Darash
2013-03-25, 07:28 PM
This is my first post on this forum, so hello everyone!
I'm new to role-playing games and finished my first Beginner Box Pathfinder game just a few weeks ago. In this short adventure you start at level 1, find some items specifically designed to give you an edge against the BBEG, and face him in a battle where he runs away.
I played as the GM and rolled horribly, while my Fighter friend rolled very high and did a lot of damage. As such, he was disappointed when the BBEG ran away, and was sure he could solo him. I told him the odds of winning were abysmal.
Now, being a science nerd, asked myself how low the odds really were. So I took my trusty Matlab and wrote a script to calculate chances of winning. I'll let the results speak for themselves..
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/31956412/OddsFighterVsBbeg.bmp
Vertical axis is chance (0.4=40%)
Horizontal axis is number of turns (negative for Fighter wins, positive for BBEG wins)
This piece of code actually works for any number of players versus monsters, with very (very) crude assumptions. I know it has little to no practical implications, but just wanted to share ;)
Assumptions:
-The code uses the brute force method of fighting: Just hit things with your strongest melee attack
-Every unit has only one attack
-Every unit can at least hit one (hostile) target
-Every unit hits the first possible target it 'sees'
Stats of Fighter:
HP 12
AC 17
Attack Bonus +6
Damage 1d8+10(+2d6 not on crit)
Critical Threat 19-20
Stats of BBEG:
HP 54
AC 21
Attack Bonus +10
Damage 1d10+3
Critical Threat 20
I'm new to role-playing games and finished my first Beginner Box Pathfinder game just a few weeks ago. In this short adventure you start at level 1, find some items specifically designed to give you an edge against the BBEG, and face him in a battle where he runs away.
I played as the GM and rolled horribly, while my Fighter friend rolled very high and did a lot of damage. As such, he was disappointed when the BBEG ran away, and was sure he could solo him. I told him the odds of winning were abysmal.
Now, being a science nerd, asked myself how low the odds really were. So I took my trusty Matlab and wrote a script to calculate chances of winning. I'll let the results speak for themselves..
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/31956412/OddsFighterVsBbeg.bmp
Vertical axis is chance (0.4=40%)
Horizontal axis is number of turns (negative for Fighter wins, positive for BBEG wins)
This piece of code actually works for any number of players versus monsters, with very (very) crude assumptions. I know it has little to no practical implications, but just wanted to share ;)
Assumptions:
-The code uses the brute force method of fighting: Just hit things with your strongest melee attack
-Every unit has only one attack
-Every unit can at least hit one (hostile) target
-Every unit hits the first possible target it 'sees'
Stats of Fighter:
HP 12
AC 17
Attack Bonus +6
Damage 1d8+10(+2d6 not on crit)
Critical Threat 19-20
Stats of BBEG:
HP 54
AC 21
Attack Bonus +10
Damage 1d10+3
Critical Threat 20