400 commoners vs adult red dragon - thought experiment

[da newt]

So how would a battle between 400 commoners with light cross bows and an adult red dragon actually play out if you went round by round?

Assumptions: white room, not in the dragon's lair, battle begins w/ dragon > 320' from commoners

The Dragon can use it's Breath Attack OR Frightful Presence and melee attacks on it's turn. All legendary actions require the Dragon to be within 10' or 15' of targets.

I'll add the ASSUMPTION that the commoners are in formation evenly spaced over a 200' x 200' square (so there is a space between each - like a checkerboard they are on all the black spaces).

With a max range of 320' for the light Xbow, the commoners will get a round or two of attacks in before the Dragon can make it's first attack. Does the dragon then close to within breath range, or use it's first turn in range to Frighten but not attack? Then how does it proceed on subsequent rounds? Does it stay at range and wait for it's breath weapon to recharge or drop into melee?

With a 2 in 6 chance for the breath to recharge, and only being able to take out ~ 6 commoners per round with melee attacks, even though almost all Xbow attacks will be at disadvantage due to range or frightened, I don't think this war of attrition will end well for the dragon ...

Thoughts?

[SiCK_Boy]

The combat rules are not designed to properly reflect battles involving that many participants.

It also totally ignores the good sense of the commoners; odds are they will win as a group, but many of them will die in the process, so they’d better have a solid reason to take part in this fight.

The dragon should turn back and retreat and return once the army is smaller and it finds more advantageous terrain from which to fight.

[Aett_Thorn]

So this probably won't be perfect at all, but here goes.

Each commoner gets one attack per round, and has a 10% chance of hitting the red dragon with a 19 AC. However, half of those will be critical hits.

Let's just say that the red dragon on turn one does a fly-by breath weapon (which is likely it's best move), but the commoners are all ready for it and ready an attack for when the dragon is in range.

40 of the commoners will hit, 20 of these being criticals.

So 20 * 1d8 = 20 * 4.5 = 90

20 *2d8 = 20 * 9 = 180

For 270 damage in the first round. That's more damage than the red dragon has HP in just one white-room round.


Now, sure, the dragon could approach from the side and restrict the number of commoners that could take a shot to about half, but I still don't see this ending up good for the dragon.

[Sigreid]

Dragon, not being an idiot, starts by dropping rocks and other heavy things on them from outside their effective range with the crossbows until enough peasants are killed or demoralized to swoop in for a snack. There's a reason air superiority is considered a deciding factor in major battles.

[Naanomi]

Dragon flies to corner of square, takes out as many as it can with breath weapon; then retreats. If it took too much damage (from held actions of the peasants), retreat and full rest; returning to take out some more later. Otherwise, retreat long enough to regain breath weapon then repeat.

[Anonymouswizard]

Dragon ignores the commoners in a field, raids abandoned village for sheep and good instead. When thr commoners get bored of waiting for the dragon to show up and begin to return to the village the dragon flies away with sheep and earrings as soon as it notices them.

If you're going to force a battle the Dragon's breast bet is to not use it's breath season unless it can hot everybody with it instead it grabs the biggest thing it can, flies as high as it can, and lets go. Repeat until a rock/cow/knight/wagon lands on the commoners. The commoners are ideally not staying still, they are moving in a semi-random pattern to avoid falling objects and trying to spread out as much as possible.

Eventually the dragon gets bored, flies to a less weird village for a few cows, and returns home. It takes a nap and wakes up after a hundred years to find that it has been declared the winner.

[fbelanger]

The commoners seem pretty dangerous,
Should we rename the game
Dungeon and horde of commoners?

[Xervous]

The commoners seem pretty dangerous,
Should we rename the game
Dungeon and horde of commoners?

We still need to acknowledge the party is a bunch of monkeys on typewriters when it comes to skills though.

Bananas and Battalions!

[da newt]

The idea is how many commoners does it take to defend a city/town from a Dragon, or simply defeat the Dragon?

With a 19 ac vs the commoners +2 to hit, at ranges of 85-320' or frightened that's a 4% chance to hit for 4.8 dam each, and 20% chance to hit 5-80' not frightened for 5.6 dam each.

The Dragon's Frightful Presence has a range of 120' but a 10% chance per round for the commoner to save.

The Dragon's Breath weapon has a range of 60' but only recharges on a 5 or 6 on a d6.

The dragon has to get into range to attack, then stay there to keep attacking.

Yes staying more than 320' up and dropping stuff could work, but how many big heavy things can it carry / drop, and how many people could you hit, per trip ...

If the commoners were Long Bow proficient it get's even worse for the dragon. The tyranny of numbers makes one BBEG vs a crowd unrealistic quickly.

[Unoriginal]

With a 2 in 6 chance for the breath to recharge, and only being able to take out ~ 6 commoners per round with melee attacks, even though almost all Xbow attacks will be at disadvantage due to range or frightened, I don't think this war of attrition will end well for the dragon ...

Thoughts?

It's long been known that in such white room scenario, the dragon (or similar big single monster) gets destroyed. Hence the old hectoPeasant meme:

https://1d4chan.org/images/2/2f/HectoPeasant2.jpg

Fact is, such a scenario wouldn't happen outside of the white room .

Most people want to live, and Commoners are Commoners, while a dragon is scary beyond its Frightful Presence. It's unlikely to get that many ordinary people to agree to take the fight to the dragon, without even getting into logisticsand strategic concerns.


On the other hand it demonstrates why dragons on their own don't usually attack cities with a good amount of armed defenders unless they have an ace or a whole deck up their sleeves.


The tyranny of numbers makes one BBEG vs a crowd unrealistic quickly.

A fight of 1 being vs more than 100 archers ending quickly is rather extremely realistic

[Zhorn]

So this probably won't be perfect at all, but here goes.
Within normal range, it's not a bad attempt. Problem being this is ignoring the disadvantage of long range which is what's needed for the commoners to get that opening round.

The thread is a spin off from
https://forums.giantitp.com/showthread.php?622718-What-level-to-face-an-ancient-red-dragon
where I cover the rough math for Ancient and Adult Red Dragons, feel free to pilfer from that as you will.

As far as the scenario, the dragon would be foolish to willingly engage this many ranged opponents at once if they are ready and waiting, dragons are just not that dumb (well, maybe White Dragons are). It would retreat to a safe range, and if still inclined to engage in combat, would strike from above in a surprise ambush if it could, breath weapon on the largest cluster, then flee.
Rinse and repeat, till either the forces are dwindled enough to not pose a risk, or flee to rest up and strike again at full health. Wounds heal, but dead is dead. These things live for so long by playing smart, and fighting on the ground away from its lair is a dumb move. A fair fight isn't worth the risk.
Take out a large chunk of commoners, heal up, take out some more. The commoners in this scenario are finite, but there's no reason for the dragon to behave as though time is finite also.

[Naanomi]

Strategies involving dropping stuff or raiding their village fail, since the Demi-Plane of Whiteroom has nothing to drop and there is no village to go to; the only things that exist there are peasants, dragons, and crossbow bolts

[LudicSavant]

The tyranny of numbers makes one BBEG vs a crowd unrealistic quickly.

Depends on the BBEG we're talking about. Make it an Ancient Red Shadow Dragon with the spellcasting variant and suddenly you're wrecking armies left and right.

Most of the city being slaughtered won't even be able to see the dragon they're fighting as it razes crowds of them at a time, raising each foe that falls as a dread minion. And the few that can see it have a 1 in 400 chance of dinging it for inconsequential damage that won't even chip its temporary hit points.

Between being difficult to target in the first place, taking a DPR of virtually nothing from crowds of low attack bonus creatures, having big AoEs, spells, and raising the victims of its AoEs as an army of Shadows... well, they're gonna be just fine.

[Zhorn]

And Naanomi hits the nail on the head there.
Establishing a white room scenario specifically designed to kill a creature doesn't make for a good example of how to defeat said creature, as it eliminates the alternative responses from each side that lead to any other outcome besides the one the scenario was set up to lead to.

It's a white room;
no range exists beyond the range establish
no terrain exists
no giving up and fleeing to avoid needless death

[SiCK_Boy]

Strategies involving dropping stuff or raiding their village fail, since the Demi-Plane of Whiteroom has nothing to drop and there is no village to go to; the only things that exist there are peasants, dragons, and crossbow bolts

Then the dragon should wait them out. With his better constitution, he'll probably survive long enough for all commoners to die of hunger/thirst (or get enough exhaustion levels that they won't be a menace anymore) before he dies. But in the long run, that poor dragon will also die of hunger/thirst soon enough. Too bad he's got no lair, so all those people are fighting it out for no loot anyway...

[Thunderous Mojo]

A Commoner needs a natural 19 die roll on a d20 to hit the Red Dragon.
Based off the mob rules 1 out 10 attacks is a hit.

If every single commoner of this 400 person army had an unobstructed light crossbow shot at the dragon, only 40 shots would hit.
Please note this is the ideal situation.

Most likely, the Dragon would attack the army at night, so the commoners have Disadvantage on the attacks. By the mob rules, this reduces the number of attacks that hit to 20.

Please, keep in mind, that is 20 hits...70 points of damage, only if all 400 of the levied troops gets to attack.

Realistically, the entire army is not going to simultaneously have a clear shot.

The Dragon, at some point in the night, is going to roar and make loud flapping sounds, while out of the effective range of the commoner army.

This psychological scare tactic, alone, would likely cause some of the commoners to break ranks...especially if it happens at night.

Then the Red Dragon, swoops in, uses Frightful Presence on all creatures within 120', which is going to be most of the 400 levied commoners.
I would use the mob rules again, and just assume as a DC 19 saving throw,
the Frightful Presence will succeed in scaring all but 40 of the commoner army.

Narratively, I would say two units retained their cohesion, and maintained their military effectiveness. The Red Dragon is now going to breath fire on these brave commoners. No one will survive.

The Dragon then spends the rest of the night, using their Breath Weapon to set strategic fires, block off the escape of units, and watch them burn.

At 1st light, the dragon has a heavy breakfast and flies off.

[Xervous]

The idea is how many commoners does it take to defend a city/town from a Dragon?


Now here is a more interesting question to approach. White room of commoners lined up on a checkers grid tells us the density of commoners needed to dissuade the dragon but it doesn’t say much about the likely terrain and objectives.

Commoners: need to present such a threat that the dragon is likely to die or retire from the field and not renew attempts.

At the extremes we have trivial cases of towns too small to contest the dragon, and towns so large the dragon’s temporary impact might be the second page news worthy of typical gang violence.

Having established the minimum number of commoners needed we must look at the expanse of the town and note that a sprawling expanse will have far too few commoners per... lets go with 700’ diameter sphere (One move and their range) and a hex grid. Now if they’re to be on constant alert I’d call for a minimum of two shifts, so we’ll have to double the population density.

Assuming your town meets this density you’re still losing the outlying farms and villas to the dragon, ceding trade roads and port inlets, and settling in for a long siege of terror. If the dragon wanted the town and its contents you’ve potentially won at this point. The dragon goes off to assault softer targets. If the dragon just wanted free rein of the land you’re mostly screwed. Anything not toting along enough commoners will be easy pickings. Care to send 200+ commoners out to guard every shepherds flock? It’s simply not sustainable with the typical agricultural efficiency of a D&D world.

If the dragon has a lair you’ve got a chance at trapping it or driving it off. But really if the dragon wants to stay around the land, you’ll need adventurers or a few mutterings of Pazuzu (Or your choice of dark bargain) to oust the scaly git.

[patchyman]

The idea is how many commoners does it take to defend a city/town from a Dragon, or simply defeat the Dragon?
.

In a city/town, 200 commoners donÂ’t all get a shot against the dragon: geographyÂ’s a b*****.

In an open field you could array an army of 200 people to fight a dragon, but the dragon would probably do the wise thing and not attack an army, by itself, on terrain that favours its opponent.

Which raises another question: how big does a settlement have to be to field an army of 200 people? Where does it get 200 crossbows?

My best guess is that you are not going to see an army that big and that well equipped outside a moderate-sized walled town. And a dragon SHOULD think twice before attacking a moderately-sized walled town.

But letÂ’s get back to my first point. WeÂ’ve got a moderately-sized walled town. We have 200 people. If they are all adjacent to each other, that means the wall is 1000Â’ long. This tracks, as the walls of Canterbury (as an example), are 800Â’. But that is around the whole city. At any given moment, IÂ’d say about 1/5th of the wall has a line of effect to the dragon. So, the dragon is only taking 40 attacks the first round, assuming the completely unrealistic situation of commoners packed adjacent to each other on the wall.

I like the dragonÂ’s odds.

[Unoriginal]

Strategies involving dropping stuff or raiding their village fail, since the Demi-Plane of Whiteroom has nothing to drop and there is no village to go to; the only things that exist there are peasants, dragons, and crossbow bolts

"You could kill me", the dragon said, in an honeyed tone that clashed with such words and such creature. "Yes, you could in fact kill me. There is no shame in admitting you did not win against a stacked deck. Should I get close enough, I will die."

The dragon paused, scanning the hundreds of uneasy faces that composed their audience, their insignificance highlighted by the featureless white void they were standing in. It was amusing, in its tragedy.

"Yes, you could kill me. Or I could fly away, and you would never catch me. But why would I? But why would you? Killing me will not free you. Your existence, no, our existence, in this space, is supported solely by this stalemate state. Kill me, and you'll disappear, forgotten datas in a soulless calculation. Kill yourselves, and the same will happen. As for me..." The dragon arched their back, scratched their red scales, and settled in as comfortable a position the hypothetical ground allowed. "I'll be taking a nap. Do as you wish, Princes of nothing. We are dead either way."

The deafening silence of the desperate humanoids would not last long. Soon, one of them will break it one way or another, and the rest will follow the example.

Death was an unfortunate outcome, but if one is made to lose, then it was one's duty to choose the most entertaining possibility.


The dragon smiled.

[MaxWilson]

"You could kill me", the dragon said, in an honeyed tone that clashed with such words and such creature. "Yes, you could in fact kill me. There is no shame in admitting you did not win against a stacked deck. Should I get close enough, I will die."

The dragon paused, scanning the hundreds of uneasy faces that composed their audience, their insignificance highlighted by the featureless white void they were standing in. It was amusing, in its tragedy.

"Yes, you could kill me. Or I could fly away, and you would never catch me. But why would I? But why would you? Killing me will not free you. Your existence, no, our existence, in this space, is supported solely by this stalemate state. Kill me, and you'll disappear, forgotten datas in a soulless calculation. Kill yourselves, and the same will happen. As for me..." The dragon arched their back, scratched their red scales, and settled in as comfortable a position the hypothetical ground allowed. "I'll be taking a nap. Do as you wish, Princes of nothing. We are dead either way."

The deafening silence of the desperate humanoids would not last long. Soon, one of them will break it one way or another, and the rest will follow the example.

Death was an unfortunate outcome, but if one is made to lose, then it was one's duty to choose the most entertaining possibility.

The dragon smiled.

Nice intimidation! Odium would approve.

[Unoriginal]

Nice intimidation! Odium would approve.

Thank you.

[Xervous]

Well if the dragon really doesn’t like the commoners just sleep a while. It’s like waiting for a pet goldfish to die before putting your turntable where the bowl used to be.

[Vorpalchicken]

I might as the dragon try immediately belly flopping onto about five of them right in the middle (prone means instant plummet of about 70 damage (35 split between the dragon and the five peasants underneath- unless they pass their dex save.)

Immediately get up from prone, multi-attack, frightening 90 per cent of them. And killing a couple more. Reposition with 40 feet of fly speed to be flying right over about 25 or so close enough to be wing attacked.

One filth farmer misses. Tail attack. One peasant misses. Wing attack (25 auto dead- can't pass save) and rise 40 feet

A bunch of mostly frightened riffraff shoot and do little damage. They don't have crossbow proficiency so most of them are 2/20 times 2/20 equals one per cent chance to hit.

From there just do hit and run with breath weapon (about 60 at base of cone die in checkerboard formation each time) Always remain at greater than 80 feet height.

If the serf and turf start becoming mostly un-frightened or start readying actions the dragon may have to retreat and attack a diminished force later.

[gregc]

You can actually try it on dndcombat.com

though not 400 yet :-)

[Naanomi]

Most likely, the Dragon would attack the army at night, so the commoners have Disadvantage on the attacks. By the mob rules, this reduces the number of attacks that hit to 20.
Sorry, there is no day and no night in the Demiplane of Whiteroom; just an endless source less ‘bright light’ that pervades everything endlessly

[Dork_Forge]

This sounds like something that would math out on paper and be completely ludicrous in any way shape or form outside of a calculation. An army of commoners, with weapons that they are not proficient with and probably couldn't afford, waiting to shoot down an Adult Dragon that is both smarter and wiser than them?

[SiCK_Boy]

This sounds like something that would math out on paper and be completely ludicrous in any way shape or form outside of a calculation. An army of commoners, with weapons that they are not proficient with and probably couldn't afford, waiting to shoot down an Adult Dragon that is both smarter and wiser than them?

Quite the opposite. The dragon, if he is so smart and wise, will retreat in such a scenario (on this specific demiplane of whiteness). That is the whole point of the exercize: to illustrate how an army of commoners with ranged weapons is more deadly than a single high power monster.

However, moving out of that demiplane, then yes, the dragon's intellect and cunning would probably allow it to mounts some kind of attack against this army and win in the end, but it would be dependant on a lot of factors we do not control and cannot assume in the scenario as presented.

[Dork_Forge]

Quite the opposite. The dragon, if he is so smart and wise, will retreat in such a scenario (on this specific demiplane of whiteness). That is the whole point of the exercize: to illustrate how an army of commoners with ranged weapons is more deadly than a single high power monster.

However, moving out of that demiplane, then yes, the dragon's intellect and cunning would probably allow it to mounts some kind of attack against this army and win in the end, but it would be dependant on a lot of factors we do not control and cannot assume in the scenario as presented.

What you said seemed contrary, but supports my point? The moment you take it out of a white room math calculation it falls apart, there's no reason an old and intellegent being like a Dragon would ever bother with that, just burn their fields and homes and let them die of starvation and exposure or burn the village in the night as they sleep.

We can't assume any factors that would support the viability of any of this, all a white room allows us to do is say that by virtue of rolling enough dice, on average the commoners will win in a head to head. In an actual game (or fictional reality) the dragon would never allow itself to act like a giant pin cushion until it dies and these commoners would neither have the arms nor the stones to make that stand.

*There's also the point of luck, the Dragon can get lucky and survive the odds, the commoners will always die to the breath weapon and wing attacks, no relying on a d20 necessary and both aoes.

[PhoenixPhyre]

What you said seemed contrary, but supports my point? The moment you take it out of a white room math calculation it falls apart, there's no reason an old and intellegent being like a Dragon would ever bother with that, just burn their fields and homes and let them die of starvation and exposure or burn the village in the night as they sleep.

We can't assume any factors that would support the viability of any of this, all a white room allows us to do is say that by virtue of rolling enough dice, on average the commoners will win in a head to head. In an actual game (or fictional reality) the dragon would never allow itself to act like a giant pin cushion until it dies and these commoners would neither have the arms nor the stones to make that stand.

*There's also the point of luck, the Dragon can get lucky and survive the odds, the commoners will always die to the breath weapon and wing attacks, no relying on a d20 necessary and both aoes.

Exactly. These sorts of white-room "thought experiments" don't tell anything--it's proof by definition. Define the situation so that the dragon dies, and of course he dies! To me, all this sort of white-room theorycrafting both misses the point (ie doesn't tell us anything important except in extreme cases that didn't really pass a sniff test anyway) and promotes harmful reactions. It tells DMs who don't have the experience to know that they're meaningless that there's a problem that needs fixing. When the only problem is that the theorycrafting rested on silly assumptions that dictated the results.

[SiCK_Boy]

What you said seemed contrary, but supports my point? The moment you take it out of a white room math calculation it falls apart, there's no reason an old and intellegent being like a Dragon would ever bother with that, just burn their fields and homes and let them die of starvation and exposure or burn the village in the night as they sleep.

We can't assume any factors that would support the viability of any of this, all a white room allows us to do is say that by virtue of rolling enough dice, on average the commoners will win in a head to head. In an actual game (or fictional reality) the dragon would never allow itself to act like a giant pin cushion until it dies and these commoners would neither have the arms nor the stones to make that stand.

*There's also the point of luck, the Dragon can get lucky and survive the odds, the commoners will always die to the breath weapon and wing attacks, no relying on a d20 necessary and both aoes.

Sorry, but I had misread your previous post. I thought you were saying that the dragon’s intellect should somehow let it survive in the white room by virtue of ignoring the calculation (I assumed calculation meant only the dice rolling averages, when instead you meant the whole white room is a calculation).

[MaxWilson]

We can't assume any factors that would support the viability of any of this, all a white room allows us to do is say that by virtue of rolling enough dice, on average the commoners will win in a head to head. In an actual game (or fictional reality) the dragon would never allow itself to act like a giant pin cushion until it dies and these commoners would neither have the arms nor the stones to make that stand.

In general the point of these sorts of analyses is to set boundary conditions. If Dracula cannot beat ten men with pitchforks, but he can beat two even if they are brave, that tells you something about the sorts of adventures that Dracula can feature in. If 300 soldiers vs. 1 Adult Red Dragon is a stalemate because the dragon cannot kill the soldiers and the soldiers cannot catch the dragon, then that tells you that a battalion of soldiers can hold a strong point against the dragon although not indefinitely, and that the dragon has something to fear which tells you something about what human adventurers might be asked to do to relieve the pressure AND ALSO about what the dragon's allies might be attempting to do (e.g. send out orc raiders at night to tempt the humans to divide their forces).

If you know that you cannot go left or back, then you know that you must go forward or right. It's valuable to know what kinds of fights you cannot win.

[Lunali]

All legendary actions require the Dragon to be within 10' or 15' of targets.

Not strictly true, the dragon can use 2 legendary actions to move half it's speed using wing attack.

As for tactics, dropping rocks from 400' up should be fairly effective. If you don't like that tactic, the dragon can go up 510' above the ground and stop flying, closing the distance without taking any attacks.

[Amdy_vill]

So how would a battle between 400 commoners with light cross bows and an adult red dragon actually play out if you went round by round?

Assumptions: white room, not in the dragon's lair, battle begins w/ dragon > 320' from commoners

The Dragon can use it's Breath Attack OR Frightful Presence and melee attacks on it's turn. All legendary actions require the Dragon to be within 10' or 15' of targets.

I'll add the ASSUMPTION that the commoners are in formation evenly spaced over a 200' x 200' square (so there is a space between each - like a checkerboard they are on all the black spaces).

With a max range of 320' for the light Xbow, the commoners will get a round or two of attacks in before the Dragon can make it's first attack. Does the dragon then close to within breath range, or use it's first turn in range to Frighten but not attack? Then how does it proceed on subsequent rounds? Does it stay at range and wait for it's breath weapon to recharge or drop into melee?

With a 2 in 6 chance for the breath to recharge, and only being able to take out ~ 6 commoners per round with melee attacks, even though almost all Xbow attacks will be at disadvantage due to range or frightened, I don't think this war of attrition will end well for the dragon ...

Thoughts?

ok let get into this. Mob combat rules in the dmg make this easier. with a dex of 0 and a proficiency of 2, the adult dragons effective ac becomes 17 meaning 5 commoners must attack to make 1 hit on average. so 80 hits each turn for the commoners, using monster average rules for damage(Half +1) we get 5 damage per attack or 400 damage a turn. commoners win in 2 rounds. if it was ancient here is how it would go.


with a dex of 0 and a proficiency of 2, the adult dragons effective ac becomes 20 meaning 20 commoners must attack to make 1 hit on average. so 20 hits each turn for the commoners, using monster average rules for damage(Half +1) we get 5 damage per attack or 100 damage a turn.Let's say commoners go first for fun. commoners deal 100 damage to the dragon leaving it at 446. the dragon opens with a breath weapon and if have done my math right instakill 100 commoners. I think. The next turn rolls up and 75 damage to the dragon. dragons hp is 371. at the end of commoners turn dragon legendary actions to wing attack killing 25 more commoners. 275 left. dragons going to be smart and dash to 200 feet away(wing attack+ dash). commoners make attacks only 7 will hit, for 35 damage. dragon hp is 336. the dragon then repeats this until all commoners are dead. It's not really a far fight. even with the overwhelming numbers, the dragons save dc are just too high.

[Thunderous Mojo]

It's valuable to know what kinds of fights you cannot win.

When the parameters of a fight are as unrealistic as this one...a Demiplane of Nothingness, that is brightly lit, and full of levied troops and Smaug, then any conclusion reached is of dubious probative value.

I think it would be a shame if someone concludes based off this thread that hiring 400 commoners is going to be the panacea to killing a 5e Adult Red Dragon.

The real moral is: always eliminate a dragons mobility.

(The secondary lesson is that, in D&D, some issues, such as Dragons,
are best handled by Adventuring Groups, and not by armies.)


As a pure guess, I think that in order for a multitude of creatures to overwhelm an Adult Red Dragon, you need massed troops with +4 to +6 to hit, for the mob rules to really take a toll.

Frightful Presence is fantastically disruptive against a multitude of creatures with low Wisdom saving throws.

[Dork_Forge]

In general the point of these sorts of analyses is to set boundary conditions. If Dracula cannot beat ten men with pitchforks, but he can beat two even if they are brave, that tells you something about the sorts of adventures that Dracula can feature in. If 300 soldiers vs. 1 Adult Red Dragon is a stalemate because the dragon cannot kill the soldiers and the soldiers cannot catch the dragon, then that tells you that a battalion of soldiers can hold a strong point against the dragon although not indefinitely, and that the dragon has something to fear which tells you something about what human adventurers might be asked to do to relieve the pressure AND ALSO about what the dragon's allies might be attempting to do (e.g. send out orc raiders at night to tempt the humans to divide their forces).

If you know that you cannot go left or back, then you know that you must go forward or right. It's valuable to know what kinds of fights you cannot win.

I mean, in this kind of ridiculous head to head, how many creatures (excluding those that are immune to nonmagical BPS) could actually win in the face of such an immense amount of D20s in a calculation?

It seems like it establishes overwhelming numbers as the be all, end all and I'm not sure how helpful that could ever be.

[MaxWilson]

I mean, in this kind of ridiculous head to head, how many creatures (excluding those that are immune to nonmagical BPS) could actually win in the face of such an immense amount of D20s in a calculation?

It seems like it establishes overwhelming numbers as the be all, end all and I'm not sure how helpful that could ever be.

Well, for one thing, an Ancient Red Dragon wins easily, thus highlighting the difference between Adult and Ancient dragons. An Adult Red can go head-to-head with a reinforced company of trained crossbowmen; an Ancient Dragon can go head-to-head with a large battalion or small division. To a world-builder like me, that's an interesting data point, and it affects things like how much prestige a dragon would get and how armies using them will be organized: if an Ancient Red is basically the fantasy military equivalent of an aircraft carrier (even before taking into account any spellcasting), and an Adult Red is sort of the equivalent of a tank company or a stealth bomber, then I might set up a hobgoblin nation to have a ground pounder corps with 50,000 troops (spread over an area the size of France) and an air corps consisting of two divisions:

(1) Anvil: Ancient Falgoth and his support staff (a few healers and wizards, roughly level 5-9, with force-multiplier spells like Aura of Vitality, Freedom of Movement, Longstrider, Death Ward, Shield of Faith, Greater Invisibility and Haste),

(2) Hammer: 3 Adult Reds (Fanzerin, Khartezhir, and Senegoth), 10 Young Adults, and roughly 100 special forces personnel (Devastators, Iron Shadows, etc.).

Since I've run the numbers I know that this force structure is roughly balanced: Falgoth is in some ways a match for the entire second division put together, at least when it comes to smashing armies of crossbowmen. And the hobgoblin nation would dedicate immense resources to his comfort and upkeep, just like they would to a carrier battle group.

Of course I also generally make all dragons over Wyrmling age Dragon Sorcerers (Falgoth would likely be a level 17-19), so the dragons would actually be tougher than this, especially on a strategic level (Invisibility, Disguise Self, Teleport).

And that is where adventure potential comes in. PCs might not be able to beat 10,000 hobgoblins in a straight-up fight, but if they can punch out Hammer and Anvil they could turn the tide of a war.

[Dork_Forge]

Well, for one thing, an Ancient Red Dragon wins easily, thus highlighting the difference between Adult and Ancient dragons. An Adult Red can go head-to-head with a reinforced company of trained crossbowmen; an Ancient Dragon can go head-to-head with a large battalion or small division. To a world-builder like me, that's an interesting data point, and it affects things like how much prestige a dragon would get and how armies using them will be organized: if an Ancient Red is basically the fantasy military equivalent of an aircraft carrier (even before taking into account any spellcasting), and an Adult Red is sort of the equivalent of a tank company or a stealth bomber, then I might set up a hobgoblin nation to have a ground pounder corps with 50,000 troops (spread over an area the size of France) and an air corps consisting of two divisions:

(1) Anvil: Ancient Falgoth and his support staff (a few healers and wizards, roughly level 5-9, with force-multiplier spells like Aura of Vitality, Freedom of Movement, Longstrider, Death Ward, Shield of Faith, Greater Invisibility and Haste),

(2) Hammer: 3 Adult Reds (Fanzerin, Khartezhir, and Senegoth), 10 Young Adults, and roughly 100 special forces personnel (Devastators, Iron Shadows, etc.).

Since I've run the numbers I know that this force structure is roughly balanced: Falgoth is in some ways a match for the entire second division put together, at least when it comes to smashing armies of crossbowmen. And the hobgoblin nation would dedicate immense resources to his comfort and upkeep, just like they would to a carrier battle group.

Of course I also generally make all dragons over Wyrmling age Dragon Sorcerers (Falgoth would likely be a level 17-19), so the dragons would actually be tougher than this, especially on a strategic level (Invisibility, Disguise Self, Teleport).

And that is where adventure potential comes in. PCs might not be able to beat 10,000 hobgoblins in a straight-up fight, but if they can punch out Hammer and Anvil they could turn the tide of a war.

Wait where is the reinforced company of trained crossbow men coming from? If in the whiteroom an Adult Red loses handily to a bunch of commoners, then shouldn't soldiers with proficiency and presumably a positive Dex (if not Heavy Crossbows) absolutley destroy the Red?

From a worldbuilding point of view using dragons in that fashion is certainly interesting, personally that's a little out there for me (Dragon's allowing themselves to be used in such roles, armies that have that kind of power not ripping the world apart in conflicts between each other etc.) but I can see the appeal.

[MaxWilson]

Wait where is the reinforced company of trained crossbow men coming from? If in the whiteroom an Adult Red loses handily to a bunch of commoners, then shouldn't soldiers with proficiency and presumably a positive Dex (if not Heavy Crossbows) absolutley destroy the Red?

Nah, reinforced companies are smaller than 300 men, and power scales as the square of troop numbers, so what you gain from quality you lose from quantity. If there's 120 soldiers with stats similar to Guards but with light crossbows, they'll do about 45 HP per turn to the dragon when at disadvantage, giving the dragon good odds of killing many and shattering the company's morale before they can finish recovering from Frightful presence. It's a tough fight but I'd actually favor the dragon here, even before you take cover and stealth into consideration--but in context of this conversation, the point is that the Adult Red is much, muuuuch weaker than the Ancient Red in terms of how many troops it can go head-to-head with.


From a worldbuilding point of view using dragons in that fashion is certainly interesting, personally that's a little out there for me (Dragon's allowing themselves to be used in such roles, armies that have that kind of power not ripping the world apart in conflicts between each other etc.) but I can see the appeal.

Yeah, it's a matter of perspective. The way I see it, if the Romans could go to war with 86,000 troops at a time, hobgoblins should be able to do it too. I realize though that a lot of DMs like to keep things on a much smaller scale.

[Aaedimus]

So if the army is arranged in a checker board shape with one box between each person that's a 40×40 grid. (400^1/2 is 20, ×2 for spreading them out)

The breath weapon is a 60ft cone.

Even if you don't use that, Wing attack kills everyone in a 7×7 grid.

The first turn most of the army will be aniahlated

I could go into math, but without doing any, I very much don't think it's as 1 sided in the army's benefit as everyone seems to be agreeing.

Dodge action till you reach the corner of the grid: kill everyone in 1 turn...

As long as the army remains at disadvantage until he gets to the corner the dragon has a chance.

They're not spread out enough to really make it matter.

In fact everyone is saying terrain would help the dragon... I think it's more likely to help the army.

[da newt]

Yes a 40x40 grid which is 200' x 200'.

The wing attack has a range of 10', the breath weapon has a range of 60', Frightful Presence has a range of 120', the light cross bow has a range of 80/320', and every round 10% of the commoners make their save against frightened.

If the Dragon is on the ground, the breath weapon can hit ~ 42 commoners (60' wide cone at 60' range = 53 degree angle), or if they are 60' up and breath straight down, that's a 30' radius circle and hit ~ 60 commoners. If the dragon is 10' up, they could hit ~ 25 commoners.

So let's ASSUME a best case scenario for the dragon: the dragon has the extra speed to take the action to Frightful Presence every 3rd turn (and 3 melee attacks), and breath weapon the other 2 from 60', and wing attack from 10' every turn, and tail attack every turn, and always maneuver to maximize the number of commoners it can hit, that's an average of 61 per round, so it would take it 7 rounds to kill 400 commoners.

Let's also assume worst case for the commoners: Every attack is at DISADV, so 4% chance to hit for 4.8 damage. The Commoners get to attack once before the Dragon is in range to attack, so 77 damage round 1, then 60 less attacks every round, gets me to 160 commoners left on round 5 and 269 total damage = dead dragon.

Thoughts?

[Tvtyrant]

Yes a 40x40 grid which is 200' x 200'.

The wing attack has a range of 10', the breath weapon has a range of 60', Frightful Presence has a range of 120', the light cross bow has a range of 80/320', and every round 10% of the commoners make their save against frightened.

If the Dragon is on the ground, the breath weapon can hit ~ 42 commoners (60' wide cone at 60' range = 53 degree angle), or if they are 60' up and breath straight down, that's a 30' radius circle and hit ~ 60 commoners. If the dragon is 10' up, they could hit ~ 25 commoners.

So let's ASSUME a best case scenario for the dragon: the dragon has the extra speed to take the action to Frightful Presence every 3rd turn (and 3 melee attacks), and breath weapon the other 2 from 60', and wing attack from 10' every turn, and tail attack every turn, and always maneuver to maximize the number of commoners it can hit, that's an average of 61 per round, so it would take it 7 rounds to kill 400 commoners.

Let's also assume worst case for the commoners: Every attack is at DISADV, so 4% chance to hit for 4.8 damage. The Commoners get to attack once before the Dragon is in range to attack, so 77 damage round 1, then 60 less attacks every round, gets me to 160 commoners left on round 5 and 269 total damage = dead dragon.

Thoughts?
The dragon will always go first; it can climb out of range directly above them and then fall 500 ft into breath range. So the commoners are losing 60 people before they go.

[Unoriginal]

I have to point out that regular Commoners are not proficient in crossbows or any ranged weapon.

It's not unreasonable that some among all the Commoners living in the world would be (and Commoners with various added proficiencies do show up in the books), but such a mashup doesn't tell us anything about the expectations of the setting (it does tell us "PCs can't just arm every able-bodied people in town with ranged weapons and get great results", though).

Reminds me of an old thought exercise I did, of how 3 regular goblins would do if they attacked a village on their own. The goblins' performance was as impressive as it was gruesome.

[MaxWilson]

I have to point out that regular Commoners are not proficient in crossbows or any ranged weapon.

It's not unreasonable that some among all the Commoners living in the world would be (and Commoners with various added proficiencies do show up in the books), but such a mashup doesn't tell us anything about the expectations of the setting (it does tell us "PCs can't just arm every able-bodied people in town with ranged weapons and get great results", though).

Thinking out loud...

If the PCs are able to create heavy obscurement to cancel out the fear disadvantage, "arm every able-bodied person in town" might work pretty well. Depending on how the DM rules heavy obscurement (opaque or not?) you'd either want it directly on the dragon or on the archers. Concentration-free spells like Pyrotechnics are probably your best bet here.

And of course potentially adding long-range firepower from a Sharpshooter Fighter or Spell Sniper Warlock helps, even if they're only 6th level or so.

On the other hand, how do you keep the townspeople from breaking once they take a few casualties, let alone hundreds of deaths? If you're involving townsmen I think you need a way to keep their casualties near zero somehow, perhaps by using the PCs as a stalking horse.

[Xervous]

If we’re simplifying this down to numbers thrown at numbers why don’t we just set up a simulation and agree on a % threshold of how many trials result in the dragon dying and just call it by “400 hectopeasants at the 10th percentile” or whatever.

Okay some actual sims.

Assuming 4% chance to hit, 1d8 from commoners. 61 commoners die per round, dragon acts second.

100k batch runs yields 5604 commoner victories. 5.6% chance (hey just roll a d20!)

Having just one commoner absent spits out 5366 wins. 5 absent a startling 4113. 10 (390 commoners) a 3056. The choice of 400 commoners seems to be just on the cusp of feasibility. 377 commoners is about the 1% mark. 427 roughly the 20% mark. Though if you want even betting odds you’ll need about 455 commoners (or 515 if the dragon does the falling entry).

Of course these assumptions favor the dragon. Proper fear calculations shouldn’t be too hard but I’ve got other things to do.

[Danielqueue1]

I always used White room experiments as a thought experiment to determine when a powerful creature would actually start to care about tactics, strategy and retreat. An ancient red dragon could fly 500 feet over a goblin and keep dropping rocks until it hit with no chance of injury, but odds are it would just charge the thing and take the chances of it getting a lucky hit before eating the goblin.

When the fights start getting closer, thats when things get curious. How about an adult dragon vs a squad of hobgoblins? What about a crack team of bugbear commandos?

X creatures will beat adult red dragon in a white room fight. So dragon in real setting will start to bother with actual tactics at 1/4 of X. Resort to defensive/skirmish tactics at 1/2 of X and refuse to engage at 3/4 of X.

(Adjust numbers up and down depending on the creature's Ego and motivations)

So for all the people saying white room is foolish how about this scenario. Group of adventurers spend a fair amount of money arming a plateau village worth of commoners with crossbows and teach them to use them well enough to not shoot themselves in the foot but not enough to be proficient. When the dragon is out raiding a different village the adventurers sneak in and break all the dragon's eggs. Leaving plenty of evidence that it was the villagers that did it.
There is not enough time to teach the villagers advanced tactics so just space them out far enough so they don't get in each other's way.
Dragon will be enraged so probably will engage directly rather than skirmish and the plateau doesn't have much in the way of boulders for dropping.

What is the least amount the adventurers have to spend on crossbows to reliably have the villagers kill the dragon for them so the adventurers can maximize profit from the Dragon's hoard with minimal risk to themselves?

(Assume the adventurers care nothing for the lives of the commoners and won't participate in the battle)

[Thunderous Mojo]

The dragon has 60' Blindsense, so heavy obscurement is not going to impede the beastie too heavily. Frightful Presence affects creatures that are aware of the dragon.

A cleric could use Calm Emotions, to counter the dragon fear, and then Meld Into Stone, to attempt to preserve concentration on Calm Emotions.

[MaxWilson]

The dragon has 60' Blindsense, so heavy obscurement is not going to impede the beastie too heavily.

Except for the fact that after you drop a Fog Cloud on it, and if the DM rules (as many do) that Fog Cloud is opaque in both directions, anyone more than 60' away no longer has disadvantage to shoot it. In this scenario that's a big deal. Effectively it means only those 30' or closer to the dragon have disadvantage, since someone 35' away can move 30' to 65' and then shoot it. It quadruples the damage output of Guards.


Frightful Presence affects creatures that are aware of the dragon.

Yes, it frightens them. What does Frightened do?

Frightened
A frightened creature has disadvantage on Ability Checks and Attack rolls while the source of its fear is within line of sight.
The creature can’t willingly move closer to the source of its fear.

Normally this disadvantage would be a problem, but not when you also have advantage on your attacks due to the dragon being unable to see you as long as it's in the Fog Cloud and more than 60' away.


A cleric could use Calm Emotions, to counter the dragon fear, and then Meld Into Stone, to attempt to preserve concentration on Calm Emotions.

Calm Emotions requires the crossbowmen to assume Fireball Formation though, and it won't cancel out penalties for being at long range. Use it if you've got it but I wouldn't count on it too heavily in the hundreds-of-soldiers scenario.

[Unoriginal]

Thinking out loud...

If the PCs are able to create heavy obscurement to cancel out the fear disadvantage, "arm every able-bodied person in town" might work pretty well. Depending on how the DM rules heavy obscurement (opaque or not?) you'd either want it directly on the dragon or on the archers. Concentration-free spells like Pyrotechnics are probably your best bet here.

And of course potentially adding long-range firepower from a Sharpshooter Fighter or Spell Sniper Warlock helps, even if they're only 6th level or so.

I mean you can indeed add things to make it more viable, and having a few hundreds of terrible ranged attackers supporting the PCs while they're engaged with the monster is better than not having them. But just the +0-to-hit Commoners aren't going to work by themselves against any big NPC with a modicum of tactical reasoning.



So for all the people saying white room is foolish how about this scenario. Group of adventurers spend a fair amount of money arming a plateau village worth of commoners with crossbows and teach them to use them well enough to not shoot themselves in the foot but not enough to be proficient. When the dragon is out raiding a different village the adventurers sneak in and break all the dragon's eggs. Leaving plenty of evidence that it was the villagers that did it.
There is not enough time to teach the villagers advanced tactics so just space them out far enough so they don't get in each other's way.
Dragon will be enraged so probably will engage directly rather than skirmish and the plateau doesn't have much in the way of boulders for dropping.

What is the least amount the adventurers have to spend on crossbows to reliably have the villagers kill the dragon for them so the adventurers can maximize profit from the Dragon's hoard with minimal risk to themselves?

(Assume the adventurers care nothing for the lives of the commoners and won't participate in the battle)

...if the adventurers don't care about the commoners' lives, and can frame the commoners as responsible for killing the dragon's offsprings, then the adventurers have to spend exactly 0 on the crossbows, nor care about the villagers actually killing the dragon.

Just rob the hoard while the dragon's busy with the rampage.

[Danielqueue1]

...if the adventurers don't care about the commoners' lives, and can frame the commoners as responsible for killing the dragon's offsprings, then the adventurers have to spend exactly 0 on the crossbows, nor care about the villagers actually killing the dragon.

Just rob the hoard while the dragon's busy with the rampage.

Accept the risk that the dragon burns down village, returns home after 5 minutes of work because they don't have a lot of crossbows. finds adventurers loading cart. Kills adventurers.

VS

loot hoard at one's leasure because the dragon is dead. At the cost of a small part of the hoard.

Also if you tell me that adventurers don't come up with silly schemes like this, I will ask if I should roll an insight check or if a passive insight of 8 is enough.

[Unoriginal]

Accept the risk that the dragon burns down village, returns home after 5 minutes of work because they don't have a lot of crossbows. finds adventurers loading cart. Kills adventurers.

It takes a long while to destroy a village and make sure everyone is dead. A furious dragon won't tolerate survivors and will likely keep venting their hatred on the spot for a good long while. Or search other villages around to destroy for the same purpose.

As long as they're close to the lair when the dragon storms out they should have enough time for a big grab.



Also if you tell me that adventurers don't come up with silly schemes like this, I will ask if I should roll an insight check or if a passive insight of 8 is enough.

Well you asked for the least amount of gold spent, not for the what plans the PCs are the most likely to go for.

They could even get a negative amount of gold spent if they convince the village to pay them to kill the dragon.

[MaxWilson]

...if the adventurers don't care about the commoners' lives, and can frame the commoners as responsible for killing the dragon's offsprings, then the adventurers have to spend exactly 0 on the crossbows, nor care about the villagers actually killing the dragon.

Just rob the hoard while the dragon's busy with the rampage.

That seems pretty dangerous. You think the dragon's just going to let you walk away with the hoard? Dead dragon would be safer.


Well you asked for the least amount of gold spent, not for the what plans the PCs are the most likely to go for.

He asked for "What is the least amount the adventurers have to spend on crossbows to reliably have the villagers kill the dragon for them so the adventurers can maximize profit from the Dragon's hoard with minimal risk to themselves?"

Zero gold obviously doesn't cut it because it doesn't kill the dragon.

[da newt]

The light crossbow is a simple weapon. "Most people can use simple weapons with proficiency. These weapons ... often found in the hands of commoners." PHB pg 146.

[Unoriginal]

That seems pretty dangerous. You think the dragon's just going to let you walk away with the hoard? Dead dragon would be safer.



He asked for "What is the least amount the adventurers have to spend on crossbows to reliably have the villagers kill the dragon for them so the adventurers can maximize profit from the Dragon's hoard with minimal risk to themselves?"

Zero gold obviously doesn't cut it because it doesn't kill the dragon.

Fair.

In that case, here's my advice:

-Make clear the crossbows are a free loan to the villagers, not a gift. Give the bolts for free, however.

-Pick a village that has a notable river, and train the villagers to dive underwater after they've fired their shot (minimizing how many crossbows (and their wielders) get burned in the attack).

-Get the crossbows that survived the attack back once the dragon is dead.

-Go around the country and sell "one of the crossbows that killed the terrifying dragon X at Y place" as collector items. Accept tests to prove the claim is legit. Destroy some/most of them if it means you can sell the remaining ones for more.

That should easily cover the cost of the lost crossbows and the cost of the bolts.


The light crossbow is a simple weapon. "Most people can use simple weapons with proficiency. These weapons ... often found in the hands of commoners." PHB pg 146.

Uh, that's weird, I recall something (in the MM, maybe?) saying that creatures by default were only proficient in the weapons they had in their statblocks (and unarmed strikes, because everyone is proficient in that).

[Thunderous Mojo]

Normally this disadvantage would be a problem, but not when you also have advantage on your attacks due to the dragon being unable to see you as long as it's in the Fog Cloud and more than 60' away.

Great Post MaxWilson!

The tricky part is if the dragon is entirely enshrouded in the Fog Cloud, then the soldiers also cannot see the dragon.

If you position the Fog Cloud in a manner that a portion of the Dragon is visible, such as the tail, it wouldn't be an unreasonable ruling for a DM to determine that the size of the target, (a dragon's tail) warrants an increase to the difficulty of the shot.

Likely, this would amount to increase to the AC of the visible tail. In the extremis it could be Disadvantage.

Initiative grouping could also be an issue. Grouping creatures of the same type under the same Initiative roll is an abstraction. Massed Fire, depends upon all the attacks occurring simultaneously when the dragon is most vulnerable.

A DM determined to foil Fog Cloud, could rule that even if Fog Cloud was cast as part of the "Red Fire Team Initiative Group", the casters turn ended, before the rest of the "Red Fire Team Initiative Group" could take their own individual turns.

Thusly the Dragon can take their Wing Attack Legendary action right after the Fog Cloud goes into effect.

Considering the odds are 400 to One, and D&D has never exactly handled that scenario well in any system outside AD&D's Battlesystem,
(and that is even up for debate 😁), a DM adjudicating in this manner, isn't beyond the realm of feasibility.

We might have to put an asterisk by Fog Cloud, with the attached disclaimer that some DMs may allow it to work swimmingly, whilst other's might have counter measures readied.

This might be strange, but personally I would be a bit disappointed as a player, if the dragon had no counter to Fog Cloud. I love the War-gamer chess match, and would want any battle with an Ancient Red Dragon to be a nail bitting, stressful event, with many moves and counter moves.

[MaxWilson]

(A) The tricky part is if the dragon is entirely enshrouded in the Fog Cloud, then the soldiers also cannot see the dragon.

...

(B) Initiative grouping could also be an issue. Grouping creatures of the same type under the same Initiative roll is an abstraction. Massed Fire, depends upon all the attacks occurring simultaneously when the dragon is most vulnerable.

A DM determined to foil Fog Cloud, could rule that even if Fog Cloud was cast as part of the "Red Fire Team Initiative Group", the casters turn ended,
before the rest of the "Red Fire Team Initiative Group" could take their own individual turns. Thusly the Dragon can take their Wing Attack Legendary action right after the Fog Cloud goes into effect.

...

(C) We might have to put an asterisk by Fog Cloud, with the attached disclaimer that some DMs may allow it to work swimmingly, whilst other's might have counter measures readied.

This might be strange, but (D) personally I would be a bit disappointed as a player, if the dragon had no counter to Fog Cloud. I love the War-gamer chess match, and would want any battle with an Ancient Red Dragon to be a nail bitting, stressful event, with many moves and counter moves.


(A) In this case it doesn't matter if the crossbowmen have disadvantage from not being able to see the dragon, since they also already have disadvantage from being frightened, and advantage for being unseen. Advantage is a disadvantage cancel out to nothing, even if you have disadvantage for multiple reasons.

(B) Yeah, you might need two casters, one with a Fog Cloud and one with a Readied Fog Cloud to go off after a wing attack. Although, it's also true that even after moving, the dragon may still have the Fog Cloud between it and a large number of soldiers, all of whom get to shoot it without disadvantage--even if "only" 100 soldiers are hidden from its view by one 40' diameter Fog Cloud, that's still a lot of damage!

(C) The even bigger caveat is "how does your DM rule in Fog Cloud?" By strict RAW it only creates heavy obscurement, and (post-errata) heavy obscurement doesn't blind creatures within it, it only effectively blinds creatures trying to see what's within it, so by strict RAW dropping Fog Cloud on the dragon hurts you instead of helping. If the DM runs it that way you need to instead cast it on the crossbowmen, but that requires upcasting to avoid putting everybody in Fireball Formation. However, many DMs run Fog Cloud as opaque for various reasons.

Sleet Storm and Darkness can work too but have smaller AoEs and shorter durations.

(D) Agreed. Dragons are iconic enough that they should be able to engage in counterplay. Blindsight helps some but I think it's iconic, thematic and more fun just to make all dragons Dragonic Sorcerers. Then the dragon has options like Quickened Dispel Magic, Quickened Dimension Door, and sneaking up under cover of Invisibility to kill the wizards/druids before they can Fog Cloud. I want the PCs to be paranoid about what MIGHT happen even if their plan goes well, and spellcasting makes it work.

Here's what I'd like to see:

"Is that really a sparrow flying towards us, or a Polymorphed dragon?"

(One arrow later)

"It was a Polymorphed... cow?"

"This dragon is just messing with us. We might be in over our heads guys."

[Danielqueue1]

Well you asked for the least amount of gold spent, not for the what plans the PCs are the most likely to go for.
.

Fair enough.

[JackPhoenix]

That seems pretty dangerous. You think the dragon's just going to let you walk away with the hoard? Dead dragon would be safer.

Well, you can always hope one of the villagers has a special dragon-killing arrow and the ability to talk to animals. There's a precedent for that....