A wild theory about Belkar's death prophecy

[Adeptus]

Ever since the world within the rift was revealed, I've been expecting the Order to end up there eventually. This is a Chekhov's gun that simply must be fired eventually.

Belkar's death prophecy was "isn't long for this world (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0572.html)", and of course the earlier ones about his IRA and savouring his next birthday cake (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0329.html).

Anyway. It's pretty clear that the Oracle (and by extension the magical prophetic senses of Tiamat) are saying Belkar is going to die.

I got to thinking about the parallels with the Order of the Scribble though. Kraagor is seen to fall in the sealing of a rift. He is holding the Snarl at bay, and the sealing spell is cast without him being "in the clear". The Snarl didn't kill Kraagor, he was lost because of the spell.

What I think happened is that Kraagor was sucked through the rift. It is perfectly possible that he is still alive on the other hand. Everybody thinks he is dead, and with good reason, but he was actually lost through a rift.

The Oracle is divinely infallible during his trance, at the very least, but divine infallibility is limited if the god doesn't know, or can't know. Nobody aside from Blackwing and Varsuuvius know about the planet behind the rifts.

I think Belkar will be sucked through, and the Oracle and everybody else thought that means he is dead. Later in the comic, I expect the rest of the Order to follow him, whether by accident or by design.

I think the "Not long for this world" is a a clue. It will be interesting seeing if I'm even close with this.

[Mollez]

Don't forget "Belkar will draw his last breath--ever--before the end of the year. (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0572.html)"

[thereaper]

Yes, but the Oracle's information is limited by what his god knows. So, theoretically, he could be wrong.

Will he be wrong? Of course not. His entire purpose as a character is foreshadowing. The reason for the prophecy is to prepare us (the readers) for Belkar's death.

[Adeptus]

@thereaper: We shall see. I suspect the Giant is being more complex than that.

Whichever way things play out, I expect it to be satisfying. Rich is a brilliant storyteller.

[WindStruck]

Anything the oracle could say implying Belkar's death could just flat out be wrong. Because he doesn't know he's wrong and really thinks Belkar would be dead. Or on the other hand, my personal theory was that the oracle was purposely lying (fancy green glow or not) in hopes of Roy getting careless and bringing about Belkar's death. Hey, because he was gonna die anyway, right? No, wait, that's only what the oracle said.

[Vinsfeld]

When Blackwing saw the other world, he saw it on space. So if Kraagor had been sucked into the other universe, he would have been floating in space. Probably dead, because, you know, vacuum and stuff.

[Sunken Valley]

I think the scribble dwarf is still alive because rich said the scribbles story had to be told in comic. No other scribbler lives who can do so (if Xykon has her diary Serini may be dead

[thereaper]

A 20th level fighter can swim in lava.

Are you really going to assume that a silly thing like a vacuum would stop Kraggor?

[Adeptus]

When Blackwing saw the other world, he saw it on space. So if Kraagor had been sucked into the other universe, he would have been floating in space. Probably dead, because, you know, vacuum and stuff.
I don't think the rift works like a pane of armoured glass between the OotS world and the vacuum of space. If you're sucked through, who knows where you'll end up. It's an epic / divine level magical effect. I think that view is more like what you would see in a crystal ball, not through a viewport.

I'm also not very familiar with the spelljammer stuff, but is there a vacuum in the D&D universe? It's something we humans only found out about pretty recently. The older theory was luminous aether, no idea if you were supposed to be able to breath in it... I think so.

[Vinsfeld]

I'm also not very familiar with the spelljammer stuff, but is there a vacuum in the D&D universe? It's something we humans only found out about pretty recently. The older theory was luminous aether, no idea if you were supposed to be able to breath in it... I think so.

It's not so recent. I mean, when D&D was created, the luminous ether theory had already gone down. The first experiment that disproved the luminous ether was the Michelson-Morley experiment, around 1890. And repeated over and over from 1900 - 1920.

[Math_Mage]

Belkar will become an undead vampire zombie with no sense of taste, sucked through the Rift to the planet-within-the-planet because Roy was manipulated by the Oracle's lies to let Belkar sacrifice himself blowing up Girard's Gate.
Did I cover all the epileptic trees?

[Adeptus]

It's not so recent. I mean, when D&D was created, the luminous ether theory had already gone down. The first experiment that disproved the luminous ether was the Michelson-Morley experiment, around 1890. And repeated over and over from 1900 - 1920.
Lol, no obviously I didn't mean that the makers of D&D really thought the world worked like that :D

But it's a fantasy multiverse, with different physical laws. Vacuum of space is not something you an automatically assume.

Case in point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spelljammer#Gravity_and_Air

[SoC175]

The Oracle is divinely infallible during his trance, at the very least, but divine infallibility is limited if the god doesn't know, or can't know. Nobody aside from Blackwing and Varsuuvius know about the planet behind the rifts.
Actually we don't know whether or not the pantheons know about the planet being the rifts. We only know that they didn't tell their mortal followers

[veti]

Will he be wrong? Of course not. His entire purpose as a character is foreshadowing. The reason for the prophecy is to prepare us (the readers) for Belkar's death.

If that was the reason for the prophecy, then why was Durkon's death-prophecy so much lower key?

I think the reason for the prophecy, like most prophecies, was to mislead people. Everyone, and I mean everyone, on this board wrote off Belkar when 870 (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0870.html) came out - because of the prophecy. At the time, not even the most ardent tinfoil-hatter predicted "Durkon will sacrifice himself to save Belkar".

[Vinsfeld]

Lol, no obviously I didn't mean that the makers of D&D really thought the world worked like that :D

But it's a fantasy multiverse, with different physical laws. Vacuum of space is not something you an automatically assume.

Case in point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spelljammer#Gravity_and_Air

Cool. I don't know very much about Spelljammer. I've never played it.

[Aleolus]

A 20th level fighter can swim in lava.

Are you really going to assume that a silly thing like a vacuum would stop Kraggor?

that is because lava kills you through hit point damage, something fighters have an abundance of. a vacuum kills you through suffocation, which is reliant on Fort saves. Yes, a fighter can succeed on a large number of those, but it only takes one roll of a 1 to die

[VeisuItaTyhjyys]

It only takes one Steadfast Determination not to.

[Amphiox]

From the point of view of narrative mechanics, it seems unlikely that the Oracle would be wrong.

The whole point of having an Oracle character in a story is for the Oracle's predictions to be sure to be true. The dramatic tension is all in seeing how the prophecies come true and how in so doing they might subvert expectations.

But to simply allow for the possibility that the Oracle could just be wrong destroys all that dramatic tension. It might as well have been some random dude drunk in a bar making predictions in that case.

[MrBanana]

It only takes one Steadfast Determination not to.

So one feat (and a lot of FORT) and you're Neo from The Matrix, swimming in lava and breathing in space? Badass.

[Math_Mage]

So one feat (and a lot of FORT) and you're Neo from The Matrix, swimming in lava and breathing in space? Badass.

Suffocation requires a Constitution check that scales per round (from 10). I don't know what the rules are on preventing the blood from boiling out of one's body, but I imagine the DC is a good deal higher.

[Adeptus]

But to simply allow for the possibility that the Oracle could just be wrong destroys all that dramatic tension. It might as well have been some random dude drunk in a bar making predictions in that case.
For me it's the complete opposite.

Unfailingly accurate, deterministic predictions are extremely boring.

[veti]

Suffocation requires a Constitution check that scales per round (from 10). I don't know what the rules are on preventing the blood from boiling out of one's body, but I imagine the DC is a good deal higher.

Just FYI: NASA reckons (http://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/ask_astro/answers/970603.html) that an unprotected human body can survive for "perhaps one or two minutes" in a vacuum without suffering permanent damage.


If you don't try to hold your breath, exposure to space for half a minute or so is unlikely to produce permanent injury. Holding your breath is likely to damage your lungs, something scuba divers have to watch out for when ascending, and you'll have eardrum trouble if your Eustachian tubes are badly plugged up, but theory predicts -- and animal experiments confirm -- that otherwise, exposure to vacuum causes no immediate injury. You do not explode. Your blood does not boil. You do not freeze. You do not instantly lose consciousness.

I suggest you read the whole thing, then decide how you'd translate that into saving throws and hit point loss. As I read it - if you could come up with some way of breathing (so your mouth, throat and lungs aren't exposed to vacuum, even if the rest of you is), you may be able to survive quite a long time.

[Porthos]

Yes, but the Oracle's information is limited by what his god knows.

The Oracle's god has access to future books? :smalleek: :smalleek:

Man, I'd be pissed off if I was one of the dragons who got blasted with Familicide and it turned out that Tiamat already knew about it and did nothing to stop it. :smallannoyed:

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NOTE:::: The Oracle mentions that he can read futute compliation books in this strip. (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0330.html) :smallwink:

[Flame of Anor]

I think the scribble dwarf is still alive because rich said the scribbles story had to be told in comic. No other scribbler lives who can do so (if Xykon has her diary Serini may be dead

Dorukan and Lirian are both trapped in Xykon's gem. I don't think it's implausible that the Order might get their hands on that. Surely it will have some plot importance.

[Ghost Nappa]

Man, I'd be pissed off if I was one of the dragons who got blasted with Familicide and it turned out that Tiamat already knew about it and did nothing to stop it. :smallannoyed:

They didn't ask.

Also, it means that everything the Oracle says it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Technically speaking, the Oracle did NOT say Belkar would die. Only that he would "breathe his last" and "was not long for this world." Turning him into a Lich and throwing him into the Rift, as Math_Mage similarly suggested, fulfills the criteria without necessarily killing Belkar.

[Throknor]

For me it's the complete opposite.

Unfailingly accurate, deterministic predictions are extremely boring.

I just stopped by the Oracle and he had a message: Adeptus will be bored before the comic comes to an end.

The point is it will be true, it's whether it's how we expect that is the interesting part. An Oracle that is accurate six out of seven times is not interesting, just ridiculous.

[Porthos]

Also, it means that everything the Oracle says it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Well, in regards to prophecy that regards himself, sure.

To know the future absolutely, is to yadda yadda.

Personally, and I've said this before and I'll say it again, the Oracle is like Doctor Manhattan in that he is a puppet who can see his strings. But unlike Doctor Manhattan this puppet is exceedingly sarcastic about it all. :smallbiggrin:

[hoff]

Again, the Oracle has all strips yet to be written in his possession, that is how he knows the future. It has nothing to do with Tiamat.

[balladfen]

Technically speaking, the Oracle did NOT say Belkar would die. Only that he would "breathe his last" and "was not long for this world."
I see this a lot, but there's a problem with the idea that the exact wording matters. According to http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0572.html, Belkar not being long for the world and breathing his last breath ever is the same thing as not needing to fund his IRA and needing to savor his next birthday cake.

In other words, the statements:
"Belkar Bitterleaf is not long for this world."
"Belkar Bitterleaf will breath his last breath within one year."
"Belkar Bitterleaf should enjoy his next birthday cake."
and
"Belkar Bitterleaf does not need to fund his IRA."
all mean the same thing. They are not four distinct prophecies. If they were, it could mean that Belkar will soon enter another world, become a deathknight, and inherit billions of gold from his obscenely wealthy Uncle Samwise. But for the four to be, as the Oracle says, functionally equivalent, they have to all mean one thing. There is really only one thing that all four imply, and that thing is that Belkar Bitterleaf will die.

Now, if all four were separate prophecies, then I'm sure Rich would write something insanely cool that made us go "Oh, so that's what the prophecy meant!" without Belkar dying. But they're apparently not, so Belkar Bitterleaf will die.

Does that make the comic boring? Does that eliminate all tension? No, of course not, because Rich has proven he can still shock us even when we technically know what's coming. So we'll be amazed even when Belkar Bitterleaf dies.

Personally, I hate this. Belkar is my favorite character, and I want him to be in every strip forever. I think it'll be cool if Rich lets Belkar live while making this make sense, even if I don't believe it'll happen. But that doesn't mean I'm not going to enjoy finding out how Belkar Bitterleaf dies.

[ti'esar]

I've got a really wild theory about Belkar's death prophecy:

He's going to die.

[Manga Shoggoth]

Ever since the world within the rift was revealed, I've been expecting the Order to end up there eventually. This is a Chekhov's gun that simply must be fired eventually.

...

I got to thinking about the parallels with the Order of the Scribble though. Kraagor is seen to fall in the sealing of a rift. He is holding the Snarl at bay, and the sealing spell is cast without him being "in the clear". The Snarl didn't kill Kraagor, he was lost because of the spell.

What I think happened is that Kraagor was sucked through the rift. It is perfectly possible that he is still alive on the other hand. Everybody thinks he is dead, and with good reason, but he was actually lost through a rift.


Actually - if true - this would also explain what happened to Soon's wife. Soon might think her soul was destroyed because she was still alive and not a candidiate for any form of raise spell.

[VeisuItaTyhjyys]

So one feat (and a lot of FORT) and you're Neo from The Matrix, swimming in lava and breathing in space? Badass.

Plus you get to use your constitution score for will saves, which is pretty neat.

[RadagastTheBrow]

Belkar will fall into the Rift, out of sight of the Prophecy and thereby fulfilling it... and then die of falling damage upon landing on the Hidden Planet.

Alternatively, he'll die in an anticlimactic manner off-panel... after the comic's over. D&D campaigns tend to take relatively short in-game times. PC's are kinda like Terminators- they don't rest unless it's to recover spells, they don't stop until they've fulfilled whatever off-rails goal they have in their heads, and they aren't limited to adventuring on weekends and getting back to their Profession on Mondays. At the same time, we don't see all the time that goes by off-screen with travel, so Rich can maintain suspense regarding the Belkster simply by not telling us what day of the year it is.

[Newwby]

Anything the oracle could say implying Belkar's death could just flat out be wrong. Because he doesn't know he's wrong and really thinks Belkar would be dead. Or on the other hand, my personal theory was that the oracle was purposely lying (fancy green glow or not) in hopes of Roy getting careless and bringing about Belkar's death. Hey, because he was gonna die anyway, right? No, wait, that's only what the oracle said.

I like the idea that the Oracle has his own agenda. It seems weird that someone with that much power would be content just to sit in a valley and make money from curious chumps. Maybe the oracle is working with or through someone else also?

[Kish]

Anything the oracle could say implying Belkar's death could just flat out be wrong. Because he doesn't know he's wrong and really thinks Belkar would be dead. Or on the other hand, my personal theory was that the oracle was purposely lying (fancy green glow or not) in hopes of Roy getting careless and bringing about Belkar's death. Hey, because he was gonna die anyway, right? No, wait, that's only what the oracle said.
Because the Oracle would have no way of knowing that such a ploy would not work?

[Finn Solomon]

I do like this theory. The addendum about Soon's wife also possibly surviving and meeting with Belkar is too good not to speculate on. This would mean we'll get to see Blackwing's mysterious planet more thoroughly, although I pray for its inhabitants if they have no defences against the Belkster.

[allenw]

But it's a fantasy multiverse, with different physical laws. Vacuum of space is not something you an automatically assume.

Case in point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spelljammer#Gravity_and_Air

As is implied by your link, in Spelljammer, interplanetary space *is* a vacuum. It's just that all objects carry their own mini-atmosphere with them. I believe you *could* expose yourself to vacuum in Spelljammer if you tried hard enough, though magic would probably be required.

[Adeptus]

I suggest you read the whole thing, then decide how you'd translate that into saving throws and hit point loss. As I read it - if you could come up with some way of breathing (so your mouth, throat and lungs aren't exposed to vacuum, even if the rest of you is), you may be able to survive quite a long time.
Unless there is something like a body stocking, the loss of blood pressure drops the human into unconsciousness in a few seconds. The window of action during a catastrophic decompression is very short.

[hamishspence]

This epic spell

http://www.d20srd.org/srd/epic/spells/nailedToTheSky.htm

sets "vacuum damage" at 1d4 pts per round when a person is in orbit- though it also has one take either 2d6 heat damage or 2d6 cold damage.

[Adeptus]

I just stopped by the Oracle and he had a message: Adeptus will be bored before the comic comes to an end.

The point is it will be true, it's whether it's how we expect that is the interesting part. An Oracle that is accurate six out of seven times is not interesting, just ridiculous.
There are several valid ways for an oracle to be wrong.

a) The oracle misinterpreted what was seen.

b) The prophecy would have been true, but something very out of the ordinary, and impossible to foresee happened. An outside-of-context problem.

We'll see though. I did warn in the topic that it's a wild theory.

[Snapdragon]

Belkar's death may be more metaphoric than literal. Shortly after he killed the Oracle, he was very sick, perhaps even near death. He had an extended conversation with a hallucination of Shojo/the ghost of Shojo and returned to life a different person. The Belkar that was, was no more and the prophecy fulfilled, from a certain point of view.
606 : panels 3 and 4

Also see 610; panel 3 implies mentoring similar to the kind Roy recieved from his grandfather in the afterlife.

[David Argall]

There are several valid ways for an oracle to be wrong.

a) The oracle misinterpreted what was seen.

b) The prophecy would have been true, but something very out of the ordinary, and impossible to foresee happened. An outside-of-context problem.

We'll see though. I did warn in the topic that it's a wild theory.

A] Our oracle is not misinterpreting anything he has foreseen. He may not tell us the full truth in the clearest way, but he does not misunderstand what he sees. [Now he did say that Roy would not remember his ghostly visit, but this was not a prediction. He simply made a statement without verifying the future-from which we can predict that Roy will not visit the oracle again.]
The oracle's prediction are the literal truth, just not the important part of it.

B]The prophecies are not a prediction based on facts, but a photograph from the future. It does not matter how unexpected an event is, the Oracle knows all about it [or nothing as Roy shows.]

[Adeptus]

A]
B]The prophecies are not a prediction based on facts, but a photograph from the future. It does not matter how unexpected an event is, the Oracle knows all about it [or nothing as Roy shows.]

Exactly. So if the "photograph of the future" is an explosion or such, with Belkar being lost into the rift, and then nothing... Belkar is clearly dead from the Oracle's point of view.

[Grey Pilgrim]

First of all, I think that Oracle is an ass, so my opinion is not going to be strictly objective.

Second, I agree with those saying that 100% true prophecies are dull and boring.

As for Belkar's case, we have never even seen any actual prophecy about it. Only some stuff that one enigmatic NPC said, which no doubt served it's own agenda, but there is nowhere written it has to be true. Now you are going to ask: 'But what about the green glow stuff the Oracle showed Ghost-Roy and said it was a recap of a prophecy?' But Roy did not remember it "from the last time he was there" because of the memory charm, did he? So the Oracle tells him: 'I will show you a recap' and Roy believes it to be true because of the meory charm. But we, the readers, are free of the said charm and we remember all of their previous visit to the Oracle - and such prophecy was not given that day! QED the prophecy is a lie. What was Oracle's purpose in telling Roy? (And making him bypass the memory charm through banishing?) We will find out no doubt.

I'm kinda surprised that everyone here is talking about the proverbial A.P.Cechov's gun and yet fails to see that this so-called "prophecy" has been delivered to us (and the characters) in the most suspicious way.

[Kish]

I'm kinda surprised that everyone here is talking about the proverbial A.P.Cechov's gun and yet fails to see that this so-called "prophecy" has been delivered to us (and the characters) in the most suspicious way.
You know, I really think the most annoying thing about the Belkar's death prophecy is the way so many of the dozens--or is it hundreds?--of people who propose ways the prophecy will not come true sprinkle in "It's so odd that everyone thinks the prophecy's going to come true!"

If people who have expressed the belief that Belkar is going to die and not come back are even a majority, it's a pretty slight majority at this point.

[Mutant Sheep]

You know, I really think the most annoying thing about the Belkar's death prophecy is the way so many of the dozens--or is it hundreds?--of people who propose ways the prophecy will not come true sprinkle in "It's so odd that everyone thinks the prophecy's going to come true!"

If people who have expressed the belief that Belkar is going to die and not come back are even a majority, it's a pretty slight majority at this point.

This. This this this. It makes me pray for Belkar's permanent death just so we can stop seeing people act like it's a new idea when they say Belkar won't die, he'll fall in the Rift. (And I love Belkar). When was that first said? Three comics after Blackwing told us about the other world? Before?:smalltongue: I'm fine with the predicting and guesses, but the weird conspiracy-only-one-who-seems-to-see-it attitude is quite aurgh.

[magic9mushroom]

Unless there is something like a body stocking, the loss of blood pressure drops the human into unconsciousness in a few seconds. The window of action during a catastrophic decompression is very short.

Blood vessels and human skin are strong enough that air pressure is not required to maintain blood pressurisation (skin IS a "body stocking"). Hypoxia (suffocation) is the relevant threat, and occurs on basically the same timeframe as suffocation in a depressurised aeroplane (which is, however, faster than suffocation in anoxic air, because in the latter case O2 will remain in the lungs for some time).

[skim172]

I have a similar idea. I also think Belkar will be sucked into the Gate somehow. But rather than being transported to the "Gate-world," I think he'll be utterly obliterated by the Snarl - body, mind, and soul, gone. Not just dead in a D&D sense, but really, really dead.

Because I also think Belkar is set to make a redemptive sacrifice. And sacrifice isn't meaningful in a universe when the afterlife is a revolving door. Unless they really, truly die and can't come back. The Snarl is the only possibility of that happening.

[Lombard]

Man a spelljammer sub plot would be so freakin AWESOME

Also, just sayin... if I found out there was some prophecy about me drawing my last breath i'd be like pen paper draw draw draw NOW WHAT lol

[Throknor]

This. This this this. It makes me pray for Belkar's permanent death just so we can stop seeing people act like it's a new idea when they say Belkar won't die, he'll fall in the Rift. (And I love Belkar). When was that first said? Three comics after Blackwing told us about the other world? Before?:smalltongue: I'm fine with the predicting and guesses, but the weird conspiracy-only-one-who-seems-to-see-it attitude is quite aurgh.

One thing that's changed is Belkar's constitution. Even if there is a planet he can fall to would that affect how well he can survive the transition?

[Adeptus]

This. This this this. It makes me pray for Belkar's permanent death just so we can stop seeing people act like it's a new idea when they say Belkar won't die, he'll fall in the Rift. (And I love Belkar). When was that first said? Three comics after Blackwing told us about the other world? Before?:smalltongue:
Mea culpa. It was most likely me, right after I saw Blackwing tell V what it had seen. There may have been others who posted the same.

The "not long for this world" and the planet in the rift. How could one not get a brainwave from that?

I'm not claiming any "it must be so!". It's just fun to do wild speculation.