Setting brainstorming: a tiny, isolated society in an unfamiliar world

[Craftsdwarf]

Suppose that a few hundred men and women from a low-magic traditional medieval fantasy world find themselves thrust by a sudden flash of plot into a new world: an untamed wilderness, rich in natural resources and filled with exotic plants and dangerous animals, but otherwise uninhabited. They have no way to get back to or communicate with their previous host society, and so they must build a new one. These are unwilling pioneers: they were not prepared, chosen, or equipped for this event.

We can assume that none of them just happen to have rare knowledge that would be taught only at institutions of higher learning, none can wield any kind of magic, and none are exceptionally skilled at their trades. They're regular folk: they have experience with hunting, farming, smithing, and practicing various trades. Importantly, however, all their actual experience with "the wild" is from a different wild, with different plants and animals, and they have essentially no tools.

We can further assume that these people are mostly willing to work together. However, they're not automatons, nor are they perfectly moral. Occasionally someone will exhibit antisocial behaviour, such as stealing and fighting.

What happens in the first few weeks? How does the society develop over the next ten years or so? After the next two hundred years or so, how are the descendants of the initial unwilling pioneers faring? Random questions, with things I'm particularly interested in bolded:


What advantages (skills, equipment, absence of immediate dangers) do they need to have a reasonable chance of not just all dying horribly? How many do they have to be to spawn a small colony that isn't too badly marred by inbreeding?
What skilled trades will develop, and when? How long will it take them before they can fashion metal tools? How long before they progress from foraging and hunting to agriculture? What materials will they use for tools and buildings?
How will they deal with "scarcity of customers" for the skilled trades? For instance, this page suggests (http://www222.pair.com/sjohn/blueroom/demog.htm) that in a larger city one might expect one rope-maker per 1,900 people. A colony of two hundred that is totally isolated clearly still needs at least one, since rope is essential, but any such rope-maker will only have around 10% of their normal customer base. Similarly for barrel-makers, locksmiths, weavers, blacksmiths, butchers, and doctors, and many other trades. What happens?
What sort of antisocial behaviour is likely to occur? How will they deal with it? What moral norms will develop?
What sort of culture will develop? What will children aspire to be when they grow up? How do people entertain themselves and others?
Because there are so few people and no other intelligent group, and we have assumed that the society will survive, it seems unlikely that there will be a lot of large-scale warring. However, people will take up arms for hunting, and at least eventually, the society might need some sort of peacekeeping force (say, a sheriff). How do these hunters and small-town policemen differ from true soldiers? What weapons do they prefer, and what traditional medieval fantasy weapons do they shun?
If they could choose to have among them one particularly knowledgeable and skilled individual from the old world, such as an architect, an engineer, a chemist, a great warrior or a trained doctor, what sort of person would be most beneficial to choose? How would they put this person to use?

[Knaight]

What advantages (skills, equipment, absence of immediate dangers) do they need to have a reasonable chance of not just all dying horribly? How many do they have to be to spawn a small colony that isn't too badly marred by inbreeding?
The advantages needed really depend on the specifics of where they are isolated. For instance, if they are at the extreme south or the extreme north they need warm clothing, blankets, and the skills needed to build shelters that can deal with very cold conditions. If they are coastal, they will need to be able to fish, which implies a need for boats, nets, and fishing spears. So on and so forth.

As for the inbreeding problem, a few hundred is doable. Even less is doable with careful population control, but that is hardly realistic.


What skilled trades will develop, and when? How long will it take them before they can fashion metal tools? How long before they progress from foraging and hunting to agriculture? What materials will they use for tools and buildings?
Again, this depends on the specifics. With agriculture, the main concerns are elevation and latitude. If both of these are similar then the same crops can be used as in the old spot, and I'd expect agriculture to start up pretty quickly, though dealing with different soils, sources of water, so on and so forth do change that. If the former crops won't work though, there are going to be major delays when it comes to agriculture development. With that said, textiles, hunting/fishing equipment, and medicine are basically guaranteed. With domestic animals, animal husbandry skills are also expected.


How will they deal with "scarcity of customers" for the skilled trades? For instance, this page suggests (http://www222.pair.com/sjohn/blueroom/demog.htm) that in a larger city one might expect one rope-maker per 1,900 people. A colony of two hundred that is totally isolated clearly still needs at least one, since rope is essential, but any such rope-maker will only have around 10% of their normal customer base. Similarly for barrel-makers, locksmiths, weavers, blacksmiths, butchers, and doctors, and many other trades. What happens?
These trades (at least the ones that are actually consistently scarce) are probably going to be side trades. Dedicated barrel wrights are unlikely, as are dedicated rope makers, though making rope isn't actually hugely difficult to learn and may well be widely distributed throughout the entire population. Similarly, butchers and weavers aren't necessarily going to exist as specialists, where people are generally going to handle that work within family structures (the concept of a butcher is a fairly urban one, as producing meat from animals was extremely widely known in societies with significant amounts of hunting). Locksmiths probably just won't exist. The only one on this list really needed is a specialized doctor of some sort, and tiny frontier societies are liable to need more medical care anyways.

I'd also note that much of the specialization is only needed for things of a certain quality. It takes specialists to build a galleon, knowledge of how to build a canoe may well be spread throughout most of a population.


What sort of antisocial behaviour is likely to occur? How will they deal with it? What moral norms will develop?
Moral norms are likely to be kept from their original society for a while, though mannerisms and such are going to change quickly. The same applies to antisocial behavior - there will be violence, including murder, as there always has been. The reaction to these things will likely also be imported from the original culture, though use of imprisonment is less likely due to the strain on populations.


What sort of culture will develop? What will children aspire to be when they grow up? How do people entertain themselves and others?
Again, without understanding both the original culture and the geographic realities it is incredibly hard to guess at any of these things. The only real exception is entertainment - storytelling and music will almost certainly be present in some form.


Because there are so few people and no other intelligent group, and we have assumed that the society will survive, it seems unlikely that there will be a lot of large-scale warring. However, people will take up arms for hunting, and at least eventually, the society might need some sort of peacekeeping force (say, a sheriff). How do these hunters and small-town policemen differ from true soldiers? What weapons do they prefer, and what traditional medieval fantasy weapons do they shun?
The main thing to note is that there will likely be less change as to the typed of weapons and more as to the manufacture. Weapon and armor smiths tend to rely on communities of the same for development, and as such there is likely to be little in the way of sophisticated weapons or armor. Swords are almost entirely out, spears are going to be closer to pointed sticks than complex polearms, anti-armor weapons will be largely irrelevant, so on and so forth. Still, expect spears, expect shields, expect bows, and expect axes.


If they could choose to have among them one particularly knowledgeable and skilled individual from the old world, such as an architect, an engineer, a chemist, a great warrior or a trained doctor, what sort of person would be most beneficial to choose? How would they put this person to use?
Oddly enough, I'd say that some sort of bureaucratic administrator is likely the best. Organization is necessary, and someone good at managing structures and collating information in a way that it can be distributed will be extremely valuable. That said, this is subject to change based on changes in the environment.

As for long term development - I'd recommend reading Jared Diamond's Guns Germs and Steel. It is by no means perfect, and I'd contest a fair amount of what is written regarding specifics, but for broad overviews of societal development for a lay audience it is very good. It is also available and approachable, which is nice.

[Calimehter]

'Lord of the Flies' might be a bit pessemistic, but maybe more realistic in the end.