Ouch, falling trends and future of OOTS?

[ChrisWaher]

Does anyone know how good the sales are for The Order of the Stick? Popularity seems to be falling steadily. In fact, Order of the Stick is now barely as popular as it was when it started up.

Google Trends of Order of the Stick compared to a non-serialized comic (http://www.google.com/trends?q=order+of+the+stick%2C+xkcd&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0)

I am somewhat afraid of the future of OOTS, especially when economy is as it is. Ive ordered all the books throughout the years and I'm hoping the quality of those books continues. There has been a positive trend in OOTS quality even as its popularity seems to crawl (part of the reason being that it is a hard comic to follow unless you start from the beginning, OOTS being more serialized than ever).

I have my hopes up, since Rich said in the last book that the half-point has been crossed, which gives me hope for at least a few more books. I just hope that the man stays financially motivated enough to release books of that great a quality as the recent ones have been. I am especially in love with the 'deleted scenes' and additional materials and much prefer to read the comic in the book format, than online.

So any information on how well the book has sold?

[Ancalagon]

You missed an important point: it lists SEARCHES. Which means people want to inform themselves about "something". You get a boost when something is new and many, many people search for it.

All those puny stats you posted mean is that oots is not as unknown on the net anymore as it was three years back. Lower influx in new-interest does not say anything(!) at all about absolute numbers of readers.

People, in general, have no clue on statistics. Which is quite sad and very bad. Please get one or your politicians and companies will use them to *lie* to you and to cheat you into believing all sorts of wrong things!

PS: I think Rich will tell us when he does not make enough money. First, he'll add more stuff to buy, then he'll add donate buttons (as you see on basically ALL other webcomics), then he'll say he needs a real job. Unless you see all of that: Don't worry.

[Killer Angel]

This is a kind of question I don't know if it's permitted by the rules, even with the best intention from your part... (Edit: see Roland's post closing this thread (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?t=138337&page=2).)

Anyway, don't worry: the site is constantly growing, so his popularity.

[Teddy]

When I first read the title, I thought it was about adventurers falling from the sky and some more epileptic speculation.

And it's sad how easy it is to fool people with statistics...

[Killer Angel]

When I first read the title, I thought it was about adventurers falling from the sky

Indeed, it happens very often... :smallbiggrin:
a famous example (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0443.html)
and another one (http://goblins.keenspot.com/d/20060721.html)

[blueblade]

Also worth mentioning that you have chosen a fairly unfair competitor. xkcd frequently receives interest from non-webcomic readers as it has spawned a couple of interesting web phenomena/traffic.

Try penny arcade, and the results look much more alike:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=order+of+the+stick%2C+penny+arcade&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

[Lissou]

PS: I think Rich will tell us when he does not make enough money. First, he'll add more stuff to buy, then he'll add donate buttons (as you see on basically ALL other webcomics), then he'll say he needs a real job. Unless you see all of that: Don't worry.

You forgot "putting ads on the website".

OOTS is one of the only webcomics I know that doesn't have any ads or a donate button. That means it makes all of its revenue from selling stuff (books, shirts, etc). It'd say it's doing well if the Giant can afford to do that, or he's got another source or revenue. Either way, I wouldn't worry too much.

The way I see it, your graph shows the amount of new readers, since it's about searches. But the thing is, we don't have all elements. It's possible XKCD readers read one strip or two and never come back. And then they remember there was that math strip and do a google search. And that oots fan just bookmark it and come back regularly for years, never needing to do a search again.
In that example, OOTS would have much more readers and, more importantly, more regular readers. Regular readers are those who will spend money on stuff. And a graphic novel, as oppose to a gag-a-day strip, will basically have only regular readers.

I'm personally not worried. I know the fans here are fans enough to contribute money if the Giant needed any, so that OOTS can keep going. And I'm sure the Giant would do everything he can to make sure OOTS doesn't crash down to the ground, even if it means having to ask for donations.

Anyways, it's still a very successful comic. I mean I can mention it pretty much anywhere on the net and have people know what I'm talking about, which is the case for the Gods of Arr-Kelaan for instance, or even Goblins.

[Katana_Geldar]

There's also the fact that the novels can be a way of fans getting other fans into it. My books have become a bit worn from being lent, but they have all ended up with people becoming fans.

[Turkish Delight]

I have a feeling this thread will be locked. The Giant seems a bit touchy about his privacy, and speculation about the state of his finances probably counts in that regard.

But really, I highly doubt anything that happens will put an end to OotS, barring the Giant losing interest in the whole project. No one with any common sense starts a web comic with the expectation of making lots of money; you start out for fun and in the case of the overwhelming bulk of web comics you continue for the same reason. If the worst comes and the Giant stops pulling in enough money, then he'll just be where he presumably once was when the thing began; doing something else to pay the bills while drawing comics on the side. It ran fine then, no reason it can't now.

[ChrisWaher]

Also worth mentioning that you have chosen a fairly unfair competitor. xkcd frequently receives interest from non-webcomic readers as it has spawned a couple of interesting web phenomena/traffic.

Try penny arcade, and the results look much more alike:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=order+of+the+stick%2C+penny+arcade&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

No no, you misunderstand. I placed xkcd there as an example of an episodic, non-serialized comic, not as a comparison in terms of popularity.

What I was trying to point out was how the serialized format affects the comics popularity. Those that love the series will continue reading it no matter what, this means that -us here- love it and praise it until the end of time. Problem is the number of new readers, which means that the word of mouth has lessened, this is visible from google trends (which shows relatively well the effect of word of mouth, since people do not have the direct link yet). I am wondering if this reflects at all elsewhere, such as the book sales.

With Rich putting a lot of effort into the latest book, which has a lot of original content, I am simply interested if that has reflected in sales positively or not, especially considering the struggles in economy. I barely read these forums, so I don't know if sales numbers of previous books have been released or not, for comparison.

I would ask about Google Analytics, but I could not detect it on the website, so I am assuming that the sites own statistics are not being tracked.

My concern comes from the relatively chaotic release schedule of OOTS as opposed to the first years, which must also have its effect on popularity.

[Onyavar]

As all of the readers above mentioned: I also bookmarked oots. When I'm not on my own PC, I just pass "www.giantitp.com" as url. Why would someone use the detour using "www.goolge.com"? Giantitp is easier to remind anyway ;-)

And second, I just entered some other search words for comparison. Girl Genius and Dominic Deegan for example are far below. TV Tropes has only recently become as popular as oots. There are big german newspapers that have only the doubled amount as oots. Compare also several nations (!!) like Liechtenstein, Latvia, Greenland, Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso. Or cities in China with millions of inhabitants like Wuhan and Chongqing.

In my opinion, The Order of the Stick has the popularity it deserves. That there is a decline in searches does prove exactly nothing.



My concern comes from the relatively chaotic release schedule of OOTS as opposed to the first years, which must also have its effect on popularity.

Aha, so this is your point? Now I wonder how long until the Sheriff closes the thread.

[ref]

Also, when Rich has needed to stop posting for some time, he's been always quick to add he doesn't need money, and suggest goodwills instead.

[TriForce]

No no, you misunderstand. I placed xkcd there as an example of an episodic, non-serialized comic, not as a comparison in terms of popularity.

What I was trying to point out was how the serialized format affects the comics popularity. Those that love the series will continue reading it no matter what, this means that -us here- love it and praise it until the end of time. Problem is the number of new readers, which means that the word of mouth has lessened, this is visible from google trends (which shows relatively well the effect of word of mouth, since people do not have the direct link yet). I am wondering if this reflects at all elsewhere, such as the book sales.

With Rich putting a lot of effort into the latest book, which has a lot of original content, I am simply interested if that has reflected in sales positively or not, especially considering the struggles in economy. I barely read these forums, so I don't know if sales numbers of previous books have been released or not, for comparison.

I would ask about Google Analytics, but I could not detect it on the website, so I am assuming that the sites own statistics are not being tracked.

My concern comes from the relatively chaotic release schedule of OOTS as opposed to the first years, which must also have its effect on popularity.

actually, you have made a slight misunderstanding, "word of mouth" actually prevents people from searching on google, since whenenever i suggest this page, i simply give them the web adress, it really isnt that hard to remember, and stuff like msn and others can simply be used to send the url.

so all you got is that people search less for it on google, wich could mean anything and nothing really

[Gamerlord]

What everyone else said above, I just type in the website name instead of searching.

On another note, how does DENMARK have more OOTS searchs?

EDIT: What.The. Edmonton, Canada is the number one searcher of OOTS and xkcd.

[The Dark Fiddler]

What if everybody searching for OotS uses other search engines like Bing or Yahoo!? :smalltongue:

Still, xkcd gets more searches because, and I can attest to this as I do it myself, people will often remember a specific strip and Google it to find it. Fairly simple.

Also, Rich doesn't like making his financial status public. Understandable, of course. Reading the comic (and sometimes buying the stuff) doesn't give us a right to know what he considers private, right?


PS: I think Rich will tell us when he does not make enough money. First, he'll add more stuff to buy, then he'll add donate buttons (as you see on basically ALL other webcomics), then he'll say he needs a real job. Unless you see all of that: Don't worry.

Rich won't add a donate button. He's said this before and made it absolutely clear; he doesn't want people feeling entitled to more just because they gave him an extra dollar.

[Lissou]

On another note, how does DENMARK have more OOTS searchs?

Actually, have you noticed that the number of searches is about the same in the first 5 or 6 countries? Looks like OOTS is more international.

I think oots has steady fans. Who don't need to do a search. That it's famous enough that it's linked to directly, especially since the address isn't too hard to remember. And that there are still new fans, and the old ones are staying.
Seriously, I don't see how oots is in any trouble at all.

Plus, you say you're worried that less search = less books sold, but the people who buy the books are the ones who are dedicated fans, and probably not the ones who just found the strip by searching.
Plus, I'd say compilation books have more chance to sell if it's a graphic novel rather than a gag-a-day thing. And if you buy a book, you tend to buy them all, too. I can't imagine that many people own book 4 only for instance (although I'm guessing a fair amount of people own the prequels only for instance).

Anyway, I find the stats interesting to look at but can't interpret them the way the OP did.


Rich won't add a donate button. He's said this before and made it absolutely clear; he doesn't want people feeling entitled to more just because they gave him an extra dollar.

Oh, that makes sense. I thought it was because he didn't need the money, and possibly for pride reasons, but fans do feel entitled to a lot of things.
Although I'd say they wouldn't feel entitled to more because they gave an extra dollar. They'd feel entitled to more because they /could/ give an extra dollar.

Either "you need our money, so you need me, so do whatever I say" or "hey, I donated to you", which is a lie 99% of the time when placed directly before or after a complain.

[Iranon]

Searches aren't a good method of comparing the popularity of these webcomics.

OotS has an overarching plot and a more defined target audience. There is little reason to keep searching for things... you become a regular or you give up. Either way, there's little reason to search.

xkcd is more diverse, more keyed to current fads, and strips vary wildly. Readers may not follow it in real-time but occasionally go 'I wonder whether Randall had something to say about x...' and search for it. Or think 'oh, there was that strip some time ago which I want a friend to see... very applicable for her atm' and, again, search for it.

[Killer Angel]

Rich won't add a donate button. He's said this before and made it absolutely clear; he doesn't want people feeling entitled to more just because they gave him an extra dollar.

Yep. And here's (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?t=110800) a specific thread on the argument, answered (multiple times) by Rich himself.

[ChrisFortyTwo]

Honestly, as a researcher into Human-Computer Interaction, "Order of the Stick" is searched less on Google than "xkcd" because 1) it's longer to type, and B) there are many names that Order of the Stick goes by.

Try adding up OotS, Order of the Stick, Giant in the Playground, giantitp, etc. Then think about how many people only add a bookmark when it becomes tedious. So, a person might bookmark Order of the stick, but not XKCD, because its easy to remember and type xkcd into google and click the website (link pops up within the searchbar) to go there.

Finally, a number of people search xkcd + [interesting thing I've never heard of mentioned on xkcd today], because they want to know what it was. I've heard plenty of talk about how when xkcd mentions something, the search for that thing has increased for the next few days - then suddenly people mention it on other websites when they throw around a buzzword, and other people search xkcd.

Anyway, there's my analysis on how poorly planned your statistical evaluation was. Better information is site traffic, which we are unlikely to see details about, considering it's private nature.

[ocdscale]

Actually, it seems that a greater percentage of people use search engines to get to Giantitp when compared to Xkcd.

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/giantitp.com?p=tgraph&r=home_home

Sadly, Alexa only goes far as back as 2008. Still the stats are very respectable, on par with Penny-Arcade and is ranked 14th in the broad category of "Comics" (above the likes of dccomics.com)

Also cool: "dragonfire inspiration" is the 8th most common search term that drives traffic to Giantitp.com

[Lissou]

Yep. And here's (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?t=110800) a specific thread on the argument, answered (multiple times) by Rich himself.

Thanks, I had missed this thread. It's pretty interesting and hopefully it will drop that part of the subject, and we can go back to discussing how statistics work (with some luck I'll even understand the explanations).

(I have to say that you've gotta admire how the Giant sticks to his principles. No donations, no ads, no letting people tell him what to do. Makes for a better site and a better comic. And I'm guessing it would be less stressful too.)

[The Extinguisher]

What everyone else said above, I just type in the website name instead of searching.

On another note, how does DENMARK have more OOTS searchs?

EDIT: What.The. Edmonton, Canada is the number one searcher of OOTS and xkcd.

Oops. Sorry. My bad. :smallbiggrin:

[Roland St. Jude]

Sheriff of Moddingham: Yeah, this thread raises several topics that are out of bounds here - the "chaotic release schedule" being one of them. But also, no one has the requested information about The Giant's finances but him (nor is it anyone's business but his).

Thread locked.