What's the chance that Tarquin killed Elan?

[Tiiba]

What's the chance Tarquin killed ONLY Elan?

Yeah, I know it's not likely. But Elan sure looks like it smarts.

[Emanick]

By the rules, zero. By what we know about the way Rich writes, very close to zero.

I know Rich doesn't follow the rules precisely, but he generally pays enough attention to the major ones that we can be reasonably sure that some things won't happen. Vaarsuvius is not about to start casting epic spells or ten Power Word Stuns in a row, Belkar is not about to start one-hitting giants, and Tarquin is not about to one-hit a mid-to-high-level character with a greatsword, especially when he's not even trying to. All of those things are almost equally ridiculous.

[Smolder]

0%

Evidence:
No XX in eyes.
Elan started with full HP.
Tarquin is explicitly trying not to kill Elan.

[dps]

0%

Evidence:
No XX in eyes.
Elan started with full HP.
Tarquin is explicitly trying not to kill Elan.

The bolded part is all we need.

[Kornaki]

We've seen characters not get X'd until one or several panels after the killing blow, so that's not decisive.

[NerdyKris]

Elan is at full HP, as he stated. And we know that characters know their exact HP, as we've seen at other times. (Nale being an exception due to his arrogance)

You cannot kill a 15th level character, even a bard, with a single greatsword strike. Characters in the story also know how much damage their weapons do, and Tarquin explicitly states that he knows this isn't enough to kill Elan, but enough to kill Roy (since he's weakened) or bring him dangerously close to death.

So the chances are zero. Tarquin is brutal, but he knows this won't kill Elan.

[dancrilis]

He could kill him.
Assuming he is aiming for Roy and that Elan merely gets in the way than no attack roll is really needed to hit - so he can maximise power attack with a two handed weapon for +40 damage + 2d6 + weapon bonus (assume +5) + strength bonus (assume +9 including bonus from two handed weapon).
Elan: 6+13d6+42 = 94
Tarquin: 2d6+54=66
More for a critical *2.

So average critical damage with a maxed power attack for a two handed weapon kills Elan.

He doesn't actually need the strength bonus or the weapon bonus and could still kill him with max damage.

[Cavenskull]

He could kill him.
Assuming he is aiming for Roy and that Elan merely gets in the way than no attack roll is really needed to hit - so he can maximise power attack with a two handed weapon for +40 damage + 2d6 + weapon bonus (assume +5) + strength bonus (assume +9 including bonus from two handed weapon).
Elan: 6+13d6+42 = 94
Tarquin: 2d6+54=66
More for a critical *2.

So average critical damage with a maxed power attack for a two handed weapon kills Elan.

He doesn't actually need the strength bonus or the weapon bonus and could still kill him with max damage.
So you're working on the assumption that Tarquin is actually trying to kill Elan, despite claiming otherwise? Why would Tarquin try to go for a maximized power attack when he knows he has to go through his son in order to kill Roy? Logically Tarquin is going to want to do as little damage as necessary to kill Roy. After all, the overkill won't make a dead Roy any more dead, but it will decrease the odds of Elan surviving the attack.

[dancrilis]

People were saying that he couldn't kill Elan with a single attack - people were wrong.
The change of him deciding to operate like that was low but possible.