Puzzled Belkar and the Oracle's prophecy [Archive]

hamishspence

2017-10-21, 01:22 PM

That was seven weeks, not five, assuming you're talking about strip #666.

We know from All In The Family:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0842.html

that around two weeks have lapsed since Familicide, which took place the same day as 666. Hence 5 weeks.

A very few days have lapsed between All In The Family and now. Hence, "uncertain number of days".

Mind you - Durkon did say "at least a fortnight".

Around strip 726, The Giant stated that 2 weeks had gone by.

http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showsinglepost.php?p=8569129&postcount=19

Around strip 822, The Giant stated that 4 more days had gone by:

http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?226499-Belkar-s-Death&p=12414296&highlight=days#post12414296

So, we only need to know how much time has passed between 822 (when the Order are setting off for the pyramid) and now.

Vaarsuvius was on the Plane of Ranch Dressing for two days, and was sent there the same day the Order set off, and returned early in the morning (before sunrise) on The Day They Went To The Pyramid - so, 4 days, +2 for V, +1 for Pyramid, = 1 whole week - which suggests 3 weeks total time lapse between Familicide and the very end of Book 5.

Quebbster

2017-10-21, 02:35 PM

We know from All In The Family:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0842.html

that around two weeks have lapsed since Familicide, which took place the same day as 666. Hence 5 weeks.

A very few days have lapsed between All In The Family and now. Hence, "uncertain number of days".

Mind you - Durkon did say "at least a fortnight".

Around strip 726, The Giant stated that 2 weeks had gone by.

http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showsinglepost.php?p=8569129&postcount=19

Around strip 822, The Giant stated that 4 more days had gone by:

http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?226499-Belkar-s-Death&p=12414296&highlight=days#post12414296

So, we only need to know how much time has passed between 822 (when the Order are setting off for the pyramid) and now.

Vaarsuvius was on the Plane of Ranch Dressing for two days, and was sent there the same day the Order set off, and returned early in the morning (before sunrise) on The Day They Went To The Pyramid - so, 4 days, +2 for V, +1 for Pyramid, = 1 whole week - which suggests 3 weeks total time lapse between Familicide and the very end of Book 5.

Belkar also implies it has been less than a fortnight (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1077.html) since the end of book five, so we're probably somewhere in week 5 at the moment.

hamishspence

2017-10-21, 03:21 PM

Belkar also implies it has been less than a fortnight (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1077.html) since the end of book five, so we're probably somewhere in week 5 at the moment.

Might even be less.

We know that the Godsmoot was called with 3 days notice, and took place on the Winter Solstice, at least (and that it took at least 1 day to get from the Godsmoot to Firmament).

However, we don't know how much time lapsed between the destruction of Girard's Gate, and the gods calling the Godsmoot.

If they called it almost immediately, then as little as 4 full days could have lapsed between Book 5 and now - 1 day from the Empire of Blood to where Thor hit the ship, 1 day from there to Tinkertown (where Wrecan and Veldrina say that they have to be at the Godsmoot tomorrow), leaving Tinkertown and arriving at the Godsmoot the next day, and 1 day from the Godsmoot to Firmament.

If the Southern Calendar New Year follows the same principles as the Chinese, Korean and Vietnamese New Year (as the theme for Azure City might suggest) - then it will take place on the second new moon after the Winter Solstice. That could be as little as just under 5 weeks, if it's a new moon now.

However, since it was a full moon about 3 days ago, in-universe:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0963.html

that does suggest that there's a few more days to go before the new moon - maybe as much as two weeks. Which would make it almost 6 weeks to the Chinese New Year - and thus, not compatible with the fact that more than 3 of Belkar's 7 weeks have already gone by.

Assuming of course that the OOTS lunar cycle is roughly the same as ours - 29 days full moon to full moon, or new moon to new moon.

EDIT- After looking it up - according to Durkula in 948, 3 days pass between the end of book 5 and the start of book 6:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0948.html

which means that, as of now, 6 days have passed - 3 days to Thor attack, 1 day to Tinkertown, 1 day to Godsmoot, 1 day to Firmament. So, we are at 4 weeks indeed, or very slightly under, and Belkar has (at most) 3 weeks left to go.

factotum

2017-10-21, 04:32 PM

If the Southern Calendar New Year follows the same principles as the Chinese, Korean and Vietnamese New Year (as the theme for Azure City might suggest)

On the other hand, if it follows the UK/US system, it could be as little as just over a week until New Year--the Winter Solstice is December 21st usually, which is just a week and a half from the new year.

hamishspence

2017-10-21, 04:43 PM

On the other hand, if it follows the UK/US system, it could be as little as just over a week until New Year--the Winter Solstice is December 21st usually, which is just a week and a half from the new year.

Given that just over 3 weeks are left between the Winter Solstice and "7 weeks from Roy's strip 666 comment" that would suggest that in the OOTS-verse, the Winter Solstice is a little over 3 weeks from the "Southern New Year" - December 10th or 9th or so, rather than December 21st.

One thing rather odd - they're in the far north - Lien and O-Chul are close to the pole, it's midwinter - and yet, there's still a day and night cycle, and the sky is still pale grey where Lien and O-Chul are. Perhaps the axial tilt is much less, and the seasons much less significant?

Werbaer

2017-10-21, 04:51 PM

Five weeks as of an uncertain number of days ago.
No more specific estimate has been given since Roy gave it at the end of Book 4.
We can't even be sure that Roy's number is correct.
Roy is used the the northern calendar. He might have missed that the oracle uses the southern calendar, where new year is "a few months" (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0302.html) later.

Peelee

2017-10-21, 04:56 PM

Given that just over 3 weeks are left between the Winter Solstice and "7 weeks from Roy's strip 666 comment" that would suggest that in the OOTS-verse, the Winter Solstice is a little over 3 weeks from the "Southern New Year" - December 10th or 9th or so, rather than December 21st.

One thing rather odd - they're in the far north - Lien and O-Chul are close to the pole, it's midwinter - and yet, there's still a day and night cycle, and the sky is still pale grey where Lien and O-Chul are. Perhaps the axial tilt is much less, and the seasons much less significant?

#flatootsearththeory

hamishspence

2017-10-21, 05:06 PM

We can't even be sure that Roy's number is correct.
Roy is used the the northern calendar. He might have missed that the oracle uses the southern calendar, where new year is "a few months" (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0302.html) later.

Going by the Giant's post here:

http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showsinglepost.php?p=8569129&postcount=19

Roy hasn't missed it.

It would appear that the Northern Calendar ends before the winter solstice.

We see here:

that the Sun is still close to the horizon, when Lien and O-Chul are only a few miles away from the pole.

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1036.html

Whereas on Earth, in midwinter, near the pole, we have "astronomical polar night" within 5 degrees of the pole - 300 miles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_night

Thus, it does suggest an extremely shallow axial tilt, and very mild seasons (if the planet is roughly comparable to Earth in size and shape).

For a planet with extremely shallow axial tilt, for people near the pole, the sun would remain close to the horizon when below it, at night, and the nights would be grey rather than black - which is exactly what we are seeing, at Firmament.

Honest Tiefling

2017-10-21, 07:23 PM

Let him eat cake. The oracle said he should savor his next birthday cake. When I see him eat cake the end is near.

Do remember that the Oracle is fully willing to be a jerk to mouth-breathing stinky monkeys, so that the prophecy might not be accurate. Belkar is a foodie of sorts, so it could just be a really nice cake made for him. Through given that Azure city has collapsed and the elves are fighting the goblins, the sugar trade could just be disrupted, making cakes and vanilla a luxury in a time of war.

Belkar also loaned the ring of Jumping to Roy, perhaps fulfilling the prophecy that way. Had Roy selected the item because Belkar wasn't there to grab it when the loot was dived up, he probably would have lend it or given it to someone without a high ACP for the battle. This would mean he was indirectly responsible for Roy's death, through it didn't really stick.

denthor

2017-10-21, 09:19 PM

Do remember that the Oracle is fully willing to be a jerk to mouth-breathing stinky monkeys, so that the prophecy might not be accurate. Belkar is a foodie of sorts, so it could just be a really nice cake made for him. Through given that Azure city has collapsed and the elves are fighting the goblins, the sugar trade could just be disrupted, making cakes and vanilla a luxury in a time of war.

Belkar also loaned the ring of Jumping to Roy, perhaps fulfilling the prophecy that way. Had Roy selected the item because Belkar wasn't there to grab it when the loot was dived up, he probably would have lend it or given it to someone without a high ACP for the battle. This would mean he was indirectly responsible for Roy's death, through it didn't really stick.

The oracle would send him a cake as an insult for dull daggers.

Goosefarble

2017-10-22, 05:58 PM

Not the Oracle's fault they don't take his advice.

Wait isn't the oracle a woman? :smallconfused:

Domino Quartz

2017-10-22, 06:22 PM

Wait isn't the oracle a woman? :smallconfused:

No, he isn't.

Kish

2017-10-22, 06:28 PM

According to my memory, he's an elf.

Fyraltari

2017-10-22, 06:48 PM

According to my memory, he's an elf.

Nonsense, she's a blind sixteenthling.

alwaysbebatman

2017-10-22, 07:16 PM

I'm pretty sure that he's Batman. Also.

Bob_McSurly

2017-10-22, 09:01 PM

No, you're all wrong. Xi's a chaotic good, gender-fluid Tibit, with 12 levels of warlock (Flumph patron), and an adorable ponytail.

Fyraltari

2017-10-23, 04:53 AM

What is "Xi" ?

Quebbster

2017-10-23, 05:00 AM

What is "Xi" ?

Eleven in Roman numerals.

Ruck

2017-10-23, 07:09 AM

I recall the Oracle being a pretty lady who thinks space-traveling science detectives who have visions are really cool.

Kish

2017-10-23, 07:13 AM

Eleven in Roman numerals.
Clearly not; Roman numerals didn't have small letters.

D.One

2017-10-23, 07:14 AM

Eleven in Roman numerals.

So, there's not one, but eleven oracles... that explains a lot...

Quebbster

2017-10-23, 07:30 AM

Clearly not; Roman numerals didn't have small letters.

You'd be surprised how Little the people who actually use Roman numerals these Days (yes, they do exist) cares about minor details like that.

D.One

2017-10-23, 07:35 AM

You'd be surprised how Little the people who actually use Roman numerals these Days (yes, they do exist) cares about minor details like that.

I'd say it's a minuscule part of the users...

Bob_McSurly

2017-10-23, 10:48 AM

So, there's not one, but eleven oracles... that explains a lot...

I'm pretty sure that a certain Belkar aficionado will try to use this as proof that Belkar isn't really going to die :)

littlebum2002

2017-10-23, 12:59 PM

There's a thread dedicated to this, but it got necroed

http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?361715-Countdown-to-Belkar-s-Death-Scene

As of #992, Belkar had ~3 weeks to live.

Yanisa

2017-10-24, 08:37 AM

There's a thread dedicated to this, but it got necroed

http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?361715-Countdown-to-Belkar-s-Death-Scene

As of #992, Belkar had ~3 weeks to live.

And #922 was at the start of the Godsmoot. Since then only 1 day has past, so there isn't a lot to update on said list. :smalltongue:

Ornithologist

2017-10-24, 02:34 PM

Lucky for me,

I have been keeping this in my sig for this exact situation.

Synesthesy

2017-10-26, 03:53 PM

I don't think that Belkie will die at all, so....

Well, I have two more question that are tied to this thread (and the "death" of Belkar that may happen or not).

First, I don't think that he's changing his alligment so far, but surely from the first strips to now he gained some wisdom, actually a lot of that. Do you think that Belkar will ever cast a spell as a Ranger? We know that he can, as he casted some healing on Elan in the first strips under the effect of "Owl's Wisdom". Maybe he will gain enough of it to cast something usefull and unexpected to (help) defeat Greg?

Second, do you think that we'll se Belkar rage, as he had at least 1 level of barbarian? Maybe against Greg? We know that when Thog used his rage, he was truly angry. I think that Greg can make Belkar feel enough angry to do this...

Peelee

2017-10-26, 04:47 PM

I don't think that Belkie will die at all, so....

So you think the Oracle lied?

factotum

2017-10-27, 02:20 AM

So you think the Oracle lied?

Has to be said, it's unusual for someone to say Belkar isn't going to die without at least trying to attempt to counteract the multiple Oracle prophecies that he's going to do just that...

Synesthesy

2017-10-27, 04:33 AM

So you think the Oracle lied?

No, I think he simply was wrong. I don't trust him enough to believe he lied.

Has to be said, it's unusual for someone to say Belkar isn't going to die without at least trying to attempt to counteract the multiple Oracle prophecies that he's going to do just that...

I was trying to speak about some other things related to the end of Belkar's story :P

I hope that there will be a Belkar arc before the end... Now we know the background of Roy (his family, his father, his ancestor...), Haley (her father, the thieves' guild, the city where she was raised...), V (hir family, hir children, hir master, ...), Durkon (his homeland, his culture, his parents...), Elan (his father and the backstory of Nale); but we don't know anything about Belkar's past, the only thing we know is that he's shorter then the average halfling. And that he hates kobolds. Why does he hate them?

Domino Quartz

2017-10-27, 05:50 AM

No, I think he simply was wrong. I don't trust him enough to believe he lied.

The Oracle doesn't just make random predictions - he gets his knowledge of the future from Tiamat. He doesn't just make stuff up.

hamishspence

2017-10-27, 05:54 AM

And even when he's not speaking green text, his predictions are consistently accurate. Like when he mentions "a pair of family reunions" (Elan with Nale, Roy with Julia).

Peelee

2017-10-27, 07:17 AM

Has to be said, it's unusual for someone to say Belkar isn't going to die without at least trying to attempt to counteract the multiple Oracle prophecies that he's going to do just that...
Oh, I know, bit it's good to know for sure.

No, I think he simply was wrong. I don't trust him enough to believe he lied.

You think several prophecies from an actual prophet who has never been wrong before are wrong, without any indication in the story that he will be wrong? Is this based on anything other than wishful thinking?

Quartz

2017-10-27, 09:40 AM

And #922 was at the start of the Godsmoot. Since then only 1 day has past,

How do we know that?

Sir_Norbert

2017-10-27, 11:07 AM

The Oracle doesn't just make random predictions - he gets his knowledge of the future from Tiamat. He doesn't just make stuff up.

And it's possible for Tiamat to be wrong, too. Having a prophecy is not the same as having knowledge.

That said, I'm in the camp that believes Belkar will die, because most of the reasons I can think of why an author would introduce a prophecy at all involve it coming true later in the story. It's usually done to give readers a little hint about what will happen, and then surprise them about how it will happen. The resolution "actually, Tiamat was simply wrong" is much harder to do in a satisfying way, and therefore seems much less likely to be our author's intention.

We'll just have to see, though.

Yanisa

2017-10-27, 11:11 AM

How do we know that?

First off, small correction, I meant 992, not 922. Which is logically because the source post end at 992...

Up until 1090ish only one day has past, which is what I was thinking off. We had a sneaky day pass which I kinda missed the first time, but on rereading yeah two days have past. To recap some highlights:
#992 Party debarks at the Godsmoot
#1027 Party leaves the Godsmoot. A lot has happened, but not a single day has past.
#1031-1042 is a break to Team evil. Also an timeskip for our group, but they stay on the same day, except it's evening now.
#1044 Bandana says "I'm going to turn in. See you two in the morning."
#1049 is that new day. You can see the sky color difference between #1044&#1049
#1081-1089 is a break to Team Hell. Also an timeskip for our group, but they stay on the same day, except it's evening now. (Déjà vu)
#1094 Minrah asks "Why are you skulking after midnight?" Which means another day has past. When exact I don't know. Might even be after the timeskip at #1090.

And to recap the recap:
Day 25 - Strip 992 Party debarks at the Godsmoot. From the post here. (http://www.giantitp.com/forums/showthread.php?361715-Countdown-to-Belkar-s-Death-Scene)
Day 26 - Strip 1049 Party arrives at the mountain pass. The sky is bright again, in contrast to the last time we saw them, strip 1044.
Day 27 - Strip 1090/1094 Party arrives the dwarf temple(?). Because they are skulking after midnight that proves a day has past

hamishspence

2017-10-27, 11:18 AM

How do we know that?

Roy says that it'll be "at least a day" to get to Firmament

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1030.html

Evening that same day:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1044.html

Morning the next day:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1049.html

They have an encounter with giants

They prepare to take a rest, since they expect to be at Firmament that night:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1080.html

Hel makes it clear that they'll be there before midnight of that same day:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1084.html

So basically you're looking at a day and a half, or so - leaving Godsmoot midday (plus or minus a few hours) of Godsmoot Day, 24 hours later they've had their giant encounter, 12 hours later it's nearly midnight, and they're arriving at Firmament to fight the vampires.

If Minrah says it's right after midnight though - Hel's estimate may be a few minutes off.

Quartz

2017-10-27, 02:07 PM

Excellent summations, thank you.

Sencara

2017-10-27, 07:03 PM

So out of all this... Has anyone figured out when Belkar's birthday is? Just wondering is all.

Kish

2017-10-27, 08:06 PM

No. Probably not even Rich.

martianmister

2017-10-28, 07:42 AM

So out of all this... Has anyone figured out when Belkar's birthday is? Just wondering is all.

It's November 11. Rich told me.

Synesthesy

2017-10-28, 08:45 AM

You think several prophecies from an actual prophet who has never been wrong before are wrong, without any indication in the story that he will be wrong? Is this based on anything other than wishful thinking?

Yes I think that the oracle could be wrong, both for wishful thinking and for actual reasons (and meta reasons, too).

But I don't try to convince anyone. Everyone here is thinking about how the story will end, and everyone have his own version. I think that the Giant will surprise us, but I have a lot of ideas about how he'll do. As everyone here.

My first reason is that I would find Belkar's death, even more after the prophecy, a very ordinary ending. There is an evil character, he'll need to evolve to survive, but some one said he'll die so... he die. I don't think the Giant will be that banal. The more you people write here, the more I think that the real surprise will be Belkar surviving.

And you say that the oracle "has never been wrong". Did he? Some of his prophecy were a little "stretched"... And the Belkar question was a self-fulfilling prophecy, as Belkar killed the oracle because of what the oracle told him: if he was more gentle, Belkar would not have killed him. Right, the Oracle wanted to be killed to activate the mark of justice, knowing that he'll be resurrected soon, but it's not the point.
So, I think that oracle's prophecy are often true, but not always: because there is free will and people can change their destiny, as Belkar is already doing. Or because they are written in a way that they seem to mean a thing and instead they mean another one, like Durkon's prophecy (after death is not the same thing as after becaming undead).

And last, I don't think that Elan would think that an ending where some order member die as a "happy ending", even if it's Belkar death; and this time there won't be a happy wedding and family reunion and dinosaur ride after Belkar's death...

PS: actually, the Oracle was wrong once. He thought that Ghost Roy would forget everything after being banished, and he didn't. It's a little mistake, but still he doesn't know everything.

Kish

2017-10-28, 09:31 AM

My first reason is that I would find Belkar's death, even more after the prophecy, a very ordinary ending. There is an evil character, he'll need to evolve to survive, but some one said he'll die so... he die. I don't think the Giant will be that banal. The more you people write here, the more I think that the real surprise will be Belkar surviving.

Way too many people are insisting on that for it to be a surprise.

And the Belkar question was a self-fulfilling prophecy, as Belkar killed the oracle because of what the oracle told him: if he was more gentle, Belkar would not have killed him.

Huge assumption there.

Peelee

2017-10-28, 10:12 AM

Yes I think that the oracle could be wrong, both for wishful thinking and for actual reasons (and meta reasons, too).

But I don't try to convince anyone. Everyone here is thinking about how the story will end, and everyone have his own version. I think that the Giant will surprise us, but I have a lot of ideas about how he'll do. As everyone here.

My first reason is that I would find Belkar's death, even more after the prophecy, a very ordinary ending. There is an evil character, he'll need to evolve to survive, but some one said he'll die so... he die. I don't think the Giant will be that banal. The more you people write here, the more I think that the real surprise will be Belkar surviving.

And you say that the oracle "has never been wrong". Did he? Some of his prophecy were a little "stretched"... And the Belkar question was a self-fulfilling prophecy, as Belkar killed the oracle because of what the oracle told him: if he was more gentle, Belkar would not have killed him. Right, the Oracle wanted to be killed to activate the mark of justice, knowing that he'll be resurrected soon, but it's not the point.
So, I think that oracle's prophecy are often true, but not always: because there is free will and people can change their destiny, as Belkar is already doing. Or because they are written in a way that they seem to mean a thing and instead they mean another one, like Durkon's prophecy (after death is not the same thing as after becaming undead).

And last, I don't think that Elan would think that an ending where some order member die as a "happy ending", even if it's Belkar death; and this time there won't be a happy wedding and family reunion and dinosaur ride after Belkar's death...

PS: actually, the Oracle was wrong once. He thought that Ghost Roy would forget everything after being banished, and he didn't. It's a little mistake, but still he doesn't know everything.

Belkar wanted a refund for his prophecy. The Oracle was not going to give him one, because the prophecy was going to come true. If the prophecy wasn't going to come true, the Oracle wouldn't have prophesied it. Belkar would have killed the Oracle regardless.

Also, the Oracle said there would be a happy ending, at least for Elan. The "at least for you" part strongly implies that there will be an unhappy ending for someone.

Lastly, yes, you're absolutely correct. The Oracle has been wrong before, in thinking Roy wouldn't remember their chat. Let me rephrase: the Oracle has never yet been wrong in his prophecies, whether on or off the record.

Kish

2017-10-28, 10:18 AM

What Elan asked is, "Will this story have a happy ending?" If the definition of "a story with a happy ending" is "none of the six biggest-role non-antagonist characters dies," I guess the vast, vast majority of stories are tragedies.

I don't think the Oracle could have gotten out of being stabbed by giving Belkar the refund, either. He was as dead as Solt Lorkyurg from the second Belkar came back into the Sunken Valley without Roy there to restrain him.

I think it's entirely possible the Oracle meant Roy to remember what he said. Of course, that only changes "the Oracle was wrong" to "the Oracle was lying," still allowing plenty of loopholes for Belkar to survive with, should someone be looking for them and willing to disregard the prophecy.

Manga Shoggoth

2017-10-28, 01:08 PM

Since the "oracle is mistaken/lying/inaccurate" arguement has come up, I thought it might be worth reposting this table that covers the Oracular predictions made for a previous discussion. Amazingly, I don't think it needs updating (apart from the formatting commands...).

For my own edification, I did a little digging (anything to avoid the hell that is my daughter tidying her room...)

The Oracle makes statements about the future, and also answers straight questions as well. Here are all the Oracular statements that I cound find, on the record or not. (Spoilered for length, answers "on the record" are bolded):

IssueItemStatus

#329Offscreen: The Oracle predicted that one supplcant would die of a Heart Attack. Was sued by his family as a result and instituted the Test of the Heart as a precautionFulfilled

#329Belkar shouldn't bother funding his IRA (Oracle also explains why the memory charm is there)Pending

#330Where is Xykon/In his throne roomValid, albiet useless

#330Looking forward to the book publishing to understand HaleyValid, and slightly more useful

#330Two of you are running late for family reunionsFulfilled

#330Not accepting cheques as he has seen their futuresPending

#331How will I be returning to my homeland/PosthumouslyPending: Starting to be fulfilled after becoming a vampire

#331How will I achieve Ultimate Arcane Power/Right words to right person at the right time for the wrong reasonsDeal with the IIFC

#331(Presumably) How will I get my speech back/When the gift horse comes calling, don't look it in the mouthCulmination of date with Not-Elan

#331Will this story have a happy ending/Yes, for you at leastPending.

#331Do I get to cause the death of any of the following.../YesOracle killed by Belkar; other (possibly spurious) interpretations offered.

#331(Complex question to identify the next gate Xykon is aiming for/Girard's Gate (after trying to warn Roy that his question had a flaw in it)Fulfilled: Xykon went to Azure city first, then went to Giriad's gate.

#331Caw caw caw caw, caw caw caw/Try ginko bilboaUnclear as we don't know the exact question.

#568Offscreen, the Oracle creates the village of Lickling as he knew he was going to be stabbed.Fulfilled

#571Offscreen, the Oracle arranges for a Raise Dead.Fulfilled

#571The Oracle arranges for a Ressurection on 26-Mar-1187 15:10.Pending

#572Several items about Belkar's end, including one "On the Record" so it would get through the memory charm (Unnecessarly, as it turns out).Pending

#572Important client flying inFulfilled (Black Dragon)

#628Offscreen, the Oracle provides V's name to the Black DragonCorrect

SOD page 23The "Ghost Dad" quip will be funnier laterUnclear, depends on your sense of humour

SOD page 23Who killed my master/XykonCorrect

SOD page 23The Oracle has a date with a hot chick and will be getting to second base.Unknown, and I really don't want to know...

So, we have:

13items Fullfilled or Correct

6Items Pending

3Items of unknown provinance

0Items known to be false

We have no evidence that the Oracle has lied about the future at any time, on or off the record. That's not to say he can't, just that he hasn't. The closest to this we have are:

The alternate interpretations given for Belkar's answer, and his question was wide open to interpretation.
The "The Oracle is Out" sign up when Xykon paid a call.
NEW: In #572, thinking that Ghost!Roy need an "on the record" prophecy to remember the comment about Belkar's death. (Being mistaken is not lying, and in this case he is not mistaken about prophecy, simply the effects of the memory charm)

Perhaps I should get out more often...

We have no evidence that the Oracle is lying about the future, and very little evidence that the Oracle has lied on screen (and most of that evidence is debatable).

On the other hand, every single statement about the future (on the record or not) is either fulfilled, yet to be fulfilled or of unknown provenance. Not one statement about the future has been proven false.

Grey_Wolf_c

2017-10-28, 02:03 PM

Caw caw caw caw, caw caw caw/Try ginko bibola

Typo: that'd be bilboa, not "bibola"

GW

Manga Shoggoth

2017-10-28, 02:19 PM

Typo: that'd be bilboa, not "bibola"
GW

Thank you - correction made. My spelling does tend to be a little rocky...

hroþila

2017-10-28, 02:40 PM

I think the interpretation of the "Ghost Dad" quip is wrong here: the Oracle didn't look into the future to see whether the joke would be funny, but to see that Eugene would indeed die and appear in the comic as a ghost. 100% correct.

alwaysbebatman

2017-10-28, 02:55 PM

Since possibly-misleading wording tends to be relevant to prophecy in general, and to the Oracle's prophecies specifically, I think an accounting is in order of the exact words of the numerous ways that the Oracle implied that Belkar's death was impending.

#329: "...the halfling shouldn't bother funding his IRA..."
#329: "...he should savor his next birthday cake..."
#572: "...your pal isn't long for this world..."
#572: (On the record) "Belkar will draw his last breath-- ever-- before the end of the year."

The implication of all those predictions is the same: Belkar's death. But I suspect that Mr. Burlew was challenging himself by hemming himself in with words that have to be true, and yet have a plot twist that still surprises the audience.

ETA: Also, I find it suspicious that the Oracle found four different ways to imply Belkar's death, but never came out and said it. There's probably a reason for that. Note: the Oracle seriously dislikes Roy, Durkon, and especially Belkar.

IF I'm right, what circumstance OTHER than death could fulfill the literal words of all four prophecies?

I'd say that the two from #329 can be dismissed outright. Maybe the OOTS-world stock market is going to crash, maybe his next birthday cake will be especially delicious.

The exact words of the two from #572 are far more constraining. Belkar will leave this world, and permanently stop breathing before the end of the year.

What are some circumstances that literally fulfill this? One would be a nice permanent trip to the Outer Planes, maybe somewhere in the range between Tartarus and Gladsheim-- he wouldn't need to breathe there. Oh, wait. That IS death.

Other possibilities? It could be argued that the place where the original soul of a vampire is trapped is another plane of existence, not "this world." And vampires do not (generally) breathe. Cons to this theory: it's been argued that this would be too much a retread of the Durkon* storyline. And it would involve seeing Belkar's early life, which the author has said he doesn't want to delve into because it may evoke sympathy for a character he does not intend to be sympathetic.

Other possibilities? A trip to the astral plane maybe? One word --"ever"-- constrains any such off-world trip to one from which he either never comes back, or comes back in a form that doesn't breathe...

Thoughts?

Peelee

2017-10-28, 03:24 PM

What are some circumstances that literally fulfill this?

No good ones have come up over the years. The most common is vampirization, which we now know would still kill Belkar while having someone else pilot his body. Ideas about the astral plane or other things don't take into account that he would still age, so far as the birthday cake line goes. Notwithstanding that it's a bit silly that the Oracle would take joy in pointing out the Belkar's untimely demise if, in fact, he doesn't. Especially since Belkar never remembers it or has any big reaction to it.

alwaysbebatman

2017-10-28, 04:12 PM

Certainly, Vampirization is a form of "death" in the sense of "those various weird states of being that D&D denizens for some reason lump together and call 'death'." It is not becoming "Mister-Not-Appearing-in-this-Book." It's not plot-death, any more than Roy's was or Durkon's is (yet.)

There are definitely plenty of other explanations for the birthday cake and IRA lines.

Notwithstanding that it's a bit silly that the Oracle would take joy in pointing out the Belkar's untimely demise if, in fact, he doesn't. Especially since Belkar never remembers it or has any big reaction to it.

I'm sorry, what exactly are you getting at here?

Fyraltari

2017-10-28, 04:32 PM

Wait, has March the 26, 1187 gone by ? Because if it has not it means the Oracle has prophecized Hel's defeat since there would need to still be a world for him to be killed by that druid.

Synesthesy

2017-10-28, 05:25 PM

Wait, has March the 26, 1187 gone by ? Because if it has not it means the Oracle has prophecized Hel's defeat since there would need to still be a world for him to be killed by that druid.

And actually that would kill a lot of tension....

However, proving that someone has never been wrong doesn't mean that he'll always be right. Neither it proves that the Oracle can't lie to this monkey people he really doesn't like.

I'd like to add one thing:

For my own edification, I did a little digging (anything to avoid the hell that is my daughter tidying her room...)

The Oracle makes statements about the future, and also answers straight questions as well. Here are all the Oracular statements that I cound find, on the record or not. (Spoilered for length, answers "on the record" are bolded):

IssueItemStatus

#329Offscreen: The Oracle predicted that one supplcant would die of a Heart Attack. Was sued by his family as a result and instituted the Test of the Heart as a precautionFulfilled

#329Belkar shouldn't bother funding his IRA (Oracle also explains why the memory charm is there)Pending

#330Where is Xykon/In his throne roomValid, albiet useless

#330Looking forward to the book publishing to understand HaleyValid, and slightly more useful

#330Two of you are running late for family reunionsFulfilled

#330Not accepting cheques as he has seen their futuresPending

#331How will I be returning to my homeland/PosthumouslyPending: Starting to be fulfilled after becoming a vampire

#331How will I achieve Ultimate Arcane Power/Right words to right person at the right time for the wrong reasonsDeal with the IIFC

#331(Presumably) How will I get my speech back/When the gift horse comes calling, don't look it in the mouthCulmination of date with Not-Elan

#331Will this story have a happy ending/Yes, for you at leastPending.

#331Do I get to cause the death of any of the following.../YesOracle killed by Belkar; other (possibly spurious) interpretations offered.

#331(Complex question to identify the next gate Xykon is aiming for/Girard's Gate (after trying to warn Roy that his question had a flaw in it)Fulfilled: Xykon went to Azure city first, then went to Giriad's gate.

#331Caw caw caw caw, caw caw caw/Try ginko bilboaUnclear as we don't know the exact question.

#568Offscreen, the Oracle creates the village of Lickling as he knew he was going to be stabbed.Fulfilled

#571Offscreen, the Oracle arranges for a Raise Dead.Fulfilled

#571The Oracle arranges for a Ressurection on 26-Mar-1187 15:10.Pending

#572Several items about Belkar's end, including one "On the Record" so it would get through the memory charm (Unnecessarly, as it turns out).Pending

#572Important client flying inFulfilled (Black Dragon)

#628Offscreen, the Oracle provides V's name to the Black DragonCorrect

SOD page 23The "Ghost Dad" quip will be funnier laterUnclear, depends on your sense of humour

SOD page 23Who killed my master/XykonCorrect

SOD page 23The Oracle has a date with a hot chick and will be getting to second base.Unknown, and I really don't want to know...

if you read the prophecies that Manga Shoggoth listed, you'll notice one things: no prophecy, with 3 exceptions, are clear in their meaning. Because when the Oracle said that, things like "Right words to right person at the right time for the wrong reasons" or "When the gift horse comes calling, don't look it in the mouth" didn't mean anything. Only after the events they got their meaning.

The 3 exceptions are:

Roy's question about what gate Xykon will reach first
When Durkon will return to his homeland
Belkar's death

Well, from our beloved characters' point of view, the first two where wrong! Not because they actually were wrong, but because the common interpretation was wrong.

Roy did understand that the next gate Xykon would reach was Girard's, while it was actually Azure City's
Durkon did understand that he'll die somewhere, then buried in his homeland.

So, actually, the prophecy are right only if when written they are not understandable. If we (and the Order) understand them, the way we understand them is wrong. And if it was Roy's fault if his question was wrong, Durkon didn't think about undeads when he heard "Posthumously".

So I think that the same will happen to Belkar: I don't think he'll die, if we define "die" as "disappear from oots' world".

alwaysbebatman

2017-10-28, 06:31 PM

So, actually, the prophecy are right only if when written they are not understandable. If we (and the Order) understand them, the way we understand them is wrong. And if it was Roy's fault if his question was wrong, Durkon didn't think about undeads when he heard "Posthumously".

So I think that the same will happen to Belkar: I don't think he'll die, if we define "die" as "disappear from oots' world".

I don't agree with how you're wording that, but I think I agree with your overall point. It's not so much that the prophecies are either wrong or misunderstood, but that they are always useless, because they are either misunderstood or not understood at all until after the fact. And that's by design: if a prophecy were understandable, it would be avoidable. And a prophet can't have that.

But that doesn't really tell us much about the Oracle's prophecies about Belkar's death. I think they probably are misleading in some way, just because that's the Oracle's MO. But they don't need to be.

Because if they DO mean exactly what they seem to mean-- Belkar is going to die soon, his soul is going to an Outer Plane, and he will never be resurrected-- what is Roy supposed to do about it?

Even if those four prophecies aren't misleading or misinterpreted, they're still useless.

ETA: I take it back, the Oracle's prophecies are NOT always useless, especially to the protagonists. There is one exception, which we forgot because it's not in that matrix, because we don't know the wording of the question or answer. But Roy and Durkon's third question DID get them actually useful information. It should be noted that it takes a threat of violence to pull that from the kobold....

Kish

2017-10-28, 07:01 PM

we (and the Order)
Hands up, everyone who read the Oracle's reply to Roy and joined Roy in assuming Xykon would go to Girard's Gate before Soon's.

alwaysbebatman

2017-10-28, 07:42 PM

Or we could raise our hands if the misunderstood prophecy about Xykon going to Girard's Gate next misled us to think that the protagonists would go to the Western Desert and not be there to help defend Azure City?

*raises hand*

All of the Oracle's prophecies that the audience heard before the fact (not presented as backstory like the prophecy that led the Order to the Dungeon of Dorukan) have been misleading (or meaningless until after the fact) both to the Order and to the audience. Just not always in the same way.

hroþila

2017-10-28, 08:33 PM

I disagree. The Order eventually chose to go to Girard's gate rather than to Kraagor's gate because of what the Oracle told them, and the information turned out to be 100% correct. In fact, the knowledge that Xykon would arrive soon played a huge role in the Order's strategic choices at the pyramid.

alwaysbebatman

2017-10-28, 11:21 PM

Huh. Good point: although the answer "Girard's Gate" was misleading at that moment, it wasn't useless in the end.

In fact, if Roy hadn't made a mistake in how he phrased the question, the Order would have had to address the whole "where next?" problem all over again two books later.

Still: it was a misleading answer at that moment.

factotum

2017-10-29, 01:44 AM

Still: it was a misleading answer at that moment.

BUt the problem is, it was the only answer the Oracle could give in response to the asked question. If Roy had just asked "Which Gate will Xykon attack next?" then he would no doubt have got the answer Azure City, unless Xykon is in the habit of kicking regular garden gates to splinters for the lulz.

alwaysbebatman

2017-10-29, 01:50 AM

Sure, it was misleading for a different reason (from the character's point of view) than usual. Usually the Oracle is misleading because he can be (because the question has leeway for vagueness) or because he has to be (because otherwise the asker would take an action that would invalidate the prophecy.) In this case he was misleading because the question was TOO specific.

But from a meta perspective the prophecy was misleading for the same reason as usual-- accurate, useful prophecies can take away drama and agency.

Quebbster

2017-10-29, 04:56 AM

Hasn't Durkon returned to the Dwarven homelands now? His body definitely has, and his spirit is trapped inside...

Fyraltari

2017-10-29, 06:18 AM

if a prophecy were understandable, it would be avoidable. And a prophet can't have that.

That depends on your understanding of THE FUTURETM : whether it can be changed or not. Hurak's example and the fact that the Oracle only bothered to create the Test of Heart after one client died despite knowing it would happen points towards the "fixed timeline" case ie : "suck it up 'cause you aint got a snowball's chance in Tartarus to change a thing".

Because if they DO mean exactly what they seem to mean-- Belkar is going to die soon, his soul is going to an Outer Plane, and he will never be resurrected-- what is Roy supposed to do about it?
Refrain to kill him before their antics do get them killed ? (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0880.html)
Roy does not want to do anything about Belkar's prophecy because Belkar is a terrible person, and since Roy does not know about Belkar's character development he probably think that he needs killing once there are no longer worse people than him to be pointed towards.

Even if those four prophecies aren't misleading or misinterpreted, they're still useless.

ETA: I take it back, the Oracle's prophecies are NOT always useless, especially to the protagonists. There is one exception, which we forgot because it's not in that matrix, because we don't know the wording of the question or answer. But Roy and Durkon's third question DID get them actually useful information. It should be noted that it takes a threat of violence to pull that from the kobold....
Also they never complained about Durkon's own question back there whatever it was (My guess is "Is Ma doin okay ?").

Huh. Good point: although the answer "Girard's Gate" was misleading at that moment, it wasn't useless in the end.

In fact, if Roy hadn't made a mistake in how he phrased the question, the Order would have had to address the whole "where next?" problem all over again two books later.

Still: it was a misleading answer at that moment.
Actually they figured it out in in 332 (http://http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0332.html) so really the blame is more on the charm than on the Oracle. Moreover The Oracleis anything but misleading since he basically said : "Xykon will attack Soon's gate, fail and attack Girard's Gate."

Kish

2017-10-29, 07:55 AM

Hasn't Durkon returned to the Dwarven homelands now? His body definitely has, and his spirit is trapped inside...
Yes. He has returned to his beloved dwarven homelands posthumously. The prophecy the Oracle gave him has been fulfilled; there's no ambiguity, though some people apparently see ambiguity.

Also they never complained about Durkon's own question back there whatever it was (My guess is "Is Ma doin okay ?").

Also also, they only know Xykon killed Master Fyron because of a question Eugene asked the Oracle and got a straightforward answer to.

Manga Shoggoth

2017-10-29, 08:48 AM

However, proving that someone has never been wrong doesn't mean that he'll always be right. Neither it proves that the Oracle can't lie to this monkey people he really doesn't like.

The point is that until now he has not been wrong, and until now (with the wiggle room noted) he hasn't lied.

Yes, he might suddenly decide to start lying, yes he might be mistaken at some point, but his current track record says otherwise.

But:

On at least one occasion (Roy's convoluted question) he has gone out of his way to warn one of the monkey people he doesn't really like that the question being asked was not going to give the answer that he really wanted.
We also know that he has given (and will give) honest predictions even if it will end up with him being messily killed (Belkar and the Druid respectively - more monkey people, this time where he has a really strong motive to lie).
(At the very least I suspect that Tiamat might have something to say about him producing false prophecies in her name...)

So, on the basis of the information we are given it is strongly out of character for the Oracle to be lying when talking about what he has seen in the future (on the record or not), and there is no evidence that he is making false predictions. If the central plank of an arguement requires "Lying" or "Mistaken" then it is an extremely weak arguement.

With respect to the specific Belkar prophecies: I'm pretty sure Belkar is going to die. Two of the comments (one on the record) use very common terms for dying ("Not long for this world", "Last breath"), and the rest follow the same theme.

Something happening afterwards (this being D&D based) is always a possibility, but I think it unlikley: The afterlife story has already been done by Roy, the undead route by Durkon and the construct path by Crystal. I don't think there is any story value in Belkar following any of these paths.

Hasn't Durkon returned to the Dwarven homelands now? His body definitely has, and his spirit is trapped inside...

True: I did consider updating the entry to fulfilled, but that part of story isn't over yet and we don't know how it is going to play out, so I left the original note that following Durkon becoming a vampire it was in process of being fulfilled.

alwaysbebatman

2017-10-29, 11:21 AM

That depends on your understanding of THE FUTURETM : whether it can be changed or not. Hurak's example and the fact that the Oracle only bothered to create the Test of Heart after one client died despite knowing it would happen points towards the "fixed timeline" case ie : "suck it up 'cause you aint got a snowball's chance in Tartarus to change a thing".

I'm a compatibilist. What's going to happen is going to happen because of your free will, not despite it or overriding it.

This doesn't work if one has perfect information about the future, but that only proves one cannot have perfect information about the future.

This is how Roy understands things: when the Oracle is mistaken about the memory charm, he does not say: "I guess he must have been forced to make a false statement by the invisible hands of fate, because he saw in the future that I would not be effected by the memory charm, but he also saw himself saying the opposite. We are all puppets on invisible strings." He just figures the Oracle didn't look.

Refrain to kill him before their antics do get them killed ? (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0880.html)
Roy does not want to do anything about Belkar's prophecy because Belkar is a terrible person, and since Roy does not know about Belkar's character development he probably think that he needs killing once there are no longer worse people than him to be pointed towards.

I think Roy may regret what he said there, seeing as he was completely wrong and Belkar was right.

I do agree that the last two prophecies are in some way about Roy-- his character development or something. Seeing as he's the only character who heard them. The question is: what is the narrative purpose of Roy knowing that Belkar will soon breathe his last? I have no idea, but anticipate being surprised and amazed by whatever it turns out to be.

hamishspence

2017-10-29, 11:30 AM

I think Roy may regret what he said there, seeing as he was completely wrong and Belkar was right.

Roy gets another "You were right & I was wrong" moment here:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1026.html

and elaborates more on it in the next strip:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1027.html

That said, Belkar being right, doesn't mean that Roy likes him any more than he did before - he just takes his concerns more seriously than he did before.

alwaysbebatman

2017-10-29, 02:24 PM

I think that Roy and Belkar's relationship is a bit more complicated than simple dislike. I see it as a weird combination of disdain for his malignancy and grudging respect and backhanded affection. That's why I titled their Tournament matchup "Frenemy Fight"...

Fyraltari

2017-10-29, 06:34 PM

Also also, they only know Xykon killed Master Fyron because of a question Eugene asked the Oracle and got a straightforward answer to.

Wait, was this (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0078.html) retconned ?

alwaysbebatman

2017-10-29, 06:46 PM

No, I think that Eugene only knew what he looked like, (and that he was a murderous jerk Sorcerer necromancer,) before visiting the Oracle. And all he was able to find out from the Oracle was his name, which was not at all helpful, due to not properly planning for the "one question per petitioner" rule.

Kish

2017-10-30, 06:44 AM

Wait, was this (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0078.html) retconned ?
No*. What about it contradicts what I said?

I'm guessing the implication is that you're equating "knows Fyron was killed by a white-haired sorcerer wearing a crown" with "knows Fyron was killed by someone named Xykon."

*Partly, actually--the Big No was for animating Fyron's corpse rather than for killing him--but that doesn't relate to what I said.

Turin_19

2017-10-30, 07:15 AM

#flatootsearththeory

You're a genius. hahahahahahahha

Turin_19

2017-10-30, 07:52 AM

#329: "...the halfling shouldn't bother funding his IRA..."
#329: "...he should savor his next birthday cake..."
#572: "...your pal isn't long for this world..."
#572: (On the record) "Belkar will draw his last breath-- ever-- before the end of the year."

Thoughts?

Not that I like it (and not that I should have to like it anyway, it's the Giant's story), but he could become a vampire. One strip literally shows that vampires don't breath. It shows that it's another soul in control of the former body. Vampires only probably savour blood (Malack didn't eat at the feast, and Xykon - as an undead - doesn't have a sense of taste).

My bet, though, is that he will simply die. But in a way that there's a quantum of redemption.

Peelee

2017-10-30, 08:32 AM

Quebbster

2017-10-30, 08:36 AM

He could get stuck on the Astral Plane somehow. We know Xykon's fortress is there, so some sort of confrontation on the Astral Plane is not out of the question.
The big question is how to get him stuck there without any possibility to return to the Prime Material Plane though...

Grey_Wolf_c

2017-10-30, 08:55 AM

Not that I like it (and not that I should have to like it anyway, it's the Giant's story), but he could become a vampire. One strip literally shows that vampires don't breath. It shows that it's another soul in control of the former body. Vampires only probably savour blood (Malack didn't eat at the feast, and Xykon - as an undead - doesn't have a sense of taste).

But then Belkar would be permanently in this world, seeing as his soul would not be allowed to depart to the Chaotic Evil plane for judgment, and yet one of the prophecies is that "he is not long for this world".

So you need to add that he is turned into a vampire, then gets stuck in a different plane. At which point, it begs the question of how is that any different from him simply dying, except instead of getting to go to the plane where his soul will best fit, he gets to have an afterlife of being stuck in his corpse in some other plane.

Which, admittedly, for those who have animosity against Belka might be preferable to Belkar getting to enjoy an afterlife of wanton murdering sprees but, somehow, it's never those people who argue he will evade the prophecies.

Grey Wolf

Fyraltari

2017-10-30, 09:58 AM

No*. What about it contradicts what I said?

I'm guessing the implication is that you're equating "knows Fyron was killed by a white-haired sorcerer wearing a crown" with "knows Fyron was killed by someone named Xykon."

*Partly, actually--the Big No was for animating Fyron's corpse rather than for killing him--but that doesn't relate to what I said.

Nothing. It just so happens than the natural assumption of seeing three people interact in a panel-cutaway is that these people know each other. Just like when reading this (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0001.html) I assumed these people knew each other before.

Therefore when I read your comment stating that Eugene needed the Oracle's help figuring out who killed his master I was confused since in my mind Eugene always knew since, you know, he was there. Considering that some elements of Dungeon Crawling Fools were obviously changed I asked if this particular point was and alwaysbebatman explained that Eugene only knew what Xykon looked like (which again is not what that panels implies but it still makes sense).

There. This parenthesis is closed back to the discussion at hand.

Turin_19

2017-10-30, 11:14 AM

But then Belkar would be permanently in this world, seeing as his soul would not be allowed to depart to the Chaotic Evil plane for judgment, and yet one of the prophecies is that "he is not long for this world".

So you need to add that he is turned into a vampire, then gets stuck in a different plane. At which point, it begs the question of how is that any different from him simply dying, except instead of getting to go to the plane where his soul will best fit, he gets to have an afterlife of being stuck in his corpse in some other plane.

Which, admittedly, for those who have animosity against Belka might be preferable to Belkar getting to enjoy an afterlife of wanton murdering sprees but, somehow, it's never those people who argue he will evade the prophecies.

Grey Wolf

You are right and I had not thought of that.

Just adding some stuff, especulation from me, guessing really far with no hint at ALL in the ootsworld:
Could Durkon's case (being trapped into the body) have happened because of Malack's 'quick-vampire' spell?
Would someone be deprived of the afterlife simply because he/she became a vampire?
It looks a lot like a "soul bind" spell... a vampire would literally imprison the original person's soul in the body. That's kinda... 'overkill'.

I still really think he will just die anyway. But it's nice to speculate :D

Grey_Wolf_c

2017-10-30, 12:11 PM

Could Durkon's case (being trapped into the body) have happened because of Malack's 'quick-vampire' spell?

No, Rich has been quite clear that there is nothing exceptional about Durkon's vampirification. All vampires trap the soul inside themselves.

Would someone be deprived of the afterlife simply because he/she became a vampire?
No, it is only delayed until the vampire is destroyed. At that point, the original soul does get to go to their afterlife.

It looks a lot like a "soul bind" spell... a vampire would literally imprison the original person's soul in the body. That's kinda... 'overkill'.
It is, but that's the way it is.

Grey Wolf

D.One

2017-10-30, 12:39 PM

Could Durkon's case (being trapped into the body) have happened because of Malack's 'quick-vampire' spell?
Would someone be deprived of the afterlife simply because he/she became a vampire?
It looks a lot like a "soul bind" spell... a vampire would literally imprison the original person's soul in the body. That's kinda... 'overkill'.

Overkill or not, it (being deprived of the afterlife, at least until full destruction, because of the transformation in vampire) seems to be a reasonable hypothesis, no matter how do you figure the vampirization process.

1) If we adopt the Stickverse situation, the spirit remains imprisioned until full merging or the undead is destroyed, which means it didn'd depart for the afterlife.

2) If we go with the "regular D&D assumption", the spirit is corrupted and remains within the body as long as the undead is still undead.

D.One

2017-10-30, 12:45 PM

No, it is only delayed until the vampire is destroyed. At that point, the original soul does get to go to their afterlife.

Been thinking about this: what if the merging is complete and the soul has been fully absorved? Does it still go to the apropriate afterlife after the destruction of the vampire? Does the "vampire spirit" becomes a "real soul", and thus eligible for an afterlife, instead of remerging with its creator negative energy plane?

Kish

2017-10-30, 01:26 PM

Nothing. It just so happens than the natural assumption of seeing three people interact in a panel-cutaway is that these people know each other. Just like when reading this (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0001.html) I assumed these people knew each other before.
Does that include the goblins? 'Cause I figured the goblins knew each other, and the assorted humanoids they were fighting knew each other, but they constituted two separate groups that had just met, for my part.

I wonder how many other people assumed Xykon and Fyron were acquaintances before the one murdered the other.

Many more strips literally show that Belkar is not a vampire, but that he's dead and is locked away without any control over his corpse.
Possibly a typo there.

hroþila

2017-10-30, 01:31 PM

Been thinking about this: what if the merging is complete and the soul has been fully absorved? Does it still go to the apropriate afterlife after the destruction of the vampire? Does the "vampire spirit" becomes a "real soul", and thus eligible for an afterlife, instead of remerging with its creator negative energy plane?
We don't know that souls literally merge with the vampire spirit; chances are that once the vampire spirit has absorbed all the information it contains the soul goes dormant, which would mean it will still be there as a distinct entity to go to its appropriate afterlife eventually if the vampire is destroyed.

If souls literally merge with the vampire spirit, I would wager that means they cease to exist altogether, but I don't think there's any indication that the completion of the process would have any particular effect on the vampire spirit itself.

Grey_Wolf_c

2017-10-30, 01:32 PM

Been thinking about this: what if the merging is complete and the soul has been fully absorved? Does it still go to the apropriate afterlife after the destruction of the vampire? Does the "vampire spirit" becomes a "real soul", and thus eligible for an afterlife, instead of remerging with its creator negative energy plane?

As far as I know, there is no official answer, but I understand that the soul is not absorbed. It goes dormant, because the vampire spirit no longer needs to interact with it to gets its memories, having got them all, but the soul is neither destroyed nor absorbed. It's just relegated to a corner of the mind, never getting to interact with the vampire or even see the external world anymore.

I sincerely doubt that a negative energy spirit could ever be eligible to go to an afterlife, just like demons and angels. The negative spirit has more in common with elementals than it does with prime plane individuals.

Grey Wolf

Fyraltari

2017-10-30, 02:00 PM

As far as I know, there is no official answer, but I understand that the soul is not absorbed. It goes dormant, because the vampire spirit no longer needs to interact with it to gets its memories, having got them all, but the soul is neither destroyed nor absorbed. It's just relegated to a corner of the mind, never getting to interact with the vampire or even see the external world anymore.

I sincerely doubt that a negative energy spirit could ever be eligible to go to an afterlife, just like demons and angels. The negative spirit has more in common with elementals than it does with prime plane individuals.

Grey Wolf
Well the soul stops being a discrete consciousness (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1086.html) after a while which would imply a merging of some sort. That being said consciousness and soul are not exactly the same thing. What is the negative energy spirit even talking to right there : Durkon's soul ? mind ? consciousness ? subconscious ?

D.One

2017-10-30, 03:02 PM

Well the soul stops being a discrete consciousness (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1086.html) after a while which would imply a merging of some sort. That being said consciousness and soul are not exactly the same thing. What is the negative energy spirit even talking to right there : Durkon's soul ? mind ? consciousness ? subconscious ?

On the other hand, Malack states that, should he be resurrected, he would be a completely different person, implying that he would revert to his pre-vampirization state. This could mean that, even after "merging", the destruction frees the soul and a resurrection brings back the unmerged original.

Kish

2017-10-30, 03:23 PM

That's necessary, or Resurrection/True Resurrection would be effectively useless for bringing back someone turned into a vampire past X amount of time.

(That's assuming that "a while" is something less than, say, a thousand years; a level-100 cleric would probably have sufficiently powerful magic available to reverse any form of merging even should True Resurrection not work.)

Peelee

2017-10-30, 03:23 PM

On the other hand, Malack states that, should he be resurrected, he would be a completely different person, implying that he would revert to his pre-vampirization state. This could mean that, even after "merging", the destruction frees the soul and a resurrection brings back the unmerged original.

Malack's host was gone for too long for anything but True Res by an Epic-level caster to do anything, wasn't he?

D.One

2017-10-30, 03:29 PM

Malack's host was gone for too long for anything but True Res by an Epic-level caster to do anything, wasn't he?

It didn't need to be True res, since even normal Res has a time limit of 10 years per level, but since he says 200 years ago, it would probably take a 20+ level caster.

Grey_Wolf_c

2017-10-30, 03:40 PM

(That's assuming that "a while" is something less than, say, a thousand years; a level-100 cleric would probably have sufficiently powerful magic available to reverse any form of merging even should True Resurrection not work.)

"Usually the process [of absorbing all the host's memories] takes a few months" (source (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0948.html)). I think it is not incorrect to say that after, say, 8 or 9 months the original soul is already in its "eternal dormancy" mode, so clearly even a very "young" vampire will have fully absorbed the souls' memories and yet said soul is still fully resurrectable for quite some time past that point.

GW

Kish

2017-10-30, 03:45 PM

Thanks, Grey Wolf.

It didn't need to be True res, since even normal Res has a time limit of 10 years per level, but since he says 200 years ago, it would probably take a 20+ level caster.
Which, as Roy pointed out when the subject of Xykon's minimum level to cast an epic spell came up, means a cleric who's (just barely) short of epic could have done it, assuming Malack was being hyperliteral (a strict reading of the rules would suggest that if he died 200 years and 1 day ago, it would take a level 21+ caster to resurrect him).

Peelee

2017-10-30, 03:50 PM

It didn't need to be True res, since even normal Res has a time limit of 10 years per level, but since he says 200 years ago, it would probably take a 20+ level caster.

Hmmm. Seems I thought Resurrection was 1 year and True Res was 10. Thanks!

Random Poster

2017-10-30, 03:58 PM

This discussion seems to be focused on the exact details of what will happen to Belkar, but I don't think that's very important, because whether Belkar is killed, banished to another plane, turned into a vampire or something else, it will just mean that the Order will no longer have a short angry killing machine fighting on their side. While the Oracle might derive some small pleasure from making Roy expect that Belkar will simply die when he's actually going to be taken out of the picture in some other way, that would be a really lame misdirection by the Oracle's standards; if Roy is prepared for losing Belkar, then he's not going to make any wrong decisions by just losing Belkar. However, if Roy expects that only Belkar will die, then he is likely to assume that everyone else will be safe when it happens, which could lead him to make a disasterous mistake that ends up killing other people, and that would be the perfect way for the Oracle to screw Roy.

Fyraltari

2017-10-30, 05:06 PM

Ruck

2017-10-30, 10:36 PM

Sithrak

2017-11-01, 11:08 PM

NOTE: I believe that Belkar will die, no loopholes. The following is just an attempt to show that the opposing view is not completely ludicrous.

There is a long and respectable philosophical tradition that says a person who changes enough is effectively a new person (and that the former version of the person is therefore effectively dead). That would be one way of fulfilling the prophecy while avoiding the literal interpretation that Roy clearly believes was intended, and it has the added bonus of being alluded to in the actual text—not just in virtue of the passcode being "evolve or die (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0610.html)" (as if they are mutually exclusive options), but also in virtue of Belkar changing in ways that even he seems to be vaguely aware of (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0957.html) despite his low Wisdom score and abysmal Spot check).

I'm not saying this is how the story will go. In fact, I find it much more likely that Belkar will evolve and die. But it's a possibility that allows for the prophecy to be both accurate and cryptic (as several of them have been). It would also be an interesting way of breaking the parallels between the Order of the Stick and the Order of the Scribble (though we might already expect Belkar's unpleasantness to generate a much different reaction to his death than Kraagor's death generated for his party). Of course, some readers might see this as a cop-out. But whether or not one sees it that way might depend on how they view the underlying philosophical debate.

alwaysbebatman

2017-11-01, 11:32 PM

So.... the old Belkar stopped breathing because he is a different person now? That's a stretch... even for the Oracle.

Peelee

2017-11-02, 08:47 AM

There is a long and respectable philosophical tradition that says a person who changes enough is effectively a new person (and that the former version of the person is therefore effectively dead). That would be one way of fulfilling the prophecy while avoiding the literal interpretation that Roy clearly believes was intended, and it has the added bonus of being alluded to in the actual text—not just in virtue of the passcode being "evolve or die (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0610.html)" (as if they are mutually exclusive options), but also in virtue of Belkar changing in ways that even he seems to be vaguely aware of (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0957.html) despite his low Wisdom score and abysmal Spot check).

I'm not saying this is how the story will go. In fact, I find it just as likely that Belkar will evolve and die. But it's a possibility that allows for the prophecy to be both accurate and cryptic (as several of them have been). It would also be an interesting way of breaking the parallels between the Order of the Stick and the Order of the Scribble (though we might already expect Belkar's unpleasantness to generate a much different reaction to his death than Kraagor's death generated for his party). Of course, some readers might see this as a cop-out. But whether or not one sees it that way might depend on how they view the underlying philosophical debate.

Similarly, Belkar caused the death of everyone on his list by changing who they were as people.

hroþila

2017-11-02, 09:01 AM

Clearly, as illustrated by Hera****us, everything flows and nothing remains the same; you cannot step twice in the same stream and the ship of Theseus was not actually the same ship of Theseus. Many of Belkar's cells have died between the original prophecy and now, so that Belkar is obviously no more, whether or not his outlook has changed. QED prophecy fulfilled kthxbye

Ruck

2017-11-03, 03:17 AM

Similarly, Belkar caused the death of everyone on his list by changing who they were as people.

The Oracle was right; Belkar killed Roy by changing him into someone who can acknowledge when Belkar is right.

Sithrak

2017-11-03, 02:03 PM

So.... the old Belkar stopped breathing because he is a different person now?Not quite. What someone who adheres to this view should say is that Old Belkar "will draw his last breath" because he will stop existing when New Belkar replaces him. Old Belkar really will be dead. It's just not the sort of death that Roy is expecting.

Similarly, Belkar caused the death of everyone on his list by changing who they were as people.
The Oracle was right; Belkar killed Roy by changing him into someone who can acknowledge when Belkar is right.Nope. According to the relevant view of personal identity, the changes have to be of fundamental significance in order to count. Belkar has not caused a radical enough change in anyone else's being to affect their very personhood.

(And no, Miko doesn't count (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0567.html).)

Clearly, as illustrated by Hera****us, everything flows and nothing remains the sameHera****us' view of change is too permissive for this approach to the prophecy. The philosophical tradition I mentioned comes from people like John Locke and Bernard Williams.

Again, I'm not saying that this is what will happen. In fact, I don't personally adhere to the view of personal identity on which this theory of Belkar's (physical) survival is based. But this is the best case I could think of for the "Belkar won't die" group, and that in itself is a worthwhile exercise (assuming our interests extend beyond telling other people they are wrong).

Fyraltari

2017-11-03, 03:20 PM

Peelee

2017-11-03, 03:26 PM

Nope. According to the relevant view of personal identity, the changes have to be of fundamental significance in order to count. Belkar has not caused a radical enough change in anyone else's being to affect their very personhood.

Well, obviously not yet.

Except the Oracle, who was the type of person to spout off random crap and claim it counted as fulfilled prophecy. Naturally, Belkar changed him as a person to the point that he became the type of person who would agree that spouting off random crap to claim as a fulfilled prophecy wouldn't convince him, either; the old Oracle was dead, and the new Oracle was born. And then, rather incidentally I would say, the Oracle actually died.

Fyraltari

2017-11-03, 04:05 PM

Well, obviously not yet.

Except the Oracle, who was the type of person to spout off random crap and claim it counted as fulfilled prophecy. Naturally, Belkar changed him as a person to the point that he became the type of person who would agree that spouting off random crap to claim as a fulfilled prophecy wouldn't convince him, either; the old Oracle was dead, and the new Oracle was born. And then, rather incidentally I would say, the Oracle actually died.

Which raises the question : is the Oracle's next birthday cake going to be good ?

alwaysbebatman

2017-11-03, 05:20 PM

If it's especially good, he should make a point to savor it.

137beth

2017-11-05, 01:03 PM

Similarly, Belkar caused the death of everyone on his list by changing who they were as people.

Roy would be a different person if he hadn’t be sleep-deprived during the first book. Which wouldn’t have happened if he had that monk in the party instead of Belkar.

Ruck

2017-11-06, 04:12 PM

Nope. According to the relevant view of personal identity, the changes have to be of fundamental significance in order to count. Belkar has not caused a radical enough change in anyone else's being to affect their very personhood.
Maybe I should've used blue text. I firmly believe that the Oracle knows Belkar will die, no loopholes.

Kish

2017-11-08, 09:58 PM

No one should ever use blue text.

Peelee

2017-11-08, 11:59 PM

Not even Tobias Fünke?

Fyraltari

2017-11-09, 04:41 AM

No one should ever use blue text.

I agree with that sentiment.

Dr.Zero

2017-11-09, 11:24 AM

Wait, has March the 26, 1187 gone by ? Because if it has not it means the Oracle has prophecized Hel's defeat since there would need to still be a world for him to be killed by that druid.

Actually, yes.
Hel will fail.

This and the fact that Elan gets a happy ending, and I don't see Elan as the kind of guy who considers an happy ending: "World is destroyed, a whole race is enslaved and tortured in hell because you and your group failed miserably (by the way: good call on refusing daddy resources), but, hey, you managed to plane shift somewhere else with Haley and bang her a lot! Happy ending!"

Belkar could consider that an acceptable ending (very likely not, anyway: he would get bored of a single woman quite fast), but not Elan.

So, yes, if the Oracle is always right, according to two prophecies, Hel will fail.

And the Oracle knows it.

And the next question is: if the Oracle knows that Hel will fail, does Tiamat know it as well?
And why doesn't Hel know it, then, and simply give up?

And if Tiamat doesn't know the future, how can she give a power greater than her own to a mortal?

And, even if she can do so, why doesn't SHE use the services of the aforementioned mortal to know the future? (Which ends up in confirming that Tiamat could know the future and what will be of Hel's plan, just in a contrived way).

Peelee

2017-11-09, 11:45 AM

So, yes, if the Oracle is always right, according to two prophecies, Hel will fail.

And the Oracle knows it.

The Oracle is not omniscient. He does not know all things. He only knows Hel will fail if he knows about Hel's plan, which there is no evidence of. In fact, it seems as if he only knows the future of things he specifically looks for.

hroþila

2017-11-09, 11:51 AM

And if Tiamat doesn't know the future, how can she give a power greater than her own to a mortal?
Can all the gods cast all the spells they can grant to their clerics?

edit: honest question, I really have no idea.

Dr.Zero

2017-11-09, 11:53 AM

The Oracle is not omniscient. He does not know all things. He only knows Hel will fail if he knows about Hel's plan, which there is no evidence of. In fact, it seems as if he only knows the future of things he specifically looks for.

Ok, this might be.
But I don't think this changes the situation.

If the Oracle can see far away in the future, after these few days, even if the Oracle himself doesn't know Hel has a plan and the world is at stake, whoever has heard a prophecy by him, and knows that there is the world destruction at stake, then knows the world will not be destroyed.

So every other point in my post after "the Oracle knows it" seems to stand true. Including the points about what Tiamat should know (and, by extension, what the other gods might or should know, as long as we don't make the assumption that only Tiamat has the power of the vision).

Can all the gods cast all the spells they can grant to their clerics?

edit: honest question, I really have no idea.

I don't know, but AFAIR the Oracle doens't cast a spell, that was a "power" (I remember some fun stuff about: "Your mom making you president of her own company" or something like that).
Anyway if this was a simple divination spell, according to our preferred goblin high priest, a god can provide only informations that he knows himself.

Jasdoif

2017-11-09, 12:14 PM

Can all the gods cast all the spells they can grant to their clerics?

edit: honest question, I really have no idea.Assuming the divine rules are being used....Not all the gods and all the spells, no. While gods can use spells from their domains freely (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/divine/divineRanksAndPowers.htm#spellLikeAbilities), they still need levels in a divine spellcasting class to cast other cleric spells (although if they do, they can spontaneously cast any spell they can grant (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/divine/divineRanksAndPowers.htm#spontaneousCasting)).

Peelee

2017-11-09, 12:21 PM

So every other point in my post after "the Oracle knows it" seems to stand true. Including the points about what Tiamat should know (and, by extension, what the other gods might or should know, as long as we don't make the assumption that only Tiamat has the power of the vision).

Assuming Tiamat knows about such prophecies, or knows about the future. She seemed rather surprised about the Black Dragon massacre ("seemed" being the operative word, here).

It's entirely possible that Tiamat doesn't use this power, for whatever reason, and thus doesn't know.

Additionally, your right in that everyone who has had prophecies relating to a short while after this is capable of figuring out that means Hel will lose. This isn't the same as knowing, though. Take the High Priest of the Twelve Gods, for instance; he was capable of knowing his roll was, but he didn't actually realize it until he was dead.

hroþila

2017-11-09, 05:41 PM

I don't know, but AFAIR the Oracle doens't cast a spell, that was a "power" (I remember some fun stuff about: "Your mom making you president of her own company" or something like that).
Anyway if this was a simple divination spell, according to our preferred goblin high priest, a god can provide only informations that he knows himself.
Oh, my angle wasn't that the Oracle's powers are a spell, but rather that the gods may well be able to confer powers they don't themselves have.

Assuming the divine rules are being used....Not all the gods and all the spells, no. While gods can use spells from their domains freely (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/divine/divineRanksAndPowers.htm#spellLikeAbilities), they still need levels in a divine spellcasting class to cast other cleric spells (although if they do, they can spontaneously cast any spell they can grant (http://www.d20srd.org/srd/divine/divineRanksAndPowers.htm#spontaneousCasting)).
Thanks! That seems to add weight to my theory: that the Oracle can potentially see everything in the future does not necessarily mean that Tiamat can too.