Making NPC groups active

[Pinjata]

Hey guys,

I'm soon to run about 10-session campaign. Problem with a module as-is is, that there are three groups that may intereact during the time my PCs will be crawling toward the dungeon. I'd appreciate your take on how would they act.

In the north, there is an abandoned village, recently occupied by an adult green dragon. Some mad dragon-worshippers have tracked big green down and want to serve him. How would dragon act in future veeks?

In the mid region there is Bugbear castle. Until recently, as people started moving into Town region, bugbears were warring with other tribes. Now, they took on looting the road(have employed mostly Goblins to dothe work). They may come in contact with the dragon, they may attack the town (about 20 houses in all). How would bugbears act in future veeks?

The third group are Mafia/Bandits in town. As miners and explorers started to move in, Bandits have taken over, are taking "protection fee", etc. Problem is, ever stronger adventurers are trickling in town and Bandits are aware someone will eventually wipe them out.

How should I roleplay three groups?

thanks

http://shrani.si/f/21/L8/1Id4UL3P/1470405101936.jpg

[TheYell]

The dragon demands tribute from the town in the form of live cattle.

The bugbears refuse to let the cows through.

The Mafia is pressured to buy the cows with the protection money but refuses to escort them to the dragon.

That's the mess your party comes back to after raiding the dungeon. Payment is due next full moon and every full moon thereafter.

[Slipperychicken]

Over the coming months, the dragon and bandits could see their fate coming, and make moves to legitimize their rule. They start writing semi-formal laws, negotiating with regional powers for recognition, begin regularizing their protection demands into more proper taxes, and put serious effort into improving safety and other public works. Given time, it may become clear to inhabitants that they are actually quite safe with a giant monster or camp of experienced warriors ready to protect them. The bandits would naturally try to wipe out competition from all the hiding spots they know, meaning that roads in their territory have fewer hazards than before. The dragon-cultists and bandits might even form an alliance against the bugbears and goblins as part of this effort (though there is of course the large matter of who rules what once the bugbears and adventurers stop coming..).

EDIT: And of course, you don't necessarily need to play out all their interactions in "real time", so to speak. You can also make a sort of setting-timeline, where you map out in advance things that are going to happen (As well as precisely when they will happen), or at least how they'll happen without the PCs' involvement. That can also make the world feel more alive, as the players hear news from lands both near and far. Also it can get you thinking of how the PCs might change the timeline, or how you can space events and news of them to convey information about the setting.

[Pinjata]

@Slipperychicken
Thanks a lot :) Great work.

Let me add one more, last piece to the puzzle. A competent Bad Guy adventurer is also coming this way. He wants to enter the Dungeon and get the Item. He is an able negotiator, has some cash and some firepower (deadly shapeshifter along with his gish abilities). Would he use any of the groups to do something for him or would he just ignore all three groups? He'd want to keep pesky adventurers away?