Dethy Tournament--Heat Three in progress!--Still Recruiting!

[Zjoot]

Welcome to the Playground's first (as far as I'm aware) Mafia tourney!

For this tournament we're going to play Dethy, because of it's small player size and quick playtime.

If you don't know what Dethy is, I've copied the rules directly from a previous game of it, because typing things out yourself is overrated!

Rules:

The stuff at WW Central (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?t=169067)
All Cops begin the game with a 'scoop' of a random other player, telling the cop what they'd scry the other player as. The Mafia learns what roles have scooped him, as if he had used his watch his back ability.
The game begins in Day
Day ends when a majority of living players vote to lynch another living player--if you put the killing blow onto somebody and end the day, please point it out in your post (as per Sapo's suggestion)-- or after 72 hours, when the lynch will be decided randomly. Not lynching is not an option. You can choose to have your vote not count for the purpose of ending day for the first 48 hours by specifying that it is a deadline vote. After 48 hours, deadline votes will be counted as normal votes.
Night ends when all actions are in, with a 48 hour deadline. No-killing is not an option, if necessary the kill will be decided randomly.
Roles are not revealed upon death
No PMs

Roles:
All roles have a scry action at night. The Mafia's goal is to eliminate the Cops, and the Cops' goal is to lynch the Mafia. Cops are not told which Cop they are, only that they are a Cop.

Mafia: He must nightkill a player every night. He may:

Scry: Determine the exact role of target player OR
Watch his back: Find out what roles (not players) scried him that night (if any).

Sane Cop: He scies people accurately
Insane Cop: He scries people as Innocent when Guilty and as Guilty when Innocent
Naive Cop: He scries everybody as Innocent
Paranoid Cop: He scries everybody as Guilty


If any of this is unclear, please just ask. :smallsmile:

Now that you've read the rules, I'm looking for 25 players for the tournament. The tourney will run in five heats of five (determined by sign-up order) If the mafia wins, that player advances to the finals. If the cops win, the players have to vote on who among the cops was the MVP of the game, and this player will continue to the finals. Vote honestly for the player you think truly contributed most to the win. If this is you, then vote for yourself, but do not do so simply because you want to play in the finals. If all goes well there may be more tournaments in the future with a chance for you to play in those.

**An important note before you sign up: This is intended to be a more competitive game than the normal games here. A high level of commitment is expected. Please do not join if you do not think you can actively affect the game--this doesn't mean you have to be some kind of werewolf savant, just that you will participate throughout**

And of course the most important thing is that you enjoy yourself and have a good time!

With that said, let the sign ups begin!


Heat one
1. Duck999--Paranoid Cop
2. Disc Lorde--Insane Cop
3. DukeGod--Sane Cop
4. Aventine--Mafia
5. Tom the Mime--Naive Cop--Winner!
---------------------
Heat two
6. Saposhiente--Naive Cop--Winner!
7. Lex Kat--Sane Cop
8. Aric Kale--Paranoid Cop
9. Random Person--Mafia
10. Doctor Whooves (Askthepizzaguy)--Insane Cop
---------------------
Heat three
11. TBFProgrammer
12.Count Dingdong
13. Studoku
14. Penguinator
15. reaverb
--------------------
16. Askthepizzaguy
17. The Fiery Tower
18. Tanar Aerdoth
19. Chessgeek
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

[Disc Lorde]

Sounds interesting. I have a few questions/comments.

Firstly, it seems off to me that dead cops are out of the running for advancing to the finals. Normally the goal in Mafia is to get your team to win, not to look out primarily for yourself. Also, this rule might result in the most skilled players not advancing to the finals, because they would prove their skill and then get killed night one.

Secondly, it seems that whether the mafia player wins a lot would depend a lot on the luck of the start-of-game scoops.

Finally, is roleplaying allowed?

[Zjoot]

To answer in reverse order, of course roleplaying is always allowed...I wan't planning on doing narrations to be honest, but if you guys come up with characters I'll do a few sentences for death narrations.

Secondly, yes, some chance might enter into it, but really I don't see it as a significant enough difference. The real trick of the game is not in actually using scry results but in figurin out who is lying about their scry results.

Thirdly, yes, very good point. I think that was my intention actually, but I wrote this at around midnight so there may be some mental lapses. I'll fix the rules so that the dead cops are also in the running.

[Duck999]

I'd like to play-IN.
Are there any QTs?

[Sabeki]

ooh, we're having a tourney! I better go polish my shield :smalltongue:
IN.

[Tris]

In! I like this set up.

[Disc Lorde]

Alrighty then, sounds fun. In.

Also, is Helgraf's scry interference in effect?

[Tom the Mime]

I'll play. I can afford a high level of commitment for my heat at least.


I'd like to play-IN.
Are there any QTs?

If you're asking for between players then no because the OP state no PMs. If you're asking regarding narrator-to-player QTs, there really isn't any point as a heat can only last three phases per heat. You only get 2 PMs from the narrator, one with your role and a random scry and one with your night 1 scry. For town it's all about openness, trying to determine what role distributions are actually possible with the given scries (and hence narrow down the hunt and decide the best N1 scries for narrowing it down further) or catch the mafia out if they claim a scry which can't be valid given the other information. For the mafia, it's all about subtle misdirection, sensible targeting and hope.

[Zjoot]

Tom the Mime is exactly right.


Alrighty then, sounds fun. In.

Also, is Helgraf's scry interference in effect?

And no on the scry interference, since there are only four possible scry targets on the first night and four people scrying, that would really mess things up.

Looks like we have enough for the first heat at least.

[Lex-Kat]

InInInIn!! Did I make the cut-off? :smalleek:

[Penguinator]

In! I need to redeem myself from last time.

[Saposhiente]

I'm back!
In other news, I propose that it become proper etiquette to announce in some manner when your vote is enough to end the day, i.e. when you "drop the hammer" on the player you're voting for. Would have saved a bunch of waiting around time last game.

[Aventine]

I will join this

[Saposhiente]

Secondly, it seems that whether the mafia player wins a lot would depend a lot on the luck of the start-of-game scoops.

Actually, this matters less than you think. The rule was added because even with random first scry, Town (if playing correctly) has a significantly higher chance of winning. (Sussing out the mafia is usually impossible regardless of scry targets; instead, you try to confirm people as innocent). Plus, the cops would normally have no information to base their choice upon; this just prevents scry coordination in some way that might be discovered to be better.

[Aric Kale]

Let's do this thing. I'm IN and ready to win.

[DoctorWhooves]

In.

Apparently I need ten characters to post. Here they are.

- - - Updated - - -


I'm back!
In other news, I propose that it become proper etiquette to announce in some manner when your vote is enough to end the day, i.e. when you "drop the hammer" on the player you're voting for. Would have saved a bunch of waiting around time last game.

I concur.

A simple "Vote" and "Stop" in the same post seems reasonable.

Ooh that's neat. Double posting merges into one post.

[Zjoot]

Awesome, more people! And I was just about to post in the Central thread begging for signups too. :smalltongue:

Actually, I may still do that anyways. If we can get 15 players, I'd like to go ahead and begin the first heat next week, with the hope that the remaining ten players filter in while the first three heats are in progress.

Also, I will edit the rules to reflect Sapo's suggestion. Thanks Sapo! It's good to have you. Still working on an analyzer program?

[Saposhiente]

Still working on an analyzer program?

http://d24w6bsrhbeh9d.cloudfront.net/photo/aPvpP1w_460sa.gif

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'm not "in", but, consider me as a potential recruit if you really cannot scrape together enough folks after the first heats.

I'll observe how things go and consider inning after that. Sound fair?

[Zjoot]

Sure, sounds fine to me. It may be a non-issue anyways. Penguinator has politely requested to be removed from the tournament which leaves us a an even ten players. I really do not think waiting will much improve the situation, as it really was a bit optimistic of me to expect we'd have twenty five whole players committed to a competitive style game. (Frankly after seeing the way this forum has treated those players in recent games I'm amazed we got ten that weren't all chased off, but that's another matter entirely that we shouldn't discuss here (I just needed to make some comment about it before it keeps stewing))

Aaaanyways :smallsmile: I'd like to go ahead and begin the game with your permission. We'll do the first two heats, and if five more players show up, we'll do the third, but we have ten players now, so we might as well begin. If we only end up doing these two, we can talk about still doing some sort of final round. If we decide to go for that, cool. If not, well that's two awesome games of Dethy, so win-win.

Alright, so let me know. If I don't hear any objections before, let's say Wednesday, I'll randomize the matchups and send out roles.

[DukeGod]

Cool. Certainly different from our usual WW game
I'll join

[Fortuna]

I don't think I'll be any good at this...

But is there any better way to learn than trying? In.

[Zjoot]

I know I said I'd start the game on Wednesday, but it turns out I am much busier with the show I am doing than I would like to be. It only leaves me a couple of hours a day for anything else. However, I should be able to run te first heat next week, with the possibility of delays on narration. I'll send roles tomorrow.

[Studoku]

Sign me up.

[Zjoot]

Yay, another signup!

The first heat (which has been randomly determined) will consist of Aventine, DukeGod, Duck999, Sabeki, and Tom the Mime
Roles and scoops are being sent now.
Day 1 will begin when everyone posts to confirm that they have received their roles and are ready to play.

[DukeGod]

Role received. Ready to play

[Tom the Mime]

Role received and reporting for duty.

[Duck999]

Role recieved.
Time to play some game.

[Aventine]

Received and ready

[Zjoot]

Since Sabeki hasn't responded, I rerolled his role and am giving it to Disc Lorde. As soon as Disc Lorde responds, we can begin.

[Disc Lorde]

Cool. Role received and ready.

[Zjoot]

Excellent, then we'll begin!

Heat 1 Day 1 will begin now and end in approximately 72 hours, or when 3 players are all voting for one other player.
Reminder that if you put the third vote onto somebody, you should point out the fact that that person is now dead. If you don't wish to administer a killing blow, please specify that your vote is a deadline vote by putting it in orange instead of the normal red.

Alright, happy hunting!

[Disc Lorde]

Alright, I think that we should wait until we're all online and reveal our scoops at once. That way the Mafioso won't have information to make up a good misleading lie.

[Duck999]

Alright, I think that we should wait until we're all online and reveal our scoops at once. That way the Mafioso won't have information to make up a good misleading lie.

That would work, except for one thing. They could make up a misleading lie with ease, even without other people saying their scoops. And, if they are wrong, they could just claim Insane/Paranoid/Naive cop. We can never tell who is lying. Everyone saying their scoop won't help, because we don't know who is wrong, and who is lying.
Edit: Also, if it doesn't bring out the Mafia. The Mafia will easily figure out who the Sane cop is, and kill them night 1. Then we have no leads anywhere.

[Disc Lorde]

RP:

Police chief Ed Rolcsid munched the Bear Claw that formed the last part of his breakfast. It tasted like cliché. He washed it down with coffee, then stared at the stack of paperwork on his desk and sighed. Sure, the promotion had its perks, but also its drawbacks. It had been weeks since he had seen any action. He sat around all day most days doing paperwork. Also, he was beginning to put on some pounds. Before starting into the pile, he checked his e-mail as always. Today, however, there was an unusual message from the Mafia Response Agency (MRA). He read it under his breath.

"We have received word of a Mafioso mole inside your organization. Recommend you resolve by any means necessary." Ed smiled a bit in spite of himself. He pulled out his old Smith and Wesson Model 36, the appropriately named "Chief's Special". He checked that it was operational. It was. "Finally some action."

- - - Updated - - -


That would work, except for one thing. They could make up a misleading lie with ease, even without other people saying their scoops. And, if they are wrong, they could just claim Insane/Paranoid/Naive cop. We can never tell who is lying. Everyone saying their scoop won't help, because we don't know who is wrong, and who is lying.
Edit: Also, if it doesn't bring out the Mafia. The Mafia will easily figure out who the Sane cop is, and kill them night 1. Then we have no leads anywhere.

We can make certain logical deductions. If I understand correctly, we know that we have exactly one of each type of cop. Do I have that right Zjoot? So, for example, if we get only one innocent result, we know for sure that the one with the innocent result is the Naïve Cop, and that the Sane Cop scried the Mafia. If the Mafia knows our results, he can choose his own claim so that we can't make these deductions. That's why my idea makes sense.

[Zjoot]

That is correct. There is only one of each cop.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, there was a mistake in the opening post. The day will last 72 hours and not 48.

[Duck999]

You are right, so that could work. When a cop dies are we told what cop he was?
On another note: Using percentage chance, there are probably 2 scoops on "mafia", and 2 on "cops". That would be saying the highest chance is for someone to get a scoop on a cop, since there are 4 cops and 1 mafia. The Naive cop would get an innocent automatically, and the sane cop has a 80% chance of getting a scoop on a cop. The paranoid cop automatically gets mafia, and the insane cop has a high chance of getting a scoop on a cop, making their result mafia. That would create 2 of each scoop. However, there is a chance that we get 3 and 1. If we do get 2 and 2, we might not have enough time to find out who is which cop.
I say we at least try to reveal our scoops. The only flaw I find is this: If we do not find the mafia, they have an advantage, knowing who is which cop. Wait, found a flaw in the flaw: If they night kill the sane cop night 1, then we know who the mafia is. How useful.:smallsmile:

[Disc Lorde]

Roles are not revealed on death. That's in the rules in the OP.

Revealing our scoops and reasoning out who is what role would help the Mafia a bit, yes. But it would help the cops a whole lot more. As I said before, I think we should all reveal our scoops at once when everyone's online.

[Tom the Mime]

There's no guarantee everyone is going to be online at the same time so I don't really think much of waiting for that to happen. It might stop deep analysis for a claim but there are ways of limiting that without waiting for something that could be a bit iffy with timezones.

The scry is broken up into 2 parts - a who and a what. In the past to prevent mafia from making a clever claim going last people have revealed scries piecewise. Everyone reveals their first bit of information and then after that they reveal the second bit of info in reverse order (12345-54321). Stops each person from having too much data to make a full scry claim based on in-depth analysis. If mafia reveals first, they have full info for the last part of their scry claim but none for the first part. If they reveal last (5) they have one piece of information from everyone else to make theri full claim and that's it.

To start things rolling - Tom the Mime scried Aventine.

[Disc Lorde]

Well, we got everyone on at roughly the same time yesterday. But if that doesn't happen again today I'm down with your idea Tom.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm not very fond of Tom's idea because I think the result is more important than the target. It's also important to note that we can combine our 2 methods. It doesn't hurt for people in sequence to reveal their results simultaneously.

[Tom the Mime]

Just clearing it up - when I mentioned the first bit of information, I wasn't saying everyone should reveal who then everyone reveals what. I just meant the info you're giving out first. A mix of both who's and what's would be expected.

[Saposhiente]

I would like to comment that when I am narrator for Dethy I would frown upon player synchronization based strategies intended to deprive the Mafia of the time needed to come up with the best lie. Dethy is supposed to be a game of considered, logical deduction, and that strategy if successfully implemented would remove this for the Mafia, eliminating fun. Strategies based on only revealing some of your information in order to make the Mafia's job harder would of course be fine.

[Aventine]

Well following Tom the Mime's plan:

Aventine scried Someone as Innocent

[Disc Lorde]

Yeah, I think Tom's plan is the best we got.

Disc Lorde scooped Duck999.

[Duck999]

Sounds good.
Duck999 scooped someone as Mafia.

Also, if you get mafia as a result on 2 people, you know you are the paranoid or insane cop.

[DukeGod]

Sounds good. Here's what I got

DukeGod has scooped Aventine

As the last, should I also divulge the second part of my result right? Either way it sounds like a good idea to say it

DukGod scryed someone as Mafia

And thus for now
Aventine

[Duck999]

We came up with a strategy to try to help us. Dukegod went ahead and changed that. We all know scrying someone as mafia means nothing because you could be Paranoid or Insane. Because Dukegod was so quick to change our strategy and voted without being sure that he was right, I will vote Dukegod for the time being. This could change.

[Tom the Mime]

We came up with a strategy to try to help us. Dukegod went ahead and changed that. We all know scrying someone as mafia means nothing because you could be Paranoid or Insane. Because Dukegod was so quick to change our strategy and voted without being sure that he was right, I will vote Dukegod for the time being. This could change.

DukeGod is following the strategy - he revealed last in the first round so he's first in the second. It's your turn in the second round now.

As for the vote, I wouldn't have voted yet personally but it just looks like a placeholder.

[Duck999]

Ah, I didn't realize that he was last. That's saying something about my counting skills.:smalltongue:
Duck999 scooped Dukegod as something.

For now, my vote remains a placeholder.

[Disc Lorde]

Disc Lorde scooped someone as Mafia.

It's now Aventine's turn.

[Aventine]

I scried Duck999 as Innocent

To summarize the results so far:

Tom the Mime scried Aventine as …
Aventine scried Duck999 as Innocent
Disc Lorde scried Duck999 as Mafia
Duck999 scried DukeGod as Mafia
DukeGod scried Aventine as Mafia

[Tom the Mime]

And I scryed Aventine as innocent. And now to get started on the analysis

[Duck999]

So either Tom the Mime or Aventine is the Naive cop. The other is either sane, insane, or the mafia.
Of everyone else, we know one of them is paranoid and the other 2 are the ones that Aventine and Tom are not.
We must remember it is hard to tell the naive cop from the sane cop, since both will get innocent as a result on at least 4 people. So you can not claim either Aventine or Tom is the sane cop because you are innocent, because the naive cop would get the same result. On the other hand, the mafia could claim one of them as the naive or insane cop, because they are the mafia and definitely not innocent.:smalltongue:
Sorry, I just had to add some humor to this.

[Disc Lorde]

All right, analysis time.

(CSI theme plays.)

Tom the Mime scried Aventine as Innocent
Aventine scried Duck999 as Innocent
Disc Lorde scried Duck999 as Mafia
Duck999 scried DukeGod as Mafia
DukeGod scried Aventine as Mafia

Let's start with Tom the Mime. If he were Mafia, that would mean that Aventine was the Naïve Cop and the Sane Cop got a scoop on the Mafia. But no one got a scoop on Tom, so that would be a contradiction. So Tom the Mime is definitely Innocent.

Next, Aventine. If he were Mafia, that would mean that Tom is the Naïve Cop and DukeGod is the Sane Cop. Duck and I would be the Paranoid and Insane Cops, in some order.

If any of the next 3 people were Mafia, there would have to be 2 Mafia and 2 Innocent scries. That would mean that either the Sane and Insane cops both scried them, or neither did.

I'm next on the list. No one scried me, so if I were Mafia, that would mean that Tom and Aventine were the Sane and Naïve Cops, and Duck and Duke were the Insane and Paranoid Cops, in some order.

If Duck were Mafia, that would mean that one of two cases are true. Either I'm Sane, Aventine is Insane, Tom is Naïve, and Duke is Paranoid, or I'm Paranoid, Aventine is Naïve, Tom is Sane, and Duke is Insane.

If Duke were Mafia, Duck would have to be Paranoid, which would mean I'm Insane and Tom and Aventine are Sane and Naïve, in some order.



So we know Tom is innocent from logical deduction, but that's the only person we can clear just from that. That won't do. We need to clear at least 2 more people. So now we have to analyze behavior and who's likely to be mafia based on these scries, and figure out if there's a strategy whereby the night 1 scries will narrow it down. This'll take some thinking.

[Disc Lorde]

*analyzing intensifies*

Well, I'm guessing Duck is innocent, for two reasons. The first is that he behavior seems town-y. He seems to be doing his best to reason and scumhunt, and the only thing that seems fishy to me is his jump on DukeGod, but I could buy that as an honest mistake, and also it seems a little obvious. I would think a wolf would be more subtle than that. Also, for him to be Mafia the players who scried him would have to be Sane and Insane or Naïve and Paranoid, which is 2 pairs out of 6 possible, so a 1/3 chance. That's slightly unlikely. So working under the assumption that Duck is innocent for now.

If we assume for now that Duck is innocent, that leaves three players left who could be Mafia: myself, Aventine, and DukeGod. They're both usually this quiet, so I can't narrow it down from their behavior. However, if we lynch DukeGod and the Mafia is Aventine, we kill our Sane cop. But if we lynch Aventine and DukeGod is Mafia we may be okay.

So, []Aventine[/s].

[Tom the Mime]

Here's a set of tables with the possible meanings of the scries, each table assuming that a specific person is mafia (indicated by the O). I think I've copied it over right.



Mafia
Naive
Paranoid
Sane
Insane


Tom
O
X
X
X
X


DukeGod
X
X

X



Duck
X
X

X



Aventine
X

X

X


Disc
X
X

X







Mafia
Naive
Paranoid
Sane
Insane


Tom
X

X

X


DukeGod
O
X
X
X
X


Duck
X
X

X
X


Aventine
X

X

X


Disc
X
X
X
X








Mafia
Naive
Paranoid
Sane
Insane


Tom
X

X

X


DukeGod
X
X

X



Duck
O
X
X
X
X


Aventine
X

X
X



Disc
X
X


X







Mafia
Naive
Paranoid
Sane
Insane


Tom
X

X
X
X


DukeGod
X
X
X

X


Duck
X
X

X



Aventine
O
X
X
X
X


Disc
X
X

X








Mafia
Naive
Paranoid
Sane
Insane


Tom
X

X

X


DukeGod
X
X

X



Duck
X
X

X



Aventine
X

X

X


Disc
O
X
X
X
X



Straight away you can see I'm confirmed innocent by the contradiction if I'm mafia (as people mentioned before) and likely to die night 1. Looking at the table, a couple of ideal scry options also come up.

1)DukeGod scries Tom the Mime
If he gets an innocent result, he is not paranoid or insane. Crossing those out in the table clears Disc Lorde and Duck (as there's nothing left for DukeGod to be if they're mafia)
If he gets guilty, he isn't sane. Crossing this out clears Aventine.

2)Disc Lorde scries DukeGod
If he gets an innocent result, he's not paranoid and he's not insane unless DukeGod is mafia. Clears Aventine similar to above.
If he gets guilty, Duke is cleared as the tables show that if Duke is mafia, Disc Lorde is insane.

I can't find any other scries that clear someone regardless of the result so they should to be kept.

Duck999 is the only non-town firm who can be lynched without compromising the effectiveness of the above scries.

This would leave Aventine and I as either naive or sane (or possibly mafia for Aventine) in all remaining cases so we'd just scry Disc or Duke to see if we get a guilty scry to up the chances a little bit.

tl;dr version: If we lynch Duck999 we have the chance of him being mafia this lynch and a 50%+ chance of winning the next day if it gets that far.

[Duck999]

You can't clear people based on scries. The mafia could easily lie, clearing themselves. Nobody can really be cleared because of a lying mafia. I prefer Disc Lordes logic against Aventine.

[Disc Lorde]

Actually Duck, you can clear people as long as their not the one making the scry. In the case that the scrier is a Mafia, everyone else is not, so adding that case doesn't change the fact that someone else is cleared.

[Aventine]

Duck, assume one person is mafia and use the other scries to see what is possible. Repeat that for if everyone is mafia and you get a list of all the possible role distributions:


MafiaSaneInsaneNaïveParanoid
AventineDukeDiscTomDuck
AventineDukeDuckTomDisc
DiscAventineDuckTomDuke
DiscAventineDukeTomDuck
DiscTomDuckAventineDuke
DiscTomDukeAventineDuck
DuckDiscAventineTomDuke
DuckTomDukeAventineDisc
DukeAventineDiscTomDuck
DukeTomDiscAventineDuck


I put that together pretty quickly, but I don't think I missed any.


Now, if we follow Tom the Mime's plan and have DukeGod scry him, then there two possibilities.
If he gets an innocent result, then he is not Insane or Paranoid and we cross off the rows where he is listed there:

MafiaSaneInsaneNaïveParanoid
AventineDukeDiscTomDuck
AventineDukeDuckTomDisc
DukeAventineDiscTomDuck
DukeTomDiscAventineDuck


If he gets guilty then he can't be sane and we cross off those possibilities:

MafiaSaneInsaneNaïveParanoid
DiscAventineDuckTomDuke
DiscAventineDukeTomDuck
DiscTomDuckAventineDuke
DiscTomDukeAventineDuck
DuckDiscAventineTomDuke
DuckTomDukeAventineDisc
DukeAventineDiscTomDuck
DukeTomDiscAventineDuck


Similar thing for the second scry. Though Tom, if Disc Lorde scries DukeGod and gets an innocent result, couldn't be be insane and DukeGod the mafia? You say he can't be paranoid or insane, am I missing something?

Naturally, he could be the mafia and be lying, but that is why we have multiple people scry. We should be able to narrow down the possibilities enough to get a good idea of who the mafia is.

Anyway, because Tom's plan sounds pretty good overall (though I will look to see if I can figure out any other good scry combinations), and because Duck999 seems a little too eager to not be lynched when it could be best for the cops, I vote for him.

EDIT:

However, if we lynch DukeGod and the Mafia is Aventine, we kill our Sane cop. But if we lynch Aventine and DukeGod is Mafia we may be okay.
Killing the sane cop isn't a big deal. The plan is to find the mafia by narrowing down the possibilities, not by trying to figure out who the sane cop is and hoping he hits the mafia. So losing the sane cop isn't a big deal if it helps us narrow things down. Because of that, and because your last post makes it sound like you understand what is going on with Tom's plan and using scries to narrow things down, would you switch to lynching Duck and following the plan?

[Tom the Mime]

Similar thing for the second scry. Though Tom, if Disc Lorde scries DukeGod and gets an innocent result, couldn't be be insane and DukeGod the mafia? You say he can't be paranoid or insane, am I missing something?


It's when Disc Lorde scries DukeGod and gets an guilty result that it clears DukeGod. The tables show that we already know that if DukeGod is mafia, Disc Lorde is insane so if he scried him as guilty it would create a contradiction, which would clear DukeGod. You probably just got a little mixed up given that can seems counterintuitive to clear someone by them being scried as guilty.

If DL scries DG and gets innocent, that's when it clears you.

[Aventine]

2)Disc Lorde scries DukeGod
If he gets an innocent result, he's not paranoid or insane. Clears Aventine similar to above.
If he gets guilty, Duke is cleared as the tables show that if Duke is mafia, Disc Lorde is insane.

If Disc Lorde gets an innocent scry on DukeGod then he isn't Paranoid. But, if DukeGod is the mafia and Disc Lorde is insane (which is a possibility, unless I messed up my table), then he would get an innocent result. That's what my question was: you said if he gets an innocent result he is not paranoid or insane, and I think that should be "he is not paranoid."

EDIT: It doesn't change anything, if he gets an innocent scry I would still be cleared, I think. But it should still be possible for him to be insane, so long as DukeGod is the mafia. That is what confused me.

Ugh, this is the second post in a row I realized I need to edit immediately, I need to do a better job reviewing

[Tom the Mime]

I see what you were saying now. When I was typing that, I was mainly thinking about the table where you were mafia and forgot to express that that was only the case for the that table (and all non-DukeGod tables). It's been corrected in the post now. The conclusion is still valid though - I used the right logic to get to it, I just didn't express it quite correctly.

[Disc Lorde]

Well, crap.

We want to find the best possible scry combination. I'd love to dig into that problem, but it's complicated and I don't have time. Day ends in 12 hours and I have an assignment due in 15 that I need to do a lot of studying for. So I'm going to strike a killing blow to Duck999. If you guys have time to go through all the different scry combinations and find the best one that would be great. Now I need to get to bed. Peace out.



Killing the sane cop isn't a big deal. The plan is to find the mafia by narrowing down the possibilities, not by trying to figure out who the sane cop is and hoping he hits the mafia. So losing the sane cop isn't a big deal if it helps us narrow things down. Because of that, and because your last post makes it sound like you understand what is going on with Tom's plan and using scries to narrow things down, would you switch to lynching Duck and following the plan?

I know that what we're trying to do is narrow the possibilities down. It helps us narrow things down a lot if can we keep the Sane and/or Insane cop and they scry the Mafia. I'm looking at the bigger picture though, don't worry.

[Zjoot]

Day ends now

Duck999 was lynched. He was a Cop

Night 1 will begin now and last about 24 hours, or until I get all night actions.

Also, I will be doing narrations at the end. I want to incorporate people's exact roles into the narration. Feel free to continue adding a bit of role play if you want any particular character traits to pop up.

[Tom the Mime]

You need to clear your inbox Zjoot.

[Zjoot]

Sorry about that. There's room now. The new update doesn't show you your pm's, so I didn't realize it was full.

[Zjoot]

Alrighty, after realizing that I was waiting on the scry of yesterday's lynch victim (:smallredface:), the night ends.

DukeGod was killed. He was a cop, of course.

Day 3 begins now and ends in 78 hours or when two players vote to lynch another player.

[Disc Lorde]

Well this makes my vote rather simple at least. I know Aventine is mafia by process of elimination. This round is going to be up to Tom. Looking at the table...

Aw, donuts.

Both our sane and insane cops are dead. No doubt about that for me. I got a guilty scry on DukeGod, so I must be the Paranoid Cop, and I know that Tom must be the naïve cop and have gotten an innocent result.

It's up to you Tom. Use your head. If you make the right choice you're probably a shoo-in for MVP. If you choose wrong the Mafia wins. Good luck.

- - - Updated - - -

Note: Tom should reveal his result last, as we know he's a Cop.

[Aventine]

Well, I scried Disc Lorde as guilty.

Not much else to say. Unless Tom wants an argument from each of us in our defense, or something?

[Tom the Mime]

I can't really think of anything else either of you would say which would sway me in one direction or another. You know that whoever I scried, it was as innocent (it was DukeGod) given that Aventine's claim means I'm naive if he's telling the truth and if he's not, he's mafia and I knew I'd be naive in that case anyway.

One is that if Disc was mafia, he could've gotten away with killing anyone and being in a 1-on-1 with someone else and a confirmed villager who had a combined 25% chance of scrying him as guilty and knowing it was the truth. On the other hand, Aventine couldn't kill me without being outed as mafia by scries. But that itself make it best for Disc to kill Duke - keeping me alive and more suspicion falls on Aventine. If this was all there was I'd go for Aventine because it's a 50/50 assuming Disc was mafia and thought out his kill and slightly better odds if you assume Disc didn't think out his kill.

Looking at scries, Disc's scry was a foregone conclusion given the kill but Aventine's was not. The fact that he revealed it doesn't seem to mean anything if thought through (both by me and by him before posting it) because truth or lie, he knows I'm naive and can't contradict it. So it ends up just being a behaviour thing and that tends to mean little when there's so little to go on. So still no real conclusion but erring slightly towards Aventine.

Now looking at the second round of Day 1 scry claims as a possible tiebreaker (round 1 had too little info for either of them for serious strategizing as they were near the start. Looking at the info they had at the time.
From this point on, it’s very possible I overthought the extent to which the mafia thought about their claim. It did bring up some interesting points such as that, if they were mafia, both Disc and Aventine could safely assume the detail of my second round scry info Day 1 before I revealed it. Not typing out the logic as it’d be easier to follow in tables and I can’t be bothered making as amny tables as would be required in the forum.

Disc Lorde: Scrying guilty
The 3rd guilty with 1 alignment reveal seems a little risky but given the other information revealed, me claiming Aventine was guilty would clear him, which wasn’t the case if he was mafia so he’d know I’d say innocent.
Crunching the tables for if Disc Lorde scried innocent or guilty and who Aventine could scry (Disc Lorde would know it wasn’t him) showed that town got much more information when Disc Lorde scried guilty – I was always cleared and there were always at least 2 cases of ensured sane or insane if a specific person was a wolf and always let us have one town firm at the end. If it was innocent, there was much less information and there were 2 cases where we could get one clear at the end and 1 where we couldn’t (although in these cases it would be likely that Aventine would have been lynched day 1 so they’d be safe that day). So erring towards Aventine being mafia although choosing Disc choosing guilty here could be a WIFOM sort of thing.

Aventine: Scrying Duck999
First things first – establish the possible information. If I revealed my scry as guilty afterwards, both Disc and I would be cleared by contradiction (I would be cleared before) and at least one person confirmed sane/insane in the remaining mafia tables which would allow mutual clearing. If I had a guilty scry, mafia would be doomed anyway so assume I scried someone innocent. This means Aventine was operating with full information. Going through the four possibilities though, saying he scried Duck as innocent is one of the better looking options although played sensibly by mafia, they all seem to lead to the final day having one confirmed town. Saying he scried Duck as innocent gives table which look awful for mafia (each table has someone cleared or confirmed as sane or insane), but there’s always a weak link you can leave alive (just like there is now if Aventine is mafia) with the same problem that someone else could use that as an escape.

And now that I know I'm naive, time to RP the last bit:

"Do I have to kill one of you? I mean both of you look like such fine gentlemen. Disc Lorde, you said that Aventine even offered to let me sleep with the fishes. I don't know how he knew about my narcolepsy or my dreams of going scuba diving but it seems like such a nice thing to say."
~
"Wait, you mean it doesn't mean that? He was threatening me?"
~
"Really?"
~
"Well in that case, I guess if one of you has to die, it'll be Aventine."

If we win, Disc Lorde was telling the truth. If we lose, Disc Lorde was lying to my poor naive character.

[Zjoot]

(Alright, dramatic pause for the weekend, but now here we go!)

Police chief Ed Rolcsid (Disc Lorde) munched the Bear Claw that formed the last part of his breakfast. It tasted like cliché. He washed it down with coffee, then stared at the stack of paperwork on his desk and sighed. Sure, the promotion had its perks, but also its drawbacks. It had been weeks since he had seen any action. He sat around all day most days doing paperwork. Also, he was beginning to put on some pounds. Before starting into the pile, he checked his e-mail as always. Today, however, there was an unusual message from the Mafia Response Agency (MRA). He read it under his breath.

"We have received word of a Mafioso mole inside your organization. Recommend you resolve by any means necessary." Ed smiled a bit in spite of himself. He pulled out his old Smith and Wesson Model 36, the appropriately named "Chief's Special". He checked that it was operational. It was. "Finally some action."

Meanwhile, from his office, the real police chief, nicknamed Duke (DukeGod), rolled his eyes and chuckled at the poor lunatic trying to drink a cup of pens and pencils. It really wasn't a laughing matter. It was a brutal case, anyone would have lost their marbles over it, but at least he seemed to be coping ok with his "promotion". He turned to his computer finding the same email from the MRA. He lost no time in rallying his most senior detectives for a meeting. Ed, "Ducky" (Duck999), and Al Ventini (Aventine) filed into his office. He closed the door and took a deep breath and got ready to announce the bad news, but Ducky beat him to it.

"This about the mafia scum, Chief?"

"Yes, and it could be anyone in the station so we need to be vigilant and level headed."

As he was saying it, Tom (Tom the Mime) walked in, cradling a rat.

"Sorry I'm late chief. I found this poor little guy in a trap. Someone must have accidentally left it laying around, but it's ok. You're safe now little fella."

"Well, anyone except him..."

"Funny you should say that, because I've got a scoop that says you're the one to blame, 'Chief'" Ducky framed the last part with air quotes. "So it worries me that you'd be so quick to defend Tommy here. You know what I think? I think this conspiracy runs deep. Like, to the core. And I don't know who you've got mixed up in this, but I plan to end it now. I'll exterminate the real rat here!"

Ducky drew his gun, pointing it at Tom first. Tom just stared at his old pal, looking hurt. Al at least had the presence of mind to lower the gun arm. But nobody expected Ed to look up from the very serious conversation he was having with himself to pull out his Smith and Wesson and put a bullet right into Ducky's frontal lobe.

But nobody had time to be shocked, because at that moment the power went out and a shot was heard. When the lights came back up, the chief had a bullet hole to match the one that Ducky's blood seemed to be making a hasty exit through.

Al three cops stood with their guns drawn, Al and Ed glaring at each other. Each egging Tom on.

"Shoot him Tom! He's gotta be the mafia! He killed the chief. I know it."

"Nonsense. You saw this crazy bastard shoot down Ducky in cold blood. He's too dangerous to keep around. Shoot him Tom!"

"Do I have to kill one of you? I mean both of you look like such fine gentlemen. Disc Lorde, you said that Aventine even offered to let me sleep with the fishes. I don't know how he knew about my narcolepsy or my dreams of going scuba diving but it seems like such a nice thing to say."

"No you idiot, he means he's going to drown you. Haven't you ever watched a mafia movie? That's the oldest threat in the book."

"Wait, you mean it doesn't mean that? He was threatening me?"

"Obviously he was threatening you"

"Really?"
"Well in that case, I guess if one of you has to die, it'll be Aventine."


Tom pulled the trigger. And sure enough a search of the body yielded a note with instructions from the local don, as well as a wad of cash. It was clear that Al Ventini was indeed the mole they were looking for.

Aventine was killed. He was mafia. Cops win!

As for the roles,

Tom the Mime was the Naive Cop
Ducky999 was the Paranoid Cop
Disc Lorde was the Insane Cop
and DukeGod was the Sane Cop

So, who do you think was the mvp of this game? Go ahead and discuss it in thread, and I'll set up Heat two.

Also, Askthepizzaguy has officially signed up, so we only need one more player in order to have three heats. If you know of anyone that might be interested, let them know about the game!

[Penguinator]

Oh, put me back in, coach. Why not?

[Zjoot]

Awesome! Random number generator says that heat two will consist of Saposhiente, Sabeki, Lex Kat, Dr. Whooves and Studoku. The remaining five players will make up heat three.

I'll give the players from heat one some time to discuss mvp before sending out the roles for heat 2.

[Duck999]

Ducky999:smalltongue:
Anyway, I think I was most definately the MVP.:smalltongue:
In all seriousness-Tom
Disc and Aventine were both obviously going to vote for each other. Tom made the deciding vote (correctly I might add). He found good reasoning, and figured it out well.

[Aventine]

Tom the Mime really is the easy choice for MVP

[Disc Lorde]

Huh, I read Aventine's table wrong. That was a fun narration Zjoot.

Tom the Mime for MVP. He came up with our method of revealing information, made up those tables, and correctly deduced the Mafia on the final day.

[Duck999]

So Tom has a majority, and I think everyone except him (assuming max modesty) will choose him.
What? Do I not get MVP for taking one for the team?:smalltongue:

[Disc Lorde]

Hehe. If you had suggested your own lynch and given a strategy whereby the town could succeed after your death, then you'd get major points for that. But no points for getting shot, sorry. :smallamused:

[Zjoot]

Yeah, I sort of expected that. Just wanted to make it official.:smallcool: Tom the Mime is the MVP for Heat 1, guaranteeing himself a spot in the finals!

I'm going to pm roles now.

EDIT: Roles sent. Please post here when you are ready to play. :smallsmile:

[Lex-Kat]

A cute young woman with long flowing auburn hair skips down the street with gleeful abandon. She's wearing a cops uniform, but with a short skirt and petticoats. She stops in front of the first person she meets on the street, opens a bag full of candy and holds it up to them. Treat!?

[Tom the Mime]

Got it right :smallsmile:. And in the finals with my new pet rat. If I'm not naive in it, the rat might even be the brains of the operation.

[DoctorWhooves]

This is where heat 2 will be playing right?

Finals are winding down so I am in and here.

[Saposhiente]

Still thinking about proper D1 reveal strategy, but ready to play.

[Zjoot]

I'll pm Sabeki and Studoku to make sure they know they need to post in thread. If I don't hear from them by tomorrow, then I'll replace them with people on the waiting list.

[Zjoot]

Alright, Sabeki has been replaced with Random_Person and Studoku has been replaced with Aric Kale. We can start as soon as both of them post to confirm participation. Please make sure to make the mental adjustment when considering your scry results. :smallsmile:

[Fortuna]

Here and ready. :smallsmile:

[Aric Kale]

Ashton McCallum, reporting for duty.

[Studoku]

Sorry I missed the start.

[Zjoot]

Sorry I missed the start.

That's fine. It's not a big deal. I hope you don't mind that I moved you to the next heat, I just want to keep things rolling as much as possible.

Anyways, now that we have everyone:

Heat two Day 1 has officially begun, and will end in just over 78 hours, or when one person has gotten three lynch votes. Happy hunting! :smallsmile:

[Lex-Kat]

Alexia continues to skip along, approaching a Random Person. Pssst. I hear Doctor Whooves is innocent. Pass it along. she then continues along her merry way.

[Aric Kale]

Ashton drinks his coffee, muttering to Alexia about how Saposhiente seems guilty.

[Lex-Kat]

Perhaps you could edit the OP Player List to show who played in what round? Like this:

01. Duck999- 1st Round
02. Disc Lorde- 1st Round
03. Tom the Mime- 1st Round (Winner)
04. Aventine- 1st Round
05. DukeGod- 1st Round
06. Lex-Kat- 2nd Round
07. Saposhiente- 2nd Round
08. Doctor Whooves- 2nd Round
09. Aric Kale- 2nd Round
10. Random_Person- 2nd Round
11.Tanar Aerdoth
12. Sabeki
13. Studoku
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.

Another idea is, since recruitment has dropped off (:smallfrown:), perhaps allow some of the losers to rejoin, after they have loss?

[Count Dingdong]

@Lex: You've missed Askthepizzaguy and Penguinator in your table, so there are enough people to do a third heat.

Also, if you need anyone to fill in a spot, I've been watching and can be available to play a heat. :smallsmile:

[Penguinator]

That's probably because we aren't on Zjoot's table.

[Fortuna]

Okay. Since we're apparently just revealing our scries one by one, I have aric_kale as guilty.

[Aric Kale]

I wasn't fully sure how we were going about it, but I liked Lex-Kat's approach. Also, I'm definitely a cop.

[Fortuna]

I wasn't fully sure how we were going about it, but I liked Lex-Kat's approach. Also, I'm definitely a cop.

Yes, but you would say that, wouldn't you?

More seriously, due to how scries work, a guilty result doesn't really mean guilty. It just means either I'm paranoid, or you're the mafia and I'm sane, or you're a cop and I'm insane.

[Aric Kale]

So, you could be literally anything except naive, is what you're saying? And I can say with confidence that you aren't sane.

[Fortuna]

Pretty well. The deductions can't start in earnest until we get scry results from Saposhiente and the good (or evil) Doctor.

[Saposhiente]

Dammit guys, you're supposed to only reveal part of your info so that the Mafioso can't construct a perfect fakeclaim. :smallsigh: Look at last game. It's probably too late now, but I'll follow the system anyway and say that I scried (someone) as innocent, and reveal the target after Doctor Whooves reveals his. That way if he is mafia his job is harder and he has fewer safe options.


Target
Lex-Kat
Saposhiente
Doctor Whooves
Aric Kale
Random_Person


Lex-Kat

<Innocent>
?




Saposhiente

<Innocent>
?
Guilty



Doctor Whooves
Innocent
<Innocent>
?




Aric Kale

<Innocent>
?

Guilty


Random_Person

<Innocent>
?




Aric Kale, stop pointing at me. As an unknown cop on D1 there is an exactly 50% chance that the person you scry will scry as guilty, regardless of their actual role. It might not matter right now, but you shouldn't vote preemptively, and do not vote at the start of Day 2. If you are wrong, we lose instantly. Lynches happen immediately once a majority is reached, so don't vote for anyone until everyone has discussed and you are certain that they are the correct target.

[Fortuna]

Dammit guys, you're supposed to only reveal part of your info so that the Mafioso can't construct a perfect fakeclaim. :smallsigh: Look at last game. It's probably too late now, but I'll follow the system anyway and say that I scried (someone) as innocent, and reveal the target after Doctor Whooves reveals his. That way if he is mafia his job is harder and he has fewer safe options.


Target
Lex-Kat
Saposhiente
Doctor Whooves
Aric Kale
Random_Person


Lex-Kat

<Innocent>
?




Saposhiente

<Innocent>
?
Guilty



Doctor Whooves
Innocent
<Innocent>
?




Aric Kale

<Innocent>
?

Guilty


Random_Person

<Innocent>
?




Aric Kale, stop pointing at me. As an unknown cop on D1 there is an exactly 50% chance that the person you point at will scry as guilty, regardless of their actual role. It might not matter right now, but you shouldn't vote preemptively, and do not vote at the start of Day 2. If you are wrong, we lose instantly. Lynches happen immediately once a majority is reached, so don't vote for anyone until everyone has discussed and you are certain that they are the correct target.

Yay, someone who knows what they're doing! Now I can stop pretending I do.

[TFT]

Okay, I'll join one of these too. Though it's all about the part of the game I'm worst at. :smallbiggrin:

[Saposhiente]

Whooves hasn't been listed as viewing the forum since when he posted to confirm. If he doesn't show up before soft deadline, can we have him replaced and Day extended? I'd rather this not come down to "lynch Whooves without evidence and hope he's mafia".

[reaverb]

I'd also like to join the tournament. I sent Zjoot a PM since the heat was in-progress, but since The Fiery Tower just posted here so I guess I'll post here too.

[Aric Kale]

Sorry for my lack of input and mistakes thus far. I am new to this gametype and I'm trying to figure things out.

[Saposhiente]

In case Zjoot doesn't extend day: Doctor Whooves can't be confirmed innocent regardless of what scry result he reports because he would be in the majority result either way. (Majority result = Whichever of Innocent/Guilty the majority of people reported. D1 people are confirmed iff they report the minority result and either were not scried by anyone or are the only one reporting that result. Logic: Townies will report an even split of Innocent/Guilty unless the Sane/Insane Cop scries the Mafia. Therefore, the Mafia must be either in the majority result or scried by the Sane/Insane Cop. Therefore, if someone is in the minority result and hasn't been scried by anyone, they're cleared. This doesn't prove that there's no other scenario where someone is cleared D1, but I've never encountered one.)

[Zjoot]

Don't worry. I'll extend it. I was unable to post over the weekend. I'll give Whooves a quick pm but if he's not here by tomorrow, I'll pm AskthePizzaguy to replace him and extend the day for an additional 48 hours. And I've updated the player list to reflect who was in which heat and to include the new players. We have enough for three heats, and after that I'll open up the recruitment pool to the players that already competed.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I don't mind replacing in, but I would prefer if this game counted under Whooves, and if I could participate from the game start in the next heat as my official representation.

Dethy games are kind of critical in terms of execution and I'd be filling in at the tail end of the first day after everyone else has made their opening moves.

[Zjoot]

That seems fair enough. The day will essentially reset, but I can see what you mean in terms of people already having sent their actions. Since I was planning on filling the last couple of heats with repeats anyways, I think it would be fine iif you wanted to participate again under your own name. I'll send you Whooves' role pm, and the day will restart now. I hope you don't mind but this is the only time I can post until tomorrow evening and you seem to be attending to the thread so I don't want to delay the game y another day by waiting for a ready post.

Heat two Day one restarts with Askthepizzaguy replacing DoctorWhooves. The day will last 48 hours or until someone reaches a majority of the votes.

[Lex-Kat]

BY "restart", do you mean that we'll all get new results and new roles? :smallconfused:

[Aric Kale]

Alright, Lex-Kat is either Naive, Sane, or Insane...oe Mafia.
I'm either Sane, Insane, or Paranoid.
Idk about much else.

[Zjoot]

By restart I simply mean that the players should make an effort to begin a new discussion and analysis. I understand scry results have already been revealed, so there's obviously some groundwork, but in terms of who to lynch, scry, etc... having a new player might create a fresh spin on the discussion. Plus I think it's a bit much to reassign roles just to replace one player.

[Saposhiente]

Well I don't think we need to do much to make a new analysis seeing as we couldn't do the full analysis without the fifth scry.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Officer Askthepizzaguy pulls up in his pizza delivery vehicle criminal catcher car and dons his space helmet official-looking police uniform cap.

He flashes his blue lights and lets his sirens blare, and then honks his horn for emphasis.

"BEEP BEEP! Special Officer Pizzaguy is here, never fear! I'm here to arrest the perpetrator, also known as Studoku, who goes by the alias Aric Kale! Aric, I have an official warrant for your arrest! It's right here in my pockets........... hold on."

Pizza rummages through his pockets, pulling out wads of paper towels, gum wrappers, pencil shavings, pen caps, and bottle caps which all say "Sorry, you are not a winner" on the bottom of them. Eventually he pulls out a bunch of napkins, which have been torn to pieces and stuffed inside random pockets.

"Hold on, this very official warrant is right here, let me just patch things up a bit."

Pizza begins to cough a bit, and eventually, spits out a tube of paste, obviously meant for kindergarteners. He begins pasting the assorted napkin pieces together, and it eventually forms a picture: A remarkably well drawn image (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/20/Boerenkool.jpg) of a leafy green vegetable. In fact, it sort of looks like it was printed on there with a high definition laser printer. Why someone would make a high definition-image of kale on a napkin with a laser printer, I care not to guess.

"See right here, people. This is what I was talking about. Aric Kale, if that is your real alias, you are under arrest for being mean, for being green, and for generally wrong and evil behavior of some kind, probably of the law-breaking type! This warrant that I had in several of my pockets is all the proof I need to string you up by your... your roots! There, won't that be painful, eh?"

:smallamused:

OOC: Now I need to figure out how meaningless that result is. BRB with actual analysis.

- - - Updated - - -






.....cogitating.....

.....generating template....


.....formulating likely parameters....


....reticulating splines.....








I hear Doctor Whooves is innocent

Saposhiente seems guilty.

aric_kale as guilty.

I scried (someone) as innocent

"BEEP BEEP! Special Officer Pizzaguy is here, never fear! I'm here to arrest the perpetrator, also known as Studoku, who goes by the alias Aric Kale!

Resulting Facts (always in orange)


Lex-Kat cannot be Paranoid *and cannot be Insane (Something only I know).* [Result: Innocent]
Sapo cannot be Paranoid. [Result: Innocent]

and

Aric Kale cannot be Naive. [Result: Guilty]
Random cannot be Naive.[Result: Guilty]
Askthepizzaguy cannot be Naive. [Result: Guilty]

Stuff only I know will always be in blue.

Conclusions:

One of Lex-Kat or Saposhiente is the Naive Cop. (Hard, undebatable fact.)


Further analysis and extrapolation:

3 guilty results can only happen the following ways:

1 Paranoid cop result: ALWAYS GUILTY
1 Sane cop result: Guilty result on actual mafioso
1 Insane cop result: Guilty result on innocent person
Mafioso claiming innocent result on someone.
Naive claiming innocent result on someone.

Or, the inverse:

1 Paranoid cop result: ALWAYS GUILTY
Mafioso claiming guilty result on innocent person
1 Insane cop result: Guilty result on innocent person
Sane cop claiming innocent result on someone.
Naive claiming innocent result on someone.

By sheer odds alone, the second scenario is more likely, because the only other way it occurs is if the Sane cop found the guilty mafioso on the very first night, AND, the guilty mafioso decided to claim that some cop was innocent, at the same time.

It can also happen this way, but it is rare:

Paranoid cop: Guilty result always
Mafioso claiming guilty result on innocent person
Sane cop: Guilty result on Guilty person
Insane cop: Innocent result on Guilty person
Naive cop: Innocent result on Innocent person
Which would require both the Sane Cop and the Insane cop to scry the same, guilty target.
I am discarding this theory for now, as it's most likely absurd.

The odds are much, much better (3:1) that the sane cop found an innocent person.

As such, I am working on the premise (opinion) that Lex-Kat and Saposhiente are, respectively, the sane cop and the naive cop, or vice-versa.

As such, (opinion) neither Lex-Kat nor Saposhiente should be lynched today.

--------------------------------------------------------

SCENARIO B ANALYSIS


Inconclusives and leans:

Lex-Kat: Naive or Sane (likely) Mafioso (unlikely) Insane (Impossible) Paranoid (Impossible)
Saposhiente: Naive or Sane (likely) Mafioso (unlikely) Insane (VERY unlikely) Paranoid (Impossible)
Askthepizzaguy: Insane or Paranoid (likely) Sane (unlikely) Mafioso (Impossible) Naive (Impossible)
Aric Kale: Insane or Paranoid or Mafioso (likely) Sane (unlikely) Naive (Impossible)
Random person: Insane or Paranoid or Mafioso (likely) Sane (unlikely) Naive (Impossible)


Furthermore:

If I am Insane, Aric Kale is actually innocent, not guilty.
If I am Paranoid, I cannot tell.

If Aric Kale is Insane, Saposhiente is actually innocent. Which I already assumed.
If he is paranoid, he cannot tell. But I'm assuming.

If Random Person is Insane, Aric Kale is actually innocent, not guilty.
If Random person is paranoid, he cannot tell.


Further-furthermore:

Aric Kale has actually just been proven innocent under Scenario B.

(I am not a mafioso, therefore I can only be Insane or Paranoid. Therefore, either I have a guilty result on Aric Kale proving him therefore innocent, OR, Random person is the Insane cop who has that very same guilty result on Aric Kale, which therefore proves Aric Kale innocent. Or Random Person is the mafioso making up lies about Aric Kale.

Because the only way that Aric Kale can be found guilty twice under this (most likely) scenario (it is not impossible under other, less likely scenarios) is if the Paranoid cop and Insane cop both found him guilty, or if one of the cops scrying him as guilty is actually a mafioso, thus rendering everyone else innocent.

As such, an innocent Aric Kale means the following:

Aric Kale, an innocent, has a guilty result on (likely) innocent Saposhiente. Which means he is likely to be Paranoid or Insane.

Further-Finally-more:

Which means one of Askthepizzaguy or Random Person is guilty under Scenario B.

Which, as we've already discussed, is the most likely scenario.



I will not be voting myself today, so if you guys believe Scenario B is the most likely, Random Person should be lynched.

If the game continues, that means we are actually factually in Scenario A, because Random Person as innocent and Askthepizzaguy as innocent and Aric Kale as innocent means that we are playing Scenario A.

Which means tomorrow, we lynch one of Lex or Saposhiente, the only possible persons who can be guilty under Scenario A.

It also means that Aric Kale must be murdered tonight as he has been proven innocent under Scenario A and Scenario B.

That means I will be alive tomorrow. How suspiciously convenient of me to point that out.

If you guys want to lynch me instead, I have my popcorn ready.

[Askthepizzaguy]

SCENARIO A ANALYSIS

If the game does not end with Random Person's lynch, then we are in scenario A, and Aric Kale will be known to be innocent and therefore murdered, and Pizza will still know he's innocent but no one else will and therefore not be murdered, and Random person will be dead.

Next, we analyze the remainder of the game. What do we know if we are in Scenario A?

1 Paranoid cop result: ALWAYS GUILTY
1 Sane cop result: Guilty result on actual mafioso
1 Insane cop result: Guilty result on innocent person
Mafioso claiming innocent result on someone.
Naive claiming innocent result on someone.


Askthepizzaguy: Insane or Paranoid (LIKELY) (impossible for me to be Sane under Scenario A or B)
Aric Kale: Sane (likely) or Insane or Paranoid (unlikely)
Random person: Insane or Paranoid (Unlikely) (impossible for him to be Sane under Scenario A or B)
Lex-Kat: Naive or Mafioso
Saposhiente: Naive or Mafioso


Now hold on. Askthepizzaguy and Random Person absolutely, positively, must be the Insane and the Paranoid cops if this is Scenario A, because if the game continues with Random Person's lynch, either I am guilty, which sorry, I know I am not, or it's forced: Askthepizzaguy and Random Person were the Insane and Paranoid cops, and that FORCES Aric Kale to be the Sane Cop.

Which means that Saposhiente is always guilty in Scenario A.


Therefore the game is solved.

Askthepizzaguy has deduced that Random person is 75% likely to be mafia, (Scenario B) and the only other possible person in this game who can be guilty at all is Saposhiente (Scenario A), who I deduce is unlikely to be mafia because I doubt this is Scenario A.

Therefore we lynch Random person today, and one of Askthepizzaguy or Saposhiente tomorrow for the win.

Lex-Kat therefore is always innocent, as is Aric Kale, and Lex-Kat has the deciding vote tomorrow if the game lasts that long.

Kisses, Lex-Kat.

- - - Updated - - -

..............



Just to be super-thorough, the highly unlikely..........

SCENARIO C ANALYSIS

Paranoid cop: Guilty result always
Mafioso claiming guilty result on innocent person
Sane cop: Guilty result on Guilty person
----------------------
Insane cop: Innocent result on Guilty person (Lex-Kat, Saposhiente)
Naive cop: Innocent result on Innocent person (Lex-Kat, Saposhiente)

Under the highly unlikely Scenario C, both Lex-Kat and Saposhiente are by rule, always innocent.

Again, we should not lynch Lex-Kat or Saposhiente today.

Lex-Kat: Naive or Sane and CANNOT BE INSANE OR I AM MAFIA. And I know I'm not mafia.
Saposhiente: MUST BE THE INSANE COP.

No further analysis required, because now we have a known true result of "insane: innocent" which means Guilty 100 percent of the time.

Because I am innocent, Scenario C produces Saposhiente as the Insane Cop with an innocent result.

That person that Saposhiente has an innocent result on is therefore guilty, always, in Scenario C.

And if we are in Scenario C, we have already lynched Random Person, and that means that Random person was innocent, and since I am also innocent, the only possible person that Saposhiente can claim to have scried innocent and still be believed,

(since Sapo will not have scried himself, and cannot claim to have scried Lex-Kat innocent and under Scenario C, Sapo is always innocent as well, and therefore will NEVER, EVER have scried [U]me innocent because I am in fact innocent, precluding that result, we have already lynched Random person, and so therefore that would force Aric Kale to be guilty.)

Is Aric Kale.

I find it implausible.


Scenario C is forced to be:

Insane Cop: Saposhiente with an innocent result on (the only possible person) Aric Kale, forcing Aric Kale to be guilty.
Naive Cop: Lex-Kat with an innocent result on Askthepizzaguy.
Sane Cop: Askthepizzaguy or Random Person with a guilty result on Aric Kale.
Paranoid Cop: Askthepizzaguy or Random Person with a guilty result on Aric Kale
Mafioso: Aric Kale.


Saposhiente can therefore solve the game now, because if Saposhiente has an innocent result on ANYONE BESIDES ARIC KALE, Saposhiente under Scenario C is claiming to be guilty. Which is also the end result of Scenario B.

Therefore, Saposhiente can remove Scenario C from being a possibility by naming someone besides Aric Kale as innocent.

Final Conclusion:

Under Scenarios A, B, and C, Lex-Kat is always innocent.

Askthepizzaguy is always innocent and I will vote for any person who disagrees, because they have either not done the analysis properly or they are guilty themselves.

Under Scenario A and B, Aric Kale is always innocent. Only under Scenario C (Sapo scried Aric Kale) can he be guilty.
Aric Kale is therefore highly unlikely to be guilty regardless on Scenario.

Saposhiente is likely innocent, but possibly guilty.

Random Person is unlikely to be innocent.




Random Person is guilty 74% of the time.
Saposhiente is guilty 24% of the time.
Aric Kale is guilty 2% of the time, and Saposhiente can remove that option entirely for us today.
Askthepizzaguy and Lex-Kat are always innocent.

[Askthepizzaguy]

TL;DR summary

Lex-Kat (sane) proves Askthepizzaguy innocent.
Lex-Kat (mafia) proves Askthepizzaguy innocent, but it's impossible.

However, in no scenarios is Lex-Kat guilty because it's impossible for the rest of the cops to be telling the truth about their scry results, unless I just openly claimed to be mafia. Literally, if I call lex-Kat mafia, I am admitting to being mafia.

Lex-Kat (naive) doesn't prove anything.
Lex-Kat (insane) would mean I am admitting to being guilty right now, and I'm not. Lex-Kat is never insane.
Lex-Kat (paranoid) is impossible.
Saposhiente (sane) proves whoever he scried innocent.
Saposhiente (naive) proves Askthepizzaguy innocent, because that forces Lex-Kat to be sane, because Lex-Kat is never mafia (in Scenarios A, B, or C) and never insane and never Paranoid (innocent result)
Saposhiente (mafia) proves Askthepizzaguy innocent (duh). This is the likely scenario if Random Person is innocent, by the way.
Saposhiente (insane) proves Aric Kale guilty. This is extremely unlikely.
Saposhiente (paranoid) is impossible.
Aric Kale (sane) proves Saposhiente guilty.
Aric Kale (paranoid) proves that Random Person is guilty.
Aric Kale (insane) proves that Random Person is guilty.
Aric Kale (mafia) proves that Askthepizzaguy is innocent.
Aric Kale (naive) is impossible.
Askthepizzaguy (sane) proves Aric Kale guilty. This is extremely unlikely.
Askthepizzaguy (paranoid) proves Aric Kale innocent as Random Person can only be insane or mafia.
Askthepizzaguy (insane) proves Aric Kale innocent.
Askthepizzaguy (mafia) is not bloody likely.
Askthepizzaguy (naive) is impossible.
Random person (sane) proves Aric Kale guilty. This is extremely unlikely.
Random person (paranoid) proves Aric Kale innocent as Askthepizzaguy can only be insane or mafia, and I'm not the bloody mafia.
Random person (insane) proves Aric Kale innocent.
Random person (mafia) is likely.
Random person (naive) is impossible.

I am voting for Random Person regardless today, especially if Saposhiente claims to have scried anyone besides Aric Kale, because the game is absolutely solved if he does.

If Saposhiente claims to have scried anyone besides Aric Kale, Saposhiente is guilty 100 percent of the time after we lynch Random Person.

Aric Kale is guilty once in a blue moon.

Lex-Kat is never guilty.

Askthepizzaguy is verbose.

[Fortuna]

...okay, hang about a moment there. You can't assume you're innocent for the purposes of analysis - or rather, we can't assume that you're innocent for the purposes of analysis, and your contending that we should is disingenuous. You and I are indistinguishable in terms of raw data, and so should equally be up for lynch, Askthepizzaguy. You provided a bunch of analysis, which is helpful, but in a game this small and with Saposhiente available to analyze as well could easily just be a mafioso bluff, on grounds that the analysis is going to get done anyway so it might as well come from you, making you look good.

So, to the rest of the players: there is nothing in it, beyond ephemeral psychological factors, when choosing between lynching pizza and me. Any claims to the contrary should be ignored, barring that Saposhiente's result was on pizza or me and that changes the analysis somehow.

[Askthepizzaguy]

...okay, hang about a moment there. You can't assume you're innocent for the purposes of analysis - or rather, we can't assume that you're innocent for the purposes of analysis, and your contending that we should is disingenuous. You and I are indistinguishable in terms of raw data, and so should equally be up for lynch, Askthepizzaguy.

You're correct, I am contending that one of us is guilty ~74% of the time.

My role PM makes my choice today therefore rather simple, dunnit. :smallbiggrin:

[Fortuna]

It does, mafioso. :smallmad:

Seriously, though, folks, pay mind to the fact that only one of us is interested in giving you the information as you know it, not the information as we know it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

It does, mafioso. :smallmad:

Seriously, though, folks, pay mind to the fact that only one of us is interested in giving you the information as you know it, not the information as we know it.

Here's the scenario where I am the mafioso:

Askthepizzaguy (Mafioso) generates false guilty result on Aric Kale, who was never likely to be guilty anyway. Okay, so what does that FORCE to happen?

Lex-Kat is the Naive Cop or the insane cop, because now, she absolutely cannot be the sane cop, because now Askthepizzaguy is guilty, and she cannot be the Paranoid cop (innocent result), and she's not lying (mafia).



However, if Lex-Kat is the insane cop, that means that either Aric kale or Random Person is the paranoid cop by default, and NOT BOTH of them, and they also cannot be lying if Askthepizzaguy is mafia.
So that means we have Villager Aric Kale calling Saposhiente guilty, while not being the insane cop, while Random Person the villager is calling Villager Aric Kale guilty, while ALSO not being the insane cop. And as you can tell by simple arithmetic, that's impossible.
THEREFORE, IPSO FACTO, PRESTO CHANGEO:
Lex-Kat can ONLY BE THE NAIVE COP if I am guilty.
Which forces Saposhiente to be the Insane cop or the Sane cop.
And if Saposhiente is the insane cop, he'd have to have scried me personally.
If Saposhiente is the sane cop, he can never have scried me.


What else do we then know?

Saposhiente as an innocent person (forced by ATPG being mafia) can only have scried ME as the insane cop.



Which means that, again, villager Aric Kale scried villager Sapo guilty while not being the insane cop, while at the same time villager Random Person scried villager Aric Kale guilty while also not being the insane cop.
Which means, again, that is impossible. Due to arithmetic.


Which means Saposhiente is never the insane Cop either if I am guilty.

Which makes Sapo the Sane cop with an innocent result on someone ((which CANNOT be me if I am guilty) and the Insane cop would have had to have scried me innocent, and....

NOBODY ELSE SCRIED ME.

That means, there is no scenario where either Lex-Kat OR Saposhiente is the Insane Cop if I am guilty.

And that means that there is no possible way for there to be 3 guilty scry results to occur on the people they have occurred on, if I am guilty.

In order for me to be guilty, the insane cop needed to have scried me innocent and they DID NOT.

Because one of those guilty results NEEDS to be on me, and none of them were.

And that means it is impossible for these scry results to occur if I am guilty.



....

Utterly impossible for me to be guilty.

Generate a scenario where these specific scry results have occurred if Askthepizzaguy was mafia.

It's not possible.

Open challenge.

If you can demonstrate a scenario where these scry results can occur if I am mafia, I will self-vote today.

Retracted because I am a silly banana.

[Fortuna]

Er... so, if you're guilty, your result can be safely ignored. Then we have Lex scries you innocent, I scry aric guilty, aric scries Sapo guilty and Sapo scries (someone) innocent.

So... if Lex is naive, I'm paranoid, aric is insane, and Sapo scried one of us cops and is sane, everything is consistent, no? Am I missing something here?

EDIT: Note that equally, aric could be paranoid and myself insane.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Er... so, if you're guilty, your result can be safely ignored. Then we have Lex scries you innocent, I scry aric guilty, aric scries Sapo guilty and Sapo scries (someone) innocent.

So... if Lex is naive, I'm paranoid, aric is insane, and Sapo scried one of us cops and is sane, everything is consistent, no? Am I missing something here?

I might indeed be missing something here.

hmmm.

Lex does have to be naive. Sapo cannot be insane, Sapo can be sane, but cannot have scried me at all.

It would have to be that specific setup and Sapo can never have scried me.

Where did I....

"Insane cop would have to have scried me"

There's where the train left the rails. That would have caused 3 innocent results to occur which is obviously not the case, but it's also possible the insane cop scried an innocent person and got the guilty result.

I am thinking my knowledge of my own innocence tainted my analysis on that last part. If so, oops.

Very well, it's a fair cop. I can in fact be guilty, I just happen not to be. :smalltongue:

Full marks on pointing out the error though. I was almost certain you had claimed mafia with your vote on me just a minute ago.

It's probable you're still claiming mafia, but I can't quite prove it conclusively.

- - - Updated - - -

Here's why it's an honest mistake:

I'm always thinking the insane cop scries me as guilty if they scry me, and that's where I was coming up with 3 innocent results if they scried me, which cannot occur here, as it's the inverse of the insane cop scrying me innocent if I am in fact guilty, which would create a third (fictional) innocent scry result, which hasn't occurred.

My assuming the insane cop scries me guilty and therefore creates the 3 guilty scry results is because I was not imagining myself as guilty.

I bungled basic arithmetic because I forgot to carry the minus sign.

Well I'm just not mafia, that's all. There, all the proof you need: my very solemn and never-broken word.

Quit rolling your eyes at me, universe!

- - - Updated - - -

What's really sad is nobody scried me guilty either, so almost none of that last bit makes any sense.

Yes, Insane cop hypothetically scries you guilty, because that's what result an insane cop would get, Special Officer Pizzaguy, but that result can happen on any innocent person, not just you, and nobody scried you guilty anyway, so your hypothetical makes no sense, Special Officer Pizzaguy.

Congratulations, me fail English! Not unpossible after all.

This is why I'm Special Officer Pizzaguy.

Don't laugh, it happens to the best of us.

Mostly me.

- - - Updated - - -

Okay, so do we lynch me over that brain fart?

I did admit, after all, that ATPG / Random Person are 74% likely to be mafia.

I put the analysis up and it was flawed at the end of it (only in terms of describing my own innocence- Everything else is rock solid AFAICT).

So was it deliberate? Surely you can't let me get away with such chicanery if it was indeed chicanery.

I will say in my own defense, I tend to calculate things more carefully rather than blurt things out and steamroll on forward, mostly because as the sole antagonist of the game (if I'm mafia) I can't really afford to ruin the game via blunder on D1 by not knowing what I'm talking about and therefore outing myself as guilty.

Whereas as I townie I just assume my analysis is spot on and I post it without proofreading. I assume I can always go back and correct formatting mistakes and whatnot, and usually my logic is a bit better than having zero solid footing to stand on, so why would I assume I need to read it carefully before posting it?

It's not a 50/50 choice you're faced with today guys. Pizza is still innocent.

Yay Pizza as innocent. Classic all-offense zero-thought-put-into-defense mode. Works like a charm every time, except for all those times.

[Aric Kale]

Random_person. If he's guilty, I live. If he's not, well, gg everyone.

[Saposhiente]

My target was Random Person.


Target
Lex-Kat
Saposhiente
Askthepizzaguy
Aric Kale
Random_Person


Lex-Kat







Saposhiente



Guilty



Askthepizzaguy
Innocent






Aric Kale


Guilty

Guilty


Random_Person

Innocent





Ugh. Pizzaguy, don't analyze with the assumption that you're innocent. That's not helpful to the rest of us. And your verbosity is not appreciated. Makes it easier to hide errors.
Glance analysis says that Lex-Kat is proven innocent. (See my previous logic)
Have to go, will redo full analysis to see if anyone else really is proven innocent when I come back.
Actually, I can do the important part of the analysis right now:
If Sapo is Mafia, then Lex is Naive, Kale is Sane, and Pizza and Random are Insane/Paranoid. Possible.
If Pizza is Mafia, then Lex is Naive, Sapo is Sane, and Kale and Random are Insane/Paranoid. Possible.
If Kale is Mafia, then Pizza and Random are Sane/Paranoid, and Sapo and Lex are Naive/???. Nobody is insane, therefore Kale is innocent. Huh, I'll need to figure out the case for this in my analysis trick.
If Random is Mafia, then Lex is Sane, Sapo is Naive, and Pizza and Kale are Insane/Paranoid. Possible.
I see Lex and Kale as Innocent.

[Saposhiente]

Standard WW reads pre-analysis:
Lex: Neutral
Kale: Villager lean
Random: Suspicious
Pizza: Not to be trusted
Okay, so I've read Pizzaguy's stuff. Two proven innocents suggests that the mafioso made a mistake with his claim; with the information he had Pizzaguy shouldn't have made such a mistake, which points to Random Person. If either Pizzaguy or Random Person hadn't claimed to have scried him, Kale wouldn't be confirmed innocent. In fact, if one of them had claimed to have scried Lex-Kat as Guilty, there would probably be nobody confirmed innocent.
Actually, assuming Random Person is mafia, even given the information he had at the time, the "best" (minimizing confirmed innocents, not accounting for WIFOM) play was to either claim to have scried Lex-Kat as guilty or Kale as innocent. However, it takes either significant experience or some very serious analysis to identify these plays.

By sheer odds alone, the second scenario is more likely, because the only other way it occurs is if the Sane cop found the guilty mafioso on the very first night, AND, the guilty mafioso decided to claim that some cop was innocent, at the same time.
Mafioso learns which roles scry him at the beginning of D1, so if the Sane cop finds the mafioso then they will claim innocent for sure; no coincidence. I know because I added the rule myself; Pizzaguy probably is experienced with Dethy elsewhere without that rule; if he was Mafia then he would have learned it in his PM. Non-PIS, unless it's a double bluff. Would have to think very trickily to come up with this error as mafia.
Pizza knows that I still had to post again after his analysis, and that I am very experienced at Dethy. I doubt that he would have been willing to bet that I wouldn't notice his error. Could be double bluffing, but eh.
I feel we could have done more to cut through Pizzaguy's self-innocence assumption if Random Person had done a better job of interrogating him, rather than attacking him.
If Pizza is Mafia he has to be conducting a very well thought-out double bluff. I'm sure he could do it, and the probability he's attempting a double bluff is probably higher than normal because this isn't his official inclusion, but it's not extraordinarily likely. Pizzaguy's analysis had a poor ratio of words to usefulness and an excess of confidence, but I feel that's par for the course.
So far signs point to Random Person, but still want to consider what we can do tomorrow night, see if there's a way we can make this be 100% winrate if we lynch the right person.
Assume Pizza is mafia and we lynch Random. Lex is Naive, Sapo is Sane, and Kale and Random are Insane/Paranoid. Kale dies. Sapo scries Pizza as guilty or Lex as innocent, Pizza fakescries... something.
Assume Sapo is mafia and we lynch Random. Lex is Naive, Kale is Sane, and Pizza and Random are Insane/Paranoid. Kale dies. Pizza could scry me as innocent or guilty, or Lex as guilty. Sapo fakescries Pizza as guilty or Lex as innocent.
Back in the pizza is mafia scenario, Pizza could scry me as innocent or guilty, or Lex as guilty. The results are indistinguishable because Lex's scry is uninformative; 50% winrate.
Okay, the Pizza lynch is more complex. I'm making a table


Scenario
Random mafia




Sapo mafia







Lex
Sapo
Pizza
Kale
Random
Lex
Sapo
Pizza
Kale
Random


Role
Sane
Naive
Insane
Paranoid
Mafia
Naive
Mafia
Insane
Sane
Paranoid


Alt role
Sane
Naive
Paranoid
Insane
Mafia
Naive
Mafia
Paranoid
Sane
Insane


Scry target
Sapo
Any

Sapo
Sapo
Sapo
Any

Sapo
Sapo


Alt scry
Random
Any

Random
Sapo
Random
Any

Random
Sapo


Lex dies

Innocent

Guilty
Inno/Guilty

Innocent

Guilty
Guilty


Alt role

Innocent

Guilty
Inno/Guilty

Innocent

Guilty
Innocent


Alt scry

Innocent

Guilty
xx

Innocent

Innocent
Guilty


Alt both

Innocent

Innocent
Inno/Guilty

Innocent

Innocent
Innocent


Kale dies
Innocent
Innocent


Inno/Guilty
Innocent
Innocent


Guilty


Alt role
Innocent
Innocent


Inno/Guilty
Innocent
Innocent


Innocent


Alt scry
Guilty
Innocent


xx
Innocent
Innocent


Guilty


Alt both
Guilty
Innocent


xx
Innocent
Innocent


Innocent


Clearly, Lex should always scry Random in this situation, and their guilt/innocence would determine who the mafia is. So Lex always dies, and the bottom four rows of the table can be ignored. In addition, Kale should clearly also scry Random. A guilty result indicates that Random must be mafia, and an Innocent result indicates nothing.
So if we lynch Pizza and are wrong, we have a theoretically 62.5% chance of winning. Maybe better than lynching Random first, but Pizza and I both find Random suspicious so maybe if we lynch him first we might get better info on the two of us?? Time to analyze a Sapo lynch.


Scenario
Random mafia




Pizza mafia







Lex
Sapo
Pizza
Kale
Random
Lex
Sapo
Pizza
Kale
Random


Role
Sane
Naive
Insane
Paranoid
Mafia
Naive
Sane
Mafia
Insane
Paranoid


Alt role
Sane
Naive
Paranoid
Insane
Mafia
Naive
Sane
Mafia
Paranoid
Insane


Scry target
Pizza

Random
Pizza
Pizza
Pizza

Random
Pizza
Pizza


Alt scry
Random

Random
Random
Pizza
Random

Random
Random
Pizza


Lex dies


Innocent
Guilty
Inno/Guilty


xx
Innocent
Guilty


Alt role


Guilty
Guilty
Inno/Guilty


Inno/Guilty
Guilty
Innocent


Alt scry


Innocent
Guilty
Inno/Guilty


Inno/Guilty
Guilty
Guilty


Alt both


Guilty
Innocent
xx


Inno/Guilty
Guilty
Innocent


Kale dies
Innocent

Innocent

Inno/Guilty
Innocent

Inno/Guilty

Guilty


Alt role
Innocent

Guilty

Inno/Guilty
Innocent

Inno/Guilty

Innocent


Alt scry
Guilty

Innocent

xx
Innocent

xx

Guilty


Alt both
Guilty

Guilty

xx
Innocent

xx

Innocent


Again, Lex should always scry Random, and her result will always be accurate. Thus, Lex dies. Kale can either scry either Pizza or Random, and if he scries the Mafia, there's a 50% chance that they will be outed. Again, a theoretical 62.5% chance of winning, though here we can choose to test Pizza's mafianess. But would we?
Summary: If we lynch Random, the night 1 scries tell us nothing. If we lynch Pizza, but Random is Mafia, then there's a 50% chance that Random is outed as Mafia. If we lynch Sapo, we can choose either Pizza or Random, and if they're Mafia, there's a 50% chance that they're outed. (If we choose Random, it's exactly the same as if we lynch Pizza, except Sapo dies and Pizza lives). The reason we get less information if we lynch Random is because if he is innocent, Lex is always Naive and Kale dies; whereas if we lynch someone else, Lex must die and Kale might be Insane.
These are all the posts from Random Person that I don't like. The rest of his posts I'm largely neutral on.

Yes, but you would say that, wouldn't you?
Just feels wolfy. Dishonest people are more likely to focus on dishonesty and all that. He had no actual reason to suspect Kale; just a randomly directed quasi-attack.

Yay, someone who knows what they're doing! Now I can stop pretending I do.
Only Mafiosi should pretend.

It does, mafioso. :smallmad:

Seriously, though, folks, pay mind to the fact that only one of us is interested in giving you the information as you know it, not the information as we know it.
Too angry, too eager to attack. Accusation is exaggerated, and spoken to the audience.
Also "the information as we know it" has all sorts of PIS problems. Taking we to refer to himself only as an individual, it implies he has a significant amount of information (mafioso). Taking we to refer to them together, it implies that they hold the same knowledge (ie. Random really is mafia). Weak of course, but wolves make this kind of mistake all the time.

...okay, hang about a moment there. You can't assume you're innocent for the purposes of analysis - or rather, we can't assume that you're innocent for the purposes of analysis, and your contending that we should is disingenuous. You and I are indistinguishable in terms of raw data, and so should equally be up for lynch, Askthepizzaguy. You provided a bunch of analysis, which is helpful, but in a game this small and with Saposhiente available to analyze as well could easily just be a mafioso bluff, on grounds that the analysis is going to get done anyway so it might as well come from you, making you look good.

So, to the rest of the players: there is nothing in it, beyond ephemeral psychological factors, when choosing between lynching pizza and me. Any claims to the contrary should be ignored, barring that Saposhiente's result was on pizza or me and that changes the analysis somehow.
Again, too angry, and too eager to discredit. I wouldn't call doing the analysis a bluff, just a thing to do. Too eager to just throw out all the analysis.
Summary: I find Random Person to be most suspicious. While lynching someone else would have a 50% chance of proving him guilty if he is guilty, this is only useful if we weren't going to lynch him anyway. I would vote for him, but await Lex-Kat's input, seeing as they are confirmed innocent.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Actually, I have only played Dethy Mafia two times. If you want, I can dig for the links. Town won both times as I recall, and I was town both times. It was a different setup, firstly, players could choose who they scried, they could choose not to lynch anyone, and the mafia doesn't know if anyone scried him.

I'll go one further- Saposhiente, I do have you as 24% wolf, but I think I made the correct first guess.

If you want to Askthepizzaguy first, and Random Person second, I am okay with that.

Lex and Aric win the game with village in all cases except the one where you're mafia.

That's a good 76% chance of village winning, I feel. I'd take it.

[Lex-Kat]

The choices are Random Person, as an inexperienced player and making a mistake.

or AskthePizzaGuy, as a somewhat experienced player (only played Dethy twice before), and possibly going for the double-bluff. :smallannoyed:

I see it as a 50/50 chance that PizzaGuy is the one to lynch. I say this, believing him smart enough to try it.

[Saposhiente]

Hm. I still advocate for lynching Random first, then Pizzaguy second (if Random turns out not to be Mafia). If random is not Mafia, then that will be important information to contextualize the conversation between me and Pizzaguy. If we lynch Pizzaguy first then I expect D2 to be "yep, Random is still suspicious, lynch him" and not very productive. Of course, I know that we win 100% of the time in this scenario, but from an unbiased perspective it's not as good.

[Saposhiente]

Welp, Lex-Kat is offline and day ends in 5 hours, so I'm going to follow them anyway and hammer Askthepizzaguy.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Innocent Cop.

Random Person next, please! :smallbiggrin:

[Lex-Kat]

Random Person is relatively new, so if the choice is between those two, and the other is going to die the next day anyway, I'd like to give Random Person some time for experience. PizzaGuy is obviously someone who has played a lot in other places that are not here.

And yes, if you turn out to not be the Mafia, then Random Person is my choice the next day, unless a better choice comes along.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Random Person is relatively new, so if the choice is between those two, and the other is going to die the next day anyway, I'd like to give Random Person some time for experience. PizzaGuy is obviously someone who has played a lot in other places that are not here.

And yes, if you turn out to not be the Mafia, then Random Person is my choice the next day, unless a better choice comes along.

From where I sit, unless something went absolutely nuts, the only people we lynch this game were Random or Sapo, with Random being way out in front.

You only get two lynches to win, and given the odds, it's gotta be random. Wins the game 3 times out of 4.

I mean technically we're waiting to see if I reveal as mafia when I die. Because I would totally continue the charade if I'm hammered dead and the narrator hasn't shown up. I'm theatrical like that. But next round my vote would have been on Random.

[Zjoot]

The Pizza Guy is indeed innocent.

Night begins now. Please send in your actions within 24 hours.

[Saposhiente]

Scries: I'm naive, so it doesn't matter whom I scry. Everyone else should scry Random, except of course Random who could scry me but actually it doesn't matter. (See my table in Analysis for lynch targets and scries, and feel free to ask if you don't understand).

[Lex-Kat]

Innocent Cop.

Random Person next, please!
One of these days, I'll point at you, and you will be a wolf, dang it! :smallannoyed::smalltongue:

[Aric Kale]

So, does that mean Pizza is dead?

[Saposhiente]

Yes .

[Aric Kale]

Wunnerful.

[Askthepizzaguy]

One of these days, I'll point at you, and you will be a wolf, dang it! :smallannoyed::smalltongue:

Ghost of Pizzaguy: Yes, but if you choose not to point at me and I'm a villager, that will be more impressive. I am a very wolfy player in general, it's part of being talkative and aggressive.

[Lex-Kat]

Yeah, but that would just happen to be the time you are a wolf, and I'll be disappointed. :smallamused:

[Askthepizzaguy]

Ghost of Pizzaguy: Oh the suspense.

The narrator is just pulling your legs, I was totes guilty.

[Aric Kale]

Wait...what?

[Saposhiente]

Wait...what?
Pizzaguy is joking around because the narrator is late. (Make sure you sent in that you're scrying Random Person).

[Zjoot]

With apologies for lateness (weekends = no posting for Zjoot) scry results have been sent (except for yours Sapo, :smallwink:) andthe kill results are in, with poor Lex Kat being found dead. She was of course Innocent.

Day two begins and ends in 72 hours, or probably less than that if two people vote for the same target.

[Aric Kale]

My results are in.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Ghost of Pizzaguy: Hi-five Lex. Go team innocent!

[Saposhiente]

Kale, you might as well just claim your result immediately. See my table from yesterday for a Pizza lynch: I got Lex-Kat as Innocent, which tells us nothing (That's why Zjoot didn't send me my result: I already knew it was going to be innocent so there was no point), and Random could give us any result and it wouldn't tell us anything. If you got Random as Guilty, that proves that he is indeed guilty; otherwise, he isn't proven guilty but he's still the most suspicious person so we should lynch him anyway (see my discussion with Lex and Pizzaguy).
As always, if you don't understand the logic behind any of the statements I've made here, feel free to ask and I'll clarify/reiterate.
Kale is proven innocent and I know I'm innocent therefore I point at Random Person

[Aric Kale]

I scried Random_Person as guilty...wondering why we didn't lynch him before...

[Askthepizzaguy]

I scried Random_Person as guilty...wondering why we didn't lynch him before...

Ghost of Pizzaguy: Because I have a very trustworthy face? :smallbiggrin:

[Saposhiente]

Oh man, the triple townfirm, the holy grail! This is why getting the fakescry right as Mafioso is super important.

wondering why we didn't lynch him before...
Because Lex-Kat is allergic to pizza :smallwink::smalltongue:

[Askthepizzaguy]

Oh man, the triple townfirm, the holy grail! This is why getting the fakescry right as Mafioso is super important.

Because Lex-Kat is allergic to pizza :smallwink::smalltongue:

Ghost of Pizzaguy: Dunno why. I've called her alignment correctly three times out of three, while I was a villager each time. ...I guess someone peering into your soul and reading it like a book is a little disturbing.

[TBFProgrammer]

Expressing interest.

Also, for the record, had Aric_Kale scried Lex-Kat it would have been a 100% chance for town victory. The only remaining worlds where Saposhiente could be mafia had Aric as sane (innocent result from scrying Lex). The only remaining worlds where Random could be mafia had Aric as either insane or paranoid (guilty result from scrying Lex). That would have meant that either Aric or Lex would have survived to deliver a result that would be accurate for Random. I'm kind of disappointed that Sapo wasn't playing a brilliant mafioso here, as town definitely would have bought it.

[Lex-Kat]

Evil force-user.

[Disc Lorde]

I noticed that too...but I figured that non-players shouldn't comment on the game until the host officially declared it over.

[Saposhiente]

Also, for the record, had Aric_Kale scried Lex-Kat it would have been a 100% chance for town victory. The only remaining worlds where Saposhiente could be mafia had Aric as sane (innocent result from scrying Lex). The only remaining worlds where Random could be mafia had Aric as either insane or paranoid (guilty result from scrying Lex). That would have meant that either Aric or Lex would have survived to deliver a result that would be accurate for Random. I'm kind of disappointed that Sapo wasn't playing a brilliant mafioso here, as town definitely would have bought it.
Interesting. I didn't consider the possibility because I didn't expect one confirmed innocent scrying another to be the best play, and at the time it was a hypothetical situation that I wasn't even advocating to bring into existence. If I didn't have the privileged position of being the least suspicious unconfirmed person I may have been more likely to do an exhaustive search; for me the winrate was already pretty close to 100%.

[Disc Lorde]

I was thinking Sapo was Mafia, because he was a) doing a lot of analysis while not catching the 100% town win solution, and b) trying to head town off of the 100% town win solution at every turn.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Evil force-user.

"Stop oppressing my culture, (etc)!" :belkar:

:smallbiggrin::smalltongue:

[Lex-Kat]

What!? :eek: I didn't say you were a darksider, just evil. :smallamused:

EDIT: Or should I have called you differently-aligned? :smallconfused:

[Askthepizzaguy]

What!? :eek: I didn't say you were a darksider, just evil. :smallamused:

Ghost of Pizzaguy: And what, pray tell, is wrong with being evil? It's worked out for me so far...

[Saposhiente]

EDIT: Or should I have called you differently-aligned? :smallconfused:

No, that's Chaotic Neutral :smalltongue:

[Askthepizzaguy]

Ghost of Pizzaguy: I'm Neutral Evil. I'm willing to fight for the good guys. Just make it worth my while or I'll feel unappreciated and I'll be forced to stab something with my red lightsaber.

Type 1 Neutral Evil (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/NeutralEvil)

[Lex-Kat]

No, that's Chaotic Neutral :smalltongue:
Ah, yes. Well he's definitely not Chaotic.


Ghost of Pizzaguy: I'm Neutral Evil. I'm willing to fight for the good guys. Just make it worth my while or I'll feel unappreciated and I'll be forced to stab something with my red lightsaber.

Type 1 Neutral Evil (http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/NeutralEvil)
:smallconfused: Hmmmm. The truly scarriest of the evils. In my opinion. This makes me want to lynch you more. :smallbiggrin:

[Duck999]

By now we know it is too late for people to change their scries, and this is the last day, so you couldn't have hurt the game too much by telling them you they should have scried.

[Saposhiente]

By now we know it is too late for people to change their scries, and this is the last day, so you couldn't have hurt the game too much by telling them you they should have scried.

It's not about changing the scries; having missed the 100% win is a strike against me which Random Person might have been able to use to convince Kale to lynch me, theoretically if he hadn't been proven guilty. It only became proper to do post-game spectator talk once Kale hammered Random Person and the game effectively ended (Day is over per the rules; Zjoot just hasn't shown up yet).

[Askthepizzaguy]

Ghost of Pizzaguy: I commend Saposhiente on his restraint in not dancing a jig, having successfully pulled off a mafia win under such circumstances.

(kidding)

(or am I?)

(I'm kidding)

(Maybe)

[TBFProgrammer]

By now we know it is too late for people to change their scries, and this is the last day, so you couldn't have hurt the game too much by telling them you they should have scried.

The game is over and the outcome cannot be changed. The only thing I could potentially have impacted is the MVP vote, for which full hindsight is proper.

[Count Dingdong]

TBFProgrammer for MVP! :smalltongue:

[Zjoot]

Day has indeed ended. Sorry for the wait. Glad to see you guys are at least keeping each other entertained. :smallbiggrin:
Until the end of this week at least, one short check is all the playground I have time for, which means, sadly, the narration is delayed until the weekend.

However, I won't keep you in suspense as far as the results for this game:

Random Person was indeed the mafia. Town wins again! Feel free to discuss MVP, and I'll set up heat three tomorrow.

[Aric Kale]

Huzzah!
Idk about MVP...we could've won Day 1 if we had all listened to AskthePizzaGuy...

[Saposhiente]

I vote for myself. Pizzaguy and I both did analysis and thought that Random Person was the mafioso, and while apparently I did not get the best possible/most complete analysis, neither did Pizzaguy, and unlike him I didn't give actually faulty analysis to be lynched over.

[Fortuna]

Ah well. Good game, all. I consider it damnably ill luck that my first ever game as a wolf was Dethy, where there's no margin for error. In retrospect, my biggest mistake was making an entire claim D1 instead of stepping in all concerned about preventing the mafioso from making a perfect claim and claiming I'd scried someone guilty (since I knew I had been scried by Naive Cop alone, I knew the scries were evenly split, and so I wanted the fifty-fifty on the scry on me being either Sane or Naive). After Pizza revealed his scry, I knew I had lost. Ah well, we live and learn.

[Askthepizzaguy]

MVP: The entire town.

We were all in agreement as to the best course of action, which was to lynch Random Person before end of game.

Ergo, we're all winners.

[Saposhiente]

MVP: The entire town.

We were all in agreement as to the best course of action, which was to lynch Random Person before end of game.

Ergo, we're all winners.

This is a wonderful attitude, but the finals ain't big enough for the four of us :smalltongue:

[Askthepizzaguy]

This is a wonderful attitude, but the finals ain't big enough for the four of us :smalltongue:

Then I can drop the modesty. I am the MVP for finding the mafioso day one, followed by aric_kale for voting correctly, followed by Sapo and Lex for causing a villager lynch.

http://www.giantitp.com/forums/images/sand/icons/icon_thumbsup.png

[Aric Kale]

Then I can drop the modesty. I am the MVP for finding the mafioso day one, followed by aric_kale for voting correctly, followed by Sapo and Lex for causing a villager lynch.

http://www.giantitp.com/forums/images/sand/icons/icon_thumbsup.png

Agreed. AtPG for Pres.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Also, I'm clearly the funny one. You want your finale to be memorable, don'tcha? :smallbiggrin:

[Saposhiente]

Then I can drop the modesty. I am the MVP for finding the mafioso day one, followed by aric_kale for voting correctly, followed by Sapo and Lex for causing a villager lynch.

http://www.giantitp.com/forums/images/sand/icons/icon_thumbsup.png

This is misrepresentative. I independently found Random Person, but followed Lex because they were confirmed innocent and my vote belonged to them.
And if you hadn't screwed up your analysis you wouldn't have gotten lynched :smallwink:

[Askthepizzaguy]

This is misrepresentative. I independently found Random Person, but followed Lex because they were confirmed innocent and my vote belonged to them.
And if you hadn't screwed up your analysis you wouldn't have gotten lynched :smallwink:

You lynched the pizza, therefore you lose the MVP. :smallbiggrin: It's that simple.

[Saposhiente]

Also, I'm clearly the funny one. You want your finale to be memorable, don'tcha? :smallbiggrin:
Shush, you requested that this not be your official representation, you still have another chance to get in. If anything, that should disqualify you from being MVP here.

You lynched the pizza, therefore you lose the MVP. :smallbiggrin: It's that simple.
Askthepizzaguy is analyzing assuming that he's a villager again; this is highly suspicious and we should lynch him. Again. :smallannoyed::smallwink:
(This is not an MVP vote. I am still voting for myself for MVP, just also that we lynch Pizzaguy.)

[Askthepizzaguy]

I think self-voting for MVP should disqualify both of us, and we should make Aric_kale the MVP. :smallbiggrin:

I'm voting Aric_Kale for MVP

Maybe not great for analysis, but he was the only one voting the mafia on Day One. Heck, I didn't even place a vote.

Also, since he voted Random Person on Day One and Day Two as his final vote choice, he therefore voted correctly at the end of every round.

- - - Updated - - -

You may self-vote now, Aric. Someone else nominated you fair and square. :smallcool:

[Saposhiente]

Askthepizzaguy is obviously a wolf trying to buddy up with Kale. Kale might be a wolf, but it's more likely that Pizzaguy is trying to come off as "the most reasonable one", get Kale elected, then manipulate Kale into lynching the wrong person, then defend Kale while the village and his fellow wolves lynch Kale, and come out of the entire affair looking perfect.

MVP: The entire town.

We were all in agreement as to the best course of action, which was to lynch Random Person before end of game.

Ergo, we're all winners.
Look at him here, trying to ego boost everyone with an option he knows is impossible, just to try to make people like him more and irrationally vote with him.
Summary: I don't often vote for him, his antics usually make people more fearful than they should be. But here, he's clearly trying to manipulate Town. Lynch Askthepizzaguy.

[Askthepizzaguy]

You did that already, and it didn't win the game for you... until you went and voted with Aric_Kale, the MVP of this game.

:smallwink:

Face facts Sapo, you are probably the best player here in terms of skill, but Aric_Kale technically outperformed you this game. Plus, you kind of botched the diplo here at the MVP proceedings by self-nominating. Always a faux pas.

:smallbiggrin:

[Saposhiente]

Aric_Kale technically outperformed you this game.
I disagree. This game was 100% solved by analysis; at that point, voting don't even matter as long as you vote for the mafioso in the end. And you can't say that it's a judge of better suspicions because we all had the same suspicion. Following Lex with my vote was the correct play and I stand by it.

[Aric Kale]

I'm not gonna self-vote for the MVP, because all I offered to this game was my scry results and votes. Sapo and atpg had the most analysis, and while AtPG may have screwed up his analysis, he came to the correct conclusion in a way that I could comprehend with the little Werewolf Games knowledge I have. Saposhiente for lynch and askthepizzaguy for MVP...

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'm just having a little fun with you, Saposhiente.

Vote: Saposhiente for MVP. He wants it more and is a skilled analyst, and voted correctly at lynch or lose.

We still have Lex and Random_person's votes to count.

[Saposhiente]

@Kale: I came to the right conclusion! And if you didn't understand what I was saying, why didn't you ask me to clarify?
Lex, help me out over here.
@Pizza: I knew you were going for the manipulation! I'm onto you :smallamused:

[Askthepizzaguy]

Sapo, you seem a little rustled. :smalltongue:

[Saposhiente]

For the record, it wasn't your tactic that rustled me, it was your tactic's success that did.

[Aric Kale]

By the time I had fully decided that I had no idea what was going on, Pizza posted his analysis.
At this point, I don't really care who gets MVP, I had fun.

[Lex-Kat]

I believe the MVP should go to one of the two who did analysis. By the time I got on, they both had already done theirs, so I wasn't inclined to do my own. Possibly a mistake on my part, and since I was lynch-happy for PizzaGuy's bloodsauce, I followed Saposhiente's over PizzaGuy's. Both had Random Person as a choice, and each other as the possible other. For me, it was a 50/50 chance. And I lost.

I'll abstain from voting, and let Random_Person make the final decission, unless it ends with a tie. If so, I'll make a decision then.

[Fortuna]

My own reckoning is for Saposhiente. I still dislike Pizza's choice to analyze as though he were innocent - even if I hadn't been mafia, even if I hadn't been his target as a result, I would have misliked that, whereas Sapo's play was solid from a Bayesian perspective all game.

[Zjoot]

Alright, looks to me like it's going to be Sapo. If there's no objections, then we have our second finalist, and Askthepizzaguy will take off his Doctor Whooves mask and be shuffled back into the deck for heat three or four.

Rolling the dice gives the following players in heat three: TBFProgrammer, Count Dingdong, Penguinator, reaverb, and Studoku Your roles are being sent now. As usual, please post in thread to confirm that you are ready to go

[Count Dingdong]

I'm ready to go. :smallsmile:

[Penguinator]

Can we hold off until Saturday? I'm on choir tour.

[Zjoot]

I wasn't planning on starting until Monday, actually, since then I'll be done with my finals and I'll have the time to attend to the game properly.

[Studoku]

I'm ready.

[TBFProgrammer]

Spreadsheet analyzer... abandoned.
Spreadsheet version of full world list... complete.
Dynamic world-list generator... missing interface.

Sufficiently ready.

[reaverb]

I'm ready.

In addition, it might be good to have a first-in first-out system for heats. I assumed that and there was a chance I could have missed this.

Also, it might be a good idea to update the title, which is two heats out of date.

[Chessgeek]

Thread titles can't be changed after a certain amount of time, 30 days I think.

[Askthepizzaguy]

A moderator can change thread titles on the other boards I frequent. Wonder if that's possible here.

[Chessgeek]

I think it has something to do with the forum software. I doubt that the mods have control over it. If you want, you can PM Rawhide (or another mod) and ask.

Also, posting interest in playing in this.

[Saposhiente]

Moderators can chance the title of any thread, always.

[Zjoot]

It looks like they changed the thread title thing in the forum update. I was just so used to not being able to change it I didn't think to try.

[Penguinator]

Okay, well, I have a meeting all weekend in a world without internet, so I guess Monday? Sorry.

[Zjoot]

No problem. I don't like to do internet things over the weekend anyways if I can avoid it. Anyways, if we're all present and accounted for, we'll begin:

Day One begins now and will last for 72 hours, or until someone reaches three votes. If there is any problem with this, let me know. I know there's been a bit of delay since I sent the roles out.

Also, a question was sent to me about measures to prevent the mafia from getting information, and their legality within the rules. I'm going to go ahead and say that I personally find it to be a bit against the spirit of the game to try to prevent mafia from making their claim. It's their one big strategic move, and I think they should be allowed to win or lose based on how well they play their false claim, and not because they were denied the chance to make it completely. A few limitations to play around are fine; Tom's method works nicely by giving the mafia room to strategize without giving them full control of what they say. I'm just going to say consider the spirit of the game and try to win through deduction and analysis if you can, but I'm not going to outright ban anything.

[reaverb]

The scry is broken up into 2 parts - a who and a what. In the past to prevent mafia from making a clever claim going last people have revealed scries piecewise. Everyone reveals their first bit of information and then after that they reveal the second bit of info in reverse order (12345-54321). Stops each person from having too much data to make a full scry claim based on in-depth analysis. If mafia reveals first, they have full info for the last part of their scry claim but none for the first part. If they reveal last (5) they have one piece of information from everyone else to make theri full claim and that's it. Just reminding everybody of Tom's method, since it's been a while. I do want to use this.

reaverb scried Penguinator

Oh, and for future reference, can we refer to Innocent and Guilty as "I" and "G"? The names are actually arbitrary, since there are just as many Insane cops as Sane cops and Paranoid cops as Innocent cops, but using the full words is confusing because they state verdicts.

[Penguinator]

I, too, am in support of Tom's method.

I, Penguinator scried someone as Innocent.

I don't think saying "I" or "G" would help me more than saying "innocent" or "guilty..."

Either way, I am not the Paranoid Cop.

[TBFProgrammer]

TBFProgrammer scried Count DingDong as ???

A slight addendum to Tom's strategy as quoted: while proclaiming the blindlingly obvious is fine (x can't be paranoid/naive), please do not post analysis until all results are in (unless someone is MIA and no extension/replacement is forthcoming). The mafioso has to do their primary analysis work in this phase and town can't generally get much mileage from analysis until everything has been posted.

[Count Dingdong]

Count Dingdong scried ??? as Guilty. I believe the last person we're waiting on is Studoku, then?

[Studoku]

So as the fifth player to reveal, I just reveal my entire claim?

Studoku scried Count Dingdong as Guilty

[Count Dingdong]

Well, that's indeed interesting. I scried Studoku as Guilty.

[TBFProgrammer]

I must say that I'm pleasantly surprised by that result, Count.

TBFProgrammer scried Count Dingdong as Guilty.

And yes, things are definitely getting very interesting. I think I have enough information to start looking at lynch/scry targets for the night phase.

[Penguinator]

Penguinator scried reaverb as Innocent.

[reaverb]

reaverb scried Penguinator as Guilty

Ok, since Penguinator is the only Innocent scry we know he's the naive cop (confirmed town)

Since I scried him as guilty we know I'm not the sane cop.

More analysis to come.

- - - Updated - - -

Ok, I'm also confirmed town, because if I wasn't town one of the Count Dingdong, Studoku, or TBFProgrammer would have to be the Sane Cop. Since none of them scried me, they would not have gotten a Guilty result, so I cannot be Mafia.

TBFProgrammer is the another confirmed town member, because of the same logic. If he was Mafia, one of Count Dingdong, Studoku, or myself would have to be the Sane Cop, but none of us scired him, so we would not have gotten a guilty result.

Congrats, either Count Dingdong or Studoku is Mafia, so we're assured a win.

[TBFProgrammer]

reaverb: Guilty on Penguinator
Penguinator: Innocent on reaverb
TBFProgrammer: Guilty on Count Dingdong
Count Dingdong: Guilty on Studoku
Studoku: Guilty on Count Dingdong

Penguinator cleared by unique result (must be naive).
Sane must have scried mafia and mafia must have claimed a guilty result.
reaverb was not scried by sane (no guilty result on him).
TBFProgrammer was not scried by sane (no guilty result on him).

Remaining world list corroborates:



reaverb
Penguinator
TBFProgrammer
Count Dingdong
Studoku


Insane
Naive
Sane
Mafia
Paranoid


Insane
Naive
Paranoid
Sane
Mafia


Insane
Naive
Paranoid
Mafia
Sane


Paranoid
Naive
Insane
Sane
Mafia



Only Count Dingdong and Studoku can be mafia. One Today and the other Tomorrow if the game doesn't end, town victory is assured.

I'm guessing Studoku

- - - Updated - - -

Edit: nevermind, it's a straight guess, mafia had the following knowledge after I made my claim:

reaverb got guilty, I got guilty, other suspect got guilty (1 innocent result, used by Penguinator).
Penguinator did not scry him (Penguinator's scry is irrelevant after claiming guilty).
Other suspect scried him (Studoku needed a sane scry on him, Count Dingdong needed a paranoid/sane scry on him, this can't be Penguinator and the other targets were announced).
This means that only Penguinator's target was unknown to the mafia before Count's first reveal or Studoku's reveal.

[Penguinator]

Here's a table I'd worked out before reaverb posted. Changed a bit to reflect Penguinator = Naive.

reaverb scries Penguinator as Guilty
Penguinator scries reaverb as Innocent
TBFProgrammer scries Count Dingdong as Guilty
Count Dingdong scries Studoku as Guilty
Studoku scries Count Dingdong as Guilty

Penguinator is the Mafia:
Count Dingdong is Insane/Paranoid
TBFProgrammer is Insane/Paranoid
Studoku is Insane/Paranoid
reaverb is Sane/Paranoid
Verdict: Penguinator cannot be the Mafia. (No Naive Cop)

reaverb is the Mafia:
Penguinator is Naive
Count Dingdong is Paranoid/Insane
Studoku is Insane/Paranoid
TBFProgrammer is Insane/Paranoid
Verdict: reaverb cannot be the Mafia. (No Sane Cop)

TBFProgrammer is the Mafia:
reaverb is Paranoid/Insane
Penguinator is Naive
Count Dingdong is Paranoid/Insane
Studoku is Paranoid/Insane
Verdict: TBFProgrammer cannot be the Mafia. (No Sane Cop)

Count Dingdong is the Mafia:
reaverb is Insane/Paranoid
Penguinator is Naive
TBFProgrammer is Sane/Paranoid
Studoku is Sane/Paranoid
Verdict: Count Dingdong is possible Mafia.

Studoku is the Mafia:
reaverb is Insane/Paranoid
Penguinator is Naive
TBFProgrammer is Paranoid/Insane
Count Dingdong is Paranoid/Sane
Verdict: Studoku is possible Mafia.

[TBFProgrammer]

Alright, I think we're all in agreement on the rigorous logical parts. Anyone else care to join in the voting?

[Penguinator]

Studoku. My best arguments are for him. He's newer, so he's more likely to make a mistake. Count Dingdong is experienced and would be able to make the best use of the information before him. It's also easier to believe that there was a single scry on TBF and a single scry on Studoku, although that's not necessarily true.

That, and I dug around in their recent posts and it appears that neither was lurking; their first posts in this thread were made very quickly after returning to the forum. Though I will note that Count Dingdong appears to be lurking presently.

[reaverb]

I'm also guessing Studoku based on the fact Count Dingdong probably would not have fakeclaimed a Guilty Scry. That's enough to kill Studoku.

A chart showing why TFTProgramming must be innocent:
http://i.imgur.com/A77HAQR.png

The Red is the things we can be sure about because of Penguinator's sole Innocent scry, Blue is stuff which would be true if TFTProgrammer was Mafia. Notice how this leaves Studoku, Count, or myself with the Sane cop role, even though none of us scried TFTProgrammer.

The same logic applies to me, just switch the names "TFTProgrammer" and "reaverb"

Heh, it looks like the hard part is going to be deciding who gets to be MVP.

[Count Dingdong]

I just got back from my final final, but seeing as how everyone else has posted analysis, it doesn't look likely that I'll be MVP. That said, it looks like we've won, so that's very nice. :smallsmile:

I know I'm town, so based on the above logics by everyone else, Studoku is the Mafia. I expect him to say the same. However, what I can do is make sure that he's the one lynched to let town have a D1 win as opposed to mislynching me for the assured win tomorrow. Take the two scenarios: I'm mafia, or Studoku's mafia. If I were mafia, I would know that the Paranoid Cop and Sane Cop scried me. That would require two guilty results on me, and I knew that there was only one innocent result posted and one not targeting me, meaning Studoku and TBF would both have scried me quilty. In that case, there would be three guilty results already, and it would be completely idiotic of me to add a fourth guilty result to it. Four guilty results would guarantee my loss in one or two days. If I were mafia, I would have said that I scried someone as innocent to give any chance of winning.

Now, let's look at Studoku as mafia. He would have to know that either Paranoid or Sane Cop scried him, and it would have to be me, since everyone else had said either Innocent or someone other than him. If he knew that the Paranoid Cop scried him, he'd know that one of reaverb and TBF would return Innocent and the other Guilty (the Sane/Naive and the Insane). In that case, it might make sense to say that I was guilty, since then there would be 2 innocent and 3 guilty scries. But that's not a possible universe: we did not get 2 innocent scries. So let's look at if I'm Sane. Studoku would have had to know that I was the Sane cop and by extension that Penguinator would have to be the Naive Cop. He couldn't be Paranoid with an Innocent scry. He couldn't be Sane with an Innocent scry, since the mafia was scried by Sane. He couldn't be Insane with an Innocent scry, since the mafia was NOT scried by Insane. Thus, the unknowns would be TBF and reaverb, the Paranoid and Insane. That would guarantee another guilty scry. ...actually, this then gets to the same logic as me. Why in the world would the mafia claim that they scried anyone as guilty in this game? It happened, for sure. Regardless of what happened, one of Studoku and I is the mafia, and we both claimed we scried someone as guilty when we had to have KNOWN that there were three other guilty results. I can say that I'm experienced and would want to win and would realize that a fourth guilty scry would spell my likely loss, regardless of who I said it was on. I haven't seen Studoku around much, and he's more likely to have made such a mistake than I.

...and on preview, I seem to have missed all the analysis while writing my own, so... yay? Well, I can safely say that we made the right decision in lynching Studoku, though there's no way to change decisions now.

- - - Updated - - -

@Penguinator: I'm apparently lurking because I take an hour to write a post of analysis. Everyone else writes analysis too fast for me, it seems... :smalleek:

[TBFProgrammer]

@Penguinator: I'm apparently lurking because I take an hour to write a post of analysis. Everyone else writes analysis too fast for me, it seems... :smalleek:

I think the rest of us were doing incremental analysis as the results came in. This limits the amount of stream-of-consciousness in your post, allowing it to be more concise. I certainly was. I had gotten as far as starting to script arguments for lynching you in the case of the following course of events:

Penguinator reveals scry on Count Dingdong
reaverb reveals innocent result
[This is the only eventuality where at least 3 people could still have been mafia after I gave my result]
We lynch Studoku
[Easy to swing, no 100% win scenario and both the Count and myself could argue that we would have been aware of reaverb and Penguinator being cleared by our second result when Studoku wouldn't have been]

[Count Dingdong]

Ah, that would explain it. I was in the middle of studying for my final, so I only glanced at the results and figured I'd do heavy analysis once I was finally done. Turns out that was just too late, and analysis took too much time for starting behind everyone else.

[Saposhiente]

@Penguinator: I'm apparently lurking because I take an hour to write a post of analysis. Everyone else writes analysis too fast for me, it seems... :smalleek:

You're lurking because you didn't even post during the Day at all other than to report your result. :smallwink:
People who don't get it: Day ended when reaverb hammered Studoku.

[Count Dingdong]

You're lurking because you didn't even post during the Day at all other than to report your result. :smallwink:
People who don't get it: Day ended when reaverb hammered Studoku.


A slight addendum to Tom's strategy as quoted: while proclaiming the blindlingly obvious is fine (x can't be paranoid/naive), please do not post analysis until all results are in (unless someone is MIA and no extension/replacement is forthcoming). The mafioso has to do their primary analysis work in this phase and town can't generally get much mileage from analysis until everything has been posted.
((Bolding by me))

Because of the above, I posted no analysis until all results were in. I posted my result as soon as I saw that the game had begun, and I then posted the second part as soon as I saw Studoku had posted his. All results were in a bit after my final began. A two-hour final. At the end of which everyone else had already posted their analysis. At which point I began writing my own analysis. During which everyone else voted, and day ended. Maybe I should have had my analysis written ahead of time or somehow gotten on during my final, but I feel finals are a bit more important right now. Still, I'd rather not be out of the running for MVP simply because the times worked better for everyone else. But I'll wait for Zjoot to post results before discussing my case for MVP.

Also, shouldn't you have quoted me, not TBFProgrammer's quote of me? :smallconfused: Edit: On closer inspection, you didn't even quote TBFProgrammer's quote of me. You quoted a different post which doesn't even contain what you quoted? ...what happened there? :smallconfused:

[Zjoot]

Well, that was quick. Day 1 has ended

Studoku was lynched. He was the Mafia! Congratulations to town. Please begin discussion about who should be mvp of this game.

[Saposhiente]

...what happened there? :smallconfused:
Fixed. :smalltongue:

[Count Dingdong]

The analysis this time was simple, and, well, pretty much everyone did it quickly and correctly. I realize I was late to the discussion, but should I really be faulted for timing which I could not predict? As it was, either Studoku or I was the mafia, and one of us would be lynched one day, the other the next. As town, I had to insure that we did not lynch the wrong person first. This happened, though not because of my analysis/argument which came late and to which others had reached. No, we didn't lynch the wrong person because I have a reputation for experience, by which no one suspected me as mafia even though I was a candidate. This is my claim to MVP, and I'll leave it to others to decide whether it's sufficient enough. This was a town overwhelming victory due to Studoku's mistake, and really anyone could be MVP as a result. Perhaps I don't deserve it due to being late for analysis. If so, that's fine, and I would push for either TBFProgrammer or Penguinator for MVP. Yes, reaverb was the first with analysis; he was the last to reveal. However, if his position were switched with mine, there would have been more debate as to whether reaverb or Studoku were the mafia. I doubt the same could be said for TBFProgrammer or Penguinator.

[TBFProgrammer]

Penguinator put forward the clearest case for lynching Studoku. The Count and I both stumbled over how much he would have known in arriving there and reaverb's case was a shadow of Penguinator's. This indicates that Penguinator may have influenced reaverb's vote, which would be the only thing setting one of the town apart from any other in a meaningful and pro-town way.

[Tom the Mime]

Well that was quick. I'm kinda hoping that Penguinator gets MVP to continue the streak of the naive cop going through.

Word of advice for any future mafia out there - if you're told that the sane cop has scried you but the insane one hasn't, it is almost always a bad idea to say you scried someone as guilty. It may not go as badly as it did here but it's unlikely to end well for you. The past two games also show that you generally want to avoid having an identical scry claim to someone else if at all possible as mafia.

[reaverb]

reaverb's case was a shadow of Penguinator's. This indicates that Penguinator may have influenced reaverb's vote, which would be the only thing setting one of the town apart from any other in a meaningful and pro-town way.Please don't assign motivations to other people. I thought Studoku was guilty when I first posted may analysis (before anybody else had the full information), but waited in case anybody would point out a flaw in my logic. After you came up with the same thing more or less independently, I decided to post a Studoku vote when I finished my (rather redundant in retrospect) chart. I didn't even see Penguinator's post until after posting.

I'll vote for MVP later in case somebody makes a strong argument for or against. As I mentioned choosing MVP will probably be more difficult than finding the Mafia. :smallbiggrin:

Just as with Heat Two, I'm curious if the Mafia, Studoku, has any opinion.

[Saposhiente]

Please don't assign motivations to other people.
Welcome to Werewolf, your motivations are always suspect. :smallamused:
(Granted, you no longer had any chance of being guilty, but still.)

[reaverb]

I guess I'll vote for myself, reaverb, for being punctual. On the list of Werewolf virtues, "punctual" does not rank very high, but it's better than nothing.

[Saposhiente]

So, you guys gonna finish voting or what?

[Count Dingdong]

I've been waiting for Studoku and Penguinator. If they don't arrive, I guess I'll support TBF's nomination of Penguinator. Still, I'd like to see what our mafia thinks of it? Has anyone contacted Studoku?

[Saposhiente]

Obviously they either are not paying attention or forgot. If they're subscribed to the thread, our postings here will alert them. Otherwise you could try a PM.

[Penguinator]

I didn't necessarily want to vote for myself, but I don't like reaverb's self vote for being "punctual." In part because I was busy writing the first post and he beat me to it. He was also the last to vote, and while first to "analyze," he was also the last to give information, so he could have been sitting there figuring everything out for himself and withholding it from us. He also added some things later which TBF or I had already pointed out. So, I disagree with the "punctual" vote.

I was also waiting to see if TBF would change his vote because his "theory" didn't seem to hold.

I guess I'll vote for myself (Penguinator) to avoid a three-way deadlock.

[reaverb]

I didn't necessarily want to vote for myself, but I don't like reaverb's self vote for being "punctual." In part because I was busy writing the first post and he beat me to it. He was also the last to vote, and while first to "analyze," he was also the last to give information, so he could have been sitting there figuring everything out for himself and withholding it from us. He also added some things later which TBF or I had already pointed out. So, I disagree with the "punctual" vote.

I was also waiting to see if TBF would change his vote because his "theory" didn't seem to hold.

I guess I'll vote for myself (Penguinator) to avoid a three-way deadlock. Nobody has said there is any significant meaningful distinction between the cops. (Also there isn't a three-way deadlock you already have 2 votes)

I would like to play in Heat 4 or 5 if possible.

[Saposhiente]

Perhaps you can compromise, you can elect one guy as MVP and send more to play another game, since we're short of players anyway. "Second place second chance" sort of thing.

[TFT]

Perhaps you can compromise, you can elect one guy as MVP and send more to play another game, since we're short of players anyway. "Second place second chance" sort of thing.

That isn't really fair to those of us who have been waiting to play in a round, however, especially since the pool of who played each round was randomly chosen. I know the problem with who to pick if 25 players don't sign up is a problem, but I would personally feel better about random chance to everyone who's played then second place second chance if it comes to adding old players to the final pair of rounds.

Just my personal opinion as a player.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Two more cents:

I think everyone that rands mafia should automatically get to play again.

[Saposhiente]

Actually, although the mafioso has a lower winrate than town, if Town wins each player has only a 1/4 chance of being selected MVP, so as long as the Mafioso doesn't screw up his opening claim he has the highest individual chance of going on to the finals.

[Zjoot]

Ok, so as far as I can tell it's looking to be Penguinator for the win, but you can continue to discuss at your leisure. The question now is who do we have to fill the fourth spot in round 4? I'll ask in WW Central first, to make it more fair to the players who have been waiting for heat four. (Otherwise, everyone else gets two extra chances to play, and they only get one) If I can't find anybody soon, then I'll go ahead and open it up to players from previous rounds.

[Murska]

I can join, I suppose. Never tried this before.

[Internet Flea]

Is this still recruiting? I'll play, if only to throw a wrench into the town analysis machine.

[Penguinator]

Is this still recruiting? I'll play, if only to throw a wrench into the town analysis machine.

Internet Flea! It's been so long!

[Zjoot]

Is this still recruiting? I'll play, if only to throw a wrench into the town analysis machine.

Hey, you're here! Rad. Yeah there's still five slots open at the moment. I'm right now sending out roles to the players in heat four, Murska, Tanar Aerdoth, The Fiery Tower, Chessgeek and Askthepizzaguy, and that will start on Monday if everyone's posted ready to play.

After that, Heat 5 will be Internet Flea and anyone else who signs up, plus people from previous heats who want another shot.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Aw, I got my role, I can't start playing now? :smallbiggrin:

[Murska]

Ayup, I'm here.

[Visor]

Haven't played Dethy in a while. Shouldn't take too much of my time, I'll play in the next round.

[TFT]

Here, would like to wait til sunday or monday to start. Drove 6-8 miles today and have a sister's graduation stuffs tomorrow.