real life progress levels

[PapaMojo]

In d20 future it talks about progress levels, a way to classify how advanced a civilization is. Does anybody have any estimates on when humanity will reach those progress levels in real life?

[Celestia]

By the end of this century, we will either be exploring the stars or dead.

[Alent]

By the end of this century, we will either be exploring the stars or dead.

And depending on your opinions about the Tech Singularity and brain uploads, possibly both at the same time. :smallamused:

[Bohandas]

By the end of this century, we will either be exploring the stars or dead.

People have been saying more or less the same thing for the past 2000+ years

[Celestia]

People have been saying more or less the same thing for the past 2000+ years
Pretty sure people who thought flying was impossible didn't expect to be exploring space.

[Bohandas]

No but it sounds like something out of a messianic or apocalyptic prophecy. IIRC site rules forbid me from giving specific examples.

[Inevitability]

By the end of this century, we will either be exploring the stars or dead.

I'm not sure. Theoretically it *may* be possible (assuming we can find a way to travel FTL), but in practice I don't think there'll be enough public support for such a thing. Research is expensive, and economically traveling to another star isn't that interesting.

Besides, if AI keeps advancing like it's right now, I doubt humans will be the ones doing the galaxy-exploring. Let's face it: robots are much better suited for such things.

[PapaMojo]

Let's assume that we do live and that A.I. does not get advanced enough to do our jobs for us or connect our minds to the internet, as that is what that seems to happen in d20 future after reading a chunk of it.

[Elkad]

I'm not sure. Theoretically it *may* be possible (assuming we can find a way to travel FTL), but in practice I don't think there'll be enough public support for such a thing. Research is expensive, and economically traveling to another star isn't that interesting.

Besides, if AI keeps advancing like it's right now, I doubt humans will be the ones doing the galaxy-exploring. Let's face it: robots are much better suited for such things.

Wait, what? I'd give up everything I have to be dumped on some distant vaguely life-supporting planet with whatever I could carry in a wheelbarrow.
Even with a few centuries in cold sleep, never to return or even contact Earth again, and a fair chance of death.
I don't think I'm that rare a segment of the population.

Robots? I can take a VR tour of Rome from my own couch, but I still want to go stomp around it myself, nevermind the Moon, Mars, Barsoom, Mote Prime, Avalon, Alderaan, Ireta, and a thousand other worlds.

[Inevitability]

Wait, what? I'd give up everything I have to be dumped on some distant vaguely life-supporting planet with whatever I could carry in a wheelbarrow.
Even with a few centuries in cold sleep, never to return or even contact Earth again, and a fair chance of death.
I don't think I'm that rare a segment of the population.

Robots? I can take a VR tour of Rome from my own couch, but I still want to go stomp around it myself, nevermind the Moon, Mars, Barsoom, Mote Prime, Avalon, Alderaan, Ireta, and a thousand other worlds.

Let's take a look at Mars One to see what I'm trying to make clear. There's plenty of people willing to undertake such a mission, but when it comes to financing very few people are willing to throw tens of millions of dollars at something that's unlikely to ever return much money.

Investing in something that's likely to fail, won't return much, and if it does will only start paying off centuries from now goes against nearly any economic law.


And as for the robots thing; it's simply cheaper, safer, and more efficient to send a specialized AI rather than a human. Computers don't need food, air, water, waste disposal, pressurized cabins and protection from toxins, can survive radiation levels in excess of what we can handle, don't get lonely or bored and most of all will probably be smarter and more adaptable than humans as technology advances.

[PapaMojo]

GODDAMMIT! I SPENT HALF AN HOUR WIRITN A DAMM REPLY BUT IT WAS DELETED! Ok! screw it! Just read page 7 to eight here, or stuff around the book, like the "evolution of___ sections in some of the chapters like cybernetics and robotics:
http://www.limey.net/~magnum/DL/D20%20Modern/D20%20Future.pdf
Basically, I gave a summary of some of the advancements throughout the ages. The things are, it presents multiple things that I don't think were meant to be used together, like jump gates and faster than light travel. also, something may not be possible in the real world, like interdimensional travel and time travel. So the estimates really depend on what you use and what you don't in your campaigns, but I made a very rough estimate that we'd get to PL 6 in 100-200 years, it would take us at least 500 years to get to PL 7, and it would take us at least 1000 years to get to PL 8. No maximum years for 7 or 8 because that is when it throws inter-dimensional, time, and interstellar travel all at once (some in just its infancy but still) which would make any estimate have a crapton of years from its min to its max.

[Dekion]

PapaMojo, I tend to agree with your assessment on progress based on how things feel. PL6 is on the horizon, but only the first step, realization of actual fusion power, and that is likely 30 or so years down the road for the very basic sustained reactions that will produce more power than they consume. This means that it will take roughly 50+ years to get to the point where we are solidly in PL6 and an estimate of 500 years to PL7 is not completely unreasonable.

However, I would caution you to look at the progress over the past 1600 years. As we progress we tend to think in ways we haven't thought before, and this could serve to invert the scale to result in less time to progress rather than more. Based on earlier progress levels, most historians agree that PL2 began in 476 AD (or CE if you prefer,) we achieved PL3 in roughly 1500 AD, and then PL4 was in about 1800 AD, followed by PL5 in about 1950 AD. The number of years to progress seems to be diminishing greatly, and if we achieve the cusp of PL6, by 2050 AD, then this continues to hold true. So, with that in mind, it's possible that we could be on the edge of PL7 in less than 100 years.

[PapaMojo]

PapaMojo, I tend to agree with your assessment on progress based on how things feel. PL6 is on the horizon, but only the first step, realization of actual fusion power, and that is likely 30 or so years down the road for the very basic sustained reactions that will produce more power than they consume. This means that it will take roughly 50+ years to get to the point where we are solidly in PL6 and an estimate of 500 years to PL7 is not completely unreasonable.

However, I would caution you to look at the progress over the past 1600 years. As we progress we tend to think in ways we haven't thought before, and this could serve to invert the scale to result in less time to progress rather than more. Based on earlier progress levels, most historians agree that PL2 began in 476 AD (or CE if you prefer,) we achieved PL3 in roughly 1500 AD, and then PL4 was in about 1800 AD, followed by PL5 in about 1950 AD. The number of years to progress seems to be diminishing greatly, and if we achieve the cusp of PL6, by 2050 AD, then this continues to hold true. So, with that in mind, it's possible that we could be on the edge of PL7 in less than 100 years.

I did not hitnk of that, you are absolutely correct. The rate of technological advancement is increase ncredibly quickly. Hmmm, some things are still pretty out there though, like time and interdimensional travel. Still, I suppose it is certainly possible we'll get to PL 8 in less than a thousand. Maybe 700-1000?

[Jay R]

By the end of this century, we will either be exploring the stars or dead.

Oh, I'm nowhere near that pessimistic about the future. The worst case scenario is probably no worse than a return to the stone age.

[Inevitability]

Oh, I'm nowhere near that pessimistic about the future. The worst case scenario is probably no worse than a return to the stone age.

Well there are a few known scenarios that could result in our unavoidable death (gamma ray bursts and false vacuum collapse, for example), so technically the worst-case scenario is our death.

The fact that these methods usually involve the death of every other being in our solar system as well should be enough indication that your remark was very close.

[Dekion]

I did not hitnk of that, you are absolutely correct. The rate of technological advancement is increase ncredibly quickly. Hmmm, some things are still pretty out there though, like time and interdimensional travel. Still, I suppose it is certainly possible we'll get to PL 8 in less than a thousand. Maybe 700-1000?

I feel that following PL7, PL8 is the extreme of what we could do given our basic understanding of how we have progressed and PL9 is what we wish we could do, but have no true concept as to how as of yet. While PL7 is possible, and PL8 is probable, I feel that PL9 is improbable unless something within prior progress levels makes it probable or possible. Setting a span of 700 to 1000 years years from now for PL8 is reasonable, but it is likely that we will start to see things from that described progress level in less than 200 years while other advancements may take several centuries more.

Of course, some discovery could launch us forward at an unexpected rate, and there is always the possibility that we will destroy ourselves through any number of means prior to that, or even take a huge step back due to environmental or other disasters caused by our careless advancement. That's the huge benefit of science fiction and fantasy, you can decide what happens.

[Goaty14]

Getting a bonus feat was our first evolutionary progression.