Is Azure city doomed?

[battleburn]

That is the question I am asking all of you?
No stupid polls, just trying to be rational about this.

Miko was the only one knowing about the invading army. She told no-one until she told Shojo.
Now still no measures are taken for the protection of the city.
Shojo is dead, Hinjo is grieving, so he is not taking care of the defences of the city. Roy and Belkar have their hands full with the capturing of Miko.
And Miko, well, she doesn't seem mentally capable of anything resembling rational thought right now. And even if she did, who would believe a palladin stripped from her powers.
Concusion, when finally Hinjo comes to his senses, it will be to late to mount anything resembling a good defence.
Probably making every mistake from the book and falling directly into the trap (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0376.html) Xycon set for the city.

So, what do you think?

-Battleburn

[RMS Oceanic]

Doomed? Perhaps.

Will never be the same again? A Dead Cert.

Maybe the Guard can beat back Xycon, but fail to save the gate. We'll just have to wait and see. One thing's for certain: Things will be irrevokably shaken up.

[Alfryd]

No stupid polls, just trying to be rational about this.Aww! You spoil everything!


For my money, yes, Azure city is probably going to fall. Xykon is one mean mutha, they've had almost no warning, their government is in crisis thanks to Madam Miyazaki and their defences have been crippled by a certain reckless Zeppelin-captain.
None of which bodes well. Roy and Co. could easily take out a hundred hobgoblins every dozen rounds and Xykon can simply send more into the meat-grinder. They are heavily screwed, strategically.
However, we do know that most of our heroes survive the day, so I presume that either a substantial number of citizens escape, or maybe Xykon will make some spectacular screwup that halts the army. I dunno.

[kabbor]

Yes, it is doomed. Why? Because the Oracle said that Xycon would go to Girad's gate. That means that Soon's gate must be destroyed without fulfilling Xycon's plans, or Xycon gets control of this gate but needs another. Ether way, Azure city is doomed.
Pity, that.

[Charles Phipps]

I hope so.

Hinjo can join the OOTS then!

[Alfryd]

That means that Soon's gate must be destroyed without fulfilling Xycon's plans, or Xycon gets contrtol of the gate but needs another.
Well *theoretically* Xykon and all his army could be destroyed, forcing him to trek toward a Gate that he can tackle himself without the benefit of legions of minions, following regeneration.
*shrugs*

[The_Hunting_Enemy]

I know people are gonna hate me for this, but I sure hope so. Not to sound rude or anything, but I'm kinda sick of the Eastern fantasy in the Western fantasy world. It's good for a while, but after like, 200 strips, it gets old. That and I'm not a fan of this particular mixed genre.

In terms of story, however, I agree with Kabbor.

Edit: Alfryd, I highly doubt they will be able to beat that many hobgoblins. Then again, if 300 hundred people can beat 10 000 orcs....

[Dr. Simon]

Yes, it is doomed. Why? Because the Oracle said that Xycon would go to Girad's gate. That means that Soon's gate must be destroyed without fulfilling Xycon's plans, or Xycon gets control of this gate but needs another. Ether way, Azure city is doomed.
Pity, that.

No, it's because Roy tried to be too clever with his wording and removed the Azure City gate as a viable option for the Oracle's answer. Of the two gates he allows - Girard's and Kragors, the Oracle answered that Zycon would be closer to Girard's first. That could just as much mean that Girard's Gate is closer to Azure City than Kragor's Gate.

[battleburn]

In that case the oracle wouldn't have answered the question.
The question was coming within a certain amount of yards of the gate.
But who knows, it might be seen as a loophole, but Rich is the Judge and Jury about that.

[The_Hunting_Enemy]

No, it's because Roy tried to be too clever with his wording and removed the Azure City gate as a viable option for the Oracle's answer. Of the two gates he allows - Girard's and Kragors, the Oracle answered that Zycon would be closer to Girard's first. That could just as much mean that Girard's Gate is closer to Azure City than Kragor's Gate.

You do pose a very good point there. I still want to see a good map of the OotS world to be sure though.

[Alfryd]

Alfryd, I highly doubt they will be able to beat that many hobgoblins. Then again, if 300 hundred people can beat 10 000 orcs....Azure city has a population of 500,000. The hobgoblin lieutenant mentioned 87 legions 300 strong each, or 26,100 men, say 25K after Xykon's done with 'em. Azure city's male population of fighting age- let's be conservative and say 100,000. Most of those would be untrained, though, and Xykon seems awful confident of victory. Besides, it may not be possible to organise a draft in the time available, and they may well not even have that many weapons and armour. So, let's say they manage to get a fighting force of 30,000 able-bodied men with reasonable combat proficiency. They have good fortifications in place, but no provisions laid that I'm aware of and Xykon has surprise, and probably plenty of siege equipment.

[battleburn]

Xycon has flying creatures and siege engines (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0300.html).
Also part of the defences have allready been destroyed.
Are the palladins the only defence of the city, or are the palladins just a private army.
So was Shojo ruler of the city because he was leader of the palladins or was it an extra.
It matters a lot for the amount of capable fighters in the city and the amount of weapons and armor.

[Alfryd]

Xycon has flying creatures and siege engines (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/../comics/oots0300.html).Ooh. Well-spotted.

Azure city's male population of fighting age-Oh, gosh, I'm being terribly un-PC here! In D&D, women have identical combat stats, so, 200,000 adults of fighting age. We still have no idea what size of armed forces or militias, stocks of arms and armour the city can muster, though. It seems the sapphire guard were not a secular military organisation, and technically operated in secret, so the city probably had a fair degree of auxiliary muscle.

I can't help but notice I'm using the past tense here.

[nonsens]

Maybe it's like this:
Xykon gets to the gate, but again needs somebody of pure heart.
Right at that time he sees Miko and manipulates her to open the gate.
Unfortunatly, we've all seen recently Miko has fallen (and thus, is no longer of pure heart). She touches the gate and KABOOM! bye bye Miko, bye bye Xykon's plan to open the Azure City gate.

[nothingclever]

Azure city has a population of 500,000. The hobgoblin lieutenant mentioned 87 legions 300 strong each, or 26,100 men, say 25K after Xykon's done with 'em. Azure city's male population of fighting age- let's be conservative and say 100,000. Most of those would be untrained, though, and Xykon seems awful confident of victory. Besides, it may not be possible to organise a draft in the time available, and they may well not even have that many weapons and armour. So, let's say they manage to get a fighting force of 30,000 able-bodied men with reasonable combat proficiency. They have good fortifications in place, but no provisions laid that I'm aware of and Xykon has surprise, and probably plenty of siege equipment.Xykon also has all the creatures he zombified from his base when he last visited it and cleared out all the good aligned monsters.

[Green Bean]

Xycon has flying creatures and siege engines (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0300.html).


I'm not sure if flying creatures will be that great of an advantage. I mean, flight is such a huge advantage in a seige situation that I'm sure it's just one of the things architects have to include defences against.

[Solara]

No, it's because Roy tried to be too clever with his wording and removed the Azure City gate as a viable option for the Oracle's answer. Of the two gates he allows - Girard's and Kragors, the Oracle answered that Zycon would be closer to Girard's first. That could just as much mean that Girard's Gate is closer to Azure City than Kragor's Gate.

Technically, the question wasn't about which gate Xykon would simply be closer too, but which one he would be actually be within 1000 feet of next.

There's a rule in theatre that you don't show a gun in the first act without having it go off by the third (to paraphrase.) Similarly, I'd say you don't reveal the existance of three gates in a story like this without having at least two of them blow up and a dramatic final battle to save the world centered around the last.

Also, you know they can't permanently stop Xykon here, because there's still plots to resolve (Haley's father and Durkon's return to his homeland, just off the top of my head) and after defeating Xykon and saving everyone from the Snarl those would seem anticlimatic in comparison.

[Swordguy]

I'm not sure if flying creatures will be that great of an advantage. I mean, flight is such a huge advantage in a seige situation that I'm sure it's just one of the things architects have to include defences against.

And those defenses were set on fire by a particularly dashing Airship captain, yes?

[Green Bean]

And those defenses were set on fire by a particularly dashing Airship captain, yes?

Yes, but there's a difference between a few flying zombies and a giant airship.

I think the battle is going to come down to what Xykon is going to do as opposed to what his army does. To be brutally honest, does the city have anything close to enough power to take on a zombie dragon, an undead spellcaster, a high-level cleric, and a whatever the MITD is?

[Lord Zentei]

I know people are gonna hate me for this, but I sure hope so. Not to sound rude or anything, but I'm kinda sick of the Eastern fantasy in the Western fantasy world. It's good for a while, but after like, 200 strips, it gets old. That and I'm not a fan of this particular mixed genre.

In terms of story, however, I agree with Kabbor.

Edit: Alfryd, I highly doubt they will be able to beat that many hobgoblins. Then again, if 300 hundred people can beat 10 000 orcs....

Not to disapoint you... but if they cross the western ocean at some point, they will go into the lands were Marduk and Tiamat, etc. are the main pantheon, so it likely will become more of a mixed genre, with ancient (i.e. pre-Islamic) Middle East thrown into the mix.


EDIT: What 300 people defeated 10000 orcs? If that is a LotR/Helm's Deep reference, they did have rather more Rohirim than that by the end of the battle.

[Swordguy]

There's absolutely no way to know.

For example, the nobles who keep trying to have Shojo killed could have personal guards, with casters and clerics. There's just not enough data to do anything but sheer speculation (not that that will stop anyone...).

[Grunjon]

And those defenses were set on fire by a particularly dashing Airship captain, yes?


So you're claiming that the defenses against flying adversaries are better suited for a man-sized flying creature, rather than a big ol' airship?

In a world where these airships are known, and in a city where this particular airship captain is a known and wanted criminal, doesn't that seem like a pretty darn big hole in Azure City's defenses? :smalleek:

[Krellen]

EDIT: What 300 people defeated 10000 orcs? If that is a LotR/Helm's Deep reference, they did have rather more Rohirim than that by the end of the battle.
It's actually a reference to the Battle of Thermapoli, wherein 300 Spartans held off an army of 10,000 Persians for a week until Greek reinforcements could arrive. A historical account (and recently glamourised in the movie "The 300".)

[Lord Zentei]

It's actually a reference to the Battle of Thermapoli, wherein 300 Spartans held off an army of 10,000 Persians for a week until Greek reinforcements could arrive. A historical account (and recently glamourised in the movie "The 300".)

The Persians were orcs? Well, well. :smalltongue:

But the 300 were not victorious - except in the badassery contest, that is.

[Swordguy]

It's actually a reference to the Battle of Thermapoli, wherein 300 Spartans held off an army of 10,000 Persians for a week until Greek reinforcements could arrive. A historical account (and recently glamourised in the movie "The 300".)

Heh, you're off by a bit. It's popularly estimated at 1,000,000 Persians. It's almost certainly less than that, but the Persian King's Immortals (his elite unit) numbered 10,000 men all by themselves.

As an aside:
Xykon casts a huge globe of darkness over the city, reasoning that humans need light to fight by and his hobgoblins and undead really don't.

Roy: "Good! We shall fight in the shade!" :smallbiggrin:

[The honest illusionist]

I think it all depends on how many exploding runes Vaarsuvius prepared that morning.

[Finwe]

Yes, but there's a difference between a few flying zombies and a giant airship.

I think the battle is going to come down to what Xykon is going to do as opposed to what his army does. To be brutally honest, does the city have anything close to enough power to take on a zombie dragon, an undead spellcaster, a high-level cleric, and a whatever the MITD is?


Well, to be fair, the MitD probably won't be doing anything at all. The OOTS could take out Redcloak without too much trouble, though he might get in a save or die spell on someone before he's toast...

However, there's a very large organization of paladins, with what's probably a pretty high average level. They'll be extremely useful in helping to mount the defenses of the walls, and combating the zombies. Xykon is probably the biggest threat.

[Jaysyn]

As an aside:
Xykon casts a huge globe of darkness over the city, reasoning that humans need light to fight by and his hobgoblins and undead really don't.

Roy: "Good! We shall fight in the shade!" :smallbiggrin:

Undead & creatures with Darkvision still can't see in a Globe of Darkness (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/darkness.htm). Not that Xykon has enough class-levels to create one that will encompass an entire city. I guess he could have researched a new Epic Spell or something, if he is in fact an Epic spellcaster.

[The Familiar]

No, it's because Roy tried to be too clever with his wording and removed the Azure City gate as a viable option for the Oracle's answer. Of the two gates he allows - Girard's and Kragors, the Oracle answered that Zycon would be closer to Girard's first. That could just as much mean that Girard's Gate is closer to Azure City than Kragor's Gate.

Based on the ice and snow that we keep seeing when Kagor's gate is hinted at, it's the one to the far to the North (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0300.html); according to Redcloak it would only require going through 8 human nations to get to.

Girard's gate then is the one that requires an ocean voyage before Xykon's Expeditionary Forces could get to it.

Yet of the two, the Oracle said Xykon would be within 1000 feet of Girard's Gate first.

Methinks a couple things: that the only reason Xykon would do a sea cruise is if he had no other choice.

That the only way Azure City avoids doom is if its Gate is portable enough to move, so Xykon and Redcloak no longer have a reason to sack it should their prize be spirited away. Even that's no guarantee though, since Redcloak has a historical axe to grind with the Sapphire Guard...

And that
putting one Gate inside another is about the equivalent of putting one Portable Hole inside another.

But that's just me thinking. :smallwink:

[Lord Zentei]

Heh, you're off by a bit. It's popularly estimated at 1,000,000 Persians. It's almost certainly less than that, but the Persian King's Immortals (his elite unit) numbered 10,000 men all by themselves.

They claimed to have a million troops; that's not to say they did. I have heard estimates into six figures, though.
[/off topic]


Well, to be fair, the MitD probably won't be doing anything at all. The OOTS could take out Redcloak without too much trouble, though he might get in a save or die spell on someone before he's toast...

However, there's a very large organization of paladins, with what's probably a pretty high average level. They'll be extremely useful in helping to mount the defenses of the walls, and combating the zombies. Xykon is probably the biggest threat.

Xykon and his zombified dragon.

On estimating the size of Xykon's forces: Linka (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0197.html).

Assuming that the legions are, on average, roughly the same size as Legion #1, that means about 26000 hobgoblins.

[Adeptus]

Yes, it is doomed. Why? Because the Oracle said that Xycon would go to Girad's gate. That means that Soon's gate must be destroyed without fulfilling Xycon's plans, or Xycon gets control of this gate but needs another. Ether way, Azure city is doomed.
Pity, that.

I think it will be another tie. The gate will be destroyed (again), and Xykon has to look elsewhere. It's pretty obvious that Xykon want's an intact, but open gate. He doesn't want a destroyed gate, or he would have been happy with Lirian's.

How do we know. Kabbor has it. It's pretty much inevitable from the oracle's ansver.

[Swordguy]

Undead & creatures with Darkvision still can't see in a Globe of Darkness (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/spells/darkness.htm). Not that Xykon has enough class-levels to create one that will encompass an entire city. I guess he could have researched a new Epic Spell or something, if he is in fact an Epic spellcaster.

...was...just...going...for the joke!

It's what Leonidas said to the Persian. The Persian said that there were so many Persians in thier army, "thier arrows would blot out the sun."

Leonidas's response was the same as what I attributed to Roy.

[Goofy]

Azure City must fall. Why? Because the BBEG is attacking it and there are targets after it. The heroes never win until the last stand, though every step of the way they stop the BBEG from gaining a total win. Therefore, Azure City will be destroyed along with the gate.

[Adeptus]

Ooh. Well-spotted.
Oh, gosh, I'm being terribly un-PC here! In D&D, women have identical combat stats, so, 200,000 adults of fighting age. We still have no idea what size of armed forces or militias, stocks of arms and armour the city can muster, though. It seems the sapphire guard were not a secular military organisation, and technically operated in secret, so the city probably had a fair degree of auxiliary muscle.

I can't help but notice I'm using the past tense here.

That's not really so important. The hobgoblins are an army. An army will beat almost any number of irregulars. It's not just takinga 2 hobgoblins vs. 5 humans fight and scaling it up. :D

[Alfryd]

EDIT: What 300 people defeated 10000 orcs? If that is a LotR/Helm's Deep reference, they did have rather more Rohirim than that by the end of the battle.
Also, in the Book, there were about 2000 defenders of the Hornburg.

Roy: "Good! We shall fight in the shade!"

I think it all depends on how many exploding runes Vaarsuvius prepared that morning.
Very droll.


To be brutally honest, does the city have anything close to enough power to take on a zombie dragon, an undead spellcaster, a high-level cleric, and a whatever the MITD is?
Theoretically, the Order. I mean, in the end. The thing about Xykon is, that, provided Redcloak gets away, he can just keep on coming back.

Assuming that the legions are, on average, roughly the same size as Legion #1, that means about 26000 hobgoblins.
I mentioned this. Of course, they'll be half-dead of exhaustion by the time they arrive, so that counts in the defenders' favour.

The hobgoblins are an army. An army will beat almost any number of irregulars.
Normally, yes, but these irregulars have walls and at least some qualified officers. Normally, you need something approaching 10:1 superiority to take a walled city with adequate provisions and defence.

[Angela Christine]

Miko was the only one knowing about the invading army. She told no-one until she told Shojo.
Now still no measures are taken for the protection of the city.
Shojo is dead, Hinjo is grieving, so he is not taking care of the defences of the city. Roy and Belkar have their hands full with the capturing of Miko.
And Miko, well, she doesn't seem mentally capable of anything resembling rational thought right now. And even if she did, who would believe a paladin stripped from her powers.
Concusion, when finally Hinjo comes to his senses, it will be to late to mount anything resembling a good defence.

It's been, what, less than 2 minutes since Miko mentioned the approaching army? I think Hinjo can spend a few more rounds, even a few more turns, without it making any difference in the outcome of the battle. The army is "less than a day's march away" which probably means somewhere in the area of 12-20 hours (more than 20 hours you'd probably "a day" and less than 12 you'd say "half a day" and the guards on watch duty would soon be able to spot them anyway). I don't think the time wasted in this scene will make a huge difference, Hinjo will probably come to his senses, remember his duty and put aside his grief in within a few minutes.



I doubt that Azure City will be obliterated, though it will be damaged. The hobgoblins have been on a forced march for days, and will be tired. Most likely they will not attack immediately, but will instead set up a camp, dig latrines, and whatnot. A huge mobile army like that has to worry about supply lines, fatigue, moral, hygiene and disease. Xykon and Redcloak don't care about hobgoblin fatalities per se, but they probably don't want their live soldiers to be suffering massive combat penalties because they are all fatigued, malnourished, discouraged and suffering from dissintry. Sure, you can convert them to zombies as they fall, but there's a limit to how many undead you can create in a day, and zombies will be vulnerable to turning by the city's Paladins and Clerics.

Xykon isn't really interested in capturing and ruling Azure City, he'd do it if it came up, but it isn't a major goal for him. Destroying Azure City isn't his goal either, though he wouldn't actually mind if it happened. All Xykon really cares about is finding, capturing and securing the Gate. Meeting his goal will probably require destroying most of Azure City's armed forces, but the peasants, merchants and fishermen are no threat to him and are mostly beneath his notice. If the Gate is destroyed or is completely inaccessible to him, then he'll most likely simply move on, and ignore the many thousands of surviving peasants.


Somebody might decide that destroying the Gate is the best way to stop Xykon. Destroy the gate and he can't use it for great Evil. Destroy the Gate and he has no reason to hang around Azure City. Oh, sure, we're that much closer to destroying the entire plane of existence too, but that's not my problem. :smalltongue:

[Alfryd]

The army is "less than a day's march away" which probably means somewhere in the area of 12-20 hours (more than 20 hours you'd probably "a day" and less than 12 you'd say "half a day" and the guards on watch duty would soon be able to spot them anyway).
You're forgetting that Xykon intended to force-march the army, so they'll be arriving distinctly sooner than Miko anticipated, (though how in the nine circles of hell they managed to outpace a cavalry unit going full tilt over matching terrain and interval beats me.
They basically can't.)

So:

Pro Defenders:
Strong fortifications.
Enemy troops are exhausted.
Several moderately high-level heroes.
Slight numerical advantage?

Pro Assailants:
Training, equipment and discipline.
A few higher-level villains.
Siege weaponry and creatures.
Enemy command structure is shaken.
Element of surprise.

[Swordguy]

The question thus becomes how large is the defending force? Again, I don't think we can reasonably estimate it's power (a very few magic-users will herald a vast increase in combat striking power), but we can reasonably estimate the numbers.

There are roughly 500,000 people in Azure City. We don't know if this includes the immediate surrounding area, or is everyone who is within the castle walls. Due to lack of data, we must assume 500,000 is the correct number.

How many people are of age to fight? Looking at various third world age pyramids, it seems that roughly 1/3rd of the population is 15 or below at a given time. As the data I'm looking at is for countries with birthrates historically somewhat higher than that of Medieval Europe, I'll drop the percentage to 25%. So, right off the bat, 125,000 people are removed from fighting numbers. Another 10-15% will be to old or infirm to fight. Give Azure City as much of a chance as possible, we'll say it's only 10%, eliminating 50,000 people (total: 175,000 people eliminated).

In D&D, gender has no bearing, and as we have absolutely no way to quantify it, we'll ignore pregnancies as a disqualifier.

We have 325,000 people who can fight (incidently, this is equal to your working population).

Of your working population, you have to have an economy. Unfortunately, this will eat up most of your people. Percentages vary in terms of numbers of soldiers in a working population. I think the closest modern day equivalent would be North Korea, in terms of maintaining (barely) a subsistence economy and having a massive military. It has a 2006 working population of approximatly 15,600,000 (24 million total, 65% are working population). In 2006, the US State Department estimated that the nation employs 1.08 million of its people as soldiers (all branches and specialties of the NK military). This is 6.9% of the population (the highest percentage in the world today).

Using these numbers for Azure City, 6.9% of its working population of 325,000 people is 22,425 soldiers. Note that this would include all support services for the actual fighting soldiers (in medieval Europe, roughly 1:1, meaning that half of that number are actually support roles). So, we've arrived at a number of roughly 11,200 fighting soldiers for Azure City, meaning that Xykon certainly outnumbers them. Again, in terms of raw fighting power, the scale can swing wildly depending on number and level of casters (I'm positive that there are some mid-level hobgoblin shamans in that army).

Please note, I did not use age demographics for Japan. Japan has always had an artificially low birthrate due to resource deprivation and tacit societal controls. This resource deprivation doesn't seem to apply in areas of A) magic, and B)a world like Europe.

[Alfryd]

Using these numbers for Azure City, 6.9% of its working population of 325,000 people is 22,425 soldiers.
You're forgetting that a lot of the citzenry can, and in all likelihood will, be drafted. (Assuming that they can be armed or proficient with anything more useful than kitchen knives.) There simply won't, in all likelihood, be much time for it.

[Swordguy]

No, I'm really not forgetting them. They simply don't appreciably matter to the outcome of the battle. Really, unarmored, lvl 1-3 commoners with steak knives? How hard is that to counter? Why wasn't it successfully ever done in history?

Now people who have previously served and are called back to duty may have something going for them. We have no possible way of quantifying them though, so I left them off the numbers list. My post is a starting point for discussion, not the Absolute Embodiment of Correctness.

I stand by the fact that it's more right than not, though.

[Greebo]

No, I'm really not forgetting them. They simply don't appreciably matter to the outcome of the battle. Really, unarmored, lvl 1-3 commoners with steak knives? How hard is that to counter? Why wasn't it successfully ever done in history?
Well, it could be against level 1-3 hobgoblins with crappy swords. Boney boy doesn't care how many of them die, as long as its fun to watch and he's not losing. :)

[Swordguy]

Well, it could be against level 1-3 hobgoblins with crappy swords. Boney boy doesn't care how many of them die, as long as its fun to watch and he's not losing. :)

1-3rd lvl warriors with "crappy swords". In armor. In a disciplined army (hobs are lawful and fight in an organized manner (from MM)).

Townsfolk are 1-3 level commoners or experts. With steak knives. With no armor (not enough availible). In a disorganized mob (maybe lawful, but no military training).

You know, you're right. The Townsfolk are clearly better off. :smallwink:

[Alfryd]

We have no idea what kind of level the hobgoblins are, though if they actually have any degree of *training*, it has to be level 2-4. And again, I'm assuming Azure City has some kind of people's militia, where they can pass around extra arms and armour (besides, it would actually be normal for many commoners to have some basic weaponry in medieval times, though less so in an oriental setting.)

And, of course, there's the whole 10:1 superiority you normally need for siege warfare. Plus, discipline amounts for relatively little when you're fighting in rat-runs under the walls or trying to pour your troops 2-abreast through a breach in the wall. Courage does. These people are free citizens defending their homes. The aggressors are under a military autocracy ruling without active consent...
Actually, strike that comparison.
...far from home under a rather brutal usurper. There.

If things get dragged out to the second or third day, Xykon will have a much harder time of it.

[Swordguy]

We have no idea what kind of level the hobgoblins are, though if they actually have any degree of *training*, it has to be level 2-4. And again, I'm assuming they have some kind of people's militia, where they can pass around extra arms and armour (besides, it would actually be normal for many commoners to have some basic weaponry in medieval times, though less so in an oriental setting.)

I'm sure they have a militia, and I'm sure that they have spare weapons and armor. I'm just as sure that they don't have enough to make a meaningful diffrence. Commoners are proficient in one simple weapon of thier choice (usually connected to thier profession). They have a d4 HD, and no Con bonus. They will have an AC of, perhaps, a 12 (if they can find some leathers). They will be lower level commoners, as they gain XP just like adventurers do, and as the DMG says, there is less potential XP in a well-guarded city.

The hobgoblins will have a d8 HD, a Con AND Dex bonus, and a good AC (studded + shields) of around 15, and a fighter's BAB. More to the point, they will be higher level than the commoners they face, simply because they live out in the dangerous wilds and fight (thus gaining XP) for a living. The DMG summarizes: "Note that dangerous areas are more likely to produce high-level NPCs than peaceful, settled lands."

I'd estimate the average commoner to be 1st lvl (4 hp), with an AC of 11 (no dex, Hide armor), a steak knife or improvised weapon (1d3 damage, -4 attack penalty), and a total melee attack bonus of +0 (lvl 1, no Str).

The hobgoblin should average out to about 2nd level (though 1:10 is a 3rd lvl lieutenant (MM1)). They have 14 hp, an AC of 15, a longsword (1d8 damage, no attack penalty), and a total melee attack bonus of +2. They also employ ranged attacks, largely with javelins.

What's more, the Hobgoblins are organized. Never underestimate that value.

Crunching numbers, I'd say 1 hobgoblin is worth at least 7 commoners (because the difference in respective attack bonus and AC is so large), and even more if the commoners are using improvised weapons.




And, of course, there's the whole 10:1 superiority you normally need for siege warfare.

Yeah...about that. It's not sheer numbers of troops. It's Combat Power that you need a 10:1 advantage in during a seige. Assume 1 wizard has the combat power of 10 fighters. So if I've got 20 wizards, and you have 100 fighters, the odds are actually 200:100 in MY favor. Without knowing the relative strengths of the specialty troops availible to both sides (how many 1st lvl paladins is that undead dragon worth?), that argument is utterly pointless.

[SPoD]

The aggressors are under a military autocracy ruling without active consent...
Actually, strike that comparison.
...far from home under a rather brutal usurper. There.

And Azure City has had its ruler of 47 years replaced overnight, probably with no explanation to the public (since they're not allowed to know about the gates). I would call that even on both sides.

Actually, since the hobgoblins are hobgoblins, being "far from home" and under a "military autocracy" is probably fine with them. They're not humans, they enjoy a military lifestyle--Redcloak even says so in the first strip with the hobgoblins. You can't ascribe real-world morale concerns to them that might not apply due to their nonhuman psychology. These are beings who are "usually evil", after all.

So in the morale battle, I would say Azure City has it a lot worse than the hobgobs.

[Solara]

No, I'm really not forgetting them. They simply don't appreciably matter to the outcome of the battle. Really, unarmored, lvl 1-3 commoners with steak knives? How hard is that to counter? Why wasn't it successfully ever done in history?

I don't think the commoners will be much of a problem either - though to be fair they would definitely be something to worry about in a RL invasion. (Wasn't avoiding a situation like that part of the reason the U.S dropped the bomb on Japan, after all?)

I think it'd be reasonable to assume that a strongly Lawful city might have a larger than average military, not to mention the Sapphire Guard, though I'm not sure of the numbers there. I agree with whoever suggested that wizards and some of the nobles personal guards might be able to make a difference (mainly the wizards) and you also have to factor in that Azure City is an important seaport and probably one of the biggest cities in the area. In addition to the actual citizens there are likely to be a lot of travellers, merchant ships with their own personal guards, etc. (And let's not forget the bands of adventurers hanging out in all the taverns. :smallwink: )

IMO there's no real point in boiling everything down to numbers and statistics anyway, because in the end it all comes down to the plot...but I guess it's always fun to speculate. :)

Just going by plot alone, I'm thinking Azure City will be damaged, but not actually destroyed. As another poster already stated, Xykon's there after the Gate - killing paladins and generally wreaking mayhem is not the goal, just a fun bonus. Once this Gate is rendered unusable he won't waste any time in moving on to the next.

EDIT: Forgot to mention, one thing that's likely to be in Azure City's defense is the fact that there's probably a larger than average percentage of the population with Monk levels. In that case the lack of arms or armor wouldn't be a problem.

I have nothing to back this up with but how could there not be a scene where an old peasant guy gets cornered and then goes all Miyagi on some undead ass?

[Ampersand]

Let's not forget that the most powerful wizard in Azure City is currently a heap of partially digested bones. That's a big favor for the attackers.

[Lord Zentei]

Let's not forget that the most powerful wizard in Azure City is currently a heap of partially digested bones. That's a big favor for the attackers.

Yes, but he was about to be ressurected.

[Ampersand]

Yes, but he was about to be ressurected.
Circumstances may still alter that plan.

Even though Azure City is prosperous, there's still a limit to how many diamonds they have on hand. 5 -10,000 gp worth of diamonds a pop isn't cheap, and they did just bring back the guard Belkar killed too. Hinjo might order them to try and bring someone else back at this point, as well.

[MReav]

Let's not forget that the most powerful wizard in Azure City is currently a heap of partially digested bones. That's a big favor for the attackers.

I got the idea that he wasn't that big (the honour of most powerful would be Shojo's personal Wizard, an older bearded guy).

[Lord Zentei]

Circumstances may still alter that plan.

Even though Azure City is prosperous, there's still a limit to how many diamonds they have on hand. 5 -10,000 gp worth of diamonds a pop isn't cheap, and they did just bring back the guard Belkar killed too. Hinjo might order them to try and bring someone else back at this point, as well.

We know for a fact that they have 10000 gp worth of diamonds, since the spell was already being prepared. Anyway, by someone else you are no doubt referring to Shojo?

Ressurection requires 10000 gp worth of diamonds, raise dead requires 5000 gp. Since Shojo has died within the last <level of cleric> days, he would require only the latter, and that would increase the overall diamond expenses by 50%.

Not a given that they have that much, of course, but Azure city is the main trading port in the southern lands with a population of half a million - really I suspect that it should be possible to scrounge up another 5000 gp worth of diamonds.

[Ampersand]

I got the idea that he wasn't that big (the honour of most powerful would be Shojo's personal Wizard, an older bearded guy).

Hmm...I thought that guy was Shojo's personal wizard. I could be wrong about that, though. I do know that Shojo refered to him as a member of his personal staff...

At any rate, given that he could cast a Teleport, I'd say that he was no slouch.


Anyway, by someone else you are no doubt referring to Shojo?

Indeed.


Ressurection requires 10000 gp worth of diamonds, raise dead requires 5000 gp. Since Shojo has died within the last <level of cleric> days, he would require only the latter, and that would increase the overall diamond expenses by 50%.

Not a given that they have that much, of course, but Azure city is the main trading port in the southern lands with a population of half a million - really I suspect that it should be possible to scrounge up another 5000 gp worth of diamonds.

I'm not doubting that, under normal circumstances, they could get it. I'm just wondering how many diamonds the Sapphire Guard keeps on hand...that's an awful lot of money that's sitting around in an otherwise unusable form for a "just in case" fund. It did take them some time to get the components to bring Shojo's wizard back in the first place, and the city will likely be blockcaded in fairly short order...

[ravenkith]

Yes...


A DUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HH.

[Lord Zentei]

I'm not doubting that, under normal circumstances, they could get it. I'm just wondering how many diamonds the Sapphire Guard keeps on hand...that's an awful lot of money that's sitting around in an otherwise unusable form for a "just in case" fund.

If the Sapphire Guard does not keep enough diamonds, the City coffers might. And there are traders and aristos in the city who could be given an "eminent domain" order in defence of the city.


It did take them some time to get the components to bring Shojo's wizard back in the first place, and the city will likely be blockcaded in fairly short order...

It did? I got the impression that it was only one night, and partially for Shojo to make Roy stew a little. Though of course, the clerics need not have Ressurection memorized all the time of course...

[Alfryd]

The DMG summarizes: "Note that dangerous areas are more likely to produce high-level NPCs than peaceful, settled lands."
The Hobgoblin City looked pretty darned settled to me.

Without knowing the relative strengths of the specialty troops availible to both sides (how many 1st lvl paladins is that undead dragon worth?), that argument is utterly pointless.
Uh, not really, since it means the Hobgoblins will need to be, on average about 10 times more powerful than the individual troops they're arrayed against, which, I'm sorry, I don't really see happening.

I'm just as sure that they don't have enough to make a meaningful diffrence.
Why?

Besides, the fact remains, you've pegged Azure City's trained military defenders alone at 11,200, and we have no reason whatsoever to suppose these would be worse-armed and trained. Add to that THREE-HUNDRED-THOUSAND people who can fight. A least a couple of them will be level 3, with actual weapons worth a damn, and actual armour, so let's be conservative and add, say, 10,000 auxiliaries/draftees/militia/mercs capable of at least influencing the engagement. Now the goblins have no significant numerical or qualitative advantage.

But actually, I don't think any of this matters. As has been pointed out, plot determines the outcome of the battle, and Rich has been taking great pains to foreshadow dire tidings for Azure City.

[Green Bean]

Remember, the Hobgoblin Supreme Leader (who in a military society is likely the most powerful warrior) was obviously weaker than Redcloak. The hobgoblins probably don't have too many powerful specialty troops.

[Darkuwa]

It really depends how many dots the heros have in war. If one has 5 dots in war and essence 5 his troops would kick major ass versus even 10x more soldiers.

[Demented]

25,000 level 1 Hobgoblin warriors. CR 1/2 per.
Along with an unknown number of ghouls, ghasts, zombies, catapults, flying zombies, and a single zombie dragon.

Not strictly doomed. Though, a level 20 Lich Sorceror is more than capable of turning the tide.

[Silverlocke980]

They claimed to have a million troops; that's not to say they did. I have heard estimates into six figures, though.
[/off topic]



Xykon and his zombified dragon.

On estimating the size of Xykon's forces: Linka (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0197.html).

Assuming that the legions are, on average, roughly the same size as Legion #1, that means about 26000 hobgoblins.


That is a whole lot of hobgoblins to kill.

Actually, add 1 hobgoblin for the leader Redcloak killed.... so, 26080 goblins, Xykon, Redcloak, the Monster in the Darkness, some demon cockroaches, some zombie Good monsters, and a zombie dragon.

You know, I think I'll repeat what I just said.

That's a whole lot of stuff to kill... again...

Though going against paladins with the undead maybe ain't the brightest idea in the world.

[Angela Christine]

I say that destroying the Gate is the way to go. That should get rid of the Lich with only minor damage to the city.

Then the smarty pants in Azure city should get busy re-researching the way to build the Gates, preferably a new and improved type of Gate that isn't so irresistible to Liches. Presumably when a gate is destroyed the Rift is left behind. If destroying the Gate also destroyed the Rift, then destroying all the Gates would be a good thing. The Rifts in Liran's charred forest and Durokan's damaged dungeon need to be re-sealed with Gates as soon as possible, to prevent those Rifts from growing. Re-sealing 3 gates shouldn't be much harder than re-sealing 2.

Xykon would still need to be dealt with, but it would reduce the immediacy of the situation.