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Jerrykhor
2017-02-20, 09:01 PM
Do you believe some people just have bad luck with dice? I probably do not, until now. One of my friends always have real bad luck with dice rolls. He is playing a rather unoptimised character (gnome fighter), which I think its part of the problem. But still, his dice rolls are just sad, especially in combat. He would constantly miss attacks, to the point where he can count the number of times he hits in the whole session. And even when he does hit, he rolls 1 or 2 on the damage dice.

The ultimate kicker was when he tried to do some social stuff to an NPC, and he had to roll on deception and persuasion. He rolled 1 on both.

Its quite a pity, as his RP is quite good, but he feels useless because of bad rolls. In contrast, another guy in my party is a poor RPer - his character is the boring, silent type, he hardly does anything interesting, but yet he rolls good numbers in combat.

Me myself, I have pretty horrible luck on the d10. I have always played casters, and whether its Eldritch blast or Firebolt, they might as well be d4 because i hardly roll higher than that. There was once I had to make a Wis save and i rolled a 9. I use Dark One's Own Luck to add a d10, and I rolled 1 :smallfurious:

Phoenixguard09
2017-02-21, 08:23 AM
It seems to be the cool thing to say that luck is an illusion and dice are entirely random, provided they aren't physically skewed.

But in my experience, I cannot agree with that. I was once given a bunch of pink d6's from an old Warhammer player who I used to hang with at the FLGS. He told me they were cursed, and proceeded to demonstrate that he consistently would not roll higher than a three with any of them. I took them off his hands because I did not believe in luck and figured they would be just the same for me as any others.

I noticed very swiftly over the next few weeks that these dice were abnormal. I rolled them many, many times and it was rare for me to get anything over a 4. I invited friends to try their luck, and most of the time, the curse held true.

I used to keep all my dice in a little plastic case. (At the time I only played Warhammer really, so all I had were d6's) Within the year I found that the curse had spread. My larger red dice which I used almost exclusively for competitive play were failing me regularly. The green dice I used far less often, and were more likely to be brought out of the case for the use of a diceless visitor, were horrible by this stage, and were almost as unlikely to roll well as the little pink ones.

I truly believe that the pink dice spread their bad luck to the other dice in close proximity to them.

Sadly, the horror doesn't end there.

I bought myself two dice cubes, one black, the other blue, full of d6's. My luck returned to more normal levels, and I found the black ones to be my favourites. One afternoon I return home to find my little brother has been playing with my miniatures, and horror of horrors, has been using my dice. Worse, I see those little pink devils strewn in amongst my black beauties.

They've never been the same since...

TLDR: Never trust pink dice, especially if offered as a gift.

Thrudd
2017-02-21, 10:15 AM
There is such a thing as poor quality dice, as well. They can be unbalanced, uneven. Slight deformities can affect the chances of landing on one side or another. This is why casinos are so particular about their dice and they are rigorously tested to ensure perfect weight and balance. Cheap dice might just be off a little. This can certainly seem like a "curse". Try switching dice, use other people's dice, see if the luck is different.

However, there is also sometimes just strange luck trends. I used the same set of translucent red dice for many years- whenever I was a player I would roll poorly, the d20 especially seemed cursed. But when I was DM suddenly those dice were magic and goblins were fighting like dragons. It may be because I rolled much more often as DM - but it always seemed to come up high when it mattered (combat against the players), and not when it's just a random monster check or whatever table I'm rolling on. Getting attacked by a lone spider, it needs 17 to hit you? It's probably going to get a 20 and roll max damage. My PC fighting a lone spider, and I only need 12 to hit? I will miss for three straight rounds.

Professor Chimp
2017-02-21, 11:10 AM
I have a simple red d20 with white numbers. It is plain and unremarkable. It is probably just coincidence and dumb luck, but how I roll consistently high with it, is uncanny. I rarely roll lower than 10 with it, have only landed a natural 1 a grand total of 4 times in about 3 years of using it, and the amount of natural 20s is staggering. It defies belief, but I once rolled 7 natural 20s in a row. After the 3rd, I started rolling in the open, because the players wouldn't believe me. They just kept coming. The 8th roll was a 16. They've since not-so-affectionately come to refer it as 'NO!', the most common reaction whenever I pull it out as DM. On the flip side, it's evil powers only function when I DM, its failure rate is phenomenally higher when I play.

Also, back when I used to play Warhammer 40K, whenever I fielded my Speed Freak Orks, I tended to roll a fair amount more 5+ in the shooting phase than the odds should give me. In-universe, Ork weapons and vehicles more or less work because the Orks believe they should and when enough of them gather, their latent psychic field makes their belief reality. Basically, if it looks like a shooty thing, it will work like one if you're an Ork. I like to think their 'Clap Your Hands If You Believe' powers extend beyond the fictional into reality.

Potato_Priest
2017-02-21, 03:03 PM
I have a set of 4 blue d6es that I have simply stopped using at this point. Whenever I roll them, I rarely get anything above a 3. This doesn't seem to apply to other players using them though, so I now just ask around for someone else's d6es to use.

JAL_1138
2017-02-21, 03:29 PM
The rational side of me says that dice supersitions are bupkis and that only physical things such as, for example, the manufacture of the dice (defects in shape, weight distribution, how the numbers are distributed across the die, etc) or the rolling technique (not giving the dice a good shake to randomize properly, skidding the die instead of rolling, etc.) make any difference in the outcome, and that much "bad luck" is either an artifact of die defects, rolling issues, an odd but statistically possible string of low numbers occurring randomly, or confirmation bias/selective memory.

The rest of me says dice superstitions are absolutely true and bad luck is contagious, and that certain of my dice are lucky--not biased, but lucky, in that they roll well when I need them to, and normally or even consistently low the rest of the time; and others that are the exact opposite, doing great on inconsequential rolls but always failing any that matter; and many of them have definite preferences. I have one that crits like crazy when I DM but solidly refuses to roll above single-digits when I'm a player; and another that goes in streaks--phenomenally good or phenomenally bad, with no middle ground; some that like to be used for skill checks but not attack rolls or saves, and vice-versa; etc., etc., so on and so forth.

Anonymouswizard
2017-02-21, 04:03 PM
I've had dice that roll particularly well or particularly poorly, and even had ones that changed session to session.

There was one point where my character rolled about 3 critical failures in a session (the chance of one critical failure was one in two hundred and sixteen), and consistently about one critical failure every other session, and only rarely a critical success. This got to the point where the character had to go in for in-universe sin cleansing because criticals directly affected your sin counter (I eventually decided that there was a demon interested in him as he'd slipped out of their grasp a few years prior, his backstory being that he was an ex-cultist).

I also have a set of five metal dice that I've started using almost exclusively, because they tend to roll relatively low (and I like GURPS), except for the one time I used them when we were playing in the GM's houseboat. After three consecutive critical failures almost derailed the session I borrowed some dice from the GM and it all went better.

However in most cases this is because I tend to use fairly cheap dice, and nobody in the groups I play in worries about true randomisation, and so with my storage and rolling habits they tend towards certain numbers. While luck is a definite thing dice trends are normally due to some quirk in the dice manufacture or rolling style.

The weirdest was when one die rolled only 7s and 13s for the entire session, but that was about a year ago and it's gone back to a more reasonable distribution.

Winter_Wolf
2017-02-21, 04:26 PM
Here's my problem with "it's just bad dice": I consistently roll failure with any kind of dice. And even in a system like pre 3.x D&D (sometimes high was good, sometimes low was good), I'd roll the opposite end of success. One can imagine I tended to get creative in ways that would minimize how many die rolls of needed to make. Universal roll above/roll under rules don't treat me so well either, and even assuming it IS all just bum dice, I have some kind of luck with getting terrible dice. Different brands, different batches, different cities in different states. After a while a guy just runs out of places to point the finger, eh?

Bogwoppit
2017-02-21, 04:59 PM
"I know it's all just random chance really but my dice are out to get me."

No. Unless you have defective dice - try logging a hundred rolls, and see if they really favour some particular numbers - you are just selectively remembering the times the dice confirmed your superstitious theory.

It's called confirmation bias. We all suffer from it.

Let's be sensible folks. If your really think you have influence over random dice, then devise experiments to test your hypothesis.

Love: your empirical Bogwoppit.

Quertus
2017-02-21, 08:09 PM
I absolutely believe in "dice luck". However, as a proper scientist, I also have explanations for most such behavior.

Sure, there's confirmation bias. However, I'm ruling that out via proper scientific method.

Then there's defective / weighted dice. That's my MO. I never buy dice without testing them first. Well, almost never. As an old-school D&D player, my first priority was usually the d8. I rolled so well, several DMs have confiscated my dice for testing (anyone who knows me knows I won't fudge my rolls). Although they always rolled above average, despite hundreds of rolls, all DMs conceded that my dice passes whatever tests they researched for "weighted" dice.

Still, the rolls I get with these dice are better than what rigorous testing indicates they should be. Well, sort of. My rolls conform much closer to a Narrativist PoV than to a Simulationist one. That is, how likely they are to roll well depends, in part, on how much I need the roll. And, for some of my characters, mind, that's "it'll be good until I need the roll". Despite my "weighted" d8s, I once rolled straight 1s for HP. That's less than one in a billion odds, btw, even on a balanced die.

Similarly, I have a friend with a big'ol dice bag, who lets everyone use his dice. For everyone else, the dice behave well. For him... Well, let's just say he'll often quote the astronomical odds against his failure before rolling... and then usually still fail. It boggles the mind.

Or it would, if I hadn't met someone with demonstrable talent at influencing the outcome of his dice. He could pretty much chose what he rolled. With a little practice, I was able to greatly influence my outcomes. I was looking at about 50% success at hitting the chosen number in a test run of 100 rolls. That was sufficient evidence, for me, that one could influence dice, and that it was a learnable skill.

It is, therefore, my fervent belief that most of us - or, at least, those of us with "luck" (good or bad) - subconsciously influence the outcome of our rolls. Even if we are not consciously trained to do so - or even consciously aware that it is possible to do so. I cannot think of a way to prove this hypothesis, but it fits the facts.

Phoenixguard09
2017-02-21, 09:06 PM
"I know it's all just random chance really but my dice are out to get me."

No. Unless you have defective dice - try logging a hundred rolls, and see if they really favour some particular numbers - you are just selectively remembering the times the dice confirmed your superstitious theory.

It's called confirmation bias. We all suffer from it.

Let's be sensible folks. If your really think you have influence over random dice, then devise experiments to test your hypothesis.

Love: your empirical Bogwoppit.

I have tested my pink dice, many, many times over the last decade. I have logged the results, hell, even filmed them. They are evil, and have ruined many a gamer's day over the years before I acquired them. I see keeping them in my possession, hidden away from the world, as doing my bit to preserve the sanity of gamers everywhere.

I have seen the face of evil, and it is pink with a single pip, either black or white.

*EDIT: I got so caught up in dramatics that I forgot to post the log of my testing. I rolled a single one of the pink dice, one of the ones with black pips.


2
3
1
3
3
3
4
5
4
3
4
2
1
2
1
1
3
4
5
1
3
1
2
3
1
1
4
3
3
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5
1
2
3
5
2
5
3
2
2
1
3
1
1
1
2
3
3
1
2
2
6
2
1
2
4
3
5
4
2
6
6
6
4
1
3
3
1
5
1
1
6
3
3
1
1
1
2
3
3
2
3
4
2
4
1
1
2
1
1
2
2
4
4
3
1
1
5
2
1

I'm going to try and make a table of this.



D6 Result (1-6)
Number of Times Result Appeared


1
29


2
21


3
24


4
13


5
8


6
5

Madbox
2017-02-21, 10:34 PM
Pheonixguard, I find it hilarious that of your handful of 6s, three were in a row.

As far as dice luck goes, I tend to have average rolls, but have seen some oddities with others.

There's a guy at my FLGS who consistently gets nailed by crits. It's not DMs picking on him, he just gets critted on all the time. When he's at my table, I openly roll when attacking him, because he will get nailed at least 3 or 4 times per session. Other DMs have comparable results. He plays reasonably optimized characters, so it sorta balances out, but still.

There's a kid at the AL table I DM who has freakish luck with his d6s. He plays a wizard, and when he hit level 5 and got Fireball, I let him borrow my brick of d6s. He cast Fireball three times that session, and the lowest roll was a 34, well above the average of 28. I told him the dice clearly like him, and let him keep them. We've played four hours a week for about four months, and I've seen him roll below 30 maybe twice. Keep in mind this is a kid. His response to any combat encounter is fireball or lightning bolt, so I've seen those spells a lot. The dice that used to be mine? They never rolled like that for me, I got average results.

2D8HP
2017-02-21, 11:23 PM
.....The dice that used to be mine? They never rolled like that for me, I got average results.


This is often a result of not paying proper respect to Tyche and her daughters Tymora and... the other one, whom we shall refer to as "The Lady".

Before rolling dice it's wise to chant, "Please, oh please, oh please!, or "Baby needs a new pair of shoes!"

Another thing that works well is to be polite to elevators, as the have to ability to take you to the upper levels of the Abyss.

Since except for the extra broken glass all over the streets, and the sour expressions on peoples faces, it's difficult to distinguish between the upper layers of the Abyss and where you were actually trying to go (be alert to any sensation that feel as if you've travelled more floors then indicated), you may not know that you are in the Abyss until you have an unending series of bad rolls.

This is why one should thank elevators for the ride, press the buttons gently, and appear to be polite to the other passengers (unless they ill treat the elevator). Farting may take you straight to the Abyss!

Since elevators will not interfere with another elevators punishment of a passenger, to get out of the Abyss you must gain the forgiveness of the one that brought you there.

Kind words and contrition to the elevator help, but if you farted than you must gift the elevator with a spray of pleasing air freshener.

Good luck.

Madbox
2017-02-22, 12:23 AM
Before rolling dice it's wise to chant, "Please, oh please, oh please!, or "Baby needs a new pair of shoes!"

I find "Now watch me roll *worst result possible*" to be effective, myself.

Anonymouswizard
2017-02-22, 04:20 AM
I have tested my pink dice, many, many times over the last decade. I have logged the results, hell, even filmed them. They are evil, and have ruined many a gamer's day over the years before I acquired them. I see keeping them in my possession, hidden away from the world, as doing my bit to preserve the sanity of gamers everywhere.

I have seen the face of evil, and it is pink with a single pip, either black or white.

*EDIT: I got so caught up in dramatics that I forgot to post the log of my testing. I rolled a single one of the pink dice, one of the ones with black pips.


2
3
1
3
3
3
4
5
4
3
4
2
1
2
1
1
3
4
5
1
3
1
2
3
1
1
4
3
3
4
5
1
2
3
5
2
5
3
2
2
1
3
1
1
1
2
3
3
1
2
2
6
2
1
2
4
3
5
4
2
6
6
6
4
1
3
3
1
5
1
1
6
3
3
1
1
1
2
3
3
2
3
4
2
4
1
1
2
1
1
2
2
4
4
3
1
1
5
2
1

I'm going to try and make a table of this.



D6 Result (1-6)
Number of Times Result Appeared


1
29


2
21


3
24


4
13


5
8


6
5





I'm going to guess that they're suffering from a defect. I have a bunch of orange d6s with white pips that have a weird distribution (they rarely roll fives, but a decent number of 6s and tend towards 4), I haven't tested them yet because they aren't particularly good or bad in the long run (many 6s but few 1s, but averaging 3-4), and honestly I could likely make them a lot more 'random' by not having them sit 6-side up when I'm not using then.

Astofel
2017-02-22, 04:28 AM
I think that observing 'dice luck' is more likely the more dice you own.

Until relatively recently, I only had two sets of dice, and they behaved more or less normally. Then I began expanding my collection, and now when I play I find myself putting dice in 'time out' if they roll poorly a couple of times in a row. I'm sure before long I'll have identified which individual dice are cursed for blessed.

JAL_1138
2017-02-22, 11:02 AM
I think that observing 'dice luck' is more likely the more dice you own.

Until relatively recently, I only had two sets of dice, and they behaved more or less normally. Then I began expanding my collection, and now when I play I find myself putting dice in 'time out' if they roll poorly a couple of times in a row. I'm sure before long I'll have identified which individual dice are cursed for blessed.

I almost think you're less likely to spot them (although more likely to own them, since the more dice you have the more likely it is you get some with favorable imperfections), or rather that it'll take longer to spot them. If you keep switching them out, you're less likely to detect the actual tendency for any individual die. A short string of low rolls could be a perfectly random result.

2D8HP
2017-02-22, 11:17 AM
....A short string of low rolls could be a perfectly random result.


Can also result from not being hospitable to a drifter who's wearing an eyepatch, and carrying a staff (watch out for Ravens).

Boasting that there is no better weaver than you may also be unwise.

(I think I heard that somewhere)

And don't give knives as a gift, or put a hat on a bed (why take the chance?)

Amphetryon
2017-02-22, 12:54 PM
I think most stories of dice luck come from observation bias. We tend to remember PC failure more than PC success, in most games I know. This is because successes are generally more common, and failures are generally more disruptive. A string of 20 consecutive rolls between 11 and 14 will rarely get talked about after a Pathfinder session, whereas a string of 20 consecutive rolls between 1 and 4 might be lamented for several sessions after the fact, even though the spread and scope were the same.

Segev
2017-02-22, 06:38 PM
One of the amusing things about probability is that there can be any combination of possible results. Some are just more likely than others.

But consider this: If, out of a group of 1,000,000 people, all of whom you have roll 1d100 1,000 times each, you take the classic statistical measurements of their pools of results, you will likely have a Gaussian distribution of average results.

But the thing about a Gaussian distribution is that you are highly likely to have at least one person out in the tails.

Such people would be characterized as "(un)lucky." Now, whether their luck holds after this experiment is questionable. The independent nature of the rolls would mean they have the same odds of rolling well or poorly in the future that anybody else does. However, again, if you were to study, say, 100 groups of these 1,000,000-person experimental groups (bringing us to 100 million people, which is probably a generous but not ridiculous estimate of the population of the world that consists of "gamers"), and you watched their later luck, there would be a Gaussian distribution of the luck of all of them. Including those who were in the tails of the first experiment. Amongst those, some will still show consistently "good" or "bad" results.

So, yes. There ARE "lucky" and "unlucky" people. They're just outliers on the probability curves. There's no force involved. It's just randomness behaving as randomness does.

bulbaquil
2017-02-22, 09:49 PM
Dice are neither lucky nor unlucky. However, they do have personalities, and most of mine seem to enjoy playing tricks on me. I'm pretty sure my dice were the ones that came up with the "confirmation bias" myth in the first place as an excuse to justify their behavior.

Potato_Priest
2017-02-22, 10:00 PM
I think that observing 'dice luck' is more likely the more dice you own.

Until relatively recently, I only had two sets of dice, and they behaved more or less normally. Then I began expanding my collection, and now when I play I find myself putting dice in 'time out' if they roll poorly a couple of times in a row. I'm sure before long I'll have identified which individual dice are cursed for blessed.

Or perhaps you'll take to putting your dice on carpet patches in a big circle to read them stories before a game.

No offense intended. I was just amused by the phrase "time out" :biggrin:

Quertus
2017-02-22, 10:20 PM
There's a kid at the AL table I DM who has freakish luck with his d6s. He plays a wizard, and when he hit level 5 and got Fireball, I let him borrow my brick of d6s. He cast Fireball three times that session, and the lowest roll was a 34, well above the average of 28. I told him the dice clearly like him, and let him keep them. We've played four hours a week for about four months, and I've seen him roll below 30 maybe twice. Keep in mind this is a kid. His response to any combat encounter is fireball or lightning bolt, so I've seen those spells a lot. The dice that used to be mine? They never rolled like that for me, I got average results.

5th level fireball... Lowest roll was 34... Average of 28... Ouch, my head!


One of the amusing things about probability is that there can be any combination of possible results. Some are just more likely than others.

But consider this: If, out of a group of 1,000,000 people, all of whom you have roll 1d100 1,000 times each, you take the classic statistical measurements of their pools of results, you will likely have a Gaussian distribution of average results.

But the thing about a Gaussian distribution is that you are highly likely to have at least one person out in the tails.

Such people would be characterized as "(un)lucky." Now, whether their luck holds after this experiment is questionable. The independent nature of the rolls would mean they have the same odds of rolling well or poorly in the future that anybody else does. However, again, if you were to study, say, 100 groups of these 1,000,000-person experimental groups (bringing us to 100 million people, which is probably a generous but not ridiculous estimate of the population of the world that consists of "gamers"), and you watched their later luck, there would be a Gaussian distribution of the luck of all of them. Including those who were in the tails of the first experiment. Amongst those, some will still show consistently "good" or "bad" results.

So, yes. There ARE "lucky" and "unlucky" people. They're just outliers on the probability curves. There's no force involved. It's just randomness behaving as randomness does.

Short version: you're right, but I like my answer better.

Long version: true, statistically, someone, somewhere should have rolled that one in a million (or one in a billion) character. The difference here is, I got several one in a million results (straight 1s for HP, improbably high rolls for damage / healing, etc) - all of which were results I wanted. The odds against pulling off 4 one in a million stunts are, well, astronomical. And outside expected standard deviations, even given the entire gaming community of the planet.

Thus, I suspect I could subconsciously influence the dice even before I learned to consciously influence the dice.

Just as I suspect others sometimes even less probable "luck" isn't just statistics.

Astofel
2017-02-22, 10:26 PM
Or perhaps you'll take to putting your dice on carpet patches in a big circle to read them stories before a game.

No offense intended. I was just amused by the phrase "time out" :biggrin:

You mean you don't do that? My dice's favourite is "The Little d20 That Could".

Altair_the_Vexed
2017-02-23, 03:17 AM
Does this count as a religion as per the forum rules? :smallfrown:

Segev
2017-02-23, 02:29 PM
Long version: true, statistically, someone, somewhere should have rolled that one in a million (or one in a billion) character. The difference here is, I got several one in a million results (straight 1s for HP, improbably high rolls for damage / healing, etc) - all of which were results I wanted. The odds against pulling off 4 one in a million stunts are, well, astronomical. And outside expected standard deviations, even given the entire gaming community of the planet.

Thus, I suspect I could subconsciously influence the dice even before I learned to consciously influence the dice.

Just as I suspect others sometimes even less probable "luck" isn't just statistics.

I was expressly addressing the odds of an individual having consistently good (or bad) results on dice. It isn't that, statistically, somebody should win the lottery once. It's that, statistically, if you have a large enough sample size, you will find somebody who wins it nearly every time he plays. (The reason real-world lotteries don't have this problem is that they set up their odds so that you won't ever have a large enough sample size.)

Jay R
2017-02-24, 02:54 PM
A. There are dice that have air bubbles inside, and are not random.

B. With fair dice, the rolls will be generally fair. But unless you've done a Chi-squared test on your die rolls, you are taking it on blind faith that they are fair dice.

C. In poker, the game is decided by relatively few hands with the biggest pots. Even if your hands overall were fair, your outcome is determined by the very few hands with the big money. Similarly, the three or four rolls that determine who wins the one fight in which your life is actually at risk are the most important. The generally fair mix of Spot and Appraise rolls don't matter if those three rolls are 1s.

D. With fair dice, everything will work out in the long run. But the long run is a 1,000 years, not a single campaign.

JBPuffin
2017-02-24, 04:17 PM
I love numerical randomness. The apophenia a string of numbers on the top face of a cube, dodecahedron, or caltrop can produce is simply amazing. Out of all the dice I've rolled, I don't think I've ever gotten a flawed one (somehow), and it's rare that I consistently use a set of die for long. My dad's pink d20 did wonders for my light cleric this past session...

Prince Zahn
2017-02-24, 04:42 PM
OOOh yess. simply yes. dice can, in fact, be cursed, we have several dice hexes (and even more hexed dice) in our group.

I remember my most obvious experience with cursed dice, was when I forgot my usual dice when going to a convention. I booked a game to try out Numenera for the first time, and another game the next day. that day I hastily purchased a cool-looking translucent pair of yellow dice with blue blotches inside them that made the whole dice look green.
I don't remember the character I took, had something to do with gravity I think. but it was a miserable time, for that entire day, every time I tried roll something on the dice, they made me fail miserably.

It wasn't until that evening that I met with a friend of mine, without going into detail he knows a thing or two about magic rituals and he set up a small ritual which he told me was a "quick fix".

the next morning, on day two, I still got some bad roles, but I saw I also got some good roles too, which cheered me up a bit. ever since then those dice have been pretty much balanced, and that "quick fix" was enough to cleanse the dice even years later. :smallsmile:

If you need more proof, our DM's "lucky dice" are clearly has some magic in it to only roll really high or really low rolls. my favorite red dice are cursed to always roll the lowest on initiative rolls (coming from someone who often have a respectable +3 DEX modifier) and one of our friends has never rolled a natural 1 on attack rolls for as long as I've known him (and he rolled a lot of attack rolls!)