The siege...why make so much of the numbers?

[Kiero]

I must admit I'm a little perplexed by one thing in the whole siege storyline: the obsession so many of the characters have with the numbers facing them. Specifically because a well-designed fortification is a force multiplier, giving the defenders an advantage against trying to assault it. They're not meeting them in open battle, so the numbers become a lot less relevant. The design of the place should channel the attackers into kill-zones and mines, and cut down the viable attack routes.

People might talk about the magic available to Xykon's force - well surely there exists effective counter-magic as part of any defensive strategy too.

Not even the large undead contingent is necessarily decisive; the Azure City has numerous clerics and even low-level ones can turn zombies.

Earlier (pre-gunpowder) fortresses could comfortably hold attackers of double or triple their size. The later ones you needed at least five or more times the size of the defending army to have a chance of success - and that with digging parallels and reducing the walls with bombardment.

So what gives? Why are they making so much of the size of Xykon's force?

[Monseigneur]

To build dramatic tension.

[Demented]

It's important to know whether the coming battle is a "Completely winnable", "Barely Winnable" or "Suicidal Disaster" type of situation. The numbers help you determine that, and that's why the numbers are important.

Just because you're fortified and they aren't doesn't make the numbers any less significant. As it is, the characters have assumed it will be an even fight. Xykon has 3x the forces, the fortifications are a 3x multiplier (given Chang's random guess). They assume they will win, because an even fight is in favor of the defender, but it also means heavy casualties....

[Jawajoey]

The defense "multiplier" still relies on numbers. What if the multiplier was X4 and the attackers had 7 times as many people? You'd want to know the numbers. It's not like the defense multiplier just wipes away all the significance of numbers, it just adjusts it.

[Axl_Rose]

I thought it was in Red Cloak's plan to have Xykon move in on his own first to draw the bulk of enemy fire?

[Demented]

That hasn't been stated yet. Though, given Redcloak's expresion, and the phylactery, that's not a bad idea. "Bite my lich's damage resistance, 1st-level warriors!"

[Miles Invictus]

So...subterfuge! He lets Xykon get smashed, and presses the attack anyway. Without a clear target to eliminate, Azure City is overwhelmed. Then, Redcloak can either revive Xykon or smash the phylactery at his leisure.

[Cifer]

As others said, numbers in a siege are even more important - the attacker can go packing if he doesn't have at least three times the numbers of the defender, which Xykon does.


People might talk about the magic available to Xykon's force - well surely there exists effective counter-magic as part of any defensive strategy too.
Xykon and Redcloak are probably the highest level characters on the field, so breaking their spells will be pretty tough.


Not even the large undead contingent is necessarily decisive; the Azure City has numerous clerics and even low-level ones can turn zombies.
Turn? Sure, but you'd have to destroy them to make a real difference, because turning just delays the problem for some rounds - and you need fourth-level clerics to destroy zombies (or turn ghouls) because of their HD. Oh, has it been mentioned that there are only about 60 clerics capable of doing that?

[Demented]

Actually, the third-level and lower Clerics can turn quite a bit of undead. They'll just have a problem with the ghasts. A first level Cleric with 10 charisma can turn 4 zombies, three times a day, 40% of the time. With maximum rolls, such a Cleric could turn 7 zombies or even 3 ghasts.

Though, each zombie will only be incapacitated for one minute.

Edit:
Assuming 1:1:1 distributions of levels....
First-level Clerics: 450 or so zombies.
Second-level Clerics: 620 or so zombies.
Third-level Clerics: 890 or so zombies.
Total: 1960 or about 2000 zombies.

Well, it doesn't sound so good now, but it's enough to have at least some significance. *shrug*

[Professor Tanhauser]

Actually I have to agree that numbers aren't everything. It looked like every member of the ACDF, even the grunts, shown in OotS421 had at least some body armor. Most of the hobs probably just have filthy rags to wear.

Armor saves add up over time, you know, so numbers alone aren't the whole story.

[idioscosmos]

Earlier (pre-gunpowder) fortresses could comfortably hold attackers of double or triple their size. The later ones you needed at least five or more times the size of the defending army to have a chance of success - and that with digging parallels and reducing the walls with bombardment.

So what gives? Why are they making so much of the size of Xykon's force?

It wouldn't be very dramatic if Xykon had 7 guys*. It would just look kind of wimpy. As a long time wargamer and student of military history, 3X is the magic number - you need three times the defenders forces if they're entrenched/in fortifications** - so troop wise, they're pretty much even. The fact Xyclon and Redcloak are (from what I've seen) pretty much the highest level spellcasters puts the defenders at a pretty serious disadvantage. I doubt Var and "Un-natural acts of Wizardry" girl can go toe-to-toe with them for long.



*But what a magnificent 7. There's a plot that's never been used - the good guys hold the city, but the bad guys have a few high level charachters riding in like the horsemen of Xykonocolypse.

**With some exceptions, like the germans taking Eben Emael with 85 glider troops (vs 1200 in one of the biggest fortresses in Europe at the time) on May 10th, 1940.

[Jacob_Gallagher]

One gate. Big 'Murder Hole' right inside entrance to gate. Very narrow corridor, only three men can fit, get twenty backups and a ton of clerics to heal them so fast they don't go down. That would be an unstoppable defence of the main entrance.

Note: Murder Holes are a place where the enemy breaks down the gate, runs in, goes through a corridor... and surprise, surprise, there's grating in the cieling, and defenders can shoot down or pur boiling water/tar, etc.

[Snake-Aes]

Actually I have to agree that numbers aren't everything. It looked like every member of the ACDF, even the grunts, shown in OotS421 had at least some body armor. Most of the hobs probably just have filthy rags to wear.

Armor saves add up over time, you know, so numbers alone aren't the whole story.
They seemed quite armored for me (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0300.html).

[Setra]

The MitD could probably wipe out most if not all of Azure City by himself.

Not that we'll actually SEE him. Just saying.

[Tharr]

Real weird point maybe the speech of Elan could have become more interesting if he pointed out nobody knows V gender so maybe the MITD and him could sit on the reserves benched.

[averagejoe]

Don't forget that Xykon also has air troops (as seen in Snake-Aes' link). They could provide a fairly significant advantage to Xykon. Asure City doesn't exactly have top notch air defenses.

[Setra]

Don't forget that Xykon also has air troops (as seen in Snake-Aes' link). They could provide a fairly significant advantage to Xykon. Asure City doesn't exactly have top notch air defenses.
From what we've seen so far, no they really don't have that great of air defenses.

That and "It's not like they're gonna be invaded before they can repair it". That means something, possibly that the specific place blown up will be crucial in the defense of the town.

[Ariko]

I wonder after reading this, if very many people recall at least 1 or 2 warlords taking their troops with them when they left. That would change the numbers at least a little in Xykon's favor, depending on how many soldiers left.

[Hel65]

Do not discount the fact that, as Elan said, fallen Azure city defenders may join attacking force if Xykon or Redcloak are around.

[Elliot Kane]

Numbers are important in any battle, but the most crucial factor in this case is morale.

From Redcloak's initial description of the Hobgoblins, they are very military minded and live for war. Most of the defenders of Azure City have never even been in a fight. As such, the starting morale of the Hobgobs will be vastly higher.

Numbers are going to play into that because the very inexperienced defenders are going to see this massive wave of Hobgobs and undead storming their walls, led by a lich on a bone dragon. Their morale is going to be somewhere underneath the fortress cowering in terror at that point.

Barring a miracle, the defenders are looking at appalling casualties, which they'll certainly know.

[Wardog]

It's important to know whether the coming battle is a "Completely winnable", "Barely Winnable" or "Suicidal Disaster" type of situation. The numbers help you determine that, and that's why the numbers are important.

Just because you're fortified and they aren't doesn't make the numbers any less significant. As it is, the characters have assumed it will be an even fight. Xykon has 3x the forces, the fortifications are a 3x multiplier (given Chang's random guess). They assume they will win, because an even fight is in favor of the defender, but it also means heavy casualties....


Shame they didn't build their city on a mountaintop. Then one veteran phalanx could hold their own against anything short of multiple armor units.

Civ2 combat rules FTW!


Although that would probably be more likely to work in Erfworld than Oots.


(For those who didn't play Civ2 or don't remember the rules:
A phalanx (bronze-age spearman) had a defence of 2, and 10hp.
Marines and Cavalry, some of the tougest pre-armor ground units, had an attack of 8, and 20hp. Armor itself had 10 attack and 30hp

But a mountains gave a 3x defence multiplier, as did city walls. Veteran units got a 50% bonus (1.5x multiplier), and units that dug in got an extra 25%. So the phalanx could get 2x3x3x1.5x1.25 = 33.75 defence, which, in combination with (un)lucky roles, could result in unbelievably embarrasing loses for the attacker.

I set up such a siege once as an experiment, using the scenario editior, and lost about 8 marines without doing significant damage to the phalanx).

[bluish_wolf]

Actually, the third-level and lower Clerics can turn quite a bit of undead. They'll just have a problem with the ghasts. A first level Cleric with 10 charisma can turn 4 zombies, three times a day, 40% of the time. With maximum rolls, such a Cleric could turn 7 zombies or even 3 ghasts.

Though, each zombie will only be incapacitated for one minute.

Edit:
Assuming 1:1:1 distributions of levels....
First-level Clerics: 450 or so zombies.
Second-level Clerics: 620 or so zombies.
Third-level Clerics: 890 or so zombies.
Total: 1960 or about 2000 zombies.

Well, it doesn't sound so good now, but it's enough to have at least some significance. *shrug*

You also have to factor in the fact that Redcloak and any of the hobgoblin clerics are going to be bolstering them.

[Teron]

I wonder after reading this, if very many people recall at least 1 or 2 warlords taking their troops with them when they left. That would change the numbers at least a little in Xykon's favor, depending on how many soldiers left.
I assumed Hinjo didn't actually let them leave, what with commandeering all the private ships for the civilians.

As for the topic at hand, I can't overstate the ability of a high-level spellcaster to nullify fortifications and dominate large-scale battles in general. A few well-placed disintegrate spells could bring a section of the wall crashing down, and cloudkill (which Vaarsuvius can't cast since he chose conjuration as a barred school) can kill hundreds of low-level characters on the ground. Don't get me started on what Xykon could do with a few scrolls of gate, even if he's not level 18 (V can't use those either, by the way).

[Kiero]

As for the topic at hand, I can't overstate the ability of a high-level spellcaster to nullify fortifications and dominate large-scale battles in general. A few well-placed disintegrate spells could bring a section of the wall crashing down, and cloudkill (which Vaarsuvius can't cast since he chose conjuration as a barred school) can kill hundreds of low-level characters on the ground. Don't get me started on what Xykon could do with a few scrolls of gate, even if he's not level 18 (V can't use those either, by the way).

You don't think any fortification in a magical world has anti-magic or counter-magic built into it? Not to mention that there are casters in the city. Xykon and Redcloak are just two people.

[Demented]

(For those who didn't play Civ2 or don't remember the rules:
A phalanx (bronze-age spearman) had a defence of 2, and 10hp.
Marines and Cavalry, some of the tougest pre-armor ground units, had an attack of 8, and 20hp. Armor itself had 10 attack and 30hp

But a mountains gave a 3x defence multiplier, as did city walls. Veteran units got a 50% bonus (1.5x multiplier), and units that dug in got an extra 25%. So the phalanx could get 2x3x3x1.5x1.25 = 33.75 defence, which, in combination with (un)lucky roles, could result in unbelievably embarrasing loses for the attacker.

I set up such a siege once as an experiment, using the scenario editior, and lost about 8 marines without doing significant damage to the phalanx).

Even better. At least with the version I have (?), units that dig in (fortify) get a x1.5, which puts your lowly phalanx at 40 defense. Veteran stealth bombers can't puncture it. Well, Barbarian stealth bombers can't puncture it. non-veteran Roman Marines slapped it up the face. :smalleek: ( But I took two of 'em with me! )

Y'know, a Civ2 scenario made after Erfworld... or Azure city... could be amusing.

[Roderick_BR]

Because they need to be sure if they'll be able to protect the city without many losses. Remember that inside the story, these soldiers are people with past and families, not just cannon fodder.
It's the leader's job to be sure to bring their soldiers back home, and knowing the numbers make it easier to make plans.

[The Wanderer]

1) Building tension and setting the scene.

2) This one is trickier. I think Giant is setting us up. He keeps throwing 3 to 1, 3 to 1 at us so much we don't question it... or see the simple fact that Redcloak, Zykon and whatever other dark clerics/mages are in Zykon's army can raise every fallen soldier into undead, and throw a whole new wave at the defenders when they're exhausted, wounded, and low on weapons. He keeps getting us thinking that they may just be able to defeat Zykon's army as it is now, only to sucker punch us with that surprise and make the overwhelming of Azure City that much more believable and horrifying.

[Snake-Aes]

It may not even be needed, Hobgoblins ARE famous for their warfare and military tradition, almost like the Spartans.

One of my favorite scenarios has the southern continent dominated by an army of goblinoids whose leader is a profetic bugbear that managed to unify orcs goblins hobgoblins and bugbears under his flag.

[JackofAllBlades]

Lets also dont forget that undead neiher get tired nor they panick.They can also effectively wage war after losing several limbs even.

The theory with cloudkill would apply to many area of effect spells such as fireball.Imagine Xykon on his dragon launching fireballs on Azurian soldiers most of which are low leveled doing <insert level here> d6 damage.

To this add the experince which many azurian soldiers do not have.Whereas hobgoblins are born soldiers.

And then there is MiTD who may try to `lightly` hit walls or people.MiTd also have a high damage reduction(Miko`s hits tickles him right?)(I dont think many/any Azurians can overcome that) And possibly regenereation,magic resistance and also high saving throw bonuses.(I state the latter as possible)

[Bluelantern]

It may not even be needed, Hobgoblins ARE famous for their warfare and military tradition, almost like the Spartans.

One of my favorite scenarios has the southern continent dominated by an army of goblinoids whose leader is a profetic bugbear that managed to unify orcs goblins hobgoblins and bugbears under his flag.

The Dark Aliance??? Are you brazilian?

[Erloas]

I think one of the main reasons they are making a bit deal about the numbers is to let everyone know that this isn't the sort of situation you normally get in D&D where anything and everything is solved by a few individual adventurers.
Giant is setting up the situation so that we know the OOTS isn't just going to head out and take care of the invading hobgoblins on their own. Since hobgoblins and zombies are pathetically easy to kill for adventurers he needs to remind everyone that there is still a challenge and danger here even for high level characters.