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View Full Version : Are some people just that lucky?



oxinabox
2010-03-26, 06:23 PM
Ok so theres a player i playwith/run games for.
Now his luck is insane.
sso this in nWoD.
He often rolls successes up to his dice pool.
Pretty sure he rerolls things that he shouldn't. (ie cheating, even if it is just cos he forgot he wasn't weilding a 9 again weapon (the opposite of me, who forgets hey are weilding a 9 again weapon).
His rolls are significantly statistically unlikely.
I've seen him do some insane rolls,
28 from pool of 19 (that was with 8 again though)
I also think he occationally rerolls 3's (they do look like zero zero kinda)

On the one hand he's probably a cheat.


But then again:
I was having really bad luck last session.
I mean I had Big dicepools >7 (some greater than 10)
But i was rolling Zero Successes (None of my rolls we succeeding)

So I asked him to bless my dice,
I was holding them in my hand, and he just touched (poked) one of them (i think he poked the number 9 or 10)
and then I rolled them,
and Suddenly I'm rolling Exceptional successes.

another player has noticed that if he rolls the dice in a way that it bounces off the lucky players arm, it always rolls a success.

(Some/most of this can be blamed on the fact that we remember the significant/intersting, and forget the boring that normally happens.)

Has anyone ever come across a player who was this lucky?

kamikasei
2010-03-26, 06:28 PM
His rolls are significantly statistically unlikely.

Have you actually tracked all his rolls over a worthwhile span of time, and all the rest of the table's as well?

"On all the occasions when I remember him getting memorable (i.e. unusually high) rolls, his rolls were above average" is not a very compelling observation.

Yukitsu
2010-03-26, 06:47 PM
I kept track of my die rolls in 10 or so warhammer games. I rolled 526 ones, 438 twos, 509 threes, 207 fours, 328 fives and 195 sixes on various D6s, both mine and my freinds. One game included 26 ones in a row.

Inversely, someone out there is rolling really darn well to compensate for that, so I'd guess that yes, that some people really can roll that.

I've also seen one of my dice in a game where we only had the one, roll 8 consecutive ones, and 4 consecutive 20s. The ones were us players, while all four 20s were the DMs.

Jerthanis
2010-03-26, 06:48 PM
I'm playing an nWoD game where I have a base dicepool of 16 for my attack rolls and I have yet to do more than 2 damage on an individual attack.

World of Darkness seems like it'd produce a fairly pronounced bell curve, but I think due to the nature of combining separate random elements and exploding dice, the curve is far flatter than it seems at first.

the humanity
2010-03-26, 06:53 PM
I always either roll a 1-5 or a 13-20 on one dice. I rolled a 7 on it once. once.

granted I don't roll it that often, but still.

he might cheat.

he might not. how often have you had him fail a really important check, like a move silent that he got a 2 on with a Pit Fiend in the other room? a will save to avoid being dominated? if it happens every once and a while, he's probably not cheating.

Thajocoth
2010-03-26, 06:58 PM
Yes, some people are that lucky. I tend to have fairly good luck. There's one guy at my table who tends to roll a lot of 17s on his impossible to read clear d20. (I know he's not cheating, but we do tease him for rolling well on a die that he has to hold an inch from his face to see the numbers on.)

Jack_Simth
2010-03-26, 07:06 PM
A couple of things....

1) The die is not the random number. The die follows some extremely predictable physical laws once it's set in motion.. Your hand, your muscles, your nerves, are the random number generator. The die is just the indicator. In theory, it's totally possible to train yourself to roll better, similar to how you can train yourself to balance better.

2) Most dice are unbalanced and slightly irregular. Vegas spends a LOT of money on getting dice that are very, very balanced and very, very regular; a pair of vegas-quality d6's run about $20... and the tables at Vegas replace them every few hours so that the use doesn't change their balance or regularity. The $0.10 dice you find in a gaming store? Those aren't treated so carefully. They are very often accidentally weighted, making some sides more likely than others.

3) Most people remember memorable things over non-memorable things, and our experiences are filtered through our expectations. You're much, much more likely to remember the double-20 crit than you are the roll-of-15 hit. You're much more likely to remember the natural-1 miss than you are the roll-of-5 miss. Unless you're specifically tracking (like Yukitsu, apparently), whether a given individual's dice rolls are statistically likely, or not, is... difficult to determine.

oxinabox
2010-03-26, 07:13 PM
Have you actually tracked all his rolls over a worthwhile span of time, and all the rest of the table's as well?

"On all the occasions when I remember him getting memorable (i.e. unusually high) rolls, his rolls were above average" is not a very compelling observation.


3) Most people remember memorable things over non-memorable things, and our experiences are filtered through our expectations. You're much, much more likely to remember the double-20 crit than you are the roll-of-15 hit. You're much more likely to remember the natural-1 miss than you are the roll-of-5 miss. Unless you're specifically tracking (like Yukitsu, apparently), whether a given individual's dice rolls are statistically likely, or not, is... difficult to determine

I am aware of this phenominom (i tried to explain it in my OP, but i failed, your explaination is better).
I'm starting to track his rolls.
I've made a tool to calculate the probability of any particular roll. (Yay, it uses Dynamic Programming, (cos the STsystem is that damn computationally hard to calculate))
and I plan on tracking the pobabilities of him getting the successes he got.

Traveler
2010-03-26, 07:57 PM
Yes, some people are blessed. One of the guys I game with just has it, whatever it is. He dosn't cheat (we "checked" once and he rolled three 20s in a row...), he dosn't roll them is a certain way, he dosn't reroll, he just does.

These people exist, and me must pray they use their power for good.

Math_Mage
2010-03-26, 08:16 PM
Teela Brown (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teela_Brown).
(everyone should read Larry Niven.)
That is all.

Shadowbane
2010-03-26, 08:17 PM
Some are. I played a game where I had a character with four 18's for stats, all rolled. The other two rolls? 17, 17.

It happens.

oxinabox
2010-03-26, 08:46 PM
Some are. I played a game where I had a character with four 18's for stats, all rolled. The other two rolls? 17, 17.

It happens.

So yuou were having a good day.
This player doesn't have bad days. (well i've seen one and even then he was just slightly below average)
But more they that, he can turn other peoples bad luck around.

Shadowbane
2010-03-26, 08:47 PM
Generally, I roll very high. I think I have an average of four to five criticals per three hour gaming session.

That said, if he literally never rolls bad, likely cheating.

PersonMan
2010-03-26, 08:59 PM
Generally, I roll very high. I think I have an average of four to five criticals per three hour gaming session.

That said, if he literally never rolls bad, likely cheating.

A brother of a friend of mine will almost always roll incredibly well for his stats. An old friend of mine who never really got into DnD had insane luck with saves and skill checks.
Both of them would roll badly on their "specialties" so rarely the others in my group and I would often make sure they weren't cheating.

Some people really are just crazy lucky. Or keep getting natural 20s on 'Rolling Posture'...

Tinydwarfman
2010-03-26, 09:23 PM
He may be a really good dice, it's definitely possible, just search 'how to cheat at dice' in google.

EDIT: think the video I saw was by Jiggaboo Jones, just beware of some bad language.

Tiki Snakes
2010-03-26, 09:28 PM
You could just impose dice-cup-rolling, perhaps? Change the way he rolls, to increase the randomness by, where possible, removing the posture thing.

Oh, and make sure the dice get a proper shake-up before being rolled.

Dice dropping winds me up, personally, even though it's never really done for any benefits in my area. (Just some people don't roll enough for my tastes when they roll.)

arguskos
2010-03-26, 09:40 PM
Teela Brown (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teela_Brown).

That is all.
I hate Teela Brown, I HATE HER SO MUCH ARGH! :smallfurious:

Also, Louis Gridly Wu: best character ever, or best character possible? :smallcool:

Knaight
2010-03-26, 09:41 PM
On the whole die blessing thing, that is probably completely dumb luck. However, this guy is probably rolling using loaded dice. He may not know it, and really, the dice most gamers use are almost always loaded, by accident. He only needed to get lucky once, when getting the dice he has, not every time.

Emmerask
2010-03-26, 09:50 PM
On the whole die blessing thing, that is probably completely dumb luck. However, this guy is probably rolling using loaded dice. He may not know it, and really, the dice most gamers use are almost always loaded, by accident. He only needed to get lucky once, when getting the dice he has, not every time.

This, if you donīt buy high quality casino grade dice (sharp edges) they will be flawed and favor certain numbers.

Math_Mage
2010-03-26, 09:58 PM
I hate Teela Brown, I HATE HER SO MUCH ARGH! :smallfurious:

Also, Louis Gridly Wu: best character ever, or best character possible? :smallcool:

You hate her? I pity her. :smallfrown:

And personally, I'm not sure whether I'd prefer to give those awards to Louis Wu, or to his dad.

Soranar
2010-03-26, 10:09 PM
in short , yes

Some people are unusually lucky at luck based games, others not so much. I recommend random number generators (you can find many online for any diceroll, although 6 sided dies are easier to find)

They tend to fix that problem for me. (of course everyone has to agree to use them otherwise one might say you're cheating)


Among my groups my bad luck is legendary, to the point where I usually play characters that can ignore luck as much as is possible (always hit abilities/spells with no saves, etc)

I learned to do this after I've managed to not make a single roll in 1 game. 5 hours of failing every roll I make. Every last one.

Evard
2010-03-26, 10:14 PM
In the game of dice do not roll against SSGoW on here... He really IS that lucky and it scares me a bit... Rolling a d20, a roll under 15 is very rare...

Of course using computer dice it is the opposite haha no matter which one he uses his rolls barely get above a 10

dota600
2010-03-26, 10:31 PM
Yes, some people are incredible at luck based games. One of my friends, is too much. Four natural 20 and three natural one on the D.M while we are looking, that is no mean feat.

Knaight
2010-03-26, 10:33 PM
This, if you donīt buy high quality casino grade dice (sharp edges) they will be flawed and favor certain numbers.

Well, Jack Smith said it first, but the other two points of his were focused on more and it was ignored.

Dota, assuming all those were in a row, that is no more impressive than a 12, 18, 8, 3, 15, 9, and 17. There are enough noticeable, significant configurations for it to not be hugely important.

Draz74
2010-03-27, 12:49 AM
I kept track of my die rolls in 10 or so warhammer games. I rolled 526 ones, 438 twos, 509 threes, 207 fours, 328 fives and 195 sixes on various D6s, both mine and my freinds.

Yeeeeaaah, that's striking enough that I start to suspect your group is indeed playing with a rather unbalanced set of dice.

Then again ... (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosencrantz_and_Guildenstern_Are_Dead)

Lord Vukodlak
2010-03-27, 12:50 AM
One of the guys in my group Rick has a tendency to roll very high with D6's
so when someone rolls really well with a bunch of d6 we say "You rick rolled"

dota600
2010-03-27, 01:38 AM
Well, Jack Smith said it first, but the other two points of his were focused on more and it was ignored.

Dota, assuming all those were in a row, that is no more impressive than a 12, 18, 8, 3, 15, 9, and 17. There are enough noticeable, significant configurations for it to not be hugely important.

Dude is legit, he is not that into roleplaying or even into optimizing his character. He is just a simple human druid that heals, transforms to bear, send his wolf to fight and use his sling to throw stones at enemies.

He goes down a lot I got to say(like 2 to 3 times per session) but goddamn when he makes his save to die he always go 20 and some of his attack can roll three straight 20's in one go. Plus the fact that our D.M is not getting a decent damage or hit on him makes it all funny on our part.

Though he is not with us anymore, he is one of the most memorable guys that we played with because of his extreme luck.

Ravens_cry
2010-03-27, 04:20 AM
I got a Natural 20 (our group uses a +10 on a 20, -10 on an 1 house rule, even on skill checks) when it was the only result that would have produced the desired effect, diplomancing the guards that the Lieutenant was dominated, had turned invisible, and left the tent. All of which was true, but sounded pretty far fetched, and my character had NO ranks in Diplomacy, but I was the only one talking. I don't think I am lucky though, I have had enough rolls of suck to prove otherwise.

Yukitsu
2010-03-27, 11:21 AM
Yeeeeaaah, that's striking enough that I start to suspect your group is indeed playing with a rather unbalanced set of dice.

Then again ... (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosencrantz_and_Guildenstern_Are_Dead)

Same dice set distribution for the other players, using the same dice pool:
1: 297
2: 375
3: 352
4: 498
5: 251
6: 338

My luck was catastrophic enough that we went into all of this. We've all taken some uni level stats, so we accounted for all of that.