How safe are we to assume the Oracle's predictions are correct?

[Calavera]

The Oracle has not yet been shown to be wrong about anything, and to be right about quite a lot. Has Rich ever made a "Word of God" statement that the Oracle is indeed infallible when "on the record", or is it feasible that the Oracle's so far 100% record is setting us up to definitively believe something that is not true?

[sam79]

The answer to the thread title question, in two words, is "very safe".

In three words, "very safe, but..."

In the commentary of War and XPs, the author explained that the Oracle does gives for real prophesies but (like every genuine oracle in every work or literature ever) the prophesies don't necessarily come true in the way the receiver (or indeed the audience) expect.

Specifically regarding Elan's happy ending prophesy, the author explained that this is his guarantee to the audience that, while the story will take dark turns, it will have a positive outcome. For a certain value of positive, of course. And indeed for a certain value of outcome.

[Codyage]

The answer to the thread title question, in two words, is "very safe".

In three words, "very safe, but..."

In the commentary of War and XPs, the author explained that the Oracle does gives for real prophesies but (like every genuine oracle in every work or literature ever) the prophesies don't necessarily come true in the way the receiver (or indeed the audience) expect.

Specifically regarding Elan's happy ending prophesy, the author explained that this is his guarantee to the audience that, while the story will take dark turns, it will have a positive outcome. For a certain value of positive, of course. And indeed for a certain value of outcome.

Except IMMEDIATELY after that when referencing Durkon.

WXP continued...

He says he turns it on his head, and goes on to say in this case, Elan's happy ending may not be what the audience wants or expects of him, as long as Elan himself is satisfied.

So as long as Elan is pleased with it, it can come true. Am I just reading it wrong, or is it Elan's decision if it is a happy ending?

[sam79]

Except IMMEDIATELY after that when referencing Durkon.

WXP continued...

He says he turns it on his head, and goes on to say in this case, Elan's happy ending may not be what the audience wants or expects of him, as long as Elan himself is satisfied.

So as long as Elan is pleased with it, it can come true. Am I just reading it wrong, or is it Elan's decision if it is a happy ending?

I think you are reading it right. It is kinda what I was trying to say. The ending will be happy, for a certain value of happy. But Elan being happy with the outcome rests on certain assumptions; Haley, for example, will probably not end up tortured horribly to death. Nor will Roy. And so on. Not sure how much of this we should be spoilering, so I'll go broad.

[Torrasque]

Rich used an entire page of authors comments on his love for foreshadowing (in this case through the oracle), and gave several direct statements about their eventual fulfillments as already mentioned.
It is safe to assume they will all come true.

[David Argall]

The Oracle has been shown to be literally correct, if often misleading. There are cases where the oracle has been wrong [see his telling Roy he will forget his visiting before he zaps Roy back to the clouds] which are explained as his not bothering to look into the future to be sure. But his predictions are still highly reliable, and any theory that is based on his being wrong is a heavy underdog, if not outright laughable.
In the case of Belker, about the only thing going for ideas of his staying in the story for more than a few pages more is that there are so many predictions suggesting his demise. One can see our writer trying to model the ancient Indian prediction "I will not kill you with the wet or the dry, nor the..." [A demon had hidden his soul in the foam or the sea wave. One can argue that should be considered wet, but can at least argue it doesn't have enough water to be considered wet.] He makes a half-dozen predictions that Belker will die just so he can make them all mislead.
Now one idea here is that Belkar will become undead [not breathing, like the taste of his next birthday cake] on the Snarl's world [not long for this world]. But the evidence seems quite convincing that Belkar will not be present for the final fight, and about the only argument is that it is made to look convincing and therefore it can't be convincing.

[Copperdragon]

The Oracle has not yet been shown to be wrong about anything, and to be right about quite a lot. Has Rich ever made a "Word of God" statement that the Oracle is indeed infallible when "on the record", or is it feasible that the Oracle's so far 100% record is setting us up to definitively believe something that is not true?

A prediction by an Oracle is pointless unless it becomes true OR is what is going to happen - but is explicitly subverted by the actions of the main characters.
So far, all predictions made came true in a very specific way, so it stands to assume that everything the Oracle says is to be handled as reliable fortelling (even if it's not turning out as might be expected).

The answer is: fullly and complete 100%.

[Onyavar]

When the giant made the prophecy about V's absolute arcane power come true, he made the title of the strip a reference to the prophecy. "[for all] the wrong reasons".

This strip is titled "Happy ending". So (with all the posts above) I assume: Yes, it's this one: Elans happy ending.
The story will go on after that, and it will also have a GOOD ending, but I'm sure it won't be so happy as the one that Elan is experiencing just now. Which is sad. :smallmad:

[rodneyAnonymous]

This strip is titled "Happy ending". So (with all the posts above) I assume: Yes, it's this one: Elans happy ending.
The story will go on after that, and it will also have a GOOD ending, but I'm sure it won't be so happy as the one that Elan is experiencing just now...:

No, Elan didn't ask if his ending would be happy, he asked if the story would have a happy ending. ("Yes -- for you at least.") This is not the fulfillment of that prophecy.

[Winter Light]

When the giant made the prophecy about V's absolute arcane power come true, he made the title of the strip a reference to the prophecy. "[for all] the wrong reasons".

This strip is titled "Happy ending". So (with all the posts above) I assume: Yes, it's this one: Elans happy ending.
The story will go on after that, and it will also have a GOOD ending, but I'm sure it won't be so happy as the one that Elan is experiencing just now. Which is sad. :smallmad:


No, Elan didn't ask if his ending would be happy, he asked if the story would have a happy ending. ("Yes -- for you at least.") This is not the fulfillment of that prophecy.

Plus, Elan already got his happy ending. (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0752.html)

...I'm sorry, that was bad.

[Ron Miel]

"It is never safe to assume" - Neil Gaiman

"If you assume it makes an ass out of u and me " - Felix Ungar

[WindStruck]

Oh, it's an absolute certainty that the oracle will be "correct", one way or the other... What is questionable, however, is if the fanbase's expected interpretations of said prophecies turn out how they think.

[Bulldog Psion]

I already expect Belkar's prophecy to be subverted in an unexpected way, especially now that Roy expects him to die fighting Xykon. :smallamused:

[Thrillhouse]

No, Elan didn't ask if his ending would be happy, he asked if the story would have a happy ending. ("Yes -- for you at least.") This is not the fulfillment of that prophecy.

Although, if he never comes out of the illusion(they can't break it, he gets killed, whatever), then "for him at least" the story did end happily.

Though I really don't see things turning that dark. It would be a very bleak comic if that happened to Elan.

[rodneyAnonymous]

That is also a subtle change to the framing of the question, which was about the story's end, not the end of the story from Elan's perspective.

[hoff]

I have to say that since his power comes from a god and the gods are not above the snarl, the snarl intervention can change any prophecy the oracle has made.

But considering the snarl has not shown up yet and we have reasons to believe he is not around anymore this point might be moot.

[Porthos]

I have to say that since his power comes from a god and the gods are not above the snarl, the snarl intervention can change any prophecy the oracle has made.

But considering the snarl has not shown up yet and we have reasons to believe he is not around anymore this point might be moot.

The Oracle also cheats by looking into the future (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0330.html) and reading the compiled strips in the books.

One might almost say that the Oracle's power comes from Rich and not Tiamat. :smalltongue:

To put it a different way, while the Fourth Wall is pretty opaque for all of the characters, it's pretty much an open window for the Oracle. :smallamused:

[thereaper]

Technically speaking, the Oracle is no more omniscient than the source of his predictions: Tiamat (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0566.html), who we know (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0667.html) is not infallible (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0668.html).

For practical purposes? He's never going to be wrong, because his entire narrative purpose was foreshadowing.

This is, however, no guarantee that the prophecies will turn out the way we expect.

[theangelJean]

To put it a different way, while the Fourth Wall is pretty opaque for all of the characters, it's pretty much an open window for the Oracle. :smallamused:

He can see us? :smalleek:

I value my privacy!

[Olinser]

Everything that the Oracle says 'on the record' (i.e. glowing green and floating), will absolutely come true, though HOW it will come true may be argued due to the wording.

Anything else the Oracle says while just talking to people is not necessarily a prophecy, and is up for debate.

[Kazyan]

Among tropes, "the prophecy comes true" has a played-straight-to-averted ratio slightly higher than "the heroes win". I'm certain that the oracle's predictions are correct.

[Flame of Anor]

This strip is titled "Happy ending". So (with all the posts above) I assume: Yes, it's this one: Elans happy ending.
The story will go on after that, and it will also have a GOOD ending, but I'm sure it won't be so happy as the one that Elan is experiencing just now. Which is sad. :smallmad:

That's just not plausible. The fact that Elan is happy now--and quite a few philosophers would dispute that claim--and that he thinks it's the ending does not mean it is the ending.

[The Extinguisher]

Oracles in fiction are, as a rule, either 100% wrong or 100% right. It ruins any dramatic impact the prophecy might have if it leaves you wondering if they're right or not.

[ZarDaranth]

I've always assumed that generally vague predictions from Oracles in literature were meant to be vague for a reason. It gives wiggle room for the complete interpretation of the prediction, and to mess with the minds of people who think that there's only one way to do things.

My main problem is when he mentioned Belkar's demise is #329. He was talking off the cuff, knowing fully well that Belkar was going to shank him, and he probably enjoys screwing with people that will cause him pain (the druid/bear death and making his locale into an official town). His two comments in #329 are:

1.) Belkar shouldn't bother funding his IRA.
2.) Belkar should savor his next birthday cake.

If we take these as official "oracle prophecy", then yeah, the easy answer would be that Belkar dies. Roy and Haley are the two that we see acknowledging the prophecy after Roy's ressurection. Roy, being lawful, would assume death, since it's an easy solution; Haley, not liking Belkar, would follow in suit because it's in line with what she wants for the little terror.

But what if Belkar has a change of heart, spending the rest of his life feeling bad about Durkon dying in his place? He might not ever fund an IRA (I always assumed IRAs for adventurers in D&D involved diamonds and an appropriately leveled cleric - something that wouldn't likely be available for him after Durkon died, since Durkon was likely the only one who would ever ressurect him) and he wouldn't savor a birthday cake again because he'd be reminded of Durkon, who died so he could live.

[Throknor]

I've always assumed that generally vague predictions from Oracles in literature were meant to be vague for a reason. It gives wiggle room for the complete interpretation of the prediction, and to mess with the minds of people who think that there's only one way to do things.
In Ursula K. Le Guin's book Left Hand of Darkness there is a group that performs prophecies that are 100% accurate. Unfortunately, their stated goal is to expose the futility of knowing the correct answer to the wrong question. In other words the answer isn't vague but the question is exposed to be.

I doubt this is the only such example, but what stuck out to me was how explicit they were. This isn't the Giant's Oracle's goal, but it does seem to have the same result: the answers were only as useful as the questions were. It is even toyed with during the Question Dead strips; while not prophesies per se Roy didn't think of perfect questions and ended up with accurate but useless answers.

Consider Roy's last Oracle question: he spent a lot of time writing it to leave the Oracle no wiggle room, so he was surprised by Xykon's attack. The answer still turned out to be useful since it gave him the next gate to go to, but that wasn't what he wanted from it.

So my take from all of this is that while the predictions are only as useful as one's understandings of their contexts they are all correct.

[Olinser]

I've always assumed that generally vague predictions from Oracles in literature were meant to be vague for a reason. It gives wiggle room for the complete interpretation of the prediction, and to mess with the minds of people who think that there's only one way to do things.

My main problem is when he mentioned Belkar's demise is #329. He was talking off the cuff, knowing fully well that Belkar was going to shank him, and he probably enjoys screwing with people that will cause him pain (the druid/bear death and making his locale into an official town). His two comments in #329 are:

1.) Belkar shouldn't bother funding his IRA.
2.) Belkar should savor his next birthday cake.

If we take these as official "oracle prophecy", then yeah, the easy answer would be that Belkar dies. Roy and Haley are the two that we see acknowledging the prophecy after Roy's ressurection. Roy, being lawful, would assume death, since it's an easy solution; Haley, not liking Belkar, would follow in suit because it's in line with what she wants for the little terror.

But what if Belkar has a change of heart, spending the rest of his life feeling bad about Durkon dying in his place? He might not ever fund an IRA (I always assumed IRAs for adventurers in D&D involved diamonds and an appropriately leveled cleric - something that wouldn't likely be available for him after Durkon died, since Durkon was likely the only one who would ever ressurect him) and he wouldn't savor a birthday cake again because he'd be reminded of Durkon, who died so he could live.

Those are just the Oracle talking in regular conversation, and are totally up for debate about how accurate they may be. The Oracle has shown he's more than willing to lie and obfusticate in normal conversation, as evidenced when he was trying to convince Belkar that he had killed Roy, Miko and Miko's horse in an attempt to not be stabbed to death.

The only REAL applicable, inarguable prophecy is that:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0572.html

"Belkar will draw his last breath - ever - by the end of the year".

And it is a huge dead horse on this forum. The fandom is essentially divided into four camps:

1) Belkar will die. The end.

2) Belkar will become some kind of sentient undead (and with Malack's appearance 'Belkula' has become the top pick, though ghost has also been mentioned).

3) Belkar will be transformed into something else that doesn't breathe.

4) Belkar will pull a 'that halfling is dead', and forever change to "The Belkster", or some other name change that technically means, "Belkar is dead".

None of them can be proven, so arguments usually degenerate into, "I'm right and you're wrong so PTHBTBBBBB.

[ZarDaranth]

I'm still not convinced about Belkar actually dying.

I mean, if Belkar has a change of heart, is the same evil little murderous miscreant even alive? I keep thinking about Durkon's prophecies from both the Oracle and from SoD; I feel like there's a little bit of interpretation there in some of the prophecies.

[Peelee]

Everything that the Oracle says 'on the record' (i.e. glowing green and floating), will absolutely come true, though HOW it will come true may be argued due to the wording.

Anything else the Oracle says while just talking to people is not necessarily a prophecy, and is up for debate.

My belief (which may well be a commonly-held one around here, I'm unsure) is the green glowies only affect the person receiving the prophecy, in that they remember it after passing through the memory charm. It does not appear to effect the actual prophesying in any way, as he frequently and off-handedly predicts the future in casual conversation - which is why he put the memory charm in place to begin with. Simple, logical, and clean. A fine theory.

[rodneyAnonymous]

Also, given that the Oracle didn't actually say "Belkar will die", I kind of expect something besides that to happen.