How tough is 9 intimidate to beat at level 1?

[CyberThread]

So my crusader has 9 points in intimidate skill (racial , skill points, nymph kiss, cha bonus)


How good is that at level 1,and for carrying it onwards when maxed skill points?

[Adindra]

dont forget to spend 50gp for a masterwork intimidate tool for the +2 circumstance if i remember correctly

[avr]

Well, the target is (1d20 + character level or Hit Dice + target’s Wisdom bonus [if any] + target’s modifiers on saves against fear); a BBEG who happens to be an evil cleric will still probably fail more than half the time at this level unless he/she casts remove fear, which would either be metagame cheating if precast or a poor use of a combat action IMO.

If there's no one in the party who will take advantage of it with other fear effects that's still a waste of your combat action though. Shaken isn't that debilitating an effect on its own.

[Slipperychicken]

If there's no one in the party who will take advantage of it with other fear effects that's still a waste of your combat action though. Shaken isn't that debilitating an effect on its own.

I imagine he's going to use the Duel of Wills option from ToB, which basically allows him to impose a small debuff for free against one enemy at the start of combat.

[CyberThread]

right now I actually have

stand still
dreadfull wrath
and nymph kiss as my start feats

[Incorrect]

Buffing intimidate:
Most people remember the skill synergy with Bluff, but some forget that you gain a +4 bonus on your Intimidate check for every size category that you are larger than your target.

[Malak'ai]

dont forget to spend 50gp for a masterwork intimidate tool for the +2 circumstance if i remember correctly

And what exactly would a Masterwork Intimidation tool be?
I'm not meaning "explain Masterwork tools", I'm meaning what kind of item it would be? Would it be a mask? A facial tattoo? What?

[Slipperychicken]

Buffing intimidate:
Most people remember the skill synergy with Bluff, but some forget that you gain a +4 bonus on your Intimidate check for every size category that you are larger than your target.

Also, talk to your DM about the variant rule which lets you apply your Strength mod to Intimidate when you make displays of strength as part of the check (like breaking objects and flexing). It both makes sense and lets you use a higher stat.

For a masterwork tool, consider justifying it by spending 50gp to make your armor scary and awesome. You'll end up looking like Sauron, which is a bonus. Alternatively, spend it on a creepy shrunken head you keep on a necklace.


EDIT: More masterwork tool ideas. Scary-looking weapon(s), visibly-displayed severed body parts/organs, flaming beard wicks (seriously, Blackbeard actually did it, tying small ropes to his beard and lighting them so it looked like his beard was on fire), Cthulhu statuette, eye patch.

[Silvanoshei]

And what exactly would a Masterwork Intimidation tool be?

This (https://si0.twimg.com/profile_images/1697024721/Chuck_Norris.jpg) :belkar:

[PersonMan]

which would either be metagame cheating if precast

Not necessarily. Assuming you've fought the BBEG's minions before, all he needs is one survivor with a story about a terrifying enemy to know to defend himself against fear beforehand.

[Xefas]

And what exactly would a Masterwork Intimidation tool be?
I'm not meaning "explain Masterwork tools", I'm meaning what kind of item it would be? Would it be a mask? A facial tattoo? What?

If I recall, there's a feat somewhere that lets you collect gruesome trophies from your kills, and apply them as a form of 'intimidate' tool.

So, a Masterwork Tool of Intimidation might be a necklace, to which you add a single tooth from everything you kill (which would be Craft; you can just buy one pre-assembled for 50gp, and be lame). Or, perhaps, enormous, impractical pauldron spikes that you stick skulls on the end of.

Maybe it could be something that literally makes you act more intimidating. It could be, say, a doll that belonged to your little girl before she was murdered, so when you go into the tavern to shake down thugs for info, you bring out the doll, and things get ugly.

[Ashtagon]

And what exactly would a Masterwork Intimidation tool be?
I'm not meaning "explain Masterwork tools", I'm meaning what kind of item it would be? Would it be a mask? A facial tattoo? What?

Personally, I'm of the opinion that masterwork tools are circumstantial in their bonus. That means their bonus doesn't always apply. A masterwork ghillie suit would grant a +2 Hide bonus in forests, but is of no help in the city centre. A masterwork forge is great for Craft (metals), but not so hot for Craft (woodworking). A masterwork scary tattoo might grant a +2 bonus to Intimidate against city folk, but probably not against hills tribes. A culture that is scared of magic might allows you to get the +2 circumstance bonus to Intimidate from wearing well-made wizardly robes; but that won't do the trick in the great school of magic in Glantri City.

They call it a circumstance bonus for a reason.

[Malak'ai]

Also, talk to your DM about the variant rule which lets you apply your Strength mod to Intimidate when you make displays of strength as part of the check (like breaking objects and flexing). It both makes sense and lets you use a higher stat.

For a masterwork tool, consider justifying it by spending 50gp to make your armor scary and awesome. You'll end up looking like Sauron, which is a bonus. Alternatively, spend it on a creepy shrunken head you keep on a necklace.


EDIT: More masterwork tool ideas. Scary-looking weapon(s), visibly-displayed severed body parts/organs, flaming beard wicks (seriously, Blackbeard actually did it, tying small ropes to his beard and lighting them so it looked like his beard was on fire), Cthulhu statuette, eye patch.


This (https://si0.twimg.com/profile_images/1697024721/Chuck_Norris.jpg) :belkar:


If I recall, there's a feat somewhere that lets you collect gruesome trophies from your kills, and apply them as a form of 'intimidate' tool.

So, a Masterwork Tool of Intimidation might be a necklace, to which you add a single tooth from everything you kill (which would be Craft; you can just buy one pre-assembled for 50gp, and be lame). Or, perhaps, enormous, impractical pauldron spikes that you stick skulls on the end of.

Maybe it could be something that literally makes you act more intimidating. It could be, say, a doll that belonged to your little girl before she was murdered, so when you go into the tavern to shake down thugs for info, you bring out the doll, and things get ugly.

Okay. Pretty good ideas. Although, I think Chuck Norris would come under Divine Intervention (or at least a some sort of Divine bonus) wouldn't he?

[Slipperychicken]

And what exactly would a Masterwork Intimidation tool be?
I'm not meaning "explain Masterwork tools", I'm meaning what kind of item it would be? Would it be a mask? A facial tattoo? What?

[reposted for visibility]


Scary-looking weapon(s)

Visibly-displayed severed body parts/organs,

Flaming beard. Seriously, Blackbeard did it IRL, tying small ropes to his beard and lighting them on fire before a fight, making it look like he sets his beard on fire.
Cthulhu statuette

Eye patch.


It's not about the Intimidation bonus. It's about sending a message.

[Ashtagon]

Okay. Pretty good ideas. Although, I think Chuck Norris would come under Divine Intervention (or at least a some sort of Divine bonus) wouldn't he?

These ideas wouldn't actually intimidate people who regard those as ordinary things to do.

A good analogy might be modern firearm accessories. Bearded lefties think all those accessories are intimidating. Gun nuts know they are nothing more than barbie dolls for grown men (http://facesoftexas.com/ar15-barbie-doll-for-guys/), so they aren't intimidating, and they can't even figure why the bearded lefties want them banned.

Armour spikes, body-part trophies, and so on are just medieval gun accessories.

[Adindra]

And what exactly would a Masterwork Intimidation tool be?
I'm not meaning "explain Masterwork tools", I'm meaning what kind of item it would be? Would it be a mask? A facial tattoo? What?

my personal favorite is the slightly tacky but always wonderful warhammer 40k method of apply skulls till intimidating :smallamused:

[Malak'ai]

These ideas wouldn't actually intimidate people who regard those as ordinary things to do.

A good analogy might be modern firearm accessories. Bearded lefties think all those accessories are intimidating. Gun nuts know they are nothing more than barbie dolls for grown men (http://facesoftexas.com/ar15-barbie-doll-for-guys/), so they aren't intimidating, and they can't even figure why the bearded lefties want them banned.

Armour spikes, body-part trophies, and so on are just medieval gun accessories.

I'm not going to say your reasoning for this to be persuaded by personal belief, but I think you're over thinking this just a little.
Yes, I know in real life history that things like this were done as part of normal day life, but we're talking about a game here.
I'll grant that if you're dealing with a more "savage" version of a certain race, or one of the savage races as described in the MM's, then yeah, some of these would be redundant. But I wouldn't go so far as to call them "gun accessories for grown ups".

[Andezzar]

my personal favorite is the slightly tacky but always wonderful warhammer 40k method of apply skulls till intimidating :smallamused:If you want to go with ridiculous WH40K accoutrements, put a trophy rack on your armor. A boss pole might also work.

@circumstance bonus: yes it is circumstantial, but that does not mean that you may not create circumstances to get the bonus most often. Claiming to be wizard/big strong fighter, might not intimidate everyone, but providing evidence that you actually are one of the two will most likely make any intimidation attempt easier.

[Spiryt]

I'm not going to say your reasoning for this to be persuaded by personal belief, but I think you're over thinking this just a little.
Yes, I know in real life history that things like this were done as part of normal day life, but we're talking about a game here.
I'll grant that if you're dealing with a more "savage" version of a certain race, or one of the savage races as described in the MM's, then yeah, some of these would be redundant. But I wouldn't go so far as to call them "gun accessories for grown ups".

I think that general point that 'intimidating' hugely depends on : who, when, how, etc. is very valid one.

If someone approached some average 2000's accountant with body part trophy, he would indeed be freaked out, quite certainly.

While some 'medievalish' peasant who likes to wear rabbits foot and similar talismans, from the animals he regularly strangles and flays them to obtain meat, hide and all other stuff, it may be just a little unsettling.

Some isolated tribesman, who likes to eat defeated foes, may just say " Wow, nice head you have there. Don't have one quite as large in my collection".

And similarly, there's nothing intimidating about guns indeed, just like about other weapons, generally.

But when you have no gun, someone has a gun, and that someone has some ugly intents, from whatever reason, situation changes drastically - and he's more intimidating than if he had but a stick.

[TuggyNE]

Some isolated tribesman, who likes to eat defeated foes, may just say " Wow, nice head you have there. Don't have one quite as large in my collection".

For what it's worth, there are (at least in this world) very few cannibalistic tribes that are also headhunters, and vice versa. On the order of half a dozen or less, out of hundreds of either.

[Spiryt]

For what it's worth, there are (at least in this world) very few cannibalistic tribes that are also headhunters, and vice versa. On the order of half a dozen or less, out of hundreds of either.

Most of the tribes in D&D settings have, far a lot of more eccentric combinations of customs, so pretty everything can fly. :smallbiggrin:

[Cirrylius]

If I recall, there's a feat somewhere that lets you collect gruesome trophies from your kills, and apply them as a form of 'intimidate' tool.

IIRC, it provides an extrordinary bonus to fear saves, uses an item slot, and requires 5 ranks in Craft(Taxidermy). Been a while since I saw it, though, so don't quote me on that.

[ArcturusV]

Yeah, that's always the problem with masterwork tools of the generic variety. People want them for the bonuses but often I run into problems where players have a hard time defining them or telling me how they apply to the skill check they want to use.

Not that I'm opposed to Masterwork Tools for social skills. Heck, we all know in social situations a handy prop can make a big difference, charming that random stranger at an event, easing tensions during a negotiation, etc. But they also tend to be situational and not universal in their application.

As for the original post? A +9 is... okay. Not a hugely game breaking. As mentioned the Shaken Penalty isn't huge. It's telling at level 1 where a -2 can represent a decent shift in the odds of success and failure. But it loses impact quickly.

How important that is to your game depends on how you view your campaign, how long you want to remain at low levels, etc. The Character is likely always going to be able to intimidate. It's just the nature of skills. Until someone gets magical "I am immune" effects. Skill checks are just insanely easy to pump up, I find them one of the easiest things to optimize and boost. It's going to rocket up far more so than the Level Check is ever going to.

But that pumping goes both ways. The -2 is fixed, and isn't going to increase with level, and mostly become irrelevant at some point.

[Pesimismrocks]

IIRC, it provides an extrordinary bonus to fear saves, uses an item slot, and requires 5 ranks in Craft(Taxidermy). Been a while since I saw it, though, so don't quote me on that.

I know this feat, its in Player handbook 2. +2 intimidate vs their type & small morale bonus 1/day. Here's the feat on D&D tools (http://dndtools.eu/feats/player-handbook-ii--80/trophy-collector--2973/)

[Deophaun]

I'm not meaning "explain Masterwork tools", I'm meaning what kind of item it would be? Would it be a mask? A facial tattoo? What?
That's what most people don't seem to understand. There is no such thing as a "Master work tool of Skill." What you have is a masterwork item. It costs 50 gp. From there, the DM decides what, how, when, and if it bestows a +2 bonus to a skill check.

So, you could have a masterwork mask, and the DM could rule that it gives you a +2 bonus to intimidate against humanoids and monstrous humanoids weaker (fewer HD) than you. After all, is it reasonable for your mundane mask to intimidate a dragon, an aberration, or a bear? Probably not.

[Andezzar]

But then again the same masterwork mask could also provide a circumstance bonus to bluff or disguise checks.

[Deophaun]

Indeed it could. It could also provide a -2 penalty to spot checks. But the point is, suggestions about masterwork tools need to be specific, and they need to recognize the role of DM arbitration. The more you try to get out of an object, the less likely your DM is to let it through.

[Vaz]

9 Intimidate; needs to beat 1d20+HD+Wis.

HD+Wis on a First level cleric/Ardent/Wis based class with 16 Wisdom to keep things sane has an equal chance of getting 5-25.

Subtract 9 from that minimum, and you've got -4; there's another 16 chances, or 4 times that for you to fail. QED, you've a 1/5 chance of making that Intimidate Check.

If you add a Circumstance bonus, and the Synergy bonus, you've got +4, and a size increase (useful on a Crusader going for a Wall of Blades lockdown), it's +8 against Medium, +16 against Small, so you've got against Small Foes a +25; essentially, your target only has a 1/20 chance of passing, against a Medium, you have +17; your target would need to roll a 12 or higher to not be affected; in other words, a 60% chance of passing.

[CaladanMoonblad]

So... the original text in the SRD (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/skills/intimidate.htm).


Check
You can change another’s behavior with a successful check. Your Intimidate check is opposed by the target’s modified level check (1d20 + character level or Hit Dice + target’s Wisdom bonus [if any] + target’s modifiers on saves against fear). If you beat your target’s check result, you may treat the target as friendly, but only for the purpose of actions taken while it remains intimidated. (That is, the target retains its normal attitude, but will chat, advise, offer limited help, or advocate on your behalf while intimidated. See the Diplomacy skill, above, for additional details.) The effect lasts as long as the target remains in your presence, and for 1d6×10 minutes afterward. After this time, the target’s default attitude toward you shifts to unfriendly (or, if normally unfriendly, to hostile).

If you fail the check by 5 or more, the target provides you with incorrect or useless information, or otherwise frustrates your efforts.

Demoralize Opponent
You can also use Intimidate to weaken an opponent’s resolve in combat. To do so, make an Intimidate check opposed by the target’s modified level check (see above). If you win, the target becomes shaken for 1 round. A shaken character takes a -2 penalty on attack rolls, ability checks, and saving throws. You can intimidate only an opponent that you threaten in melee combat and that can see you.

So based on this, the Crusader in the OP can take a "10" and get a static 19 DC. According to d20 rules, said Crusader can use Intimidate in lieu of Diplomacy to achieve acquiesence from NPCs (or even other PCs). On even levels, the victim makes a character level check (so d20 +1) plus Wisdom bonus or bonuses vs. fear (such as a Paladin's Aura of Courage SQ at 3rd level, or recipients of Bless).

With a +9, said Crusader's victims at first level have a 15% chance of succeeding at level 1 (rolling 18, 19, or 20) using the rules. Provided that the OP continues to max out his skill points, this 85% success rate will remain static. If the OP can find 5 ranks for Bluff, they can get another +2 synergy bonus. Picking up "Persuasive" adds another +2, and getting Skill Focus can get another +3. So there is certainly room for improvement in terms of optimizing this skill.

However, a natural 20 will always save, so the success rate can never get above 95%, but additional bonuses will allow the Crusader to push around even higher level victims at that 95% success rate.

So to calculate the effect, on level Intimidate needs to be +11 at 1st level, and each additional +2 (such as suggested above) increases the level effected by 2. Using the above suggestions (5 ranks in bluff, persuasive, skill focus) then this would be +15 at level 1 (not feasible) but will hit levels 1-4 with a 95% success rate... so... at each additional level, the Crusader could intimidate a level 14 at 10th level at 95%.



As for the talk about "tools" for intimidation, that is a GM decision for circumstance only. The MW tool entry is likewise up to GM decision (so, possibly tools for Craft (shipbuilding) or Perform (Mime)- the black tights and makeup. So always check with your GM before setting apart 55 gp for undefined "tools."

The interaction skills (diplomacy, intimidate, bluff) are highly related to culture. As a GM, I would never allow a MW tool for such skills, because NOT having such tools is not noted as creating a -2 penalty for not having such tools (such as the Craft skill). Not having the right tools is problematic, which is the entire reason why a masterwork set of tools provides a +2 bonus. As a general rule, "You don't get something for nothing."

Cultural Example
So, imagine a fearsome mask used to create terror in a bronze age culture, such as the Aztecs. This works great so long as the people believe in the evil spirits that the mask represents. But the instant a Spanish conquistador laughs and bayonets the mask wearer is the instant that the mask no longer works as good. This is a circumstance bonus, not a static tool bonus. It is not a tool, the mask is a costume piece that has very limited effects based on the audience in question.

[Morbis Meh]

However, a natural 20 will always save, so the success rate can never get above 95%, but additional bonuses will allow the Crusader to push around even higher level victims at that 95% success rate.


Actually this is incorrect, this is not a will save it is a modified character level check... so a natural 20 is not an autosave since there is a distinct difference between a will save and a modified character level check. You may house rule it otherwise but that would be a house rule :smallsmile:

[CaladanMoonblad]

Actually this is incorrect, this is not a will save it is a modified character level check... so a natural 20 is not an autosave since there is a distinct difference between a will save and a modified character level check. You may house rule it otherwise but that would be a house rule :smallsmile:

Thanks for the clarification.

My group nerfs Intimidate by allowing Will save instead of Wisdom modifier. So natural 20 was stuck as an end all be all since the SRD's mechanic apes a saving throw.

I was trying to answer the OP's question, since most of what is above... failed to stay on topic.

[Andezzar]

My group nerfs Intimidate by allowing Will save instead of Wisdom modifier. So natural 20 was stuck as an end all be all since the SRD's mechanic apes a saving throw.While this caps the success probability at 95% I would not necessarily call it a nerf. The will save advances a lot slower than the modified character level check. So while you cannot autosucceed, success is more likely for all but the most optimized characters:
The intimidator rolls (assuming maxed skill ranks): D20+character level +3+CHA
the intimadatee rolls: D20+character level+WIS+(base will save +WIS +modifier vs fear.)
As soon as the part in parenthesis is greater than 3 the intimitatee pulls ahead. So even to keep up, the intimadator needs bonuses from other sources.

[BowStreetRunner]

So my crusader has 9 points in intimidate skill (racial , skill points, nymph kiss, cha bonus)

How good is that at level 1,and for carrying it onwards when maxed skill points?

Okay, assuming this is the Hellbred mentioned in your other thread

Racial: +2 to intimidate checks
Skill points: 4 ranks at 1st level
Nymph's kiss: +2 to Charisma-based skill checks
Charisma: since you stated 9 points, I assume this means you have a 12 in Charisma and are getting a +1.

By second level you should be able to add a +2 synergy from 5 ranks in Bluff. So you will jump from +9 to +12 right there. The masterwork tool is something you should discuss with your DM of course. Looking into an item that can enlarge you (i.e. belt of growth), a Charisma boosting item (i.e. cloak of charisma), or even an intimidate-boosting item (i.e. amulet of wordtwisting) should allow you to bring this up even more.


...the Crusader in the OP can take a "10" and get a static 19 DC.
Just to be clear, for estimating your intimidate ability this is fine, but don't expect to be taking 10 very often with this skill. Since you cannot take 10 when threatened, and you can only demoralize an opponent you threaten, then in many cases they will also threaten you at the same time. (A reach weapon will help here, but you will still have to roll when they get inside your reach or have a reach weapon of their own.)

[Slipperychicken]

These ideas wouldn't actually intimidate people who regard those as ordinary things to do.


Player: "Mr. DM sir? Are flaming beards sufficiently commonplace in the setting that they don't grant a bonus to Intimidate checks?"

DM: "Yes, yes they are. Each town has at least 1d4 Flamebeard warriors"

Player: "What about severed heads?"

DM: "Those are commonplace too. Most families have shrunken heads as heirlooms."

Player: "Otherworldly Cthulhu statuettes?"

DM: "Cthulhu is the patron deity."

Player: "Spiked armor like Sauron wore?"

DM: "Old fashioned"


Best campaign setting ever.

[Flickerdart]

Make-up to draw large frowny eyebrows on your face is the be-all end-all masterwork took of Intimidate.

[Joe the Rat]

And what exactly would a Masterwork Intimidation tool be?
I'm not meaning "explain Masterwork tools", I'm meaning what kind of item it would be? Would it be a mask? A facial tattoo? What?

A codpiece. Preferably The Black Russian or The Cuttlefish of Cthulhu.

Each would also give circumstantial bonuses for Bluff, or Perform (Ventriloquism), respectively.

[CaladanMoonblad]

While this caps the success probability at 95% I would not necessarily call it a nerf. The will save advances a lot slower than the modified character level check. So while you cannot autosucceed, success is more likely for all but the most optimized characters:
The intimidator rolls (assuming maxed skill ranks): D20+character level +3+CHA
the intimadatee rolls: D20+character level+WIS+(base will save +WIS +modifier vs fear.)
As soon as the part in parenthesis is greater than 3 the intimitatee pulls ahead. So even to keep up, the intimadator needs bonuses from other sources.

Not exactly so; we keep the character level mechanic to save and keep the Intimidate skill exactly as written, but use a Will Save INSTEAD of just the wisdom modifier (so the higher the level, the better the Will saving throw, in addition to the obvious 1:1 level bonus). This also allows for a natural 20 for us to save, since a Natural 20 is an auto-success since Intimidate is a skill. We thought it was unfair that a natural 20 couldn't beat a natural 20.

This change was made in our group to nerf Intimidate because it seemed ludicrous to be able to Intimidate Darth Vader at level 5. Part of the novelty of a d20 Star Wars campaign is to meet or even interact with iconic characters (such as IG-88 or Greedo before he gets zapped in the cantina- in one session, my players were IN the cantina and witnessed a crazy old man take off the arm of an Aqualish, because my players had done their best to make the alien cranky with laxatives as part of an ongoing revenge job against escaped felons).

At a certain point, in our figuring, no one is going to intimidate anyone else; "We're all professionals here, so stop the rooster strut and let's party."

We also make sure to remember any ad hoc Reputation bonuses to interaction rolls. This makes "great deeds" worthwhile. A growl from Conan the Barbarian is much more intimidating than a growl from some nameless lout with tattoos and bones in their natty hair.



...
Just to be clear, for estimating your intimidate ability this is fine, but don't expect to be taking 10 very often with this skill. Since you cannot take 10 when threatened, and you can only demoralize an opponent you threaten, then in many cases they will also threaten you at the same time. (A reach weapon will help here, but you will still have to roll when they get inside your reach or have a reach weapon of their own.)

I was talking about Intimidate as its primary role, as an interaction skill. Most people in this thread only seem to be valuing Intimidate for the debuff during combat; but it is one of the 3 Face skills (with Bluff and Diplomacy rounding out the rest). It is the crowbar which will make enemies 1d6x10 minutes later as the poor sod gets a grip on their deflated ego and pumps it back up, blaming the person who backed them down.

Prior to combat, you can Take 10 all the time, provided you have the 1 min minimum that the skill dictates for shifting someone else's demeanor. Once combat ensues, and a person wants to use Intimidate for its debuffing effect, of course it's a required roll.

[Adindra]

Make-up to draw large frowny eyebrows on your face is the be-all end-all masterwork took of Intimidate.



i'm going to have to steal this on my pathfinder barbarian :smalltongue:

[Xervous]

If you really want to be scary...

One level dip of marshal to double your charisma bonus's contribution to intimidate. Along with the ability to do other things when you aren't making people cower for CDGs

[TuggyNE]

9 Intimidate; needs to beat 1d20+HD+Wis.

HD+Wis on a First level cleric/Ardent/Wis based class with 16 Wisdom to keep things sane has an equal chance of getting 5-25.

Subtract 9 from that minimum, and you've got -4; there's another 16 chances, or 4 times that for you to fail. QED, you've a 1/5 chance of making that Intimidate Check.

If you add a Circumstance bonus, and the Synergy bonus, you've got +4, and a size increase (useful on a Crusader going for a Wall of Blades lockdown), it's +8 against Medium, +16 against Small, so you've got against Small Foes a +25; essentially, your target only has a 1/20 chance of passing, against a Medium, you have +17; your target would need to roll a 12 or higher to not be affected; in other words, a 60% chance of passing.

These calculations aren't entirely correct, since it's an opposed roll, not a single roll against a static DC. Here's some better ones (http://anydice.com/program/2364). Assuming you get synergy bonuses by level 2 and +2 circumstance by level 4, you have a 73.75% chance at level 1, rising to 80.5% and 86.25%; large size boosts these to 86.25%, 91%, and 94.75% respectively. (The target doesn't take a penalty on their opposed rolls, because they are not making an Intimidate check.)