The Oracle changed the outcome of things

[Turin_19]

Hi,

Ok. It's pure speculation on my part, but I really think Belkar won't die.

The regular flow of events would have made Belkar kill the Oracle, without activating his Mark of Justice. But, to get back on him, the Oracle created the town of 'Suckmyorangeballshalfling'.

The Oracle only did that because he predicted the future. Once he did that, he changed the future (normally, Belkar wouldn't have his Mark activated then, but by the oracle's choices it changed).

Due to the Mark, Belkar got character growth. With that, he became reliable, and Roy didn't kill him when he had the chance (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0880.html).

Ok, just speculation. I just hate the idea of seeing Belkar die any minute now and try to find any reasons.

Thanks

[Eluin]

That.

Actually isn't toooo terribly impossible but I think Roy would have commented if the IC year had passed without Belkar dying. The oracles predictions have always been incredibly accurate before, and I doubt he'd be so brazen as to do something to change them.

Edit: He's a watcher, not a mover and shaker.

[Orc Warrior]

I actually like this interpretation; but the only thing I can't reason out is that the Oracle clearly said that Belkar would breathe his last -ever- before then end of this year.

[Porthos]

Hi,

Ok. It's pure speculation on my part, but I really think Belkar won't die.

The regular flow of events would have made Belkar kill the Oracle, without activating his Mark of Justice. But, to get back on him, the Oracle created the town of 'Suckmyorangeballshalfling'.

The Oracle only did that because he predicted the future. Once he did that, he changed the future (normally, Belkar wouldn't have his Mark activated then, but by the oracle's choices it changed).

Due to the Mark, Belkar got character growth. With that, he became reliable, and Roy didn't kill him when he had the chance (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0880.html).

Ok, just speculation. I just hate the idea of seeing Belkar die any minute now and try to find any reasons.

Thanks

Problem: The Oracle made the official in-trance prediction of Belkar's death after the Mark of Justice was activated.

[Turin_19]

That.

Actually isn't toooo terribly impossible but I think Roy would have commented if the IC year had passed without Belkar dying. The oracles predictions have always been incredibly accurate before, and I doubt he'd be so brazen as to do something to change them.

Edit: He's a watcher, not a mover and shaker.

Hi!
I agree. He's a watcher! But wasn't he the one responsible for creating the town of 'Suckmyorangeballshalfling'?

Would the 'normal flow' of time have created that town? Or was that town created especifically to the purpose of activating Belkar's Mark of Justice?

So, if the Oracle didn't know the outcome, he couldn't have created the town. But, seeing Belkar would kill him, he changed the results by creating the town.

Thus, possibly changing everything.

PS: I know he reconfirms the prophecy after Belkar leaves. However, it could maybe be... he just 'forgot' to recheck the future. Hehehe.

[Vladier]

Well, he doesn't really change anything. All he does is look into the future and read the comic. So everything he's done was re-enacting the scenes from the comic.

[Porthos]

However, it could maybe be... he just 'forgot' to recheck the future. Hehehe.

Denial ain't just a river in Egypt, you know. :smallwink:

And, remember, The Oracle has already prophecized things that involve his own actions. For instance he predicts his own death when he is going to tell the jealous Druid about said Druid's animal companion. Yet he schedules a resurrection ahead of time.

The Oracle may dance on the strings of Rich fate like everyone else. But he is not only a puppet who can see his strings, he makes snarky comments about it as well. :smalltongue:

[Turin_19]

Denial ain't just a river in Egypt, you know. :smallwink:

And, remember, The Oracle has already prophecized things that involve his own actions. For instance he predicts his own death when he is going to tell the jealous Druid about said Druid's animal companion. Yet he schedules a resurrection ahead of time.

The Oracle may dance on the strings of Rich fate like everyone else. But he is not only a puppet who can see his strings, he makes snarky comments about it as well. :smalltongue:

I agree, but still, he brings himself back to life, changing little of the further outcome of fate (I'm totally ignoring the butterfly wings in the other side of the world here). He doesn't kill the Druid, or creates some way of defending himself from death. He simply remedies it.

With Belkar, well.. In my mind, he changed the outcome for Belkar, not only for him.


PS: 'Denial' river was absolutely great, hehehe.

[Jaxzan Proditor]

Belkar only killed the Oracle because the Oracle predicts the future. By predicting the future, the Oracle has already messed up time, so according to your hypothesis there have already been many changes to the future. This makes me feel that the Oracle accounts for the way he affects the future in his prophesies.

Personally, I think the way the future works is that there is one "set" future, and that those who try to use their visions of the future to their advantage only end making things fall on that course. However, since I can't control the way OOTS future works, my personal opinion doesn't mean much. :smallbiggrin:

[B. Dandelion]

It depends whether the timestream is immutable or not, but we have thus far no reason to suspect it isn't. The setup for all prophecies and visions of the future have thus far been of the "the attempt to fight fate is precisely what enables it to come to pass" variety, such as the obviously misguided attempt to protect the dwarven homelands by sending Durkon away.

There's no reason to believe the Oracle has ever actually "changed" anything, any actions that he makes as a result of his visions have always been a part of the one single unbroken timeline.

For example he couldn't have seen his death at the hands of a druid unless the timestream had already accounted for the fact that he would (as a result of knowing the future) have scheduled for his own resurrection from his earlier death at Belkar's hands. So he saw a vision of the future that had already taken into account actions he would later be taking as a result of another vision.

[Jay R]

Hi,

Ok. It's pure speculation on my part, but I really think Belkar won't die.

The regular flow of events would have made Belkar kill the Oracle, without activating his Mark of Justice. But, to get back on him, the Oracle created the town of 'Suckmyorangeballshalfling'.

The Oracle only did that because he predicted the future. Once he did that, he changed the future (normally, Belkar wouldn't have his Mark activated then, but by the oracle's choices it changed).

Due to the Mark, Belkar got character growth. With that, he became reliable, and Roy didn't kill him when he had the chance (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0880.html).

You left out the linchpin of your argument. Could you please cite the basis for the idea that since the Oracle is an actual creature on earth who affects things like everybody else, it somehow in this one instance annuls a prophecy, when it has never done so in the past?

[And if he had that power, why wouldn't he use it to prevent being stabbed?]


Ok, just speculation. I just hate the idea of seeing Belkar die any minute now and try to find any reasons.

This appears to be the real issue. But "I hate the idea" is not a logical refutation of it.

[Cavenskull]

Hi!
I agree. He's a watcher! But wasn't he the one responsible for creating the town of 'Suckmyorangeballshalfling'?

Would the 'normal flow' of time have created that town? Or was that town created especifically to the purpose of activating Belkar's Mark of Justice?

So, if the Oracle didn't know the outcome, he couldn't have created the town. But, seeing Belkar would kill him, he changed the results by creating the town.

Thus, possibly changing everything.

PS: I know he reconfirms the prophecy after Belkar leaves. However, it could maybe be... he just 'forgot' to recheck the future. Hehehe.
If everything has changed, why did Durkon's prophecy still come true? Surely with Belkar's Mark of Justice remaining dormant, the events at Greysky City would have been dramatically different, which in turn means that Belkar would not have experienced his character growth. IF Belkar was still with the party, there's no guarantee that events at the pyramid would have played out the same, meaning that Durkon might not have had to chase after Belkar, only to be killed by Malack.

[ChowGuy]

With Belkar, well.. In my mind, he changed the outcome for Belkar, not only for him.
Well yeah, but that's the point of prophecy isn't it? I mean aside from the making a fortune (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0330.html) bit. knowing the future so you can try to make what's destined to happen work for you. It's the people who try to alter it that end up in trouble.

[Porthos]

It depends whether the timestream is immutable or not, but we have thus far no reason to suspect it isn't. The setup for all prophecies and visions of the future have thus far been of the "the attempt to fight fate is precisely what enables it to come to pass" variety, such as the obviously misguided attempt to protect the dwarven homelands by sending Durkon away.

There's no reason to believe the Oracle has ever actually "changed" anything, any actions that he makes as a result of his visions have always been a part of the one single unbroken timeline.

For example he couldn't have seen his death at the hands of a druid unless the timestream had already accounted for the fact that he would (as a result of knowing the future) have scheduled for his own resurrection from his earlier death at Belkar's hands. So he saw a vision of the future that had already taken into account actions he would later be taking as a result of another vision.

"What's really going to bake your noodle later on is, would you still have broken it if I hadn't said anything?"
- A different, but no less accurate, Oracle :smallwink:

[factotum]

I'm actually sorry for the Oracle, because he is doomed to know exactly how things will play out and is not given the opportunity to change them. For instance, he knew that Belkar would come back and kill him, yet he made no attempt to be elsewhere at the time--which we know he can do, because he was out when Xykon turned up later in the strip! He probably even knew that his series of ever-more unlikely "theories" would just annoy Belkar enough to kill him, but had to go through with it because of the prophecy.

[snowblizz]

Theoretically there may be a chance the Oracle can change outcomes. Or other agencies change stuff that impacts the predictions.

The two Brothers ask if they are *still* scheduled to raise the Oracle a specified date. (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0571.html)

Which suggest some wiggle room in fate.

I don't remember exactly what Rich suggested in the book commentaries about the Oracle and prophesies, but IIRC it leaned towards the idea that stuff tends to happen, whether you try and fix stuff or not.

[Kornaki]

Also if the oracle had to choose between activating Belkar's mark of justice or watching Belkar get murdered by Roy I think we know what he would pick.

[Jay R]

Theoretically there may be a chance the Oracle can change outcomes. Or other agencies change stuff that impacts the predictions.

The two Brothers ask if they are *still* scheduled to raise the Oracle a specified date. (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0571.html)

Which suggest some wiggle room in fate.

OR that those two brothers have no idea whether or not there is some wiggle room for Fate.

OR that they aren't the only clerics in the world, and know that the Oracle might use somebody else next time.

OR that competent workers routinely confirm their appointments.

OR that they are just making conversation about the only topic they have in common.

OR that Rich was using exposition to explain why they showed up, and to tell the joke about the bear.

OR ... but enough.

I just sent an email to my D&D group asking if we're still on for tomorrow. You can draw no conclusion about Fate from that fact.

[Turin_19]

You left out the linchpin of your argument. Could you please cite the basis for the idea that since the Oracle is an actual creature on earth who affects things like everybody else, it somehow in this one instance annuls a prophecy, when it has never done so in the past?

[And if he had that power, why wouldn't he use it to prevent being stabbed?]



This appears to be the real issue. But "I hate the idea" is not a logical refutation of it.

I'm just saying that he didn't act, for Belkar's prophecy, as a simple viewer, but as an active player, who changed the way the story went forward. If he just had himself killed, things would have gone different.

He chose to alter the timeline. Which means that maybe there's room to change the course of events. Which thus leads to the possibility of Belkar not dying.

[Turin_19]

OR that those two brothers have no idea whether or not there is some wiggle room for Fate.

OR that they aren't the only clerics in the world, and know that the Oracle might use somebody else next time.

OR that competent workers routinely confirm their appointments.

OR that they are just making conversation about the only topic they have in common.

OR that Rich was using exposition to explain why they showed up, and to tell the joke about the bear.

OR ... but enough.

I just sent an email to my D&D group asking if we're still on for tomorrow. You can draw no conclusion about Fate from that fact.

OR that some times before, the Oracle ended up being wrong.

Same chance.

[Amphiox]

Hi,

Ok. It's pure speculation on my part, but I really think Belkar won't die.

The regular flow of events would have made Belkar kill the Oracle, without activating his Mark of Justice. But, to get back on him, the Oracle created the town of 'Suckmyorangeballshalfling'.

The Oracle only did that because he predicted the future. Once he did that, he changed the future (normally, Belkar wouldn't have his Mark activated then, but by the oracle's choices it changed).

Due to the Mark, Belkar got character growth. With that, he became reliable, and Roy didn't kill him when he had the chance (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0880.html).

Ok, just speculation. I just hate the idea of seeing Belkar die any minute now and try to find any reasons.

Thanks

If the Oracle can see the future, and change the future, the Oracle should also be able to see the new future that results from the changes he makes. The Oracle would presumably not wish to change the future in such a way as to make his own predictions wrong, since he has a reputation to maintain....

[LordRahl6]

If the Oracle can see the future, and change the future, the Oracle should also be able to see the new future that results from the changes he makes. The Oracle would presumably not wish to change the future in such a way as to make his own predictions wrong, since he has a reputation to maintain....

Unless, the Oracle can't see his own place in the affairs of things, but this would be problematical given the resurrection info. Also, we have the issue of If and Then prophecies to deal with. (see my screen name:smallwink:)

[NihhusHuotAliro]

My theory is that destiny and prophecies are like a bunch of rube goldberg machines.

In a normal Rube Goldberg setup, you can stop it by, say, moving the rubber duck filled with water out of the way of the counterweight (this way, the Rubber duck won't get hit by the counterweight and won't squirt out the water into the tiny model Chaldron Wagon on the top of the train track's hill. (then, the Chaldron Wagon, with the water inside it making it heavier, will og down the hill and into the train track, and so on, and so on).

Cause and effect, one linear road of X causes Y causes Z causes A causes B. Mess up Z, and you mess it all up. In this example, I guess the DUck is Z.


But, with Destiny, it works like a bunch of interconnected Rube Goldberg machines.

For example, say that right on the floor by the Duck is a little rocker switch. If the duck is where it's supposed to be (meaning it gets hit by the counterweight and it squirts water into the Chaldronlblahblahblah), it proceeds as normal; and the counterweight doesn't touch the switch.

If you remove the duck, then there's nothing squishy to keep the counterweight from hitting the floor and the rocker switch. Assuming that we position the Rocker switch so that the counterweight will turn it on/off
/whatever/ you-know-what-I-mean, it's a change.

So, X makes Y(counterweight) makes Z (duck) makes A(chaldron) makes B makes C and so on.

If we remove the duck;

X makes Y(counterweight) makes Za (switch turned).

Depending on what flipping that switch does (maybe it makes B happen, whatever it is; skipping the Chaldron entirely [perhaps taking the same time to make B happen as the scenario with the Duck would, so whichever choice you do, you can't stop B]).

So, like that. X makes Y makes Z makes A makes B makes C. Remove A and you get "X makes Y makes Za makes ?? makes B makes C."

Whether or not you remove Z, B still happens.

Now, (that simple idea is to my-idea-of-destiny) as (that simple z-counterweight-duck-chaldron-b-c is to a real Rube Goldberg device).

Doing it on a much more complicated and intricate level; there is still choice; and it's not arbitrarily "whatever you do, B will happen. No matter what; it will be contrived if it has to". It's like that for a reason. Lots of possible paths, all leading to that same place for reasons which make perfect sense when you can see the whole picture; but that requires understanding a lot more than any one individual can see.

Clearly, though, that example makes allowance for Z not happening; but it always has B happening. So, I guess there are some things that can be avoided and some things that can't. And the hypothetical things that cannot be stopped or prevented would be the things that the Oracles prophecy about.

Roy/Belkar/Anyone might not be able to prevent B where B is (Belkar's death), but there are multiple thing that lcan make B happen. (A makes b. Aa makes B. Ab makes B.); and perhaps multiple things that can be caused by B. (Like a ricochet. If a peg gets hit from the right, it will fall to the left, knocking over the left domino. If the peg gets hit from the left, it will fall to the right, knocking over the right domino.).

Belkar dying at a date before the end of the in-comic year is one event in the world's grand intricate mess of a cause-and-effect existence that cannot be avoided. But the causes and effects of that death? That can be changed.

That's why you can't mess with prophecies. You're just moving the duck and letting the counterweight hit the switchboard. That's why prophecies are so vague, because, say, there are multiple ways and times in which Durkon can return home and bring death and destruction. Whether it's the duck or the rocker switch or something else entirely that eventually leads to B is not determined; it could be any of them; but all will eventually cause B. So, the Prophecy doesn't go into that much detail on the specifics.

There is still free will and choice, and most things aren't set in stone. But the things that are set in stone, well, are set in stone. Nothing you can do will stop (B), but you can change the causes and effects of (B), and the way in which (B) happens.

Spoilered for huge, hard-to-understand wordiness.

[Jaxzan Proditor]

I think that may have been the best explanation of how prophecy interacts with the future. Good explanation. :smallsmile:

[Bulldog Psion]

The Oracle, being able to see the future, can change it.

Belkar, being unable to see the future, goes wherever fate takes him, led by the nose.

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed Kobold is king.*

*Or at least rich as heck with contingency plans to keep him alive.

Belkar probably could change the future if he was able to see it, and avoid dying. But he can't, and whatever it is that finishes him off is just going to blindside him. Thus, for all practical purposes, it is fated, though it could be avoided if certain nonexistent preconditions were met.

[Jay R]

I'm just saying that he didn't act, for Belkar's prophecy, as a simple viewer, but as an active player, who changed the way the story went forward. If he just had himself killed, things would have gone different.

On what basis do you assume that this was a change? He saw that Belkar would kill him then; how do you know that he didn't also see the town and the activated Mark of Justice?


He chose to alter the timeline. Which means that maybe there's room to change the course of events. Which thus leads to the possibility of Belkar not dying.

You say that he altered the timeline, which would change that part of the prophecy, rather than fulfilling it. What clear evidence do you have for that?

Note that he told the clerics that he should have remembered to tell them to wear galoshes (because of Belkar's mess from the activated Mark of Justice). That only makes sense if he had already seen the mess, and had something to remember, and therefore he knew that the Mark of Justice would be activated. So unless you have other compelling evidence to offer, the record seems to indicate that, rather than deviating from the prophecy, he actually was fulfilling it.

[mucat]

OR that some times before, the Oracle ended up being wrong.

Same chance.
Same chance? I don't follow you.

[Amphiox]

My theory is that destiny and prophecies are like a bunch of rube goldberg machines.
...Spoilered for huge, hard-to-understand wordiness.

One could take this described scenario and posit that the future is *contingently* variable depending on the past. Some events can be easily changed by the slightest circumstance. Other events have a momentum to them that makes them very hard to change - one would have to change many, many things to avoid them. Others have so much momentum to them that they are essentially certain no matter what.

Prophecies will opine on the first (this will surely happen) and second (if this then that, or this, else that). They will simply avoid opining about the first. There's no prophet out there that tries to predict *every* event that happens. Adventurers typically don't go to Oracles to ask stuff like "will I stub my toe tomorrow before noon?"

[Jay R]

OR that some times before, the Oracle ended up being wrong.

Same chance.

I'll bite. When did the Oracle end up being wrong?

[LordRahl6]

My theory is that destiny and prophecies are like a bunch of rube goldberg machines.

In a normal Rube Goldberg setup, you can stop it by, say, moving the rubber duck filled with water out of the way of the counterweight (this way, the Rubber duck won't get hit by the counterweight and won't squirt out the water into the tiny model Chaldron Wagon on the top of the train track's hill. (then, the Chaldron Wagon, with the water inside it making it heavier, will og down the hill and into the train track, and so on, and so on).

Cause and effect, one linear road of X causes Y causes Z causes A causes B. Mess up Z, and you mess it all up. In this example, I guess the DUck is Z.


But, with Destiny, it works like a bunch of interconnected Rube Goldberg machines.

For example, say that right on the floor by the Duck is a little rocker switch. If the duck is where it's supposed to be (meaning it gets hit by the counterweight and it squirts water into the Chaldronlblahblahblah), it proceeds as normal; and the counterweight doesn't touch the switch.

If you remove the duck, then there's nothing squishy to keep the counterweight from hitting the floor and the rocker switch. Assuming that we position the Rocker switch so that the counterweight will turn it on/off
/whatever/ you-know-what-I-mean, it's a change.

So, X makes Y(counterweight) makes Z (duck) makes A(chaldron) makes B makes C and so on.

If we remove the duck;

X makes Y(counterweight) makes Za (switch turned).

Depending on what flipping that switch does (maybe it makes B happen, whatever it is; skipping the Chaldron entirely [perhaps taking the same time to make B happen as the scenario with the Duck would, so whichever choice you do, you can't stop B]).

So, like that. X makes Y makes Z makes A makes B makes C. Remove A and you get "X makes Y makes Za makes ?? makes B makes C."

Whether or not you remove Z, B still happens.

Now, (that simple idea is to my-idea-of-destiny) as (that simple z-counterweight-duck-chaldron-b-c is to a real Rube Goldberg device).

Doing it on a much more complicated and intricate level; there is still choice; and it's not arbitrarily "whatever you do, B will happen. No matter what; it will be contrived if it has to". It's like that for a reason. Lots of possible paths, all leading to that same place for reasons which make perfect sense when you can see the whole picture; but that requires understanding a lot more than any one individual can see.

Clearly, though, that example makes allowance for Z not happening; but it always has B happening. So, I guess there are some things that can be avoided and some things that can't. And the hypothetical things that cannot be stopped or prevented would be the things that the Oracles prophecy about.

Roy/Belkar/Anyone might not be able to prevent B where B is (Belkar's death), but there are multiple thing that lcan make B happen. (A makes b. Aa makes B. Ab makes B.); and perhaps multiple things that can be caused by B. (Like a ricochet. If a peg gets hit from the right, it will fall to the left, knocking over the left domino. If the peg gets hit from the left, it will fall to the right, knocking over the right domino.).

Belkar dying at a date before the end of the in-comic year is one event in the world's grand intricate mess of a cause-and-effect existence that cannot be avoided. But the causes and effects of that death? That can be changed.

That's why you can't mess with prophecies. You're just moving the duck and letting the counterweight hit the switchboard. That's why prophecies are so vague, because, say, there are multiple ways and times in which Durkon can return home and bring death and destruction. Whether it's the duck or the rocker switch or something else entirely that eventually leads to B is not determined; it could be any of them; but all will eventually cause B. So, the Prophecy doesn't go into that much detail on the specifics.

There is still free will and choice, and most things aren't set in stone. But the things that are set in stone, well, are set in stone. Nothing you can do will stop (B), but you can change the causes and effects of (B), and the way in which (B) happens.

Spoilered for huge, hard-to-understand wordiness.

This is also how it worked on Babylon 5, the foundation on which Rich developed some of his stuff regarding the Oracle.:smallwink: