d20 Probability Thresholds

[Merk]

In your opinion, in the following situations, what percent chance of success would be acceptable for attempting the action against a level-appropriate opponent? By acceptable", I mean "if the chance was any lower, I would not attempt this action".


A Warblade using a strike maneuver.
A melee brute using a bull rush.
A melee brute using a trip.
A wizard casting a No Save SR Yes CC spell at a single enemy.
A wizard casting a save, SR Yes CC spell at a group of 3-4 enemies.

[gkathellar]

You can't set these forward without providing context. Depending on the situation, I might attempt any of these with a low chance of success, or might wait for better odds.

[Merk]

A more concrete instance:

Consider a fighter dueling a single opponent. The fighter can drop his opponent in 3 strikes (and knows this), and each attack has a 60% chance to hit. The opponent also can drop the fighter in 3 strikes and each attack has a 60% chance to hit. If a trip attempt were 100% likely to land, it would probably be a smart move for the fighter to do so.

Then my question restated would be: At what % chance of Trip success would you prefer to attack instead of trip?

[gkathellar]

In that case, anything above 60%. Unless my math is faulty, which it probably is. (I guess I deserved that C in Math and Everyday Life.)

Of course, if the fighter who has a rogue friend who can flank, that changes things by at least 10%.

[Merk]

In that case, anything above 60%. Unless my math is faulty, which it probably is. (I guess I deserved that C in Math and Everyday Life.)

Of course, if the fighter who has a rogue friend who can flank, that changes things by at least 10%.

I assume you mean anything below 60% = attack, anything above 60% = trip. I think this helps me frame the question I really want to ask:

Let's say you're in a battle against a number of level-appropriate foes, and your only option is to attack them for HP damage. If your chance to hit was 100%, the fight would allow no room for dodging, and the combat is entirely deterministic and highly dependent on who goes first. If your chance to hit was 5%, it would be a flurry of misses on both sides and combat would take forever. In your opinion, what is the "sweet spot" for baseline attack accuracy that balances these issues?

[Socratov]

I assume you mean anything below 60% = attack, anything above 60% = trip. I think this helps me frame the question I really want to ask:

Let's say you're in a battle against a number of level-appropriate foes, and your only option is to attack them for HP damage. If your chance to hit was 100%, the fight would allow no room for dodging, and the combat is entirely deterministic and highly dependent on who goes first. If your chance to hit was 5%, it would be a flurry of misses on both sides and combat would take forever. In your opinion, what is the "sweet spot" for baseline attack accuracy that balances these issues?

you forgot the 1 in 1000000 baseline, because everybody knows that 1/1000000 chances work out 9/10 times :smallbiggrin:

[ShneekeyTheLost]

I would rather define my odds to be 95%, or in some cases, 100%. Which is, sadly, pathetically easy to do.