Evil Villains Werewolf

[Snowblaze]

From the recruitment thread:

Disclaimer: this is my first time narrating. There may be stupid mistakes, and the game may be horribly imbalanced.


This is a game of Werewolf, also known as Mafia. General WW/Mafia rules may be found in the Central thread (https://forums.giantitp.com/showthread.php?607501-Mafia-Capital-(WWC-XIII)-Important-Info-Here-READ-OPENING-POSTS!)


Rules and advice specific to this game:

In the event of a tied vote, the first player to reach the tie will be lynched.


Anyone not posting in thread for two consecutive day phases will be auto-lynched.


You shouldn't trust anyone. (Yes, I know this is true for all games, but even more so for this one. Be paranoid. Be very paranoid…)


Everyone will have some kind of power, although it may be passive. Most roles will be fairly standard, but some will be… more unusual. I’ve given you some hints to some of the roles, but if I create more I’m not telling you what they are.


Game-related PMs and creation of QTs are allowed as long as I'm copied on them, but don't share any QT I gave you, a role PM or a screenshot of either.


Days and nights will be 48 hours long.


The game will begin when recruitment is over in 14 days. I'm looking for up to 23 players.


Town:


Everything was going brilliantly: the Plan was just days away from completion, and then the world would have been yours.


That was when those pesky heroes killed the Evil Mastermind. The building's been in lockdown ever since, so you know they're still here... you just need to find them before they kill you all (and maybe work towards your other goals in the confusion!)





The Loyal Deputy:

You were the Evil Mastermind's most trusted minion, and possibly the only other who knew the full Plan. With her dead, you're the new leader, but you're vulnerable - and not only to the heroes...



The Bodyguard:

Your one task was to keep the Evil Mastermind alive. You failed. Now you're determined to do anything you can to avenge her death and keep her successor alive.



The Murderer:

You do all of the dirty work around here. Except now it's not so clear who needs to die... and there's someone out there trying to kill you.




The Friendly Villain:

You may be evil with a capital E, but you're easily capable of charming people into doing what you want. And no-one will realise your real goals...



The Evil Lovers:

Let it never be said that evil doesn't have loved ones: you care about each other more than anything else in the world.



The Devil:

Your second sight is unparalleled, and you can use it to work out who is who, tracking down the heroes hiding amongst you... and the fool who thinks he can match your power.


The Foolish Villain:

You think you have second sight, but in reality it's just randomness. That won't stop you from proving that you can do anything with a bit of luck...



The Mad Scientist

You have come up with some fabulous inventions. It's just a pity you can't work out what they do. This chaos seems like a good opportunity to carry out some testing...



The Paranoid Villain:

You know you're going to die... but it won't be in vain. You've been planning for this kind of thing for a long time. Hopefully you can take out some of these heroes. Or the usurper within the organisation.




Neutral:This situation is so inconvenient. You were only here for one thing, and now you're stuck here. Still, maybe this can work to your advantage if you keep your head down and get a stroke of luck.




Not telling! There may or may not be neutral roles, and if there are their powers will not be revealed until and unless they die.





Wolves:

You've successfully killed the Evil Mastermind: mission accomplished! Only you weren't expecting to be trapped here, unable to get out. Looks like you're going to have to kill the other villains if you want to escape.




The Hero: You've fought these villains many times before, and you know their styles. With any luck your information will help you escape.


The Traitor: You used to be a villain yourself. This means you know how to pass as one again, and you won't be discovered.


The Ally: You're well-stocked with sleeping potions, and your preparedness will finally be useful.

The Animal Sidekick: No-one ever notices you, but you can slip around at night and figure out what the villains are up to.




And finally, player list, in order of sign-ups:

1. gac3
2. AvatarVecna
3. Unavenger
4. Lord Athos
5. Valmark
6. JoyWonderLove
7. Elenna
8. Xihirli
9. JeenLeen
10. Libro
11. trtl
12. Duck999
13. Apogee1
14. kgato503
15. rogue_alchemist
16. Bc56
17. Aventine
18. CaoimhinTheCape
19. MornShine
20. Logan1996

End Night Zero


You stop what you're doing as you hear the sirens. The building is in lockdown: no-one can leave or arrive until it's stopped. There hasn't been a lockdown in months.


You hurry to the main hall to find out what's going on, and are shocked to see the body of your leader, murdered by heroes - who must still be here. You need to figure out who they are - before it's too late...


Snowblaze was killed. She was the Evil Mastermind.


Begin Day One, which will end at approximately 2pm GMT on Wednesday (I'm giving you extra time partly so you don't lose any while waiting for this to be approved and partly so I can update on my computer.)

Also, two notes:

1. No impersonating other people in QTs. (This was gac3's plan. It is not allowed. Don't do it.)

2. I'll post vote counts at the end of each day phase. They will not account for any vote manipulation powers that may exist. I will neither confirm nor deny the existence of vote manipulation powers.

[Unavenger]

I feel like lynching AvatarVecna first, every time, is a little unfair.

On this basis, Xihirli. It's only reasonable!

[Lord Athos]

Aventine because she's No 17.

[Valmark]

Good thing there is no Snowblaze to force me to self-vote :p

Gac3, you're first in list.

Unavenger and AV wolf buddies? (I'm joking) (for now)

[JeenLeen]

I'll poke Elennato start.



1. No impersonating other people in QTs. (This was gac3's plan. It is not allowed. Don't do it.)


In the Harry Potter game, I learned you can write a fake name (like Wolf #2 or Fred Weasley) instead of your forum name. Is stuff like that allowed?
(I guess being able to do that should have been obvious, since you can start whatever name you want, but I only learned about QT through these games and set my name there as JeenLeen, and then never thought about changing it. Nor do I know how to do that.)

I don't really care for the 'fake naming', as it eliminates much of the risk of reaching out with a QuickTopic.

But I'm REALLY glad you vetoed impersonating others. That would essentially render networking useless and ramp the paranoia way too high.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Rolled a d20. Vote Apogee1

[Apogee1]

CaoimhinTheCape. Heroes and capes have a well established correlation

Edit: Would you believe me if I said I typed this before he voted me?

[Snowblaze]

In the Harry Potter game, I learned you can write a fake name (like Wolf #2 or Fred Weasley) instead of your forum name. Is stuff like that allowed?
(I guess being able to do that should have been obvious, since you can start whatever name you want, but I only learned about QT through these games and set my name there as JeenLeen, and then never thought about changing it. Nor do I know how to do that.)



I see no reason why you shouldn't. That is allowed.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

CaoimhinTheCape. Heroes and capes have a well established correlation

Edit: Would you believe me if I said I typed this before he voted me?

I mean, we have the same timestamp for when we posted. That's just some great timing there.

And I have no idea what you're talking about (https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/TheCape). Capes are for dramatic flair. No correlation to heroes (https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/SuperheroesWearCapes).

[Valmark]

As the incredibles teach us, capes get heroes killed though. Just saying. Hehehehe.

[Xihirli]

I feel like lynching AvatarVecna first, every time, is a little unfair.

On this basis, Xihirli. It's only reasonable!

Yeah, that's fair. Xihirli.

[AvatarVecna]

RNG says vote for Libro

[bc56]

I'm still smarting over my death last game, so Valmark for pushing it so hard.

[Valmark]

I'm still smarting over my death last game, so Valmark for pushing it so hard.

Not my fault I was right :p (yes, I'm not funny I know)

- - - Updated - - -

By the by for the newer players who aren't subscribed to Mafia Capital (https://forums.giantitp.com/showthread.php?607501-Mafia-Capital-(WWC-XIII)-Important-Info-Here-READ-OPENING-POSTS!) I suggest doing so. It's the main hub for the games on GitP and current/recruting games are tracked there.

Yes, I know there was a link in the recruitment thread, but that doesn't mean people subscribed to it or red past the rules. I know I hadn't the first time, though that could be me being an idiot >.>

[rogue_alchemist]

the dice gods choose gac3. Your sacrifice is appreciated.

[Grand Arbiter]

Mourning must be placed aside for vengeance. Once the perpetrators have suffered for their transgressions her Plan may continue.

Thus, the tests of loyalty shall begin. kgato503, how do you plead?


the dice gods choose gac3. Your sacrifice is appreciated.


RNG says vote for Libro


Rolled a d20. Vote Apogee1

Consulting mere trinkets? tsk tsk tsk. We have a fiendish oracle in our midst who can gaze into our very souls. I would place my fate in their hands sooner than some bauble that states "Reply hazy, try again".

...Though, I suppose it would be exceedingly foolish for them to reveal themselves now. Divination is a precise art that requires time... let us pray their faith is rewarded.


Heroes and capes have a well established correlation

The correlation is poor fashion sense. Capes are generally gaudy sheets of fabric, which match their garish outfits.

[JeenLeen]

Good thing there is no Snowblaze to force me to self-vote :p

Gac3, you're first in list.

Unavenger and AV wolf buddies? (I'm joking) (for now)


the dice gods choose gac3. Your sacrifice is appreciated.

rogue_alchemist's vote is the first one to put 2 votes on somebody (well, besides Xihirli's self-vote, but that doesn't count for analysis purposes.)
While I can see that as valid, as someone has to start a wagon to get real analysis going, what I don't see as valid is putting a second vote on someone for RNG purposes.

So shifting my vote to rogue_alchemist.
Even if it was an honest mistake and they missed the vote on gac3... well, honest mistakes can look bad.

[rogue_alchemist]

rogue_alchemist's vote is the first one to put 2 votes on somebody (well, besides Xihirli's self-vote, but that doesn't count for analysis purposes.)
While I can see that as valid, as someone has to start a wagon to get real analysis going, what I don't see as valid is putting a second vote on someone for RNG purposes.

So shifting my vote to rogue_alchemist.
Even if it was an honest mistake and they missed the vote on gac3... well, honest mistakes can look bad.


the dice gods do not care for what others are doing and are chaos incarnate! They must be appeased! (Though, no, I did not see that a vote already existed :smallredface:)

[Xihirli]

rogue_alchemist's vote is the first one to put 2 votes on somebody (well, besides Xihirli's self-vote, but that doesn't count for analysis purposes.)
While I can see that as valid, as someone has to start a wagon to get real analysis going, what I don't see as valid is putting a second vote on someone for RNG purposes.

So shifting my vote to rogue_alchemist.
Even if it was an honest mistake and they missed the vote on gac3... well, honest mistakes can look bad.

Why doesn't my vote count for analysis purposes?

[JoyWonderLove]

I never know who to vote for first round and I still feel weird choosing.

[Valmark]

rogue_alchemist's vote is the first one to put 2 votes on somebody (well, besides Xihirli's self-vote, but that doesn't count for analysis purposes.)
While I can see that as valid, as someone has to start a wagon to get real analysis going, what I don't see as valid is putting a second vote on someone for RNG purposes.

So shifting my vote to rogue_alchemist.
Even if it was an honest mistake and they missed the vote on gac3... well, honest mistakes can look bad.
I feel like it's usually at the third random vote that one should perk up and wonder what's happening- though yeah, it could be a not-honest mistake.


Why doesn't my vote count for analysis purposes?

Because you're suspicious when you DON'T self vote, honestly.

[JeenLeen]

the dice gods do not care for what others are doing and are chaos incarnate! They must be appeased! (Though, no, I did not see that a vote already existed :smallredface:)

That's fair. And, honestly, I almost made the exact same kind of mistake myself before I did my vote on Elenna, so I definitely know it's a mistake that can happen.
But I hope this should still drive discussion, so I'll leave it on you.

[Aventine]

rogue_alchemist's vote is the first one to put 2 votes on somebody (well, besides Xihirli's self-vote, but that doesn't count for analysis purposes.)
While I can see that as valid, as someone has to start a wagon to get real analysis going, what I don't see as valid is putting a second vote on someone for RNG purposes.

So shifting my vote to rogue_alchemist.
Even if it was an honest mistake and they missed the vote on gac3... well, honest mistakes can look bad.

Random seems as good a reason as any to place a second vote at this point, JeenLeen.
(Unless you are suggesting you have a better reason this early D1? :smallamused:)


Mourning must be placed aside for vengeance. Once the perpetrators have suffered for their transgressions her Plan may continue.

Thus, the tests of loyalty shall begin. kgato503, how do you plead?

...

Consulting mere trinkets? tsk tsk tsk. We have a fiendish oracle in our midst who can gaze into our very souls. I would place my fate in their hands sooner than some bauble that states "Reply hazy, try again".

...Though, I suppose it would be exceedingly foolish for them to reveal themselves now. Divination is a precise art that requires time... let us pray their faith is rewarded.

...

The correlation is poor fashion sense. Capes are generally gaudy sheets of fabric, which match their garish outfits.

Sliding dramatically, but also subtly and stealthily, out of the shadows, Aventine strikes a pose. After all, what is the point of being a villain if you aren't going to be mysterious and dramatic and edgy?

"With the boss dead, some random and arbitrary murders seem like just the thing to do. Unless you are suggesting we need a reason to kill underlings? How positively...heroic of an attitude."

[Xihirli]

Amateurs, the lot of you. I've been in the villain game for... sifts through her own bull**** canon for awhile... three thousand years, give or take a universe in which I have been a despot for four eternities.

[Grand Arbiter]

"With the boss dead, some random and arbitrary murders seem like just the thing to do. Unless you are suggesting we need a reason to kill underlings? How positively...heroic of an attitude."

Heroic, bah. I am opposed to wasting resources. Each underling, ourselves included, is a tool to be used to its fullest. Purposeless slaughter creates naught but a mess for the custodial staff.


Amateurs, the lot of you. I've been in the villain game for... sifts through her own bull**** canon for awhile... three thousand years, give or take a universe in which I have been a despot for four eternities.

’Tis true; I know of none on par with you.

[gac3]

I'm going to say RogueAlchemist for now. They started a wagon on me because of RNG. People say that a lot but last time it happened it was Snowblaze and he was definitely a wolf then. Will analyze posts a little later to weigh in on any actually suspicious behavior.

[trtl]

MornShine

Their name sounds particularly heroic.

[Xihirli]

I've never met an evil turtle.

[gac3]

1. No impersonating other people in QTs. (This was gac3's plan. It is not allowed. Don't do it.)


I would like to point out that it was more a thought than a plan. Besides it would have only been usable as a wolf.

[Valmark]

I would like to point out that it was more a thought than a plan. Besides it would have only been usable as a wolf.

To be fair, you could impersonate someone else as Town to try and get them lynched just like you could as Wolf. Just... Less sure.

[gac3]

To be fair, you could impersonate someone else as Town to try and get them lynched just like you could as Wolf. Just... Less sure.

The big flaw with the plan is that you have to send the PM. There is no hiding that you sent it.

[Valmark]

The big flaw with the plan is that you have to send the PM. There is no hiding that you sent it.

Doesn't that hold true as a wolf too?

[gac3]

Doesn't that hold true as a wolf too?

Right but remember how we confirmed who all the wolves were? It's because they basically outed themselves to duck. Now imagine that instead that one of them had claimed to be me. Then duck betraying them would have been exactly what they needed. That was the plan. You lose one wolf, but if you pick the right target, should still be in okay shape.

[Valmark]

Right but remember how we confirmed who all the wolves were? It's because they basically outed themselves to duck. Now imagine that instead that one of them had claimed to be me. Then duck betraying them would have been exactly what they needed. That was the plan. You lose one wolf, but if you pick the right target, should still be in okay shape.

Oh, that's true. I'll add that to my rules- to not impersonate others, I mean.

[AvatarVecna]

Y'all ever get the feeling to engage is self-sabotaging behavior just to see what happens? :smalltongue:

[Valmark]

Y'all ever get the feeling to engage is self-sabotaging behavior just to see what happens? :smalltongue:

Always? It takes me all I have to not go around licking processonaries.

[AvatarVecna]

Always? It takes me all I have to not go around licking processonaries.

Just try to resist the urge to start monologuing.

...actually, maybe we should all be monologuing. That always seems to make those dastardly heroes show up.

[bc56]

Always? It takes me all I have to not go around licking processonaries.

Only a hero would have that kind of reckless disregard for their own safety.
I spend my time in safe in my nuclear assault bunker, like any good villain.

[Valmark]

Only a hero would have that kind of reckless disregard for their own safety.
I spend my time in safe in my nuclear assault bunker, like any good villain.

Only a villain enjoys life to the fullest! Lick poisonous things and live to tell the tale! Use poison on other people to let them enjoy life too!

[kgato503]

Only a villain enjoys life to the fullest! Lick poisonous things and live to tell the tale! Use poison on other people to let them enjoy life too!

Okay, that gave me a good evil laugh! :smallbiggrin:

*Consults list of possible heroes/disposable allies* Duck999, tell me, are you more like Darkwing Duck or NegaDuck?

[Xihirli]

Only a hero would have that kind of reckless disregard for their own safety.
I spend my time in safe in my nuclear assault bunker, like any good villain.

Time is but a whisper, death but a window. I'll be back.

[Duck999]

Okay, that gave me a good evil laugh! :smallbiggrin:

*Consults list of possible heroes/disposable allies* Duck999, tell me, are you more like Darkwing Duck or NegaDuck?

I'm more of one of these guys:
https://i.pinimg.com/474x/e3/22/d1/e322d1f61ac77d9ebb9f773bd5571277--fun-express-oriental-trading.jpg

Anyway, as it would happen, my D20 landed on 14, kgato503. That or it's really just an OMGUS. I'll leave that for you to decide.

[Aventine]

...I'll leave that for you to decide.

I really feel like that should have been followed by a hearty "mwahahaha."

- - - Updated - - -


Heroic, bah. I am opposed to wasting resources. Each underling, ourselves included, is a tool to be used to its fullest. Purposeless slaughter creates naught but a mess for the custodial staff.

"Ah, but sometimes the best use for a tool is to be slaughtered as an example to others. I do suppose, however, that it might be sensible to restrict the random culling to the more easily replaceable underlings..."



Amateurs, the lot of you. I've been in the villain game for... sifts through her own bull**** canon for awhile... three thousand years, give or take a universe in which I have been a despot for four eternities.

’Tis true; I know of none on par with you.

"As always, you are a shining beacon of insane villainy in these dark days of 'selflessness' and 'heroism.'"
*overly dramatic gagging*

[Xihirli]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bf_9jD588ao&list=PLBdeHt27rzNOImt0p1Kv1hW8PZsMj04_1&index=33&t=0s
Line up, sign up
If you're looking for some sin
And a dirty way to win, yeah!

Get pissed, enlist
Tap into the devil within
And let the villainy begin

We're joining forces
We're making clever quips
We revel in malevolence
Four thousand horses of the apocalypse

Giddy up, Gotham
Giddy up, up, up

We're going rogue, rogue, rogue!
Rogues are we!
We are the harlots and the hussies
Rogues are we!
We are the swindlers and the cheats

Rogues are we!
We're rising up from the underground
Rogues are we!
We're taking over your streets, oh yeah!

Riddle me this
I've got a puzzle that put you to tears
I'm cruel but never crass

Look no further than here
To see a penguin without peer
I've got a certain touch of class

I made a fear toxin in the form of gas
Then I wear a scary mask

I've got ice in my veins
Venom on the vine
I'll weed out any wussy

I'm a pretty little kitty
But I ain't no-
Rogues are we!

We are the harlots and the hussies
Rogues are we!
We are the swindlers and the cheats
Rogues are we!
We're rising up from the underground
Rogues are we!
We're taking over your streets
Come on!

Rogues are we!

Rogues!
Assemble!
Gather!
Unite!

And take a mental snapshot of this most auspicious night!
We’ve got strength in numbers now, the battle can begin...
Hoo ha ha!

...We’re waging war on Batman, and the war is ours to win!

Hoo ha ha ha!

Rise up! Like a natural disaster
We take The Bat, and then we take back the town!
We harm in harmony, arm in arm we hold our stance
In solidarity, he hasn’t a chance!

Rogues are we!

Rise up! Like a natural disaster
We take The Bat, and then we take back the town
We harm in harmony, arm in arm we hold our stance
In solidarity, he hasn't a chance

Let's dance!

Rogues are we!

[rogue_alchemist]

So as it stands: Gac3, me(rogue_alchemist), and Xihirli all have two votes each. Xihirli technically reached two votes first (with the self vote) though I am not sure if that counts. Then gac3 got two votes and finally I got two votes. Not sure what to make of any of it yet, just starting some analysis to see what we see.

[Elenna]

Aventine, because RNGesus doth bid me to vote on them.

[kgato503]

So as it stands: Gac3, me(rogue_alchemist), and Xihirli all have two votes each. Xihirli technically reached two votes first (with the self vote) though I am not sure if that counts. Then gac3 got two votes and finally I got two votes. Not sure what to make of any of it yet, just starting some analysis to see what we see.

I just got 2 votes as well (Libro and Duck999)

@Duck: I noticed one of those is a stand in for Catwoman. Didn't she turn good (Or, at least neutral)?

[rogue_alchemist]

I just got 2 votes as well (Libro and Duck999)

@Duck: I noticed one of those is a stand in for Catwoman. Didn't she turn good (Or, at least neutral)?

You are correct @kgato503. I have a heard time in posts like Libros seeing her vote as differentiated from her quotes of everyone else's votes. So now it is Xihirli, gac3, rogue_alchemist, kgato503, and Aventine who have 2 votes each. Those are in order that the two votes were reached.

Only JoyWonderLove, Logan1996, and trtl haven't voted.

[Duck999]

@Duck: I noticed one of those is a stand in for Catwoman. Didn't she turn good (Or, at least neutral)?

I suppose Catwoman does at least a little (I'm not the most versed in DC), but Catduck would never betray me like that.

[Unavenger]

JoyWonderLove, get poke'd.

[JoyWonderLove]

Unavenger, I thought what we had (over LiS) was special! :smallfrown:

I'm here, sorta. But as I've honestly said for the past however many games (2? 3, including this one?), I do feel weird voting first round. It really does feel random. For example, I could easily bump a player with 2 votes into a three. But I have no proof or idea that would be a good or bad idea.

So, why am I gambling again on the first vote?

[rogue_alchemist]

You vote now so we can analyze how everyone voted next day cycle and then the following day cycle we have more concrete evidence of trends, but for each day that someone doesn't vote that just delays how long until we can get to meaningful votes.

[Xihirli]

Let's start a wagon. kgato503.

[JeenLeen]

Unavenger, I thought what we had (over LiS) was special! :smallfrown:

I'm here, sorta. But as I've honestly said for the past however many games (2? 3, including this one?), I do feel weird voting first round. It really does feel random. For example, I could easily bump a player with 2 votes into a three. But I have no proof or idea that would be a good or bad idea.

So, why am I gambling again on the first vote?

This is just a general meta-note, but the metagame here on the forum has not voting D1 as suspicious. You could stick to your guns and avoid voting D1, but unless you make a real shift in the metagame (or get established as this as your character, like AV or Xihirli with self-voting), you'll probably have to deal with the suspicion. Which is bad for you regardless of faction.

I was thinking about it a touch more, and I reckon part of why some vote is appreciated, even if based on nothing and for someone who hasn't voted yet, is that it shows something, albeit something small.
If you voted for someone who eventually flips wolf, it could be random Town voting or distancing.
If you voted for someone Town, well, it probably means nothing.
But if your vote is on a wagon, it means you were willing to vote for that person and potentially be fatal to them, which is more informative if they flip wolf.

Though all the above is kinda with a grain of salt, as D1 ignorance makes most of it mean little. Like, if Elenna flips wolf, I'll feel bad because that will make me look suspicious for voting for her originally then shifting my vote, even though it was an innocent poke replaced by a vote motivated by a minor suspicious act.

Though I reckon most wolves on D1 vote for a random townie and hope the Town lynches one of their own by random chance. It only really gets strongly informative if a wolf almost gets lynched, or almost gets lynched then gets revealed later, and we can see who tried to save them or gain town cred by joining an undefeatable wagon.

---

Also, although I at first agreed that voting D1 wasn't helpful and thought it okay not to vote, I see the value now. It does yield some intel, or at least seeds of intel that can bear fruit in later Days/Nights. So, by abstaining, you are helping the wolves by removing a potential data point.

- - - Updated - - -

edit: ninja'd more succinctly by rogue_alchemist

[JoyWonderLove]

So as it stands: Gac3, me(rogue_alchemist), and Xihirli all have two votes each. Xihirli technically reached two votes first (with the self vote) though I am not sure if that counts. Then gac3 got two votes and finally I got two votes. Not sure what to make of any of it yet, just starting some analysis to see what we see.


You vote now so we can analyze how everyone voted next day cycle and then the following day cycle we have more concrete evidence of trends, but for each day that someone doesn't vote that just delays how long until we can get to meaningful votes.


You are correct @kgato503. I have a heard time in posts like Libros seeing her vote as differentiated from her quotes of everyone else's votes. So now it is Xihirli, gac3, rogue_alchemist, kgato503, and Aventine who have 2 votes each. Those are in order that the two votes were reached.

Only JoyWonderLove, Logan1996, and trtl haven't voted.


Let's start a wagon. kgato503.


This is just a general meta-note, but the metagame here on the forum has not voting D1 as suspicious. You could stick to your guns and avoid voting D1, but unless you make a real shift in the metagame (or get established as this as your character, like AV or Xihirli with self-voting), you'll probably have to deal with the suspicion. Which is bad for you regardless of faction.


On one hand, it's a bad idea to take out gac3. He is really fantastic for town. On the other hand, kgato is an excellent overall player. He was one of the key players for the villain side of the Harry Potter game. So voting for kgato is removing a really creative and supportive player in his own way. But rouge_alchemist is also actually trying to get me to enjoy the game. For those biased reasons, I'm choosing not them.

So, I guess Aventine until I have a better idea? Aventine is good at bringing together all the quotes of people, so everyone can have a better idea of a player's thoughts and feelings. And that's neat mid and later game. But earlier game, until I have a better idea who to vote for, we can gamble on the lose?

[gac3]

On one hand, it's a bad idea to take out gac3. He is really fantastic for town.

I feel like my reputation is a bit inflated beyond the evidence. I also know that it's gotten me killed before. Good to know it is promoting keeping me alive now.

[rogue_alchemist]

Voting should end in about 8 hours by my reckoning, but I never know exactly when it will be cut off. Anyway to continue my analysis: kgato503 and Aventine have 3 votes each (reached in that order), followed by gac3, and me with two votes (reached in that order, though it doesn't matter).

A wagon has started on our two lead candidates, so things now get interesting depending what is revealed.

I will say JoyWonderLove has expressed this reticence before, but is the one to potentially put Aventine in danger, so that is suspicious. Also Xihirli not voting self D1 and starting a bandwagon on kgato are even more suspicious. But D1 analysis is like grasping water, you don't accomplish much and just tire yourself out looking for patterns in the randomness.

[gac3]

To be honest... Kgato always seems to survive and is statistically a wolf. I'm also against the logic not voting someone just because they were a wolf recently. That's how snowblaze fooled us all.

[Aventine]

On one hand, it's a bad idea to take out gac3. He is really fantastic for town. On the other hand, kgato is an excellent overall player. He was one of the key players for the villain side of the Harry Potter game. So voting for kgato is removing a really creative and supportive player in his own way. But rouge_alchemist is also actually trying to get me to enjoy the game. For those biased reasons, I'm choosing not them.

So, I guess Aventine until I have a better idea? Aventine is good at bringing together all the quotes of people, so everyone can have a better idea of a player's thoughts and feelings. And that's neat mid and later game. But earlier game, until I have a better idea who to vote for, we can gamble on the lose?

You think I'm useful in mid- and late-game, therefore you're willing to risk killing me early? I don't follow.


Voting should end in about 8 hours by my reckoning, but I never know exactly when it will be cut off...


Begin Day One, which will end at approximately 2pm GMT on Wednesday (I'm giving you extra time partly so you don't lose any while waiting for this to be approved and partly so I can update on my computer.)

By my count kgato's at 4 and I'm at 3. Normally, I'd vote for the 3 to bring the wagons even closer and see who goes where. But I don't think I'm willing to commit to the self-voting thing.

I think voting for gac might be the best play. (Though I feel bad since he just voted against my wagon...)

[AvatarVecna]

Xihirli


Aventine


Gac3


Elenna


Apogee1


CaoimhinTheCape


Libro


Valmark


gac3


kgato503


rogue_alchemist


JeenLeen


RogueAlchemist


MornShine


Duck999


kgato503


Aventine


JoyWonderLove


kgato503


Aventine


Kgato

EDIT:


gac

Apogee1: CaoimhinTheCape
Aventine: Elenna, JoyWonderLove, Lord Athos
CaoimhinTheCape: Apogee1
Duck999: kgato503
Elenna: JeenLeen
gac3: rogue_alchemist, Valmark, Aventine, AvatarVecna
JoyWonderLove: Unavenger
kgato503: Duck999, gac3, Libro, Xihirli
MornShine: trtl

Broke: Thunderdome
Woke: Dover Boys
Bespoke: Self-Voting
...

gac3. Let's get a third wagon in the running, that sounds fun.


I've never met an evil turtle.

Ah, but how many turtles have you met?

- - - Updated - - -

...ah. Great minds think alike?

[Xihirli]

Twenty-three.

[gac3]

Aww man guys... How much time do we have left?

[Logan1996]

Hmmm... I keeping up with two games could be hard. For now I'll join a wagon. Kgato

[AvatarVecna]

Aww man guys... How much time do we have left?

17 hours it looks like.

[JoyWonderLove]

You think I'm useful in mid- and late-game, therefore you're willing to risk killing me early? I don't follow.

This is exactly what I mean. There is no good choice for a day one vote. If you don't jump an a totally silly wagon built out of guesses and fairy dust, you lack commitment. If you do jump on one, it's likely harming town. If you vote at random, it's flipping a coin. If you don't, it's deemed boring and suspicious.

There is no good day one vote.

I'm getting to the point where I think the games should start during night one, where some players like seer and blocker and whatever can figure things out, and so network that much sooner. "Oh, but then you give the wolves a free kill!" That's still a lot better because of the accelerated seer power usage and town network building that comes out of it. Also, the really big fact you didn't also vote off a town member right from the start (which is normally what happens, and everyone knows it). I don't think I'll ever really feel okay with day one voting. But Aventine, I'll cancel my vote on you now.

[gac3]

Voting should end in about 8 hours by my reckoning, but I never know exactly when it will be cut off. Anyway to continue my analysis: kgato503 and Aventine have 3 votes each (reached in that order), followed by gac3, and me with two votes (reached in that order, though it doesn't matter).

A wagon has started on our two lead candidates, so things now get interesting depending what is revealed.

I will say JoyWonderLove has expressed this reticence before, but is the one to potentially put Aventine in danger, so that is suspicious. Also Xihirli not voting self D1 and starting a bandwagon on kgato are even more suspicious. But D1 analysis is like grasping water, you don't accomplish much and just tire yourself out looking for patterns in the randomness.


17 hours it looks like.

These are very different answers.

[AvatarVecna]

True. D1 isn't about sniffing out wolves directly for lynching, it's about getting good information to start the basis of analysis after we see the D1/N1 flips. It's great if we catch a wolf, but we shouldn't expect to.

- - - Updated - - -


These are very different answers.

Aventine has already quoted the OP about this, which says "2pm GMT Wednesday". It's currently 9:21pm GMT Tuesday.

[Valmark]

I feel like my reputation is a bit inflated beyond the evidence. I also know that it's gotten me killed before. Good to know it is promoting keeping me alive now.
Funny enough, it has the complete opposite effect on me xD I thought you suspicious even when I was a wolf.


Voting should end in about 8 hours by my reckoning, but I never know exactly when it will be cut off. Anyway to continue my analysis: kgato503 and Aventine have 3 votes each (reached in that order), followed by gac3, and me with two votes (reached in that order, though it doesn't matter).

A wagon has started on our two lead candidates, so things now get interesting depending what is revealed.

I will say JoyWonderLove has expressed this reticence before, but is the one to potentially put Aventine in danger, so that is suspicious. Also Xihirli not voting self D1 and starting a bandwagon on kgato are even more suspicious. But D1 analysis is like grasping water, you don't accomplish much and just tire yourself out looking for patterns in the randomness.
There's more then a day by my timezone? Roughly.

Aww man guys... How much time do we have left?

I think like 36 hours? Wednesday is the fourth day of the week right? At least from here.

[JoyWonderLove]

True. D1 isn't about sniffing out wolves directly for lynching, it's about getting good information to start the basis of analysis after we see the D1/N1 flips. It's great if we catch a wolf, but we shouldn't expect to.

- - - Updated - - -

Aventine has already quoted the OP about this, which says "2pm GMT Wednesday". It's currently 9:21pm GMT Tuesday.

Yeah, d1 voting and I aren't best friends...

FYI, AV is mostly right otherwise. It's actually 10:20pm in the UK.

In the unlikely case that extra hour messes with someone's intention to vote.

[Valmark]

Yeah it's 21: something of Tuesday for gmt, getting to wednesday it takes surely more then a day

[AvatarVecna]

Yeah, d1 voting and I aren't best friends...

FYI, AV is mostly right otherwise. It's actually 10:20pm in the UK.

In the unlikely case that extra hour messes with someone's intention to vote.

Google says it's 9:27pm in GMT. I think you're in BST right now, my friend.

[Valmark]

NEVERMIND. Wednesday is tomorrow. I'm an idiot. Yeah like, 16 hours

[JoyWonderLove]

Yeah it's 21: something of Tuesday for gmt, getting to wednesday it takes surely more then a day

I...

Would you and AV please be so kind as to not troll me about my own local time? You just made me doubt myself to the point I double checked the three clocks in the room (clock, phone, tv). It's 22:38/10:38pm here.

Snowblaze, Valmark and AV are picking on me! :smallfrown: :smallannoyed:

[AvatarVecna]

I...

Would you and AV please be so kind as to not troll me about my own local time? You just made me doubt myself to the point I double checked the three clocks in the room (clock, phone, tv). It's 22:38/10:38pm here.

Snowblaze, Valmark and AV are picking on me! :smallfrown: :smallannoyed:

I'm literally not trolling, It's a simple statement of fact. Literally all you have to do to see I'm not blowing smoke is google "gmt time".

[Valmark]

I...

Would you and AV please be so kind as to not troll me about my own local time? You just made me doubt myself to the point I double checked the three clocks in the room (clock, phone, tv). It's 22:38/10:38pm here.

Snowblaze, Valmark and AV are picking on me! :smallfrown: :smallannoyed:


I'm literally not trolling, It's a simple statement of fact. Literally all you have to do to see I'm not blowing smoke is google "gmt time".

Oh, I'm totally trolling, don't worry. I absolutely wasn't mistaken about how days of the week are called.

In my defense, I also can't spell the english alphabet past "D". I lack the basics.

[JoyWonderLove]

Google says it's 9:27pm in GMT. I think you're in BST right now, my friend.


I'm literally not trolling, It's a simple statement of fact. Literally all you have to do to see I'm not blowing smoke is google "gmt time".

:smallsigh: :smallsigh: :smallsigh:

It's so obvious, and somehow I've been so negligent and lacking in introspection that I'm too tired to realize the very straightforward and sensible thing you're saying...? Oh, don't mind me, just be ridiculous and handwavy, everyone.

Good night.

[Valmark]

:smallsigh: :smallsigh: :smallsigh:

It's so obvious, and somehow I've been so negligent and lacking in introspection that I'm too tired to realize the very straightforward and sensible thing you're saying...? Oh, don't mind me, just be ridiculous and handwavy, everyone.

Good night.

Don't worry, we love you either way. At least I do~<3

- - - Updated - - -


This is exactly what I mean. There is no good choice for a day one vote. If you don't jump an a totally silly wagon built out of guesses and fairy dust, you lack commitment. If you do jump on one, it's likely harming town. If you vote at random, it's flipping a coin. If you don't, it's deemed boring and suspicious.

There is no good day one vote.

I'm getting to the point where I think the games should start during night one, where some players like seer and blocker and whatever can figure things out, and so network that much sooner. "Oh, but then you give the wolves a free kill!" That's still a lot better because of the accelerated seer power usage and town network building that comes out of it. Also, the really big fact you didn't also vote off a town member right from the start (which is normally what happens, and everyone knows it). I don't think I'll ever really feel okay with day one voting. But Aventine, I'll cancel my vote on you now.

Missed this. To be fair, I'm already used to not being willing to vote D1 being your shtick, so I wouldn't call you suspicious. Fairly sure at this point other people are too.

Voting should end in about 8 hours by my reckoning, but I never know exactly when it will be cut off. Anyway to continue my analysis: kgato503 and Aventine have 3 votes each (reached in that order), followed by gac3, and me with two votes (reached in that order, though it doesn't matter).

A wagon has started on our two lead candidates, so things now get interesting depending what is revealed.

I will say JoyWonderLove has expressed this reticence before, but is the one to potentially put Aventine in danger, so that is suspicious. Also Xihirli not voting self D1 and starting a bandwagon on kgato are even more suspicious. But D1 analysis is like grasping water, you don't accomplish much and just tire yourself out looking for patterns in the randomness.

Forgot to say, Xi did vote for herself.

[Aventine]

This is exactly what I mean. There is no good choice for a day one vote. If you don't jump an a totally silly wagon built out of guesses and fairy dust, you lack commitment. If you do jump on one, it's likely harming town. If you vote at random, it's flipping a coin. If you don't, it's deemed boring and suspicious.

There is no good day one vote.

I'm getting to the point where I think the games should start during night one, where some players like seer and blocker and whatever can figure things out, and so network that much sooner. "Oh, but then you give the wolves a free kill!" That's still a lot better because of the accelerated seer power usage and town network building that comes out of it. Also, the really big fact you didn't also vote off a town member right from the start (which is normally what happens, and everyone knows it). I don't think I'll ever really feel okay with day one voting. But Aventine, I'll cancel my vote on you now.


True. D1 isn't about sniffing out wolves directly for lynching, it's about getting good information to start the basis of analysis after we see the D1/N1 flips. It's great if we catch a wolf, but we shouldn't expect to.

What AV said.

Since the game is about asymmetrical information, and the attempts to either keep it asymmetrical or figure things out, producing data to be analyzed is as useful as analyzing data. That's why you see stuff like pressure votes. You don't have to want someone to be lynched in order to vote for them. In fact, I'd say if you only ever vote for players you actually want to be lynched you aren't using your vote very efficiently. Voting for me really wasn't a bad thing, necessarily.

And starting with a "night zero" is something that is done sometimes. Though I don't think I can remember it being done here.


:smallsigh: :smallsigh: :smallsigh:

It's so obvious, and somehow I've been so negligent and lacking in introspection that I'm too tired to realize the very straightforward and sensible thing you're saying...? Oh, don't mind me, just be ridiculous and handwavy, everyone.

Good night.

Don't feel bad. I had to google "2PM GMT to PST" because I can never remember my offset. Then had to go back later to see if it automatically assumed I meant PDT.

[gac3]

Funny enough, it has the complete opposite effect on me xD I thought you suspicious even when I was a wolf.

That's my issue. Everybody things I'm scary. So wolves kill me. Only time I've earned the reputation is when Caerulea and AV start the trouble and I use it to my advantage. But we will see how things go. I promise you won't regret not lynching me this game.

[Valmark]

That's my issue. Everybody things I'm scary. So wolves kill me. Only time I've earned the reputation is when Caerulea and AV start the trouble and I use it to my advantage. But we will see how things go. I promise you won't regret not lynching me this game.

To be fair, I never regretted not lynching you. Or lynching you, for that matter.

That's pretty significant, I believe.

[Apogee1]

What AV said.

Since the game is about asymmetrical information, and the attempts to either keep it asymmetrical or figure things out, producing data to be analyzed is as useful as analyzing data. That's why you see stuff like pressure votes. You don't have to want someone to be lynched in order to vote for them. In fact, I'd say if you only ever vote for players you actually want to be lynched you aren't using your vote very efficiently. Voting for me really wasn't a bad thing, necessarily.

And starting with a "night zero" is something that is done sometimes. Though I don't think I can remember it being done here.



Don't feel bad. I had to google "2PM GMT to PST" because I can never remember my offset. Then had to go back later to see if it automatically assumed I meant PDT.

Yeah I’m very new to forum mafia but it seems the convention online is d1 starts where every FTF game I’ve played has had night come first. It’s a bit of an adjustment and initially it has felt wierd voting before kills or actions

[Valmark]

Over at Mafia Central there is mention of the 25% rule, dunno how much of a compromise that is.

The rule means that regardless of majority, at least 25% of the players need to have voted for that same person.

For example, among 20 players if the biggest number of votes on a single player is 4 nothing happens. 5 would get them lynched.

I've yet to see it used though.

[AvatarVecna]

Over at Mafia Central there is mention of the 25% rule, dunno how much of a compromise that is.

The rule means that regardless of majority, at least 25% of the players need to have voted for that same person.

For example, among 20 players if the biggest number of votes on a single player is 4 nothing happens. 5 would get them lynched.

I've yet to see it used though.

Rules that are relevant in games where everyone is trying their butt off can be less relevant in games where nobody is. Games where town isn't largely in agreement are common here, and taking away town's killpower because they weren't voting together, when "not being able to coordinate with people they can trust" is town's defining characteristic, is anti-town, and would need to be factored into the game balance.

[gac3]

To be fair, I never regretted not lynching you. Or lynching you, for that matter.

That's pretty significant, I believe.

Then what if I said you will regret it if I get lynched?

[Valmark]

Rules that are relevant in games where everyone is trying their butt off can be less relevant in games where nobody is. Games where town isn't largely in agreement are common here, and taking away town's killpower because they weren't voting together, when "not being able to coordinate with people they can trust" is town's defining characteristic, is anti-town, and would need to be factored into the game balance.
Yeah, that makes sense. Does it mean that when it was first written the players back then were all "hard-workers"?

Then what if I said you will regret it if I get lynched?

That's a challenge or a threat, then. (Also I had forgotten I was voting for you, funny enough this is the first game where I haven't changed my vote yet, not feeling any kind of pull towards anyone. Though there is still plenty of time)

[kgato503]

Well crud. gac3 for self preservation.

Seriously, let me live please. While I am a bad guy this time, it is a good thing for most of you (for once)!

[MornShine]

It's late, and this time debate is giving me a headache. Seems like the hamfisted plan of a hero trying to distract or stall...
RogueAlchemist, I believe you started this.

[Snowblaze]

To clarify: I am on BST myself, and 2pm GMT is 3pm BST, which if I’m right should be 9am forum time. That being said, my record with timezones isn’t great so...

Anyway, since I’m feeling generous, have a helpful vote count!

Aventine 3 (Lord Athos, Elenna, JoyWonderLove)

Gac3 5 (Valmark, rogue_alchemist, Aventine, AvatarVecna, kgato503)

Rogue_alchemist 2 (JeenLeen, MornShine)

Apogee1 1 (CaoimhinTheCape)

CaoimhinTheCape 1 (Apogee1)

Valmark 1 (bc56)

Kgato503 5 (Libro, Duck999, Xihirli, gac3, Logan1996)

JoyWonderLove 1 (Unavenger)

MornShine 1 (trtl)

(Kgato reached five votes first so will be lynched if nothing changes.)

[Duck999]

My initial vote for kgato was actually a die roll, so I don't know how I feel about that putting me on the biggest wagon. Also, most of the votes after me were solely for the sake of making a wagon, which I'm not a huge fan of. I'd say it looks like wolves trying to save someone but it was way too early for that. Still, it makes me a little suspicious of Xi and Logan.

At the same time, the speed with which the gac wagon grew could be someone trying to protect kgato.
For now, I'm about to be asleep until after the day phase has ended, so I guess I'll stick with kgato because the speed the gac wagon grew was sketchy. If kgato dies and flips wolf, I feel like we can learn a lot there. And if I move my vote now I'm afraid I'm just throwing gac under the bus with no reason.

[kgato503]

*Sigh* This is going to get me killed, but I guess I have to claim.

Guys, I'm the Murderer. I kill people for you. May I suggest not killing me?

[Aventine]

*Sigh* This is going to get me killed, but I guess I have to claim.

Guys, I'm the Murderer. I kill people for you. May I suggest not killing me?

CFD time.

We have a claim, and one that's probably not hard to test.

[AvatarVecna]

CFD time.

We have a claim, and one that's probably not hard to test.

I'm already on a counterwagon, but I'm also fine being the claim-testing sacrifice if kgato doesn't have somebody better in mind to kill tonight as proof.

[Aventine]

To clarify: I am on BST myself, and 2pm GMT is 3pm BST, which if I’m right should be 9am forum time. That being said, my record with timezones isn’t great so...

Anyway, since I’m feeling generous, have a helpful vote count!

Aventine 3 (Lord Athos, Elenna, JoyWonderLove)

Gac3 5 (Valmark, rogue_alchemist, Aventine, AvatarVecna, kgato503)

Rogue_alchemist 2 (JeenLeen, MornShine)

Apogee1 1 (CaoimhinTheCape)

CaoimhinTheCape 1 (Apogee1)

Valmark 1 (bc56)

Kgato503 5 (Libro, Duck999, Xihirli, gac3, Logan1996)

JoyWonderLove 1 (Unavenger)

MornShine 1 (trtl)

(Kgato reached five votes first so will be lynched if nothing changes.)

(JoyWonderLove unvoted (https://forums.giantitp.com/showsinglepost.php?p=24518035&postcount=55))

- - - Updated - - -


I'm already on a counterwagon, but I'm also fine being the claim-testing sacrifice if kgato doesn't have somebody better in mind to kill tonight as proof.

I was trying to decide whether we should hold a pseudo lynch vote, or let kgato pick secretly in case the heroes have a way to block it that relies on targeting his target rather than him.

[Snowblaze]

Sorry for missing that unvote.

*resists urge to comment on anything else*

[Aventine]

Sorry for missing that unvote.

*resists urge to comment on anything else*

Ha, completely forgot you were running this one, and was sitting there staring at this post like "why isn't she willing to comment? hmmmmmm, who was she voting for..."

[gac3]

Crap do I have to claim now? Nobody has switched off of kgato but they could. If I claim though, I will probably die tonight.

[AvatarVecna]

I was trying to decide whether we should hold a pseudo lynch vote, or let kgato pick secretly in case the heroes have a way to block it that relies on targeting his target rather than him.

I'm not overly concerned about being protected. If the wolves have a bane, why use it to protect a townie they think is getting targeted by the vig? That seems like a weird use, yeah?

The bigger concern is if they have a voider.

[Valmark]

I think everybody knows what I think of claiming under pressure, but last time disbelief almost got me killed and made Town's win harder to attain (I was the medic, they started blocking me to have free reign) so this game around I'll go ahead and take a gamble.

...

Except I keep forgetting whose wagon I'm already on. Ahr. Surprised nobody moved away, uh.

[rogue_alchemist]

True. D1 isn't about sniffing out wolves directly for lynching, it's about getting good information to start the basis of analysis after we see the D1/N1 flips. It's great if we catch a wolf, but we shouldn't expect to.

- - - Updated - - -



Aventine has already quoted the OP about this, which says "2pm GMT Wednesday". It's currently 9:21pm GMT Tuesday.

I totally missed the OP having an actual date/time and was trying to go 48 hours from when the post was made. I feel like an idiot. So we should have about 2.5 hours until it ends? My sense of time has been so messed up since all this quarantine stuff!

[AvatarVecna]

I totally missed the OP having an actual date/time and was trying to go 48 hours from when the post was made. I feel like an idiot. So we should have about 2.5 hours until it ends? My sense of time has been so messed up since all this quarantine stuff!

That's correct.

[Valmark]

I totally missed the OP having an actual date/time and was trying to go 48 hours from when the post was made. I feel like an idiot. So we should have about 2.5 hours until it ends? My sense of time has been so messed up since all this quarantine stuff!

Yeah that's correct.

On another note, I realize that between the game I got eliminated in and this one I've gotten mighty distracted and didn't comment on the fact that gac voted kgato because "they are statistically a wolf".

Yeah, that's really not a good reason. I agree that not voting someone because they were recently a wolf makes no sense, but voting someone because they have been wolves more often then not?

*votes harder*

[Grand Arbiter]

So, I wake up and check the thread to see a vig claim and nobody willing/able to move. :smallconfused:

I promised myself to be more active this game than before, so here goes ...


Mourning must be placed aside for vengeance. Once the perpetrators have suffered for their transgressions her Plan may continue.

Thus, the tests of loyalty shall begin. kgato503, how do you plead?


*Sigh* This is going to get me killed, but I guess I have to claim.

Guys, I'm the Murderer. I kill people for you. May I suggest not killing me?

It would appear none dispute your claim. For now, I shall believe you.

Now, what of the rivals in the tally... gac3, how do you plead?

[JeenLeen]

I'm thinking of joining the wagon on gac3 to save our Murderer kgato, but
1. a vigilante is a powerful role and one wolves fear, but it's likely to hit townies as much as wolf. So, in a sense, it's not a bad loss.
2. a wolf can easily fake being vigilante, until someone counterclaims, so it's not a role whose test we can trust
3. the wolves will probably kill kgato tonight or tomorrow night if he is the Murderer, anyway. So he'd probably die before his power is accurate.

So I'm inclined to gain more intel by letting us see if kgato is really who he says.
And, if he is town, that makes me suspicious of Duck (says his initial vote was RNG, but didn't change it. Could be a wolf who did a distancing vote, but is hesitant to move his vote lest it strongly look like distancing.)

---

As I write this, I see someone else already moved a vote from kgato onto gac3. So a lot of this is null, I guess.
Well, gac3 claiming as well might be useful. Even if it's something bad to reveal publicly.

Counter-claims anyone?

[Apogee1]

Agh I've just woken up and deadline is really soon and a bunch has happened. I HAVE A COUNTERCLAIM.

I don't know who kgato503 is (although I'll assume scum), but he isn't the murderer -- I am.

- - - Updated - - -

If anyone is on before deadline can we take him out? If I'm lying you know who to kill next

[Grand Arbiter]

Agh I've just woken up and deadline is really soon and a bunch has happened. I HAVE A COUNTERCLAIM.

I don't know who kgato503 is (although I'll assume scum), but he isn't the murderer -- I am.

- - - Updated - - -

If anyone is on before deadline can we take him out? If I'm lying you know who to kill next

Oho, it would appear my faith was mislaid.

kgato

[Valmark]

Let's trust Apogee. kgato503.

[JeenLeen]

So if kgato503 flips Town (Murderer), we kill apogee1 the next Day.
Sounds like a plan.

---

Assuming kgato is a lying hero, I wonder if it was a neat balance of trying to claim early enough that there's time for the votes to move around, but late enough that a counter-claim might not come in time.
Seems heroes don't have the proper sense of timing :smalltongue:

[Elenna]

Yep kgato503. I'm more inclined to believe the counter-claimer than the one who claimed under pressure.

(also vigilante isn't a super useful role, especially early game, so even if Apogee is the lying scum, losing one is definitely worth finding a wolf.)

[rogue_alchemist]

Man this got exciting all at once! kgato503 seems to have claimed badly. Or if not Apogee1 is going to get it Day 2. Man this is the essence of the game! Now will our sleuthiness pay off?

[Snowblaze]

End Day One


Aventine 1 (Lord Athos)
Gac3 3 (Aventine, AvatarVecna, kgato503)
Rogue_alchemist 1 (MornShine)
Apogee1 1 (CaoimhinTheCape)
Valmark 1 (bc56)
Kgato503 10 (Libro, Duck999, Xihirli, gac3, Logan1996, Apogee1, Valmark, JeenLeen, Elenna, rogue_alchemist)
JoyWonderLove 1 (Unavenger)
MornShine 1 (trtl)
Not voting (1): JoyWonderLove
Didn't post: No-one!

You're all paranoid. None of you are particularly trustworthy under normal circumstances, and now with heroes hidden among you it's even worse. Fingers are pointing in all directions, wild accusations flying around the room. One person even suspects themself for... some reason?

Finally, a consensus begins to emerge. A few people start to look increasingly suspicious. "No," says one of the suspects, "I'm a villain, I'm the one who murders people!"

"Liar," spits someone else. "I am the murderer. You must be a hero!"

There is general agreement with this conclusion, and the suspect's pleas for mercy go ignored. Finally, someone pulls out a dagger and slits his throat.

You search his body for incriminating evidence, but find none: in fact, it seems he was, indeed, the murderer. As for the person who called him a liar? He merely smiles and slips away into the shadows.

You glance uneasily at each other, suddenly more afraid than before. It's getting late, but one thing is for certain: none of you will sleep well tonight...

kgato503 was lynched. He was the Murderer, town.


kgato503, you are the Murderer. You win with the villains (town) when the heroes (wolves) have been eliminated. You do all of the dirty work around here. Except now it's not so clear who needs to die... and there's someone out there trying to kill you.

Each night, you may choose one player. Unless they are protected or you are roleblocked, that player will die.

[REDACTED]
Good luck and have fun!

Apogee1 achieved his win condition and left the game. He was the Avenger, neutral.


Apogee1, you are the Avenger, a neutral. One of these villains killed your family, but you don't know which. You need to track them down to take your revenge.

You have a nightly scry which will tell you whether a player is the Murderer or not. You also have a nightkill, which you may only use once. You may not use both actions on the same night.

You win by killing the Murderer, either with your nightkill or by being on their lynch wagon.

Good luck and have fun!

Begin Night One, which will end in 48 hours, at 2pm GMT on Friday.

You may communicate both publicly and privately during the night. Please state who you are targeting with your night action, if you have one, in your personal QT.

[Valmark]

I'm laughing so hard after this xD

[bc56]

Well played, Apogee. Well played.

[Snowblaze]

I'm laughing so hard after this xD

Glad I'm able to entertain you, if nothing else.

[rogue_alchemist]

I was worried there might be a neutral who had a weird win condition trying to get their rocks off. O well, at least Appogee1's win condition doesn't invalidate anyone else's win. Though now we can't lynch him back, lost a town, and have little good information to go off of.:smallconfused:

[JeenLeen]

So, does apogee exit the game, or is he still here as an active player and thereby preventing the wolves from controlling the vote?

Also, good play, apogee!
I had considered that you were a TOWN with the goal to kill the murderer, as the role said someone was out to kill them, but I assumed it was a fellow villain who wanted a supposed ally out of the way. But I hadn't considered one of the neutrals fake-claiming in order to kill their target.



EDIT: I now see the note of "left the game". Missed it, I guess. Bummer.

- - - Updated - - -


I was worried there might be a neutral who had a weird win condition trying to get their rocks off. O well, at least Appogee1's win condition doesn't invalidate anyone else's win. Though now we can't lynch him back, lost a town, and have little good information to go off of.:smallconfused:

Yeah, this is probably one of the best possible D1 results for the wolves. We learn almost nothing, lost our vigilante, and a neutral left the game. So they effectively got 2 kills (2 players gone), and we learn nothing.

Though, in the last few games I was in, I've felt that D1 went so poorly that I was almost guaranteed to lose. And the Town (with me as Town) won the Harry Potter game despite a poorly done D1, so, hey, we're not necessarily in a terrible spot.

[Valmark]

I was worried there might be a neutral who had a weird win condition trying to get their rocks off. O well, at least Appogee1's win condition doesn't invalidate anyone else's win. Though now we can't lynch him back, lost a town, and have little good information to go off of.:smallconfused:

Tecnically it does invalidate, in the scope that he gunned for a townie.

From now on, I'm lynching the counter-claimer first.

[Xihirli]

Apogee1... well played. Well played.

[AvatarVecna]

That was well-executed, even as it ruins my plan to be useful before my death. :smalltongue:

- - - Updated - - -


Tecnically it does invalidate, in the scope that he gunned for a townie.

From now on, I'm lynching the counter-claimer first.

This reaction is precisely why what just happened is so anti-town. Not only did we lose two players instead of one, not only did we lynch a townie, but now going forward, the trust in counterclaims is damaged. That's not good.

[Valmark]

That was well-executed, even as it ruins my plan to be useful before my death. :smalltongue:

- - - Updated - - -



This reaction is precisely why what just happened is so anti-town. Not only did we lose two players instead of one, not only did we lynch a townie, but now going forward, the trust in counterclaims is damaged. That's not good.

Isn't it the same when you don't have proof wether you lynch the counter-claimer or the claimer? In a game with all power roles we should be careful of who might want to kill who, like for example this time around.

[bc56]

Tecnically it does invalidate, in the scope that he gunned for a townie.

From now on, I'm lynching the counter-claimer first.

This doesn't seem like a good idea. Although mathematically, it works out the same, it discourages us town from counter-claiming against a wolf, and this specific situation is unlikely to come up again, unless there's a neutral role that wants to kill each of us, which seems like a bit much.

[AvatarVecna]

Isn't it the same when you don't have proof wether you lynch the counter-claimer or the claimer? In a game with all power roles we should be careful of who might want to kill who, like for example this time around.

Claiming is a strategy for saving yourself. It's a good move for a townie, but verifying the claim can be difficult so it gives wolves more new info than it gives town. Counterclaiming is a risky move regardless of how those involved would flip, because it's inherently setting yourself up in opposition to the existing narrative. Saying "that person is lying" is a dumb move for a wolf and can be a pretty risky move for a neutral - if Apogee's goal was getting murderer killed and then surviving the rest of the game, guaranteed he'd have kept his mouth shut. That's not me talking smack, that's just how I've seen it play out so many times with neutrals like this across so many games. It's even a dumb move for town - obviously you don't fake-counterclaim as town, that helps noone, but revealing your role when youre not up for lynch to get a liar caught is sacrificing yourself for the good of the town.

People claim to save themselves. People counterclaim to catch liars, or as part of very risky gambits. The former is a lot more likely to be lying than the latter on general principle.

[Aventine]

Claiming is a strategy for saving yourself. It's a good move for a townie, but verifying the claim can be difficult so it gives wolves more new info than it gives town. Counterclaiming is a risky move regardless of how those involved would flip, because it's inherently setting yourself up in opposition to the existing narrative. Saying "that person is lying" is a dumb move for a wolf and can be a pretty risky move for a neutral - if Apogee's goal was getting murderer killed and then surviving the rest of the game, guaranteed he'd have kept his mouth shut. That's not me talking smack, that's just how I've seen it play out so many times with neutrals like this across so many games. It's even a dumb move for town - obviously you don't fake-counterclaim as town, that helps noone, but revealing your role when youre not up for lynch to get a liar caught is sacrificing yourself for the good of the town.

People claim to save themselves. People counterclaim to catch liars, or as part of very risky gambits. The former is a lot more likely to be lying than the latter on general principle.


To put it more simply. If you have competing claims and the real one is lynched first, the other is pretty much guaranteed to be next. Best case scenario for a wolf fake-counterclaiming is to be lynched second. But losing one wolf usually hurts the wolves more than losing one townie hurts town.

[gac3]

Yeah that's correct.

On another note, I realize that between the game I got eliminated in and this one I've gotten mighty distracted and didn't comment on the fact that gac voted kgato because "they are statistically a wolf".

Yeah, that's really not a good reason. I agree that not voting someone because they were recently a wolf makes no sense, but voting someone because they have been wolves more often then not?

*votes harder*

That was my initial reason and was a joke. The end reason was, to keep me alive.

[JeenLeen]

I may not have followed everything above, but I think it's still usually safe to trust a counter-claimant and the claiming/counter-claiming isn't terrible. The incident that occurred here with a neutral is likely to be rare (at least across games, and probably within this game.)

If someone claims to save their skin, it could be legit or a wolf lying to save themself.
If someone counter-claims, they are probably telling the truth. Since a wolf counter-claiming means they die next. Though, late game, if this happens I suppose we should do the math to see if a mislynch would mean the game ends.

[gac3]

Man... I got lucky there.

[Snowblaze]

Approximately twenty-six hours left of the night. Please post your actions in your QTs if you haven't already done so.

Also, in response to a question someone asked: yes, you may absolutely provide your own death scene or flavour text if you want to. It's not compulsory to do so, though. If you don't, you just get stuck with whatever I can come up with!

[AvatarVecna]

Also, in response to a question someone asked: yes, you may absolutely provide your own death scene or flavour text if you want to. It's not compulsory to do so, though. If you don't, you just get stuck with whatever I can come up with!

I have a feeling I know who asked. :smalltongue:

[Xihirli]

I wouldn’t count on that.

[gac3]

I want to know who said it. My guess was Xihiril.

[Snowblaze]

Libro, actually.

- - - Updated - - -

Although Xihirli did make some... interesting submissions. You’ll have to kill her to find out what they are!

[Valmark]

Prehemptive buffer post to get the notification, don't mind me.

Not sure "prehemptive" is the correct word.

- - - Updated - - -

Or "buffer".

[Xihirli]

Libro, actually.

- - - Updated - - -

Although Xihirli did make some... interesting submissions. You’ll have to kill her to find out what they are!

If you can.

[Snowblaze]

End Night One

(Note: if your night action doesn’t specifically give you feedback, assume it was successful unless I tell you otherwise.)

You wake early that morning to a horrible scream of pain. Fairly normal practice, but not when it’s one of you screaming. Because when you hurry towards the sound, you find Aventine lying on the ground, rocking back and forth in pain as their blood spills out over the floor. “Alas,” they say, “after all these years, that I must die here, to a mere stab wound from some insignificant hero. It is truly unbearable.”

You beg them to tell you who murdered them, but they ignore you to continue with their monologue. “All the times it would have been far more fitting to die, and now when I have information that could be so valuable to you, and I have not the time to reveal it. I am the one who sees all and watches all, and tonight I saw... so many follow one person... but no, that matters not.”

“Did you see who killed you? Who was it?”

“Yes,” they grind out, blinking to hold back the pain. “I saw their face, I saw the look of triumph in their eyes as they plunged the knife into my heart... and the pain, the agony. I never knew dying would hurt so much...”

“Who killed you?”

“It was...” Before the name can leave Aventine’s lips, they collapse and never move again.

You stare at each other in silent horror. How many of you will die before this mess is over? And who will be alive to carry out the Plan? Or will you all fall to these heroes?

Aventine was killed. They were the Watchful Villain.


Aventine, you are the Watchful Villain. You win with the villains (town) when the heroes (wolves) are dead. Your all-seeing powers will tell you who has been doing what to who... just a shame they're limited in their strength.

Each night, you may pick a player and choose to see either who they targeted or who targeted them, but not both.

[redacted]

Good luck and have fun!


Begin Day Two, which will end in 48 hours, at 2pm GMT on Sunday.

[JeenLeen]

Although Aventine's death lacks the panache of one of Xihirli's kills, I don't like how playful she has been thus far. So part of me feels inclined to vote for Xihirli to push for more solid analysis.

But, looking at the votes (and justifications for votes) that were on Aventine, JoyWonderLove looks the most suspicious. Aventine already questioned JWL's logic, and, as Aventine flipped Town, I'm inclined to believe their surprise at the logic.

[JoyWonderLove]

You raise a good point, Jeen, about it being a little suspicious. I was the last person to vote for Aventine, and I also pointed out in the same post that they're a good medium to long term help for town. But please also consider I was also one of the few to actually unvote Aventine. Practically immediately after he pointed out voting for him was silly (which it was, which is why I think D1 voting is dumb. But anyway...)

More importantly: Wouldn't it be really, really stupid of me to actually take any part in that? Because of literally exactly what you said. It paints me as suspect. As town I wouldn't do it, because Aventine is a helpful player that gets conversation going. As a wolf I wouldn't do it, because under these circumstances it highlights me. There's just no helpful part in this where I wring my hands evilly and go "MWUAHAHAHAHAAAA! AND NOW, I STRIKE AT THEE: AVENTINE!!!" So, no, I really didn't have any part in it.

What's more likely is what actually happened: wolves read my post, or played in the Crazy Ideas game where Aventine was amazing, and then went after Aventine to get rid of one of our good players.

Kind of like the wagon out of nowhere on gac3.

[Valmark]

To be fair, I've seen plenty if wolves incriminating themselves. Snow even got away after she basically said "Yeah I was the wolves' killer tonight" in another game.

Less explicitely of course.

[Xihirli]

I'm going to point the finger at Valmark right now for his response to the Apogee Gambit, calling into question the viability of counterclaims in the future. Could be a play at undermining one of town's best tools there.

[Valmark]

I'm going to point the finger at Valmark right now for his response to the Apogee Gambit, calling into question the viability of counterclaims in the future. Could be a play at undermining one of town's best tools there.

Nah, just a knee-jerk reaction. I never replied but I actually understood what the others explained to me later.

Though I'd obviously say that. On another note, I have no idea who to vote right now, for once. I'll hold off on that for the time being >.>

[JoyWonderLove]

To be fair, I've seen plenty if wolves incriminating themselves. Snow even got away after she basically said "Yeah I was the wolves' killer tonight" in another game.

Less explicitely of course.

Valmark, you're not helping right now! XP

But it would be much more helpful, to everyone, if we at least retraced a bit to see how we got here (apopgee being the best player in the history of Mafia aside). So let's look at who would intentionally vote and stay on one of town's few declared power roles. Instead of trying to focus attention on, say, a point I made about Aventine. A point almost everyone already knows (because most of the players here also played Crazy Ideas). And who I near immediately unvoted for (unlike several others). Whereas those that voted for kgato intentionally attacked a declared town role (even if it was because apopgee is a genius).

So, let's take a look....




I mean, we have the same timestamp for when we posted. That's just some great timing there.

And I have no idea what you're talking about (https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/TheCape). Capes are for dramatic flair. No correlation to heroes (https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/SuperheroesWearCapes).

I'm biased, because I like Caohimn, I like capes (sort of), and I like TVtropes. So, clearly innocent.


the dice gods choose gac3. Your sacrifice is appreciated.

the dice gods do not care for what others are doing and are chaos incarnate! They must be appeased! (Though, no, I did not see that a vote already existed :smallredface:)

Man this got exciting all at once! kgato503 seems to have claimed badly. Or if not Apogee1 is going to get it Day 2. Man this is the essence of the game! Now will our sleuthiness pay off?

I'm biased again, because he also vouched for my day 1 whining earlier. So, innocent?


*Sigh* This is going to get me killed, but I guess I have to claim.

Guys, I'm the Murderer. I kill people for you. May I suggest not killing me?


I'm already on a counterwagon, but I'm also fine being the claim-testing sacrifice if kgato doesn't have somebody better in mind to kill tonight as proof.

AV is one of the only people that tried to save our vigilante, who is the only person town has to actively make a difference at night (obviously), short of seer or blocker. AV also pointed out being on the chopping block, but was still willing to try and protect our vigilante. So, AV's gold in my opinion.


Yep kgato503. I'm more inclined to believe the counter-claimer than the one who claimed under pressure.

(also vigilante isn't a super useful role, especially early game, so even if Apogee is the lying scum, losing one is definitely worth finding a wolf.)

By itself, I would say it's suspicious to not value the player that's town's counterpunch at night. But even in the Crazy Ideas game, Elenna and I worked together, and she really didn't appreciate the idea of playing vigilante, or value that role generally. So, it makes sense she wouldn't mind throwing kgato under the bus. Kind of a pass?

Kind of.


rogue_alchemist's vote is the first one to put 2 votes on somebody (well, besides Xihirli's self-vote, but that doesn't count for analysis purposes.)
While I can see that as valid, as someone has to start a wagon to get real analysis going, what I don't see as valid is putting a second vote on someone for RNG purposes.

So shifting my vote to rogue_alchemist.
Even if it was an honest mistake and they missed the vote on gac3... well, honest mistakes can look bad.


So if kgato503 flips Town (Murderer), we kill apogee1 the next Day.
Sounds like a plan.

---

Assuming kgato is a lying hero, I wonder if it was a neat balance of trying to claim early enough that there's time for the votes to move around, but late enough that a counter-claim might not come in time.
Seems heroes don't have the proper sense of timing :smalltongue:

Jeen highlighted how useful kgato was, after the role was openly declared, and still voted for him...

This is really not the kind of foundation you want to build before calling anyone else suspicious. Let alone for doing less than you did to lose town a useful role. :smallconfused:


Let's trust Apogee. kgato503.

Oh, you sweet summer child...


Oho, it would appear my faith was mislaid.

kgato

Libro just seems to be having fun regardless.



So, based on the above, only the person I didn't quote (gac3) is probably the second most suspicious at a glance, with JeenLeen first. gac3's logic for voting for kgato was that kgato was statistically a wolf. Which doesn't make much sense considering the roles are assigned semi-randomly. Even rogue_alchemist pointed out how weird that was, earlier.

[Valmark]

Valmark, you're not helping right now! XP

But it would be much more helpful to everyone if we at least retraced a bit to see how we got here (apopgee being the best player in the history of Mafia aside). So let's look at who would intentionally vote and stay on one of town's few declared power roles. Instead of trying to focus attention on, say, a point I made about Aventine. A point almost everyone already knows (because most of the players here also played Crazy Ideas). And who I near immediately unvoted for (unlike several others). Whereas those that voted for kgato intentionally attacked a declared town role (even if it was because apopgee is a genius).

So, let's take a look....





I'm biased, because I like Caohimn, I like capes (sort of), and I like TVtropes. So, clearly innocent.





I'm biased again, because he also vouched for my day 1 whining earlier. So, innocent?





AV is one of the only people that tried to save our vigilante, who is the only person town has to actively make a difference at night (obviously), short of seer or blocker. AV also pointed out being on the chopping block, but was still willing to try and protect our vigilante. So, AV's gold in my opinion.



By itself, I would say it's suspicious to not value the player that's town's counterpunch at night. But even in the Crazy Ideas game, Elenna and I worked together, and she really didn't appreciate the idea of playing vigilante, or value that role generally. So, it makes sense she wouldn't mind throwing kgato under the bus. Kind of a pass?

Kind of.





Jeen highlighted how useful kgato was, after the role was openly declared, and still voted for him...

This is really not the kind of foundation you want to build before calling anyone else suspicious. Let alone for doing less than you did to lose town a useful role. :smallconfused:



Oh, you sweet summer child...



Libro just seems to be having fun regardless.



So, based on the above, only the person I didn't quote (gac3) is probably the second most suspicious at a glance, with JeenLeen first. gac3's logic for voting for kgato was that kgato was statistically a wolf. Which doesn't make much sense considering the roles are assigned semi-randomly. Even rogue_alchemist pointed out how weird that was, earlier.

It's not the first time gac3 has a similar reasoning- last time they wrote something like that they said that someone was unlikely to be a wolf since they were one last game.
And the person in question was actually a wolf!

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Caoimhin wakes up from a restful night of sleep, fastening his cape as he rejoins the group. "Hey everyone! I know Libro says that capes aren't fashionable but think of the drama! The flair! Aventine gets it, right... Ave..."

"Oh. Right. Uhhh, we gotta figure this out before anyone else dies. What kind of heroes kill anyway?!? I mean, they killed our Mastermind and Watcher! And got us to lynch our own Murderer. That's not a heroic thing to do! All we did was commit heinous crimes! Killing us is just mean." Cao looks at the group, frowning. More importantly, he stands on an air vent so his cape gently billows behind him.



On to actual game...





So, I guess Aventine until I have a better idea? Aventine is good at bringing together all the quotes of people, so everyone can have a better idea of a player's thoughts and feelings. And that's neat mid and later game. But earlier game, until I have a better idea who to vote for, we can gamble on the lose?


You think I'm useful in mid- and late-game, therefore you're willing to risk killing me early? I don't follow.


FoS on Joy for the logic here. The overall point Joy made was about Day 1 votes being pretty random but now that Ave flipped town it just reads weird to me.



From now on, I'm lynching the counter-claimer first.

Still, my vote is going on Valmark for laying the foundation of suspecting counterclaims. Might be getting us ready for when one of their buddies is on the block and dealing with a counter claim.

[Valmark]

And got us to lynch our own Murderer.

Still, my vote is going on Valmark for laying the foundation of suspecting counterclaims. Might be getting us ready for when one of their buddies is on the block and dealing with a counter claim.

To be fair, Apogee wasn't a Hero.

That said, I'd tell you how I wouldn't be that blatant but I did previously explain to Joy how the wolves incriminate themselves, so...

[JoyWonderLove]

Caoimhin wakes up from a restful night of sleep, fastening his cape as he rejoins the group. "Hey everyone! I know Libro says that capes aren't fashionable but think of the drama! The flair! Aventine gets it, right... Ave..."

"Oh. Right. Uhhh, we gotta figure this out before anyone else dies. What kind of heroes kill anyway?!? I mean, they killed our Mastermind and Watcher! And got us to lynch our own Murderer. That's not a heroic thing to do! All we did was commit heinous crimes! Killing us is just mean." Cao looks at the group, frowning. More importantly, he stands on an air vent so his cape gently billows behind him.

:smalleek::smallamused:


FoS on Joy for the logic here. The overall point Joy made was about Day 1 votes being pretty random but now that Ave flipped town it just reads weird to me.

And that's the tale of why Joy never again voted on day 1 in these games.

The end. :smallsmile:

[Valmark]

I mean, it would make sense if it wasn't that you have been saying it since day one >.>

- - - Updated - - -

I meant GAME 1.

[gac3]

Valmark, you're not helping right now! XP

But it would be much more helpful, to everyone, if we at least retraced a bit to see how we got here (apopgee being the best player in the history of Mafia aside). So let's look at who would intentionally vote and stay on one of town's few declared power roles. Instead of trying to focus attention on, say, a point I made about Aventine. A point almost everyone already knows (because most of the players here also played Crazy Ideas). And who I near immediately unvoted for (unlike several others). Whereas those that voted for kgato intentionally attacked a declared town role (even if it was because apopgee is a genius).

So, let's take a look....





I'm biased, because I like Caohimn, I like capes (sort of), and I like TVtropes. So, clearly innocent.





I'm biased again, because he also vouched for my day 1 whining earlier. So, innocent?





AV is one of the only people that tried to save our vigilante, who is the only person town has to actively make a difference at night (obviously), short of seer or blocker. AV also pointed out being on the chopping block, but was still willing to try and protect our vigilante. So, AV's gold in my opinion.



By itself, I would say it's suspicious to not value the player that's town's counterpunch at night. But even in the Crazy Ideas game, Elenna and I worked together, and she really didn't appreciate the idea of playing vigilante, or value that role generally. So, it makes sense she wouldn't mind throwing kgato under the bus. Kind of a pass?

Kind of.





Jeen highlighted how useful kgato was, after the role was openly declared, and still voted for him...

This is really not the kind of foundation you want to build before calling anyone else suspicious. Let alone for doing less than you did to lose town a useful role. :smallconfused:



Oh, you sweet summer child...



Libro just seems to be having fun regardless.



So, based on the above, only the person I didn't quote (gac3) is probably the second most suspicious at a glance, with JeenLeen first. gac3's logic for voting for kgato was that kgato was statistically a wolf. Which doesn't make much sense considering the roles are assigned semi-randomly. Even rogue_alchemist pointed out how weird that was, earlier.

I really wish people would stop saying it's bad logic. I had nothing to go off of because it's day 1. It's no less viable than most of the votes. That said, last time I voted based on that, I was right even though everyone kept telling me I was wrong because it was so unlikely.

[Valmark]

rogue_alchemist's vote is the first one to put 2 votes on somebody (well, besides Xihirli's self-vote, but that doesn't count for analysis purposes.)
While I can see that as valid, as someone has to start a wagon to get real analysis going, what I don't see as valid is putting a second vote on someone for RNG purposes.

So shifting my vote to rogue_alchemist.
Even if it was an honest mistake and they missed the vote on gac3... well, honest mistakes can look bad.


Random seems as good a reason as any to place a second vote at this point, JeenLeen.
(Unless you are suggesting you have a better reason this early D1? :smallamused:)



Sliding dramatically, but also subtly and stealthily, out of the shadows, Aventine strikes a pose. After all, what is the point of being a villain if you aren't going to be mysterious and dramatic and edgy?

"With the boss dead, some random and arbitrary murders seem like just the thing to do. Unless you are suggesting we need a reason to kill underlings? How positively...heroic of an attitude."


the dice gods choose gac3. Your sacrifice is appreciated.
So, good points for both. Since I don't think two votes would be much to worry about, I'm inclined to follow Aventine's logic more.
Moving on.

To be honest... Kgato always seems to survive and is statistically a wolf. I'm also against the logic not voting someone just because they were a wolf recently. That's how snowblaze fooled us all.
Just wanted to repeat that this isn't the first time gac made such a reasoning and they were Town AND right.

It's late, and this time debate is giving me a headache. Seems like the hamfisted plan of a hero trying to distract or stall...
RogueAlchemist, I believe you started this.
Mornshine that apparently voted rogue_alchemist for creating discussion on the basis that is discussion made to confuse?

I mean, don't get me wrong, I've seen another player do this exactly on purpose so I'm not saying it can't be, just... It's unlikely. Doesn't help that said player was a townie every time and helped the wolves win/got used as a test from Town, so it doesn't feel like a wolf move from rogue.


I'm thinking of joining the wagon on gac3 to save our Murderer kgato, but
1. a vigilante is a powerful role and one wolves fear, but it's likely to hit townies as much as wolf. So, in a sense, it's not a bad loss.
2. a wolf can easily fake being vigilante, until someone counterclaims, so it's not a role whose test we can trust
3. the wolves will probably kill kgato tonight or tomorrow night if he is the Murderer, anyway. So he'd probably die before his power is accurate.

So I'm inclined to gain more intel by letting us see if kgato is really who he says.
And, if he is town, that makes me suspicious of Duck (says his initial vote was RNG, but didn't change it. Could be a wolf who did a distancing vote, but is hesitant to move his vote lest it strongly look like distancing.)

---

As I write this, I see someone else already moved a vote from kgato onto gac3. So a lot of this is null, I guess.
Well, gac3 claiming as well might be useful. Even if it's something bad to reveal publicly.

Counter-claims anyone?
So, expressing disbelief on the not counter-claimed murderer (I think only a little time passed back then though) and preferring their death. Also expressed desire for gac's claiming. And also asked for a counter claim, but that's normal.


Although Aventine's death lacks the panache of one of Xihirli's kills, I don't like how playful she has been thus far. So part of me feels inclined to vote for Xihirli to push for more solid analysis.

But, looking at the votes (and justifications for votes) that were on Aventine, JoyWonderLove looks the most suspicious. Aventine already questioned JWL's logic, and, as Aventine flipped Town, I'm inclined to believe their surprise at the logic.
The fact that Aventine was confused at Joy's logic doesn't make her wolf, since it's normal for Joy. But it's still a plausible point, yeah.

I'm going to point the finger at Valmark right now for his response to the Apogee Gambit, calling into question the viability of counterclaims in the future. Could be a play at undermining one of town's best tools there.
I should point out that I didn't question the viability of counter-claims, I said that I wasn't going to trust one again. And then I further proceeded to discuss about it (well, I asked one question to which I got three answers)


Jeen highlighted how useful kgato was, after the role was openly declared, and still voted for him...

This is really not the kind of foundation you want to build before calling anyone else suspicious. Let alone for doing less than you did to lose town a useful role. :smallconfused:

So, based on the above, only the person I didn't quote (gac3) is probably the second most suspicious at a glance, with JeenLeen first. gac3's logic for voting for kgato was that kgato was statistically a wolf. Which doesn't make much sense considering the roles are assigned semi-randomly. Even rogue_alchemist pointed out how weird that was, earlier.

What I said about gac3 and... Didn't Jeen do the opposite of what you say, recognizing how it is a double edged sword? Not that he is not suspicious of anything, I just don't see what you said.

That said, while I'm ok with voting Jeen, I first want to prod MornShine. Why did the discussion from D1 feel like a wolf trying to confuse things?

[AvatarVecna]

saying D1 is just lolrandom with no value isn't wolfy, just wrong. JWL will learn the usefulness of D1 in time, but it's not necessarily a reason to string them up.

I'm working on stuff for a different game, so I'm gonna be a bit distracted for the next ~12 hours, so I'll just put a placeholder vote on an inactive. Let's say...kgato503. No, I haven't actually checked to be sure that kgato hasn't posted much this game. Call it a hunch. :smalltongue:

EDIT: Wait I'm an idiot with a bad memory. kgato died yesterday didn't they?

- - - Updated - - -

Logan1996 then.

[AvatarVecna]

Putting out a call, because I received a PM/QT convo after the new day started that's relevant to somebody: the Feuding Villain has contacted me attempting to form an alliance. If you're the other Feuding Villain, the one that didn't contact me, get in touch and we'll see if we can work something out.

[gac3]

I'm going to start my vote with Xihiril. In part because I'm not sure who to vote for and expect to change this later. In part because I don't like their reasoning for voting Valmark. In part because I want to see what these mysterious submissions were for their death

[Elenna]

My initial vote for kgato was actually a die roll, so I don't know how I feel about that putting me on the biggest wagon. Also, most of the votes after me were solely for the sake of making a wagon, which I'm not a huge fan of. I'd say it looks like wolves trying to save someone but it was way too early for that. Still, it makes me a little suspicious of Xi and Logan.

At the same time, the speed with which the gac wagon grew could be someone trying to protect kgato.
For now, I'm about to be asleep until after the day phase has ended, so I guess I'll stick with kgato because the speed the gac wagon grew was sketchy. If kgato dies and flips wolf, I feel like we can learn a lot there. And if I move my vote now I'm afraid I'm just throwing gac under the bus with no reason.
Yeah, I'm not generally a fan of posts that talk about how the wagon they're on is suspicious but then don't switch... Could be a wolf trying to make excuses in advance for being on a townie?
Voting gac for now (see below), but I'd be down to switch to Duck.


Jeen highlighted how useful kgato was, after the role was openly declared, and still voted for him...

This is really not the kind of foundation you want to build before calling anyone else suspicious. Let alone for doing less than you did to lose town a useful role. :smallconfused:

...

So, based on the above, only the person I didn't quote (gac3) is probably the second most suspicious at a glance, with JeenLeen first. gac3's logic for voting for kgato was that kgato was statistically a wolf. Which doesn't make much sense considering the roles are assigned semi-randomly. Even rogue_alchemist pointed out how weird that was, earlier.

Yeah, I also don't see where Jeen said kgato is useful? If anything they talk about how they're okay with kgato's death:

I'm thinking of joining the wagon on gac3 to save our Murderer kgato, but
1. a vigilante is a powerful role and one wolves fear, but it's likely to hit townies as much as wolf. So, in a sense, it's not a bad loss.
2. a wolf can easily fake being vigilante, until someone counterclaims, so it's not a role whose test we can trust
3. the wolves will probably kill kgato tonight or tomorrow night if he is the Murderer, anyway. So he'd probably die before his power is accurate.

So I'm inclined to gain more intel by letting us see if kgato is really who he says.

Also, for clarity, here's the gac post in question:


To be honest... Kgato always seems to survive and is statistically a wolf. I'm also against the logic not voting someone just because they were a wolf recently. That's how snowblaze fooled us all.

I remember assuming this was a joke vote (because obviously roles are randomly generated, the probability of someone being a wolf has nothing to do with their past history), but it kind of does read like a serious comment actually? :smallconfused:

If it was serious, it's definitely bad logic. But there's a lot of bad logic going around D1, because there isn't much to go on. Both town and wolves can make bad arguments, it only becomes suspicious if you think a wolf is making a false argument on purpose to try to manipulate the lynch. And at the time, the biggest wagons were kgato and Aventine, who are both known townies, so there's no particular reason a wolf would want to make up bad logic just to push one of those wagons. So I'm reading this as a null tell.


I'm going to start my vote with Xihiril. In part because I'm not sure who to vote for and expect to change this later. In part because I don't like their reasoning for voting Valmark. In part because I want to see what these mysterious submissions were for their death

This, on the other hand, I'm not a big fan of. Similar to Duck's comment, the part about voting for Xihirli but expecting to change it later feels like a wolf hoping for a townie lynch without any good evidence, but not wanting to look bad for pushing a lynch on a townie.
Also, if gac is lynched we might be able to use their flip to get some information from the D1 voting patterns.
gac3, what are you expecting to happen that causes you to move off Xihirli? Also, can you explain why you didn't like their reasoning for voting Valmark?

[Xihirli]

I'm going to start my vote with Xihiril. In part because I'm not sure who to vote for and expect to change this later. In part because I don't like their reasoning for voting Valmark. In part because I want to see what these mysterious submissions were for their death

Other people have done it.


saying D1 is just lolrandom with no value isn't wolfy, just wrong. JWL will learn the usefulness of D1 in time, but it's not necessarily a reason to string them up.

I'm working on stuff for a different game, so I'm gonna be a bit distracted for the next ~12 hours, so I'll just put a placeholder vote on an inactive. Let's say...kgato503. No, I haven't actually checked to be sure that kgato hasn't posted much this game. Call it a hunch. :smalltongue:

EDIT: Wait I'm an idiot with a bad memory. kgato died yesterday didn't they?

- - - Updated - - -

Logan1996 then.

I’m sure Vecna has. And this isn’t like you, Vecna. I’m shocked, shocked I tell you, that you would forget about Kgato’s death when you’ve discussed it. It’s almost like you don’t care who died D1 as long as it wasn’t one of your buddies.

[gac3]

Yeah, I'm not generally a fan of posts that talk about how the wagon they're on is suspicious but then don't switch... Could be a wolf trying to make excuses in advance for being on a townie?
Voting gac for now (see below), but I'd be down to switch to Duck.



Yeah, I also don't see where Jeen said kgato is useful? If anything they talk about how they're okay with kgato's death:


Also, for clarity, here's the gac post in question:



I remember assuming this was a joke vote (because obviously roles are randomly generated, the probability of someone being a wolf has nothing to do with their past history), but it kind of does read like a serious comment actually? :smallconfused:

If it was serious, it's definitely bad logic. But there's a lot of bad logic going around D1, because there isn't much to go on. Both town and wolves can make bad arguments, it only becomes suspicious if you think a wolf is making a false argument on purpose to try to manipulate the lynch. And at the time, the biggest wagons were kgato and Aventine, who are both known townies, so there's no particular reason a wolf would want to make up bad logic just to push one of those wagons. So I'm reading this as a null tell.



This, on the other hand, I'm not a big fan of. Similar to Duck's comment, the part about voting for Xihirli but expecting to change it later feels like a wolf hoping for a townie lynch without any good evidence, but not wanting to look bad for pushing a lynch on a townie.
Also, if gac is lynched we might be able to use their flip to get some information from the D1 voting patterns.
gac3, what are you expecting to happen that causes you to move off Xihirli? Also, can you explain why you didn't like their reasoning for voting Valmark?

I'm expecting to have more evidence than "I don't like this single peice of logic". My point was to convey that I had yet to finish any analysis that would lead to a wolf suspect but I am investigating a train of thought. Like a pressure vote.

The reason for not liking the Valmark vote is that Valmarks reaction was a legitimate concern. Then it got shot down and explained. It didn't sound wolfy at all to me.

[Valmark]

Other people have done it.



I’m sure Vecna has. And this isn’t like you, Vecna. I’m shocked, shocked I tell you, that you would forget about Kgato’s death when you’ve discussed it. It’s almost like you don’t care who died D1 as long as it wasn’t one of your buddies.

Other people have done it what? You mean the placeholder vote?

[Xihirli]

Gotten death scenes ready.

[Valmark]

Gotten death scenes ready.

Oh that. Yeah, Snow said that during Night 1.

[gac3]

Gotten death scenes ready.

It was a joke because snow said yours were interesting.
All in all "research" was less helpful than expected. I was going to say that people who switched off of kgato after his claim were less likely to be wolves because it came so close to the end of the day it's easy to say you missed it due to work/sleep.
That said of the five that were voting kgato at the time, me, Logan, Xihiril, duck, and Libro, only Libro changed. So I expect Libro isn't a wolf. I am not a wolf. I have reason to believe Logan isn't a wolf (but could be wrong). That said it's a good chance Xihiril or duck might be wolves but I doubt they both are. I wouldn't expect more than one on a wagon at that point in the game.

[Grand Arbiter]

Placing a placeholder/poke vote on Duck999. My internet went on the fritz earlier this evening, so I want to register a vote just in case the modem decides to die this weekend :smallsigh:

I’ll aim to do a proper post with evaluation and roleplay in the morning.

[AvatarVecna]

I'm very much not a fan of how quiet it is so far.

(Isn't the game normally a chaotic mess by now? Which one of you slackers is usually responsible for causing chaos and is flying under the radar this game, huh??!!! :smalltongue:)

Duck999: Libro
gac3: Elenna
JeenLeen: JoyWonderLove
JoyWonderLove: JeenLeen
Logan1996: AvatarVecna
Mornshine: Valmark
Valmark: Xihirli, CaoimhinTheCape
Xihirli: gac3

Y'know, it's really weird. I didn't even initiate any networking this game, but I've already got 7 people who've claimed something to me. That's weird, right?

[Snowblaze]

Can confirm that AV's vote count is accurate, and also that I'm getting bored without you posting stuff to amuse me: seriously, the day's nearly half over and nine people haven't even posted anything in thread!

[Valmark]

To be honest, with Snow the narrator and Aventine dead we are down two talkative people already. And Xi's even been more active then usual, I think?

- - - Updated - - -

And Apogee also, I think

[AvatarVecna]

Making a note to myself to ISO a couple...interesting people.


I would like to point out that it was more a thought than a plan. Besides it would have only been usable as a wolf.

A quick glance over the thread as a whole didn't have too many posts jump out at me, but this one did.

Snowblaze: "This tactic isn't allowed. That includes you gac."

gac3: "I wasn't planning on it, just considering it. Besides only a wolf would consider it."

Scumslip?

- - - Updated - - -


To be honest, with Snow the narrator and Aventine dead we are down two talkative people already. And Xi's even been more active then usual, I think?

Their are eight living players with fewer posts than kgato

[Valmark]

Making a note to myself to ISO a couple...interesting people.



A quick glance over the thread as a whole didn't have too many posts jump out at me, but this one did.

Snowblaze: "This tactic isn't allowed. That includes you gac."

gac3: "I wasn't planning on it, just considering it. Besides only a wolf would consider it."


Wording! Snow said that it was gac's plan. The plan they asked in the recruitment thread when nobody had roles yet.
I think, I'm going back to double check.

[AvatarVecna]

Wording! Snow said that it was gac's plan. The plan they asked in the recruitment thread when nobody had roles yet.
I think, I'm going back to double check.

If true, that'd assuage my suspicion a bit. I've got at least one other good reason to be suspicious, but I'd prefer to build an actual case before saying anything...but then, they're not my strongest lean right now.

[Valmark]

Double checking, gac expressed the doubt back in the recruitment thread but nothing specifies when it was asked. I'm guessing gac asked back then, but it's just a guess.

[Unavenger]

Yeah, I recall Gac asking, although "Oh it would only have worked as wolf, woe is me I can't use this because I'm not a wolf" could be LAMISTy, I'm not totally convinced. *Shrug*.

[Valmark]

Yeah, I recall Gac asking, although "Oh it would only have worked as wolf, woe is me I can't use this because I'm not a wolf" could be LAMISTy, I'm not totally convinced. *Shrug*.

LAMISTy means? I've heard WIFOM, FoS, CFD and OMGUS until now, not that.

[Xihirli]

And Xi's even been more active then usual, I think?

Well, I am evil.

[AvatarVecna]

LAMISTy means? I've heard WIFOM, FoS, CFD and OMGUS until now, not that.

Look At Me I'm So Towny

[JeenLeen]

I'm having trouble reading gac3. Their almost-death D1, and some of their stuff has value to analysis, but I'm having trouble finding the time to really DO the analysis. That, and others' responses.

Though I don't think gac3's scheme is any evidence against him. He thought of it during recruitment, and it was ruled out in the opening post, near the bottom


1. No impersonating other people in QTs. (This was gac3's plan. It is not allowed. Don't do it.)


I find it odd there's no strong wagons yet. Wolves hoping we're lynch ourselves? I don't see any strong reason to suspect Valmark.
Anyway, I hope to have some time to be online tonight, after the kids are in bed. Weekends are hard for me.


LAMISTy means? I've heard WIFOM, FoS, CFD and OMGUS until now, not that.

What's FoS, CFD< and OMGUS?

[Valmark]

I'm having trouble reading gac3. Their almost-death D1, and some of their stuff has value to analysis, but I'm having trouble finding the time to really DO the analysis. That, and others' responses.

Though I don't think gac3's scheme is any evidence against him. He thought of it during recruitment, and it was ruled out in the opening post, near the bottom


I find it odd there's no strong wagons yet. Wolves hoping we're lynch ourselves? I don't see any strong reason to suspect Valmark.
Anyway, I hope to have some time to be online tonight, after the kids are in bed. Weekends are hard for me.



What's FoS, CFD< and OMGUS?
FoS is Finger of Suspicion, basically telling people you're keeping an eye on them.

CFD... either Aventine or Duck explained the acronym, but I can't recall it. It basically means a mass movent of a wagon (or on) like Aventine said to do when kgato claimed. At least I think that is what she meant.

OMGUS... uh, suddenly I don't remember it.

[AvatarVecna]

I'm having trouble reading gac3. Their almost-death D1, and some of their stuff has value to analysis, but I'm having trouble finding the time to really DO the analysis. That, and others' responses.

Though I don't think gac3's scheme is any evidence against him. He thought of it during recruitment, and it was ruled out in the opening post, near the bottom


I find it odd there's no strong wagons yet. Wolves hoping we're lynch ourselves? I don't see any strong reason to suspect Valmark.
Anyway, I hope to have some time to be online tonight, after the kids are in bed. Weekends are hard for me.



What's FoS, CFD< and OMGUS?

Finger Of Suspicion is signalling your suspicion without changing your vote.

Chinese Fire Drill is when wagons change in large and sudden ways. Sometimes it's a sign of shenanigans afoot, sometimes a call goes out for one to occur as a reaction to a claim/counterclaim.

OMG U Suck. Is typically used to refer to revenge-votes - votes that look like "you're voting me? only somebody bad at the game or trying to hurt town would try to lynch an obvious townie like me! you're either bad or a wolf, so Im gonna vote you".

[trtl]

I'm very much not a fan of how quiet it is so far.

(Isn't the game normally a chaotic mess by now? Which one of you slackers is usually responsible for causing chaos and is flying under the radar this game, huh??!!! :smalltongue:)

Duck999: Libro
gac3: Elenna
JeenLeen: JoyWonderLove
JoyWonderLove: JeenLeen
Logan1996: AvatarVecna
Mornshine: Valmark
Valmark: Xihirli, CaoimhinTheCape
Xihirli: gac3

Y'know, it's really weird. I didn't even initiate any networking this game, but I've already got 7 people who've claimed something to me. That's weird, right?


Thanks for the vote count. What is this networking stuff? This is only my second game and I'm still trying to figure stuff out.

JoyWonderLove because I don't have any suspicions and Valmark has enough votes for now, JowWonderLove has the next most compelling case against them.

[Xihirli]

You know what, yes. The lack of activity tells me that the wolves are happy with Valmark taking the L so let's see if they do anything to save JoyWonderLove, my best friend.

[Duck999]

I'm very much not a fan of how quiet it is so far.

(Isn't the game normally a chaotic mess by now? Which one of you slackers is usually responsible for causing chaos and is flying under the radar this game, huh??!!! :smalltongue:)

Not me! I'm always a slacker.


Y'know, it's really weird. I didn't even initiate any networking this game, but I've already got 7 people who've claimed something to me. That's weird, right?

Very.

On another note, I don't like the wagon (and by wagon I mean all of two votes) on Valmark. With a game this quiet, I think we should keep Valmark around for a little more. He tends to do good analysis and the reason for voting him isn't that strong. Obviously he could be a wolf, but if he's not I think he's too valuable to lynch on what we have.

For now at least, I'll vote Xihirli. She pointed at Valmark early on and then didn't engage in discussion about her logic when Valmark refuted it.

Edit: Ninja'd by Xihirli changing votes. I stand by my vote because she still hasn't engaged in the discussion about her initial vote, instead just switching wagons for unrelated reasons. Not enough activity so you just switch your vote to someone else seemingly at random? Not a fan.

[Xihirli]

I’m a fan.

[gac3]

Making a note to myself to ISO a couple...interesting people.



A quick glance over the thread as a whole didn't have too many posts jump out at me, but this one did.

Snowblaze: "This tactic isn't allowed. That includes you gac."

gac3: "I wasn't planning on it, just considering it. Besides only a wolf would consider it."

Scumslip?

- - - Updated - - -



Their are eight living players with fewer posts than kgato


Wording! Snow said that it was gac's plan. The plan they asked in the recruitment thread when nobody had roles yet.
I think, I'm going back to double check.


Double checking, gac expressed the doubt back in the recruitment thread but nothing specifies when it was asked. I'm guessing gac asked back then, but it's just a guess.

Okay. Looks like this has been clarified. But I mentioned it in recruitment and Snowblaze specifically asked me in my QT while we waited for thread approval.

Did I miss the case against JoyWonderLove? In either case they are the wagon that hasn't claimed to me so I'm more inclined towards them.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Did I miss the case against JoyWonderLoce? In either case they are the wagon that hasn't claimed to me so I'm more inclined towards them.

The case against Joy is mostly from JeenLeen and myself. Trtl liked the reasons and Xihirli wanted to see if anyone would jump in to save Joy.

Side note, your spelling of Joy's name is wrong. I assume the vote still counts, but just a heads up.


But, looking at the votes (and justifications for votes) that were on Aventine, JoyWonderLove looks the most suspicious. Aventine already questioned JWL's logic, and, as Aventine flipped Town, I'm inclined to believe their surprise at the logic.

As for myself, the fact that Ave flipped town made the quote below look funny to me. Saying that someone is a good player right after voting them is not necessarily a tell but it seems like a reason Joy would want Ave killed at night.





So, I guess Aventine until I have a better idea? Aventine is good at bringing together all the quotes of people, so everyone can have a better idea of a player's thoughts and feelings. And that's neat mid and later game. But earlier game, until I have a better idea who to vote for, we can gamble on the lose?

You think I'm useful in mid- and late-game, therefore you're willing to risk killing me early? I don't follow.



Vote: JoyWonderLove. It's by no means a bulletproof case but I think I like it better than any of the other wagons.

- The JeenLeen vote was because Jeen voted a claimed Murderer after saying it was a useful role.
- Vote on Logan was for being inactive.
- Vote on MornShine for being inactive.
- Vote on gac was for info about D1 voting patterns and his vote on Xihirli
- Placeholder vote on Duck
- Xihirli was a placeholder for gac, then Duck's vote was for her voting Valmark but not discussing the logic behind it.

Weird that so many votes left hanging are placeholders/prods, especially since this is when we should be consolidating and making wagons. As far as I can tell the only wagons with reasons behind them are Joy/Jeen/gac/Xihirli and only one has really taken off as of today.

We also have a lot of people not voting/absent plus three placeholder votes, which I'm worried about - either the wolves can easily control the town or they're hiding and letting us knock off each other.




What is this networking stuff? This is only my second game and I'm still trying to figure stuff out.

Per the rules, people are allowed to communicate privately outside of thread (as long as Snowblaze the GM is included). Most often this comes in the form of QTs but could be a bunch of private messages if you want your inbox to be constantly full. (Actually, I think Snow specifically asked to make Quick Topics instead of Private Messages).

A couple games ago (Harry Potter Mafia) AV organized the town by sending out private chats to a bunch of people guessing their role and initiating conversations. It very much worked out for the town, especially since AV was a role that could be verified by a second source (in that game AV was a mason, the other mason could confirm his identity).

It can be helpful, but if the person everyone reveals to is mafia or neutral, it could go very very badly.




Duck999 (1): Libro
gac3 (1): Elenna
JeenLeen (1): JoyWonderLove
JoyWonderLove (5): JeenLeen, trtl, Xihirli, gac3, CaoimhinTheCape
Logan1996 (1): AvatarVecna
Mornshine (1): Valmark
Xihirli (1): Duck999

Not Voting: Unavenger, Lord Athos, rogue_alchemist, Bc56, MornShine, Logan1996

[JoyWonderLove]

JoyWonderLove, you are a Feuding Villain, a neutral. At this stage you’ve long since given up caring about the stupid Plan. All you care about is finally eliminating each other, and this is the perfect opportunity to do that.

I actually already know exactly who the other Villian is. We've even been talking semi-casually in a quicktopic that person made. So, hiya. :smallsmile:

[Unavenger]

What I find a little odd is that gac3 would jump on a wagon in the same sentence as proclaiming his non-comprehension of the case for that wagon.

[Xihirli]

I, too, find that odd. gac3 really does read to me like somebody just coasting by and putting in a vote because it's expected. And with the claim on Joy I'm good fire drilling onto Gac.

[gac3]

What I find a little odd is that gac3 would jump on a wagon in the same sentence as proclaiming his non-comprehension of the case for that wagon.


I, too, find that odd. gac3 really does read to me like somebody just coasting by and putting in a vote because it's expected. And with the claim on Joy I'm good fire drilling onto Gac.

As I said, the only two wagons I knew of were Valmark and Joy. Granted I wasn't paying close attention to the vote totals so I thought they were closer. But again, like I said, I am more inclined of the two to not vote Valmark because they have at least claimed to me.

Edit:
I'll admit to the coasting part. Do I know who to lynch? Nope. Not yet. My best evidence has already been given. I do however have proof to not lynch a few people, luckily they aren't on the chopping block yet.

[Valmark]

JoyWonderLove, you are a Feuding Villain, a neutral. At this stage you’ve long since given up caring about the stupid Plan. All you care about is finally eliminating each other, and this is the perfect opportunity to do that.

I actually already know exactly who the other Villian is. We've even been talking semi-casually in a quicktopic that person made. So, hiya. :smallsmile:

...you're the last person I wanted as my enemy. Yeah I'm the other Feuding Villain. Now that's awkward.

[gac3]

...you're the last person I wanted as my enemy. Yeah I'm the other Feuding Villain. Now that's awkward.

Horribly Ironic was that my reason for voting joy was that you claimed that role... Now so have they.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Alright, so great that we know who the two Feuding Villains are. Maybe. If stuff is out in the open, would either of you mind sharing what the negative piece is for town? Like, is this just a distraction from getting the heroes?

Assuming no one counterclaims I'm guessing that you both are unlikely to be lynched or killed at night? So what's the deal?



Leaving my vote where it is for now since we have time and I'm looking for answers.

[gac3]

I think their goal is to kill eachother. So my biggest concern is if we don't lynch one of them, then they might resort trading infromation to the wolves in exchange for getting the wolves to kill the other.

[Valmark]

The problem is, Town won't lynch either and I haven't contacted any wolf (at least no one claimed wolf to me) so I'll like, have to wait and hope she dies while I don't.

And then Town will lynch me or her thinking we are siding with wolves. Or at least, I would. Though if MornShine doesn't come up and is set to auto-lynch they are probably going to be priority target to not lose a day (haven't done the math precisely)

- - - Updated - - -


Alright, so great that we know who the two Feuding Villains are. Maybe. If stuff is out in the open, would either of you mind sharing what the negative piece is for town? Like, is this just a distraction from getting the heroes?

Assuming no one counterclaims I'm guessing that you both are unlikely to be lynched or killed at night? So what's the deal?



Leaving my vote where it is for now since we have time and I'm looking for answers.

As gac said, we need to kill the other and then survive until endgame. We don't have a kill power, so it's either lynch or wolf kill.

[gac3]

Has anyone besides me given either of them information as to your role? If not I can just put my information here and that should mean that they have nothing to use as leverage to get the wolves to kill the other

[CaoimhinTheCape]

And then Town will lynch me or her thinking we are siding with wolves. Or at least, I would. Though if MornShine doesn't come up and is set to auto-lynch they are probably going to be priority target to not lose a day (haven't done the math precisely)

Is there something special about MornShine? By my count, there could be up to 5 people up for auto-lynch tomorrow:

Lord Athos, rogue_alchemist, Bc56, MornShine, Logan1996

[Valmark]

Has anyone besides me given either of them information as to your role? If not I can just put my information here and that should mean that they have nothing to use as leverage to get the wolves to kill the other

At least one more people did, so it's not a great idea for Town.

I'm the lousiest Neutral ever.

- - - Updated - - -


Is there something special about MornShine? By my count, there could be up to 5 people up for auto-lynch tomorrow:

Lord Athos, rogue_alchemist, Bc56, MornShine, Logan1996

I did not realize that. Really that many people? Athos, Rogue and Logan are typically silent people though, so I expect them to come make a post.
bc was more active last game I believe.

I... Uh, this might get me killed, but Athos did talk to me in QT privately (one message) without showing up here.

[Duck999]

Unless the two feuding villains are both wolves lying about it, I doubt we'll get much out of killing them. They won't trade information to wolves in exchange for the other one being killed because no one is going to give them information at this point.

Point being, I think we should move off the Joy wagon unless we really believe they are both wolves taking a huge gambit.

[gac3]

Unless the two feuding villains are both wolves lying about it, I doubt we'll get much out of killing them. They won't trade information to wolves in exchange for the other one being killed because no one is going to give them information at this point.

Point being, I think we should move off the Joy wagon unless we really believe they are both wolves taking a huge gambit.

Got any recommendations for whom to switch too?

Since part of the problem is that they do have at least some information from me, here is what they should have gathered. Avatar Vecna is Town. Well specifically I told them that I would target AV and confirm whether or not they were neutral. I think in retrospect all I told them was that AV was not neutral.

[Valmark]

Got any recommendations for whom to switch too?

Since part of the problem is that they do have at least some information from me, here is what they should have gathered. Avatar Vecna is Town.

I can confirm this, though I can't say wether it's true or not since they could have lied.

[gac3]

I can confirm this, though I can't say wether it's true or not. By this I mean more because the role description implies there's a Fool among us, more then thinking gac lied.

That's true. My role text even describes the fool. Speaking of which, if the other "Devil" is out there, send me a message so we can compare the role descriptions and figure out if they are the same of have a clue as to which of us is the fool.

Edit: or Scry me tonight and see how I come up before you do that.

Edit 2: or just don't trust me. I wouldn't blame you

[AvatarVecna]

A couple points regarding the JoyWonderLove wagon:

1) JWL claimed the role after I made the potential existence of the role public knowledge. Valmark claimed the role privately to me prior to the public claim, so I believe Valmark's claim is legitimate. From there, the idea that JWL's claim is fake isn't that far-fetched: a wolf would want to claim a role that gives town reason not to lynch them, and a role that would be unlikely to be counterclaimed.

Claiming to be the second-half of a pair of neutrals who want each other dead gives town good reason to not kill them, because if JWL is telling the truth and town murders her, Valmark's goal changes from "hunt down my enemy" to "end game as soon as possible so I can't die", chasing him directly into the wolves arms.

But also, if JWL's claim is fake, the true second Feuding Villain has no reason to stand up and counterclaim. That role's starting goal is to track down their opposing neutral, and now they've got the pool narrowed down from 17 to 2 with no work on their part. Speaking up now just puts a spotlight on them. And I've already said how counterclaiming is an inherently sacrificial move, putting yourself on the chopping block in order to make sure that town isn't swayed by a liar...but what does a neutral care if town gets swayed by a liar?

2) At the time of my previous vote-count (approximately halfway through D2) there had been 25 posts. In the ~12 hours since, there have been 35 posts. More posts in half the time, and the significant event there was a major wagon forming on JWL. You know what they say about DADV.

3)


Not me! I'm always a slacker.



Very.

On another note, I don't like the wagon (and by wagon I mean all of two votes) on Valmark. With a game this quiet, I think we should keep Valmark around for a little more. He tends to do good analysis and the reason for voting him isn't that strong. Obviously he could be a wolf, but if he's not I think he's too valuable to lynch on what we have.

For now at least, I'll vote Xihirli. She pointed at Valmark early on and then didn't engage in discussion about her logic when Valmark refuted it.

Edit: Ninja'd by Xihirli changing votes. I stand by my vote because she still hasn't engaged in the discussion about her initial vote, instead just switching wagons for unrelated reasons. Not enough activity so you just switch your vote to someone else seemingly at random? Not a fan.


Unless the two feuding villains are both wolves lying about it, I doubt we'll get much out of killing them. They won't trade information to wolves in exchange for the other one being killed because no one is going to give them information at this point.

Point being, I think we should move off the Joy wagon unless we really believe they are both wolves taking a huge gambit.

These two posts look a lot like you going to bat defending JWL, and the logic given rings false in my ears. It sounds like you're trying to throw people off the trail, which is weird if you + JWL are both town, but extra weird if you actually believe JWL is a neutral who isn't particularly town-aligned. However, if you are a townie, duck, please at least consider how dangerous a prospect it is that you're suggesting. We supposedly have two neutrals alive and well right now who want the other to die, and then for the game to end as quickly as possible. You're suggesting that we assume they're both telling the truth, and insisting that therefore our best plan of action is to leave two self-professed non-town-aligned neutrals alive to conspire against each other with whoever can secure their victory the best. Do you really think town is who they're going to try and work with?

- - - Updated - - -

So here's a couple things I'll put out there for town as a whole:

1) If you are the actual second Feuding Villain, and you don't want to publicly claim because you don't want a target on your head from Valmark, please privately claim to me. I won't spill your secrets at this point, I just want to know if JWL is lying. If you contact me, I'll say I've received a claim and do my part to get JWL lynched.

2) I received a claim today a supposed seer, who claimed to have scried me as town. This makes sense to me, because I'm town, and also I can imagine why I might be a good N1 scry target. I was a little wary that they might be a wolf though. And then...I received a second claim from a supposed seer, who claimed to have scried me as town. Now, I may just be a simple country lawyer, so I put the question out to town as a whole: is there any reasonable explanation you can think of for this set-up that would explain why both seer claimants might be telling the truth? Like, Snowblaze did say they were gonna make more town roles for this game, and hasn't ever revealed the potential neutrals. Is it likely there's another non-wolf seer out there, in your opinion?

[Logan1996]

It was a joke because snow said yours were interesting.
All in all "research" was less helpful than expected. I was going to say that people who switched off of kgato after his claim were less likely to be wolves because it came so close to the end of the day it's easy to say you missed it due to work/sleep.
That said of the five that were voting kgato at the time, me, Logan, Xihiril, duck, and Libro, only Libro changed. So I expect Libro isn't a wolf. I am not a wolf. I have reason to believe Logan isn't a wolf (but could be wrong). That said it's a good chance Xihiril or duck might be wolves but I doubt they both are. I wouldn't expect more than one on a wagon at that point in the game.


A couple points regarding the JoyWonderLove wagon:

1) JWL claimed the role after I made the potential existence of the role public knowledge. Valmark claimed the role privately to me prior to the public claim, so I believe Valmark's claim is legitimate. From there, the idea that JWL's claim is fake isn't that far-fetched: a wolf would want to claim a role that gives town reason not to lynch them, and a role that would be unlikely to be counterclaimed.

Claiming to be the second-half of a pair of neutrals who want each other dead gives town good reason to not kill them, because if JWL is telling the truth and town murders her, Valmark's goal changes from "hunt down my enemy" to "end game as soon as possible so I can't die", chasing him directly into the wolves arms.

But also, if JWL's claim is fake, the true second Feuding Villain has no reason to stand up and counterclaim. That role's starting goal is to track down their opposing neutral, and now they've got the pool narrowed down from 17 to 2 with no work on their part. Speaking up now just puts a spotlight on them. And I've already said how counterclaiming is an inherently sacrificial move, putting yourself on the chopping block in order to make sure that town isn't swayed by a liar...but what does a neutral care if town gets swayed by a liar?

2) At the time of my previous vote-count (approximately halfway through D2) there had been 25 posts. In the ~12 hours since, there have been 35 posts. More posts in half the time, and the significant event there was a major wagon forming on JWL. You know what they say about DADV.

3)





These two posts look a lot like you going to bat defending JWL, and the logic given rings false in my ears. It sounds like you're trying to throw people off the trail, which is weird if you + JWL are both town, but extra weird if you actually believe JWL is a neutral who isn't particularly town-aligned. However, if you are a townie, duck, please at least consider how dangerous a prospect it is that you're suggesting. We supposedly have two neutrals alive and well right now who want the other to die, and then for the game to end as quickly as possible. You're suggesting that we assume they're both telling the truth, and insisting that therefore our best plan of action is to leave two self-professed non-town-aligned neutrals alive to conspire against each other with whoever can secure their victory the best. Do you really think town is who they're going to try and work with?

- - - Updated - - -

So here's a couple things I'll put out there for town as a whole:

1) If you are the actual second Feuding Villain, and you don't want to publicly claim because you don't want a target on your head from Valmark, please privately claim to me. I won't spill your secrets at this point, I just want to know if JWL is lying. If you contact me, I'll say I've received a claim and do my part to get JWL lynched.

2) I received a claim today a supposed seer, who claimed to have scried me as town. This makes sense to me, because I'm town, and also I can imagine why I might be a good N1 scry target. I was a little wary that they might be a wolf though. And then...I received a second claim from a supposed seer, who claimed to have scried me as town. Now, I may just be a simple country lawyer, so I put the question out to town as a whole: is there any reasonable explanation you can think of for this set-up that would explain why both seer claimants might be telling the truth? Like, Snowblaze did say they were gonna make more town roles for this game, and hasn't ever revealed the potential neutrals. Is it likely there's another non-wolf seer out there, in your opinion?

This is either evidence I should vote one of the feuding villains or Duck999

[Valmark]

I'll put a vote on JoyWonderLove, might as well try.

Something to pay attention to regarding the double seers:

"The Devil:

Your second sight is unparalleled, and you can use it to work out who is who, tracking down the heroes hiding amongst you... and the fool who thinks he can match your power.


The Foolish Villain:

You think you have second sight, but in reality it's just randomness. That won't stop you from proving that you can do anything with a bit of luck..."

This heavily implies one of the Seers has a chance of being right (the fool) while the other is always right. Statistically speaking, it's a flip of a coin.

[AvatarVecna]

That's a fair point, Valmark. Still makes me itchy, mind you.

I'm putting my vote on Duck999 for the moment, mostly to give the best chances I'll get an actual response on my post before EoD.

- - - Updated - - -


Got any recommendations for whom to switch too?

Since part of the problem is that they do have at least some information from me, here is what they should have gathered. Avatar Vecna is Town. Well specifically I told them that I would target AV and confirm whether or not they were neutral. I think in retrospect all I told them was that AV was not neutral.

Duck999: Libro, Logan1996, AvatarVecna
gac3: Elenna, Unavenger, Xihirli
JeenLeen: JoyWonderLove
JoyWonderLove: JeenLeen, trtl, CaoimhinTheCape, Valmark
Xihirli: Duck999

Given the context of the previous post, gac's wagon needs to stop being a contender.

[gac3]

That's a fair point, Valmark. Still makes me itchy, mind you.

I'm putting my vote on Duck999 for the moment, mostly to give the best chances I'll get an actual response on my post before EoD.

- - - Updated - - -



Duck999: Libro, Logan1996, AvatarVecna
gac3: Elenna, Unavenger, Xihirli
JeenLeen: JoyWonderLove
JoyWonderLove: JeenLeen, trtl, CaoimhinTheCape, Valmark
Xihirli: Duck999

Given the context of the previous post, gac's wagon needs to stop being a contender.

Then lets even the duck wagon and see what they have to say. Duck999

Edit: Just saw the part about my wagon. How kind. I agree with it.

[Valmark]

You all would do me a great favor if you tested this on Joy, you know?

- - - Updated - - -

I mean, if you are wrong about Duck they turn up Town- if you're wrong about Joy they turn up Neutral.

Isn't Joy the less risky option?

[gac3]

You all would do me a great favor if you tested this on Joy, you know?

- - - Updated - - -

I mean, if you are wrong about Duck they turn up Town- if you're wrong about Joy they turn up Neutral.

Isn't Joy the less risky option?

I'm really not sure. In a situation like this, I'm not sure what to do. I can see the threat of leaving you two alive but at the same time its lessened now that everybody knows who you are. I'd like to hear from some of the people that haven't weighed in since this happened.

[AvatarVecna]

You all would do me a great favor if you tested this on Joy, you know?

- - - Updated - - -

I mean, if you are wrong about Duck they turn up Town- if you're wrong about Joy they turn up Neutral.

Isn't Joy the less risky option?

Currently I think Joy and Duck are wolves, but I could be wrong about either one, and it's just as you've laid out here, but it's more complicated than that.

If we're right about Duck, that's -1 wolf. If we're wrong about Duck, that's -1 town.

If we're right about JWL, that's -1 wolf, and doesn't chase you into the wolves arms (since your foe is still out there). If we're wrong about JWL, not only is that -0 wolves, but it's +1 wolf because now signing up to help the scum is in your best interests.

Duck's lynch could end "-1 town/-0 neutral/-0 wolf" or "-0 town/-0 neutral/-1 wolf".

JWL's lynch could end "-0 town/-2 neutral/+1 wolf" or "-0 town/-0 neutral/-1 wolf".

Put in that context, killing Duck risks losing a townie. Killing JWL risks gaining an effective wolf in the form of making you a wolf-aligned neutral. Giving wolves another person they can trust to be on their side is a big risk, and it's not one I'm willing to take until I've at least heard what Duck has to say. I'm still willing to lynch JWL, but it's not my default here. Honestly both of them pale in comparison to testing the other seer claimant, but the possibility of them being a lucky Fool instead of a scum-seer is staying my hand.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh and it doesn't exactly help that the person advocating for JWL's lynch might have their win condition riding on JWL's death.


I'm really not sure. In a situation like this, I'm not sure what to do. I can see the threat of leaving you two alive but at the same time its lessened now that everybody knows who you are. I'd like to hear from some of the people that haven't weighed in since this happened.

Speaking of which, it actually looks like JWL hasn't spoken since claiming - including any response to Valmark publicly claiming to be the counter-role. Heck not even any confirmation that Valmark was the person JWL was talking privately with who they thought was the other Feuding Villain. I'm sure it was, but confirmation and some discussion from them would be appreciated.

[Valmark]

Guess that's true. For obvious reasons though, my vote's staying on Joy.

[gac3]

Some thoughts.

1. So someone else has claimed seer? I assume privately since I haven't seen it.

2. I think your JWL math for the outcomes doesn't match up with what you are saying.

If JWL if a wolf (and then Valmark turns to the wolves as you said is in their best interest):
then their lynch is -1 neutral/+0 wolves (because Valmark would replace them)
If JWL is the neutral then by your math it should be -1 neutral. or 2 if you think Valmark leaves the game.

3. Valmark claimed to me initially that they are not a neutral that leaves the game, though not necessarily true

4. If we leave both of them alive then doesn't that still favor one of them siding with the wolves (at least short term) trading votes for the death of the other?


edit:
5. reread AV's post. Why would valmark siding with the wolves be in their best interest if their foe isn't out there?

[Duck999]

These two posts look a lot like you going to bat defending JWL, and the logic given rings false in my ears. It sounds like you're trying to throw people off the trail, which is weird if you + JWL are both town, but extra weird if you actually believe JWL is a neutral who isn't particularly town-aligned. However, if you are a townie, duck, please at least consider how dangerous a prospect it is that you're suggesting. We supposedly have two neutrals alive and well right now who want the other to die, and then for the game to end as quickly as possible. You're suggesting that we assume they're both telling the truth, and insisting that therefore our best plan of action is to leave two self-professed non-town-aligned neutrals alive to conspire against each other with whoever can secure their victory the best. Do you really think town is who they're going to try and work with?

I didn't consider the game-to-end-as-quickly-as-possible part of it, but the reason I said what I did is that all they can offer the wolves is a vote. It's not like they're giving any information to the wolves because everything special they know is now public knowledge (and at the time of my post I assumed they both knew nothing besides who the other was). Both of them offer the wolves the same thing, and therefore neither of them can trust the wolves right now to align with them and not the other. Therefore, I think it's better to look for a wolf where there might actually be a wolf and not just a neutral who may possibly later give the wolves another vote.

And judging from your last post, it seems you agree with me.

Put in that context, killing Duck risks losing a townie. Killing JWL risks gaining an effective wolf in the form of making you a wolf-aligned neutral. Giving wolves another person they can trust to be on their side is a big risk, and it's not one I'm willing to take until I've at least heard what Duck has to say. I'm still willing to lynch JWL, but it's not my default here. Honestly both of them pale in comparison to testing the other seer claimant, but the possibility of them being a lucky Fool instead of a scum-seer is staying my hand.

Is this not saying that lynching someone besides JoyWonderLove is better, even if it risks hitting a townie? My reasoning was not as thought out as yours, but in the concept, we seem to agree that it's better to kill someone besides the neutrals.

[gac3]

I didn't consider the game-to-end-as-quickly-as-possible part of it, but the reason I said what I did is that all they can offer the wolves is a vote. It's not like they're giving any information to the wolves because everything special they know is now public knowledge (and at the time of my post I assumed they both knew nothing besides who the other was).

I will quote the posts that were right beofre this below. They show that it was made clear that Valmark at the very least did know more. No telling what JWL knows.


Has anyone besides me given either of them information as to your role? If not I can just put my information here and that should mean that they have nothing to use as leverage to get the wolves to kill the other


At least one more people did, so it's not a great idea for Town.

I'm the lousiest Neutral ever.

- - - Updated - - -



I did not realize that. Really that many people? Athos, Rogue and Logan are typically silent people though, so I expect them to come make a post.
bc was more active last game I believe.

I... Uh, this might get me killed, but Athos did talk to me in QT privately (one message) without showing up here.

Edit: Point being, Duck claims to have thought they had no information, after I said that they had some and Valmark said they had even more than that.

[AvatarVecna]

Some thoughts.

1. So someone else has claimed seer? I assume privately since I haven't seen it.

Correct. As previously mentioned, I've received 7 claims in private. It's 8 now, btw. You people are mad.


2. I think your JWL math for the outcomes doesn't match up with what you are saying.

If JWL if a wolf (and then Valmark turns to the wolves as you said is in their best interest):
then their lynch is -1 neutral/+0 wolves (because Valmark would replace them)
If JWL is the neutral then by your math it should be -1 neutral. or 2 if you think Valmark leaves the game.

Valmark only turns to the wolves if the first part of their goal (get the other Feuding killed) is completed. If JWL flips wolf, Valmark wants the game to keep going to give the best chance of the other Feuding dying before town or wolves all die. If JWL flips Feuding, Valmark's goal switches from "keep the game going" to "end the game as quickly as possible so i don't risk dying". Wolves can end the game quicker than town can, so Valmark has a carrot for working with them, but also has a stick for working with them because any wolf could easily send a PM like "we know who you are and if you dont vote/use your night power how we say to use it, we'll kill you".

The math is essentially: if JWL is a wolf, we lose 1 wolf and that's that. But if JWL is in fact the Feuding Neutral, then killing her not only loses a neutral (-1 neutral), but drives another neutral into working with scum for the above carrot and stick reasons (-1 neutral/+1 wolf).


3. Valmark claimed to me initially that they are not a neutral that leaves the game, though not necessarily true

That could be true. That's still an anti-town conclusion.


4. If we leave both of them alive then doesn't that still favor one of them siding with the wolves (at least short term) trading votes for the death of the other?

That's a risk no matter what. The best solution for town would be if they both died without us having to waste a lynch on either one, but the wolves aren't going to be doing us that favor. They're very effectively wolf-aligned neutral that town has to work hard to make town-aligned. It's unfortunate, but that's that.


edit:
5. reread AV's post. Why would valmark siding with the wolves be in their best interest if their foe isn't out there?

Until the other Feuding is dead, Valmark will want the game to go on as long as possible - if town or wolves die too quickly, then the game ends before the other Feuding can die. But as soon as the other Feuding is dead, Valmark's goal switches to getting the game to end as quickly as possible, to minimize the chances of Valmark dying as well. Town Victories are usually lengthy unless town is very on-the-ball, while Wolf Victories can occur comparatively quickly. In any given game, you're almost always closer to wolf victory than town victory at any given moment. Working with wolves to end the game ASAP would be in Valmark's best interest once the other feuding is dead.


I didn't consider the game-to-end-as-quickly-as-possible part of it, but the reason I said what I did is that all they can offer the wolves is a vote. It's not like they're giving any information to the wolves because everything special they know is now public knowledge (and at the time of my post I assumed they both knew nothing besides who the other was). Both of them offer the wolves the same thing, and therefore neither of them can trust the wolves right now to align with them and not the other. Therefore, I think it's better to look for a wolf where there might actually be a wolf and not just a neutral who may possibly later give the wolves another vote.

And judging from your last post, it seems you agree with me.


Is this not saying that lynching someone besides JoyWonderLove is better, even if it risks hitting a townie? My reasoning was not as thought out as yours, but in the concept, we seem to agree that it's better to kill someone besides the neutrals.

I didn't disagree with you, I just wanted to hear your reasoning. See if you flubbed, or if your explanation still rang hollow.

[Xihirli]

Seer claim. Jumping into Duck999, Sorry Duck.

[Valmark]

Does this mean either me or Joy are likely to be killed during the night? Since it helps the wolves to solve the dispute.

[AvatarVecna]

Does this mean either me or Joy are likely to be killed during the night? Since it helps the wolves to solve the dispute.

Difficult to say. There's pros and cons for wolves killing you in the night, so a lot of it ends up coming down to WIFOM. Would it be better for wolves to leave two uncounterclaimed unflipped neutrals alive so town spends the rest of the game worrying that maybe JWL fake-claimed, or would it better for the wolves to kill one of the claimants to get the other to side with them going forward? Which of those two situations do they want town to think is the case?

[Valmark]

...right, Duck999. Sorry but my best bet right now is that you are a wolf so that Joy becomes more likely to be one and the wolves leave us alive to get Town to lynch her.

Assuming she even is the neutral in question.

[Duck999]

Seer claim. Jumping into Duck999, Sorry Duck.

Wait, now I'm confused. Did a seer claim to scry me as a wolf? Is "seer claim" related to your vote for me?

And @gac, I believe I initially assumed those to be relevant to the information they had on who the other feuding villain was.

[gac3]

Has anyone besides me given either of them information as to your role? If not I can just put my information here and that should mean that they have nothing to use as leverage to get the wolves to kill the other


Wait, now I'm confused. Did a seer claim to scry me as a wolf? Is "seer claim" related to your vote for me?

And @gac, I believe I initially assumed those to be relevant to the information they had on who the other feuding villain was.

The seer claim was relevant to the fact they were voting for the person who claimed seer up until they switched their vote.

[Elenna]

Ok, moving off gac for the seer claim, and onto... Duck999, I guess, because they seem to be the only viable other wagon right now, if we don't want to kill the feuding villains.

[AvatarVecna]

Wait, now I'm confused. Did a seer claim to scry me as a wolf? Is "seer claim" related to your vote for me?

And @gac, I believe I initially assumed those to be relevant to the information they had on who the other feuding villain was.

There are three main wagons: you, gac3 (claimed seer), and JWL (claimed neutral). You and I have put effort into arguing that JAL shouldn't be lynched. Guess who that leaves as the viable counterwagon to the seerclaim?

(That you're voting Xihirli doesn't make her decision harder.)

[Elenna]

And, oh, right, Duck had that D1 post that I found suspicious. Yeah, I'm happy with this vote. Less happy with my ability to remember/keep track of what's happening in this game. :smalltongue:

[Valmark]

Did Duck argue against himself by mistake? I thought he knew where he was ending up but this reaction makes me think the opposite.

[AvatarVecna]

I mean, I'm willing to move off Duck and onto somebody else if I hear a good argument. But thus far all I've really heard from anybody is a decent argument to vote JWL (from some people) and a decent argument to not vote JWL (from other people, including Duck and I). If Duck doesn't want JWL or himself or the seer, lynched, he's gonna have to at least make a solid argument sometime in the next 12 hours, cuz those are the three wagons right now.

This is honestly more of what I was looking for when I set Duck up to give opinions. That it didn't come wasn't a good look, honestly.

[Duck999]

The problem is I don't have any strong reads right now. If kgato had flipped wolf there would have been lots to look at on the gac wagon, but that didn't happen, so here we are.

Right now my vote is on Xi for the constant posting with very little substance because it's all I got.

And now I'm going to go look at a few players to see if I can find anything more concrete to start a new wagon.

- - - Updated - - -


Thanks for the vote count. What is this networking stuff? This is only my second game and I'm still trying to figure stuff out.

JoyWonderLove because I don't have any suspicions and Valmark has enough votes for now, JowWonderLove has the next most compelling case against them.

This is the second of trtl's two posts. Maybe you can excuse it for newness, but there is a point where you can't just let the new people go on that.


Alright, so great that we know who the two Feuding Villains are. Maybe. If stuff is out in the open, would either of you mind sharing what the negative piece is for town? Like, is this just a distraction from getting the heroes?

Assuming no one counterclaims I'm guessing that you both are unlikely to be lynched or killed at night? So what's the deal?



Leaving my vote where it is for now since we have time and I'm looking for answers.

I'd love to hear what Caomhin has now that things have largely been answered.


This is either evidence I should vote one of the feuding villains or Duck999

Logan has been barely present and then this. This is probably worse than what I have Xi on so I'm glad to switch there.

Also, my wagon looks sketchy, so if/when I die and flip look at that. It mostly exists only to keep the seer claimant alive, which is reasonable, but almost every member of it (except obviously AV/gac) contributed nothing to it. Honestly, outside of AV I think Valmark has the best justification for voting me and it isn't for town.

My wagon started because I was asked to give reads, but I don't have any strong wolf reads, just lots of people who haven't contributed much and therefore can't really be read much.

- - - Updated - - -


I'm putting my vote on Duck999 for the moment, mostly to give the best chances I'll get an actual response on my post before EoD.


I mean, I'm willing to move off Duck and onto somebody else if I hear a good argument. But thus far all I've really heard from anybody is a decent argument to vote JWL (from some people) and a decent argument to not vote JWL (from other people, including Duck and I). If Duck doesn't want JWL or himself or the seer, lynched, he's gonna have to at least make a solid argument sometime in the next 12 hours, cuz those are the three wagons right now.

Here's what I can see. My wagon started because I'd respond before the day ended. However, there are numerous other players who even if prodded at the beginning of the day might not give answers by day end, and I believe I should be kept alive over any one of those players.

[AvatarVecna]

The above analysis, and some private conversations, have made me feel better about Duck being town, so for now I'm willing to move my vote. And certainly I've got a history of complaining about inactives and insisting they should be voted unless you're sure you've caught a wolf. And "not being the seer" isn't a great reason to be voting somebody anyway, it's just less bad than voting the seer.

MornShine, as part of my longstanding argument that you should lynch somebody before they autolynch unless you feel really strongly about a particular person being wolfy.

[gac3]

Mornshine but nobody is autolynching today right?

[AvatarVecna]

Mornshine but nobody is autolynching today right?

I don't think so. But MornShine and LordAthos only have a single post in-thread each so far. Everybody else is more active and I don't really have great ideas on who to lynch instead. Maybe Xihirli? This feels a bit different from her town game in a few of the previous rounds...

[Duck999]

I'm down to vote against Mornshine. First of all, it's not me.
Second, it's someone who is inactive which is my argument against most of the people I'd want to lynch right now.

[Valmark]

I don't think so. But MornShine and LordAthos only have a single post in-thread each so far. Everybody else is more active and I don't really have great ideas on who to lynch instead. Maybe Xihirli? This feels a bit different from her town game in a few of the previous rounds...

You mean it feels like she's been more active? Because that's what I got from her posts this game around.

[AvatarVecna]

Duck999: Libro, Logan1996, Xihirli, Valmark, Elenna
gac3: Unavenger
JeenLeen: JoyWonderLove
JoyWonderLove: JeenLeen, trtl, CaoimhinTheCape
MornShine: AvatarVecna, gac3, Duck999

This look accurate to everybody, or did I miss something?

- - - Updated - - -


You mean it feels like she's been more active? Because that's what I got from her posts this game around.

That's correct.

[Valmark]

Question, why MornShine? Back when I voted them I thought they were the only one, but we now know there's plenty inactives

[AvatarVecna]

Question, why MornShine? Back when I voted them I thought they were the only one, but we now know there's plenty inactives

Why MornShine specifically? No particular reason, exactly. They're far from the only inactive person, they're just the least active AFAICT. MornShine and Lord Athos each only have one post, and I've had some (very limited) private conversation with LA. There's a bunch of people who should be posting more - Logan1996, Unavenger, trtl, bc56...heck even Elenna's barely been here, but she's at least voting on a major wagon with one of her only posts so far this game. That's seven people who basically aren't actually participating in the game much at all, at least not as far as I can see.

[Xihirli]

I'm evil, and I have a responsibility to uphold evil. This one is personal. Ish.

[Duck999]

I'm evil, and I have a responsibility to uphold evil. This one is personal. Ish.

But I'm not voting for you anymore?

[Lord Athos]

MornShine

Catching up to the thread, I don't feel comfortable lynching Duck or the claimed seer. JoyWonderLove maybe, but since I don't have a really good alternative, Mornshine seems like the best option.

[Xihirli]

But I'm not voting for you anymore?

Okay. Good to know.

[MornShine]

Firstly, apologies for my lack of posting. Hopefully, I'll have more time shortly.

Secondly, Duck999.

Duck seems suspicious to me, both for their aforementioned actions and for their refutations of accusations; JWL supposedly being a Neutral was unexpected, but we stand to lose enough from lynching them that, until further evidence arises, it is imprudent to lynch them regardless, and I don't really suspect them; and anyone else is mostly irrelevant, given that, all things considered, I would prefer not to be lynched.

Besides, I would tend to think that a lack of posting is a reasonable reason to lynch someone, but only when one lacks strong inclinations to the contrary; the lack of evidence on me might indicate nefarious purpose, but the evidence of nefarious purpose on others is definite. Regardless, my wagon seems mostly arbitrary, so perhaps it will dissipate regardless. :smallsmile:

Maybe someday I'll have a well-crafted villainous monologue for y'all, but for now, here's my analysis.

[AvatarVecna]

This is really frickin' weird. We keep looking at inactives and considering CFDing them, and they appear like magic to share their thoughts! Maybe we should just keep moving up the lost? :smalltongueout:

[gac3]

So Morn showed up. I would then like to go back to my previous suspicions of Duck fo Xihirli. Duck already has plenty of votes for them and has done a good job trying to convince me that they are town, while Xihirli has been acting differently than normal, and was my other big suspect fromt he Kgato wagon.
So... Xihirli

[Snowblaze]

Feeling nice enough to give you all another vote count (that is, I’m not sure it’s accurate and I want someone who has actually been around these last few hours to tell me if it’s wrong. Of course I have an ulterior motive!)
JoyWonderLove 3 (JeenLeen, trtl, CaoimhinTheCape)
JeenLeen 1 (JoyWonderLove)
MornShine 3 (AvatarVecna, Duck999, Lord Athos)
Gac3 1 (Unavenger )
Duck999 6 (Libro, Logan1996, Xihirli, Valmark, Elenna, MornShine)
Xihirli 1 (gac3)

[AvatarVecna]

While I'd rather shift to another inactive rather than pressure an active player, at the same time this ISO of Xihirli isn't exactly the most compelling thing ever. I think I'll move onto JeenLeen to get some activity flowing, at least for now.


Yeah, that's fair. Xihirli.


Why doesn't my vote count for analysis purposes?


Amateurs, the lot of you. I've been in the villain game for... sifts through her own bull**** canon for awhile... three thousand years, give or take a universe in which I have been a despot for four eternities.


I've never met an evil turtle.


Time is but a whisper, death but a window. I'll be back.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bf_9jD588ao&list=PLBdeHt27rzNOImt0p1Kv1hW8PZsMj04_1&index=33&t=0s
Line up, sign up
If you're looking for some sin
And a dirty way to win, yeah!

Get pissed, enlist
Tap into the devil within
And let the villainy begin

We're joining forces
We're making clever quips
We revel in malevolence
Four thousand horses of the apocalypse

Giddy up, Gotham
Giddy up, up, up

We're going rogue, rogue, rogue!
Rogues are we!
We are the harlots and the hussies
Rogues are we!
We are the swindlers and the cheats

Rogues are we!
We're rising up from the underground
Rogues are we!
We're taking over your streets, oh yeah!

Riddle me this
I've got a puzzle that put you to tears
I'm cruel but never crass

Look no further than here
To see a penguin without peer
I've got a certain touch of class

I made a fear toxin in the form of gas
Then I wear a scary mask

I've got ice in my veins
Venom on the vine
I'll weed out any wussy

I'm a pretty little kitty
But I ain't no-
Rogues are we!

We are the harlots and the hussies
Rogues are we!
We are the swindlers and the cheats
Rogues are we!
We're rising up from the underground
Rogues are we!
We're taking over your streets
Come on!

Rogues are we!

Rogues!
Assemble!
Gather!
Unite!

And take a mental snapshot of this most auspicious night!
We’ve got strength in numbers now, the battle can begin...
Hoo ha ha!

...We’re waging war on Batman, and the war is ours to win!

Hoo ha ha ha!

Rise up! Like a natural disaster
We take The Bat, and then we take back the town!
We harm in harmony, arm in arm we hold our stance
In solidarity, he hasn’t a chance!

Rogues are we!

Rise up! Like a natural disaster
We take The Bat, and then we take back the town
We harm in harmony, arm in arm we hold our stance
In solidarity, he hasn't a chance

Let's dance!

Rogues are we!



Let's start a wagon. kgato503.


Twenty-three.


Apogee1... well played. Well played.


I wouldn’t count on that.


If you can.


I'm going to point the finger at Valmark right now for his response to the Apogee Gambit, calling into question the viability of counterclaims in the future. Could be a play at undermining one of town's best tools there.


Other people have done it.



I’m sure Vecna has. And this isn’t like you, Vecna. I’m shocked, shocked I tell you, that you would forget about Kgato’s death when you’ve discussed it. It’s almost like you don’t care who died D1 as long as it wasn’t one of your buddies.


Gotten death scenes ready.


Well, I am evil.


You know what, yes. The lack of activity tells me that the wolves are happy with Valmark taking the L so let's see if they do anything to save JoyWonderLove, my best friend.


I’m a fan.


I, too, find that odd. gac3 really does read to me like somebody just coasting by and putting in a vote because it's expected. And with the claim on Joy I'm good fire drilling onto Gac.


Seer claim. Jumping into Duck999, Sorry Duck.


I'm evil, and I have a responsibility to uphold evil. This one is personal. Ish.


Okay. Good to know.

[Logan1996]

I'll switch to try to get some pressure on Xi and see if they can give me reason to not think they are a wolf. Xihirli. Hopefully you can provide something useful to the discussion.

[Xihirli]

Hopefully. But I don't have much aside from a private claim to Vecna. I can prove my power, but I can't prove it's not a wolf ability except that in an all-PR game this isn't a power wolves tend to end up with, for whatever that's worth.

[AvatarVecna]

Feeling nice enough to give you all another vote count (that is, I’m not sure it’s accurate and I want someone who has actually been around these last few hours to tell me if it’s wrong. Of course I have an ulterior motive!)

*sighs*

Duck999: Libro, Xihirli, Valmark, Elenna, MornShine
gac3: Unavenger
JeenLeen: JoyWonderLove, AvatarVecna
JoyWonderLove: JeenLeen, trtl, CaoimhinTheCape
Mornshine: Duck999, Lord Athos
Xihirli: gac3, Logan1996

Also, the following people have uncrossed votes. idk how that'll affect things offhand.


gac3


Duck999


Duck999


Mornshine

[Snowblaze]

Yup, even the narrator is plotting stuff! Thanks, though. And for future reference, I’ll count the most recent vote. Crossing out is preferred but not essential.

[AvatarVecna]

Yup, even the narrator is plotting stuff! Thanks, though. And for future reference, I’ll count the most recent vote. Crossing out is preferred but not essential.

Snowblaze. Who's with me?! :smalltongueout:

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah okay joke's over, back to poking JeenLeen.

[trtl]

This is the second of trtl's two posts. Maybe you can excuse it for newness, but there is a point where you can't just let the new people go on that.

Fair enough, honestly I just feel like I don't have much to contribute. My thoughts on the current wagons:

Duck999: maybe I missed something, but the reasoning for this wagon seemed to be 1) he defended the feuding villains (an argument I agree with) and "mostly to give the best chances I'll get an actual response on my post before EoD" Both of these feel weak, so I'll pass.

gac3: we had a wagon on him yesterday and nobody made any strong effort to defend him, either he is town or his fellow wolves were patient. Neither one would be very surprising, but I feel it tips gac3 just a little bit to the side of town.

JeenLeen: I kind of agree with this one, I didn't really follow any of the arguments for killing kgato after he claimed (but before the counterclaim).

JoyWonderLove: Meh... I'm moving my vote, nothing has really happened since JeenLeen posted about JoyWonderLove, and I already said I'm suspicious of JeenLeen.

Mornshine: I don't understand this one at all, lol. Nothing very suspicious or reasurring over here in my eyes.

Xihirli: The evidence against Xihirli seems to be that she has been more active than usual. Firstly I don't have enough prior experience with Xihirli to confirm or deny that. Secondly, I'm no sure of that makes them more likely wolf or more likely town. Besides, there can be other explanations for more or less activity. For example, my role doesn't give me any additional information, so I don't really feel the need to post as much as I would if I was, say, the seer.

[Duck999]

We got the response (surprisingly), so I'm down to switch to Jeenleen at this point just in a desperate attempt at self-preservation.

Assuming I die today, I think it's worth it to look at some of the people who just jumped on wagons today (which there were many of). I feel like despite all that happened, it isn't that bad a day for flying under the radar if you were trying to.

[rogue_alchemist]

Man this holiday weekend (in the US) kills me on my games. Especially ones like this that a lot happens without me being there. I have tried to catch up and read 2 days worth of posts, but it can get kinda muddled. It seems the argument against JeenLeen is the best one to me. I will try to check back before voting ends to see if new evidence comes to light. Rolls without much info are the hardest to play, but here we are. At least in this game (as opposed to X-men, where I felt completely lost and abused) I can follow more of what is going on in this thread.

[AvatarVecna]

2 hours to checkpoint, and 2 highly inactive people (plus Duck, who was inactive prior to getting wagoned) emerge out of the woodwork and pull a CFD. Oh yeah, that's real legit.

Duck999

[Lord Athos]

Yeah, I agree.
Duck999

[CaoimhinTheCape]

2 hours to checkpoint, and 2 highly inactive people (plus Duck, who was inactive prior to getting wagoned) emerge out of the woodwork and pull a CFD. Oh yeah, that's real legit.


Honestly, that's my thinking too. Vote: Duck999


Even with AV's logic against picking one of the feuding villains, I feel like we should try to solve that sooner rather than later. You're saying that if we kill one, the other will work with the wolves but we'd still have that issue now - if we get to a tipping point and wolves+Feuding Villain is majority, that just leaves two options to join the wolves rather than one.

But with one hour left I don't see anything changing.

Duck, do you have any last minute claim?



And now we have a quick push toward Duck. Still happy with my vote but people suddenly coming out of nowhere is the same thing that made me switch.

I don't like Joy claiming and then basically disappearing. AV, you asked for any other fueding villain claim be private to you, have you heard anything?

Unavenger is still on gac despite all of this. I don't like it but I'll assume that's more from inactivity than actually wanting gac lynched. Jeen hasn't been around to pick a side either now that Joy is not on the block.

Bc56 is now the only inactive who would be up for autolynch.



Votecount

JoyWonderLove 1 (JeenLeen)
JeenLeen 4 (JoyWonderLove, trtl, Duck999, rogue_alchemist)
Gac3 1 (Unavenger)
Duck999 8 (Libro, Xihirli, Valmark, Elenna, MornShine, AvatarVecna, Lord Athos, CaoimhinTheCape)
Xihirli 2 (gac3, Logan1996)

Not voting: bc56

[AvatarVecna]

Even with AV's logic against picking one of the feuding villains, I feel like we should try to solve that sooner rather than later. You're saying that if we kill one, the other will work with the wolves but we'd still have that issue now - if we get to a tipping point and wolves+Feuding Villain is majority, that just leaves two options to join the wolves rather than one.

The logic I presented against the feuding villains was deliberately faulty in a couple different ways, although this wasn't one of them. If town collectively agrees to not lynch the Feuding Villains, and instead hunts for wolves elsewhere, neither of them wants that. They each want the other dead before all town or all wolves are eliminated. If town won't do it, and murderer can't do it, that drives the Feuding Villains into the arms of the wolves anyway.

This was a pretty big hole in my initial argument, and it (among others) was put there because I wanted to see if Duck would point out the inconsistency in my thinking even though we were both arguing in JWL's defense. He did not. This hasn't made me feel any better about JWL, really.


And now we have a quick push toward Duck. Still happy with my vote but people suddenly coming out of nowhere is the same thing that made me switch.

Agreed. It's making me twitchy, although at the same time if the three of us switch to anybody (except JeenLeen), Duck still gets lynched. Granted, my private conversation with Lord Athos is making me feel better about them, but still.


I don't like Joy claiming and then basically disappearing. AV, you asked for any other fueding villain claim be private to you, have you heard anything?

I haven't heard anything from anybody in that regard. Privately, Valmark has said that the text of JWL's claim matches Valmark's own role QT precisely, but it's possible Valmark is lying to me about that?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I haven't heard anything from anybody in that regard. Privately, Valmark has said that the text of JWL's claim matches Valmark's own role QT precisely, but it's possible Valmark is lying to me about that?

It's maybe possible that Val is already working with wolves and gave JWL the info needed to save them? That feels like a stretch though, so unless someone else claimed Feuding Villain I'm inclined to believe it's the two of them.

[Grand Arbiter]

Apologies, I had business to attend. Deaths create far too much paperwork.

It would seem there was quite a stir in my absence, now as to what has transpired...

1. gac3 - Null read, just can't seem to figure them out.
2. AvatarVecna - If AV puts in this level of effort, I'm inclined to believe they're town. This is with Midwest Mafia/WW as a reference.
3. Unavenger - null read.
4. Lord Athos - mild town lean
5. Valmark - likely feuding villain #1, neutral
6. JoyWonderLove - likely feuding villain #2, neutral.
7. Elenna - relatively inactive, mild town lean
8. Xihirli - The day Xihirli is an easy read is the day before the apocalypse comes.
9. JeenLeen - inactive, difficult read. neutral maybe
10. Libro - Town and loving it. Would have been more involved this day phase if the last 24 hours weren't comprised of home improvement and sleep.
11. trtl - likely hero if Duck flips, based on last minute vote
12. Duck999 - Compounded with the 2 other last-minute JeenLeen votes, seems fishy as hell based on their arguments/logic.
13. Apogee1 - escaped, confirmed neutral
14. kgato503 - deceased, confirmed town
15. rogue_alchemist - likely hero if Duck flips, based on last minute vote.
16. Bc56 - inactive, currently autolynch bait.
17. Aventine - deceased, confirmed town.
18. CaoimhinTheCape - mild town lean.
19. MornShine - Inactive, leaning town/neutral based on their vote and post content.
20. Logan1996 - inactive, neutral lean.

Fair is fowl, and fowl is fair.
The bell tolls for thee Duck999
(I'm leaving my vote on Duck)

[AvatarVecna]

It's maybe possible that Val is already working with wolves and gave JWL the info needed to save them? That feels like a stretch though, so unless someone else claimed Feuding Villain I'm inclined to believe it's the two of them.

More or less my thoughts as well.

Oh and I saw bc56 online a little while ago, and shot them a PM about the game just in case they'd forgotten to subscribe to the thread and just forgot/haven't been checking. Here's hoping they show up.