Turning Point for the Order: Wither now?

[Windscion]

HPoH is about to expose itself.
Belkar ... may well be gone.
A load of mid/high-level mortals seem likely to be recruited in the near future. More, at any rate, than V's tele-orb can handle. (I am assuming it has a numbers limit.)

But, from commentary in No Cure for the Paladin Blues (NCftPB), Belkar is a member of the Order, Miko was not. Implication: the original members are still the focus and will remain so.

The simplest way to reconcile these statements is that the northern priesthood will become the new allies of the order, as Azure city was previously. They will do ... what? I don't know.

Some of you no doubt would be perfectly content to see Wrecan and Veldrina step in for Belkar and Durkon, respectively. And it would seem the obvious way to make the numbers add up. But I do not see the Giant going there. I'm just not sure where he is going.

So, let the irresponsible speculation begin, and let it start here.

[necrochicken]

Belkar may not die, per se, but just have some effect causing him to "draw his last breath".

oh well- all speculation!

[grandpheonix]

Im pretty sure when you hit a road from that high up, you go splat. No mouth to speak, and no lungs working enough to breathe in air.

Also something about over half your HP gone in a single moment and having to make a fortitude check...

But ANYwho, Id like to see Wrecan and Veldrina in the party. Vel cant ressurect, and Wrecan can take over ranger duty, except that he can probably cast spells.

[gallagher]

Belkar may not die, per se, but just have some effect causing him to "draw his last breath".

oh well- all speculation!

Not until he has the opportunity to savor a birthday cake

[littlebum2002]

I would be very surprised if Belkar doesn't stay alive at least through most of this book. His storyline is too far from over to die now.

[Windscion]

... and what makes you think that death is automatically the end of Belkar's story?

[littlebum2002]

... and what makes you think that death is automatically the end of Belkar's story?

That's a pretty good point. Rich has hinted that Nale's role in the story isn't over, and that even if Thog is dead his role might be over, so maybe all three are going to hit it off in the afterlife and come back to raise hell

[theNater]

Durkula's revelation isn't going to result in the Order going "ah, shucks" and moving on with their lives. There is going to be major conflict between Durkula and the Order, probably eventually resulting in Durkula getting staked. And hey, there's a whole bunch of high-level clerics around now! All it takes is for one of them to survive, and Durkon is back with the party within a day of Durkula's destruction.

Belkar, meanwhile, is a high-level adventurer falling off a cliff. He's probably going to survive. Heck, if he just spends his airtime chugging healing potions, he can start working his way back up as soon as he hits the ground. Somebody mentioned the massive damage rule, but it's DC 15 and rangers and barbarians both have good fort saves. He pretty much can't miss.

So, yeah, I figure at the end of this, Durkon and Belkar will be back, the northern priesthood will be sufficiently damaged that they can't offer much in the way of help, and Veldrina and Wrecan will either tag along until the end of the book or be obligated to return to elven lands for some reason or other.

[sabremeister]

That's a pretty good point. Rich has hinted that Nale's role in the story isn't over, and that even if Thog is dead his role might be over, so maybe all three are going to hit it off in the afterlife and come back to raise hell

I don't recall the Giant hinting that Nale's role in the story isn't over. I do recall him saying that Sabine's role in the story isn't over, though.

[Father Miles]

I don't recall the Giant hinting that Nale's role in the story isn't over. I do recall him saying that Sabine's role in the story isn't over, though.

She could save Belkar...

[ti'esar]

I don't recall the Giant hinting that Nale's role in the story isn't over.

The only thing I can remember like that is that he refused to answer whether Elan would have turned out like Nale if he was the one raised by Tarquin, saying it might give things away. But that might just have been referring to Elan's musings after Nale died.

[Olinser]

Im pretty sure when you hit a road from that high up, you go splat. No mouth to speak, and no lungs working enough to breathe in air.

Also something about over half your HP gone in a single moment and having to make a fortitude check...

But ANYwho, Id like to see Wrecan and Veldrina in the party. Vel cant ressurect, and Wrecan can take over ranger duty, except that he can probably cast spells.

Belkar has already been tossed overboard an airship TWICE on-panel by Durkula. Quite frankly I'd be shocked if he hadn't acquired some variety of feather fall/flying item while in gnome town. He may not necessarily be able to get back up to the Moot quickly, but there's NO WAY he's dead.

Also, while it may not be concrete, in Snips Snails and Dragons Tails Roy stated that max fall damage was 20d6. Easily survivable for the Belkster if he chugs a pot before he hits. Tarquin certainly easily survived a fall from the airship at a pretty high altitude.

[Killer Angel]

Im pretty sure when you hit a road from that high up, you go splat.

In D&D, there's plenty of reasons for Belkar to survive that fall.

[Quild]

Also, while it may not be concrete, in Snips Snails and Dragons Tails Roy stated that max fall damage was 20d6. Easily survivable for the Belkster if he chugs a pot before he hits. Tarquin certainly easily survived a fall from the airship at a pretty high altitude.

20d6 is 20-120 damage. average 70.

Belkar is (at least) level 15 with:
11 levels rangers including first
1 level barbarian
3 unknown level
CON unknown

For 10 CON, that's 22-136HP, assuming his unknown levels are all barbarians (remove 4 max HP by ranger level).
Average 79 if all unknown levels are barbarian ones (remove 2 max HP by ranger level).

That's quite the same range, I don't see how Belkar can easily survive.

[facw]

20d6 is 20-120
that's 22-136HP
That's quite the same range, I don't see how Belkar can easily survive.

The point is that it's entirely possible for him to survive. It's also entirely possible for him to die. Rich can pick whatever he believes works best for his story, and it will be entirely believable (at least to the extent that D&D falling damage makes sense). I tend to think he'll live (though a save from V or the Mechane seems more likely surviving the fall).

[necrochicken]

. I tend to think he'll live (though a save from V or the Mechane seems more likely surviving the fall).

Hmm...

this would be deus ex machina, just a little.

[theNater]

20d6 is 20-120 damage. average 70.

Belkar is (at least) level 15 with:
11 levels rangers including first
1 level barbarian
3 unknown level
CON unknown

For 10 CON, that's 22-136HP, assuming his unknown levels are all barbarians (remove 4 max HP by ranger level).
Average 79 if all unknown levels are barbarian ones (remove 2 max HP by ranger level).

That's quite the same range, I don't see how Belkar can easily survive.
As a melee combatant, it would be suicidally foolish for Belkar not to arrange for a significantly better Con score than 10, even if that requires purchasing a Con-boosting magic item.

For 14 Con, the range is 52-166 HP, or 52-154 with only one barbarian level. Those have averages of 109 and 103 respectively. 70 damage isn't pleasant, but it is easily survivable.

[Molan]

All these HP calculations aside, it's entirely possible that Belkar only has around 100 HP if his roles have been crappy.

We also don't know how much damage he's taken. Say, (again a slightly pessimistic view) that he had 120 HP. Well guess what, if he's taken over 20 damage then there's a chance when he takes 20d6 fall damage he'll die.

Then there's the fortitude save for massive damage. This wouldn't be the first time someone in this comic was like, "Hey, I had enough HP for that, sweet!" then somehow remembers he has to make a fort save and rolls a 1.

My vote goes to, "he's dead".

Not, "he's DONE", per se. But dead.

[ti'esar]

Hmm...

this would be deus ex machina, just a little.

That's why they call it the Mechane. :smallwink:

[theNater]

All these HP calculations aside, it's entirely possible that Belkar only has around 100 HP if his roles have been crappy.
The expected damage from 20d6 is 70. If he "only" has 100 HP, he's most likely to survive that.


Then there's the fortitude save for massive damage. This wouldn't be the first time someone in this comic was like, "Hey, I had enough HP for that, sweet!" then somehow remembers he has to make a fort save and rolls a 1.
Belkar has at least +11 to fort saves from his classes, and another +3 from his vest (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0969.html). Add the 1 from the die, and he can't get less than 15, which is the DC. He literally cannot fail the fort save.


My vote goes to, "he's dead".

Not, "he's DONE", per se. But dead.
Depending on how damaged he is already and how the dice go, death from falling damage is certainly possible. But even the simplest thing he can do to try to survive results in survival being more likely. He's got better than even odds to survive; how much better depends on how clever he is.

[necrochicken]

That's why they call it the Mechane. :smallwink:


I had a feeling...

[Olinser]

As a melee combatant, it would be suicidally foolish for Belkar not to arrange for a significantly better Con score than 10, even if that requires purchasing a Con-boosting magic item.

For 14 Con, the range is 52-166 HP, or 52-154 with only one barbarian level. Those have averages of 109 and 103 respectively. 70 damage isn't pleasant, but it is easily survivable.

I agree, even Belkar isn't idiotic enough to have a Con that low as a primary melee fighter.

He also has Barbarian Rage, good for another +30 HP if he is level 15. If he pots up and then rages even with average HP values around 100 that puts him past 130, which is guaranteed survival.

[Quild]

I wouldn't bet high on the CON modifier because it's Belkar. He's under-optimized (lol no WIS).

But, I did out of curiosity some calculations on how Miko defeated the Order in #251 (based on Rich's explanation (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showsinglepost.php?p=291639&postcount=489)), I would say that Belkar took 5d6+1d10+57 damage(*) while level 12 (8+10d8+1d12 HP)

That's a damage range of 63-97 (average 80) that drops him to -4.

Belkar has 19-100 HP (average 59,5) without any CON modifier.
A +1 modifier could be totally fine with this.


(*)Assuming Miko has 12 paladin levels (total level 14 with 2 monks level)
Assuming Miko has 12 CHA but not 14
Assuming Miko has 16 STR
Belkar took 3 unarmed strike (1d6+3)
Belkar took 1 Katana attack (1d10+3)
Belkar took 2 Wakizashi attacks (1d6+3)
Belkar took 3 smite evil (13)



Belkar surviving thanks of +30 HP from Rage however, is something I can totally bet on.

[theNater]

That's a damage range of 63-97 (average 80) that drops him to -4.
I think the real take-away here is that three(or more) levels ago, Belkar had somewehere in the neighborhood of 80 HP. So an effect that does somewhere in the neighborhood of 70 HP is probably not going to kill him from full health.

[Enran]

I think the real take-away here is that three(or more) levels ago, Belkar had somewehere in the neighborhood of 80 HP. So an effect that does somewhere in the neighborhood of 70 HP is probably not going to kill him from full health.

But he's not at full health (the tussle with Durkula needs to be accounted for), and as remarkably stupid as Belkar would have to be to not have packed healing potions, well... Belkar has proven time and again that he can be remarkably stupid, especially when it comes to being prepared for things he hasn't already experienced. I actually think it might be more likely that he has something like a Ring of Feather Fall or something (since this guy has thrown him off the Mechane twice) than to have healing potions, since, while he's directly experienced Durkula mind controlling him and throwing him off high places, he has not experienced Durkula (or Durkon, for that matter) displaying the martial capacity to beat him one on one.

I am a big fan of how these numbers are working out, though. If nothing else, there probably won't be any people complaining about the mechanics of Belkar's fall whether or not he survives. Everything else, of course, will be the usual source of strife. I would also laugh pretty hard if the Giant played around with all the people doing math to see Belkar's chances from a rules-legal perspective by saving him from the fall with something that pointedly disobeys the actual rules of the thing. Although maybe that would be a bit too repetitive, since Durkon basically did the same thing to destroy Leeky's animated trees (weather control thunder for sonic damage!) in order to rescue Vaarsuvius... Anyway, we'll see.

[theNater]

But he's not at full health (the tussle with Durkula needs to be accounted for), and as remarkably stupid as Belkar would have to be to not have packed healing potions, well... Belkar has proven time and again that he can be remarkably stupid, especially when it comes to being prepared for things he hasn't already experienced.
Belkar has been known to carry potions since strip #8 (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0008.html). And the party recently had an opportunity to acquire as many potions as they wanted (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0937.html), free of charge; if Belkar didn't think to grab a few to carry around, Roy would almost certainly have suggested it.

But the point isn't that Belkar will drink potions and survive the fall. The point is that Belkar has an easy, straightforward way to survive the fall. This fall is not really a deadly scenario for him. The real question is how inconvenient it will be, which depends on how clever he is. If he is not clever at all, he drinks some potions, takes a bunch of damage, drinks any remaining potions, and has to climb a mountain while injured and devoid of potions. If he's slightly more clever, he picked up a ring of feather fall, and he climbs up the mountain in pretty good shape, with potions to spare. If he's even more clever, he's figured out a way to arrest his descent well before reaching the ground, and only has to climb part of the mountain. We'll see soon enough what the actual situation is, but "died from the fall" is not meaningfully likely. (Before somebody complains, yes, I know it's technically possible. But it's so easy for him to not die that it would be super weird if he did.)

[Killer Angel]

I wouldn't bet high on the CON modifier because it's Belkar. He's under-optimized (lol no WIS).


yes, but... He must have put the points somewhere! :smalltongue:

[Enran]

yes, but... He must have put the points somewhere! :smalltongue:

Not if they rolled stats. He could just have a +1 mod in Strength and Dex, a -1 in Wis, and all other average rolls. Would be legal without rerolls, even under the most generous ruleset.

[Vovix]

Im pretty sure when you hit a road from that high up, you go splat. No mouth to speak, and no lungs working enough to breathe in air.

Also something about over half your HP gone in a single moment and having to make a fortitude check...

But ANYwho, Id like to see Wrecan and Veldrina in the party. Vel cant ressurect, and Wrecan can take over ranger duty, except that he can probably cast spells.

Actually, a high-level character can easily survive the 20d6 fall damage. The Order is, like, what, level 14 or 15 by now? Belkar has barbarian levels. Especially if he rages, not even the maximum 120 damage is likely to kill him.

[Quild]

I think the real take-away here is that three(or more) levels ago, Belkar had somewehere in the neighborhood of 80 HP. So an effect that does somewhere in the neighborhood of 70 HP is probably not going to kill him from full health.

Maybe is my approach biased by how we calculate things on the geekery thread, min-maxing everything. But the use of averages doesn't work here.
The calculation I made for Miko damage may be with higher stats/level than Miko had (if she has 15 STR instead of 16, that's 6 less damages for instance, but she needs 18 for 6 more damages).

Miko may have dealt barely above 60 damages if she has been unlucky on her rolls (she's been lucky on some others) which would put Belkar at some 60 HP rather than 80.
And thinking about it, I believe Belkar took one of his three unknown level in Ranger for the "Camouflage" skill.

Belkar may have less than three rounds falling (and he would need at least some 2 thousands feet falling distance for that third round).
And he needs a standard action to activate his barbarian rage (can he even uses that actually? He's out of combat, does it work outside of an encounter?)
So if he can drink only one potion, maybe he can't go to full HP from this (we don't even know what kind of potions the order was given, maybe they're Cure Moderate Wounds only. Haley (and Bandana) haven't drank any of those while fighting Crystal, even when they had some rounds doing nothing else...)

Also you're assuming that Belkar will end his fall on the road below. Maybe he will end on sharp rocks, maybe he will somehow continue his fall after hitting a first thing and have falling damages more than once.

I'm not saying that Belkar's death from this fall is very likely, but it's not unlikely either. If the Giant decides that Belkar dies from this fall, this can totally happen without twisting the rules.


Actually, a high-level character can easily survive the 20d6 fall damage. The Order is, like, what, level 14 or 15 by now? Belkar has barbarian levels. Especially if he rages, not even the maximum 120 damage is likely to kill him.

Not likely, but it still can happen.

[theNater]

Maybe is my approach biased by how we calculate things on the geekery thread, min-maxing everything. But the use of averages doesn't work here.
The calculation I made for Miko damage may be with higher stats/level than Miko had (if she has 15 STR instead of 16, that's 6 less damages for instance, but she needs 18 for 6 more damages).

Miko may have dealt barely above 60 damages if she has been unlucky on her rolls (she's been lucky on some others) which would put Belkar at some 60 HP rather than 80.
By the same token, Miko may have rolled high and dealt over 90 damage, putting Belkar above 90 HP.

One of the useful things about D&D style dice rolls is that when one rolls multiple dice, the average is also the most likely single result. The more dice being rolled, the more likely the average is relative to everything else. Assuming averages gives us a good guess about what probably has happened (or will happen); in this case, that a full-health Belkar will probably survive a fall.


And he needs a standard action to activate his barbarian rage (can he even uses that actually? He's out of combat, does it work outside of an encounter?)
From the SRD:

Entering a rage takes no time itself, but a barbarian can do it only during his action, not in response to someone else’s action.
So he can drink a potion and activate his rage in a single action. And yes, barbarians can rage outside of combat.


Haley (and Bandana) haven't drank any of those while fighting Crystal, even when they had some rounds doing nothing else...)
Not everything that happens is shown. The Giant has explicitly omitted irrelevant details in the past; if the potions weren't going to be the difference between survival and death, there's no reason to show them.


I'm not saying that Belkar's death from this fall is very likely, but it's not unlikely either. If the Giant decides that Belkar dies from this fall, this can totally happen without twisting the rules.
It can happen, but it is indeed unlikely.

As to what the Giant has decided, this isn't what deaths in the comic look like. When major characters die in this story, they tend to get a moment to tell us what they're willing to die for first. Some examples: Roy (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0442.html), Therkla (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0590.html), Thanh (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0827.html), Tsukiko (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0830.html), Nale (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0913.html). Belkar hasn't had that moment, so I really don't think his death is in the cards.

[Molan]

Let's consider a few other things:

1. Durkula beat Belkar in combat, which is uncommon for both of them. The question becomes, exactly what did Durkula DO to Belkar in terms of numbers? I know we're all in a state of discord over how much HP Belkar has max, but we can reasonably guess. I'm going for around 100 HP by now -- I think Belkar is heavier in Dex and Str then anything else, and even his decent-to-good hit dice aren't going to get him to damage sponge range.
- 1a. I just rolled a few tests to try to get a gauge for his HP. I came up with 89 HP on my first go-around for a Ranger 12/ Barbarian 3 w/12 Con. If he has 14 Con that means he's at 104 HP. So I'm feeling good around the idea that he's "around" 100 HP. (only rolled 2 1's, included the level 1 die and got a second "8", good number of "6's" and a 10 too.)

2. So, how much damage did Durkula do? It doesn't seem like he was able to employ his energy drain with the natural attacks in his wolf form (no I did not read the rules on that before posting it so no I do not know if it's possible, lol). Did Durkula have any other abilities making his Bite more dangerous?

3. Obviously, Belkar immediately was affected by some consequence to drawing his weapons inside the temple. But have we settled on exactly what that effect was? If so, could it affect his HP? This is pertinent because it's still burning him as he falls away. http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0996.html

4. If they're on the top of a big famous mountain, I think it's easy to assume he could fall far enough to take maximum falling damage, so I'm betting that 20d6 is the minimum he takes, unless there's some crazy House Rules that allow you to go beyond that.

5. To the point on landing on something other then a flat surface -- like rocks, for example -- does that work the same way Improvised Weapons do? (wherein IW's do damage based on the weight of the object but double up if the object is pointy). Is there a "sharp rock" modifier we ought to take into account?

[theNater]

1. Durkula beat Belkar in combat, which is uncommon for both of them. The question becomes, exactly what did Durkula DO to Belkar in terms of numbers?

...

2. So, how much damage did Durkula do? It doesn't seem like he was able to employ his energy drain with the natural attacks in his wolf form (no I did not read the rules on that before posting it so no I do not know if it's possible, lol). Did Durkula have any other abilities making his Bite more dangerous?
We don't and can't know, due to the fact that not everything is shown. He did some amount of HP damage is the best we can be sure of. Dire wolf bites do 1d8+10 by default, so we'd expect no less than 29 damage.


3. Obviously, Belkar immediately was affected by some consequence to drawing his weapons inside the temple. But have we settled on exactly what that effect was? If so, could it affect his HP? This is pertinent because it's still burning him as he falls away. http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0996.html
That's not the temple, it's the clasp of Protection from Evil (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0969.html). It's not clear whether it's having some detrimental mechanical effect or is just unpleasant.


4. If they're on the top of a big famous mountain, I think it's easy to assume he could fall far enough to take maximum falling damage, so I'm betting that 20d6 is the minimum he takes, unless there's some crazy House Rules that allow you to go beyond that.

5. To the point on landing on something other then a flat surface -- like rocks, for example -- does that work the same way Improvised Weapons do? (wherein IW's do damage based on the weight of the object but double up if the object is pointy). Is there a "sharp rock" modifier we ought to take into account?
20d6 from the fall is what everybody's been assuming, as far as I can tell. Sharp rocks aren't likely to do more than an additional few d6s of damage; not enough to bring the average damage up from 70 to the neighborhood of 100. Note also that a spiked pit trap has to make an attack roll to get spike damage; Belkar's armor and Dex may allow him to avoid "sharp rock" damage.

[Quild]

By the same token, Miko may have rolled high and dealt over 90 damage, putting Belkar above 90 HP.

One of the useful things about D&D style dice rolls is that when one rolls multiple dice, the average is also the most likely single result. The more dice being rolled, the more likely the average is relative to everything else. Assuming averages gives us a good guess about what probably has happened (or will happen); in this case, that a full-health Belkar will probably survive a fall.
You're again missing the idea of min-maxing. And the idea of standard deviation.
It's not because it's the most likely that it's a sure thing.
My point, is, again, that Belkar may/could/can be lower in HP than the average and may/could/can have no CON modifier either (Malack may have drained Belkar several rounds between #870 and #871, but since his position didn't change and the drop blood is the same in last panel and #870 and first panel in #871 but not here afterwards, maybe Malack drained Belkar really low in CON in a very short time...).

After all, a human fighter with a broken sword shouldn't have defeated a powerful lich (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0191.html).
And if you've readed the bonus strips, you know that Xykon may have been wrong if it wasn't for Shelby to do something supposed impossible.


From the SRD:

So he can drink a potion and activate his rage in a single action. And yes, barbarians can rage outside of combat.
Oops, right. That's 2 potions, maybe three. I'll take your word for the rage outside of combat.


Not everything that happens is shown. The Giant has explicitly omitted irrelevant details in the past; if the potions weren't going to be the difference between survival and death, there's no reason to show them.
Says who?



As to what the Giant has decided, this isn't what deaths in the comic look like. When major characters die in this story, they tend to get a moment to tell us what they're willing to die for first. Some examples: Roy (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0442.html), Therkla (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0590.html), Thanh (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0827.html), Tsukiko (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0830.html), Nale (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0913.html). Belkar hasn't had that moment, so I really don't think his death is in the cards.[/QUOTE]

What about Crystal (+golem)? Malack? Zz'dtri? Good news guys, Thog just can't be dead, stop wondering!
Plus, death is not always an end in OOTS world, Belkar could always have his moment later.



We don't and can't know, due to the fact that not everything is shown. He did some amount of HP damage is the best we can be sure of. Dire wolf bites do 1d8+10 by default, so we'd expect no less than 29 damage.HPoH may have bitten thrice (may be chewing in panel 11). There are also the damages of going through glass. Maybe some damage in panel 15 (1d6?).
I don't think we missed anything though, it's just a matter of understanding what happened.

[Molan]

That's not the temple, it's the clasp of Protection from Evil (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0969.html). It's not clear whether it's having some detrimental mechanical effect or is just unpleasant.

That was a fair point but I had a couple of issues with it.

How do we know he activated the clasp? It looked to me like he just drew his weapons, and the yellow flames effect could have just been similar to the effect of the PfE clasp.

Plus, don't feel like that effect actually has any negative effect as casting prot from evil doesn't have any negative effect on evil characters unless the clasp is ALSO good aligned. If it IS, then he's extra screwed because he's now shy a level.

Anyway I read something earlier about him not having his major exit dialogue to die. I don't think that every character universally needs one. I also think that an abrupt death (especially where the deceased went down fighting after no one believed him and the fate of the world hangs on the balance) is actually poetic and would be a good change of pace.

[Olinser]

That was a fair point but I had a couple of issues with it.

How do we know he activated the clasp? It looked to me like he just drew his weapons, and the yellow flames effect could have just been similar to the effect of the PfE clasp.

Plus, don't feel like that effect actually has any negative effect as casting prot from evil doesn't have any negative effect on evil characters unless the clasp is ALSO good aligned. If it IS, then he's extra screwed because he's now shy a level.

Anyway I read something earlier about him not having his major exit dialogue to die. I don't think that every character universally needs one. I also think that an abrupt death (especially where the deceased went down fighting after no one believed him and the fate of the world hangs on the balance) is actually poetic and would be a good change of pace.

First, because he touches his cloak clasp as it activates, and then because the blaze aura perfectly matches the aura from the last time he activated it - in the gnome shop right before he bought it.

[theNater]

You're again missing the idea of min-maxing. And the idea of standard deviation.
It's not because it's the most likely that it's a sure thing.
Standard deviation is kind of an unusual choice here. I mean, if you want to do calculations, why not just calculate the whole thing? There's a finite number of states, and you have a computer. On the other hand, if you want to eyeball it, calculating the standard deviation is excessive. I've chosen to eyeball it, and apparently I haven't been clear enough on my reasoning, so I'm gonna walk you through it.

Assuming +1 from Con, only one Barbarian level, and that Belkar downs enough potions to get to full, the single most likely outcome of falling damage is that he has 18 HP left. Half of the remaining possibilities are better for him, while the other half are worse. So that means there is a better than 50% chance that he survives with 18 or more HP left. On the other hand, there's still options in the other side where he survives with fewer than 18 HP left. And, each individual survival possibility down there is more likely than any individual death possibility. So we have to take off some nonnegligible chunk of this less than 50% section to account for the possibility he survives with fewer than 18 HP. The remaining collection of outcomes, in which he dies, has a total probability that is significantly less than something smaller than 50%. This is what mathematicians call "unlikely".


After all, a human fighter with a broken sword shouldn't have defeated a powerful lich (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0191.html).
And if you've readed the bonus strips, you know that Xykon may have been wrong if it wasn't for Shelby to do something supposed impossible.
Yes, something unusual could happen. However, unusual things are unlikely(because if they were likely, they'd happen often enough to be usual). So saying "something unusual might happen" doesn't suddenly make Belkar's death stop being unlikely.


Says who?
The Giant (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?366806-How-did-Xykon-manage-to-kill-Durakon/page4&p=17960319#post17960319). (Link contains SoD discussion). Note particularly "I'm sure [some things happened] between panels, but since they obviously didn't affect the outcome...I didn't need to show them."


What about Crystal (+golem)? Malack? Zz'dtri? Good news guys, Thog just can't be dead, stop wondering!
I'm hesitant to class Zz'dtri and Thog as major, given that they were lackeys for Nale. Similarly pre-golem Crystal with Bozzok. However, Malack (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0906.html) and the Crystal Golem (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0981.html) are both represented.


HPoH may have bitten thrice (may be chewing in panel 11). There are also the damages of going through glass. Maybe some damage in panel 15 (1d6?).
Right, that's why I said no less than 29 damage, rather than no more than 29 or exactly 29.


How do we know he activated the clasp?
He rubs it with his left hand in panel 4. If you look very closely, you can see a bit of magical aura emanating from it in that panel.


Plus, don't feel like that effect actually has any negative effect as casting prot from evil doesn't have any negative effect on evil characters unless the clasp is ALSO good aligned. If it IS, then he's extra screwed because he's now shy a level.
The negative effects of the clasp, if there are any mechanical effects at all, are non-standard. The level drop from having an opposed item is permanent as long as the item is in one's possession, and Belkar isn't feeling a downside to just wearing the clasp. Even if it's giving him a negative level while it's on, that's not a huge issue from a falling standpoint. It's just -5 hit points, and they'd come back as soon as he turned it off.


Anyway I read something earlier about him not having his major exit dialogue to die. I don't think that every character universally needs one.
Not every character needs one, but based on the writing so far, it would be unusual in this story for a major character not to get one.

[Quild]

...I'm done with you. I'm considering all possibilities while you're stuck on "most likely scenario", understanding what you want from what you're willing to read (by opposition of what you put aside).

[theNater]

I'm done with you. I'm considering all possibilities while you're stuck on "most likely scenario", understanding what you want from what you're willing to read (by opposition of what you put aside).
I'm not the one inventing unevidenced sharp rocks and midair ledges or misremembering the rage rules in a desperate attempt to make a preferred outcome seem plausible.

Belkar is sufficiently capable of surviving this that it would be surprising if he died. Sure, maybe the Giant has set it up that way so he can surprise us. If that's the case, I'm happy to play along, because that means I get to be surprised.

[Quild]

I'm not the one inventing unevidenced sharp rocks and midair ledges or misremembering the rage rules in a desperate attempt to make a preferred outcome seem plausible.

Belkar is sufficiently capable of surviving this that it would be surprising if he died. Sure, maybe the Giant has set it up that way so he can surprise us. If that's the case, I'm happy to play along, because that means I get to be surprised.

You're hopeless.
Inventing unevidenced sharp rocks and midair ledges? How don't you understant that IT COULD happen. That if The Giant wants Belkar dead now, he CAN. I don't expect it, but if it happens, are you going to go rampage against The Giant because rules forbade it to happen?
You're the one supposing that Belkar can go back to full health while you have no idea of what kind of potions he has and while he may be unable to drink more than 2.
Misremembering the rage rules in a desperate attempt to... Wait, how is "misremembering" a conscious thing? And the mistake I actually did was checking the Rage feat instead of the Barbarian's rage.

And in the end, you come to agree with my exact point while you're making such a mess about it. Genius.

[3Doubloons]

You're hopeless.
Inventing unevidenced sharp rocks and midair ledges? How don't you understant that IT COULD happen. That if The Giant wants Belkar dead now, he CAN. I don't expect it, but if it happens, are you going to go rampage against The Giant because rules forbade it to happen?
You're the one supposing that Belkar can go back to full health while you have no idea of what kind of potions he has and while he may be unable to drink more than 2.
Misremembering the rage rules in a desperate attempt to... Wait, how is "misremembering" a conscious thing? And the mistake I actually did was checking the Rage feat instead of the Barbarian's rage.

Everyone agrees that if the Giant needs Belkar to die from his fall*, he can make it happen. Yes, he could invent sharp spikes and have Belkar forget to rage or drink potions to ensure it happens, but he doesn't need to: even if the D&D rules say that there's 100% no chance Belkar can die from his fall (which they don't), he could still die from it. Roy died from his fall on a flat plain, Belkar could die from a fall on a tall peak.

What everyone is saying is that the rules of the game give Belkar better than even odds of surviving, so his fate is not determined until we see him again. What no one has said but I believe is obvious is that the laws of narrative causality also give Belkar better than even odds of surviving (Not everyone who definitely died visibly died after giving their world view, but a main character dying like that is unlikely).

Frankly, if the Giant needs Belkar to die at the Godsmoot, I find it much more likely that Belkar will survive his fall, arrive back at the Moot at a dramatic moment, weakened by his fall/trek back then be killed turning the tide of battle. Wouldn't that make for a better story than the Order encountering his corpse on the way out and going "Welp, there's Belkar's body. Too bad we only got one favour from all the resurrection-capable clerics in there"

[theNater]

That if The Giant wants Belkar dead now, he CAN.
This is true for all the characters, all the time. It's an empty statement.


I don't expect it, but if it happens, are you going to go rampage against The Giant because rules forbade it to happen?
Of course not. From two days ago, in this thread:

We'll see soon enough what the actual situation is, but "died from the fall" is not meaningfully likely. (Before somebody complains, yes, I know it's technically possible. But it's so easy for him to not die that it would be super weird if he did.)
Why would you assume I'd go on a rampage against the Giant? Have I ever gone on a rampage against the Giant? Is it the avatar? I know my avatar looks angry; is that giving the impression that I'm an angry guy?

[Quild]

Why would you assume I'd go on a rampage against the Giant? Have I ever gone on a rampage against the Giant? Is it the avatar? I know my avatar looks angry; is that giving the impression that I'm an angry guy?

I'm assuming that because we're (we were?) disagreeing more and more on that exact point since a couple of days.
Maybe you can hear things from some persons but not from others, idk.
Yes, your avatar makes you look angry. And some of your words makes you look despicable (especially in your previous reply where I find you at the edge of being insulting).


3Doubloons: Roy's death was totally in accordance with the rules. Roy had suffered from Finger of Death, some off panel attacks between 430 and 442 and a full Meteor Swarm.
That made him low in HP in a first place.
The damages Belkar took here are quite certainly less significant. But he has less HP to start with.

[littlebum2002]

Sorry, gone for the weekend.


I don't recall the Giant hinting that Nale's role in the story isn't over. I do recall him saying that Sabine's role in the story isn't over, though.

It wasn't much, but just a few hints I've seen scattered around.

First, he responded to this quote:

Even bigger example. Nale. He never seems to do anything Lawful at all. He doesn't have a code. He doesn't follow traditions of law. He would break any code he had if he got his father's empire and his brother's eternal torment. He'd probably backstab Sabine if he had to.

with this:



Interesting, that. Don't you think? :smallwink:


Which doesn't make sense considering what we've seen of Nale so far. He hasn't done any of those things, so why the wink? Makes me think he has some narrative left in him. Also, on Twitter, he responded to "was Thog KIA in his match with Roy or will there be more of him in the future? (or neither?)" with "Those are not mutually exclusive scenarios.", hinting now that perhaps we might see Thog in the afterlife. And, lastly, the quote about Nale and Elan's alignment hasn't quite, in my mind, led to the future events he refused to speak of.



Hmm...

this would be deus ex machina, just a little.

Not at all. People are very quick to point to any surprise in a comic and say "Deus Ex Machina". A Deus ex Machina is when something new appears in the story to save everyone. We know the MEchane is outside, we know it has at least one character on it capable of saving Belkar, therefore it is in no way a Deus ex Machina.

[Molan]

Not at all. People are very quick to point to any surprise in a comic and say "Deus Ex Machina". A Deus ex Machina is when something new appears in the story to save everyone. We know the MEchane is outside, we know it has at least one character on it capable of saving Belkar, therefore it is in no way a Deus ex Machina.

I'm inclined to agree. I think Belkar dies because it would be a poetic, possible, and unusual way to go, given the way the scene was set up. But there's nothing that says that a precedent has not been set for Belker being saved from huge falls, nor is there any lacking precedent for people surviving huge falls period. If the Mechane intervenes it's completely legit.

[Olinser]

Sorry, gone for the weekend.



It wasn't much, but just a few hints I've seen scattered around.

First, he responded to this quote:


with this:



Which doesn't make sense considering what we've seen of Nale so far. He hasn't done any of those things, so why the wink? Makes me think he has some narrative left in him. Also, on Twitter, he responded to "was Thog KIA in his match with Roy or will there be more of him in the future? (or neither?)" with "Those are not mutually exclusive scenarios.", hinting now that perhaps we might see Thog in the afterlife. And, lastly, the quote about Nale and Elan's alignment hasn't quite, in my mind, led to the future events he refused to speak of.




Not at all. People are very quick to point to any surprise in a comic and say "Deus Ex Machina". A Deus ex Machina is when something new appears in the story to save everyone. We know the MEchane is outside, we know it has at least one character on it capable of saving Belkar, therefore it is in no way a Deus ex Machina.

Way, WAY too many people whine about 'Deus ex Machina' not even understanding what it means. It's the new 'irony' or 'karma', people throwing around a phrase they don't really understand.

Plot twists that are foreshadowed and use existing characters, abilities, items, etc, are just that - plot twists.

The Mechane was explicitly how they got to the Moot in the first place. It is also where the rest of the OOTS currently resides - and we have no less than TWO party members on board it with prior abilities/items shown that could save Belkar - V, obviously, can save him with any variety of spells that V has previously cast on-panel, and may even utilize the boots of Dimension Door that V was considering buying. Haley has her wand of Fly, which she likewise JUST used on panel, and most certainly still has charges for.

Having somebody on the Mechane spot Belkar smash out a window (especially with that highly conspicuous aura around him) and yell at V or Haley to go save him is 100% legit and uses abilities and character locations previously shown. It quite frankly wouldn't even be surprising, much less a Deus Ex Machina.

Now what WOULD be a Deus Ex Machina would be to have say..... Celia suddenly appear and grab Belkar. She hasn't been seen for hundreds of strips, there is no indication that she's even on the same PLANE right now, and she hates Belkar with a passion. So that WOULD be a Deus Ex Machina.

[Doctor_Cthulwho]

Durkula's revelation isn't going to result in the Order going "ah, shucks" and moving on with their lives. There is going to be major conflict between Durkula and the Order, probably eventually resulting in Durkula getting staked. And hey, there's a whole bunch of high-level clerics around now! All it takes is for one of them to survive, and Durkon is back with the party within a day of Durkula's destruction.

Well, the Order will want major conflict after this, but it seems far from assured they'll get it right now.

- Durkula has been preparing for this. He might be succumbing to villainous overconfidence and just assuming he can handle whatever happens when he reveals his true loyalties, but considering where he is (and what he knows of the Order) chances seem good he's planned on how to survive the heat, which will only be coming from the Order.

- The Order which is split up, and will be for at least a few turns following whatever revelation he makes. Roy can't get word to the others especially quickly, and even assuming the others saved Belkar and believe him they probably aren't going to storm the Godsmoot.

- The clerics aren't a problem, due to the Godsmoot neutrality aspect.* And not every High Priest present is necessarily hostile to Hel, Hel's clerics, or vampires. Some of the High Priests might even be on Durkula's side if a bunch of adventurers suddenly try to slay one of their number.**

- And speaking of potential allies, it's possible at least 2 members of The Creed of the Stone have been turned. If so to what end? Giant only knows. Forces for a fight? Having them carve an escape tunnel so he can skedaddle by the time the Order's picked their jaws up from the floor? Etc?

*Even immediately after the Godsmmoot. I'd imagine the neutrality might extend till everyone is safely away, or what's to stop a bloodbath of one alignment or another the moment it's over?

** Clerics have seemed like the class most likely to be civil with one another, regardless of differing world views/alignments. Malak having tea with Durkon, Hilga falling for Durkon, even Redcloak and the High Priest of the Azure City were fairly polite. Plus having gatherings like Godsmoots and deciding things democratically.


So, yeah, I figure at the end of this, Durkon and Belkar will be back, the northern priesthood will be sufficiently damaged that they can't offer much in the way of help, and Veldrina and Wrecan will either tag along until the end of the book or be obligated to return to elven lands for some reason or other.

I think chances are good Belkar isn't quite done yet, and the same applies for Durkula. Just seems like he's in a good spot to be safe from reprisal, for a time at least. Time he can be using to further better his position/escape.

[geoduck]

I think that Durkula will somehow survive all this, because he still hasn't brought "death and destruction" to the Dwarvish homelands. Unless of course whatever Hel's planning does that somehow.

[Yael]

http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/aceattorney/images/7/75/Objection.gif/revision/latest?cb=20080826215445 (http://objection.mrdictionary.net/go.php?n=8028934)
Click me, but care with headphones.

IMHO territory: I don't think Belkar's dying now, even with those calculations (that I respect, seriously this forum loves OotS :smallwink:); he is way too important just to die in such a manner. I mean, Greenhilt died at the climax of his very own storyline (his father's... Eh... Yeah...), and even though that wasn't "the very end", it was a major plot event that carried its consequenses (refering the quote from The Giant that has been passed quite a lot this thread) that could be prevented.

I think that Durkula will somehow survive all this, because he still hasn't brought "death and destruction" to the Dwarvish homelands. Unless of course whatever Hel's planning does that somehow.

I half-agree with this.

I think that there's two posibilities, one being where HPoH is the one that brings destruction to the dwarven mountains, and other one where the some kind of final battle should affect the very same place somehow.

[theNater]

Well, the Order will want major conflict after this, but it seems far from assured they'll get it right now.
I apologize; I was not very clear. In this context, I intended major conflict to refer not to a fight, but to a days-long struggle involving all sorts of ally-gathering, subterfuge, reversals of fortune, and probably multiple fights. Something similar in scale the Order's conflict with Nale that began with a Sending (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0337.html) and ended with the Linear Guild tied up (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0399.html). Maybe bigger.

Note that such a thing could very easily spill into dwarven lands proper, and bring about all sorts of death and destruction. I'd guess the moot cathedral will be damaged or destroyed somewhere before the halfway point, for example.

[Molan]

I apologize; I was not very clear. In this context, I intended major conflict to refer not to a fight, but to a days-long struggle involving all sorts of ally-gathering, subterfuge, reversals of fortune, and probably multiple fights. Something similar in scale the Order's conflict with Nale that began with a Sending (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0337.html) and ended with the Linear Guild tied up (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0399.html). Maybe bigger.

Note that such a thing could very easily spill into dwarven lands proper, and bring about all sorts of death and destruction. I'd guess the moot cathedral will be damaged or destroyed somewhere before the halfway point, for example.

Have we assessed how many days it's been since Xykon and Co. ported from the Desert Gate to Kraagor's? I got the impression their move was going to be extremely accurate -- i.e., they're at the gate now.

How long did it take the party to resolve their issues in the desert, fly AWAY from said desert, stay in Gnome-land, and then fly to the Moot?

I argue that even if it's only been somehow 3 days (Mechane always arrives in the nick of time), Xykon and Co. could likely have been meteor swarming their way through purple worms by now.

How many days does the Order actually have to get there and prevent the gate's destruction, and thereby catastrophe?

[Quild]

Have we assessed how many days it's been since Xykon and Co. ported from the Desert Gate to Kraagor's? I got the impression their move was going to be extremely accurate -- i.e., they're at the gate now.

They teleported 5 days ago (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?361715-Countdown-to-Belkar-s-Death-Scene).
But the ritual takes weeks to be performed anyway.

[Molan]

Hmmm. I don't necessarily disbelieve you but do you happen to know the issue # where they said it took weeks? I remember them talking about it a lot in Gobbotopia but I don't remember them ever giving s time frame.

"Weeks" seems like a particularly long timeframe, like, If it took that long it would be almost impossible for Team Evil to win because the forces of good would just swamp them especially now that so many people know about the rifts.

[theNater]

Hmmm. I don't necessarily disbelieve you but do you happen to know the issue # where they said it took weeks? I remember them talking about it a lot in Gobbotopia but I don't remember them ever giving s time frame.
:xykon:: ...they're likely to get upset if we loiter in their throne room for the few weeks (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0416.html) it takes to complete the rituals.


"Weeks" seems like a particularly long timeframe, like, If it took that long it would be almost impossible for Team Evil to win because the forces of good would just swamp them especially now that so many people know about the rifts.
How exactly do you see this swamping working? Xykon is well equipped to handle large groups of relatively weak characters, and the forces of good don't generally have huge piles of high-level characters just sitting around doing nothing.

[runeghost]

... and what makes you think that death is automatically the end of Belkar's story?

I'm with you. I've been thinking that Belkar's death and subsequent adventures in the afterlife will play a role for some time now. We saw Roy's afterlife, why wouldn't we see Belkar's? Especially when a portion of the story has been taking place in the outer planes.

[Yael]

I'm with you. I've been thinking that Belkar's death and subsequent adventures in the afterlife will play a role for some time now. We saw Roy's afterlife, why wouldn't we see Belkar's? Especially when a portion of the story has been taking place in the outer planes.

It could be, but his afterlife would be... Maybe more interesting, maybe going to the Abyss/any chaotic-evil plane? Maybe he'll come back with a template e.e

[Olinser]

:xykon:: ...they're likely to get upset if we loiter in their throne room for the few weeks (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0416.html) it takes to complete the rituals.


How exactly do you see this swamping working? Xykon is well equipped to handle large groups of relatively weak characters, and the forces of good don't generally have huge piles of high-level characters just sitting around doing nothing.

He's most likely referring to the fact that RIGHT NOW the OOTS is, in fact, in the middle of a rather large pile of high-level characters sitting around voting.

It really isn't an unreasonable question to ask why the assorted High Priests and their bodyguards don't all follow the OOTS to dust Xykon.

[theNater]

He's most likely referring to the fact that RIGHT NOW the OOTS is, in fact, in the middle of a rather large pile of high-level characters sitting around voting.

It really isn't an unreasonable question to ask why the assorted High Priests and their bodyguards don't all follow the OOTS to dust Xykon.
That is a reasonable question, but as this assembly isn't "the forces of good" and Roy's time estimate of how long they would take is "lunch tomorrow" rather than a week or two, I pretty strongly suspect Molan was referring to something else.