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View Full Version : Advent of Magic! (WoD; Thought Experiment)



Absol197
2013-09-03, 11:57 PM
Hey there! This is the second in my line of thought experiments (The first can be found here (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?t=266432)!). This time, instead of a wave of draconic usurpers intent on enslaving us, I wanted to focus on a shift no less dramatic, but much less blatant and obvious: in this case, the magical abilities of Mage: the Awakening start to slowly become real across the world, as do the other realms of the World of Darkness.

So, to the numbers (as you may have seen from the last thread, I love charts and tables)!

Firstly, not all of the people who awaken in this scenario are as powerful as a true Mage from Awakening, but some of them are more powerful. I’ve divided those who awaken into different “classes,” or relative levels of power, as follows:
{table=head]Class|Population (1/x)|% Awaken|Initial Gnosis|Initial Arcana|Gnosis Max|Arcana Max (Major/Mod./Minor)
0|100|17.32%|0|---|1|---
1|505|28.24%|0|---|2|1/0/0
2|2,600|41.78%|0|1|4|2/1/0
3|13,625|55.88%|1|1, 1|6|3/2/0
4|72,500|68.50%|1|2, 1|8|4/3/1
5|390,625|77.95%|1 to 2|2, 2, 1, +1|10|5/4/2
6|2,125,000|84.56%|2 to 3|2, 2, 1, +1, +1|10|5/5/3
7|11,640,625|89.19%|2 to 3|3, 2, 2, +1, +1|10|6/5/4
8|64,062,500|92.44%|2 to 4|3, 3, 2, 1, +1, +1|10|6/6/5
9|353,515,625|94.71%|3 to 5|3, 3, 2, 1, +2, +1|10|6/6/5
10|1,953,125,000|96.29%|3 to 6|3, 3, 3, 2, 1, +2, +1|10|6/6/6[/table]
Class: A relative level of power. Not everyone who awakens will hold exactly to the levels given here for their class, but most will fall into those norms. Class 0 is essentially a “sensitive,” a person who has the unseen senses of a mage, and minor abilities to manipulate magical energy, but no spellcasting ability.
Population (1/x): The ratio of how many people, approximately, have the potential to awaken to be that class. So 1 out of every 100 people could, potentially, awaken to be a Class 0, but its only nearly 1 in 2 billion who has the potential to be a class 10.
% Awaken: The percentage of those with the potential to awaken who actually do. I’ve come up with this number (and the actual population fraction number, as well) through lots of calculating. I won’t bore you with the details (unless you like details :smalltongue:), but those are the numbers I came up with.
Initial Gnosis: This is the initial Gnosis score of a person of that class. A person with Gnosis 0 has a Mana pool equal to their Willpower, and can spend one point every other turn. If this column gives a range, then someone of that class may have any starting Gnosis in that range. The higher values are considerable rarer. If the range is 2 numbers, likely only 1 in 4 has the higher value. If its three numbers, 1 in 4 has the middle value, and 1 in 9 has the highest value, and so forth.
Initial Arcana: The starting levels in the different arcana a mage has. They must have at least a 1 on both of their Major arcana (of they get at least two initial arcana, that is), but they don’t need to be the highest two initial values they get. The plusses are added after, and can’t be stacked (a class with multiple plusses can’t add them to the same arcana).
Arcana Max: The maximum rating a mage can have in their different arcana.

The maximum values in this chart are meant to be at the very extreme edge of training and skill, so while a class 5 mage is capable of getting a 5 in both their major arcana, unless they devote a large portion of their time studying and getting better at magic, they likely won’t reach they level. A good determiner for how quickly a person learns is Gnosis – the higher a person’s gnosis, the quicker and easier they learn everything else.

But of course, I said these things slowly begin to creep into our world, didn’t I? Here’s how they progress – the different arcana evolve over the course of years. Each year, one new arcana comes into existence, and the previously existing ones begin to become more powerful.
{table=head]Year|Matter|Death|Life|Spirit|Space|Mind|Time|Fate |Forces|Prime||Necro|Sha|War|Ench|Thur|Total
1|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.0 0||0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00
2|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.0 0||0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00
3|1.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.0 0||0.01|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00
4|1.50|1.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.0 0||0.06|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.01
5|2.00|1.50|1.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.0 0||0.12|0.01|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.03
6|2.33|2.00|1.50|1.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.0 0||0.19|0.06|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.05
7|2.67|2.33|2.00|1.50|1.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.0 0||0.25|0.12|0.01|0.00|0.00|0.08
8|3.00|2.67|2.33|2.00|1.50|1.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.0 0||0.32|0.19|0.06|0.00|0.00|0.11
9|3.25|3.00|2.67|2.33|2.00|1.50|1.00|0.00|0.00|0.0 0||0.39|0.25|0.12|0.01|0.00|0.15
10|3.50|3.25|3.00|2.67|2.33|2.00|1.50|1.00|0.00|0. 00||0.46|0.32|0.19|0.06|0.00|0.21
11|3.75|3.50|3.25|3.00|2.67|2.33|2.00|1.50|1.00|0. 00||0.53|0.39|0.25|0.12|0.01|0.26
12|4.00|3.75|3.50|3.25|3.00|2.67|2.33|2.00|1.50|1. 00||0.60|0.46|0.32|0.19|0.06|0.33
13|4.10|4.00|3.75|3.50|3.25|3.00|2.67|2.33|2.00|1. 50||0.66|0.53|0.39|0.25|0.12|0.39
14|4.20|4.10|4.00|3.75|3.50|3.25|3.00|2.67|2.33|2. 00||0.69|0.60|0.46|0.32|0.19|0.45
15|4.30|4.20|4.10|4.00|3.75|3.50|3.25|3.00|2.67|2. 33||0.72|0.66|0.53|0.39|0.25|0.51
16|4.40|4.30|4.20|4.10|4.00|3.75|3.50|3.25|3.00|2. 67||0.76|0.69|0.60|0.46|0.32|0.56
17|4.50|4.40|4.30|4.20|4.10|4.00|3.75|3.50|3.25|3. 00||0.79|0.72|0.66|0.53|0.39|0.62
18|4.60|4.50|4.40|4.30|4.20|4.10|4.00|3.75|3.50|3. 25||0.83|0.76|0.69|0.60|0.46|0.67
19|4.70|4.60|4.50|4.40|4.30|4.20|4.10|4.00|3.75|3. 50||0.86|0.79|0.72|0.66|0.53|0.71
20|4.80|4.70|4.60|4.50|4.40|4.30|4.20|4.10|4.00|3. 75||0.90|0.83|0.76|0.69|0.60|0.76
21|4.90|4.80|4.70|4.60|4.50|4.40|4.30|4.20|4.10|4. 00||0.94|0.86|0.79|0.72|0.66|0.80
22|5.00|4.90|4.80|4.70|4.60|4.50|4.40|4.30|4.20|4. 10||0.98|0.90|0.83|0.76|0.69|0.83
23|5.08|5.00|4.90|4.80|4.70|4.60|4.50|4.40|4.30|4. 20||1.00|0.94|0.86|0.79|0.72|0.86
24|5.17|5.08|5.00|4.90|4.80|4.70|4.60|4.50|4.40|4. 30||1.00|0.98|0.90|0.83|0.76|0.89
25|5.25|5.17|5.08|5.00|4.90|4.80|4.70|4.60|4.50|4. 40||1.00|1.00|0.94|0.86|0.79|0.92
26|5.33|5.25|5.17|5.08|5.00|4.90|4.80|4.70|4.60|4. 50||1.00|1.00|0.98|0.90|0.83|0.94
27|5.42|5.33|5.25|5.17|5.08|5.00|4.90|4.80|4.70|4. 60||1.00|1.00|1.00|0.94|0.86|0.96
28|5.50|5.42|5.33|5.25|5.17|5.08|5.00|4.90|4.80|4. 70||1.00|1.00|1.00|0.98|0.90|0.98
29|5.58|5.50|5.42|5.33|5.25|5.17|5.08|5.00|4.90|4. 80||1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|0.94|0.99
30|5.67|5.58|5.50|5.42|5.33|5.25|5.17|5.08|5.00|4. 90||1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|0.98|1.00
31|5.75|5.67|5.58|5.50|5.42|5.33|5.25|5.17|5.08|5. 00||1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00|1.00[/table]

The first several columns show what arcana (and at what level) exist by that year. Basically, a level of an arcana that exists can be used by anyone that has skill at that level. If a level partially exists (such as being at 3.5), that means that about half of the spells and effects that level can create exist and can be used normally, and the rest can’t yet.

Additionally, this rule can be broken slightly by significantly skilled mages: class 5, 6, and 7 mages can attempt to use their major arcana at any level they know, even if they don’t “exist” yet, albeit at massive penalties: –2 for every level higher than the current existence for that arcana the spell they’re attempting is, –3 more if the arcana itself doesn’t exist at all. Class 8 and 9 mages can attempt this even with their moderate arcana, and a class 10 mage can do so with any arcana.

The columns after the break indicate what percentage of the total expected numbers of each path have come into their power by that time. So, for instance, by year 12, 60% of the expected world population of necromancers will have awakened, 46% of shamans, 32% of warlocks, 19% of enchanters, and 6% of theurges. The last column is just a total of all of those, giving how much of the total expected world population once everything is finished has awakened.

POPULATION
This gives the general population of mages per class. The first one is for the US, the second is for the world. I chose the US because I’m American, but if you want me to do a population estimate for a different country, let me know :smallsmile: , whether you think it’s pertinent, or if you’re just curious.

{table=head]Year|Class 0|Class 1|Class 2|Class 3|Class 4|Class 5|Class 6|Class 7|Class 8|Class 9|Class 10
1|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
2|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
3|1,087.25|351.03|100.89|25.75|5.93|1.25|0.25|0.05 |0.01|0.00|0.00
4|6,795.34|2,193.97|630.56|160.94|37.07|7.83|1.56| 0.30|0.06|0.01|0.00
5|14,406.12|4,651.21|1,336.79|341.19|78.59|16.60|3 .31|0.64|0.12|0.02|0.00
6|27,180.17|8,775.48|2,522.13|643.72|148.28|31.32| 6.25|1.20|0.23|0.04|0.01
7|41,587.49|13,427.07|3,859.03|984.94|226.88|47.92 |9.56|1.84|0.35|0.06|0.01
8|62,134.20|20,060.85|5,765.63|1,471.56|338.97|71. 59|14.28|2.75|0.52|0.10|0.02
9|84,058.37|27,139.35|7,800.04|1,990.80|458.58|96. 86|19.32|3.72|0.70|0.13|0.02
10|111,672.24|36,054.86|10,362.42|2,644.80|609.23| 128.67|25.66|4.94|0.93|0.17|0.03
11|141,207.18|45,590.60|13,103.05|3,344.29|770.35| 162.71|32.45|6.25|1.18|0.22|0.04
12|176,975.46|57,138.86|16,422.10|4,191.41|965.49| 203.92|40.67|7.83|1.47|0.27|0.05
13|211,454.70|68,270.94|19,621.54|5,008.00|1,153.5 9|243.65|48.59|9.36|1.76|0.33|0.06
14|245,081.09|79,127.66|22,741.84|5,804.40|1,337.0 3|282.40|56.32|10.84|2.04|0.38|0.07
15|276,689.97|89,333.01|25,674.92|6,553.01|1,509.4 8|318.82|63.58|12.24|2.31|0.43|0.08
16|306,990.56|99,115.95|28,486.61|7,270.64|1,674.7 8|353.73|70.54|13.58|2.56|0.47|0.09
17|335,630.04|108,362.59|31,144.16|7,948.92|1,831. 02|386.73|77.12|14.85|2.80|0.52|0.10
18|362,072.07|116,899.74|33,597.80|8,575.16|1,975. 28|417.20|83.20|16.02|3.02|0.56|0.10
19|387,195.80|125,011.27|35,929.11|9,170.18|2,112. 34|446.15|88.97|17.13|3.23|0.60|0.11
20|410,658.75|132,586.60|38,106.31|9,725.87|2,240. 34|473.18|94.36|18.17|3.42|0.64|0.12
21|432,346.76|139,588.86|40,118.80|10,239.52|2,358 .66|498.17|99.35|19.13|3.60|0.67|0.12
22|451,917.35|145,907.48|41,934.82|10,703.02|2,465 .43|520.72|103.85|20.00|3.77|0.70|0.13
23|469,737.45|151,660.93|43,588.40|11,125.06|2,562 .64|541.26|107.94|20.78|3.91|0.73|0.13
24|485,741.83|156,828.16|45,073.50|11,504.10|2,649 .95|559.70|111.62|21.49|4.05|0.75|0.14
25|499,908.76|161,402.14|46,388.09|11,839.63|2,727 .24|576.02|114.87|22.12|4.17|0.77|0.14
26|512,172.99|165,361.81|47,526.13|12,130.09|2,794 .15|590.15|117.69|22.66|4.27|0.79|0.15
27|522,512.78|168,700.14|48,485.59|12,374.97|2,850 .56|602.07|120.07|23.12|4.35|0.81|0.15
28|530,862.90|171,396.09|49,260.42|12,572.73|2,896 .11|611.69|121.99|23.49|4.42|0.82|0.15
29|537,201.59|173,442.62|49,848.61|12,722.86|2,930 .69|618.99|123.44|23.77|4.48|0.83|0.15
30|541,463.63|174,818.68|50,244.10|12,823.80|2,953 .94|623.90|124.42|23.96|4.51|0.84|0.15
31|543,627.27|175,517.23|50,444.87|12,875.04|2,965 .75|626.40|124.92|24.05|4.53|0.84|0.15[/table]

{table=head] Year|Class 0|Class 1|Class 2|Class 3|Class 4|Class 5|Class 6|Class 7|Class 8|Class 9|Class 10
1|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
2|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0
3|24,153.84|7,798.39|2,241.31|572.05|131.77|27.83| 5.55|1.07|0.20|0.04|0.01
4|150,961.48|48,739.91|14,008.19|3575.31|823.57|17 3.95|34.69|6.68|1.26|0.23|0.04
5|320,038.35|103,328.60|29,697.36|7579.65|1,745.96 |368.76|73.54|14.16|2.67|0.50|0.09
6|603,819.37|194,951.05|56,030.28|14300.60|3,294.1 2|695.75|138.75|26.72|5.03|0.93|0.17
7|923,884.28|298,288.23|85,730.10|21880.89|5,040.2 3|1,064.55|212.30|40.88|7.70|1.43|0.26
8|1,380,338.68|445,660.55|128,085.93|32691.36|7,53 0.41|1,590.50|317.19|61.07|11.50|2.14|0.39
9|1,867,393.56|602,912.65|173,281.27|44226.56|10,1 87.53|2,151.71|429.11|82.62|15.56|2.89|0.53
10|2,480,847.90|800,974.47|230,205.61|58755.36|13, 534.21|2,858.56|570.07|109.77|20.67|3.84|0.71
11|3,136,979.65|1,012,815.26|291,090.12|74294.90|1 7,113.73|3,614.59|720.84|138.80|26.14|4.85|0.89
12|3,931,587.76|1,269,364.97|364,824.28|93114.07|2 1,448.69|4,530.18|903.44|173.95|32.76|6.08|1.12
13|4,697,559.09|1,516,668.92|435,901.15|111255.01| 25,627.43|5,412.77|1,079.45|207.85|39.14|7.27|1.34
14|5,444,584.14|1,757,855.82|505,219.93|128947.24| 29,702.81|6,273.54|1,251.11|240.90|45.36|8.42|1.55
15|6,146,789.34|1,984,572.03|570,379.74|145577.97| 33,533.68|7,082.65|1,412.47|271.97|51.21|9.51|1.75
16|6,819,930.22|2,201,904.44|632,842.58|161520.35| 37,205.98|7,858.28|1,567.15|301.75|56.82|10.55|1.9 4
17|7,456,168.87|2,407,322.48|691,881.15|176588.76| 40,676.97|8,591.39|1,713.35|329.90|62.12|11.53|2.1 2
18|8,043,590.20|2,596,979.21|746,389.80|190501.00| 43,881.63|9,268.25|1,848.33|355.89|67.02|12.44|2.2 9
19|8,601,725.00|2,777,180.39|798,180.87|203719.63| 46,926.53|9,911.36|1,976.58|380.59|71.67|13.31|2.4 5
20|9,122,964.81|2,945,469.54|846,548.34|216064.46| 49,770.14|10,511.96|2,096.36|403.65|76.01|14.11|2. 60
21|9,604,773.49|3,101,027.82|891,256.86|227475.41| 52,398.64|11,067.12|2,207.07|424.97|80.03|14.86|2. 73
22|10,039,542.56|3,241,398.76|931,600.44|237772.30 |54,770.51|11,568.09|2,306.98|444.20|83.65|15.53|2 .86
23|10,435,423.96|3,369,214.29|968,335.51|247148.19 |56,930.23|12,024.24|2,397.95|461.72|86.95|16.14|2 .97
24|10,790,968.45|3,484,006.52|1,001,327.59|255568. 75|58,869.90|12,433.92|2,479.65|477.45|89.91|16.69 |3.07
25|11,105,692.95|3,585,619.47|1,030,531.86|263022. 55|60,586.87|12,796.56|2,551.97|491.38|92.53|17.18 |3.16
26|11,378,148.24|3,673,585.26|1,055,813.83|269475. 27|62,073.25|13,110.50|2,614.58|503.43|94.80|17.60 |3.24
27|11,607,851.23|3,747,747.90|1,077,128.69|274915. 46|63,326.39|13,375.17|2,667.36|513.59|96.72|17.96 |3.30
28|11,793,352.70|3,807,639.50|1,094,341.95|279308. 80|64,338.38|13,588.92|2,709.99|521.80|98.26|18.24 |3.36
29|11,934,169.58|3,853,104.08|1,107,408.79|282643. 85|65,106.61|13,751.18|2,742.34|528.03|99.43|18.46 |3.40
30|12,028,852.62|3,883,673.75|1,116,194.72|284886. 28|65,623.15|13,860.27|2,764.10|532.22|100.22|18.6 1|3.42
31|12,076,918.75|3,899,192.54|1,120,654.93|286,024 .66|65,885.37|13,915.66|2,775.15|534.35|100.62|18. 68|3.44[/table]

OTHER PLANES AND PHENOMENA
The other planes of existence from Mage also exist, including Twilight (Where ghosts and other ephemeral creatures and objects are), the Spirit World, Faerie, separate by the Hedge as always, and the Underworld from Geist. Additionally, there’s an Abyss where demons come from, basically ringing all the other worlds.

Additionally, other random magical phenomena exist in the world as well, and like everything else they become more and more common (although probably never too common) as time goes on.

Some examples of other phenomena are:
Matter: Odd geological formations, unusual materials. Rare.
Death: Ghosts and other spectral objects/entities. Fairly common.
Life: Cryptids and other magical/supernatural creatures. Uncommon.
Spirit: Spirits reaching through the Gauntlet, Loci, etc. Fairly common.
Space: Natural portals, places where space is warped (essentially mimicking simpler spells). Rare.
Mind: Shared dreaming, other odd mental phenomena. Uncommon.
Time: Places where time moves at different rates. Rare.
Fate: People/places/things with destinies; entrances to the Hedge, hobgoblins and fey. Fairly common.
Forces: Places where gravity is lesser stronger, vortexes with odd magnetic fields, places where heat flows odd, etc. Uncommon.
Prime: Hallows, tass forming, etc. Fairly common.

These other phenomena aren’t limited by what “exists” for mages, and they grow as such:
{table=head]Year|Percent of normal opccurance
1|1
2|4
3|9
4|16
5|25
6|36
7|49
8|64
9|81
10|100[/table]

Obviously, people might not be able to deal with things right away, especially if the arcana needed to do yet don’t exist for humans.


Now, as before, there are a couple of changes to the normal rules to make the scenario more interesting:
—Paradox is not a thing. Or rather, it is, but it is not caused by Disbelief from people who are not Mages witnessing magic, but instead from people trying too difficult or powerful magic, or screwing up with a lot of power being worked. So everyday people can see magic being used and recognize it for what it is (potentially), and it can be recorded and studied, although science is probably going to be baffled by trying to piece it together;
—All mages (including class 0’s) can spend 3 mana to regain a spent point of Willpower, just like they do to heal with a pattern restoration. This is not limited like physical healing is;
—Death 3 can open doorways to the Underworld, and Fate 3 can open pathways into the Hedge;
—Mind magic can heal Willpower in the same way Life magic can heal Health. Spent dots of Willpower are like Aggravated damage;
—Life magic can be made permanent;
—Rotes are much easier to learn, and don’t require a teacher (although it’s definitely helpful!). Basically, by practicing certain spells, a mage can make it into a rote;
—The Fey aren’t nearly as big and bad as they are in Changeling. They’re more on par with spirits—some really are enormously powerful, but those are the exceptions. And they’re affected by Fate magic.

Okay, is that enough tables for you? It’s not for me, but I’m crazy like that :smallsmile: . So, the question is: given this progression of events, how does the world change as these things unfold? What conversations start happening? When doe the world at large start to get an inkling of what’s happening, and when do they come to accept the new reality? How do people go about trying to understand this? What new laws are passed? In short, how does the world continue to evolve giving this sudden and unexpected turn of events?

Grinner
2013-09-04, 05:39 AM
Population (1/x): The ratio of how many people, approximately, have the potential to awaken to be that class. So 1 out of every 100 people could, potentially, awaken to be a Class 0, but its only nearly 1 in 2 billion who has the potential to be a class 10.
% Awaken: The percentage of those with the potential to awaken who actually do. I’ve come up with this number (and the actual population fraction number, as well) through lots of calculating. I won’t bore you with the details (unless you like details :smalltongue:), but those are the numbers I came up with.

Please do tell how you came up with these numbers.


Okay, is that enough tables for you? It’s not for me, but I’m crazy like that :smallsmile: . So, the question is: given this progression of events, how does the world change as these things unfold? What conversations start happening? When doe the world at large start to get an inkling of what’s happening, and when do they come to accept the new reality? How do people go about trying to understand this? What new laws are passed? In short, how does the world continue to evolve giving this sudden and unexpected turn of events?

I'm tempted to just direct you to the TV series Alphas, but you've put so much work into this. I suppose a little depth is in order here.

Here's my initial guess:


In the beginning...

Nothing really changes for the first few years.
Then weird things start to happen. Small weird things, but weird things nonetheless. Then again, weird things happen every day, and we just ignore them.



Around year ten...

There's a noticeable uptick in "scientific" discoveries. Materials science makes a number of interesting discoveries, none of which you'll see used in your lifetime (unless you're a military scientist or something).
Bigfoot hunters finally nab the damn critter. Scientific communities across the world are sent into uproar over this. Theories range from genetic mutation to lost, inbred Native American tribes cloaked by invisibility force fields.
Due to an increase in actual hauntings, ghost hunting is starting to produce consistent results now, but ghost hunters at large are still too inept to connect the dots. What they really need is academic support...Somebody to interpret their findings (without laughing them off on principle)...
Effects in the Mystery Spot of Broward County, Florida begin to increase. A documentary about the site is aired on the History Channel.



Around year fifteen...

Something bizarre is definitely happening. Widespread denial continues.
Certain alternative religions experience a surge in membership.
Effects in the Mystery Spot take a turn for the worse. Tourism increases. Its proprietors move to Aruba.



Around year twenty...

Small cults start popping up everywhere. Some are benign, others aren't.
Richard Dawkins finds God.
The Pythagorean holy grail, a unified theory of physics, seems farther out of reach than ever before.
Police are swamped with reports of people being dragged to Hell.
Broward County, Florida disappears overnight. Speculation runs wild.



Around year twenty-five

The FBI establishes the Extranormal Investigations Division.
A national state of emergency is declared.



Around year thirty-one...

And in those dark days, the sorcerer kings did reign.


Edit: Year fifteen needs some work.

Absol197
2013-09-04, 10:02 PM
Please do tell how you came up with these numbers.

Okay, you asked for it :smalltongue: !
The population ratio is just a simple equation. I wanted Class 0s to be fairly common, but for Class 10s to be extremely rare. The equation I came up with gave me almost the exact numbers I was looking for for those classes, and it filled in the others. The equation is:

R = (100 + C^2) * 5^C

C is the Class, and R is the ratio obviously :smallsmile:

For the Awaken %, that was a bit more complicated. First, I decided that each person with magical potential had three ways to Awaken. The first was to randomly awaken sometime in their life with no outside stimulus. The second way is during a life-threatening event. Lastly, during an event that strongly coincides with one of their major arcana. The only one I could accurately model a percentage for was the first, so actually my population numbers a likely a little low.

For determining if someone's chance of awakening through the normal course of life, I did it as a roll: the person's class + the Willpower -5 (because it's rare). So I figured out the percentage that a roll for each Class and Willpower level.

Finally, using the assumption that the standard 5/4/3 attribute set was the human norm, and that every potential combination is equally likely, I determined how many combinations of different attributes resulted in each Willpower level, then determined the percentage of the total possible combinations that was. Then I used the two numbers to get the percentage of people of each Class that would Awaken without additional stimulus sometime in their lifetime.

If you're curious, here are the charts for that:
{table=head]Class|Will 2|Will 3|Will 4|Will 5|Will 6|Will 7|Will 8|Will 9
0|3.43%|4.90%|7.00%|10.00%|30.00%|51.00%|65.70%|75 .99%
1|4.90%|7.00%|10.00%|30.00%|51.00%|65.70%|75.99%|8 3.19%
2|7.00%|10.00%|30.00%|51.00%|65.70%|75.99%|83.19%| 88.24%
3|10.00%|30.00%|51.00%|65.70%|75.99%|83.19%|88.24% |91.76%
4|30.00%|51.00%|65.70%|75.99%|83.19%|88.24%|91.76% |94.24%
5|51.00%|65.70%|75.99%|83.19%|88.24%|91.76%|94.24% |95.96%
6|65.70%|75.99%|83.19%|88.24%|91.76%|94.24%|95.96% |97.18%
7|75.99%|83.19%|88.24%|91.76%|94.24%|95.96%|97.18% |98.02%
8|83.19%|88.24%|91.76%|94.24%|95.96%|97.18%|98.02% |98.62%
9|88.24%|91.76%|94.24%|95.96%|97.18%|98.02%|98.62% |99.03%
10|91.76%|94.24%|95.96%|97.18%|98.02%|98.62%|99.03 %|99.32%[/table]
{table=head]Willpower|Average Population %
2|8.89%
3|16.44%
4|22.00%
5|23.11%
6|16.22%
7|9.11%
8|3.56%
9|0.67%[/table]


I'm tempted to just direct you to the TV series Alphas, but you've put so much work into this. I suppose a little depth is in order here.

Here's my initial guess:


In the beginning...

Nothing really changes for the first few years.
Then weird things start to happen. Small weird things, but weird things nonetheless. Then again, weird things happen every day, and we just ignore them.



Around year ten...

There's a noticeable uptick in "scientific" discoveries. Materials science makes a number of interesting discoveries, none of which you'll see used in your lifetime (unless you're a military scientist or something).
Bigfoot hunters finally nab the damn critter. Scientific communities across the world are sent into uproar over this. Theories range from genetic mutation to lost, inbred Native American tribes cloaked by invisibility force fields.
Due to an increase in actual hauntings, ghost hunting is starting to produce consistent results now, but ghost hunters at large are still too inept to connect the dots. What they really need is academic support...Somebody to interpret their findings (without laughing them off on principle)...
Effects in the Mystery Spot of Broward County, Florida begin to increase. A documentary about the site is aired on the History Channel.



Around year fifteen...

Something bizarre is definitely happening. Widespread denial continues.
Certain alternative religions experience a surge in membership.
Effects in the Mystery Spot take a turn for the worse. Tourism increases. Its proprietors move to Aruba.



Around year twenty...

Small cults start popping up everywhere. Some are benign, others aren't.
Richard Dawkins finds God.
The Pythagorean holy grail, a unified theory of physics, seems farther out of reach than ever before.
Police are swamped with reports of people being dragged to Hell.
Broward County, Florida disappears overnight. Speculation runs wild.



Around year twenty-five

The FBI establishes the Extranormal Investigations Division.
A national state of emergency is declared.



Around year thirty-one...

And in those dark days, the sorcerer kings did reign.


Edit: Year fifteen needs some work.

I like it! I was wondering when bigfoot would show up :smallbiggrin: ! But what about the actual mages themselves? Do they get worked into society at all, and in what ways? The vast majority of mages won't be able to cast any world-shattering spells, but even simple spells have interesting applications. For instance, mage sight (a level 1 spell for all arcana) lets you read auras, allowing you to identify people, even if they're disguised. That's a useful thing, and you can't see that someone's using it. Also, Matter 1 can detect substances. Once it's discovered this is a learnable ability among many casters, even less talented ones, what uses would something like that be put to? I can see immediate use for airport security - no more need to have people throw out water when they can check for explosive substances with magic.

Any other details you can think of?

Grinner
2013-09-05, 05:25 AM
I like it! I was wondering when bigfoot would show up :smallbiggrin: ! But what about the actual mages themselves? Do they get worked into society at all, and in what ways? The vast majority of mages won't be able to cast any world-shattering spells, but even simple spells have interesting applications. For instance, mage sight (a level 1 spell for all arcana) lets you read auras, allowing you to identify people, even if they're disguised. That's a useful thing, and you can't see that someone's using it. Also, Matter 1 can detect substances. Once it's discovered this is a learnable ability among many casters, even less talented ones, what uses would something like that be put to? I can see immediate use for airport security - no more need to have people throw out water when they can check for explosive substances with magic.

That assumes we accept them for what they are. The spirit of the times is unwelcoming to the concept of the supernatural. After all, the Catholic Church itself has denounced the practice of exorcism. So what happens when people can act in ways that most cannot account for?

By year fifteen, magic will have grown so powerful that it cannot simply be ignored. The panopticon we will have developed is going to capture someone in the act. Our prevailing sentiment against the supernatural will cause us to write these things off as hoaxes or anomalies...for a time. But eventually, the evidence is going to stack up, while magic itself continues to grow more powerful, more overt. The guy down the street is going to start showing off, and the friendly neighborhood Men in Black are going to want to know more.

If everyone plays nice, few things would change. Sure, Mages would be more employable, but the law wouldn't need to change in drastic and utterly draconian ways to counteract these peoples' abilities. But would that really be the case? How will the people at the top, fewer in number and less likely to be Mages, respond to the now-superpowered people at the bottom? Is human nature essentially kind? Or are all humans just aiming for the biggest paycheck and the most friends?


Any other details you can think of?

Unfortunately, I don't actually own or play Mage: The Awakening, so my ability to contribute is fairly limited in regard to Mages.

I will again recommend Alphas, as something like this is the entire premise of the show. Alas, the show never reached a proper conclusion, so you will have to decide for yourself whether cynicism or idealism prevails.*

I suppose X-Men could also work.

*Edit: If you want my opinion, regardless of what happens, the revolution will not be clean and neat. There will be many, many obstacles.