Advice on a duel (Post 9 updated with results)

[J-H]

My players in the Castlevania game decided to challenge the pack lord to a duel. It'll end up 2v1 unless they really diplomance well.

I ran a couple of by-the-numbers simulations, ignoring crits, for the two most likely participants.

Werewolf, Pack Lord CR 8 (equipped)
Size Medium (but Powerful Build)
AC 17 (Natural Armor 2 + dex 2 + shield+1 3)
HP: 110
Speed 40’
STR 20 (+5) DEX 15 (+2) CON 18(+4) INT 13(+1) WIS 12 (+1) CHA 14 (+2)
Saves: Cha +5, Con +7
Skills: Perception +6, advantage on smell & hearing checks
Damage resistance: Non-magical weapons that aren’t silvered
Multiattack: 2 axe attacks + bite
Returning Greataxe +8/+8 to hit, 1d12+5 damage
Bite: +8 to hit, 1d8+5 damage; If claws hit, advantage on bite attack roll; curse
Or
Ranged Returning weapon +8 (disadvantage beyond 30’, max range 60’) for same damage. Functions only once per round.
Powerful Build: Advantage when rolling against grappling, shoving, etc.; Able to wield a heavy weapon in one hand
Loot:
Returning Greataxe: functions as base weapon, but is magical; can be thrown and returns once per round. Also allows bearer to always know which way is north.
Shield +1

Dmitri: +6 to hit, with advantage if reckless; 4th level mountain dwarf barbarian zealot
AC 16, enemies get advantage if reckless
1d10 (2 handed longsword) silver +4 str +2 rage +1d6+2 radiant
HP 49, DR 50% physical damage while raging
Chance to hit pack lord 40% (12 or better); + 40% of the 60% miss = total 64% to hit
Damage 5.5+4+2+2+3.5 = 17
Damage per round 17 x .64 = 10.88

Tib: +6 to hit (half-orc conquest? paladin)
AC 18
1d12 (silvered lance) + 4; +2d8 on smite
Chance to hit pack lord 40% (12 or better)
Damage per round 7.5+4 = 11.5 x .4 = 4.6; add 9 for 3 rounds of smite.
Drops to disadvantage at 5’ range for 40% of 40% = 16%
In which case, greataxe for 11.5 x .5 = 6 damage

Pack lord to-hit:
Chance to hit Dmitri: 60%+60% of 40% = 84%
Damage vs Dmitri:
Greataxe 84% 11.5 damage x 50% = 6 x .84 = 5
Greataxe 84% 11.5 damage x 50% = 6 x .84 = 5
Bite 84% 9.5 damage x 50% = 5 x .84 = 4

Total DPR: 14

Chance to hit Tib: 50%
Damage vs Tib:
Greataxe 50% 11.5 damage x .5 = 6
Greataxe 50% 11.5 damage x .5 = 6
Bite 50% 9.5 damage x .5 = 5
Total DPR = 17

Round 0:
Free thrown axe attack (1) vs Dmitri for 5 damage
Rounds 1+2
Pack lord deals 28hp damage to Dmitri
Tib deals 18 damage including 1 smite going off
Dmitri deals 22 damage

Rounds 3+4
Pack lord deals 28hp damage to Dmitri
Tib deals 18 damage including 1 smite going off
Dmitri deals 22 damage

Results after 4 rounds: Dmitri has taken 61hp damage out of 49 and is at 0
Pack lord has taken 80 points of damage and is at 35%HP

Round 5+6:
Tib deals 12 damage + 9 for 1 smite = 21; pack lord is now at 9 hp
Tib sustains 56hp damage and is knocked out.

Results: Close win for pack lord. Confounding factors: Buffs; critical hits (Pack lord 3 chances per round; Party 3 chances per round)
Tib has already used his 1/long rest “recover from 0hp to 1hp” racial feature.


If I reduce the pack lord's AC by 1, here's what I get:

Revised test:

Dmitri: +6 to hit, with advantage if reckless
AC 16, enemies get advantage if reckless
1d10 (2 handed longsword) silver +4 str +2 rage +1d6+2 radiant
HP 49, DR 50% physical damage while raging
Chance to hit pack lord 50% (11 or better); + 50% of the 50% miss = total 75% to hit
Damage 5.5+4+2+2+3.5 = 17
Damage per round 17 x .75 = 12.75

Tib: +6 to hit (?)
AC 18
1d12 (silvered lance) + 4; +2d8 on smite
Chance to hit pack lord 50% (11 or better)
Damage per round 7.5+4 = 11.5 x .5 = 5.75; add 9 for 2 rounds of smite.
Drops to disadvantage at 5’ range for 50% of 50% = 25%
In which case, greataxe for 11.5 x .45 = 6 damage

Round 0:
Free thrown axe attack (1) vs Dmitri for 5 damage

Rounds 1+2+3+4
Pack lord deals 14x4 = 56 hp damage to Dmitri, bringing him down
Tib deals 5.75x4+18 damage including 2 smites going off = 41hp
Dmitri deals 12.75 x 4 = 51hp

Result
Dmitri at 0
Pack lord at 18hp
Tib still up.

---------
I think I like the tougher (AC 18) duel better... I expect the players to have some rabbit to pull out that I'm not expecting. I don't mind knocking one or both to 0... and in fact the pack lord could split his attacks each round, which lets them stay up longer. Am I off-base and setting up something too unfair?

[Quoz]

No plan survives contact with PCs.

I commend you for planning this out to try and balance the fight. I would possibly put in some interactive terrain elements (Tables for high ground, a large fireplace for potential damage, windows letting in moonlight that can be closed to debuff the enemy, ect) to spice up the fight.

Off the top of my head there are a few interesting ideas I would do as a player. "Ready an action to catch the axe when he throws it" would be one. A raging barbarian in a 2 on 1 fight can do a lot worse than grapple and knock prone. And any conquest paladin worth their salt will have Wrathful Smite prepared, which will probably wreck said werewolf's day. All of which are great tactics and should be rewarded if used. I would also expect any other party members to try to assist indirectly - but being PCs, they likely won't be too subtle about it.

[Chronos]

Wait, it's 2 vs. 1 in the party's favor, unless they diplomance well? As in, if they diplomance well, it'll be 1 on 1? As in, diplomacy would make things worse for the party?

Also, are there any other party members who might be casting buffs on those two, while "not participating" in the duel? Or, for that matter, does the werewolf have any spellcaster allies who might do the same?

[Corran]

I think I like the tougher (AC 18) duel better... I expect the players to have some rabbit to pull out that I'm not expecting. I don't mind knocking one or both to 0... and in fact the pack lord could split his attacks each round, which lets them stay up longer. Am I off-base and setting up something too unfair?
Players have some choices to make, and not knowing for certain what their choices will be, makes predicting the outcome of the fight a very risky affair. Sticking a wrarthful smite on the werewolf (even if it takes two turns to do so), allows the paladin to keep distance so that they can keep using the silvered lance, allows the barbarian to tank the incoming damage since they will be the only target within the werewolf's reach (no reckless attack obviously, as the incoming damage is greater than the barb's damage output; lay on hands in one action when the barb has taken 20 or more damage - healing plays well with the barb's resistances too). Something like this makes the fight easier. Similarly, the werewolf could focus on the paladin (close in to make the paladin change from a lance to the greataxe) just enough to make the paladin spend their lay on hands on themselves, then immediately changing focus and focusing on the barbarian who is the one who can deliver more damage partly due to their silvered weapon.

Now, assuming a more typical behavior on behalf of the players (barbarian uses reckless attack, paladin uses all slots to smite and will use lay on hands on the barbarian in one go -so focus the barbarian slightly more-, and werewolf closes in on the paladin after the paladin landed one successful lance attack -guided strike- on their first round), then after the first 3 rounds of combat (and under the assumption that the werewolf splits his attacks -one greataxe attack at each of the pc's, the bite attack on the barbarian), it looks like this:

The werewolf will have taken about 55 damage, which would put him at exactly half. So werewolf is at 55 HP.
The barbarian will have taken about 28 damage (one greataxe attack and one bite each turn), which would put him at 21 hp, and back to 41 hp with a lay on hands.
The paladin will have taken about 19 damage (one greataxe attack each turn), which will put him at ? (don't know Tib's HP). Tib has spent one smite (2 slots remaining) and one turn to lay on hands.
There is a very good chance that it will take 3 more turns on average for the pc's to bring the werewolf down, even if one of them drops as early as in the 5th round. During these 3 turns the werewolf can do (assuming he sticks to the same pattern of attacking), another 28 damage to the barbarian, putting him down to 13 hp, and another 19 damage to the paladin (so Tib has taken 38 damage so far and that means that he probably drops if the werewolf gets a turn at the sixth round).

So, I'd say that AC 18 is enough to make it a very close fight (that could swing either way depending on how the dice will behave that day). All that assuming the players don't do sth that can significantly tip the odds in their favor. If they do, play the werewolf smarter, making him focus damage instead of splitting it. If they don't, and you want to make it easier, have the werewolf split his attacks. An even better split than what I assumed, is to have the werewolf do two greataxe attacks on the barbarian and one bite attack on the paladin, until at least the paladin lay on hands the barbarian, then you can change to splitting the greataxe attacks and use the bite on the barbarian.

[J-H]

Off the top of my head there are a few interesting ideas I would do as a player. "Ready an action to catch the axe when he throws it" would be one. A raging barbarian in a 2 on 1 fight can do a lot worse than grapple and knock prone. And any conquest paladin worth their salt will have Wrathful Smite prepared, which will probably wreck said werewolf's day. All of which are great tactics and should be rewarded if used. I would also expect any other party members to try to assist indirectly - but being PCs, they likely won't be too subtle about it.

It's going to be an open battle type thing outside the werewolf village with the wolves covering about 2/3 of the perimeter of the designated area (probably about 70'x40') and the party on the rest... and yes, there are two party members that I expect will do "something". I don't know whether it'll be "sneak off to try to loot during the battle" or "I sneak-attack the werewolf with my whip while its back is turned."

I wasn't aware of Wrathful Smite...so far he's just used his spell slots to fuel regular smites.


Wait, it's 2 vs. 1 in the party's favor, unless they diplomance well? As in, if they diplomance well, it'll be 1 on 1? As in, diplomacy would make things worse for the party?

Also, are there any other party members who might be casting buffs on those two, while "not participating" in the duel? Or, for that matter, does the werewolf
have any spellcaster allies who might do the same?
2 vs 1 in the party's favor unless they can argue to bring it up to 3 to 1. The 3rd would be a halfling Battlemaster fighter who's preferred tactic so far has been using throwing weapons. I think 3v1 is too in the party's favor though.
They'll be warned that any spellcasting will be matched in kind; the shamans cast as druids, including (demonstrated) at least one use of Slow each. They also used Heat Metal on the paladin in the first battle, dropping him to 0 because he wouldn't drop his silver lance.


Players have some choices to make, and not knowing for certain what their choices will be, makes predicting the outcome of the fight a very risky affair. Sticking a wrarthful smite on the werewolf (even if it takes two turns to do so), allows the paladin to keep distance so that they can keep using the silvered lance, allows the barbarian to tank the incoming damage since they will be the only target within the werewolf's reach (no reckless attack obviously, as the incoming damage is greater than the barb's damage output; lay on hands in one action when the barb has taken 20 or more damage - healing plays well with the barb's resistances too). Something like this makes the fight easier. Similarly, the werewolf could focus on the paladin (close in to make the paladin change from a lance to the greataxe) just enough to make the paladin spend their lay on hands on themselves, then immediately changing focus and focusing on the barbarian who is the one who can deliver more damage partly due to their silvered weapon.

Now, assuming a more typical behavior on behalf of the players (barbarian uses reckless attack, paladin uses all slots to smite and will use lay on hands on the barbarian in one go -so focus the barbarian slightly more-, and werewolf closes in on the paladin after the paladin landed one successful lance attack -guided strike- on their first round), then after the first 3 rounds of combat (and under the assumption that the werewolf splits his attacks -one greataxe attack at each of the pc's, the bite attack on the barbarian), it looks like this:

The werewolf will have taken about 55 damage, which would put him at exactly half. So werewolf is at 55 HP.
The barbarian will have taken about 28 damage (one greataxe attack and one bite each turn), which would put him at 21 hp, and back to 41 hp with a lay on hands.
The paladin will have taken about 19 damage (one greataxe attack each turn), which will put him at ? (don't know Tib's HP). Tib has spent one smite (2 slots remaining) and one turn to lay on hands.
There is a very good chance that it will take 3 more turns on average for the pc's to bring the werewolf down, even if one of them drops as early as in the 5th round. During these 3 turns the werewolf can do (assuming he sticks to the same pattern of attacking), another 28 damage to the barbarian, putting him down to 13 hp, and another 19 damage to the paladin (so Tib has taken 38 damage so far and that means that he probably drops if the werewolf gets a turn at the sixth round).

So, I'd say that AC 18 is enough to make it a very close fight (that could swing either way depending on how the dice will behave that day). All that assuming the players don't do sth that can significantly tip the odds in their favor. If they do, play the werewolf smarter, making him focus damage instead of splitting it. If they don't, and you want to make it easier, have the werewolf split his attacks. An even better split than what I assumed, is to have the werewolf do two greataxe attacks on the barbarian and one bite attack on the paladin, until at least the paladin lay on hands the barbarian, then you can change to splitting the greataxe attacks and use the bite on the barbarian.
Thanks. I had not thought about the use of Lay on Hands (hasn't been used yet, even by the Paladin when he was dropped). I think it's definitely going to be 2v1 with AC18 then.

They can also flank the wolf with two squares in between them; he can choose between taking full hits from the lance while focusing the barbarian, or taking an AOO to step into melee with the paladin (causing Paladin disadvantage). Movement tactics can help the PCs here also.

Are there rules for catching a thrown weapon? It'll probably only be thrown the one time, and that'll be a nice "surprise!" moment for the group.

[Corran]

Are there rules for catching a thrown weapon? It'll probably only be thrown the one time, and that'll be a nice "surprise!" moment for the group.
I don't know of any. The only thing that comes to mind is the deflect missiles monk feature. I guess one way to go about it is to describe the scene. For example, the werewolf throws his axe, and (especially if it's a miss; even if not, hp is a very abstract concept), you could describe the scene as the target of the attack manages to catch the weapon. Only for the werewolf to recall it back on his hands next round, to everyone's surprise.

[Sparky McDibben]

Duels can get tricky. Without something happening to raise the stakes or just break up the monotony, it can devolve into repetitive attacks. I recommend using dynamic terrain elements to force movement and some degree of tactics.

[Chronos]

Obviously the wolves aren't going to like it if they catch the other party members casting spells. If they catch them.

My default assumption is that a D&D party going into a "fair fight" is always going to try to cheat if they think they can get away with it, and so will most enemies.

[NatureKing]

Duels can get tricky. Without something happening to raise the stakes or just break up the monotony, it can devolve into repetitive attacks. I recommend using dynamic terrain elements to force movement and some degree of tactics.

Give the pack lord a benefit for making an attack after moving in a straight line for longer than half movement. I. E 60ft move speed, if he attacks after moving 40ft, he gets +XdY damage, and creates condition on a failed save. Have it target something the players have a high chance of passing (say Strength) but with a high ish DC.

Means he triggers opportunity attacks, so that Reactions are not wasted action economy, and has a dynamic fight so its not 'move in range, attack attack attack'. When the terrain is in play, you can cause the pack lord to require Athletics checks to ignore the terrain or else the charge attack falters and he gets no bonus. This can lead to the party attempting some clever positioning and adopting new tactics like Readying Attacks etc.

[J-H]

Here's how the fight went down:

We start off with the duel against the pack lord.
(“Svalbard” Werewolf, Pack Lord CR 8 (equipped)
Size Medium (but Powerful Build)
AC 18 (Breastplate + dex 2 + shield 2)
HP: 110
Speed 40’
STR 20 (+5) DEX 15 (+2) CON 18(+4) INT 13(+1) WIS 12 (+1) CHA 14 (+2)
Saves: Cha +5, Con +7
Skills: Perception +6, advantage on smell & hearing checks
Damage resistance: Non-magical weapons that aren’t silvered
Multiattack: 2 axe attacks + bite
Returning Greataxe +8/+8 to hit, 1d12+5 damage plus
Bite: +8 to hit, 1d8+5 damage; If claws hit, advantage on bite attack roll; curse or
Ranged Returning weapon +8 (disadvantage beyond 30’, max range 60’) for same damage. Functions 1/round
Powerful Build: Advantage when rolling against grappling, shoving, etc.; Able to wield a heavy weapon in one hand
Loot:
Returning Greataxe: functions as base weapon, but is magical; can be thrown and returns once per round. Also allows bearer to always know which way is north.
Breastplate of Fire Resistance.

I gave the party some time to figure out if they wanted to switch gear around or do anything else as they travel through the woods, and they did not (they later realized that they could have tried to sneak in a casting of Bless, or moved healing potions around). The paladin also blew half of his Lay on Hands topping up Dmitri instead of having the cleric spend a spell slot.

Deep voice, broad open stance. “I shall show these young ones what a true battle is like – not some capped-claw spar!” You see a big werewolf, probably close to seven feet tall. His shoulders are broad and well-muscled, and his grey-tinged brown fur carries several white streaks marking old scars, including one that crosses his left eye, which seems to have a permanent squint. He carries a greataxe in one hand and a shield in the other, and is also wearing an orange-tinted breastplate. “If I triumph, you will see how to fight against greater numbers instead of as the hunters. If I fall, you will see how others may hunt you, and learn in turn that you might live and grow stronger.”

The rest of the party takes seats along one edge of the arena, while Tib (HOrc Paladin) and Dmitri (Dwarf Zealot Barbarian) enter the arena and introduce themselves. Svalbard’s initial axe throw catches them by surprise, as they’re just out of range after their first moves. He gets one more throw in before they close to melee. The combatants also figure out that the silver weapons they are using are “just” normal damage (weaker werewolves). Svalbard taunts them some and calls out instructional moments to the werewolf juveniles watching:

“Always prepare at least one surprise.”
“A true warrior uses not only his muscle, but his speed and his mind. Watch as they try to flank me, and as I in turn try to outmaneuver-them.”
“Find the weakest enemy; single him out and kill him first!”
“See, he moves to protect the weaker one and distract me. They fight not as individuals, but as part of a pack.”

There’s some moving around and attacks of opportunity on both sides. Tib’s weapon is a silver lance, so he is trying to stay at 10' away.

Dmitri gets dropped to 0 despite his resistance. Tib moves in and heals him, and the damage mounts on both sides. Dmitri gets dropped again (having started the fight with only one Rage). Svalbard has 10 hit points left and plays cautious, moving back and throwing his axe. He drops Tib to -4, but then another player remembers that Tib is a Half Orc and can instead be dropped to just 1. Tib gets to go, then Svalbard goes again and would likely kill him with his 3-attack routine. I point out to the party that “If you’re going to cheat, now’s the time.” They don’t seem to figure out a way to do so, and Tib moves forwards to attack… he hits, and does exactly 11 damage, defeating Svalbard.

At the end of the combat, there is exactly 1 hit point left on the field between three combatants.

The group loots the body and moves away from the village to rest. The dice are kind and they are undisturbed. During discussion of “who gets the Breastplate of Fire Resistance,” we determine that:
-Tib is wearing full plate armor despite it not being in his starting gear, and his AC should have been two points lower.
-Tib had Great Weapon Master and could have re-rolled at least 3 “1 or 2” rolls with his 1d12 lance during the duel.
Oooops.
Fixed. Tib’s player doesn’t keep track of the details very well.
I was also reading Xanathar's earlier today and found that he could have used his Channel Divinity to add +10 to one attack.

Overall, I'm extremely pleased with how the duel went down. It was an incredible tight and tense battle! Player resource use/consumption/use of character abilities was definitely a factor that hurt them, but they made it out alive and I think the loot was worth it.

I had my phone playing a long 'battle drums' track from Warframe during most of the fight.