Level 4 encounter (is it too much?)

[Musco]

My party consists of:

1 Dwarf Cleric;
1 Goliath Warden;
1 Human Wizard;
1 Drow Rogue;
1 Shifter Avenger;
1 Goblin Companion (it's been following them for a while, so I'm assuming it'll be present for the fight)

They're all 4th level besides the Goblin, which is 1st level. They're well-built and have decent gear for their level, I think most of them have magic weapons/implements already (some even +2), about half of them have magic armor, they have 2 guys with really high AC and only 1 with about average AC.

Small backstory:

The Drow's parents own a tavern/inn in Waterdeep, and a BBEG they just killed (they were after him from 1st to 3rd) had a spy infiltrated in a city they were in, a female Elf. Turns out she was not only working for him, but in love with him, and the guy died horribly, so ressurrection is out of the table for her. After finding out they killed him, she's going to flip out and launch herself into a suicidal revenge plan: she cares about nothing anymore besides making them suffer.

The drow, when they met before (and they thought she was friendly), let slip about the inn, so it's going to be her first target (she'll boast a little about her revenge, but won't stick around for the actual fight - this fight is actually just going to set the plot moving forward and present them with some options to pursue, due to tie-ins with recent info they gathered and the composition of the assault party).

They're going back to town to rest, and she's going to ambush them while also setting fire to the inn, and I want to make it kind of an "epic" encounter, soooo... here's the setup:

4 Brutes (2 blocking the door, 1 loose on the lobby, 1 climbing/blocking the stairs
7 Soldiers
4 Skirmishers
1 Rampaging Inferno (basically, I made the fire itself into an "enemy"/skill challenge, so as to best grasp the mechanics of setting the build on fire and fighting in it while it burns).

I intend to fluff the monsters so they can do different things (like some skirmishers being able to "jump" from the second floor to the lobby or vault over the tables), but basically, they'll all be 4th level as well.

There're also 21 unarmed civilians in the place (what to do about them is up to them, really, and I expect some will die horribly trying to escape the building).

To balance this at least a little, I also included 7 armed NPCs, 5 of which will be already engaged with the hostiles. There are also 2 more armed NPCs that could/should join the action soon enough, depending on how everything plays out.

I expect them to survive, maybe even win, but not before the whole place burns down (my main goal is to mainly burn down the place, so they don't really HAVE to win the fight, but I'm also not going to simply burn it down without giving them a fighting chance).

So I guess my question is:

How likely are they to win/survive this without casualties to the PCs?

I'm ok with PCs dying, but since it's early on the Campaign and ressurrections are still kinda steep and troublesome, I'd rather it was not too much of a deathtrap (but if someone dies due to poor luck or bad decisions, I'm ok with it).

[Mando Knight]

You have a standard sized party with a relatively weak companion, against two to three times the standard number of opponents. And nearly half of them are Soldiers, which should be used sparingly. The friendly NPCs help some, however.

How do you define "high AC," can you give us some numbers?

[allonym]

Firstly - lots of enemy soldiers will be intensely frustrating. Lots of attacks will miss, and the soldiers won't be doing much damage, so it will be a drawn-out slog.

Secondly - you're balancing it with NPCs? Will they also be fighting? If so, expect combat to take years, while you roll for 15/16 enemies and up to 7 allied NPCs (plus whatever that goblin is doing). Consider having the NPCs tie up the bad guys and simply subtract them on a one-to-one basis, or whatever ratio you want. Having a huge fight mechanically represented might seem cool on paper but there's nothing epic about waiting an hour for your next turn while the DM rolls against the DM. The added advantage of doing this is you can easily modulate the difficulty on the fly (Players walking over them, a couple of enemies, slightly banged-up, manage to slay their opponents and join in the fray - or an NPC if they are having a hard time of it instead) and gives the players the option of interesting tactical decisions if you let them (Maybe you could let them instruct a couple of NPCs to deal with the rampaging brute, freeing them from having to do so themselves and letting them stay together - but that means that two other enemies which would have otherwise been tied up engage the players instead. Etc.)

[Ashdate]

I'd recommend cutting your "fight" into two smaller parts, and simply offer no chance to rest between then (or if the first fight does a number on them, allow them the chance to spend one or two healing surges).

Just make sure the PCs start in a basement so they can't just jump out of a window :)

[Musco]

Yes, the idea of the NPCs is to "tie them up" in combat and remove a few of the soldiers (and probably 1 of the brutes) from the combat without dice-rolling at all (which also let me do it whenever I feel like it, like, say, AFTER the building is severely burned already).

Also, I'm well aware of the numbers, but the reasoning for such a huge number of opponents (and their type) is I kind of want to see if they take the hint and run, and I want to see how they fare with the unarmed civilians and other NPCs as well.

As for high ACs, there are 2 of them that are bordering or over 25, if I recall correctly.

The assualt party is a regiment of Duergar, which is why I went with mostly heavy-armored foes.

[Mando Knight]

...If I'm remembering the calculations correctly, 25 should be the absolute highest AC you could have at level 4 if you have +2 items: 10 +9 (Layered Plate) +2 (Enhancement) +2 (½ level) +2 (Heavy Shield).

...What did you give them, and are they calculating their defenses correctly?

[Ashdate]

The assualt party is a regiment of Duergar

Beard Quills!

[allonym]

I kind of want to see if they take the hint and run

Yeah, this is the problem. This never works. The only way to make players flee when you want them to is to present them with absolutely insurmountable odds (or use fiat). Otherwise, you run the obvious risk of them failing to take the hint (because why would they?), seeing you as simply coming up with an unfair encounter and, if you try to explain yourself, creating the resentment that you deliberately set them up to lose.

[Epinephrine]

There is an encounter in the scales of war campaign (Beyond the Mottled Tower, Dungeon 163) that has a fire in an inn with lots of civilians, run as a sort of skill challenge, you may want to look at that for inspiration. My players loved that challenge and didn't feel like it was actually a skill challenge when it was going on - more what a skill challenge should actually be. If you have large numbers of enemies engaged with NPCs, the goal could just be to get innocents clear, skill challenge-type stuff to rescue them, collapse burning stairs to trap enemies, etc. Moving about may provoke OAs from enemies, but it could be clear from the description etc. that the goal is to get people out, and try to allow the "good" guys to get out, too. Making it less about combat, and more about using your powers/skills in a turn-by turn way could be fun.

[Musco]

YES! This is what I want it to feel like, I'll look into it.

The way I see it (and want it to feel like), I'm basically making a bunch of things at once:

a) Pitting them against terrible odds (but still winnable, specially with NPCs engaging the foes so they don't pile on the PCs);
b) Giving them a chance to think strategy instead of think smackegy, so they can, for instance, avoid combat altogether and just get out;
c) Testing their heroic morale (with the unarmed civilians inside, and specially with the rooms on the second floor, which might or might not be empty already);
d) Giving them the opportunity to realize that they are actually great heroes already (if they start to command the NPCs, I fully intend for them to obey their commands, making them all into "generals" for the encounter);
e) Seeing how they fare against a weird situation, where they have to assess which foes are enemies and which are not (they don't actually know any of them, so they see two guys engaged, they are the ones that have to figure out which one to help, if any at all);
f) Making a different sort of Skill Challenge, mixed with combat (in which they can also direct the NPCs to help, like putting out parts of the fire to keep a clear escape path);
g) Having a different style of combat, with lots of movement possibilities and strategies (combat split between two floors, tables on the lobby, doors and windows, multiple rooms, etc.).

And I want to have all of this without it being a deathtrap (meaning, they can't actually do anything about any of the stuff happening).

Like I said earlier, I'm well aware of the numbers, and I know the opponents will be tough, but this is by design, I don't want them to solve such a puzzling scenario by "piling on damage and dropping 65% of the enemies in 4-5 turns". I want this battle to last the better part of our day when we have it (they are ok with this if a battle is memorable enough, our last 3-stage Boss Battle took almost 3 hours while they had to reevaluate their strategy at each stage change), so time is not really an issue (and as I said earlier, I'm not using the time to "solo-play", NPCs and Foes will become engaged without die rolling at all), I just wat them to HAVE all those options, so I don't want it to come out as "there are too many foes, you HAVE to run" nor "it's just another combat encounter, let's go massacre them".

PS: As for the ACs, I don't have their sheest on me, so I assume they are under 25, from what has been said, but I know at least 2 of them are OVER 21-22. The Warden has magic armor, a large shield and a good ability score bonus, so he should be at 23-25. The Avenger stacked two feats for unarmored bonuses (the one that raises the Avenger's class bonus and one from PHB 3, Unarmored Agility or something?, that stacks due to the Avenger's bonus having no type) and also has a good ability score, so even wearing no armor, he's at about 22-24 as well. They should not be that easy to hit, and the Avenger's Overwhelming Strike should help them clear an escape path for the civilians easily, since he can afford to jump into melee without taking too much punishment. Should one of the NPCs, at least, be a Cleric? So I can throw them a bone and have a couple extra heals if needed?

[Mando Knight]

Unarmored Agility is strong at that level, yes, but it'll taper off a bit at Paragon since it is a Feat bonus, so you shouldn't need to fret. 22-24 sounds about right for an AC optimizer without plate at 4th level.

Have clearly unarmed, unarmored civilians in the group, blocked from the exit by the brutes at the door. At the beginning of the encounter, pass this note to anyone with 15 or higher passive Insight (if the Cleric and Avenger don't meet this, hit them for me. Even if the Cleric is a Strength build, Wis is too good to pass up for a Cleric, and Insight is a good skill):
The fire is quickly spreading. The Duergar seem to be trying to keep everyone inside... you're pretty sure that stopping to fight them is exactly what they want you to do.
And this one to the Wizard and Warden (and anyone else with trained Nature or Dungeoneering, or at least 16 Int):
Judging by the type of wood the inn is made of and the current spread of the fire, you'll only have around X rounds/minutes to get out before the fire burns down the inn... and you with it.
That should give them an idea of the parameters for the fight.

[Musco]

LOL, thanks for the help and ideas! And yes, they meet those skill requirements. I'm still torn a bit on the first note, I don't want the Duergar to be suicidal, more like mesmerized, because the idea was to get in, burn the place down and kill the group, and get out. Thing is, the Drow advertised the place for the Elf Spy as a Tavern, he never mentioned the Inn part, so they didn't quite expect the armed NPCs and the large number of unarmed civilians inside. The second note I had already thought of, though. It's even in their notes about the place already, that they used a form of dry wood that presents a bigger danger of burning, but it's a reasonable choice for building on a budget, as it's really sturdy and don't require a lot of maintenance, so most small businesses inside larger (and better protected) cities will be made of those at first.

[BlckDv]

A possible way I'd run a scenario like this would be to have a paired down initial combat, aim for maybe an XP budget of 6th-8th level, and then have an elaborate skill challenge, with skills keyed to "rescue civilians" "help NPCs fight NPCs" and "Put out fire" set it so that each goal required a minimum number of successes with a specific subset of the available skill checks (So to win you need successes of each type not just X total).

I'd also have a mechanic that linked the two; such as a failure on the skill challenge having a combat impact (miss a save civilians and your allies grant CA for a round as they have to avoid hitting civilians, fail on the fire causes some splash fire damage, failure on the help NPCs might spawn an extra Minion into the PC fight as an enemy gets loose... if you like tougher scenarios have not trying one of the categories create the fail effect but not count as a failure. If they fail the Skill Challenge outright, have it start a timer for the Inn burns down in X more rounds, and add a couple more non-minions to the fight as they finish off the NPC allies... how many civilians get out depends on how many successes they had earned.