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View Full Version : Is 4e doing well? - The opinion of Joseph Goodman (of Goodman Games)



Colmarr
2009-06-24, 02:09 AM
*** Please note that this post and/or thread have nothing to do with the merits of 4e as a system, and it certainly isn't a comparison of 4e with 3e. I post it simply so that any 4ites out there who have been a little concerned by all the naysaying might join me in holding out a little hope. ***

After having fears following the Dacey Death Spiral scoop, I came across this (http://www.goodman-games.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6207&p=25324) interesting item today which gives me some hope.

Reproduced for the lazy:

Hi everyone,

I really like gaming, game stores, and playing games, and it is for these reasons that I traditionally do not discuss the business side of the industry in public forums. In the 3E era I kept my head down and just focused on publishing good product. This worked out pretty well, and now many gamers perceive Goodman Games as one of the more successful RPG publishers. All this happened without "Joseph Goodman" being well known. You know who runs Malhavoc and Green Ronin and Necromancer and Paizo, but I routinely encounter fans who have no idea why Goodman Games has "Goodman" in the name. That's how I like it.

Now, eight years into the business, I feel compelled to write my first personal note on the business side of things. Welcome to "Joe Goodman's first commentary on the business." I write this primarily to portray what I consider to be the facts of certain elements of the business, particularly the success of fourth edition D&D.

First, a little background. I own Goodman Games but don't run it full time. Goodman Games has an outstanding staff who do most of the product development, run the tournaments, handle the shipping, etc. I personally have a full-time "business job" at a Fortune 50 company, where I manage a large staff running a billion-dollar division. Goodman Games is an extremely enjoyable outlet for my love of the hobby, but it's not how I pay my bills. I do it for fun because it is something I absolutely love to do. I wrote my first RPG at the age of 10, self-published my first work at 17, had my first professional contract at 18, had my first staff writer job at 21, and have been involved professionally in the gaming industry ever since.

I believe brick-and-mortar hobby stores are the lifeblood of the industry. This is for a couple of reasons. First, it is these stores that introduced me to the hobby, along with many other gamers. Sword of the Phoenix in Atlanta, GA was the store I shopped at for years. It was there that I discovered not just D&D, but also Ral Partha and Grenadier miniatures, Warhammer 40,000, Space Hulk, and many of the other games that I played obsessively as a child. Hobby stores are the single best way to introduce new gamers to the hobby. No online experience can match this.

Second, hobby game stores serve as community centers. It's not even "the best" game stores that do this; even the ones without gaming space have bulletin boards, well-connected staff, and affiliations with local cons. When you move to a new city or discover a new game, the hobby store is the best place to find new friends to play it with.

Third, speaking as a businessman, hobby stores are by far the largest market for games. The online market (including print, PDF, and POD) simply can't compete. As Goodman Games has matured into one of the standard stocklist items for typical game stores, I have seen my overall sales base grow steadily while online sales have dwindled. Online sales now make up a tiny fraction of Goodman Games sales. Yes, PDF sales are the fastest-growing sales segment, that is true, but the hobby market is HUGE compared to the online market - orders of magnitude larger. If you support retailers, they will support you, and that effort pays off tenfold. (There's a reason Wizards could pull their entire PDF backlist without blinking an eye. Those of us with good retail distribution are among the few observers to understand this.)

It is because of this belief in game stores, and my own personal retail experience, that I focus many of my product development and marketing efforts on strategies that benefit not just Goodman Games, but also retailers. These strategies have included Free RPG Day, a first of its kind in this industry; my annual May sale, which no other RPG publisher does; and the DCC spinner racks which I supplied to hundreds of retailers a couple years ago. These are the promotions consumers can see; there are many others, behind the scenes, that retailers have seen.

I mention these retailer promotions because they are feedback channels that don't exist for other publishers. There isn't another third-party RPG publisher that has shipped spinner racks to several hundred stores and gotten feedback on how it affected sales. There isn't another third-party RPG publisher who runs an annual sale through distributors. And so on. As a result of these efforts, I get feedback through a number of different channels. Sales numbers are a form of feedback. Personal conversations with retailers are a form of feedback. But direct retailer feedback is a significant feedback channel for me, and one that I believe is much more significant for me than for most other third-party publishers. Those of you who follow these forums have seen my Game Store Review Thread, and have a sense of just how frequently I visit stores.

It is based on these feedback channels that I evaluate the industry. These are my "senses," if you will. Goodman Games is not an imprint that publishes through other companies, multiple steps removed from distributors and even further removed from retailers. Goodman Games is not a company founded on online and subscription-based revenue streams. Goodman Games is a different sort of company from the rest. Goodman Games -- and Joseph Goodman -- are about as close as you can get to the pulse of retailers, within the third-party RPG publisher segment.

And now to the question at hand: How is 4E doing?

4E is doing well, very well. I'll define the parameters of "well" below. First, let's dispel a couple myths.

Myth #1: "We can publish the same book in 4E that we did for 3E, and use that as a yardstick for sales." Simply not true. Log on to dndinsider.com and you'll understand why. You have to understand Wizards' digital initiative (and its many ramifications) if you intend to publish 4E books at all. Sales of many categories have changed based on what the digital initiative provides customers free of charge. Sales of character record books in 3E and 4E are apples and oranges, not suitable for comparison, and there are other categories affected as well.

Myth #2: "Distributors do not support 4E." Simply not true. The pre-orders on Dungeon Crawl Classics #53, #54, and #55 were larger than anything I had seen in years. More recently, Level Up #1 sold out its first wave of distribution sales in under 48 hours, then sold out the second wave of distributor restocks a week later, and distributors continue to place huge restocks. There is significant distributor support for 4E.

Myth #3: "Retailers do not support 4E." Simply not true. This sort of claim is where the debate breaks down, because one gamer can say, "4E isn't selling at my local store," and it's hard to refute that. Store-by-store experiences do indeed vary widely, and the truth is that there are many individual stores where 4E isn't selling well. It is these stores, and gamers who trumpet these stores, that have led to many claims regarding 4E not selling. What can I say to refute that? I will rely on my credibility regarding direct retailer feedback.

I've personally visited 47 different game stores so far this year. Yes, 47 -- see viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5197 for some details. Next time someone tells you "4E isn't selling at my local store," remind him that he's discussing 1 store. Aside from those personal visits, I've spoken on the phone with probably 100+ other game stores, gotten direct feedback via a Dungeon Crawl Classics sale (see list of stores in the download at http://www.goodman-games.com/dcc-sale-09.html ), sponsored another year of Free RPG Day (see list of stores at http://www.freerpgday.com/stores.htm ), and run two Worldwide D&D Game Day promotions involving every store participating in Worldwide D&D Game Day (see http://www.goodman-games.com/WWDDD5-23.html and http://www.goodman-games.com/WWDDD3-21.html ). There are hundreds of stores that participate in each of these events individually, probably thousands overall if you compile the various lists. Naysayers who post claims of "4E doesn't sell well at my local store" seem to omit these massive lists of supporting retailers.

Back to myth #3: "retailers do not support 4E." Simply not true. Why not? Because Joe Goodman says so, and I know more about game stores than you do. Show me someone with the same list of credentials regarding direct retailer feedback, and I'll back down. Until then, the statement stands.

With these myths dispelled, let's discuss the meaning of "doing well." First, some historical context. Before I founded Goodman Games, I wrote a book on the history of this industry. It was something of a research project that turned into a book. I was planning to start a game company, and I wanted to do it right, so I researched the history of the three primary publishing categories. Most of the gaming history that gets published these days is product-focused, with an emphasis on creators, artists, inspirations, and the like. My research was focused on the business strategies of the companies involved. For example, in the early 1980's when Games Workshop got the license to produce official D&D miniatures from TSR, they did absolutely nothing with it and effectively used it to shut down their competitors so they could launch their own fantasy miniatures line. Has anybody else here studied the retail locator lists in White Dwarf magazine over the 1980's? Cross-reference the independent hobby shops listed in the early 1980's against the addresses of the GW company shops listed in the late 1980's. It's fascinating; you can see the pattern of how GW opened shops in close proximity to their hobby accounts. If you ever want to learn actual TSR sales figures, do your homework and find all the lawsuits against them. It's all public record, and I've read it all. Dave Arneson sued TSR three times for unpaid royalties, and each of the court filings lists TSR sales figures for the years where he challenged.

All of this research (which I ultimately decided not to publish) forms the historical context for my opinion of D&D 4E. Dungeons & Dragons has had two, and exactly two, peak years. The first was 1982. The second was 2001. The mid-80's were a declining period, and the 90's were a trough. From a business perspective, the creatively-much-admired 1970's were really a low point for D&D. Fast growth, but very low sales volume compared to the years to come.

From 1974 to 2009 is 35 years. Or, roughly two generations. D&D has roughly one peak every generation. 35 years total, 2 of which were great, and the other 33 of which were "okay."

But what do people compare 4E to?

One of the two best sales years in the past 35 years of D&D. Not the other 33 years.

Is 4E doing as well as 3E sales in 2001? Definitely not. That was the high point in a generation.

Is 4E doing as well as D&D sales in the times of 1974-1981? 1983 through 2000? And approximately 2002 through 2008?

Yes.

So, is 4E doing well?

Yes. In the 35 year history of D&D, we stand at a high point. D&D is selling more copies, reaching more customers, supporting more game stores, than it has during most of its history.

Will 4E do as well as 3E?

Maybe. But frankly, who cares? That's like asking if 4E will do as well as AD&D did in 1982. Or as well as 2nd edition did. Or as well as the little white box. Anybody who's ever had a job where they're accountable for sales numbers -- and I've had a lot of these -- knows that there are some marketing events that simply hit the ball out of the park. 3E was one of those, and it will be hard to top for a generation to come. It was a once-in-a-generation feat, just as D&D sales in 1982 were a once-in-a-generation feat. For twenty years following 1982, D&D sales never recovered their peak. Twenty years. From the vantage point of 1983, was D&D dying? In 1983, you could have said that. The twenty-year decline was starting. But D&D went on to have another peak in 2001.

From where we stand now, at the very beginning of 4E, I see a long, strong run ahead of us. Just as in 1982, it may be another twenty years before the generational peak of 3E is reached again. Or it could be next year, when the economy improves. Just as in 1983, who can say?

In the meantime, there are thousands of game stores clamoring for 4E product. And I'll be here publishing it for a long time.

That's all from Joseph Goodman, signing off from business-oriented posts for another eight years.

Oblivious
2009-06-24, 03:13 AM
Reminds me of this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cc_wjp262RY). "You don't know the history of psychiatry and I do."

The "once in a generation" argument is silly and weakens his argument. I don't think he addressed why the launch year for 4e should be compared to non-launch years for previous editions.

The problem I had with this article is that Goodman glosses over projections for the future and market strategy, which is what everyone really cares about. 3e brought a lot of new consumers to the industry and Wizards is trying to repeat that success with new demographics (the wii strategy). The financial future of the product line is going to depend on how well they can attract new gamers and how well people respond to their new publishing system. Frankly, Goodman is making the same mistake he attributes to others in the article: judging a new system by an old metric.

Kurald Galain
2009-06-24, 03:44 AM
So he's saying that 4E is doing well but not as good as 3E. I think we already knew that :smallbiggrin: And of course many people are going to compare it to its predecessor, regardless of whether or not that's "fair".

KIDS
2009-06-24, 05:24 AM
Thanks a lot for posting this and of course to Mr. Goodman for writing such an exhaustive opinion! I think that these days we can all use a little reminder that not everything is gloom and doom like we would sometimes be led to believe.
And note that he made the comparison to the 3E peak and all the following years. I for one do not find 3E (as compared to 3.5) a good or quality game, though it led to sparking such new interest in D&D and deserves respect for that.

Master_Rahl22
2009-06-24, 08:47 AM
I like 4E more than I like 3.5, but I still enjoy 3.5 and have some friends with no plans to move to 4E for various reasons (don't even want to consider switching, don't have money for new books, etc.). For the forseeable future, I will likely play 3.5 and 4E at the same time, and I'm ok with that since they give different things. I appreciate the objective report from Mr. Goodman that 4E is doing well, since I'd like them to get around to Divine Power at least. :)

Grommen
2009-06-24, 12:31 PM
I wonder how much of his opinion is baised on the fact that Goodmen Games made the switch to 4e? I like Goodmen games, I like them a lot. I can see how his sales are proabaly very good based on the fact that my local hoby store buys Goodmen products and Wizards 4e products only.

Now that being said my local hobby store is not selling 4e products very well, and I have been told that the distributor is selling 4e at a discount. I read the message boards and have visited other hobby stores. 4th ed is not selling well according to these places and what I see.

Their are some very strong reasons why it's not selling here.

#1 I live in Michigan, not very far from the epicenter of the auto industry. Every one I know is unemployed, almost unemployed, self employed (due to being unemployed) or working at a job simply to keep the lights on and people fed.

In short life up here sucks, and no one is willing to part with $100 bones for a new version of a game.

#2 my local hobby store was founded back in the 1st ed days, out of a love of the game. They still promote, support AD&D when they can, and as a result...Well 4th is getting little to any love from them.

The customer base is not helping either. I, like many of the customer base, literally have over 10 feet of 3.5 edition material, adventures source books, campaign settings etc. Even if 4th ed was the best thing sense sliced bread I'm simply not interested in converting, and not using the material I have acquired for 3rd. The fact that 3ed and 4th are not compatible really aids in our resistance. It was hard to convert our old characters to 3ed, now a few years latter we have to convert again? Not happening.

I hope it does. I really hope that 4ed sticks around, and that Hasbro supports it even though they don't know how to run a business like this. I hope that it's simple rules, and flavor brings more people to the table to play. If not we may finally see the end of D&D, and that would really suck.

DM Raven
2009-06-24, 03:58 PM
Again I'm blown away by people thinking that $100 for a hobby is too expensive. In addition to D&D I love video and computer games, this electronic hobby prolly costs me close to $800 a year. My friend is a fan of airsoft and he paid about $500 for his guns and close to $400 a year for events, donations, and supplies. Going to the movies once per month will cost you about $130 a year if you don't buy popcorn. I spent about $90 for my D&D books and about $60-$70 a year for DDI.

That said, I can tell you that 4th edition is selling strong in Washington and New York (the two places I live) hobby stores. And all of my gaming friends have switched over to 4th edition. (Even the ones who refused to when it first came out.)

It's a great system that will be around for a long time.

Xenogears
2009-06-24, 04:04 PM
Again I'm blown away by people thinking that $100 for a hobby is too expensive. In addition to D&D I love video and computer games, this electronic hobby prolly costs me close to $800 a year. My friend is a fan of airsoft and he paid about $500 for his guns and close to $400 a year for events, donations, and supplies. Going to the movies once per month will cost you about $130 a year if you don't buy popcorn. I spent about $90 for my D&D books and about $60-$70 a year for DDI.

That said, I can tell you that 4th edition is selling strong in Washington and New York (the two places I live) hobby stores. And all of my gaming friends have switched over to 4th edition. (Even the ones who refused to when it first came out.)

It's a great system that will be around for a long time.

And Im blown away by people who think everyone has that kind of money to blow. Some people have to spend 90% of their paychecks on rent and other bills and food and taking care of their family. And even when they DO have extra money some people wind up needing to spend it on other people's birthdays and such.

In short. Some people are happy when they can buy one or two games a year and thats about it....

Waspinator
2009-06-24, 04:11 PM
Still, there is a point that pen-and-paper games are pretty cheap by hobby standards. The core books for pretty much any system costs far less than say, a X-Box 360 and a game or two for it.

DM Raven
2009-06-24, 04:20 PM
And Im blown away by people who think everyone has that kind of money to blow. Some people have to spend 90% of their paychecks on rent and other bills and food and taking care of their family. And even when they DO have extra money some people wind up needing to spend it on other people's birthdays and such.

In short. Some people are happy when they can buy one or two games a year and thats about it....

The point is that pen/paper hobbies are cheap when compared to other hobbies, one of the cheapest in fact. Yet people still complain about the small amount they pay for the hobby.

Kurald Galain
2009-06-24, 04:20 PM
Still, there is a point that pen-and-paper games are pretty cheap by hobby standards. The core books for pretty much any system costs far less than say, a X-Box 360 and a game or two for it.
It's psychological, though. Regardless of whether they can afford an XBox 360, there are people that will not buy one because they already own a Wii. Likewise, regardless of whether they can afford a 4E PHB (which is really all you need to play) there are people that will not buy one because they already own 3E.

It's not about the absolute cost, it's about the relative (and perceived) added value of what you're buying.

Myrmex
2009-06-24, 04:22 PM
If drinking wasn't my full time hobby, I could afford D&D....

I think 4E is doing really well, and I say that only because it has a strong endorsement from Penny Arcade and PvP. PA is probably the biggest, and most trusted, blog for gamers.

Artanis
2009-06-24, 04:28 PM
And Im blown away by people who think everyone has that kind of money to blow. Some people have to spend 90% of their paychecks on rent and other bills and food and taking care of their family. And even when they DO have extra money some people wind up needing to spend it on other people's birthdays and such.
If you don't have the sort of money required to play a PnP game, then you don't have the sort of money required to buy video games or go to the movies or whatever.



In short. Some people are happy when they can buy one or two games a year and thats about it....
One or two games can easily top $100.

satorian
2009-06-24, 04:34 PM
What's the Dacey Death Spiral scoop? couldn't find it via google.

DM Raven
2009-06-24, 04:36 PM
It's psychological, though. Regardless of whether they can afford an XBox 360, there are people that will not buy one because they already own a Wii. Likewise, regardless of whether they can afford a 4E PHB (which is really all you need to play) there are people that will not buy one because they already own 3E.

It's not about the absolute cost, it's about the relative (and perceived) added value of what you're buying.

Agreed, I guess I was more reacting to his comment without taking the context of the post into account. If you enjoy 3.x and you already have the books, there is no real point to switch over to 4.0 especially if you're being forced to cut corners just to stay afloat. My problem is more with people who have the money for books, but don't buy them and mooch off someone else or pirate the material. (I've dealt with this issue at my games a lot recently.)D&D is a cheap hobby, one of the cheapest actually. It's one of the few hobbies that you can sustain with a one-time investment. You don't even have to buy anything besides the core books if you don't want to.

dragoonsgone
2009-06-24, 04:48 PM
66 dollars and free shipping.
http://www.amazon.com/Dungeons-Dragons-Core-Rulebook-Gift/dp/0786950633/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1245879897&sr=8-4

You can easily pay that for 1 xbox game.

It is a very cheap hobby. I got 3.5 core for a bit cheaper used of course. But still close to 50 bucks with shipping and all.
Not very many hobbies where you can sell it back after 5-10 years for almost what you paid for it.

Yora
2009-06-24, 04:58 PM
The point is that pen/paper hobbies are cheap when compared to other hobbies, one of the cheapest in fact. Yet people still complain about the small amount they pay for the hobby.
You CAN buy enough D&D books that you have to sell your car. If you really want to. I had quite a couple myself, but sold most of them when I realized I always ever use just 3 of them. And I'm always the gm. None of my players owns a single book.
Just last weekend I went shoping with 4 euro and returned with 13 cent and had to ask a friend so I could eat something on monday. My monthly money came the next day, two days late, but still I guess there are lots of people who really can't just spend 100$ just for fun. That's about my montly budget for food. Fortunately I get paid out the monney I invested for the last 7 years, so I can go on a big shopping spree, but still. It's not implausible.

It's psychological, though. Regardless of whether they can afford an XBox 360, there are people that will not buy one because they already own a Wii. Likewise, regardless of whether they can afford a 4E PHB (which is really all you need to play) there are people that will not buy one because they already own 3E.
Also, you have to want to play it.

I don't care how much mint and orange ice cream they have. I only want choclate and walnut. ^^

Colmarr
2009-06-24, 05:48 PM
So he's saying that 4E is doing well but not as good as 3E. I think we already knew that :smallbiggrin:

You know what? I and my DM didn't know that 4e was doing well. In fact, given the WotC layoffs, the free download of KotS and a few other bits and pieces, we feared it was doing poorly.

So it was reassuring to me to read something that suggested it was doing well enough.


What's the Dacey Death Spiral scoop? couldn't find it via google.

Ryan Dancey (got the spelling wrong the first time), a former industry insider, posited on rpgpundit's blog that D&D was in a death spiral. He made a fairly convincing, if shallow argument. I won't link it here because that would defeat the purpose of this thread.

J.Gellert
2009-06-24, 06:38 PM
Well, I don't know. Even hearing about how it's doing is worrying. It's kind of like a game development team says "We are not dead!" when it's clear that they are so dead.

I mean, who was asking if 3.5 was selling well? There wasn't a fuss about sales back then, mostly about oversimplifications and options, if I remember correctly.

AstralFire
2009-06-24, 06:41 PM
You'll note this is not a game development team, but a third party who could easily switch back to the previous niche they were in if it'd make them more money. And 3.0/.5 came into a market that was almost dead. So no one would ask those questions.

J.Gellert
2009-06-24, 06:51 PM
I dislike 4E, but I hope you are right. Monte Cook has said that D&D is the RPG industry, and if we are to continue seeing this game (and likely, other games) then they have to do well selling it.

I just can't help thinking they sabotaged themselves by trying to steal players from the MMORPGs. But I imagine they know the market better than I do so it's likely it wasn't that bad an idea.

Mando Knight
2009-06-24, 07:11 PM
You know what? I and my DM didn't know that 4e was doing well. In fact, given the WotC layoffs, the free download of KotS and a few other bits and pieces, we feared it was doing poorly.

That probably has as much to do with the economy and games industry as a whole as it does with 4E in particular...

Oblivious
2009-06-24, 08:19 PM
And Im blown away by people who think everyone has that kind of money to blow. Some people have to spend 90% of their paychecks on rent and other bills and food and taking care of their family. And even when they DO have extra money some people wind up needing to spend it on other people's birthdays and such.

In short. Some people are happy when they can buy one or two games a year and thats about it....

It's true that people with little to no disposable income exist... but it's kind of useless trying to sell things to these people.

TheThan
2009-06-24, 09:30 PM
The problem that fourth edition faces is that it is fighting against its own predecessor. 3rd was very much alive and kicking when WOTC rolled out fourth. Because third was far from dead, they have to convince people to make the switch. People are loyal to their chosen system and getting them to make that switch is not easy. I for one didn’t like the idea of 4E when I heard about it. I said “but I’m still having fun with 3E, I don’t need a new one yet.” I’m sure many people have had similar reactions to mine.
In my area, many people praised the coming of 3.x. they even went so far as to hold mini parades in the streets when it was released. To these people, Second Edition and RPGs in general were dead; they craved something new and exciting. 3.x gave them exactly what they needed.
Its not like that with 4E. The old game is still alive and kicking, and people (at least from the reactions on this board) are still happy to play it, even though there is a new and exciting edition out.



Another problem I see, is when a company focuses on one demographic at the expense of the previous demographic they focused on, they risk alienating and loosing the previous group as customers. I’ve seen it happen to Nintendo when the playstation and Xbox came out (they were able to bounce back yeah, but it happened). I’ve known several people who stopped buying Nintendo products because they weren’t making games that appealed to them anymore. Nintendo didn’t make games that interested 20 something year olds that had grown up with Nintendo games. Instead they shifted their demographic to ten year old children, the next generation of gamers.
If WOTC falls into this trap, they will loose much of their fanbase and have to recreate it. They will have to depend on attracting that new crowd to stay in business (or at least to prevent the dnd section from being closed down).

shadzar
2009-06-25, 04:41 AM
Isn't Goodman one of the ones that went 4th with the GSL? So they need 4e to do well or have to switch back to OGL.

Also wasn't this post in question sort of in response to Ryan Dancey comments on some pundit site, as well as Necromancer Games' Orcus (aka Clarke) comments on yet another site?

So Goodman lives or dies with D&D and the current edition it supports, so would want everyone to think it is doing well to give their own company a greater chance of success.

If he were to say that 4e is doing poorly, then he would have to explain why GG is still working with the GSL, and not switching back to the OGL already.

I just wouldn't put too much stock into what he says from his perspective because he just has too much riding on it and is not impartial.

I would question how books are selling. Those books would be PHB, DMG, and MM. How were they doing last month, how were they doing this month, and how many total have sold.

That is how you know how well the edition is doing. Any other books are just crap that the most hardcore 4e fans are likely to buy, but the main 3 will tell you IF the game is continuing to grow and by how much.

If it isn't still growing after a year, then it isn't doing well by any standard.

So I wouldn't put much stock in anything that Clarke, Joe, WotC, or Dancey says about the wellnes of 4e since all have some sort of stake in it.

You need an outside source to look at it from the proper angels to tell financially, and popularly how well it is doing.

J.Gellert
2009-06-25, 06:16 AM
4th edition seems to be selling well on Amazon but those stats change so often they do not seem trustworthy... And 3rd edition books still display near the top there.

Time will tell. D&D Miniatures were going well until they weren't. 4th edition could be selling below expectations (and likely below 3rd) but still make Hasbro enough money to be considered a success. We may never know for certain until 5th edition appears.

Raum
2009-06-25, 08:07 AM
I'm not going to disagree with Joe Goodman's conclusions regarding 4e - partly because it's not something I care to research but mostly because I suspect the edition as a whole (not necessarily the books) are more successful than even he gives 4e credit for...at least financially. However there are a couple of his statements which do need to be examined.


I believe brick-and-mortar hobby stores are the lifeblood of the industry. This is for a couple of reasons. First, it is these stores that introduced me to the hobby, along with many other gamers. <snip>

Second, hobby game stores serve as community centers. <snip>

Third, speaking as a businessman, hobby stores are by far the largest market for games. If this is true, the industry is doomed. Not in one year or even in a decade but almost certainly in a generation. Goodman's reasoning leaves a bit to be desired also - the first argument is fallacious, the second is incomplete (I'd like to see a comparison with online communities such as Yahoo groups), and the third while probably true is only part of the picture. Borders is 'troubled' in spite of being a very large book retailer. They almost certainly purchase books in larger orders than Amazon (have to stock hundreds of retail outlets after all) yet Amazon is doing far better. Just because retailers purchase more doesn't mean the retailers are healthy.

Hasbro / WotC sees this coming - that's why they're changing the model to incorporate an online subscription and heavy online presence. That subscription model is also why I suspect 4e will be far more profitable than previous editions - even if they sell fewer books overall.

No time to continue in more detail but look back at historical changes and how they affected their relevant industries. The move from centralized computing to decentralized (PCs), the automobile, electricity...many more. Each saw companies who succeeded when they could successfully change their business model to meet the new reality - and companies who failed when they could not.

shadzar
2009-06-25, 09:55 AM
If this is true, the industry is doomed. Not in one year or even in a decade but almost certainly in a generation. Goodman's reasoning leaves a bit to be desired also - the first argument is fallacious, the second is incomplete (I'd like to see a comparison with online communities such as Yahoo groups), and the third while probably true is only part of the picture. Borders is 'troubled' in spite of being a very large book retailer. They almost certainly purchase books in larger orders than Amazon (have to stock hundreds of retail outlets after all) yet Amazon is doing far better. Just because retailers purchase more doesn't mean the retailers are healthy.

SAdly because of what card games have done to hobbies in general in combination with console games, the game stores are the industry, and those with comic books have done severe damage to it with the speculation from comic books a decade or so ago with people buying many trying to get rich quick, and then find out that all those extra copies don't net any return as the golden age comics do.

Now comics aren't selling that well that people don't want them except for collectors.

Many things are going the way of baseball and other sports cards, because of this instance that card games created.

For example you go into a hobby store today and they have so many things, the employees cannot even keep up with what they should carry, or know what they carry to any degree to be able to discus it with people. God forbid going into a store that isn't dedicated to mini games and ask about mini, either playing, or building for those that require assembly.

The only thing that can happen is the quick death spiral, and it already is. comic book sales are going down FAST!

The all encompassing game store was a thing of the past. It didn't really work then, only even partially. But they are pretty much the only place that carries products anymore because of economic concerns many big places just won't carry them anymore.

Walmart, and such stores go for other things and are run out of warehouses, rather than independent choices, so the corporation must be convinced it if worth their time to devote to research to find what stores to carry it and what ones to not, and it just isn't worth their time or money to do so.

The many miss run game stores and their ilk also cause problems for those trying to build something usable.

Today's market and people still don't accept this style of gaming very much and with console games, don't have to to try to support these kind of stores in any fashion.

So all in all the game stores are the last refuge for RPGs and such, and they are dying quicker than many think.

What will likely happen is the online sales boom which is already here helping kill the overcharging B&M stores, because of lack of overhead, and then move to total digital because of same overhead costs for all will be greatly reduced.

B&M stores have been dying for a decade now as has been shown over the course of comic sales decline and steady come and go of the stores that cannot keep up in lower income communities, where more people would play the games given enough space, but the stores just cannot afford to have the space to attract the customers.

Part of course is the fault of 3.x and the OGL because of the sheer number of products that split the market so bad, that nobody knows what to carry, and just don't want to be bothered with trying to carry everything in a product line, like Diamond Distributors forces upon its customers, as well does Games Workshop.

I would think unless some revolution happens soon, then we are looking at about 5 years max before the fall of game stores.

Logalmier
2009-06-25, 10:01 AM
I mostly don't bother with 4th edition because that would require spending another $150 on books. I'm just not going to do that when I'm happy with the system I have. I'm not planning on buying anymore 3.5 edition books, which would be hard anyways since it seems that they've been removed from every gaming store I've been to. So, yeah. That's pretty much my view of 4th edition in a nutshell.

Tiki Snakes
2009-06-25, 10:27 AM
Wait wait wait. Brick and Mortar games stores are dying out because of Trading Card Games? :smallconfused:

Anyway, I completely disagree about multi-product games stores. My local stocks minis, board games, rpg's, books, scenary stuff, plush toys, cards, chess sets, etc etc etc. The owner can quite happily find you anything you want, and can hold (Lengthy) discussions on most product-related topics. His knowledge of the mini's range is, in particular, impressive.

I don't know about the american scene, but such stores aren't a complete exception here in blighty, at least.
It is true that Comic-book stores are suffering, though, but that's got a lot to do with the comic book industry and really nothing to do with the games industry, and less to do with 4th ed. :)

Personally, I'd assumed he was much more talking about actual Games Stores, as in the independantly run and owned sort, with weird beardy guys and aladin's cave's of weird hobby stuff. Not so much Wallmart and Borders?

shadzar
2009-06-25, 12:01 PM
Wait wait wait. Brick and Mortar games stores are dying out because of Trading Card Games? :smallconfused:

No they were created because of the card games, but heavily supported by comic books, which are slowly dying right now as each quarter passes.

The old hobby stores have all but died as it is, and you end up with stores like Hobby Lobby that is more a grandma's art's and craft store, and home decor store with its flower baskets and furniture. The actual hobby stores were killed by the game stores. Now that the game stores have lost the multitude of comic book sales, they are in danger.

The constant state of games changing means, the game stores can barely keep up and keep afloat.

If you have a big store that carries a large variety, then you are lucky. Many places are just little shacks filled with product with little to no place to play anything other than the card games, which doesn't really promote RPGs, no matter what Free RPG Day tries to do, or the RPGA and its D&D Game Days.

The card games are still the biggest thing, and don't just bring in enough money with rising rent and electrical prices. 4th edition for example, to many stores was a shock they couldn't support. If they already have a player base building on 3rd, then how does the store tell them they have to shell out more money to keep playing the new game even for RPGA events and hope to keep the customers.

WotC in part with 4th edition, has done lots to hurt game stores that don't have such chances at varied things or diverse players. It literally kills smaller stores ability to provide any kind of product to sell, and have to shunt even D&D in any edition to allow for more room for the card games. This in turn hurts the hobby as a whole as it causes less stores to exist that will support RPGs. Of course this doesn't matter to WotC, because they still ahve MAgic for their own profits, but soon even those stores resorting solely to card games will not be able to support themselves, and Magic and other card games will feel the effect.

It is a changing market, and with other things taken into consideration like video gaming, 4th edition was posibly the worse thing to do to the entire hobby, alone from splitting the players, they cut off their own lifeline which is those B&M stores, that such a switch would cause to turn away from RPGs since they no longer can get anything in return from them.

I know one that didn't switch to 4th and have terminated its D&D sales, including minis, and after Wizkids fallout with the Clix games, means the shelves have far less on them.

I think it would be a chance and choice time for people to consolidate what they are selling and provide, and narrow down what they order and allow in the store to make sure B&M stores can survive. The question is just what do the little guys cut and what do they keep?

I have said it before and will again, but when it comes ot minis and RPGs as to how much sell and how much space it takes for them; the best choice game stores has is the higher profit, and less table space games, such as the card games.

So you might just be lucky in an area/region that does better with gaming and with a bigger store, but across the board, many gaming stores are closing down at an alarming rate with recent events. :smallfrown:

J.Gellert
2009-06-25, 12:51 PM
The largest gaming store where I live is actually half RPG/TcG games store, and half an internet cafe, so even if people stop playing tabletop RPGs in favor of MMOs, and stop playing tabletop wargames in favor of RTS, they'll still be in business :smalltongue:

Oslecamo
2009-06-25, 01:47 PM
It is a changing market, and with other things taken into consideration like video gaming, 4th edition was posibly the worse thing to do to the entire hobby, alone from splitting the players, they cut off their own lifeline which is those B&M stores, that such a switch would cause to turn away from RPGs since they no longer can get anything in return from them.


Actually, this isn't hapening just with D&D and comics books.

The terrible truth is, most companies wich do entertainment that comes in paper form are changing it to computer form.

Wotc may have sent the stores to hell, but it created DDI, and it's pretty clear it's their real bet in the future. They're still pringing the books, but I wouldn't be admired if in a span of few years the only way you can legally acess the latest official D&D products is by joining their online money sucker system.

This is, there were people on this very forum telling that they actually prefered to pay full price for a digital book. It's actually a gold mine if you think about it, focusing on those kind of people who're willing to pay for nothing, cuting down in paper costs, and probably quality costs.

Raum
2009-06-25, 04:54 PM
The terrible truth is, most companies wich do entertainment that comes in paper form are changing it to computer form.

Wotc may have sent the stores to hell, but it created DDI, and it's pretty clear it's their real bet in the future. Exactly. This is what I was talking about when saying the industry is doomed if it relies on friendly local game stores (FLGS). The retail method was only part of the issue I have with Goodman's statement - what happens to the communities which rely on your FLGS when the medium isn't paper?

It's all about the information media.

Information has been disseminated primarily on paper for centuries. Not any longer. We've already passed the threshhold where more information is available digitally than via paper. You can see the first ripples in the business world already. Businesses built around issuing ephemeral or short term information (newspapers are one example) are moving online or going out of business. That is only the beginning. Business is evolution writ small, adapt or die.

Like the model or not (and I am not a subscriber) WotC's online subscription model is an attempt to adapt. So far it looks successful.

I don't say that because I like it either. I miss the FLGS. In many ways I prefer 'in person' communication. But I'm also old enough to remember a time before personal computers. :smalleek:

Josh the Aspie
2009-06-25, 06:56 PM
Again I'm blown away by people thinking that $100 for a hobby is too expensive. In addition to D&D I love video and computer games, this electronic hobby prolly costs me close to $800 a year. My friend is a fan of airsoft and he paid about $500 for his guns and close to $400 a year for events, donations, and supplies. Going to the movies once per month will cost you about $130 a year if you don't buy popcorn. I spent about $90 for my D&D books and about $60-$70 a year for DDI.

That said, I can tell you that 4th edition is selling strong in Washington and New York (the two places I live) hobby stores. And all of my gaming friends have switched over to 4th edition. (Even the ones who refused to when it first came out.)

It's a great system that will be around for a long time.

I'd like to point out that video games are obscenely expensive, and this is one of the main reasons I no longer play them. I recall buying games for 5 bucks used, $10 new. I'm not interested in paying more than $19.99 for a new game, unless it's a gift for someone else who has been giving me wonderful games as well. For $100 I can get over a week's worth of mid-end sushi. For $800 I can buy myself a delicious, nutritious lunch of sushi for work, every week day, that works well with my diet for about 4 months, give or take.

I could also buy nearly a year of martial arts lessons, which not only entertains, but allows me to defend myself, and improves my health.

The amount of cost of video games these days is, in my personal opinion, insane. So telling me 'it doesn't cost that much compared to video games' isn't much of a convincing argument.

As the price of something I am interested in goes up, my willingness to pay additional money for said value goes down. Given the amount of RPGs I currently own, many of which are better, and many of which stink, the amount of additional value to be found by buying a new set of RPG books also goes down.

So, increased additional price for decreased additional value. I am sure you can see why I am not very interested in buying new books. Again.

Swordguy
2009-06-25, 07:11 PM
What I've learned from this thread is that there's NOBODY that the gaming community will accept to fairly discuss whether 4e is doing well or not. Information from WotC is tainted, information from retailers is biased, information from gamers is anecdotal, information from distributors is flat wrong...there's nobody whom the community will trust to give them the information. EVERYONE has a bias somehow, and even the possibility of bias evidently magically makes any possible argument by a given person automatically invalid.

How do you people get your news? If you dismiss it out of hand because there's potential of bias, like what's been done here, I can't see how you can watch ANY form of news, from anywhere.

:smallyuk:

Raum
2009-06-25, 07:35 PM
How do you people get your news? If you dismiss it out of hand because there's potential of bias, like what's been done here, I can't see how you can watch ANY form of news, from anywhere.

:smallyuk:As long as people are involved, there will be bias. I recommend 1) ensure you're aware of the author's bias, 2) check multiple sources with different biases, and 3) make your own decision - don't let any authority do so for you. :)

As one example, I tend to read three different news sites. One has a generally conservative bias, a second is generally liberal. The third is overseas. Between the three differing points of view I tend to get enough information to form my own opinion...which is, of course, biased by my personal philosophy and experiences. :)

Irreverent Fool
2009-06-25, 07:46 PM
I stopped reading at "and I know more about game stores than you do". If you expect people to listen to your opinion -- whether or not this statement of his is true -- this is not the sort of thing you should pepper into your argument. He stated his credentials early on and that was enough to get me to have faith in what he was saying.

Seemed good up until that point though. Sales numbers are evidence that it's catching on one way or another. 4e is in fact doing quite well in my area. The local shop owner is sponsoring 4e games in his store so of course they are buying 4e product from him. It's win-win unless you are of the opinion that 4e is somehow diminishing the hobby.

obnoxious
sig

Penguintine
2009-06-25, 10:40 PM
I hope 4e is a commercial failure so it ruins the monetary potential for the D&D intellectual property archive for HASBRO. Then the suits at HASBRO will sell the property to some rich silicon valley nerd type for the love of the game.

That smart silicon valley type will reinvent D&D, creating it better than we can imagine.

Funny... this is exactly how 3e came to be...

Josh the Aspie
2009-06-25, 10:41 PM
As long as people are involved, there will be bias. I recommend 1) ensure you're aware of the author's bias, 2) check multiple sources with different biases, and 3) make your own decision - don't let any authority do so for you. :)

As one example, I tend to read three different news sites. One has a generally conservative bias, a second is generally liberal. The third is overseas. Between the three differing points of view I tend to get enough information to form my own opinion...which is, of course, biased by my personal philosophy and experiences. :)

I have a bit less of the international news, and a bit more print media myself.

Fox primary, CNN secondary, somewhat liberally biased local newspaper (just look at their voting recommendations), and occasional looks at other local, national, and international news sources from else-where.

Some of my favorite commentators are Glen Beck, Judge Nepalitano, and Lou Dobbs.

Oracle_Hunter
2009-06-26, 01:17 AM
What I've learned from this thread is that there's NOBODY that the gaming community will accept to fairly discuss whether 4e is doing well or not. Information from WotC is tainted, information from retailers is biased, information from gamers is anecdotal, information from distributors is flat wrong...there's nobody whom the community will trust to give them the information. EVERYONE has a bias somehow, and even the possibility of bias evidently magically makes any possible argument by a given person automatically invalid.

How do you people get your news? If you dismiss it out of hand because there's potential of bias, like what's been done here, I can't see how you can watch ANY form of news, from anywhere.

:smallyuk:
Welcome to the world of Confirmation Bias (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias)

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/73/The_More_You_Know.jpg

Swordguy
2009-06-26, 01:23 AM
Welcome to the world of Confirmation Bias (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias)


No kidding. I do love the fact that it goes both ways, and neither party (for OR against 4e) is about to admit that they're reading their own biases into the info or simply dismissing it because it doesn't fit their worldview.

Ryusacerdos
2009-06-26, 01:33 AM
I think what 4E could use is a big name computer game with its system (Like Baldur's Gate for 2E and Neverwinter Nights for 3E), to create interest in the pen and paper version. I haven't heard of a 4E computer game in production yet.

Tsotha-lanti
2009-06-26, 01:35 AM
I think what 4E could use is a big name computer game with its system (Like Baldur's Gate for 2E and Neverwinter Nights for 3E), to create interest in the pen and paper version. I haven't heard of a 4E computer game in production yet.

Oh lordy me how I wish they could go turn-and-grid-based, like the good old Gold Box games.

Fat chance, though.

Oh well.

FoE
2009-06-26, 01:38 AM
Of course he would say that. He's just a puppet of the Man, man!

Ryusacerdos
2009-06-26, 01:38 AM
Oh lordy me how I wish they could go turn-and-grid-based, like the good old Gold Box games.

Fat chance, though.

Oh well.

Have you played Final Fantasy Tactics, something similar, or one of its sequels? Turn based rpg combat on a grid battlefield.

A game based on 4E rules and using a system like FFT would be interesting.

Colmarr
2009-06-26, 01:40 AM
Oh lordy me how I wish they could go turn-and-grid-based, like the good old Gold Box games.

You know what has me squeeing at the moment?

Cyanide making a Blood Bowl game that can be played turn-based or real time. That has so much potential for use with D&D games that I feel light-headed.

Swordguy
2009-06-26, 01:44 AM
I think what 4E could use is a big name computer game with its system (Like Baldur's Gate for 2E and Neverwinter Nights for 3E), to create interest in the pen and paper version. I haven't heard of a 4E computer game in production yet.

(I'm SO sorry guys, I just can't help myself. This is right over the plate...)

They've already made one. Haven't you played WoW*?



*Amusingly, City of Heroes is actually a MUCH closer match for the 4e mechanics and assumptions. And NO - I don't think that apeing playstyle assumptions from an MMORPG is an automatic bad thing.



You know what has me squeeing at the moment?

Cyanide making a Blood Bowl game that can be played turn-based or real time. That has so much potential for use with D&D games that I feel light-headed.

THAT is flipping awesome. I'm sqeee'd out right now, though, Catalyst Game Labs just brought back the old Macross designs that I grew up with that were removed from BattleTech for legal reasons back in the mid-90s. Otherwise I'd be right there with you. :smalltongue:

Colmarr
2009-06-26, 01:52 AM
THAT is flipping awesome... Otherwise I'd be right there with you. :smalltongue:

My only concern is that to get the most benefit from it I'll need either an upgraded PC or Xbox live. I have neither, and as much as I love Blood Bowl and squee over the chance of it finally being done justice on a computer, I just don't see myself achieving either requirement just for this game :smallfrown:

Panda-s1
2009-06-26, 05:09 AM
What I've learned from this thread is that there's NOBODY that the gaming community will accept to fairly discuss whether 4e is doing well or not. Information from WotC is tainted, information from retailers is biased, information from gamers is anecdotal, information from distributors is flat wrong...there's nobody whom the community will trust to give them the information. EVERYONE has a bias somehow, and even the possibility of bias evidently magically makes any possible argument by a given person automatically invalid.

How do you people get your news? If you dismiss it out of hand because there's potential of bias, like what's been done here, I can't see how you can watch ANY form of news, from anywhere.

:smallyuk:
FWIW, this is the first really thorough and well laid out opinion of whether or not 4e is doing well. All I've seen so far is Mongoose going "4e is different, so it's not selling as well, lol," despite the fact Mongoose d20 supplement are considered by many to be kinda broken, and that Dancey guy being a disgruntled employee.

Also in comparing Goodman Games to Mongoose, I think Goodman has a much better track record in the realm of awards and player recognition. You also have to take into account the fact that a rather large, majority-sized chunk of GG material is 4e related, and their adventures are known to sell pretty well. If there's a third party company I'm gonna trust to talk about whether or not 4e is doing well, it's them.

I think what 4E could use is a big name computer game with its system (Like Baldur's Gate for 2E and Neverwinter Nights for 3E), to create interest in the pen and paper version. I haven't heard of a 4E computer game in production yet.

Have you played Final Fantasy Tactics, something similar, or one of its sequels? Turn based rpg combat on a grid battlefield.

A game based on 4E rules and using a system like FFT would be interesting.

They did make a tactics game for D&D. Dungeons & Dragons Tactics for the PSP, which funnily enough uses 3.5 rules (even funnier given that it came out way before 4e).

That being said, I don't think 4e would be the best idea for a computer RPG, especially how grid based it can be. I guess it would be easy to adapt, though.

Edit: Okay, I exaggerated, it was only a year before 4e (not even, actually). Still kinda funny.

Yora
2009-06-26, 05:38 AM
I think what 4E could use is a big name computer game with its system (Like Baldur's Gate for 2E and Neverwinter Nights for 3E), to create interest in the pen and paper version. I haven't heard of a 4E computer game in production yet.
BioWare doesn't seem interested, as they did no franchise-based RPG since KotOR six years ago.

Yora
2009-06-26, 05:42 AM
It's win-win unless you are of the opinion that 4e is somehow diminishing the hobby.
Of course it does. It's like "I hate you, because you got less homework to do then me." :smallamused:

KjeldorMage
2009-06-26, 07:02 AM
It seems pretty straight forward.

4th edition is a result of a need to attract new players.

As with any gaming update or reprint, it is just another way to try to get you to part with your money.

Whether it is doing ok or it isn't, we shouldn't look to the game developers as people who have ideals about the game but as part of a machine to produce a product.

Obviously some market research came a long and allowed to show that there would be a market for updating and bring in a new revenue stream. These people aren't idiots, they invest time in looking at future business trends.

As with the ever changing rules with Warhammer and Warhammer 40k (some of the other large gaming retailers) Hasbro saw that they could release new rules for a game system that was working perfectly fine within a few years of each other. The fans continued to buy and update their rules and minis even due to the changes. It makes gaming more like a buffet where you can pick what suits you best and run it.

Frankly, that is why I am slow to buy anything from them. I learn the rules, get a feel for the standards, and write my own creatures and my own adventures. The whole idea of an RPG is to take a game system and apply it to choose your own adventure stories you are telling your friends. I don't see a need to reward those people who came up with a system with anything more than buying miniatures to help keep your battle paced. At least they are a tangible where as the books are full of such tripe. I did however purchase a player's handbook back in the 3.5 days.

I ran a free form 2.0 campaign for the longest time (97-02) without any books. It was successful because I learned an easy game system and applied it the way I felt worked better.

So in summation with my over the map arguements. If 4th edition does well or doesn't do well, don't fret. You have the rules in place, go forth and play them how you want. Make up house rules. That is the thing with RPG gaming, making a market off of books shows a general lack of imagination on gamers parts. All you need is a game system, some dice, a 12 pack of mountain dew, 3-6 good friends, possibly some minis, and your own wildly over active imagination. The resources to learn gaming systems are out there you just have to find them.


Side note: It took me so long to get a grip on 3.5 that I am in no mood to even start looking at 4th right now. So my bias is that I really don't want to change what I am doing right now.

shadzar
2009-06-26, 07:51 AM
Actually, this isn't hapening just with D&D and comics books.

The terrible truth is, most companies wich do entertainment that comes in paper form are changing it to computer form.

Wotc may have sent the stores to hell, but it created DDI, and it's pretty clear it's their real bet in the future. They're still pringing the books, but I wouldn't be admired if in a span of few years the only way you can legally acess the latest official D&D products is by joining their online money sucker system.

This is, there were people on this very forum telling that they actually prefered to pay full price for a digital book. It's actually a gold mine if you think about it, focusing on those kind of people who're willing to pay for nothing, cuting down in paper costs, and probably quality costs.
This is true, and I wasn't just trying to say only gaming stores were in trouble, because places like Walmart, and others have started dropping departments (65 IIRC) and what they carry, and being more scrutinizing on what they will carry.

Just the fact that when you are running a comic and gaming store, all the factors pretty much can FUBAR you entire store profile and what you are carying.

Just look at the most recent changes and hardships they face:
*GW price increase. OK so this isn't anything new, but it does damage each time
*Comic book sales drops giving way to manga visual novels that cannot be carried in as great numbers.
*Comic book price increases
*Clix games gone
*Yu-gi-oh almost gone
*DDM gone
*4th edition D&D making all d20 material obsolete

For many stores this may leave them only with Magic the Gathering to depend on, and it can no longer support a gaming store.

Even those other hobbies are having hard time for stores you would see carrying gaming products.

Gas price increases has hurt RC sales. Petroleum prices in general have hurt modeling either kits or sculptors. Paints are going up in price as sales decline because of the recent decade of "lazy minis enthusiasts"*, and pre-painted minis.

What really does the gaming store have left to go on? Trying to keep up with enough of the latest consoles and hottest games for them to rent time to people to play? Arcades are already dying as is and stand-ups aren't really making a comeback after the 30 years of in-home console games and PC games. Have you ever tried Playstation or XBOX gaming in a store? The accounts are tied to the machine and store so you cannot really do anything, and each computer would only allow certain people to play with the limit of characters in an MMO. So if the computer you were using is occupied you cannot jump to another to play City of Heroes, or WoW, because the character only works for that one Pc with its own CD-Key.

Console and PC games aren't meant to be run out of a store, and the cost to keep up with them and have enough for everyone to access isn't possible.

Walmart and things can fall back on overpriced grocery sales ($8 for a gallon of milk? I'll buy a damn cow!), but what do many of these gaming stores do after recent happenings to stay alive?

Without these stores, RPGs will start to die as console games take over because of the instant gratification factor. You don't need to read a book or even spend 30 minutes getting a character ready. You turn on the machine and BAM visual and audio candy right there in a matter of minutes.

It has been happenings for a while, and I may have been a bit harsh on 4th because I despise what it stands for; but it played its part in helping this problem and played a big one in that.

So what really do these stores do that have been kept alive by things that have either gone, or changed so drastically, they might as well be new entities?

The only gaming stores you will have left is ones in major metropolises, and DDI wouldn't be able to support the game really.

I like AD&D core rules for what it does. I like computer games, even some of the vast number of D&D ones from the gold box era (Hillsfar, Eye of Beholder, Dark Queen trilogy, etc I have them all) and NWN both Bioware and original AOL version (that is standalone and working on my windows XP PC, but don't ask me how I got it to work, or how to get into the sewers! :smallfurious:)

I am a technophile, but don't want all my gaming to be online. Even if they were to try, with recent HASBRO hiring freezes, and Atari having the license until 2017 to make computer games, there will be no fully functioning DDI with game table et all until after that license expires, which means likely 5th edition, which is why there won't be one for online gaming for 4th edition. The are probably just working on it now for 5th edition rather than bothering put one out for 4th.

So with all this and the attempt to move to digital, actual game stores are taking even more hits below the belt, that will see them end as people move to their Kindle and iPhones, and all that proprietary software crap that we older people fought tool and nail to remove from the market so people could enjoy more things. Try going back to the IBM days and using only their machines with proprietary equipment, or the Apple proprietary route.

And don't even think about offering free wi-fi in a gaming store, because the bandwidth costs would run you out of business just with people bringing in DS and PSPs, unless you try to charge for it, and people can just go home or somewhere else for that matter, so don't need your store for it.

The game stores are things of the past, and the market, and consumers have let them become that. It is sad, but it is true.

What I've learned from this thread is that there's NOBODY that the gaming community will accept to fairly discuss whether 4e is doing well or not.

The problem of it is most of the info is one-sided and there are educated people out here that don't let the wool get pulled over their eyes by only focusing on one thing and can see the bigger picture in our society.

Duke of URL
2009-06-26, 08:07 AM
I'm going to chip in with a "startup publisher" viewpoint here. As we wrap up our first few products for publication (going through final revisions and typesetting), one of the things we are looking at is "how do we distribute a product?"

I can tell you right off, going the normal distribution route to brick & mortar stores was one of the first options eliminated. There's too much up-front cost for a low-funded startup to even consider, and the return on investment is really no better than publishing on demand.

So we'll be using POD with web ordering (and the products will also be available at Amazon) and PDF download (from RPGNow) -- it's a much lower overhead option for a startup company. If/when we start selling in quantities large enough to make full-sized print runs a reasonable prospect we can re-evaluate that; and only then will the "traditional" distribution method be considered -- and even then only if looks worthwhile.

As to whether or not 4e is successful -- I don't think it matters much to OGL publishers. If anything, Goodman should be concerned if WotC's model is too successful, because eventually, the only way you're going to sell anything (in any quantity) related to 4e is through DDI, and I'm not sure what that's going to mean for a 3rd party publisher.

Yora
2009-06-26, 08:10 AM
It may be tragic for the store owners, especially if they are allready in debt, but I think gaming stores are just no longer needed.
When the first department stores came 80 years ago, there was lots of complaining that all these little 2-employes shops would go out of business. As they eventually did. And now, at least in germany, all those department stores have to close one after the other because their departments can't compete with the greater selection you find in specialized shopes which only sell one typ of product with lots of variants.
In the last 6 years, I was to a gaming store only once. I was disappointed at the small selection of rpg books they had and left. the shop closed two months later. When I buy on amazon, I have a massive selection to pick from, get it shiped to my home for free, and the books are even cheaper than in a gaming store. In a store, I could take a quick look inside before I decide to buy it, but today I can get lots of reviews on rpg-sites, which usually give me a better idea if I'll like the contents than fliping through the pages for 3 minutes.
Gaming stores are just no longer needed.

shadzar
2009-06-26, 08:27 AM
Gaming stores are just no longer needed.

:smallconfused:

You may be right, but there is still something to be had from face-to-face communication that is being lost in this digital age.

Also some things only work in gaming stores. You can't run tournaments in department stores, and not everyone has conventions they can attend.

So gaming stores REALLY are needed by the companies that make games, and these companies REALLY need to do something to help support them.

OF which Goodman is doing by offering $1000 worth of free product to a lucky store in light of this recent mention about stores in general. The thread can be found in Goodmans forums as well their front page.

With going full digital WotC could be hurting itself because Magic wouldn't have many places left even after the new tournament system where anyone can be a TO.

So their major cash cow would be hurt with the loss of gaming stores.

Yora
2009-06-26, 08:37 AM
That's of course true. But there's not longer enough demand to sustain that type of business model.
And of course, it might cause the overall market to shrink, but there's no single player who could control where the whole market is going.

Tiki Snakes
2009-06-26, 10:18 AM
With going full digital WotC could be hurting itself because Magic wouldn't have many places left even after the new tournament system where anyone can be a TO.

So their major cash cow would be hurt with the loss of gaming stores.

Worth remembering WotC Haven't actually said that's what they're planning, and one of the things people have also been moaning about is them stopping selling digital copies of the dnd rules, which doesn't sound to me like they are abandoning B+M stores, considering one of the main reasons for the above put forth is to specifically support them. Eh? :)

shadzar
2009-06-26, 10:43 AM
Worth remembering WotC Haven't actually said that's what they're planning, and one of the things people have also been moaning about is them stopping selling digital copies of the dnd rules, which doesn't sound to me like they are abandoning B+M stores, considering one of the main reasons for the above put forth is to specifically support them. Eh? :)

Older editions sales were being helped by PDF sales though were they not?

I know several collections people sold to stores that saw quick sales by people when they knew they could get missing parts in PDF and be able to read at home and only needed the books to look stuff up in for, and other people could get the PDFs.

I really don't want to turn this into some PDF battle, but I don't think WotC, like GW knows really how to help B&M stores, because they barely take them into consideration when they do anything except to try to get the stores to carry more product because once the stores have the product WotC has its money.

The PDfs really play no part in B&M store sales where you look at the fact Amazon hurts B&M stores much worse than any PDF sales could, so WotC would need to actually lower their MSRP so the B&M stores could compete on the average price now, and drop online retaielrs.

Of course they won't do that because they make too much money for WotC from online retailers with the large volume of sales.

So WotC cares about itself more than any B&M. B&Ms only come as an afterthought, which can in turn hurt WotC...and they would deserve it.

SimperingToad
2009-06-26, 02:22 PM
FWIW, in my local city-dwelling area (let's see who can guess where), there was only one actual hobby shop when I first began playing in the summer of '78. And by hobby shop, I mean trains, slot cars, etc. This place had a small section positioned prominently in the front for the new D&D items, though no board games like Avalon Hill (even though AH was located a few miles down the street), as they had not the space.

It was sold off to a younger crowd (the owner was geting up there), and only lasted a few years after the 'kids' took over, about '85-ish.

That was it until I discovered an actual 'game' store a short drive away. No trains and such, strictly games. That lasted only a couple of years. I also discovered where the Armory was (makers of paints and dice and such). They had a decent store front at their site which closed about '96(?). We even had a WoTC store for about a year (2003?).

The longest lasting place started, and still primarily is, as a comic book store. I first went there almost 20 years ago, when they were a little basement shop. They expanded to a strip shop a few years later, and at the peak of 3E, they had 3 long shelves of RPG books, for any game you could imagine, plus a large selection of minis of different makes, and even GW stuff. They had in-house games as well.

Now, there is 1 sparsely populated shelf of RPG books, no in-house games (that I am aware of, though I have seen seminars for painting minis), GW is gone, two spinning racks for minis, no support for previous material. It's back to their roots in comic books. They do have some CCG and such material, but I wouldn't call it a huge section. They remained by adapting better to the market than anyone else, and given the lack of RPG material of any type, not just D&D, they don't see PnP as the big money-maker it once was. (it may be interesting to note that their 'clearance' section kept getting larger over the last few years before the downsize in the RPG section)

I can understand why Wizbro went the way they did with 4E's system. They're trying to appeal to the console/MMORPG crowd, and pull from that audience. It's a big audience. What they should have done, however, is not to imitate, but innovate. OD&D was something new. The appeal went beyond wargamers, into the general population, the biggest audience one can imagine. There is nothing new in 4E. It was aimed at a select group. The appeal remains largely within that group. Given that we are lazy creatures (hence the use machines to work for us), I don't see a Renaissance of new people flooding to a PnP game which requires work over just pressing a button.

But, that's just my intuition talking. YMMV.

Swordguy
2009-06-26, 02:32 PM
The problem of it is most of the info is one-sided and there are educated people out here that don't let the wool get pulled over their eyes by only focusing on one thing and can see the bigger picture in our society.

Besides yourself, who would you trust to give an honest report of how 4e is doing? WotC can't. Competing game companies can't. Retailers can't. Distibutors can't. Players can't. So who can?

{Scrubbed}

BillyJimBoBob
2009-06-26, 02:48 PM
The "once in a generation" argument is silly and weakens his argument. I don't think he addressed why the launch year for 4e should be compared to non-launch years for previous editions.How does stating that there have been 2 banner years weaken his simple statement that 4e is selling well when compared at historical sales? It does not. The two things are completely different, and all I see Goodman doing is pointing that out. Re-read this:
In the 35 year history of D&D, we stand at a high point. D&D is selling more copies, reaching more customers, supporting more game stores, than it has during most of its history.When you analyze things it is typical to throw out statistical anomalies in order to judge by a more real baseline.
The problem I had with this article is that Goodman glosses over projections for the future and market strategy, which is what everyone really cares about.Everyone but Goodman, myself, and a good many other people, you must have meant to say. Goodman doesn't "gloss over" projections for the future, because he's not making any, other than saying at the end that he sees a "a long, strong run ahead of us." Which is not to say that 4e will do better than 3.x, as he takes care to also point out. He's simply letting people know what he is seeing now, and how it compares to historical sales.

I do disagree with him on one of his points. He said:

I believe brick-and-mortar hobby stores are the lifeblood of the industry.And then Grommen said:

[...] no one is willing to part with $100 bones for a new version of a game.What do these two things have in common? They fail to recognize that the on-line market place is the smart way to spend your money. Sure, if you want your 4e books now you will pay a pretty penny for them. But Grommen's price quote is 50% higher than it needs to be. (http://www.amazon.com/Dungeons-Dragons-Core-Rulebook-Gift/dp/0786950633/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1246043612&sr=8-1) In fact, for all those reports of 4e books not selling well at some particular game store I'm willing to bet that there are a lot of UPS trucks rolling around delivering 4e books in the surrounding neighborhoods. I pre-ordered my books and paid even less, and I didn't get the lowest price by $5 since I ordered close to release. "Support your local game store" is a great philosophy until they decide to hold their prices at retail and are charging 50%+ higher than their on-line competition. I'd pay a little more for a book I can browse at the store and then carry home that day rather than buy online and wait 3-5 days to be delivered. But not 50%+ more. That's just ridiculous.
3e brought a lot of new consumers to the industry and Wizards is trying to repeat that success with new demographics (the wii strategy). The financial future of the product line is going to depend on how well they can attract new gamers and how well people respond to their new publishing system.You're close, but not quite there. 4e wasn't an abandonment of 3.x, it was the inevitable new version. It didn't have to be the huge overhaul it turned out to be, but there was going to be a new edition published regardless, as sure as 3.5 followed 3 and 3 followed AD&D2. But I am curious what "new demographic" you think 4e is targeting that 3.x failed to target? If your answer is "ZOMG MMORPG, 4e is WoW duh" then I think I'll just file you away as a apt-named edition hater.

Roland St. Jude
2009-06-26, 02:55 PM
Sheriff of Moddingham: Please keep it civil in here. This is just a friendly discussion among friends about a hobby we share. Personal attacks are neither conducive to discussion nor permitted by the Forum Rules. That includes passive-aggressive, mildly phrased, cleverly worded, and all other personal attacks, insults, belittling, jabs, etc.

shadzar
2009-06-26, 03:04 PM
Besides yourself, who would you trust to give an honest report of how 4e is doing? WotC can't. Competing game companies can't. Retailers can't. Distibutors can't. Players can't. So who can?

{Scrubbed}

As with everything else in the world, someone without a horse in the race.

You cannot believe the company when their own reports contradict them from within the stockholders reports. The mention of WotC being "shopped around", makes it seem as though some things being said aren't right. I would doubt it to be Magic the Gathering that is the problem because it is their cash cow.

Most other people you mention have a horse in the race as well. So when asking them if their horse is going to win, what do you expect them to say?

I doubt they would respond with: "It's lame and 30+ years old so this is its final hoorah".

So you have to find someone without an investment into it, and with an unbiased opinion about it.

That is why movie and many other things have reviewers from outside of the direct industry.

This is where it is coming one-sided. The industry is telling you it is doing fine. I could provide examples of other places where that has been said, but would lead into politics/economy territory, and you can probably guess those places make claims things were doing well and recently went bankrupt or out of business while lying to their consumers and/or shareholders.

So who to believe? Someone that doesn't stand to profit from it one way or the other. Anecdotal evidence form the companies making the product are more marketing than facts.

BillyJimBoBob
2009-06-26, 03:07 PM
I just wouldn't put too much stock into what he [Goodman] says from his perspective because he just has too much riding on it and is not impartial.Really? You really see it from the angle of "I'm on this ship so I'll struggle to make people think it's afloat?" That's the wrong angle. Rather, consider that Goodman is a businessman who sees more favorable profitability with 4e. His type doesn't often gamble, they try to make the smart decisions. That doesn't guarantee success, of course, but to think that he moved from 3.x to 4e with only the hope that his blog posts to the community at large would prop up 4e sales doesn't seem to be a logical conclusion to draw.

Matthew
2009-06-26, 03:23 PM
Really? You really see it from the angle of "I'm on this ship so I'll struggle to make people think it's afloat?" That's the wrong angle. Rather, consider that Goodman is a businessman who sees more favorable profitability with 4e. His type doesn't often gamble, they try to make the smart decisions. That doesn't guarantee success, of course, but to think that he moved from 3.x to 4e with only the hope that his blog posts to the community at large would prop up 4e sales doesn't seem to be a logical conclusion to draw.

I agree. He is diversifying in any case. With the change in the GSL the Goodman Games D20/3e back catalogue is coming back in pdf and I even hear rumours that they are soliciting or accepting submissions for new AD&D compatible adventures. In the meantime he has licensed AD&D conversions of the DCC line to Black Blade Publishing (http://black-blade-publishing.com/) and supports several other lines of products as well. Whilst D20/4e sales appears to form a big part of their business plan, it would be no great feat for them to switch their focus to another edition or, indeed, game if it were more profitable. In short, there is no real reason for Goodman to "talk up" D20/4e sales.

shadzar
2009-06-26, 03:36 PM
Really? You really see it from the angle of "I'm on this ship so I'll struggle to make people think it's afloat?" That's the wrong angle. Rather, consider that Goodman is a businessman who sees more favorable profitability with 4e. His type doesn't often gamble, they try to make the smart decisions. That doesn't guarantee success, of course, but to think that he moved from 3.x to 4e with only the hope that his blog posts to the community at large would prop up 4e sales doesn't seem to be a logical conclusion to draw.

Look at how much faith people put into Gamer_zer0, and where he is now.

Goodman can put everything into their products and believe in them all they want. It doesn't mean everyone has to agree with them, or that they have all the facts.

If he has so much concrete information, then what isn't that posted rather than insults?


Back to myth #3: "retailers do not support 4E." Simply not true. Why not? Because Joe Goodman says so, and I know more about game stores than you do. Show me someone with the same list of credentials regarding direct retailer feedback, and I'll back down. Until then, the statement stands.

The God of all game stores telling us the future. Oh praise be unto Him.

:smallconfused:

Sorry Joe, you ain't know Bo.

Like WotC, Joe seems to think insulting people will more likely swat them rather than actually stating facts.

Facts are cold and dry, but someone with some holier than thou attitude deserves to fail, or at least looked at as what they are. They are just making a publicity or advertising stunt. Look at just how the "spurred" retail store contest came shortly after that bit on how well 4th edition is doing.

:smallconfused: HMMM?

Could it all have been a setup by a clever advertiser?

He can fel whatever he wants, but he is nothing but another cog in the wheel, and only a minor one at that. 4th edition doesn't need him, but he needs 4th edition. When you look at that then of course he or any other 3PP will give you the view they think is true or wants you to believe.

It would be like people just believing Pazio, should they be saying 4th edition is a tremendous flop. Well they have stakes in it being so, like Goodman has stakes in it being a success.

Again, what is needed is someone unbiased to look at all the raw data, provide it with some commentary.

So he can be one of the rats that don't leave the sinking ship hoping it won't sink completely. In the end he will still be a rat on a sinking ship, because 5th edition is coming, at which time the GSL he is using to make 4th edition products WILL be revoked in favor of the one for 5th edition.

What will he do then?

I see it from the angle, many of these people have something to gain from their so-called objective views, and we can clearly see that all of these views are subjective weighted with their own personal financial situation as one reason to have that view.

Give me someone that has nothing to gain or lose from 4th edition to tell me how well it is doing, THEN I will likely put more faith into their review of the situation.

Swordguy
2009-06-26, 03:52 PM
Give me someone that has nothing to gain or lose from 4th edition to tell me how well it is doing, THEN I will likely put more faith into their review of the situation.

Nobody who cares enough about RPGs to do that research is going to have nothing to gain or lose from 4e. Your preconditions are impossible to meet.

shadzar
2009-06-26, 04:09 PM
Nobody who cares enough about RPGs to do that research is going to have nothing to gain or lose from 4e. Your preconditions are impossible to meet.

Many other industries seem to prove you wrong.

S&E may have gotten tickets to free movies, but their success or failure meant nothing to them.

The credibility of the review is what kept them having jobs. So an unbiased opinion from an outside observer is very possible.

What you are trying to say is that the industry isn't cared about enough for outsider observers to get involved, and that is probably true.

But it can be done and the conditions are NOT impossible to be met.

I doubt anyone would do it, but the industry as a whole could hire some outside sources to look into the health of the industry itself, and that would give unbiased views of the entire industry and not be tied to one company or the other as each company would pony up money that the reviewers and investigators would get without knowing who paid how much and give a fair analysis of it.

You just got to get the companies to work together, which is becoming hard in light of recent times.

Call it journalistic integrity if you will about the views. The person(s) would need to be objective about it with nothing to gain from either finding.

If no one could be found to do that, then 4th edition as well the RPG industry isn't doing well at all, as it has been done before with fewer publishers making RPGs where independent researchers rated the industry. :smallwink:

Tsotha-lanti
2009-06-26, 04:15 PM
Many other industries seem to prove you wrong.

S&E may have gotten tickets to free movies, but their success or failure meant nothing to them.

Movie reviewers review movies, though - they don't look at ticket sales, production values, and the like. It's pretty much not even remotely comparable to essentially auditing an entire business (or even one company).

Asheram
2009-06-26, 04:21 PM
I just don't believe that a person that have been so..."quiet"... suddenly just feels the need to go fourth for the first time and say that the product sells well...
It just sounds fishy to me.

PurinaDragonCho
2009-06-26, 04:59 PM
The perspective of anyone who, like me, hasn't done market research and addresses the question based on their own experience is anecdotal and of limited value.

BUT... in my town, 4e is doing great. Almost everybody who plays D&D is playing 4e, and it has apparently drawn some new people into the hobby. This is based on my search for a 3.5 game, which has resulted in exactly bupkiss.

So in my opinion, 4e is selling very well - there seems to be a nearly 100% conversion among people who still play in this market.

I only wish I enjoyed playing 4e. Because I don't.

Panda-s1
2009-06-26, 05:45 PM
As to whether or not 4e is successful -- I don't think it matters much to OGL publishers. If anything, Goodman should be concerned if WotC's model is too successful, because eventually, the only way you're going to sell anything (in any quantity) related to 4e is through DDI, and I'm not sure what that's going to mean for a 3rd party publisher.

Wait... what? That's not how DDI works.


I just don't believe that a person that have been so..."quiet"... suddenly just feels the need to go fourth for the first time and say that the product sells well...
It just sounds fishy to me.
Well for starters it's been a year since 4e came out. A year is a good benchmark to tell whether or not a product is doing well. Too soon and you're just relying on the new product factor. Also it would be kinda unprofessional of him to tout whether or not 4e is doing well on a regular basis, that kind of behavior is frowned upon in the retail world last I checked.

TheThan
2009-06-26, 06:09 PM
Even if DnD 4E fails and the industry crumbles, the hobby will still survive. Its not like our books are going to magically burn to ashes should the industry collapse.

ericgrau
2009-06-26, 06:16 PM
^ And what kind of soda do you drink? RC Cola? Maybe, but it's unlikely. 90% of people get what they hear about, and the failure of d&d or 4e would be a sad blow in that the number of players would decline dramatically. Which means less people for us to play with. Maybe less so in your particular age group, but certainly in younger people to come and even for new players in your same age group.

I think this matter was answered quite well in the first two replies: The release of 4e should in fact be compared to the release of 3e. And it's not doing as well, but it's doing quite well. And while I prefer 3e, I see 4e's success as a good thing. Heck, I couldn't be happier than to see it to do well yet still be out-done by 3e. Maybe I'll get to play some 3e games with 4e players if they hear about it. Or if future players happen to play 4e when I come by, I'd play that with them too.

BillyJimBoBob
2009-06-29, 01:28 PM
Back to myth #3: "retailers do not support 4E." Simply not true. Why not? Because Joe Goodman says so, and I know more about game stores than you do. Show me someone with the same list of credentials regarding direct retailer feedback, and I'll back down. Until then, the statement stands.
[minor snippage]The God of all game stores telling us the future. Oh praise be unto Him.

Like WotC, Joe seems to think insulting people will more likely swat them rather than actually stating facts.

Facts are cold and dry, but someone with some holier than thou attitude deserves to fail, or at least looked at as what they are. They are just making a publicity or advertising stunt.Egotistical, perhaps bombastic, yes. But not in a vacuum. He both lists and describes his credentials in detail, and says that he'll "back down" (whatever that means) if someone can show him that they know more. It could have been phrased in more politically correct language, but he isn't just running off at the mouth with no backing other than opinion.

And publicity stunt? Please. I'd never heard of Goodman or his company before the link to his site was posted by the OP. I don't know what kind of traffic his blog sees, but smart money is that it isn't very high. Again, it doesn't make any kind of sense to believe that he feels that simply talking up a failing product is going to make his investment in 4e a success.

Give me someone that has nothing to gain or lose from 4th edition to tell me how well it is doing, THEN I will likely put more faith into their review of the situation.I have a feeling you'd find bias in any review that said good of 4e. I like 4e, but I bought the books, so obviously I have a bias because I'd have wasted $65 if 4e was a poor product, right?

And your whole rant about "5e is coming and Goodman is screwed", not quoted here for length... You've got to be kidding if you're trying to tell us that a businessman who has seen 3.5 move on to 4 is going to be blind to the simple fact that more editions are going to be coming down the pike in the years ahead. That's not even an argument that you'd be able to make against the average player, especially not an older player who has seen all versions from the 3 booklets through 4e. Goodman claims to be an enthusiast who started a business and has done a fair amount of research into the history of the game, it's not a rational argument at all that he doesn't have a clue about where things are eventually going. No edition lasts forever.

shadzar
2009-06-30, 10:24 AM
Yeah he sets up a nice little marketing ploy in order to get people's attention to his company and its products.

Step 1: Let's say how well 4th edition is doing.
Step 2: Let's show this in part by talking about game stores
Step 3: Let's make a contest and give a game store some free product.
Step 4: advertise all the stuff we are now publishing and let the marketing work to sell off our merchandise.

http://forums.gleemax.com/showthread.php?p=18917877#post18917877

As someone up-thread mentioned a while back, it seems odd for someone so quiet "about the business side of things", to all of a sudden after years come out to declare the success of the latest product they are hooked into publishing for.

It is marketing and advertising is all it is. Nothing he says can be seen a any other way. Otherwise why did it take him so long to mentioned how well any game or system was doing?

I would say some people are getting the wool pulled over their eyes with the marketing revolving around the latest edition of D&D, but the sad part is they are getting the whole flock of sheep pulled over their eyes to just buy whatever these advertisements are saying without taking a look at the motives for saying these things in them.

I have said 4th edition is a good game, but it is not D&D, and should not try to be. It could have been a much better game if it didn't try to be D&D, and might have been better for it, and a better seller, by selling the game on its own merits, rather than bastardizing D&D with some new game to replace and retcon it into death.

I am biased and despise 4th, but still say it does some good thing, for something other than D&D.

So I don't find bias in al things said, but only people with a stake in their own claims. If someone has something to gain or lose form a claim they make about their OWN products, then it is advertising.

J.Gellert
2009-06-30, 10:30 AM
The way I see it, it doesn't matter what people say. I am not going to go and buy 4E just because someone said it's selling well.

In my opinion, 4E was marketted completely wrongly. I am not an expert, but they way they brought it about... Seems like a blunder. But it still doesn't matter if it's selling well or not.

I say, again, wait and see. If 5E comes around in a couple years...

BillyJimBoBob
2009-06-30, 12:26 PM
I have said 4th edition is a good game, but it is not D&D, and should not try to be.It is D&D, because the people who own D&D say it is. You can despise it if you like, but that won't change that fact. 4e is D&D.

It could have been a much better game if it didn't try to be D&D, and might have been better for it, and a better seller, by selling the game on its own merits, rather than bastardizing D&D with some new game to replace and retcon it into death.Your words could have been spoken about any new release. They were spoken, in fact. Were you around when AD&D was published? 3.0? Fans everywhere have hated change as much as you apparently do. And yet change is inevitable. So where does that leave you?
Your books won't burst into flames, you can play whatever you like. But the game will no longer change. Perhaps you like that. Me, I've got a friend who has been running an AD&D campaign for the past 4 years. The PCs are at about 9th level now, and the guy who just started playing D&D is saying things like "Wow, Magic Users are very overpowered compared to the other classes." Makes me laugh, but not because it's funny. Change is a good thing when it addresses clear weaknesses in a system.

If someone has something to gain or lose form a claim they make about their OWN products, then it is advertising.You've got some history to support you, I'll grant. But the circumstances are different in this case. Plenty of companies have given the rosy forecast or pumped up their sales successes. But in this case the speaker has just recently made an investment, and is telling us why. I give more credibility to someone who says "I think the smart money is invested over here, and I just did so." It's quite a different point of view.

Tiki Snakes
2009-06-30, 12:31 PM
Your words could have been spoken about any new release. They were spoken, in fact. Were you around when AD&D was published? 3.0? Fans everywhere have hated change as much as you apparently do. And yet change is inevitable. So where does that leave you?

Actually, I understand Shadzar is a 2nd ed player. He was, infact, one of the above people. :)
Please, correct me if I'm wrong.

Kaiyanwang
2009-06-30, 12:37 PM
And yet change is inevitable. So where does that leave you?


"change is inevitable" is not an excuse for a company to print a low quality game. I see several point you made but this is IMHO not valid.

shadzar
2009-06-30, 12:49 PM
Actually, I understand Shadzar is a 2nd ed player. He was, infact, one of the above people. :)
Please, correct me if I'm wrong.

I do prefer 1st edition, but the books are so poorly organized, I had to switch to 2nd to be able to find things in the books. Had they only reprinted a more organized 1st edition, then it would still be going and TSR would probably have released 2nd sometime in 1995.

I play anything up to 2.5. I just don't like those "player's options" books and since 3.x was built on them, you can understand why I don't like it much. :smallyuk:

2nd wasn't needed, but the book organization surely was.

I have been playing (A)D&D since early 80s.

@BillyJimBoBob:

It is only D&D because people allow them to call it that. Should people disagree, you would see how quickly it was no longer D&D with 5th eidtion being announced well ahead of its time.

The company has the right to the name of the game, but doesn't own the spirit of it because they don't even know what that spirit is if you listen to the current designers.

Classic Coke...isn't. :smallwink:

Yora
2009-06-30, 01:04 PM
"change is inevitable" is not an excuse for a company to print a low quality game. I see several point you made but this is IMHO not valid.
Also, it isn't. They don't provide a service that is no longer available once it is discontinued. They sold us books which we can use practically forever and even if they start to fall apart in some 60 years, there's nothing that prevents people from making digital scans. Unless the world explodes and there are still polygonal dice, you can play 3.5e or any other edition for all eternity.

BillyJimBoBob
2009-06-30, 01:32 PM
"change is inevitable" is not an excuse for a company to print a low quality game. I see several point you made but this is IMHO not valid.You're so right, 3.0 and 3.5 should never have been printed. Luckily, they redeemed themselves with the excellent 4e offering.

See how that works?

Change is inevitable. You don't have to like the new versions, but they will be published as long as the company exists. Longer, actually, because if Hasbro ditches WotC and it dies the IP will be sold in the death throes and someone else will publish their own D&D, be it called 5e or whatever.


It is only D&D because people allow them to call it that.I don't know where you get these notions, but you might need to do a little research. It's called D&D because the owners of the IP call it that. "People allow them to"? Sounds like a conspiracy theory.

Dr. Jones: Who are you turning the Arc over to?
Agent: People. Top people.

Person_Man
2009-06-30, 02:09 PM
You know, I'm surprised he doesn't just publish his research from the 80's and 90's. Then all you'd have to do is buy one stock of Hasbro and write a few letters to get WotC current sales numbers. Then you could put it all on a graph, and people could definitely see whether or not sales numbers have gone up or down.

Also, I think it's interesting he doesn't mention population growth. The U.S. population has grown from 236ish million in 1980, to 291ish million in 2000, to 307ish million today. So even if 4E sales numbers today are the same as the peak sales numbers of AD&D in 1982 or 3E in 2001 (based on Goodman's experience, they're clearly lower), the ratio of gamers buying D&D (or of tabletop gamers as a portion of the overall population) has decreased.

Colmarr
2009-06-30, 06:23 PM
It is only D&D because people allow them to call it that. Should people disagree, you would see how quickly it was no longer D&D with 5th eidtion being announced well ahead of its time.

The company has the right to the name of the game, but doesn't own the spirit of it because they don't even know what that spirit is if you listen to the current designers.

:smallsigh:

Tehnar
2009-06-30, 07:41 PM
I found that the saying that 4th ed is not DnD has some basis. Let me explain via a analog. Since it is not the main point of the thread Ill spoiler it:


I am a fan of CPRGs. The top CRPGs I like are Fallout 1 and 2. To me they represent what a true CRPG is supposed to be. As Fallout 3 got released I naturally gave it a try and found the game lacking. Not that its a bad game, far from it. If Bethseda named it Elder Scrolls 2200 AD: a post nuclear adventure, I would have said "wow those guys did a good job, this game reminds me of fallout, the ending is meh but very good none the less". But they named it Fallout 3. And the game just didn't meet my expectations as a game from the Fallout franchise.

What I'm trying to say is that DnD 4th ed did not meet the expectations of the DnD franchise for some. And that is why they don't feel 4th edition is DnD. The why is probably different for every person, or maybe it they can't really quantify or explain it, bu 4th ed fells different from our expectation of a DnD game. That is not saying it is a bad game.


I may be pulling facts out of a garbled memory, but I think I remember that Coca Cola lost a large part of its sales when they decided to change their bottle shape. It actually took them a while to figure out why their sales are dropping (it probably wasn't a plummeting drop), but once they changed the bottle shape back their sales increased again.