Is It Possible to Change The Future In OOTS-World? [Archive]

ThePhantasm

2011-02-28, 03:06 PM

This isn't a will-Belkar-live-or-die thread. This is just a question of curiosity.

Are the Oracle's predictions written in stone? Or can the predicted future be changed? The Oracle gives his predictions as if they are irreversible, but when he makes predictions about his own life, he takes the necessary steps to ensure that it will work out for his well-being. For example, the Oracle knew that Belkar would kill him, so a) founded Lickmyorangeballshalfling and b) arranged for a resurrection. One could say the future was always that way, and so he was destined to found the city and arrange for the resurrection, but that leads to a weird free will / destiny paradox that just makes no sense whatsoever. His decisions seem reactionary. Thus, it would seem the point of the predictions is to help make decisions either to further or to try to prevent / minimize the predicted events.

The Oracle gets his info from a divine source, but his god is not omniscient, i.e. Tiamat doesn't know what the other pantheons are up to and a lot of other bits of info that would be useful for making an accurate prediction.

Finally, what's the point of giving the info at all if it can't be changed?

I don't know D&D well enough to know how those rules would factor into this or anything of the sort. Perhaps for a prediction to be defeated you have to have something huge and unexpected happen - i.e. little pebbles into the stream won't alter the course of fate, but a boulder will.

A further question - did the Oracle know that the Black Dragon would be killed by her encounter with V? Did his gods know? Tiamat seemed surprised / angry.

I guess the point of all this is simply to say: I don't trust the Oracle at all, and I'm wondering what you all think.

Please as always keep discussions of real-world religion out of this. . . let's just discuss how time / fate / predictions etc. work in the OOTS world (which may not follow D&D closely on this either...).

Squark

2011-02-28, 03:18 PM

We don't know exactly how clearly the Oracle sees the future.

Beyond that, we simply don't know, I'm afraid. This could very easily devolve into rampant speculation that depends entirely on where you place the emphasis in one particular sentence- Which is pretty typical for these boards, frankly.

QDI

2011-02-28, 03:22 PM

Interesting questions!

Two points in my opinion:

1/ The oracle surely twists a bit his answers.

2/ I see his answers as "The future as it should be depending on what a god know and the current state of the world".

If conditions change, the prediction might become wrong.

To take a stupid example: if Belkar decided to stop killing people and entered a monastery (probably because of an Owl's wisdom spell!), he wouldn't die soon.

Another example: Tiamat didn't know about the possibility that the IFCC helps Vaarsuvius.

EDIT: this is actually "rampant speculation" nut kinda classical I guess.

ThePhantasm

2011-02-28, 03:54 PM

We don't know exactly how clearly the Oracle sees the future.

Thanks for summing up my original post in one comment.

That's kinda the point - why trust the Oracle? Everyone seems to take his word as an infallible indicator of what will be - both inside and outside the comic. The Order does it. Commenters on the forums do it.

Just because we don't know, however, doesn't mean we can't discuss it using what we do know. We aren't totally left in the dark on this. Also, there is a difference between "clearly seeing" the future and "the future being set in stone." The Oracle may or may not see the future clearly. The question is: can it be changed?

It could devolve into rampant speculation. But there's plenty of stuff to talk about in the Oracle strips. I don't think it needs to devolve into that. I understand your frustration with some forum threads, but give me a break here. I think this is a pretty interesting topic.

For example, in comic #331 (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0331.html) the Oracle tries to get Roy to ask his question differently, and then says "fine, well its not my fault if the plot sequence gets screwed up." That seems to indicate that the future could have turned out differently if Roy had simply asked the question differently. That is, the future is not set in stone.

factotum

2011-02-28, 04:20 PM

The Oracle arranging for a favourable outcome isn't changing the fact that he got killed painfully by Belkar, though! If it were possible to change the future then you'd think he'd have arranged to not be in when Belkar and the others came back--the simple fact he was still there indicates that the future as seen by the Oracle is immutable and cannot be changed. (And you'll note that his NEXT predicted death, as mentioned to the Lizard Twins, involves getting torn to pieces by an enraged shapechanged druid--once again, he would presumably avoid that if he could...).

Turk

2011-02-28, 04:28 PM

Everyone believes the oracle because he has yet to have been proven wrong. Belkar killed him, he gave Roy and Durkon Xykons location, told V how to become powerful, and told Haley how to get her voice back. It's even quite likely he'll wind up at Girard's Gate next plot wise as that's where the order is now.

veti

2011-02-28, 04:34 PM

That's kinda the point - why trust the Oracle? Everyone seems to take his word as an infallible indicator of what will be - both inside and outside the comic. The Order does it. Commenters on the forums do it.

That's fairly typical for oracles. They make their predictions, leaving no room for doubt or error (but absolutely acres of space for "interpretation", which will invariably conclude that "good lord, they were right all along, who'd've thought it!!")... and both protagonists and audience develop some sort of blind spot where they forget that they're talking about the future here.

It's a literary convention. There are a few phrases that pretty much short-circuit normal critical faculties. "Ask the Oracle" is one of them. ("I am your father/rightful king/creator/grand high poohbah" would be another.) From the moment someone says that, it's as if a completely different perception filter gets applied to whatever happens next.

Sometimes characters will realise that they can, in fact, change the future, and this will hit them as some kind of great revelation at a critical moment. But of course they wouldn't have needed that revelation, if they hadn't swallowed the whole "oracle" concept to begin with.

Having said that...

For example, in comic #331 (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0331.html) the Oracle tries to get Roy to ask his question differently, and then says "fine, well its not my fault if the plot sequence gets screwed up." That seems to indicate that the future could have turned out differently if Roy had simply asked the question differently. That is, the future is not set in stone.

There is surely a long debate about predestination waiting to happen here. Let me try to bypass some of it:

Coming back to real life for a moment: you can't, in fact, change the future, because "change" requires a starting point, and that doesn't exist yet. The Oracle creates a starting point for the future, which means that the question "can you change the future?" now has meaning. But the rules that apply to the Stickverse, whatever they may be, cannot be deduced by any amount of philosophy from real life, because we don't have oracles in reality.

Kish

2011-02-28, 05:58 PM

The Oracle hasn't been wrong yet.

Will he be? Personally, I doubt it.

Are there more details to figure out? I kind of doubt that too, to be honest, in the "Rich Burlew has put that much thought into the meta-mechanics of the Oracle's prophecies" way.

NerfTW

2011-02-28, 06:49 PM

I think it's entirely possible that he sees more of an "all possible paths" type of vision, which can be influenced by his answers. Out of those paths, he knows what is most likely, and that some events are unavoidable. And since his answers influence the client's actions, he can narrow it down even further.

Since he spends his time in a tower away from people, he knows his knowledge of the future won't influence anyone beyond questions asked by clients. So, for instance, he knows Belkar will return at some point and kill him, or that the druid will ask about his wife, because no other answers he gave would influence that. And even if they did, it's quite possible that he plans for EVERY possible death, simply dismissing the cleric if necessary.

Makeitstop

2011-02-28, 08:42 PM

The mechanics of his abilities are not clearly explained, but in general, there a few logical ways to approach the whole "I can see the future" thing.

Now, first, there's all the fake options:

He doesn't see the future, he get's a message from an other worldly being which is really just trying to influence things or sharing it's plans. This is the "divine to do list" option.

He doesn't see the actual future, he sees the present and calculates odds or extrapolates possible futures or some such nonsense. This is the "vegas" option.

He doesn't see our future, sees the future of an alternate reality. This is the "twilight zone" option.

He doesn't see the actual future, he sees a future, but by seeing it, he responds to it and it ceases to be. This is the "meta-time" option.

Now, there is also the legit future seeing option. Logically, anyone who sees the future cannot change what he sees. If they change it, they would not have seen it in the first place, or it would not have been the future.

The implication here is not so much that you have no choice, but rather that if you see something, it is because by the time that future comes around, you did not exercise a choice that alters it despite your knowledge of the future.

So what good is it? Well, you may not be able to see the things you would change, but you can change the things around what you see, as the oracle does.

And if you are particularly desperate, keep in mind that you can always try to make what you see happen in such a way that it only looks like a bad thing but is not. For example, if you see yourself getting shot, figure out when it happens, and arrange for a reenactment of the scene using blanks and squibs. I can just picture it now, a guy sees his own death, writes his autobiography, it gets turned into a movie which ends with him getting shot, which is what he actually saw.

Herald Alberich

2011-02-28, 08:59 PM

I think that everything the Oracle sees about the future is set in stone. I don't think he sees everything in the future, though. I mean, look at his very first line:

"Geez, I can peer into the murky depths of the future, and yet I always seem to get interrupted during bath time." (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0329.html)

It seems like he can see any answer to a question he's asked, plus a random smattering of whatever other information is useful/plot-relevant/funny. Everything else he plans off of that. When he knows he's going to die, he plans to get raised, and revenge. When he knows he'll have a ghost haunting him, he acquires a wand of Dismissal. When he knows Xykon is headed to Azure City, he tries to get Roy to ask the right question to reveal that info.

But he can't see everything, or at least not all at once. The info seems to come to him as he speaks, again, for the humor value. And he can't change what he sees, so he has to be around to get killed by Belkar and the druid, but is able to get scarce when Xykon shows up.

Edit:

So what good is it? Well, you may not be able to see the things you would change, but you can change the things around what you see, as the oracle does.

This was posted while I was typing, and it summarizes my point pretty well.

Swordpriest

2011-02-28, 09:07 PM

This kind of thread can start one heck of a heated philosophical argument. :smallwink:

My approach to it, for what it's worth, is that seeing the future lacks logic even more than throwing fireballs out of your fingertips. So I try not to think about it too much and accept it as an interesting part of the story without heavy analysis (which, IMO, only leads to frustration).

But, that's just my opinion.

MoonCat

2011-02-28, 09:16 PM

Herald Alberich

2011-02-28, 09:34 PM

Just like every future-teller in every story, they are always right. The future about can't be avoided, and the act of trying to avoid will bring it about anyway. Anyone heard about the man meeting Death in Psuedopolis?

Even the Oracle fell victim to that one. In trying to convince Belkar that his prophecy was already fulfilled, he pissed the halfling off enough to make with the stabbing.

Even though he knew Belkar would kill him, and built the village and scheduled the raise in response, he still tried to get out of it. And that's what got him killed. Funny.

MoonCat

2011-02-28, 09:42 PM

Even the Oracle fell victim to that one. In trying to convince Belkar that his prophecy was already fulfilled, he pissed the halfling off enough to make with the stabbing.

Even though he knew Belkar would kill him, and built the village and scheduled the raise in response, he still tried to get out of it. And that's what got him killed. Funny.

Yes. I think half the reason all prophecies are so vague is because the thing that is told will happen could happen in many ways. Since the bit that say how it'll happen isn't specified, it's impossible to avoid.

SPoD

2011-02-28, 10:00 PM

Makeitstop

2011-02-28, 10:09 PM

Part of it is also the fact that there is something deeply dissatisfying about a prophecy that doesn't come true.

When we, the audience, are told about a prophecy, it's sort of a promise that this thing will happen. If it doesn't we've been lied to. Oh, sure, a "prophecy" could have been a load of crap, but if it's sold to us as the real deal, backing out of it is very tricky. Usually it's easier to kind of fulfill a prophecy but not in the way we expect, or to fulfill it and then get out of it. The hero will die, but you aren't the hero. The hero will die, but we never said he'd stay dead.

This is of course, more about good story telling than logic.

Morgan Wick

2011-02-28, 10:36 PM

However, the Oracle is not omniscient; he isn't constantly looking forward all of the time. He can be fooled, simply by something happening that he never thought to look at. We know this because he didn't think to look forward and see if Roy's memory would be wiped when he banished him.

That's what Roy thinks. But I still subscribe to the theory that the Oracle sent him home intentionally because he had Ulterior Motives for him remembering everything.

KingFlameHawk

2011-02-28, 11:06 PM

Herald Alberich

2011-03-01, 02:18 AM

In this (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0330.html) strip the oracle tells Haley that he can see into the future to see War and XPs. That shows that really he doesn't see the future, he sees the plot. So when he sees what happens to Belkar he isn't seeing the future he is seeing the plot of the story and because of that I don't think there is any way of changing it. He isn't seeing what will happen but what has happened in the collected edition.

I considered that idea. I think that's part of it (he certainly breaks the fourth wall even more than average), but unless the scene of the Oracle getting ripped apart by a druid is still in a future strip, that can't be his only method of foresight.

Edit: Start of Darkness:
We never saw him get to 2nd base on his date, either, which he predicted. Not that we want to, I'm sure.

factotum

2011-03-01, 08:03 AM

I agree with Herald Alberich. The Oracle *has* foreseen things that haven't appeared in the strip, and are never likely to. He does seem to know some things "intuitively" without having to go into the trance or get asked a question, though--for instance, he knew Belkar would die soon without having to be asked, although I suppose that might have been purely because he knew Belkar was going to kill him next and he decided to find out what would happen to him afterward!

butterbow

2011-03-01, 09:07 AM

Some thing i want to throw into this discussion:

What if the oracle let himself kill by belkar deliberatly?

The oracle seems to me the kind of kobold who would face a painful death out of free will, just to get revenge on belkar. He was very unkind to the oracle at their first meeting plus really gruesome to every other kobold he met - wouldn't it be perfectly resonable to take the chance to get revenge, when you can get your resurection minutes after? The oracle doesn't leave his valley (because he would loose customers) so that was the only way for him to get the "in your face!" moment he clearly wanted.
Long text short: The oracle could have avoided his death, but didn't want to, because pissing Belkar off is a much bigger joy than the pain of dying. Plus it lasts longer.

Just a little thought.:smallcool:

Gnoman

2011-03-01, 09:50 AM

What I think he sees is the most likely event from the current state of the world that matches his query. For example, he queries Belkar's question about who he'll get to kill. He learns that it will most likely be the oracle, because the chances of him killing any of the others is remote. He then schedules the resurrection and builds the village, probably in a response to a more detailed query of his own. Note that the Oracle apparently sometimes cancels resurrections, as the clerics ask him if the schedule has changed. I suspect that he regularly queries "when will I next die?", and based on the information his deity has at the time, the situation changes. For example, the druid's animal companion is probably already sleeping with the druid's wife, so the only variables is how long it will take for the Druid to get suspicious enough to ask. This is reasonable for a god to be able to determine, I think.

TriForce

2011-03-01, 10:19 AM

most forumpeople here consider the oracle to be telling the absolute truth in all his predictions, mostly becouse storywise, they are supposed to be correct, one way or another.

personally, id be dissapointed if the oracle indeed turned out to be correct about everything, not only becouse it would mean belkars death is indeed unstoppable (as everyone assumes both in the comic and out) but also becouse the unfailable oracle is a really REALLY boring plotpiece, something that is done to death. For once , id love to hear a oracle make a prediction, see everyone assume its going to come true, and then see the prediction miss completly, leaving everyone thinking "huh?"

Dr.Epic

2011-03-01, 11:58 AM

You can't change the future. It's already happened.

ThePhantasm

2011-03-01, 01:46 PM

I'm thinking Dune is relevant here: The act of foreseeing the future locks it in. Once the Oracle looks forward into the future, that's what's GOING to happen. Anything he doesn't look at, though, is still in flux (at least as far as he knows)

However, the Oracle is not omniscient; he isn't constantly looking forward all of the time. He can be fooled, simply by something happening that he never thought to look at. We know this because he didn't think to look forward and see if Roy's memory would be wiped when he banished him.

And he can rig events in his favor by simply not looking at them first. He looked to see who Belkar would kill and saw that it was him, so he then took precautions to come back (and screw Belkar). He didn't try to stop it (not really) because he knew that was impossible. So he just did his best to make it work out anyway.

Basically, you can't change the future that the Oracle sees because there was never a version of the universe where the Oracle wasn't going to look at those events at that moment. Anything the people hearing about it would do to try to change it has already been factored into the future the Oracle is seeing.

SPoD, I like your analysis a lot. The Dune reference intrigues me especially. I think it works out very well as a theory of how the Oracle sees things and predicts things. On the Belkar note though, in order to "screw Belkar" he also had to look at least into the future enough to see that Belkar would receive the Mark of Justice, so that he could use that against him. He also gave a free prediction to the Order as soon as they showed up the first time that Belkar would die, meaning that he's been looking at Belkar's future quite a bit, possibly because of his kobold connections, which is interesting to think about as well. . . he seems pretty interested in Belkar's future at any rate.

For once , id love to hear a oracle make a prediction, see everyone assume its going to come true, and then see the prediction miss completly, leaving everyone thinking "huh?"

I'd actually like to see this too. Not in regards to Belkar's prophecy (which would be a cop out at this point) but perhaps in regard to something else.

"Geez, I can peer into the murky depths of the future, and yet I always seem to get interrupted during bath time." (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0329.html)

This is a great point as well. I had not remembered / considered that particular quote. That at least goes some way towards explaining how much the Oracle does and does not know.

Toper

2011-03-02, 12:32 AM

My own feeling is that trying to analyze the Oracle's powers and mechanics is an exercise in futility. He doesn't have mechanics. The reason his predictions can be infallible isn't because fate in OOTS-world is fixed and inevitable; maybe it is, maybe it isn't. The reason the Oracle can always be right is because the Giant can write the comic that way.

I mean this seriously. I don't think it's a coincidence that the Oracle continually breaks the fourth wall. The Oracle himself is a full-fledged character, but his power isn't really part of the regular order of things; it's a device for plot and comedy. Taking it seriously as an internally-consistent ability will lead only to paradox, confusion, "Why did he know this and not that?" questions with no good answers, and tears. (The same is true for one-offs like Haley's ability to enter the character page (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0649.html) or sense cutaway panels (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0602.html).)

personally, id be dissapointed if the oracle indeed turned out to be correct about everything, becouse the unfailable oracle is a really REALLY boring plotpiece, something that is done to death. For once , id love to hear a oracle make a prediction, see everyone assume its going to come true, and then see the prediction miss completly, leaving everyone thinking "huh?"
You'd better prepare for disappointment, then. Interesting storytelling requires rules, and all evidence so far points to the Oracle's infallibility being an ironclad one. If Roy suddenly could breathe fire, or Durkon converted Xykon to Thor, everyone would also think "huh?", because that would be stupid. Same goes if the Oracle was wrong for no reason.

I like it as a storytelling device -- it constrains the tale, gives the reader something to hang onto and theorize about, and provides evidence that the author has planned ahead, that the story elements are going somewhere, while leaving plenty of room for unexpected developments during the journey.

MesiDoomstalker

2011-03-02, 02:24 AM

You'd better prepare for disappointment, then. Interesting storytelling requires rules, and all evidence so far points to the Oracle's infallibility being an ironclad one. If Roy suddenly could breathe fire, or Durkon converted Xykon to Thor, everyone would also think "huh?", because that would be stupid. Same goes if the Oracle was wrong for no reason.

We are forgetting about the Snarl. We don't exactly know what kind of powers it has and what influence it has on oots universe with its prison slowly failing. It is possible that Belkar's exposure to the Snarl, however limited, could change or alter a prediction that was formed by a god. A god, mind you, that the Snarl can easily kill with little effort. It could easily have enough power to alter the future. It can undue reality so its perfectly reasonable that a limited scope of reality altering could alter the future.

ThePhantasm

2011-03-03, 02:31 PM

Someone just mentioned something else interesting in another thread - Belkar doesn't know about the prophecy. He doesn't know that he is going to die. Roy knows, and Haley knows, but not Belkar.

If Belkar knew, would that change anything? Would there be the possibility of him changing anything?

i.e. why doesn't Roy tell Belkar? Granted, he isn't required to, and maybe he just doesn't think it matters anyway whether he knows or not. From a storytelling standpoint, I just think it is interesting that Belkar doesn't know. In the dream-metaphor terms, he still thinks he is playing the game, whereas everyone else is getting ready to kick him away from the table.

Gnoman

2011-03-03, 02:52 PM

If belkar knew he was about to die permanently, the phrase "point toward enemy" would lose meaning. He'd probably take out Elan and V before Roy could bring him down.

Zevox

2011-03-03, 06:13 PM

This isn't a will-Belkar-live-or-die thread. This is just a question of curiosity.

Are the Oracle's predictions written in stone? Or can the predicted future be changed? The Oracle gives his predictions as if they are irreversible, but when he makes predictions about his own life, he takes the necessary steps to ensure that it will work out for his well-being. For example, the Oracle knew that Belkar would kill him, so a) founded Lickmyorangeballshalfling and b) arranged for a resurrection. One could say the future was always that way, and so he was destined to found the city and arrange for the resurrection, but that leads to a weird free will / destiny paradox that just makes no sense whatsoever. His decisions seem reactionary. Thus, it would seem the point of the predictions is to help make decisions either to further or to try to prevent / minimize the predicted events.
On the other hand, if he could change the future that way, why not simply avoid being killed at all? Why, for instance, was not simply "out" when Haley and Belkar came to see him? And why will he be telling that Druid that his wife is cheating on him with his animal companion if he knows it will get him killed? If he could do that, he'd avoid a great deal of pain and the costs, in money and xp, of the resurrection.

Seems the only way it makes sense is if the future cannot be changed, and the Oracle's setting up of resurrections is just as set in stone as everything else.

Finally, what's the point of giving the info at all if it can't be changed?
Foreshadowing, of course.

Zevox

veti

2011-03-03, 07:28 PM

On the other hand, if he could change the future that way, why not simply avoid being killed at all? Why, for instance, was not simply "out" when Haley and Belkar came to see him?

Terry Pratchett's character, Mrs Cake (http://wiki.lspace.org/wiki/Evadne_Cake), often "leaves her precognition switched on" and finds herself holding conversations in the wrong order, i.e. she'll reply before the other person speaks. She often complains that if the other person then doesn't say what they were going to, it gives her a terrible headache.

So in her case, at least, the future can be changed, but with a bad consequence for the person who foretold it.

Just mentioning, because it seems to me there are a lot of possibilities that just aren't being considered in this thread. There's no shortage of stories in which prophecies are averted (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ScrewDestiny) one way or another.

Zevox

2011-03-03, 07:42 PM

Just mentioning, because it seems to me there are a lot of possibilities that just aren't being considered in this thread. There's no shortage of stories in which prophecies are averted (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ScrewDestiny) one way or another.
The difference being that all evidence that we have so far points towards that not being the case in this story/world, and as such examples of other stories and settings where that can be done don't actually mean anything here.

Zevox