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View Full Version : Found out Pathfinder rules for investments. Now to dissect it with math/finance.



ShippoWildheart
2013-08-23, 01:51 PM
Hi everybody. I was given a link by a friend who wanted to do investments for our game. He wants to give a small use for our gold so it's not just lying in a stash collecting dust. The link is here as listed: http://www.d20pfsrd.com/gamemastering/other-rules/ultimate-campaign---investments


You start off by investing a certain amount of investment money (called seed money in this case). How it works is that each year, the DM will secretly roll a d100 to see what happens in that year with your investment.

So there are several categories:

Investment: This is what you'll put your money to be used by said industry.

Normal Return: This is how much you'll get back for your money.

Failed Year: This is the chance that the industry won't make money so you get nothing. If there are 3 failed years in a row you lose all of your money you put into the industry. If you want the industry to continue, you gotta invest 2x~3x your initial investment.

Normal Year: You simply make what's your normal return. You can reinvest everything, cash everything, or pocket just the return and remain investing.

Breakout Year: This means the industry made it large that year. Loads of money is made on this year, since your normal return is multiplied with a "Breakout Return". You can do the same thing with your money as with a normal year.

Breakout Return: For this. The dice list and the modifier is rolled, and your normal return is multiplied with the breakout return. Let's use Creative as an example, where normal return is 4%. So if the breakout return was 2d4+1, during a breakout year you can get anywhere from as little as 4 * 3 = 12% return to up to 4 * 9 = 36% return.

Some conditions: If you want to stop investing in said industry** (say if you're pulling out due to two bad years in a row and you are afraid of losing the rest of your money) or if you need money fast (for dire emergencies), you lose half of your invested money as it's assumed involved parties are selling their assets fast to create liquidity to get your money.

**How I'm reading this is that to stop investing in the industry is that you want to take out your investment before the year is over, when the industry doesn't have the sufficient resources to readily return your investment.





I can't recall right now, but I'm very sure there was a set of Statistics/Finance formulas and methods to find out which investments would make the most money overall, factoring in all risks. Anyone want to take a crack at it? :smallcool:

My opinion right now: It seems to me that Military is the safest option. I could be wrong on this as other people take the time to math this out and show that I'm wrong.

john_doe
2013-08-23, 04:21 PM
I assume you have enough money to keep pumping in until you liquify, essentially ignoring multiple failures. Someone with better probability skills could probably incorporate the chances better. You could potentially only invest in a particular business for two years at a time, liquifying after the two years to avoid failure.

Magical has the highest payoff, at 0.1125% investment per year, but has an extremely high failure rate.
Exotic has the second highest expected average payoff of 0.0625% of your investment per year, closely followed by military at 0.06%.

Stable has the worst payoff, at 0.0097% per year.

My equation:

Expected Yearly Income =
((Normal Year Chance) * (Normal Return)) + ((Breakout Year Chance) * (Breakout Multiplier) * (Normal Return))

I used average rolls for the Breakout Multiplier.

ShippoWildheart
2013-08-26, 06:04 PM
I assume you have enough money to keep pumping in until you liquify, essentially ignoring multiple failures. Someone with better probability skills could probably incorporate the chances better. You could potentially only invest in a particular business for two years at a time, liquifying after the two years to avoid failure.

Magical has the highest payoff, at 0.1125% investment per year, but has an extremely high failure rate.
Exotic has the second highest expected average payoff of 0.0625% of your investment per year, closely followed by military at 0.06%.

Stable has the worst payoff, at 0.0097% per year.

My equation:

Expected Yearly Income =
((Normal Year Chance) * (Normal Return)) + ((Breakout Year Chance) * (Breakout Multiplier) * (Normal Return))

I used average rolls for the Breakout Multiplier.

I'd have responded sooner, but I was out of town for the weekend. My how this sub-section move.

I had a feeling that Military was up there among one of the best investments. I do wonder how much things change when you factor in the failure rate, or if it's a non-issue when you can just pull out at the end of the year so there's no penalty. This does seem like a nice formula though. Thanks a bunch!

watchwood
2013-08-26, 07:17 PM
Investments have a pretty terrible return rate. You're better off using the downtime system if you want to generate cash on the side, and if you're able to maintain it.

http://www.d20pfsrd.com/gamemastering/other-rules/downtime