Shillelagh vs Primal Savagery analysis [Druid]

[Merudo]

I here establish under which conditions is the Shillelagh superior to the Primal Savagery cantrip for a Druid.

First I make five assumptions:

(1) the Druid doesn't multiclass
(2) the Druid doesn't get any feat improving its melee abilities
(3) either the Druid makes negligible reaction attacks or has Warcaster
(4) Acid and bludgeoning damage are equally resisted
(5) the druid has neither advantage or disadvantage while attacking

Under these assumptions, Shillelagh & Primal Savagery do the following damage:

Damage:
Shillelagh: 1d8 (4.5) + wis modifier + weapon bonus
Primal Savagery: 1d10 (5.5) at level 1-4, 2d10 (11) at level 5-10, 3d10 (16.5) at level 11-16, and 4d10 (22) at level 17+.

At level 1-4, Shillelagh is always superior to Primal Savagery as long as Wisdom is 12 or more, while Primal Savagery is almost always preferable to Shillelagh at level 17+.

I will therefore concentrate on the interesting cases of level 5-10 and level 11-16.

Level 5-10
Mundane weapon: While using a mundane weapon, Primal Savagery is always preferable to Shillelagh

+1 weapon & +5 wis: Primal Savagery is preferable unless enemy AC is 21 to 28
+1 weapon & +4 wis: Primal Savagery is preferable unless enemy AC is 27
+1 weapon & +3 or less wis: Primal Savagery is always preferable to Shillelagh

+2 weapon & +5 wis: Shillelagh is preferable to Primal Savagery unless AC is 30+
+2 weapon & +4 wis: Shillelagh is preferable to Primal Savagery unless AC is 9 or less, or 29+
+2 weapon & +3 wis: Primal Savagery is preferable unless AC is 19 to 27

Staff of Withering: Shillelagh is preferable if charge is expended

Level 11-16
+1 or less weapon: Primal Savagery is always preferable to Shillelagh

+2 weapon & +5 wis: Primal Savagery is preferable unless AC is 28 to 29
+2 weapon & +4 wis: Primal Savagery is preferable unless AC is 28
+2 weapon & +3 wis: Primal Savagery is preferable

+3 weapon & +5 wis: Primal Savagery is preferable unless AC is 24 to 30
+3 weapon & +4 wis: Primal Savagery is preferable unless AC is 25 to 29
+3 weapon & +3 wis: Primal Savagery is preferable unless AC is 25 to 28

Staff of Withering: Shillelagh is preferable if charge is expended

For those interested, here is the R code of my analysis:


################################################## ###############
###### Find for which AC Primal Savagery is superior #########
###### for a given tier, wis modifier, and weapon bonus #########
################################################## ###############


### Variables to change #######
tier = 2 # tier of play

wis = 5 # wisdom modifier
bon = 1 # bonus from magical weapon
###############################


psd = 5.5*tier # average Primal Savagery damage on non-critical hit
shd = (4.5 + wis + bon) # average Shillelagh damage on non-critical hit

if (tier == 1){prof = 2}; if (tier == 2){prof = 3}; ## proficiency bonus to hit
if (tier == 3){prof = 4}; if (tier == 4){prof = 6};

nb = 20+bon # number of different AC to consider

data = matrix(nrow=nb, ncol = 7) # matrix to hold results
colnames(data) = c("ac", "ps_prhit", "sh_prhit", "ps_dm", "sh_dm", "dif", "ps_sup")

for (i in 1:nb){

ac = wis + prof + i

ps_tohit = min(i ,20) # Primal Savagery hits on this d20 result or higher
sh_tohit = max(i - bon, 1) # Shillelagh hits on this d20 result or higher

ps_prhit = (20 - ps_tohit )/20 # probability of normal hit with Primal Savagery
sh_prhit = (20 - sh_tohit )/20 # probability of normal hit with Shillelagh

ps_avd = ps_prhit * psd + 2*psd/20 # average damage Primal Savagery
sh_avd = sh_prhit * shd + (shd + 4.5)/20 #average damage Shillelagh

dif = ps_avd - sh_avd # difference in damage (positive means Primal savagery damage is higher)

data[i,1] = ac
data[i,2] = ps_tohit
data[i,3] = sh_tohit
data[i,4] = ps_avd
data[i,5] = sh_avd
data[i,6] = dif
data[i,7] = (dif >= 0) # is Primal Savagery superior?
} #end for

data

[Eragon123]

So. In your opinion, if we were to allow Shillelagh to scale, what would be the most balanced way to do it? (Continue to ignore multiclassing and other classes having access).

[Tetrasodium]

So. In your opinion, if we were to allow Shillelagh to scale, what would be the most balanced way to do it? (Continue to ignore multiclassing and other classes having access).

scaling it would be extremely problematic because it would be the equivalent of a 1-4d8 weapon & ad a result, magic initiate:druid->Shillelagh combined with maxed wisdom would be the prime choice for anyone who gets multiple attacks. Imagine doing 2-3 4d8+wis mod attacks per round with a stick at the cost of a bonus action every one minute.

[Willie the Duck]

So tie the scaling to druid level (so not unlike the cleric divine strike ability). Never understood why Shillelagh (and Find Familiar, as an unrelated tangent) were spells and not class features in the first place. However, since they are, let it continue to be a non-scaling cantrip that lets non-druids use wisdom (or charisma, if picked up by tomelock or bard) as their attack stat, but for druids is an ever increasing melee attack, keeping them thematically using staves (of even add a clause to allow the ability to work with scimitars, if you want to keep that old-school-ism).

[Unoriginal]

So tie the scaling to druid level (so not unlike the cleric divine strike ability). Never understood why Shillelagh (and Find Familiar, as an unrelated tangent) were spells and not class features in the first place. However, since they are, let it continue to be a non-scaling cantrip that lets non-druids use wisdom (or charisma, if picked up by tomelock or bard) as their attack stat, but for druids is an ever increasing melee attack, keeping them thematically using staves (of even add a clause to allow the ability to work with scimitars, if you want to keep that old-school-ism).

Druids have enough power already, they don't need an "ever increasing melee attack" on top of their other spells and their Wildshape.

[Vogie]

So. In your opinion, if we were to allow Shillelagh to scale, what would be the most balanced way to do it? (Continue to ignore multiclassing and other classes having access).

Perhaps increase the damage die over time? Base it on druid levels explicitly, so it'd only be available to Druids, Tome Locks, & Nature Clerics that get them naturally (with the "this spell counts as a __ spell for you" rider). Magic Initiates would be able to grab it, but not benefit from the scaling.

Maybe up to d10 at 9th level, and d12 at 18th?

[Willie the Duck]

Druids have enough power already, they don't need an "ever increasing melee attack" on top of their other spells and their Wildshape.

If we're not trying to upscale the single classes, SCAG-less druid melee combat, then we don't need to do anything. I am just saying that there is a way to do it without giving a handout to people who pick up Shillelagh through other means.

[Sinon]

Hang on...

I think this analysis is nice. I assume it is accurate as well.

The conclusion is that, while sometimes Shillelagh is better than Primal Savagery, Primal Savagery is better most of the time.

This is interesting information for those who want to optimize. For my own part, this could, in some games, convince me to ignore the oddity of growing claws that do acid damage.

But I don't read Merudo's analysis as a call to make any changes.

Some cantrips are better than others. He broke down the situational whens and whys.

He didn't say anything about a need for fixing anything.

[Willie the Duck]

But I don't read Merudo's analysis as a call to make any changes.
Some cantrips are better than others. He broke down the situational whens and whys.
He didn't say anything about a need for fixing anything.

You're right, Eragon, not Medudo asked if we were to put scaling into Shillelagh, how best to do it. Tetrasodium suggested that this would be problematic, whereupon I and Vogie suggested ways that it wouldn't have to be.
*a plausibly reasonable goal. Although I have no problem with a character choice being 'good from levels 1-X', and the advantage at level <X+1>-20 being that you survived to get to that point. But I know others do not see it that way.

[Merudo]

Hang on...

The conclusion is that, while sometimes Shillelagh is better than Primal Savagery, Primal Savagery is better most of the time.


Correct - at tier 2+, Primal Savagery is almost always preferable, unless using a charge with something like the Staff of Withering.

The exception is a Druid with high wisdom using a +2 weapon or better at tier 2, in which case Shillelagh is typically better.

[Rixitichil]

I spotted the corner case of a High Elf with a SCAG cantrip, but it clearly is the intention to exclude it here.
Similarly a custom magic item which does bonus damage, (a flaming club maybe,) or even a Staff of Thunder and Lightning or Striking make Shillelagh a lot more attractive.
But even without that, a basic +1 club or staff is going to be close enough to Primal Savagery to be playable, and magic Bludgeoning being less resisted than acid in general seems a trade off that makes this an interesting decision.

[Merudo]

Similarly a custom magic item which does bonus damage, (a flaming club maybe,) or even a Staff of Thunder and Lightning or Striking make Shillelagh a lot more attractive.

You are right, but typically these items are obtained at high tiers, and/or can only do the bonus damage a few times a day.

[Daghoulish]

You are right, but typically these items are obtained at high tiers, and/or can only do the bonus damage a few times a day.

Why are they limited by a number of uses per day? The Flame Tongue sword has infinite uses all day as long as it's burning. Why can't a staff of lightning be the same way?

[Merudo]

Why are they limited by a number of uses per day? The Flame Tongue sword has infinite uses all day as long as it's burning. Why can't a staff of lightning be the same way?

Because the Staff of Thunder and Lightning grants a +2 bonus to Attack and Damage Rolls (Flame Tongue doesn't give any such bonus) and the staff also has 4 other powers?



But even without that, a basic +1 club or staff is going to be close enough to Primal Savagery to be playable

True, especially for high wisdom characters. For example, against a 16 ac creature, a level 8 Druid with 20 Wisdom will do an average of 7.70 damage with Primal Savagery and 7.58 with Shillelagh (with a +1 weapon).

With 16 wisdom, that becomes 6.60 with Primal Savagery and 5.33 with Shillelagh.

Primal Savagery does noticeably more damage against low AC targets, which is typically against whom you'll want to use a melee attack.

[Willie the Duck]

You are right, but typically these items are obtained at high tiers, and/or can only do the bonus damage a few times a day.

So it depends on if you are making a druid with a melee focus or a druid who wants to hit hard the 3-4 times a day they attempt to hit something.

Side question: Even though both of these use the melee attack roll (not save vs.), making getting advantage or disadvantage on attacks roughly equal), and neither magic bludgeoning weapons nor acid being often resisted... is there ever a situation where something take less/more damage because one is a spell attack and the other attacking with a magic weapon? Any kind of magic resistance-thing? I do not have the MM memorized, but a long stretch, but most things are advantage on saves or the like, but there could be some edge cases.

[Daghoulish]

Because the Staff of Thunder and Lightning grants a +2 bonus to Attack and Damage Rolls (Flame Tongue doesn't give any such bonus) and the staff also has 4 other powers?

Sorry, I didn't realize that the Staff of Thunder and Lightning was an actual item. I though he was talking about homebrew items as he brought up a flaming club, which I assumed was just a club version of a Flame Tongue.

[Merudo]

So it depends on if you are making a druid with a melee focus or a druid who wants to hit hard the 3-4 times a day they attempt to hit something.


Good point. Staff of Withering in particular makes Shillelagh very powerful for the 1d3 times a day you can use it for. I've added the data for it.