Math for when Witch bolt RAW might be better than cantrips

[Shuruke]

So I just realized yesterday that only witchbolts primary damage scales

So I'm just gonna put a few things below and if anyone asks for me to compare to certain spells ill look at it


Note - yes it is on Warlock spell list but I won't be comparing to E.B just cuz well. E.B is better than most things.


Comparison
Level 5
2nd level chromatic orb and then fire bolts
2nd level witch bolt and witch bolt

Chromatic orb 4d8 average 19.8
Witch bolt 2d12. 14.3

60% 11.88 and 8.58
5.5 difference not factoring % hit but factoring 5%crit
60% to hit 3.3 difference.


Fire bolt 2d10. 12.1
Witch bolt 1d12. 6.5

60% of 12.1. Is 7.26
55% is 6.65
50% is 6.05

Note
With 60% hit chance (not sure if this is listed anywhere but generally I throw monsters at players with them having 55-65% hit rate)


Overview in order to be better than chromatic orb and then Fire bolt you would need 50% or less to hit chance and the full concentration of damage to make it same as just having cast Fire bolt. Or 6 turns with 60% to hit.



Scorching ray 3* 2d6 and Fire bolt

Vs witch bolt

60% hit
13.86 scorching ray
W.B 8.58

5.26 difference. Even full concentration of W.B wouldn't catch up at 60%


To me with way it is looking is after level 5 W.B is only good if your against a enemy who you have less than 50% to hit. And only with 7 turns XD

Where as pre level 3 and at level 3 and 4 its an extremely nice to have spell

I don't think I'm missing anything but correct me if I am.

I used to think it was a mediocre spell at all levels especially if your were against a high a.c. enemy and could get advantage or inspiration from someone.

I think I moght keep ruling it as +1d12.to both instances of damage per slot.just because how easy it is to escape.

[Yunru]

You're optimistic when you say Witch Bolt will have a second round, given how easy it is to break it.

[Shuruke]

Yeah I know I wasnt worrying about the if broken end of deal mainly cause this is about numbers

Youd think with how easy it is to break it would deal more damage ie scale on both procs
But it doesn't so yaaaaa

I understand that a creature hit by witchbolt from a caster 15 feet away can disengage to not provoke Aoo from melees and break it

Or move behind cover without provoking aoo

However I just wanted to point out that after 5 their is practically no reason to use it in normal circumstances as is

[Gtdead]

The problem with trying to optimize that spell isn't the damage. It's the damn range. You either have to attack the meatshield, or anyone else can just move out of range and that's that. Using concentration is the second strike.

50% hit chance
5 rounds per encounter

Firebolt only
27.5

--------

WB + Firebolt if WB misses

WB hits
39
WB miss, 4 firebolts
22

With 50% of each happening, (39+22)/2 = 30.5

--------

Scorching Ray + Firebolt

SR 6d6+ FB 8d10 = 65
65 * 50% = 32.5

With crits calculated you get a bit more on SR and FB, not so much on WB though.
So even at 50% hit chance, is probably better to cast a scorching ray instead of upcasted WB. You could try quicken other spells along with WB since it just uses your action, but that's if you can actually hold it for 5 rounds without the target just taking a step back and ending it.

[Blood of Gaea]

You could save a lot of time by reading the spell and then saying "never".

[Vorpalchicken]

Before level 5, if it is cast on an opponent who is already engaged with your melee fighters. Backing off will provoke opportunity attacks which is worse than taking the Witchbolt damage.

[Tanarii]

The expected damage curve for witch bolt is pretty far ahead of Firebolt in Tier 1. Over three rounds (to use the DMG standard for damage) you're looking Fire Bolt 9.9 avg vs Witch Bolt 14.34 avg at 60% hit chance.

But the distribution is tightly around the average for Fire Bolt. Whereas for Witch Bolt it's lopsided distribution, since there's a 60% chance of hitting 3 times for Witch Bolt Damage vs a 40% of taking 2 60% Fire Bolt shots if you miss. That makes for a interesting curve.

[Vogie]

If you:

Are a sorcerer
With Distant Spell
And a Single Target
And can use your bonus action for other things
It could be 100% better than cantrips.

You can get a lot of mileage out of a single spell slot. Maybe when you have a dip in Bard or Rogue, so you can reliably dash around that 60 foot radius or be tossing out inspiration (or advantage, if a mastermind) while keeping yourself behind half and 3/4 cover.

[Rebonack]

I would choose magic missile and two fire bolts over three rounds of witch bolt every single time in T1. At T2 or higher it shouldn't ever be a question.

At our table we changed it as follows.

1) Both the primary and secondary damage scale.

2) Secondary attacks don't automatically hit, but you have advantage on the attack roll if you hit that target with witch bolt on the previous round.

3) You may keep making attacks with this spell until the duration or your concentration ends.

This makes it a solid short range blasty spell that remains competitive with cantrips provided you upcast it.

Playing a more durable caster or feel like living dangerously? Why not try some force lightning?

[Blood of Gaea]

Even at level 1, assuming you have a 50% hit rate for attack rolls. I also won't compare it to Magic Missile.

Round 1: Chromatic Orb: 3d8 (13.5)| 6.75 average damage at half accuracy.
Round 2: Firebolt: 1d10 (5.5)| 2.75 average damage at half accuracy.
Round 3: Firebolt: 1d10 (5.5)| 2.75 average damage at half accuracy.
Total: 12.25 average damage.


Round 1: Witch Bolt: 1d12 (6.5)| 3.25 average damage at half accuracy.
Round 2: Witch Bolt: 1d12 (6.5)| 6.5 average damage with auto hit.
Round 3: Witch Bolt: 1d12 (6.5)| 6.5 average damage with auto hit.
Total: 16.25 average damage.

So in this situation provided you can hold the spell on the target, you'll do 4 more average damage than straight Chromatic Orb + Firebolt.

Also, it's worth considering Witch Bolt needs to be held on the target, takes concentration, and the auto-hits cannot crit, you're also out of luck if the target dies in the next round or two.

[Tanarii]

Round 1: Witch Bolt: 1d12 (6.5)| 3.25 average damage at half accuracy.
Round 2: Witch Bolt: 1d12 (6.5)| 6.5 average damage with auto hit.
Round 3: Witch Bolt: 1d12 (6.5)| 6.5 average damage with auto hit.
Total: 16.25 average damage.this isn't accurate, because the follow up damage depends on the initial attack. And if you miss, you Firebolt instead on follow up rounds.

Also 50% chance to hit is a somewhat high AC target (AC 15-16). If that's your target, for spell slots it's worth thinking about save spells, since that's the typical 'hit' rate for those.

[Blood of Gaea]

this isn't accurate, because the follow up damage depends on the initial attack. And if you miss, you Firebolt instead on follow up rounds.

Also 50% chance to hit is a somewhat high AC target (AC 15-16). If that's your target, for spell slots it's worth thinking about save spells, since that's the typical 'hit' rate for those.
Brain fart, you're right.

If you want to get the average damage split with firebolts, it would be 4.625. Averaging out to 12.5 damage over three rounds.

If I was facing a high AC creature as a low-level Wizard, yeah, I would probably cast Tashia's Hideous Laughter followed by Toll the Dead. Though for pure blasting comparison, Magic Missile would be more suitable, dealing an upfront 10.5 average damage if they can't cast Shield.

[LudicSavant]

this isn't accurate, because the follow up damage depends on the initial attack. And if you miss, you Firebolt instead on follow up rounds.

This is correct.

To elaborate:

When comparing expected DPR for various tools, Witch Bolt's expected DPR is not (hit chance * 6.5) on first round followed by 6.5 on following rounds.

The reason for this is because it has a miss chance, it just spreads the damage for that hit over multiple actions.

Now let's say the chance you hit on round 1 is H, and the chance you have maintained Witch Bolt to the current round is M. In which case the formula for future rounds would be...

The actual expected DPR would be as follows:

Round 1 = H * 6.5

Round 2 = (H*M) * (6.5) + (1-(H*M)) * (average DPR of whatever you'd do if Witch Bolt had failed)

Round 3 = As 2, except M tends to get lower and lower each round.

Basically, Witch Bolt is even worse than one might think, by a significant factor. :vaarsuvius:

[Yuroch Kern]

Huh. So this spell, when cast successfully, everything knows to move away from your caster. And from all the commentary on various threads happens? Cool. Also, if the target gets grappled, won't these calculations become a little moot? This is an incredible combo spell. To say it's useless like True Strike is pretty harsh.

[LudicSavant]

Huh. So this spell, when cast successfully, everything knows to move away from your caster. And from all the commentary on various threads happens? Cool. Also, if the target gets grappled, won't these calculations become a little moot? This is an incredible combo spell. To say it's useless like True Strike is pretty harsh.

The calculations don't become moot at all. Even if you set "M" to 100% (e.g. assume that Witch Bolt is never broken), your DPR is still poor due to the above calculation. There's no combo in the game that fixes that.

Not to mention that even if you have a grappler who has nothing better to do, Create Bonfire combos better with grapples.

[Yuroch Kern]

Once it hits in a combo, DPR is free. If it never stops, WB does another 9d12 lightning damage for one 1st level slot. If not, the enemy has moved away(yay!), or the party has failed to stop the foe from engaging and forced a concentration check. Cantrips are free, but generally have a to-hit or save every time. That can kill DPS in a flash. WB has the option of working overtime for free as a lighning based magic missile.

[Blood of Gaea]

Once it hits in a combo, DPR is free. If it never stops, WB does another 9d12 lightning damage for one 1st level slot. If not, the enemy has moved away(yay!), or the party has failed to stop the foe from engaging and forced a concentration check. Cantrips are free, but generally have a to-hit or save every time. That can kill DPS in a flash. WB has the option of working overtime for free as a lighning based magic missile.
1d12 even on an auto-hit isn't very good. That's only 6.5 average damage, and it also requires concentration.

Comparing it to magic missile doesn't work, as that's straight up 10.5 damage, which can be followed by your normal cantrips. Which in your roughly average 3 ish round fight will surpass Witch Bolt, and can be spread to multiple enemies.

[Yuroch Kern]

Create Bonfire has the same math problem I see a lot too: Dex saving throw. Also, fire is energy that everything can resist, neh? It also starts at 1d8(4,5 avg.). It also doesn't move AND has concentration. And not everyone has a splatbook for that spell. I speak with bias of course. Our bard brawler grappled every enemy tank and the sorcerer would spend one or two first level slots and the rest would protect against that conc check. The bard would then trip the tank and that was it for him.

[LudicSavant]

Not only is 1d12 average damage not good, but you don't actually get 6.5 average damage, as explained in detail in the above posts.

The fact that you can miss the initial hit, and all of the future hits depend on that, means that from a DPR calculation standpoint, it is less like Magic Missile and more like a "miss negates" DoT that happens to require you to invest actions every turn to keep it ticking.

[Yuroch Kern]

Magic Missile is always gonna surpass low level spells because of 3 auto-hits. But that logic is why the math at the beginning omits it: a single target WILL take 10.5 average Force damage, unless they have Shield for some reason, per first level slot. If WB hits, the DM now is looking at a potential 65 average lightning damage first level spell IF they do nothing. Suddenly, WB has an unwritten rider. They flee or engage. There has yet to be any variation I'm aware of. And it is still a single first level slot. Low damage is powerful if can do all that for basically FREE.

[Blood of Gaea]

Create Bonfire has the same math problem I see a lot too: Dex saving throw. Also, fire is energy that everything can resist, neh? It also starts at 1d8(4,5 avg.). It also doesn't move AND has concentration. And not everyone has a splatbook for that spell. I speak with bias of course. Our bard brawler grappled every enemy tank and the sorcerer would spend one or two first level slots and the rest would protect against that conc check. The bard would then trip the tank and that was it for him.
Okay? Bonfire is decently useful in the right situation, Witch Bolt is not. Why are you changing the conversation?

Also, Bonfire doesn't require further actions to deal more damage (so you can cast more damage cantrips/spells), and being a cantrip there's no punishment for casting the spell again to move it.


Magic Missile is always gonna surpass low level spells because of 3 auto-hits. But that logic is why the math at the beginning omits it: a single target WILL take 10.5 average Force damage, unless they have Shield for some reason, per first level slot. If WB hits, the DM now is looking at a potential 65 average lightning damage first level spell IF they do nothing. Suddenly, WB has an unwritten rider. They flee or engage. There has yet to be any variation I'm aware of. And it is still a single first level slot. Low damage is powerful if can do all that for basically FREE.
Except those following actions could be "FREE" cantrips, so your point is entirely moot. And anything at a level low enough to be casting Witch Bolt will be dead long before the entire spell is used. The Magic Missile + Cantrip combo also doesn't take concentration.

[Mellack]

I think the damage would still lose out even with your bard's help. Instead of 3 rounds of Witch Bolt, you could use Magic Missile the first round for a higher average damage, then walk up and be getting advantage on a Firebolt cantrip. This would only use the same number of spell slots (one), and still allow you the option of changing targets if needed. It doesn't require concentration, so also allows many buffing options. And entirely in the PHB.

[Shuruke]

I'm just sad that such a unique spell is so useless after level 3
Let alone how its only ok at 1 and 2.

Lets face it if you gave a player the choice of throwing fire or being a Sith lord with both doimg same dpr from my experience my players would pick sith lord lool


Thanks for all the responses guys I'm still really new to doing math calculations for dnd and wanted to see your guys thoughts


It does have a really weird curve
And I'm sure that if you built specifically around it as a bronze dragon sorc you could do decent Dpr
Especially since lightning doesnt have very good ranged cantrips unless u extend shocking grasp

[Mellack]

I agree that the flavor and imagery is great. I wish it were a good spell. Unfortunately it is just terrible mechanically. There is really no reason to have it taking up a memorized or learned spell slot.

[Yuroch Kern]

True, investing actions on it may seem a waste, but you will be technically be doing that if you cast Firebolt every round and miss. Or Scorching Ray. Or Vicious Mockery and they save everytime. The above example also has If you miss with the Ray, cast Firebolt. They're close? Cast WB. Next round, auto-hit 1d12 lightning, or attempt 1d10 fire. They run? Cool. Spell is broken, but now they are away from caster and Firebolt them. They engage? The warriors are slacking, but it's possible they miss, or hit and you successfully concentrate. On your turn, they take another 1d12 and you are also chastising the rest of the group. The DPS does alter at level 5, in which case, yeah, you can trade it up for something else. Unless you laugh out loud and just upcast the initial damage to 3d12 with the bard holding the dude down.

[Yuroch Kern]

Firebolt is a ranged attack. You would get disadvantage at point-blank without the Crossbow Expert feat, as well if they are prone first.

[LudicSavant]

Magic Missile is always gonna surpass low level spells because of 3 auto-hits. But that logic is why the math at the beginning omits it: a single target WILL take 10.5 average Force damage, unless they have Shield for some reason, per first level slot. If WB hits, the DM now is looking at a potential 65 average lightning damage first level spell IF they do nothing. Suddenly, WB has an unwritten rider. They flee or engage. There has yet to be any variation I'm aware of. And it is still a single first level slot. Low damage is powerful if can do all that for basically FREE.


True, investing actions on it may seem a waste, but you will be technically be doing that if you cast Firebolt every round and miss. Or Scorching Ray. Or Vicious Mockery and they save everytime. The above example also has If you miss with the Ray, cast Firebolt. They're close? Cast WB. Next round, auto-hit 1d12 lightning, or attempt 1d10 fire. They run? Cool. Spell is broken, but now they are away from caster and Firebolt them. They engage? The warriors are slacking, but it's possible they miss, or hit and you successfully concentrate. On your turn, they take another 1d12 and you are also chastising the rest of the group. The DPS does alter at level 5, in which case, yeah, you can trade it up for something else. Unless you laugh out loud and just upcast the initial damage to 3d12 with the bard holding the dude down.

What you're missing is that Witch Bolt can miss as easily as Firebolt. Your DPR just all rides on one roll, instead of an average of multiple rolls.

It is not the advantage that you think it is. It is in no way like Magic Missile from a DPR calculation standpoint. And it is certainly not "FREE."

[Mellack]

Firebolt is a ranged attack. You would get disadvantage at point-blank without the Crossbow Expert feat, as well if they are prone first.

Yep, I missed that.



True, investing actions on it may seem a waste, but you will be technically be doing that if you cast Firebolt every round and miss. Or Scorching Ray. Or Vicious Mockery and they save everytime. The above example also has If you miss with the Ray, cast Firebolt. They're close? Cast WB. Next round, auto-hit 1d12 lightning, or attempt 1d10 fire. They run? Cool. Spell is broken, but now they are away from caster and Firebolt them. They engage? The warriors are slacking, but it's possible they miss, or hit and you successfully concentrate. On your turn, they take another 1d12 and you are also chastising the rest of the group. The DPS does alter at level 5, in which case, yeah, you can trade it up for something else. Unless you laugh out loud and just upcast the initial damage to 3d12 with the bard holding the dude down.

There are other ways of breaking the spell. If they were close, they can hit you and break your concentration. Or moves behind cover momentarily such as behind a pillar or statue. It is not just stay and be hit or run away. Also it is not the other characters job to protect you. If you were not concentrating on WB you could have a blur up or some other concentration buff.

[Yuroch Kern]

What you don't seem to get is that Witch Bolt can miss as easily as Firebolt. Your DPR just all rides on one roll, instead of an average of multiple rolls.

It is not the advantage that you think it is. It is in no way like Magic Missile from a DPR calculation standpoint. And it is certainly not "FREE."

I was not saying it wasn't free. I included the slot. As stated, MM is king with no comparison, except it is a slot everytime, so it expends resources fast. Also, doing any spell with an attack/save is riding on one roll, so WB isn't weird at all. Scorching ray? A 2d6 fire ray hopes you succeed. Chromatic orb? Now we're talking, except 3d8 energy of choice still needs to hit. These spells, like WB, do nothing if they miss, spend the slot and now the caster switches to cantrips. Or they hit, and frankly, WB's 1d12 is comparable to practically all damage dice at low level. With the first two spells though, you hit and are gonna go cantrip, but WB will maintain 1d12. The MM comparison was more for the auto-hit, not damage. Meanwhile, while the Firebolts/Eldritch Blasts fly with their 1d10, the WB can do it's 1d12 thing. If you think of WB as 1d12 close range attack spell first, it's not so bad. And it is free DPS after it hits, but attack spells and slots are always a gamble initially.

[Mellack]

Except it is not free DPS. It takes both your action and concentration. That is a fairly high cost.

[Yuroch Kern]

Yep, I missed that.




There are other ways of breaking the spell. If they were close, they can hit you and break your concentration. Or moves behind cover momentarily such as behind a pillar or statue. It is not just stay and be hit or run away. Also it is not the other characters job to protect you. If you were not concentrating on WB you could have a blur up or some other concentration buff.

Yep. They can hit you and (possibly) break your concentration. ENGAGE you. Or MOVE behind cover momentarily for that attempt at full cover. I feel I said that as the options. Yep, it isn't the other characters job to protect you, but that doesn't sound very much like it's a very cohesive party ethic, allowing casters to melee. Huh. Also, as we are talking low level, then why even bother with attack slots then? Heroism and Chill Touch, aaaaand GO!:smallcool:

[Yuroch Kern]

Except it is not free DPS. It takes both your action and concentration. That is a fairly high cost.

Hmmm, inflicting damage is typically gonna take your action. Concentration is the only cost here, but in my previous post, I'm basically saying if you do a standard defensive buff and attack cantrip combo, you are probably wasting your time with ANY attack based slot outside MM before 5th level. If WB didn't have concentration, it would be incredibly overpowered. Tactically, dropping the WB after success is also free with no other penalty. Of course, are you the buffer? Or the magical attacker? Free in this case is meant for the DPS. If you can take the cocentration, then it's no longer a cost. The enemy is gonna die if he can't stop you, or you roll crappy damage.

[Mellack]

Hmmm, inflicting damage is typically gonna take your action. Concentration is the only cost here, but in my previous post, I'm basically saying if you do a standard defensive buff and attack cantrip combo, you are probably wasting your time with ANY attack based slot outside MM before 5th level. If WB didn't have concentration, it would be incredibly overpowered. Tactically, dropping the WB after success is also free with no other penalty. Of course, are you the buffer? Or the magical attacker? Free in this case is meant for the DPS. If you can take the cocentration, then it's no longer a cost. The enemy is gonna die if he can't stop you, or you roll crappy damage.

The action is still an opportunity cost, as it forces you to use that particular action or lose the spell. Unlike a cantrip which you can freely choose each turn.

I also think you tend to ignore how easy it is for the target to break the spell. If they are a ranged attacker, they can easily move out of range. If they are not held, they can usually get cover to break the spell and still get up to attack you. Even with your best case scenario of having someone pin them for you, it is only making the spell moderately powered.

[Blood of Gaea]

I was not saying it wasn't free. I included the slot. As stated, MM is king with no comparison, except it is a slot everytime, so it expends resources fast. Also, doing any spell with an attack/save is riding on one roll, so WB isn't weird at all. Scorching ray? A 2d6 fire ray hopes you succeed. Chromatic orb? Now we're talking, except 3d8 energy of choice still needs to hit. These spells, like WB, do nothing if they miss, spend the slot and now the caster switches to cantrips. Or they hit, and frankly, WB's 1d12 is comparable to practically all damage dice at low level. With the first two spells though, you hit and are gonna go cantrip, but WB will maintain 1d12. The MM comparison was more for the auto-hit, not damage. Meanwhile, while the Firebolts/Eldritch Blasts fly with their 1d10, the WB can do it's 1d12 thing. If you think of WB as 1d12 close range attack spell first, it's not so bad. And it is free DPS after it hits, but attack spells and slots are always a gamble initially.
You're missing the point with MM. With MM you can use your first turn to cast it, then in following rounds you just cast your attack cantrip. In the 3-4 round range, you will do more damage over those rounds then you would have using Witch Bolt. Meanwhile, it doesn't take concentration, and you're not punished for switching targets.

There is never, ever, a situation where Witch Bolt is the best option, and only rarely is it even a half-decent one. It's literally one of the worst spells in the entire game.

[Yuroch Kern]

Well, yes, the action is used if you wish to maintain it. If nothing needs to change, do a 1d12. The spell is basically an upcastable 1d12 lightning damage ranged magic attack with it's real only flaw: 30' range. At low level, it can be a quick spell to get some bigger damage, like SRay and MM. As experience keeps saying, yeah you might not get the extra damage because even lowly goblins know to FLEE beyond 30'. Weird, right? Yep, every thing you say about how easy it is to break the spell applies to any spell with concentration and range. The range is the real stickler, as I admitted, and makes this a very tactical/combo spell. Could be mitigated with Spell Sniper, as the sorcerer did. I agree with MM, and I don't dispute it. Did I? MM has the best single target damage out of all low level spells outside of a critical. However, according to the math, you can miss with the cantrips. MM hits, and you can miss with a couple of 4's in a row. Suddenly, you just did 3d4+3 damage in 3 rounds as your DPS. Conversely(inversely? I forget), yes, without MM, you can miss with ANY first spell, attack or save. In 3 rounds, you can do 0 damage. It's almost like you all assume that if you miss with WB, you do NO damage for the fight. What happened to the next two Firebolts? I cast Chromatic Orb, and miss. Don't ya'll cast Cantrip afterward anyway? In 3 rounds, WB-FB-FB is worst case two possible 1d10 fire damage and a first level spell slot, or 3d12 lightning damage with a possible crit on the first die. Once again, MM is gonna potentially blow this out of the water, but I thought we were talking about RISKY spells.

[OvisCaedo]

I think this is the first time I've seen someone argue in defense of witch bolt who didn't just realize they'd misunderstood it or had been playing with a houserule after their first response.

edit: also, you called it "upcastable", but I hope you know only the initial hit scales with upcasting, the damage each turn does not.

[Blood of Gaea]

Well, yes, the action is used if you wish to maintain it. If nothing needs to change, do a 1d12. The spell is basically an upcastable 1d12 lightning damage ranged magic attack with it's real only flaw: 30' range.
Are you trying to argue that a ranged spell attack 1d12 damage from a 1st level spot is good now? Chromatic Orb can do 3d8 lightning damage from the same slot.

This is getting ridiculous.

Do you not realize the first hit of Witch Bolt also takes a ranged spell attack roll? It's not guaranteed damage in any way.

[Yuroch Kern]

I think this is the first time I've seen someone argue in defense of witch bolt who didn't just realize they'd misunderstood it or had been playing with a houserule after their first response.

edit: also, you called it "upcastable", but I hope you know only the initial hit scales with upcasting, the damage each turn does not.

Yeah, it is an interesting spell with huge potential, but really does require planning. It is true that only the initial damage is upcastable, but it is also the only one with a probable crit. Makes actually upcasting it sorta attractive.

[Mellack]

Yeah, it is an interesting spell with huge potential, but really does require planning. It is true that only the initial damage is upcastable, but it is also the only one with a probable crit. Makes actually upcasting it sorta attractive.

Not sure how you reach that conclusion. WB cast at 3rd level does average of 19.5 damage. Chromatic Orb cast at 3rd level does average of 22.5 damage. Both take an attack roll, and both can crit. WB also takes your concentration, even if you decide not to hold it for the later rounds.

[lperkins2]

There's also the overdamage issue. At low levels, most monsters have 25ish hp. Assuming no one else in the party does any damage to the target, the most damage you can get out of a single target spell is 25. If you cast magic missile, followed by firebolt, you can split the damage up. Even under the best case circumstance, witchbolt is likely to waste a bunch of its damage.

Meanwhile, magic missile is great for finishing off injured weak monsters. For example, kobolds have 7hp, if you get 3 of them each that have taken a hit and are still up, a single MM is likely to finish them, which is very damage efficient.

[Yuroch Kern]

Are you trying to argue that a ranged spell attack 1d12 damage from a 1st level spot is good now? Chromatic Orb can do 3d8 lightning damage from the same slot.

This is getting ridiculous.

Do you not realize the first hit of Witch Bolt also takes a ranged spell attack roll? It's not guaranteed damage in any way.

Yep. Neither spell does damage if they miss. The power of WB is not the first hit. It's if you hit and are patient. CO is a great spell, but not everyone can afford that focus which is not covered by pouches or foci. As I have said, if you succeed in hitting, and the enemy doesn't stop you, it is a guaranteed 1d12 lightning damage per round. The first die has some support I believe from some class abilities, like draconic sorcerer (lightning) and twin spell metamagic, and can crit.

[Snowbluff]

You could save a lot of time by reading the spell and then saying "never".

You know the premise of a thread is good when a leveled spell is compared to a cantrip and is found wanting.

[Mellack]

if you succeed in hitting, and the enemy doesn't stop you,

That is part of what makes the spell so weak. It is generally pretty easy to stop you. It doesn't take a lot of smarts to look for cover when someone starts to continuously blast you, and that is exactly what stops the spell. Or if low level, that creature may have already dropped. It is not that reliable.

[Yuroch Kern]

Not sure how you reach that conclusion. WB cast at 3rd level does average of 19.5 damage. Chromatic Orb cast at 3rd level does average of 22.5 damage. Both take an attack roll, and both can crit. WB also takes your concentration, even if you decide not to hold it for the later rounds.

Yes. WB that hits does require the concentration if you wish to maintain it. CO is done after the attack roll resolves. WB, if successful, has the rider of more auto-damage on later rounds if the enemy is in range and you keep concentration. The rules state that if you are concentrating on a spell and you decide to cast another concentration spell, the previous one stops. If I decide to cast say Blur on round three, I do so. WB immediately ends because I also didn't maintain it. It simply means if I feel I don't think I need another concentration spell, then I don't cast it. WB is a damage over time spell. Over damage can happen, true, but I think this crowd has at some point rolled snake-eyes on a greatsword roll, or 5 damage on a 6 die Fireball. The math is great versus boss monsters, terrible against mooks. And don't forget CO has a shiny stealable required focus. Our DM didn't forget...

[Mellack]

It also means that if you already have a concentration spell going, casting WB would drop it, regardless of if you hit or miss. CO would not.

It appears your position is that it is good against only bosses, and only for the first few levels. That doesn't sound like a very good spell, especially when you only have a few.

[Yuroch Kern]

That is part of what makes the spell so weak. It is generally pretty easy to stop you. It doesn't take a lot of smarts to look for cover when someone starts to continuously blast you, and that is exactly what stops the spell. Or if low level, that creature may have already dropped. It is not that reliable.

I don't know, if you're gonna use that spell and you drop a foe, I think the spell worked. Also, most enemies usually expect a single blast. A spell that suddenly doesn't stop and forces them to flee out of melee might still be a successful spell, neh? It is the unwritten rider of the spell: OH CRAP! FIGHT OR FLIGHT! Weak? It's a first level spell. So...um, yeah?

[Yuroch Kern]

It also means that if you already have a concentration spell going, casting WB would drop it, regardless of if you hit or miss. CO would not.

Yes. WB is an advanced damage spell. But because of this, they force you to make the action economy decision...unless it happens to be your only concentration spell. Mage Armor and Shield are not concentration, for example, and FB is fine until you need to show them pain everlasting.

[Yuroch Kern]

It also means that if you already have a concentration spell going, casting WB would drop it, regardless of if you hit or miss. CO would not.

It appears your position is that it is good against only bosses, and only for the first few levels. That doesn't sound like a very good spell, especially when you only have a few.

Also true. Most peeps about here use things like Cantrips and rituals for EVERYTHING until the hammer falls. And Yeah, it's one of the reasons every caster can switch out spells. If you plan your levels, you will never really have useless spells. Kinda like keeping Fireball even though the party has been on the Plane of Fire for 3 levels...I've seen a lot.

[Yuroch Kern]

You know the premise of a thread is good when a leveled spell is compared to a cantrip and is found wanting.

I know, right? Your axiom is pretty cool too.

[Blood of Gaea]

Also true. Most peeps about here use things like Cantrips and rituals for EVERYTHING until the hammer falls.
Want some cornfields to go with that strawman?

[Yuroch Kern]

Want some cornfields to go with that strawman?

Nah, I prefer barley.

[DrKerosene]

My thoughts on this matter:

Witch Bolt seems better for a DM to use against new players. I imagine receiving multiple Witch Bolts would encourage getting a handle on movement distances (slow PCs may have to Dash to escape), forcing Concentration saves if they want to be aggressive, and line of effect stuff for ducking behind cover.

Killing a dozen CR 1/4 Apprentice Wizards won’t result in 600gp worth of diamond loot.

It’s entirely moot, but around a level 6 spell slot is when Witch Bolt might out do a Chromatic Orb for raw initial damage. Ignoring all the other complications of level 6 spells, this seems to only really make Witch Bolt slightly worse for a Warlock.

And three or four (goblin) Apprentice Wizards on an Ogre Howdah seems cool if they shoot lightning like the Star Wars Emperor.

Personally, I’d compare the spells to Ice Knife. You have a better range than Witch Bolt, it has a two different chances of doing any damage on the first round, and potentially does much better average damage in a “best case first round” use.

Ice Knife seems to suck a bit more when you compare teamwork options, like the Grave Cleric providing vulnerability to your level 4 Witch Bolt vs a level 4 Ice Knife.

[Yunru]

If we really want to be fair, we should compare it to something with Concentration. I suggest Hex.

So Witch Bolt does 1d12 and Firebolt does 1d10+1d6.

...
Not even going any further I know what I'd spend my 1st level spell slot and concentration on.

[Tanarii]

I think this is the first time I've seen someone argue in defense of witch bolt who didn't just realize they'd misunderstood it or had been playing with a houserule after their first response.
Same. Witch Bolt is usable in Tier 1 under very specific circumstances, if you understand its limitation. But there is always a better 1st level spell, and often even cantrips are superior because of longer range, or being a save (melee).

Even with the ability to be enhanced by Spell Sniper and Distant Spell doesn't really save it. And you can't even use it with True Strike for the least unlikely combo ever.

Despite all that, I've some players take it at low level because it's just so cool thematically. Of course they always swap it out as they gain levels, but Witch Bolt is hardly alone in that.


My thoughts on this matter:

Witch Bolt seems better for a DM to use against new players. I imagine receiving multiple Witch Bolts would encourage getting a handle on movement distances (slow PCs may have to Dash to escape), forcing Concentration saves if they want to be aggressive, and line of effect stuff for ducking behind cover.
Yeah. There are several spells which seem like they're more intended for DMs than players. I DM almost exclusively and even I don't think to look at them from that perspective. Otoh I don't use low level spellcasters much until mid tier 2, when I tend to use them as support for my tougher primary enemies. But for someone that wants a two bit bbeg at low levels who hides behind some bruisers launching lightning, it'd work.

[Silkensword]

In one of my games, I am playing an entirely overpowered character. The DM is allowing for ridiculously powerful characters.

Even with my lore wizard, with who I can make the range of the spell a mile and whose to-hit is +15, I cannot think of any way to make this spell more than 1d12 damage per round, at the cost of both my action and concentration. There just isn't a niche for this spell.

[Mellack]

Since math is in the title, lets do some math comparison. I will assume attacks hit on the first round as otherwise WB is useless, and a 60% hit chance for other attacks afterward. I am including critical chances in average DPR, and assuming WB is not broken via concentration or distance.

Witch Bolt.......................Total---------------Chromatic Orb + FB/EB............Total
Rnd 1 - 7.15 damage........7.15----------------Rnd 1 - 14.85 dmg................14.85
Rnd 2 - 6.5 damage..........13.65--------------Rnd 2 - 3.575 damage,,,,,,,,,,,,,18.425
Rnd 3 - 6.5 damage..........20.15--------------Rnd 3 - 3.575 damage.............22
Rnd 4 - 6.5 damage..........26.65--------------Rnd 4 - 3.575 damage.............25.575
Rnd 5 - 6.5 damage..........33.15--------------Rnd 5 - 3.575 damage.............29.15


So in a best case scenario, WB gets you more damage after 4 rounds at the cost of concentration, no option of damage type, and one-third the range.

[Tanarii]

I will assume attacks hit on the first round as otherwise WB is useless, and a 60% hit chance for other attacks afterward.
This assumption makes your math wrong.

The correct way to run the math is a 60% chance to hit times all the witch bolt damage, plus a 40% chance of (rounds-1) cantrip damage at 60% chance to hit for the dpr if you missed the initial WB attack.

If youre going round by round, each followup round should be 60%*1d12+40%*60%*5.5

[LudicSavant]

I will assume attacks hit on the first round as otherwise WB is useless

In order to arrive at the true expected value of Witch Bolt, you must account for the miss chance.

For the correct formula, see post #13.


This assumption makes your math wrong.

The correct way to run the math is a 60% chance to hit times all the witch bolt damage, plus a 40% chance of (rounds-1) cantrip damage at 60% chance to hit for the dpr if you missed the initial WB attack.

Shadow Monk'd!

[Mellack]

I was giving Witch Bolt its best possible showing. If it misses on the first round then it does nothing and the spell is lost, so I was considering that not worth discussing. All attack spells that miss and do nothing can be considered equal. I was attempting to prove that even giving it the best possible situation, it still is not a good spell. If you guys would like to work out the more complicated math to give it a more average condition, go at it.

[LudicSavant]

I was giving Witch Bolt its best possible showing. If it misses on the first round then it does nothing and the spell is lost, so I was considering that not worth discussing. All attack spells that miss and do nothing can be considered equal. I was attempting to prove that even giving it the best possible situation, it still is not a good spell. If you guys would like to work out the more complicated math to give it a more average condition, go at it.

Okay. So what you're saying is that even if it succeeds (which is by no means guaranteed), the reward for success is still poor. And yeah, that's true.

[Rebonack]

Yes. WB is an advanced damage spell. But because of this, they force you to make the action economy decision...unless it happens to be your only concentration spell. Mage Armor and Shield are not concentration, for example, and FB is fine until you need to show them pain everlasting.

It's not stupid, it's advanced!

Since we're assuming that our target is silly enough to stand in range we should compare three rounds of actions spent in Witchbolt vs a cast if Bonfire followed by two Firebolts.

The latter out performs the former by a wide margin and doesn't use a leveled slot.

[CantigThimble]

Situations in which witch bolt is worth knowing/preparing:
-You are a high level tempest cleric/mage who wants to do massive single target damage with a maximized upcast.
-A highly contrived scenario in which you can land one attack roll, but afterwards the target's ac will improve dramatically, but they'll be unable to move out of sight ever.

Situations in which witch bolt isn't worth it:
-The rest of the time.

If you really want to have a cool Sith Lord spell, then make an alternate version of witch bolt at like 2nd or 3rd level that also significantly reduces the target's speed while maintained. It would be more in flavor and actually be useful.

[Rallek25]

Just thought of something and figured I'd throw it out there and see.
So I know Chromatic Orb and Witch Bolt have been compared, but they haven't been compared at higher levels necessarily. At 4th lvl Chromatic Orb does 6d8 and Witch Bolt does 4d12. At 4th they can be a max of 48 damage and at 5th the max damage is 56 for Chromatic orb and 60 for Witch bolt. Now I know it's not the best thing to upcast a 1st lvl spell that high but the initial damage does breakthrough at that point.
Also, just a thought but hypothetically couldn't one perhaps be a Tempest Cleric 6/ Draconic sorcerer 6 and cast witch bolt at a 5th level and channel divinity to max damage it out to 60 and then add charisma modifier for DS. Then on the next turn you rechannel the attack to do 1d12+Cha mod and then drop concentration to then quicken spell another witch Bolt cast at 5th level and once again channel divinity for max damage making it 120 damage + 1d12+ Charisma mod + charisma modifier.
Would this make Witch bolt a viable option then???

[Blood of Gaea]

Would this make Witch bolt a viable option then???
No, because 4th level spells have amazing options, like Watery Sphere, Polymorph, Evard's Black Tentacles, and Sickening Radiance.

It's even worse here than as a 1st level slot.

[LudicSavant]

Just thought of something and figured I'd throw it out there and see.
So I know Chromatic Orb and Witch Bolt have been compared, but they haven't been compared at higher levels necessarily. At 4th lvl Chromatic Orb does 6d8 and Witch Bolt does 4d12. At 4th they can be a max of 48 damage and at 5th the max damage is 56 for Chromatic orb and 60 for Witch bolt. Now I know it's not the best thing to upcast a 1st lvl spell that high but the initial damage does breakthrough at that point.
Also, just a thought but hypothetically couldn't one perhaps be a Tempest Cleric 6/ Draconic sorcerer 6 and cast witch bolt at a 5th level and channel divinity to max damage it out to 60 and then add charisma modifier for DS. Then on the next turn you rechannel the attack to do 1d12+Cha mod and then drop concentration to then quicken spell another witch Bolt cast at 5th level and once again channel divinity for max damage making it 120 damage + 1d12+ Charisma mod + charisma modifier.
Would this make Witch bolt a viable option then???

Not really, no.

That 60+Cha damage from your upcast spell slot? A Lightning Bolt from the same slot will do that, except as an AoE that doesn't require Concentration, has a longer range, and does half of the damage even if the enemy saves.

That action you spent maintaining the Witch Bolt? Any attack cantrip would have been better, since they've all scaled up to 3 dice by this point.

Not to mention that the build itself is sacrificing an awful lot of power (such as by only knowing 3rd level spells when other casters know 6th level ones, being behind on ASIs, etc).

[Jerrykhor]

Just thought of something and figured I'd throw it out there and see.
So I know Chromatic Orb and Witch Bolt have been compared, but they haven't been compared at higher levels necessarily. At 4th lvl Chromatic Orb does 6d8 and Witch Bolt does 4d12. At 4th they can be a max of 48 damage and at 5th the max damage is 56 for Chromatic orb and 60 for Witch bolt. Now I know it's not the best thing to upcast a 1st lvl spell that high but the initial damage does breakthrough at that point.
Also, just a thought but hypothetically couldn't one perhaps be a Tempest Cleric 6/ Draconic sorcerer 6 and cast witch bolt at a 5th level and channel divinity to max damage it out to 60 and then add charisma modifier for DS. Then on the next turn you rechannel the attack to do 1d12+Cha mod and then drop concentration to then quicken spell another witch Bolt cast at 5th level and once again channel divinity for max damage making it 120 damage + 1d12+ Charisma mod + charisma modifier.
Would this make Witch bolt a viable option then???

I've heard of that gimmick before, its for people who like to live on the edge. If you dont mind the possibility of wasting 5th level slots, then sure go ahead, its decent enough for nova on bosses.

[Merudo]

This assumption makes your math wrong.

The correct way to run the math is a 60% chance to hit times all the witch bolt damage, plus a 40% chance of (rounds-1) cantrip damage at 60% chance to hit for the dpr if you missed the initial WB attack.

If youre going round by round, each followup round should be 60%*1d12+40%*60%*5.5

No, his math is good.

When the first attack misses, it doesn't matter if Chromatic Orb or Witch Bolt was casted - in both cases, the spellcaster will use Fire Bolt in the following rounds.

Hence, only the case where the first attack lands need to be studied to compare Chromatic Orb and Witch Bolt.

[Tanarii]

No, his math is good.

When the first attack misses, it doesn't matter if Chromatic Orb or Witch Bolt was casted - in both cases, the spellcaster will use Fire Bolt in the following rounds.

Hence, only the case where the first attack lands need to be studied to compare Chromatic Orb and Witch Bolt.Witch bolt in the following rounds depends on the first round. You're getting a meaningless number out by ignoring hit rate. It's neither DPR (damage per round) nor DPS (damage per spell) nor DPH (damage per Hit). A number without meaning that varies from round to round isn't useful.

[Chronos]

It's still valid if all you're doing is comparing the two options to see which is better. In the case where the initial attack misses, since both options are the same, that case will never effect which is better.

But if you want to be thorough about it: Witch Bolt's total damage after d rounds, with an h probability of hitting, is equal to W = h*6.5*d + (1-h)*h*5.5*(d-1). Chromatic Orb's total damage after d rounds, with an h probability of hitting, is equal to C = h*13.5 + h*5.5*(d-1). In order to find the value of d where W surpasses C, we set W = C:

h*6.5*d + (1-h)*h*5.5*(d-1) = h*13.5 + h*5.5*(d-1)
Divide both sides by h:
6.5*d + (1-h)*5.5*(d-1) = 13.5 + 5.5*(d-1)
Subtract 5.5*(d-1) from both sides:
6.5*d -h*5.5*(d-1) = 13.5
Subtract h*5.5 from both sides:
6.5*d -h*5.5*d = 13.5 - h*5.5
Divide both sides by (6.5-h*5.5):
d = (13.5 - h*5.5)/(6.5 - h*5.5)

The best result, for Witch Bolt, comes when h, the probability of hitting, is very low, and that still requires over two rounds (in other words, Witch Bolt only pulls ahead on the third round). But of course, in that case, you should probably be using some other spell entirely, like Magic Missile or something that requires a save, instead of either Witch Bolt or Chromatic Orb. The worst result, when h is close to 1, requires as many as 8 rounds for Witch Bolt to pull ahead.

What if we're upcasting to a 2nd-level slot? In that case, W = h*6.5*d + (1-h)*h*5.5*(d-1) + h*6.5 and C = h*17 + h*5.5*(d-1) . Solving it out, that comes to
6.5*d + (1-h)*5.5*(d-1) + 6.5 = 17 + 5.5*(d-1)
6.5*d + (1-h)*5.5*(d-1) = 10.5 + 5.5*(d-1)
d = (10.5 - h*5.5)/(6.5 - h*5.5)

This is a little better: Now, as long as the chance to hit is 45% or lower, Witch Bolt is (slightly) ahead after 2 rounds, and even with high chance to hit, it never takes more than 5 rounds.

But 45% chance to hit is still pretty low. If your chance is that low, then Magic Missile is a much better comparison than Chromatic Orb. So let's look at Witch Bolt vs. Magic Missile plus firebolts:

I'm getting tired of this, so let's just jump to the 2nd-level slot calculations (which are more favorable to Witch Bolt). As before, W = h*6.5*d + (1-h)*h*5.5*(d-1) + h*6.5 , and M = 14 + h*5.5*(d-1) .
6.5*d + (1-h)*5.5*(d-1) = 14/h - 6.5 + 5.5*(d-1)
6.5*d - h*5.5*(d-1) = 14/h - 6.5
d*(6.5 - h*5.5) = 14/h - 6.5 -h*5.5
d = (14/h - 6.5 - h*5.5) / (6.5 - h*5.5)

This one is less straightforward to solve: In the h -> 0 limit, Magic Missile is clearly superior at all durations. When h = 0.5 (i.e., a 50% chance of hitting), it takes Witch Bolt exactly 5 rounds to match Magic Missile. At h = 0.8 (when Chromatic Orb passes up Magic Missile in expected damage), Witch Bolt still lags behind at anything less than 4 rounds.

I shan't even bother with the detailed calculations for a 3rd-level slot, because by then, Firebolt is doing 2d10 per shot, and so if h is at least 0.6, it's impossible for Witch Bolt to ever catch up, no matter how many rounds you give it (and even where h < 0.6, where it's possible, it takes a really long time).

TL;DR: If you expect to be able to maintain Witch Bolt for at least four rounds, and you're 3rd or 4th level and using a second-level slot, and you have at least an 80% chance to hit, then Witch Bolt is a good choice. In almost all other circumstances, it's better to use either Magic Missile (if your chance to hit is low) or Chromatic Orb (if your chance to hit is high).

[Son of A Lich!]

I think the spell was designed for villains to cast, and shouldn't be looked at too closely by players.

Lets say a Goblin Hovel has a mid-level Warlock leading them. With a party of 5 level 6 characters, in cramped spaces, and an inexhaustible number of Goblins, it could Make sense to use witch bolt on the fighter and thereby force him to wade through to the warlock to break concentration or flee to get out of the 30 ft range.

I think we can concede the fact that the spell is easy enough to break, yeah? Its unusual for a non-magic response to be spelt out as an option for something the players are supposed to be using - Typically, if you have a de-buff spell, it will be fixed by a spell slot. Otherwise, it has concentration, so that the party can force the spell caster to drop it. The stay-in-range/Stay-in-sight clause are two responses that any mundane character can take to break it without having a ranged attack to force the concentration check.

...

That being said, It's still a terrible spell even in the hands of a Villain who can reasonably expect a Meat Shield, A Wizard, Cleric and Thief. Sure, you can cast it on the Meat shield and swarm him with lil'ns to keep him at bay but if you roll initiative, the villain is almost certainly dead in three rounds. The Damage isn't enough to threaten players without a reliable source of damage from other participants (Like, say, 5 goblins flanking a Barbarian but not having the attack bonus to reliably hit said barbarian or magic damage to surpass his Resistance). It could tip the DPR in your favor but... for reasons pointed out here, in this thread, it would still be better for our hypothetical warlock to be bombarding him with Eldritch Blasts... which double the chances to hit, do better granular damage and have the option of adding Chr to the damage roll.

G'damn Witchbolt... who did you piss off on the Dev team?

...

So, lets make a hypothetical Lich Bolt. Like Witch Bolt, it does 1d12 but it does not have concentration. It only lasts for three rounds, but takes your bonus action to 'Maintain' the damage and you can't target someone with the bolt on them already. When you Maintain the Lich Bolt, all targets that have been hit by it take the damage. We keep the Range Limitation, but increase it to 60ft, and remove the LOS limitation. All Damage scales, not just the initial dealing

So, round one - SoaL casts Lich Bolt on Snowbluff the Paladin for 1d12. With his Bonus action SoaL can maintain the spell, dealing 1d12 damage.

Round two - SoaL casts Lich Bolt on WillieTheDuck the Ranger for 1d12. With his Bonus Action SoaL can Maintain Lich Bolt and deal 1d12 to Willie and Snowbluff.

Round three - Soal can cast Magic Missile on Snowbluff for 1d10. With his bonus action, he maintains Lichbolt and deals 1d12 to Willie and Snowbluff.

Round four - Snowbluff's Lich Bolt drops. If SoaL Maintains it, Willie would take 1d12.

This would give spell casters something to do with their bonus actions, would allow them to stack damage up passively, gives the players a chance to break the spell while still allowing juggling of more effective spell slots. It still favors Villains in the sense that Villains have to be mindful of the action economy and minions aren't typically worth it to cast on because they'd probably die in a round regardless. The Villain can reliably know that the Fighter is likely going to be in range and stay in range.

Then it's just a matter of scaling the damage so that Warlocks don't break it in twine at higher levels... although, they only have a few chances to cast it in a round... so... probably not. Maybe an invocation to cast it at will but as a first level spell slot or something? A super cantrip invocation like Disguise Self?



I dunno, I think Witch bolt is an interesting case study of the design of 5e.

[DrKerosene]

Another reason Witch Bolt is for villains? Heal your Flesh Golem with it.


If we really want to be fair, we should compare it to something with Concentration. I suggest Hex.

So Witch Bolt does 1d12 and Firebolt does 1d10+1d6.

...
Not even going any further I know what I'd spend my 1st level spell slot and concentration on.

I feel like using Hex begs for Eldritch Blast to be used. Maybe Moonbeam is more comparable since you can spend your action (or readied action) to move the spell around.