.

I will see if I can get into LLD II. Or not. Sadly, most likely not.

[happyturtle]

The Rainbow Lemon Llama decides to join in (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STF79j6pPI8&feature=related):


If all the raindrops were lemon drops and gumdrops?
Oh what a rain that would be.
Standing outside with my mouth open wide.
Ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh.
If all the raindrops were lemon drops and gumdrops?
Oh what a rain that would be.

If all the snowflakes were candy bars and milkshakes?
Oh what a snow that would be.
Standing outside with my mouth open wide.
Ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh.
If all the snowflakes were candy bars and milkshakes?
Oh what a snow that would be.

If all the sun beams were bubble gum and ice cream?
Oh what a sun that would be.
Standing outside with my mouth open wide.
Ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh-ahh.
If all the sun beams were bubble gum and ice cream?
Oh what a sun that would be.

[Lamech]

Clealy Neither Tallic, nor Jontom Xire has done much maths on this whole "who do assassin's help win?", so until someone does you'll have too chalk it up to a differance of opinion. Of course, if someone runs the numbers or perhaps many simulations they may be able to provide some useful information, but right now I don't see anyone having done that.

Of course one of you could have an assassin silence your opponent.:smalltongue: (Talic maytar your cause)

P.S. I did actually run a really crappy simulation of who wins if every kill is random and the winner is checked after each death. Villagers won 625 times, and wolves won 376 times. The number of wolves was 6 out of 20 players. I'm going to attempt to write a much better simulation.

[Griever]

The duckish-looking llama looked down upon the chaos erupting below him.

Aemoh accused after Alarra's accusations of Allysian's altruism towards Ariko.
Billtodamax begged Banjo for his break to have brevity.
Catseye called Cristo "cute kitty".
Dallas-Dakota defenstrated Darkcomet while Deathslayer and Dr. Bath dueled with damp Dragoon dragons.
Evnafets eated enviously.
Fin frowned fallaciously at Fleeing.
GoC denied global gregarious llamaness.
Hap_hazard heartily hurdled happyturtle's hedgehogs as Haruki-kun headed home, hampered by Helgraf.
Iceddragons 'id in 'is igloo, guv.
Jontom Xire jaunted jovially for jests.
Lamech lamented his lack of a long sword, leaving Lex-kat llama logic.
Murska maliciously marked his masterplan's maligned monstrosities to Mustiado's Maneuver. Mordokai had been mashed by mother earth, due to gravity.
PirateMonk pirated partial monotonous music.
RadikalSkippy rashly rallied, launching valor mode as he ran towards Recaiden. Reinholdt reloads.
Selrahc shoots Stu42 at Shadowcaller, who is shoved by Szilard, his savior.
Shadow smiles.
Talix takes time to target Trixie, a telling tale. The Valiant Turtle (Raldor!!) tackles ThePhantom before they table it and take the television.
Uncle Festy unearths his undead self, unambiguously.
Wolfbane walks wearily with his wet willy weapon.
xNadia exacerbates excessively, exchanging exclusive executive examinations for Excel.
Zar Peter's zoo had many zany zebra, Zeb is Zorro.

[UncleWolf]

I honestly don't want to know what weapon you are talking about. :smalltongue:

[Talic]

Nah, that's assassin speak. What better way to hide a name than amidst every legal name choice in the game? All that means is you can't predict his target.

Of course, it could be a bluff... who knows? Either way, I don't go out of my way to target assassins. My choices are determined by RNG... Currently. Though I'm not averse to being a hired llama-gun. I'm just a llama, in search of a vision.

[Shadow]

P.S. I did actually run a really crappy simulation of who wins if every kill is random and the winner is checked after each death. Villagers won 625 times, and wolves won 376 times. The number of wolves was 6 out of 20 players. I'm going to attempt to write a much better simulation.

Nerd.
:biggrin:

[happyturtle]

Jontom Xire because I was totally convinced by all that logic stuff that I didn't read.

[billtodamax]

Actually there were a few flaws in both of their arguements, but I'd be arguing for both sides if I joined in.

[happyturtle]

You're right. Talic was definitely more convincing.

[GoC]

I am not a rabbit.

[Recaiden]

I am not a rabbit.

This proves nothing GoC.

[Nychta]

I point at Talic

[Lamech]

I ran a better simulation. Umm... killing random people will probably not work. So Jontom is probably right, assuming I made no mistakes, and luck didn't skew hard one way...


Nerd.
:biggrin:
Yeah...

[Talic]

I ran a better simulation. Umm... killing random people will probably not work. So Jontom is probably right, assuming I made no mistakes, and luck didn't skew hard one way...


Yeah...

I've ran the numbers. Entropy favors the underdog. Unless the number of masons and their allegiance is known, there are simply too many variables.

However, multiple assassins using their ability will not alter the ratio of llamas to ducks, on average. Simple probability shows that whenever someone's firing blind, you generally have the kill spread match closely to the ratio of remaining players.

Also bear in mind... What does a voting record do? It shows you what he/she aimed at, which is really useful, if your target knew who he/she was aiming at.

If the victim is firing just as blindly as you? It tells you nothing.

[UncleWolf]

Here is something I hope the ladies enjoy as much as I do. :smallwink:


Let's get naughty

Come a little closer, baby
It's all right
Maybe we can start a little fire tonight
Pull the shades, lock the door
Don't waste my time, girl
You'd better be sure
Cause I know what I want
And I know how to get it
So baby if you're ready to play

Let's get naughty naughty
Down & dirty
Naughty naughty
Oh I like it that way

That dress you're wearing makes you look so cute
But girl you'd look better in your birthday suit
Take my hand, feel my love
Tonight's the night wer're gonna shake it up, shake it up

Cause I know what you want
And you're gonna get it
Baby if you're ready to play

Let's get naughty naughty
Down & dirty
Naughty naughty
Oh I like it that way

Cause you know what I want
And I'm gonna get it
Baby if your ready to play
Step this way - naughty naughty
Why don't you slide on over here baby?
Yeah that's it
Don't worry I won't bite ya - not yet
Why don't we could uh....
What kind of girl do you think I am?

*slap*

Heehee

Let's get naughty naughty
Down & dirty
Naughty naughty
Oh I like it that way

Let's get naughty naughty
Down & dirty
Naughty naughty
Oh I like it, I like it
I like it that way

I like it that way

Uh huh

Naughty naughty

Naughty Naughty by Danger Danger (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgvoSwUoaQE)

<.<

You know, I think I am actually going to be slapped soon.

[TFT]

I really need to start keeping spreadsheets for bigger games...
I don't know what the vote tally is, but Trixie for the random.

[billtodamax]

I think it's time for me to join in on the karoke.

Spoilered for convenience. Not for the faint of heart! You have been warned...


It's close to midnight and something evil's lurking in the dark
Under the moonlight, you see a sight that almost stops your heart
You try to scream but terror takes the sound before you make it
You start to freeze as horror looks you right between the eyes
You're paralyzed

'Cause this is thriller, thriller night
And no one's gonna save you from the beast about strike
You know it's thriller, thriller night
You're fighting for your life inside a killer, thriller tonight

You hear the door slam and realize there's nowhere left to run
You feel the cold hand and wonder if you'll ever see the sun
You close your eyes and hope that this is just imagination, girl!
But all the while you hear the creature creeping up behind
You're out of time

'Cause this is thriller, thriller night
There ain't no second chance against the thing with forty eyes, girl
Thriller, thriller night
You're fighting for your life inside a killer, thriller tonight

Night creatures calling, the dead start to walk in their masquerade
There's no escaping the jaws of the alien this time
(They're open wide)
This is the end of your life

They're out to get you, there's demons closing in on every side
They will possess you unless you change that number on your dial
Now is the time for you and I to cuddle close together, yeah
All through the night I'll save you from the terror on the screen
I'll make you see

That this is thriller, thriller night
'Cause I can thrill you more than any ghost would ever dare try
Thriller, thriller night
So let me hold you tight and share a
Killer, diller, chiller, thriller here tonight

'Cause this is thriller, thriller night
Girl, I can thrill you more than any ghost would ever dare try
Thriller, thriller night
So let me hold you tight and share a killer, thriller, ow!

(I'm gonna thrill ya tonight)
Darkness falls across the land
The midnight hour is close at hand
Creatures crawl in search of blood
To terrorize y'alls neighborhood

I'm gonna thrill ya tonight, ooh baby
I'm gonna thrill ya tonight, oh darlin'
Thriller night, baby, ooh!

The foulest stench is in the air
The funk of forty thousand years
And grizzly ghouls from every tomb
Are closing in to seal your doom

And though you fight to stay alive
Your body starts to shiver
For no mere mortal can resist
The evil of the thriller

[Ariko]

An entirely random point at..Biltodamax, today.

[Murska]

I'm not sure everyone has followed the guideline of being able to sing and perform on at least one instrument the songs he posts, but hey, who cares. :smallsmile:

I'll be trying to do that for as long as I can.


I am a man who walks alone
And when Im walking a dark road
At night or strolling through the park

When the light begins to change
I sometimes feel a little strange
A little anxious when its dark

Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a constant fear that someones always near
Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a phobia that someones allways there

Have you run your fingers down the wall
And have you felt your neck skin crawl
When youre searching for the light?

Sometimes when youre scared to take a look
At the corner of the room
Youve sensed that somethings watching you

Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a constant fear that someones always near
Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a phobia that someones allways there

Have you ever been alone at night
Thought you heard footsteps behind
And turned around and no ones there?

And as you quicken up your pace
You find it hard to look again
Because youre sure theres someone there

Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a constant fear that someones always near
Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a phobia that someones allways there

Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
fear of the dark, fear of the dark!
Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
fear of the dark, fear of the dark!

Watching horror films the night before
Debating wiches and folklore
The unkown troubles on your mind
Maybe your mind is playing tricks
You sense and suddenly eyes fix
On dancing shadows from behind

Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a constant fear that someones always near
Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a phobia that someones allways there

When Im walking a dark road
I am a man who walkes alone

[Jontom Xire]

Yes. I do understand the taking of a logical extension to an extreme. The vast majority of true and valid logical statements fail when taken to the very extremities. For example, let's take the logical example that gravity causes objects to fall. By that logic, airplanes shouldn't work, balloons shouldn't fly, and space shuttles should never reach orbit.

Aaaaaannnddd ... all wrong.

1) Gravity doesn't cause objects to fall. Additionally stating it is not a logical statement but an imprecise statement of fact.
2) By taking the statement to it's extreme you prove the invalidity of the statement and in the process prove the value of a logical extension to an extreme while simultaneously trying to prove it's lack of value and also thus prove your inability to make a logical conclusion accurately. This is why I refuse to enter into a logical debate with you - because you cannot. You lack the skills and the knowledge.

In contrast to your statement I would say:

All correct logical statements are true at all times even when taken to any extreme. If they cease to be true at such an extreme, (and here is why extending to the extremes is so useful) then they are not in fact correct logical statements.

[happyturtle]

And therefore, I can clearly not choose the glass in front of me!

Happyturtlehappyturtlehappyturtle

[hap_hazard]

Point at Ariko.

065101109111104
066097110106111049057056053
067097116115101121101050049050049
068097108108097115045068097107111116097
069118110097102101116115
070105110
071111067
104097112095104097122097114100
073099101100100114097103111110115
074111110116111109032088105114101

[Murska]

SWYgeW91IFJFQUxMWSB3ZW50IHRocm91Z2ggdGhlIHRyb3VibG UgdG8gdHJhbnNsYXRlIHRoaXMsIEkgZ290IG9uZSB0aGluZyB0 byB0ZWxsIHlvdS4NCg0KQW5kIEkgd29uJ3Qu

Yeah.

[happyturtle]

*shakes fist at Murska*

He got me there. Can someone bane me please? :smalleek:

[Shadowcaller]

..........
(That counts as a post right Happy?) :smalltongue:

[happyturtle]

The Dead-Lemon-Walking thinks that looks like an awful duckish trick there. *narrows eyes at SC*

[GoC]

Jontom Xire's most recent post is correct.

[happyturtle]

Actually, never mind. I've voided Murska tonight, so he can't hurt me. :smallbiggrin:

[Alarra]

*considers briefly pointing at Jontom or Talic, *shrugs* Points at Valiant Turtle instead*

[Lamech]

I've ran the numbers. Entropy favors the underdog. Unless the number of masons and their allegiance is known, there are simply too many variables.

However, multiple assassins using their ability will not alter the ratio of llamas to ducks, on average. Simple probability shows that whenever someone's firing blind, you generally have the kill spread match closely to the ratio of remaining players.

Also bear in mind... What does a voting record do? It shows you what he/she aimed at, which is really useful, if your target knew who he/she was aiming at.

If the victim is firing just as blindly as you? It tells you nothing.
Huh? There are too many variable's? And you "ran the numbers" Mason's on the wolves have been acounted for on by simply assuming the wolves kill at random. Except they can't kill fellow wolves. I assumed that mason's on the villager's team wouldn't be able to affect much if everyone was killed with out time to gather info. Look... it may not be conclusive, but its good enough for me to say that we probably should gather info before mass random killings.:smallmad:

[Talic]

Huh? There are too many variable's? And you "ran the numbers" Mason's on the wolves have been acounted for on by simply assuming the wolves kill at random. Except they can't kill fellow wolves. I assumed that mason's on the villager's team wouldn't be able to affect much if everyone was killed with out time to gather info. Look... it may not be conclusive, but its good enough for me to say that we probably should gather info before mass random killings.:smallmad:

1st: Taking large groups of people at random is what's known in surveys as "sampling". It tends to closely match the composition. It doesn't majorly affect the game, as the ratios remain unchanged.

But, the lowered number of variables makes it easier to sort through the highly confusing information set that this WW game has.

I mean really, what information? You're gonna get the voting history of someone who was taking shots in the dark? How's that any different than what you were doing in the first place? I mean really.

When nobody knows who's who... Then nobody's voting record matters worth a hill of beans. Each member has to be ferreted out one at a time... based on their post. NOT their vote. Both sides will have friendly fire. Both sides are doing this.

Because knowing all the information of a random sampling (which is what everyone's vote is)? That's knowing that you've got another set of meaningless data.

But gather that info. See what it does for you. My guess? Precious little.

One wolf won't lead you to others. The wolf strength is the wolf weakness. They knew each other, and that knowledge could be used against them.

The dead can't betray their secrets... That's the argument against early lynching/assassinating.

Neither can the ignorant. And every one of us, save the masons, is ignorant of any information about anyone else.

[billtodamax]

I'm not sure everyone has followed the guideline of being able to sing and perform on at least one instrument the songs he posts, but hey, who cares. :smallsmile:

I'll be trying to do that for as long as I can.


I am a man who walks alone
And when Im walking a dark road
At night or strolling through the park

When the light begins to change
I sometimes feel a little strange
A little anxious when its dark

Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a constant fear that someones always near
Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a phobia that someones allways there

Have you run your fingers down the wall
And have you felt your neck skin crawl
When youre searching for the light?

Sometimes when youre scared to take a look
At the corner of the room
Youve sensed that somethings watching you

Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a constant fear that someones always near
Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a phobia that someones allways there

Have you ever been alone at night
Thought you heard footsteps behind
And turned around and no ones there?

And as you quicken up your pace
You find it hard to look again
Because youre sure theres someone there

Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a constant fear that someones always near
Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a phobia that someones allways there

Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
fear of the dark, fear of the dark!
Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
fear of the dark, fear of the dark!

Watching horror films the night before
Debating wiches and folklore
The unkown troubles on your mind
Maybe your mind is playing tricks
You sense and suddenly eyes fix
On dancing shadows from behind

Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a constant fear that someones always near
Fear of the dark, fear of the dark
I have a phobia that someones allways there

When Im walking a dark road
I am a man who walkes alone


Hey, I can play Thriller on the piano.

[Murska]

And sing, of course?

Cliffs of Dover was a bit of a stretch for me. I can 'sing' it completely and perfectly, of course, but I can only play it on GH3 controller, expert, hyperspeed 2. :smallbiggrin:

[Lex-Kat]

I'll point at Jontom Xire, because he and Talic are giving me a headache with all there logic on day 1.

[billtodamax]

but of course. [creepily high MJ voice]OW![/creepily high MJ voice]

[ThePhantom]

I'll point at Jontom Xire, because he and Talic are giving me a headache with all there logic on day 1.

Someone else with my viewpoint, Jontom Xire, you are causing too much confusion for me.

[Helgraf]

:ignores big arguing walls of text:

The Valiant Turtle

[Supagoof]

Aaaand after many hours...day 1 ends.

The llama's, with confusion and mystery clouding their judgements, began casting accusations upon each other.

He's a duck.
She's a duck.
A duck duck here, a duck duck there, here a duck, there a duck, every where a duck duck
GOOSE!
I have pancakes, but am not a bunny.
Super-human strength doesn't really apply in llama land.
For all your hoofing needs, visit Lla-mart. The silliest prices, guaranteed!
Yeah, I think wait....what?

But at the end of the day, a majority could not be met. And like the great spirit Shadow-ladow-ding-dong once advised everyone, the law is much kinder if we reach a 25% agreement on who to lynch in order to lynch. So the llama's, despite picking a few not so lucky people for accusations, didn't really agree enough on one culprit to hang.

So as the night settled in, the llamas each went back to the castle to their rooms. Many locking their doors, and not one trusting another.

Summary:
Not enough of a percentage was met for lynching. Lynchings will happen when 25% of the points are for one player. Days will end early if 50% of the points or more are for one player. Yes, we dug this from the archives. And no - no one was lynched today.

Assassination attempts made today will take place tonight - baring any baning or voiding to prevent them. All players with night actions, please send them in.

Day 1 ends. Night 1 Begins (and will probably end sometime Monday because it'll take a while to make sure we get it all correct :smallwink:.)

[happyturtle]

Hmm, should I bane Shadow or Murska tonight? :smallconfused:

[Murska]

I'm already being baned by three people, assassinated by four, wolfkilled, voided by five and done other, unspeakable things to by two.

[Dallas-Dakota]

Don't forget, you're getting nommed by me.

Hmmm, flaming green eye....

[UncleWolf]

Alright guys, I'm taking bets.

*puts a gold coin on the table*

I bet that 5 people will be killed tonight.

[happyturtle]

I'll go high. 8 people.

*slides one gold colored coin across the table*

http://www.freelancealot.co.uk/round_table/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/pound_coin.jpg

BTW, if you think you're in danger, please contact me, and I'll see about getting my fellow masons to arrange protection.

[Murska]

I'll bet ten pieces of eight on three dead.

[Cristo Meyers]

I'm already being baned by three people, assassinated by four, wolfkilled, voided by five and done other, unspeakable things to by two.

I TOLD YOU NOT TO SPEAK OF IT!

..er...I mean...

...5 shekels on 4 dead.

[UncleWolf]

I TOLD YOU NOT TO SPEAK OF IT!


Oh, so you were the other one from the party last night. I thought so.

[Dallas-Dakota]

I put a golden coin on both 1, 7 and 13 dead.

And a cookie on 5 dead.

[Reinholdt]

I'll bet three kitties on three dead.
This bet for me. Though I already made it in chats, I'll stand by it now.

[Atreyu the Masked LLama]

Sorry, my PM box filled up. Turns out leaving it at 95% full when going to a friend's for the weekend was a bad idea.

It has more space now.

[Fleeing Coward]

50 of someone else's gold on 0 dead and we all live happily ever after :smallbiggrin:

[Talic]

I'll put 50 gold on 4 de....

WAIT A MINUTE!? WHERE'D MY 50 GOLD GO?

[billtodamax]

I'll go conservative. My left foot on 3 dead. Maybe 2.

[Talic]

I'll go conservative. My left foot on 3 dead. Maybe 2.

So... you have 2 left feet?

[Reinholdt]

So... you have 2 left feet?
*thinks Talic should keep a closer eye on his valuables*

[Talic]

Hey now! I thought we were talking about feet, not... valuables.

[billtodamax]

the "maybe 2" was actually a guess of how many died. My official bet is still on 3, though.

[UncleWolf]

Alright, and the bets are as follows...

Wolfbane: 5 deaths
Happyturtle: 8 deaths
Murska: 2 deaths
Cristo: 4 deaths
DD the Cookiemonster:6 deaths
Reinholdt: 3 deaths
Fleeing Coward: 0 deaths.
Talic: 4 deaths Sorry, we need some form of payment. Find some and then I will count your vote.
billtodamax: 3 deaths

The Prize:
52 gold coins(possibly a fake coin too)
3 kittens
A left foot
10 pieces of eight
5 shekels
1 cookie

@V: And that is taken care of.

[Murska]

Hmpf. I chose 3 first in-thread. And now all these others are picking the same. :smallannoyed:

I'll switch my bet to 2 then.

[Dallas-Dakota]

Blegh.
6 deaths then.

[UncleWolf]

Blegh.
6 deaths then.

Taken care of. Any other changes?

[GoC]

Can I bet one tied up superheroine on 5 deaths?

[UncleWolf]

Wolfbane: 5 deaths
Happyturtle: 8 deaths
Murska: 2 deaths
Cristo: 4 deaths
DD the Cookiemonster:6 deaths
Reinholdt: 3 deaths
Fleeing Coward: 0 deaths.
Talic: 4 deaths Sorry, we need some form of payment. Find some and then I will count your vote.
billtodamax: 3 deaths
GoC: 5 deaths

The Prize:
52 gold coins(possibly a fake coin too)
3 kittens
A left foot
10 pieces of eight
5 shekels
1 cookie
1 tied up superheroine.

[Lamech]

I bet one giant sword on seven deaths.

[Selrahc]

I'll bet forged versions of every item that has been bet so far on 1 death.

[Helgraf]

I bet Reinholdt's playa status on 9 kills.

[Dr. Bath]

I bet what is in.... this box! on 4 deaths.

[billtodamax]

The box, the box! What could possibly be in it? I. Must. Have. It.

[Supagoof]

As darkness creeps over the land, many Llamas lie awake, peering out from under their covers. At the stroke of midnight, shots rings out.

BLAM!
PTANG!
PTANG!
PTANG!
FWOOMPF!
FWOOMPF!

Yes!
No!
Auugh!
Who messed with my ammo?
I've been shot!

Cries of frustration and success are heard. Elsewhere in the castle dungeon.

So, Wolfbane...is it? You will tell us where the weapons of mass llamastruction are hidden!

Never! I'll never help you. Go back to your pond! *spits*

Then, monsieur Wolfbane, You are of no further use to us. Us ducks will have our day!

Clarence....

Screams of agony are heard throughout the halls of the castle. When the llamas arrive to their origin, they only find a gruesome site. Wolfbane is found, dipped in tar and feathered.

Summary!

Ariko was killed by an assassin. Ariko was Howard the Llama! and was on team Llama. Forensic Llamatists could not determine if the shot came from the observatory or the grassy knoll.

The ducks voted to kill Wolfbane. Wolfbane was a seer/fool. and was on team Llama.

Vortexing is in play today.
Results of scries will arrive in PM boxes shortly.

Day 2 Begins.

[UncleWolf]

Mer**!

Pardon my french. :smalltongue:


Now I get to take all of the items to my death!

>.>

*unties the Super Heroine and kittens*

Yeah, you'd only starve to death, we wouldn't want that, so skedaddle.

[banjo1985]

Back and pointing at Reinholdt because I have no intention of reading through six pages of Day 1 logic at this time of night. :smalltongue:

...Plus he's a playa. :smallbiggrin:

[happyturtle]

Looking closely at the player list, I'd have to say the ones most likely to have killed Wolfbane are Shadowcaller, Reinholdt, Murska, or Happyturtle.

I hate wordgames though, so someone else will have to go hunting through day one to find out who killed Ariko.

[Szilard]

I'll just vote happyturtle.

[Lamech]

Aww... I lost my fancy sword. Now I need to get a new avatar.:smallfrown: (Talic)

[happyturtle]

Oh wait. I just got my scry results. Murska's a llama beast. You can scratch him off the suspect list.

[Darkcomet]

Hm. I don't know about that logic, but Banjo1985 pointed at Ariko yesterday...

And Ariko was killed by an assassin.

[Uncle Festy]

Aww... I lost my fancy sword. Now I need to get a new avatar.:smallfrown: (Talic)

<.<
>.>
That was epically obvious.

[Shadow]

Awww, dammit Festy!
Why'd you go and post that, thereby ruining my blackmail attempt?
:furious:

[Lamech]

Uncle Festy, I see my plan is working great.:smallwink:

[Uncle Festy]

Awww, dammit Festy!
Why'd you go and post that, thereby ruining my blackmail attempt?
:furious:

:smalleek:
v.v
Um.
Sorry?


Uncle Festy, I see my plan is working great.:smallwink:

… then I have absolutely no clue what your plan is. :smallconfused:

[happyturtle]

Even if I don't know it, I'm almost certainly an evil scheming horror. Just ask Wolfbane. I mean, if you're a necromancer and all and can talk to the dead. If not, ask Shadowcaller. Or ds7. They'll tell you.

Oh wait, ds7 is another suspect too. *nodnod*

[Recaiden]

happyturtle is always an evil scheming horror. But she could be one on our side. Shadow, though, is always your enemy. Of course, GoC and Hap_hazard are always suspicious. But I really don't have enough evidence any which way. So I'll point at Darkcomet

[Shadow]

What did I do?
I mean this game. What did I do this game?
:smallwink:

[Uncle Festy]

<.<
Get really mad at me?
:smalltongue:

[evnafets]

Sorry, had a deluge of work run across my desk this week. :smallfurious: (shadow)Shadow

No, I'm not an assassin, but why should I let everybody else have all the fun?

evnafets points at Shadow, because its Day 2, and by the rule of Shadow, he is obviously a Duck. :smallbiggrin:

[Griever]

lamech, for being part of some evil scheme.

[Nychta]

Sorry, had a deluge of work run across my desk this week. :smallfurious: (shadow)Shadow

No, I'm not an assassin, but why should I let everybody else have all the fun?

evnafets points at Shadow, because its Day 2, and by the rule of Shadow, he is obviously a Duck. :smallbiggrin:

I thought that was day 3. Wasn't it?

I point at evnafets for confusing me. Even though it's really not your fault at all.

[Dallas-Dakota]

Shadow, because somehow, don't ask me how, I have a feeling he's gonna break this game...

And *quickly noms the cookie and gambles away the cold coin before Murska can have it*

[Talic]

The interior office of llama defense and communications drafted a response to the protracted and forced use of distateful logic in the previous day previously. To Jontom Xire, the message follows, in its original and unedited form:


A job, not my joy. My, a axe in my rear. If ever, a hatchet were buried, should it not be in my back? I tire, expire, no more logic. Verily, Llama Logic makes logical Llamas sleepy, but logical Llamas make logic drudge on. (evnafets) Oh, the drudgery, give me release! If, in the end, I am not standing, what is the loss? Life is but a stage, and I am a fool. I am lame, choosing to be who chooses who lives and dies, but such is what I chose to be. I am the fool I've made myself into.

Ok, let the word games begin. Deathslayer, you found a name in my last one... Will you find one here? Shouldn't be that hard. I've hidden 4 in there.

EDIT: As an incentive to EVERYONE, if you find your name in my message, and PM it to me, I won't select your name for my assassin attempt.

[Skippy]

Pika pika piká! Pika pika pikapi pika chuuuuuuu!

(Translation: evnafets must be a duck, because he invoked the Rule of Shadow in the second day, when everybody knows it only applies since Day 3!)

[Jontom Xire]

That was totally lame, Talic. I can't be bothered to work out the exact spacing you used, but there's a 'J' near the start and enough of the other letters in my name to write it out several times over.

Just out of curiosity, how old are you? 13? Seems about right, somehow.

[Talic]

That was totally lame, Talic. I can't be bothered to work out the exact spacing you used, but there's a 'J' near the start and enough of the other letters in my name to write it out several times over.

Just out of curiosity, how old are you? 13? Seems about right, somehow.

30, actually. But thanks for the random insult. And I think I used 25 or so letters of the alphabet... Most several times. But if there's a spacing, there's a pattern. If you think that your name is in there, look for the pattern. If you find that you're in my post, and you show me... Then you're safe. I love the concept, where if you are good enough, you are safe. Consider it the DM in me. The whole point of the assassin role here is the word game. I love me some word game. I even go so far as to advertise it. And to offer others incentive to play. Because it's fun. Heck, by day 5? I intend to draft a letter with everyone's name hidden, and I mean actually hidden, in it. These? These are warmups.

EDIT: Incidentally... why would I point at you and assassinate you in the same turn?

[Trixie]

[sorry, doublepost]

[Shadow]

I find two problems with Talic's post.
First: You can't quote the quote, so any attempt at a kill is wasted.
Second: I point at Talic for outright claiming to be an assassin.... nay, flaunting it.

Whadayasay kids? Let's kill us some assassin today!

[GoC]

Of course, GoC ... always suspicious.
Nice.:smallbiggrin:

I am not a baner.

I point at Shadow.

[Talic]

1) You don't need to be able to quote the quote. It just needs to be hidden in the message.

2) I flaunted my status day 1. Day 2, I'm flaunting my rules... Which are:
{table]A | If I list you on a day, I won't list you again until I've listed everyone else.
B | If you detect my attempt on you, I will not use it. You are safe this pass.
C | Don't go after Shadow before Day 3.
D | If I have more than one person in my list, I will give one random person a choice, via PM. I will send them one of the names, and the location in my message that it's hidden. From there? They get to choose whether you live or die.[/table]

Kill me if you will. Before you do, though? Ask, would you like to receive the chance to save a man from an assassin? Every day, someone will get that choice.

EDIT: Players that are currently safe:Happyturtle (listed day 1)
Shadow (it's before day 3)

[Jontom Xire]

Just for the hell of it:


A job, not my joy. My, a axe in my rear. If ever, a hatchet were buried, should it not be in my back? I tire, expire, no more logic. Verily, Llama Logic makes logical Llamas sleepy, but logical Llamas make logic drudge on. Oh, the drudgery, give me release! If, in the end, I am not standing, what is the loss? Life is but a stage, and I am a fool. I am lame, choosing to be who chooses who lives and dies, but such is what I chose to be. I am the fool I've made myself into.

Is the only chopice (except perhaps the last "e") that makes any sense, yet the spacing don't make any sense either. However you definitely have hidden my name in there or you would have written "an axe" instead of "a axe". That or you're really bad at grammar, and I don't believe that.

It's possible you reversed the order of some letters, but I don't think you did.

[Talic]

Just for the hell of it:



Is the only chopice (except perhaps the last "e") that makes any sense, yet the spacing don't make any sense either. However you definitely have hidden my name in there or you would have written "an axe" instead of "a axe". That or you're really bad at grammar, and I don't believe that.

It's possible you reversed the order of some letters, but I don't think you did.

I did not reverse the order. And you're close. You got many, many letters right... After all that work, I'd hate to point at you.

Which letters did you bold?
2,3,5,7,11,13,17,19,23,24...

The vast majority of those have something in common. Find it, and you'll find which letter is wrong.

EDIT: Oh, and you'll find that almost every misspelling is intentional, to make the names fit a specific pattern. I am not possessed with horrendous grammatical skills.

[happyturtle]

See what I mean? No one ever wants to lynch girls.

[Talic]

Cause most girls are content to watch and smile while the guys hit each other with sticks, lol.

[billtodamax]

Well all but one is a prime... look at the primes.

[Dr. Bath]

No no. I'm good with lynching girls. Happyturtle has thus far claimed all but the mayor thus far (maybe vortexer? who knows) but that doesn't prove which side you're on. She's obviously a witch!

(also: I'm away for a week, I expected internet access, but that looks unlikely. Please don't autolynch me)

[Talic]

Well all but one is a prime... look at the primes.

And now, Jontom is safe. The position of his name was such that you would find his name if you only looked at the first 10 prime numbers, in order. (my source for prime number definition was Wikipedia, which excludes 1 as a prime).

[Murska]

Ha! I won the bet! Every single item, mine!

...except that people already stole some. :smallfrown:

Anyway, I still got quite a lot of stuff to bet for the following nights. :smallsmile:

[Selrahc]

I'm going to point at Happyturtle. But since my point doesn't actually do anything bad, I'm also going to set her on fire. Even though they didn't actually do that to witches.

[happyturtle]

"Gah!"

*runs around the thread flailing*

"You can't do this to your Mayor!!!!"

[Murska]

I'll point at Happyturtle to save her from this threatening lynch! :smalleek:

[Fleeing Coward]

I see a bandwagon.
Happyturtle

[Szilard]

Happyturtle might be a beast, and is trying to get us to point at her for that reason...

[Jontom Xire]

And now, Jontom is safe. The position of his name was such that you would find his name if you only looked at the first 10 prime numbers, in order. (my source for prime number definition was Wikipedia, which excludes 1 as a prime).

Ugh, I was looking at the spacing BETWEEN letters, not their absolute position. Oh well. And I was fairly sure the last "e" was wrong, but couldn't be bothered to trya nd work out where it should be.

I wish now I'd kept the workings I made of all the spacings. I should have spotted a pattern in that. In fact I kinda did, but it was wrong :)

[Cristo Meyers]

Im'ma point at Helgraf for old time's sake.

[UncleWolf]

*several people enter and bag pipes start to play*

*they sing*

O Wolfie Boy, the pipes, the pipes are calling
From glen to glen, and down the mountain side.
The summer's gone and all the roses falling;
It's you, it's you must go and I must bide.

But come ye back when summer's in the meadow,
Or when the valley's hushed and white with snow.
And I'll be here in sunshine or in shadow;
Oh Wolfie Boy, oh Wolfie Boy, I love you so!

But when ye come, and all the flow'rs are dying,
If I am dead, as dead I well may be.
Ye'll come and find the place where I am lying,
And kneel and say an Ave there for me.

And I shall hear, though soft you tread above me;
And all my grave will warmer, sweeter be,
For you will bend and tell me that you love me;
And I shall sleep in peace until you come to me

*they leave slowly in a file, each paying their respect to the fallen Wolfbane*

[Shadow]

1) You don't need to be able to quote the quote. It just needs to be hidden in the message.

Absolutely Incorrect.

You answered the question with your example - if it takes more then eight words to explain (i.e. the first letter in the first sentence, first in the second, second in the third, third in the forth, etc) - then my eyes gloss over and I'll go into comvulsions. Despite knowing the prinicipal of the fibonacci sequence, I'm not a mathmatician, so using i x pi won't work. I'll accept fibonacci as the most complex "math" conversion. other then that, first letter of every word, last letter of every word, third letter of every word are acceptable.

And regarding signatures - put it this way. If I can't quote it (for proof later that the narrators killed off the right people when assassin's attack), then it's not considered in your post. Sig's can't be quoted. Links to websites that can be changed won't work. (i.e. - www.youtube.com/video - that leads to a video of Atreyu getting shot), however links like wwww.youtube.com/Atreyu can be quoted and would be fine.
Emphasis mine.
I read this literally, as opposed to simply regarding sigs.
It has to be able to be quoted.
Your attempt cannot be quoted.
Your attempt is invalid.

edit:
Now can we lynch the self professed assassin who's flaunting his kills?

[Deathslayer7]

Cristo Meyers cause i love him. and talic, i might have searched for the other names, but i'm not feeling up to it.

[Cristo Meyers]

Cristo Meyers cause i love him. and talic, i might have searched for the other names, but i'm not feeling up to it.

I...you...

...wait, what?

It's Tuesday and I had a bout of insomnia last night, don' do this to me! :smalltongue:

[Deathslayer7]

well then. i should use this to my advantage shouldn't i? :smallbiggrin:

*broom whacks*

[Cristo Meyers]

well then. i should use this to my advantage shouldn't i? :smallbiggrin:

*broom whacks*

Oh no you di'nt...

*twirls mop*

EN GARDE!

[Lamech]

I agree Talic please go away. Also thank you Shaddow for finding that. Now I don't have to tamper with people's name's in quotes.

[Uncle Festy]

… hm.
What the hell, it's Shadow and it's not day 3 yet.
Talic.

[Shadow]

How long do you think he's going to continue to flaunt his kills at us? The fact that he rubs it in our faces should be enough for you. Ariko was killed last night. Better that we try to stop these assassination attempts before they get out of hand, I say. Really, he's just fear-mongering, possibly trying to divert our attention from something else?...
Don't give in to it.

[Hyozo]

:smallsigh: (Talic) Talic seems to be trying to get the spotlight on him again. Sadly, the frozen Llama seems to be pointed in Jontom Xire's direction instead.

[Lex-Kat]

I'll follow Shadow's logic. Sorry Talic.

[Alarra]

Now can we lynch the self professed assassin who's flaunting his kills?

Sure, sounds good to me. *Spins in a circle and points a hoof at Talic*

[Dallas-Dakota]

More assasins = More kills = More chance at being killed.
Thus less asssasins = less kills = less chance at being killed = Talic

[Helgraf]

More kills too often means faster wolf win. Especially when there's no research and no restraint.
Talic

[Atreyu the Masked LLama]

Bulletin board time


Hi Everybody!
"Hi Dr. Nick!"
Today we have a special procedure. We're to see if I'm a seer or a fool. And Jontom Xire has a bad case of duck syndrome. Deadly to all llamas. Let's operate!

[happyturtle]

I am utterly and completely convinced in the veracity of that message.

Jontom Xire.

[Shadow]

I say we ignore said bulletin and focus on the assassin for now.
Duck = 1 kill collectively
Assassins = unknown # of kills in addition

And how do we know this isn't Talic trying to save himself?
Ignore it.

[Darkcomet]

And how do we know this isn't Talic trying to save himself?
Ignore it.

I must say that I had this exact thought myself.

[Talic]

What research?

The voting record of people who are blindly pointing? (yeah, that's everyone)

Sheesh, if there's one thing that you can get information from, it's how people react to the unexpected.

I mean, really, let's say I hide 4 names a day. Even if nobody looks, or finds a name, you've got a 25% chance of being whacked, if you're in the list.

Chance of wolf winning off assassins? In this challenge, where the wolves are blind? worse than the chance of llamas winning. Assassins provide a statistical advantage to llamas.


As for Shadow? Akiro? Nope. I flaunt, right? Makes sense I'd claim my kills. And I can tell you now. My kill was nullified. Not sure if it was a bane or a nullifier, but doesn't really matter.

And for the rest? Again, assassins get a negative stigma. Really, what do they do? They speed up the game. Nothing more, nothing less. That's bad in a game where one side has an information advantage, and others don't. That's because the villagers need time.

In this game? Time isn't needed.

Want to know the information I've found?

1) Jontom Xire is decidedly uninterested in any skin save his own. Pretty non-llamaish, if you ask me.
2) Deathslayer 7 either wants to thwart kills, or only Happy Turtle's. Masons? Meh, more information needs to be gained. Won't be now though, because the hand was tipped early.

That's off 2 days, and I have 2 useful pieces of information. Off my "pointless games". Tell me, other than information that I personally volunteered... What have you gained by your votes? A dead llama, and not much else.

EDIT: Oh, and one more piece.

3) Shadow is MIGHTY interested in killing people that give llamas a statistical advantage. Namely, assassins. Go ahead, kill me. Get me out. Then? See that I'm not a duck. Then, see that, while shadow is quite the eloquent one, either he's a mallard, or he isn't able to scroll back and see the statistical analyses.

Bottom line, you have 100 people. 70 are llamas, 30 are ducks. You kill 10 at random.

You're going to be pretty much at 7 llamas, and 3 ducks. +/- 1 or so. That's the odds. And odds are, in this instance, very much against the duck in the end game.

Oh yeah, people can scare you with "Oh em gee, assassins can kill all us poor llamas". No easier than anyone else can.

Seers can establish networks... Takes time tho.
Masons start with networks. Small ones, and not complete though.

So, with no networks. Llamas have the advantage. With more time, that advantage can evaporate (smaller groups need less work to fully assemble).

So who, but a Duck, should be asking for more time?

[Darkcomet]

Waitwaitwait...

If Talic was trying to save himself, he'd try to push the closest wagon, which is Happyturtle, not Jontom...

Anyone else thought this?

[Talic]

Waitwaitwait...

If Talic was trying to save himself, he'd try to push the closest wagon, which is Happyturtle, not Jontom...

Anyone else thought this?

I don't use the bulletin board. Any "saving" that will happen will come when people realize that I'm right. Most likely, post mortem.

EDIT: Though you present a compelling argument for how much of Shadow's posts are based in thought and reason... And how much are based in bandwagoning.

I mean really... You know that someone's brutally good at manipulating others. You know he's pulling the same tricks he does in every game.

... and you all LISTEN?

Perhaps I won't get through to you after all.

[evnafets]

I'm normally of the opinion that Seer's scries should be tested. The problem is, we don't know who is claiming this scry. There is no-one to lynch if it turns out to be wrong, and it sets a precedent for anybody (Llama, Duck, or Bunny) to post various scry claims to the bulletin board.

So to the author of the anonymous bulletin board, I say this.
Come out and reveal yourself! Celebrate your Llama-ness with fellow Llamas! Don't hide behind the curtain like a dastardly Duck.

[Reinholdt]

Evnafets makes a good point. Very well.

I posted the message and claim the role.

I care not about these assassin games and wash my hands of the argument. I am, however, looking for the ducks. And they're nearly as blind as we, so I see little point in watching Jontom's voting record for information. Besides, he's smarter than that anyways.

Jontom Xire

[Darkcomet]

Okay then.

JX it is.

[Talic]

There's one piece of "Shadow Logic" debunked.

How many more, I wonder?

[Shadow]

What research?

The voting record of people who are blindly pointing? (yeah, that's everyone)

Sheesh, if there's one thing that you can get information from, it's how people react to the unexpected.

I mean, really, let's say I hide 4 names a day. Even if nobody looks, or finds a name, you've got a 25% chance of being whacked, if you're in the list.

Chance of wolf winning off assassins? In this challenge, where the wolves are blind? worse than the chance of llamas winning. Assassins provide a statistical advantage to llamas.


As for Shadow? Akiro? Nope. I flaunt, right? Makes sense I'd claim my kills. And I can tell you now. My kill was nullified. Not sure if it was a bane or a nullifier, but doesn't really matter.

And for the rest? Again, assassins get a negative stigma. Really, what do they do? They speed up the game. Nothing more, nothing less. That's bad in a game where one side has an information advantage, and others don't. That's because the villagers need time.

In this game? Time isn't needed.

Want to know the information I've found?

1) Jontom Xire is decidedly uninterested in any skin save his own. Pretty non-llamaish, if you ask me.
2) Deathslayer 7 either wants to thwart kills, or only Happy Turtle's. Masons? Meh, more information needs to be gained. Won't be now though, because the hand was tipped early.

That's off 2 days, and I have 2 useful pieces of information. Off my "pointless games". Tell me, other than information that I personally volunteered... What have you gained by your votes? A dead llama, and not much else.

EDIT: Oh, and one more piece.

3) Shadow is MIGHTY interested in killing people that give llamas a statistical advantage. Namely, assassins. Go ahead, kill me. Get me out. Then? See that I'm not a duck. Then, see that, while shadow is quite the eloquent one, either he's a mallard, or he isn't able to scroll back and see the statistical analyses.

Bottom line, you have 100 people. 70 are llamas, 30 are ducks. You kill 10 at random.

You're going to be pretty much at 7 llamas, and 3 ducks. +/- 1 or so. That's the odds. And odds are, in this instance, very much against the duck in the end game.

Oh yeah, people can scare you with "Oh em gee, assassins can kill all us poor llamas". No easier than anyone else can.

Seers can establish networks... Takes time tho.
Masons start with networks. Small ones, and not complete though.

So, with no networks. Llamas have the advantage. With more time, that advantage can evaporate (smaller groups need less work to fully assemble).

So who, but a Duck, should be asking for more time?

Your assessment of the situation, namely the advantage of the assassin, is flawed.
Let's look at this piece by piece.
You said, in this order:

Assassins provide a statistical advantage to llamas.

assassins get a negative stigma. Really, what do they do? They speed up the game. Nothing more, nothing less. That's bad in a game where one side has an information advantage, and others don't. That's because the villagers need time.

Seers can establish networks... Takes time tho.
Masons start with networks. Small ones, and not complete though.

So, with no networks. Llamas have the advantage. With more time, that advantage can evaporate (smaller groups need less work to fully assemble).

So who, but a Duck, should be asking for more time?
So, by your own admission, speeding up the game gives the Seer(s) les time to form their networks.
How the HELL does this make the assassins give the advantage to the Llamas?!?!?
This gives the advantage to the Ducks!

edit: ans as for "debunking" my logic: I said "how do we know...."
I didn't say "IT WAS TALIC!"

[Shadow]

I'm not changing my point.
I stand by my opinion that random killings in the game favor the Ducks.
period.

And with no information to go on this early in the game, the assassination attampts are just that.
Random.

Therefor they favor the Ducks.

Anyone that I happen to notice using them (without knowledge of WHO they're killing) will be targeted by my points and arguments at some point. I guarantee it.

[Recaiden]

Ducks can have seers too.

[Talic]

@SHADOW:
No, you didn't. You implied it. Much more subtle.

However, let's look.

100 people. 70 good, 30 bad. 10 are assassins.

1 round of deaths. 7 llamas, 3 ducks, 1 assassin.

90 people. 63 good, 27 bad. 9 are assassins.

2 rounds. 6 good, 3 bad. 1 assassins.

81 people. 57 good., 24 bad. 8 are assassins.

3 rounds. 6 good, 2 bad. No assassins this time.

77 people left. 51 good, 22 bad. 8 are assassins.

4 rounds... 5...6...

Eventually, the odds get down to this, +/- 1 or so (standard deviance is 1 (10%)):

10 people left. 7 good, 3 bad, 1 assassin. This is where the assassin needs to die. Why? Because if he's a duck, he'll never die, except by lynch.

At this point, assassin dies. Let's say he's a Llama. 70% odds, after all.
now, we have 9.

6 good, 3 bad.
vote. 67% chance of good, 33% bad. Good dies.
5 good, 3 bad. 62.5% good, 37.5% bad. Bad dies.
5 good, 2 bad. 71% good, 29% bad. Good dies.
4 good, 2 bad. 67% good, 33% bad. Good dies.
3 good, 2 bad. 60% good, 40% bad. Bad dies.

3 good, 1 bad. 75% good. From here? Let's assess odds.
The duck gets 1 chance. 1 failure, and llamas win. It's a decent chance, but it progressively gets worse.

In order to win, the duck must win a 75%, then a 67%, then a 50%.

Those odds are 75% llamas, 25% ducks.

And that, Shadow, is WHY the llamas have the advantage, in random distribution. Numbers. The llamas simply have more bodies to soak up.

UNLIKE all the other "what if" scenarios, at each step, I took statistically likely information.

So, rather than listen to all the "Oh noes, assassins will kill all the llamas"...

Why not listen to the people who present PLAUSIBLE scenarios? Hm?


Ducks can have seers too.
EXACTLY. And if a Duck has a seer, and he needs to find 4 others to have every duck on board...

And if the llamas have a seer, and they need to find 16 others...

Who do you think gets the clear picture first? Hm?
And what now happens? Now every player must gauge when the posts stopped being random. Everyone must guess.

Meanwhile, the llamas keep dying.

[evnafets]

Thats the problem with getting well known in these games. You get scried early and often. Well, lets test Reinholdt's scry
evnafets points at Jontom Xire

[Shadow]

all that cunning math
Except that you forget we're not doing math homework, we're playing a strategic game. And any strategies that we may come up with to thwart the Ducks will be ruined by your wonderful "Random Killings" which I despise.

Not only that, but this is LLD, which, I shouldn't have to tell you, will not bow to your math because it was DESIGNED to ruin it!

This game is random enough without your so-called "help" making it even worse!

[PirateMonk]

Really, what do they do? They speed up the game. Nothing more, nothing less.

Exactly. In a game as unbalanced as this, winning is meaningless, so all that matters is fun. Since assassins end the game sooner they allow less opportunities for people to have fun, and thus-

Ooh, shiny billboard! JontomXire.

[Talic]

Except that you forget we're not doing math homework, we're playing a strategic game. And any strategies that we may come up with to thwart the Ducks will be ruined by your wonderful "Random Killings" which I despise.

Not only that, but this is LLD, which, I shouldn't have to tell you, will not bow to your math because it was DESIGNED to ruin it!

This game is random enough without your so-called "help" making it even worse!

Strategies!? LOL. The only strategy that's to be had is, "Sit tight and wait for a seer to notice you."

And we've already seen who THAT one benefits more.

Or maybe, it's trying to glean insight into the random potshots of everyone else, who's as blind as you?

No, really, this I GOTTA hear. What possible strategy could exist in a game that's more or less totally random? Because it is. Your flaw lies in you call this a "Strategy" game, like other variants of WW.

It's double blind. The usual information paths are gone. Seers, and forcing people to betray themselves... That's the only strategy that's worth pursuing.

No, when the randomness provides the odds for "good guy wins, bad guy loses", the only possible argument against... would be made by a bad guy.

And that, friends... Is how you flush out a duck. You logically show them why your strategy provides a good chance of victory... and they pretty much tell you to take your common sense, logic, and reason, and shove it. All of your accurate, well thought out, and correct reasons are wrong because they involve statistics and math (much like anyone with a decent spreadsheet in a standard game of WW uses). Instead, we should trust vague notions from someone KNOWN to be a fearmonger, a manipulator, a deceiver. We should trust, "I reject your facts, and offer you this balloon! And the balloon says that Talic is a bad bad man!"

Come on, if you want these people to believe you... Give them something other than baseless fearmongering to go on.

[Shadow]

It doesn't matter anyway because your numbers are all wrong.
Wrong wrong wrong.

You didn't account for all kills.
# of assassins + night kill + lynch.
Not all of these are represented, so I ignore your faulty math completely.

[Talic]

It doesn't matter anyway because your numbers are all wrong.
Wrong wrong wrong.

You didn't account for all kills.
# of assassins + night kill + lynch.
Not all of these are represented, so I ignore your faulty math completely.

They're pretty much all blind. Wolves are just as likely to kill wolves. Lynch is just as random as anything.

IT IS ALL RANDOM.

And when randomness is total, the side with greater numbers has the advantage.

Tell me Shadow... Which side in a WW game typically has larger numbers?

Tell me also... Are you obsessed with being right? Or are you trying to help the underdog, here? Cause in this game? Wolves are the underdog in a short game.

The side that has the advantage in a long, drawn out game? That's the wolves.

So, your logical response? Kill anything that could speed up the game.

Either you're being illogical out of anger... or you're being logical, and feigning ignorance and charisma, whichever is more convenient at the time.

[Recaiden]

Shadow...... is the new Trixie

[Selrahc]

The thing is, we are dealing with people, not statistics. The fact that there is no voting record to analyse properly does not mean that we can't examine the actions of people.

I'm not a spreadsheet gamer. I've tried using them, and frankly it made the entire thing seem too much like homework rather than a game. But even without strenuous vote analysis I've found a few wolves. You can still pick up on oddities in behaviour. People who are trying to stay out of the limelight, people who are aiming to set themselves up by being prominent to accuse. The reactions of those who are accused. Even little things can reveal clues. So yeah, it is possible to find ducks without voting records, and the longer we leave the game running, the more chance it will give us to find those ducks who slip up in their imitation of a llama.

Then there is the other advantage of time, as has already been proved, we have a lot of potential seers. Since the llama seers can speak up when they find a duck, and the ducks can only link up when they find a duck, and gain no real advantage by scrying a llama time makes our seers more valuable than theirs.

A lot of your mathematical findings take the idea that the most likely result will happen every time. It won't. At the end of the day, it's all a huge crapshoot. Personally, I'd prefer it if was everyone who was working together to find the ducks, rather than the entire game essentially being an exercise in random scenario simulation.

Lastly, I'd say that the entire goal is a bit rubbish. You want to make this game incredibly short, and wreck a lot of people's enjoyment, and the payoff for that is that the ducks *may* be easier to wipe out, assuming the ratios stay the same.

[Shadow]

The thing is, we are dealing with people, not statistics. The fact that there is no voting record to analyse properly does not mean that we can't examine the actions of people.

I'm not a spreadsheet gamer. I've tried using them, and frankly it made the entire thing seem too much like homework rather than a game. But even without strenuous vote analysis I've found a few wolves. You can still pick up on oddities in behaviour. People who are trying to stay out of the limelight, people who are aiming to set themselves up by being prominent to accuse. The reactions of those who are accused. Even little things can reveal clues. So yeah, it is possible to find ducks without voting records, and the longer we leave the game running, the more chance it will give us to find those ducks who slip up in their imitation of a llama.

Then there is the other advantage of time, as has already been proved, we have a lot of potential seers. Since the llama seers can speak up when they find a duck, and the ducks can only link up when they find a duck, and gain no real advantage by scrying a llama time makes our seers more valuable than theirs.

A lot of your mathematical findings take the idea that the most likely result will happen every time. It won't. At the end of the day, it's all a huge crapshoot. Personally, I'd prefer it if was everyone who was working together to find the ducks, rather than the entire game essentially being an exercise in random scenario simulation.

Lastly, I'd say that the entire goal is a bit rubbish. You want to make this game incredibly short, and wreck a lot of people's enjoyment, and the payoff for that is that the ducks *may* be easier to wipe out, assuming the ratios stay the same.
My point exactly.
We didn't get 50 or so people to play this because they wanted to become fodder for your mathematical experiment. They want to PLAY!

And, as most of us here can attest to, random killings (while they may seem to mathematically favor the good guys, according to your flawed calculations) almost always help the bad guys.

I detest this type of play. That's why I argue against it.
This isn't an equation, it's a strategic game, played by people who may not do what your math says they should do.
If you want math, watch an episode of Numbers. If you want fun, stop randomly killing people on the flawed premise that it helps the good guys.

[Aemoh]

Cause I can't bring myself to test a seer scry by lynching JX. I do wanna lynch Talic, but that would be seen as aiding a duck if JX is actually one. So... point at the person above, Selrahc.

EDIT: Selrahc was above me when I started typing. I'm slow at times :smalleek:

[Talic]

The thing is, we are dealing with people, not statistics. The fact that there is no voting record to analyse properly does not mean that we can't examine the actions of people.Wrong. We're dealing with both.


I'm not a spreadsheet gamer. I've tried using them, and frankly it made the entire thing seem too much like homework rather than a game. But even without strenuous vote analysis I've found a few wolves. You can still pick up on oddities in behaviour. People who are trying to stay out of the limelight, people who are aiming to set themselves up by being prominent to accuse. The reactions of those who are accused. Even little things can reveal clues. So yeah, it is possible to find ducks without voting records, and the longer we leave the game running, the more chance it will give us to find those ducks who slip up in their imitation of a llama.Reactions of the accused? People making themselves a target? Look up. What's been happening?

Then there is the other advantage of time, as has already been proved, we have a lot of potential seers. Since the llama seers can speak up when they find a duck, and the ducks can only link up when they find a duck, and gain no real advantage by scrying a llama time makes our seers more valuable than theirs.And a duck can speak up when he finds a llama... and call it a duck... and people just think he's a fool.

A lot of your mathematical findings take the idea that the most likely result will happen every time. It won't. At the end of the day, it's all a huge crapshoot. Personally, I'd prefer it if was everyone who was working together to find the ducks, rather than the entire game essentially being an exercise in random scenario simulation.Or you can take it as... Have fun. Don't think about it. Goof off... And if you're a Llama? Probably win.

Lastly, I'd say that the entire goal is a bit rubbish. You want to make this game incredibly short, and wreck a lot of people's enjoyment, and the payoff for that is that the ducks *may* be easier to wipe out, assuming the ratios stay the same.
Replace "may" with "more often than not", "probably", or "most likely", and you'd be more accurate.

[Lamech]

The game is about fun. Not being in a mathematical exersice. Thats why we are here to play. Maybe I screwed up when I tapped up the program and your right, but it wouldn't change my opinion. Why shouldn't be killing people totally randomly this early in the game.



They're pretty much all blind. Wolves are just as likely to kill wolves. Lynch is just as random as anything.

IT IS ALL RANDOM.

And when randomness is total, the side with greater numbers has the advantage.
No not everything is random. Not the wolf night kill that can only harm wolves. I suspect you havn't totally thought this through. And what can seem logical, can be false. Ex: If a probablity distribution is symetrical over the x-axis when plotted, what is the average value? (X's are output, area is probablity of something falling that range.) 0 right?

[happyturtle]

Bah. Stupid srs business.

Puts my feathers in a ruffle. :smallannoyed:

[Talic]

No not everything is random. Not the wolf night kill that can only harm wolves. I suspect you havn't totally thought this through. And what can seem logical, can be false. Ex: If a probablity distribution is symetrical over the x-axis when plotted, what is the average value? (X's are output, area is probablity of something falling that range.) 0 right?

How often in a WW game is probability distribution symmetrical?

It's usually around 18 / 6... or so. Llamas outnumber 3 to 1, typically.

[Shadow]

How often in a WW game is probability distribution symmetrical?

It's usually around 18 / 6... or so. Llamas outnumber 3 to 1, typically.

Again, flawed.
Good guys, typically (to use your words) outnumber the bad guys 4 to 1, or 5 to 1.
Flawed math, as I said.

And this is to say nothing of the fact that we have all seen "snipers, assassins, and the like" in play and they almost always end up helping the bad guys, regardless of your wonderful math.

edit: I'll see you guys tomorrow sometime.

[Lamech]

:smallconfused:The "Ex:" was an example that has nothing to do with WW games, other than to illistrate a point. Its just any symetrical probablity distrubitution. Is that enough to get an average?

[evnafets]

This is a silly message board game - intended for fun and diversion. Assassins are in the mix this time, and it seems to have everyone up in a ruckus. Logic fights logic fights llama logic - my head is spinning already. I need a break. Can everybody just stop for a while please?

The ducks are laughing on the sidelines about how assassin fever has taken over this game. Everybody is so paranoid about assassination, that the ducks are going unnoticed and unchased.

Whether or not Assassins in the end work for the side of the llamas or the ducks (or the bunnies - don't forget the bunnies!) is pretty much irrelevant. I seem to remember that last game, the Assassin was a neutral poodle who sided with the Llamas. In that example the "random element" worked on side Llama. People are free to play the game as they see fit. Talic seems honourable after his own fashion. If he wants to play his challenge, thats fine with me. Its part of the craziness that is Llama Llama Duck (and Bunny!)

[Selrahc]

Wrong. We're dealing with both.

Sure. The fact is though, the statistics you are quoting aren't real people. The game will be. Theoretical statistics tell us very little about the actual situation that is likely to result unless they are a damn sight better founded than yours.

Look at the crazy levels of generalization you're making in the maths. Baners aren't taken into account, anomalous results aren't taken into account, the fact that kills won't be completely random isn't taken into account. The entire model is nothing more than a bundle of quick sums.

I don't think that serves as a correct basis on which to sentence 4 out of 5 players of this game to death, which is your proposed rational course of action.


Reactions of the accused? People making themselves a target? Look up. What's been happening?

Well quite. That's precisely the reason why we shouldn't be trying to end things early.


And a duck can speak up when he finds a llama... and call it a duck... and people just think he's a fool.

No. People think he is a duck, and he gets lynched. Because really, who would present a better target.

If he was really a fool, well then it's a scant loss. If he was really a duck, then he has traded a duck for a llama. A fools bargain.



Replace "may" with "more often than not", "probably", or "most likely", and you'd be more accurate.

I'd say that isn't really right.

Cue long winded boring mathsy bit without which my arguments will probably be dismissed out of hand. Blah.

If there are 70 good people, 30 bad people and 10 random people are killed the most likely result is that 7 good people and 3 bad people will die.

That is only one possible result though. The actual result could be anything from 10 good people dying to 9 bad person and 1 good one.

The odds of the actual result of the random kills being 7:3 is slightly higher than any other combination, but it is not above 50%. It is more likely for that result not to occur than to occur. Even if it does occur, the next time it probably won't.

Even though 7 is the most likely number to come up on two dice, the odds of a number other than 7 occurring are greater than the odds of 7 occurring. The sum of all probabilities apart from seven is greater than the probability of 7.

I think the claim that random killing will not skew the ratio is like claiming that if you throw the 2 dice 10 times it will never roll anything other than a seven. The probability of the ratio of good to evil being substantially changed by the end game, far from being a near impossibility as you claim, is in fact almost certain to happen.

I will concede, if this was an infinite random sampling, the ratio would eventually swing back to even over time. But since the sample size is so small the odds of anomalous results making a huge difference is in fact rather high.

[happyturtle]

I have provided a summary of day two for lazy llamas, bunnies, and ducks everywhere who are dismayed by the walls of text:

http://images.icanhascheezburger.com/completestore/2009/4/2/128831619430646384.jpg

Wolfbane: Blargh. I r ded.

Happyturtle: I'm evil! But nobody lynches girls. Neener Neener!

lamech: "Maths!"

Selrahc: "Maths!"

Jontom: "Assasins are bad! Lynch Talic!"

Shadow: "Yeah!"

Talic: "Nuh-uh!"

Reinholdt: "JX is a duck."

Everyone else: Lolwut?

[Lex-Kat]

I agree with Turtle. And the last time she claimed evil, in the game, it turned out she was evil.
Shadow
So let's lynch her and let Talic have fun playing it his way. That is all he's doing after all, trying to have fun.