Oracle conspiracy theory

[Kelvin360]

I have been wondering for a while....did the oracle use a means of dispelling roy that he knew would let him keep his memory because he -knew- that Roy needed to tell the rest of the party that he wasnt really dead so They could visit the oracle again? or was it an accident? i think personally that it wasnt an accident because the oracle could have just as easily bought a scroll or wand of teleport spirit or something.....

[Assassin89]

I have been wondering for a while....did the oracle use a means of dispelling roy that he knew would let him keep his memory because he -knew- that Roy needed to tell the rest of the party that he wasnt really dead so They could visit the oracle again? or was it an accident? i think personally that it wasnt an accident because the oracle could have just as easily bought a scroll or wand of teleport spirit or something.....

Why should the Oracle worry about a fighter who will succeed in his quest to stop the end of the world, when there is something more important to focus on, like that druid who will kill him in the future, another chromatic dragon, another set of hopeless individuals, money, his ego, or a marut death squad.

Also I doubt there is such a thing as teleport spirit, especially since the Oracle does not know anyone with the sourcebook.

[Kelvin360]

Marut death what? I -really- need to get the books....

[Sewblon]

This is the same character who went through all the trouble of founding a town to activate Belkar's Mark of Justice when as far as we know he could have left his house before he showed up(sorry I keep mentioning that but it really bugs me). I don't think he runs purely on logic.

[Kish]

Marut death what? I -really- need to get the books....
There is no indication of any such looking for the Oracle in any of the books. It's just Assassin89's, ah, hopes. (See his sig for details.)

[DBJack]

This is the same character who went through all the trouble of founding a town to activate Belkar's Mark of Justice when as far as we know he could have left his house before he showed up(sorry I keep mentioning that but it really bugs me). I don't think he runs purely on logic.

The Oracle can see into the future that he is going to be killed by Belkar. It's like Dr. Manhattan in The Watchmen. He's just a puppet who can see the strings. And even if he's going to die, he can still get revenge on Belkar with the means at hand

[Sewblon]

The Oracle can see into the future that he is going to be killed by Belkar. It's like Dr. Manhattan in The Watchmen. He's just a puppet who can see the strings. And even if he's going to die, he can still get revenge on Belkar with the means at hand

Dr.Manhattan didn't just see the future, he saw all of time simultaneously because he was a quantum intelligence, The Oracle is not a quantum intelligence. Doesn't The Oracle founding Lick My Orange Balls Halfling, having the resurrection squad show up at exactly the right moment, and having that wand ready to dismiss Roy pretty much confirm that he can influence his own future voluntarily?

[Kish]

Yes, but he can't make his own predictions false. That would be a paradox.

[Sewblon]

Yes, but he can't make his own predictions false. That would be a paradox.

Couldn't he have lied to Belkar by saying something like "You get to kill the elf the next time you see him/her." And retroactively assumed that his prediction was fulfilled in one of those circuitous theories instead of saying the theories directly to Belkar? This might be reaching, but someone who is dreading an eminent painful death would try pretty much anything they can think of to avoid it. And I don't know of any reason why The Oracle can't lie when not prophesying.

[martinkou]

Couldn't he have lied to Belkar by saying something like "You get to kill the elf the next time you see him/her." And retroactively assumed that his prediction was fulfilled in one of those circuitous theories instead of saying the theories directly to Belkar? This might be reaching, but someone who is dreading an eminent painful death would try pretty much anything they can think of to avoid it. And I don't know of any reason why The Oracle can't lie when not prophesying.

Maybe, because he's somehow obliged to do it? Gift to dragon-kind from Tiamat and all that.

There's still something quite contradictory though. The Oracle (or Tiamat?) installed QuestGuard in Sunken Valley to filter out stupid random adventurers and people who'd end up suing him for millions (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0330.html). Yet, he's somehow obliged to accept customers who'd kill him after they heard the truth?

[NerfTW]

Maybe he just wanted to set off the mark to piss off Belkar?


Remember, as has been pointed out repeatedly in the strip, death is just a minor speedbump. Especially when he knows when it will happen and can make arrangements to be raised as soon as possible. The Oracle doesn't care if he gets killed in the act of ticking someone off, because he knows he can just raise himself afterwards. (He's filthy rich, remember)

Honestly, if you were a jerk and knew you wouldn't stay dead and could heal any wound, wouldn't you get your kicks provoking people?

And as for the suing him, that's a lot more dangerous than being killed. He can't pay to have himself raised if he has no money.

[Sewblon]

Maybe he just wanted to set off the mark to piss off Belkar?


Remember, as has been pointed out repeatedly in the strip, death is just a minor speedbump. Especially when he knows when it will happen and can make arrangements to be raised as soon as possible. The Oracle doesn't care if he gets killed in the act of ticking someone off, because he knows he can just raise himself afterwards. (He's filthy rich, remember)

Honestly, if you were a jerk and knew you wouldn't stay dead and could heal any wound, wouldn't you get your kicks provoking people?

And as for the suing him, that's a lot more dangerous than being killed. He can't pay to have himself raised if he has no money.

How would anyone sue him if they didn't remember anything? QuestGuard said that The Oracle is for entertainment purposes http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0324.html , which makes suing him kind of complicated memory loss not withstanding. And having to keep earning back expert levels must be a pain.

[Raging Gene Ray]

Marut death what? I -really- need to get the books....

Maruts are beings of pure law from the Lawful Neutral plane Mechanus. They look like humanoid robots and exist solely to enforce the natural law that everyone must eventually die...by killing anyone who lingers on the Material Plane too long.

Back to the OP's question, I think the Oracle just wanted to Dismiss Roy. He obviously doesn't care about whether they'll come back or not and certainly doesn't care if they succeed on their quest.

[derfenrirwolv]

The oracle, who has a 100% batting average so far, said that Roy would forget when he passed through the memory charm again. I think that means that at some point Roy is going to go to see the oracle, and forget everything that happened there while he was a ghost (of course, the rest of the party has most of the pertinent information already)

[warrl]

There's still something quite contradictory though. The Oracle (or Tiamat?) installed QuestGuard in Sunken Valley to filter out stupid random adventurers and people who'd end up suing him for millions (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0330.html). Yet, he's somehow obliged to accept customers who'd kill him after they heard the truth?

Being killed is less painful than dealing with lawyers?

And resurrection is less expensive?

[factotum]

This is the same character who went through all the trouble of founding a town to activate Belkar's Mark of Justice when as far as we know he could have left his house before he showed up(sorry I keep mentioning that but it really bugs me). I don't think he runs purely on logic.

We have to assume that the Oracle knows that what he foresees in a trance MUST come to pass, and that if it doesn't, Bad Things (tm) will happen. At the very least he might lose his powers if he directly tries to make a prophecy not come true, and it seems the Oracle is a guy who'd rather take the few seconds of pain followed by a resurrection by the Lizard Twins than become just an ordinary kobold. After all, the guy has to have power among his own people to have been able to produce that village in such a short time, quite apart from his supernatural abilities!

[Optimystik]

Occam's Razor - the Oracle simply wasn't thinking ahead when he banished Roy. He is not omniscient after all. (e.g. he always gets interrupted during bathtime, Roy and Durkon could dangle him from a window, etc.)

[hamishspence]

Being killed is less painful than dealing with lawyers?

And resurrection is less expensive?

Paying for resurrection (true or standard) costs thousands of gold pieces, rather than millions, in D&D.

[Yuki Akuma]

Paying for resurrection (true or standard) costs thousands of gold pieces, rather than millions, in D&D.

He agrees with you. Those sentences meant "Because being killed is less painful than dealing with lawyers" and "Resurrection is less expensive". he was responding to a post asking why he'd accept customers who he knew would kill him, but would protect his scaly orange ass from getting sued.

[hamishspence]

good point- the statements phrased in a questioning fashion sounded like scepticism when I read them:

"being killed is less painful?"

"resurrection is less expensive?"

But if they are answers, phrased as questions, that clarifies it- sometimes it can be difficult to spot.

[NerfTW]

What I meant by my post was that he doesn't care about the immediate pain from death, since he KNOWS he will be raised immediately. He has no reason to avoid death if he can get the last laugh in the process.

I think the lawyer joke was just there as a gag, but thinking about it will tell you that being sued for millions is way worse than paying 10,000 gold for a rez.

[veti]

The oracle, who has a 100% batting average so far, said that Roy would forget when he passed through the memory charm again. I think that means that at some point Roy is going to go to see the oracle, and forget everything that happened there while he was a ghost (of course, the rest of the party has most of the pertinent information already)

The Oracle only has a 100% batting average if you assume that he has one. Elan's happy ending? Durkon's homecoming? Belkar's death? Xykon's coming to Girard's gate? We assume all these things have yet to be fulfilled, but it could be they're just plain wrong.

I count twelve predictions/answers that we know of:

Xykon is in his throne room - true, but so vague as to be meaningless.
Xykon is in the Dungeon of Dorukan - true.
Xykon will be at Girard's Gate next - not fulfilled yet.
Belkar will cause the death of at least one of the above - true, again on a technicality. (If you're prepared to stretch logic as far as the Oracle did in justifying that one, I think you could make a case that I caused at least one of those deaths, by being a reader.)
Vaarsuvius and All The Wrong Reasons - true.
Haley and the gift horse - true.
Elan will have a happy ending - could be true on a technicality, but by the popular reading it hasn't been fulfilled yet.
Durkon will return home posthumously - not fulfilled yet.
Belkar will die (or whatever) - not fulfilled yet.
"Try gingko bilboa" - well, we don't know what the question was, but that's not a prophecy anyway, it's a suggestion. "Try"? Seriously, if that's the sort of advice you want, you can get it from any quack healer, you don't need to pay for divinely inspired Truth.
Roy will "forget everything else once you pass through the memory charm" - wrong.
Vaarsuvius killed the young black dragon - true.


So let's not torture logic to make the Oracle seem more "infallible" than he is.

[Kish]

You left out, "The sorcerer who killed your master goes by Xykon," from OtOoPCs.

And I'd love to hear how the Oracle being stabbed by Belkar is Belkar causing the Oracle's death "on a technicality." Or how you could possibly be argued to influence the deaths of any of them by reading a comic written by someone who doesn't change his plots for any of his readers. Are you suggesting that the comic wouldn't still be going if it wasn't for one particular reader?

[Zevox]

Not to mention that Rich all but outright said in one of the commentaries to War and XPs that yes, the Oracle is infallible. To quote him:

The sequence ends with Nale's message to Roy, which kicks off the next plot arc but also serves to immediately reinforce the fact that the Oracle's prophecies are For Real. In his casual conversation, he had noted that Roy and Elan were "running late for a pair of family reunions," referring to Nale's imminent plot to capture Elan by kidnapping Roy's sister.
Hell, that entire section of commentary is pretty much devoted to explaining how he is using the Oracle as a deliberately obvious foreshadowing device, both for near-future and far-future events.

Zevox

[veti]

You left out, "The sorcerer who killed your master goes by Xykon," from OtOoPCs.

And I'd love to hear how the Oracle being stabbed by Belkar is Belkar causing the Oracle's death "on a technicality." Or how you could possibly be argued to influence the deaths of any of them by reading a comic written by someone who doesn't change his plots for any of his readers. Are you suggesting that the comic wouldn't still be going if it wasn't for one particular reader?

The comic wouldn't still be going if it weren't for the body of readers. I am responsible for my own decision to be a part of that body...

No, of course that's not a good explanation, but nor were the Oracle's own explanations for how Belkar had "caused the deaths" of Roy and Windstriker.

Okay, if we add in the OtOoPCs one, we have 13 statements, of which:

6 correct
1 incorrect
2 meaningless
4 pending


I'd say that gives him a batting average somewhere between 46% and 85%.

(Edit: or, looking at it another way, the current average is about 67%.)

I'm not trying to rubbish the Oracle - even at the lower end of the scale, he's doing a lot better than my predictions - but the "100%" figure is just plain false.

[Barlen]

4. Belkar will cause the death of at least one of the above - true, again on a technicality. (If you're prepared to stretch logic as far as the Oracle did in justifying that one, I think you could make a case that I caused at least one of those deaths, by being a reader.)

Belkar killed the Oracle and that was on his list when he asked. No technicality needed here, its just true. The oracle may have been trying to wiggle out of it to avoid getting killed but that never works.


11. Roy will "forget everything else once you pass through the memory charm" - wrong.

I don't remember this being done as a prediction per se. The oracle stated it but not during that oracle trance he goes into when he makes his prophecies.

[Zevox]

None of the Oracle's prophecies thus far have been incorrect. Where on earth did you get that notion?

Zevox

[Shale]

And Roy immediately said that the Oracle "didn't bother looking into the future" when he said that. He was just assuming that the charm would do its job.

Also, veti, you seem to be forgetting that Belkar asked if he would kill Miko, Windstriker, Roy, Vaarsuvius or the Oracle.

[veti]

None of the Oracle's prophecies thus far have been incorrect. Where on earth did you get that notion?

If you read up the thread a bit, you'll see the answer to that. The original post, and the post I was responding to initially, are based on the theory that everything the Oracle says is infallible.

You can say "Roy's memory thing wasn't a prophecy, just a prediction". Yes, but that means the Oracle is fallible when he's not speaking in green, which is all I was arguing for in the first place.

As for Belkar killing him, we could argue all night about that one, but I'm just going to say this once:

The Oracle tried to argue that that prophecy had already been fulfilled, in various far-fetched ways, so that Belkar wouldn't kill him
If the Oracle knew that Belkar was going to kill him anyway and he couldn't get out of it, then why exactly did he bother with all those other justifications?
If the Oracle deliberately provoked Belkar to kill him, should that still be counted as "successful prophecy"?


Anyway, I've counted that one as "fulfilled". It still leaves our little orange friend with two strikes: "In his throne room" and "Try gingko bilboa". These are not the sort of oracular wisdom that people pay that sort of gold to hear.

[Kish]

Anyway, I've counted that one as "fulfilled". It still leaves our little orange friend with two strikes: "In his throne room" and "Try gingko bilboa". These are not the sort of oracular wisdom that people pay that sort of gold to hear.
That's those people's problem. They're not "strikes" unless you can say they're wrong.

(For that matter, you're taking more than is given in assuming that Blackwing didn't get exactly the answer he was looking for. A joke? Certainly. That Vaarsuvius' class feature actually asked a question at all is a joke. That doesn't make the answer wrong, or meaningless to Blackwing.)

[Shale]

If the Oracle knew that Belkar was going to kill him anyway and he couldn't get out of it, then why exactly did he bother with all those other justifications?

Because dying hurts.


If the Oracle deliberately provoked Belkar to kill him, should that still be counted as "successful prophecy"?

Given that he predicted it ahead of time, in enough detail to have clerics contracted to arrive minutes after Haley, Belkar and Celia left? Yes, I'd say so.

[Zevox]

If you read up the thread a bit, you'll see the answer to that. The original post, and the post I was responding to initially, are based on the theory that everything the Oracle says is infallible.

You can say "Roy's memory thing wasn't a prophecy, just a prediction". Yes, but that means the Oracle is fallible when he's not speaking in green, which is all I was arguing for in the first place.
Except that that whole matter is easily explained by Roy's guess that he simply didn't bother to look into the future to confirm that banishing Roy would actually qualify as him "passing through the memory charm." Not to mention there's also the other miscellaneous fan theories which argue he knew full well Roy wouldn't lose his memory but wanted Roy to remember everything from their encounter anyway.


If the Oracle knew that Belkar was going to kill him anyway and he couldn't get out of it, then why exactly did he bother with all those other justifications?

Worth a shot tho...


Anyway, I've counted that one as "fulfilled". It still leaves our little orange friend with two strikes: "In his throne room" and "Try gingko bilboa". These are not the sort of oracular wisdom that people pay that sort of gold to hear.
So what? He's a snarky little bastard who likes giving out useless information - note that, other than Roy's, pretty much none of his responses to the others' questions were anywhere near descriptive enough for them to be useful either, they're simply good for foreshadowing for us. How on earth could those count as "strikes against him" when one is clearly correct, merely useless, and the other is a mere joke?

Zevox

[veti]

That's those people's problem. They're not "strikes" unless you can say they're wrong.

No, it's the Oracle's problem - if his customers are so dissatisfied that they end up dangling him out of a window, or stabbing him. It'll also be his problem, in the long run, if he gets a reputation for dispensing wisdom that's not worth the electrons needed to display it on an LCD screen, because reputation is everything in his business.

[FujinAkari]

As for Belkar killing him, we could argue all night about that one, but I'm just going to say this once:
[LIST]
The Oracle tried to argue that that prophecy had already been fulfilled, in various far-fetched ways, so that Belkar wouldn't kill him
If the Oracle knew that Belkar was going to kill him anyway and he couldn't get out of it, then why exactly did he bother with all those other justifications?

Because he doesn't want to get stabbed? Even if he had foreseen his own death, that doesn't mean he has to accept it and go quietly along.


Anyway, I've counted that one as "fulfilled". It still leaves our little orange friend with two strikes: "In his throne room" and "Try gingko bilboa". These are not the sort of oracular wisdom that people pay that sort of gold to hear.

How are those strikes? They are entirely accurate. If people ask imprecise questions that is hardly the oracle's fault.

[veti]

Except that that whole matter is easily explained by Roy's guess that he simply didn't bother to look into the future to confirm that banishing Roy would actually qualify as him "passing through the memory charm." Not to mention there's also the other miscellaneous fan theories which argue he knew full well Roy wouldn't lose his memory but wanted Roy to remember everything from their encounter anyway.

Which brings us full circle. Now you're arguing that the little runt may be infallible all the time, and I'm still saying he's not. We're done here.


How on earth could those count as "strikes against him" when one is clearly correct, merely useless, and the other is a mere joke?

"Mere joke" adds a whole new dimension of silliness to the "infallible Oracle" theory. "Infallible except when he doesn't bother to check, or when he's joking" - yeah, that's a slogan to sell tickets.

[derfenrirwolv]

Roys questions have been useful. Roys question was initialy useless based on his own doing, and the oracle even tried to talk him out of it.

Haley took the oracles advice and got her speech back because of it

Durkon got the peace of mind that he would be returning home

Elan got the peace of mind that the ending would be happy.. the oracle even added "for you at least" when he didn't have to.

V got an answer that came true.

We don't know if Blackwing was slipping v memory enhancing ginko biloba or not

Belkar got the one word technically true reply.. because the oracle doesn't like him.

[Mystic Muse]

reputation is everything in his business.

Reputation is irrelevant when you forget everything except your answer when you leave.

you can't discount answers just because they aren't very descriptive.

[Zevox]

No, it's the Oracle's problem - if his customers are so dissatisfied that they end up dangling him out of a window, or stabbing him. It'll also be his problem, in the long run, if he gets a reputation for dispensing wisdom that's not worth the electrons needed to display it on an LCD screen, because reputation is everything in his business.
...and what on earth does the Oracle's "business" have to do with anything? His purpose in the story is to foreshadow, not run a business.


Which brings us full circle. Now you're arguing that the little runt may be infallible all the time, and I'm still saying he's not. We're done here.
I was always arguing that - didn't you notice? Hell, my first post in this thread was quoting from Rich's commentary on the Oracle to show just that.


"Mere joke" adds a whole new dimension of silliness to the "infallible Oracle" theory. "Infallible except when he doesn't bother to check, or when he's joking" - yeah, that's a slogan to sell tickets.
And where on earth are you getting the notion that because his answer to Blackwing was part of a joke (which was the whole purpose of Blackwing asking a question - a joke for us readers), it wasn't completely correct?

Zevox

[veti]

Reputation is irrelevant when you forget everything except your answer when you leave.

you can't discount answers just because they aren't very descriptive.

No, customer service is irrelevant, that's why the Oracle gets to be as rude as he likes to his visitors. But people do remember the answers, and if what they remember about them - and tell other people about them - is that they're useless, then people will eventually stop coming.

[Mystic Muse]

No, customer service is irrelevant, that's why the Oracle gets to be as rude as he likes to his visitors. But people do remember the answers, and if what they remember about them - and tell other people about them - is that they're useless, then people will eventually stop coming.

And then he'll be happy because he doesn't like people coming anyway. He's only nice to true dragons and dragonoids from what I can tell and he does give them what they need.

[Kish]

It'll also be his problem, in the long run, if he gets a reputation for dispensing wisdom that's not worth the electrons needed to display it on an LCD screen, because reputation is everything in his business.
"Customer service is based on the assumption of WANTING people to return."

The Oracle has, as far as we've seen, an exclusive monopoly on something priceless. He doesn't seem to need to compete with other Oracles. His Charisma penalty may one day get him in more trouble than his foreseeing can prepare him for...but I wouldn't bet that way.

[veti]

...and what on earth does the Oracle's "business" have to do with anything? His purpose in the story is to foreshadow, not run a business.

I'm taking the comic as portraying an interesting and textured world in which people have their own lives and purposes beyond simply bit-players in someone else's story. If you want to reduce it to that level, that's fine for you, but doesn't it make the whole saving-the-world thing seem kinda pointless?


I was always arguing that - didn't you notice? Hell, my first post in this thread was quoting from Rich's commentary on the Oracle to show just that.

Ambiguous referent - what is the "that" that you were always arguing? I've looked back at your original post, and I honestly can't tell whether you believe that the Oracle is correct when he says that Roy will forget everything. The Giant's quote doesn't seem to address the question, even indirectly.

The Giant says that the Oracle is "for real". That in no way proves that he's infallible, even when he's talking in green. Maybe the Giant is only setting up that appearance of correctness in order to subvert it. Maybe he has a point to make about free will and believing in quacks. I don't know, and neither do you.


And where on earth are you getting the notion that because his answer to Blackwing was part of a joke (which was the whole purpose of Blackwing asking a question - a joke for us readers), it wasn't completely correct?

Can you frame a plausible question to which "Try ginko bilboa" is a perfectly truthful answer, as opposed to just a possibly-helpful suggestion? Okay, so my lack of interrogative imagination is not proof, but it's strong enough evidence for me and I'm calling it.

[Shale]

"What is the best way for me to solve [problem that can be best solved with ginkgo bilboa]?"

[dps]

I have been wondering for a while....did the oracle use a means of dispelling roy that he knew would let him keep his memory because he -knew- that Roy needed to tell the rest of the party that he wasnt really dead so They could visit the oracle again? or was it an accident? i think personally that it wasnt an accident because the oracle could have just as easily bought a scroll or wand of teleport spirit or something.....

The Oracle doesn't need Roy to tell the party that he's not dead for good, because the party only knows the Oracle was dead in the first place because Roy told Haley after he was rezzed.

Also, I don't think Roy passed through the memory charm went the Oracle sent him back to the celestial plane. Roy just instantly shifted position from one place to another without actually passing through any location in between. I'd say that's the same reason that the lizardfolk can remember their appointments to raise the Oracle--they teleport in and out, so they don't pass through the memory charm.

Whether or not the Oracle did that deliberately so that Roy would remember isn't clear--he could have just screwed up. But if it was deliberate, it certainly wasn't so that Roy could tell the party that the Oracle wasn't dead.

[martinkou]

Actually... why doesn't anyone write things down in ye olde pen and paper while visiting Oracle. The kobold didn't say it's not allowed, and you don't have to do it overtly.

[Mystic Muse]

because nobody knows about the memory charm.

[Durgok]

Can you frame a plausible question to which "Try ginko bilboa" is a perfectly truthful answer, as opposed to just a possibly-helpful suggestion? Okay, so my lack of interrogative imagination is not proof, but it's strong enough evidence for me and I'm calling it.

I created an account just to address this.

"What can I do to make sure V doesn't forget about me again?"

"Try Ginko bilboa."

It is a perfectly valid answer, especially since Ginkgo Bilboa is medicinally used to prevent the onset of Alzheimer's.

[Degnared]

Along the same lines as knowing Belkar would kill him, another mind bender is that the Oracle might have known that Roy and Durkon wouldn't be satisfied with "in his throne room," and were going to dangle him out the window for another question. The Oracle reminds me of another Oracle...


The great and powerful Oracle. We meet at last. I suppose you've been expecting me, right? The all-knowing Oracle is never surprised. How can she be, she knows everything. But If that's true, then why is she here? If she knew I was coming, why didn't she leave?
*sweeps plate of cookies off table*
Maybe you knew I was going to do that, maybe you didn't. If you did, that means you baked those cookies and set that plate right there deliberately, purposefully. Which means you're sitting there also deliberately, purposefully.

[Mystic Muse]

that's from the matrix isn't it?

[factotum]

And then he'll be happy because he doesn't like people coming anyway. He's only nice to true dragons and dragonoids from what I can tell and he does give them what they need.

QFT. He doesn't want visits from icky mammals and the like, and since we didn't see how he answered the Momma Dragon's question, he might well have been more useful for her. He might even have warned her she would die if she went after V, but she decided to go ahead anyway.

[Werbaer]

As for Belkar killing him, we could argue all night about that one, but I'm just going to say this once:

The Oracle tried to argue that that prophecy had already been fulfilled, in various far-fetched ways, so that Belkar wouldn't kill him
Disagree. The oracle had foreseen that Belkar would kill him. He might have avoided the death at that point if he told him that the prophecy will happen later. Instead, his actions provoked Belkar and caused the things he saw to really happen.



If the Oracle knew that Belkar was going to kill him anyway and he couldn't get out of it, then why exactly did he bother with all those other justifications?
Either to make fun of Belkar and provoke him; or to ensure that what he saw really does happen.



If the Oracle deliberately provoked Belkar to kill him, should that still be counted as "successful prophecy"?
He saw it in his trance, and he took no actions to prevent it. Yes, it counts.

[Asta Kask]

I created an account just to address this.

"What can I do to make sure V doesn't forget about me again?"

"Try Ginko bilboa."

It is a perfectly valid answer, especially since Ginkgo Bilboa is medicinally used to prevent the onset of Alzheimer's.

First of all, it's Ginkgo Biloba. At least in our world. And second, it's used that way but there is no proven effect.

[ObadiahtheSlim]

The oracles death was for 2 reasons.

1.) it was funny.

2.) It was self-fufilling. If the oracle said no, then Belkar coulda just killed the oracle in spite. That makes the answer yes.

As for his wrong prediction of Roy forgetting you miss one thing. It was conditional. Roy would only forget it when he goes through the charm barrier. Getting banished circumvented it. If Roy goes to see the oracle again, he will likely forget his freebies.

[ChowGuy]

The oracle had foreseen that Belkar would kill him. He might have avoided the death at that point if he told him that the prophecy will happen later. Instead, his actions provoked Belkar and caused the things he saw to really happen.

Knowing the fate will result from one's own actions, and trying but being unable to prevent it despite trying, has been a trope in the mythos of the prophet since long the gods cursed Cassanadra (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/TheCassandra). Just because he didn't want Belkar to kill him does not mean that, once having foreseen it, he was not powerless to stop it.

[veti]

First of all, it's Ginkgo Biloba. At least in our world. And second, it's used that way but there is no proven effect.

And third, even if there were a proven effect, this isn't an oracular-type answer to that question. The Oracle isn't some souped-up agony aunt, people don't go to him because he knows random trivia, but because he can see The Truth.

If that were the question, then an Oracular answer should have referenced the flight of the phylactery.

[Shale]

Unless the question was "how can I," not "how will I." You're assuming with your definition of "Oracular-type answer" that the Oracle isn't a complete jerk.

[Kish]

And third, even if there were a proven effect, this isn't an oracular-type answer to that question. The Oracle isn't some souped-up agony aunt, people don't go to him because he knows random trivia, but because he can see The Truth.

If that were the question, then an Oracular answer should have referenced the flight of the phylactery.
So maybe the question was about sexual dysfunction, as someone suggested way back when the strip came out.

The ability of any person on this board to speculate something you find convincing as Blackwing's question is really beside the point. It's still not valid to say an answer was a bad one when you don't even know the question, nor is there any indication Blackwing objected to the answer he got.

[Asta Kask]

So maybe the question was about sexual dysfunction, as someone suggested way back when the strip came out.

No proven effect for anti-depressant induced sexual dysfunction in double-blind trial. Of course, it wasn't done on ravens (or elves, for that matter).

[Durgok]

First of all, it's Ginkgo Biloba. At least in our world.

I'm sorry, I was unaware that my accidental typo placing my 'O' in Biloba (as such I typed bilboa) was so offensive. I will do my best to remedy this in the future.


And second, it's used that way but there is no proven effect.

Perhaps that's why the Oracle said to "try" it? Nothing was asked that would require any foresight.


Unless the question was "how can I," not "how will I." You're assuming with your definition of "Oracular-type answer" that the Oracle isn't a complete jerk.

Exactly, the process (if I recall correctly) is you pay him, ask your question and then he'll answer it. Nothing is mentioned that you can't ask a question that doesn't involve foresight.

And even if foresight was required/expected he's not going to offer more information than what is required to answer the exact question asked, which was shown when Roy asked where Xykon will be next.

[Asta Kask]

I'm sorry, I was unaware that my accidental typo placing my 'O' in Biloba (as such I typed bilboa) was so offensive. I will do my best to remedy this in the future.

I'm sorry if you took offense, but I'm a born pedant. :smallsmile:

[Rotipher]

Perhaps that's why the Oracle said to "try" it? Nothing was asked that would require any foresight.

For all we know, Blackwing's prophesy did come true. V certainly does remember that the raven exists now, so perhaps Blackwing slipped gingko into the elf's supply of tea leaves. Drinking this tea on the island jogged V's memory just enough so that V could draw upon Blackwing's assistance in the battle with Xykon ... at which point, the raven's heroic effort, not the gingko itself, is what shamed Vaarsuvius into remembering vir familiar.

[Xerxus]

The oracle has spoken no lies, indeed, if Roy does at a later time pass through the memory charm then he will forget everything else, thusly it is a non-proved statement until he dies or the memory charm disappears.

And what Blackwing might have said is "what can i try to [solve problem best solved with ginkgo biloba]". However it is pointless to speculate about what it was since whatever you come up with that can be disproved you cannot know that there is a question that could have the completely truthful answer "try ginkgo biloba".

And while I'm at it, Xykon was in his throneroom. So everyone of his statements that have been questioned are as far as I can see not yet disproved or true, no matter their relevance. Which statistically and judging from The Giants comment as well as the fact that he is the Oracle; Makes him fully omniscient in this story!

[silversaraph]

And what Blackwing might have said is "what can i try to [solve problem best solved with ginkgo biloba]". However it is pointless to speculate about what it was since whatever you come up with that can be disproved you cannot know that there is a question that could have the completely truthful answer "try ginkgo biloba".

Don't forget, the oracle was only able to give Haley her prediction by "looking forward into the book, where it will be translated". I'm willing to bet that he was able to understand Blackwing by looking forward to the strip where V asks him what it was he needed to know, which will be on-panel. So eventually, we will know.

[factotum]

Don't forget, the oracle was only able to give Haley her prediction by "looking forward into the book, where it will be translated". I'm willing to bet that he was able to understand Blackwing by looking forward to the strip where V asks him what it was he needed to know, which will be on-panel. So eventually, we will know.

But he is also able to see future things that are NOT likely to be part of the strip--e.g. his own death in a couple of years' time to an enraged Druid. Saying he can see the future just by looking ahead in the strip doesn't fit.

[SoC175]

No, customer service is irrelevant, that's why the Oracle gets to be as rude as he likes to his visitors. But people do remember the answers, and if what they remember about them - and tell other people about them - is that they're useless, then people will eventually stop coming. Actually I recall a prominent RL oracle giving exactly this kind of useless answers and people still flocked to it

Can you frame a plausible question to which "Try ginko bilboa" is a perfectly truthful answer, as opposed to just a possibly-helpful suggestion? It's a perfectly truthful answer if it perfectly solves what ever it's applied against. It may be one of many possibilities to cure whatever ailment it's to be applied against, but if it's the one that cures, it's a perfectly truthful answer that saved the applicant from having to try several other cures first.

[veti]

... which all comes back to what I first said. The Oracle is infallible if you assume he's infallible. Start from that assumption and it becomes not only possible, but almost irresistible, to come up with some sort of justification for everything he says. To the point where there are several people in this thread seriously claiming that he was even right about Roy's memory being erased, even though he was very clearly wrong by any normal interpretation of reality.

But if you take out that assumption, if you think that the Oracle may have some flashes of insight but is unreliable and untruthful, as well as just unhelpful... then that interpretation makes just as much sense.

[Kish]

... which all comes back to what I first said. The Oracle is infallible if you assume he's infallible. Start from that assumption and it becomes not only possible, but almost irresistible, to come up with some sort of justification for everything he says. To the point where there are several people in this thread seriously claiming that he was even right about Roy's memory being erased, even though he was very clearly wrong by any normal interpretation of reality.

But if you take out that assumption, if you think that the Oracle may have some flashes of insight but is unreliable and untruthful, as well as just unhelpful... then that interpretation makes just as much sense.
Flashes of insight? The Oracle wouldn't be alive now if he hadn't been able to predict the exact date, time, and method of his own death, apparently more than once, well enough to bet his own life on his prediction.

Someone in this thread suggested that Roy will go through the memory charm at some point in the future. I don't expect that to happen myself, but it's not one-tenth the stretch claiming the Oracle "may" have some "flashes of insight" is.

[factotum]

But if you take out that assumption, if you think that the Oracle may have some flashes of insight but is unreliable and untruthful, as well as just unhelpful... then that interpretation makes just as much sense.

No, it doesn't. We have many examples of the Oracle being dead right about the future (including knowing the exact hour he would be killed by Belkar). The only thing he's said that is arguably wrong is the bit about Roy losing his memory when he passes through the memory charm, and in fact that ISN'T wrong--Roy *would* have lost his memory if he'd passed through the charm; the only mistake the Oracle made was in not checking that Dismissal would cause Roy to go through it rather than bypassing it entirely.

[Xerxus]

... which all comes back to what I first said. The Oracle is infallible if you assume he's infallible. Start from that assumption and it becomes not only possible, but almost irresistible, to come up with some sort of justification for everything he says. To the point where there are several people in this thread seriously claiming that he was even right about Roy's memory being erased, even though he was very clearly wrong by any normal interpretation of reality.

But if you take out that assumption, if you think that the Oracle may have some flashes of insight but is unreliable and untruthful, as well as just unhelpful... then that interpretation makes just as much sense.

It does not matter what you or I think or assume, you can not disprove his being able to predict infallibly and judging from the fact that he is "the Oracle", he probably is. There is no reason to assume one thing or the other, until he predicts somehing wrong then it makes more sense that the [word which means person who predicts the future as used by the story-writer] is infallible. The clue... is in his... title.

As for any normal interpretation of the statement about Roy losing his memory when he passes through the memory charm, I'd say that you are putting words into his mouth. He does not lie when he says that Roy will lose his memory when he passes through the memory charm, as I just said he will if and when he does, and it is disproved when it is impossible for this occurrance to happen. If he had said that Roy would lose his memory before exiting the area then fine, if he had put up a timelimit then fine, but oracles are not known for speaking uncomplicated truth, as far as I know.

[SoC175]

... which all comes back to what I first said. The Oracle is infallible if you assume he's infallible. Start from that assumption and it becomes not only possible, but almost irresistible, to come up with some sort of justification for everything he says. And you have brought no justification at all why "Try Ginko bilboa." should be considered to have been anything other than a true prophesy.

If you ask the oracle "where can I get a good pizza" and he says "try Da Mario's" that's a clear answer, not even an obscure answer. It safes you from getting a bad pizza at "Luigi's" or "Giavonni's". Now if the oracle had just said "in Cliffport", then he would have been a jerk.

[Mystic Muse]

If you ask the oracle "where can I get a good pizza" and he says "try Da Mario's" that's a clear answer, not even an obscure answer. It safes you from getting a bad pizza at "Luigi's" or "Giavonni's". Now if the oracle had just said "in Cliffport", then he would have been a jerk.

Hey, the fact that the oracle is a jerk isn't up for debate.:smalltongue:

[Spiky]

Okay, if we add in the OtOoPCs one, we have 13 statements, of which:

6 correct
1 incorrect
2 meaningless
4 pending


I'd say that gives him a batting average somewhere between 46% and 85%.

(Edit: or, looking at it another way, the current average is about 67%.)

I'm not trying to rubbish the Oracle - even at the lower end of the scale, he's doing a lot better than my predictions - but the "100%" figure is just plain false.
This is not how percentages, and specifically batting averages, work. There is no comparison to pending prophecies in baseball, so you have to take those out of the metaphor. And the incorrect statement was not in green, so it was not a prophecy. Batting average currently: 1.000 (please note there is no percent sign in a batting average)

Seriously, if you are arguing (and I really can't tell what you are arguing) that the Oracle is fallible because a non-prophecy did not come true, you must not understand the job description of an Oracle. If you are arguing that you don't like the Oracle's answers (as indicated by your category "meaningless"), get in line. Roy's in front of that one, and he's got a nasty +5 sword.

edit:
Wait, I'm sorry. I just reread what he said. "You'll forget everything else once you pass through the Memory Charm." Which Roy never did, so that was not a false statement. And Roy even explained why. He must just like telling the truth. I guess maybe you can call him fallible for not understanding the effects of the Dismissal spell he used, but that still has nothing to do with his fallibility as an Oracle.

[lio45]

No, of course that's not a good explanation, but nor were the Oracle's own explanations for how Belkar had "caused the deaths" of Roy and Windstriker.

Uh, no. The Oracle's explanation is 100% satisfying...

Belkar gave Roy that ring of Jumping, and successfully persuaded Roy to use it to reach, and subsequently attack, Xykon -- basically suicide.

I don't see how anyone can try to argue that Belkar did not cause the death of Roy... he totally did. The part he played is crystal clear, and is an essential component to the way Roy died.

[SaintRidley]

I count twelve predictions/answers that we know of:

Xykon is in his throne room - true, but so vague as to be meaningless.
Xykon is in the Dungeon of Dorukan - true.
Xykon will be at Girard's Gate next - not fulfilled yet.
Belkar will cause the death of at least one of the above - true, again on a technicality. (If you're prepared to stretch logic as far as the Oracle did in justifying that one, I think you could make a case that I caused at least one of those deaths, by being a reader.) True, not on a technicality, considering Belkar's stabbing of the Oracle. The other's are technicalities and gravy, almost certainly to egg Belkar on and give him motivation to actually fulfil his prophecy.
Vaarsuvius and All The Wrong Reasons - true.
Haley and the gift horse - true.
Elan will have a happy ending - could be true on a technicality, but by the popular reading it hasn't been fulfilled yet.
Durkon will return home posthumously - not fulfilled yet.
Belkar will die (or whatever) - not fulfilled yet.
"Try gingko bilboa" - well, we don't know what the question was, but that's not a prophecy anyway, it's a suggestion. "Try"? Seriously, if that's the sort of advice you want, you can get it from any quack healer, you don't need to pay for divinely inspired Truth. If he's making a suggestion, why count is as any sort of prophecy?
Roy will "forget everything else once you pass through the memory charm" - wrong. Consider that Roy has yet to actually do so. He popped out of one place and into another place instantaneously. No moving through things at all. So not fulfilled yet, and if Roy ever visits the Oracle again then true. Likewise, not a prophecy but a statement that need not ever reflect the state of the future.
Vaarsuvius killed the young black dragon - true.


So let's not torture logic to make the Oracle seem more "infallible" than he is.

Likewise, let's not torture logic to make him seem more fallible than he is.

[Zevox]

I don't see how anyone can try to argue that Belkar did not cause the death of Roy...
Because he didn't. He contributed to setting up the situation in which Roy's death took place, but he was by no stretch of the imagination the cause of it, direct or otherwise. The whole point of the comic #567 (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0567.html) was to show that - the Oracle even commented that he "wasn't really buying those theories either," and he's the one who knows what the actual fulfillment of his prophecies will be - and to have the actual fulfillment of Belkar's prophecy when he killed the Oracle.

Zevox

[Morthis]

... which all comes back to what I first said. The Oracle is infallible if you assume he's infallible. Start from that assumption and it becomes not only possible, but almost irresistible, to come up with some sort of justification for everything he says. To the point where there are several people in this thread seriously claiming that he was even right about Roy's memory being erased, even though he was very clearly wrong by any normal interpretation of reality.

But if you take out that assumption, if you think that the Oracle may have some flashes of insight but is unreliable and untruthful, as well as just unhelpful... then that interpretation makes just as much sense.

Honestly, it feels much more like you're trying to stretch the situation to fit your desire to make the oracle fallible than the other way around. You're counting predictions that haven't come true against him. You're counting predictions that we simply cannot decipher against him.

So far, every prediction we actually can confirm has absolutely come true. There's no logical reason to believe that the others won't eventually come true as well.

[veti]

Seriously, if you are arguing (and I really can't tell what you are arguing) that the Oracle is fallible because a non-prophecy did not come true, you must not understand the job description of an Oracle. If you are arguing that you don't like the Oracle's answers (as indicated by your category "meaningless"), get in line. Roy's in front of that one, and he's got a nasty +5 sword.

By "meaningless", I mean that it is impossible to assign any truth value (1, 0, or anything in between) to the answer "Try gingko bilboa", unless the question is "What would my favourite quack healer advise me to do about V's memory problem?", which I (quite arbitrarily, I admit) consider an implausibly convoluted way of framing the question.

Likewise "in his throne room". Roy already knew that he could find Xykon there, so net information added by the Oracle - zero.


Wait, I'm sorry. I just reread what he said. "You'll forget everything else once you pass through the Memory Charm." Which Roy never did, so that was not a false statement. And Roy even explained why. He must just like telling the truth. I guess maybe you can call him fallible for not understanding the effects of the Dismissal spell he used, but that still has nothing to do with his fallibility as an Oracle.

"You'll feel a lot better when you stop beating your wife." If my prediction is predicated on a future event that never happens (edit: and it's unconditional, i.e. it doesn't include the word 'if'), then it's either false or meaningless. And all that baloney about how Roy "may pass through the charm at some future date" is exactly the contorted rationalisation that I'm complaining about in this thread - it's clearly not what the Oracle is thinking when he makes the statement, and I doubt if he even knows what effect it would have on the subject's memory of a previous visit.

[Kish]

And all that baloney about how Roy "may pass through the charm at some future date" is exactly the contorted rationalisation that I'm complaining about in this thread - it's clearly not what the Oracle is thinking when he makes the statement, and I doubt if he even knows what effect it would have on the subject's memory of a previous visit.
You're leaning a great deal on something derfenrirwolv said once and hasn't bothered to address further. Again, speaking of contorted rationalizations, if I were forced to choose between "Roy will go through the memory charm in the future and forget his last visit as well as the new one then" and, "the Oracle may have flashes of insight, but not specific knife-sharp knowledge of future events," which choice to make would be obvious, as the latter is utterly irreconcilable with the events of the story so far.

[SmaugTheYounger]

(snip)
As for Belkar killing him, we could argue all night about that one, but I'm just going to say this once:

The Oracle tried to argue that that prophecy had already been fulfilled, in various far-fetched ways, so that Belkar wouldn't kill him
If the Oracle knew that Belkar was going to kill him anyway and he couldn't get out of it, then why exactly did he bother with all those other justifications?
If the Oracle deliberately provoked Belkar to kill him, should that still be counted as "successful prophecy"?

(snip)

Im fully on the Oracle's side here, I don't think it's farfetched at all. Causing Death and killing someone are very different things after all.

The original dialogs:

Oracle: No, it was the fall from the zombie dragon that killed him. And Belkar gave Roy his Ring of Jumping +20, which allowed him to leap onto the dragon in the first place.
He caused that fall to be possible; without the Ring, Roy would've face Xykon on solid ground.
(…)
Celia: I'm sorry, but that's stretch. Giving someone a ring is not the same as killing them!
Oracle: Objection overruled, Counsellor. Never said he "killed" Roy, just that he "caused the death" of him. Which is what the idiot technically asked me that day.
And like any effect, that splat had many causes, such as gravity, the geological composition of the Southern Lands, a butterfly flapping its tiny wings somewhere, and an alarming deficit of jetpacks.
And, I might add, your own lack of information about your booty's physical capabilities.

(Pure classic...)

And it was'nt just what Belkar technically asked, it was his exact question:

Do I get to cause the death of any of the following: Miko, Miko's stupid horse, Roy, Vaarsuvius, or you?

He clearly meant to ask whom he will get to kill, but obviously he couldn't do that when two of the names where members of his very own group, who where standing right beside him.

The Oracle doesn't care about meaning, just about the actual question, and even then tries to reveal as little as possible.

And the oracle had options, I believe: Getting killed was worth screwing Belkar really hard. When Roy had him dangling out of the window, he could have also chosen death. But this was

unlikely, because Roy is lawful good, and
would have diminished his reputation, making him earn less gp on the long run.

So he choose to answer a third question.

[Roland St. Jude]

Sheriff: Thread Necromancy.