Familicide: Oracle's Fault?

[Andore Mordre]

I would like to take this moment to say that this is NOT a 4-words thread.

Anyway, sorry if it's been discussed before, but...

I took a quick look back through the archives just to see Belkar kill the Oracle again, and thought of something.

Mother dragon tracked V down by visiting the Oracle and getting a prediction of the present, which led to the dragon attacking V, then V's family. This led to the deal with the fiends, familicide, etc.

So, my question is...the Oracle is granted powers by Tiamat to know pretty much everything, but why doesn't he look ahead to see what kind of consequences giving the predictions will have, and maybe help Tiamat prevent the destruction of 1/4 of the black dragons? :smallconfused:

[Belkster11]

Well, the dragon most likely didn't consider it herself, and even if they did know that V would wind up killing 1/4th of the black dragon species, they wouldn't care thinking it a remote possibility.

[Tenebrais]

The Oracle seems compelled to answer exactly whatever question he's asked. He may well have warned the mother dragon about these consequences, but she forgot that as soon as she left. Assuming the memory spell affects dragons.

[Faleldir]

The whole point of the Oracle is that he breaks the 4th wall even more than everyone else. He knows the entire plot, including his answers and how they will be interpreted. He knows he can't change the future because he's fictional and the Rule Of Funny would never allow it. He's just a puppet who can see the strings.

[Bracket]

If he didn't tell the black dragon where Vaarsuvius was, then the black dragon likely would have killed the oracle. Plus, the dragon may have eventually found V anyway, leading to the same result without the help of the oracle.

[Optimystik]

He's just a puppet who can see the strings.

That's a tad too deterministic for my tastes. I'd like to think he isn't completely omniscient, as Roy's defeat of his memory charm indicates.

At the same time, I find it stretches credulity a bit to think he didn't see this coming at all. Not bothering to check if your chosen method of evicting a ghost will allow him to keep his memory is one thing, but failing to predict a global event that affects a large number of your patron's servants is another matter entirely.

The way I see it, there are a couple of possibilities:

1. He did know. This leads to the following
a) He couldn't prevent it. Perhaps the dragons were destined to die even without Familicide. Thus he didn't warn Mama.

b) Tiamat saw some benefit in their deaths. Perhaps their deaths allow her to act directly in the world somehow, or seek some kind of restitution from the IFCC. We have to see her attitude to what happened to know which.

2. He didn't know.
a) Tiamat can't predict the actions of the IFCC: The "Covenant Not-To-Compete" may be a double-edged sword. It prevents the Fiends from granting divine spells to nonworshippers, and in return the evil gods can't interfere with their dealings, even to the point of being unaware of what they're up to.

b) Tiamat knew and simply didn't tell the kobold. This reads much like 1b.

Personally, I favor 2a.

[Kaytara]

It all comes down to the essence of predictions about the future. The question would be a valid one if the Oracle saw possibilities rather than rather than definite, unalterable future events set in stone.

But since he can only see the definite future, if we knew about the Familicide at all then it was the future and thus going to happen whatever he did.

Questioning that logic leads to questioning time paradoxes in general, which leads to headaches, which leaves to suffering.

[Optimystik]

Questioning that logic leads to questioning time paradoxes in general, which leads to headaches, which leaves to suffering.

Isn't hate in there someplace? (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0371.html) :smallwink:

[NerfTW]

Remember how he tried to warn Roy that he asked the wrong question?

The memory charm ONLY allows people to remember the answer to the question they asked. Even if he did tell the dragon about the familicide spell, it wouldn't have made a difference if her question was simply "Where is the location of the one who killed my son?". She would have had two options. Remain in the Oracle's tower for the rest of time, or take the risk that maybe she can change the future and kill V.

Upon leaving, the only thing she would remember is V's location, no matter what the Oracle told her about the consequences.

[Random832]

Remember how he tried to warn Roy that he asked the wrong question?

Which means he could advise her to ask a different question, before she asks it. Or give her a free question like when Roy hung him out the window.


The memory charm ONLY allows people to remember the answer to the question they asked.

Maybe it only allows humanoids to remember the answer to the question they asked. Dragons (maybe even just chromatic dragons) are a special case, because it's Tiamat. Epileptic tree evidence: The flashback panel to her arriving at the door supports this.

Anyway, we can expect that the oracle will be a lot friendlier and more helpful to chromatic dragons, because he's their oracle.

[NerfTW]

Maybe it only allows humanoids to remember the answer to the question they asked. Dragons (maybe even just chromatic dragons) are a special case, because it's Tiamat.

We have no evidence to support that theory, and all reason to believe that they're under the same charm as anyone else, given that any other explanation requires us to believe that she willingly went into a fight knowing it would lead to 1/4 of her race being killed off.

Also, we already know that the gods do not directly interfere with mortal realm, from the Crayons of Time segment. They can only act through clerics. We have no reason to believe that the Oracle is any nicer to dragons than he is to anyone else, despite the racial link. So it's entirely likely that the Oracle simply didn't tell her about the consequences, and Tiamat simply didn't care anymore than the twelve gods cared about Azure City being wiped off the map.

[Haven]

2. He didn't know.
a) Tiamat can't predict the actions of the IFCC: The "Covenant Not-To-Compete" may be a double-edged sword. It prevents the Fiends from granting divine spells to nonworshippers, and in return the evil gods can't interfere with their dealings, even to the point of being unaware of what they're up to.

Personally, I favor 2a.

This is what I've been considering. Actually, it may be possible that the Oracle's powers are limited to the Material Plane, which would explain why he didn't know about Roy bypassing his memory charm.

[Random832]

We have no evidence to support that theory, and all reason to believe that they're under the same charm as anyone else, given that any other explanation requires us to believe that she willingly went into a fight knowing it would lead to 1/4 of her race being killed off.

The entire point of this thread is to find an explanation that doesn't require that, given we know that the Oracle can choose to let someone ask more than one question and get more than one official answer, since he did so after being intimidated by Roy.

[Larkspur]

But the deaths of the dragons occur on the mortal plane, and they're carried out by V and the spiced souls, all non-fiend actors. Even if Tiamat can't see into the time stop where V made the bargain, she ought to be able to see Familicide, or at least its consequences. At the very least there should be gaps in the future where the actions of the now dead black dragons ought to show up.

[Snails]

I think it is a raw deal to pin any responsibility on the Oracle, for such things. Should he be saving the universe from Xykon and the Snarl, too?

We did not observe the ABD's conversation with the Oracle. It would be in character for the Oracle to drop hints. But the mythical tradition around oracles is that petitioners are very likely to misinterpret those hints, because they are too emotionally tied up in the issue at hand.

Roy was not stupid for stubbornly trying to outsmart the Oracle. It was the manner in which he chose to do so which was rather stupid AND FUNNY.

If the Oracle hinted at the dire risk of V drawing on resources from an unexpected ally, what exactly do you think the ABD would do? Try to catch V alone, most likely.

[David Argall]

So far as we know, the Oracle is heavily self-centered. We don't really have much reason to think he cares if the dragons died or not. Nor can we really assume an evil goddess is going to be all that upset about something evil happening to the dragons.

[NerfTW]

The entire point of this thread is to find an explanation that doesn't require that, given we know that the Oracle can choose to let someone ask more than one question and get more than one official answer, since he did so after being intimidated by Roy.

Exactly. But we don't know that the Oracle even gives a flying rat's buttocks about saving 1/4 of the black dragons on the planet. He might just be a jerk to everyone. If you could see the future, you'd probably be a bit of a fatalist as well.

The very likely explanation is simply that the Oracle dropped hints, the ABD failed to pick up on them or misinterpreted them, and that he didn't care enough to simply say "Ask a question about the result of your quest so that you'll remember after you leave". The gods have already been proven not to care about a significant chunk of their followers being killed, as evidenced by Azure City's fall.

Occam's Razor. The simplest explanation is usually the correct one.

[Aris Katsaris]

I'm with David and Nerf on this - we don't have any reason to think the Oracle would give a damn about the black dragons.

So I suggest adding option 1c) He knew and didn't really care one way or another.

[Fish]

We don't know for certain that "one question per visitor" is a rule the Oracle follows with everyone, either.

[Fish]

Something else occurs.
An army of Chaotic Evil dragons was just killed. Who else do we know that is Chaotic Evil and bound for the lower planes?

[Bibliomancer]

Perhaps the Kobold himself is CN, and so is only in this 'oracle' stuff for the money. Thus, he wouldn't care about a bunch of dragons dieing and was probably too busy focusing on pleasing the ABD when she was there (so that she didn't eat him) to look into the further ramifications of her actions.

[Optimystik]

So far as we know, the Oracle is heavily self-centered. We don't really have much reason to think he cares if the dragons died or not. Nor can we really assume an evil goddess is going to be all that upset about something evil happening to the dragons.

Tiamat not caring is a viable 5th option; she might even see it as "thinning the herd" so to speak, deeming any dragon that couldn't make a fortitude save against so diffused a spell to be unworthy of serving her.

The Oracle knowing and not caring about the dragons is a bit harder to swallow. He honors Mama even when not speaking to her, and Mama refers to him as "given to us," implying that his primary purpose on the planet is to dispense guidance to dragons before all others.

[Andore Mordre]

The Oracle knowing and not caring about the dragons is a bit harder to swallow. He honors Mama even when not speaking to her, and Mama refers to him as "given to us," implying that his primary purpose on the planet is to dispense guidance to dragons before all others.

That was my thought as well, which is why I brought up this whole dreary story.


Something else occurs.
An army of Chaotic Evil dragons was just killed. Who else do we know that is Chaotic Evil and bound for the lower planes?

Belkar? Does the Oracle really hate him that much? :smalltongue:

[Lazy Fat Man]

Seeing as that the whole purpose of the Oracle is to help dragons, it seems to me that the Oracle would attempt to do what is in the best interest of dragonkind.

The Oracle Businesstm is just a way for the oracle to make a little money on the side, I don't think that dragons have to follow the same rules as anyone else, though obviously I can't back that up. However if they are beholden to the same rules, then it would seem obvious that the dragon asked something along the lines of "What happened to my son" and the oracle responded "An elf named Vaarsuvius disintegrated him" . From that, the dragon could have scryed on V and then hir whole family, but I don't think scrying works like that. And it presupposes that the Oracle has to answer the question ,the whole question, and nothing but the question. Which seems plausible, since he tried to keep Roy from shooting himself in the foot with the whole "which of these two gates..." question, but then answered the question as asked.(I hope this sentence made sense.)

Anywho, this thread http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?t=116872 proposes a very interesting theory that I think merits some consideration. EDIT: The relevant part being that the loss of the black dragons may have been for the greater good of dragonkind.

[Xesirin]

Tiamat not caring is a viable 5th option; she might even see it as "thinning the herd" so to speak, deeming any dragon that couldn't make a fortitude save against so diffused a spell to be unworthy of serving her.

The Oracle knowing and not caring about the dragons is a bit harder to swallow. He honors Mama even when not speaking to her, and Mama refers to him as "given to us," implying that his primary purpose on the planet is to dispense guidance to dragons before all others.

I'd follow 2a. I think it would involve the least retconning out of any of them, assuming that any needs to be made in the first place.

I also agree with the statements here. When Roy was banished (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0572.html) from the oracle's tower, the Oracle refers to the dragon as "An Important Client", and we see in the flashback (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0628.html) that the dragon at least THINK's that the oracle belongs to them first, which is heavily communicated by the way the oracle regards her when they meet.

So yeah, I think it's alot more likely that the Oracle simply didn't know or couldn't tell her for some reason than it is for the Oracle to have not cared.

[Bibliomancer]

Tiamat not caring is a viable 5th option; she might even see it as "thinning the herd" so to speak, deeming any dragon that couldn't make a fortitude save against so diffused a spell to be unworthy of serving her.

We don't know that the spell had a saving throw. We are not shown any dragon surviving it. If it did have a saving throw, it would be a liability rather than an asset because there would be a large fraction of the family that survived to come after you, including distant relatives who might not have attacked in the first place.

[spectralphoenix]

It seems to me that the Oracle isn't completely omniscient. Rather, he has the ability to ask specific questions and recieve answers. So when he's asked "who killed my son?" he can ask the question and come up with the literal answer. He doesn't get information he doesn't ask for, like what would happen if the dragon leaves V to kill his/her family first.

Now, with time and inclination the Oracle could ask a large number of questions about an event and end up with a fairly accurate picture of what's going to happen (he probably researched Belkar's death when he predicted his own) but if Mama Dragon just came in, asked about V, and left, the Oracle wouldn't be able (and probably wouldn't bother, since he knows that Mama should be able to stomp V easily) to ask further questions about the fight.

[veti]

I think you guys are seriously overestimating the Oracle.

Sure, he can see the future. But he doesn't see all the future - he doesn't have that kind of time (who does?) - so how does he decide which bits to look at?

Well, obviously he looks at enough to answer questions he's asked. That's his Professional usage, that's what he has to do to make money and keep his perks.

Beyond that, though... my guess - based on what I'd do if I had that kind of power - is that he follows leads, strands, events that look baffling, or amusing, or otherwise entertaining. Just like surfing teh Intarwebs.

I guess he didn't particularly relish the sight of the dragon torturing V's family - because he's just not into that sort of thing. So then there's no reason why he'd try to follow that chain of events. He answered the question asked of him - anything beyond that is entirely optional, and why would he bother with it if it's not fun?

Edit: dammit, ninja'd.

[Thanatosia]

I don't think the Oracle knew the Familcide would happen. I think his power works by only answering the questions he asks of it, and unless the Dragon's question involved more forsight into future events then the location of her son's killer, neither the oracle nor the Dragon, perhaps even Tiamat, could fully know the fallout of the events they set into motion.

[jsager1015]

The answer to this is actually simple.

The Oracle is completely powerless to avoid predestined events, no matter how much talking he does.

Consider his conversation with Belkar, its result, and the cleric and wizard who ported in to raise him.

I'm thinking that if the Oracle could change things by being aware of them, he'd have avoided getting killed by Belkar, town of Lickmyorangeballshalfling notwithstanding.

[Optimystik]

We don't know that the spell had a saving throw. We are not shown any dragon surviving it. If it did have a saving throw, it would be a liability rather than an asset because there would be a large fraction of the family that survived to come after you, including distant relatives who might not have attacked in the first place.

I doubt Haerta would consider more victims a liability, and she designed the spell. You can always swap out "spell resistance" for "fortitude save" in my post and still have a line of reasoning that fits Tiamat's draconian attitude. :smallsmile:

[xocist]

I'll go with the determinstic one, cheers. Either that or the actions of the fiends and whatnot can't be seen. Here's why.
In order to see the future, there must be a certain future that's going to happen, otherwise it would be impossible to see. This is a given. An uncertain outcome means there's no chance of seeing the future.
Now, can certain beings go around this? Well... I'm guessing not. Seeming as those that see the future are those most likely to avoid living out this set life, and the actual act of seeing (something caused by the big ol' dragon-lady) TECHNICALLY counts as outside interference, thus as soon as somebody got a prophecy, it would be invalid. Also self-fulfilling prophecies (which have happened in oots already) wouldn't happen.
Of course, perhaps it takes something more to get around this, and maybe the gods have a special technique for altering things slightly, act with free-well as it were. If this is so the fiends might also have such a thing going on and thus the oracle (and wossaname dragon) didn't see it coming. Though IF that were the case (as I am rather skeptical of) then all other prophecies yet to be fulfilled can be called into question, as V's act has altered the direction of things and what would've happened otherwise probably won't happen now. Which clearly won't happen (in fact due to the fact that the Oracle's view on belkar's future hasn't changed, it's VERY likely this free-will/unseen future thing isn't right). Also, as the fiends are probably responsible for fulfilling V's prophecy, it's likely the Oracle foresaw the coming events, and this strengthens my case.
In short, even though the Oracle saw it coming he could do nothing to prevent it. Similar to how, if Belkar learnt he was going to die (yes, I know some of you think that's not going to happen, but shush for a second) he couldn't prevent it. Heck, the knowledge would probably cause his death somehow (directly or indirectly... possibly due to a heart attack upon learning that- oh smeg... that's already been done) Point is... yeah... umm... Determinism FTW!!
(Incidently, though I'm sure at least one of them probably knew, I'm not commenting either way on whether or not ol' five heads or the oracle gave a smeg about it either way.)

[ericgrau]

It may be that the oracle only looked at the answer to the mother dragon's specific question, and didn't think to look at what happened after that. This would explain why he forgot to check if the memory charm would work after a dismissal, why he always gets interrupted during showers, etc. And while he specifically checks to see when he dies, he doesn't necessarily think to check if every single one of his clients might die.

[Optimystik]

An uncertain outcome means there's no chance of seeing the future.

Pause right there; this statement is not wholly accurate, and it seems your entire post is based on it. An uncertain outcome can mean that one eventuality is far more likely to occur than another; in other words, the seer sees the possibilities, and communicates the most likely one to the asker. Furthermore, seeing one outcome doesn't mean that the prophet sees every single permutation of that outcome. I might know what you'll do next week or next month, but that doesn't mean I can see what will happen as a result of THAT action. So the situation is more complex than you're making it sound.

[Lazy Fat Man]

In this comic http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0568.html Haley strongly implies that the Oracle's advice helped her out. If that is true, then would that not mean that the Oracle's predictions can alter the future? And therefore, the future is not determined.

The hypothesis that he can only see the future if it pertains to a question is false, as no one ever asked him to predict Belkar's death (the first visit). Also, he looked into the future and read the oots book to translate Haley's speech unprompted. (And how can he understand blackwing?)

I find it highly probable that he only knows of the future that he bothers to look into, as Ericgrau (Two posts up) said. However, if he knew that V would gain ultimate arcane power it's reasonable to assume he also knew the circumstances thereof. That fact also negates the hypothesis that he can not see into the demons affairs, since they were the cause of said power. (Assuming that the prediction referred to the soul-splice, and not some future event.)

Here's an interesting question. Why did the oracle give Roy and Durkon two answers on their very first visit? (Actually three answers, but you know what I mean) Even if they killed him, he could would just have gotten raised. So why grant them the second question? (Granted this was probably just a joke on the giants part, but still).

[multilis]

The oracle doesn't want to die permanently.

Snarl... What happened with V might be needed to stop Snarl eventually.

If Future can't be changed, then attempting to change the future may often be fatal (to prevent success in changing future) [It may not be possible to know the future in any case where that would change it]

[Porthos]

In this comic http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0568.html Haley strongly implies that the Oracle's advice helped her out. If that is true, then would that not mean that the Oracle's predictions can alter the future? And therefore, the future is not determined.


But The Oracle knew that Belkar would kill him (and he said - and more importantly acted - as much). And the only reason Belkar had a chance to kill him was the fact that Haley remembered that the Oracle's advice helped her out. Therefore the future wasn't being changed.

This is the very definintion of a Self Fufilling Prophcey.

Put it another way: To know the future absolutely is to be chained to it absolutely. So while it is very possible that The Oracle doesn't look into each and every occurance of the future (and more importantly, their after affects) what he does look into happens.

We simply haven't seen an instance where The Oracle looked into the future and it didn't happen. The only potential candidate is Roy's third visit to The Oracle... But that was already immediately explained away in-comic as a presumption, not a predicition.

Now here's the thing. Much like Time Travel, Precognition can lead to very migrane inducing headaches if one is not careful. Or even if one is careful, actually. The only real way to avoid these headaches is to keep things as simple as possible, rulewise:

And from what we have observed from the comic here are the Simple Rules:

If The Oracle looks into a future event, it happens. (He's batting a thousand so far)
The Oracle doesn't always need to be in a trance to see a future event. (too numerous to mention)
If The Oracle tries to stop a future event from happening, it happens anyway. ("You're going to die of a heart attack" and "Are you sure that's your question")
The Oracle is still able to control his own destiny. (constantly telling people when to raise him, having all sorts of magic items on him)

The last point is a bit of a sticky point, of course. And potentially the most headache inducing. After all, what if he saw a future event that said he would die with absolutely no way of coming back? On the other hand perhaps the fact that he is looking into the future and never seeing that is testament to his guile and his ability to manipulate things to such a degree that the situation literally can never come to pass.

Really the whole idea of precognition combining with personal free will is just a minefield waiting to happen if one looks at it too closely. In fact the whole idea of a "fixed deterministic timeline in both directions and free will" is almost as headache inducing (although it is possible philosphically speaking to reconcile those notions).

If I were reading this comic (and I am :smalltongue:) I wouldn't think about it too closely and just give what the comic serves me. That way I don't have to roll 1d6 SAN loss each and every time I try to make sense of it all.

And if The Oracle should ever prove fallible? Well I'll just roll with that punch when it happens. :smallwink:

<<< Edit as to not Double Post>>>

BTW: Since Rich is already on record (in the commentary in WaXPs) as to the whole point about the prophecies (they're designed to give people a hint of what is to come in the comic), I'm not exactly sure why we're still debating whether or not they'll actually happen. :smalltongue:

Sure, Rich immediately subverts the idea by mentioning that the prophecies could come to pass in an unexpected fashion. And, sure, Rich could have been leaving out important info in his commentary (that The Oracle is fallible). But from everything that is currently on record, wouldn't the simplest explanation be that, headache inducing philosophical musings notwithstanding, what The Oracle says is going to happen, is going to happen.

After a fashion, at least. :smallwink:

[spectralphoenix]

The hypothesis that he can only see the future if it pertains to a question is false, as no one ever asked him to predict Belkar's death (the first visit). Also, he looked into the future and read the oots book to translate Haley's speech unprompted. (And how can he understand blackwing?)


As I mentioned in my first post, he probably asked (himself) a number of questions pertaining to Belkar, since he knew Belkar was going to kill him. I'm not suggesting he has to be asked a question by someone else to use his powers, merely that he has to come up with the question in the first place. It simply didn't occur to him to ask if a 14th level wizard would kill every member of his client's extended family with a single spell.

[spargel]

The answer to this is actually simple.

The Oracle is completely powerless to avoid predestined events, no matter how much talking he does.

Consider his conversation with Belkar, its result, and the cleric and wizard who ported in to raise him.

I'm thinking that if the Oracle could change things by being aware of them, he'd have avoided getting killed by Belkar, town of Lickmyorangeballshalfling notwithstanding.

That's impossible, unless some kind of divine force makes him act the same way. If the Oracle looked into the future to see what he will say, do you think he would be able to change that?


In order to see the future, there must be a certain future that's going to happen, otherwise it would be impossible to see. This is a given. An uncertain outcome means there's no chance of seeing the future.

I would just say that seeing into the future is impossible.

[Porthos]

If the Oracle looked into the future to see what he will say, do you think he would be able to change that?

Under what we have observed in-comic?

Nope.

As I said previously, "headache inducing". :smallwink:


I would just say that seeing into the future is impossible.

In Real Life, that's certainly (and very probably) likely. But since Rich can control the Laws of Physics (and more importantly The Laws of Drama) for his comic, isn't apparent that The Oracle can look into the future with absolute certaintiy? :smallsmile:

[veti]

Here's an interesting question. Why did the oracle give Roy and Durkon two answers on their very first visit? (Actually three answers, but you know what I mean) Even if they killed him, he could would just have gotten raised. So why grant them the second question? (Granted this was probably just a joke on the giants part, but still).

Easy: dying hurts.

To say nothing of that Expert level it costs.

[Moriarty]

Under what we have observed in-comic?

Nope.

As I said previously, "headache inducing". :smallwink:



it doesn't really makes sense, but this is propably true.

if the oracle could change the future, he would definitely try to avoid his next death, being torn into little pieces by a raging druid is something you may want to prevent happening if you know it. (the druid isn't going to remember it anyway, so using teleport or illusions after answering his question would save him a lot of pain)

[spargel]

Under what we have observed in-comic?

Nope.

As I said previously, "headache inducing". :smallwink:


What if a guy who is determined to prove the Oracle wrong comes up to him with an apple and asks "What number of minutes will pass before I eat the apple I'm holding in my hand?"



In Real Life, that's certainly (and very probably) likely. But since Rich can control the Laws of Physics (and more importantly The Laws of Drama) for his comic, isn't apparent that The Oracle can look into the future with absolute certaintiy? :smallsmile:

It doesn't really stop it from being a paradox.

[Andore Mordre]

What if a guy who is determined to prove the Oracle wrong comes up to him with an apple and asks "What number of minutes will pass before I eat the apple I'm holding in my hand?"

The Oracle keeps him in the tower with no food (except the apple) and tells him how long until he starves.

Or, he simply eats the apple himself and says "Never".

[Fish]

What if a guy who is determined to prove the Oracle wrong comes up to him with an apple and asks "What number of minutes will pass before I eat the apple I'm holding in my hand?"
"As many as it takes. Payment, please."

The Oracle isn't obligated to give an unambiguous answer. Besides, he might see that guy coming and put out a Test of the Jerk to keep him out.

[hamishspence]

He seems unable to avoid making predictions that might cause problems for himself:

"You will die of a heart attack right after I finish telling you you will die of a heart attack" and getting sued.

Or the one about the druid's cheating wife (expected to happen later) or Belkar for that matter.

[spargel]

The Oracle keeps him in the tower with no food (except the apple) and tells him how long until he starves.


How would this work at all? He wouldn't even be answering the question.


Or, he simply eats the apple himself and says "Never".

Great, self-fulfilling prophecies.

And then he comes back the next day with another apple and keeps this one away from the Oracle.


"As many as it takes. Payment, please."

The Oracle isn't obligated to give an unambiguous answer. Besides, he might see that guy coming and put out a Test of the Jerk to keep him out.

The question was "What number of minutes..." The answer should be a number.

I'm sure someone can come up with a way to word that question even better so it would be impossible for the Oracle to give an unambiguous answer.

Also, if he can see the guy coming and keep him out, wouldn't that be altering the future?

[Porthos]

Also, if he can see the guy coming and keep him out, wouldn't that be altering the future?

Not if he never was supposed to let him in in the first place. :smallsmile:

Just think of it as a Closed Time Loop and most of the problems go away.

[spargel]

Not if he never was supposed to let him in in the first place. :smallsmile:

Just think of it as a Closed Time Loop and most of the problems go away.

So what if the guy was an epic wizard that he had no way of avoiding?

[Porthos]

I'm sure someone can come up with a way to word that question even better so it would be impossible for the Oracle to give an unambiguous answer.

I forgot to comment on this bit.

All The Oracle has to do is point to a sign that says, "We Reserve The Right To Refuse Service to Anyone...

.... Especially Jerks Who Try To Screw With The Oracle By Posing Impossible To Answer Questions."

And then kick said interloper out. :smalltongue:


So what if the guy was an epic wizard that he had no way of avoiding?

See above. :smallsmile:

And if he dies, he dies. He then gets rezzed five minutes later without a care in the world.

Look, I can see that you have a huge philosophical problem with someone knowing the future absolutely. Which is fine. In RL I'd probably agree with you. But this is fiction, and a fiction where Rich is in absolute control over the rules.

So, again, what is so wrong with a fictional character knowing the future absolutely? Especially if he's snarky about it.

[spargel]

I forgot to comment on this bit.

All The Oracle has to do is point to a sign that says, "We Reserve The Right To Refuse Service to Anyone...

.... Especially Jerks Who Try To Screw With The Oracle By Posing Impossible To Answer Questions."

And then kick said interloper out. :smalltongue:


Uh huh...

So what if there was someone who had the same future seeing powers as the Oracle, but wasn't a jerk and wanted to try screwing his own prophecies over? All the new Oracle has to do is take an apple and try to see when he'll eat it.



See above. :smallsmile:

And if he dies, he dies. He then gets rezzed five minutes later without a care in the world.


So what if everyone who would resurrect him gets killed?



Look, I can see that you have a huge philosophical problem with someone knowing the future absolutely. Which is fine. In RL I'd probably agree with you. But this is fiction, and a fiction where Rich is in absolute control over the rules.

So, again, what is so wrong with a fictional character knowing the future absolutely? Especially if he's snarky about it.


Because it can cause huge paradoxal plot holes.

[ABB]

Everyone seems to think the oracle is a jerk, but I'm not so sure. He does go out of his way to try to keep roy from outsmarting himself, after all, and tries to get roy to ask the right question, but roy insists on being clever.

He answered most questions truthfully.

Maybe he's a jerk to jerks like belkar? If you're not a jerk, he treats you better.

As to affecting the future, the oracle did that when he caused the village of "lick my orange balls halfling" to be founded.

[Porthos]

Because it can cause huge paradoxal plot holes.

Just because something is paradoxical, doesn't mean it can't happen. Especially in a work of fiction.

For instance, I don't know if you watch Lost, but the creators of the show deliberately introduced a minor paradoxical element into the show last season.

Just where did the watch that Richard gave Locke come from?

They did this intentionally to introduce a sense of magic and uncertainty about the world into the plot. Well that and they wanted to screw around with people who take things a tad too literally. :smallwink:

As for your other objections, Rich as The Author, can make sure that they never come to pass. This isn't an Alternate World that exists somewhere in time and space. What happens in it is what Rich wants to have happen in it. Thus if he never wants The Oracle to be put into a Can't Prophicize Situation, then he won't put The Oracle in that situation.

It's right about now that we have to invoke the Bellisarios Maxim (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/BellisariosMaxim). If one insists on deconstructing a piece of work and saying "What If" to an illogical extreme then ANY piece of art is going to fall to pieces. Especially one that relies on magic.

The simple fact of the matter is that none of the extreme situations that you posit would come to pass. If only because said Oracles would foresee the attempts and plan countermeasures. And, by definition, the Oracle is better at future planning than anyone else, as long as he cares to look into the future about a subject.

As for competing Oracles, any sane Oracle is going to introduce a No Refunds For Jerkasses policy. If only because people coming in with Screw With The Oracle plans get real old, real fast. :smalltongue:

Now I will agree in the hands of an unskilled writer, having characters with perfect knowledge (even limited) of the future can be dangerous, or even disastrous. However in the hands of a skilled writer, they can be brilliant. So far there hasn't been a single plot hole in regards to The Oracle. And I see no reason why there should be one, as long as Rich remains on his game.

Let's face facts. Precognition, much like it's cousin Time Travel, is risky business for writers. It's also incredibly popular (both with fans and writers). So that means that there is a lot of incentive to doing Precognition/Time Travel stories. All we can hope for is that Rich manages to juggle all of the live grenades without dropping any of them.

[spargel]

Just because something is paradoxical, doesn't mean it can't happen. Especially in a work of fiction.

For instance, I don't know if you watch Lost, but the creators of the show deliberately introduced a minor paradoxical element into the show last season.

Just where did the watch that Richard gave Locke come from?

They did this intentionally to introduce a sense of magic and uncertainty about the world into the plot. Well that and they wanted to screw around with people who take things a tad too literally. :smallwink:

As for your other objections, Rich as The Author, can make sure that they never come to pass. This isn't an Alternate World that exists somewhere in time and space. What happens in it is what Rich wants to have happen in it. Thus if he never wants The Oracle to be put into a Can't Prophicize Situation, then he won't put The Oracle in that situation.

It's right about now that we have to invoke the Bellisarios Maxim (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/BellisariosMaxim). If one insists on deconstructing a piece of work and saying "What If" to an illogical extreme then ANY piece of art is going to fall to pieces. Especially one that relies on magic.

The simple fact of the matter is that none of the extreme situations that you posit would come to pass. If only because said Oracles would foresee the attempts and plan countermeasures. And, by definition, the Oracle is better at future planning than anyone else, as long as he cares to look into the future about a subject.


I agree, but this thread is about arguing whether or not the Oracle can change the future, which is kind of pointless because the comic doesn't make it clear, and real world philosophy says that it's impossible to see into the future like that.



As for competing Oracles, any sane Oracle is going to introduce a No Refunds For Jerkasses policy. If only because people coming in with Screw With The Oracle plans get real old, real fast. :smalltongue:


What if two Oracles who were trying to kill each other tried to see into the future and use it to try and kill each other?



Let's face facts. Precognition, much like it's cousin Time Travel, is risky business for writers. It's also incredibly popular (both with fans and writers). So that means that there is a lot of incentive to doing Precognition/Time Travel stories. All we can hope for is that Rich manages to juggle all of the live grenades without dropping any of them.


That's because Rich makes it incredibly funny. If the story was more serious, then the plot holes would get more criticism.

[Porthos]

and real world philosophy says that it's impossible to see into the future like that.

Some philosophy says that. Certainly not all.


What if two Oracles who were trying to kill each other tried to see into the future and use it to try and kill each other?

Either:

A) One would win, and one would lose. With them knowing their fates if they bothered to look them up.
B) Both would lose (or "win" since they kill each other).
or
C) They eventually find the idea preposterous and go out and from a franchise of Oracles "R" Us. :smalltongue:

A Mexican Standoff could certainly occur in this situation. Or one Oracle is incredibly disappointed to find out that he becomes the loser.

IF the future is a fixed timeline (which seems to be one of the central complaints here), then it is certainly possible for one to find out that they are fated to lose. Or win. Or franchise. :smalltongue:

[spargel]

Some philosophy says that. Certainly not all.

Then tell me what those other philosophies say about the apple problem.



Either:

A) One would win, and one would lose. With them knowing their fates if they bothered to look them up.
B) Both would lose (or "win" since they kill each other).
or
C) They eventually find the idea preposterous and go out and from a franchise of Oracles "R" Us. :smalltongue:

A Mexican Standoff could certainly occur in this situation. Or one Oracle is incredibly disappointed to find out that he becomes the loser.

IF the future is a fixed timeline (which seems to be one of the central complaints here), then it is certainly possible for one to find out that they are fated to lose. Or win. Or franchise. :smalltongue:

Oracle A looks into the future to see what kind of defenses Oracle B would prepare. Oracle B looks into the future to see what kind of attacks Oracle A would prepare. Oracle A sees Oracle B preparing defenses to counter his attacks, so he prepares new attacks to counter those new defenses. Oracle B sees those new attacks and prepares new defenses to counter the new attacks. This goes on forever until one of them runs out of ways to counter the other.

So then...

Oracle A looks into the future and sees that he'll win. Oracle B looks into the future and sees that he'll lose. This will cause Oracle B to avoid fighting Oracle A, changing the future.

[Bunnywolf]

Let's try to apply the trusty old School of Miko here:

1 - The Oracle's ability to predict is granted by Ms. Tiamat.
2 - Clearly, Ms Tiamat had to know about the familicide.
3 - Clearly, she either approved of it by doing nothing to prevent it, or her attempts were thwarted by the holy power of the Twelve Gods.
4 - Clearly, the Order of the Stick is evil and has to be smitten.

(Sorry, [4] was just included because it's the tradinional conclusion in the School of Miko.)

[HZ514]

The only possible resolution to a conflict between two precogs absolutely requires a linear timeline. As in, there is one future, one past, and each event is fixed. It's going to happen because it has happened like that and will always happen that way (Slaughterhouse Five stuff here). Each oracle could peek into the future, but they won't be able to change it, because that possibility would innately undermine the idea of being an oracle.

[TMC]

Then tell me what those other philosophies say about the apple problem.



Oracle A looks into the future to see what kind of defenses Oracle B would prepare. Oracle B looks into the future to see what kind of attacks Oracle A would prepare. Oracle A sees Oracle B preparing defenses to counter his attacks, so he prepares new attacks to counter those new defenses. Oracle B sees those new attacks and prepares new defenses to counter the new attacks. This goes on forever until one of them runs out of ways to counter the other.

So then...

Oracle A looks into the future and sees that he'll win. Oracle B looks into the future and sees that he'll lose. This will cause Oracle B to avoid fighting Oracle A, changing the future.

Read the Dune Series. You'll love it, I promise.

[spargel]

The only possible resolution to a conflict between two precogs absolutely requires a linear timeline. As in, there is one future, one past, and each event is fixed. It's going to happen because it has happened like that and will always happen that way (Slaughterhouse Five stuff here). Each oracle could peek into the future, but they won't be able to change it, because that possibility would innately undermine the idea of being an oracle.

Yeah, I'm pretty much arguing that unless some kind of divine force compels the Oracles to continue doing whatever they were going to do even if they looked into the future, the ability is going to create paradoxes.


Read the Dune Series. You'll love it, I promise.

I'll check it out.

[abishur]

The way I see it, there are a couple of possibilities:

1. He did know. This leads to the following
a) He couldn't prevent it. Perhaps the dragons were destined to die even without Familicide. Thus he didn't warn Mama.


If I were to believe that the oracle did see it coming, I'd have to agree with this assessment. After all, the guy can see his own death coming, but fails to stop it.

However, I don't believe he saw it coming. We've seen evidence that he does not, in fact, know everything. He just knows the things that Tiamat chooses to reveal to him. (I always seem to get interrupted during bath time (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0329.html)). Moreover, in Tiamat seemed pissed in the last panel as if she/he/it didn't know what was about to happen.

Based on this, I get the feeling that the fiends doing were outside the normal realm of prediction. That is to say, no one could see it coming until it happened.

[Porthos]

This will cause Oracle B to avoid fighting Oracle A, changing the future.

Not if a Rule of The Universe states flat out that you can't change the future, if you have foreseen it. In that case, Oracle B will trudge off to his destiny, pissed off all the while since he knows he's going to lose (ironically enuf, it's probably his sullen defeatist attitude that will lead him to lose - the cosmos has an ironic sense of humor after all).

You know this is the whole Dune Conundrum when it comes right down to it. It was one of the reasons that the Bene Gesserits didn't look into the future absolutely. Because they didn't want to be chained to that future absolutely.

The way I see it, you have a Fundamental Maxim in these arguments that someone can change the future. And if you ever write a piece of art, then you can say (or have your characters say) Screw Destiny (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ScrewDestiny) to your hearts content. But it is entirely possible to write an internally self consistent inherently logical universe where Absolute Precognition reigns. In those cases, said precogs would see themselves acting all sullen and morose as they march off to their destiny.

If done right, it can be quite horrific, really.

Or perhaps they see themselves planning all of their countermoves only to die by a random chance of fate. But since they know that they'll enjoy the X number of years until that random chance of fate, they'll do it anyway.

Really, just about the only thing that is lost to an All Knowing Precog is the sense of surprise. And even that can be introduced once you allow for the idea that one doesn't look up all aspects of ones future. It could lead to a sense of despair. But it also might lead to a sense of stocism. Or, if one knows that one will be incredibly crafty and smart in the future, it can lead to a tremendous sense of self-satisfaction and smugness.

Like a certain Oracle that has been portrayed in the comic. After all, if you keep looking into the future, and you keep seeing yourself succeed, why wouldn't you be happy all of the time? Even if you knew you would have the occasional bump in the road.

Now if one doesn't believe that a fixed-timeline is ever possible*, then all of this falls apart. On the other hand we have great works of art that explore the ramifications of these notions (like Slaughterhouse Five for instance). I suppose it just comes down to YMMV when all is said and done. And it also comes down to the fact about whether or not characters have a (near) religious belief in Accepting Fate. If they do, then each and every argument about self-preservation melts away. After all, if Fate says something is going to happen, then it's going to happen. No sense in fighting it.

Is that a fairly alien mindset for a lot of people? Yep. But not so alien that it isn't a hallmark of lots of religions, works of art, and personal viewpoints. :smallwink:

Anyway with this, I think I have said just about all I can on this small part of the subject without drifting too heavily into RL Religion and Politics (well, after my Spoilered Note below, I guess :smalltongue:). So I will have to let these words be my final thoughts on this side part of the discussion. Besides, I really hate repeating myself, and I fear I'm about the reach that stage. :smalltongue:

Cheers.

* NOTE ABOUT FIXED TIMELINES (spoilered for brevity):

The idea of a fixed timeline is actually not that far out there. And, in fact, probably has a fair weight of science behind it. So how can one have Free Will and a Fixed Time Line? Well, pretty simple really. All the idea of a Fixed Timeline really says is that people will choose to do certain things when all is said and done.

Let's give a for instance. We, sitting here in the year 2009 know what happened (more or less) in the year 1609. We know which nations went to war, which famous people married other famous people. And we know what Famous Natural Disasters happened. To us, here in 2009, it's fixed in amber. Yet in 1609, it was all Free Will. They were going along their lives making decisions that would affect the world.

So far, that's all pretty basic. Now let's consider someone sitting in front of a computer (or whatever) in the year 2409. They will know everything that happened (more or less) in this year. They will know which famous people married other famous people, and yadda yadda. So does the fact that there is someone in the future that knows that happened in their past (i.e. our present) negate the idea of Free Will?

I would say no. Because we are constantly making our decisions right here, right now. And the fact that someone trillions of years in the future knows Everything That Happened doesn't negate that fact that we all had Free Will to get there.

To draw an analogy, suppose I'm going to flip a coin five times. It is certain that the coin will go Heads-Tails in some pattern, even if I don't know what it is. But some observer from the future would know what those coin flips would be. Because it is in his "past"

So how does all tie back to Precogs? Simple. A Precog will travel up and down the Fixed Timeline and see his actions, good and bad. He is not so much powerless to stop them, as he is armed with knowledge of what is going to happen. And Knowledge is a VERY powerful weapon. As long as the Precog is careful enuf never to really look too deeply into his future (i.e. to see the moment of his irrevocable demise) then he should have a relatively happy life.

He still has Free Will, because he is choosing his actions as he does them. It's just in this case, he knows the results of his actions ahead of time, for good or for ill. And since he knows the future, logically speaking, more often than not his choices should be good ones. For instance, if I knew with absolute certainty who would win the super bowl in 2012, I should also conclude that my actions in the intervening four years should reflect that knowledge. They would still be made with Free Will, but they would also be made with Knowledge. It's the exact same principle as knowing what the five flips of the coin are going to be. But in this case I should see that I wouldn't follow some teams very closely, but I would follow others.

And maybe I would see that I made a small bet or two along the way. And I wouldn't do it because I foresaw that I did. I did it because who wouldn't make a couple of small bets (or or other similar actions) if you knew what was going to happen. So think of the Precog as someone who can travel to the metaphorical 2409 and see what happened. The side affect is that you're chained to the future, yes. But as long as you see that you (mostly) made good decisions, then, quite frankly, who cares?

It's only when you get too deeply into the navel-gazing angsty side of the equation that stuff really starts to break down. :smallwink:

Now the precog might not be able to control the Random Acts of Fate (or Other People). But he should know that he made the right choices to influence the events that he could.

I tend to think of it as not so much Changing The Future as it is Playing With A Stacked Deck of Marked Cards. After all, it's not hard at all to win a game when you know what cards are coming. :smallwink:

ETA: I see that people brought up both Slaughterhouse Five and Dune while I was composing my extra long post. Ironic that. :smallbiggrin:

[Querzis]

:smallsigh:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0572.html

«the kobold didnt bother to look in the future to make sure». Why is it so hard to understand that there is a huge difference between being omniscient and seeing the future? The Oracle can see the future if he concentrate but that doesnt mean he automatically know the future of everyone on the planet. He seems to know his future perfectly (or at least, he know when someone will kill him) but since hes so self-centered thats perfectly understandable. He already knew that mama dragon was powerfull and he knew about V who was around level 13 so from its point of view, it was obvious the dragon would win. No need to see in the future for that!

As for the «Tiamat knew» I would like to point out that, just like its possible for a cleric to somehow become stronger then the god he serve and do things the god cant do, its not because Tiamat can give the power to see the future to one of her follower that she can see the future herself. But yeah maybe she knew but I think we'll see about that in the next strip anyway.

[warrl]

Theory:

1) The future is not fixed until it is divined

2) Then it's fixed only to the extent that it can't violate the divination results

3) Every character that is capable of divination creates a cone of uncertainty spreading into the realm of possible futures, its intensity depending on how precise his divinations are likely to be and how many possibilities there are at each point. Divination in the high-uncertainty areas is increasingly difficult.

4) Where these cones overlap, it gets exponentially difficult.

Thus, if two Oracles directly and lethally opposed each other, both would find it difficult to impossible to predict their own lives more than five minutes in the future.

I heard about this prediction that was once made: "Attack King Whatsisname and an empire will fall." Turned out to be perfectly true. The king that the prediction was offered to, assumed that it was King Whatsisname's empire that would fall, but the guy offering the prediction never got that specific...

[Porthos]

I heard about this prediction that was once made: "Attack King Whatsisname and an empire will fall." Turned out to be perfectly true. The king that the prediction was offered to, assumed that it was King Whatsisname's empire that would fall, but the guy offering the prediction never got that specific...

That would be one of the more famous predictions attributed to The Oracle of Delphi:

"If you attack the Persians, you will destroy a mighty empire." This was said to King Croesus who was wondering if he should attack Persia or not.

More fool he, he did. :smallwink:

There's another good one related to Croesus and the attack of Persia as well (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famous_Oracular_Statements_from_Delphi):


Croesus paid a high fee to the Delphians and then sent to the oracle asking "Would his monarchy last long?" The Pythia answered:

"Whenever a mule shall become sovereign king of the Medians, then, Lydian Delicate-Foot, flee by the stone-strewn Hermus, flee, and think not to stand fast, nor shame to be chicken-hearted.[5]"

Croesus thought it impossible that a mule should be king of the Medes and thus believed that he and his issue would never be out of power. He thus decided to make common cause with certain Greek city states and attack Persia.[5]

However, it was he, not the Persians, who was defeated, fulfilling the prophecy but not his interpretation of it. He apparently forgot that Cyrus, the victor, was half Mede (by his mother), half Persian (by his father) and therefore could be considered a mule.[6]

Twisty tricky bunch these Oracles. :smalltongue:

[Gamerlord]

Nor can we really assume an evil goddess is going to be all that upset about something evil happening to the dragons.

Actually she might be VERY unhappy her power just got heavily diminished, Remember Banjo's first appearance? Gods gain power from their number of worshipers, and she just lost a whole truckload of followers and that translates into lost power.

[rewinn]

Actually she might be VERY unhappy her power just got heavily diminished, Remember Banjo's first appearance? Gods gain power from their number of worshipers, and she just lost a whole truckload of followers and that translates into lost power.
Yes, Tiamat's obvious rage in her call to the IFCC suggests she in fact did NOT forsee the Familicide.

Just because the Oracle's powers come from Tiamat, it doesn't mean Tiamat knows the entire future. Tiamat is the Oracle's boss and handed him a telescope; that doesn't mean Tiamat has looked herself through the telescope.

[PonceAlyosha]

Tiamat will get one of the demon's minutes. Xykon will be defeated and V will be compelled to act as the Arcane caster for the ritual. Tiamat and the Dark One will control the Snarl, and hell will rain down upon all.

Further, the IFCC wanted V to kill the dragon. That's why Sabine told them about the starmetal cave. They've researched this sort of thing before, anyway, but they don't really have any cause to at that part in the story.

It'd be cool.

[Porthos]

Further, the IFCC wanted V to kill the dragon. That's why Sabine told them about the starmetal cave.

:smallconfused: :smallconfused: :smallconfused:

Sabine (and by extension the IFCC) knew nothing about the Gates until the LG got to Azure City. (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0380.html)

Plus, Sabine openly worried that the starmetal would make the OotS stronger (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0142.html), which would be odd if it was her (or her bosses) idea. Strip #142 pretty much flat out says that the starmetal quest was Nale's idea.

So while this would be a nice tie up of events, I'm afraid it didn't happen that way. :smallwink:

[PonceAlyosha]

:smallconfused: :smallconfused: :smallconfused:

Sabine (and by extension the IFCC) knew nothing about the Gates until the LG got to Azure City. (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0380.html)

Plus, Sabine openly worried that the starmetal would make the OotS stronger (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0142.html), which would be odd if it was her (or her bosses) idea. Strip #142 pretty much flat out says that the starmetal quest was Nale's idea.

So while this would be a nice tie up of events, I'm afraid it didn't happen that way. :smallwink:

Hence the the sentence the immediately followed, but I think Tiamat is destined for a bigger role in all this. Dungeons and Dragons after all, and also the fact that she's really the only core deity in this setting.

[Rotipher]

Yes, Tiamat's obvious rage in her call to the IFCC suggests she in fact did NOT forsee the Familicide.

Likely, but still not definitely the case. She could've previously foreseen the deaths of the black dragons, but been powerless to alter the future once it was foretold. In which case, she's been forced to wait until now to chew out the IFCC for the event, and has had months of frustration in which to really get her mad on.

Either way, first blast of outrage or smouldering time-bomb, it's probably not gonna be pretty when the Fiends finally take that call. (I wonder which of the IFCC will be the lucky one, and only have to listen to her screaming in one ear? :smallwink:)