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View Full Version : Slightly morbid prediction regarding Flight 370



Bulldog Psion
2014-03-12, 03:55 PM
First off, I'm not looking to start any kind of political discussion here, assuming that any political capital is to be found in the Flight 370 story. I'm not sure there is, but if there is, please observe the forum rules and don't bring it in.

With that said, I have a prediction to make about this appalling tragedy. Everyone is wondering why they can't find the thing, even with people scanning satellite photos by the tens of thousands and so on.

My theory is that Michael Jerome McKay, on the oil rig off Vietnam, did indeed see Flight 370 burning in the distant sky. The coordinates he gave intersected with the actual flight path off the southern tip of Vietnam.

His account also provides an explanation of why they can't find the aircraft, IMO. He reported it was burning visibly for 10 to 15 seconds up in the sky, which indicates something unusual happened.

I suspect it broke up at high altitude, probably at 35,000 feet or a little lower. At that height, if it started disintegrating, it would presumably really disintegrate, and the pieces would be hurled over a vast area. There wouldn't be a "wreck" to find -- there would be bits and pieces, separated from each other by hundreds or thousands of feet, sinking individually into the ocean.

The reason it seems to have vanished is that it's actually about where that guy saw it, but the pieces are small enough and distributed widely enough so that satellite photos and airplane reconnaissance show nothing. If it had crashed more or less intact, it would probably already have been spotted. But if it burned, exploded, and disintegrated at a great height, the pieces would fan out like shotgun pellets.

I hope I'm wrong, and the people are actually okay somewhere after a desperate water landing off an uninhabited coast, or something. But my gut prediction is that it came apart into many pieces and spread over a large area in the sea just south of Vietnam, in a scattershot manner.

Togath
2014-03-12, 07:46 PM
Planes are sturdy, there's been planes that lost the entire cabin roof(including once from explosives), or all of their electronics and have landed just fine.
Disintegration is extraordinary unlikely, and there have not been any cases of it, as far as I know.
In short: planes are safer and sturdier than people think.
Also(no offense meant)I've also never heard of this "tragedy"... Are you sure it wasn't some tabloid website/newspaper, or something like fox news or the New York times(which are renowned for not looking up the source for their stories the past few years)? If it was meant as an entertaining story, it could explain the "mysterious" disappearance of it.

Tebryn
2014-03-12, 07:52 PM
Planes are sturdy, there's been planes that lost the entire cabin roof(including once from explosives), or all of their electronics and have landed just fine.
Disintegration is extraordinary unlikely, and there have not been any cases of it, as far as I know.
In short: planes are safer and sturdier than people think.
Also(no offense meant)I've also never heard of this "tragedy" anyway... Are you sure it wasn't some tabloid website/newspaper, or something like fox news or the New York times(which are renowned for not looking up the source for their stories the past few years)? If it was meant as an entertaining story, it could explain the "mysterious" disappearance of it.

Are you asking if the Flight 370 Disappearance isn't some...slip up in a newspaper?

Togath
2014-03-12, 07:57 PM
Are you asking if the Flight 370 Disappearance isn't some...slip up in a newspaper?

Yes... Though now that you've mentioned it as well.. Am I just that far out of the loop?(I might be.. I can't remember the last time I read a newspaper or newssite, etc. And I don't have a facebook/twitter/etc. account.)

Tebryn
2014-03-12, 08:15 PM
Yes... Though now that you've mentioned it as well.. Am I just that far out of the loop?(I might be.. I can't remember the last time I read a newspaper or newssite, etc. And I don't have a facebook/twitter/etc. account.)

Not to be rude but I'd suggest if you haven't picked up a news paper or went to a news website in recent memory you shouldn't accuse a story as being tabloid sensationalism. Especially when you are clearly on the internet and can easily google (http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Flight+370) the (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370) information (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/12/missing-malaysia-airlines-satellite-images_n_4951966.html) yourself (http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/12/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1).


As for the OP...wild and baseless speculation isn't really something that's needed.

Heliomance
2014-03-12, 08:15 PM
It's been on the news here in England quite a bit over the past few days. It's a real thing.

Iruka
2014-03-12, 08:20 PM
Yes... Though now that you've mentioned it as well.. Am I just that far out of the loop?(I might be.. I can't remember the last time I read a newspaper or newssite, etc. And I don't have a facebook/twitter/etc. account.)

Yes, you are that far out of the loop. a Q&A by the NY Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/11/world/asia/q-and-a-on-the-disappearance-of-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370.html?_r=0) about Flight 370.

Catching up with the news once a day or so would be a good idea. :smallwink:

Bulldog Psion
2014-03-12, 08:38 PM
As for the OP...wild and baseless speculation isn't really something that's needed.

Sorry, I'm not quite sure how saying "maybe it really isn't all that mysterious after all, maybe the plane is right where that guy saw something burning up in the sky, just they can't spot the wreck because it broke up into pieces" is either "wild" or "baseless." Seems a lot more down-to-earth and reasonable than a lot of the theories bouncing around right now. :smallconfused: But, as ever, YMMV.

Now, the "black hole iPhone app" conspiracy theory -- that is wild and baseless speculation. :smallwink: And quite the most bizarre thing I've heard in a long time.

Togath
2014-03-12, 08:40 PM
It's been on the news here in England quite a bit over the past few days. It's a real thing.


Huh. Apologies for my ignorance there:smallredface:.
I think the last time I read up on news was around 2004 or 2005...
I may start at least scanning the news then, so I don't sound like an idiot by saying "but I've never heard of X".:smallsmile:

Tebryn
2014-03-12, 08:42 PM
Sorry, I'm not quite sure how saying "maybe it really isn't all that mysterious after all, maybe the plane is right where that guy saw something burning up in the sky, just they can't spot the wreck because it broke up into pieces" is either "wild" or "baseless." Seems a lot more down-to-earth and reasonable than a lot of the theories bouncing around right now. :smallconfused: But, as ever, YMMV.

Now, the "black hole iPhone app" conspiracy theory -- that is wild and baseless speculation. :smallwink: And quite the most bizarre thing I've heard in a long time.

Unless you've got actual evidence it's all wild and baseless speculation.


Huh. Apologies for my ignorance there:smallredface:.
I think the last time I read up on news was around 2004 or 2005...
I may start at least scanning the news then, so I don't sound like an idiot by saying "but I've never heard of X".:smallsmile:

Probably a good idea. :smalltongue:

Aedilred
2014-03-12, 10:36 PM
Huh. Apologies for my ignorance there:smallredface:.
I think the last time I read up on news was around 2004 or 2005...
So if you fell into a coma, when you woke up, the traditional questions "Where am I? What year is it? Who's the President?" probably wouldn't be much use to you, I'm guessing. :smalltongue:

Actually, this is a feature I'm starting to notice increasingly in modern society, even in myself - disconnection from the wider world, even, perhaps especially among intelligent, otherwise interested people. Now that I can select my own entertainment online, I don't watch TV, so I don't catch the news there. If I wear headphones on the train, I don't overhear anyone talking, and if I take a book I won't read the free papers. The only way I'm going to become aware of a news story is if I actively go looking for it (and many newspaper sites now have paywalls, which discourages that) or if someone brings it to my attention on social media. I get a newspaper once a week and that's actually about the limit of my "passive" interaction with the news.

A brave new world indeed.

Togath
2014-03-12, 10:41 PM
So if you fell into a coma, when you woke up, the traditional questions "Where am I? What year is it? Who's the President?" probably wouldn't be much use to you, I'm guessing.

I keep up enough to know those sorts of things :smalltongue:
My main issues is remembering to check on lesser events.



Actually, this is a feature I'm starting to notice increasingly in modern society, even in myself - disconnection from the wider world, even, perhaps especially among intelligent, otherwise interested people. Now that I can select my own entertainment online, I don't watch TV, so I don't catch the news there. If I wear headphones on the train, I don't overhear anyone talking, and if I take a book I won't read the free papers. The only way I'm going to become aware of a news story is if I actively go looking for it (and many newspaper sites now have paywalls, which discourages that) or if someone brings it to my attention on social media. I get a newspaper once a week and that's actually about the limit of my "passive" interaction with the news.

This pretty much, I usually just watch things on YouTube, Netflix, or Crunchyroll, and live in an area where there isn't much public transport, so I only tend to encounter people while I'm already doing something.

TuggyNE
2014-03-13, 05:58 AM
Huh. Apologies for my ignorance there:smallredface:.
I think the last time I read up on news was around 2004 or 2005...
I may start at least scanning the news then, so I don't sound like an idiot by saying "but I've never heard of X".:smallsmile:

I was in approximately the same boat, with the sole exception that I overheard family members saying something about a missing plane the last few days, so I did know it was current events.

JeenLeen
2014-03-13, 10:26 AM
To OP: such sounds possible. It might be unlikely, but if the tech used to find the plane wouldn't detect small pieces, it might be overlooking them. (I also don't follow the news, so I don't know much about it. Think I heard of it before today.)

To general discussion on news: in one of Scott Adams' Dilbert books (actual books, not collection of comics), he writes about actively avoiding the news, since most of it is depressing and/or not relevant to one's daily life; if something big enough to impact you is happening, you'll hear about it from people you know who do follow news. It occurred to him after he mentioned the Unabomber to a co-worker and she had no clue what he was talking about. I don't actively avoid the news, but I don't seek it, either.

I reckon this would fail is nobody followed the news, since nobody could tell you about things. But unless something impacts the 50 miles around my house (or majorly disrupts the country I live in, I guess; if it was invaded, that would impact me even if the other side of the country was the one targeted), it doesn't really impact me directly.

(I can say that there are possibly good reasons to know about the news, such as for human connection and empathy. But if it's just used as entertainment (what celebrities are up to) or to cause fear/anxiety (earthquake; disease; war; etc.), then knowing doesn't really do me any good, and me not knowing doesn't hurt anything.)

Finlam
2014-03-13, 10:56 AM
@OP: I don't think blackboxes disintegrate. Also, the blackbox beacon has a solid 20+ more days of power before it can longer transmit. If the plane had disintegrated in a known area, even a wide area, the box would have been found by now.

Asta Kask
2014-03-13, 11:15 AM
@OP: I don't think blackboxes disintegrate. Also, the blackbox beacon has a solid 20+ more days of power before it can longer transmit. If the plane had disintegrated in a known area, even a wide area, the box would have been found by now.

According to a pilot on another forum, the circle is something like 2500 miles wide. That's a lot.

Bulldog Psion
2014-03-13, 12:54 PM
@OP: I don't think blackboxes disintegrate. Also, the blackbox beacon has a solid 20+ more days of power before it can longer transmit. If the plane had disintegrated in a known area, even a wide area, the box would have been found by now.

Never assumed the black boxes disintegrated. I was merely pointing out that they're looking for a big one-piece wreck, whereas if broke up at high altitude into relatively small pieces -- note that I mean barn-door size here, not dust -- that it would be very difficult to visually spot the crash site just by flying over the ocean. Especially with the pieces spread over a large area.

However, it looks like I'm totally wrong anyway, since it looks like it's in the Indian Ocean.

Asta Kask
2014-03-13, 01:00 PM
http://regretfulmorning.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/im-not-saying-it-was-aliens.jpg

Tyndmyr
2014-03-13, 01:25 PM
According to a pilot on another forum, the circle is something like 2500 miles wide. That's a lot.

Depends on location. Extremely mountainous areas or deep ocean areas can greatly reduce that. IIRC, 20k of water puts it to something like a 10 mile area in which the sonar pings can be detected. Maybe less if there's sand, silt, or debris on/around it.

Disintigration of the black box seems unlikely, and they usually get found eventually, but there have been times before where it takes a bit because of complicating factors. Over a year in one french case, IIRC.

Togath
2014-03-13, 01:45 PM
To general discussion on news: in one of Scott Adams' Dilbert books (actual books, not collection of comics), he writes about actively avoiding the news, since most of it is depressing and/or not relevant to one's daily life; if something big enough to impact you is happening, you'll hear about it from people you know who do follow news. It occurred to him after he mentioned the Unabomber to a co-worker and she had no clue what he was talking about. I don't actively avoid the news, but I don't seek it, either.

I reckon this would fail is nobody followed the news, since nobody could tell you about things. But unless something impacts the 50 miles around my house (or majorly disrupts the country I live in, I guess; if it was invaded, that would impact me even if the other side of the country was the one targeted), it doesn't really impact me directly.

(I can say that there are possibly good reasons to know about the news, such as for human connection and empathy. But if it's just used as entertainment (what celebrities are up to) or to cause fear/anxiety (earthquake; disease; war; etc.), then knowing doesn't really do me any good, and me not knowing doesn't hurt anything.)

This is why I avoid news, wasn't sure if anyone else avoided it for that reason as well:smallsmile:

Asta Kask
2014-03-13, 01:50 PM
Depends on location. Extremely mountainous areas or deep ocean areas can greatly reduce that. IIRC, 20k of water puts it to something like a 10 mile area in which the sonar pings can be detected. Maybe less if there's sand, silt, or debris on/around it.

Disintigration of the black box seems unlikely, and they usually get found eventually, but there have been times before where it takes a bit because of complicating factors. Over a year in one french case, IIRC.

It wasn't based on that. The exact quote was:


It is looking likely based on a WSJ that the aircraft continued to transmit engine data for 4 hours after the loss of transponder signal. That basically makes the 'circle' you have to search about 2500 miles in radius....

Chen
2014-03-13, 02:26 PM
Except that 4 hour quote got denied by the Malaysian authorities and such. The amount of misinformation in these news articles is getting really bad now. Journalists are in such a rush to be first to the story that it seems fact checking is going right out the window. It's particularly bad for this event, where pretty much every article about new developments are soundly rebutted a couple hours (if that) later.

Grif
2014-03-15, 05:07 AM
Huh. Surprised to find a thread here.

In case anyone missed it, the transcript of PM Najib on this:


Based on new satellite communication, we can say with a high degree of certainty, that the aircraft communications addressing and resorting system, or ACARS, was disabled just before the aircraft reached the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Shortly afterwards, near the border between Malaysia and Vietnamese air traffic control, the aircraft transponder was switched off. From this point onwards, the Royal Malaysian Airforce primary radar shows that an aircraft which was believed - but not confirmed - to be MH370 did indeed turn back. It then flew in a westerly direction, back over peninsular Malaysia, before turning north-west, up until the point at which it left military primary radar coverage, these movements are consistent with deliberate action by someone on the plane. Today, based on raw satellite data which was obtained from the satellite data service provider, we can confirm that the aircraft shown in the primary radar data was flight MH370.

After much forensic work and deliberation, the FAA, NTSB, AAIB and Malaysian authorities working (something, video glitched/sound cut out [EDIT: "separately"]) on the same data concur. According to the new data, the last confirmed communication between the plane and the satellite was at 8:11 AM Malaysian time, on Saturday the 8th of March. The investigation team is making further calculations, which will indicate how far the aircraft may have flown after the last point of contact. This will help us to refine the search. Due to the type of satellite data, we are unable to confirm the precise location of the plane when it last made contact with a satellite. However, based on this new data, the aviation authorities from Malaysia and their international counterparts have determined that the plane's last communication with a satellite was in 1 or 2 possible corridors: the northern corridor, stretching approximately from the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to northern Thailand, or the southern corridor stretching approximately from Indonesia to the Southern Indian ocean. The investigation team is working to further refine the information.

In view of this latest development, the Malaysian authorities have refocused the investigation into the crew and passengers on board...despite media reports that the plane was hijacked, I wish to be very clear - we are still investigating all possibilities as to what caused MH370 to deviate from this original flight path.

(emphasis mine)

Killer Angel
2014-03-18, 07:10 AM
yep, in this affair, things are far more complicated and mysterious than what it could have been supposed