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View Full Version : D&D 5e/Next Attn: Statisticians. Would allowing this break my game?



Chrltrn
2017-06-05, 10:17 PM
Say hypothetically there was a way in my game for any player to, anytime they make an attack roll without advantage or disadvantage, opt to throw with "mid-vantage", where they throw 3d20 and take the middle. At face value this appears to me to just give a better probability of mid-range results: Way fewer crits, and crit-fails, more 10s... But, I'm thinking about the way the game works, and I have a feeling it might lead to drastically increased chances to hit.

Can anyone with a better grasp of the numbers tell me what they say?

Thanks!

JNAProductions
2017-06-05, 10:52 PM
I believe the average hit value needed is 8 for players and 12 for monsters (against well-armored players). So this is a buff for players, and a nerf to monsters. But it will eventually become a buff for everyone, as AC doesn't scale as well as attack bonuses.



Die Roll
Chance


1
.725%


2
2.075%


3
3.275%


4
4.325%


5
5.225%


6
5.975%


7
6.575%


8
7.025%


9
7.325%


10
7.475%


11
7.475%


12
7.325%


13
7.025%


14
6.575%


15
5.975%


16
5.225%


17
4.325%


18
3.275%


19
2.075%


20
.725%



AvatarVecna did the math, by the way.

PeteNutButter
2017-06-06, 12:17 AM
Takes a way a lot of the swinginess of the game. It's pretty similar to using 3d6 or 2d10. Definately a buff to players as consistency is a win for players or can be designed with a good chance to win.

I'd say make it a feat with some other features.

zeek0
2017-06-06, 01:53 AM
Here's a great site that does the math for you!: http://anydice.com/program/be83

Comparing 1d20 to midvantage, the average is the same. The only difference is that the middle numbers are far more likely.

But, it groups results far less toward the middle than 2d10 or 3d6 : http://anydice.com/program/be81

Assuming JNA's average hit threshold values are correct (I'd love to see documentation!), midvantage has a 7% higher chance of hitting a monster than 1d20. Monsters don't want to use it, since they'd have a 3% lower chance to hit.

So, it's definitely a buff. It's like adding 1.4 to everyone's attack roll. I can only imagine players reverting back to 1d20 if they feel certain they will hit, and they want a shot at a crit. I'd say that it removes that excitement from the game - a basic problem. I wouldn't allow it at my table.

Chrltrn
2017-06-06, 02:03 AM
Thanks a lot, everybody!