A war between 2 thrallherds

[Calthropstu]

So, lets say two thrallherds with identical stats were to go to war with eachother. We'll use lvl 20 thrallherds both with leadership scores of 35. Both kill eachother's minions at 35 per day.

How long before someone important notices and actively tries to kill them before they depopulate the entire continent?

[OldTrees1]

Only some creatures are sufficiently susceptible to a thallherd's call. So the population would not be entirely wiped out.

[khadgar567]

70 people for every day may I multiclass for khorne cleric cuz any blood god gonna be smilinig on trallheard and be carefull with chain trallherding

[Calthropstu]

Only some creatures are sufficiently susceptible to a thallherd's call. So the population would not be entirely wiped out.

Entirely, no.

But when the majority of the farmers are gone what is everyone going to eat?

[SethoMarkus]

Entirely, no.

But when the majority of the farmers are gone what is everyone going to eat?

Dead farmers?

[Calthropstu]

70 people for every day may I multiclass for khorne cleric cuz any blood god gonna be smilinig on trallheard and be carefull with chain trallherding

Combining yours and seth's post I believe gives us khorne flakes.

[AmberVael]

How long before someone important notices and actively tries to kill them before they depopulate the entire continent?

Someone noticing is probably going to happen pretty quickly. Losing 70 people a day to mind control wars is not going to be very subtle.

I don't think you could actually depopulate a continent this way, but the math varies really wildly depending on the setting.

[Daishain]

before they depopulate the entire continent?

How long? it will take an infinite period of time given no other interference. Even with a relatively low population culture, a continent produces several thousand new people a day.

[Calthropstu]

How long? it will take an infinite period of time given no other interference. Even with a relatively low population culture, a continent produces several thousand new people a day.

Actually, they would slowly depopulate area after area. At 70 people a day, it wouldn't take long before small cities get depopulated. That city would no longer produce people.

We are talking a death toll of 2500 a year in a single area, wiping it out. This is about the murder of the united states. Forgotten Realms kngdoms could not support that. It's like the city of waterdeep slowly vanishing, then moving on to the next city.

Even modern day NYC can't take that for long. It would be like focusing the entire murder rate of the US on one particular area moving from one locale to the next.

[MaxiDuRaritry]

Actually, they would slowly depopulate area after area. At 70 people a day, it wouldn't take long before small cities get depopulated. That city would no longer produce people.

We are talking a death toll of 2500 a year in a single area, wiping it out. This is about the murder of the united states. Forgotten Realms kngdoms could not support that. It's like the city of waterdeep slowly vanishing, then moving on to the next city.

Even modern day NYC can't take that for long. It would be like focusing the entire murder rate of the US on one particular area moving from one locale to the next.NYC averages 404 people born every day. (http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/09/27/new-york-today-baby-boom/?_r=0) Granted, population density is fairly high, but apparently, birthrates are in decline (http://nypost.com/2015/04/27/city-birth-rates-havent-been-this-low-since-great-depression/).

[AmberVael]

Actually, they would slowly depopulate area after area. At 70 people a day, it wouldn't take long before small cities get depopulated. That city would no longer produce people.

We are talking a death toll of 2500 a year in a single area, wiping it out. This is about the murder of the united states. Forgotten Realms kngdoms could not support that. It's like the city of waterdeep slowly vanishing, then moving on to the next city.

Even modern day NYC can't take that for long. It would be like focusing the entire murder rate of the US on one particular area moving from one locale to the next.

You are severely underestimating population growth. Also, you're depopulating by 25,000 a year, not 2,500.

Modern New York City would notice such a hit... but would actually still continue to grow. You'd be better off trying to kill the ancient Roman Empire, but even then you'd only slow their growth.

[Kish]

People would notice really quickly, however. Particularly, strong-willed people whose weaker-willed but not violent friends had suddenly gone off and enlisted in a gang war.

[AmberVael]

People would notice really quickly, however. Particularly, strong-willed people whose weaker-willed but not violent friends had suddenly gone off and enlisted in a gang war.

Yeah. Just because population growth is ridiculous nowadays doesn't make this a small amount of people being drawn away and killed. We notice serial killers, and this is going to be way bigger than that. This is serial mass murdering.

[Calthropstu]

You are severely underestimating population growth. Also, you're depopulating by 25,000 a year, not 2,500.

Modern New York City would notice such a hit... but would actually still continue to grow. You'd be better off trying to kill the ancient Roman Empire, but even then you'd only slow their growth.

So, 6 times the US murder rate.

You realize the standard metro area in pf/3.5 is 25,000. Waterdeep is 130k.

So 1/5 of the city's population is wiped out each year. So Waterdeep disappears.
Then Luskan.
Then Neverwinter.
Over the course of a century, every published metropolis falls. Then the rural areas.
After the largest cities are dead, the smaller ones begin falling.
25550 a year is huge. That's murdering a small city. Every year.

And if it actually IS a city that gets murdered, it's a city that no longer makes people. So it's both eliminating people and dropping birth rates.
As city after city began murdering itself, someone would HAVE to step in.

[SethoMarkus]

So, 6 times the US murder rate.

You realize the standard metro area in pf/3.5 is 25,000. Waterdeep is 130k.

So 1/5 of the city's population is wiped out each year. So Waterdeep disappears.
Then Luskan.
Then Neverwinter.
Over the course of a century, every published metropolis falls. Then the rural areas.
After the largest cities are dead, the smaller ones begin falling.
25550 a year is huge. That's murdering a small city. Every year.

And if it actually IS a city that gets murdered, it's a city that no longer makes people. So it's both eliminating people and dropping birth rates.
As city after city began murdering itself, someone would HAVE to step in.

What is the natural birth rate in Waterdeep? What is the natural (that is, before the thrallherd wars) death rate? Sure, 1/5 the population may die each year, but if 1/5 the poulation is born each year you're left with static growth. Don't get me wrong, it will decrease over time, but we're talking decades, not overnight.

If 100 people are born a day in Waterdeep and you kill off 70 per day, there's still growth. That is the point the others are trying to get across. 70 deaths per day (in addition to unaltered death rate) is certainly noticeable and a cause for alarm, but it will hardly wipe out the population. Over time, yes, but I more see the sudden vacancies encouraging immigration to the city as jobs open up, slowly sapping the entire area at a replenishable rate.

Edit: Not to mention this is a ridiculously silly way for the two thrallherds to go about their war. It would suit them much better to gather a small, charismatic force and use it to disseminate propaganda against the other, building up a civil war between the people. You don't need your minions and henchmen to be mind controlled, you just need them fanatical enough about a cause (real or imagined) to fight in your name, even by proxy. After one or two days of sending 35 thralls out to kill your enemy and only having 35 dead thralls and 35 dead thralls of your enemy to show for it, you'd think they would try something else...

[khadgar567]

What is the natural birth rate in Waterdeep? What is the natural (that is, before the thrallherd wars) death rate? Sure, 1/5 the population may die each year, but if 1/5 the poulation is born each year you're left with static growth. Don't get me wrong, it will decrease over time, but we're talking decades, not overnight.

If 100 people are born a day in Waterdeep and you kill off 70 per day, there's still growth. That is the point the others are trying to get across. 70 deaths per day (in addition to unaltered death rate) is certainly noticeable and a cause for alarm, but it will hardly wipe out the population. Over time, yes, but I more see the sudden vacancies encouraging immigration to the city as jobs open up, slowly sapping the entire area at a replenishable rate.

Edit: Not to mention this is a ridiculously silly way for the two thrallherds to go about their war. It would suit them much better to gather a small, charismatic force and use it to disseminate propaganda against the other, building up a civil war between the people. You don't need your minions and henchmen to be mind controlled, you just need them fanatical enough about a cause (real or imagined) to fight in your name, even by proxy. After one or two days of sending 35 thralls out to kill your enemy and only having 35 dead thralls and 35 dead thralls of your enemy to show for it, you'd think they would try something else...
I agree with you if I am one of the thrallherds I probably get important people first like 6 high level sorceress so I can use meta magiced fimbulwinter (http://brilliantgameologists.com/boards/index.php?topic=9892.0) to f my opponent's lands than maybe use remaining people to raid his supply lines

[Name1]

I think we are calculating this wrong...

If we have a Thrallherd with a 35 Leadership Score (even if I'm sure it doesn't matter above 25), and he went to war, wouldn't he turn his two cohort-thralls into Thrallherds too?
I'd say we are looking at the following:

A thrallherd can reach his highest level at 15 to gain a second thrall, so according to the Thrallherd-Table, we'd have the following:
1 Level 20 Thrallherd 10
2 Level 17 Thrallherd 10s
2 Level 16 Thrallherd 10s
4 Level 15 Thrallherd 10s
6 Level 14 Thrallherd 9s
10 Level 13 Thrallherd 8s
10 Level 12 Thrallherd 7s
10 Level 11 Thrallherd 6s
10 Level 10 Thrallherd 5s
10 Level 9 Thrallherd 4s
10 Level 8 Thrallherd 3s
10 Level 7 Thrallherd 2s
10 Level 6 Thrallherd 1s
10 Level 5 Thralls

For every single Thrallherd (except possibly the original), we'd be talking a Unseelie Fey Pterran, likely with 18's rolled for a total of a +6 from Charisma, a +7 if he has a Cloak of Charisma +2. If we use the elite array, we'd hae a -1 to those, making them +5/+6 instead.

Calculating with a +2 Cloak and the elite array, the lowest level of Thrallherd thus is likely to have a Leadership-Score of 13, increasing by two every time. Let's say at level 15 they instead gain a Cloak of Charisma +4, making it a +7 at that point.
The level 10 Thrallherd would thus have 22, the level 11 Thrallherd would have 24, and every subsequent Thrallherd would reach the maximum possible: 25.

Now, everyone who has a score of 21 on or higher adds another Level 6 Thrallherd 1, except for 25, which adds two.

Thus, we add 1 from every L10 TH5, 1 from every L11 TH6 and 2 for every higher Level TH. So let's add 90 Level 6 Thrallherd 1s.
So...

Combining the scores, we gain the following believers (taking the 90 Thrallherds metioned before out of the equation):
Level 1: 1000+200+300+400+750+1100+1350+1350+810+540+270+27 0+135 = 8475
Level 2: 100+20+30+40+70+110+130+130+78+52+26+26+13 = 825
Level 3: 10+10+20+40+60+70+70+42+28+14+14+7 = 385
Level 4: 10+10+20+30+40+40+24+16+8+8+4 = 210
Level 5: 10+20+20+20+20+12+8+4+4+2 = 120

Also, while a city may produce more then the Thrallherds kill, the freshly produced creatures will need time to mature into a form that can breed.

[OldTrees1]

Also, while a city may produce more then the Thrallherds kill, the freshly produced creatures will need time to mature into a form that can breed.

An undefined subsection of the population is vulnerable to Thrallherd. So really you only need a large enough population that the rest of the population (the not susceptible part) breeds susceptible members fast enough.

No real need to wait for maturation. Eventually the population of non susceptible individuals will be large enough to produce more than enough susceptible memebers.

[Name1]

An undefined subsection of the population is vulnerable to Thrallherd. So really you only need a large enough population that the rest of the population (the not susceptible part) breeds susceptible members fast enough.

No real need to wait for maturation. Eventually the population of non susceptible individuals will be large enough to produce more than enough susceptible memebers.

True, but if we are assuming a large enough population of non susceptible people to breed, the question becomes moot, because that population will never be able to die out due to not being affected in the first place. In that case, it wouldn't matter if 2 or 100 Thrallherds face off.

[Calthropstu]

True, but if we are assuming a large enough population of non susceptible people to breed, the question becomes moot, because that population will never be able to die out due to not being affected in the first place. In that case, it wouldn't matter if 2 or 100 Thrallherds face off.

Survival of the fittest at its best.

[OldTrees1]

True, but if we are assuming a large enough population of non susceptible people to breed, the question becomes moot, because that population will never be able to die out due to not being affected in the first place. In that case, it wouldn't matter if 2 or 100 Thrallherds face off.

True, so doesn't that make the question moot already? At 100 non susceptible people you have many more than enough to interbreed and although the ratio is not defined in the XPH it is probably near or over 50%* of the population that is insufficiently susceptible to join the herd.

*Based on the language that "some are more susceptible than others ... And so they come".

[Eldariel]

It will serve the natural selection leaving only the fittest who can resist the call to survive and eventually, over centuries, breed a population of very high Wis people, eventually enough to become a new subrace.

[Kish]

It's the gith all over again!

[Calthropstu]

It's the gith all over again!

...
Did I really just spawn gith on the prime material?

[Name1]

...
Did I really just spawn gith on the prime material?

Eh, it's similar enough.

[Zweisteine]

Did I really just spawn gith on the prime material?

Not yet. To break the eternal stalemate, you need to start a breeding program, breeding your best thralls into forms more suitable to be warriors and thrallherds (you could try to breed the two separately, but you do have limited thralls at any given time).

Because your most powerful warriors and psions are too powerful to leave in a breeding program, you enlist non-thralls to aid you by raising your experimental children. Eventually, you can use the non-thrall children to train the successive generations.

Then, before your secret super-soldier program can be put into action, they rebel, as do the soldiers in your opponent's secret super-soldier program, ending your reign of war over the continent.

Then the would-be super-soldiers can have idealogical divides and become the gith as we know them today.

[Segev]

Two points: Chicago just hit 500 confirmed murders for the year this past week, from a news story I saw the other day, if that gives a point of reference that's useful.

And, more on a chilling level, if we assume that the "weak willed" clause means that the Thrallherds are slowly killing off the sub-population of people who aren't "strong willed" enough to ignore their psychic call, they'll eventually only have the very young and impressionable who remain susceptible.

They might start being pied pipers just by virtue of there being no surviving adults weak willed enough to be subsumed, and wipe out a population by killing its replacement generations.

[Calthropstu]

Two points: Chicago just hit 500 confirmed murders for the year this past week, from a news story I saw the other day, if that gives a point of reference that's useful.

And, more on a chilling level, if we assume that the "weak willed" clause means that the Thrallherds are slowly killing off the sub-population of people who aren't "strong willed" enough to ignore their psychic call, they'll eventually only have the very young and impressionable who remain susceptible.

They might start being pied pipers just by virtue of there being no surviving adults weak willed enough to be subsumed, and wipe out a population by killing its replacement generations.

That was exactly what I was supposing as well. Though, when you are sitting in a tavern waiting for your psychic call to work and 12 year olds start hopping in and pledging to your service, people MIGHT get suspicious.

[Calthropstu]

Two points: Chicago just hit 500 confirmed murders for the year this past week, from a news story I saw the other day, if that gives a point of reference that's useful.

And, more on a chilling level, if we assume that the "weak willed" clause means that the Thrallherds are slowly killing off the sub-population of people who aren't "strong willed" enough to ignore their psychic call, they'll eventually only have the very young and impressionable who remain susceptible.

They might start being pied pipers just by virtue of there being no surviving adults weak willed enough to be subsumed, and wipe out a population by killing its replacement generations.

Right... and multiplying that by 50 would equal what these thrallherds would be doing.