Superstitions - confirmed and refuted

[Serpentine]

In Australia, there are variations of a... "theory" about the ability of black cockatoos to predict rain. The one I'm familiar with states that the number of black cockatoos you see indicates the number of days until it rains.
Three days ago, I saw three black cockatoos. The reminder I put in my phone just went off. It is 6pm, and the sky is almost, if not actually, entirely clear. I'll give it 'til tomorrow, in case it's a "cockatoos, 1, 2, 3, rain" dealie, but I'm not liking its chances.

Has anyone here ever tested a superstition? If so, was it supported or refuted?

[Starfols]

I have a pet black cat, and my luck it terrible. :smalltongue:

[Thajocoth]

I used to pick up pennies on heads, because if you find a penny on heads & pick it up it's supposed to be good luck. When I stopped doing this, I saw a lot more of them... At one point, I think I actually saw a small pile of about 10 of them, 1 obscured, 7-ish on heads, and 2 on tails. After that this stopped happening and the quantity of pennies on heads I happen to see is about what I expect.

My luck is still quite good, without all the pennies on heads and 4-leaf clovers I used to find.

[MethosH]

Most superstitions I've tried failed... But I've figure its 50-50 chance.
Some are just non-sense... And some, on the other hand, even have some actually historical or scientific background to it...

When I test a superstition I really hope it fails :smallbiggrin:
Because if it actually works I'll need to test it again to make sure it wasn't just lucky.

[TheCountAlucard]

Reminds me of an "experiment in group psychology" we tried in Friday night's D&D game.

The party had brought the fight to a Juvenile Red Dragon. They were doing well enough against it, such that the dragon decided it was best to just cut its losses and get the heck out of there. The Fighter gets to make an attack of opportunity, and notes that if he crits, he might be able to bring it down entirely. He rolls, and then my eardrums are assaulted by his cheer at having rolled a nat 20. I remind him that he still needs to confirm the crit; his attack bonus was pretty good, so he had about even chances for it.

We all lean in, watching intently, when the Wizard starts chanting, "One, one, one, one..."

The Ranger starts chanting, "One, one, one, one..."

Everybody starts chanting, despite the Fighter's insistence that we shut up and let him roll...

The die rolls forth from his hand... and comes up a nat 1. :smalleek:

The nat 20 isn't canceled out or anything, by the way - he just doesn't crit.

[llamamushroom]

In Australia, there are variations of a... "theory" about the ability of black cockatoos to predict rain. The one I'm familiar with states that the number of black cockatoos you see indicates the number of days until it rains.
Three days ago, I saw three black cockatoos. The reminder I put in my phone just went off. It is 6pm, and the sky is almost, if not actually, entirely clear. I'll give it 'til tomorrow, in case it's a "cockatoos, 1, 2, 3, rain" dealie, but I'm not liking its chances.

Has anyone here ever tested a superstition? If so, was it supported or refuted?

Well, maybe the cockatoos were geographically confused - when I first read this yesterday, it was raining, and then it rained again today. They are only birds, after all.

For some reason, this thread reminds me of Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosencrantz_and_Guildenstern_Are_Dead), but I can't for the life of me think why...

[Cubey]

There are no confirmed superstitions, only flawed tests.
See also (http://www.cracked.com/article_17142_5-ways-common-sense-lies-to-you-everyday_p2.html) #2 on the list (possibly NSFW, because hey - cracked.com).

[Serpentine]

Well, it was cloudy today, nearly threatening to rain... but nyet.

And Cubey, the point of a proper test would aim to cancel out that effect. Your first statement would be an example of cynicism, rather than skepticism :smallwink:

[truemane]

Does a blanket denial of superstitions count as cynicism? Poor science, maybe. But cynicism? Wouldn't that then imply that a blanket acceptance of superstitions is idealism? I would say that opposite. In my ideal world, nothing is ruled by invisible, often nonsensical, possibly ironic forces.

But anyway...

My mother once kept track of every traffic light she passed to and from work for two weeks, because it seemed to her that she got more red lights than green every single day. It turned out her perception was false and she only got something like 20% reds. Not a controlled experiment by any means, but still entertaining.

[Serpentine]

I suppose it depends on your definition of superstition. For example, would you consider aphrodesiacs to be superstitions? If so, that means you don't consider it possible that there might be substances that can effect one's libido, without looking at a single experiment, doesn't it?

[Ravens_cry]

There are no confirmed superstitions, only flawed tests.
See also (http://www.cracked.com/article_17142_5-ways-common-sense-lies-to-you-everyday_p2.html) #2 on the list (possibly NSFW, because hey - cracked.com).
Disagree. Or rather, there can be means that have a beneficial end, even if it doesn't protect you against 'bad luck' or the 'evil eye'.

[Serpentine]

I would also accept "once a superstition is confirmed, it ceases to be a superstition".

[BisectedBrioche]

If I recall correct a study showed that all animals held superstitions.

For example if a pigeons will repeat certain activities that occur when they're being fed (if they're fed at completely random intervals) even if they have nothing to do with when they're fed.

[Flickerdart]

That's more Classical Conditioning than superstition.

[Ravens_cry]

If I recall correct a study showed that all animals held superstitions.

For example if a pigeons will repeat certain activities that occur when they're being fed (if they're fed at completely random intervals) even if they have nothing to do with when they're fed.
Which, like the spontaneously forming dice superstitions, does seem to be the source of many superstitions, attempts at controlling chaos. There are many aspects of the universe outside of our control that affects us.
So we try to find ways to hedge the bets in our favour, warding off the bad, enhancing the good.
When a random precipitation at the wrong time can ruin a years worth of effort, or when who dies of a pathogen might as well be random, finding some way that gives you hope, some feeling you have some form of control, is the only way for many to not feel pretty hopeless in this uncaring universe.

[BisectedBrioche]

That's more Classical Conditioning than superstition.

Nope. Classical conditioning is the result of frequent reinforcement. In this case the events were caused by one offs and there was no repetition to reinforce them.

[The Vorpal Tribble]

Luck superstitions, pfftt. You could boil a rabbit foot in four-leaf clover tea and then copper coat it in melted down lucky pennies and it'd still probably end up putting my eye out somehow.

[Eldritch Knight]

There exists a confirmed superstition here in my area of Canada, regarding the Tim Hortons Rrrrroll up the Rim contest. By my experience, I've had an 80% accuracy rate, so there is something to the superstition. Basically, if you decide to give your 'free coffee/tea/whatever' away, it increases the likelyhood of you winning on your next cup. Thus far, I've been on a roll for the past few days.

[thubby]

I would also accept "once a superstition is confirmed, it ceases to be a superstition".

this.

if we knew it worked it would just be science.

[truemane]

That's more Classical Conditioning than superstition.

Nope, it's the opposite actually. Operant Conditioning. Classical Conditioning is the process by which a response to a given stimulus is transferred to another stimulus.

Like Pavlov’s Dogs. You give them food, they salivate. You ring the bell while they get food, and eventually they salivate when the bell rings. It's nothing to do with behaviour. It's purely a manipulation of a given stimulus-response relationship.

Operant Conditioning is the process by which a given behaviour is rewarded. This causes that behaviour to increase in frequency over time.

And as anyone who's ever trained dogs will tell you, once the behaviour is properly cued, the most effective reward schedule is a random schedule.

Which is what causes superstitions.

[Solaris]

Nope. Classical conditioning is the result of frequent reinforcement. In this case the events were caused by one offs and there was no repetition to reinforce them.

I think it was Pyrian who pointed out that it's really just pattern recognition.

[Ravens_cry]

I think it was Pyrian who pointed out that it's really just pattern recognition.
"It rained the day I beat my drums, so if I beat the drums it will rain."
" I sneezed this afternoon, and my friends told me they were talking about me this afternoon. When I sneeze, they must be talking about me."
Pattern recognition.

[Solaris]

"It rained the day I beat my drums, so if I beat the drums it will rain."
" I sneezed this afternoon, and my friends told me they were talking about this afternoon. When I sneeze, they must be talking about me."
Pattern recognition.

Right, and the pigeons were doing the same thing.

[Ravens_cry]

Right, and the pigeons were doing the same thing.
Wouldn't surprise me. We all want to control the chaos, to make good things happen to us.

[BisectedBrioche]

I think it was Pyrian who pointed out that it's really just pattern recognition.

Pattern recognition requires a pattern. In this case the pidgeons were repeating the first event each time and treating it as a pattern.

Basically they're smart enough to be foolish.

[Thajocoth]

Brains are the absolute best pattern recognizers in the world. No computer we've built can yet match it's ability in this field.

[Pyrian]

Our pattern recognition (and apparently pigeon pattern recognition) is notorious for its high false positive rate.

[BisectedBrioche]

Our pattern recognition (and apparently pigeon pattern recognition) is notorious for its high false positive rate.

I suspect it's a quirk of a sufficently intelligent mind. You need to try an analyse something with a mind that can, to some degree, think for itself before you begin making mistakes.

As I said; smart enough to be foolish.

[Thajocoth]

Our pattern recognition (and apparently pigeon pattern recognition) is notorious for its high false positive rate.

This is a byproduct of the fact that we can fill in gaps in patterns so easily. Like, if we see a sentence that's missing a small helper word, we might "see" the word anyway, not noticing that it's missing. Heh, if we actually saw what we really see, with the blur, gaps and red lines, we'd be nearly blind. Though that's not the same usage of the word "see" as the sentence previous.

It's the same sort of thing though. Just as more information is sent from the brain to the senses than is sent from the senses to the brain, our pattern recognition skills receive a lot more information than they give off. Everywhere in or connected to the neocortex of brain receives more than it sends.

[Totally Guy]

Derren Brown did an experiment on this.

He had David Tennant and a few others trapped in a room with lots of interesting objects.

A sign came on saying "Score 100 points to win £500!"

With no other clues the the participants started rearranging the furniture and interacting with the objects.

In actuality points were scored whenever a goldfish swam past a line its tank.

But the players thought their actions were scoring the points. So they became fixated on that.

Nobody noticed the sign on the ceiling that said, "Leave through the side door to win £10,000!"


In the same episode there was a girl that was very superstitious and Derren kept tricking her into doing unlucky things, like breaking mirrors and walking under ladders and she was freaking out. But then he had her play a roulette thing and she won the top prize!

Unfortunately she died shortly after filming.

[Ravens_cry]

Nobody noticed the sign on the ceiling that said, "Leave through the side door to win £10,000!"
Thanks for the tip.



In the same episode there was a girl that was very superstitious and Derren kept tricking her into doing unlucky things, like breaking mirrors and walking under ladders and she was freaking out. But then he had her play a roulette thing and she won the top prize!

Unfortunately she died shortly after filming.
*blink*
Source please.

[Rutskarn]

I firmly believe that you can detect demons by spitting straight upwards. You know there's one up there if he shoots at you.

[Totally Guy]

*blink*
Source please.

Here's the episode on youtube but it's through "4oD" so I don't know if it hits you with a regional restriction. Skip to the end :D

Oh, it was just a joke.:smallredface: