Malachi Lemont
2013-10-06, 11:15 PM
When designing galaxy-spanning stories like Star Wars and Star Trek, producers often come up with ways to get around the tricky issue of Light Speed. After all, the galaxy is a huge place, and even at speeds like 0.99c, it might take more than a human lifetime to reach the nearest star system.
But that doesn't mean we'll have to rely on "hyperspace" or "warp speed" or other such ideas that violate the laws of physics. Maybe interstellar travel can still be plausible in the far future, if the human lifespan is extended. I'm not talking about next century, I'm talking about the far far future. What's to say humans, or posthumans, won't be living 2000 years or more? That to me seems far more likely than inventing FTL travel. Granted, medical advances like that would be far from easy, but I think sometime down the road, it could happen.
Even by the end of the 21st century, exploring other star systems will probably not be worth the expense. We would have to have entire generations born in space that would never know how their expedition started. This idea would not appeal to most people. In addition, we'd still have all sorts of economic and environmental issues to sort out back on Earth.
But if we were able to extend life by several centuries, as well as establishing some sort of world peace, then space exploration might start to seem like a good idea. I don't know about you, but I would be a lot more willing to embark on a 1000 year voyage if I knew I might live to see the destination.
So I started to think about what our lifespans might actually be. At first, all I could come up with was: something longer than what we have now, but shorter than eternity. In order to come up with a more accurate guess, i decided to make some broad assumptions.
1. Given enough time, we will eventually be able to prevent or cure nearly all medical problems.
2. Through both geographic expansion (space colonies) and informational expansion (uploading our minds onto computers), we will be able to sustain nearly infinite population grown at some point in the future.
3. Accidents will always happen.
Yes, these are some huge assumptions to make. But they're basically the prerequisites for a galactic civilization. I'm not saying it's likely that these assumptions will be met. What I'm asking is: If they are met, then what?
The important factor here is Assumption 3. Accidents will always happen. No matter how advanced our medical technology, we cannot create immortality, nor should we, because it is part of human nature to test one's limits. That is to say, with aging and disease eliminated, there will be three main causes of death: Suicide, Homicide, and Accidental. Sure, at this point, we might have evolved into giant robo-tanks, but that doesn't stop the fact that enough firepower, or one needle in the right place, will still do us in. So, in this kind of future, what kind of lifespans can we expect? Feel free to offer your own predictions. Here's mine.
In 2012, one in every 1379 people dies each year of a non-health related cause - violence or accidents. If these were the only possible deaths, then each year, you would have, on average, a 99.93% of living through the next year. Suppose that for a highly advanced future society, this is actually true. Regardless of birth rates, which are a whole different question, this would create a perfectly exponential curve for life expectancy. Using these numbers, the median life expectancy came out to 956 years. So almost half the people in the universe would live to see their 1000th birthday.
Now, if we assume a constant birth rate, we can get even more specific. The population, split into 5 groups with an equal number of people in each group,would look something like this:
Youngest 20%: 0 - 300 years old.
Second youngest 20%: 300 - 700 years old.
Middle 20%: 700 - 1250 years old.
Second Oldest 20%: 1250 - 2200 year old.
Oldest 20%: Over 2200 years old.
99th percentile: 6350 years old.
What kind of culture do you think would develop in a civilization with these demographics? How would the young view the old, and vice versa? What would be the new "age of adulthood." At what age would (some) people get tired of their bodies and get entirely new ones? At what age might (some) people get tired of existence altogether and consider suicide? How old would the typical soldier be? The typical athlete? Scientist? Politician? So many great questions to explore. Please let me know what you think. Thanks!
But that doesn't mean we'll have to rely on "hyperspace" or "warp speed" or other such ideas that violate the laws of physics. Maybe interstellar travel can still be plausible in the far future, if the human lifespan is extended. I'm not talking about next century, I'm talking about the far far future. What's to say humans, or posthumans, won't be living 2000 years or more? That to me seems far more likely than inventing FTL travel. Granted, medical advances like that would be far from easy, but I think sometime down the road, it could happen.
Even by the end of the 21st century, exploring other star systems will probably not be worth the expense. We would have to have entire generations born in space that would never know how their expedition started. This idea would not appeal to most people. In addition, we'd still have all sorts of economic and environmental issues to sort out back on Earth.
But if we were able to extend life by several centuries, as well as establishing some sort of world peace, then space exploration might start to seem like a good idea. I don't know about you, but I would be a lot more willing to embark on a 1000 year voyage if I knew I might live to see the destination.
So I started to think about what our lifespans might actually be. At first, all I could come up with was: something longer than what we have now, but shorter than eternity. In order to come up with a more accurate guess, i decided to make some broad assumptions.
1. Given enough time, we will eventually be able to prevent or cure nearly all medical problems.
2. Through both geographic expansion (space colonies) and informational expansion (uploading our minds onto computers), we will be able to sustain nearly infinite population grown at some point in the future.
3. Accidents will always happen.
Yes, these are some huge assumptions to make. But they're basically the prerequisites for a galactic civilization. I'm not saying it's likely that these assumptions will be met. What I'm asking is: If they are met, then what?
The important factor here is Assumption 3. Accidents will always happen. No matter how advanced our medical technology, we cannot create immortality, nor should we, because it is part of human nature to test one's limits. That is to say, with aging and disease eliminated, there will be three main causes of death: Suicide, Homicide, and Accidental. Sure, at this point, we might have evolved into giant robo-tanks, but that doesn't stop the fact that enough firepower, or one needle in the right place, will still do us in. So, in this kind of future, what kind of lifespans can we expect? Feel free to offer your own predictions. Here's mine.
In 2012, one in every 1379 people dies each year of a non-health related cause - violence or accidents. If these were the only possible deaths, then each year, you would have, on average, a 99.93% of living through the next year. Suppose that for a highly advanced future society, this is actually true. Regardless of birth rates, which are a whole different question, this would create a perfectly exponential curve for life expectancy. Using these numbers, the median life expectancy came out to 956 years. So almost half the people in the universe would live to see their 1000th birthday.
Now, if we assume a constant birth rate, we can get even more specific. The population, split into 5 groups with an equal number of people in each group,would look something like this:
Youngest 20%: 0 - 300 years old.
Second youngest 20%: 300 - 700 years old.
Middle 20%: 700 - 1250 years old.
Second Oldest 20%: 1250 - 2200 year old.
Oldest 20%: Over 2200 years old.
99th percentile: 6350 years old.
What kind of culture do you think would develop in a civilization with these demographics? How would the young view the old, and vice versa? What would be the new "age of adulthood." At what age would (some) people get tired of their bodies and get entirely new ones? At what age might (some) people get tired of existence altogether and consider suicide? How old would the typical soldier be? The typical athlete? Scientist? Politician? So many great questions to explore. Please let me know what you think. Thanks!