The Kobolt Oracle?

[ChaosSlayer]

The character of Kobolt Oracle has always been very interesting to me.
I mean this guy knows everything in advance - at least glimpses of it.
Because of that there are very few things that scare him - I mean he can predict his own death and have Wiz+Cleric show up just on time to resurrect him.

However, he intentionally skipped the meeting with Xykon.
Per Oracle himself "The guy is freaken scary!".
He scared of him so much, that he doesn't even want to prepare for potential death and rez, he just wants to avoid him completely!
Considering that Oracle knows A LOT in advance, he must know something about Xykon that he doesn't even want to EVER meet him, even with Wiz+Cleric team standing by.
It also hints at: Oracle doesn't have any good news for Xykon.

What do you guys think?

[Reboot]

Or, alternatively, he knew he wouldn't be there. So he fulfilled his own prophecy by being elsewhere.

PS: Kobold, not Kobolt.

[hamishspence]

PPS: Kobold, not Kobald. :smallbiggrin:

[hroþila]

I'm not sure how this works. I mean, it does look like fate is fixed (no preventing the Oracle's prophecies from becoming true) and it doesn't look like the Oracle can see things that won't actually happen, i.e. he can't foresee Xykon killing him in a way that a Resurrect spell can undo and thus decide to not be there, because in that case the temporal line wouldn't feature Xykon killing him and he wouldn't have been able to foresee it. How much agency he has is an insoluble metaphysical problem that has troubled philosophers and theologians for millennia, so the message board of a stick figure comic is unlikely to provide a satisfactory answer.

So let's just say that it be like that sometimes.

[Riftwolf]

He might have read Start of Darkness and saw Xykon had Trap the Soul. That's a tough one to get around.

[Fyraltari]

Or Xykon torturing people, making their zombified corpes eat their loved ones and all the other horrific **** he commits on an hourly basis.

[Roland Itiative]

I'm not sure how this works. I mean, it does look like fate is fixed (no preventing the Oracle's prophecies from becoming true) and it doesn't look like the Oracle can see things that won't actually happen, i.e. he can't foresee Xykon killing him in a way that a Resurrect spell can undo and thus decide to not be there, because in that case the temporal line wouldn't feature Xykon killing him and he wouldn't have been able to foresee it. How much agency he has is an insoluble metaphysical problem that has troubled philosophers and theologians for millennia, so the message board of a stick figure comic is unlikely to provide a satisfactory answer.

So let's just say that it be like that sometimes.

That can get a little messy. We know for sure the oracle DOES prepare in advance for things he foresees (both making his land officially a city just to punish Belkar, and paying in advance for a resurrection). So either he can somewhat manipulate the outcome, or he already foresees the actions he would take if he could hypothetically see what would happen without said foresight (which is kinda brain-twisty).

In both cases, him avoiding Xykon because he knows Xykon would make him suffer in a fashion there's no recovery from makes sense. He either saw he would avoid Xykon to save his own behind, and followed the "script", or he saw Xykon imprisoning his soul/making him into a zombie/whatever, and acted to change that future.

[Fyraltari]

Or maybe he foresaw Xykon coming to the Sunken Valley but not their meeting and decided not to be there that particular day because the dude is scary.

[The Aboleth]

That can get a little messy. We know for sure the oracle DOES prepare in advance for things he foresees (both making his land officially a city just to punish Belkar, and paying in advance for a resurrection). So either he can somewhat manipulate the outcome, or he already foresees the actions he would take if he could hypothetically see what would happen without said foresight (which is kinda brain-twisty).

In both cases, him avoiding Xykon because he knows Xykon would make him suffer in a fashion there's no recovery from makes sense. He either saw he would avoid Xykon to save his own behind, and followed the "script", or he saw Xykon imprisoning his soul/making him into a zombie/whatever, and acted to change that future.

On the bolded part: We see him trying (in a futile way, but trying nonetheless) to keep Belkar from killing him, only to be killed anyway ("Yeah, I wasn't really buying those theories either...worth a shot, though."). So I don't think the Oracle is capable of manipulating outcomes.

Comic for reference: http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0567.html

[Dion]

So I don't think the Oracle is capable of manipulating outcomes.

Sure, he doesn’t seem much smarter than Elan and and his charisma is lower than Durkon’s. He really doesn’t have the skills or the abilities to manipulate anything. There’s no way he was ever going to talk Belkar out of murder.

About the only thing he seems to have going for him is that a god tells him stuff to say sometimes.

[Roland Itiative]

On the bolded part: We see him trying (in a futile way, but trying nonetheless) to keep Belkar from killing him, only to be killed anyway ("Yeah, I wasn't really buying those theories either...worth a shot, though."). So I don't think the Oracle is capable of manipulating outcomes.

Comic for reference: http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0567.html
Yet he prepared a way to come back, and a way to very specifically punish Belkar, in advance, showing he can prepare for the future he sees. Honestly, I'd take a joke taken at the expense of the crazy forum theories as less representative of his abilities than the actions that do have an impact on the story.

[Squire Doodad]

The Kobolt Oracle is my favorite oracle. I love his epic blue armor with its metallic sheen.

[The Aboleth]

Yet he prepared a way to come back, and a way to very specifically punish Belkar, in advance, showing he can prepare for the future he sees. Honestly, I'd take a joke taken at the expense of the crazy forum theories as less representative of his abilities than the actions that do have an impact on the story.

I think you've misread my intended stance (probably my fault for not being more clear). I'm not suggesting the Oracle lacks the capacity to prepare in advance for certain results (like his death) or certain details/events before the results occur (starting a village to essentially screw over Belkar); I just don't believe the Oracle has the ability to manipulate the eventual, final outcome of a given prophecy (in this case, the fact that Belkar was always going to kill him).

[Anymage]

If the oracle only saw what was specifically in the visions, he wouldn't have been able to casually understand Hayley or interact with and prepare for ghost Roy. On the other hand, if he could foresee his visions happening, he wouldn't have been caught out by visitors right after he drew a bath. Trying to put together a consistent typeset beyond Rule of Funny is probably a fool's errand.

[SlashDash]

Considering that Oracle knows A LOT in advance, he must know something about Xykon that he doesn't even want to EVER meet him, even with Wiz+Cleric team standing by.
It also hints at: Oracle doesn't have any good news for Xykon.

What do you guys think?

Wonder that could possibly be...
Maybe that Xykon is the obvious antagonist of the story and is therefore going to be utterly destroyed by the end of the story?

Seems kind of obvious to me.





As for the philosophical stance of free will, I think it's safe to say that rules of drama allow certain contradictions and inconsistencies. On the one hand we see many prophecies brought out by gods* who apparently are able to see things years possibly decades in advance.

Yet on the other hand, we also see gods are fallible and can be deceived by lesser entities for example the IFCC vs Tiamat.





* I think all the oracles we've seen were divine in nature. The Kobold, the blind woman in Azure City and the priest of Odin were all divine.

The one exception is the prophecy of the guy with the goatee, but we never saw how Eugene learned about it.

[Vendanna]

...snip...

The one exception is the prophecy of the guy with the goatee, but we never saw how Eugene learned about it.

Being a wizard that can cast divination spells, I don't think its very hard, also he could have asked a celestial about that, or a celestial wanted to give that information and told him to "tell him on your next visit", which would be similar to the deva giving eugene the letter to inform his child about V deal with the fiends.

[hroþila]

While the Oracle derives his powers from Tiamat, I don't think we can assume that Tiamat also has the same powers, that she automatically knows everything the Oracle knows or that the Oracle knows things simply because Tiamat tells him. I believe Fate is an independent force that is above the gods, much like in traditional mythologies (usually), and I believe the gods can grant spells and abilities they don't possess themselves.

[Roland Itiative]

I think you've misread my intended stance (probably my fault for not being more clear). I'm not suggesting the Oracle lacks the capacity to prepare in advance for certain results (like his death) or certain details/events before the results occur (starting a village to essentially screw over Belkar); I just don't believe the Oracle has the ability to manipulate the eventual, final outcome of a given prophecy (in this case, the fact that Belkar was always going to kill him).
His visions aren't limited to the questions he gets, though. As far as we know, he can and does see everything that happens on his own future, and his actions are based on said foreknowledge. This implies, as I said before, that what he sees (and does) are the best-case scenarios based on the fact that he can in fact see the future, or that he can see a version of the future, and change his actions accordingly in order to change the outcome to a different thing.

The village decision shows that. It doesn't matter if he didn't change the future to avoid his own death, what matters here is that he knew what the future was, and then took some actions that only make sense if he used future knowledge to prepare. If these actions changed the future, or were part of the future he saw from the start, is irrelevant. What matters is that his actions are dictated by his ability to see the future.

In the case of Belkar, there are the two possibilities:

1- He saw Belkar killing him and going on his merry way, and decided to change that to a situation that would punish Belkar.

2- He saw Belkar killing him, and that he should start a village to punish him for that, and he just followed the script.

In the case of Xykon, there are two possible scenarios:

1- He saw Xykon killing him in a way there was no coming back from, and thus decided to not meet Xykon at all.

2- He saw himself taking a break to avoid Xykon in order to save his own bacon, and followed the script.

Situation number 2 is the no-free-will, can't-change-the-future scenario, and the Oracle is still acting in a way that uses his access to future knowledge to his advantage, because his future presumes that he would take the best course of action to fulfil his agenda.

[The Aboleth]

His visions aren't limited to the questions he gets, though. As far as we know, he can and does see everything that happens on his own future, and his actions are based on said foreknowledge.

I think the bolded part is where our disconnect lies; I don't actually believe the Oracle has seen everything regarding his future, primarily because he didn't look ahead to see if his banishing of Roy would inadvertently bypass the memory charm. So while it seems the Oracle can look into the future as much as he pleases, it appears he hasn't seen everything. His powers therefore seem to require he make a deliberate effort to see into the future--it's not an "always on" thing, in other words.

[Manga Shoggoth]

I think the bolded part is where our disconnect lies; I don't actually believe the Oracle has seen everything regarding his future, primarily because he didn't look ahead to see if his banishing of Roy would inadvertently bypass the memory charm. So while it seems the Oracle can look into the future as much as he pleases, it appears he hasn't seen everything. His powers therefore seem to require he make a deliberate effort to see into the future--it's not an "always on" thing, in other words.

Indeed - this is even illustrated in his first appearance: I can peer into the murky depths of the future and yet I always seem to get interrupted during bath time (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0329.html).

[The Pilgrim]

I don't actually believe the Oracle has seen everything regarding his future, primarily because he didn't look ahead to see if his banishing of Roy would inadvertently bypass the memory charm.

So many years since that strip, and it still amuses me that so many people blindly assume that the Oracle didn't let Roy bypass the Memory Charm on purpose.

[brian 333]

Perhaps the only future in which the world is not destroyed is the one where Belkar begins to evolve, and The Oracle did what he had to do start h4m on the road to redemption.

[The Aboleth]

So many years since that strip, and it still amuses me that so many people blindly assume that the Oracle didn't let Roy bypass the Memory Charm on purpose.

Or, maybe I had considered such a scenario and chose to disregard it based on my interpretation of in-comic evidence.

[hroþila]

So many years since that strip, and it still amuses me that so many people blindly assume that the Oracle didn't let Roy bypass the Memory Charm on purpose.
And by "blindly" you mean "in the absence of even a hint to the contrary".

[The Pilgrim]

The only relevant piece of information Roy mantained for bypassing the Memory Charm, was the knowledge that Beklar had murdered The Oracle and triggered the Mark of Justice. Since that plays to the Oracle's advantage, logic dictates that the Oracle would be interested in letting Roy bypass the Memory Charm by banishing his spirit.

Therefore, the so often invoked argument that the Oracle isn't omniscient because he didn't know Roy would bypass the memory charm due to the banishing, is faulty. If the Oracle had looked ahead, he would have still banished Roy's spirit. Assuming that the Oracle didn't, in fact, look ahead, and banished Roy precisely because of that.

[The Aboleth]

The only relevant piece of information Roy mantained for bypassing the Memory Charm, was the knowledge that Beklar had murdered The Oracle and triggered the Mark of Justice. Since that plays to the Oracle's advantage, logic dictates that the Oracle would be interested in letting Roy bypass the Memory Charm by banishing his spirit.

Therefore, the so often invoked argument that the Oracle isn't omniscient because he didn't know Roy would bypass the memory charm due to the banishing, is faulty. If the Oracle had looked ahead, he would have still banished Roy's spirit. Assuming that the Oracle didn't, in fact, look ahead, and banished Roy precisely because of that.

You accuse us of making assumptions based off faulty logic, but I think you're the one doing that here. The Oracle is not altruistic--he is greedy, petty, and by his own admission hates interacting with people (he blatantly states he doesn't want return customers). So while I suppose it's POSSIBLE that he deliberately made it so Roy would bypass the memory charm, I find that to be a much bigger assumption than the idea that he didn't bother to "look ahead" once Roy was successfully banished.

EDIT: As to the "Bypassing the Memory Charm ultimately hurts Belkar, whom The Oracle hates, because Roy now remembers the MoJ being triggered" point, my counter is that Belkar is slated to literally DIE so that knowledge ultimately isn't as significant to Roy (or painful to Belkar) as you imply.

[The Pilgrim]

What I say is that the assumption that The Oracle didn't know that Roy would bypass the Memory Charm, is based only in Roy's inmediate conjecture after the event.

But there is no reason for the Oracle to restraint from banishing Roy (and getting rid of him ASAP, since he dislikes dealing with him) because of the bypassing, as the information Roy would keep doesn't hurts the Oracle and helps making Roy more distrustful of Belkar, who the Oracle also hates.

In the event that the Oracle had looked forward, either he didn't bother, or he thought "hey, if I banish Roy I get a 2x1". There is no reason for the Oracle to have looked and having restrainted himself from banishing Roy because of it.

So, in sum, what we have is:

Fact:
A) By banishing Roy, The Oracle let him bypass the Memory Charm.

General assumption:
B) Therefore he didn't bother to look ahead

The general assumption is based solely in the logic that:
C) The Oracle would mind that Roy would bypass the Memory Charm

However:
D) Letting A happen doesn't harms the Oracle
E) Letting A happen benefits the Oracle as it helps spread distrust among two people The Oracle hates
F) Letting A happen benefits the Oracle as it helps him get rid faster of someone he hates

Therefore:
G) C is disproved by D, E, and F
H) B is disproved by C being disproved.

Conclusion:
I) The Oracle having let Roy bypass the Memory Charm doesn't informs us in any way about limitations in his ability to look into the Future.

[The Aboleth]

What I say is that the assumption that The Oracle didn't know that Roy would bypass the Memory Charm, is based only in Roy's inmediate conjecture after the event.

No, it's not; another person already pointed out that The Oracle is regularly caught unawares at the most personally inconvenient of times:


Indeed - this is even illustrated in his first appearance: I can peer into the murky depths of the future and yet I always seem to get interrupted during bath time (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0329.html).

So clearly his future-seeing powers aren't always "on," meaning that he's probably not omniscient. So that is at least one point of evidence in favor of the "It is plausible The Oracle didn't look ahead to see if the Menory Charm was bypassed" theory.


But there is no reason for the Oracle to restraint from banishing Roy (and getting rid of him ASAP, since he dislikes dealing with him) because of the bypassing, as the information Roy would keep doesn't hurts the Oracle and helps making Roy more distrustful of Belkar, who the Oracle aslo hates.

Roy doesn't need any help distrusting Belkar--he had plenty of other reasons both before and after this incident to distrust Belkar. Plus, Roy has no reason to think The Oracle would help him, and the Oracle has outright stated the only reason he deals with people at all is because he pays them. Heck, the Oracle puts Belkar's death "on the record" precisely because he thinks Roy wouldn't believe him otherwise!

Again, for someone accusing others of making assumptions, you're sure making plenty yourself.



Fact:
A) By banishing Roy, The Oracle let him bypass the Memory Charm.

No, that's definitely not a fact.

[Fyraltari]

he blatantly states he doesn't want return customers

These particular return customers. He’s much more cordial with the dragon.

[The Aboleth]

These particular return customers. He’s much more cordial with the dragon.

All the more reason why he probably wouldn't intentionally help Roy bypass the Memory Charm.

EDIT: In Comic #331, The Oracle calls his prophecy power "a spell," further suggesting his future-sight isn't an inherent, "always-on" ability:

Third panel on the left when looking top-to-bottom. (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0331.html)

(That Edit is not specifically directed at you, Fyraltari; just putting it out there to the general public.)

[Manga Shoggoth]

So clearly his future-seeing powers aren't always "on," meaning that he's probably not omniscient. So that is at least one point of evidence in favor of the "It is plausible The Oracle didn't look ahead to see if the Menory Charm was bypassed" theory.

I was supporting the "not always on" part rather than the "knowing the Memory Charm was bypassed" part.

In fact, I don't care either way about foreknowledge of the bypass - at the end of the day the Oracle is a minor character, so the part that really matters is the result.

[The Pilgrim]

We know that the Oracle did look into the future and read the book compilations (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0330.html). So he knows everything that has happened or will happen on panel.

So, definitely, he knows Roy bypassed the Memory Charm. And didn't care.

[hroþila]

We know that the Oracle did look into the future and read the book compilations (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0330.html). So he knows everything that has happened or will happen on panel.

So, definitely, he knows Roy bypassed the Memory Charm. And didn't care.
No, we know he'll have access to War and XPs (not necessarily Don't Split the Party) and read the transcription of Haley's cryptograms. Everything else is an assumption.

For the record, I don't even find the theory that the Oracle knew and wanted Roy to bypass the memory charm particularly implausible, even though it does have problems. I just think belittling other perfectly plausible interpretations (dismissing them as "blind assumptions") is not cool.

[Peelee]

For the record, I don't even find the theory that the Oracle knew and wanted Roy to bypass the memory charm particularly implausible, even though it does have problems. I just think belittling other perfectly plausible interpretations (dismissing them as "blind assumptions") is not cool.

I wholly agree with this message.

[Schroeswald]

I wholly agree with this message.

I wholly agree with this message.

[The Aboleth]

For the record, I don't even find the theory that the Oracle knew and wanted Roy to bypass the memory charm particularly implausible, even though it does have problems. I just think belittling other perfectly plausible interpretations (dismissing them as "blind assumptions") is not cool.


I wholly agree with this message.


I wholly agree with this message.

I wholly agree with these messages in whole.

[Roland Itiative]

I think the bolded part is where our disconnect lies; I don't actually believe the Oracle has seen everything regarding his future, primarily because he didn't look ahead to see if his banishing of Roy would inadvertently bypass the memory charm. So while it seems the Oracle can look into the future as much as he pleases, it appears he hasn't seen everything. His powers therefore seem to require he make a deliberate effort to see into the future--it's not an "always on" thing, in other words.
Roy bypassing the memory charm wouldn't quite be something the Oracle would see by looking into his own future, though. Roy wasn't near the Oracle anymore when the charm was bypassed.

I'm not claiming the Oracle is omniscient, just that he looks ahead on his own future to avoid threats. It's possible he doesn't even know every event that will happen in his own future, just the ones where his life would be at risk if a specific course of action is not taken.

Think of it like him asking himself "what will be the next time I would want to know what to do to avoid a grisly fate?" every morning before breakfast.