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View Full Version : Optimization The D&D 5e DPR challenge! Can you make a level 5 character with more damage?



pvcarrao
2021-06-07, 10:36 AM
Me and my friends have been playing around with some numbers trying to find the best DPR at level 5. This is just for fun, we will probably never use this characters in a real game, we just like doing this kind of builds and math. We of course know that this isn't how you play tabletop RPGs, it is just for theorycrafting and we find it fund.
So we created a set of rules and 3 categories for this challenge, here are the rules:

The Challenge:
Every character needs at least 17 AC. This is the minimum to survive.
No magical itens. For simplicity.
The character can have any +2/+1 stat bonuses for race, but no extra racial bonuses (like tortle AC). For simplicity.
The characters will start long rested.
There will be 30 rounds of combat with 2 short rests and no long rests in a day.
This means that each short rest ability can be used 3 times and long rest abilities 1 time.
Multiclassing allowed. UA not allowed.
To calculate avg DPR we will use the numbers on this table:



Added Crit Damage

Chance to hit



Normal
0,086
+6 to hit
0,58


Advantage
0,119
+7 to hit
0,63


19-20
0,172
+8 to hit
0,73


18-20
0,259
Advantage
0,82


So average DPR with no resources = no_resource_dpr = number of attacks * chance_to_hit * (dice_damage + damage_increases + added_crit_damage * (dice_damage))
Average DPR increase short rests = short_rest_dpr = short_rest_damage * 3 /30. - 3 shorts rests divided by 30 rounds.
Average DPR increase long rest = long_rest_dpr = long_rest_damage * 1 / 30. - 1 long rest divided by 30 rounds.

Total DPR = no_resource_dpr + short_rest_dpr + long_rest_dpr

Sneak attack: 50% of your attacks can be sneak attacks. If you have some ability that enables more sneak attacks (Swashbuckler's Raukish audacity) you can have 100% of sneak attacks.
Frenzy: not allowed because of the hefty costs in form of exaustion.
Rage: 100% rage uptime if the character has at least 3 rage uses.
Concentration spells: They last for up to 10 turns each cast.
Debuffs: abilities that debuff a single enemy (like Hexblade's Curse) will work for 3 rounds.

There are 3 categories: melee, mobile and ranged.
Melee: simple melee damage dealing characters.
mobile: mobile characters deal damage in melee and need to have at least one ability that allows them to move as a bonus or free action. We could think of: concentrating on expeditious retreat, cunning action, at least 2 ki points in step of the wind per short rest, at least 2 casts of misty step per short rest. Other forms of mobility are allowed if they are as strong as theese options.
Ranged: simple ranged damage dealing characters.

The current champions:

Melee:
Because of reckless attack barbarians seems to be really the king of melee DPR. No other character came close to this damage, even PAM fighters. I choose path of the beast because of the extra claw attack.
Beast Barbarian:
Weapons: Claw and shield.
Feat: ASI on STR
Since we have 100% rage uptime we are including rage in "no_resource_dpr".

This character makes 3 claw attacks for 1d6 + STR + Rage = 3,5 + 4 + 2 damage each with advantage because of reckless attack.
no_resource_dpr = number of attacks * chance_to_hit * (dice_damage + damage_increases + added_crit_damage * (dice_damage))
no_resource_dpr = 3 * 0,82 * (3,5 + 6 + 0,119 * (3,5)) = 24,4
There is no other source of damage using short or long rests.
Total DPR = 24,4 avg DPR

Mobile:
This category is pretty cool. We tried some rogues and monks but nothing could come close to the Hexblade. Hexblade seems a bit OP but limited in only dealing damage. I even tried a wizard/druid of spores multiclass conccentrating in expeditious retreat and hitting with simbiotic entity + booming blade + shiellelagh, but it also came short compared to the might Hexblade.

The Hexblade:
Weapons: longsword and shield.
Feat: ASI on CHA.
Invocations: Thirsting blade, Improved pact weapon, whatever.
Mobility: 2 casts of misty step per short rest.
The third spell slot will be used for hex, making hex 100% uptime. So we are including hex in "no_resource_dpr".

This character makes 2 longsword attacks for 1d8 + CHA + improved_pact_weapon + hex_damage = 4,5 + 4 + 1 + 3,5 damage each with + 8 to hit because of improved pact weapon.
no_resource_dpr = number of attacks * chance_to_hit * (dice_damage + damage_increases + added_crit_damage * (dice_damage))
no_resource_dpr = 2 * 0,73 * (4,5 + 3,5 + 5 + 0,086 * (4,5 + 3,5) = 20 DPR
For short rest damage we include 3 rounds of hexblade's curse:
short_rest_damage = number_of_rounds * number_of_atks * chance_to_hit * (extra_damage) = 3 * 2 * 0,73 * 3 = 13,14
short_rest_dpr = short_rest_damage * 3 /30 = 13,14 * 3 /30 = 1,3
Total DPR = 21,3 avg DPR

Ranged:
Again we have the Hexblade as the king, this time with eldritch blast. Crossbow expert fighters and rangers came close but could not compete. Other spellcasters cantrips are too weak and even with better concentration spells we couldnt find something stronger than the blaster.

The Hexblade - blaster edition:
Weapons: longsword and shield. - will be casting eldritch blast.
Feat: ASI on CHA.
Invocations: Agonizing blast, whatever, whatever.
We will be using only hex as a spell, included in no_resource_dpr.

This character makes 2 eldritch blast attacks for 1d10 + CHA + hex_damage = 5,5 + 4 + 3,5 damage each with + 7 to hit.
no_resource_dpr = number of attacks * chance_to_hit * (dice_damage + damage_increases + added_crit_damage * (dice_damage))
no_resource_dpr = 2 * 0,63 * (5,5 + 3,5 + 4 + 0,086 * (5,5 + 3,5) = 17,35 DPR
For short rest damage we include 3 rounds of hexblade's curse:
short_rest_damage = number_of_rounds * number_of_atks * chance_to_hit * (extra_damage) = 3 * 2 * 0,73 * 3 = 13,14
short_rest_dpr = short_rest_damage * 3 /30 = 13,14 * 3 /30 = 1,3
Total DPR = 18,65 avg DPR
TLDR: This is for the munchkins out there, anyone can beat theese character in this parameters? A better melee DPR than a beast barbarian with 24 DPR, a better mobile than a Hexblade with 21 DPR or a better ranged than an hexblade with 18?

GeneralVryth
2021-06-07, 10:57 AM
What about rules for AOE effects? Assuming it hit 3 targets and they have a 50% chance to make their save a single Fireball would be worth 2.1 DPR on its own. I can imagine mixing and matching enough spells with basic weapon damage to get close to these numbers assuming the AOEs can hit enough targets.

pvcarrao
2021-06-07, 11:13 AM
That's interesting, 2.1 DPR for the fireball is good damage. Maybe I can rule that you can hit 3 targets with aoe 2 times a day at most, that's seems reasonable.

When I tried spellcasters I was on the concentration spells + cantrips route. The best I could do was a wizard 2/druid 3 with booming blade, shiellelagh, simbiotic entity and flame sphere. I got a total of 22 DPR in the melee category, assuming flame sphere hit only one target since the aoe is so small.

The character did 1d8(quarterstaff) + WIS + 1d6(necrotic) + 1d8(booming blade) damage per hit, only one attack. Also 2d4 damage with his reaction using Halo of Spores and 3d6 save for half damage with a level 3 Flame sphere in the bonus action (or 2d6 when using level 2 spell slot).

Maybe with a full wizard using fireball and a cantrip we can get something that's on par with the hexblade. The problem is that the cantrips are so weak compared to extra attack or eldritch blast + hex.

Man_Over_Game
2021-06-07, 11:45 AM
I think the 50% Sneak Attack chance is low. There's a greater than 50% chance that the target you're likely wanting to focus already has an ally adjacent to them, and then add on the chance of you getting Advantage from a circumstantial benefit. Rogues are often the ones that stay out of bad situations, and can use Cunning Action to get out of them, so they don't really suffer from Disadvantage as most other attackers.

I'd put it as 75%. Seems more reasonable.

Realistically, the percentage is probably closer to 90% (which is why a lot of the SA granting powers are pretty useless), but 75% seems reasonable as a compromise between the two. It's not like the Swashbuckler's attack feature is doubling your SA damage, right?

17 AC also seems far too steep for a level 5 character. You're basically blocking out any characters that don't have medium armor + shields, which seems odd for a DPS contest. Rogues can't participate, since they can't have the +5 to Dex they'd need in order to compete.

15 seems more reasonable, in that regard. Most tanks are only just hitting 17 at that level.

Frogreaver
2021-06-07, 11:52 AM
I’m not seeing how the mobility hexblade gets 2 mobility spells per short rest and hex? He only has 2 spell slots per short rest.

Dork_Forge
2021-06-07, 11:59 AM
I’m not seeing how the mobility hexblade gets 2 mobility spells per short rest and hex? He only has 2 spell slots per short rest.

Seems like just a fundamental error.

I'd lump 'Hex 100% uptime' in that same category, just because you can make it a long duration effect does not make it 100% up time. It's still concentration and even if it wasn't you've still burned a very limited resource to trigger it so in no way shape or form is it 'no resource.'

Frogreaver
2021-06-07, 12:08 PM
Seems like just a fundamental error.

I'd lump 'Hex 100% uptime' in that same category, just because you can make it a long duration effect does not make it 100% up time. It's still concentration and even if it wasn't you've still burned a very limited resource to trigger it so in no way shape or form is it 'no resource.'

Yea. As is the challenge reads that it was designed to screw over almost everything but warlocks.

30 rounds of combat is a lot

17 ac is high for primary caster characters

A cool compromise would be allowing concentration spells 3-5 rounds and that increases to 100% uptime for the duration with warcaster or con save proficiency.

Even then Giving a single concentration spell the ability to cover 10 rounds when it has a 1 minute duration is a lot.

Rogue sneak attack at 50%.

No AOE rules.

But I won’t complain much as it’s impossible to set up a perfectly fair challenge. I am curious what characters thrive best under these conditions.

stoutstien
2021-06-07, 12:12 PM
Where would artillerist EC fall?

da newt
2021-06-07, 12:28 PM
Using your rules, wouldn't a PAM Hexblade Warlock w/ staff and shield out perform the given mobile champ even without the increased OpAtt triggers?

pvcarrao
2021-06-07, 12:32 PM
Yea. As is the challenge reads that it was designed to screw over almost everything but warlocks.

30 rounds of combat is a lot

17 ac is high for primary caster characters

A cool compromise would be allowing concentration spells 3-5 rounds and that increases to 100% uptime for the duration with warcaster or con save proficiency.

Even then Giving a single concentration spell the ability to cover 10 rounds when it has a 1 minute duration is a lot.

Rogue sneak attack at 50%.

No AOE rules.

But I won’t complain much as it’s impossible to set up a perfectly fair challenge. I am curious what characters thrive best under these conditions.

Sorry for that, that was a mistake, but you are correct. I sadly made a bad challenge :/. Should include aoe rules, the 17 is to steep and sneak at 50% can be easly raised to 75%. Should I update everything? Maybe that's the way to go. Concentration spells are too strong also, after thinking 10 rounds is really a lot.

Man_Over_Game
2021-06-07, 12:37 PM
Sorry for that, that was a mistake, but you are correct. I sadly made a bad challenge :/. Should include aoe rules, the 17 is to steep and sneak at 50% can be easly raised to 75%. Should I update everything? Maybe that's the way to go. Concentration spells are too strong also, after thinking 10 rounds is really a lot.

The game recommends calculating temporary (Concentration) things according to 3 rounds, and treating AoEs as always hitting 2 enemies, as far as what they do for CR so I'd use that as a baseline.

I'd still keep Rage on as indefinite, the chance of someone losing Rage at level 5 is pretty slim without a brutal DM, and nitpicking an exact number doesn't really seem worth it.

pvcarrao
2021-06-07, 12:38 PM
Revised:
The Challenge:

No magical itens. For simplicity.
The character can have any +2/+1 stat bonuses for race, but no extra racial bonuses (like tortle AC). For simplicity.
Stats will be standard array.
The characters will start long rested.
There will be 20 rounds of combat with 2 short rests and no long rests in a day.
This means that each short rest ability can be used 3 times and long rest abilities 1 time.
Multiclassing allowed. UA not allowed.
To calculate avg DPR we will use the numbers on this table:



To hit and chance to fail save
Chance to hit

+1 to hit or DC 9 chance to fail save
0,33


+2 to hit or DC 10 chance to fail save
0,38


+3 to hit or DC 11 chance to fail save
0,43


+4 to hit or DC 12 chance to fail save
0,48


+5 to hit or DC 13 chance to fail save
0,53


+6 to hit or DC 14 chance to fail save
0,58


+7 to hit or DC 15 chance to fail save
0,63


+8 to hit or DC 16 chance to fail save
0,68


Added crit damage
0,086




So average DPR with no resources = no_resource_dpr = number of attacks * chance_to_hit * (dice_damage + damage_increases + added_crit_damage * (dice_damage))
Average DPR increase short rests = short_rest_dpr = short_rest_damage * 3 /20. - 3 shorts rests divided by 20 rounds.
Average DPR increase long rest = long_rest_dpr = long_rest_damage * 1 / 20. - 1 long rest divided by 20 rounds.

Total DPR = no_resource_dpr + short_rest_dpr + long_rest_dpr

Specific scenarios:
Sneak attack: 75% of your attacks can be sneak attacks. If you have some ability that enables more sneak attacks (Swashbuckler's Raukish audacity) you can have 100% of sneak attacks.
Frenzy: not allowed because of the hefty costs in form of exaustion.
Rage: each rage accounts for 10 rounds.
Concentration spells: They last for up to 3 rounds each cast.
Debuffs: abilities that debuff a single enemy (like Hexblade's Curse) will work for 3 rounds.
Summons: You can only have one summoned creature at a time (sumoning 8 creatures is too strong DPR-wise).
Familiars can't be used to consistently grant advantage
AOE: aoe spells hit 2 targets at most

There are 3 categories: melee, mobile and ranged.
Melee: simple melee damage dealing characters.
obile: mobile characters deal damage in melee and need to have at least one ability that allows them to move as a bonus or free action. We could think of: concentrating on expeditious retreat, cunning action, at least 2 ki points in step of the wind per short rest, at least 2 casts of misty step per short rest. Other forms of mobility are allowed if they are as strong as theese options.
Ranged: simple ranged damage dealing characters.

Edit: formatting
Edit2: changed to 20 rounds of combat

Misery Esquire
2021-06-07, 02:11 PM
20 rounds of combat and 2 short rests; should we therefore do math as there being 3 combats of ~6.66 rounds each? (Two of 7, one of 6?)

Angelalex242
2021-06-07, 02:50 PM
What's wrong with Paladin stacking smite and spell smite to whack for all he's worth?

If you're using devotion, you can also add to your to hit bonus with his channel divinity.

Hael
2021-06-07, 03:41 PM
Things like hexblade curse, hex, and concentration only being up 3 rounds seems *way* too low (in my games BBEGs usually last longer than that, but ok). Having Rage last ten rounds vs only 3 for those is basically going to make barbarians auto win over warlocks (and in my experience it tends to be the case that rage is up less often than long term spells like hex which are typically there as prebuffs over multiple fights)

In general, having done this exercise a lot of times, you're going to find that variant human/custom lineage with PAM + GWM is going to be superior to str ASI with one handers like you have. Especially for classes like barbarian/warlock that have self-advantage.

Since you've removed the summon component for this exercise (and they only last 3 rounds), I can pretty safely guess that a custom lineage Zealot barbarian with PAM/GWM is going to win this match. A PAM/GWM battlemaster might be close but I think will lose over 20 rounds.

Theres an outside chance a Sorlock might be able to compete, where you burn all the spell slots other than hex for quicken EB fuel on your downtime. THat will produce 4 Eldritch blasts per turn until you run out of resources. However, it's not quite online yet, so I don't think it can sustain that dpr over 20 rounds and so will lose.

Frogreaver
2021-06-07, 04:05 PM
A zealot barbarian with variant human mobile and one of the damage feats probably wins the mobile damage dealer line as well, provided he qualifies. With mobile and his +10 movement speed from barbarian.

Dork_Forge
2021-06-07, 04:23 PM
Things like hexblade curse, hex, and concentration only being up 3 rounds seems *way* too low (in my games BBEGs usually last longer than that, but ok). Having Rage last ten rounds vs only 3 for those is basically going to make barbarians auto win over warlocks (and in my experience it tends to be the case that rage is up less often than long term spells like hex which are typically there as prebuffs over multiple fights)


BBEGs are not the standard of combat for most games, they are the exception. It's more reasonable to assume Rage goes the distance becuase it's much harder to break than a concentration spell like Hex. To guarantee Hex lasting over multiple encounters you'd need to invest in Con saves to make that convincing, so either Res:Con or Warcaster and a decent Con modifier.

The biggest argument to be made here imo is just letting Hex be precast since the duration gets so long with Pact casting, if you're even still using Hex now it's eating up 3rd level slots.

Hael
2021-06-07, 04:28 PM
Incidentally, these white room DPR challenges tend to greatly underestimate the real world value of spells in my experience.

My group tends to play a lot of oneshots in mega/endless dungeons and spells like spirit guardians tend to produce results that greatly exceed what a white room analysis shows. Indeed when you actually count total damage done, we often find that our tier2 cleric might simply double what the rest of the party does combined, including optimized martials.

Of course, its not fair b/c there you have a group actively pushing things into and out of the area of influence, as well as providing defensive cover to keep up the concentration (casting darkness on the cleric for instance) and really requiring dungeons to have multiple fights back to back (to ensure the 10 min duration is used to its fullest). Of course thats all campaign specific, so it rarely gets computed, however in my experience players are very good at maximizing when spells are useful. Eg Fireball tends to be cast on the group of 20+ spiders all clumped together and not on the 2 randoms the white room analysis wants.

pvcarrao
2021-06-07, 04:29 PM
Well, Zealot barbarian seems pretty strong for melee and mobile. I removed the extra feat from variant human since racial bonuses are off.

Melee:
Weapon: Greatsword
Feat: Polearm Master
Str = 16

2 attacks for 2d6 + 5 damage. +6 to hit with advantage.
Bonus action attack for 1d4 + 5 with polearm master. +6 to hit with advantage.
Extra 1d6+2 per turn as part of one attack. If at least one of the three attacks land there will be this extra damage. Chance of extra damage happening 1-(1-chance_to_hit)^3 = 0,994 ~~ 100%. Thats 100% chance for 5,5 extra damage per round.

Total DPR = 2*0,82*(2d6 + 5 + 0,086 * (2d6)) + 0,82*(1d4+5+ 0,086*(1d4)) + 5,5 = 32,5 DPR :cool:
That's a lot! O.O

For mobile I think mobile feat + fast movement qualify. We just remove Polearm Master and add mobile:

Mobile:
Weapon: Greatsword
Feat: Mobile
Str = 16

2 attacks for 2d6 + 5 damage. +6 to hit with advantage.
Extra 1d6+2 per turn as part of one attack. If at least one of the three attacks land there will be this extra damage. Chance of extra damage happening 1-(1-chance_to_hit)^3 = 0,994 ~~ 100%. Thats 100% chance for 5,5 extra damage per round.

Total DPR = 2*0,82*(2d6 + 5 + 0,086 * (2d6)) + 5,5 = 26,1 DPR :cool:
Pretty big also, no chance for the Hexblade.

I wish a monk could compete, but reckless attack is very very good indeed.

pvcarrao
2021-06-07, 04:32 PM
Incidentally, these white room DPR challenges tend to greatly underestimate the real world value of spells in my experience.

My group tends to play a lot of oneshots in mega/endless dungeons and spells like spirit guardians tend to produce results that greatly exceed what a white room analysis shows. Indeed when you actually count total damage done, we often find that our tier2 cleric might simply double what the rest of the party does combined, including optimized martials.

Of course, its not fair b/c there you have a group actively pushing things into and out of the area of influence, as well as providing defensive cover to keep up the concentration (casting darkness on the cleric for instance) and really requiring dungeons to have multiple fights back to back (to ensure the 10 min duration is used to its fullest). Of course thats all campaign specific, so it rarely gets computed, however in my experience players are very good at maximizing when spells are useful. Eg Fireball tends to be cast on the group of 20+ spiders all clumped together and not on the 2 randoms the white room analysis wants.

Yep, I tottaly agree. Just find it fun to speculate and trying to "simulate" an average situation. In a real situation the versaility/utility of spells and combat tactics (pushing/stunningknocking prone... enemies ) are far more important than white room damage.

GeneralVryth
2021-06-07, 04:39 PM
Just for the sake of comparison basic Fiend Warlock not even trying to be clever just blowing things up at range:

Fiend Warlock
Cha = 18 (or +7 with prof)
Eldritch Invocations: Agonizing Blast...

6 x Fireball is:
6 x 8d6 (28) x 2 = 336
336 * .815 (.63 + (1-.63)x.5) = 273.84

14 Eldritch Blasts for the remainder is:
14 x .63 x (11 + 8 + (11 x .086)) = 175.92372

(273.84 + 175.92372) / 20 = 22.488186
or ~22.5 DPR

Mind you if the AOE targets were 2.5 average that DPR goes up to ~26 and if they were 3 average it would be ~29.25

pvcarrao
2021-06-07, 04:57 PM
Just for the sake of comparison basic Fiend Warlock not even trying to be clever just blowing things up at range:

Fiend Warlock
Cha = 18 (or +7 with prof)
Eldritch Invocations: Agonizing Blast...

6 x Fireball is:
6 x 8d6 (28) x 2 = 336
336 * .815 (.63 + (1-.63)x.5) = 273.84

14 Eldritch Blasts for the remainder is:
14 x .63 x (11 + 8 + (11 x .086)) = 175.92372

(273.84 + 175.92372) / 20 = 22.488186
or ~22.5 DPR

Mind you if the AOE targets were 2.5 average that DPR goes up to ~26 and if they were 3 average it would be ~29.25

That is really good, but why 6 fireballs? There are only 3 spell slots, I must be missing something.

Frogreaver
2021-06-07, 05:26 PM
That is really good, but why 6 fireballs? There are only 3 spell slots, I must be missing something.

Warlock at level 5 gets level 3 slots (2 total). 2 short rests generates 4 more since their slots recover on short rest.

pvcarrao
2021-06-07, 05:29 PM
Warlock at level 5 gets level 3 slots (2 total). 2 short rests generates 4 more since their slots recover on short rest.

It's fine, got confused, lol

Asisreo1
2021-06-07, 05:46 PM
Revised:
The Challenge:

No magical itens. For simplicity.
The character can have any +2/+1 stat bonuses for race, but no extra racial bonuses (like tortle AC). For simplicity.
Stats will be standard array.
The characters will start long rested.
There will be 20 rounds of combat with 2 short rests and no long rests in a day.
This means that each short rest ability can be used 3 times and long rest abilities 1 time.
Multiclassing allowed. UA not allowed.
To calculate avg DPR we will use the numbers on this table:



To hit
Chance to hit

+1
0,33


+2
0,38


+3
0,43


+4
0,48


+5
0,53


+6
0,58


+7
0,63


+8
0,68


Added crit damage
0,086




So average DPR with no resources = no_resource_dpr = number of attacks * chance_to_hit * (dice_damage + damage_increases + added_crit_damage * (dice_damage))
Average DPR increase short rests = short_rest_dpr = short_rest_damage * 3 /20. - 3 shorts rests divided by 20 rounds.
Average DPR increase long rest = long_rest_dpr = long_rest_damage * 1 / 20. - 1 long rest divided by 20 rounds.

Total DPR = no_resource_dpr + short_rest_dpr + long_rest_dpr

Specific scenarios:
Sneak attack: 75% of your attacks can be sneak attacks. If you have some ability that enables more sneak attacks (Swashbuckler's Raukish audacity) you can have 100% of sneak attacks.
Frenzy: not allowed because of the hefty costs in form of exaustion.
Rage: each rage accounts for 10 rounds.
Concentration spells: They last for up to 3 rounds each cast.
Debuffs: abilities that debuff a single enemy (like Hexblade's Curse) will work for 3 rounds.
Summons: You can only have one summoned creature at a time (sumoning 8 creatures is too strong DPR-wise).
Familiars can't be used to consistently grant advantage
AOE: aoe spells hit 2 targets at most

There are 3 categories: melee, mobile and ranged.
Melee: simple melee damage dealing characters.
obile: mobile characters deal damage in melee and need to have at least one ability that allows them to move as a bonus or free action. We could think of: concentrating on expeditious retreat, cunning action, at least 2 ki points in step of the wind per short rest, at least 2 casts of misty step per short rest. Other forms of mobility are allowed if they are as strong as theese options.
Ranged: simple ranged damage dealing characters.

Edit: formatting
Edit2: changed to 20 rounds of combat
Before I place all my eggs in one basket, let me ask a few more questions:

To-hit: +9?

Do we assume the creature always fail a save (even for damage)?

Edit: Actually, I can extrapolate that +9 will have .73 chance to hit.

Sherlockpwns
2021-06-07, 06:10 PM
Believe it or not, I actually put the much maligned Battle Rager into contention. I won't run the math for you because I am lazy, but it's one of the few combos out there that can use a two-handed weapon and still get a bonus-attack. (1d4+str).

This means it can use a greatsword with GWM and still get a bonus attack, all at advantage of course because dying is the fun part. This means it can do more dmg than a PAM/GWM fighter or "standard" barbarian without paying for the PAM feat and gaining the 1.5 avg dmg difference between 1d10 and 2d6. You do end up 1AC lower than half-plate though.

Otherwise that's 3 rages of absolute bonkers damage only passed by a berserker as far as I know... at least until exhaustion catches up with the poor bastard.

Plus you get that awesome 3 damage when you grapple someone /s

pvcarrao
2021-06-07, 06:50 PM
Before I place all my eggs in one basket, let me ask a few more questions:

To-hit: +9?

Do we assume the creature always fail a save (even for damage)?

Edit: Actually, I can extrapolate that +9 will have .73 chance to hit.

+9 is .73, correct.

And saving throws are similar to to hit chances, with 15 DC = +6 to hit. So with a 14 spell DC the creature have 0.58 chances to FAIL a save.
16 DC = +7 to hit, 18 = +8...

GeneralVryth
2021-06-07, 07:02 PM
Just to hit the Cleric comment from earlier:

Arcana Cleric:
Wis 18
Str or Dex 16 (with some method of having a 1d8 weapon, there are a few different ways to achieve this based off of race)

2 Spirit Guardians lasting 3 rounds and hitting 2 targets:
2 * 3d8 (13.5) * 3 * 2 = 162 * .815 = 132.03

20 rounds of Spiritual Weapon:
20 * .63 * (1d8 + 4 + (1d8 * .086) = 111.9762

Filling up the remaining actions with True Flame Blade:
18 * .63 * (3d8 + 7 + (2d8 * .086) = 241.24716

Add up and divide by 20 and you get a DPR of: 24.262668
If Spirit Guardians lasts 6 rounds you get: 30.864168
9 rounds: 37.465668

If Spirit Guardians lasts the whole 10 minutes and you don't bother to short rest you get to: 40.0563585

For a single level 3 spell slot I don't think anything comes close to Spirit Guardians for damage output even when you're just limited to 3 rounds and 2 targets (that's effectively 18d8 save for half).

EDIT:

+9 is .73, correct.

And saving throws are similar to to hit chances, with 15 DC = +6 to hit. So with a 14 spell DC the creature have 0.58 chances to FAIL a save.
16 DC = +7 to hit, 18 = +8...

I have been assuming DC 15 = +7 for failure chance as that is what the equivalent ability scores work out to. All my numbers change if that is not true.

pvcarrao
2021-06-07, 07:12 PM
Just to hit the Cleric comment from earlier:

Arcana Cleric:
Wis 18
Str or Dex 16 (with some method of having a 1d8 weapon, there are a few different ways to achieve this based off of race)

2 Spirit Guardians lasting 3 rounds and hitting 2 targets:
2 * 3d8 (13.5) * 3 * 2 = 162 * .815 = 132.03

20 rounds of Spiritual Weapon:
20 * .63 * (1d8 + 4 + (1d8 * .086) = 111.9762

Filling up the remaining actions with True Flame Blade:
18 * .63 * (3d8 + 7 + (2d8 * .086) = 241.24716

Add up and divide by 20 and you get a DPR of: 24.262668
If Spirit Guardians lasts 6 rounds you get: 30.864168
9 rounds: 37.465668

If Spirit Guardians lasts the whole 10 minutes and you don't bother to short rest you get to: 40.0563585

For a single level 3 spell slot I don't think anything comes close to Spirit Guardians for damage output even when you're just limited to 3 rounds and 2 targets (that's effectively 18d8 save for half).

EDIT:


I have been assuming DC 15 = +7 for failure chance as that is what the equivalent ability scores work out to. All my numbers change if that is not true.
Ops, i made a mistake, DC 15 = +7, you are correct. I will update the last challenge post with this data.

Mjolnirbear
2021-06-07, 07:22 PM
I submit artificer Artillerist, though I'm not the first to do so.

I'm making a few assumptions: I can use infusions and cannons, but not the Replicate Magic Item Infusion to maintain the spirit of simplicity. The cannons are, in my mind, acceptable because they aren't summoned by a spell, they are created by you as a class feature, and denying it would be akin to denying the beast master's pet or barbarian's rage. Assuming point buy, no feat, so INT 18.

At 5th level, with the ffree Cannon (which lasts an hour; far, far exceeding either 30 or 20 rounds)

2d8 (shocking grasp) +1d8 (arcane firearm) +2d8 (either DPS cannon). To-hit of 4 (int) +3 (prof) +1 (infusion).

So that's 22.5 DPR single-target, no concentration spells.

If, say, 6 bad guys conveniently group into a cone shape, then that amount increases by 9x5=45 (aka cone damage)

How could I increase that? I'm so glad you asked:
* bless increases to-hit
* Web causes restrained, granting advantage on attacks and disadvantage on fire cannon's Dex save
* kobold has pack tactics, though unlike the Steel Defender or Homunculous its cannon is not really a creature so might not count as ally
* faerie fire grants advantage though, and takes care of those pesky invisible arcane tricksters
* acid splash has higher dice and can hit two bad guys, making the potential base non-cone damage (2d12+1d8)x2 or 35 + 18 (still use fire for two baddies cause duh) for base 53 resourceless, continual damage as long as I have two bad guys beside each other.

All numbers should be adjusted by chance to hit, of course (I missed if there was an assumption on that) but don't forget that Infusion. Also don't forget I have several options for advantage, and not all require a spell slot, though advantage matters not at all for fire cannon or acid splash. It matters a lot lot more for fire bolt and bolt cannon, though.

18 AC with shield, 19 with defence Infusion, and Shield would also be damn strong if this were more than a DPR challenge.

GeneralVryth
2021-06-07, 07:53 PM
One thing I do think is worth pointing out is level 5 versus level 6 punishes a lot of the combat caster character types. Evokers, Bladesingers, Draconic Sorceres, Valor Bards, and Blades Bards are all full caster sub-classes that get a distinct damage buff at level 6. Not to mention the extra 3rd level slot. Level 5 also locks out any kind of multi-classing for melee classes that depend extra attack. I always thought the best levels for comparison were levels 3 (or 4), 6, 10 (or 12), 14 (or 16) for this kind of reason.

For Bladesingers especially things change significantly going from 11.75892 to 16.33338 for their default action (with only a +3 attack modifier and a +3 casting modifier, using a single d8 weapon).

One thing that is interesting that I realize when typing this, Wizards and Sorcerers don't really have a concentration spell that is worth casting versus dropping a blast because of the concentration limit. It would be interesting if con prof increased the concentration limit some along with having advantage on concentration checks. Though I am sure Clerics become really tough to beat in that case.

GeneralVryth
2021-06-07, 08:08 PM
I submit artificer Artillerist, though I'm not the first to do so.

I'm making a few assumptions: I can use infusions and cannons, but not the Replicate Magic Item Infusion to maintain the spirit of simplicity. The cannons are, in my mind, acceptable because they aren't summoned by a spell, they are created by you as a class feature, and denying it would be akin to denying the beast master's pet or barbarian's rage. Assuming point buy, no feat, so INT 18.

At 5th level, with the ffree Cannon (which lasts an hour; far, far exceeding either 30 or 20 rounds)

2d8 (shocking grasp) +1d8 (arcane firearm) +2d8 (either DPS cannon). To-hit of 4 (int) +3 (prof) +1 (infusion).

So that's 22.5 DPR single-target, no concentration spells.

If, say, 6 bad guys conveniently group into a cone shape, then that amount increases by 9x5=45 (aka cone damage)

How could I increase that? I'm so glad you asked:
* bless increases to-hit
* Web causes restrained, granting advantage on attacks and disadvantage on fire cannon's Dex save
* kobold has pack tactics, though unlike the Steel Defender or Homunculous its cannon is not really a creature so might not count as ally
* faerie fire grants advantage though, and takes care of those pesky invisible arcane tricksters
* acid splash has higher dice and can hit two bad guys, making the potential base non-cone damage (2d12+1d8)x2 or 35 + 18 (still use fire for two baddies cause duh) for base 53 resourceless, continual damage as long as I have two bad guys beside each other.

All numbers should be adjusted by chance to hit, of course (I missed if there was an assumption on that) but don't forget that Infusion. Also don't forget I have several options for advantage, and not all require a spell slot, though advantage matters not at all for fire cannon or acid splash. It matters a lot lot more for fire bolt and bolt cannon, though.

18 AC with shield, 19 with defence Infusion, and Shield would also be damn strong if this were more than a DPR challenge.

I like this as another straight class, no feats or anything clever way to approach this. Things to note, the infusion bonus doesn't apply to spell save DCs (at least I couldn't find one that did) so your cannon and using acid splash wouldn't get a bonus. Even still just sticking with the simple Acid Splash (which is 1d6 not 1d12 btw) + Cannon route and the +7 equivalent DC you get 25.83 DPR, not using concentration or any tricks but your cannon really.

Frogreaver
2021-06-07, 08:31 PM
Just to hit the Cleric comment from earlier:

Arcana Cleric:
Wis 18
Str or Dex 16 (with some method of having a 1d8 weapon, there are a few different ways to achieve this based off of race)

2 Spirit Guardians lasting 3 rounds and hitting 2 targets:
2 * 3d8 (13.5) * 3 * 2 = 162 * .815 = 132.03

20 rounds of Spiritual Weapon:
20 * .63 * (1d8 + 4 + (1d8 * .086) = 111.9762

Filling up the remaining actions with True Flame Blade:
18 * .63 * (3d8 + 7 + (2d8 * .086) = 241.24716

Add up and divide by 20 and you get a DPR of: 24.262668
If Spirit Guardians lasts 6 rounds you get: 30.864168
9 rounds: 37.465668

If Spirit Guardians lasts the whole 10 minutes and you don't bother to short rest you get to: 40.0563585

For a single level 3 spell slot I don't think anything comes close to Spirit Guardians for damage output even when you're just limited to 3 rounds and 2 targets (that's effectively 18d8 save for half).

EDIT:


I have been assuming DC 15 = +7 for failure chance as that is what the equivalent ability scores work out to. All my numbers change if that is not true.

Unless we are prebuffing - which hasn't really been established then you may lose 3+ rounds of spiritual weapon and 2 rounds of True Flame Blade
Racial benefits are out according to the OP - so no d8 weapon?
What is True Flame Blade?


snip

Some classes like the gloomstalker ranger depends on the number of encounters for their abilities. How many encounters should we consider for his ability?

GeneralVryth
2021-06-07, 08:43 PM
Unless we are prebuffing - which hasn't really been established then you may lose 3+ rounds of spiritual weapon and 2 rounds of True Flame Blade
Racial benefits are out according to the OP - so no d8 weapon?
What is True Flame Blade?

I meant Green-Flame Blade (the cantrip in SCAG and Tasha's). And no pre-buffing is needed for the Cleric build. You can use Spiritual Weapon first round along with a cantrip, Spirit Guardians second round and attack with Spiritual Weapon again. And then GFB until Spirit Guardians expires and you re-casts it. The missing rounds of GFB are already accounted for in the math which is why the 18 starts the GFB section and not 20. So the only real thing is d6 versus d8 weapon, which is worth ~.7 DPR on the rounds you use GFB (which is most).

Looking back I think there is actually a bigger error in my post, the accuracy number for GFB should be .58 and not .63 since it is only +6.

Redoing the numbers you get:

Spirit Guardians:
2 * 3d8 (13.5) * 3 * 2 = 162 * .815 = 132.03

Spiritual Weapon:
20 * .63 * (1d8 + 4 + (1d8 * .086) = 111.9762

Green-Flame Blade
18 * .58 * (1d6 + 2d8 + 7 + (1d6 + 1d8 * .086) = 210.76272

Add up and divide by 20 for: 22.738446 DPR

Personally I don't think assuming a d8 weapon is unreasonable considering the plethora of ways to get one from racial options, if you put that back you get: 23.337846 DPR

Frogreaver
2021-06-07, 08:53 PM
I meant Green-Flame Blade (the cantrip in SCAG and Tasha's). And no pre-buffing is needed for the Cleric build. You can use Spiritual Weapon first round along with a cantrip, Spirit Guardians second round and attack with Spiritual Weapon again. And then GFB until Spirit Guardians expires and you re-casts it. The missing rounds of GFB are already accounted for in the math which is why the 18 starts the GFB section and not 20. So the only real thing is d6 versus d8 weapon, which is worth ~.7 DPR on the rounds you use GFB (which is most).

Looking back I think there is actually a bigger error in my post, the accuracy number for GFB should be .58 and not .63 since it is only +6.

Redoing the numbers you get:

Spirit Guardians:
2 * 3d8 (13.5) * 3 * 2 = 162 * .815 = 132.03

Spiritual Weapon:
20 * .63 * (1d8 + 4 + (1d8 * .086) = 111.9762

Green-Flame Blade
18 * .58 * (1d6 + 2d8 + 7 + (1d6 + 1d8 * .086) = 210.76272

Add up and divide by 20 for: 22.738446 DPR

Personally I don't think assuming a d8 weapon is unreasonable considering the plethora of ways to get one from racial options, if you put that back you get: 23.337846 DPR

Another minor nitpick. Shouldn't Greenflame blade be doing (1d6 + 2d8 + 6 ...)

Also we might want to double check that the OP intended for 5ft AOE's to be able to hit 2 targets.


Just for the sake of comparison basic Fiend Warlock not even trying to be clever just blowing things up at range:

Fiend Warlock
Cha = 18 (or +7 with prof)
Eldritch Invocations: Agonizing Blast...

6 x Fireball is:
6 x 8d6 (28) x 2 = 336
336 * .815 (.63 + (1-.63)x.5) = 273.84

14 Eldritch Blasts for the remainder is:
14 x .63 x (11 + 8 + (11 x .086)) = 175.92372

(273.84 + 175.92372) / 20 = 22.488186
or ~22.5 DPR

Mind you if the AOE targets were 2.5 average that DPR goes up to ~26 and if they were 3 average it would be ~29.25

This character appears to fail the challenge by not getting 17 AC. Would be able to get medium armor feat to still compete but would likely lower damage quite a bit.

borg286
2021-06-07, 09:30 PM
What percent of the time can we assume our target is prone? Let's say we have an ability to prone the target like tripping attack?

pvcarrao
2021-06-07, 09:40 PM
What percent of the time can we assume our target is prone? Let's say we have an ability to prone the target like tripping attack?

If your target is prone I think we can assume it will be prone for one round extra, since getting up is pretty easy. You have to land your attack and the they have to fail the DC tought, so multiply your chane to hit by your spell DC fail chance and you got the chance for target beign prone.




I recently made a spreadsheet for calculating DPR, maybe it can help, it is not pretty but can do the job.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HQfjXgtJupU_OqnQsdESFXA5eiCE6if65a3UFXsu8Qw/edit?usp=sharing

Frogreaver
2021-06-07, 09:42 PM
What percent of the time can we assume our target is prone? Let's say we have an ability to prone the target like tripping attack?

I'm not the OP but my take is that you only get 20 first attacks and on average about 12 of them will land. The naive assumption would then be you are in a position to use it on a first attack 12 times and you can use his bonus table to determine your chance to land - about 60% give or take a little. So you would benefit from the prone of trip attack about 8 times. OP may have different opinion

pvcarrao
2021-06-07, 09:44 PM
One thing I do think is worth pointing out is level 5 versus level 6 punishes a lot of the combat caster character types. Evokers, Bladesingers, Draconic Sorceres, Valor Bards, and Blades Bards are all full caster sub-classes that get a distinct damage buff at level 6. Not to mention the extra 3rd level slot. Level 5 also locks out any kind of multi-classing for melee classes that depend extra attack. I always thought the best levels for comparison were levels 3 (or 4), 6, 10 (or 12), 14 (or 16) for this kind of reason.

For Bladesingers especially things change significantly going from 11.75892 to 16.33338 for their default action (with only a +3 attack modifier and a +3 casting modifier, using a single d8 weapon).

One thing that is interesting that I realize when typing this, Wizards and Sorcerers don't really have a concentration spell that is worth casting versus dropping a blast because of the concentration limit. It would be interesting if con prof increased the concentration limit some along with having advantage on concentration checks. Though I am sure Clerics become really tough to beat in that case.

Yep... that`s another error, level 6 is a lot better for hybrid subclasses. Buy now it is to late to change everything, again. Maybe we start the thing all over again...

Frogreaver
2021-06-07, 09:44 PM
@pvcarrao I'm looking at a greatsword wielding hexblade that casts summon Fey. I normally calc DPR just fine but can't decipher how OP wants crits accounted for and also want confirmation that hexblade's curse lasts 3 rounds only per use.

LudicSavant
2021-06-07, 09:45 PM
Incidentally, these white room DPR challenges tend to greatly underestimate the real world value of spells in my experience.

Some examples of troublesome parameters/assumptions that can lead to very non-representative results in these sorts of white room challenges include:

- Fixed rounds (in real games, the higher your output, the fewer important rounds there are, so burst damage tends to be undervalued by any "fixed round" challenge).

- Flat defenses. (In a real game, versatile characters can target a creature's weakest defense, while less versatile characters face a high defense more often. The more versatile the character, the more likely any given ability they use is going to be used in an 'ideal scenario' for that ability. And vice versa. As such, versatility tends to be undervalued in such challenges, and one-tricks tend to be overvalued).

- Long individual combats (10 rounds is a long time, especially if people are optimizing. This can lead to stuff like 1 minute durations getting overvalued).

- Initiative not mattering (init bonuses provide a meaningful action economy advantage, this just doesn't fit into damage "per round" because it effectively gives you an extra round each time you win initiative. Dexterity builds tend to be undervalued as a result).

- Flat Concentration duration (in real games, varies a lot based on build/tactics).

- No party involvement (an awful lot of effects have additional damage potential from party combos. Anything that knocks prone, stuns, creates a hazard, buffs multiple characters, etc etc).

Hael
2021-06-07, 10:00 PM
I meant Green-Flame Blade (the cantrip in SCAG and Tasha's).

Alternatively you could take booming blade and use the crusher feat (thus guaranteeing the rider). Depends how that is ruled.

pvcarrao
2021-06-07, 10:02 PM
@pvcarrao I'm looking at a greatsword wielding hexblade that casts summon Fey. I normally calc DPR just fine but can't decipher how OP wants crits accounted for and also want confirmation that hexblade's curse lasts 3 rounds only per use.

I am not the king of DPR calculations, actually I am far from it.

Feel free to calculate the best you can. I am using this as a basis for crit dam modifiers:
https://amp.reddit.com/r/dndnext/comments/4i1dff/the_optimists_guide_to_dd_5e_damage_by_class_and/.

And yes, we are account 3 rounds per use for hexblades curse.

Frogreaver
2021-06-07, 10:22 PM
Hexblades Curse
Blade Pact
Warlock
Thirsting Blade
Eldritch Smite
Improved Pact Weapon
Great Sword - Elven Accuracy (Cha)
18 Cha



Damage Baseline (18 Cha + Greatsword + Thirsting Blade)
=11*.63*2 + 7*.05*2 = 14.56 DPR

Improved Pact Weapon
=2*(.05*11 + 1*.63 + .05*12) = +2.46 DPR

Eldritch Smite Base DPR
=6*18/20 = +5.4 DPR

Eldritch Smite Crit DPR
= 3*18/20 = +2.7 DPR (*3 because hexblades curse and prones will nearly double crit rate on around half of attacks)

Eldritch Smite Prone DPR with elven accuracy
= 4*(.97-.68)*12/20 = +0.70 DPR (*5 because can time 3 of the smites for first attack. The other 1 comes from assumption that at least 1 of the crit smites will be on first attack of the turn)

Hexblade Curse DPR
=3*2*3*3*.68 = +1.84 DPR

Total DPR
27.66

Omni-Centrist
2021-06-07, 10:36 PM
Beast Barbarian Rogue
Beast 4 / Rogue 1 Half Elf Wood
18/16/16/8/8/8
Using Double Bladed Scimitar for attacks, you get 3d4+Str*2+d6 for an average of 25 DMG per turn, you also have the benefit of Tail form: d8 extra AC towards one attack of your choice. 17 AC with Revenant Blade feat.

Frogreaver
2021-06-07, 10:38 PM
Beast Barbarian Rogue
Beast 4 / Rogue 1 Half Elf Wood
18/16/16/8/8/8
Using Double Bladed Scimitar for attacks, you get 3d4+Str*2+d6 for an average of 25 DMG per turn, you also have the benefit of Tail form: d8 extra AC towards one attack of your choice. 17 AC with Revenant Blade feat.

I think your str would be forced to be 16 for this as the OP has made clear no additional racial abilities including starting feats. Forgot Revenant blade feat was half feat. Though wouldn't you be getting 3*Str or are you assuming no beast claw attack with the blade? Nevermind, revenant blade doesn't give bonus attack.

Though I am curious, why go rogue instead of going Barbarian 5? 5d4+str*3 would be correct and that seems better?

GeneralVryth
2021-06-07, 10:43 PM
Another minor nitpick. Shouldn't Greenflame blade be doing (1d6 + 2d8 + 6 ...)

Also we might want to double check that the OP intended for 5ft AOE's to be able to hit 2 targets.

This character appears to fail the challenge by not getting 17 AC. Would be able to get medium armor feat to still compete but would likely lower damage quite a bit.

It's +7, remember GFB uses casting stat which is +4 in this case (the Str/Dex is +3, for +7 total). Also, the 17 AC requirement was removed in the later update. Still if you wanted the AC 17 that is easy to do Half-Plate plus a Shield gets you there even without a dex bonus. So the only question is the 5 ft. AOE hitting 2 targets and that is following the rules. I agree it's kind of a perversion but then, I also think Fireball should hit 2.5 or 3 targets, and concentration spells should last longer (at least if you have things like Con prof or Adv. on Concentration).

Finally, the point of my builds so far hasn't been to try and be too clever, but more to show case how close a more standard thing gets.


Alternatively you could take booming blade and use the crusher feat (thus guaranteeing the rider). Depends how that is ruled.

Maybe, I would need to look into Crusher. But personally, like I said above I kind of like seeing how more standard things fare as a point of comparison as well.


EDIT:

And to stick with another simple build

Battle Master Fighter
Dex: 16
Fighting Style: Archery
Feat: Sharpshooter

Using all of the superiority dice to turn misses into hits (I will also a 10 or 12 fixes as well)

46 longbow attacks (2 per turn plus another 6 from 3 action surges):
46 * .43 * (1d8 + 3 + 10 + (1d8 * .086) = 353.80486

Superiority dice turning misses into hits:
12 * 1d8 + 3 + 10 = 210

Add up and divide by 20 for: 28.190243 DPR

If only 10 of 12 misses turn to hits: 26.440243 DPR

Omni-Centrist
2021-06-07, 10:58 PM
I think your str would be forced to be 16 for this as the OP has made clear no additional racial abilities including starting feats. Forgot Revenant blade feat was half feat. Though wouldn't you be getting 3*Str or are you assuming no beast claw attack with the blade? Nevermind, revenant blade doesn't give bonus attack.

Though I am curious, why go rogue instead of going Barbarian 5? 5d4+str*3 would be correct and that seems better?

I like the 4 proficiencies you get from rogue a LOT, and it sets the tone for the class since my headcanon is a Barbarian 6/Assassin 14 split. I also love the idea of Level 6 opening up the 4 attacks per turn with the claws and DBS, 3d4 + 2d6 + 24 for 41 DMG per round with no real downside beside a limited resources.

Frogreaver
2021-06-07, 11:17 PM
EDIT:

And to stick with another simple build

Battle Master Fighter
Dex: 16
Fighting Style: Archery
Feat: Sharpshooter

Using all of the superiority dice to turn misses into hits (I will also a 10 or 12 fixes as well)

46 longbow attacks (2 per turn plus another 6 from 3 action surges):
46 * .43 * (1d8 + 3 + 10 + (1d8 * .086) = 353.80486

Superiority dice turning misses into hits:
12 * 1d8 + 3 + 10 = 210

Add up and divide by 20 for: 28.190243 DPR

If only 10 of 12 misses turn to hits: 26.440243 DPR

On average you won't even be turning 10 of 12 misses to hits.

Example: Perfectly using precision attack when you miss by 1-3. We need to know 4 things:

How many superiority dice we have = 4 per short rest (and yes it matters that we look at this over a short rest period)
The chance we turn a miss by 1-3 to a hit = (1 + 7/8 + 6/8 ) / 3 = .875
The damage per attack = 4.5+3+10=17.5
The distribution of how often we miss by 1-3 in the given number of attacks = BINOM.DIST(X,16,0.15,FALSE), where X is the number of times you miss by 1-3. 16 is because 7 rounds of combat per short rest and 1 action surge makes 16 attacks. .15 because a miss by 1-3 has a .15 chance of occurring.

This weighted average ends up being about +35 Damage per short rest. So about +105 per day. Or +5.26 DPR due to precision attack. Total DPR this way comes to 22.9

We could expand our use case a little and get potentially better results. Going with using on a miss of 1-5 changes the number to +6.54 DPR. But we won't get much closer to the +10.5 DPR your method suggests. Total DPR this way comes to 24.2

GeneralVryth
2021-06-08, 12:04 AM
On average you won't even be turning 10 of 12 misses to hits.

Example: Perfectly using precision attack when you miss by 1-3. We need to know 4 things:

How many superiority dice we have = 4 per short rest (and yes it matters that we look at this over a short rest period)
The chance we turn a miss by 1-3 to a hit = (1 + 7/8 + 6/8 ) / 3 = .875
The damage per attack = 4.5+3+10=17.5
The distribution of how often we miss by 1-3 in the given number of attacks = BINOM.DIST(X,16,0.15,FALSE), where X is the number of times you miss by 1-3. 16 is because 7 rounds of combat per short rest and 1 action surge makes 16 attacks. .15 because a miss by 1-3 has a .15 chance of occurring.

This weighted average ends up being about +35 Damage per short rest. So about +105 per day. Or +5.26 DPR due to precision attack. Total DPR this way comes to 22.9

We could expand our use case a little and get potentially better results. Going with using on a miss of 1-5 changes the number to +6.54 DPR. But we won't get much closer to the +10.5 DPR your method suggests. Total DPR this way comes to 24.2

You have a good point but I think you are overthinking it. In layman's terms you are saying we need enough attacks to on average change 4 per short rest. And if we are only changing when we are 1 to 3 points off, only 15% of attacks while qualify. And 15% of 15 to 16 attacks is certainly not 4. You realistically need to risk changing 25% of all attacks to use all of the dice, or in other words make changes on a 1 to 5 miss. You will fix a hit that misses by 1 to 5 on average 75% of the time. Which means only 9 of the 12 superiority dice get used.

9 of 12 superiority dice working works out to: 25.565243 DPR

Still solid (if not potentially OP) for a straightforward build.

Frogreaver
2021-06-08, 12:40 AM
You have a good point but I think you are overthinking it. In layman's terms you are saying we need enough attacks to on average change 4 per short rest. And if we are only changing when we are 1 to 3 points off, only 15% of attacks while qualify. And 15% of 15 to 16 attacks is certainly not 4. You realistically need to risk changing 25% of all attacks to use all of the dice, or in other words make changes on a 1 to 5 miss. You will fix a hit that misses by 1 to 5 on average 75% of the time. Which means only 9 of the 12 superiority dice get used.

9 of 12 superiority dice working works out to: 25.565243 DPR

Still solid (if not potentially OP) for a straightforward build.

First of all, 1 to 6 actually comes out slightly better than 1-5 ;)

More importantly though, you are only fixing part of the issue I'm describing. You've managed to better account for your conversion rate per dice used by realizing as you describe above that you're not making anywhere near enough attacks to use all your dice without expanding the range of the miss you will use them on. However, even after expanding that range there's still a significant chance you go through that whole short rest period without being able to use all your dice

For the 1-5 Case

Using no dice = 1%
Only using 1 dice = 5.3%
Only using 2 dice = 13.3%
Only using 3 dice = 20.8%
Only using 4 dice = 59.6%

This translates into an average dice usage rate of 3.32/4 per short rest = 83.1%

That is, by employing this specific strategy you will on average use about 3.32 of your 4 dice. Then, of the dice you use, you will only convert 75% of those to hits.

The DPR for this strategy comes out to the 24.2 that I posted earlier. The 25.56 you list above is too high.

Essentially precision attack becomes an optimization style problem, where one variable increases as the other decreases, leaving you with a relative maximum to find.

GeneralVryth
2021-06-08, 02:45 AM
First of all, 1 to 6 actually comes out slightly better than 1-5 ;)

More importantly though, you are only fixing part of the issue I'm describing. You've managed to better account for your conversion rate per dice used by realizing as you describe above that you're not making anywhere near enough attacks to use all your dice without expanding the range of the miss you will use them on. However, even after expanding that range there's still a significant chance you go through that whole short rest period without being able to use all your dice

For the 1-5 Case

Using no dice = 1%
Only using 1 dice = 5.3%
Only using 2 dice = 13.3%
Only using 3 dice = 20.8%
Only using 4 dice = 59.6%

This translates into an average dice usage rate of 3.32/4 per short rest = 83.1%

That is, by employing this specific strategy you will on average use about 3.32 of your 4 dice. Then, of the dice you use, you will only convert 75% of those to hits.

The DPR for this strategy comes out to the 24.2 that I posted earlier. The 25.56 you list above is too high.

Essentially precision attack becomes an optimization style problem, where one variable increases as the other decreases, leaving you with a relative maximum to find.

Ah but you are assuming that the short rests need to be equally spaced, so you are doing a distribution to calculate the odds you will be able to use all 4 in a specific time period. For the sharpshooter archer, there is no reason to short rest until you have used all of your superiority dice. So you need to be looking at the usage over the day, and while you could do a distribution to calculate that, everything up until now has been averages. If you go by the averages you end up closer to the 25.56 number (which is still technically a little high because you don't have a full 48 attacks over the course of the day, but it's closer to the average case you would get if you rolled it out).

Gignere
2021-06-08, 05:58 AM
Ah but you are assuming that the short rests need to be equally spaced, so you are doing a distribution to calculate the odds you will be able to use all 4 in a specific time period. For the sharpshooter archer, there is no reason to short rest until you have used all of your superiority dice. So you need to be looking at the usage over the day, and while you could do a distribution to calculate that, everything up until now has been averages. If you go by the averages you end up closer to the 25.56 number (which is still technically a little high because you don't have a full 48 attacks over the course of the day, but it's closer to the average case you would get if you rolled it out).

You can also try and model quick toss maneuver along with precise for a BM archer. So if you don’t have enough misses to turn into hits you can also get a bonus action toss darts so sharpshooter and archery style both applies and they are finesse.

Frogreaver
2021-06-08, 07:57 AM
You can also try and model quick toss maneuver along with precise for a BM archer. So if you don’t have enough misses to turn into hits you can also get a bonus action toss darts so sharpshooter and archery style both applies and they are finesse.

It's more than misses to turn into hits at that point though. The best strategy toward trying to tie in other maneuvers is going to be to check how many maneuver dice you have left and use another maneuver on the last few attacks if they hit. This will increase dice usage a little without impacting precision attack, but it still leaves a significant chance for dice to be left on the table (those last few dice miss by more than precision attack would help with). That is, the nature of maximizing DPR with precision attack leads us to strategies that leave dice on the table at the end of the rest period.


Ah but you are assuming that the short rests need to be equally spaced, so you are doing a distribution to calculate the odds you will be able to use all 4 in a specific time period.

Seemed to me the consensus up till now has been that we should space the short rests out equally.

I think you are right that unevenly spacing the short rests can increase dice usage - though not raise it to 100%. I don't see a way to mathematically model this though.


For the sharpshooter archer, there is no reason to short rest until you have used all of your superiority dice.

You'll be pushing back the unused dice to the last rest period. This still leads to unused dice. (Though potentially a bit less)


So you need to be looking at the usage over the day, and while you could do a distribution to calculate that, everything up until now has been averages. If you go by the averages you end up closer to the 25.56 number (which is still technically a little high because you don't have a full 48 attacks over the course of the day, but it's closer to the average case you would get if you rolled it out).

There are going to be unused superiority dice when you use any selective superiority dice strategy. Your method ignores any unused superiority dice. Thus, it is an overestimate of the DPR.

Mitchellnotes
2021-06-08, 09:01 AM
I think your scenario is going to fundamentally be flawed based on your setup. You are designing a specific scenario that focuses on at will damage, then nerfing the classes that would be best suited to it. I'm seeing nerfs to druid summons, rogue sneak attack, and warlock hexing. If you wanted to check at will/attack damage, id focus on that

You may be better off identifying 3 iconic monsters and seeing how quickly they can go down. A hexblade/evoker or sorc/lock or paladin may not have they staying power for 30 rounds, but they may not need to given their ability to nova

nathanv
2021-06-08, 10:38 AM
Just for the sake of comparison basic Fiend Warlock not even trying to be clever just blowing things up at range:

This sounded like a good base Warlock for testing a few things out. Fireball*6 is smart.

Warlock, Str 16 Cha 16, Fiend, Pact of Blade, Improved Pact Weapon, Polearm Master, Green Flame Blade, Glaive (or whatever). DC 14, attack +7, weapon damage D10+4 (=9.5). I gave full adjacent target damage to GFB due to AOE rules.

6*Fireball = 265.44
14*Green Flame Blade = 241.36
14*Bonus Action Attack = 60.34

DPR 28.357. Falls behind barbarian, as it should, but very respectable.

Green Flame Blade outperformed Thirsting Blade by a smidgeon. Shillelagh quarterstaff with Cha 18, Str 8 should be about the same, were that legal (it would be with VH feat). GWF fell behind by a bit, but would outperform PAM at lower AC or with reliable advantage (devil's sight + darkness; familiar help action.)

Good to know. Thirsting blade can come into its own later, with more invocations and better per-hit effects (incl. an all-day hex, not considered for this analysis where it'd only last three turns anyways.) The tiny price in dps for tome+shillelagh is certainly worth the SAD and the invocation saved. EB is still generally preferable because of ranged use + repelling blast and the feat saved. It seems that optimized warlock damage has a pretty tight spread.

If this were to go to lvl 6, I think you'd start to see some good bladesinger builds, with gfb + extra attack + whatever bonus actions they could scrounge up. Or, at 7, an eldritch knight build for BA GFB, which wouldn't need PAM. Under different testing circumstances, a GFB arcane trickster w/ familiar is pretty great at level 5.

Dork_Forge
2021-06-08, 11:04 AM
This sounded like a good base Warlock for testing a few things out. Fireball*6 is smart.

Warlock, Str 16 Cha 16, Fiend, Pact of Blade, Improved Pact Weapon, Polearm Master, Green Flame Blade, Glaive (or whatever). DC 14, attack +7, weapon damage D10+4 (=9.5). I gave full adjacent target damage to GFB due to AOE rules.

6*Fireball = 265.44
14*Green Flame Blade = 241.36
14*Bonus Action Attack = 60.34

DPR 28.357. Falls behind barbarian, as it should, but very respectable.

Green Flame Blade outperformed Thirsting Blade by a smidgeon. Shillelagh quarterstaff with Cha 18, Str 8 should be about the same, were that legal (it would be with VH feat). GWF fell behind by a bit, but would outperform PAM at lower AC or with reliable advantage (devil's sight + darkness; familiar help action.)

Good to know. Thirsting blade can come into its own later, with more invocations and better per-hit effects (incl. an all-day hex, not considered for this analysis where it'd only last three turns anyways.) The tiny price in dps for tome+shillelagh is certainly worth the SAD and the invocation saved. EB is still generally preferable because of ranged use + repelling blast and the feat saved. It seems that optimized warlock damage has a pretty tight spread.

If this were to go to lvl 6, I think you'd start to see some good bladesinger builds, with gfb + extra attack + whatever bonus actions they could scrounge up. Or, at 7, an eldritch knight build for BA GFB, which wouldn't need PAM. Under different testing circumstances, a GFB arcane trickster w/ familiar is pretty great at level 5.

GFB/BB are not compatible with PAM as the PAM bonus attack require the attack action.

nathanv
2021-06-08, 12:31 PM
GFB/BB are not compatible with PAM as the PAM bonus attack require the attack action.

Doh! Then I guess GWF would beat out PAM, and require recomputation with GFB vs TB.

GeneralVryth
2021-06-08, 12:49 PM
Seemed to me the consensus up till now has been that we should space the short rests out equally.

I think you are right that unevenly spacing the short rests can increase dice usage - though not raise it to 100%. I don't see a way to mathematically model this though.

You'll be pushing back the unused dice to the last rest period. This still leads to unused dice. (Though potentially a bit less)

There are going to be unused superiority dice when you use any selective superiority dice strategy. Your method ignores any unused superiority dice. Thus, it is an overestimate of the DPR.

I went back to check the short rest thing just to be sure. Some classes can theoretically benefit from fewer short rests, the basic Arcana Cleric I posted earlier doesn't need a short rest, and would be hurt by it if the Spirit Guardians could last for all 20 rounds.

I don't have a good way to model it either, my instinct says the average approach I am using would get close though. You could use monte carlo to see if I am right though (though the odd hit chances and crit chances in the base post make this more difficult).

You are right about selective use potentially creating unused dice, that is why I mentioned 46 attacks causing the numbers to be a little off. By pure average you will have half a superiority unused while sticking to the 1 to 5 miss range for attacks. Which you could adjust the DPR to 25.127743 to account for that half a die. Ultimately it doesn't matter that much, as it's not going to be the best. It's a point of measure for more standard builds, that's also why I have offered up ranged of possibilities for things that could easily be different from the scenario and have a drastic impact on the build (Spirit Guardians lasting longer, Fireballs hitting more targets etc...).

Frogreaver
2021-06-08, 10:18 PM
Level 5 Wizard - 16 str, 18 cha (after level 4 ASI)

Use Arcane Recovery to generate a level 3 spell slot.
Use Dragon's Breath with all your level 2 and level 3 slots on your familiar.
Use Burning Hands with your level 1 slots.
Use Greenflame blade with a quarterstaff

Burning Hands = (.081*10.5*2)*4 = 68.04
Greenflame Blade = [.058*[(4.5+3+4.5) + (4.5+4)] + .05*(4.5+4.5)]*16 = 197.44
Level 2 Dragons Breath = .081*(10.5*2*3)*3 =153.09
Level 3 Dragons Breath = .081*(10.5*2*3)*3 =204.12

Total Damage = 622.69
DPR = 622.69/20 = 31.13

Asisreo1
2021-06-09, 07:28 AM
Still a bit confused...if you have a single-target effect that does damage on-hit but half on a successful save, how would you compute this using your model?

Damage dice*(Chance to fail)+Damage/2 * (1-chance to fail)?

Frogreaver
2021-06-09, 08:38 AM
Still a bit confused...if you have a single-target effect that does damage on-hit but half on a successful save, how would you compute this using your model?

Damage dice*(Chance to fail)+Damage/2 * (1-chance to fail)?

Normally it is:

Damage*(chance to hit) + damage*(chance to fail)/2

GeneralVryth
2021-06-09, 08:50 AM
Normally it is:

Damage*(chance to hit) + damage*(chance to fail)/2

I have been using: damage * ([chance to hit] + .5*(1-[chance to hit]))

That way I can re-use the latter term everywhere where half damage is done with the same modifier.

carkl3000
2021-06-09, 09:40 AM
With a build like Arcana Cleric 1/spore druid 4 w/ war caster, how would one account for a hit with Shillelagh+ Booming Blade (2d8+4) followed by ramming with Flaming sphere (2/3d6)? Flaming Sphere will remain adjacent to the target and do an additional 2/3d6 on failed save if the target stays put or Booming blade's extra 2d8 will trigger if target chooses to move.

Also thinking flaming sphere is likely to stay active longer than 3 rounds with war caster feat.

EDIT: Vhuman, war caster, Wis ASI, studded leather and shield

With 6 uses of symbiotic entity over 20 combat rounds, is it safe to say that the short rest damage is always on?

That's (2d8+2d4+1d6)*0.63 = 13.5 dpr all the time.

Long rest damage will be 3 level 2 flaming spheres and 2 level 3 flaming spheres. Not including any AoE or "pick your poison" FS or BB damage that's an additional 103 damage per day if FS is up for 3 rounds per casting. Or 137 if we say that war caster extends the concentration to 4 rounds per casting. DPR is ~18.5-20.

It just so happens that the expected damage from level 2 FS and from the BB rider are both about 5.7. So if I add the catch 22 damage over 15 rounds that adds another ~85 per day or if FS concentration lasts all 20 rounds (4 rounds per cast), that's 114 more per day. DPR: ~22.5-26

If I include one additional target in the FS AoE per round that it's up that's an additional 103 damage per day assuming 3 rounds per cast or 137 if 4 rounds per cast. DPR: ~27-32.5.

I don't know if all of that is valid, but it seems right to me? I'm happy to be corrected.

Asisreo1
2021-06-09, 02:17 PM
Normally it is:

Damage*(chance to hit) + damage*(chance to fail)/2


I have been using: damage * ([chance to hit] + .5*(1-[chance to hit]))

That way I can re-use the latter term everywhere where half damage is done with the same modifier.
Yeah, to be clear "chance to fail" in my vernacular is the chance that the target fails their save. Which is equivalent to "chance to hit." "Chance to succeed" is merely the opposite of "chance to fail" and is equal to 1-"Chance to fail" in decimal form or 100%-%chance to fail in percent form.

Okay, Beastmaster Ranger (Giant Poisonous Snake), TWF, 18 dex, 15 Wis, half-plate, dual-shortswords.

No_resource_dpr: Ranger attacks twice (TWF) GPS attacks once.

[2*(1d6+4+.086*1d6)*.63]+[(1d4+6+.086*1d4)*.73+(3d6*.43)+(3d6/2*.57)] = 23.698

Long_rest_dpr: 4 castings of Hunter's Mark (12 round), afterwards 2 castings of 2nd-level Hail of Thorns (dagger).

(12*([2*(2d6+4+.086*2d6)*.63]+[(1d4+6+0.86*1d6)*.73+(3d6*.43)+(3d6/2*.57)])+2*([2*(1d6+4+.086*1d6+(2*2d10*.53)+(2*2d10/2*.47))]+[(3d6*.43)+(3d6/2*.57)]))/20 = 23.13

Total DPR = 46.82

I think I did this right but can someone double check...

Chugger
2021-06-12, 01:57 AM
30 rounds of combat, but how many fights? You imply 3 10 round fights per day, but you don't say that. What if we have 10 3 round fights w/ a significant delay in between?

At this point, the barbarian runs out of rages very, very quickly. The barbarian, without rage, is not going to win.

A va human Battlemaster Fighter w/ GWM and PAM could do very well. (1d10 +3 +10)x2 and 1d4+3 +10 = 37 + 15.5 = 42.5 dpr.

That -5 to hit is a problem, but with Precision this fighter can potentially turn 24 misses into hits. Much depends on what we're fighting - lots of high AC monsters means the fighter probably choses not to use the GWM option, so no +10. Lots of low and medium low AC monsters, and this fighter is tearing them up.

A Hexblade using darkness and Devil's sight could get advantage in many of these fights and would also have great damage output - maybe better.