Eldritch blast vs my long bow, please check & fix my math

[MarkVIIIMarc]

I have a level 5 Lore Bard and keep thinking about 2 free Magical Secret spells at level 6.

Reading some of the posts about Eldritch blast makes me want to double check my understanding.

My Character: Elf Lore Bard
St 9
Dex 17
Con 13
Int 9
Wis 13
Cha 18

Our DM did not allow feats at level 4.

So I have a long bow which if I understand right has +6 to hit and does D8 + 3 damage. So ~7.5 damage per round 50% of the time on an AC17 foe, criticals not calculated. For 3.75 per round damage?

Eldritch blast, I'll be level 6 so 2-D10 damage for 10.5 per round and it will hit AC17 55% of the time. Does this get criticals? Am I doing the math correctly? I don't think I've made a ranged spell attack. This has 5.75 per round damage?

That's a bit of an improvement. I suppose I could think of it as a 53% improvement on my most basic attack.

Also in favor of Eldritch blast:
- I'll no longer be so concerned counting arrows
- It does not require concentration
- I can cast EB from a prison cell or social situation w/o my equipment

In favor of not taking it / my arrows:
- My bow doesn't use one of my cantrip slots
- My bow can be used from inside a sphere of silence
- I can find something which will make more of a difference

Anything else I should take into account?

Do I seem to have a good grasp on the math and the situation?

Thanks

[Degwerks]

Yes the Eldritch Blast cantrip is a better offensive action for you to use at your current level. If you were to later grab a 5th level ranger spell through Magical Secrets, the one that gives you a bonus action ranged weapon attacks, I think 2 shots, then the longbow would start doing more damage.

Eldritch Blast does crit by the way. Any spell with an attack roll can too. Keep the longbow for a backup weapon.

[Sigreid]

Keep in mind that depending on what you want to do with feats, you can take the feat Spell Sniper and your EB will have a longer range, without costing you a magical secret for a cantrip.

This assumes that at level 8 your DM is ok with feats.

As was mentioned above, keep the longbow. There are times when EB is not a good tool (such as when fighting helmed horrors.

[nickl_2000]

Let me throw another wrinkle in here for you to consider.

Why not save your magical secrets for other spells and take a 2 level dip into Warlock. That will give you a few short rest spell slots, EB (and oanother cantrip), and several powerful invocations. Since it's only a 2 level dip, you will still be able 9th level Bard spells

[Willie the Duck]

Let me throw another wrinkle in here for you to consider.

Why not save your magical secrets for other spells and take a 2 level dip into Warlock. That will give you a few short rest spell slots, EB (and oanother cantrip), and several powerful invocations. Since it's only a 2 level dip, you will still be able 9th level Bard spells

In particular, the one that gives you +cha to each rays' damage. and access to the Hex spell, which adds +1d6 to each rays damage (and you can use either your warlock or your bard 1st level spells to cast).

I suspect that OP's DM doesn't allow MC, otherwise why waste one of 2 precious magic secrets (the primary reason to choose Lore over Valor bard) on Eldritch Blast. However, I get it. I am playing a Lore Bard 6, Warlock 1(soon to be 2) right now. There are so many times at level 6 where I would look at the encounter and say, "well, no one is casting a spell for me to counter (MS#1), my party is hopelessly comingled with the enemy, so I can't use my area effects (stinking cloud, hypnotic pattern, and MS#2, fireball), and most of my other spells are going to be relatively ineffective. I guess it is choose between that one single arrow shot, or Vicious Mockery (which has gotten less good, now that lots of enemies now have 2+ attacks)."

[nickl_2000]

You have a solid point about MC likely not being allowed when feats aren't at level 4. I just thought it would be a good mention.


Personally, I've got a College of Glamour Bard in a campaign that is currently on hold that will be taking a 2 level dip into Warlock (ArchFey Patron because college of glamour) after he hits level 5 bard.

[Elminster298]

Another point to mention... You can "refluff" the EB/longbow interaction as "firing" your Eldritch blasts as arrows from your bow. Keep mundane arrows on you as well for silence, anti- magic, etc. I had a "tiefling" GOO Tomelock that I refluffed as beholder heritage that cast spells through eyestalks on his head. You can refluff anything as long as it doesn't change anything mechanically.

[MarkVIIIMarc]

Thanks for the tips. I'm going to look into that multi-class. MAYBE if I do quite the bit of role playing it will be allowed.

[ShneekeyTheLost]

Gets better with Hex. Yo, I hear you like damage. So have some more damage while you're doing damage. +1d6 per shot on top of your 1d10+Cha mod.

[Finger6842]

For magical secrets the big choice is between swift quiver and haste. Haste can be cast on any party member and adds ac plus one attack of any kind, my personal choice. Swift quiver adds free arrows and two bow attacks but is self only. Both are concentration spells so can't be used at the same time but you could take both.

For the second slot take any spell you like, I chose counterspell but if you have a party member with counterspell already it's redundant. I wanted fireball but choices have to be made. The other party Bard took fireball and a mount spell.

As for multi-class, you can spend 2 levels any way you like without losing your level 18 Magical Secrets and warlock is a great one. I took wizard for my dip, it's way less DPR but great utility and Find Familiar is invaluable for advantage on attack rolls. I have taken Fighter in the past as well. Undoubtedly your ability scores play a big role in multi-class choices.

[thoroughlyS]

There is one mathematical error you are making: Eldritch Blast is not 1 attack for 2d10, it is 2 attacks for 1d10 each. Using your example target of a creature with AC 17, you have the following results:

30.25% chance to hit with both beams (average 11 damage)
49.50% chance to hit with one beam (average 5.5 damage)
20.25% chance to miss

This makes your damage output ~6.05 damage per round.

[Christian]

There is one mathematical error you are making: Eldritch Blast is not 1 attack for 2d10, it is 2 attacks for 1d10 each. Using your example target of a creature with AC 17, you have the following results:

30.25% chance to hit with both beams (average 11 damage)
49.50% chance to hit with one beam (average 5.5 damage)
20.25% chance to miss

This makes your damage output ~6.05 damage per round.
Just for the record: this is exactly right for the damage average, but the analysis of the initial error is incorrect.

It doesn't actually matter for multiple attacks whether you calculate the expected damage from each attack and then sum them, or take the average total damage and multiply by the hit chance. (A+A)*B = A*B + A*B = (A+A)*B*B + 2*A*B*(1-B)

The error in the initial math is that the average roll on 2d10 is not 10.5, it's 11.

11*0.55 = 6.05

Jsketchy's way of getting to that, while possibly unnecessarily complicated, does help point out another advantage of the multiple attacks of EB compared to your single arrow shot: reliability. Not only does your lower attack bonus with the bow mean that you'll miss half the time, compared to only 45% of the time with the EB, but because you're rolling twice to hit with EB, there's only a 20.25% chance of missing with both blasts. So nearly 80% of the time, you'll be doing at least some damage ... Multiple attacks are great for reducing your number of 'wasted rounds'.

[MarkVIIIMarc]

Are there any rules with declaring where your attacks are going before you start rolling?

I have seen these is navy mini games.

Something like: I can roll my first EB at an enemy and depending on the enemy's resistance or death I can roll the second at another target?