(PF) Probability Weapon Enhancement

[MaxiDuRaritry]

This enhancement (https://www.d20pfsrd.com/magic-items/3rd-party-magic-items/3rd-party-magic-weapons/weapon-properties/alluria-publishing/probability-weapon) changes your attack rolls on the weapon from 1d20 + modifiers to 2d10 or 5d4, depending on whether you use it as a +1 or +2 enhancement.

That's fine and good and all, but how would that affect critical hits and failures? It looks to me as though it lowers your chances of a nat 20 or nat 1 from 5% to 1% for a +1, meaning that things like vorpal almost never occur, and many weapons will almost never crit. That's not even counting the chances on the +2, which are a mere 1/1,024, which is about 0.097%.

Does anyone have access to the book that's in, and does it mention anything about how to adjudicate it? Because it looks to me like you're likely to avoid adding this to anything you would like to critical on, and would mainly prefer it on something you absolutely do NOT want to miss on. And that's only if you already have a really high attack bonus, so average attack rolls against your enemies hit far more often than not. I guess if you have a super-high crit rate (such as 11-20), this might be okay, but...

This just...really seems weird to me.

Are there any other bennies or pennies this tosses into the mix that I'm not seeing right off?

[The Random NPC]

I believe the highest threat range is about 14+, so no you wouldn't want to put vorpal with this enchantment. You'd grab it for the increase likelihood of middling rolls. It's also 3rd party, so that's something to keep in mind.

[MaxiDuRaritry]

Yeah, I know it's 3rd party. It's something I'm allowed to have, though, and I'm just trying to figure out unorthodox ways to use this and if there are any hidden pitfalls I should know.

[TiaC]

Yeah, I know it's 3rd party. It's something I'm allowed to have, though, and I'm just trying to figure out unorthodox ways to use this and if there are any hidden pitfalls I should know.

Put it on a gun. The +1 can't roll a one, and the +2 can't roll 1-4. This pretty much eliminates misfires.

[Necroticplague]

Put it on a gun. The +1 can't roll a one, and the +2 can't roll 1-4. This pretty much eliminates misfires.

Plus, firearms hitting touch AC means you're less likely to need a really high roll to hit with them, so simply guaranteeing that your roll isn't low is usually good enough.

[MaxiDuRaritry]

Are there any ways to sub attack rolls for skill checks or saving throws? Seems to me that more average rolls at the expense of crits (in either direction) would sweeten the deal.

[grarrrg]

Take the +2 version, the Measured Response (http://www.aonprd.com/FeatDisplay.aspx?ItemName=Measured%20Response) feat, and remember that Abadar loves you.


But seriously... It's overall a bad trade.
The enchant does not compare favorably to just getting a straight "+1" or "+2".
Damage-wise: "No Crit Hit/Miss" is generally a downgrade, as Crit Misses were probably going to miss and do no damage anyway, but the loss of Crit Damage hurts.
Accuracy-wise: the +1 ability is slightly worse, the +2 ability is roughly breaking even.

1d20 averages 10.5
2d10 averages 11, net +.5 to hit vs. 1d20
5d4 averages 12.5, net +.2 to hit vs. 1d20
(disclaimer: I am aware this is a VERY simplified example, but there are too many "but"s to account for all of them and arrive at a satisfactory conclusion)

So overall you're breaking even at accuracy, but losing out on damage. Unless someone can find something to actually abuse with this, it's best to ignore it an move on.

[Florian]

This just...really seems weird to me.

No only to you. I mean, yeah, hurray, someone figured out how bell curves work, huzzah!

More seriously, the only reasons for this enchantment I can com up with are either the combination of being already in the auto-hit territory and wanting to avoid a nat 1, or in combination with special attacks that use a limited resource and you don't want to waste them.

[Necroticplague]

No only to you. I mean, yeah, hurray, someone figured out how bell curves work, huzzah!

More seriously, the only reasons for this enchantment I can com up with are either the combination of being already in the auto-hit territory and wanting to avoid a nat 1, or in combination with special attacks that use a limited resource and you don't want to waste them.

Or possibly if you use riders where the attack damage itself is unimportant, as long as it hits. Avoiding those low rolls to make sure the rider applies might be more important than the extra damage from crits.