Zz'dtri vs. V: Bets and Speculations [Archive] - Giant in the Playground Forums

Neutral Evil

2011-05-01, 07:40 AM

Surprisingly, no one to my knowledge made a thread about the battle between the dark elf mage and the elven wizard. So, here's one! :smallbiggrin: Devoted to:

A) Placing bets on who will win - Z or V!

B) Speculations on how the battle may progress, both mechanic-wise and plot-wise!

Contestants:

:vaarsuvius:Vaarsuvius
Elf Wizard 15
Details:
Non-evil (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0664.html) alignment (Neutral on the Good/Evil Axis (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0633.html)), Elven (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0030.html) Ambiguously Gendered Wizard (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0009.html) 15 (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0716.html)
Attributes (12 pt buy min):
Str ≤9 ("I have a Strength penalty (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0245.html)")
Dex 10-11 (“no real attack bonus” on rays*)
Con ≤12 (consistent with Giant's description of Miko fight*)
Int 23, 19 unmodified (based on spells cast and limits thereof (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0627.html))
Wis 10-12 ("moderate wisdom"*)
Cha 6-9 (can return as a ghost (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0163.html) with "poor charisma"*)
Feats (11): AlertnessB (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0003.html), Empower Spell (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0588.html), Martial Weapon ProficiencyB (composite longbow, composite shortbow, longbow, longsword, rapier, shortbow and shortsword), Maximiz Spell, Quicken Spell (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0588.html), Scribe ScrollB... Not Silent Spell* or Still Spell (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0161.html)
Skills (97): Concentrate (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0041.html)≤15, Craft (Alchemy), Knowledge (Arcane), Listen (+2), Ride 0 (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0141.html), Spot (+2), Search 0 (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0030.html) (+2), +3 to Appraise ChecksB, Speak language (elven), Spellcraft...
Abilities: +2 v enchantment, Barred school (Conjuration (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0340.html) and Necromancy), Specialized school (Evocation), Favored class (wizard), Immune to sleep, Low-light vision, Summon familiar (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0003.html)...
Items: Headband of Intellect +4 (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0627.html) (based on Intelligence calculations), Ring of Wizardry (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0130.html) (affects level ≥3 spells (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0323.html)), robes (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0186.html), many (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0173.html) spellbooks, ink, paper (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0306.html), two small gemstones (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0123.html), some item that increases Intelligence by at least 4*, Finding Plot Holes for Dummies (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0623.html), nine books of unknown title (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0623.html), jar of diamond dust (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0679.html). No potions or scrolls (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0452.html)...
Spells (per day -- 4+1 6+1 6+1 5+1 5+1 5+1 4+1 2+1 1+1): Arcane Eye (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0693.html), Banishment (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0585.html), Bull's Strength (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0104.html), Bugsby's Cat-Retrieving Hand (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0781.html), Bugsby's Expressive Single Digit, Bugsby's Flicking Finger, Bugsby's Grasping Hand (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0624.html), Chain Lightning (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0106.html), Charm Monster (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0335.html), Cone of Cold (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0041.html), Crushing Despair (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0127.html), Detect Magic (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0116.html), Dimensional Anchor (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0624.html), Disintegrate (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0186.html), Dispel Magic (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0049.html), Evan's Spiked Tentacles of Forced Intrusion (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0020.html), Expeditious Retreat (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0005.html), Explosive Runes (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0092.html), Feather Fall (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0240.html), Fireball (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0020.html), Fire Trap (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0323.html), Forcecage (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0627.html), Fly (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0507.html), Grasping Hand (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0397.html), Gust of Wind (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0595.html), Haste (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0684.html), Heroism (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0684.html), Hold Person (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0200.html), Hold Portal (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0178.html), Identify (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0009.html), Invisibility (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0157.html), discount Invisibility Sphere (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0088.html), Lightning Bolt (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0020.html), Magic Missile (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0065.html), Mass Bear's Endurance (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0427.html). Mass Bull's Strength (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0427.html), Mass Enlarge Person (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0427.html), Owl's Wisdom (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0058.html), Polymorph (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0697.html), Power Word Blind (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0306.html), Power Word Stun (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0716.html), Prestidigitation (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0323.html), Prismatic Spray (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0591.html), Protection From Arrows (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0240.html), Scorching Ray (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0065.html), See Invisibility (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0624.html), Sending (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0630.html), Sleep (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0065.html), Suggestion (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0178.html), True Seeing (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0691.html), Vaarsuvius' Enhanced Scrying (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0504.html), Vaarsuvius' Greater Animal Messenger (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0563.html), Vampiric Touch (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0049.html), Veil (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0584.html)...

http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/6766/familierbn5.pngBlackwing
True Neutral Male Tiny Magical Beast (Raven), 14 HD (1/2 of V's hp)
Attributes:
Str 1 (raven)
Dex 15 (raven)
Con 10 (raven)
Int 13 (raven, 15th level wizard's familiar)
Wis 14 (raven)
Cha 6 (raven)
Feats: Alertness (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0003.html), Weapon FinesseB
Skills (Blackwing uses V's skill ranks, unless Blackwing's ranks are higher): Concentration, Craft (Alchemy), Knowledge (Arcane), Listen +5, Speak language (Common, Elven), Spellcraft, Spot +7
Abilities: Deliver touch spells, empathic link, improved evasion, low-light vision, share spells, speak with master, speak with birds, spell resistance 19, +7 to natural armor
Items: bauble (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0679.html), and tiny sombrero, fake beard and mustache (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0679.html)

Cannibalized from Class & Level Geekery (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?t=131219)

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png Zz'dtri
Male Drow, Wizard 11+
Details:
Transmuter (Cast six Fly spells in one day), barred schools (two of: Conjuration, Enchantment, Illusion, Necromancy)
Str ~10 (No Evidence)
Dex ~12 (No Evidence, Racial)
Con ~8 (No Evidence, Racial)
Int 16+ (Minimum to cast Flesh to Stone (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0053.html))
Wis ~ 10(No Evidence)
Cha ~12 (No Evidence, Racial)
Feats: Improved Familiar (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0790.html), Still Spell (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0065.html), Silent Spell (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0065.html)
Skills:
Items: Spellbook, Pair of scimitars
Spells: Flesh to Stone (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0053.html), Fly (3.0 version) (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0049.html), Shield (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0065.html), Wall of Ice (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0057.html), Unspecified attack spell (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0065.html) characterized by green lightning.

Familiar:
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y281/SGdentarthurdent/qarr.gif Qarr
Lawful (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0634.html) Evil (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0668.html) Imp (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0555.html) Male, Outsider, Sorcerer (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0625.html) 8+
Attributes:
Str ~10 (No Evidence, Racial Modifiers)
Dex ~17 (No Evidence, Racial Modifiers)
Con ~10 (No Evidence, Racial Modifiers)
Int ~10 (No Evidence, Racial Modifiers)
Wis ~12 (No Evidence, Racial Modifiers)
Cha 14+ (Needed to cast 4th-level spells)
Feats: Dodge, Weapon Finesse
Skills: Unknown
Abilities: Poison, detect good, detect magic, invisibility (self only) (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0624.html), suggestion 1/day, commune 1/week, telepathy (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0503.html), damage reduction 5/good or silver (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0555.html), summon devil (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0584.html), fast healing (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0627.html), capable of teleporting self and 50 pounds of unliving material (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0630.html), Plane Shift (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0637.html)
Items: None
Known Spells: Charm Monster (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0559.html)[/QUOTE]

Mostly cannibalized from Class & Level Geekery (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?t=131219)

_________________

SURPRISE ROUND

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png casts Flesh to Stone (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/fleshToStone.htm) on :haley:

:haley: fails Fortitude save and is turned to stone!

:elan: is surprised (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/combat/initiative.htm):smalleek:!

:vaarsuvius: is surprised (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/combat/initiative.htm):smallmad:!

_________________

ROUND 1

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png wins Initiative (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/combat/initiative.htm)

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png readies action (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/combat/specialInitiativeActions.htm) to cast lighting spell on :vaarsuvius: (condition: movement or casting a spell)

:vaarsuvius: casts Fly (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/fly.htm) and moves next to http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png

Stupid action right there as he might have simply blasted Zz'dtri from the ground! V is his old http://forum.mymcomm.net/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/facepalm.gif self

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png casts lighting spell (likely Lightning Bolt (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/lightningBolt.htm), since Chain Lightning (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/chainLightning.htm) would also have affected Elan).

:vaarsuvius: takes damage!

Damage calculation:

Since http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.pnghas at least caster level 11, the Lightning bolt would do 10d6 = 35 average Electricity damage. Seeing how :vaarsuvius: winces, likely he failed the Reflex save (fits with his known low Dex and Wizard class) and takes full damage. Considering V has from 39 to 54 average hitpoints (either 10 or 12 Con), even if there are also magic items with enhancement bonus to Con, this attack still takes a huge chunk of his hp.

:vaarsuvius: casts Shrink Item (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/shrinkItem.htm) from a scroll

:vaarsuvius: casts Quickened Haste (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/haste.htm)

http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/6766/familierbn5.png is summoned

:elan: moves

_________________

ROUND 2

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png readies action again? (?)

:vaarsuvius: moves up to Z again

Yukyuk on his mount Sir Scraggly enters the fray and attacks V! (another readied action?)

Damage calculation:

Two small hand crossbows (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/equipment/weapons.htm#crossbowHand): base damage 1d3; both bolts hit V for average 4 piercing damage (likely more, however, since if Yukyuk is any match for Belkar, his weapons would be enchanted etc.)

:vaarsuvius: casts Stoneskin (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/stoneskin.htm)

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y281/SGdentarthurdent/qarr.gif is summoned

Status at end of #790: it is now Z's turn
_______________

What will happen next? Your predictions!

Who will win and how? Your bets!

Z's big edge is his racial Spell Resistance, affording him a roughly 50% chance to avoid being affected by a spell cast by an equal-level spellcaster.

V's edge is extra 2 levels of Wizard (assuming Z is ECL 15 and didn't buy off his LA). But, with V being what he is http://forum.mymcomm.net/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/facepalm.gif, will he be able to translate this advantage into victory? Your call!

My speculations:

Z's Spell Resistance will come into play at least once;

:elan: will cast Break Enchantment (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/breakEnchantment.htm) on :haley: (assuming it works against Flesh to Stone);

:vaarsuvius: will showcase his new tactics, and despite the initial setbacks and struggles will play a pivotal role in overcoming Z or at least escaping without losses;

the Linear Guild has a plot going beyond a surprise attack on Elan;

there will be at least one unexpected plot turn that will catch most of us by surprise! :smalleek::smallwink:

____________

Results so far:

- Da'Shain likely correctly predicted that Z readied the lightning against V;

- we've had an unexpected plot twist that caught us by surprise: Qarr is now Zz'dtri's familiar!

- apparently Elan didn't bother to learn Break Enchantment. This makes it highly improbable that he will ever cast it to revert Haley back to normal (although it's still possible).

HalfDragonCube

2011-05-01, 11:50 AM

Awesome post. I'm rooting for Zz'dtri but since V is a protagonist then chances are he will win, or at least escape alive.

Morph Bark

2011-05-01, 11:54 AM

Awesome post. I'm rooting for Zz'dtri but since V is a protagonist then chances are he will win, or at least escape alive.

I second this. Z's appearance here may have constituted only one strip so far under his true guise, with several under his disguise, but I'm liking it a lot more than the first time already, as it is much more characterizing and in a better way as well, avoiding clichés (and copyright infringement).

ThePhantasm

2011-05-01, 12:25 PM

I second this. Z's appearance here may have constituted only one strip so far under his true guise, with several under his disguise, but I'm liking it a lot more than the first time already, as it is much more characterizing and in a better way as well, avoiding clichés (and copyright infringement).

Um. . . how? He's barely uttered three sentences. We have no more insight into his character now than we did before the lawyers dragged him away.

Da'Shain

2011-05-01, 12:36 PM

Pure speculation on my part ...

First, my instinct would be that V has not yet used his entire Round 1 action and that he moved before Zz'dtri's first attack only for dramatic purposes. It seems unlikely that V would go any day without casting Overland Flight in the morning, so the likelihood of him casting Fly on himself first thing seems to be virtually nil. His hands glowing with his customary magic color are simply his DBZ powerup animation, and next comic will feature him attacking before Zz'ditri gets another attack.

Second, considering his abyssmal failure against Zz'dtri the first time, I would also hazard a guess that he's taken at least some ability which increases his chance to overcome spell resistance. Of course, considering his Prismatic Spray apparently failed to overcome the ABD's SR (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0627.html), this might be a poor assumption ... or it might simply reflect a penalty to all his checks from having not slept for months. You're probably right, though, that Zz'dtri's SR will come into play at least once.

As for actual actions:

You're almost certainly right on Elan's attempt to Break Enchantment, although according to the Geekery thread we don't know that he actually has that spell. If he doesn't, I'd guess that he either attempts to heal Varsuuvius (for probably a paltry 10 or 20 HP but still better than nothing) or tries to cast his Lesser Confusion spell that worked so well on Enor earlier, and V berates him for choosing a spell that fails on so many levels: it allows Zz'dtri's SR to come into play AND targets his highest save AND that all elves have a bonus to saving against AND is a level 1 spell and thus ridiculously easy to save against anyway.

Once V actually has a chance to go again, I predict that instead of going for his usual "blast it until it dies" strategy, one which the LG has likely prepared for like Leeky did last time, he'll lead off with something designed to immobilize or cripple Zz'dtri, like Grasping Hand or either of the two Power Words he knows (Blind and Stun).

Of course, this is probably where Nale or Sabine or both jump in and make this a true Evil Opposites fight once more. I doubt it'll end up being the three of them against Zz'dtri by himself.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-01, 01:41 PM

Um. . . how? He's barely uttered three sentences. We have no more insight into his character now than we did before the lawyers dragged him away.

He's now a character in his own right, and not merely a Driz'zt parody.

Also, his entrance was both dramatic and foreshadowed, and his combat performance so far is commendable.

Finally, he's an evil Dark Elf wizard! What's not to like? :smallbiggrin:

Lateral

2011-05-01, 01:54 PM

Ikialev

2011-05-01, 01:58 PM

V will win because it's a PC. Simple as that.

Da'Shain

2011-05-01, 02:01 PM

Well, Zz'dtri just went, so V goes next. If V prepared any Disintegrates today and is even slightly competent, ze'll use it. The two are both wizards and both running on full; if V prepared any Fortitude save-targeting SoDs, Z is dead. Given zir recent change of heart, it's possible ze didn't prepare any, but I doubt it since he still likes to have a panic button (like in that comic with the bug guys and all of the puns). From a mechanical standpoint, V will win.Again, I wouldn't be so sure that a Disintegrate is the way to go here. The Linear Guild has plenty of information on how the Order fights and have most likely been planning this for quite a while, considering that they knew the Order was coming almost 100 strips ago (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0698.html). V's first action has pretty much always been to blast away at things he doesn't like, and the likelihood of Zz'dtri going in with absolutely no preparation against such tactics is not very high at all. Blasting first might lose them this fight, not win it, and I think we'll see V's new outlook being used to great effect and causing the LG's plans to go at least a little awry.

I'd actually guess that this is why Zz'dtri didn't open with the Flesh to Stone on V, not Haley assuming it wasn't simply a desire for V to be conscious when (s)he's beaten: a Wizard is likely to have at least some contingencies and defenses in place at all times, and he didn't want to waste a surprise round on a spell that might prove totally ineffectual.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-01, 02:08 PM

Pure speculation on my part ...

Awesome analysis, BTW!

First, my instinct would be that V has not yet used his entire Round 1 action and that he moved before Zz'dtri's first attack only for dramatic purposes.

No; Zz'dtri casted a spell after V moved, therefore V's turn ended. I.e. V effectively wasted his turn by casting Fly, which he didn't even need to do. Alternatively, if he was already capable of flying, he just wasted a turn doing nothing (which is probably too stupid even for V, although...)

It seems unlikely that V would go any day without casting Overland Flight in the morning

With V, you've got to learn that no stupidity is impossible :smallfrown: Notice how he never used Permanency (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/permanency.htm), for instance. But, there is of course some hope that V finally learns some proper wizarding tactics!

Second, considering his abyssmal failure against Zz'dtri the first time, I would also hazard a guess that he's taken at least some ability which increases his chance to overcome spell resistance. Of course, considering his Prismatic Spray apparently failed to overcome the ABD's SR (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0627.html), this might be a poor assumption ...

The ABD supposedly had SR 25 (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/monsters/dragonTrue.htm). Assuming 13 class levels (ECL 15), as a Drow (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/monsters/elf.htm) Z would have SR 24. So yeah - about the same as the Ancient Black Dragon! As a 15th level Wizard, V would have to roll 9 or higher on a d20 to beat Z's SR. This translates into a 60% chance of success. If V took Spell Penetration (+2 vs. SR), it turns into 70%. Still, he'd fail about 1/3 of the time.

You're almost certainly right on Elan's attempt to Break Enchantment, although according to the Geekery thread we don't know that he actually has that spell.

He has at least 2 unknown 4th level spells, and judging from his favor towards support and healing spells (Cure wounds, Neutralize poison, Greater Dispel Magic) it's quite likely that he has it. Also, for plot dynamic purposes having another party member taken out of the game so soon after the gang's reunited would be really lame.

If he doesn't, I'd guess that he either attempts to heal Varsuuvius (for probably a paltry 10 or 20 HP but still better than nothing)

Good call - he does have all those minor healing spells.

or tries to cast his Lesser Confusion spell that worked so well on Enor earlier, and V berates him for choosing a spell that fails on so many levels: it allows Zz'dtri's SR to come into play AND targets his highest save AND that all elves have a bonus to saving against AND is a level 1 spell and thus ridiculously easy to save against anyway.

:smallbiggrin: An excellent opportunity to showcase Z's SR, BTW.

Once V actually has a chance to go again, I predict that instead of going for his usual "blast it until it dies" strategy, one which the LG has likely prepared for like Leeky did last time, he'll lead off with something designed to immobilize or cripple Zz'dtri, like Grasping Hand or either of the two Power Words he knows (Blind and Stun).

Good call! But trouble with those spells is - they all allow SR. Since every round may be the last for V, given his damaged health, taking chances seems dangerous, and the best bet is to use a no-save, no-SR spell that would preclude Z's spellcasting.

Banned Conjuration means no Orbs or Black Tentacles, but V does have something akin to Black Tentacles - the Forced Intrusion ones. With Z's likely low STR, a grappling attack is exactly what he needs.

Morph Bark

2011-05-01, 02:08 PM

Um. . . how? He's barely uttered three sentences. We have no more insight into his character now than we did before the lawyers dragged him away.

Count how many times he has spoken before he was dragged off. It's still significantly less, if you discount verbal components of spells and the constant "no"-saying to V's asking if he could copy Z's Fly spell.

ThePhantasm

2011-05-01, 02:12 PM

Count how many times he has spoken before he was dragged off. It's still significantly less, if you discount verbal components of spells and the constant "no"-saying to V's asking if he could copy Z's Fly spell.

Just talking doesn't count as characterization. Nor does being foreshadowed. It is possible that Rich is going to develop his character, but I think it is jumping the gun to say he has recieved "much more" characterization in one strip.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-01, 02:40 PM

If V prepared any Disintegrates today and is even slightly competent, ze'll use it.

Disintegrate allows both SR and a Fortitude save, and requires a ranged touch attack to hit.

Ranged touch attack:

:vaarsuvius: AB= +7 ("no real attack bonus" on rays)

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png Touch AC = at least +1 (Racial DEX bonus), likely higher (DEX, items, spells).

At the very least, V needs to roll 4 or higher. So, maximum 85% chance of success (if you ask me, likely it's really around 50-60% because Z probably has touch AC boosts).

Spell resistance:

V has about 60% chance to beat Z's SR, unless he took Spell Penetration (in which case it's 70%).

Saving throw:

V's DC = 10 + 7 (Spell level) +6 (Int bonus) = 23
Z's base Fort save is +4, -1 Racial (-2 Con), = +3 without any magic items. Z will save on a natural 20. Still, it's a 5% chance.

Summing up, V's Disintegrate will have about a 48% chance to succeed, even assuming Z doesn't have any magical or mundane (high stats) boosts to his touch AC and Fort save.

V, on the other hand, seems quite vulnerable to Z's energy attacks.

In a situation when Z's next spell may easily prove fatal, choosing a route with less than half chances of success doesn't seem the most efficient step.

But, V was always known for inefficiency :smallbiggrin:

Given zir recent change of heart, it's possible ze didn't prepare any, but I doubt it since he still likes to have a panic button (like in that comic with the bug guys and all of the puns).

How bout this:

V casts Tentacles of Forced intrusion (if they're like Evard's Black T-s, then no save and no SR for Z), effectively immobilizing Z and stripping him of spellcasting. Then, allies (notably Elan) subdue and capture Z. And the Order tries to learn about Nale's plan from the dark elf.

EVERYTHING

So you hate dark elves, and wizards, and evil? Hater :smallyuk: those are the best things D&D has to offer :smallbiggrin:

HalfDragonCube

2011-05-01, 02:53 PM

The Spiked Tentacles of Forced Intrusion would probably be the best way to go, but that may have been just a throwaway gag, since it has only ever been used once.

Lateral

2011-05-01, 03:08 PM

So you hate dark elves, and wizards, and evil? Hater :smallyuk: those are the best things D&D has to offer :smallbiggrin:

What, the best things in D&D are whiny emo races, overpowered classes, and bastards? Thanks, I'll pass. (I guess it comes down to opinion, though.)

I realize that it won't necessarily work due to SR, but I doubt that Z has any significant touch AC. There's no reason for him to have a DEX-increasing item- have you ever seen a wizard who blows money on those? He's INT-focused, his DEX isn't going to be insanely high, and we have no reason to believe that he's optimized his touch AC at all. Has V ever tried to use a Disintegrate when they're around? I don't think he has, so they don't have any reason to defend for it.

I suppose a Bugsby's Hand spell would probably work, though.

TreesOfDeath

2011-05-01, 03:25 PM

Nerd nitpick: Zz'dtri CANNOT have excluded Illusion, he cast Change Self. If that was lighitng bolt and if "unspecified attack spell" is evocation, that would mean his excluded schools are Necromancy and Enchatment.

In a straight 1-1 fight I'm pretty sure ZZ is a mroe powerful wizard. V might have learn something but mostly likely Elan is going to need to fetch someone, do some thing or reinforcmeents will arive. Altnetively this is the Act 2 thing where things go bad for the heroes and Roy and pals spend Act 3 fixing it.

sims796

2011-05-01, 03:55 PM

I'm not reading all of these posts, but place my bets on V. Elan is there, and while I'm not sure how much he can contribute, I'm sure he can do something.

Still, we're not sure what suprises Z has up his sleeve. I suspect Sabine is nearby, but that's only guessing at this point.

Da'Shain

2011-05-01, 04:18 PM

Awesome analysis, BTW!Thanks, glad you approve! You're obviously very knowledgeable about how such battles go.

No; Zz'dtri casted a spell after V moved, therefore V's turn ended. I.e. V effectively wasted his turn by casting Fly, which he didn't even need to do. Alternatively, if he was already capable of flying, he just wasted a turn doing nothing (which is probably too stupid even for V, although...)Again, I'm not contesting that V moved before Zz'dtri got his chance to cast another spell, I'm saying that this does not necessarily reflect the exact game order they're acting in, since we've seen actions taken more or less simultaneously or without response before. And I really don't think that V is stupid enough to waste his turn like that. I could buy him choosing an inappropriate attack spell as his first action, but there's no way he would be stupid enough to just cast Fly and move somewhere even closer to the just-appeared enemy, nor simply waste his turn using a move action and nothing else.

With V, you've got to learn that no stupidity is impossible :smallfrown: Notice how he never used Permanency (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/permanency.htm), for instance. But, there is of course some hope that V finally learns some proper wizarding tactics!TBH, Permanency is not that great an idea on their quest, because the endgame is a battle against an already extremely epic lich and they need all the levels they can get. The spells that you can cast Permanency on are, IMO at least, not worth it compared to the loss of XP, especially considering that V's low level spell slots are not being used for much that will be of use in combat against their now mid-to-high level foes.

Good call! But trouble with those spells is - they all allow SR. Since every round may be the last for V, given his damaged health, taking chances seems dangerous, and the best bet is to use a no-save, no-SR spell that would preclude Z's spellcasting.

Banned Conjuration means no Orbs or Black Tentacles, but V does have something akin to Black Tentacles - the Forced Intrusion ones. With Z's likely low STR, a grappling attack is exactly what he needs.Hence why my first suggestion was Grasping Hand, which is definitely on V's spell list and doesn't allow for SR at all. I suggested the Power Words because they have a better-than-half chance of success and would essentially render Zz'dtri useless, instead of allowing for the possibility of him still casting Stilled spells or those with no somatic components while in the grapple.

No, actually, nevermind, I've just rechecked and Grasping Hand does allow SR. That ... makes zero sense, but whatever. I still think if V tries to go direct damage, though, bad things will happen, because that's his known specialty.

I realize that it won't necessarily work due to SR, but I doubt that Z has any significant touch AC. There's no reason for him to have a DEX-increasing item- have you ever seen a wizard who blows money on those? He's INT-focused, his DEX isn't going to be insanely high, and we have no reason to believe that he's optimized his touch AC at all. Has V ever tried to use a Disintegrate when they're around? I don't think he has, so they don't have any reason to defend for it.They know that V's specialty is direct damage. The fact that they've never actually been present when he cast Disintegrate does not mean that they will not anticipate its usage. Heck, I'm surprised Zz'dtri didn't use it, considering he's apparently a Transmutation specialist; but whatever the reason, they would definitely know of the possibility, and they've had a long time to prepare.

Furthermore, we have no information on Zz'dtri's DEX whatsoever, other than that he has a +2 bonus to it. It's possible he has as few points as V ... and it's possible that he was actually proficieint in dual wielding those scimitars he carried in his first appearance, which would make his DEX significantly higher (unless he took 2 levels of ranger like Girard apparently did).

In a straight 1-1 fight I'm pretty sure ZZ is a mroe powerful wizard.Why? V almost certainly has a level or two on him due to the Drow level adjustment, and it's been established that very few wizards reach V's level. Plus, the highest level spell we've seen Zz'dtri cast is 6th so far, while we know that V can cast 8th level spells.

The Pilgrim

2011-05-01, 05:16 PM

Z's spell resistance means V is a gonner if she just engages in blast-to-blast combat.

On the other hand, V is likely to be higher caster level than Z (no proof about that, but Drows have a +2 Level Adjustment). That means she has access to more powerfull spells and a more spell slots. Which, in turn, means that she is likely to have some more diversity of prepared spells than Z.

If V wants to win this one, she has to rely on clever use of her magic, because that's the ground in which she has some advantage, and can clear the hurdle of Z's SR. Also, it's the kind of thing she was supposed to have learnt from her ordeal with Xykon.

In addition to the above, the fact that V has an ally on the scene should mean that Z is boned. However, since Elan's role in this webcomic is to be utterly useless, he is not likely to be able to help. Plus, he is likely going to be drawn into his own combat soon. However, it should be remembered also that Elan has proved to be effective with his bard magic when V has been around to command him in it's use - some illusions on V to make her harder to hit would level Z's SR advantage, for example.

Morph Bark

2011-05-01, 05:25 PM

Just talking doesn't count as characterization.

One of my favourite movies ever is just talking for a long time. I guess you'd say none of those characters had any characterization.

Dr.Epic

2011-05-01, 05:28 PM

Anyone else hope we see Z's familiar (if he has one)? I wonder what it could be...

zimmerwald1915

2011-05-01, 05:53 PM

Nerd nitpick: Zz'dtri CANNOT have excluded Illusion, he cast Change Self. If that was lighitng bolt and if "unspecified attack spell" is evocation, that would mean his excluded schools are Necromancy and Enchatment.
Actually, since Z's lightning is green, the color of his magic aura, and we know he didn't ban illusion, it's possible that the lightning we're seeing is a Shadow Evocation. Which could point to Z's banning the evocation school, but isn't evidence one way or the other.

Shadow Evocation also fits with the lack of the spell's name not being spoken when it was cast: it would certainly be awkward to include "Shadow evocation mimicing lightning bolt" in a speech bubble if Z wanted to say anything else (unlikely, I know), and would take up a lot of panel space. I know not all spells have their spell names spoken aloud when cast, but usually they do, and this one had no name spoken all (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0065.html) th (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0059.html)ree (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0789.html) times it's been cast, which is more rare than a simple one-off omission.

Da'Shain

2011-05-01, 05:55 PM

One of my favourite movies ever is just talking for a long time. I guess you'd say none of those characters had any characterization.I think he means that the simple fact a character has opened their mouth and said a few words doesn't make them important in any way.

Zz'dtri's few words do mark out one of his character traits, though: he's very closemouthed and rarely gives more than one or two word responses. He's the opposite of V, after all. Also, what he says tends to involve either flat statements of fact or cynical, malicious humor, hinting at a general lack of emotion beyond spite and contempt.

But I'd agree he's not exactly fleshed out.

NerfTW

2011-05-01, 06:12 PM

One of my favourite movies ever is just talking for a long time. I guess you'd say none of those characters had any characterization.

It's amazing how people can focus on one minor aspect of something and declare it the sole important factor.

I'm pretty sure that you wouldn't say a Beavis and Butthead cartoon is at all comparable to the characterization in a movie like "The Man From Earth", despite both basically involving people talking while sitting on a couch. Because obviously it's what's being said, how the characters are reacting, and a hundred other factors that count. And Z'ddtri still hasn't said anything beyond responding to direct questions.

G-Man Graves

2011-05-01, 06:47 PM

He has at least 2 unknown 4th level spells, and judging from his favor towards support and healing spells (Cure wounds, Neutralize poison, Greater Dispel Magic) it's quite likely that he has it. Also, for plot dynamic purposes having another party member taken out of the game so soon after the gang's reunited would be really lame.

As I recall (Can't be bothered digging up the strip), there was some minor surprise when Elan didn't "take another Illusion spell" for fourth level, which would fall in line with him using most illusion spells to date. There is also no evidence that he has Greater Dispel Magic, and I personally think it would be a bit against character. Finally, while it would serve no purpose to kill Haley, it would serve even less purpose to knock her out of the fight, just to be brought back next strip. Also, Elan's horror at her turning into a lawn ornament would indicate that he can't fix her.

zimmerwald1915

2011-05-01, 06:50 PM

There is also no evidence that he has Greater Dispel Magic
Yes there is. (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0647.html)

G-Man Graves

2011-05-01, 06:58 PM

Yes there is. (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0647.html)
Ah, my mistake. That still won't help Haley.

sims796

2011-05-01, 07:00 PM

The Pilgrim

2011-05-01, 07:06 PM

Anyone else hope we see Z's familiar (if he has one)? I wonder what it could be...

A black panther, of course. :smallbiggrin:

Calmness

2011-05-01, 07:10 PM

I'm rooting for the Drow because of the sexy haircut.

Dr.Epic

2011-05-01, 09:28 PM

I'm rooting for the Drow because of the sexy haircut.

You know Zz'dtri is a dude right?:smallconfused:

LOTRfan

2011-05-01, 10:29 PM

You know Zz'dtri is a dude right?:smallconfused:

... So? :smallconfused:

NerfTW

2011-05-01, 10:40 PM

... So? :smallconfused:

But everyone on the internets is a straight male, didn't you know?

LtNOWIS

2011-05-01, 11:19 PM

Couldn't V simply cast Grasping Hand, and then have Elan perform a quick coup de gras?

Granted, plot means it won't be that simple, but it seems like a good starting point.

MesiDoomstalker

2011-05-01, 11:31 PM

Couldn't V simply cast Grasping Hand, and then have Elan perform a quick coup de gras?

Granted, plot means it won't be that simple, but it seems like a good starting point.

No. Grasping hand grapples. It does not make the target helpless. Only a helpless target can be Coup de Grace'ed.

Forum Explorer

2011-05-01, 11:47 PM

Does V know silence? If so start with that.

TheSummoner

2011-05-02, 12:12 AM

I have never played D&D. All of my knowledge of it comes from webcomics and osmosis (spend enough time on these forums and you're guaranteed to pick up atleast a little). My prediction is purely based on a storytelling perspective.

V cannot win. Zz'dtri's appearance is the very first move the Linear Guild has made this time. (Thog's appearance doesn't count... Even if he hadn't been the champion, Roy and Belkar would've still been removed from the group. At best, it provided an opportunity for Zz'dtri to strike or forced him to make his move at that point.) The Linear Guild is not going to be defeated this quickly... Whether this means Nale, Sabine and any newcomers they may have picked up will join in, Zz'dtri will singlehandedly beat V and Elan, the IFCC will intervene to preserve their pawns (where my money is) or some other option I haven't anticipated, V and Elan are as good as defeated. They may be captured or they may escape, but they aren't going to win the fight. Haley won't be de-statued... Not until the fight is over anyways. The Linear Guild will likely take her hostage.

Lvl45DM!

2011-05-02, 02:01 AM

Elan is a high enough level bard to sing a song of freedom and free Haley

Ancalagon

2011-05-02, 02:30 AM

I doubt Break Enchantment (and thus Song of Freedom) is supposed to return someone from petrification.

Based on the spell's description you could make a very good point it works, though. But if I had to decide in my game, I would probably not allow it.

Why have Stone to Flesh (Level 6) if a more versatile level 5 spell can do it as well? Maybe Stone to Flesh does not force you to make a check to return the character?

No matter what the rules say: Elan returning Haley by singing would be a nice scene in the comic.

theNater

2011-05-02, 04:04 AM

I doubt Break Enchantment (and thus Song of Freedom) is supposed to return someone from petrification.
Whether it's supposed to or not, we know it does (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0070.html). In the OotSverse, at least.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-02, 04:13 AM

Couldn't V simply cast Grasping Hand, and then have Elan perform a quick coup de gras?

Grappling (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/combat/specialAttacks.htm)would prevent Z from casting spells with somatic components, and wouldn't allow taking material components. So unless he prepared some Still spells and has Eschew Materials, being Grappled basically kills his spellcasting. Though not subject to Coup de Grace, he'd be very easy to kill or capture.

Problem is, the Bigby ("Bugsby" in OoTS) spells allow for Spell Resistance, and thus have a big chance of failing against a high-level Drow. Since next round may easily be fatal for V, the elf can't really afford such a risk.

That's why I suggested the "Tentacles of Forced Intrusion", which, if they're like Evard's Black Tentacles (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/blackTentacles.htm), also grapple, but don't allow Spell Resistance - and no save, of course.

This would also be in line with V's new "controller" mentality (i.e. make the enemy helpless and let allies finish them off).

This. I wanted to mention Z's Spell Resistance earlier.

The Drow's spell resistance is mentioned in the original post at the top of the thread, as Zz'dtri's main edge against V.

Does V know silence? If so start with that.

Silence (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/silence.htm):

- allows Spell Resistance (big chance of failure vs. Drow);

- allows a Will save (Wizard's highest save, plus Drow get a racial bonus);

- even if successful, would cover in silence a 20ft radius area around Z, capturing V in its zone of effect; so if V was going to cast it, he wouldn't move close to Z;

- finally, since Z doesn't speak when casting spells anymore, there's an outside chance that he somehow doesn't need to use vocal components and thus wouldn't be bothered by Silence.

All in all, not the most efficient route, given that next round V may be killed.

Ancalagon

2011-05-02, 04:26 AM

Whether it's supposed to or not, we know it does (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0070.html). In the OotSverse, at least.

Ah, then it's clear Elan can sing Haley free. Thanks for the link.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-02, 04:31 AM

Actually, since Z's lightning is green, the color of his magic aura, and we know he didn't ban illusion, it's possible that the lightning we're seeing is a Shadow Evocation.

Without the proper feats and prestige classes (which are far outside Core), Shadow Evocation (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/shadowEvocation.htm) sucks:

- it's a 5th level spell which only emulates evocations of 4th level or lower;

- it allows a second Will save, in addition to the evocation's usual Reflex save, and if the save is successful, only deals 1/5 damage;

- it allows Spell Resistance => has a big chance of failing vs. Drow.

If Z had indeed banned Evocation, he'd be much better off casting another Flesh to Stone, or one of the other excellent Transmutation/Conjuration/Necromancy attack spells.

Shadow Evocation also fits with the lack of the spell's name not being spoken when it was cast: it would certainly be awkward to include "Shadow evocation mimicing lightning bolt" in a speech bubble if Z wanted to say anything else (unlikely, I know), and would take up a lot of panel space.

Z also didn't pronounce "Flesh to Stone". It would seem his "silent assassin" schtick now includes his spellcasting. IMO, it's a stylistic decision, which I think it's pretty cool and sets Z apart from the other mages declaring their attacks anime-fasion (normally in D&D vocal components are not the name of the spell in Common, but a string of incantations in some obscure tongue like Ignan, Draconic or Infernal). It's unlikely that he's actually using Silent Spell, because to use it so freely you need a rather far-fetched combination of feats and PrCs.

Innis Cabal

2011-05-02, 04:47 AM

finally, since Z doesn't speak when casting spells anymore, there's an outside chance that he somehow doesn't need to use vocal components and thus wouldn't be bothered by Silence.

Yes he does. (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0789.html)

Lvl45DM!

2011-05-02, 05:01 AM

Z also didn't pronounce "Flesh to Stone". It would seem his "silent assassin" schtick now includes his spellcasting.
Dude he totally does. He's just always cast that lightning silently. Which is why Shadow Evocation makes sense, since shouting out the spell name would ruin the spell effect. Or since s/he seemed to cast it from his scimitars one time it could be a magic item

Ancalagon

2011-05-02, 05:05 AM

Lots of OOTS-characters cast a lot of spells silently. This does not mean they cast them without verbal component, we just do not get it shown.

Re-read the comic... it's full of casters casting normal spells without being shown to say something (it usually happens when it simply does not matter they actually say some verbal component).

Lvl45DM!

2011-05-02, 05:11 AM

Like when Redcloak slays living (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0149.html), Xykon shatters (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0112.html)or forcecages (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0370.html)Elan animates rope (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0156.html)

Yeah but the difference is Zzt'dri ALWAYS casts that (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0059.html)SAME (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0065.html)spell (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0789.html)silently, even when he isn't saying anything else

Neutral Evil

2011-05-02, 07:51 AM

Yeah but the difference is Zzt'dri ALWAYS casts that (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0059.html)SAME (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0065.html)spell (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0789.html)silently, even when he isn't saying anything else

You're right, good catch! Thing that comes to mind: Z has Silent Spell + Arcane Thesis for this particular lightning spell. Which means he can also have Still spell and be able to cast his lightning bolt without both verbal and somatic components at +0 spell level adjustment. Making the grapple strategy worthless!

Also, this comic (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0065.html) illustrates very well the following:

- Z's Spell Resistance;
- Z's elven bonuses vs. spells (immunity to sleep, +2 vs. Enchantment, and +2 vs. spells);
- Z's touch AC is too high for V to hit him with a ray (Shield spell gives Deflection bonus). http://www.toontownhall.com/forums/images/smilies/Other_121209/facepalm.gif
V's got his work cut out for him!

HalfDragonCube

2011-05-02, 09:12 AM

You're right, good catch! Thing that comes to mind: Z has Silent Spell + Arcane Thesis for this particular lightning spell. Which means he can also have Still spell and be able to cast his lightning bolt without both verbal and somatic components at +0 spell level adjustment. Making the grapple strategy worthless!

Also, this comic (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0065.html) illustrates very well the following:

- Z's Spell Resistance;
- Z's elven bonuses vs. spells (immunity to sleep, +2 vs. Enchantment, and +2 vs. spells);
- Z's touch AC is too high for V to hit him with a ray (Shield spell gives Deflection bonus).

V's got his work cut out for him!

Yeah, in that strip V pretty much lost the mage-fight against Z. In fairness, all of their higher-level slots were expended and V probably has more of those than Z due to the LA. Z is so confident is his ability to negate V's spells that he stands around for three panels while V casts his zappy spells.

Since V only survives due to the lawyers dragging Z off, and that will no longer work, then he is 'completely screwed'.

Oh, and by the way, Shield (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/shield.htm) completely negates Magic Missile.

Da'Shain

2011-05-02, 09:17 AM

- Z's touch AC is too high for V to hit him with a ray (Shield spell gives Deflection bonus).Magic Missile isn't a ray, and the Shield spell worked there because it specifically blocks Magic Missiles, not because of its touch AC boost (in fact, does it work against normal touch attacks? The spell text only says it works against incorporeal ones, and normally I think shield bonuses are excluded from normal touch attacks).

I don't think that comic tells us anything about Zz'dtri's touch AC, unfortunately.

Since V only survives due to the lawyers dragging Z off, and that will no longer work, then he is 'completely screwed'.V's gained several levels since then as well as, one hopes, a better understanding of how to actually use his class. I mean, he mentioned that he had no Fireballs left as if that would have been his optimal spell choice against a single target the first time around! Since then he's developed at least a little bit more skill (the whole "Enlarge Person" trick was pretty smart, his use of Forcecage on the ABD, his continued research into apparently powerful scrying spells, his newfound respect for battlefield control instead of direct damage, etc.); he's not going to be winning awards for Wizard play anytime soon, but I'd say he's come a long way.

Also, I'd still be willing to bet that V has more Wizard levels under his belt than Zz'dtri, which may be what decides the day.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-02, 10:11 AM

Magic Missile isn't a ray, and the Shield spell worked there because it specifically blocks Magic Missiles, not because of its touch AC boost (in fact, does it work against normal touch attacks? The spell text only says it works against incorporeal ones, and normally I think shield bonuses are excluded from normal touch attacks).

You're absolutely right. I was thinking about Shield being a Force effect, and for some reason thought it gave Deflection bonus to AC (which does apply vs. touch attacks). Whereas in fact it's a Shield bonus, negated by touch attacks, and V's ray in that comic was blocked by Spell Resistance.

There are spells, however, which give Deflection AC (the best are non-core, though), and it's also possible to craft/buy a magic item. In 653 (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0653.html) Xykon put his Deflection AC to good use vs. spliced V.

V's gained several levels since then as well as, one hopes, a better understanding of how to actually use his class.

I will refrain from optimism for a while. Too often in the past V has demonstraded wizarding incompetence. And so far, in this fight, his performance has been lackluster at best (I still think he wasted his first round on pointlessly casting Fly).

So far, Z has shown much more competence in the wizarding department than V; of what use are the extra levels, if you don't know what to do with them.

P.S. After looking through #65 (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0065.html), it seems clear that Z probably does have Still Spell, Silent Spell, and Arcane Thesis on his Lightning bolt:

- he manages to cast it while holding scimitars in both hands, whereas you normally need at least 1 hand free for the somatic component;

- he never says the name of that spell, as opposed to naming his other spells, which suggests lack of verbal component;

- normally Still Spell + Silent Spell = +2 spell level adjustment, and Z casts it at least twice, which would be an unreasonable waste if he didn't have any mitigation of the level adjustment. Since he only uses the silent and stilled casting with the lightning spell, the most obvious answer would be Arcane Thesis.

- This also means he can cast a Silent, Stilled, Empowered Lightning Bolt as a 4th level spell. Watch out, V!

Blisstake

2011-05-02, 10:21 AM

Okay, a few things....

First of all, I highly doubt V cast fly. He didn't actually say "fly" (which, as far as I'm aware, isn't necesary, but V usually does say the spells he's casting). In addition, he's been in the habit of having overland flight prepared since the party split up. Also, he's been acting far less like an idiot recently, and I think he has the tactical mind not to cast a spell when he's perfectly capable of hitting him from a distance.

Here's how I see it:

Surprise Round: Z uses Flesh to Stone, Haley fails her save.

Round 1: Z wins initiative. He prepares an action to use green lightning as soon as V casts a spell.

V moves up to Z, is about to cast a spell, but then the prepared action goes off, possibly interrupting whatever he had planned.

Moving on, in my opinion, the best spell for V to cast is Power Word Stun. Z does get the chance to resist it, but if the spell goes off, he takes falling damage, and is vulnerable to a coup de grace from Elan.

Lastly, I doubt Z is the only baddie nearby. So it probably won't end up being a straight 1v1 fight.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-02, 11:18 AM

Here's how I see it:

Round 1: Z wins initiative. He prepares an action to use green lightning as soon as V casts a spell. V moves up to Z, is about to cast a spell, but then the prepared action goes off, possibly interrupting whatever he had planned.

Quite possible, and an interesting option.

However, previously, when something like this happened (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0652.html), V was shown as starting to cast the spell, and the *fizzle* text was added to illustrate his spell was interrupted and has fizzled due to damage.

Moving on, in my opinion, the best spell for V to cast is Power Word Stun. Z does get the chance to resist it, but if the spell goes off, he takes falling damage, and is vulnerable to a coup de grace from Elan.

Yes, if Z indeed is loaded with Silent Stilled Lightning bolts at +0 adjustment, stunning him with no saving throw seems like a better strat than grappling, even taking into account SR.

However, a 40% chance of failure is still too high a risk IMHO. Also, he used it only recently, so for the purpose of drama it is unlikely the same spell will be used again to quickly triumph in a fight. I have hopes that the Giant is preparing something special for this mage duel.

Might be there anything else V can do? Maybe it's time to think outside the box? Wasn't that what the Xykon experience was supposed to teach V?

Lastly, I doubt Z is the only baddie nearby. So it probably won't end up being a straight 1v1 fight.

Frankly, I'm most interested in spellcasters, so that's what I wanted to focus on :smallwink: but if more combatants enter the fray, their actions will of course receive due attention.

Fish

2011-05-02, 11:57 AM

V will not defeat Z.

Elan will.
Elan's usual tactic of making a sexy female illusion would probably cow or terrify a Drow elf male.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-02, 12:12 PM

V will not defeat Z.

Elan will.
Elan's usual tactic of making a sexy female illusion would probably cow or terrify a Drow elf male.

Not necessarily (http://forgottenrealms.wikia.com/wiki/Jaezred_Chaulssin). Also, Drow wizards are hellishly proud, not intimidated by the matriarchy, and sometimes rule their own houses (http://forgottenrealms.wikia.com/wiki/Lord_Dyrr).

Blisstake

2011-05-02, 12:38 PM

Right, but it's also possible V's spell wasn't interrupted. The comic ended a bit suddenly, so we'll have to see what's next :smallsmile:

Neutral Evil

2011-05-02, 12:39 PM

Okay, how about this:

Blacklight. (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/divine/spells/blacklight.htm)

Blacklight
Evocation [Darkness]
Level: Darkness 3, Sor/Wiz 3
Components: V, S, M
Casting Time: 1 standard action
Range: Close (25 ft. + 5 ft./2 levels)
Area: A 20-ft.-radius emanation centered on a creature, object, or point in space
Duration: 1 round/level (D)
Saving Throw: Will negates or none (object)
Spell Resistance: Yes or no (object)

The caster creates an area of total darkness. The darkness is impenetrable to normal vision and darkvision, but the caster can see normally within the blacklit area. Creatures outside the spell’s area, even the caster, cannot see through it.

The spell can be cast on a point in space, but the effect is stationary when cast on a mobile object. A character can cast the spell on a creature, and the effect then radiates from the creature and moves as it moves. Unattended objects and points in space do not get saving throws or benefit from spell resistance.

Blacklight counters or dispels any light spell of equal or lower level. The 3rd-level cleric spell daylight counters or dispels blacklight.

V casts the spell on a point in space so that the area encompasses him and Elan, and then changes his position. Z's darkvision won't penetrate the globe of darkness. V will see perfectly from within the spell's area. Result:

- Z won't be able to use any targeted spell (such as Flesh to Stone) against either V or Elan;

- Z will have trouble aiming his trademark Lightning Bolt (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/lightningBolt.htm) (if that's what his spell is), since it's a line (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/magicOverview/spellDescriptions.htm#area) which is basically 5 ft wide;

- given Z's preference to SoD transmutations and his lightning bolt, his best repertoire of spells will thus be rendered void;

- V will have no difficulty aiming his spells at Z from inside the blacklight sphere, and changing position every round (in 3D, since he has flight).

- Dispel Magic will have Z at a disadvantage because V has a higher Wizard level due to LA, and it still requires to cast a spell/spend a standard action;

- the spell itself is core (SRD), so chances of it being used by the Giant are not insignificant.

Basically Z will be screwed, unless he has True Seeing memorized (or a Permanized Arcane Sight, but I'm not ready to give any OoTS wizard that much credit), and even then he'd have to burn a 6th level spell and spend a standard action casting it; meanwhile V can come up with a different plan.

Far-fetched, I know, but still something to think about. And, of course, not without its flaws: Z could have a couple of fireballs stashed in his memory, or enough brains to use Arcane Sight to track the magic items worn by the heroes, for instance.

MesiDoomstalker

2011-05-02, 12:55 PM

Quite possible, and an interesting option.

However, previously, when something like this happened (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0652.html), V was shown as starting to cast the spell, and the *fizzle* text was added to illustrate his spell was interrupted and has fizzled due to damage.

Or he could of prepared for V to move, expecting him to do so. We are talking about a Nale lackey here, so Nale's crazy preparedness he displays at the beginings of his plans are not to be underestimated. Though I agree prepareing to fire when V tries to cast would be a smarter move.

However, a 40% chance of failure is still too high a risk IMHO. Also, he used it only recently, so for the purpose of drama it is unlikely the same spell will be used again to quickly triumph in a fight. I have hopes that the Giant is preparing something special for this mage duel.

However, 8th level spells are (probably) hir's highest level spell and thus his best chance of overcomig SR. And unless Z took some levels in a class with a good HD, Z would be severly crippled if V overcomes his SR, as I doubt he has more than 100HP and thus would be stunned for at least 2 rounds (minimum from 2d4) though I wouldn't be suprised if he has less than 50 and thus at least 4 rounds (mimimum from 4d4) especially with Draw LA, supposedly all Wizard levels and a racial Constituiton penalty.

Personally, I see V's turn ending with him be completly useless (as in he got zapped and lost his action as we have seen), Elan tries to help with a spell as vengeance (he will have a moment of clarity knowing he can't free Haley right then due to time a 1 minute casting/playing time) but it will be blocked by Z's SR. Next round Z tries to blast V away and V miracoulous succeds on hir's saving throw but is badly damaged but follows up with Power Word Stun, overcomes Z's SR, and incapacitates him for several rounds.

Realizing that the poop has hit the fan, Nale or whoever is waiting in the wings will pop out to engage Elan and V. Or they will pop out during the first round.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-02, 12:57 PM

Right, but it's also possible V's spell wasn't interrupted. The comic ended a bit suddenly, so we'll have to see what's next :smallsmile:

Hmm, so you're saying:

1. Z readied his lightning spell to be cast when V starts to cast a spell;

2. V moved, and started to cast a spell, so Z's lightning fired;

3. V took damage (end of 789), but he didn't fail his Concentration check, his spell didn't fizzle and the casting will finish in 790.

Interesting supposition. However, the Concentration check DC (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/skills/concentration.htm) would be rather severe:

Assuming Lightning bolt average damage = 35, V is highly unlikely to make a saving throw, and he was trying to cast one of his highest-level spells, the DC would be 10 +35 +8 = 53. V's Concentration bonus is probably +18, since he doesn't have any Constitution to speak of; so even if he rolls a 20, he'd only get 38. I.e. the DC is impossible to beat (20 is not an automatic success for skill checks).

Note that casting defensively only helps against Attacks of opportunity, and not against being damaged during casting (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/magicOverview/castingSpells.htm).

However, 8th level spells are (probably) hir's highest level spell and thus his best chance of overcomig SR.

Spell level contributes to the spell DC, which is pitted against the saving throw. To overcome spell resistance, you need to make a caster level check (1d20 + number of your caster levels).

Z would be severly crippled if V overcomes his SR

Yeah, the problem is overcoming the SR.

Personally, I see V's turn ending with him be completly useless (as in he got zapped and lost his action as we have seen), Elan tries to help with a spell as vengeance (he will have a moment of clarity knowing he can't free Haley right then due to time a 1 minute casting/playing time) but it will be blocked by Z's SR. Next round Z tries to blast V away and V miracoulous succeds on hir's saving throw but is badly damaged but follows up with Power Word Stun, overcomes Z's SR, and incapacitates him for several rounds.

Realizing that the poop has hit the fan, Nale or whoever is waiting in the wings will pop out to engage Elan and V. Or they will pop out during the first round.

Prediction duly noted! :smallbiggrin: Although for V to win by miraculously surviving two Lightning Bolts to the face would be slightly anticlimactic; personally I'm hoping for something special from the Giant.

Blisstake

2011-05-02, 01:11 PM

However, 8th level spells are (probably) hir's highest level spell and thus his best chance of overcomig SR. And unless Z took some levels in a class with a good HD, Z would be severly crippled if V overcomes his SR,

If I recall correctly, spell level does not factor in when making a check to overcome spell resistance.

MesiDoomstalker

2011-05-02, 01:20 PM

Spell level contributes to the spell DC, which is pitted against the saving throw. To overcome spell resistance, you need to make a caster level check (1d20 + number of your caster levels).

Ah. I have only limited experience playing casters. (So far, only a healer/buffer Cleric who very rarely targetted hostile targets). So I did not now that.

Yeah, the problem is overcoming the SR.

I know. It sucks.

Prediction duly noted! :smallbiggrin: Although for V to win by miraculously surviving two Lightning Bolts to the face would be slightly anticlimactic; personally I'm hoping for something special from the Giant.
My prediction is succeding on the second saving throw. Given V's fraility (being an Elf and a Wizard) a single Lightning Bolt is problamtic. A second with a successful saving throw could possibly drop hir into the negatives or single digits depending on how Z rolls damage. So I expect V to survive my the skin of hir teeth.

Though unleashing a new spell from V would be nice but considering the damage out put of a wizard against something as frail as an Elven wizard, it woudln't last long unless they stick to completly non damaging spells.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-02, 02:47 PM

All right, it seems V has no apparent way of assuring success without taking too much risk, unless he neutralizes the Drow's SR. Assay Spell Resistance comes to mind as just the right spell for the job:

ASSAY SPELL RESISTANCE
Divination
Level: Cleric 4, sorcerer/wizard 4
Components: V, S
Casting Time: 1 swift
action
Range: Personal
Target: You
Duration: 1 round/level

Finishing the spell, your eyes glow with a pale blue radiance, and you understand how to overcome your foe’s resistance to your magic.

This spell gives you a +10 bonus on caster level checks to overcome the
spell resistance of a specific creature. Assay resistance is effective against only one specific creature per casting, and you must be able to see the
creature when you cast the spell.

+10 bonus to CL vs. SR means 100% victory over Z's 24-ish SR.

Swift action casting means V can cast it and a standard action spell in the same round.

1 round/level duration is more than enough, and V needs it only against one specific creature - the Drow wizard.

Perfect, with only one drawback: it's non-core. However, it's both in Complete Divine and Spell Compendium, so not obscure at all. For copyright purposes Rich may name it slightly differently.

After defeating SR is assured, Power Word: Stun is a good way to shut down Z for a few rounds and either kill or capture him.

So, Assay Spell Resistance + PW: Stun seems to be a very efficient combo for V. Only problem is, whether he knows ASR. But, considering his recent encounters with spell-resistent creatures, he might have devoted some time to researching such a spell, or some money to buying a scroll of it.

Herald Alberich

2011-05-02, 03:44 PM

Silence (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/silence.htm):

- allows Spell Resistance (big chance of failure vs. Drow);

- allows a Will save (Wizard's highest save, plus Drow get a racial bonus);

- even if successful, would cover in silence a 20ft radius area around Z, capturing V in its zone of effect; so if V was going to cast it, he wouldn't move close to Z;

- finally, since Z doesn't speak when casting spells anymore, there's an outside chance that he somehow doesn't need to use vocal components and thus wouldn't be bothered by Silence.

All in all, not the most efficient route, given that next round V may be killed.

The discussion has moved on, but I still want to point out that all of those drawbacks pale when compared to the fact that Silence is not a Wizard spell.

I wonder, though, if Elan knows it, would think to cast it, and would know enough to decide that it's not a very good idea.

John Cribati

2011-05-02, 04:19 PM

"Using this ability requires 1 minute of uninterrupted concentration and music."
So Elan could sing Haley free, provided V can hold off Z for 10 rounds.

MesiDoomstalker

2011-05-02, 04:33 PM

"Using this ability requires 1 minute of uninterrupted concentration and music."
So Elan could sing Haley free, provided V can hold off Z for 10 rounds.

I highly doubt Elan would get that kind of time right now. Knowing Nale, somebody (probably Nale and/or Sabine) is waiting in the wings to ambush Elan and take him out too and provide reinforcements for Z.

John Cribati

2011-05-02, 04:37 PM

I highly doubt Elan would get that kind of time right now. Knowing Nale, somebody (probably Nale and/or Sabine) is waiting in the wings to ambush Elan and take him out too and provide reinforcements for Z.

I know. I'm just pointing that out because it came up earlier and was dropped. There is, after all, so much that can go wrong with Elan making himself a singing target for 10 rounds.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-03, 03:34 AM

I know. I'm just pointing that out because it came up earlier and was dropped. There is, after all, so much that can go wrong with Elan making himself a singing target for 10 rounds.

I suppose Elan can cast Break Enchantment after the battle ends. Even if the Order will have to flee the field, they probably can take Haley's statue with them (I was even thinking the Bag of Holding, but judging from its known dimensions (2 ft by 4 ft) its diameter is only about 1,3 ft, and the statue wouldn't fit).

Still, there are good chances IMHO that Elan will use Break Enchantment on Haley at some point. There are only a few useful things he can do with his build, and that's one of the most prominent of them ATM. Also, it would support his new philosophy of using his abilities to keep friends from harm.

MesiDoomstalker

2011-05-03, 04:55 PM

I suppose Elan can cast Break Enchantment after the battle ends. Even if the Order will have to flee the field, they probably can take Haley's statue with them (I was even thinking the Bag of Holding, but judging from its known dimensions (2 ft by 4 ft) its diameter is only about 1,3 ft, and the statue wouldn't fit).

Still, there are good chances IMHO that Elan will use Break Enchantment on Haley at some point. There are only a few useful things he can do with his build, and that's one of the most prominent of them ATM. Also, it would support his new philosophy of using his abilities to keep friends from harm.

Oh definatly. What a shock for Haley when she finds out what happened while she was incapacitated and then an even bigger shock when she finds out Elan of all PC's freed her! Then Elan's excuse in the first panel would be finally carried out, except maybe the elf+cat parts. :smalltongue:

ORione

2011-05-04, 11:35 PM

This was fun to read. But I think that the rules aren't the biggest issue. The Giant will find a way to justify whatever the plot demands.

zimmerwald1915

2011-05-05, 01:44 AM

Assuming the imp's Qarr, and he implies that he is, the IFCC now has confirmed witting pawns on both sides of this skirmish. That alone will guarantee V's survival, though given the odds against her she'll be roughed up quite a bit first, physically but especially emotionally. Before Qarr appeared V seemed quite confident in the lessons she'd learned "since our last encounter". Now there's someone on hand to remind her just how low she had the potential to fall, and just how much she fulfilled that potential.

Incidentally, V seems to have developed Thog-like resistance to wounds, judging by her un-blemishedness after Z's blast to the face and Yukyuk's sneak attack.

Da'Shain

2011-05-05, 01:51 AM

As I predicted, the next action was V's, and instead of going for the blasty blast, he thought of his teammates first. Haley's relatively safe, Elan's on his way to get the cleric with winged feet, and he's rendered himself nearly impervious to w/e the kobold can dish out. Surprisingly he's not looking particularly injured, despite eating green lightning and two sneak attacks; perhaps he already had some form of energy protection up? Or the Giant is just stretching out the combat to make it more interesting.

It's good that V's playing relatively intelligently, because she's definitely gonna need to. Her vs. 3 LG members? Even if Qarr is an imp, he'll still be able to add some more spells per round (assuming he's actually a sorceror and doesn't just have Charm Monster as a homebrew ability). The kobold will likely be near-useless now unless he's got adamantine arrows. Still, this fight is looking worse and worse for V. I'd be delighted if she pulled it off, and I think one of the 3 LG members will bite the dust in the upcoming battle, but V'll probably end up losing.

theNater

2011-05-05, 02:58 AM

Incidentally, V seems to have developed Thog-like resistance to wounds, judging by her un-blemishedness after Z's blast to the face and Yukyuk's sneak attack.
It may be that whatever spell that is doesn't hurt very much. Remember, we first saw it used when Z and V were down to "lesser spells", due to having adventured all day. So it's probably not very potent in the first place, and V has leveled several times(and thus gained more hit points) in the interim.

If the spell is doing the same damage it was doing way back then(not unreasonable, as many low level spells stop scaling eventually), it might just be that V isn't injured enough to show wounds.

As for the arrows, injury marks from wounds we see made tend to be where the attack connected, and we haven't gotten a clear look at V's back since the hit.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 03:47 AM

As I predicted, the next action was V's

You're likely right with the readied action idea; I added it to the first post in the Results section. However, the initiative order in this battle seems all over the place.

, and instead of going for the blasty blast, he thought of his teammates first.

Actually, no. V's first action was to fly up to Z, presumably in order to pull off some kind of attack. If his plan was to shrink Haley and send Elan off, why not do it immediately? Moreover, after being knocked down, and sending Elan off, V again flies up to Z (and gets two crossbow bolts in the back). What is he trying to do? Cast a touch spell? Wouldn't it be better to use the familiar to deliver that?

My money is still on V being his stupid inefficient self.

I'd be delighted if she pulled it off

Eh, I'm rooting for Zz'dtri. Vaarsuvius needs to truly redeem himself in my eyes before I consider rooting for him.

theNater

2011-05-05, 04:04 AM

Actually, no. V's first action was to fly up to Z, presumably in order to pull off some kind of attack. If his plan was to shrink Haley and send Elan off, why not do it immediately? Moreover, after being knocked down, and sending Elan off, V again flies up to Z (and gets two crossbow bolts in the back). What is he trying to do? Cast a touch spell? Wouldn't it be better to use the familiar to deliver that?
Could be a diversion. If Zz'dtri is attacking V, that means he's not attacking Elan or smashing Haley.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 08:47 AM

Could be a diversion. If Zz'dtri is attacking V, that means he's not attacking Elan or smashing Haley.

Characters take action in turns according to the order of Initiative. So, Zz'dtri couldn't attack anyone during V's turn, unless he readied an action to react to a specific event. Therefore, it's basically impossible to make a "diversion" in the duration of a single turn. If Z hadn't readied the action to attack V, then V would fly up to Z, and would have to fly back down in order to use the scroll on Haley. Which is absolutely pointless. If Z had readied an action to attack V (which is apparently what happened), then V flies up, gets blasted and knocked down, and then uses the scroll on Haley. Which is doubly pointless because it involves triggering the readied attack.

No, what is likely happening is that V keeps flying up to Z in order to use some sort of attack. However, he gets continuously distracted (first by Z's lightning, then by Yuk's bolts), and keeps sidetracking to do other stuff (Shrinking Haley, Hasting Elan, and Stoneskinning himself).

V basically just spent three rounds (surprise round, 1st round and 2nd round) doing nothing to attack or otherwise hinder the enemy. It's a miracle he's still alive, and can only be attributed to Zz'dtri's almost equally bad tactics.

I mean, all Z had to do was, after Stoning Haley, each turn ready an action to attack V with the lightning (to which V is obviously very susceptible) on condition of V casting a spell or using a magic item. The damage from the lightning spell, even if it is only an ordinary lightning bolt, would be enough to fizzle V's spellcasting about 95% of the time.

_____________

(Math:
Lightning bolt at CL 11 does 10d6 = 35 average damage, Reflex save for half;
Z's DC = 10 +3 (spell level) +6 (if he has the same Int as V, which IMHO we can assume) = 19, not counting possible Spell Focus etc.;
V has no Dex to speak of, so his Reflex save is at +5, as for a 15th level Wizard (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/classes/sorcererWizard.htm#wizard);
so V would have to roll 14 or higher to save, which means 65% chance of failure (35 average damage), 35% chance of success (18 average damage).

The Concentration DC = 10 +8 (spell level for V's most powerful spells, one of which he assumably will want to cast) + damage = 53 if save failed, 36 if save succeeded.
V doesn't have a Con bonus, so his Concentration check would be: 1d20 + 18 (ranks) = 38 maximum. A 20 is not an automatic success for skill checks.

So, he has 0 chance to succeed if he fails his save (i.e. 65% of the time), and 15% chance to succeed if he saves (i.e. 35% of the time). Which gives a total estimation of possible success = 5%.)
_____________

Since Elan can't effectively fight Zz'dtri anyway (the drow is flying and Elan doesn't even have a ranged weapon, not to mention decent attack/defense/battlefield control spells), then Z could easily defeat the entire enemy group by himself, using the simplest tactic, which he apparently already used in #789.

Even simply zapping V with lightning again at the beginning of Round 2 (since Z obviously rolled higher Initiative) already gave a big chance of killing V on the spot.

Instead, however, we see the drow:

A) not readying an action against V casting a spell in Round 1 (which would have fizzled V's spell and left him without either a Standard Action or a Swift Action);

B) apparently doing nothing during Round 2, at least until V completely uses up his turn.

which in sum effectively allowed V to cast three spells. With three spells, V could certainly have had a very high probability of killing Z (even if it was, like, 2 Fireballs and 1 Quickened Fireball), and maybe even Yukyuk by catching them both in the blast radius.

So the wizards both act dumb inefficiently (Z marginally less so than V), which is hardly a surprise for this comic.

pendell

2011-05-05, 09:12 AM

Okay, I have a question.

How would *You* fight this battle if you were V? Given what we know of his spell list from class 'n level geekery, what is his/her best tactical options?

Respectfully,

Brian P.

Blisstake

2011-05-05, 09:18 AM

Hmm, I don't think the point is that they're inefficient. A lot of times battles don't make a lot of sense. I mean, a lot more attacks miss in this comic than should be normal. Remember when Bozzok (19th level) and Crystal (15th level) were flanking Belkar, and neither got a single hit? Remember the most recent fight where neither Thog nor Roy scored a hit, despite the fact that it would require both to roll a natural 1?

Remember, Rich puts story and jokes above actual rules, so I think the reason Z didn't attack V those rounds was just because that would mean V would go down too quick. Remember when V was allowed to cast three spells in a row against the Chimera and the ogres?

At any rate... I was right about Z not being alone :smalltongue:

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 09:30 AM

How would *You* fight this battle if you were V? Given what we know of his spell list from class 'n level geekery, what is his/her best tactical options?

This was discussed rather extensively in this thread.

So far, V had basically 2 rounds' worth of actions. He used them, so far, to cast two Standard Action spells and one Swift Action (Quickened) spell. Proceeding from this, here's how I'd suggest using his two rounds.

Considering that V has about a 60% chance of beating Z's Spell Resistance and about a 90% chance of beating one of his weak saves (assuming a reasonably high level spell), the options IMHO are, in order of preference:

1. Empowered/Quickened no-save, no-SR spells (V banned Conjuration => Orbs are out, so generally unlikely);

2. Resistance-destroying spell (e.g. Assay Resistance, Swift Action spell which gives +10 to overcome SR) followed by Power Word: Stun;

3. 2 Power Word: Stun (2 casts give an 84% chance of success, which is reasonable compared to alternatives) and 2 Quickened Fireballs;

4. 2 Power Word: Blind (same as #3) and 2 Quickened Fireballs;

5. Spamming damage spells, e.g. 2 Empowered Cones of Cold and 2 Quickened Fireballs.

Math:

Empowered Cone of Cold (level 6 spell slot): DC 20 = 30% save vs. Z's +5 (13th lvl Wizard, Elf +2 Dex) = 30% chance of half damage; average damage = (15d6*1.5 = 79)*0.7 + (79/2)*0.4 = 55 + 16 = 71, more than enough to kill an OoTS 13th level wizard with a race penalty to Con.

Considering 60% SR, 2 Empowered Cone of Colds should do the trick. The average damage they'll get across will be 120% = 85 - again, more than enough. The chance that one of them will pierce the SR is 84%.

But also, let's add a 2 Quickened Fireballs (level 7 spell slot):

DC 19 = 35% chance of half damage; average damage = (10d6 = 35)*0.65 + (35/2 = 18)*0.35 = 23 + 6 = 29, x2 = 58. By itself, already enough to kill Z. Also, works as an added guarantee if one of the Cones of Cold rolls unusually low damage.

Total probability of success: one of the Standard Action spells succeeding = about 84%, + chance of both Fireballs succeeding (36%) = 90%

Tactics note:

Now that Z appears to be lower in the initiative order than V, the high elf can ready spells against Z casting, in order to do damage and disrupt the opponent's magic.

____________

SUMMARY:

So, in general, it would seem that if V used his actions to attack instead of "helping allies", he would have about a 90% chance to already triumph, even if he didn't have any means of beating Spell Resistance (not even a Spell Penetration feat).

If he did have Spell Penetration and Greater Spell Penetration (what else was he doing with his feats, anyway?), his chance of success would be close to 100%.

Of course, this doesn't take into account special magical defenses Z may have. But neither does it take into account special offense that V may have. It's a sort of "barebone", "baseline" calculation, which nevertheless IMHO gives a good idea of where things stand.
____________

Themrys

2011-05-05, 09:39 AM

V has learnt a lesson. Inevitably, a character who has learnt a lesson has to be more effective than before. Therefore, I think V will be able to, if not win, distract Zz'dtri long enough for Elan to find and warn Durkon. :smallsmile:

Blisstake

2011-05-05, 09:44 AM

3. Power Word: Stun (2 casts gives 120% chance of success, and V was
already shown using 2 Standard Action spells);

You can't have over a 100% chance of success. The actual chance of one of his spells being a success (if he casts 2) is 84%.

Blisstake

2011-05-05, 09:45 AM

(Server being weird)

pendell

2011-05-05, 09:48 AM

Wait a minute .. does V have an ally is this fight?

Qarr.

Think about it. If V gets killed the IFCC loses their investment, and then have to answer to Tiamat for getting a lot of black dragons killed with no return.

So I wonder if Qarr is a double agent -- tasked to keep an eye on the LG and to protect the interests of the IFCC.

Which means, while he can't prevent V from being *defeated*, he can prevent him/her from being killed.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

super dark33

2011-05-05, 09:48 AM

(Server being weird)

you can deleat posts yknow

Blisstake

2011-05-05, 09:49 AM

you can deleat posts yknow

I've hit delete post like 3 times now. It isn't doing anything.

Ancalagon

2011-05-05, 09:52 AM

So I wonder if Qarr is a double agent -- tasked to keep an eye on the LG and to protect the interests of the IFCC.

You wonder that? ;)

Of course Qarr is a double agent and he's surley no familiar. He made sure the LG got placed where they need to be to cause chaos, both in regard to the "stable" situation on the western continent (due to Tarquins scheme) as well as in regard to the issue with the gates and the order.

He'll also protect the interests of the IFCC - and I strongly doubt Zz'dtri has understood the full scope of the power of his familiar. Some Imp? Yes. Some Imp with a lot of class levels and connections to some Archdemons? Surely "no".

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 10:04 AM

You can't have over a 100% chance of success. The actual chance of one of his spells being a success (if he casts 2) is 84%.

That's the trouble with probabilities - they're quite subjective.

I am no mathematician, so I will refer you to a learned scholar of the subject:

"When you're looking for the probability that two events, A and
B, will BOTH occur, the probability of this coincidence is small, and
you multiply the separate probabilities of A and B to get a smaller
number. When you don't care which happens - either A or B - you can
add the probabilities to find the separate probability that one or the
other will happen."

Dr Math (http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56503.html)

Probability calculation is a complex issue. Normally, I also multiply probabilities when calculating chances (you will notice this in my previous post). But this time I thought adding would be more appropriate. I don't claim to be 100% correct on this, of course, since math is not exactly my field of study.

Ancalagon

2011-05-05, 10:07 AM

That's the trouble with probabilities - they're quite subjective.

On contrary... they are completely calculateable. That's the opposite of subjective. If you speak about the outcomes of a probability, that's different - but also far from "subjective".

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 10:13 AM

Of course Qarr is a double agent and he's surley no familiar.

Qarr is certainly a familiar, since Z recognises him as such. Unless Z is either lying (why?), or can't tell whether a creature is his familiar or not (mechanically impossible).

It's more likely, IMHO, that Qarr answered Z's Improved Familiar ability and became a familiar at the behest of his IFCC masters. It's an interesting question of how his high-level powers coincide with standard familiar abilities, but I think this is where some leeway may be allowed.

Of course, when the IFCC and their rule-bending super-magic is involved, you can never be 100% sure, though.

My proposal is, since Z calls Qarr his familiar, we should treat Qarr as Z's familiar unless proven otherwise; and since Qarr seems to be his former self, we should treat him as his former self (including powers) unless proven otherwise. The discrepancy between normal familiar powers and Qarr's powers we can attribute to IFCC involvement, unless (you guessed it) proven otherwise.

_________

On contrary... they are completely calculateable. That's the opposite of subjective. If you speak about the outcomes of a probability, that's different - but also far from "subjective".

Well then speak on the matter, why don't you?

When I said "subjective", I referred to the interpretation of events being calculated, which plays a role in which calculation method we use.

But, 84% is perhaps the most probable correct answer here :smallbiggrin:

martinkou

2011-05-05, 10:16 AM

On contrary... they are completely calculateable. That's the opposite of subjective. If you speak about the outcomes of a probability, that's different - but also far from "subjective".

Probability is definitely not subjective - but it is hard. I don't want to go into the calculations (and thus look for all the ways I can make errors) at 8am in the morning but I'm pretty sure nobody has done it right in this thread, yet.

Dr. Math's description only applies if the events are mutually exclusive and one of them must happen - that's part of the reason why probability is hard - simple descriptions of it are often misleading, even though correct (actually, the "either A or B" thing Dr. Math said has technical meaning in mathematics, but it's too easy for non-math people to simply take it as "A or B", which is ambiguous). The thing is, if it's possible for both A and B to happen, or none of them to happen, or other combinations to happen - you have to take that into calculation as well. But there's only one correct answer, and if you've arrived at 1.2 it means you're doing it wrong.

p.s. it's also possible to say probability is subjective in a lot of circumstances - when you don't exactly know what are the exact P values of the underlying events and so you had to assign some values to them yourself (e.g. the chance a software project will be done by tomorrow) - but even then, you should never arrive at anything > 1. D&D probabilities usually involve fair dices so there shouldn't be much space for subjectivity.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 10:36 AM

if you've arrived at 1.2 it means you're doing it wrong.

I think I've got this.

Example: you have a 10% chance of winning a game of chance. Your friend also has a 10% chance of winning this game. Would you say that there is a 20% chance that either of you will win? I'd say yes. Would you say that instead there's a (10% + (90%*10%)) = 19% chance of either of you winning? I'd say no. Because the events are independent; regardless of how you perform, your friend still has the same win chance, and vice versa.

Now if we increase the chance to 60% and 60%: why should we suddenly multiply instead of adding?

84% success rate would only apply to cases when the second Cone of Cold would only be cast if the first one failed to penetrate SR. But the thing is, the second Cone will be cast regardless of whether the first failed or not. So the two chances are not interdependent, and should be added rather than multiplied.

Let's look at this from the other end: in the 84%, 60% is responsible for the first Cone, and only 24% for the second. But in fact, the second also has a 60% chance of success. Paradox, right there.

This reminds me of the immortal dialogue in Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead:

ROS: Heads.
(He picks it up and puts it in his money bag. The process is repeated.)
Heads.
(Again.)
ROS: Heads.
(Again.)
Heads.
(Again.)
Heads.
GUIL (flipping a coin): There is an art to the building up of suspense.
ROS: Heads.
GUIL (flipping another): Though it can be done by luck alone.
ROS: Heads.
GUIL: If that's the word I'm after.
ROS (raises his head at GUIL): Seventy-six love.
(GUIL gets up but has nowhere to go. He spins another coin over his
shoulder without looking at it, his attention being directed at his
environment or lack of it.)
Heads.
GUIL: A weaker man might be moved to re-examine his faith, if in
nothing else at least in the law of probability.
(He slips a coin over his shoulder as he goes to look upstage.)
ROS: Heads.
(GUIL, examining the confines of the stage, flips over two more coins,
as he does so, one by one of course. ROS announces each of them as "heads".)
GUIL (musing): The law of probability, as it has been oddly asserted,
is something to do with the proposition that if six monkeys (he has
surprised himself)... if six monkeys were...
ROS: Game?
GUIL: Were they?
ROS: Are you?
GUIL (understanding): Games. (Flips a coin.) The law of averages, if I
have got this right, means that if six monkeys were thrown up in the air for
long enough they would land on their tails about as often as they would land
on their -
ROS: Heads. (He picks up the coin.)
GUIL: Which at first glance does not strike one as a particularly
rewarding speculation, in either sense, even without the monkeys. I mean you
wouldn't bet on it. I mean I would, but you wouldn't... (As he flips a
coin.)
ROS: Heads.
GUIL: Would you? (Flips a coin.)
ROS: Heads.
(Repeat.)
Heads. (He looks up at GUIL - embarrassed laugh.) Getting a bit of a
bore, isn't it?
GUIL (coldly): A bore?
ROS: Well...
GUIL: What about suspense?
ROS (innocently): What suspense?
(Small pause.)
GUIL: It must be the law of diminishing returns... I feel the spell
about to be broken. (Energising himself somewhat.)
(He takes out a coin, spins it high, catches it, turns it over on to
the back of his other hand, studies the coin - and tosses it to ROS. His
energy deflates and he sits.)
Well, it was a even chance... if my calculations are correct.
ROS: Eighty-five in a row - beaten the record!
GUIL: Don't be absurd.
ROS: Easily!
GUIL (angry): Is the it, then? Is that all?
ROS: What?
GUIL: A new record? Is that as far as you prepared to go?
ROS: Well...
GUIL: No questions? Not even a pause?
ROS: You spun it yourself.
GUIL: Not a flicker of doubt?
ROS (aggrieved, aggressive): Well, I won - didn't I?
GUIL (approaches him - quieter): And if you'd lost? If they'd come down
against you, eighty -five times, one after another, just like that?
ROS (dumbly): Eighty-five in a row? Tails?
GUIL: Yes! What would you think?
ROS (doubtfully): Well... (Jocularly.) Well, I'd have a good look at
your coins for a start!
GUIL (retiring): I'm relieved. At least we can still count on
self-interest as a predictable factor... I suppose it's the last to go. Your
capacity for trust made me wonder if perhaps... you, alone...
(He turns on him suddenly, reaches out a hand.) Touch.
(ROS claps his hand. GUIL pulls him up to him.)
(More intensely): We have been spinning coins together since - (He
releases him almost as violently.) This is not the first time we spun coins!
ROS: Oh no - we've been spinning coins for as long as I remember.
GUIL: How long is that?
ROS: I forget. Mind you - eighty-five times!
GUIL: Yes?
ROS: It'll take some time beating, I imagine.
GUIL: Is that what you imagine? Is that it? No fear?
ROS: Fear?
GUIL (in fury - flings a coin on the ground): Fear! The crack that
might flood your brain with light!
ROS: Heads... (He puts it in his bag.)
(GUIL sits despondently. He takes a coin, spins it, lets it fall
between his feet. He looks at it, picks it up; throws it to ROS, who puts it
in his bag.)
(GUIL takes another coin, spins it, catches it, turns it over on to his
other hand, looks at it, and throws it to ROS who puts it in his bag.)
(GUIL tales a third coin, spins it, catches it in his right hand, turns
it over on to his loft wrist, lobs it in the air, catches it with his left
hand, raises his left leg, throws the coin up under it, catches it and turns
it over on to the top of his head, where it sits. ROS comes, looks at it,
puts it in his bag.)
ROS: I'm afraid -
GUIL: So am I.
ROS: I'm afraid it isn't your day.
GUIL: I'm afraid it is.
(Small pause.)
ROS: Eighty-nine.
GUIL: It must be indicative of something, besides the redistribution of
wealth. (He muses.) List of possible explanations. One: I'm willing it.
Inside where nothing shows, I'm the essence of a man spinning double-headed
coins, and betting against himself in private atonement for an unremembered
past. (He spins a coin at ROS.)
ROS: Heads.
GUIL: Two: time has stopped dead, and a single experience of one coin
being spun once has been repeated ninety times... (He flips a coin, looks at
it, tosses it to ROS.) On the whole, doubtful. Three: divine intervention,
that is to say, a good turn from above concerning him, cf. children of
Israel, or retribution from above concerning me, cf. Lot's wife. Four: a
spectacular vindication of the principle that each individual coin spun
individually (he spins one) is as likely to come down heads as tails and
therefore should cause no surprise that each individual time it does. (It
does. He tosses it to ROS.)
ROS: I've never known anything like it!

Good times.

hamishspence

2011-05-05, 10:44 AM

Example: you have a 10% chance of winning a game of chance. Your friend also has a 10% chance of winning this game. Would you say that there is a 20% chance that either of you will win? I'd say yes. Would you say that instead there's a (10% + (90%*10%)) = 19% chance of either of you winning? I'd say no. Because the events are independent; regardless of how you perform, your friend still has the same win chance, and vice versa.

If you roll 6 dice, the probability that at least one of them will be a 1, isn't 100%.

If you toss two coins, the probability that at least one of them will come up 1, isn't 100%.

martinkou

2011-05-05, 10:47 AM

First thing before you write equations: you need to understand the model exactly. There's really nothing from this description from which you can say the two probabilities are independent.

So, before we even go into calculations, we need to know where the 10%s come from. Let's say you and me are throwing 2 fair d10s, independently.

Now that should make it independent - but even then, I'm beginning to feel not so sure already. Yes, prob. is THAT hard. It's also why I'm pretty sure nobody is doing it right in this thread, yet.

Now what's the winning condition? Let's say the first guy who throws a 10 wins. Now, you list out all the things that can happen in this game...

A throws a 10, he wins
A throws < 10, B throws a 10, B wins
A throws a < 10, B throws a < 10, nobody wins

Now, check if these 3 events account for all possibilities, and whether they're mutually exclusive? I think they are, but I'm not really sure.

So, what do we have here...
P[1] = 0.1
P[2] = 0.9 * 0.1
P[3] = 0.9 * 0.9

P[1] + P[2] + P[3] = 1, looks good

So if you and me play such a game, and I play first, my chance of winning is 0.1, yours... less than mine. And that's already pretty surprising for most people, since if I proposed such a game to you, it may seem like it's fair. Again, probability is hard.

And, if you're playing this game under different rules (e.g. you and I throw the dice together, and it's possible for us to draw), the calculations will be different.

Now, for another example with the 60%... let's say we change the game rules a bit. This time, you and I throw fair d10s. We throw the dies together. Winning condition is if the dice throw is >4. Tie is allowed.

So, the possibilities..

I throw a >4, you throw a >4, tie
I throw a >4, you throw a <=4, I win
I throw a <=4, you throw a >4, you win
Both of us throw a <=4, nobody wins

P[1] = 0.6 * 0.6
P[2] = 0.6 * 0.4
P[3] = 0.4 * 0.6
P[4] = 0.4 * 0.4
Sum of P[x] = 1

So, provided I haven't made any mistakes this morning, the second game is fair and the probability for one of us winning is 24%.

I think I've got this.

Example: you have a 10% chance of winning a game of chance. Your friend also has a 10% chance of winning this game.

Ancalagon

2011-05-05, 10:53 AM

Dr. Math's description only applies if the events are mutually exclusive and one of them must happen...

This is correct in this case. D&D is binary, EVERYTHING is a yes or no question (was the safe made, was the SR overcome, etc). But you can also model other probablities that are not binary in D&D.

The probability is a tree, where the path on each branch is a multiplication of all single probabilities - and the outcomes in the end is an addition of all branches you like to include (and the total of ALL branches is 1).

Assume Vaasuvius has two rounds to cast his "kill spell" and each casting has a chance of 40% to succeed.

We get three branches now:
A Success (nothing more, as the battle is ended after a success).
B Failure Succes
C Failure Failure

The probability for path A is 0.4, for B it is 0.6 * 0.4 = 0.24 (aka 24%) and for C it is 0.6 * 0.6 = 0.36.
What we WANT is the probability to succeed AT ALL in these two rounds, so we add the successful paths, which are A and B. A + B = 0.4 + 0.24, which is 0.64 (aka 64%).

It gets more complicated if you throw in saving throws, concentration checks, iniative, but the basic principle stays the same. You can create all possible paths - and add up the ones that interest you afterwards (like to find out how likely it is that V dies, has no success, has success etc).

theNater

2011-05-05, 10:58 AM

I think I've got this.

Example: you have a 10% chance of winning a game of chance. Your friend also has a 10% chance of winning this game. Would you say that there is a 20% chance that either of you will win? I'd say yes. Would you say that instead there's a (10% + (90%*10%)) = 19% chance of either of you winning? I'd say no. Because the events are independent; regardless of how you perform, your friend still has the same win chance, and vice versa.

Now if we increase the chance to 60% and 60%: why should we suddenly multiply instead of adding?

84% success rate would only apply to cases when the second Cone of Cold would only be cast if the first one failed to penetrate SR. But the thing is, the second Cone will be cast regardless of whether the first failed or not. So the two chances are not interdependent, and should be added rather than multiplied.

Thoughts?
Mutual exclusivity needs to be considered. Can both of you win the game in the same play?

Note that in the 60% and 60% case, it must be possible for you to both win in a single play, because you'd expect to rack up 12 wins between you for every 10 games you play. There are, in fact, four possible scenarios:

1)You both win. Probability of this is 0.6*0.6=0.36
2)You both lose. Probability of this is 0.4*0.4=0.16
3)You win and your friend loses. Probability of this is 0.6*0.4=0.24
4)You lose and your friend wins. Probability of this is 0.4*0.6=0.24

Note that 0.36+0.16+0.24+0.24=1.00, as there is a 100% chance that one of these four things will happen. The chance that at least one of you will win is what you get when you leave out the "both lose" chance, so 0.36+0.24+0.24=0.84, or an 84% chance that one or both of you win.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 11:00 AM

Assume Vaasuvius has two rounds to cast his "kill spell" and each casting has a chance of 40% to succeed.

No, actually each casting has a 60% chance of success (or so) vs. the drow's SR.

Mutual exclusivity needs to be considered. Can both of you win the game in the same play?

Yes. Both spells can succeed, if that's what you mean.

pendell

2011-05-05, 11:01 AM

theNater

2011-05-05, 11:03 AM

This is correct in this case. D&D is binary, EVERYTHING is a yes or no question (was the safe made, was the SR overcome, etc). But you can also model other probablities that are not binary in D&D.

The probability is a tree, where the path on each branch is a multiplication of all single probabilities - and the outcomes in the end is an addition of all branches you like to include (and the total of ALL branches is 1).

Assume Vaasuvius has two rounds to cast his "kill spell" and each casting has a chance of 40% to succeed.

We get three branches now:
A Success (nothing more, as the battle is ended after a success).
B Failure Succes
C Failure Failure

The probability for path A is 0.4, for B it is 0.6 * 0.4 = 0.24 (aka 24%) and for C it is 0.6 * 0.6 = 0.36.
What we WANT is the probability to succeed AT ALL in these two rounds, so we add the successful paths, which are A and B. A + B = 0.4 + 0.24, which is 0.64 (aka 64%).

It gets more complicated if you throw in saving throws, concentration checks, iniative, but the basic principle stays the same. You can create all possible paths - and add up the ones that interest you afterwards (like to find out how likely it is that V dies, has no success, has success etc).
I think we're looking at a 60% chance for V to beat the SR. Running these calculations on that gives:

Path A 0.6
Path B 0.4*0.6=0.24
Path C 0.4*0.4=0.16

And, of course, 0.6 + 0.24=0.84.

That's one of my favorite things about math: you can do the same problem multiple ways.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 11:08 AM

And, of course, 0.6 + 0.24=0.84.

Okay, so you're saying, if I have a 10% chance of winning, and Bob has a 10% chance of winning, and our wins are not in any way interdependent (we're not playing against each other, etc. - let's say we're participating in two separate, but exactly the same lotteries) - then the chance of one of us winning is 19%, and not 20%?

So by simply comparing me to Bob, you take out 0.5% out of my and Bob'd individual probabilities of winning?

I'm not convinced.

In which cases do we add probabilities then?

martinkou

2011-05-05, 11:19 AM

Ancalagon

2011-05-05, 11:22 AM

Okay, so you're saying, if I have a 10% chance of winning, and Bob has a 10% chance of winning, and our wins are not in any way interdependent (we're not playing against each other, etc. - let's say we're participating in two separate, but exactly the same lotteries) - then the chance of one of us winning is 19%, and not 20%?

Each of you has a chance of 10% to win. Which means the chance that BOTH of you win is 0.1 * 0.1, = 0.01 (1%), the chance of you winning but Bob losing is 0.1 * 0.9 = 9% and the chance of you losing and bob winning is the same (just 0.9 * 0.1). In total, you have a chance that either ones of you wins 1 + 9 + 9 = 19%.

So by simply comparing me to Bob, you take out 0.5% out of my and Bob'd individual probabilities of winning?

Be careful, in probability, it highly depends on what question you are asking! Here you ask "If each one has a chance of winning @10% each, what is the chance anyone of us two takes a price home?"
Your individual probabilties are not touched at all by this! You calculate what the TOTAL probability for a certain event is, based on the probabilities for each of the partial events. You do not "lose" 1% anywhere.

In which cases do we add probabilities then?

As I explained: If several paths in your question have different ways to happen but have (to you! here it becomes important again what you ask!) the same meaning to you.

For example, you could have a setup with the outcomes A = 40%, B = 10% and C = 50%.
A could be "I meet some random guy and he beats me in the nuts"
B could be "The random guy beats me on the shoulder"
C could be "The guy beats me not at all"
(Note: Any of the three WILL happen)

The individual probabilties stand as they are, your question determines which events you add. You could ask "What is the chance the guy does not hit me at all?", which would be C.
OR you could ask "What is the chance the guy hits me (anywhere)?", that would be A + B.

If you have a further question, I'll draw the tree/paths for you.

FujinAkari

2011-05-05, 11:36 AM

Let me explain it a slightly different way:

What is the chance you will lose the lottery: 90%
What is the chance Bob will lose the lottery: 90%
What is the chance both will lose the lottery: Well, if we start with your 90%, then we assume Bob will lose 90% of the time, we end up with 90 * .9, or 81%

Probability is not cumulative, you take the probable rate of the first event and then multiply it by the probable rate of subsequent events to determine the probability of a specific sequence of events.

To think of it still another way, take a ten sided die (0 - 9), there is a 10% chance to roll 0. Roll it twice, you end up with a table like this:

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59
60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69
70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

Now, what percentage of those results rolled a "0"? well, the top 10 and the left 10 (but "00" is in both columns so only counts once) so 19. 19%

BlackestOfMages

2011-05-05, 11:42 AM

why, why must you quote that, it brings back bad memories of AS drama,...

also, this thread seems to have derailed into an argument about statistics*, which I think should end, so we can get back to V getting his backside kicked by Zz

also, does anyone else remeber the whole thing that Quar, being a lawful undwerworld thingy, still owes V one favour/task that he is bound to complete, by being a lawful demon thingy, which could prove intresting, as Quar has shown hiimself to be a bit more potent than your average familiar, and I'm sure zz wouldn't expect it

@ pendel: that could be done, hell, prior level 10 mages, I'd say it was easier than building a chess program, simply because the number of possible moves, and the number of restrictions, in DnD is far less. a similar system to dnd (one move, one action, grid based) is already used in the final fantasy tactics video games. might be fun to try though, but I'd say colleage level, not university. epic level, with the bedazaling amount of abilities, or mass battles (like the size the warhammer expansion was made to handle) would be uni level

*also, Ancalagon is kinda right. unless one of the 60% woul only occur because the other one failed, then it'd stay 60%

Blisstake

2011-05-05, 11:48 AM

Jay R

2011-05-05, 12:16 PM

Also, with you first example, it is a 19% chance. Whether the events are independent or not is completely irrelevant.

Not true. Independence is the exact issue. Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the other.

Game A (independent events): Each of us rolls a d10, and we each win if we roll a 1.
Prob(I get 1, you don't) = 9%
Prob (you get 1, I don't) = 9%
Prob(we each get 1) = 1%

Prob (you win) = 10%
Prob(I win) = 10%
Prob(we both win) = 1%
Prob(at least one of wins) = 19%

Game B (dependent events): Somebody rolls a d10. If it's a 1, you win. If it's a 2, I win. If it's anything else, we both lose.

Prob (you win) = 10%
Prob(I win) = 10%
Prob(we both win) = 0%
Prob(at least one of wins) = 20%

Game C (also dependent events): Somebody rolls a d10. If it's a 1, we both win. If it's anything else, we both lose.

Prob (you win) = 10%
Prob(I win) = 10%
Prob(we both win) = 10%
Prob(at least one of wins) = 10%

Blisstake

2011-05-05, 12:25 PM

I meant in that particular instance :smallsigh:

Yes, I understand how probability works.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 12:31 PM

Each of you has a chance of 10% to win. Which means the chance that BOTH of you win is 0.1 * 0.1, = 0.01 (1%), the chance of you winning but Bob losing is 0.1 * 0.9 = 9% and the chance of you losing and bob winning is the same (just 0.9 * 0.1). In total, you have a chance that either ones of you wins 1 + 9 + 9 = 19%.

You calculated both of us winning as a simple “win”, in the same category as “one win/one loss”. Whereas in fact it’s a DOUBLE WIN. There is a difference between the two which can't be ignored when we apply probabilities in real life.

E.g.: there’s a 10% chance of winning 100 dollars per lottery ticket. The average amount of $$$ I’m going to win is 10 per ticket. For Bob, it’s the same – 10 per ticket.

If we “pool together” our resources and buy two tickets, the chance of a win happening will be 19%. But 1% of these 19% is the chance that BOTH of them win, thus bringing us not 100, but 200 dollars. So, the average amount of money from this exercise will not be 100*19% = 19 dollars, but (100*18%) + (100*1%*2) = 20 dollars. Thus, in order to properly calculate the material result, we need to add probabilities, not multiply them.

Same goes for 60% and 60%: out of 84%, 36% is “double win”, i.e. double damage. So the actual average damage will be 84% + 36% = 120%, which is what I put in the original calculation.

So: 36% of two Cones hitting; 48% of one Cone hitting, the other failing; 16% of no Cones hitting; average damage across the board = 120%.

So, when calculating material results (e.g. winnings from a lottery or a game of chance), then actual adding of probabilities is needed to fully represent the situation.

Moreover: even in terms of pure statistics, when performing such calculations, results should also be “weighted”. A double win should not be equated to a single win.

For example, you could have a setup with the outcomes A = 40%, B = 10% and C = 50%.
A could be "I meet some random guy and he beats me in the nuts"
B could be "The random guy beats me on the shoulder"
C could be "The guy beats me not at all"
(Note: Any of the three WILL happen)

Yes, that is obviously a situation where probabilities should be added (good example). But, IMHO, it's not the only case when adding probabilities is needed. And in particular when you calculate average damage in D&D, simply multiplying probabilities does not fully do the trick.

_______________

That's because if you add the chance of both attempts succeeding it will add up to 120%. Chance of 1 succeeding is 84%, chance of 2 succeeding is 36%. 36 + 84 is 120.

I'm not sure if it's that simple; or, rather, a slightly different wording may be required. The chance of 2 succeeding is, actually, already subsumed (included) in the 84%, which is composed of: 36% (both succeed) + 48% one succeeds, one fails). What is not included in the 84% is the effect of 36% being a "double hit" which produces double damage.

Blisstake

2011-05-05, 12:34 PM

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 12:39 PM

Okay, so you understand how it works. The thing is, V would only need one Power Word Stun to have an effect. Since more wouldn't really do anything, it doesn't matter if there's a chance he can get Z twice. What matters is that there's a 84% of one PWS having an effect.

Wow, this thread is fast :smallbiggrin: we all love our math, huh? :smallamused:

In case of a Save-or-Lose like PW:Stun, yes, it doesn't actually matter, and 84% is a good approximation of success chances. In case of spamming damage spells, it's more complicated, since we also need to take into account the average damage each spell produces and compare it to Z's probable average hitpoints. That's where adding probabilities actually plays a role, in my view.

Blisstake

2011-05-05, 12:48 PM

And then keep in mind that to prolong the battle, there's a good chance they're rolling really low numbers on damage. Plot > Rules in this particular webcomic.

Also, I'm starting to suspect V's picked up a con item. He certainly survived a lot of damage against Xykon (including a meteor swarm when it looked like he was finished.)

And against that giant devil as well...

Xapi

2011-05-05, 01:00 PM

Neutral Evil, what you're talking about is something ressembling Mathematical Expectancy or Mathematical Hope (I'm translating from spanish so I don't know wich is correct).

The idea that an event has a 120% chance of happening is just a probability nightmare, that will get you failed on any course.

To work as you mean to work, you must first calculate the mathematical expectancy of an outcome, and then you can add up mathematical expectancies for a mathematical expectancy of the two (or N) events.

(Example: A Fighter hits a target with a 60% chance, and damage is 1d10 + 3. If he hits, the expected damage -average if he where to hit a large number of times- is (5.5+3)*0.6 = 5.1, so if he where to attempt the hit 10 times, it would be expected that he inflicts 51 damage.)

You will also have to consider the variance of this, because if you can be certain that you'll make between 48 and 54 damage, it's not the same as making between 1 and 101 damage.

However, in this case, the mathematical expectancy for a Power Word: Stun is: V wins the battle 6 out of 10 times. And also, he won't cast it a second time if he already won. So the correct analisis is the one where you take the probability that he will succeed the first time, and then add it to the probability that he will fail the first and then succed the second, as has been calculated by others.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 01:08 PM

V has learnt a lesson. Inevitably, a character who has learnt a lesson has to be more effective than before.

So far, V is his old inefficient self. He's even more inefficient, because now he doesn't even fight.

"Supporting allies" is a cleric's job (actually not even that, but nevermind, we're not talking that level of optimization here). Normally, Elan should have been the one to cast Break Enchantment - either take it as a spell, or have a scroll handy. V's task as a pure high-level wizard ought to be steamrolling the opposition. V, however, proceeds from the assumption that he cannot win against Z - despite the fact that, in all probability, he has at least 2 levels of Wizard over Z due to the Drow Level Adjustment, and Spell Resistance is easily overcome by just taking a feat or learning some spells.

However, V basically sacrifices himself by helping allies escape while allowing the enemy two entire rounds (not counting the surprise round) to attack him unhindered. If Z was in any way competent and didn't dawdle, instead readying an action to electrocute V every time the elf casts a spell, V would already be dead.

If this is the level of effectiveness of the "new V", I want the old blaster V back! :smallmad:

Therefore, I think V will be able to, if not win, distract Zz'dtri long enough for Elan to find and warn Durkon. :smallsmile:

In order to find and warn Durkon, V could have used his Raven familiar.

_______________

(Example: A Fighter hits a target with a 60% chance, and damage is 1d10 + 3. If he hits, the expected damage -average if he where to hit a large number of times- is (5.5+3)*0.6 = 5.1, so if he where to attempt the hit 10 times, it would be expected that he inflicts 51 damage.)

You also have to take into account the critical hits :smallbiggrin:

However, in this case, the mathematical expectancy for a Power Word: Stun is: V wins the battle 6 out of 10 times. And also, he won't cast it a second time if he already won. So the correct analisis is the one where you take the probability that he will succeed the first time, and then add it to the probability that he will fail the first and then succed the second, as has been calculated by others.

Again, this is true for the Power Words, when one success basically ends the encounter. When we talk about direct damage spells, then we need to more accurately represent the probable average damage, and that's where adding probabilities comes into play (to properly represent the "double hit" damage). I've reflected this in my original estimations and proposals for V's tactics on page 3.

Xapi

2011-05-05, 01:30 PM

Again, this is true for the Power Words, when one success basically ends the encounter. When we talk about direct damage spells, then we need to more accurately represent the probable average damage, and that's where adding probabilities comes into play (to properly represent the "double hit" damage). I've reflected this in my original estimations and proposals for V's tactics on page 3.

Yes, but the discussion on probability started here:

3. Power Word: Stun (2 casts gives 120% chance of success, and V was
already shown using 2 Standard Action spells);

You can't have over a 100% chance of success. The actual chance of one of his spells being a success (if he casts 2) is 84%.

I see that you edited it on your original post, but the quote is still there, so you can just admit you were wrong and move on to other, more fruitful matters.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 01:39 PM

you can just admit you were wrong and move on to other, more fruitful matters.

The question isn't about who is wrong (from the outset I said that I'm not 100% sure of this entire probability thing), but in finding out the "truth" - i.e. how to really most efficiently calculate these chances for V vs. Z.

I have already said that 84% is probably the right way to represent the effect of the Save-or-Lose spells, and edited my evaluation accordingly to reflect this. When talking about damage spells, however, a more complex representation is required, which involved adding probabilities.

Instead of playing the "right and wrong police", why don't you contribute something fruitful to the discussion?

Blisstake

2011-05-05, 01:45 PM

I see that you edited it on your original post, but the quote is still there, so you can just admit you were wrong and move on to other, more fruitful matters.

Or we could just drop it, and move on without confronting anyone over an internet argument, that largely seems the result of a miscommunication.

Ancalagon

2011-05-05, 01:52 PM

No, actually each casting has a 60% chance of success (or so) vs. the drow's SR.

In all honesty: D'uh! It was an example. As you are able to type, I also guess you are able to substitute fitting numbers for whatever example you might mind...

You calculated both of us winning as a simple “win”, in the same category as “one win/one loss”. Whereas in fact it’s a DOUBLE WIN. There is a difference between the two which can't be ignored when we apply probabilities in real life.

No, read what my question was: I asked "what is the chance someone of you wins?" The correct answer to this is "If either of you wins OR if both of you win".
That is what I asked and what I answered. If you ask: "What is the chance either of us wins (but not both)?" you do not have to add the 1% of course.
I can do that as you said you play in independent lotteries, that was YOUR premise.

About your Dollars: We have not yet started to connect any actual result to the probability! I did not yet do it, read what I wrote, read what questions I answered - and you will see what applies to it and what does not. So far, I have explained to you how probability works (as that was what you were unclear about).
But, I might say this, for someone who just was as unclear about how the stuff works, you know are pretty knowledgeable on explaining me what I did wrong (by addressing things I did not talk about).

I'd like to ask one question for you:
What does a chance of 120% mean?

To make things a bit easier for you: "Probability" is defined (defined!) between (and including) 0 and 1. There is no "probability" >1. It does not exist.
Your problem here is that you mix probability with absolutes ($ or damage) and instead of a probability-% you switch midstream to damage-%-relative to some base damage. Both are % - but they are totally different things.

If you have a specific question when causes what, I will gladly explain and calculate things. But if you go on mixing things wildly, it's going to be too much headache for me to sort out what you meant to answer that in a meaningful manner.

And in particular when you calculate average damage in D&D, simply multiplying probabilities does not fully do the trick.

I think I failed to explain properly what I wanted to explain. I never said there was no place for addition.

Xapi

2011-05-05, 01:52 PM

The question isn't about who is wrong (from the outset I said that I'm not 100% sure of this entire probability thing), but in finding out the "truth" - i.e. how to really most efficiently calculate these chances for V vs. Z.

I have already said that 84% is probably the right way to represent the effect of the Save-or-Lose spells, and edited my evaluation accordingly to reflect this. When talking about damage spells, however, a more complex representation is required, which involved adding probabilities.

Instead of playing the "right and wrong police", why don't you contribute something fruitful to the discussion?

I'm afraid I'm not a proper optimizer, so I wouldn't have much to contribute.

What I would reccomend though is that if you want to properly represent through statistics the effect of piling up blast spells, you do it in a form that is both matemathically and intuitively more accurate:

Calculate the expected damage taken from a single attack, considering all that affects it (SR, touch attacks, saves, etc), and then assume that this is the damage you'll be putting out each round.

So, you'll have a small table that tells you that, by V using blast spells, Z would take X damage on round 1, 2X dmg on round 2, 3X damage on round 3, and compare that to the HP Z should have, this would tell you at wich round Z should die from V's attacks. Do the same exercise but for Z hitting V, add Yukyuk to the mix, and you can tell who is Edit: more likely to be victorious.

Edit: Someone who knows more about probability than myself will actually be able to calculate the chance that each side wins using variancies and stuff.

Ancalagon

2011-05-05, 01:58 PM

Does such a thing already exist? Might make a cool graduate-level university project.

Actually, I think some hobby-programmer can throw a prototype together in an afternoon and a long evening.

First, create a BIG tree with all possibilities. It gets very big for more than one player and casters and if you can move people around. But with certain limitations, it should be doable (and also managable with modern amounts of RAM).

Then, seek the best path (like one that decreases the other guys chances by applying debuffs etc). What is not going to be trivial is adding more than two characters. THAT'LL need an IBM-research-department.

But all in all it's an awesome project.

Xapi

2011-05-05, 02:01 PM

Or we could just drop it, and move on without confronting anyone over an internet argument, that largely seems the result of a miscommunication.

Sorry, there are just some things that push my wrong buttons. I personally disagree that this is a matter of miscomunication, but I can accept that I might take some things too seriously.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 02:04 PM

Calculate the expected damage taken from a single attack, considering all that affects it (SR, touch attacks, saves, etc), and then assume that this is the damage you'll be putting out each round.

That is exactly what I did (SR and saves are accounted for, touch attacks are not used, damage is compared to Z's probable HP), but instead of a "per round" average, I took the known amount of time available for V so far (2 rounds) and calculated a) individual attack averages, b) "across the board" averages spanning the entire 2-round timeframe, so as to find out - as per the question posed to me - what could have been done during this period.

The conclusion so far: not counting Z's magical defenses (of which we so far know zero, except Shield which is not relevant to the actions I proposed), and not relying on anything outside V's known stat block, V's chance of winning vs. Zz'dtri was around 90%, if he was actually attacking instead of doing stuff better done by the bard and the familiar.

If the layout was not to your liking, well, I don't have the kind of time on my hands to draw tables in ASCII. I think it was clear enough, and will perhaps improve it in the future.

___________

...But all in all it's an awesome project.

I think it's called an AI :smallbiggrin:

And probably instead of directly building a "database" of all possibilities, some sort of logical approximation may be used. E.g.: for a Wizard it's in most cases pointless to engage in melee, so this entire branch will be ignored unless specific conditions are met (such as: being out of spells; being in an anti-magic field; etc.).

Da'Shain

2011-05-05, 02:08 PM

So far, V is his old inefficient self. He's even more inefficient, because now he doesn't even fight.

"Supporting allies" is a cleric's job (actually not even that, but nevermind, we're not talking that level of optimization here). Normally, Elan should have been the one to cast Break Enchantment - either take it as a spell, or have a scroll handy. V's task as a pure high-level wizard ought to be steamrolling the opposition. V, however, proceeds from the assumption that he cannot win against Z - despite the fact that, in all probability, he has at least 2 levels of Wizard over Z due to the Drow Level Adjustment, and Spell Resistance is easily overcome by just taking a feat or learning some spells.

However, V basically sacrifices himself by helping allies escape while allowing the enemy two entire rounds (not counting the surprise round) to attack him unhindered. If Z was in any way competent and didn't dawdle, instead readying an action to electrocute V every time the elf casts a spell, V would already be dead.

If this is the level of effectiveness of the "new V", I want the old blaster V back! :smallmad:I'd heavily disagree. V and Haley (and Elan, as much as he ever contributes) have determined that the LG is choosing now to spring the attack that they have been planning for some time. This means both that the entire Order is at risk and thus it is vital to keep the healer/resurrecter as safe as possible, and that the LG have most likely prepared for this battle extensively. While it's a possibility that V could destroy Zz'dtri with one spell if he gets lucky, it's not a sure thing even assuming Zz'dtri is totally unprepared and doesn't have nasty surprises waiting when V starts blasting, as V is known to do.

By thinking of the party first, V is ensuring that, even should he fail, the rest of the party has a better chance of succeeding. And V has a decent chance of failing; even if Zz'dtri is 2 levels lower than him, he's still a dangerous opponent as he proved last time, and again has been preparing for this for a long time.

Also, V now has a significant chance of escaping if things go pear-shaped as well, with a 70-ft per round fly speed from the haste and almost certainly at least one invisibility spell prepared. From the looks of his wounds (or lack thereof), either Zz'dtri's green lightning doesn't do much damage or V already had some sort of energy resistance up.

V might not be acting in the absolute optimal fashion, but he's acquitting himself decently so far. And, of course, this is his first real opportunity to shine since his battle against Xykon; it's possible that he'll get steamrolled by his opponents performing the exact correct moves every turn, but I doubt it, and predict that worst case he'll be sent running while invisible.

Xapi

2011-05-05, 02:10 PM

That is exactly what I did (SR and saves are accounted for, touch attacks are not used, damage is compared to Z's probable HP), but instead of a "per round" average, I took the known amount of time available for V so far (2 rounds) and calculated a) individual attack averages, b) "across the board" averages spanning the entire 2-round timeframe, so as to find out - as per the question posed to me - what could have been done during this period.

The conclusion so far: not counting Z's magical defenses (of which we so far know zero, except Shield which is not relevant to the actions I proposed), and not relying on anything outside V's known stat block, V's chance of winning vs. Zz'dtri was around 90%, if he was actually attacking instead of doing stuff better done by the bard and the familiar.

If the layout was not to your liking, well, I don't have the kind of time on my hands to draw tables in ASCII. I think it was clear enough, and will perhaps improve it in the future.

The only thing not to my liking was that you proposed a 120% chance of something happening. I had no problem with the rest, I didn't go over it in detail because, as I said, I'm not really a good "tactician" and I believe most of it would just go over my head.

martinkou

2011-05-05, 02:34 PM

Yes, it's called expected value (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value), which can be derived from probability of events.

Expected value, again, is a precise mathematical term with a similar but different meaning to probabilities. It's again one of those things people get mixed up all the time.

Both measures can be verified experimentally (i.e. they have real world consequences) if you did the modeling correctly, you understand what they really mean, and so you know what you should look for in an experiment (e.g. Does A die? or, how much damage does A get? Two very different questions). You can't just hand-wave "we non-math people don't care about E[X] in this case" or "we non-math people don't care about P[X] in this case".

The thing with all these probability math is that, normal people think they're simple - but once you've learned about it, you'll find there're tons of pitfalls you never knew and it's extremely easy to screw up. There was a famous TV show (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem) involving probability that tricked tons of math PhDs into arriving at the wrong conclusion. But if you know a programming language or two (like, Python) and if you're able to write a simple simulation model of the events, you'll see that the probabilities, expected values and all the bull**** the math people said actually have real world consequences.

Neutral Evil, what you're talking about is something ressembling Mathematical Expectancy or Mathematical Hope (I'm translating from spanish so I don't know wich is correct).

The idea that an event has a 120% chance of happening is just a probability nightmare, that will get you failed on any course.

To work as you mean to work, you must first calculate the mathematical expectancy of an outcome, and then you can add up mathematical expectancies for a mathematical expectancy of the two (or N) events.

(Example: A Fighter hits a target with a 60% chance, and damage is 1d10 + 3. If he hits, the expected damage -average if he where to hit a large number of times- is (5.5+3)*0.6 = 5.1, so if he where to attempt the hit 10 times, it would be expected that he inflicts 51 damage.)

You will also have to consider the variance of this, because if you can be certain that you'll make between 48 and 54 damage, it's not the same as making between 1 and 101 damage.

However, in this case, the mathematical expectancy for a Power Word: Stun is: V wins the battle 6 out of 10 times. And also, he won't cast it a second time if he already won. So the correct analisis is the one where you take the probability that he will succeed the first time, and then add it to the probability that he will fail the first and then succed the second, as has been calculated by others.

Xapi

2011-05-05, 02:53 PM

Yes, it's called expected value (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value), which can be derived from probability of events.".

Thanks, that's what I was going for.

JSSheridan

2011-05-05, 03:01 PM

A Greater Dispell Magic on Z would be a good choice, since it is not subject to spell resistance. If V could get Z to follow him up 50 meters or so and then dispell Z's flight spell, the fall could kill Z. Z would have a chance to recast though if he has one prepared. Or even Feather Fall.

But I don't see how it matters. If V focuses on one opponent now, the other will whittle away at V's health. These two are probably just here to keep him occupied.

I suspected before, since the LG was a pawn of the IFCC, but now I'm certain that V's in no real danger. He'll get roughed up, but won't be killed. Quarr won't allow it. Nale's targets are the three empires, Tarquin and his associates, and Elan. Nale would like the arena for a place to kill Tarquin since 1000's of people would see it.

Lord Ruby34

2011-05-05, 03:08 PM

I've seen alot of responses about what V's optimal moves are for this fight, but no one seems to have taken into account that she might only have one or two offensive spells prepared. No fireballs, no tentacles, and no disintegrates. She might only have the spell's she had left over after the prison break. Even if she did have a full days spells prepared she wasn't expecting to fight today.

I find it unlikely that V can do more than hold Z off.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 03:13 PM

In all honesty: D'uh! It was an example. As you are able to type, I also guess you are able to substitute fitting numbers for whatever example you might mind...

I am in fact able to do that :smallbiggrin: I just thought that at some stage the numbers might have mixed up, and people started thinking that 60% was the chance of the Spell Resistance succeeding in resisting the spell, not the penetration chance.

No, read what my question was: I asked "what is the chance someone of you wins?" The correct answer to this is "If either of you wins OR if both of you win".
That is what I asked and what I answered. If you ask: "What is the chance either of us wins (but not both)?" you do not have to add the 1% of course.

You see, there's an issue right here. When calculating your probability, you're not making any difference between cases when one of us wins, and when both of us win. For you, it's the same statistical "win". Whereas for me, it's different because in some cases we get "double wins" which have more "weight" than "single wins".

Sorry for the ad hoc terminology, I'm really not that good in probability mathematics and don't feel the energy to do more research ATM.

About your Dollars: We have not yet started to connect any actual result to the probability! I did not yet do it, read what I wrote, read what questions I answered - and you will see what applies to it and what does not. So far, I have explained to you how probability works (as that was what you were unclear about).

Well, I knew of course about the multiplication of probabilities (that's what I used in calculating the average damage for the direct damage spells); it's just that, for some reason, it appeared to me that in a case of 2 independent effects I need to add the probabilities instead of multiplying them. Obviously, I was wrong to put something like a "120% chance of success". Now I'm trying, with your help, to put into proper words and argumentation the gut feeling which I have that multiplication of probabilities does not fully cover what we want to do here.

I'd like to ask one question for you:
What does a chance of 120% mean?

First of all, thank you for your explanations. Below I will try to give my view on the subject.

Let me start with what I personally see as the paradox of probability.

You are throwing three coins. Two landed tails. What is the probability of the third coin also landing tails? According to multiplication of probabilities - 12,5%.

But at the same time, each coin's probability to land tails is 50%. Including the third coin. Whatever the outcome of the other tossings, it is still 50% for each and every coin.

Now, what is a 120% chance? In short, it's a 120% chance to get 100% effect :smallbiggrin: i.e. it translates into 120% average effect.

Okay, I'll try to explain. Back to the lottery example.

______________

In lottery A one ticket gives you a 10% chance to win $100. In lottery B, an equally-priced ticket gives you a 5% chance to win $200. The average winnings for both lotteries will equal 10 dollars per ticket. Right?

Now let's take two lottery A tickets (the 10% ones). By multiplication of probabilities, two tickets if taken together have a 19% combined chance of either (a) one of them winning, or (b) both of them winning. Right?

But: since among these 19% there is a 1% chance to win double prize money (both tickets win), the actual average winnings are still $10 per ticket, and not $9.50 as the "19% chance to win" would lead us to believe. It's actually like this: (18% chance to win $100) + (1% chance to win $200) = $20 per two tickets, or 20% chance to win $100.

So, even though there's only a 19% chance of any "wins" actually happening, the effect is equal to having a single 20% chance of winning $100. See where I'm going here?

Now let's suppose that by some miracle or cheat I got two tickets each with a 60% chance of winning $100, i.e. $60 per ticket. If we multiply the probabilities and leave it at that (not taking into account the double wins), we'll get $84 as the average win for both tickets together; whereas in fact, $60 per ticket translates into $120 per two tickets. This effect is statistically equal to "a 120% chance to win $100". I.e. your win = $100 * 120% = $120.
______________

I understand I'm going out on a leg here. And of course, strictly from a probability theory point of view, "120% probability" is impossible. However, once we take into account the material effect, statistics actually make it possible. And maybe "probability" is the wrong term to use here, some other chance-effect related term might be in order. EDIT: What Martinkou suggested, "expected value", might be a better term.

Sorry if I was unclear, again, I'm not a specialist in this kind of math. This is just how it appears to me.

To make things a bit easier for you: "Probability" is defined (defined!) between (and including) 0 and 1. There is no "probability" >1. It does not exist. Your problem here is that you mix probability with absolutes ($ or damage) and instead of a probability-% you switch midstream to damage-%-relative to some base damage. Both are % - but they are totally different things.

What we need to do here is properly calculate the effect. For damage spells, we need to take into account the amount of damage; for Save-or-Lose, the chances of beating the saving throws. Simply saying "84% chance of either one or both spells penetrating Spell Resistance" is not enough, we need to go further.

_______________

Probability is definitely not subjective

Tell that to the Bayesians :smalltongue:

Goosefeather

2011-05-05, 03:39 PM

Let me start with what I personally see as the paradox of probability.

You are throwing three coins. Two landed tails. What is the probability of the third coin also landing tails? According to multiplication of probabilities - 12,5%.

But at the same time, each coin's probability to land tails is 50%. Including the third coin. Whatever the outcome of the other tossings, it is still 50% for each and every coin.

I'm gonna stop you there - that's what is known as the Gambler's Fallacy.

The probability of throwing three coins and having all three come up tails is indeed 12.5%

However, each coin is independent of the others, and has a 50% chance of coming heads and a 50% chance of coming up tails.

Regardless of any previous results, the third coin still has a 50% chance each way. The 12.5% only comes in before any coins have been tossed.

The terminology I learnt at school is this: Given that the first two have already come up tails, calculate the chance of the third doing the same.
There is a formula we can use here, but it's unnecessary as the events are independent of each other - the formula is only really useful when the events are not independent.

Sorry if I'm not explaining very clearly, it's a good 3 years since I studied all this stuff, and I've been following a humanities course since! :smalltongue:

Edit: So this is called 'conditional probability', and here's a couple (http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/conditional.html) of links (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability). The Venn diagram one could help you - with the coin example, just imagine a Venn diagram where none of the three circles intersect.

Nerdanel

2011-05-05, 03:39 PM

I think Zz'dtri's lightning spell is most likely Shadow Evocation. That would explain the apparent low damage. I think while V failed his reflex save for half damage, he made his will save for 20% damage.

Zz'dtri using a Shadow Evocation to fight V would be atrociously bad tactics, and that's exactly what V's continuing wellbeing indicates. Zz'dtri is fighting like the old V, but with the distinction that he isn't actually an Evoker and probably has Evocation as a banned school. Thus he apparently just blew two level 5 slots to cast twice a nerfed version of a level 3 spell. V as a wizard has a good will save too, which means that him making the will saves was by no means unexpected. On the other hand, Flesh to Stone has a fortitude save, which means that V would have had a much harder time saving against that.

The probability discussion is getting really sprawling, but I see that there's some confusion between the concepts of probability and expected value. In V's case he just needs to drop Zz'dtri - he doesn't benefit from dealing excess damage on Zz'dtri's corpse. Since D&D characters are fully functional as long as they are at positive hit points, we can treat V's success or failure defeating Zz'dtri as an on/off thing.

Now for some math:

If the probability of something happening is x (and the tries are independent like separate dice throws or separate D&D spells getting through) and there are two cases where x will happen or not...

The probability of x happening twice = x*x

The probability of x NOT happening: 1 - x

The probability of x happening zero times (equal to not-x happening twice) = (1-x)*(1-x)

The probability of x happening at least once (equal to not-x NOT happening twice) = 1 - (1-x)*(1-x)

pendell

2011-05-05, 03:51 PM

Actually, I think some hobby-programmer can throw a prototype together in an afternoon and a long evening.

First, create a BIG tree with all possibilities. It gets very big for more than one player and casters and if you can move people around. But with certain limitations, it should be doable (and also managable with modern amounts of RAM).

Then, seek the best path (like one that decreases the other guys chances by applying debuffs etc). What is not going to be trivial is adding more than two characters. THAT'LL need an IBM-research-department.

But all in all it's an awesome project.

I agree. But I don't think creating a big tree with *all* possibilities is reasonable. I forget how many spell slots V has or how many potential actions V could take, but it would rapidly become intractable.

We need some way to generate a tree that has a short list of the most probable actions V would take in the first round. Have an evaluating function to determine the N most likely actions, then evaluate those actions the next level down. Repeat until search depth maximum is reached. Then take the action in this round that has the highest scoring branch.

The problem with this, of course, is that in excluding the least probable actions our AI opens itself wide to an adversary like Elan, who essentially acts in a random fashion.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

MesiDoomstalker

2011-05-05, 04:14 PM

I think the issue were coming to here is that we expect V to be perfectly optimized and his main goals is to defeat Z and Yukyuk once he made his entrance.

I'm not sure where the quote is, but the Giant made a point of saying that The Order are not optimized at all because if they were, they would overcome foes too easily and that would be boring.

@Nuetral Evil: If V started blasting like before, then all that ABD, devil-dealing, soul-spliced, lecturing lich chacter development would be COMPLETLY POINTLESS and more importantly a waste of not only the readers time and The Giant's as well. That whole arc was about V learning to use magic more porperly and that power doesn't matter on where it comes from, but how its used.

I personally V's actions in 790 are the best decision keeping this new lesson in mind and what V knows about his opponents. Somebody else mentioned that sending a warning to Durkon, the healer/Rezzer, is prudent as he is the only one that could reliably revive anybody if things go awry, or more so than they are now.

Somebody else mentioned using Blackwing as a messenger. That would be effective if anybody but V reckognized his existence. As it stands, no one but V and now Z and Quarr reckognize Blackwing as being real and thus Durkon would of ignored Blackwings message for whatever reason he's been ignoring Blackwing this entire time.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 04:19 PM

I'm gonna stop you there - that's what is known as the Gambler's Fallacy.

Oh goody, so it has a name. To think I came to the same conclusions all by myself :smallbiggrin:

The probability of throwing three coins and having all three come up tails is indeed 12.5% However, each coin is independent of the others, and has a 50% chance of coming heads and a 50% chance of coming up tails. Regardless of any previous results, the third coin still has a 50% chance each way. The 12.5% only comes in before any coins have been tossed.

Yep, that's exactly what I was talking about. In almost the same words.

About the 12.5 only being valid before the tossing, Shrodinger's cat comes to mind :smallbiggrin:

The terminology I learnt at school is this: Given that the first two have already come up tails, calculate the chance of the third doing the same. There is a formula we can use here, but it's unnecessary as the events are independent of each other - the formula is only really useful when the events are not independent.

So what was the right answer according to your schoolteacher? 12.5%, 50%? Or, 12.5% before and 50% after the tossing?

Edit: So this is called 'conditional probability', and here's a couple (http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/conditional.html) of links (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability). The Venn diagram one could help you - with the coin example, just imagine a Venn diagram where none of the three circles intersect.[/

Thanks, I'll be sure to look into that :smalleek:

__________________

I think the issue were coming to here is that we expect V to be perfectly optimized

OMG not this again.

No one's "expecting" V to be "perfectly optimized", period. The question was, and I quote:

How would *You* fight this battle if you were V? Given what we know of his spell list from class 'n level geekery, what is his/her best tactical options?

I hope this is clear now. Moving on.

and his main goals is to defeat Z and Yukyuk once he made his entrance.

And why wouldn't his main goal be defeating his enemies who are actively trying to kill him?

I'm not sure where the quote is, but the Giant made a point of saying that The Order are not optimized at all because if they were, they would overcome foes too easily and that would be boring.

Not unless the foes were optimized as well, but that's beside the point. Again, no one's claiming V is particularly optimized. In my calculations, I used the known statistics for V from the Class & Level Geekery thread.

@Nuetral Evil: If V started blasting like before, then all that ABD, devil-dealing, soul-spliced, lecturing lich chacter development would be COMPLETLY POINTLESS and more importantly a waste of not only the readers time and The Giant's as well. That whole arc was about V learning to use magic more porperly and that power doesn't matter on where it comes from, but how its used.

EXACTLY. And the proper use of magic is efficiently eliminating enemies and earning XP. Like Xykon keeps doing. Not trying to act as a third-tier support character. As a bard, Elan has access to both Haste and Break Enchantment. V should not have been bothering with these trivialities, instead focusing on killing the enemy.

I personally V's actions in 790 are the best decision keeping this new lesson in mind and what V knows about his opponents.

As demonstrated in this thread, V had like a 90% chance of taking out Z in the 2 rounds he spent flying around, reducing the statue, hasting Elan, and casting Stoneskin (which doesn't help against magical attacks, duh). If not for Zz'dtri's almost equal inefficiency, V'd be dead by now.

Also, what does V know about his opponents? Please share.

Somebody else mentioned that sending a warning to Durkon, the healer/Rezzer, is prudent as he is the only one that could reliably revive anybody if things go awry, or more so than they are now.

Tell me, what is more efficient: spend several arcs trying to collect 10,000 gp and get a single corpse resurrected, or simply defeat the enemies and not let any allies die in the first place?

Somebody else mentioned using Blackwing as a messenger.

No, that was also me :smallbiggrin:

That would be effective if anybody but V reckognized his existence.

Huh? Didn't Haley ask V about the familiar's name or something? Also, according to D&D rules the familiar is perfectly physical and not a figment of the wizard's imagination :smallbiggrin:

As it stands, no one but V and now Z and Quarr reckognize Blackwing as being real

Yeah, now also those two. Seriously, your theory about Blackwing being "not real" is going hard against reality.

Oh, and - if B's not real, who flew the phylactery? :smallbiggrin:

and thus Durkon would of ignored Blackwings message for whatever reason he's been ignoring Blackwing this entire time.

Maybe for the reason that Blackwing is a bird which V only recently started to actually keep around?

pendell

2011-05-05, 04:44 PM

So let me see if I understand this.

If I flip a coin, there is a 0.5 chance of heads + 0.5 of tails = 1.0 .

If I flip a coin 4 times, the likelyhood that all four will be tails is 1/16, or .0625.

Which means the probability that , if I flip four coins, I will get *at least* one head is .94.

HOWEVER, the probability that, if I have flipped three coins and had come up tails , there is still a 50-50 chance that the fourth coin will also be tails.The coin has no memory of the previous coin flips. So I shouldn't double my bet expecting it to come up tails this time.

Nevertheless, if I bet that, of four coin flips,at least one will be heads, that is a virtual certain bet, because the probability of such an occurrence is 0.94.

So therefore, if V fires two PWS he has a better chance of landing *at least one hit* than he does if he fires only one.

Is that correct?

Respectfully,

Brian P.

martinkou

2011-05-05, 04:57 PM

With reasonable rounding of the numbers, yes, you're correct.

So let me see if I understand this.

If I flip a coin, there is a 0.5 chance of heads + 0.5 of tails = 1.0 .

If I flip a coin 4 times, the likelyhood that all four will be tails is 1/16, or .0625.

Which means the probability that , if I flip four coins, I will get *at least* one head is .94.

HOWEVER, the probability that, if I have flipped three coins and had come up tails , there is still a 50-50 chance that the fourth coin will also be tails.The coin has no memory of the previous coin flips. So I shouldn't double my bet expecting it to come up tails this time.

Nevertheless, if I bet that, of four coin flips,at least one will be heads, that is a virtual certain bet, because the probability of such an occurrence is 0.94.

So therefore, if V fires two PWS he has a better chance of landing *at least one hit* than he does if he fires only one.

Is that correct?

Respectfully,

Brian P.

MesiDoomstalker

2011-05-05, 05:11 PM

OMG not this again.

No one's "expecting" V to be "perfectly optimized", period. The question was, and I quote:

I hope this is clear now. Moving on.

And why wouldn't his main goal be defeating his enemies who are actively trying to kill him

Not unless the foes were optimized as well, but that's beside the point. Again, no one's claiming V is particularly optimized. In my calculations, I used the known statistics for V from the Class & Level Geekery thread.

EXACTLY. And the proper use of magic is efficiently eliminating enemies and earning XP. Like Xykon keeps doing. Not trying to act as a third-tier support character. As a bard, Elan has access to both Haste and Break Enchantment. V should not have been bothering with these trivialities, instead focusing on killing the enemy.

As demonstrated in this thread, V had like a 90% chance of taking out Z in the 2 rounds he spent flying around, reducing the statue, hasting Elan, and casting Stoneskin (which doesn't help against magical attacks, duh). If not for Zz'dtri's almost equal inefficiency, V'd be dead by now.

Also, what does V know about his opponents? Please share.

Tell me, what is more efficient: spend several arcs trying to collect 10,000 gp and get a single corpse resurrected, or simply defeat the enemies and not let any allies die in the first place?

No, that was also me :smallbiggrin:

Huh? Didn't Haley ask V about the familiar's name or something? Also, according to D&D rules the familiar is perfectly physical and not a figment of the wizard's imagination :smallbiggrin:

Yeah, now also those two. Seriously, your theory about Blackwing being "not real" is going hard against reality.

Oh, and - if B's not real, who flew the phylactery? :smallbiggrin:

Maybe for the reason that Blackwing is a bird which V only recently started to actually keep around?

1: Your not V so your actions in V's place have no bearing on the situation.

2: The Big Picture is that Nale and Co. are attacking and that things can go awry and thus keeping the most powerful member in this situation in the game is a very prudent strategy and take precedence.

3: Your assuming that Elan has these spells. We have no indication that he does and as pointed out on several different threads, trying to cast a 1 min casting time spell in the middle of a fight, regardless if Elan somehow knew about Yukyuk, would of been pointless as one AoE spell from Z would be enough to stop the spell/song.

4: V Knows they are Nale's associates and thus Nale and the rest of his gang are sure to be targeting the rest of the Order, including the one member capable of providing reliable means of recovery. Elan's Mass Cure Light Wounds won't be nearly as effective as a full on Cleric. Your demonstration on this thread is making assumptions. I know your using Geekery thread but those are also based on assumptions. They are opened ended and we don't know how powerful Z is know since he's been gone for so long. We don't know Z's Con score, or what he rolled for HP, or what his level is, or what the composition of those levels are beside 11 Wizard levels.

5: Do you honestly expect them to be seperated in the same manner after Azure City. C'mon. The party is split right now yes, but all within the same city and no large military force is forcing them to leave suddenly. We have our speculations and can make calculations on those speculations. V does not have this luxury. V does not have the same knowledge of us and even our data isn't complete. V could crunch the numbers fast enough and see these possiblities if V had this info, but he does not. And if any of our information is incorrect, all this calculations are thrown off.

6: I'm not saying Blackwing isn't real. I'm saying everybody but V, Z, and Quarr percieve him to be an illusion, or imaginary. I know Blackwing is real. But other than the 3 characters I've stated, no one else believes he is. And thus, using him to contact Durkon would be pointless. Plus Elan would be better suited to help Durkon because V only knew about Z and didn't encounter Yukyuk till after Elan left.

Da'Shain

2011-05-05, 05:18 PM

6: I'm not saying Blackwing isn't real. I'm saying everybody but V, Z, and Quarr percieve him to be an illusion, or imaginary. I know Blackwing is real. But other than the 3 characters I've stated, no one else believes he is. And thus, using him to contact Durkon would be pointless. Minor nitpick: I'm pretty sure Xykon and O-Chul believe V's familiar is real. :smalltongue:

But yeah, I'd thought of that same problem. Unless the Order was simply pulling a flawless joke on V and his "imaginary" bird, they really don't believe it's real, much less can talk to them. No idea why this is, but ah well.

theNater

2011-05-05, 05:27 PM

Okay, so you're saying, if I have a 10% chance of winning, and Bob has a 10% chance of winning, and our wins are not in any way interdependent (we're not playing against each other, etc. - let's say we're participating in two separate, but exactly the same lotteries) - then the chance of one of us winning is 19%, and not 20%?

So by simply comparing me to Bob, you take out 0.5% out of my and Bob'd individual probabilities of winning?

I'm not convinced.

In which cases do we add probabilities then?
In 1% of the games both of you win, in 9% of the games only you win, and in 9% of the games only Bob wins. You still win in 10% of the games and Bob still wins in 10% of the games, but (for the "does one of us win" question) the overlap doesn't get counted twice.

You can add those probabilities in cases where there's no overlap(example: when only one person can win) or, as you've discovered, in cases where you want the overlap to get counted twice(example: when you want to total the shared winnings of you and Bob).

So what was the right answer according to your schoolteacher? 12.5%, 50%? Or, 12.5% before and 50% after the tossing?
The chance that the third coin will come up tails is 50%. Always.

Before we've flipped any coins, the chance that all three coins will come up tails is 12.5%.

After we've flipped the first two coins, the chance that the remaining coin will come up tails is 50%. This means that if both of the first two coins have come up tails(which happens 25% of the time), that there is a 50% chance that all three coins will come up tails. On the other hand, if at least one of the first two coins came up heads(which happens 75% of the time), there is a 0% chance that all three coins will come up tails.

Once you're in one of the 25% of situations where you have a 50% chance of the result you want, there's a 50% chance you'll get what you want.

zimmerwald1915

2011-05-05, 05:42 PM

John Cribati

2011-05-05, 05:44 PM

1: Your not V so your actions in V's place have no bearing on the situation.

...

Okay, I have a question.

How would *You* fight this battle if you were V? Given what we know of his spell list from class 'n level geekery, what is his/her best tactical options?

Respectfully,

Brian P.

... NeutralEvil quoted this in the post that you quoted. This is what he was largely responding to.

__________________

6: I'm not saying Blackwing isn't real. I'm saying everybody but V, Z, and Quarr percieve him to be an illusion, or imaginary. I know Blackwing is real. But other than the 3 characters I've stated, no one else believes he is. And thus, using him to contact Durkon would be pointless.

Actually, since Durkon associates the "illusory" Bird with Vaarsuvius, he could assume that V came up with some illusion messenger spell.

zimmerwald1915

2011-05-05, 06:21 PM

Actually, since Durkon associates the "illusory" Bird with Vaarsuvius, he could assume that V came up with some illusion messenger spell.
Durkon was around when V was devising and casting his "keen people-finding spells", recommended to Roy that the Order use them to contact Girard, and thus presumably knows what they are.

Alternatively, V doesn't need to devise a new spell to create an illusory messenger, since Major Image does the job fairly successfully.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 06:23 PM

1: Your not V so your actions in V's place have no bearing on the situation.

I am not even sure how to reply to this. You do realize that the question posed to me by Brian Pendell was how I'd act if I were V,
given V's known facts from the Class & Level thread? Just yes or no please.

2: The Big Picture is that Nale and Co. are attacking and that things can go awry and thus keeping the most powerful member in this situation in the game is a very prudent strategy and take precedence.

You call that "keeping in the game"? By effectively ignoring the enemy and doing things that a bard would do better? By all probability, V should have been already dead, if only Z & Co. were a little less incompetent.

3: Your assuming that Elan has these spells.

No, I don't, I said Elan as a bard has access to these spells! I.e. They're on the bard's spell list, and Elan could have taken them as his spells known, or could have bought some scrolls with them. It's obvious that Elan doesn't have any of that, though - not even Haste. Given how generally... dim Elan is about this sort of thing, I believe it is V's fault, as the primary arcane spellcaster of the group, of not steering Elan more efficiently.

trying to cast a 1 min casting time spell in the middle of a fight, regardless if Elan somehow knew about Yukyuk, would of been pointless

If Elan had Break Enchantment as a spell known, or either V or Elan had the respective scroll, they wouldn't need to shrink Haley's statue and send Elan away to find Durkon. They would simply need to defeat the enemy and then immediately return Haley to normal. Casting Shrink Item and Quickened Haste was an entire round's worth of actions for V - actions which could have been used to take out Z; and Elan runs away, instead of assisting V on the battlefield. What kind of strategy is that?

4: V Knows they are Nale's associates and thus Nale and the rest of his gang are sure to be targeting the rest of the Order, including the one member capable of providing reliable means of recovery.

Exactly. So instead of focusing their force at this battle, defeating Z & Co., reverting Haley and then going on to help the others, they're splitting their forces even further, basically down to an "every man for himself" situation, allowing the Linear Guild to pick them off one by one. Excellent strategy, truly fit for a genius-level intelligence and great combat experience V is supposed to possess.

Elan's Mass Cure Light Wounds won't be nearly as effective as a full on Cleric.

And that's why it was a stupid spell to take for a bard. But what does CLW have to do with anything here?

Your demonstration on this thread is making assumptions.

Show me the faults. Using proper quotes.

I know your using Geekery thread but those are also based on assumptions.

Nope, those are based on cold hard facts. Try using the links to the relevant comics.

They are opened ended and we don't know how powerful Z is know since he's been gone for so long. We don't know Z's Con score, or what he rolled for HP

For all practical purposes, Z is likely equal in ECL to V, minus the -2 Drow LA. We know he is a Wizard (Nale specifically introduced him as such), and there is no evidence of him having levels in any other classes. He has a penalty to Con due to being an elf, and his base hp as a Wizard are 1d4. We can extrapolate the rest from the available data and calculate averages.

No one is claiming to know the exact true data regarding any character. We're calculating probabilities and averages, not absolutes.

or what his level is,

The fact that he never used anything higher than a 6th level spell is a rather decent indication of his abilities.

or what the composition of those levels are beside 11 Wizard levels.

Is he wearing armor? Using weapons? Casting any spells other than Wizard ones? Nope. Good reason to believe he's got no other levels besides Wizard and possibly spellcasting prestige classes.

5: Do you honestly expect them to be seperated in the same manner after Azure City. C'mon.

We were talking about combat efficiency, and now you're throwing "rules of drama" at me? Killing enemies and surviving is better than dying and being Resurrected, period.

We have our speculations and can make calculations on those speculations.

I'm glad you see that.

V does not have this luxury. V does not have the same knowledge of us and even our data isn't complete.

Actually, V knows a lot more than we do. In particular, he knows everything about his own build, his items and available spells. And he knows at least as much about Zz'dtri as we do, since he was the one fighting the Drow in Dungeon of Dorukan.

V could crunch the numbers fast enough and see these possiblities if V had this info, but he does not.

Again, he has more info than we do. And he has genius-level Intelligence. And a ton of ranks in Spellcraft and Knowledge (arcana). And 15 levels worth of combat experience. If anything, he should be much more efficient than we are at this sort of thing.

And if any of our information is incorrect, all this calculations are thrown off.

They're not thrown off, merely have to be adjusted for new data.

6: I'm not saying Blackwing isn't real. I'm saying everybody but V, Z, and Quarr percieve him to be an illusion, or imaginary. I know Blackwing is real. But other than the 3 characters I've stated, no one else believes he is.

Check here. (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0003.html) And here. (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0154.html) And here. (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0659.html) And here. (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0679.html) People see Blackwing perfectly well.
And if you're referring to the Order "forgot" about V's familiar (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0674.html), the best way to remind them is to send a real-life, tangible, talking magic bird their way.
And in any case, why can't a wizard communicate through illusions? They do it all the time.

MesiDoomstalker

2011-05-05, 06:24 PM

... NeutralEvil quoted this in the post that you quoted. This is what he was largely responding to.

I'm saying that entire calculation means nothing as that is not neccisarily what V would do. If we analyze V and then determine what V would mostly likley would do then we crunch numbers to determine V's success.

Smash_Gordon

2011-05-05, 06:30 PM

This is definitely going to sound like a crackpot theory, but I think it might be a good twist.

The first two rounds (thank you Neutral Evil) show that V has already lost up to 25% of his current hp. going 2v2 against 2 healthy opponents? Not so sure.

V still owes his soul to the familiars. I believe Qarr simply led the Z (and the LG) to V, and when the match goes south...

...and realistically* it will...

...V gets a reverse soul-splice, and performs whatever the IFCC had planned. Starting off by annihilating the drow.

thoughts?

*(as realistic as a D&D match gets, but the Giant has been pretty consistent so far.)

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 06:31 PM

The first two rounds (thank you Neutral Evil)

You're welcome! :smallbiggrin:

show that V has already lost up to 25% of his current hp.

I'd say over 50% by now. Lightning bolt does 10d6 (half for save which V is not likely to make) + Yuk's bolts were probably enchanted.

going 2v2 against 2 healthy opponents? Not so sure.

One of which is a high-level Drow wizard.

V still owes his soul to the familiars.

You mean the IFCC.

I believe Qarr simply led the Z (and the LG) to V, and when the match goes south... ...and realistically* it will......V gets a reverse soul-splice, and performs whatever the IFCC had planned. Starting off by annihilating the drow. thoughts?

1. The Linear Guild are agents of the IFCC. Why would the IFCC want to annihilate their own agents?

2. The fiends are after the Gate. Logic says they will keep their trump cards until the time is right to make a play for the Gate.

_______________

I'm saying that entire calculation means nothing as that is not neccisarily what V would do.

Still missing the point, are we...

I don't know what else can be done here, I mean the explanations were crystal clear...

silversaraph

2011-05-05, 06:43 PM

HOWEVER, the probability that, if I have flipped three coins and had come up tails , there is still a 50-50 chance that the fourth coin will also be tails.The coin has no memory of the previous coin flips. So I shouldn't double my bet expecting it to come up tails this time.
Brian P.

The chance that the third coin will come up tails is 50%. Always.

A great concept, the gambler's fallacy, but it makes me think of a question I had on a math test once: "A gambler flips a coin and it lands on heads. The coin lands on heads a hundred more times in a row. Is it statistically beneficial for the gambler to bet on heads the next flip?"

The answer was YES. Obviously, the coin is rigged! :smallwink:

Mathematically, it works fine that independent events have no effect on the probability of another, and it's likely to hold true in small trials. But after a certain point, you have to think in terms of real life... is it more likely a ridiculously unlikely set of events just *so happened* or there's a loophole causing a distortion? If V makes his will wave fifty times in a row, it would be foolhardy to think he'll still make/fail it X percentage of the time, especially more so as it's unlikely that Rich just rolls dice to determine the results of the comic.

Also, on a different note, Mr. Scruffy needs to be taken into account. Will he fight his evil opposite or claw out Z's eyes and disrupt his spells as with tsukiko?

theNater

2011-05-05, 06:59 PM

A great concept, the gambler's fallacy, but it makes me think of a question I had on a math test once: "A gambler flips a coin and it lands on heads. The coin lands on heads a hundred more times in a row. Is it statistically beneficial for the gambler to bet on heads the next flip?"

The answer was YES. Obviously, the coin is rigged! :smallwink:
That's a good call, but only kind of related to the gambler's fallacy. The gamblers fallacy is when, after it has landed heads a hundred times in a row, one bets on tails, out of a misguided conception that a tails result is "due".

Mathematically, it works fine that independent events have no effect on the probability of another, and it's likely to hold true in small trials. But after a certain point, you have to think in terms of real life... is it more likely a ridiculously unlikely set of events just *so happened* or there's a loophole causing a distortion? If V makes his will wave fifty times in a row, it would be foolhardy to think he'll still make/fail it X percentage of the time, especially more so as it's unlikely that Rich just rolls dice to determine the results of the comic.
Yes, all of the mathematical calculations do rely on things being both fair and random. While neither of those is the case here, we can still get some sort of feel for things by using, as Rich knows (for example)that V making a dozen fort saves in a row will be really rough on the ol' willing suspension of disbelief.

BlackestOfMages

2011-05-05, 07:13 PM

Minor nitpick: I'm pretty sure Xykon and O-Chul believe V's familiar is real. :smalltongue:

But yeah, I'd thought of that same problem. Unless the Order was simply pulling a flawless joke on V and his "imaginary" bird, they really don't believe it's real, much less can talk to them. No idea why this is, but ah well.

because it used to be V himself who forgot blackwing's existance every time he wasn;t explicitly in use, so now, as a subversion everyone else seems to be forgetting...

Neutral Evil

2011-05-05, 07:34 PM

Alternatively, V doesn't need to devise a new spell to create an illusory messenger, since Major Image does the job fairly successfully.

Major Image (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/majorImage.htm) only works in radius of 400ft +40ft/lvl, requires a Standard Action to cast and Concentration to maintain.

Whereas giving a command to the familiar would be a free action and require nothing else.

martinkou

2011-05-05, 07:53 PM

The answer was YES. Obviously, the coin is rigged! :smallwink:

The kind of probability calculations we talked about are only good if you can perfectly or (if you allow for some subjectivity) reasonably model the thing you're playing with. If your model of a coin is a fair coin but you find out the coin always gives you heads, it means your model for the coin is very likely to be wrong. In this case, the predictions you worked from the equations would be meaningless.

It is possible to work backwards from observed outcomes to the probability that your model is right. One method to do that is Bayesian Inference (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference). It's a significant part of a lot of email spam filters out there.

If you can build a system that does all three things (generating models based on educated guesses; predicting what will happen from models; and judging whether current models make sense based on observed outcomes) - then you've got a basic AI system.

Smash_Gordon

2011-05-05, 10:05 PM

1. The Linear Guild are agents of the IFCC. Why would the IFCC want to annihilate their own agents?

2. The fiends are after the Gate. Logic says they will keep their trump cards until the time is right to make a play for the Gate.

I was under the impression they were just tools, with the exception* of Sabine and (now) Qarr. would it make sense to have the entire LG in on the IFCC's plan? Is Sabine even in on it?

But your second point makes sense. I realize the previous theory was in error.

New point; since the IFCC needs V, wouldn't Qarr ensure he survives the fight?

*I'm using this term very loosely

Herald Alberich

2011-05-06, 12:32 AM

I really shouldn't be wading into this at all, but ...

As a bard, Elan has access to both Haste and Break Enchantment. V should not have been bothering with these trivialities, instead focusing on killing the enemy.

We've acknowledged that it's not likely Elan actually knows either of those spells. Whether V should have encouraged Elan to take them in the past is irrelevant to the current situation, because he did not. Focus on the situation as it is, not as it might have been.

Also, V cast Haste on himself and Blackwing, too. There wasn't any reason not to include Elan in the casting; it's one use of the same spell either way.

John Cribati

2011-05-06, 01:02 AM

I'm saying that entire calculation means nothing as that is not neccisarily what V would do.

Okay, I have a question.
How would *You* fight this battle if you were V? Given what we know of his spell list from class 'n level geekery, what is his/her best tactical options?

See this? Those words in the box right above me, particularly the first three words and the last seven? This is what was being responded to. The question is not what actions V would take in the current situation (seeing as the actions suggested were not the ones taken). It has nothing to do with what V would do. The question specifically asks a reader, who is outside of the situation, which particular option would produce the most desirable result for Vaarsuvius in the current situation. And NeutralEvil gave his opinion.

As an aside, it seems that several people, myself included, have been misquoting and otherwise misunderstanding this man for the past few days. I wonder how he feels about that.

blazingshadow

2011-05-06, 01:31 AM

what are the probabilities of v using shapechange/baleful polymorph to turn the tables on his enemies? he heals himself, becomes inmune to lightning and starts clawing his way out of a kobold and drow sandwich

Kirgoth

2011-05-06, 02:07 AM

Poly any object on herself into a flesh golem (lightening heals) so the stoneskin 10/adamantine stacks with the golems 5/adamantine, giving dr 15, spell immunity and heals her all the while he can fly.

Then beat them to a pulp.

zimmerwald1915

2011-05-06, 02:09 AM

It's not inconceivable that V has PoA or Baleful Polymorph, and we've seen her use vanilla Polymorph in the past (on precisely one occassion). V was also shown to be rather fond of Shapechange when Spliced, but no longer has that spell or any spells beyond 8th level. However, V trying to get into a Merlin v. Madam Mim wizard's duel with Z, who is presumably a transmuter, is a less than smart move.

Goosefeather

2011-05-06, 06:19 AM

That's a good call, but only kind of related to the gambler's fallacy. The gamblers fallacy is when, after it has landed heads a hundred times in a row, one bets on tails, out of a misguided conception that a tails result is "due".

Yes, all of the mathematical calculations do rely on things being both fair and random. While neither of those is the case here, we can still get some sort of feel for things by using, as Rich knows (for example)that V making a dozen fort saves in a row will be really rough on the ol' willing suspension of disbelief.

Minor nitpick, and i'm sure you already know this but just in case others don't, it would also be the gambler's fallacy in this situation to bet on heads because you think the coin is 'on a streak' or something like that. Suspecting it's rigged would obviously be a completely different matter.

Basically, the Gambler's Fallacy is to believe that past events have an effect on the present event, when each event is independent. It doesn't matter which direction you let it affect you in, it's that you let it affect your decision at all.

@pendell last page - yep, you've got it! :smallsmile:

theNater

2011-05-06, 11:01 AM

Minor nitpick, and i'm sure you already know this but just in case others don't, it would also be the gambler's fallacy in this situation to bet on heads because you think the coin is 'on a streak' or something like that. Suspecting it's rigged would obviously be a completely different matter.
True enough.

MesiDoomstalker

2011-05-06, 11:30 AM

See this? Those words in the box right above me, particularly the first three words and the last seven? This is what was being responded to. The question is not what actions V would take in the current situation (seeing as the actions suggested were not the ones taken). It has nothing to do with what V would do. The question specifically asks a reader, who is outside of the situation, which particular option would produce the most desirable result for Vaarsuvius in the current situation. And NeutralEvil gave his opinion.

As an aside, it seems that several people, myself included, have been misquoting and otherwise misunderstanding this man for the past few days. I wonder how he feels about that.

I know this is Neutral Evil's opinion on what would of been most beneficial actions for V. See that bold there. Yes Neutral Evil is not in the situation but he and the one asking the question are making theories based on what they would do, not what V would do. It doesn't matter what any of us would do in the situation given V's resources, it only matters what V will do. So, I'm saying that this theorizing does not have a place here as it 1) doesn't predict anything as it goes back and redoes turns already past and 2) isn't what V would of done as already demonstrated in 789 and 790. This is a thread on speculations about the Z vs. V fight and now Z & Yukyuk v. V fight as he has now joined in. If we spout speculations based on what we would do, that means nothing. Because, and I can't seem to repeat this or stress this enough, WE ARE NOT V!

So I propose we speculate what V will do, which is not neccisarily the most effective method.

I also fail to see how describing what Neutral Evil would do given the V's situation and V's resources don't pertain to V. And if they do, why are they in a thread about a fight V is in.

pendell

2011-05-06, 03:05 PM

I know this is Neutral Evil's opinion on what would of been most beneficial actions for V. See that bold there. Yes Neutral Evil is not in the situation but he and the one asking the question are making theories based on what they would do, not what V would do. It doesn't matter what any of us would do in the situation given V's resources, it only matters what V will do. So, I'm saying that this theorizing does not have a place here as it 1) doesn't predict anything as it goes back and redoes turns already past and 2) isn't what V would of done as already demonstrated in 789 and 790. This is a thread on speculations about the Z vs. V fight and now Z & Yukyuk v. V fight as he has now joined in. If we spout speculations based on what we would do, that means nothing. Because, and I can't seem to repeat this or stress this enough, WE ARE NOT V!

So I propose we speculate what V will do, which is not neccisarily the most effective method.

I also fail to see how describing what Neutral Evil would do given the V's situation and V's resources don't pertain to V. And if they do, why are they in a thread about a fight V is in.

That wasn't my question, though. And thank you, NeutralEvil , for attempting to answer it.

I am more interested in how the people here would tactically fight the battle , in the hopes of learning more about D&D and improving my own encounter tacticals. V has not necessarily shown a great deal of common sense, so I don't expect that the optimal course of action will be the one V takes.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

NNescio

2011-05-06, 05:14 PM

Any probability value must be greater than or equal to zero (or 0%) and lesser than or equal to one (or 100%). Any value that is out of the range of these parameters are invalid and meaningless -- it's an immediate sign that something is wrong with the math. This is a reliable sanity check (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanity_testing) used by most people who deal with probabilities.

(Note, probability densities and other terms with the word "probability" in them are different, but this is irrelevant as there are different concepts, despite the similar names.)

That's the trouble with probabilities - they're quite subjective.

I am no mathematician, so I will refer you to a learned scholar of the subject:

"When you're looking for the probability that two events, A and
B, will BOTH occur, the probability of this coincidence is small, and
you multiply the separate probabilities of A and B to get a smaller
number. When you don't care which happens - either A or B - you can
add the probabilities to find the separate probability that one or the
other will happen."

Probability calculation is a complex issue. Normally, I also multiply probabilities when calculating chances (you will notice this in my previous post). But this time I thought adding would be more appropriate. I don't claim to be 100% correct on this, of course, since math is not exactly my field of study.

This is only applicable for a single event. If there are 20 marbles in a bag, with 10 of them white, 5 of them black, and the remaining five blue, the probability of drawing a white one is 50%, 25% for a black, and 25% for a blue. The probability of drawing either a white or black marble is 50%+25%= 75%. This is the case that Dr Math is referring to. It does not apply for multiple independent events that are not mutually exclusive.

Note that the probability of any marble being chosen is 100% -- the sum of the probabilities of all possible events must always be 100%, as something must always happen.

I think I've got this.

Example: you have a 10% chance of winning a game of chance. Your friend also has a 10% chance of winning this game. Would you say that there is a 20% chance that either of you will win? I'd say yes. Would you say that instead there's a (10% + (90%*10%)) = 19% chance of either of you winning? I'd say no. Because the events are independent; regardless of how you perform, your friend still has the same win chance, and vice versa.

Now if we increase the chance to 60% and 60%: why should we suddenly multiply instead of adding?

You have a 90% chance of losing, and your friend also has a 90% chance at a loss. The probability of both of you losing is 0.92, or 81%. The probability of the above not happening is 100%-81% = 19%. This is the probability that at least one of you wins.

This is how probability is generally calculated for "at least one" cases.

To double-check, note that there are four possible outcomes:
You win and your friend wins. (10%*10% = 1%)
You win and your friend loses. (10%*90% = 9%)
You lose and your friend wins. (10%*90% = 9%)
You lose and your friend loses. (90%*90% = 81%)

Note again, that the sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes is 100%, like the marble bag example above. One of these outcomes must always happen. This is what "100%" means, and any value above this is meaningless, and as such is an obvious indicator of bad math.

Summing up the probabilities of the outcomes where at least one you wins is trivial: 1%+9%+9%=19%, which agrees with the previous calculation above. It is also apparent why subtracting the probability of both of you losing from 100% will yield the same result, as 100%-81%= 19%.

... In lottery A one ticket gives you a 10% chance to win $100. In lottery B, an equally-priced ticket gives you a 5% chance to win $200. The average winnings for both lotteries will equal 10 dollars per ticket. Right?

Now let's take two lottery A tickets (the 10% ones). By multiplication of probabilities, two tickets if taken together have a 19% combined chance of either (a) one of them winning, or (b) both of them winning. Right?

But: since among these 19% there is a 1% chance to win double prize money (both tickets win), the actual average winnings are still $10 per ticket, and not $9.50 as the "19% chance to win" would lead us to believe. It's actually like this: (18% chance to win $100) + (1% chance to win $200) = $20 per two tickets, or 20% chance to win $100.

So, even though there's only a 19% chance of any "wins" actually happening, the effect is equal to having a single 20% chance of winning $100. See where I'm going here?

Let's do this comprehensively:
There are four possible outcomes:
You win Lottery A and B: Probability = 10%*5% = 0.5%. Payout: $300
You win Lottery A; lose B: Probability = 10%*95% = 9.5%. Payout: $100
You win Lottery B; lose A: Probability = 90%*5% = 4.5%. Payout: $200
You lose Lottery A and B: Probability= 90%*95% = 85.5%. Payout: 0

The expected value (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value) is 0.5%($300)+9.5%($100)+4.5%($200)= $20. Or in other words, you can expect to win $20 on average.

This is not a "20% chance to win $100". Both have the same expected value, but are different events with different outcomes. You are grossly abusing terminologies here.

Why is this distinction important? Simple, because the chance of winning $100 is not 20% in the above example, it is 9.5%. Note the second outcome listed above. They may be functionally equivalent in some sense, but arguing any further is just horrendously confusing, since you've just thrown in a different scenario (with wholly different possible outcomes) out of the blue.

Now let's suppose that by some miracle or cheat I got two tickets each with a 60% chance of winning $100, i.e. $60 per ticket. If we multiply the probabilities and leave it at that (not taking into account the double wins), we'll get $84 as the average win for both tickets together; whereas in fact, $60 per ticket translates into $120 per two tickets. This effect is statistically equal to "a 120% chance to win $100". I.e. your win = $100 * 120% = $120.

I understand I'm going out on a leg here. And of course, strictly from a probability theory point of view, "120% probability" is impossible. However, once we take into account the material effect, statistics actually make it possible. And maybe "probability" is the wrong term to use here, some other chance-effect related term might be in order. EDIT: What Martinkou suggested, "expected value", might be a better term.

Sorry if I was unclear, again, I'm not a specialist in this kind of math. This is just how it appears to me.

What we need to do here is properly calculate the effect. For damage spells, we need to take into account the amount of damage; for Save-or-Lose, the chances of beating the saving throws. Simply saying "84% chance of either one or both spells penetrating Spell Resistance" is not enough, we need to go further.

Here's an easier way to say it: Cone of Cold does 60% damage on average, due to SR. Two cones of cold will hence deal 120% damage total on average.

Tell that to the Bayesians :smalltongue:
The subjectivist view of Bayesian probability assumes imperfect information -- this is irrelevant in the examples you've used, since they provide for clear-cut outcomes.

ThePhantasm

2011-05-06, 05:45 PM

If we spout speculations based on what we would do, that means nothing.

So I propose we speculate what V will do, which is not neccisarily the most effective method.

I also fail to see how describing what Neutral Evil would do given the V's situation and V's resources don't pertain to V.

It seems like you say that theories about what WE would do in V's situation don't pertain to V, and so are useless. Then you say that you "fail to see" how they "don't pertain to V"! Am I wrong in seeing a contradiction here?

Also, you do know who the OP of this thread is, right? Its the same guy who you are yelling at in huge letters to get back on topic.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-06, 06:48 PM

Mighty work, NNescio! I was just about to start asking why no one gave a comprehensive reply to my latest lottery example :smallbiggrin:

Any probability value must be greater than or equal to zero (or 0%) and lesser than or equal to one (or 100%). Any value that is out of the range of these parameters are invalid and meaningless -- it's an immediate sign that something is wrong with the math.

It may be simply a question of terminology. However, I still have this gut feeling that probability itself is nevertheless involved. Will explain below.

This is only applicable for a single event. If there are 20 marbles in a bag, with 10 of them white, 5 of them black, and the remaining five blue, the probability of drawing a white one is 50%, 25% for a black, and 25% for a blue. The probability of drawing either a white or black marble is 50%+25%= 75%. This is the case that Dr Math is referring to. It does not apply for multiple independent events that are not mutually exclusive.

I will certainly think about this and read Dr Math some more, but indeed, the case you describe is not what we have at hand with the spells.

Note that the probability of any marble being chosen is 100% -- the sum of the probabilities of all possible events must always be 100%, as something must always happen.

True; in a way. The problem is, I think, in us defining the probability event.

E.g.: in my lottery example, a dichotomy of "one of us wins, or we both win" vs. "we both lose" fails to account for the double win. Thus, when calculating the combined chances of two players, the 1% chance of a double win is counted only once, instead of actually being counted twice as two singe wins. As a result, we've got:

19% = 9% (chance of A winning, B losing) + 9% (chance of B winning, A losing) + 1% (chance of A winning and B winning)

whereas in fact it should be:

20% = 9% (chance of A winning, B losing) + 9% (chance of B winning, A losing) + 1% (chance of A winning) + 1% (chance of B winning)

From the probability POV, these one-percents are in fact one and the same 1%; however, from the statistics/results POV, both A and B count it as their win chance.

What I'm thinking about here, is subjective probability.

Objectively, the combined probability for A and B to win is 19%.

Subjectively however, taking into consideration individual results, the combined probability is 20%. Because we count 1% twice: once for A (he wins!) and once for B (he also wins!).

How's that for terminology? :smallbiggrin:

19%. This is the probability that at least one of you wins
. This is how probability is generally calculated for "at least one" cases.

Exactly. It fails to differentiate between simple wins and "double wins".

This is what "100%" means, and any value above this is meaningless, and as such is an obvious indicator of bad math.

I'm not yet up to putting everything in words, but based on my above example: objectively yes, the probability is limited by 100%;

subjectively however, it may go beyond 100%.

Example. A wins 60% of the time, and B wins 60% of the time. What are their combined chances?

Objective probability says 84%.

Of these 84%, 36% is when both A & B are winning.

Subjective probability therefore says that we need to count 36% twice: once for A (he wins!) and once for B (he also wins!), and arrive at 120%.

This number may be "meaningless" from a strict, objective probability POV; but it's not meaningless in real life calculations, because it accurately reflects the correct results (i.e. winnings). If A & B each play the 60% lottery 100 times, their combined win will be $12,000, not $8,400.

Let's do this comprehensively:
There are four possible outcomes:
You win Lottery A and B: Probability = 10%*5% = 0.5%. Payout: $300
You win Lottery A; lose B: Probability = 10%*95% = 9.5%. Payout: $100
You win Lottery B; lose A: Probability = 90%*5% = 4.5%. Payout: $200
You lose Lottery A and B: Probability= 90%*95% = 85.5%. Payout: 0

I gave the example of two lotteries with different win chances/payouts to illustrate the concept of different probabilities giving the same statistical result (or, expected value).

The expected value (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value) is 0.5%($300)+9.5%($100)+4.5%($200)= $20. Or in other words, you can expect to win $20 on average.

This is not a "20% chance to win $100". Both have the same expected value, but are different events with different outcomes. You are grossly abusing terminologies here.

Well, IMHO this is actually a combined 20% chance to win $100.

Why? Because the lottery only gives out $100 wins. It's a fixed sum. Each of the players can ONLY win $100 (not $200 or $300).

So, if the players are together making an average win of $20 per ticket, it means that, together, they've got an average 20% chance of winning $100.

If this is not probability, I don't know what is! :smallbiggrin:

____________

This is a thread on speculations about the Z vs. V fight and now Z & Yukyuk v. V fight as he has now joined in. If we spout speculations based on what we would do, that means nothing. Because, and I can't seem to repeat this or stress this enough, WE ARE NOT V!

:smallbiggrin: Dude, I'm the topic starter, the guy who wrote the original post (you know, the big one at the start of the thread). If you think the topic is not defined well enough, I'll be happy to introduce some corrections in the explanation of what this thread is "about".

So I propose we speculate what V will do, which is not neccisarily the most effective method.

We've already done that. We've been doing it for the first few pages. However, since the comic is moving along much slower than our minds, we've been amusing ourselves with other speculations regarding the Z vs. V fight. And playing hypothetical "wargames" on V's possible actions based on the known facts about his build is a completely legitimate speculation on this matter.

Also, it's not always fun (at least for myself) to follow V's inefficient logic. Sometimes, you just want to talk efficiency for a change.

I also fail to see how describing what Neutral Evil would do given the V's situation and V's resources don't pertain to V. And if they do, why are they in a thread about a fight V is in.

Because speculation is not only prediction (V will do this), but also examination of possibilities (V can theoretically do this). It can also involve expressing opinions on what has already happened. These are all aspects of the thread's topic.

__________

As an aside, it seems that several people, myself included, have been misquoting and otherwise misunderstanding this man for the past few days. I wonder how he feels about that.

I've been on the Internet (and indeed, living) long enough not to be seriously bothered by that. In some cases, I feel polemics are in order, but this one is more amusing than annoying. Anyway, thanks for the support :smallbiggrin:

theNater

2011-05-06, 11:43 PM

Well, IMHO this is actually a combined 20% chance to win $100.

Why? Because the lottery only gives out $100 wins. It's a fixed sum. Each of the players can ONLY win $100 (not $200 or $300).

So, if the players are together making an average win of $20 per ticket, it means that, together, they've got an average 20% chance of winning $100.

If this is not probability, I don't know what is! :smallbiggrin:
While this approach yields numerically correct values, it obscures the real-world data a little bit.

Let's examine two lotteries: one where there's a 10% chance of winning $50 and one where there's a 50% of winning $10. It is clear that these are very different lotteries, but both of them yield an average winnings of $5 per play.

When you say that you and Bob together make an average win of $20 per ticket, it's like someone in one of those two lotteries saying they have an average winnings of $5 per play. It is correct, but it doesn't reveal which lottery you're playing.

When you say there's a 20% chance of winning $100, it's a little like saying you're playing the $10 lottery when you're really playing the $50 lottery. It yields the right average value, but misrepresents the actual chances of things.

NNescio

2011-05-07, 01:32 AM

...This number may be "meaningless" from a strict, objective probability POV; but it's not meaningless in real life calculations, because it accurately reflects the correct results (i.e. winnings). If A & B each play the 60% lottery 100 times, their combined win will be $12,000, not $8,400.
Actually, no. That's not a certain outcome. Statistics don't work that way. Winning $12,000 would require a combined total of exactly 120 wins, no more, no less. There's a 5.75%* chance of that happening.

*Assuming I entered the values correctly in my calculator, since it was a literal PITA to plug it in on mine.

'Formula':
(200C120)(0.6)120(0.4)80 = 0.057506432...

Yes, this is a binomial distribution, (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution) and the first term is a combination. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combination)

I gave the example of two lotteries with different win chances/payouts to illustrate the concept of different probabilities giving the same statistical result (or, expected value).

Well, IMHO this is actually a combined 20% chance to win $100.

Why? Because the lottery only gives out $100 wins. It's a fixed sum. Each of the players can ONLY win $100 (not $200 or $300).

So, if the players are together making an average win of $20 per ticket, it means that, together, they've got an average 20% chance of winning $100.

If this is not probability, I don't know what is! :smallbiggrin:
There. Are. Not. The. Same. Thing. By your reasoning the above example is the same as saying "a 100% chance of winning $20", "a 0.002% chance of winning a million dollars", "a 50% chance of winning $10 and a 50% chance of winning $30". They all have the same expected value ($20), but they have different distributions and wholly dissimilar possible outcomes. It is readily apparent that they cannot be the same.

Especially from a statistical point of view, since the deviation and variance are all over the place.

Similarly, both a 1d20 and 3d6 have the same expected value of 10.5. They. are. still. not. the. same. thing. They have different distributions (extreme values are less likely to happen on a 3d6), and different outcomes (1, 2, 19, and 20 will never come up on a 3d6). As such, they cannot be the same thing, and arguing otherwise is a grievous fallacy.

Also, consider this, what is the probability of rolling a 10.5 on a 1d20 or a 3d6? Zero. 10.5 will never come up. See how probability and expected value are wholly different things here?

Now consider the following:

So, if the players are together making an average win of $20 per ticket, it means that, together, they've got an average 20% chance of winning $100.
Probability does not work that way. They have a 18% chance of winning $100, a 1% chance of winning $200, and a 81% chance of winning nothing. The total expected payout for both people for a single draw each is $20. This is not the same thing. The probability of winning $20 is zero, since it will never happen, exactly like the dice example above.

Math is particularly exact like that. If the question asks you to calculate the probability of winning $100 in the above example, and you give an answer of 20%, with no mention of expected values in both the question and your answer (which is utterly irrelevant anyway), I am reasonably confident that most math teachers will give you an F for your trouble. I am sorry, but that is what it is.

I am dead sure of it because I made the exact same mistake in a mid-term paper a good couple years ago. The other math teachers agreed on the same thing -- I was not the first student to ask for second opinions about that problem.

Asarlai

2011-05-07, 02:45 AM

I prepared Explosive Runes this morning.

Joerg

2011-05-07, 04:13 AM

I'm always at bit bothered by people calling the characters' actions stupid (or similar) either only after we've seen why they don't work or without enough knowledge about their reasons.

It is for example possible that Z has done something (a signal or transportation spell) to get Yukyuk. Then, his actions in two rounds have disabled one of his foes (Haley) and gotten him a high-level ally, which doesn't seem to be bad choices to me.

In his rounds, V has sent Elan away and cast Stoneskin. The second one may render Yukyuk virtually useless now that Elan is gone (so, a good choice, no?). For the first one, as V says, Elan would be quite useless in the fight, but in great danger of being captured or killed by Z or other LG members. By sending him away, V kills two birds with one stone, because Durkon will also be informed.

To say that this choice is tactically unsound because it leaves V open for an attack by Z is assuming too much; we don't know what protection spells / items V has. Perhaps he knows that the danger for him is not that great.

On the other hand, Neutral Evil has suggested Fireballs against Z. But these allow for spell resistance and V doesn't know whether Z has protection spells (e.g. Protection from Energy) active. In fact, any attack against Z may fail, while sending Elan to Durkon and away from harm -- with Haley, too, who can be turned back by the cleric -- is very likely to work.

I have a strong feeling that if V had casted a fireball and Z had taken no damage due to a protection spell, many people would have called the fireball stupid because V should have expected the protection.

Raistlin82

2011-05-07, 04:43 AM

I foresee V starting slow, but then delivering some major punishment on the LG.

I'm also afraid the IFCC taking over in this battle... but it's just a hunch.

SavageWombat

2011-05-07, 11:46 AM

I cannot for the life of me figure out this thread any longer with all the probability math.

The best way for V to win -

Quickened Haste = 90' flight move, IIRC. Retreat and spell blast. Or just full retreat, if it gets Z to follow.

Wait until directly above Arena.

Dispel Magic the Fly spell.

Power Attack from Roy. (Who seems to have a new anti-wizard feat.)

Dead drow.

Neutral Evil

2011-05-07, 04:22 PM

Probability debate replies below. Interested parties are encouraged to look: I think there is good progress being made.

While this approach yields numerically correct values, it obscures the real-world data a little bit. Let's examine two lotteries: one where there's a 10% chance of winning $50 and one where there's a 50% of winning $10. It is clear that these are very different lotteries, but both of them yield an average winnings of $5 per play. When you say that you and Bob together make an average win of $20 per ticket, it's like someone in one of those two lotteries saying they have an average winnings of $5 per play. It is correct, but it doesn't reveal which lottery you're playing.

I already gave a very similar example above, precisely to illustrate that different conditions may yield identical results. There is no other point to these examples other than to illustrate this concept, which we all understand.

When you say there's a 20% chance of winning $100, it's a little like saying you're playing the $10 lottery when you're really playing the $50 lottery. It yields the right average value, but misrepresents the actual chances of things.

Again, I've said the same things above.

However, the term misrepresents is misapplied here. The chances are calculated correctly, and the calculated sum of average winnings is correct.

The problem lies in how we define our events.

If we're looking for a "probability of either A, or B, or both winning" then we'll have 19% for the 10% lottery example. This approach fails to differentiate the "double win" situation from a "singe win" situation.

If, however, we change the definition to "probability of A winning, combined with probability of B winning", we're going to get 20%, because the 1% chance of A and B both winning will have to be taken into account twice - once for A, and once for B.

Again, if you apply this to a real-world situation, and calculate the winnings, you will find that 20% is correct, and 19% is not.

_______________________

Actually, no. That's not a certain outcome.

I thought it went without saying that this is not a certain outcome. We are calculating probabilites here, not actually looking into the future.

It is, however, the accurate probability, or average. Which is what we seek here.

There. Are. Not. The. Same. Thing. By your reasoning the above example is the same as saying "a 100% chance of winning $20", "a 0.002% chance of winning a million dollars", "a 50% chance of winning $10 and a 50% chance of winning $30". They all have the same expected value ($20), but they have different distributions and wholly dissimilar possible outcomes. It is readily apparent that they cannot be the same.

Your analogy is misapplied. The experiment specifically provides for $100 wins. Not $1,000,000; not $1; only $100 wins exist. There's only two possible outcomes for each of the players: either he wins $100, or he wins not at all. Therefore, the only chance we can calculate, is the chance to win $100.

Furthermore, the win chances of the two lotteries are exactly the same: 10%. So we're not talking "10% to win $100 vs. 5% to win $200"; we're talking "(10% to win $100) + (10% to win $100)".

Now to terminology. I honestly think we're going beyond "expected value" here: we're talking genuine probability, only from a different perspective.

As I said above, when we try to calculate combined probability, I think it's misleading to limit ourselves to "probability of either A, or B, or both winning". It's an oversimplification, which is not accurate for our purposes. We need to change the paradigm, to reformulate the question we're asking in order to accomodate the fact that both A & B winning is not the same as only one of them winning.

That's why I proposed to add the win chances instead of multiplying them. Multiplying does not account for the difference between "single wins" and "double wins"; it simply produces inaccurate results.

I.e.: with money lotteries, it calculates inaccurate winnings; with damage spells, it calculates inaccurate damage; with Save-or-Dies, it calculates inaccurate chances of success against saving throws (once the spell penetrates SR). Is it really a good way to calculate probability in our case?

Of course, you can compensate for the inadequacy of the multiplication method by breaking it down to individual components (e.g. 19% = 9% of A winning + 9% of B winning + 1% of A & B winning) and calculating the results of each component separately (e.g. that 1% of A & B winning translates into $200, and not $100). What you're actually doing here is adding the results together.

But why go this far when you can simply add the probabilities together and instantly arrive at the correct result?

You call this "expected result", and not "probability". Now this brings us back to what "combined probability" really is.

In my opinion, a method which arrives at a wrong result is a wrong way to calculate combined probability.

Put together, A and B's chances of winning $100 are not 19%, because that would lead to $19 average wins, whereas we know that each of them taken separately has a $10 average win (each lottery ticket has a 10% chance of winning).

Similarly, both a 1d20 and 3d6 have the same expected value of 10.5. They. are. still. not. the. same. thing. They have different distributions (extreme values are less likely to happen on a 3d6), and different outcomes (1, 2, 19, and 20 will never come up on a 3d6).

This is irrelevant, because in the lottery example everything is exactly the same. It's not like rolling a 1d20 and a 3d6; it's like rolling two 1d20 (or, 1d10 in the case of the 10% lottery).

Probability does not work that way. They have a 18% chance of winning $100, a 1% chance of winning $200, and a 81% chance of winning nothing.

Exactly. And that does not equal a 19% chance of winning $100.

See what happened there? 1% out of your 19% is not about winning $100, it's about winning $200. This screws up your entire calculation.

So if in reply to a question, "what is the combined probability of these two players winning $100" you answer "19%", you would be incorrect. Because only 18% in your 19% is the probability of winning $100; 1% is the probability of winning $200.

The total expected payout for both people for a single draw each is $20. This is not the same thing. The probability of winning $20 is zero, since it will never happen, exactly like the dice example above.

Winning $20 will never happen, sure. However, winning $100 will happen 20% of the time.

Math is particularly exact like that. If the question asks you to calculate the probability of winning $100 in the above example, and you give an answer of 20%, with no mention of expected values in both the question and your answer (which is utterly irrelevant anyway), I am reasonably confident that most math teachers will give you an F for your trouble. I am sorry, but that is what it is.

So what's the correct answer? 19%, right?

My next question will be: if they have a 19% chance of winning $100 every time they play, what will their average win be?

See, you've instantly arrived at a contradiction. 19% chance of winning $100 translates into $19 average per game. But that's not true; they'll be winning an average of $20 per game. What went wrong? Your perception of the initial question. You were asked to calculate the combined chance of winning $100, but you've replied with adding together a chance to win $100 and a "chance to win $200" (which, as you said yourself, is actually impossible in this lottery).

In other words: in your answer, the 1% is not actually a chance to win $100; it's a chance to win $200. You can't just add up these different chances and expect to arrive at a correct result.

Now, let's go away from monetary values for a moment, and replace "win $100" with simply "win", as opposed to "lose" (as is the case with Save-or-Lose spells). Does it change anything? IMHO, it doesn't. Your calculation still does not take into account the double win situation; and if to a question "What is the combined chance of A and B winning their lotteries" you'll reply "19%", it will not be correct. It would only be correct if you treat A winning and B winning as a single event (which would indeed happen 1% of the time), whereas in fact they are separate events, each happening 1% of the time.

(Note: In order to avoid any misunderstanding, "combined chance of A and B" does not mean "A and B both winning"; it means "A's chance to win combined with B's chance to win", no more and no less).

Now let's address the issue of probability going over 100%.

Let's take our old example of two lotteries, each with a 60% win chance.

Player A winning
Player B winning

A: 0%|00000000060%00000000|100%

B: 0%|00000000060%00000000|100%

So far, so good. Now let's combine them by multiplying probabilities:

A+B: 0%|000036%0024%0024%000|100%

where we have to add the event of Player A winning and Player B winning

Is that the same as one or both of the players winning?

0%|000000000000084%000|100% ?

No. Simply subsuming the 36% chance of the "double win" into the 84% chance of "one or both of the players winning" will fail to account for the diffence between one win and two wins. This logical simplification will lead to wrong statistical results, and is a wrong representation of the probability we seek - the probability of A winning combined with the probability of B winning.

Now what will happen if we add probabilities instead of multiplying them?

Let's assume Player A and Player B played the lottery for 100 rounds. A won 60 times, and B won 60 times (60% probability). Together they won 120 times. But they only played for 100 rounds. So, what is their combined probability of winning the lottery?

Here's what I offer:
_______

If "probability of winning" = "number of wins out of 100 attempts",

then "combined probability of winning" = "combined number of wins out of 100 attempts".
________

Very simple example: if you buy two lottery tickets, you double your chances vis-a-vis one lottery ticket. It will not make any difference if you give one ticket to your friend Bob: your combined probability of winning will still equal the sum of each ticket's probabilities of winning. Dr Math supports this:

"The probability of winning this second lottery is 1 in 14 million.

What would happen if you bought 7 million tickets?

If you picked a different combination of six numbers for each of those 7 million tickets, you'd have 7 million of the possible winning combinations and the numerator of your probability fraction would therefore be 7 million. Given the second lottery, with a sample space of 14 million possible combinations, the probability of winning the lottery is 7 million/14 million, a probability of 50%."

Dr Math (http://mathforum.org/dr.math/faq/faq.prob.world.html)

So we've concluded that in the case of a lottery where there is a direct inverse proportion between number of tickets and win chance, adding together probabilities is the way to go. E.g. there are 10 tickets in all, each ticket has a 10% chance of winning, so if you bought them all, you've got a 100% chance to win. Simple.

But what if there are 10 tickets with each giving a 60% chance of winning? (like our Spell Resistance case)? If you buy all ten, you've got a... 100% chance of winning? Technically yes; but if the averages play out, you'll win 6 times, and you'll collect 6 prizes. Is that the same as buying ten 10% tickets and winning only once? Obviously not. Then how do we reflect this difference in the probability figure?

Here's where I think it is important to draw a line between "classic" probability (which cannot go beyond 100%, I am not going to argue with that) and the combined probability we seek.

The key to understanding this difference is that the combined probability does not affect the individual probabilities.

Just like with Gambler's Fallacy: the chance of a coin landing tails a 100 times in a row is very low, however even that 100th toss is still a 50/50 chance of tails.

So even if the combined chance goes over 100%, the individual chance stays the same and is below 100%.

Example: if we have 10 tickets each with a 60% chance to win, the combined chance to win is 600% (as in, you'll win six times), but every ticket still has a 40% chance to fail, so on the individual level the rule of not getting over 100% is not violated.

Unlike multiplication of probabilities, this method yields the correct statistical results, so it may be called statistical probability. Or, even better, metaprobability.

I am dead sure of it because I made the exact same mistake in a mid-term paper a good couple years ago.

Can you give the exact wording of the question in that paper?

Because I think there's actually no big difference between our points of view; the problem lies with the correct formulations and terminology.

__________

The best way for V to win - Quickened Haste = 90' flight move, IIRC. Retreat and spell blast. Or just full retreat, if it gets Z to follow. Wait until directly above Arena. Dispel Magic the Fly spell. Power Attack from Roy. (Who seems to have a new anti-wizard feat.) Dead drow.

So basically what you're suggesting is run away and let the Fighter handle the enemy wizard.

Of what use is V then anyway?

___________

I'm always at bit bothered by people calling the characters' actions stupid (or similar) either only after we've seen why they don't work or without enough knowledge about their reasons.

We've seen enough of V to make certain conclusions about his tactical prowess. To put it lightly.

Now the burden of proof is on him. If he manages to convince me that he's a competent wizard now, all the better. Until then, I'm assuming mistakes, and not careful long-term planning.

It is for example possible that Z has done something (a signal or transportation spell) to get Yukyuk.

Signals are free actions (shout, wave your hand, whatever). We've seen no evidence of Z casting a transportation spell - and there are, actually, very few transportation spells that don't involve transporting the caster as well. In fact, the only one that comes to mind is Gate.

So, again, there is ample proof that Z did not cast any transportation spells.

In his rounds, V has sent Elan away

Which was actually a bad choice from the standpoint of winning the battle. Even V seemed to understand it, since his main argument was that someone needs to warn Durkon. But, even from a strategic POV, it's still not really a good choice, because now Elan runs the risk of being ambushed and easily killed by one or more of the remaining Linear Guild members, and V has seriously cut down his chances of surviving the Zz'dtri encounter.

and cast Stoneskin. The second one may render Yukyuk virtually useless now that Elan is gone (so, a good choice, no?).

Stoneskin is useless against spells, and Z strikes me as a much more dangerous opponent than Yuk (who can't even fly and is heavily dependent on line of sight). Also, Stoneskin (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/stoneskin.htm)is completely negated by adamantine weapons, and if Yuk's at least remotely approaching Belkar in levels, he can easily have some adamantine bolts. Finally, all non-item protections are just one Greater Dispel Magic (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/dispelMagicGreater.htm)away from being nothing. And V could have used his actions to cast this on Z and then finish him off in the space of 2 rounds which he spent shrinking Haley, hasting Elan and casting Stoneskin.

For the first one, as V says, Elan would be quite useless in the fight, but in great danger of being captured or killed by Z or other LG members.

Again, I place it at V's door that Elan is such a weak spellcaster. Had V paid enough attention, Elan could have been a force to be reckoned with, even despite being a bard. Still, Elan could at least deal with the kobold (who does not strike me as a strong character, at all) which would leave V free to finish up Z.

By sending him away, V kills two birds with one stone, because Durkon will also be informed.

Again, sending the familiar would have been just as good, and in fact much better, since Blackwing can fly and will not be in danger of being accosted by the LG.

Also, putting the familiar in harm's way like V's doing right now risks very serious repercussions for the wizard. Familiars are easy to kill, and their death imposes significant penalties upon their master.

To say that this choice is tactically unsound because it leaves V open for an attack by Z is assuming too much; we don't know what protection spells / items V has. Perhaps he knows that the danger for him is not that great.

If Z's spells had been bouncing off V with no effect, I'd be inclined to believe that. So far, though, the comic made it obvious that V was not only hurt by Z's lightning, but knocked down as well (what is that, Knockdown Spell metamagic?), and the only reason V's not been taking more damage was that Z hasn't been casting more spells.

Also, Stoneskin is both one of the longest-duration, and one of the most universally useful protection spells in the wizard's repertoire. If V hadn't bothered to cast Stoneskin, it's unlikely he cast other, more circumstantial and shorter-duration spells. My guess would be he has Mage Armor and not much else.

On the other hand, Neutral Evil has suggested Fireballs against Z. But these allow for spell resistance

First of all, Fireballs were suggested only in Quickened form, as a Swift Action addition to the Standard Action main guns (like Power Word: Stun).

Second, Spell Resistance was fully accounted for in my calculations. In fact, the entire probability debate which you found so annoying was devoted to improving our methods of such calculations.

and V doesn't know whether Z has protection spells (e.g. Protection from Energy) active.

That's why it's a good idea to start with a Greater Dispel Magic. And when Z falls down, sic Elan on him & watch the ensuing pun-infested massacre :smallbiggrin:

In fact, any attack against Z may fail

Does a chance of failure mean you shouldn't even try?

And in this particular case, chances of failure for V were like 10% or so.

I have a strong feeling that if V had casted a fireball and Z had taken no damage due to a protection spell, many people would have called the fireball stupid because V should have expected the protection.

Once more, that's why starting with a dispel is a good idea. Given how V is likely already higher in level than Z, and Greater Dispel Magic would give a +15 bonus on the dispel check, with one action V could have stripped Z of all his magical protections.

Instead, he chose to shrink Haley's statue. Oh well.

Blisstake

2011-05-07, 05:09 PM

Wouldn't greater dispel magic (assuming Z is not higher than level 15) have a 5% lower chance of working than Power Word Stun?

martinkou

2011-05-07, 06:14 PM

@Neutral Evil

I understand your frustrations at all the terminologies spewed at you at the moment, from the memories when I was taking the probabilities class in my university years (and I'm not a math major, I'm a CS major). The problem you're having now is that you're unable to have a clear mental picture of all those similar but different terms mean in real world consequences. But what I can tell you is that all these terms exist for very good reasons, the mathematicians in the last 300 or so years have figured out what you've talked about and the questions and answers from our whole thread have already been compressed to a few harmless-looking math terms on Wikipedia.

The reason I stopped writing anything on the topic is (as NNescio have already demonstrated), to convince somebody who isn't studying and hadn't studied probabilities all the complexities is needed is extremely difficult. Simply defining the terms and explaining the differences in a non-math language takes a long time, and then usually the person will end up not convinced because the concepts and pitfalls (especially the pitfalls) are not easy to sink in mentally.

I guess arguing that the math make sense starting from the definitions is pointless at this moment. Do you happen to know how to run and read some interpreter based programming languages like Python or JavaScript (you can run JavaScript from Firebug/Firefox for example)? If you're able to run and modify some simple simulations and see the results for yourself, instead of arguing with people over terminologies - you'll be able to understand all these stuff much better.

zimmerwald1915

2011-05-07, 07:31 PM

From a narrative point of view, if not from a combat-tactics point of view, it is extremely good for V that he is now the only Order member in the room with Z. If Elan had been around when Qarr (yes, I think it's Qarr) showed up, and worse when the imp started dropping bombshells, V could expect no help whatsoever from the Order in the future. Elan has been shown to pull away from V when the latter was on the path toward evil: what would his reaction have been when he learned that V had found the end of that path in a more spectacular manner than Elan had previously perceived? Aside from another strip 759 face (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0759.html), that is.

Asarlai

2011-05-07, 08:45 PM

silversaraph

2011-05-07, 10:29 PM

Probability does not work that way. They have a 18% chance of winning $100, a 1% chance of winning $200, and a 81% chance of winning nothing. The total expected payout for both people for a single draw each is $20. This is not the same thing. The probability of winning $20 is zero, since it will never happen, exactly like the dice example above.

By "expected payout for a single draw" do you mean the average win per ticket if you buy a bajillion of them? Because an expected value of $20 for a 0.002% chance of winning a million dollars if you buy a single ticket doesn't make any sense.

Detrinex

2011-05-07, 10:33 PM

Speculation here. I think the guy who did Amplify Sound in comic 776 is Sabine in disguise, or maybe the lizard ambassador with a monocle.

NNescio

2011-05-07, 11:53 PM

By "expected payout for a single draw" do you mean the average win per ticket if you buy a bajillion of them? Because an expected value of $20 for a 0.002% chance of winning a million dollars if you buy a single ticket doesn't make any sense.

Yes, (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value) exactly. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers)

That was my point -- they are all wildly different even though the expected payout per ticket averages out to the same number over time. I just chose a large number to illustrate how ridiculous it can be.

CSnowdragon

2011-05-08, 05:14 AM

Let us assume 2 situations:

Situation A: Me and Bob each roll a 100-sided fair die. Rolling 50+ scores a win.

Here both us individually have 50% chance of winning. if we add the probabilities, we get a 100% chance to win, meaning we never lose. In real life however that is not true as it is possible for us both of us to roll something below 50. In fact, the mistake we are making is counting our 'double wins' twice whereas like our single wins, those are actually also one occurance.The actual probabilities are:

Only One of use wins - 50%
Both of us win - 25%
Neither of us win - 50%

Situation B: Me and Bob purchase 50 tickets each for a lottery of 100 tickets with only one ticket being the winner.

Once again both of us have 50% of winning but here there can be no double wins and hence no overlap. So like the Dr Math example we can add the probabilities to get 100% chance to win which would be correct because we purchased all the tickets!

But it possible for V to double win or double fail his spells, so our situation is not like situation B at all. You could argue that situation A does not take into account double winnings for double wins but actually it does, you just have to calculate the winnings separately. Say the prize for a single win is X

Single win: 50%
Double win: 25%
Expected value = chance of single win*X + chance of double win*2X

Note that this yields the same result as 100% chance for a single win but saying that we have a 100% chance for a single win is incorrect because we can still lose(I'm still talking about situation A here). In order words, the answer you have come to is correct but the logic behind it - or your definition of probability is incorrect; which is what some people might have been trying to say.

So if V casts 2 spells, each that do X damage (I do not know much about D&D so I can be wrong from here onwards):

Expected damage = Chance of one spell hitting*X + Chance of two spells hitting*2X

However, using the 'expected value' here is in itself inaccurate. If you follow the second link, that NNescio gave, you'll see that expected value is only accurate the experiment is carried out many many times, i.e. V casts a ton of spells. Here we are only casting a few spells. A better idea would be to first calculate how much damage V has to do to beat Z. An example of a better equation for two spells might be(again I do not know much about D&D, so I can be wrong):

Chance of victory = (chance of one spell hitting*chance of dealing required damage in one hit) + (chance of two spells hitting*chance of dealing required damage in two hits)

Here, if it is impossible to kill Z in one hit, then we can ignore our "single wins entirely".

martinkou

2011-05-08, 06:20 AM

....
About the 12.5 only being valid before the tossing, Shrodinger's cat comes to mind :smallbiggrin:

So what was the right answer according to your schoolteacher? 12.5%, 50%? Or, 12.5% before and 50% after the tossing?

I guess I'll help you a bit there, since nobody answered that definitely.

There's no confusion involved in the math here. Probability is one of the hardest branches of maths but it's well developed - if you're finding something new, then most likely it's you who's missing something, rather than the mathematicians are missing something.

If you want a branch of mathematics where you can still discover new things relatively easily, you may want to considering studying Comp. Sci. You can get far richer than your Professors if you do it well ;)

12.5% is the probability of the Tail, Tail, Head event. It is the answer for the question "What's the chance 3 coin throws will turn up tail, tail and then head?"

50% is the probability of getting a Head event after you've thrown 2 tails. It is the answer for the question "After you've got 2 tails, what's the chance of getting a head?"

The two questions are different, and thus they'll have different answers. You having thrown 2 tails in one experiment doesn't mean everyone else will throw 2 tails like you - thus the 50% chance you get for the third throw has nothing to do with the first question. Conditional probability is the relation between the two answers.

So let's say we're considering the same 3 coin throws, done sequentially with fair coins.

You have a 50% chance of landing T1
You have a 25% chance of landing T1T2
The chance of landing a second T after you've got the first T, is the conditional probability... refer to wiki for what the notations mean, they's pretty standard.

P(T2 | T1) = P(T1T2) / P(T1)
P(T2 | T1) = 0.25 / 0.5 = 0.5

So the math is clear here, the two values are different because they answer different questions. But they are related.

The math for your third coin throw is exactly the same
12.5% chance of landing H1H2H3

P(H3 | T1T2) = P(T1T2H3) / P(T1T2)
= 0.125 / 0.25
= 0.5

This is actually a special case that says H3 is an independent event.

You can also work the equations backwards given how the coins throw (e.g. let's say one of the coins is unfair and has 70% chance of landing heads), and calculate the chance of getting the T1T2H3.

e.g. The first two coins are fair, but the third coin is 70% heads, what's P(T1T2H3)?

P(T1T2H3) = P(H3 | T1T2) * P(T1T2)
Note: H3 is an independent event, so P(H3) = P(H3 | T1T2), refer to definitions.
P(T1T2H3) = P(H3) * P(T1T2)
= 0.7 * 0.25
= 17.5%

My next question will be: if they have a 19% chance of winning $100 every time they play, what will their average win be?

See, you've instantly arrived at a contradiction. 19% chance of winning $100 translates into $19 average per game. But that's not true; they'll be winning an average of $20 per game. What went wrong? Your perception of the initial question. You were asked to calculate the combined chance of winning $100, but you've replied with adding together a chance to win $100 and a "chance to win $200" (which, as you said yourself, is actually impossible in this lottery).

Nothing went wrong. Probability deals with events, expected value deals with random variables, a.k.a. values assigned to events. You can pretty much assign any value to events (be it money, ponies, will save DCs, damage, etc.) so the two concepts have to be different. For your example, 19% is the probability, $20 is the expected value. P[X] and E[X] are totally different concepts, and E[X] is not a new branch of mathematics. If you're not convinced, write a simulation and count...

The average number of winning events
The average amount won

They WILL be different, and thus you'll need two different mathematical terms to describe them. If you tweak the parameters enough you'll find the two values can differ by a lot - thus NNescio's example, it's a proof of contradiction - which, I might add, is logically sound but also one of the riskiest ways to explain things to non-math people - it's human nature to look for information that fit one's current perception - if you tell someone that something is wrong with the picture, a normal person's first reaction is YOU are wrong (http://spikedmath.com/266.html).

Don't merge them into one concept or say you've discovered something new too hastily. And no - conditional probability is yet another concept not the same as probability nor expected value, you're finding a connection in them only because you're convinced standard math is wrong and you keep looking for wrong things to convince yourself. If in doubt, read up on their definitions on Wikipedia - the first few lines of equations are usually not too hard to understand. The next few lines are probably written by a-holes who think math should be hard to read. ;)

Let's assume Player A and Player B played the lottery for 100 rounds. A won 60 times, and B won 60 times (60% probability). Together they won 120 times. But they only played for 100 rounds. So, what is their combined probability of winning the lottery?

Recall that probability deals with events... you're confusing the meaning of an event here. At each lottery play, there're only a few possible events (A win B lose, A win B win, A lose B lose, A lose B win), and the probability values are referring to those events or combinations of those events. There're other ways to model the "possible events", as you've shown, but the way here has the property that they're mutually exclusive - it is that property that enables you to add probabilities, not due to gut feeling. The events (A win B lose, A win) are not mutually exclusive, and thus you can't add them, period. Dr Math's stuff is not wrong, but you've applied them outside of their necessary context - if you really don't trust us, you can ask Dr Math and they'll pretty much give you what we said.

If you're modeling the same lottery played over 100 rounds and you're talking about the probabilities of the possible events of those 100 rounds (there're about 1.6*10^60 such events) and their combinations - then it's a totally different matter. Expected value is useful here because it frees you from having to consider all the 1.6*10^60 events - you want a much simpler answer than that.

pendell

2011-05-08, 07:27 AM

I prepared Explosive Runes this morning.

*Explodes in Pendell's face*

Thank you, Asarlai. After all the heated argument a blast in the face was quite timely :).

Respectfully,

Brian P.

SavageWombat

2011-05-08, 04:57 PM

So basically what you're suggesting is run away and let the Fighter handle the enemy wizard.

Of what use is V then anyway?

One, it's called "tactical redeployment".

Two, the whole tactice of "everyone beat on your bizarro duplicates" is bad from a tactical standpoint to begin with. If V brought Z to the arena so that the Fighter can handle the enemy wizard, V could probably then take Thog out with one spell, if he's got a good Will save spell prepared. Even raging, Thog's Will save sucks.

And once the OotS has two members free of entaglements with evil twins, they can coordinate attacks on the remaining villains. Which pretty much spells victory on the battlefield. (Whatever Nale's plan is being another matter).

V's change of heart would be best demonstrated by allowing the other group members to help save the day, not by brilliantly using magic in an unexpected way to defeat all enemies.

Just sayin'.

Halleflux

2011-05-09, 11:54 PM

Last panel of http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0667.html.

I think that this might have an effect in this dual.
If it does not, I think a few things are possible:
1.) V dies.--Nale/someone in the linear guild kills him/her.
2.) V escapes.--Probably fairly likely, because V is still quite smart.
3.) OotS comes in and beats them off.--not likely.
4.) Tarquin/his guards/some other character comes in and helps out.--Reasonably likely.
5.) V gets captured.--relatively likely, given Nale's past actions and the fact that V is outnumbered at least 2-1. (this will probably increase to 4-1 when Nale/Sabine come in, but those two might just ambush Elan, Durkon, etc.

So yeah. I might just the spamming out ideas, but hey, one of them might be correct! :smalltongue:

EDIT:

6. Roy has been in an anti-magic cell WITHOUT his sword for a while. His dad could not have haunted him. Xykon might have left by now. and the gate might be somewhere in the empire of blood's capitol.

G-Man Graves

2011-05-10, 11:56 AM

So shouldn't V just slap YukYuk with a disentegrate? Kobolds are a vendor trash race, they don't get spell resistance.

blazingshadow

2011-05-10, 07:42 PM

v could cast invisibility and some buffs before going on the offensive (i still believe polymorph would help)

G-Man Graves

2011-05-10, 10:25 PM

v could cast invisibility and some buffs before going on the offensive (i still believe polymorph would help)

He can't attack while he's invisible. Plus, invisibility would only work against an opponent that can't cast things like True Seeing or Dispell Magic

Sr.medusa

2011-05-11, 06:02 AM

But a desintegrate (yuk yuk) and a quikened invisibility can be an inteligent curse of action, more if you run away from the drow using it.

Cizak

2011-05-12, 12:47 PM

I'm more interested in the Blackwinig vs. Quarr and the Mr. Scruffy vs. Sir Scraggly fights :smalltongue:

Hironomus

2011-05-20, 02:13 PM

I apologise if this was mentioned already in this thread (I didn't read the whole thing) but is there any doubt that Quarr is Z's familiar?
Coz I am getting that vibe and I don't know if its sarcastic or not and now am confused.
Someone clarify?

Scrynor

2011-05-24, 04:01 PM

Da'Shain

2011-05-24, 04:03 PM

Why do people keep saying we know the Devils intentions and that Quarr would not allow V to die?

I thought all we knew for sure was that V is essential to their plans and that they get a timeshare of his soul after he dies and that they have enough time "for their purposes". Isn't it entirely possible that their goal is to kill him to cash in on the debt and execute their plan (whatever that may be?).

Do we really know for sure that they are after the gates?

What am I forgetting to make everyone so sure they want the gates and want V alive?You're forgetting that the deal makes no mention of them getting his soul "after he dies".

Logically, it won't be much use after it's dead; it's a single soul, and V isn't exactly on the level of the three epic magic users they already have that they don't have to share. So the IFCC almost certainly wants V alive for some unknown purpose, most likely to do with the gates.

Kish

2011-05-24, 04:03 PM

Why do people keep saying we know the Devils intentions and that Quarr would not allow V to die?

I thought all we knew for sure was that V is essential to their plans

Yes.

and that they get a timeshare of his soul

Yes, barring the gender pronoun.

after he dies

No.

And their plan would have been ruined had Xykon killed Vaarsuvius.

ThePhantasm

2011-05-24, 04:06 PM

And their plan would have been ruined had Xykon killed Vaarsuvius.

This ^

Everyone who keeps saying that the IFCC gets V's soul only after (s)he dies is forgetting that they "felt dirty rooting for a paladin" during the V / O-Chul battle with Xykon. Their plans for V would have been screwed up if Xykon had killed V.

Gift Jeraff

2011-05-24, 04:12 PM

Do we really know for sure that they are after the gates?

What am I forgetting to make everyone so sure they want the gates and want V alive?
"If the elf dies here, this whole thing was a huge waste of time." (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0656.html)
"If our plan for the Gates really works, such a slaughter will be trivial." (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0668.html) (Though that doesn't necessarily mean they want a Gate for themselves. They might, say, want Nale to capture a Gate or they might want them all destroyed.)

I wouldn't be surprised if the IFCC allows V to die, so long as there is a nigh-guaranteed chance of someone resurrecting him/her (which wasn't the case in Xykon's tower). They do after all want to maintain the illusion that V was simply the next customer to come along.

NNescio

2011-05-24, 08:27 PM

"If the elf dies here, this whole thing was a huge waste of time." (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0656.html)
"If our plan for the Gates really works, such a slaughter will be trivial." (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0668.html) (Though that doesn't necessarily mean they want a Gate for themselves. They might, say, want Nale to capture a Gate or they might want them all destroyed.)

I wouldn't be surprised if the IFCC allows V to die, so long as there is a nigh-guaranteed chance of someone resurrecting him/her (which wasn't the case in Xykon's tower). They do after all want to maintain the illusion that V was simply the next customer to come along.

If V dies and the IFCC chooses not to claim their timeshare on V's soul (yet)... wouldn't that sort of reveal their game?

(I do agree that the IFCC intends to claim V's soul at a pivotal point where the gates are involved while the latter is still alive, but having V dying before that might throw a wench into their plans, even if he's resurrected afterwards.)

Gift Jeraff

2011-05-24, 08:31 PM

If V dies and the IFCC chooses not to claim their timeshare on V's soul (yet)... wouldn't that sort of reveal their game?
I didn't think about that. Still, if V qualifies as Evil when s/he dies, the fiends can take turns tormenting his/her soul until V is resurrected. For V, the line between what was part of the deal and what was simply part of V's afterlife would be blurred.

NNescio

2011-05-24, 08:34 PM

If V qualifies as Evil when s/he dies, the fiends can take turns tormenting his/her soul until V is resurrected. For V, the line between what is part of the deal and what is simply part of V's afterlife would be blurred.

That would work, 'though it's still somewhat risky for the IFCC, due to the uncertainty involved.

Gift Jeraff

2011-05-24, 08:46 PM

Yeah, it'd be more of a contingency plan in case V dies, I guess. Lord knows how much of their plan relies on uncertainty, so they should have a few backups up their sleeves.

zimmerwald1915

2011-05-24, 09:58 PM

792:
_________________

ROUND 3

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png takes an unknown action.
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y281/SGdentarthurdent/qarr.gif casts Scorching Ray at Blackwing, but fails to hit Blackwing's touch AC.
:vaarsuvius: takes an unknown action.
http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/6766/familierbn5.png adopts total defense, flies above Qarr.
Yukyuk takes an unknown action.
Sir Scraggly takes an unknown action.
Mister Scruffy hides behind a pillar.

_________________

ROUND 4
http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png takes an unknown action.
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y281/SGdentarthurdent/qarr.gif casts Scorching Ray at Blackwing, but fails to hit Blackwing's touch AC.
:vaarsuvius: takes an unknown action.
http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/6766/familierbn5.png adopts total defense, flies to the right of Qarr.
Yukyuk takes an unknown action.
Sir Scraggly takes an unknown action.
Mister Scruffy continues to hide behind a pillar.

_________________

ROUND 5
http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png takes an unknown action.
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y281/SGdentarthurdent/qarr.gif moves to the right of Blackwing and casts Scorching Ray at Blackwing, but fails to hit Blackwing's touch AC.
:vaarsuvius: readies either Baleful Polymorph or Dispel Magic to counterspell http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png’s next spell.
http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/6766/familierbn5.png adopts total defense, flies to the left and away from Qarr.
Yukyuk takes an unknown action.
Sir Scraggly takes an unknown action.
Mister Scruffy continues to hide behind a pillar.

_________________

ROUND 6
http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png casts Baleful Polymorph, but his spell is counterspelled.
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y281/SGdentarthurdent/qarr.gif casts Scorching Ray at Blackwing, but fails to hit Blackwing's touch AC.
:vaarsuvius: successfully counterspells http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png’s Baleful Polymorph, and counters with a Quickened Hold Person, but fails to breach http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png’s spell resistance.
http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/6766/familierbn5.png adopts total defense, flies below and then below and to the left of Qarr.
Yukyuk fires one hand crossbow at :vaarsuvius: and hits, but fails to penetrate :vaarsuvius:’s DR. When Sir Scraggly finishes moving towards Mister Scruffy, Yukyuk dismounts, fires his second hand crossbow at Mister Scruffy, and hits.
Sir Scraggly senses Mister Scruffy with Scent, and moves to reveal Mister Scruffy to YukYuk. After Yukyuk dismounts and fires, Sir Scraggly begins to chase Mister Scruffy.
Mister Scruffy is revealed, and begins to run from Sir Scraggly.

EDIT: nvm, see below.

SavageWombat

2011-05-24, 10:59 PM

Couldn't the raven / imp fight be considered to be simultaneous with the drow/elf fight? It would save wasted rounds.

zimmerwald1915

2011-05-24, 11:10 PM

Couldn't the raven / imp fight be considered to be simultaneous with the drow/elf fight? It would save wasted rounds.
It could, but we don't know that familiars/animal companions share their masters' initiative in OOTS. However, it was pointed out in the IC thread that Qarr's scorching rays probably come in pairs since he has to be at least an eighth level sorcerer to cast Charm Monster. Incidentally, that also means he has to be below eleventh level, since his rays don't come in triplets, but more importantly that cuts down on the number of rounds where we don't know what Vaarsuvius and Zz'dtri are doing. Depending on whether or not you can ready to counterspell after having taken a standard action, the whole fight could look like this:

EDIT: nvm, readying a counterspell is a standard action.

EDIT EDIT: revised fight:

_________________

SURPRISE ROUND

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png casts Flesh to Stone (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/fleshToStone.htm) on :haley:

:haley: fails Fortitude save and is turned to stone!

:elan: is surprised (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/combat/initiative.htm):smalleek:!

:vaarsuvius: is surprised (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/combat/initiative.htm):smallmad:!

_________________

ROUND 1

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png wins Initiative (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/combat/initiative.htm)

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png readies action (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/combat/specialInitiativeActions.htm) to cast lighting spell on :vaarsuvius: (condition: movement or casting a spell)

:vaarsuvius: casts Fly (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/fly.htm) and moves next to http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png

Stupid action right there as he might have simply blasted Zz'dtri from the ground! V is his old http://forum.mymcomm.net/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/facepalm.gif self

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png casts lighting spell (likely Lightning Bolt (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/lightningBolt.htm), since Chain Lightning (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/chainLightning.htm) would also have affected Elan).

:vaarsuvius: takes damage!

Damage calculation:

Since http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.pnghas at least caster level 11, the Lightning bolt would do 10d6 = 35 average Electricity damage. Seeing how :vaarsuvius: winces, likely he failed the Reflex save (fits with his known low Dex and Wizard class) and takes full damage. Considering :vaarsuvius: has from 39 to 54 average hitpoints (either 10 or 12 Con), even if there are also magic items with enhancement bonus to Con, this attack still takes a huge chunk of his hp.

:vaarsuvius: casts Shrink Item (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/shrinkItem.htm) from a scroll

:vaarsuvius: casts Quickened Haste (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/haste.htm)

http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/6766/familierbn5.png is summoned

:elan: moves

_________________

ROUND 2

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png readies action again? (?)

:vaarsuvius: moves up to Z again

Yukyuk on his mount Sir Scraggly enters the fray and attacks V! (another readied action?)

:vaarsuvius: takes damage!

Damage calculation:

Two small hand crossbows (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/equipment/weapons.htm#crossbowHand): base damage 1d3; both bolts hit :vaarsuvius: for average 4 piercing damage (likely more, however, since if Yukyuk is any match for Belkar, his weapons would be enchanted etc.) plus either average 7 Sneak Attack damage or average 14 Sneak Attack damage (from 1d6 or 2d6 extra damage on each bolt)

:vaarsuvius: casts Stoneskin (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/stoneskin.htm).

_________________

ROUND 3

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y281/SGdentarthurdent/qarr.gif is summoned, casts Scorching Ray (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/scorchingRay.htm) at http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/6766/familierbn5.png but fails to hit touch AC with either ray.

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png readies another action.

:vaarsuvius: readies a Dispel Magic (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/dispelMagic.htm) to attempt to counterspell http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png’s next spell.

http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/6766/familierbn5.png flies above and then to the right of http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y281/SGdentarthurdent/qarr.gif

Yukyuk takes two move actions to reload both hand crossbows.

Sir Scraggly, because Yukyuk is still mounted and is using move actions for something else, does not move.

_________________

ROUND 4

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y281/SGdentarthurdent/qarr.gif casts Scorching Ray (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/scorchingRay.htm) at http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/6766/familierbn5.png again, but again fails to hit touch AC with either ray.

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png, his readied actions from the previous two turns not having been triggered, decides to cast Baleful Polymorph (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/balefulPolymorph.htm), which is counterspelled by :vaarsuvius:

:vaarsuvius: , having successfully counterspelled http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h87/osiris32/drizzle.png’s Baleful Polymorph (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/balefulPolymorph.htm), casts Quickened Hold Person (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/holdPerson.htm), but fails to breach Spell Resistance.

http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/6766/familierbn5.png flies below http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y281/SGdentarthurdent/qarr.gif in an attempt to get closer to :vaarsuvius:

Yukyuk fires one crossbow at :vaarsuvius: and hits, but fails to penetrate Damage Reduction. His mount, Sir Scraggly, senses http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g68/Cats_Are_Aliens/Banners/MrScruffy.png and carries Yukyuk towards him. As part of the move action, Yukyuk dismounts, and then he fires his second hand crossbow at http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g68/Cats_Are_Aliens/Banners/MrScruffy.png.

http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g68/Cats_Are_Aliens/Banners/MrScruffy.png takes damage!

Damage calculation:

One small hand crossbow (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/equipment/weapons.htm#crossbowHand): base damage 1d3; the bolt hit http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g68/Cats_Are_Aliens/Banners/MrScruffy.png for average 2 piercing damage (likely more, however, since if Yukyuk is any match for Belkar, his weapons would be enchanted etc.)

Sir Scraggly begins chasing http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g68/Cats_Are_Aliens/Banners/MrScruffy.png

http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g68/Cats_Are_Aliens/Banners/MrScruffy.png flees from Yukyuk and Sir Scraggly