Swine 'flu... Gulp...

[Naleh]

Swine 'flu (a strain of Influenza A H1N1). (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_outbreak)

160 deaths, 8 of which are laboratory confirmed, including one death in the US.
2.5 thousand ill in Mexico, 49 of which are laboratory confirmed.
91 confirmed illnesses in the US.
16 confirmed illnesses in Canada.
10 confirmed illnesses in Spain.
5 confirmed illnesses in the UK.
4 confirmed illnesses in New Zealand.
3 confirmed illnesses in Germany.
Confirmed illnesses in Israel, Costa Rica, South Korea and Austria.
Suspected cases worldwide.

I assume it's been all over the news for days, but since I don't usually watch the news, I first learned about it about a day ago as part of a "weekly report on America" on the radio.

A few hours after that, it was announced that a group of 25 Rangitoto College students and teachers had just returned from Mexico on a Spanish language trip, and 19 of them were exhibiting "'flu-like symptoms". Since then, 13 have been tested for Influenza A (of which swine 'flu is a subtype), and 10 of them tested positive.

I live very close to Rangitoto College. I know people who attend there.

Overnight it was pointed out that a group of 18 from Northcote College had been on a similar trip at the same time, but they were all healthy. An hour or two ago, however, three of them started showing 'flu-like symptoms and are being tested.

I attend Northcote College. Friends of mine were on that trip.

... I'm scared. :smallfrown:

[Eldan]

Well, a new strain of flu alone is not a reason to be worried, most of them aren't more lethal than present strains. I'll read up on this one...

[Haruki-kun]

Well, a new strain of flu alone is not a reason to be worried, most of them aren't more lethal than present strains. I'll read up on this one...

Haven't read the news much, have you?

[Eldan]

I read two papers every day and watch the news on TV. Never heard about it.

Though, I must admit, it's been half a year since I've taken my last classes in epidemology.

[RabbitHoleLost]

I don't know what kind of newspapers you've been reading, then, because its been plastered all over everywhere, and I don't watch news programs or read newspapers.
This is a particularly lethal strain of flu. Atleast twenty dead, and its only been a little over a week, I think. With our current medical system, that's a big-time thing.

[DraPrime]

With any luck they'll have this locked down. This isn't like the days of the Spanish flu where we had lots of poor hygiene and really densely populated cities. We also have better disease prevention methods.

[chiasaur11]

Wasn't Swine Flu the "Terrifying disease of dooooommmmm" back in the 70s?

I'm not saying no-one will die or anything. It's a tragedy and I hope none of your friends are affected and so on.

It's just, well, between SARS, West Nile, and Bird Flu, my bio panic alarms now only go off for the Solanum virus.

[Haruki-kun]

The government here declared state of emergency and granted special powers to the president to cancel flights, close schools, as well as any other mass-gathering place near the capital, including night clubs, movie theaters, and restaurants. Several countries in Europe and Asia have completely blocked all flights in and out of their countries. Drug stores here are all out of surgical masks because people are buying them for protection.

Yes, it is something to be worried about.

[Eldan]

Well, I must admit that one of those two papers was of the type that's llying around for free at train stations, but the other one is supposedly the best in the country and usually writes about nearly everything... strange. Perhaps I just forgot it.

[DraPrime]

Wasn't Swine Flu the "Terrifying disease of dooooommmmm" back in the 70s?

I'm not saying no-one will die or anything. It's a tragedy and I hope none of your friends are affected and so on.

It's just, well, between SARS, West Nile, and Bird Flu, my bio panic alarms now only go off for the Solanum virus.

Those all could have been catastrophes had people not freaked out and locked it down. Generally it's best to get government people to freak out.

[Trizap]

...........don't worry Trizap.......you live in a small town, on an island, in one of the northernmost parts of the country.......you don't go out much...... you hate pigs.........don't worry......its unlikely that you get infected.....

[bluewind95]

Yep. I live in Mexico (though not in Mexico city). Someone just died from that flu all the way up here. I'm not especially worried since my immune system has always kept me out of trouble, but still... it's not a good thing.

It's been very hot, too, so I've been sleeping with soaked clothes (awesome way to cool down but unfortunately also a good way to catch a cold) so I hope I haven't weakened my immune system THAT much.

Oh and some journal went on about "Why are people dying in Mexico and not in the US?" Well, that sounds like a good question, but I think I can answer for at least one factor. We are culturally not very prone to going to the doctor. Strep throat, dengue, salmonella, flu, you name it, if we can stand up in the first place, we'll ignore it and go on with our normal life, going to work and stuff. This is from the time we're kids. We MIGHT go to the doctor after we feel awful enough (probably after about a week of still being sick) and we'll get some antibiotics and continue to ignore it. In the case of this flu, what's happened is that people have waited TOO long to go to the doctor and since it's deadly and stuff... yeah, people are dying. A good piece of advice for all you people worried about dying from this.... go to the doctor as soon as you feel ill. If it's something else, well, good for you. If it's THIS flu and your body isn't prepared to fight it off (isn't it a relatively new strain?), well, medicine has come a long way and you should be fine. At any rate, better safe than sorry!

[Midnight Son]

I haven't read the details, but, were I to guess, I'd say that the deaths were among the more infirm members of society, as they were with SARS, the bird flu and so on. While that is unfortunate (I refuse to use the word tragedy as the news outlets are throwing it around enough), it is still a normal process with any disease. Still, I feel for any who catch it. Being sick sucks and being sick with a particularly nasty disease sucks worse.

On a lighter note, any guesses as to what they'll name next years big disease? I'm voting for the platypus flu.

[Haruki-kun]

This totally sucks... it would be easier if people weren't talking about it everywhere I go. I get on a cab, the cab driver wants to talk about it. I go to school, my school mates want to talk about it. I go to a friend's house, my friends are all talking about it. I even go to freakin' 4chan and they're talking about it.

[Recaiden]

This is the first that I've heard of it.:smalleek: This is terrible.

[SDF]

With any luck they'll have this locked down. This isn't like the days of the Spanish flu where we had lots of poor hygiene and really densely populated cities. We also have better disease prevention methods.


Wasn't Swine Flu the "Terrifying disease of dooooommmmm" back in the 70s? It's just, well, between SARS, West Nile, and Bird Flu, my bio panic alarms now only go off for the Solanum virus.

In a way it's exactly like Spanish flu because *dramatic noise* H1N1 is Spanish flu. You know, the one that had an outbreak during WWI and killed twice as many people as the war did. It is known to be present in both pigs and birds. This is in part a realization of the avian flu scare. SARS was scary because when we first found out about it no one really knew what to expect. That coupled with the medias need to sensationalize and scare people for ratings ballooned the concern. West Nile wasn't ever much of a risk for an epidemic mostly because of the way it spreads. It is much more dangerous to animals. Most humans that get it don't exhibit symptoms, not even realizing they have it. It had a 15% mortality rate in the early 2000's outbreak in the Middle East mostly affecting the elderly or the young.

[THAC0]

I haven't read the details, but, were I to guess, I'd say that the deaths were among the more infirm members of society,

Actually, this is incorrect, and part of the concern about this particular strain. Like the 1918 flu, this one has proven deadly to the normally resistant and healthy population ages 20-40. Of interest, no children (normally vulnerable) have died, even in Mexico.

[Vizen]

I'm glad I don't live in that part of Auckland. I think.
Hmm.
For a JAFA I really don't know a lot about it. =/

[Xallace]

Now if I recall from the articles I've read (at least, the CNN article), those so far confirmed with the flu in the US have "recovered or are expected to recover." The only deaths so far are in Mexico.

I would really like to confirm what I read, but CNN appears to have removed that particular statement from their article. At the same time, they don't mention anyone else dying, the number's the same as it was this morning.

Strange. Perhaps my memory is faulty, but I remember finding that point being of specific interest.

[reorith]

obligatory-insensitive-comment-about-how-this-is-the-fault-of-factory/farm-conditions-that-wouldn't-exist-if-pigs-were-treated-like-thinking-feeling-beings-capable-of-more-than-oinking-and-being-delicious


but yeah.

[DrakebloodIV]

Hey, as long as the pigs and humans don't start rising and groaning, I'll be fine.

[THAC0]

Now if I recall from the articles I've read (at least, the CNN article), those so far confirmed with the flu in the US have "recovered or are expected to recover." The only deaths so far are in Mexico.

I would really like to confirm what I read, but CNN appears to have removed that particular statement from their article. At the same time, they don't mention anyone else dying, the number's the same as it was this morning.

Strange. Perhaps my memory is faulty, but I remember finding that point being of specific interest.

You are correct, sir.

[Naleh]

So far, noone has died outside of Mexico.

Also, a quote of interest from my national newspaper (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10568826&pnum=6):

The new virus is called a swine flu, though it contains genetic segments from humans and birds viruses as well as from pigs from North America, Europe and Asia.

Health officials had seen combinations of bird, pig and human virus before - but never such an intercontinental mix, including more than one pig virus.

People appear to have no immunity to the new virus and it seems to spread easily from person to person.

[Kyouhen]

Also, because I haven't seen it mentioned here yet, I read that the deaths were caused by severe pneumonia caused by the flu. Majority of the people killed do fall under the 'healthy adult' category though.

[afroakuma]

I sincerely hope I do. I'm led to understand that one of the Canadian cases is in my (not very large) city.

[Xallace]

...People appear to have no immunity to the new virus and it seems to spread easily from person to person.

...have "recovered or are expected to recover."

...OK, one of us received faulty information here. The fact that CNN has apparently removed my quote from their article leads me to believe it's mine, but then why was it there in the first place?

Can anyone else confirm that statement at one point existed? I don't want to tout a theory that's apparently an illusion.

[THAC0]

...OK, one of us received faulty information here. The fact that CNN has apparently removed my quote from their article leads me to believe it's mine, but then why was it there in the first place?

Can anyone else confirm that statement at one point existed? I don't want to tout a theory that's apparently an illusion.

The two are not necessarily contradictory. No immunity does not equal death.

[Xallace]

The two are not necessarily contradictory. No immunity does not equal death.

Touche, THAC0. That's a good point.

[Rogue 7]

I must confess that I find panicky statements about this and other things similar to it to be overblown, and I don't think that media causing a panic really helps what's going on. This might make me go out and get a flu shot, but right now I don't think it's going to be a big deal. Got the flu once when I was 7 or 8. Was out of school for a week but I turned out fine. Couple that with a healthy immune system and I'm not worried.

[InaVegt]

...OK, one of us received faulty information here. The fact that CNN has apparently removed my quote from their article leads me to believe it's mine, but then why was it there in the first place?

Can anyone else confirm that statement at one point existed? I don't want to tout a theory that's apparently an illusion.

That people are expected to recover *with proper treatment* doesn't mean there is a natural immunity, or that you should discount it as nonlethal.

From what I've heard, most of the victims in Mexico where healthy adults, that clearly proves it's a threat to take into account.

I also heard that most victims were untreated, or for whom treatment came much too late.

[THAC0]

I must confess that I find panicky statements about this and other things similar to it to be overblown, and I don't think that media causing a panic really helps what's going on. This might make me go out and get a flu shot, but right now I don't think it's going to be a big deal. Got the flu once when I was 7 or 8. Was out of school for a week but I turned out fine. Couple that with a healthy immune system and I'm not worried.

You do realize that, as a new strain of the virus, the flu shot is highly unlikely to prove effective?

[THAC0]

Touche, THAC0. That's a good point.

You get a saving throw, at least. :smalltongue:

[RTGoodman]

So far, noone has died outside of Mexico.

Also, a quote of interest from my national newspaper (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10568826&pnum=6):


The new virus is called a swine flu, though it contains genetic segments from humans and birds viruses as well as from pigs from North America, Europe and Asia.

Health officials had seen combinations of bird, pig and human virus before - but never such an intercontinental mix, including more than one pig virus.

People appear to have no immunity to the new virus and it seems to spread easily from person to person.

Wait... so it's now a... ManBearBirdPig virus? My god - we're doomed!

In all honesty, I'm not TOO worried about it yet. I'm hoping it proves no worse than the other "pandemics" we've seen recently (West Nile, etc.) that, while they were nothing to sneeze at (no pun intended*), weren't as bad as the doom-and-gloom news stories first made them out to be.

*Okay, maybe SLIGHTLY intended. :smalltongue:

[Xallace]

You get a saving throw, at least. :smalltongue:

And you could always roll a Nat 20! :smallbiggrin:

But in all seriousness I would like to agree that now is not the time to panic. Most on here will probably say "Well, duh!" or some variation thereof to that statement, but the Health Warning has been- as of the time of this posting- issued only as a first precaution. "Prepare for the worst, hope for the best" as they say.

[bluewind95]

I also heard that most victims were untreated, or for whom treatment came much too late.

Aye, like I said in my post... the reason people are dying here in Mexico is just that we don't like doctors if we can possibly avoid them. We're MUCH more likely, in general, to resort to home remedies than to a doctor, especially in the case of "just a flu". The problem here is not so much how lethal it is, but rather that the people who have died have gone all "Mexican macho" attitude and held back until, too late, they realized that their bodies were NOT going to win against this.

Again. You people that know of this... better safe than sorry. Vitamin C and zinc will help boost your immune system, but if you do get sick... off to the doctor ASAP. It may turn out to be nothing serious, but better safe than sorry unless you want to add to the lethality statistics on this particular bug.

[Haruki-kun]

I must confess that I find panicky statements about this and other things similar to it to be overblown, and I don't think that media causing a panic really helps what's going on.

The media exists to sell itself, and people are morbid. Go figure...

But you know what? I'm glad in a way that they're making a big deal out of it, even though I find it extremely annoying... I'm glad because if people are informed, then the situation is easier to control.

[purple gelatinous cube o' Doom]

I wouldn't be too worried at this point. I'd be willing to bet at least 90% of the people that have gotten ill/died are either the very young, or the very old, as is usually the case with there use things. If you'll recall, the same thing happened with the avian flu a few years ago, and many thought that it would be the next world pandemic, and then never developed into it. I'd think it a safe bet to believe that to be the case here unless something goes terribly wrong.

[SDF]

I wouldn't be too worried at this point. I'd be willing to bet at least 90% of the people that have gotten ill/died are either the very young, or the very old, as is usually the case with there use things. If you'll recall, the same thing happened with the avian flu a few years ago, and many thought that it would be the next world pandemic, and then never developed into it. I'd think it a safe bet to believe that to be the case here unless something goes terribly wrong.

No, we've already established this is not the case.

[InaVegt]

I wouldn't be too worried at this point. I'd be willing to bet at least 90% of the people that have gotten ill/died are either the very young, or the very old, as is usually the case with there use things. If you'll recall, the same thing happened with the avian flu a few years ago, and many thought that it would be the next world pandemic, and then never developed into it. I'd think it a safe bet to believe that to be the case here unless something goes terribly wrong.

This is not the case.

However, the majority of people who died did neglect to see a doctor in time, which is the thing to blame.

So if you get ill, go to the doctor, otherwise, don't worry about it too much, with proper treatment it's very unlikely to kill you.

[Lord Seth]

The government here declared state of emergency and granted special powers to the president to cancel flights, close schools, as well as any other mass-gathering place near the capital, including night clubs, movie theaters, and restaurants.Where is "here"?

[Naleh]

I must confess that I find panicky statements about this and other things similar to it to be overblown, and I don't think that media causing a panic really helps what's going on. This might make me go out and get a flu shot, but right now I don't think it's going to be a big deal. Got the flu once when I was 7 or 8. Was out of school for a week but I turned out fine. Couple that with a healthy immune system and I'm not worried.

... For one, you've only ever got the 'flu once in your life? :smalleek:

For two, just because you might not get it doesn't mean you shouldn't be worried.

For three, this is no ordinary 'flu. Ordinary 'flu has an extremely low fatality rate. This has a much higher one.

edit: I should add that I don't think this will become a serious pandemic. But it might. And it's a very frightening thought.

(That, and it's very close to me.)

[reorith]

i'm going to head to madagascar before they shut down their only seaport.

[Haruki-kun]

Where is "here"?

"Here" is Mexico.

[RTGoodman]

Where is "here"?

I believe Haruki's from south of the border (i.e., Mexico).

EDIT: Dangit, stupid forum lag.

[Hell Puppi]

i'm going to head to madagascar before they shut down their only seaport.


Someone's played Pandemic....

:smallbiggrin:

[Skippy]

I live near Mexico City (the main source of the illness). Today I had to bring my shotgun and gas mask to work. It seems the infected people are beginning to develop some side effects, like extremely agressive behaviors and cannibalistic taste. Also, it seems those bitten by them also get the decease. It's terrible! You need to shoot them in the head so they will stop attacking. I don't know how much will I be able to survive, right now I'm locked in a mall with maybe ten or fifteen more people. Somebody help us please!

[LordZarth]

i'm going to head to madagascar before they shut down their only seaport.

No! Please don't! I'm going to win this one... please don't head to Madagascar... my swine flu will make me WIN for once...

I mean, er, good idea.

[InaVegt]

No! Please don't! I'm going to win this one... please don't head to Madagascar... my swine flu will make me WIN for once...

I mean, er, good idea.

If he goes to madagascar, he might take your swine flu with him.

[SDF]

For three, this is no ordinary 'flu. Ordinary 'flu has an extremely low fatality rate. This has a much higher one.

Well, that we can't begin to speculate. Statistically there is only a small known infected population with this mutation of H1N1. The mortality of the annual flu is ~36,000 people annually in the US alone, which is one of the highest for communicable diseases. The annual flu has always been, as far as I know, a mutant strain of H1N1, H3N2, H1N2, (all influenza A strains) and influenza B.

[Rogue 7]

You do realize that, as a new strain of the virus, the flu shot is highly unlikely to prove effective?

Well yeah. Doesn't it take a while for them to develop a vaccine? I thought it was a new vaccine every year for the specific strain of the flu that's going around.

[Kyouhen]

i'm going to head to madagascar before they shut down their only seaport.

Psh, you kidding? That thing's been closed since a penguin in Antarctica sneezed three years ago. :smalltongue:

[chiasaur11]

I live near Mexico City (the main source of the illness). Today I had to bring my shotgun and gas mask to work. It seems the infected people are beginning to develop some side effects, like extremely agressive behaviors and cannibalistic taste. Also, it seems those bitten by them also get the decease. It's terrible! You need to shoot them in the head so they will stop attacking. I don't know how much will I be able to survive, right now I'm locked in a mall with maybe ten or fifteen more people. Somebody help us please!

You went to a mall?

You deserve what you got coming. I trust you at least have memorized some good wisecracks for when you kill a "Swine Flu" victim?

[Valiena]

The reason that healthy people are dying is most likely Cytokine storm. Just wiki it. Basically it is your immune system going overboard and doing harm. Like inflammation in the lungs and fluid harm. Same as 1918 Spanish Flu.

[Lord Seth]

Ah, okay, Mexico. Sorry, but you didn't say, and it isn't listed under your avatar, so I didn't really know.

[SDF]

Well yeah. Doesn't it take a while for them to develop a vaccine? I thought it was a new vaccine every year for the specific strain of the flu that's going around.

Yeah, they do. Using data from previous years and other sources they have to determine which strain to vaccinate for (I listed the strains in my previous post). Sometimes they have been wrong and that can cause a temporary vaccine shortage. Like I said before H1N1 is not new and they can easily produce a vaccine for it. The fear is that it spreads rapidly before they can vaccinate the population.

[skywalker]

Aye, like I said in my post... the reason people are dying here in Mexico is just that we don't like doctors if we can possibly avoid them. We're MUCH more likely, in general, to resort to home remedies than to a doctor, especially in the case of "just a flu". The problem here is not so much how lethal it is, but rather that the people who have died have gone all "Mexican macho" attitude and held back until, too late, they realized that their bodies were NOT going to win against this.

I can get behind this. When my family went on vacation for a week, my dad tried to tell our Mexican farmhand what to do if things went wrong, IE "If something happens, call me. If something really bad happens, call 911!"
The response: "No, I don't think that will be necessary."
"Well what if the tractor turns over on top of you?"
"When you get back, you push it off, ok?"

I think it's kinda a cool attitude, actually. I don't like doctors either.


For three, this is no ordinary 'flu. Ordinary 'flu has an extremely low fatality rate. This has a much higher one.

You'd be surprised at the fatality rates of some strains of flu, especially in "the developing world."

[Felixaar]

First the birds, then horses, and now pigs? Jeez, what can't we get a flu from?

Well, I guess it's time to blow up all the nations except Australia. Sorry guys, but you knew it was going to happen sooner or later.

[Vuzzmop]

I live on the North Shore, so I'm quite close to the school's affected by the virus. At least, according to the rumours. To be honest? Not too worried. the virus is highly contagious, yes, but the problems have mostly been in third/second world countries, and the US. I like to think that our health care system and quarantining will be better prepared. You never know, though. "Doomsday viruses" have been showing up since Ghandi-knows-when, but this is the first one to make it to New Zealand. Worrying...

[PhoeKun]

I'll cut you a deal, everyone. When I die from this, then I'll start worrying about it. Until then...

I dunno, I've heard about a lot of stuff I've been told I need to worry about. But I'm not a doctor, nor do I play one on tv. So me worrying accomplishes precisely squat. I'm not about to whip up a batch of flu vaccine out of concern for this latest strain.

In a nutshell, drink some orange juice, maybe take a multivitamin, and don't be afraid to see a doctor if you feel sick. Beyond that, unless you can do something about it, it's not really your place to worry about it. Or rather, you're not going to do anybody any good, least of all yourself. So chill.

[Mordokai]

@^ that sounds like a smart course of action. I'll be chilling over there in the corner, in case you need me.

[Innis Cabal]

I'll cut you a deal, everyone. When I die from this, then I'll start worrying about it. Until then...

I dunno, I've heard about a lot of stuff I've been told I need to worry about. But I'm not a doctor, nor do I play one on tv. So me worrying accomplishes precisely squat. I'm not about to whip up a batch of flu vaccine out of concern for this latest strain.

In a nutshell, drink some orange juice, maybe take a multivitamin, and don't be afraid to see a doctor if you feel sick. Beyond that, unless you can do something about it, it's not really your place to worry about it. Or rather, you're not going to do anybody any good, least of all yourself. So chill.


Probably best.

Out of 1,000 cases only 80 dead....a world wide prep action....worry about sure, but don't panic.

[Ashtar]

Links to a trusted source: CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, US)

Epidemiology Link and report from a trusted source (CDC) in PDF (http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/pdf/HAN_042509.pdf)

FAQ (Swine flu and you) from CDC (http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/swineflu_you.htm)

Key facts (http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/key_facts.htm)

WHO (World health organization)
Faq in PDF (http://www.who.int/csr/swine_flu/swine_flu_faq.pdf)

Summary from WHO:
Vaccine
Current seasonal influenza vaccine produced based on WHO recommendation does not contain swine influenza virus. It is unknown whether the seasonal vaccines can provide any cross protection to ongoing swine influenza virus infection in the United States and Mexico.

Drugs and recovery
Most of the previously reported swine influenza cases recovered fully from the disease without requiring medical attention and without antiviral medicines. The viruses obtained from the recent human cases with swine influenza in the United States were sensitive to oselatmivir and zanamivir but resistant to amantadine and remantadine.

Period of the year
Most outbreaks occur during the late fall and winter months. Influenza's transmission is hindered by heat.

Fatality rate of Influenza
The worst outbreak of Influenza (1918 pandemic) had a 2.5% fatality rate. Normal Influenza has a fatality rate of 0.1% (or 1 in 1000 people). The data is currently insufficient to rate the current H1N1 swine flu.

Summary: No reason to worry yet. It's not Influenza's season, there is a massive mobilization in developed countries. The virus is affected by common drugs and most people recovered without needing the drugs.

My thoughts go out to those affected in Mexico and the surrounding areas and I hope that you, your friends and family will be safe. Best precaution is to wash your hands regularly.

[DigoDragon]

Okay, I washed my hands and I'm eating a Florida orange. I'm prepared.
(I'm surprised that washing your hands isn't as popular as it should be. It's surprisingly effective in fighting off diseases)

[Reinholdt]

@^ that sounds like a smart course of action. I'll be chilling over there in the corner, in case you need me.
Get out of my corner! We're quarantined over here.
*hides behind his fort made out of pillows and bedsheets*

Yeah, I've never been too concerned about these things cause there's so little to be done about it. At least in my mind. One of those, if it happens, it happens sort of things.

[The Bushranger]

Phoe kinda stole my thunder here a little. :smalltongue: But yeah, remember this time last year it was the bird flu that was going to kill us all. So I'm enjoying my tea and orange juice and having no worries, mate...

Oh, and Skippy: :smallbiggrin:

[Helanna]

I remember waaaay back when I was a young'un, and bird flu was threatening to become a pandemic! I was actually really scared for a while, but then I realized that there really wasn't a reason to worry. I have a tendency to worry about things I can't control, though, so that probably had a lot to do with it.

Also, I'm a bit ticked off. Yesterday, I saw this thread and I thought "Swine flu, huh? Never even heard of it. Ah well, it's down in Mexico, isn't it? There's most of North America separating me and Mexico, I'm sure by the time it spreads up here we'll be better informed."

Guess who found out her state capital had at least 8 diagnosed cases by this morning. Argh. Alright then, handwashing it is, not that I don't do that anyway.

[Collin152]

I knew I shouldn't have told that scary looking man on Horseback named Pestillence which way south was...

[chiasaur11]

I knew I shouldn't have told that scary looking man on Horseback named Pestillence which way south was...

Don't worry.

I hear he retired.

I mean, I told a nice guy named Bill (you'd know him if you met him, kinda tall, robed, bit thin) the way to your house for a visit next week, No reason to assume a stranger is a horseman of the apocolypse.

Weird, though. Guy spoke in all caps.

[Frogpop]

Probably best.

Out of 1,000 cases only 80 dead....a world wide prep action....worry about sure, but don't panic.
Unfortunately, that's 8% so far. The 1918 flu pandemic had a mortality rate of 3-4 percent.. and it killed from 40 to 100 million people depending on your source. I think as (likely) gamers, most of can relate to some really unlucky die rolls in our pasts. 8% is a heck of a thing to bet your life on!


Phoe kinda stole my thunder here a little. :smalltongue: But yeah, remember this time last year it was the bird flu that was going to kill us all. So I'm enjoying my tea and orange juice and having no worries, mate...
The bird flu didn't develop any human to human transmissible strains, so the only people that got it, got it from direct contact with birds. Any infected bird populations we found were eradicated. Piece of cake! Swine flew is already human to human, wherein lies (one of) the problem(s).

[Innis Cabal]

Yes, but the Sars had the very same survival rating. That 92% isn't anything to sneeze at.

There have been no deaths in America last I heard...and according to several sources there -are- medicines that we have that helps fight it.

[Frogpop]

Tamiflu has shown effectiveness if taken in the first few days of symptoms, which is good! The U.S. government has an emergency stockpile of 50 million courses of treatment.. for a country that has, uh.. more than 50 million people. That's less good.

So wash your hands and keep a low profile until we get a better picture of how this thing is going to play out.

[Haruki-kun]

Apparently 1000 people have been discharged and sent home, fully recovered. It appears the disease is only deadly if it does not receive medical attention. We've been told to seek medical attention at any signs of flu.

So it is pretty scary, but.... I guess this is good news. It only has a 7% mortality rate.

[Skippy]

Tamiflu has shown effectiveness if taken in the first few days of symptoms, which is good! The U.S. government has an emergency stockpile of 50 million courses of treatment.. for a country that has, uh.. more than 50 million people. That's less good.

So wash your hands and keep a low profile until we get a better picture of how this thing is going to play out.

An important warning has been issued: Don't medicate yourself! If you have the symptoms, go to the medic ASAP or things could get worse.

[SurlySeraph]

It's in my city now! Fun! I'm just going to stay away from the area it was reported. And any kids who look like they're from that area. And kids. And people who look like they sometimes spend time near kids. And people who allow kids to be within their line of sight. And anyone who isn't following all the same precautions that I am.
If you need me, I'll be under a pile of surgical masks and air filters.
SurlySeraph: succumbing to unnecessary paranoia since 1991.

[SDF]

Unfortunately, that's 8% so far. The 1918 flu pandemic had a mortality rate of 3-4 percent.. and it killed from 40 to 100 million people depending on your source. I think as (likely) gamers, most of can relate to some really unlucky die rolls in our pasts. 8% is a heck of a thing to bet your life on!

The 8% doesn't mean anything though, and is not indicative of the actual mortality rate. The H1N1 outbreak of 1918 infected between 350 to 400 million people, about 20% of the worlds population at the time. 1000 cases is a statistically insignificant figure and of no value as a sample size. Unless the swine flu goes pandemic on a global scale we will probably never be able to accurately compare them.

The only treatment you get for the flu is symptomatic treatment that won't have an effect on the virus itself. In the vast majority of cases pneumonia is what kills you when you have the flu and people admitted to the hospital most commonly get rimantadine or amantadine to treat the pneumonia. The flu also causes malnourishment and dehydration from diarrhea and vomiting which is easily combated with fluid intake. Death from fever or secondary infection due to immunodeficiency can also occur but are much rarer, yet still treatable.

[Frogpop]

That's why I said "so far". If we all keep licking travelers returning from Mexico while we wait to get a statistically significant sample of the planet's population it would be too late to act on such data should it point to a disease with pandemic potential.

Tamiflu (oseltamivir) is an antiviral that treats the disease not just the symptoms, and is one of the two that have shown promising results as mentioned earlier:

Drugs and recovery
Most of the previously reported swine influenza cases recovered fully from the disease without requiring medical attention and without antiviral medicines. The viruses obtained from the recent human cases with swine influenza in the United States were sensitive to oselatmivir and zanamivir but resistant to amantadine and remantadine.

[IsaacTheHungry]

i hate to scare people but i have to tell what i know

i have read about SARS and the bird flu outbreaks very carefully, and until now evey outbreak had a low person to person transmission rate which is why i never worred about it because the slow rate of tranfer made it easy to contain.

This one moves fast, very fast.

the WHO has raised its alert to level 4, the WHO has never gone above 3 before

The WHO also says containment it not an option right now

here is some more info from the AP

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/med_swine_flu

[turkishproverb]

Unfortunately, that's 8% so far. The 1918 flu pandemic had a mortality rate of 3-4 percent.. and it killed from 40 to 100 million people depending on your source. I think as (likely) gamers, most of can relate to some really unlucky die rolls in our pasts. 8% is a heck of a thing to bet your life on!

The first number is an infected rate, If I remember right,t eh second number was an overall area population rate. This years flu's got nothing on 1918.


The 8% doesn't mean anything though, and is not indicative of the actual mortality rate. The H1N1 outbreak of 1918 infected between 350 to 400 million people, about 20% of the worlds population at the time. 1000 cases is a statistically insignificant figure and of no value as a sample size. Unless the swine flu goes pandemic on a global scale we will probably never be able to accurately compare them.

The only treatment you get for the flu is symptomatic treatment that won't have an effect on the virus itself. In the vast majority of cases pneumonia is what kills you when you have the flu and people admitted to the hospital most commonly get rimantadine or amantadine to treat the pneumonia. The flu also causes malnourishment and dehydration from diarrhea and vomiting which is easily combated with fluid intake. Death from fever or secondary infection due to immunodeficiency can also occur but are much rarer, yet still treatable.


Also what he said.


i hate to scare people but i have to tell what i know

i have read about SARS and the bird flu outbreaks very carefully, and until now evey outbreak had a low person to person transmission rate which is why i never worred about it because the slow rate of tranfer made it easy to contain.

This one moves fast, very fast.

the WHO has raised its alert to level 4, the WHO has never gone above 3 before

The WHO also says containment it not an option right now

here is some more info from the AP

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/med_swine_flu


As to WHO, well, that is a little concerning, but not as much as you'd think. They DID noticably revise their alert system in 2004, so this being their first level 4 in only 5 years isn't too big a deal.

[Innis Cabal]

i hate to scare people but i have to tell what i know

i have read about SARS and the bird flu outbreaks very carefully, and until now evey outbreak had a low person to person transmission rate which is why i never worred about it because the slow rate of tranfer made it easy to contain.

This one moves fast, very fast.

the WHO has raised its alert to level 4, the WHO has never gone above 3 before

The WHO also says containment it not an option right now

here is some more info from the AP

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/med_swine_flu

In that link they even say its not a global emergency yet....the media -always- tries scare tactics. Sorry.

[Frogpop]

So if the media tries to scare us, we shouldn't worry because that's just what they do?
And if they don't try to scare us, we shouldn't worry because that means all is well?

Seems to me that in the last decade "the media" has been asleep at the switch (or at least well behind the curve) just as often as they've been too quick to the panic button: tech bubble, Fundamentalism, Iraqi WMD intel, subprime lending crisis, real estate bubble, TARP and bailouts, etc..

Anyway, not all media are created equal. NPR, PBS, CNN, and Yahoo/AP have all been very straightforward and informative over the weekend in my opinion. I appreciate being made aware of things and at no time felt like I was being pushed to panic by any of the sources I was checking out. Besides, Yahoo didn't say it isn't a global crisis, Yahoo reported that the World Health Organization hasn't declared it a global crisis. That's a big difference. These kind of things.. global health crisis, recessions, depressions, they're always declared or labeled well after the event is underway.

I think concern is the proper approach in most circumstances. Panic does no good for anyone, but ignorance in a possible public health crisis has the potential for real harm.

[thubby]

last i checked, car accidents kill more people in the united states. when that changes, I'll start worrying.

of course, I'm pretty much a hermit to begin with. so...

[banjo1985]

We have this in the UK now, two confirmed cases in Falkirk and another 14 being tested. I'm still not particularly worried though, as it seems that the flu as it is currently responds very well to treatment, and that most people who have recovered from it haven't even required hospital treatment.

Still, the easy passage from human to human is a worry, and it makes me think we really are going to have a pandemic. The scientisty types have said they estimate a 2% mortality rate. Doesn't sound much, but that's a heck of a lot of people. :smalleek:

[SoD]

Oh dear. Swine flu. We're taking the p!ss out of that in our UNI review, which, to be honest, worries me slightly. If it was something minor and unimportant, it wouldn't be showing onstage. Yesterday it was Mexico, USA, Canada and New Zealand. Apparantly Tassie ourself (island at the bottom of Australia) has 3 people with suspected cases. 70 people in Australia being tested.

Ah well, we're overdue for a pandemic anyhoo, and nature seems to be throwing what she can at us over the past few years. SARS, Bird flu, so we're not overdue on lack of trying on her behalf. Might as well grin and bare it, eh?

[Telonius]

Helpful guide here (http://www.xkcd.com/574/).

[Kantur]

We have this in the UK now, two confirmed cases in Falkirk and another 14 being tested. I'm still not particularly worried though, as it seems that the flu as it is currently responds very well to treatment, and that most people who have recovered from it haven't even required hospital treatment.


Falkirk? Hmm, closer than I'd like, but there's not much I can do about it other than keep an eye on my own health.

[Bonecrusher Doc]

There are a lot of people on here saying "I'm not worried." Maybe it's just me being too sensitive but I would like some clarification.

I am in Germany, and I am not going to panic, and I'm not really feeling worried for myself or those around me at this time. However I am worried for the people of Mexico. I suspect that most everybody else feels this way too, it's just that when I see somebody write "It's really nothing to worry about," I think that would make me very angry if I was in Mexico or had relatives there.

[thubby]

There are a lot of people on here saying "I'm not worried." Maybe it's just me being too sensitive but I would like some clarification.

I am in Germany, and I am not going to panic, and I'm not really feeling worried for myself or those around me at this time. However I am worried for the people of Mexico. I suspect that most everybody else feels this way too, it's just that when I see somebody write "It's really nothing to worry about," I think that would make me very angry if I was in Mexico or had relatives there.

it's all relative. how does this stack up to whatever other problems they have?

[Crimmy]

The government here declared state of emergency and granted special powers to the president to cancel flights, close schools, as well as any other mass-gathering place near the capital, including night clubs, movie theaters, and restaurants. Several countries in Europe and Asia have completely blocked all flights in and out of their countries. Drug stores here are all out of surgical masks because people are buying them for protection.

Yes, it is something to be worried about.

You were saying?

Yes, I am writing this because I can't go to school until May the 6th...

[multilis]

Unfortunately, that's 8% so far. The 1918 flu pandemic had a mortality rate of 3-4 percent.. and it killed from 40 to 100 million people depending on your source. I think as (likely) gamers, most of can relate to some really unlucky die rolls in our pasts. 8% is a heck of a thing to bet your life on!
It *started* higher than 8% but rate usually goes down with time, eventually will likely be much lower.

Hurting/killing the host too much reduces chances of spreading to others, so with time the flu will become more similar to "normal" flu, but on downside it will spread faster.

IF in a really bad case, flu manages to infect 1 billion people and kill 2% of them, that is still 20 million people and trillions of dollars in costs which is why they are so eager to minimize the chances.

[golentan]

There are a lot of people on here saying "I'm not worried." Maybe it's just me being too sensitive but I would like some clarification.

I am in Germany, and I am not going to panic, and I'm not really feeling worried for myself or those around me at this time. However I am worried for the people of Mexico. I suspect that most everybody else feels this way too, it's just that when I see somebody write "It's really nothing to worry about," I think that would make me very angry if I was in Mexico or had relatives there.

Eh. I'm in the close in area. There a 5 people I know showing flu symptoms. I'm not worried. I sort of burned out on worrying about plagues, or mortality, or their ilk a while ago. All the people I know will die, there's not a whole lot I can do to stop that. I give good advice, and just make sure I appreciate the fact they're around now.

This illness is fast, and all, but the mortality rate seems to be lower than spanish flu. I know that seems callous, but I just am not getting worked up about this, and can't even bring myself to get worried on behalf of some of those I care about. This isn't a terrible threat compared to some of what I've seen. The death rate is about on par with than that associated with fog in london before the clean air act. The great smog of 1952 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog_of_1952) was the one most people remember due to it being the most recent, but there were similar scale hits in the 1800s.

[Recaiden]

I'm a bit worried. More than I was about previous pandemic scares. Maybe because there are cases within a few miles of me within 2 days of my hearing about it.

[reorith]

sooo am i the only pro extinction person in this thread? 99.9% of all species that have existed are now extinct and it is a blatant display of anthrohubris to assume that some how because we can reason and use tools, we shouldn't go the way of stalker's sea cow, the auroch, the trilobite or any member of the genus homo that isn't us. i for one, welcome our new viral overlords. we've taken the natural out of natural selection with vaccines and health care and cooking and killing off apex predators. maybe humanity has run its course. we're about 15 years away from having 8 billion people on this planet. oh well.

[chiasaur11]

sooo am i the only pro extinction person in this thread? 99.9% of all species that have existed are now extinct and it is a blatant display of anthrohubris to assume that some how because we can reason and use tools, we shouldn't go the way of stalker's sea cow, the auroch, the trilobite or any member of the genus homo that isn't us. i for one, welcome our new viral overlords. we've taken the natural out of natural selection with vaccines and health care and cooking and killing off apex predators. maybe humanity has run its course. we're about 15 years away from having 8 billion people on this planet. oh well.

Yes, you are.

And either we're more than natural, in which case we do have a right to dominance or at least existence from an external source, or we are natural, in which case we're doing the same thing as everybody else, only better and thus, you know, we deserve to win.

[Innis Cabal]

Go lick a pig then? I mean...if thats how you really feel. But those of who want to live will continue to do things to make sure we don't die.

And anyway, isn't natural selection about survival of the smartest, strongest, and most able species? Humans are all that with our inventions. Besides, none of those creatures you listed actually went extinct, they evolved and became other animals. Thats hardly supporting the idea that we are doing anything against "nature"


And whats to say nature is any kinder to the next thing that takes our place? Or would be if we were never here? Its not like humans are the only ones who can wipe out a species.

[Alleine]

When I hear swine flu it just makes me hungry.
Swine -> pig = bacon + ham
So yeah, maybe I'm weird?

Also not really worried. Maybe I will worry eventually, but only if its worth it. No reason to get hyped up if it never reaches me, or doesn't affect me.

[Pancho Villa]

You first, Reorith.

Anyway, the lethality rate of swine flu is far below what the avian flu was. This is good and bad. The good part is, of course, its less lethal as a % of victims infected. The bad part is, the avian flu's relatively high lethality and quick onset time meant that it had difficulty spreading that this particular swine flu wouldn't.

Still, no reason to panic as yet. The flu hasn't even really reached epidemic scales yet, let alone pandemic scales. If you're youngish and healthy, good news is that the method by which older pandemics killed people (overactive immune system causes you to basically catch pneumonia, which is actually what kills you when healthy people die from the flu,) can be treated in the US and most other major western countries if caught early.

The best way to deal with any anxiety connected with swine flu is preparedness. Have at least a few days, if not a month or more, of cheap food (rice, beans, spices, dried meat, etc.) packed away. Rotate through it every so often to keep stocks fresh and to take advantage of the cheapness of bulk bought foods. Keep stocks of water if you can. Research your calorie, nutritional and water needs and stock accordingly. Basically, be prepared for the possible need to stay home for an extended period of time. Bright side: you're also now prepared for any natural or manmade disaster, so you can stop being anxious about major earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes (unless you live below the high water mark,) riots and whatever else.

tl;dr - chill out, stock up on food and water, and if you are pro-human-extinction jump off a cliff.

[reorith]

snipppped

And anyway, isn't natural selection about survival of the smartest, strongest, and most able species? Humans are all that with our inventions. Besides, none of those creatures you listed actually went extinct, they evolved and became other animals. Thats hardly supporting the idea that we are doing anything against "nature"


And whats to say nature is any kinder to the next thing that takes our place? Or would be if we were never here? Its not like humans are the only ones who can wipe out a species.

by choosing which agents of natural selection influence our population, we cheat the system. and who cares what nature does to whatever comes next, we'll all be dead.

also, what did steller's sea cow evolve into in the span of 241 years?

[Pancho Villa]

There is no specific reason for any individual to care about natural selection or the making of the human race more efficient genetically.

If you are some weird species-collectivist (which is even weirder than a marxist) I suppose it might be internally consistent, at least, but still pretty dumb. There's no reason for any individual to want to purposefully lower their quality and/or length of life simply for some vague "genetic strength of the species" goal. There is nothing wrong with replacing strong genes with strong technology. It is a demonstration of the particular and (to date) unique method of survival that humans exhibit, namely, instead of adapting to their environment, they adapt their environments to them.

[reorith]

Pancho Villa, you seem like a pretty cool guy and you've made some very valid points, if you'd care to continue this discussion without further derailing the thread, you can reach me on aim, my screen name is iamchrishansen69.

mexico is tightening travel restrictions and pig farms in the us are employing stricter biosecurity measures. schade.

[Collin152]

Psh, extinction? That's for you Homo Sapiens Sapiens to go through. Me? My status as Homo Sapiens Superior has rendered me protected from anything that doesn't immediatley knock out my entire brain's functionality.

[Alteran]

Psh, extinction? That's for you Homo Sapiens Sapiens to go through. Me? My status as Homo Sapiens Superior has rendered me protected from anything that doesn't immediatley knock out my entire brain's functionality.

Well, say hello to the decerebrator here...
I'm afraid I have nothing on-topic to contribute.
*whirring noise*

[golentan]

Psh, extinction? That's for you Homo Sapiens Sapiens to go through. Me? My status as Homo Sapiens Superior has rendered me protected from anything that doesn't immediatley knock out my entire brain's functionality.

As I have taken an oath to protect lower intelligent life forms from exploitation, I have dispatched a number of hunter killer drones. Thank you for identifying yourself, please surrender so we can identify whether you are "Homo Superior" and thus worth using to enhance the population, or are not of the genus Homo and thus constitute an external threat to be deported/eliminated.

Humans haven't run their course, and their fitness function appears to be increasing to some degree. Also, as a part of nature, it should be their goal to increase their fitness function by any means. Generalists survive most disasters, specialists thrive in their absence. Humans have hit a combinatorial point: and a gorgeous one at that. By being hand/brain specialists to an insane degree, they are capable of simulating generalists for most cases.

Also, increasing the fitness function further should be possible inside a few decades with voluntary eugenics programs and gene selection or engineering. Just be sure you keep a database of everything (everything you use, everything you increase, decrease, create, destroy, or replace) just in case.

[The Extinguisher]

We're still in flu season, are we not? I'm guessing 90% of people with "flu-like symptoms" have the regular flu thats floating around or are hypochondriacs who are panicking.
Sigh. Global panicking and sensationalism. Again?

Also: oh god my arm hurts is this swine flu guys?

[Rutskarn]

I hadn't even heard about it until a few days ago.

Honestly, I haven't the slightest bit of worry about it.

[Alteran]

Also: oh god my arm hurts is this swine flu guys?

That sounds more like syphilis. What did you say you did with that pig?
I assume for the purpose of this response that you are quoting the XKCD from Monday.

[Pyrian]

We're still in flu season, are we not?Not really. At least, not at most North American climates.

[Avilan the Grey]

So far this seems mostly to be Fearmongering from papers that wants to sell copies.

As far as I know, we now know that:

1) The virus is a new mutation <--- Bad
2) It is NOT as likely to spread from person to person as regular flu <--- GOOD

There is also indicators that show that it is less deadly than regular flu.
Basically, what is business as usual is not news. Just like the news never tell about every singe car accident, we have not known how many people that actually dies every year from regular "flu" flu.

I am not particularly worried. It might be a pandemic (but then, so is "regular" flu, every year). But it is not a plague. Just because a disease is spread across the entire world, does not mean it is the new Ebola or Black Death. There are far more dangerous diseases and bugs out there (flesh eating super bacteria is making surgery more and more risky every year; the strongest strains of that bacteria now only responds to one (1) type of antibiotics... The same with TBC, that old favorite that is coming back to haunt us.

[GoC]

i'm going to head to madagascar before they shut down their only seaport.

:smallbiggrin:

[Serpentine]

Besides, none of those creatures you listed actually went extinct, they evolved and became other animals. Thats hardly supporting the idea that we are doing anything against "nature"Erm... No, the sea cow was eaten to death. By humans. Yah...
On human extinction: I'm just gonna take the slow way. Just have two kids (one for mum, one for dad), and raise one of them to be gay :smallwink:
On the 'flu: There have only been 7 deaths confirmed from this virus, out of the hundreds or whatever reported, all of them just in Mexico. We should be more worried about malaria...

Dr. Mum had a hypochondriac lady come in convinced she had bird flu. Mum asked her whether she'd been making out with any chickens. She had not. She did not have bird flu.

[Recaiden]

I read that there is now 1 confirmed death from swine flu in the USA. Not many, but not good.

[Ryuuk]

Hmm, well I hope things don't get too bad. CNN just reported some 150 deaths, 2500 cases and the first death in the US (Granted, it was a 23 month old Mexican child taken to Texas for treatment.) Right after that though, they said the first case appeared in a 5 year old boy who seems to have fully recovered.

Don't really know what to think. A bit nervous, all schools have been closed since the 27th until the sixth and sitting here watching the news probably isn't too reassuring. A rumor says that there were two cases here, but who knows? Worrying won't help, so it'd probably be best to just be careful.

[Serpentine]

Like I said: As of... early this afternoon, only 7 of the 100+ "swine flu deaths" have been confirmed in a laboratory. How many of those 2500+ cases, do you think, have been laboratory-confirmed as this particular strange, and not Regular Ol' Human Flu?

edit: 79, apparently. (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/29/2555794.htm)Incidentally... (http://www.disastercenter.com/cdc/disease.htm)

[Ryuuk]

Like I said: As of... early this afternoon, only 7 of the 100+ "swine flu deaths" have been confirmed in a laboratory. How many of those 2500+ cases, do you think, have been laboratory-confirmed as this particular strange, and not Regular Ol' Human Flu?

edit: 79, apparently. (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/29/2555794.htm)Incidentally... (http://www.disastercenter.com/cdc/disease.htm)

Really? Just 7 and 79 confirmed? You'd think that would be one of the first things they report. Well, fear and panic sells, its really that simple isn't it?

[Frogpop]

We have 91 confirmed cases in the US alone, so those numbers seem a little low.


Dr. Richard Besser, the acting chief of the Centers for Disease Control, said in Atlanta that there are confirmed cases now in ten states, with 51 in New York, 14 in California and 16 in Texas. Two cases have been confirmed in Kansas, Massachusetts and Michigan, while a single cases have been reported in Arizona, Indiana, Nevada and Ohio.( http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090429/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu )

This wikipedia tally is broken down by country and suspected/probable/confirmed:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_outbreak

[Supagoof]

We're still in flu season, are we not? I'm guessing 90% of people with "flu-like symptoms" have the regular flu thats floating around or are hypochondriacs who are panicking.
Sigh. Global panicking and sensationalism. Again?

Also: oh god my arm hurts is this swine flu guys?
XKCD (http://www.xkcd.com/574/) - Gotta love em Especially the Madagascar reference. :smallbiggrin:

[valadil]

Two kids were diagnosed in Lowell MA. They were diagnosed at Mass General Hospital, where I work. I'm finally beginning to panic...

[Alteran]

he first few cases of Swine Flu just appeared in the area outside of my city. It seems to be spreading quickly, but I'm still not panicking. It seems that it responds well to treatment, which means if you get treated you'll probably be fine. It doesn't look like we're in for another Spanish Flu.

[Jack Squat]

Found this pic.

http://i41.tinypic.com/2mg8kuc.jpg

[Leta]

It's fine... if I catch the flu, I'll just go up to some jerk I hate and sneeze on him. Then it would totally be worth it. Yeahhhhh.

[Avilan the Grey]

he first few cases of Swine Flu just appeared in the area outside of my city. It seems to be spreading quickly, but I'm still not panicking. It seems that it responds well to treatment, which means if you get treated you'll probably be fine. It doesn't look like we're in for another Spanish Flu.

Of course not.

What bothers me still is the fear-mongering that the media does, unfortunately also in combination with medical companies that wants grants from governments to manufacture flu vaccine.
If you filter the media well enough you catch the facts that are almost drowned, which points to this not being particularly dangerous at all.

[Kyouhen]

Yeah, the media really gets on my nerves with all of this. There's still only one confirmed death outside of Mexico, and it was a toddler. Same type of person who dies from normal flu. Not to mention the toddler was a Mexican. Strange how only Mexicans seem to be dying from it. I think there should be more reports on that than on how terrifying the virus is.

[Ganurath]

Yeah, the media really gets on my nerves with all of this. There's still only one confirmed death outside of Mexico, and it was a toddler. Same type of person who dies from normal flu. Not to mention the toddler was a Mexican. Strange how only Mexicans seem to be dying from it. I think there should be more reports on that than on how terrifying the virus is.Given that one of the ways Swine Flu has the capacity to kill people, it makes sense, what with Mexico being hotter than most areas of the world. More importantly, although not based on any reliable source, I've been made to understand that the water in Mexico can cause health problems like diarhea that make things worse. Got flu, get weakened by diarhea, drink water to replenish fluids, get weakened by diarhea, drink water to replenish fluids... Downward spiral.

[dresdor]

To take your mind off of dying, I recommend this game:

Pandemic 2 (http://www.crazymonkeygames.com/Pandemic-2.html)

[Kyouhen]

To take your mind off of dying, I recommend this game:

Pandemic 2 (http://www.crazymonkeygames.com/Pandemic-2.html)

And that's why we must all flee to Madagascar.

[Hyozo]

Found this pic.

*removed for length*

That also makes me wonder why my college hasn't noticed that Lethargy is a symptom of pre-finals all-nighters and most of the rest are symptoms of absolutely horrible cafeteria food. There shouldn't be such a Swine flu scare this far from Mexico

[banjo1985]

Hmmm, two suspected cases 50 miles from my location, it be creeping closer. Not particularly worried, as it's already been said that it's going to be near impossible to contain this thing. A lot of people are going to get the flu, and most will recover. Some won't, and that's worrying and sad, but for the most part pretty unavoidable now.

What worries me are teh chances of this flu getting to Africa or somewhere like that, where they really don't have the infrastructure to fight against it...there's your pandemic and your millions of deaths right there. :smallfrown:

[Anuan]

Everyone should look up the number of deaths caused by regular flu in the same period of time as swine flu's been around, then see if they're still worried.

[Ilena]

Erm, i saw something about swine flu on a comic site, making fun of peoples panics, i just asumed it was a joke, then yesterday someone was talking about it and i was like, ? what the is swine flu .... noone has explained it to me yet :D yes i have been lazy and not bothered to go look online for information but ya ... i asume its pig related considering the swine part .... and possibly some new deadly flu from what i read here .... well if it becomes a plague let me know then and ill be worried ....

[GoC]

sooo am i the only pro extinction person in this thread? 99.9% of all species that have existed are now extinct and it is a blatant display of anthrohubris to assume that some how because we can reason and use tools, we shouldn't go the way of stalker's sea cow, the auroch, the trilobite or any member of the genus homo that isn't us. i for one, welcome our new viral overlords. we've taken the natural out of natural selection with vaccines and health care and cooking and killing off apex predators. maybe humanity has run its course. we're about 15 years away from having 8 billion people on this planet. oh well.

*checks definition of hubris
Overbearing pride
*checks definition of overbearing
Overwhelming in power or significance
*concludes that due to the lack of context on what exactly is being overwhelmed hubris is too imprecise to have meaning
*wonders what weird system of ethics reorith is using

[mangosta71]

It's funny. The population of the US is outraged at the Mexicans for allowing this virus to crop up, but it's been shown to have originated from a US owned and operated farm. Specifically, a farm that the owners set up in Mexico so that they wouldn't have to follow the sanitation and environmental standards required at home, and the local populace has been complaining about the place for years.

Add the fact that the first reported cases of the flu in the US were from a group of students from New York that went to Mexico for one of their silly little "mission trip" things in which they sit around feeling superior to the people they're supposedly there to help and basically spend the whole time they're there screwing around.

I just find the irony delicious.

[Kyouhen]

Everyone should look up the number of deaths caused by regular flu in the same period of time as swine flu's been around, then see if they're still worried.

The key difference between normal flu and swine flu is that deaths caused by normal flu are in the very young and very old, while swine flu fits the category of "Healthy Adult". Of course, only people in Mexico have died thus far and the only death outside of Mexico was a Mexican infant.

[RTGoodman]

HERE (http://junkfoodscience.blogspot.com/2009/04/swine-flu-update-april-29-2009.html)'s a pretty interesting blog article thingy.

Also, Do You Have Swine Flu? (http://doihaveswineflu.org/)

[Helanna]

Well, a girl in my school is being checked for swine flu. She's on my tennis team, but other than that I never see her. It's a very small school though, so if one person gets it it's likely a lot of others will too. How many people have to get it before they close school?

My mom freaked out a bit when she heard, she actually wanted me and my sister to skip school tomorrow. She told my grandmother about it though, and my grandma said she was being a bit ridiculous about it. Which is true, but I wouldn't mind skipping school . . .

[A Rainy Knight]

It saddens me that, in some places, people hear the words 'swine flu' and start slaughtering pigs in a misguided attempt to slow the spread of the virus. Other people swear off of pork because of the word 'swine.'

It's actually called Influenza A(H1N1), not 'swine flu.' Most of its spread now appears to be person to person. It is extremely unlikely that any given swine will have the virus. I wish that people in general could look past the simple, easy-to-say name in favor of the actual term for the virus. (What, Influenza A(H1N1) doesn't just roll off your tongue? :smalltongue:)

[xPANCAKEx]

http://doihaveswineflu.org/

all you need to know

[Poison_Fish]

Everyone should look up the number of deaths caused by regular flu in the same period of time as swine flu's been around, then see if they're still worried.

Beat me to it..

A lot of the panic is truthfully misplaced. Is it a worry? Yes, in some sense. But most cases aren't anymore "lethal" then regular flu.

[Hell Puppi]

It saddens me that, in some places, people hear the words 'swine flu' and start slaughtering pigs in a misguided attempt to slow the spread of the virus. Other people swear off of pork because of the word 'swine.'

It's actually called Influenza A(H1N1), not 'swine flu.' Most of its spread now appears to be person to person. It is extremely unlikely that any given swine will have the virus. I wish that people in general could look past the simple, easy-to-say name in favor of the actual term for the virus. (What, Influenza A(H1N1) doesn't just roll off your tongue? :smalltongue:)



I prefer 'ManBirdPig' myself.


And no, you can't get it from eating pork, just in case it hasn't been said here yet.

*checks Googlemap of the outbreak* Hey look, Madagascar is still safe. :smalltongue:

[chiasaur11]

http://doihaveswineflu.org/

all you need to know

Is it supposed to say "No. Huddle up with your shotgun. The victims will rise soon, and someone needs to be ready. "?

Because it did that. Then it mentioned me by name and called me humanity's last, worst hope.

It was... odd.

[purple gelatinous cube o' Doom]

The WHO came out today and said that they have 6 confirmed cases due to this flu strain. They also said that it is a weak very of the normal flu most get in the winter. Based on this info, I really don't believe that this is going to turn out to be anything major. I could be wrong, but with the weakness of the strain, and the WHO seemingly on top of things, I really don't think the vast majority have anything to worry about. Most of the hysteria is nothing buy media generated hype.

[Kyouhen]

It saddens me that, in some places, people hear the words 'swine flu' and start slaughtering pigs in a misguided attempt to slow the spread of the virus. Other people swear off of pork because of the word 'swine.'

It's actually called Influenza A(H1N1), not 'swine flu.' Most of its spread now appears to be person to person. It is extremely unlikely that any given swine will have the virus. I wish that people in general could look past the simple, easy-to-say name in favor of the actual term for the virus. (What, Influenza A(H1N1) doesn't just roll off your tongue? :smalltongue:)

I thought I had heard that the original swine flu came from contact with pigs. Live pigs, of course, not bacon. The reason it's stupid to slaughter pigs at this point is because it's spreading from human to human instead of pig to human now.

[gcb001]

a few things that i find irritating about "swine flu"
-First off it has absolutely nothing to do with pigs. Nothing has been proven that it relates to pigs in any way or that it can even be transferred by pigs. So everyone who says "dont eat pork it could be infected!" are a little..."misinformed"
-Second, we honestly have very little statistically to base the mortality/infection rates against. We have very small numbers of people who have tested positive and until those numbers increase and then the mortality rate increases i for one will not be worried.
-Third, so far this strain of influenza H1N1 has proven to be nothing more than a glorified strain of standard influenza (as of yet). Just be clean and practice the standard things: washing hands, be clean, and go to the doc if you do get sick, ect.

[chiasaur11]

I thought I had heard that the original swine flu came from contact with pigs. Live pigs, of course, not bacon. The reason it's stupid to slaughter pigs at this point is because it's spreading from human to human instead of pig to human now.

So, start slaughtering humans, then?

I dunno. I mean, if you're sure...

[SDF]

*checks Googlemap of the outbreak* Hey look, Madagascar is still safe. :smalltongue:

That's because they closed the only seaport. *grumblegrumble*

H1N1 can be confusing terminology as well because there is a seasonal flu strain of H1N1, and several other notable outbreaks with it as well. This strain of H1N1 is different because it combined with H1N2 and H3N2 inside the pig. Each virus has 8 RNA strands that were shared between the various strains forming a mutant hybrid.

[Daschnaya]

Everywhere I go, people are whispering about it. I don't live anywhere near Mexico, but just yesterday I saw someone walking by wearing a face mask.

Incidentally, a deadly disease sweeping the world is one of my worst fears - and this has some potential to come true right now... I am surprisingly okay with this. When I read about outbreaks of diseases in the past, I quake in my boots... but I'm not panicking right now.
Just because I'm scared doesn't mean I have to panic, right?

But if things start hitting the fan, I'm moving to Madagascar... unless they already closed their seaport.
Hopefully, H1N1 won't end the same way my Pandemic 2 XANATOS parasite did - killing all humans.

[Wishpig]

Everywhere I go, people are whispering about it. I don't live anywhere near Mexico, but just yesterday I saw someone walking by wearing a face mask.
.

Grab a handfull of ham, scream "IMPORTED FROM MEXICO," chuck it at them and run!

[SDF]

Hopefully, H1N1 won't end the same way my Pandemic 2 XANATOS parasite did - killing all humans.

That is certainly scarier than my Mr T Virus which killed only New Zealand.

[Naleh]

That is certainly scarier than my Mr T Virus which killed only New Zealand.

Oi!10chars

[mangosta71]

So, start slaughtering humans, then?

I dunno. I mean, if you're sure...

That was how I interpreted that, too.



I'll get my kit.

[Serpentine]

Right, this is what I've got from Dr. Mum during a conversation this afternoon.
She's much more worried about this one than bird flu because, unlike bird flu, this one is transmissible from human to human, whereas bird flu you could only really get if you're regularly in contact with bird spit.
It is found in three animals: Humans, pigs and birds (well, that's a type of animal, but whatever).
It's made up of bits of human and pig influenza, and bird 'flu.
We don't know yet what its fatality rate is, but the Spanish flu, that killed millions of people after the second world war, only had a 4% fatality rate. There could, however, be millions of Mexicans who have had it and haven't even noticed any symptoms, to the 7 killed.
You cannot get it by eating pig products.
The level 5 alert or whatever it is technically means that everyone should be stockpiling 2 weeks of food and water, but that ain't likely to happen. The main big deal is that, with aeroplanes and easy global travel, it could spread everywhere within a very short amount of time, so governments et al need to be prepared.
There are a few theories as to why it attacks healthy young people the worst. One is that the old and very young are routinely immunised against influenza, whereas the middling folk tend to be more casual about it. Thus, the young and old will have some immunity/resistance already. The other is that it's the immune reaction that really makes you sick, and the healthy young folk, with the extra-strong immune systems, hit themselves the hardest.
A hundred or hundreds of people die from normal influenza in Australia every year.

In conclusion: It's more serious than bird flu, and it's good that governments have responded early, but there's no reason to panic as of yet.

[Naleh]

SARS was moving from person to person, wasn't it? Close contact with bird spit would get you bird 'flu, which is a different disease.

[Johnny Blade]

So, start slaughtering humans, then?

I dunno. I mean, if you're sure...
Don't give the Egyptians any ideas, now...

[BizzaroStormy]

Why must there always be some disease making people lose their heads? Bubonic Plague, SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu...whats next? Salmonella Fitzgerald?!?

Seriously, its just getting stupid. There were kids at my school actually wearing the medical masks thinking it would protect them. Those masks leave a fairly large gap around the nose and mouth and arent woven tight enough to prevent the passage of the disease.

Madagascar doesn't have to worry though, all they need to do is shut down their only port and they'll be fine.

[NikkTheTrick]

Haven't posted in a long while (and probably no one knows me here) but today I feel my regular flu symptoms (coughing, feeling like something is in lungs, muscle ache and other fun stuff :smallyuk:). So, I might have this one (though might have "regular" one). What am I gonna do? Stay at home, drink plenty of water and have a rest. Also, I have an excuse to build another Dwarf Fortress on a Haunted Glacier that will end up in horrors that would make Boatmurdered seem like a resort.

Too bad I am skipping wonderful warm (up to +20 C!) days I have been waiting for through the whole Endonton winter, but oh well!

Now, I have a biochemistry degree, so there are some things I understand about flu in general and can make some judgement about the current one.

First of all, the term "swine flu" while techiacally correct is misleading. The first transfer to humans occured from pigs, but now the disease is a human one. Chance for an individual to get it from pigs is very low. Slaughtring pigs is outright idiotic.

The flu WILL spread. That is just the way flu is - it has very easy time infecting humans. It will spread from human to human the way regular flu does. Since nowadays people travel around the globe a lot and fast, having the impact felt globally is inevitable. Looks like even the dreaded Madagascar, AKA "the last <censored> bastion of Humanity", will not avoid getting hit :smallwink:

Now, let us get to differences between this A(H1N1) and "regular" flu.
- No human is immune to it yet, so it will have very easy time infecting humans. Hence, we will see "waves" of A(H1N1) passing though the globe. Waves will be a few months apart.
- We do not have a vaccine. We will in a few months, but not yet. So, to all people you hear complaining "why does not government give us shots?!" you can say "Shots of what? Vodka? Tequilla? 'Cuz there is no vaccine!".
- The way illness proceeds may be different from "regular" flu.

From what it looks so far, symptoms are not much different from regular flu. If that is so, we basically end up with a "common" flu that we are likely to get. If you are overall healthy, that means that the worst thing that will happen to you in being stuck in bed for a week. If you are one of the first ones to get infected, you also get some bragging rights (and I am going to use mine :smallbiggrin:).

There are 2 ways flu usually kills:
1. Secondary infection. While we are sick, our immune system is weak and we are likely to get some other disease that will kill us. Usually, that is the reason for flu-related deaths among the elderly. Keep in mind that "regular" flu kills about 36000 in US and 4000 in Canada every year.
2. Cytokine storm. There is a theory that this is what made 1918 "Spanish Flu" so deadly. Flu itself is not too dangerous, but our immune system might over-react to it. Essentially, a strong immune system becomes a liability rather than an asset. The immune system, designed to save us, ends up killing us. Fortunately, it looks like that is not the case with A(H1N1) :smallsmile:

So, there is no reason to panic. In fact panic is NEVER a good idea, but now you don't even have an excuse :smalltongue: . That does not mean that you should be negligent. Just act responsibly:
- Wash your hands regularly.
- If you cough, always cough in a disposable towel/napkin or in your hand and then wosh it.
- If you think you are sick, stay at home and rest.

That is how you can do your part in slowing the spread of the disease.

Sorry for the long rant, have a nice day and enjoy the weather :smallsmile:

[Innis Cabal]

Why must there always be some disease making people lose their heads? Bubonic Plague, SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu...whats next? Salmonella Fitzgerald?!?

Seriously, its just getting stupid. There were kids at my school actually wearing the medical masks thinking it would protect them. Those masks leave a fairly large gap around the nose and mouth and arent woven tight enough to prevent the passage of the disease.

Madagascar doesn't have to worry though, all they need to do is shut down their only port and they'll be fine.

They do in fact help, it is a medical fact.

[Serpentine]

SARS was moving from person to person, wasn't it? Close contact with bird spit would get you bird 'flu, which is a different disease.You're right. I thought they were different, but was told they're the same. Spoot. Well, SARS was serious. Bird flu, which this seems to be mostly getting compared to, was not so much. I'll go fix my post :smalltongue:

[Innis Cabal]

Your also forgetting the survival rate of Swine Flu has yet to be recorded, so calling it serious is...misleading

[Jimorian]

You're right. I thought they were different, but was told they're the same. Spoot. Well, SARS was serious. Bird flu, which this seems to be mostly getting compared to, was not so much. I'll go fix my post :smalltongue:

The big problem with Bird Flu only comes up if it mutates into something that is transmittable between humans. When it gets transmitted from bird-->human, the mortality rate is high, but the overall number of cases is pretty low.

The reason they have to be REALLY aggressive with killing any possibly infected birds is that the more times humans do catch it, the odds of that mutation happening go way up.

Swine Flu has a similar mechanism for crossing species and mutating into something bad, but since we're more closely related, it's both good and bad news.

Good news is that our immune system can handle it somewhat better and the mortality rate isn't as bad as bird flu. Bad news is that the mutation is more likely to occur, so it happens more often.

[Serpentine]

You're also forgetting the survival rate of Swine Flu has yet to be recorded, so calling it serious is...misleadingFirst of all, not necessarily, and secondly, I did say that. To quote myself:
We don't know yet what its fatality rate is, but the Spanish flu, that killed millions of people after the second world war, only had a 4% fatality rate. There could, however, be millions of Mexicans who have had it and haven't even noticed any symptoms, to the 7 killed.To put it better: It could either be 7 (8 now?) to the <100 confirmed non-fatal cases - or something like a 7ish% fatality rate, which seems pretty high. Or, there could have been a million other non-fatal cases of swine flu that weren't diagnosed as such, resulting in a fatality rate of something along the lines of 0.0000007%. We just don't know how serious it is in this regard - and in any case, a high survival rate could just mean that it will spread easier and further. So no, I don't think I was misleading.

[Frogpop]

They do in fact help, it is a medical fact.

It is a medical hope.. facts require proof.

Information on the effectiveness of facemasks and respirators for the control of influenza in community settings is extremely limited. Thus, it is difficult to assess their potential effectiveness in controlling swine influenza A (H1N1) virus transmission in these settings. In the absence of clear scientific data.. (http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/masks.htm)

When you think about it, surgical masks were never intended to keep the surgeons safe from diseases carried by the patient; they were designed to keep the patient safe by preventing a contamination of the sterile field by the surgeons.

That's why Doctors and the CDC use things like positive pressure suits when they're working with bugs that they don't want to catch, or patients who have them.

[Innis Cabal]

First of all, not necessarily, and secondly, I did say that. To quote myself: To put it better: It could either be 7 (8 now?) to the <100 confirmed non-fatal cases - or something like a 7ish% fatality rate, which seems pretty high. Or, there could have been a million other non-fatal cases of swine flu that weren't diagnosed as such, resulting in a fatality rate of something along the lines of 0.0000007%. We just don't know how serious it is in this regard - and in any case, a high survival rate could just mean that it will spread easier and further. So no, I don't think I was misleading.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/05/04/swine.flu.main/index.html

[chiasaur11]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/05/04/swine.flu.main/index.html

Ooooo!

In your face, doomsday predictions!

Which is odd, since the naysayer benefit as much as everyone from this news.

Well, everyone but Adam Foster. Man was going to document the Post-porkopalypic world. But now, the poor guy has to just work on Half Life 2 Episode Three.

[Zeb The Troll]

the Post-porkopalypic world..I think the word you're looking for is "post-aporkalyptic". :smallcool:

[onasuma]

Must... Resist... Urge... To... Hit... Zeb... With... Large... Pointed... Stick... Of... Some... Kind...

[PhoeKun]

I think the word you're looking for is "post-aporkalyptic". :smallcool:

...Well played. *high fives* :smallbiggrin:

[Serpentine]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/05/04/swine.flu.main/index.htmlYou put that up like it proved me wrong or something. That was released after I said what you quoted, and considering the gist of what I said was "maybe it's bad, maybe it's not", all it's doing is putting an answer to my "we don't know yet". Good to know, anyway.

[Innis Cabal]

I think your being a bit defensive. Yours was just the most pertinent and directly related to the topic I posted....so I quoted it....

[Emperor Ing]

I think the word you're looking for is "post-aporkalyptic". :smallcool:

I think I just lost all respect I might have had for you. :smallannoyed:

Seriously, in terms of swine flu, where I am, the people are divided into two extremes about it. 1 is ultraparanoid and believes EVERYONE might have it, they carry purell or some other disinfectant around at all time, the other one is totally indifferent, and aware that regular influenzia is 120% more prevalent.

[Serpentine]

I think your being a bit defensive. Yours was just the most pertinent and directly related to the topic I posted....so I quoted it....Probably, but it felt in-your-faceish.

[chiasaur11]

Probably, but it felt in-your-faceish.

Sorry if it did.

Was meant good naturedly and reassuringly.

And a bit gloatingly, too, sure, but we're all only human.

[Doran_Liadon]

You know, they said pigs would fly before Obama lasted 100 days in office. Well guess what? Swine flu!

[Haruki-kun]

Why must there always be some disease making people lose their heads? Bubonic Plague, SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu...whats next? Salmonella Fitzgerald?!?

http://i163.photobucket.com/albums/t288/Vaarsuvius89/Iseeslowpoke.jpg

On the subject of surgical masks: actually, they don't help at all. Unless they're the industrial types.

Medical ones are designed to protect the patient in case the doctors or nurses sneeze or cough during an operation. Industrial ones are designed to protect the wearer.

You want the ones labeled "N95". Those work.

[SDF]

So swine flu finally got to Idaho. And, guess what?

http://www.picturesforsadchildren.com/comics/00000263.png

[Innis Cabal]

So swine flu finally got to Idaho. And, guess what?

http://www.picturesforsadchildren.com/comics/00000263.png

Thats...almost....oh wait. Not even close to funny

[THAC0]

You want the ones labeled "N95". Those work.

Fortunately, I have a gigantic stock of these as that stupid volcano keeps erupting on us.

[Innis Cabal]

2nd reported US death. 2 weeks and almost 700 confirmed cases.

[Agamid]

*sniggers* (warning, image contains the 'F' word)
http://photos-e.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc1/hs028.snc1/3169_97278921296_608351296_2280476_2856189_n.jpg

[shadzar]

:smalleek: I wonder what Kermit is doing to protect any humans around his family from Ms Piggy? She has a violent temper and all, and may be prone to bite people after all these years.