What level to face an ancient red dragon?

[Danielqueue1]

World building a campaign where the pace will be set by the characters. If they want to have a long rest between every encounter they can, but there will be consequences.

Specifically there will be a running timer where after a certain number of months pass things happen. If they wait too long (my spitballing puts it at 500 in game days) a plot event happens and the campaign turns darker. "Golden ending" requires them to defeat the final boss before this event. If they wait too long after the event there wont be too many people left alive to give them any more quests.

The final boss will be homebrewed but similar in most aspects to an ancient Red Dragon. The party will know exactly where to find this boss and what it is starting at level 5. The party will know there is a timer, but won't know the exact day the event will occur, or the nature of the event, unless they seek that information out in game.

The party will have choices on where to travel and what quests to take. The more challenging the quests, the more XP they get, but the more likely to face setbacks. What level should a group of 4 characters be before reasonably being able to face an ancient red dragon in its lair? (Party will likely not base their builds entirely on the fight but have a good basic sense of tactics)

I will use that level as a baseline for xp awarding. For "Level appropriate" quests.

Also how much time would you recommend to both allow the party to have some downtime, abandon some quests they aren't ready for, while still making them think before heading all the way back to the capital city because they have better prices.

Edit- (additional information)
Potions of fire resistance will start out normal price, get more expensive later on, then after the event, you will basically have to kill someone to take theirs.

There will be a dragonslayer weapon at the end of a major quest chain, but only one.

There will be access to magic items, but it's going to take a lot of time and a lot of money to get something specific.

[JackPhoenix]

Well, that depends on a lot of circumstances. It takes about 300 commoners armed with light crossbows to reliably take down a standard ancient red dragon in a single round. If they can get enough mercenaries (or just villagers fed up with the dragon burninating their thatched-roof cottages), they can potentially take it down right at level 5.

On the other hand, with minions and proper preparation, the dragon could be a challenge even at level 20.

Math-wise, a solo ancient red dragon is worth entire daily XP budget for 4 level 14 characters. It's about 3x deadly encounter, which is certainly doable when it's your only encounter in a day, especially with foreknowledge and a time to prepare.

[MaxWilson]

World building a campaign where the pace will be set by the characters. If they want to have a long rest between every encounter they can, but there will be consequences.

Specifically there will be a running timer where after a certain number of months pass things happen. If they wait too long (my spitballing puts it at 500 in game days) a plot event happens and the campaign turns darker. "Golden ending" requires them to defeat the final boss before this event. If they wait too long after the event there wont be too many people left alive to give them any more quests.

The final boss will be homebrewed but similar in most aspects to an ancient Red Dragon. The party will know exactly where to find this boss and what it is starting at level 5. The party will know there is a timer, but won't know the exact day the event will occur, or the nature of the event, unless they seek that information out in game.

The party will have choices on where to travel and what quests to take. The more challenging the quests, the more XP they get, but the more likely to face setbacks. What level should a group of 4 characters be before reasonably being able to face an ancient red dragon in its lair? (Party will likely not base their builds entirely on the fight but have a good basic sense of tactics)

I will use that level as a baseline for xp awarding. For "Level appropriate" quests.

Also how much time would you recommend to both allow the party to have some downtime, abandon some quests they aren't ready for, while still making them think before heading all the way back to the capital city because they have better prices.

Edit- (additional information)
Potions of fire resistance will start out normal price, get more expensive later on, then after the event, you will basically have to kill someone to take theirs.

There will be a dragonslayer weapon at the end of a major quest chain, but only one.

There will be access to magic items, but it's going to take a lot of time and a lot of money to get something specific.

There's a difference between when it's feasible and when it's comfortable. In general I'd say if you want players to be comfortable, to feel like they're ready, that is probably in Tier 4, around 17th-18th level. It's totally feasible for them to do it sooner with the right tactics (and intel) but this is presumably the first time they're going to be doing this, so they may not tumble to the right tactics and may not have the intel to recognize the right tactics. (For all they know, an Ancient Red Dragon may be 2000 HP and AC 30 with a 300 HP breath weapon--how would they know otherwise?)

May I add that in addition to giving them XP as they finish quests, you may want to also give them information about the dragon. Stories about it fighting other creatures may be especially valuable, to baseline their expectations. Did it run from six Storm Giants, and then come back later and take them on one at a time out of revenge? That tells them that at least it can't brute force six Storm Giants. Was it seriously wounded taking down a Pit Fiend and a Lich, and ever afterwards has feared and hated the lich who did the job? That tells them something useful, and maybe the PCs can get extra info from the lich, for a price (a favor?). Did it knock down a castle wall with three smashes from its tail? Well, at least they know it's not one smash! Etc.


Well, that depends on a lot of circumstances. It takes about 300 commoners armed with light crossbows to reliably take down a standard ancient red dragon in a single round. If they can get enough mercenaries (or just villagers fed up with the dragon burninating their thatched-roof cottages), they can potentially take it down right at level 5.

Methinks thou art neglecting to account for disadvantage from Frightful Presence.

[FabulousFizban]

do it in tier 2. Right as they're are beginning to feel like awesome heroes, remind them that there is always a bigger fish. Then, make it a long term villain.

[JackPhoenix]

Methinks thou art neglecting to account for disadvantage from Frightful Presence.

Frightful Presence requires an action from the dragon, and the dragon has the same initiative modifier as the commoners, so it may not come up, depending on the roll.

You'd be better off with elven commoners, as longbow provides better range than a light crossbow and they have better Dex... they'd both have better damage and double chance to hit compared to anything else. And the hectopeasant calculations I remember may have been based on adult dragon, but the result is the same... enough minions with ranged weapon will take down anything*.

*Anything not immune to damage that has to get in range, but that should be obvious

[ProsecutorGodot]

do it in tier 2. Right as they're are beginning to feel like awesome heroes, remind them that there is always a bigger fish. Then, make it a long term villain.

Hey I've seen this show before

EDIT: and to be clear, if you do use this as an introduction for this sort of villain, leave an escape option. It's unlikely they'll be able to actually defeat the dragon at this level.

[Zhorn]

It takes about 300 commoners armed with light crossbows to reliably take down a standard ancient red dragon in a single round.

Those number didn't sound right to me, had to double check

Commoners with a +2 Proficiency Bonus and 10(+0) DEX will still need a natural 20 to hit an Ancient Red's 22 AC.
With a Light Crossbow range of 80/320 up against Frightful Presence range 120 DC 21, they'll either be attack at long range disadvantage, or be within Frightful Presence range.
As the DC is 21, commoners have a 10(+0) WIS, and natural 20's only impact attack rolls and death saving throws, this DC is impossible for commoners to beat. Every commoner inside that range WILL be frightened by the Ancient Red on the first turn, and every commoner outside that range will be at long range. Assuming the Ancient Red is in flight (because why wouldn't it be), the distance closure from long range to short range is going to happen on the Ancient Red's turn, in which case it'll get to use Frightful Presence... ie; all the commoners will be attacking at disadvantage anyway.

so only being able to hit on a natural 20 (1/20 chance), at disadvantage (1/20 x 1/20 = 1/400 chance = 0.25%), critical hit (2d8 ≈ 9 damage), versus the Ancient Red's 546 HP average
546 / (0.25 x 9) = 242.667 commoners

ok yep, JackPhoenix's number checks out
edit, math'd bad, decimal places converting from % in wrong spot

546 / ((1/400) x 9) = 24266.67 commoners, WAY higher

[JNAProductions]

Those number didn't sound right to me, had to double check

Commoners with a +2 Proficiency Bonus and 10(+0) DEX will still need a natural 20 to hit an Ancient Red's 22 AC.
With a Light Crossbow range of 80/320 up against Frightful Presence range 120 DC 21, they'll either be attack at long range disadvantage, or be within Frightful Presence range.
As the DC is 21, commoners have a 10(+0) WIS, and natural 20's only impact attack rolls and death saving throws, this DC is impossible for commoners to beat. Every commoner inside that range WILL be frightened by the Ancient Red on the first turn, and every commoner outside that range will be at long range. Assuming the Ancient Red is in flight (because why wouldn't it be), the distance closure from long range to short range is going to happen on the Ancient Red's turn, in which case it'll get to use Frightful Presence... ie; all the commoners will be attacking at disadvantage anyway.

so only being able to hit on a natural 20 (1/20 chance), at disadvantage (1/20 x 1/20 = 1/400 chance = 0.25%), critical hit (2d8 ≈ 9 damage), versus the Ancient Red's 546 HP average
546 / (0.25 x 9) = 242.667 commoners

ok yep, JackPhoenix's number checks out

It does not.

546/(9/400) is around 24,000.

[Zhorn]

caught it as soon as I hit post, just didn't correct fast enough before it was seen :smallredface:

[MaxWilson]

Hey I've seen this show before

EDIT: and to be clear, if you do use this as an introduction for this sort of villain, leave an escape option. It's unlikely they'll be able to actually defeat the dragon at this level.

IMO it's also okay if the escape option involves a Revivify or Raise Dead spell (or Wish (Resurrection)). That doesn't mean you're going to stop other escape options from working (Meld Into Stone, Dimension Door + Invisibility, wildshape into a spider and hide, maybe even just plain running away in a different direction than most other people are running). It's just a reminder that in a fantasy world with NPC spellcasters, even TPK doesn't have to mean permadeath--Alita: Battle Angel has the main character basically die halfway through the movie, and she gets the cyborg equivalent of Raise Dead, which works because it was earned in advance. You can earn/foreshadow the potential PC resurrection in advance too by letting them ally with a powerful organization centered on an NPC priest or wizard who can raise them from the dead, which will make it all the sweeter when you-the-DM eventually arrange for assassins to murder said powerful allied priest or wizard, leaving them all on their own for the rest of Tier 3-4. (Anyone ever played Bard's Tale 3? Remember the old man? Remember the sinking feeling in your stomach when Tarjan kills him?)

Like, if I were running Lord of the Rings, I'd totally kill Elrond offscreen, and Gandalf too if he wasn't a PC.

[JackPhoenix]

ok yep, JackPhoenix's number checks out

Misremembered that, the calculation was for audult dragon, not ancient one. Went from a memory instead of checking the numbers.

[Zhorn]

Misremembered that, the calculation was for audult dragon, not ancient one. Went from a memory instead of checking the numbers.

On a Red, it'd still be a lot higher than 300, even downgrading from an Ancient Red to an Adult Red.
(I'll trust JNAProductions to be on the ball and call out my errors)

Commoner's +2 to hit vs 19 AC, that's 17+ on a d20 (4/20) with 1/4 of those successful hits being a crit.
Average damage of a successful hit = ((3/4)x4.5)+((1/4)x9) = 5.625

Now the DC 19 Frightful Presence is passable this time, so assuming best case scenario of ALL commoners shooting from inside the 80 ft. range for the highest representation of attacks without disadvantage gives us 2 successes for every 18 failures.

Of those that fail and roll their attack at disadvantage, their hit rate drops to = 4/20 x 4/20 = 16/400, with a crit rate of 1/400
Average damage of a successful hit = ((15/16)x4.5)+((1/16)x9) = 4.78125

HP divided by sum of (group representation multiplied by hit rate multiplied average damage)
256/(((2/20)x(4/20)x5.625)+((18/20)x(16/400)x4.78125)) = 899.43 commoners

At a guess I'm inclined to think you may have calculated for one of the other dragons with a point or so less AC, a lower Frightful Presence DC, and a smaller HP pool.
The Reds do tend towards being the apex of their chromatic brethren.

But the general principle you offer of commoners with light crossbows is still sound, and I like to use this headcannon as to why dragons rarely attack major cities/settlements, and when they do it tends to be hit'n'run, smash'n'grab, or use the threat of them potential attacking to demand a peacefully offered tribute. Dragon's are prideful, but the long lived ones are not dumb.

[da newt]

Zhorn - how do you account for initiative? The Frightful Presence is an Action so ~ half of the commoners would get a turn before the dragon and attack without disadvantage, right?

[Zhorn]

Partially covered when talking about the Ancient Red in the first breakdown, assumedly they'd be flying, so closing the distance from long range to normal range would be done on the Red's turn.
They can use their Frightful Presence at 120 ft. range, so that could be in effect before they close the distance into the 80 ft. range.
If the Red's staying at the edge of their 90 ft. breath weapon, then ALL attacks would be made at disadvantage anyway.

[MoiMagnus]

World building a campaign where the pace will be set by the characters. If they want to have a long rest between every encounter they can, but there will be consequences.


Don't forget that as a DM, you can change the duration of short rests and long rests, this is very practical if you want to suggest some pacing different from the "dungeon crawling pacing".

In our current campaign, we have things like "you need one week of travel" or "the excavation of the ruins take 3 days before you can enter them", with only few combats per week in average. As such, the DM changed LR to "a small week of downtime and resting in a civilised place" and SR to "taking a night of rest".

This allows for more realistic time scale. You no longer need for the army of darkness to appears from nowhere for it to have a time pressure on the PCs, since now, having the army progressively assemble during one full year is only ~15 long rests for the PCs rather than ~360 of them.

But if you feel you've already found an pacing of the evolution of the universe compatible with the standard SR and LR duration, just keep the standard rules. Standard SR and LR are more balanced with respect to spell durations.

[da newt]

new thread started for hypothetical dragon vs commoners

[Danielqueue1]

There's a difference between when it's feasible and when it's comfortable. In general I'd say if you want players to be comfortable, to feel like they're ready, that is probably in Tier 4, around 17th-18th level. It's totally feasible for them to do it sooner with the right tactics (and intel) but this is presumably the first time they're going to be doing this, so they may not tumble to the right tactics and may not have the intel to recognize the right tactics. (For all they know, an Ancient Red Dragon may be 2000 HP and AC 30 with a 300 HP breath weapon--how would they know otherwise?)

May I add that in addition to giving them XP as they finish quests, you may want to also give them information about the dragon. Stories about it fighting other creatures may be especially valuable, to baseline their expectations. Did it run from six Storm Giants, and then come back later and take them on one at a time out of revenge? That tells them that at least it can't brute force six Storm Giants. Was it seriously wounded taking down a Pit Fiend and a Lich, and ever afterwards has feared and hated the lich who did the job? That tells them something useful, and maybe the PCs can get extra info from the lich, for a price (a favor?). Did it knock down a castle wall with three smashes from its tail? Well, at least they know it's not one smash! Etc.


The idea is to have THE EVENT happen before it would be comfortable for them to face the boss, but after it is feasible. (Unless they play it slow and safe then the event will happen before they are ready.)

Lore about the Boss, its nature, motivations, powers, lair, etc will be scattered throughout the capaign. And... how did you know about the lich?





EDIT: and to be clear, if you do use this as an introduction for this sort of villain, leave an escape option. It's unlikely they'll be able to actually defeat the dragon at this level.

Oh yeah, the "dragon" is showing up in the opening cutscene equivalent. They just wont have much info on it (other than RUN AWAY! ) until level 5.


Don't forget that as a DM, you can change the duration of short rests and long rests, this is very practical if you want to suggest some pacing different from the "dungeon crawling pacing".

In our current campaign, we have things like "you need one week of travel" or "the excavation of the ruins take 3 days before you can enter them", with only few combats per week in average. As such, the DM changed LR to "a small week of downtime and resting in a civilised place" and SR to "taking a night of rest".

This allows for more realistic time scale. You no longer need for the army of darkness to appears from nowhere for it to have a time pressure on the PCs, since now, having the army progressively assemble during one full year is only ~15 long rests for the PCs rather than ~360 of them.

But if you feel you've already found an pacing of the evolution of the universe compatible with the standard SR and LR duration, just keep the standard rules. Standard SR and LR are more balanced with respect to spell durations.

I want to keep the resting set up the same, I would like to make the adjustments on the spacing between events.


The ideal situation I'm trying to build is an active discussion amongst the players about what to do keeping time in mind. "We know about the Dragon Cult holy ground that no doubt has more info, but I was thinking, maybe we handle the hobgoblin warcamp first, it is closer and we almost have enough for another level, maybe if we go straight from one to the other it will save us a trip." Or, "Hey I know we are low on resources, but if we finish this dungeon before the next long rest and move at a fast pace, we'll have enough time to check out that reported undead sighting on our way back Oakhurst and still be back in time for our meeting with the Oracle."