Craziest Idea Mafia

[Unavenger]

Current Phase: END

The Town and the Survivor have won the game!


Welcome to the Crazier Idea mafia, which is my take on the Great/Greater/Greatest idea mafia games. If you don't know how it works, read on! Changes from Crazier Idea and clarifications that weren't in the previous original post but ended up in the game are underlined.

The Basics of Mafia

Every player is part of one of the game's factions: usually either a member of the town (who are a large faction unaware of who are town and who are mafia) or the mafia (who are a small faction, but are aware of the other members of the mafia, can communicate with each other, and can remove one target from the game each night). The game cycles through days and nights, and each day, all of the players in the game vote between them for one player to be removed from the game. The game ends when only one faction remains, or nothing can prevent this from happening.

In case of a tie, the player who was the first to reach at least that vote total for the last time is executed*. You may vote for No Execute, which is counted the same way as a player vote, or you may choose not to vote at all. Your latest vote that is not crossed out will be used to determine your vote.

*For example, if a player reaches 3 votes, then their opponent reaches 3 votes, then the first player drops to 2 votes, then the first player goes back up to 3 votes, the second player is executed because the last time the first player reached 3 votes is later than the last time the second player did. However, if the first player went up to 4 instead of down to 2, then went back to 3, they would be executed instead.

The Craziest Idea

You will be dealt three cards. Each of those cards will have a power, and a faction. You must choose one of the three cards and gain that power, then choose a second card and gain that faction. For example, if you draw "Town Killing", "Mafia Investigative", and "Alien Universal Backup", you could choose Killing from the first card, mafia from the second card and discard the card saying "Alien Universal Backup."

Note: Discarded cards, and only discarded cards, are public. All players will get information like this:

"Unavenger discarded Alien Universal Backup".

If by some miracle one faction starts with control of the game (which, in practice, means that the entire play group picked town or up to one survivor), all cards are reshuffled and picks start again. No cards are revealed. This is very rare.

Factions

If there are fewer than 10 players, there will be two factions, the town and the mafia. If there are 10 or more players, alien cards will be added to the deck. If there are 14 or more players, werewolf cards will be added to the deck. If there are 18 or more players, cultist cards will be added to the deck.

The town are your bog-standard town. You're more likely to have lots of allies as town, but you don't get any special abilities.
The mafia and the werewolves are both ordinary mafia-style factions. Each one has factional chat. Once per night, any one member of the Mafia and any one member of the Werewolves can choose one target and kill that target.
The aliens don't have a nightkill, but do get a factional chat. Any non-killing role is stronger on an alien than it is on any other faction.
The cult have a factional conversion. Once per night, any one member of the cult can choose a target to use their conversion ability on. Any time the cult use their ability on a member of the town, that player joins the cult. Any time the cult use their ability on anyone else, the cult is informed of the faction (but not the role) of the target.

Factional chats allow members of a faction with one to communicate at night, while aliens can communicate in their faction chats at any time.

There is also one Survivor card and one Serial Killer card thrown into the mix. The survivor wins if they last to the end of the day, and the Serial Killer acts as a mafia of one. If you were dealt, but didn't pick, one of those roles, you know none are in the game! Both the Survivor and the Serial Killer automatically block all kills at night.

The Death Flip

To clarify how this works, because it wasn't spelled out in the opening post in previous editions, whenever a player dies, their cause of death will be spelled out, as well as their original role, and the role they died as. However, the cards that made up that role are not shown. For example, if I picked the Mafia Strongman off cards with "Town Killing" and "Mafia Investigative" on it, and I was executed, the role reveal would show:

Unavenger died today. They were executed. Unavenger's role was Mafia Strongman.

Someone who started as a town vigilante but was killed by the other Town Vigilante and a Mafia Spy after joining the Cult would show a result like:

Unavenger was brutally murdered today. They were shot with a pistol and stabbed with a knife. Unavenger's role was Town Vigilante but they died as a Cult Fanatic.

Each death message is made up as follows:

[Name] [death type] [phase]. [Pronoun] [was/were] [causes of death]. [Name]'[s] role was [starting role][message tail].

Where:

Name is the username of the player,
Death type is "died" if the player was killed in one way, "was brutally murdered" if they died in two ways, "was torn to pieces" if they died in three ways and "was utterly annihilated" if they died in at least four ways,
Phase is "today" if the player died during the day, presumably because they were executed, and "tonight" if they died during the night, presumably because they weren't,
Pronoun is the first-person pronoun the player used at the time of the player's death, to the best of my knowledge,
Was/Were is "were" if the player uses they pronouns and "was" otherwise,
Causes of Death is each of the causes that the player suffered in order, separated by ", " except for the last two which are separated by " and ". In order, they are shot with a pistol, beaten to death with a tactical flashlight, stabbed with a knife, set on fire, clawed to death, hacked to death with an axe, and shot with a blaster. If multiple vigilantes from one faction kill the same person, they are reported as "shot with [two/three/four/etc.] different [pistols/blasters]".
S is "" if the name already ends with an s or "s" otherwise,
Starting role is whatever faction and role the player started as, after solo faction member Universal Backup switches are resolved at the start of the game,
Message tail is "" if the player hasn't changed factions or roles. Otherwise, it's " but " followed by [pronoun] followed by " died as a " followed by the role that the player was they died.

Abilities

The ability on your card may change depending on the faction, so they are grouped under headings here. For example, if your faction is "Town" and your role is listed as "Killing", then you gain the town's killing role, "Vigilante."

If you are a Survivor you gain the listed town ability, and if you are a werewolf or a serial killer you gain the listed mafia ability.

Killing

Town or Alien Vigilante: Once per night, you can choose one target and kill that target.

Mafia Strongman: When you deliberately perform the factional kill, it can't be blocked.

Cult Fanatic: When you perform the factional conversion, if you target a member of the mafia, a werewolf or an alien, the target is killed.

Investigative

Town Seer: Once per night, you can choose one target. You learn that target's FACTION.

Mafia or Cult Spy: Once per night, you can choose one target. You learn that target's ROLE TYPE.

Alien Researcher: Once per night, you can choose one target. You learn that target's FACTION and ROLE.

Protective

Town, Mafia or Cult Doctor: Once per night, you can choose a target. You block all night kills targeting that player the same night. You cannot target yourself twice consecutively.

Alien Protector: Once per night, you can choose a target. You block everything targeting that player the same night. You cannot target yourself twice consecutively.

Roleblocking

Town, Mafia or Cult Roleblocker: Once per night, you can choose a target. That player's ability is blocked tonight. If they attempt to gather information, they will receive NO RESULT.

Alien Mindslaver: Once per night, you can choose a target. That player's ability is blocked this night. You may activate their personal ability, or their factional ability if they have no personal ability, by attempting to choose another player. If you choose a valid target for their ability, you send your target to visit the new player. They use their ability on the other target, but you, not they, get any information from that ability except the cult's warning message that they cannot convert non-town members. If you target the Strongman, their chosen kill is Strong but the kill you send them to make is not Strong. If you target the Fanatic, their conversion IS Fanatical.

Town Vigilante: The second player will be reported as shot with a pistol as though the vigilante had attacked them deliberately.
Survivor Vigilante: The second player will be reported as beaten to death with a tactical flashlight as though the vigilante had attacked them deliberately.
Alien Vigilante: The second player will be reported as shot with a blaster as though the vigilante had attacked them deliberately.
Mafia Strongman: The original kill is strong, but your version of the kill is not. The second player will be reported as stabbed as though the strongman had attacked them deliberately.
Werewolf Strongman: The original kill is strong, but your version of the kill is not. The second player will be reported as clawed to death as though the strongman had attacked them deliberately.
Serial Killer Strongman: The original kill is strong, but your version of the kill is not. The second player will be reported as hacked to death with an axe as though the strongman had attacked them deliberately.
Cult Fanatic: The conversion will convert players to the cult, not the aliens, if successful. If the second player is a member of a non-town faction, the cult, not you, will be told that they cannot convert members of that faction, and the dead player will be reported as set on fire as though the fanatic had attacked them deliberately.

Any investigative: You will be told the normal information and the investigative player will be told they recieved no result.

Any protective: The second player is protected.

Town, Survivor, Mafia, Werewolf, Serial Killer or Cult Roleblocker: The second player is roleblocked. If you end up in a blocking circle (For a simple version, A mindslaves B to block C, while B was trying to roleblock A) then you succeed at mindslaving the target if there's an even number of players in the bloking circle and fail if there's an odd number (because for the odd-number version, there's no order you can resolve the role blocks where they actually make sense, so we just assume everyone's blocked).

Alien Mindslaver: The second part of the ability fails because you can't pick the additional targets for it. Your target is still roleblocked.

Any Tracking: You are only ever considered to have targeted the person you picked first, and if you redirect their ability, they are considered to have targeted the person you picked second. If you target a tracking role, you get the information they would get from looking at the second target, and they get no result.

Any JOAT: The second part of the ability succeeds if and only if the JOAT only has one ability type left, because you can't pick which of their abilities to use.

Any manipulative: The second part of the ability will always fail, because you would need to pick another target for the gossip or additional information for a framer or psychotrooper.

Town Friendly Neighbour: The second player will get the confirmation that the first player, not you, are the Friendly Neighbour.
Any other communicative: The second part of the ability will always fail, because you would need to pick the message to be sent and the ability doesn't pick targets in the normal fashion.

Town or Alien Universal Backup: The entire ability will do nothing.
Mafia Universal Backup: You will copy the factional ability. The second player will be reported as stabbed as though the universal backup had attacked them deliberately.
Werewolf Universal Backup: You will copy the factional ability. The second player will be reported as clawed to death as though the universal backup had attacked them deliberately.
Cult Universal Backup: You will copy the factional ability. The conversion will convert players to the cult, not the aliens, if successful. If the second player is a member of a non-town faction, the cult, not you, will be told that they cannot convert members of that faction.
Survivor or Serial Killer Universal Backup: These roles should be swapped out by the time the game starts, so you shouldn't ever be able to target one.

Tracking

Town Watcher: Once per night, you can choose a target. You learn WHO TARGETED that player.

Mafia Tracker: Once per night, you can choose a target. You learn WHO WAS TARGETED BY that player.

Cult Stalker: Once per night, you can choose a target. You learn WHAT ACTIONS WERE TARGETED AT that player.

Alien Overseer: Once per night, you can choose a target. You learn WHO DID WHAT TO that player and WHO WAS TARGETED BY that player, but NOT WHAT THAT PLAYER DID.

(Suppose person A heals person B, and person B roleblocks person C. The following are the investigative results on B:

Watcher: A targeted B.
Tracker: B targeted C.
Stalker: B was healed.
Overseer: A healed B, and B targeted C.)

Jack of All Trades

Town, Mafia, Cult or Alien JOAT: You may use your faction's Investigative, Protective, Roleblocking and Tracking powers once each ever.

Manipulative

Town Gossip: Once per night, you can target a player, then choose a non-alien Investigative or Tracking role and a second player. You cannot choose yourself for either player. The first player gains the information they would have gained from using that ability on the second player.

Mafia or Cult Framer: Once per night, you can target a player and make up whatever information you like about them. That information appears true if they are seen, spied, researched, watched, tracked, stalked or overseen that night.

Alien Psychotrooper: Once per night, you can target a player and make up whatever information you like about them. That information appears true if they are seen, spied, researched, watched, tracked, stalked or overseen that night. Once per game, at night, you can instead choose any number of players and make up whatever information you like about them.

Communicative

Town Friendly Neighbour: Once per night, you can choose a target. They recieve confirmation from me that you are a friendly neighbour, though not whether you are a member of the town or a survivor.

Mafia Informant: You can choose a message to attach to the factional kill when a member of your faction, including you, performs it. The message is posted publically if the kill is successful, but if the kill is blocked for any reason the message is posted to the player who intercepted the kill, whether they're a doctor, roleblocker or survivor, unless you are also role blocked. The message is anonymous by default but you can put your name in the message itself.

Cult Preacher: You can choose a message to attach to the factional recruitment when a member of your faction, including you, performs it. The message is posted publically if the recruitment is successful, but if the recruitment is blocked for any reason the message is posted to the player who intercepted the recruitment, whether they're a roleblocker or just a non-town faction member, unless you are also role blocked. If the target is killed by the conversion (because of a Cult Fanatic), the message goes to their faction. The message is anonymous by default but you can put your name in the message itself.

Alien Telepath: You can choose a message to send to a player of your choice, or display publicly, each night. The message is anonymous by default but you can put your name in the message itself.

Universal Backup

Town, Mafia, Cult or Alien Universal Backup: The first time ever that a member of your faction dies, you gain their role. If you are the only member of your faction, you immediately gain the role type listed on your discarded card instead.

Players So Far
AvatarVecna
Valmark
Bathatcat
Snowblaze
CaomhinTheCape
Book Wombat
Elenna
Xihirli
totadileplayz
rogue_alchemist
MornShine
gac3
bladescape
Aventine
JeenLeen
EmmyNecromancer
Rogan
flat_footed
Apogee1
Caerulea
Captain Cap

Players Alive

JeenLeen, Survivor Vigilante.
EmmyNecromancer, Town Jack of All Trades.

Players Dead

flat_footed, Alien Overseer, executed Day 1.
AvatarVecna, Mafia Strongman, shot with a blaster Night 1.
CaoimhinTheCape, Town Seer, clawed to death Night 1.
gac3, Alien Jack of All Trades, stabbed with a knife Night 1.
Captain Cap, Werewolf Jack of All Trades, beaten to death with a tactical flashlight and set on fire Night 1.
Valmark, Alien Psychotrooper, executed Day 2.
MornShine, Werewolf Roleblocker, hacked to death with an axe Night 2.
bladescape, Mafia Jack of All Trades, shot with a pistol and beaten to death with a tactical flashlight Night 2.
Batcathat, Cult Fanatic, executed Day 3.
Book Wombat, Town Seer, clawed to death Night 3.
Xihirli, Town Gossip, shot with a blaster Night 3.
Rogan, Werewolf Roleblocker, shot with a pistol Night 3.
Snowblaze, Serial Killer Spy, executed Day 4.
totadileplayz, Town Doctor, shot with a blaster Night 4.
rogue_alchemist, Town Seer, clawed to death Night 4.
Caerulea, Alien Researcher, shot with a pistol Night 4.
Elenna, Werewolf Doctor, executed Day 5.
Aventine, Town Vigilante, shot with a blaster Night 5.
Apogee1, Alien Vigilante, shot with a pistol and beaten to death with a tactical flashlight Night 5.

Setup Phase Start

This phase will end at 18:30 BST on 07/07/2021. (This may be delayed by a few minutes; bear with me.)

[Unavenger]

AvatarVecna discarded Town Tracking.
Valmark discarded Town Jack of All Trades.
Bathatcat discarded Werewolf Killing.
Snowblaze discarded Town Roleblocking.
CaoimhinTheCape discarded Town Jack of All Trades.
Book Wombat discarded Town Tracking.
Elenna discarded Cult Investigative.
Xihirli discarded Town Killing.
totadileplayz discarded Alien Communicative.
rogue_alchemist discarded Cult Tracking.
MornShine discarded Mafia Manipulative.
gac3 discarded Mafia Protective.
bladescape discarded Alien Investigative.
Aventine discarded Town Universal Backup.
JeenLeen discarded Town Roleblocking.
EmmyNecromancer discarded Mafia Roleblocking.
Rogan discarded Town Jack of All Trades.
flat_footed discarded Werewolf Protective.
Apogee1 discarded Town Protective.
Caerulea discarded Town Communicative.
Captain Cap discarded Town Protective.

Your faction chats will be up in a few minutes.

- - - Updated - - -

DAY 1 START

This phase will end at 19:00 BST, 09/07/2021.

[Rogan]

bladescape discarded Alien Investigative.

Your faction chats will be up in a few minutes. Please don't start posting until 19:00 GMT while I set these up. Sorry I keep pushing this back, real life is happening right now.

I vote for Blades.
He discarded Investigative. What kind of townie throws away the chance to be the seer?

I also deduct that Unavenger is the Deutsche Bahn (German railway). They have a habit of being late and changing the estimated time of arrival multiple times. (The train will be five minutes to late. *5min later* The train will be ten minutes to late. ETC. )

[rogue_alchemist]

I vote for Blades.
He discarded Investigative. What kind of townie throws away the chance to be the seer?

I also deduct that Unavenger is the Deutsche Bahn (German railway). They have a habit of being late and changing the estimated time of arrival multiple times. (The train will be five minutes to late. *5min later* The train will be ten minutes to late. ETC. )

FOS on everyone who discarded a town faction card. Especially Rogan because everyone knows you can set your watch by how punctual the Deutsche Bahn is! jajaja

[Unavenger]

I vote for Blades.
He discarded Investigative. What kind of townie throws away the chance to be the seer?

I also deduct that Unavenger is the Deutsche Bahn (German railway). They have a habit of being late and changing the estimated time of arrival multiple times. (The train will be five minutes to late. *5min later* The train will be ten minutes to late. ETC. )

Recently, a tree fell on the railway near where a friend was trying to get to another town, and the train was consistently expected to arrive nine minutes after the current time, despite the improbability of that actually happening at this point.

At least it was an advance on the 07:39, which had been slated to arrive at 7:40 well into the 8:xx hours.

So don't imagine that Germany is the only country with problems. :smallwink:

Much like a train, I was delayed by unfortunate unforseen and unavoidable circumstances. Apologies.

[Rogan]

FOS on everyone who discarded a town faction card. Especially Rogan because everyone knows you can set your watch by how punctual the Deutsche Bahn is! jajaja



So don't imagine that Germany is the only country with problems. :smallwink:

Much like a train, I was delayed by unfortunate unforseen and unavoidable circumstances. Apologies.

See rogue? The narrator agrees that the DB has problems. Your point against me is therefore invalid.

However, my own deduction was not 100% correct either. Oh well...

- - - Updated - - -

And don't worry about the delay.

[AvatarVecna]

Going out on a limb here, but I'm gonna vote Xihirli for discarding a killing role. Something's fishy...

[JeenLeen]

From the last game, it became helpful to know what card distribution was somewhat in play. That is, how many Mafia, Cult, and Alien cards--that helped the Town figure out which factions were active and potentially how many members they had.
So, for anyone who is about to die, I recommend you say what cards you were dealt. Yeah, we probably won't trust you if you flip a baddie faction, but if you are Town and want to help the Town (or help the other factions kill each other?), then sharing is probably helpful.

Speculation on card distribution
Last game, it was possible (if... I think rare) that someone could get 2 'baddie' factions, so merely discarding Werewolf, Alien, Mafia, or Cult doesn't gurantee townie. It was also that some people got 3 Town cards and thus were forced to be Town (if my memory is right, that was based on the first game having only 1 townie, as folk mostly picked 'more fun' factions.)
So, while discarding a Town card doesn't mean anything for a given person, I think that it's more probable that someone who discarded a Town card is actually a baddie. So I'm voting for one of them: Apogee1.

HOWEVER, it is also important to note that Unavenger has learned things from each iteration of this game and presumably changed the card distribution based on that. So my reasoning above is inherently flawed. However, it's not nothing, and that's better than one usually has for a D1 initial vote.

21 players, right?
4 baddie factions, 2 neutrals, and some forced town. For balance, I reckon there's the same (or +/- 1 of the same number) of cards in play for each baddie faction. So 4*X + 2 < 21, where X is the number of baddie cards in play.
So I'm guessing 4 players max for each baddie faction. It could be 5 for some, especially if someone was dealt two baddie cards, but such seems... well, unknowable at this stage and not usable speculation. So I'll assume 4.
That's 4*4 + 2 < 21
18 < 21
So at minimum (21-18=3) 3 townies. Likely more, but at least 3.

We have 3 Mafia discards.
We have 2 Werewolf discards.
We have 2 Cult discards.
We have 2 Alien discards.
This makes me speculate that, at minimum, we have 1 Mafia, 2 werewolves, 2 Cult, and 2 Aliens. It could be less, but that seems a safe 'minimum' to set for evaluating risks.
Also makes me speculate that it's not really a minimum of 3 townies, but (3+2+2+2 discarded baddie cards - 2 neutrals) = 7 town.

So presumably at least 7 baddies, at least 7 town, and 2 neutrals. Though I could see someone discarding Serial Killer (as hard to win as) or Survivor (as boring). But that's still at least 7 baddies and at least 7 town--just definitely could be (and, indeed, as we have 21 players, must be) more than that. Just hard to deduce what faction they'd be part of.

Please attribute math/logic errors to sleeplessness or confusing numbers in my head, not any purposeful misdirection.

- - - Updated - - -


I vote for Blades.
He discarded Investigative. What kind of townie throws away the chance to be the seer?



Going out on a limb here, but I'm gonna vote Xihirli for discarding a killing role. Something's fishy...

I admit these rationales are also "not nothing", so I agree with their reasoning for a D1 vote.
Still, I'm reluctant to vote Xi just for not being bloodthirsty. Just because she's usually bloodthirsty and flipped wolf last time she acted non-bloodthirsty.... er, well, I get why AV put her vote there, but still reluctant.

[Book Wombat]

Let us hope for good game!
As always, a random vote.
Valmark

[Xihirli]

Going out on a limb here, but I'm gonna vote Xihirli for discarding a killing role. Something's fishy...

Ah, so the "we’re trying to catch a killer, this person seems like they haven’t killed anyone, we have our woman" train continues.

OMGUS AvatarVecna

[Rogan]

Speculation on card distribution
Last game, it was possible (if... I think rare) that someone could get 2 'baddie' factions, so merely discarding Werewolf, Alien, Mafia, or Cult doesn't gurantee townie. It was also that some people got 3 Town cards and thus were forced to be Town (if my memory is right, that was based on the first game having only 1 townie, as folk mostly picked 'more fun' factions.)
So, while discarding a Town card doesn't mean anything for a given person, I think that it's more probable that someone who discarded a Town card is actually a baddie. So I'm voting for one of them: Apogee1.

21 players, right?
4 baddie factions, 2 neutrals, and some forced town. For balance, I reckon there's the same (or +/- 1 of the same number) of cards in play for each baddie faction. So 4*X + 2 < 21, where X is the number of baddie cards in play.
So I'm guessing 4 players max for each baddie faction. It could be 5 for some, especially if someone was dealt two baddie cards, but such seems... well, unknowable at this stage and not usable speculation. So I'll assume 4.
That's 4*4 + 2 < 21
18 < 21
So at minimum (21-18=3) 3 townies. Likely more, but at least 3.

I admit these rationales are also "not nothing", so I agree with their reasoning for a D1 vote.
Still, I'm reluctant to vote Xi just for not being bloodthirsty. Just because she's usually bloodthirsty and flipped wolf last time she acted non-bloodthirsty.... er, well, I get why AV put her vote there, but still reluctant.

Some initial thoughts to this info wall.

I am really confident that discarding town does not automatically make you not town. I also thought getting multiple baddys would be somewhat likely, so discarding a bad faction does not make you town.
But unless we get a somewhat significant number of claims about the cards dealt, we can only guess about the distribution.

My intuition would say cult has fewer cards than other factions. After all, the cult can replace killed members and even grow, while everyone else can only lose numbers.

I also think Xi should not be killed day one. I mean, she is murderous and a traitor, but hey... she might want to try something very unexpected this time. Town healer or something. So, give her the benefit of doubt for today. Unless she does something to draw more suspicions than usually.
Discarding an info gathering role seems more damming to me anyway.

[rogue_alchemist]

From the last game, it became helpful to know what card distribution was somewhat in play. That is, how many Mafia, Cult, and Alien cards--that helped the Town figure out which factions were active and potentially how many members they had.
So, for anyone who is about to die, I recommend you say what cards you were dealt. Yeah, we probably won't trust you if you flip a baddie faction, but if you are Town and want to help the Town (or help the other factions kill each other?), then sharing is probably helpful.

Speculation on card distribution
Last game, it was possible (if... I think rare) that someone could get 2 'baddie' factions, so merely discarding Werewolf, Alien, Mafia, or Cult doesn't gurantee townie. It was also that some people got 3 Town cards and thus were forced to be Town (if my memory is right, that was based on the first game having only 1 townie, as folk mostly picked 'more fun' factions.)
So, while discarding a Town card doesn't mean anything for a given person, I think that it's more probable that someone who discarded a Town card is actually a baddie. So I'm voting for one of them: Apogee1.

HOWEVER, it is also important to note that Unavenger has learned things from each iteration of this game and presumably changed the card distribution based on that. So my reasoning above is inherently flawed. However, it's not nothing, and that's better than one usually has for a D1 initial vote.

21 players, right?
4 baddie factions, 2 neutrals, and some forced town. For balance, I reckon there's the same (or +/- 1 of the same number) of cards in play for each baddie faction. So 4*X + 2 < 21, where X is the number of baddie cards in play.
So I'm guessing 4 players max for each baddie faction. It could be 5 for some, especially if someone was dealt two baddie cards, but such seems... well, unknowable at this stage and not usable speculation. So I'll assume 4.
That's 4*4 + 2 < 21
18 < 21
So at minimum (21-18=3) 3 townies. Likely more, but at least 3.

We have 3 Mafia discards.
We have 2 Werewolf discards.
We have 2 Cult discards.
We have 2 Alien discards.
This makes me speculate that, at minimum, we have 1 Mafia, 2 werewolves, 2 Cult, and 2 Aliens. It could be less, but that seems a safe 'minimum' to set for evaluating risks.
Also makes me speculate that it's not really a minimum of 3 townies, but (3+2+2+2 discarded baddie cards - 2 neutrals) = 7 town.

So presumably at least 7 baddies, at least 7 town, and 2 neutrals. Though I could see someone discarding Serial Killer (as hard to win as) or Survivor (as boring). But that's still at least 7 baddies and at least 7 town--just definitely could be (and, indeed, as we have 21 players, must be) more than that. Just hard to deduce what faction they'd be part of.

Please attribute math/logic errors to sleeplessness or confusing numbers in my head, not any purposeful misdirection.

- - - Updated - - -





I admit these rationales are also "not nothing", so I agree with their reasoning for a D1 vote.
Still, I'm reluctant to vote Xi just for not being bloodthirsty. Just because she's usually bloodthirsty and flipped wolf last time she acted non-bloodthirsty.... er, well, I get why AV put her vote there, but still reluctant.

I thought about trying to do analysis like this. Most of what you say lines up with what I remember from last game, but with so many unknowns and the fact that the underlying mechanics get changed each time this is played, it felt moot to spell it out. I just struck with the traditional 'random' reason for a vote. Now I did narrow my vote down to those who had discarded town roles, as there are guaranteed *some* baddies in there, so seems pretty better than nothing, but picking Rogan out of the bunch is more of a fun poke at this point than a serious vote.

[Xihirli]

Why would that be guaranteed?

[Rogan]

Ah, so the "we’re trying to catch a killer, this person seems like they haven’t killed anyone, we have our woman" train continues.

OMGUS AvatarVecna

To be fair, the last time this train arrived at the correct place... Still, unless there is no wolf kill and you were roleblocked again, it would be unfair to hold discarding a killing power against you.

[Snowblaze]

Book Wombat for preventing Valmark from self-voting.

Serious analysis can wait until tomorrow, although I’ll be afk for much of the day. Should be able to find enough time in the morning to make a start, though.

[rogue_alchemist]

Some initial thoughts to this info wall.

I am really confident that discarding town does not automatically make you not town. I also thought getting multiple baddys would be somewhat likely, so discarding a bad faction does not make you town.
But unless we get a somewhat significant number of claims about the cards dealt, we can only guess about the distribution.

My intuition would say cult has fewer cards than other factions. After all, the cult can replace killed members and even grow, while everyone else can only lose numbers.

I also think Xi should not be killed day one. I mean, she is murderous and a traitor, but hey... she might want to try something very unexpected this time. Town healer or something. So, give her the benefit of doubt for today. Unless she does something to draw more suspicions than usually.
Discarding an info gathering role seems more damming to me anyway.

I will say I remember from the first time I played (which was the second time this had been run), I got Town JOAT, Alien Tracking, Town Investigative. From this I could have ended up with Town Tracking and discarded Town Investigative, so I still would have had an info gathering ability, it just wouldn't have been seer, it would have been Watcher. Not to defend your vote target, just making you aware, as you weren't there for that game.

[Batcathat]

Somehow it feels like there's both too much and too little information for me to try and figure something out, so for now I'll just vote for the first not-me person on the list with no votes. Snowblaze.

[Caerulea]

flat_footed, on account of having discarded 'protective'.

w.r.t. JeenLeen's logic: I don't think there would be the same number of cult cards as mafia/werewolves/aliens. Mostly because it would create the possibility of a large (4 going by Jeen's suggestion) person cult at the start of the game. To me that would seem overly strong, though perhaps it would be balanced by there being fewer town and more wolves? It still would heavily disfavor town victory I think.

[totadileplayz]

Overall I believe that it is more likely for scum to hide in the town's it's still possible for scum to hide in the scum discards but I seriously doubt they'd be hiding behind a cult or alien.

Of those that discarded town. The most alarming is Rogan. They actively said in recruitment that they'd want to be a cultist and if they can't be that they'd be town to become a cultist. They discarded town.


Other notables are Xihirli.

And the person I'd consider the most sus hiding behind a wolf would be batcathat discarded a killing role, and they know how impactful that can be.

[rogue_alchemist]

Why would that be guaranteed?

because the odds of that many people having all town cards is low, and the general consensus is that town is less fun as you don't have a group to talk with/plan with. With so many factions being town is also a lot harder, so I will guarantee that there is at least 1 baddie in the group that discarded town cards.

[Rogan]

I will say I remember from the first time I played (which was the second time this had been run), I got Town JOAT, Alien Tracking, Town Investigative. From this I could have ended up with Town Tracking and discarded Town Investigative, so I still would have had an info gathering ability, it just wouldn't have been seer, it would have been Watcher. Not to defend your vote target, just making you aware, as you weren't there for that game.

Thanks for the reminder. I'll keep it in mind.


flat_footed, on account of having discarded 'protective'.

w.r.t. JeenLeen's logic: I don't think there would be the same number of cult cards as mafia/werewolves/aliens. Mostly because it would create the possibility of a large (4 going by Jeen's suggestion) person cult at the start of the game. To me that would seem overly strong, though perhaps it would be balanced by there being fewer town and more wolves? It still would heavily disfavor town victory I think.

Okay, you are probably right about protective being a very strong power, maybe even more powerful than seer. After all, you can both self target when you don't know who is hostile and protect other helpful people. Especially when you can't target yourself.
So, info gathering and protection as suggested top picks from a power perspective? For fun, I think other roles would be better.

Agree about the cult, but I said so before.


Overall I believe that it is more likely for scum to hide in the town's it's still possible for scum to hide in the scum discards but I seriously doubt they'd be hiding behind a cult or alien.

Of those that discarded town. The most alarming is Rogan. They actively said in recruitment that they'd want to be a cultist and if they can't be that they'd be town to become a cultist. They discarded town.


Other notables are Xihirli.

And the person I'd consider the most sus hiding behind a wolf would be batcathat discarded a killing role, and they know how impactful that can be.

I don't think I said I want to be town to become a cultists? I joked about joining to help make a cult, but part of this was unavanger stating he could delay the game start to help someone make the cut.
My preference I openly stated was a survivor gifting info gathering powers to other people for fun and profit.

[Elenna]

Still trying to get Valmark lynched D1.

[Valmark]

CaoimhinTheCape. I'm not sure you've got no votes on you though, I kinda lost count midway.

Anyway, I wouldn't put too much stock on what was said in recruitment before cards were being dealt- they aren't actually indicative of anything since there wasn't anything to indicate just yet (imo).

[Xihirli]

Still trying to get Valmark lynched D1.

I’ll join you after I’m done being indignant

[Apogee1]

Ah, so the "we’re trying to catch a killer, this person seems like they haven’t killed anyone, we have our woman" train continues.

OMGUS AvatarVecna

Absence of evidence is evidence of conspiracy, after all :p

-------------------

Anyways Jeen's table pretty drastically underpredicts the number of people of each alignment in my experience with how the previous two games have gone.

Reading too much into what people select just makes it easier for wolf/maf/cult/alien/sk to figure out who the cops and vig's are.

I'd be interested in seeing why flat-footed didn't take protective, but in my own experience a doc in this kind of game is both boring and pretty useless for town.

[totadileplayz]

Thanks for the reminder. I'll keep it in mind.



Okay, you are probably right about protective being a very strong power, maybe even more powerful than seer. After all, you can both self target when you don't know who is hostile and protect other helpful people. Especially when you can't target yourself.
So, info gathering and protection as suggested top picks from a power perspective? For fun, I think other roles would be better.

Agree about the cult, but I said so before.



I don't think I said I want to be town to become a cultists? I joked about joining to help make a cult, but part of this was unavanger stating he could delay the game start to help someone make the cut.
My preference I openly stated was a survivor gifting info gathering powers to other people for fun and profit.


If you find one more player, you can count me in as well.

This way I would help you make the cult

I don't know if the words I remembered were deleted, edited or simply fabricated in my mind but you do Express interest in making the cult.

[AvatarVecna]

I’ll join you after I’m done being indignant

Love u 2~ <3 :smalltongue:

[Rogan]

I don't know if the words I remembered were deleted, edited or simply fabricated in my mind but you do Express interest in making the cult.



Recruitment will probably be two weeks, but I can push it just a little longer if that's gonna help you make the cut.



At first, I thought you had written "help you make the cult. :biggrin:

I am not sure if I am going to join. But I am interested.

Later, when there was only one player needed to get cult cards, I joined the game, thereby creating a cult - or at least create the possibility of a cult.
But my intend was more of a continued joke than the wish to be a member of the cult.

But enough of the recruitment thread, or else I have to claim seer.


Does anybody disagree about the possibility of there being fewer cult cards than cards for other evildoers? There obviously are more town cards than any single other factions.

[Batcathat]

Does anybody disagree about the possibility of there being fewer cult cards than cards for other evildoers? There obviously are more town cards than any single other factions.

Since they can make more of themselves, it would make sense if there was less of them to start with. But since I haven't played one of the Crazy Idea games before, I don't really know if that reasoning makes sense.

[rogue_alchemist]

Later, when there was only one player needed to get cult cards, I joined the game, thereby creating a cult - or at least create the possibility of a cult.
But my intend was more of a continued joke than the wish to be a member of the cult.

But enough of the recruitment thread, or else I have to claim seer.


Does anybody disagree about the possibility of there being fewer cult cards than cards for other evildoers? There obviously are more town cards than any single other factions.
I asked Unavenger last time about the distribution of cards and they said that it is not even. So I think Cult will start with fewer, now there is also the choice element, so maybe instead of starting with 7 of each card cult only starts with 5, which would still be too many for normal balance, but assuming that some people will discard cult (like I did).

[totadileplayz]

Later, when there was only one player needed to get cult cards, I joined the game, thereby creating a cult - or at least create the possibility of a cult.
But my intend was more of a continued joke than the wish to be a member of the cult.

But enough of the recruitment thread, or else I have to claim seer.


Does anybody disagree about the possibility of there being fewer cult cards than cards for other evildoers? There obviously are more town cards than any single other factions.

Yeah choice element. I'm looking at 1-3 cultists in the game the sooner we eliminate that faction the sooner we don't have to be concerned about cultists mucking up our town reads.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

FOS on everyone who discarded a town faction card.

Hard disagree. 3 Town cards is reasonable to get, or you could have gotten the ability you want on the faction card. It's Day 1 so voting someone for this reason isn't scummy yet but I'm not basing a vote on that.



Speculation on card distribution
Last game, it was possible (if... I think rare) that someone could get 2 'baddie' factions, so merely discarding Werewolf, Alien, Mafia, or Cult doesn't gurantee townie. It was also that some people got 3 Town cards and thus were forced to be Town (if my memory is right, that was based on the first game having only 1 townie, as folk mostly picked 'more fun' factions.)

That was me who picked Townie first game. That said, if I remember right last game there were quite a few people who got 3 Town cards. There were also people who got 2 faction cards and picked the one they were more interested in. I don't remember numbers but they were there.



Anyways Jeen's table pretty drastically underpredicts the number of people of each alignment in my experience with how the previous two games have gone.

Reading too much into what people select just makes it easier for wolf/maf/cult/alien/sk to figure out who the cops and vig's are.

The first game everyone was something, the second game toned it down to be reasonable if I remember correctly.




I'll throw a vote on flat_footed to build on a wagon and I agree that protective is a valuable discard. Should be noted there are a few others who discarded that too.



Votes:

bladescape (1): Rogan
Rogan (2): rogue_alchemist, totadileplayz
Xihirli (1): AvatarVecna
Apogee1 (1): JeenLeen
Valmark (2): Book Wombat, Elenna
AvatarVecna (1): Xihirli
Book Wombat (1): Snowblaze
Snowblaze (1): Bathatcat
flat_footed (2): Caerulea, CaoimhinTheCape
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Valmark

No Votes: Apogee1
No Posts: MornShine, gac3, bladescape, Aventine, EmmyNecromancer, Captain Cap

[Apogee1]

I'll throw a vote on flat_footed to build on a wagon and I agree that protective is a valuable discard. Should be noted there are a few others who discarded that too.


*looks around innocently*

[Xihirli]

Whereas Town Killing tends to just blindly hit townies and Seers.
Pauses to look at someone who will not be named

So I don’t think it should be suspicious to discard what is basically the card that 9 times out of 10 makes a townie the MVP of the wolf team.

[Rogan]

Whereas Town Killing tends to just blindly hit townies and Seers.
Pauses to look at someone who will not be named

So I don’t think it should be suspicious to discard what is basically the card that 9 times out of 10 makes a townie the MVP of the wolf team.

Especially in a game without a town network. I mean, come on, if there was a network, there would be no excuse for killing the seer, but here? Xi has a point.

Now, on the other hand, in this game there are many more hostiles for everybody, so even shooting blind has somewhat good odds of hitting a hostile. On the other hand, there are two factional kills, a good chance of a serial killer and there might be other players who took killing. So, there will probably be multiple deaths, making killing a lower priority for town.

The way Xi watches someone who won't be named makes me wonder if she wants to claim Watcher later? But no, it's more likely to be a joke.

[totadileplayz]

I suppose I was the 1 out of 10 then.

[AvatarVecna]

Recent weirdness aside, I do tend to think that vigilante is more a hindrance to town than anything else, and works best if it's still "aimed" by town in some fashion. A kill aimed by one player's gut isn't all that useful, a kill aimed by most of town tends to have a better chance of being right. But also the presence of a vig means that we progress through killing people quicker, means a shorter game. It means more kills in town's control, but I think we all know just how devastating a bad town-vig can be for town.

[Apogee1]

I mean even with conservative estimates, I'd be pretty shocked if vigs had less than say, a 40-60% chance of hitting a non-town blind in this game.

Once we account for the fact that like, there will be like, a dozen night action results that should make it easier to hit, yeah vigs seem pretty good.

Also, in a game like this, it'd be fun :p

But my own vig philosophy tends to differ from the consensus, so its whatever.

[totadileplayz]

I can honestly say if I had a killing I'd have made drastically different decisions for my role then what I did make.

[EmmyNecromancer]

I claim to have not received a neutral card.

[MornShine]

I can honestly say if I had a killing I'd have made drastically different decisions for my role then what I did make.

Potentially useful information, or clever misdirection? I'm guessing the former.

It's a bit late in the day to start a new wagon, and no-one's really ticking my suspicion (except-- very slightly-- Xi, but I don't expect to get lucky twice), so of the leading three... let's go with flat_footed? They haven't posted yet either, so I suppose it serves as a poke.


I claim to have not received a neutral card.

Plausible, given that with 21 players the odds are (I was going to do math, but let's just say pretty low). Possibly an oddly specific denial, but I doubt it.

Oh, and before I forget, the current vote list is missing flat_footed. In the same post as Cao voted for them. Hmm.

[JeenLeen]

The arguments about there likely being fewer Cultist cards than other baddie factions makes sense. Plus sounds like the Narrator confirmed there weren't equal number of baddie cards in play, anyhow.

Also, definitely agree that
-discarding a Town card proves nothing about alignment
-discarding a baddie card proves nothing about alignment
We should assume some folk were dealt 2-3 Town cards, and some (or at least 1 player) were dealt 2 baddie cards. Otherwise things get too predictable (once some intel is shared), and, after two games of this, I trust Unavenger's game design to not let someone alignment be proven by the initial discard.

The only alignment that could definitively be proven by the discards is Not Serial Killer or Not Survivor, but nobody discarded those, so it's unknown if they actually made it into the game.
Though I admit I do think it's unlikely anyone was dealt two of the same baddie faction. E.g., bladescape might be a baddie, but I'm pretty sure he's not an Alien.

I can also see a Town not wanting to be a killer.
Also, a Survivor might want to avoid that (lest they get too troublesome/annoying and get lynched) and a Serial Killer might find it redundant. The only faction that I feel really wouldn't discard Killer is Alien, since a NK is really powerful for them, though they might trade that out for a mindslave power. At least to me, mindslave and killer seem the strongest Alien powers.

--- ---

I considered asking everyone who discarded a baddie card their motivation for doing so, in hopes of ferreting out those who got two baddie cards.
But it is probably unwise as that might reveal someone who did so to be Town Seer or another useful, and not wanting-known-publicly, power.

- - - Updated - - -

Caveat: while I agree discarding a Town card doesn't guarantee being a baddie, I still think (as I said earlier and rogue_alchemist seconded) that discarding a Town card makes it more likely a baddie card was chosen. At the least, if we wanted a set of players that were mostly baddies, I'd think those that explicitly discarded a Town card would be the best set to choose from.
Again, barring actual evidence or analysis to point us towards someone.

[gac3]

Oh man. I didn't know this started. Will look at the threat after work. Posting this to check in and subscribe.

[Xihirli]

The arguments about there likely being fewer Cultist cards than other baddie factions makes sense. Plus sounds like the Narrator confirmed there weren't equal number of baddie cards in play, anyhow.

Also, definitely agree that
-discarding a Town card proves nothing about alignment
-discarding a baddie card proves nothing about alignment
We should assume some folk were dealt 2-3 Town cards, and some (or at least 1 player) were dealt 2 baddie cards. Otherwise things get too predictable (once some intel is shared), and, after two games of this, I trust Unavenger's game design to not let someone alignment be proven by the initial discard.

The only alignment that could definitively be proven by the discards is Not Serial Killer or Not Survivor, but nobody discarded those, so it's unknown if they actually made it into the game.
Though I admit I do think it's unlikely anyone was dealt two of the same baddie faction. E.g., bladescape might be a baddie, but I'm pretty sure he's not an Alien.

I can also see a Town not wanting to be a killer.
Also, a Survivor might want to avoid that (lest they get too troublesome/annoying and get lynched) and a Serial Killer might find it redundant. The only faction that I feel really wouldn't discard Killer is Alien, since a NK is really powerful for them, though they might trade that out for a mindslave power. At least to me, mindslave and killer seem the strongest Alien powers.

--- ---

I considered asking everyone who discarded a baddie card their motivation for doing so, in hopes of ferreting out those who got two baddie cards.
But it is probably unwise as that might reveal someone who did so to be Town Seer or another useful, and not wanting-known-publicly, power.

- - - Updated - - -

Caveat: while I agree discarding a Town card doesn't guarantee being a baddie, I still think (as I said earlier and rogue_alchemist seconded) that discarding a Town card makes it more likely a baddie card was chosen. At the least, if we wanted a set of players that were mostly baddies, I'd think those that explicitly discarded a Town card would be the best set to choose from.
Again, barring actual evidence or analysis to point us towards someone.

To divert maximum suspicion to myself, I got a cultist card and two town cards. Figure this information helps Town more than any other faction. Not feeling revealing more right now, though.

- - - Updated - - -




Plausible, given that with 21 players the odds are (I was going to do math, but let's just say pretty low). Possibly an oddly specific denial, but I doubt it.

I believe the joke here is that Emmy has gotten neutral 2 games in a row.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Potentially useful information, or clever misdirection? I'm guessing the former.

It's a bit late in the day to start a new wagon, and no-one's really ticking my suspicion (except-- very slightly-- Xi, but I don't expect to get lucky twice), so of the leading three... let's go with flat_footed? They haven't posted yet either, so I suppose it serves as a poke.


Oh, and before I forget, the current vote list is missing flat_footed. In the same post as Cao voted for them. Hmm.

I don't think it's all that late in the day, there's plenty of time for wagons.

Yeah, I miss stuff sometimes. You don't have to trust this but I don't mess with the vote counts on purpose. In this specific case I don't know what I would gain from leaving flat_footed off, but good catch.


The only faction that I feel really wouldn't discard Killer is Alien, since a NK is really powerful for them, though they might trade that out for a mindslave power. At least to me, mindslave and killer seem the strongest Alien powers.


Cult would desperately want a killer. A Cult Fanatic is super helpful - if the person they try to convert is Wolf, Mafia, or Alien they kill the target instead of failing to convert. Means their conversion will be helpful no matter what.





Votes:

bladescape (1): Rogan
Rogan (2): rogue_alchemist, totadileplayz
Xihirli (1): AvatarVecna
Apogee1 (1): JeenLeen
Valmark (2): Book Wombat, Elenna
AvatarVecna (1): Xihirli
Book Wombat (1): Snowblaze
Snowblaze (1): Bathatcat
flat_footed (3): Caerulea, CaoimhinTheCape, MornShine
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Valmark

No Votes: Apogee1, EmmyNecromancer, gac3
No Posts: bladescape, Aventine, Captain Cap, flat_footed

[totadileplayz]

Does revealing your role alignment cards help any other faction besides town?

[JeenLeen]

Does revealing your role alignment cards help any other faction besides town?

Good question.
I think it at least helps Town the most. The baddies can already compare results, so they already have more knowledge than the Town does (assuming no faction of 1). If townies, who are up for lynch, keep quiet about their cards, the surviving townies don't know more about the distribution.
It probably does help the other factions some. But I think it probably would help them the most at figuring out how big the other bad factions are, which isn't necessarily bad for Town: if the mafia is hunting werewolves, it's not hunting townies.

Revealing just the alignment is probably safer than alignment and powers, since that keeps the baddies from having more intel about what the power distribution was and help them make deductions about what powers are left in play. I'd feel comfortable with someone who is about to die only sharing the alignment portion of their cards... though I'm not completely convinced it's necessarily bad to share the power portion--just I see a reason it might be bad and would respect that decision.

I'm assuming this is sharing if about to die. Sharing earlier helps the baddies decide who to kill, which isn't great for us. Though I can see a townie honestly or dishonestly revealing their Cards to draw to try to avoid NKs or banes.

[Xihirli]

Yeah, if I hypothetically chose to play as Town, Cult already knows I'm not on their side.

That said, in this situation Cult now knows, or are the people who can most reasonably conclude, that I am neither a wolf nor an alien, and am therefore a target they can convert.

Though now town also knows that, and might either protect me or just kill me tomorrow in case, so I might be the worst choice.

But werewolves come from transylvania, where alien sightings are rare, so they clearly cannot choose the player in front of me.

[bladescape]

I vote for Blades.
He discarded Investigative. What kind of townie throws away the chance to be the seer?

I also deduct that Unavenger is the Deutsche Bahn (German railway). They have a habit of being late and changing the estimated time of arrival multiple times. (The train will be five minutes to late. *5min later* The train will be ten minutes to late. ETC. )

Because I got a chance to be a town vig???

Seer is weaksauce. If you sus someone, shoot them in the face.

- - - Updated - - -


I mean even with conservative estimates, I'd be pretty shocked if vigs had less than say, a 40-60% chance of hitting a non-town blind in this game.

Once we account for the fact that like, there will be like, a dozen night action results that should make it easier to hit, yeah vigs seem pretty good.

Also, in a game like this, it'd be fun :p

But my own vig philosophy tends to differ from the consensus, so its whatever.

I agree with this.

Rogan Just because of his weaksauce accusation

[Xihirli]

See, this is the attitude that makes me conclude that vigs are a detriment to town.

[bladescape]

See, this is the attitude that makes me conclude that vigs are a detriment to town.

Last time I got a vig my first shot hit a wolf?

[Xihirli]

Sure, go ahead. As the old adage goes; one person bats a thousand.

[bladescape]

Sure, go ahead. As the old adage goes; one person bats a thousand.

That person is me. :smalltongue:

[Elenna]

I'm not sure how much we can conclude about people from their discards. For one thing, people who have played these games before may have been thinking about what kind of message their discard would send, when picking their role. Also, as JeenLeen said, I'm sure there exist players who got 2+ townie card and also players who got 2+ non-town cards.
It's nice that the discussion about cards is giving people something to talk about D1, though.

I'm kinda curious whether previous games showed any correlation between discarded roles and factions. That being said, I don't have time to go look at it, and anyways I suspect the sample size is too small to draw any real conclusions. I would guess that many people (most people?) chose the role that they enjoy playing most rather than the role that they thought would be most helpful to their faction.

I agree that the group of people who discarded town probably has a higher percentage of non-town people compared to the group that discarded non-town. However, I don't think the difference is high enough that it's worth focusing on after maybe day 1 or 2, once we start getting more information.

---

Side note: One thing I find interesting about these games is that the majority of players are not town (I assume), and yet everyone has to keep acting as town. Even though everyone knows that most people are lying, if someone claims non-town then they have the actual townies gunning for them and the other factions still want them dead, so there's no advantage to admitting it. This was extra obvious in the first game when the only actual townie was converted by cult N1 and then the rest of the game was just a bunch of non-town players all pretending to be town.

I've never managed to figure out a way to take advantage of this as either town or non-town, it's just an interesting quirk.


Yeah, if I hypothetically chose to play as Town, Cult already knows I'm not on their side.

That said, in this situation Cult now knows, or are the people who can most reasonably conclude, that I am neither a wolf nor an alien, and am therefore a target they can convert.

Though now town also knows that, and might either protect me or just kill me tomorrow in case, so I might be the worst choice.

But werewolves come from transylvania, where alien sightings are rare, so they clearly cannot choose the player in front of me.
*sips wine*

[Aventine]

To divert maximum suspicion to myself, I got a cultist card and two town cards. Figure this information helps Town more than any other faction. Not feeling revealing more right now, though.

I had a cult card that I was extremely tempted to take. But I wasn't all that excited about the other two powers I got and could pair with cult (now cult fanatic I would have taken in a heart-beat). Also the power on my cult card was nice.

Depending on how many cult cards we think are out there, we might be looking at either no cult or one of me or Xi lying about drawing a cult card and using it for power rather than alignment.

- - - Updated - - -

I'll jump on the Rogan wagon for now

[Xihirli]

I never said that I used it for a power and I never said that I didn't pick it for alignment.

[Aventine]

I mean, if you want to claim cult go ahead, but I assumed you weren't doing that yet

[bladescape]

I had a cult card that I was extremely tempted to take. But I wasn't all that excited about the other two powers I got and could pair with cult (now cult fanatic I would have taken in a heart-beat). Also the power on my cult card was nice.

Depending on how many cult cards we think are out there, we might be looking at either no cult or one of me or Xi lying about drawing a cult card and using it for power rather than alignment.

- - - Updated - - -

I'll jump on the Rogan wagon for now

This reads mildly opportunistic.

- - - Updated - - -


I vote for Blades.
He discarded Investigative. What kind of townie throws away the chance to be the seer?

I also deduct that Unavenger is the Deutsche Bahn (German railway). They have a habit of being late and changing the estimated time of arrival multiple times. (The train will be five minutes to late. *5min later* The train will be ten minutes to late. ETC. )

Also fun fact, if Rogan is mafia/werewolf/alien/whatever he's teamed with Elanna probably.

[Snowblaze]

I must not fakeclaim cultist for the lulz.

I must not fakeclaim cultist for the lulz.

I must not fakeclaim cultist for the lulz.

Anyway. I’ll try to be serious. I don’t have reads exactly, just a collection of random thoughts.

Speaking as someone dealt three town cards, I definitely disagree with rogue_alchemist’s logic on “people who discarded town are more likely to be scum”. If we’re working from the premise of “people prefer playing scum” I’d actually be more suspicious of people discarding a scum card - people who discarded town could just have had three town cards but if people discard scum there’s a good chance that it’s only because they’re playing a different scum role.

But that’s not a route I want to go down. It’s not necessarily true that everyone prefers playing scum all of the time, and it would feel really unfair to kill someone wrongly because of this.

Now, does this actually translate into a scumread on r_a? I... don’t think so. Or, more to the point, my gut says it should but I’m choosing not to go there because I’ve deathtunneled town!r_a before and it’s a read based off mechanics.

@JeenLeen a lot of people discarded town cards; what made you select Apogee in particular?

...I actually agree with Rogan on not killing Xihirli today. Though that doesn’t stop me making a mental note of a potential partnership between those two.

I don’t think Batcathat had any votes as of Valmark’s first post... is it a conspiracy between them? Unlikely but not impossible. *makes another mental note*

Speaking of Valmark’s first post the “I don’t think we should put too much stock into what was said in recruitment” is a valid point but also kind of non-commital. And a soft defence of Rogan.

Can certain people who should not be named please stop speculating about who might have what power in public?

@bladescape isn’t the first post of the game a little soon to be expecting a non-weaksauce accusation?

Valid point on Rogan/Elenna, though probably turns into WIFOM if you think about too deeply (but Rogan would know doing that calls attention to Elenna so wouldn’t do that as Elenna’s partner... etc.)

Welp, that turned into a wallpost. Anyway, like I said earlier I’ll be busy for much of today so tune in later for another Snowblaze wall!

[bladescape]

@bladescape isn’t the first post of the game a little soon to be expecting a non-weaksauce accusation?

Valid point on Rogan/Elenna, though probably turns into WIFOM if you think about too deeply (but Rogan would know doing that calls attention to Elenna so wouldn’t do that as Elenna’s partner... etc.)

Welp, that turned into a wallpost. Anyway, like I said earlier I’ll be busy for much of today so tune in later for another Snowblaze wall!

SNOW. BLAZE. WALL. SNOW. BLAZE. WALL.

Look, the people are cheering for it.

Tbh I just wanted to use the word 'weaksauce'. It was a quaint little word. :smalltongue:

As for the WIFOM, that's to be thought about at any point where one of them flips red.

Before then? We just meme about it being possible.

[Aventine]

If we're doing walls I'll add my own little wall on initial gut reads...

-I think rogue_alchemist's FOS only really makes a lot of sense if you're not expecting many people to draw multiple town cards. Potential slip that he didn't.

-AV voting for Xihirli for discarding a killing role. It feels like something that could actually be spun into a wagon on Xi without actually being a reason to suspect Xi of being scum. Sorta feels like testing the water with a possible mislynch wagon that can reasonably easily be played off as a joke if AV needs to dodge blowback.

-JeenLeen's big numbers post triggers my "trying to look like solvey without doing anything really helpful to solving" sense slightly.


Overall I believe that it is more likely for scum to hide in the town's it's still possible for scum to hide in the scum discards but I seriously doubt they'd be hiding behind a cult or alien.

Why do you doubt that specifically?

-Apogee advises against reading into what people selected, then proceeded to do exactly that (and in a wishy-washy way too).

[Batcathat]

-Apogee advises against reading into what people selected, then proceeded to do exactly that (and in a wishy-washy way too).

In Apogee's defense, it's kind of easy to slip into doing that since that's pretty much all the information we have to go on at the moment. I keep finding myself staring at the discard list and trying to will some sort of eureka moment out of it, even if it's unlikely bordering on impossible.

[bladescape]

-I think rogue_alchemist's FOS only really makes a lot of sense if you're not expecting many people to draw multiple town cards. Potential slip that he didn't.

Honestly the rest of the reads I could take or leave. Some have merit but the merit is... not large.

This point?

This point is meaty

- - - Updated - - -


In Apogee's defense, it's kind of easy to slip into doing that since that's pretty much all the information we have to go on at the moment. I keep finding myself staring at the discard list and trying to will some sort of eureka moment out of it, even if it's unlikely bordering on impossible.

The only guaranteed info you can get out of it is that they didn't use the card they discarded. :smalltongue:

Also Apogee/Batcat w/w? :smalltongue:

[Captain Cap]

Speculation on card distribution
Last game, it was possible (if... I think rare) that someone could get 2 'baddie' factions, so merely discarding Werewolf, Alien, Mafia, or Cult doesn't gurantee townie. It was also that some people got 3 Town cards and thus were forced to be Town (if my memory is right, that was based on the first game having only 1 townie, as folk mostly picked 'more fun' factions.)
So, while discarding a Town card doesn't mean anything for a given person, I think that it's more probable that someone who discarded a Town card is actually a baddie. So I'm voting for one of them: Apogee1.

HOWEVER, it is also important to note that Unavenger has learned things from each iteration of this game and presumably changed the card distribution based on that. So my reasoning above is inherently flawed. However, it's not nothing, and that's better than one usually has for a D1 initial vote.
The reasoning is actually flawed in a more general way.

Basically, what we want to confront are the probabilities P(Cb|Db) (of being a baddie if the card discarded is baddie) and P(Cb|Dt) (if card discarded is town). Let Bx be the proposition "the player drew x baddies". Now let's do some math (for the sake of simplicity, I'll keep neutrals out of this):

P(Cb|Db) = P(Cb,B0|Db) + P(Cb,B1|Db) + P(Cb,B2|Db) + P(Cb,B3|Db)
= P(Cb,B2|Db) + P(Cb,B3|Db)
= P(Db|Cb,B2)*P(Cb|B2)*P(B2)/P(Db) + P(Db|Cb,B3)*P(Cb|B3)*P(B3)/P(Db)

P(Cb|Dt) = P(Cb,B0|Dt) + P(Cb,B1|Dt) + P(Cb,B2|Dt) + P(Cb,B3|Dt)
= P(Cb,B1|Dt) + P(Cb,B2|Dt)
= P(Dt|Cb,B1)*P(Cb|B1)*P(B1)/P(Dt) + P(Dt|Cb,B2)*P(Cb|B2)*P(B2)/P(Dt)

Let's now make a few assumptions:
- if a player is able to choose between town and baddie, the probability of choosing baddie is independent from the baddies drawn, thus P(Cb|Bx)=Q for x≠0,3, with Q the average willingness of playing baddie;
- once the faction is chosen, which card is going to be discarded depends only on power preference.

Then we get:

P(Cb|Db) = Q/2*P(B2)/P(Db) + P(B3)/P(Db)

P(Cb|Dt) = Q*P(B1)/P(Dt) + Q/2*P(B2)/P(Dt)

We can estimate P(Db) and P(Dt) from the list of discarded cards, obtaining P(Db)=3/7 and P(Dt)=4/7, so:

P(Cb|Db) = 7Q/6*P(B2)+ 7/3*P(B3)

P(Cb|Dt) = 7Q/4*P(B1) + 7Q/6*P(B2)

Given how the results depend on Q, P(B1), P(B2), P(B3), it's definitely false that in general a player discarding town is more likely a baddie (the fact I used certain assumptions, if we agree their reasonable, doesn't really affect this conclusion, given a specific case is enough to prove something isn't generally true).



Whereas Town Killing tends to just blindly hit townies and Seers.
Pauses to look at someone who will not be named

So I don’t think it should be suspicious to discard what is basically the card that 9 times out of 10 makes a townie the MVP of the wolf team.

Recent weirdness aside, I do tend to think that vigilante is more a hindrance to town than anything else, and works best if it's still "aimed" by town in some fashion. A kill aimed by one player's gut isn't all that useful, a kill aimed by most of town tends to have a better chance of being right. But also the presence of a vig means that we progress through killing people quicker, means a shorter game. It means more kills in town's control, but I think we all know just how devastating a bad town-vig can be for town.

I mean even with conservative estimates, I'd be pretty shocked if vigs had less than say, a 40-60% chance of hitting a non-town blind in this game.

Once we account for the fact that like, there will be like, a dozen night action results that should make it easier to hit, yeah vigs seem pretty good.

I agree with Apogee1 here. In this particular kind of game, with likely a lot of baddies, being a vigilante is less dangerous than usual and for the same reason another way to keep the enemy population at bay can be a great asset. However, I'm not sure discarding it should be considered suspicious (Xihirli aside), as there are other good choices (I'd probably take Jack of All Trades and Investigative over it).


Regarding the Cult matter, while I agree they're probably fewer than the others, I think they should still be the priority: they're a disease we need to weed out before it's too late. For this reason I wouldn't vote Elenna and rogue_alchemist today.

[Batcathat]

Now I'm split between wanting to vote Captain Cap for making my head hurt with all that math and wanting to protect him as a potentially valuable resource. I've watched enough Numbers to know about solving murders with the power of math. :smallwink:

[Captain Cap]

Now I'm split between wanting to vote Captain Cap for making my head hurt with all that math and wanting to protect him as a potentially valuable resource. I've watched enough Numbers to know about solving murders with the power of math. :smallwink:
To be fair, I used math to advise against using math. :smallbiggrin: (at least for now)

[bladescape]

To be fair, I used numbers to advise against using numbers. :smallbiggrin:

This wine is delicious

[Captain Cap]

VOTE COUNT:
bladescape (1): Rogan
Rogan (4): rogue_alchemist, totadileplayz, bladescape, Aventine
Xihirli (1): AvatarVecna
Apogee1 (1): JeenLeen
Valmark (2): Book Wombat, Elenna
AvatarVecna (1): Xihirli
Book Wombat (1): Snowblaze
Snowblaze (1): Bathatcat
flat_footed (3): Caerulea, CaoimhinTheCape, MornShine
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Valmark
Aventine (1): Captain Cap


I'll jump on the Rogan wagon for now
Reasoning? I think a 4th vote on someone (especially when it makes them the leading train) should require a bit more.

[Rogan]

Because I got a chance to be a town vig???

Seer is weaksauce. If you sus someone, shoot them in the face.

Rogan Just because of his weaksauce accusation

While I don't like the vote and the kind of reasoning (shooting someone who is suspicious might kill the town seer, in which case Xi will demand the Vigs head) I can follow your line of thought here.



See, this is the attitude that makes me conclude that vigs are a detriment to town.

And again, I like Xis points. Almost like she is my half-sister or something. Oh, sorry. Wrong game!



I had a cult card that I was extremely tempted to take. But I wasn't all that excited about the other two powers I got and could pair with cult (now cult fanatic I would have taken in a heart-beat). Also the power on my cult card was nice.

Depending on how many cult cards we think are out there, we might be looking at either no cult or one of me or Xi lying about drawing a cult card and using it for power rather than alignment.

- - - Updated - - -

I'll jump on the Rogan wagon for now

Unless the cult uses a message on converting or they have a fanatic and roast someone we can't be sure about the cult. But I agree the number of cultists is likely low right now. Possibly even non-existent.

Do you have a specific reason for your jump?


This reads mildly opportunistic.

Also fun fact, if Rogan is mafia/werewolf/alien/whatever he's teamed with Elanna probably.

Agree about the first part. The second part... nope. I picked my vote as soon as the discards were online. After all, why would I wait for a QT when I had three crappy town cards? I even was close to posting too soon, but luckily I noticed the change of starting time.

@Elenna
Do you want to say some more about your reason for discarding Investigative?

@flat-footed
Are you the serial killer (or the survivor)?
If my memory does not mislead me, you were more concerned about staying alive than investigating things last match. Now you discard a protective role. So you might have a faction with inbuilt protection. You are also the second biggest wagon and I want to stay alive

[rogue_alchemist]

Now I'm split between wanting to vote Captain Cap for making my head hurt with all that math and wanting to protect him as a potentially valuable resource. I've watched enough Numbers to know about solving murders with the power of math. :smallwink:

I don't remember if it was Captain Cap last time too, but someone posted a link to a google sheet of math for one of these games. It ended up getting them lynched, if I remember correctly, because it was suspicious to use math to come to the conclusion they did. It's early (IRL for me), so this may not be correct or make sense, I will come back to it in a bit and double check.

I see a lot of discussion about how likely it is that someone who discarded town is a baddie. A lot of people seem to say it is no more suspicious than people who discarded baddie factions, but I can't believe there are an equal distribution of people who got 2 baddie faction choices and chose one of those as there are people who only got 1 and discarded a town as who got all three being town. I am not saying everyone who discarded town is a baddie (I know it is probably not even the majority), but when you are grasping at straws D1 (and D1 only!) you are more likely to find someone hiding in that pile than you are in the people who discarded baddie pile.

I am also uncomfortable having made a silly vote on Rogan about the Deutsche Bahn and it now being the leading wagon. I don't want to move my vote off though because then it'll seem like I was placing a distancing vote on Rogan and jumped off when it became a real wagon, so I am committed now I guess. I just want my vote to be noted as the first vote on the wagon and for silly D1 reasons that weren't meant to start something serious.

EDIT: Also there have been several posts that give more information than I think people realize because if talking about your preferences in light of your discard can give information about choices you *didn't* have and thus limit the roles you then *do* have.

[Captain Cap]

I don't remember if it was Captain Cap last time too, but someone posted a link to a google sheet of math for one of these games. It ended up getting them lynched, if I remember correctly, because it was suspicious to use math to come to the conclusion they did. It's early (IRL for me), so this may not be correct or make sense, I will come back to it in a bit and double check.
Yes, it was me. It was the Left 4 Dead 3 game and I actually managed to survive until the end, ending with town victory.

- - - Updated - - -


I am not saying everyone who discarded town is a baddie (I know it is probably not even the majority), but when you are grasping at straws D1 (and D1 only!) you are more likely to find someone hiding in that pile than you are in the people who discarded baddie pile.
Without knowing more about the distributions, there's nothing to justify this conclusion.

[Xihirli]

Okay I know I'm looking for confirmation to do what I already wanted to do but Valmark I know you've been online. Any thoughts on the game since your first and only post?

[rogue_alchemist]

Yes, it was me. It was the Left 4 Dead 3 game and I actually managed to survive until the end, ending with town victory.

- - - Updated - - -


Without knowing more about the distributions, there's nothing to justify this conclusion.

Ahh, yes. Thank you for clearing that up, I thought it was you, but I couldn't confirm it first thing this morning. I know it generated a lot of suspicion on you (at least initially) and I always get lynched D1 or D2, so I didn't survive much beyond your post. I am glad to see that math did not, in fact, cause an innocent to die.

As to your second point, I agree there is nothing but a vague feeling to justify it (so nothing in a mathematical or logistical way), but in these games even a vague feeling is enough on D1, so I'm fine with it. I 100% agree that going forward it should not be used at all D2 or beyond, as we will then have something more concrete to go on.

[JeenLeen]

[I]@JeenLeen a lot of people discarded town cards; what made you select Apogee in particular?


No strong reason, but
- he's a skilled player, and since most (or probably at least half) folk are baddies, seems probable he's a baddie and he's not someone I'd want against me
- he isn't a newish player
- he was in the last couple games
- he didn't die early last game
- I didn't want to play into the usual "lynch AV or lynch Xi because they're usually evil cliche"

I admit I hadn't really looked at what powers were discarded, just alignment, at that point. If I had, I may have voted someone else.

---

Xi didn't claim cult, but she also explicitly isn't claiming not-cult. Which kinda makes me lean cult on her
Still, fair point about the alien sightings in Transylvania, so I'm willing to leave her be :smalltongue:

I'm inclined to either believe bladescape's Town Vig claim (was it really a claim?) or see what happens with it if it's a lie.
Either way, I don't feel inclined to vote them today.

I am surprised at how little response there's been to a <whatever you'd call what Xi said> and a vig claim early D1. If either turn out to be non-Town, the non-response of those who had been active might be telling.



-JeenLeen's big numbers post triggers my "trying to look like solvey without doing anything really helpful to solving" sense slightly.


I admit it's all rather unfounded speculation, as I presume Captain Cap's mathemancy shows (I didn't attempt to understand it). While I definitely enjoy trying to mechanically solve a game, I have no false impression that such is doable D1 nor do I think it's possible from the card distribution. Rather, I wanted
1) to talk and feel smart and have fun speculating
2) encourage folk who are dying to reveal their cards, so that (late-game) the Town has enough info to maybe get the tipping point of evidence for or against someone
That is, I think the cards are one small bit of info, but we can't afford to having dying Townies keep that info hidden.



I want to move my vote off though because then it'll seem like I was placing a distancing vote on Rogan and jumped off when it became a real wagon, so I am committed now I guess. I just want my vote to be noted as the first vote on the wagon and for silly D1 reasons that weren't meant to start something serious.

EDIT: Also there have been several posts that give more information than I think people realize because if talking about your preferences in light of your discard can give information about choices you *didn't* have and thus limit the roles you then *do* have.

I wouldn't find it necessarily suspicious if you moved your vote. It was clearly a D1 random/joke poke (or distancing.)
Now, if Rogan flips baddie, you look a bit like a scumbuddy if you moved your vote, but, well,... yeah. I get why you don't want to move your vote.

To your EDIT: this gives you some towncred in my eyes. The baddies would want people talking about this more and not draw it to the Town's attention.

[Valmark]

Not really. There is a lot of speculation around the cards which, aside from the fact that it's not alignment telling (speculating), I do not find particularly worthy without knowing the card distribution- for all we know a couple people could've gotten all the werewolf cards, as an example (I haven't checked the list of discards to see if this specific example is actually possible).

There were also a lot of messages that were posted while I was sleeping which I still need to reread now that I'm not sleepy- including the math stuff which I think isn't wrong but I was too out of it after waking up to really check it (assuming I even know enough to do that).

[rogue_alchemist]

No strong reason, but
- he's a skilled player, and since most (or probably at least half) folk are baddies, seems probable he's a baddie and he's not someone I'd want against me
- he isn't a newish player
- he was in the last couple games
- he didn't die early last game
- I didn't want to play into the usual "lynch AV or lynch Xi because they're usually evil cliche"

I admit I hadn't really looked at what powers were discarded, just alignment, at that point. If I had, I may have voted someone else.

---

Xi didn't claim cult, but she also explicitly isn't claiming not-cult. Which kinda makes me lean cult on her
Still, fair point about the alien sightings in Transylvania, so I'm willing to leave her be :smalltongue:

I'm inclined to either believe bladescape's Town Vig claim (was it really a claim?) or see what happens with it if it's a lie.
Either way, I don't feel inclined to vote them today.

I am surprised at how little response there's been to a <whatever you'd call what Xi said> and a vig claim early D1. If either turn out to be non-Town, the non-response of those who had been active might be telling.



I admit it's all rather unfounded speculation, as I presume Captain Cap's mathemancy shows (I didn't attempt to understand it). While I definitely enjoy trying to mechanically solve a game, I have no false impression that such is doable D1 nor do I think it's possible from the card distribution. Rather, I wanted
1) to talk and feel smart and have fun speculating
2) encourage folk who are dying to reveal their cards, so that (late-game) the Town has enough info to maybe get the tipping point of evidence for or against someone
That is, I think the cards are one small bit of info, but we can't afford to having dying Townies keep that info hidden.




I wouldn't find it necessarily suspicious if you moved your vote. It was clearly a D1 random/joke poke (or distancing.)
Now, if Rogan flips baddie, you look a bit like a scumbuddy if you moved your vote, but, well,... yeah. I get why you don't want to move your vote.

To your EDIT: this gives you some towncred in my eyes. The baddies would want people talking about this more and not draw it to the Town's attention.

I agree that people who are about to be lynched (and I'm talking like 1 hour away from EOD) should reveal their cards. If it is a close tie, I don't know that both should reveal, but hopefully that won't happen. Cap's mathemancy didn't really come to a conclusion besides math is hard and can't be applied rigorously to this specific instance of this game with the little info we have (which is true). The conclusion being that no one should try to ferret out who is who based on discard (which is generally true), but short of someone making some major mistakes and admitting their evil intentions, we don't have anything better to go on.

Yea the whole flipping issue is my worry, but I can't control what happens. As it gets closer I'll decide if there is another viable wagon to switch to that looks more scummy.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I am surprised at how little response there's been to a <whatever you'd call what Xi said> and a vig claim early D1. If either turn out to be non-Town, the non-response of those who had been active might be telling.


I tend not to worry too much about Xi claiming to be evil (though, as of last game my reads of Xi are not necessarily on point) and blade could be just as much drawing attention for another reason outside of being a vig. Not sure how speculating blade's possible role really helps town.



Analysis of last game - there were 15 players, no cult, fewer role types (no communicative). Unavenger confirmed that there are different numbers of cards per alignment. Not sure how indicative it is of this game but wanted to take a look for myself.



Chosen Alignment is the alignment that the player chose, their shown card is called Discard, and the privately discarded card they took the Role from is called Chosen Role



Chosen Alignment
Discard
Chosen Role


Town
Town
Town


Town
Town
Town


Werewolf
Mafia
Town


Town
Town
Town


Werewolf
Town
Town


Werewolf
Town
Town


Werewolf
Town
Survivor


Alien
Town
Town


Town
Mafia
Town


Alien
Town
Town


Serial Killer
Town
Town


Town
Mafia
Town


Town
Town
Mafia


Alien
Town
Town


Alien
Town
Town




15 players / 45 cards

31 Town Cards
4 Mafia Cards
4 Werewolf Cards
4 Alien Cards
1 Serial Killer Card
1 Survivor Card

6 Town players
4 Werewolf players
4 Alien players
1 Serial Killer player

3 players publicly discarded a faction (mafia) -- (of those players, 2 chose town, 1 chose wolves)
1 player privately discarded a faction (mafia) -- (that player chose town)

3 players got three town cards
10 players got two town cards and one non-town card -- (of those players, 7 chose the non-town faction)
2 players got two non-town cards -- (chose Werewolf over Survivor and Werewolf over Mafia)







Votes:

Rogan (4): rogue_alchemist, totadileplayz, bladescape, Aventine
Xihirli (1): AvatarVecna
Apogee1 (1): JeenLeen
Valmark (3): Book Wombat, Elenna, Xihirli
Book Wombat (1): Snowblaze
Snowblaze (1): Bathatcat
flat_footed (4): Caerulea, CaoimhinTheCape, MornShine, Rogan
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Valmark
Aventine (1): Captain Cap

No Votes: Apogee1, EmmyNecromancer, gac3
No Posts: flat_footed

[Captain Cap]

I'm inclined to either believe bladescape's Town Vig claim (was it really a claim?) or see what happens with it if it's a lie.
Either way, I don't feel inclined to vote them today.

I am surprised at how little response there's been to a <whatever you'd call what Xi said> and a vig claim early D1. If either turn out to be non-Town, the non-response of those who had been active might be telling.

I tend not to worry too much about Xi claiming to be evil (though, as of last game my reads of Xi are not necessarily on point) and blade could be just as much drawing attention for another reason outside of being a vig. Not sure how speculating blade's possible role really helps town.
I might have missed bladescape's claim (there were so many new posts this morning...), but I agree with CaoimhinTheCape: there's not much to say or do about it for now.

[Xihirli]

Bladescape has heavily implied being town killing. I have only claimed to have gotten a cult card, and have made no comment on whether I used it to get a role and/or power. It has been pointed out that, were I to choose to be cult, killing might be the best power I could want on that side since there's no risk of friendly fire and cult needs a way to deal with targets that can't be converted. So I think it's reasonable to conclude that the only reason I would discard Town Killing on the Cult's team from a pure strategic standpoint would be that I drew two killing cards.

That said, there's another standpoint, and that is that I know I'm playing a game and want everyone to enjoy it so that we have this many players in later games. And the more kills in the game, the more chance that somebody's full game experience is making a random vote D1 and then dying before they can do anything interesting. So perhaps I would refuse to add another kill role to the game on principal, rather than for any strategic reason.

[Rogan]

Blade stated he had a chance to be town vig in response to my vote for discarding Seer.
I thought about some implications, but decided that there was nothing really conclusive, so I didn't formulate my thoughts to post them.

- - - Updated - - -


So I think it's reasonable to conclude that the only reason I would discard Town Killing on the Cult's team from a pure strategic standpoint would be that I drew two killing cards.


I'm not sure about this, but I think Unavanger said in recruitment that no player would be offered the same roles twice.
But this was in an answer about the universal backup. Maybe only specific combinations of powers would be forbidden.

[Apogee1]

Reading too much into what people select just makes it easier for wolf/maf/cult/alien/sk to figure out who the cops and vig's are.

I'd be interested in seeing why flat-footed didn't take protective, but in my own experience a doc in this kind of game is both boring and pretty useless for town.

Aventine are you referring to this as "me immediately reading into discards after advising against it"

Think you've missed the point, which is that I've also discarded town protective, so the interest here is more ... academic I guess? than in a reads sense.

[Batcathat]

I'm not sure about this, but I think Unavanger said in recruitment that no player would be offered the same roles twice.

I was thinking that too, but I went back over the rules and couldn't find it so I thought I might've imagined it. Unless we both did, I guess maybe Unavenger said it in response to a question?

[Apogee1]

Oh I didn't even realize. Captain Cap also discarded town protective, Flat-footed discarded werewolf protective.

Anyways.

[Rogan]

I was thinking that too, but I went back over the rules and couldn't find it so I thought I might've imagined it. Unless we both did, I guess maybe Unavenger said it in response to a question?



I'm not sure about this, but I think Unavanger said in recruitment that no player would be offered the same roles twice.
But this was in an answer about the universal backup. Maybe only specific combinations of powers would be forbidden.

Geez, you have to read the whole post :tongue:
But I admit, I don't remember exactly where and what was said. If you think it is important, I can go back and search for the thing.

[rogue_alchemist]

I tend not to worry too much about Xi claiming to be evil (though, as of last game my reads of Xi are not necessarily on point) and blade could be just as much drawing attention for another reason outside of being a vig. Not sure how speculating blade's possible role really helps town.



Analysis of last game - there were 15 players, no cult, fewer role types (no communicative). Unavenger confirmed that there are different numbers of cards per alignment. Not sure how indicative it is of this game but wanted to take a look for myself.



Chosen Alignment is the alignment that the player chose, their shown card is called Discard, and the privately discarded card they took the Role from is called Chosen Role



Chosen Alignment
Discard
Chosen Role


Town
Town
Town


Town
Town
Town


Werewolf
Mafia
Town


Town
Town
Town


Werewolf
Town
Town


Werewolf
Town
Town


Werewolf
Town
Survivor


Alien
Town
Town


Town
Mafia
Town


Alien
Town
Town


Serial Killer
Town
Town


Town
Mafia
Town


Town
Town
Mafia


Alien
Town
Town


Alien
Town
Town




15 players / 45 cards

31 Town Cards
4 Mafia Cards
4 Werewolf Cards
4 Alien Cards
1 Serial Killer Card
1 Survivor Card

6 Town players
4 Werewolf players
4 Alien players
1 Serial Killer player

3 players publicly discarded a faction (mafia) -- (of those players, 2 chose town, 1 chose wolves)
1 player privately discarded a faction (mafia) -- (that player chose town)

3 players got three town cards
10 players got two town cards and one non-town card -- (of those players, 7 chose the non-town faction)
2 players got two non-town cards -- (chose Werewolf over Survivor and Werewolf over Mafia)







Votes:

Rogan (4): rogue_alchemist, totadileplayz, bladescape, Aventine
Xihirli (1): AvatarVecna
Apogee1 (1): JeenLeen
Valmark (3): Book Wombat, Elenna, Xihirli
Book Wombat (1): Snowblaze
Snowblaze (1): Bathatcat
flat_footed (4): Caerulea, CaoimhinTheCape, MornShine, Rogan
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Valmark
Aventine (1): Captain Cap

No Votes: Apogee1, EmmyNecromancer, gac3
No Posts: flat_footed

this analysis from last game shows that my intuition about at least more baddies hiding in the town discard than in the baddie discard pile has some empirical evidence to support it (even if it is statistically unlikely in the long term). I am glad to see that my intuition and gut feelings have some merit at least. I am also glad to see that there are 3 viable wagons being build, though until flat_footed actually posts, I can't say much 1 way or the other about who should get lynched. I agree that discarding helpful town roles looks suspicious, but I also know Val is a good enough player to make almost any role helpful for town if they so chose, so they may have gone for something that was a bit of a challenge or otherwise interesting to them, just for the novelty of it. We have have about 26 more hours until EOD, so I am not changing votes yet, but I am on the lookout for a better target.

[Apogee1]

I am also uncomfortable having made a silly vote on Rogan about the Deutsche Bahn and it now being the leading wagon. I don't want to move my vote off though because then it'll seem like I was placing a distancing vote on Rogan and jumped off when it became a real wagon, so I am committed now I guess. I just want my vote to be noted as the first vote on the wagon and for silly D1 reasons that weren't meant to start something serious.


rogue_alchemist

Think this is a rather wolfy (or maf/cult/alien/whatever) way to approach d1 voting and "how you look".

[Rogan]

Geez, you have to read the whole post :tongue:
But I admit, I don't remember exactly where and what was said. If you think it is important, I can go back and search for the thing.

Found it. Some more words


So, you're looking at a situation where you get, say, Serial Killer Killing, Town Universal Backup and Mafia Universal Backup, then pitches Town UB and chooses SK from the first card and UB from the third? There are two answers: one, I'm currently dealing out cards in a way that you're duplicate-protected so that you'll never get two of the same role type. Two, if I dropped that duplicate protection and you did get a situation like that, you'd get the role that's actually on your card: Serial Killer Strongman.

[Batcathat]

Geez, you have to read the whole post :tongue:

Heh, my bad. Somehow I even read the last sentence of your post, I literally only skipped the most important part. A great sign for my future in the game, I'm sure. :smalltongue:

[Rogan]

Heh, my bad. Somehow I even read the last sentence of your post, I literally only skipped the most important part. A great sign for my future in the game, I'm sure. :smalltongue:

Don't worry, I am not willing to kill you on day 1 (again) :wink:

[totadileplayz]

If we're doing walls I'll add my own little wall on initial gut reads...

-I think rogue_alchemist's FOS only really makes a lot of sense if you're not expecting many people to draw multiple town cards. Potential slip that he didn't.

-AV voting for Xihirli for discarding a killing role. It feels like something that could actually be spun into a wagon on Xi without actually being a reason to suspect Xi of being scum. Sorta feels like testing the water with a possible mislynch wagon that can reasonably easily be played off as a joke if AV needs to dodge blowback.

-JeenLeen's big numbers post triggers my "trying to look like solvey without doing anything really helpful to solving" sense slightly.



Why do you doubt that specifically?

-Apogee advises against reading into what people selected, then proceeded to do exactly that (and in a wishy-washy way too).
Because they are the more powerful scum teams. They are in my eyes the most likely to be ones in my view if someone were to choose scum they'd likely choose one of those if they have them. The only situation where I'd expect someone to have discarded one of those teams if we go on the basis that it's unlikely someone has two alien or two cult cards then the only way for them to be scum would be if they chose the other scum faction over alien or cult. And I really don't see why someone would prefer werewolf or mafia over alien or cult. In a toss-up situation between those teams it's possible for them to choose say alien over cult, or cult over alien and dismiss the other cards ability causing a similar situation as hiding behind one but I believe that the overall situation is less likely then scum hiding behind a different card.

[Snowblaze]

Present but too tired to do much. A couple of points:

- bladescape is making me paranoid but I think that happens regardless of his alignment

- rogue_alchemist, I think the sample size for scum discards in that game is too small to support your theory

- wait, since when was flat_footed a wagon? Has he even posted yet? (No.)

[rogue_alchemist]

Present but too tired to do much. A couple of points:

- bladescape is making me paranoid but I think that happens regardless of his alignment

- rogue_alchemist, I think the sample size for scum discards in that game is too small to support your theory

- wait, since when was flat_footed a wagon? Has he even posted yet? (No.)

flat_footed was the first wagon (more than 2 votes) to "poke" him to get a response. But people have continued to pile on, and while he may not be a tied lead wagon, he is 1 vote off. He is tied for the lead wagon, I got him and Val confused, sorry.

[Snowblaze]

I was just expressing my surprise, rogue_alchemist, not actually looking for an answer.

In other news, I'm realising I don't like Rogan's flat_footed vote. There's no acknowledgement of the wagon or the fact that it could be considered self preservation, and the actual reasoning... is a) quite a stretch and b) why are you hunting for the serial killer, who really isn't that much of a threat on day one (if there even is one) over the far-more-dangerous scum factions?

[Valmark]

Because they are the more powerful scum teams. They are in my eyes the most likely to be ones in my view if someone were to choose scum they'd likely choose one of those if they have them. The only situation where I'd expect someone to have discarded one of those teams if we go on the basis that it's unlikely someone has two alien or two cult cards then the only way for them to be scum would be if they chose the other scum faction over alien or cult. And I really don't see why someone would prefer werewolf or mafia over alien or cult. In a toss-up situation between those teams it's possible for them to choose say alien over cult, or cult over alien and dismiss the other cards ability causing a similar situation as hiding behind one but I believe that the overall situation is less likely then scum hiding behind a different card.

Do consider that the aliens don't have a factional kill while the cultists' 'kill' works only on townies (unless that rule changed from previous Idea games)- those both are reasons to prefer other factions.

[totadileplayz]

Do consider that the aliens don't have a factional kill while the cultists' 'kill' works only on townies (unless that rule changed from previous Idea games)- those both are reasons to prefer other factions.

Yes, however there are possibilities for there to be a killing role on either faction. While a killer as a werewolf or mafia is just a brute.

[Captain Cap]

Yes, however there are possibilities for there to be a killing role on either faction. While a killer as a werewolf or mafia is just a brute.
But they're just possibilities, not a given. Not only werewolves/mafia are guaranteed to have a night kill, but they have an unlimited supply (until they die off, at least), and the possibility to have an unblockable killer can be a nice boon.

[MornShine]

In other news, I'm realising I don't like Rogan's flat_footed vote. There's no acknowledgement of the wagon or the fact that it could be considered self preservation, and the actual reasoning... is a) quite a stretch and b) why are you hunting for the serial killer, who really isn't that much of a threat on day one (if there even is one) over the far-more-dangerous scum factions?

Rogan did, actually.


Agree about the first part. The second part... nope. I picked my vote as soon as the discards were online. After all, why would I wait for a QT when I had three crappy town cards? I even was close to posting too soon, but luckily I noticed the change of starting time.

@Elenna
Do you want to say some more about your reason for discarding Investigative?

@flat-footed
Are you the serial killer (or the survivor)?
If my memory does not mislead me, you were more concerned about staying alive than investigating things last match. Now you discard a protective role. So you might have a faction with inbuilt protection. You are also the second biggest wagon and I want to stay alive

As for why, I agree that we should aim for the more dangerous factions, but this seems like the best reasoning by virtue of nothing else being very good either? I could be persuaded to aim for the not-quite-claiming-cult, I suppose.

[EmmyNecromancer]

The other two cards that I claim to have received include a cult JOAT card and a Town Tracking card. I think the Town JOAT role is more fun than the Cult tracking imo, so I claim to combine those cards and become a Town JOAT. It kind of reminds me of my role in TOS SFM 82 (rip tosfm).

[Captain Cap]

I think the Town JOAT role is more fun than the Cult tracking imo
What about a Cult Roleblocking?

[Rogan]

In other news, I'm realising I don't like Rogan's flat_footed vote. There's no acknowledgement of the wagon or the fact that it could be considered self preservation, and the actual reasoning... is a) quite a stretch and b) why are you hunting for the serial killer, who really isn't that much of a threat on day one (if there even is one) over the far-more-dangerous scum factions?


Rogan did, actually.

As for why, I agree that we should aim for the more dangerous factions, but this seems like the best reasoning by virtue of nothing else being very good either? I could be persuaded to aim for the not-quite-claiming-cult, I suppose.

So, first af all, I will likely change my vote again unless ff remains a big target by claiming serial killer or something. It's some poking at things I can make guesses for. I agree in principle that the cult should be the first priority to root out. But I specifically don't want to lynch Xi day 1. She is one of the usual suspects and getting her killed would be boring.
I don't think there are other solid cult suspects. So I am going for someone who might be another baddy. However, there is enough time for flat to reply and votes to shift and change.
Any more questions?



The other two cards that I claim to have received include a cult JOAT card and a Town Tracking card. I think the Town JOAT role is more fun than the Cult tracking imo, so I claim to combine those cards and become a Town JOAT. It kind of reminds me of my role in TOS SFM 82 (rip tosfm).

Emmy, is there a reason for your claim? It seems to be quite early, especially without pressure?

[EmmyNecromancer]

Emmy, is there a reason for your claim? It seems to be quite early, especially without pressure?
Rogan, I just wanted to get this claim off my chest.

[Rogan]

I'll jump on the Rogan wagon for now


If we're doing walls I'll add my own little wall on initial gut reads...

-I think rogue_alchemist's FOS only really makes a lot of sense if you're not expecting many people to draw multiple town cards. Potential slip that he didn't.

-AV voting for Xihirli for discarding a killing role. It feels like something that could actually be spun into a wagon on Xi without actually being a reason to suspect Xi of being scum. Sorta feels like testing the water with a possible mislynch wagon that can reasonably easily be played off as a joke if AV needs to dodge blowback.

-JeenLeen's big numbers post triggers my "trying to look like solvey without doing anything really helpful to solving" sense slightly.

-Apogee advises against reading into what people selected, then proceeded to do exactly that (and in a wishy-washy way too).

I was looking for something else, but noticed this... A vote for me, with no explanation at all for why I am suspicious. Not in the vote post, not in the wall post. I really don't like it...


I must not fakeclaim cultist for the lulz.

I must not fakeclaim cultist for the lulz.

I must not fakeclaim cultist for the lulz.


...I actually agree with Rogan on not killing Xihirli today. Though that doesn’t stop me making a mental note of a potential partnership between those two.

Speaking of Valmark’s first post the “I don’t think we should put too much stock into what was said in recruitment” is a valid point but also kind of non-commital. And a soft defence of Rogan.

Can certain people who should not be named please stop speculating about who might have what power in public?

Valid point on Rogan/Elenna, though probably turns into WIFOM if you think about too deeply (but Rogan would know doing that calls attention to Elenna so wouldn’t do that as Elenna’s partner... etc.)



Why would you fake a cult claim? Is there any special history of you as cult I am not aware of?

Wow, I surely have many potential allies. Good to know.

One last, important question... If we should not discuss powers in public, where should town discuss them? Or do you want your allies to shut up in public, so you can discuss them in private, in your factional chat?

[Batcathat]

Emmy, is there a reason for your claim? It seems to be quite early, especially without pressure?

Well, claiming early did work out for her last game, though I don't really see how it'd work out as well with her alleged current role as it did last time.

[Rogan]

Rogan, I just wanted to get this claim off my chest.

You claimed early last game as well. Is this your habit of yours?
Not meant as a criticism, I am just curious.

[JeenLeen]

It does seem odd for someone to claim for now reason so early, but I can see claiming (or fakeclaiming) JOAT for a few reasons.
One main reason is that I would think most baddies would consider it a relatively weak Role. Especially with so many bad factions, it's unlikely the 1-shot investigative power will hit one's own.
Another reason is that, having a 1-shot protective ability, means there's the question of if she's going to bane herself. Usual WIFOM about if she will or won't, but often that can deflect a kill away from oneself for at least N1. Which, although not really a good town move, is a move that 'makes sense' from a personal perspective (e.g., you want to stay in the game, not die N1).

So I can see wisdom in making this claim, whether it's true or not, even if someone is Town.
Of course, it's also a relatively safe fakeclaim. Kinda deflects others from killing you tonight, and you can't be asked to repeat your actions to verify you aren't lying.

- - - Updated - - -

My thoughts might be incorrect due to bias. I think I'd find JOAT an unsatisfying power, so my projection of those feelings might bias my read.

[Captain Cap]

One last, important question... If we should not discuss powers in public, where should town discuss them? Or do you want your allies to shut up in public, so you can discuss them in private, in your factional chat?
The only roles that would truly benefit from being known by all town are the information gathering ones, and that when there's at least some info to share. Right now, having such a role revealed would just put a big target on the player without giving anything to town (and we're in a game with multiple night kills and no assurance of protection), so I'd say keeping quiet and waiting for interesting results is a good strategy.


My thoughts might be incorrect due to bias. I think I'd find JOAT an unsatisfying power, so my projection of those feelings might bias my read.
I actually like JOAT. I think its versatility is often overlooked, and I personally find more fun not being locked in a single role.

[Rogan]

The only roles that would truly benefit from being known by all town are the information gathering ones, and that when there's at least some info to share. Right now, having such a role revealed would just put a big target on the player without giving anything to town (and we're in a game with multiple night kills and no assurance of protection), so I'd say keeping quiet and waiting for interesting results is a good strategy.


I actually like JOAT. I think its versatility is often overlooked, and I personally find more fun not being locked in a single role.

I would think every role known would be an advantage for town? At least in an all power game like this. You need to know who you want to target, after all and what a given result means. And it helps the town vig to avoid the seer

I couldn't stand wasting my one use of a given power for no return, so I discarded JOAT.
I can see the advantages, but I would like to avoid getting mad

- - - Updated - - -

Oh, and I mainly took notice of the specific wording. Don't discuss them in public

[Captain Cap]

I would think every role known would be an advantage for town? At least in an all power game like this. You need to know who you want to target, after all and what a given result means. And it helps the town vig to avoid the seer

Vigs, doctors and roleblockers can easily operate in "silence" and communicatives have means to prove their towniness of their own, so I don't see why they should risk revealing themselves publicly.
Avoiding getting shot by a vig (already statistically unlikely, unless we're somehow full of gun-wielding cowboys) is a small comfort when you draw the attention of every scum faction in the game.

- - - Updated - - -



Oh, and I mainly took notice of the specific wording. Don't discuss them in public
Mmm... this is actually a good point. Why would a town specify "in public" in a game without QTs unless related to powers or factions?

[JeenLeen]

I got a little confused about how the quoting and referencing went.
Who originally wrote the "in public" that is being potentially thought to be a scum slip of the tongue?

---

flat_footed usually comes out and talks when he's close to lynch. I'm curious to see what happens as it nears day's end tomorrow.
It does seem odd that a wagon formed on him with little defense, but not like there's anything to defend when he hasn't posted yet.

[Captain Cap]

Can certain people who should not be named please stop speculating about who might have what power in public?

There could seriously be a double layer here. What if some player's scumbuddies are talking a bit too much, risking to expose themselves, and you can't communicate with them privately during day? The player could try to to pass a message writing it as an innocent public plea, but at the same time they would want the scumbuddies to be aware that the message is targeted to them without actually giving names. Something like "certain people who should not be named" seems good enough: it doesn't specify a recipient (so it can easily pass as a message directed to anyone) and it's definitely a peculiar form, highlighted no less (to better draw the attention of specific players). But for the hypothetic baddie, public posting is not the only available form of communication, and while writing the message they might subconsciously let the specification "in public" slip.

[JeenLeen]

I just realized a big boon of this game: we know all the players are participating, at least in that they picked cards. Otherwise, someone would have died during Setup.
I get being busy with real life, so not calling any suspicion on those being quiet. But it's good to know it's not that anyone ghosted or missed the game-start.

[rogue_alchemist]

I just realized a big boon of this game: we know all the players are participating, at least in that they picked cards. Otherwise, someone would have died during Setup.
I get being busy with real life, so not calling any suspicion on those being quiet. But it's good to know it's not that anyone ghosted or missed the game-start.

Well gac seemed to have gotten the qt message (to pick roles), but not realize there was a game thread until a while after game start. So theoretically someone could pick and still not realize where the game thread is, but gac tried to remedy that.

[totadileplayz]

Can I just say standard practice should be that the mafia game is linked in recruitment full stop?

[gac3]

Can I just say standard practice should be that the mafia game is linked in recruitment full stop?

That's what I was waiting for but then decided maybe I should check. How much time left in the day? I'm still not fully caught up.

[Batcathat]

That's what I was waiting for but then decided maybe I should check. How much time left in the day? I'm still not fully caught up.

About 20 hours from now, I think.

[Valmark]

Can I just say standard practice should be that the mafia game is linked in recruitment full stop?


That's what I was waiting for but then decided maybe I should check. How much time left in the day? I'm still not fully caught up.

To be fair it was linked, people just missed it (at least when Unavenger linked it).

I think it was missed, anyway.

[gac3]

Can I just say standard practice should be that the mafia game is linked in recruitment full stop?


To be fair it was linked, people just missed it (at least when Unavenger linked it).

I think it was missed, anyway.

I completely missed it. Even when I went to see if it was there before posting my link. I mean that's on me but yes, I have since confirmed that it was there.

[Elenna]

Given how the results depend on Q, P(B1), P(B2), P(B3), it's definitely false that in general a player discarding town is more likely a baddie (the fact I used certain assumptions, if we agree their reasonable, doesn't really affect this conclusion, given a specific case is enough to prove something isn't generally true).
I'm not sure I agree with your assumptions, necessarily, but thinking about it some more I do agree with your general point that we can't conclude that people who discarded town are necessarily more likely to be non-town.

Actually, thinking about an extreme case, if you assume people will always pick non-town if they have the chance, then that would mean that all the people who discarded non-town must be non-town (since we know they had the chance to be non-town).

Of course, that's an extreme case that we know is not always true, but it does illustrate the general point.


@Elenna
Do you want to say some more about your reason for discarding Investigative?

I picked a different role that I thought would be more fun/less stressful for me than playing town seer and trying to breadcrumb my results in a no-PM game.


I am surprised at how little response there's been to a <whatever you'd call what Xi said> and a vig claim early D1. If either turn out to be non-Town, the non-response of those who had been active might be telling.
Honestly I thought bladescape was joking about the vig claim. Maybe I misread that. *shrug*


Rather, I wanted
1) to talk and feel smart and have fun speculating
2) encourage folk who are dying to reveal their cards, so that (late-game) the Town has enough info to maybe get the tipping point of evidence for or against someone
That is, I think the cards are one small bit of info, but we can't afford to having dying Townies keep that info hidden.
Eh, I'm not sure how helpful card reveals could be when we don't know the total number of any cards. Not really sure how we would use that info. Plus the majority of players are probably non-town and would presumably just lie.
(Also, if there is a way to use that info, I think it might be easier for non-town factions to use, because they have extra info about their own roles. I'm thinking about Percy Jackson WW, where the wolves figured out several roles earlier than the non-networked townies, because wolves could eliminate possibilities based on knowing the wolves' roles.)


The other two cards that I claim to have received include a cult JOAT card and a Town Tracking card. I think the Town JOAT role is more fun than the Cult tracking imo, so I claim to combine those cards and become a Town JOAT. It kind of reminds me of my role in TOS SFM 82 (rip tosfm).
I'm a little weirded out by the early claim, but it did work out for Emmy last game, so maybe she's trying the same thing again? Or maybe she's trying the same thing again but with a fake claim...


Oh, and I mainly took notice of the specific wording. Don't discuss them in public
Hmmm good point. Snowblaze, any comments on this?

[bladescape]

Present but too tired to do much. A couple of points:

- bladescape is making me paranoid but I think that happens regardless of his alignment

I am definitely town. Yeah. Totally. You shouldn't be paranoid of me.


Honestly I thought bladescape was joking about the vig claim. Maybe I misread that. *shrug*

The intent is to make people wonder if I am or not.

Am I joking?

Also rogue_alchemist or Rogan for me

[Aventine]

Reading too much into what people select just makes it easier for wolf/maf/cult/alien/sk to figure out who the cops and vig's are.

I'd be interested in seeing why flat-footed didn't take protective, but in my own experience a doc in this kind of game is both boring and pretty useless for town.

Aventine are you referring to this as "me immediately reading into discards after advising against it"

Think you've missed the point, which is that I've also discarded town protective, so the interest here is more ... academic I guess? than in a reads sense.

Doesn't matter to me whether your interest is "academic" or in "a reads sense." Why draw attention to his choice if trying to analyze the choice helps scum? If you were really just curious you could've just waited until after the game to ask, why bring it up at all?




I am also uncomfortable having made a silly vote on Rogan about the Deutsche Bahn and it now being the leading wagon. I don't want to move my vote off though because then it'll seem like I was placing a distancing vote on Rogan and jumped off when it became a real wagon, so I am committed now I guess. I just want my vote to be noted as the first vote on the wagon and for silly D1 reasons that weren't meant to start something serious.
rogue_alchemist

Think this is a rather wolfy (or maf/cult/alien/whatever) way to approach d1 voting and "how you look".

Agreed that that is not a great way to approach things, but why would scum ever admit to doing so? This is the lowest of low-hanging fruit.



Also rogue_alchemist or Rogan for me

Unless my count is off you took Rogan out of being the leading wagon (they were tied, but Rogan got to the number first) by switching off of him, but have him as one of two you'd want to go after? Oddly incongruous. I'm fine with pressure on flat at the moment, but what you're saying here isn't lining up with what you're doing.

[Xihirli]

AvatarVecna has been uncharacteristically quiet. Anything to comment, AV?

[bladescape]

Unless my count is off you took Rogan out of being the leading wagon (they were tied, but Rogan got to the number first) by switching off of him, but have him as one of two you'd want to go after? Oddly incongruous. I'm fine with pressure on flat at the moment, but what you're saying here isn't lining up with what you're doing.

Imagine wanting to pressure multiple people rather than deathtunnel one person on a weak d1 read. :smalltongue:

- - - Updated - - -


AvatarVecna has been uncharacteristically quiet. Anything to comment, AV?

Actually agree with this. Last game AV was quibbling with me over my weak d1 reads and providing over-analysis.

[JeenLeen]

Switching my vote mainly to get discussion going, with another person on a close wagon.
Valmark.

Would someone do the date conversion and let me know, roughly, what time Eastern USA D1 should end?
I think I'll be active around day's end, but might not if it's morning my time.

[gac3]

Switching my vote mainly to get discussion going, with another person on a close wagon.
Valmark.

Would someone do the date conversion and let me know, roughly, what time Eastern USA D1 should end?
I think I'll be active around day's end, but might not if it's morning my time.

If what BAtcathat said was accurate, 2pm

[Aventine]

Imagine wanting to pressure multiple people rather than deathtunnel one person on a weak d1 read. :smalltongue:

Imagine trying to act like that was a pressure vote.


I will, however, add actual pressure onto Valmark since flat seems unlikely to show up and at this point I'd rather have a chance of getting something useful.

[AvatarVecna]

AvatarVecna has been uncharacteristically quiet. Anything to comment, AV?

Not really. I'm a bit salty about the previous game, I'm here to be a buffer between town and losing. If I find the mental energy to actually contribute and think it might actually make a difference, I might even do some serious analysis.

[bladescape]

Imagine trying to act like that was a pressure vote.


I will, however, add actual pressure onto Valmark since flat seems unlikely to show up and at this point I'd rather have a chance of getting something useful.

Wait, you mean I can't vote active people to pressure them and see how they respond to get towntells?

Damn, I guess I'm doing it all wrong.

[Aventine]

Wait, you mean I can't vote active people to pressure them and see how they respond to get towntells?

Damn, I guess I'm doing it all wrong.

Yeah, I'm sure rogue is quaking in his boots under all the pressure of...having half the votes of the leading wagon.

[bladescape]

Yeah, I'm sure rogue is quaking in his boots under all the pressure of...having half the votes of the leading wagon.

I forgot I'm not allowed to start wagons that don't already have other people on them.

[Aventine]

Ah, I see.

I too often try to start new wagons and then forget to give any sort of reasoning whatsoever why people should join my new wagon. Definitely a reasonable thing to do and a great way to build a big, strong wagon.

[Batcathat]

If what BAtcathat said was accurate, 2pm

I don't like how I'm treated as any sort of authority on the matter. :smalltongue: But yeah, I think that's right.

Speaking of the end of day, I should probably move my vote somewhere useful (or at least less random). Out of the current wagons, I'm leaning towards Rogan but that's mostly a feeling so I'm open to a good argument.

[Captain Cap]

VOTE COUNT:

Rogan (3): rogue_alchemist, totadileplayz, Bathatcat
Xihirli (1): AvatarVecna
Valmark (5): Book Wombat, Elenna, Xihirli, JeenLeen, Aventine
Book Wombat (1): Snowblaze
flat_footed (4): Caerulea, CaoimhinTheCape, MornShine, Rogan
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Valmark
Aventine (1): Captain Cap
rogue_alchemist (2): Apogee1, bladescape

No Votes: EmmyNecromancer, gac3
No Posts: flat_footed




I will, however, add actual pressure onto Valmark since flat seems unlikely to show up and at this point I'd rather have a chance of getting something useful.
Honestly, Aventine, from your voting pattern you appear more concerned about protecting flat_footed than anything else.

The moment Rogan wagon reaches flat_footed, you put the tie-breaker vote on Rogan without explanation.

The, when Rogan wagon loses traction, the moment Valmark reaches flat_footed you once again break the tie.

[Snowblaze]

...Okay, I officially don't get how "stop speculating about who might have what power in public" can be seen as a slip. I don't remember why exactly I used that wording because it was a single line in a wall I made a day ago. The "persons who will not be named" phrasing is a reference to Rogan's post saying Xihirli could have been softing watcher, which was probably the main one I was referring to. (The other was bladescape's semi-claim.)

Other stuff:

Oops, note to self to check for white text more thoroughly in future. Also MornShine/Rogan w/w?*

Emmy's claim is... probably town even though I don't think that was the right time to make it.

Aventine has a tendency to jump on wagons without giving much reasoning so I don't think it's particularly AI for them.

I spent large parts of my time alive in the original Crazy Idea fakeclaiming cultist for the lulz, and I mentioned it again when I'd just read Xihirli hinting at possibly being cult.

I... actually agree with bladescape's intent to kill either Rogan or r_a today... unfortunately in a game with multiple scum factions I can't get a townread out of it.

Aventine/r_a w/w?*

Also Aventine, I don't really see how "I'm fine with pressure on flat at the moment" fits with what you're saying to bladescape, who iirc hasn't even mentioned flat_footed. Explain, please?

I'm not opposed to a Valmark wagon, but nor do I much like the rapid hopping on of Aventine and Jeen.

I'll decide where to put my vote later since I'll actually be around today.

*Don't take my pre-flip associatives too seriously. I am, as bladescape says, memeing about the possibility.

- - - Updated - - -


VOTE COUNT:

Rogan (3): rogue_alchemist, totadileplayz, Bathatcat
Xihirli (1): AvatarVecna
Valmark (5): Book Wombat, Elenna, Xihirli, JeenLeen, Aventine
Book Wombat (1): Snowblaze
flat_footed (4): Caerulea, CaoimhinTheCape, MornShine, Rogan
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Valmark
Aventine (1): Captain Cap
rogue_alchemist (2): Apogee1, bladescape

No Votes: EmmyNecromancer, gac3
No Posts: flat_footed



Honestly, Aventine, from your voting pattern you appear more concerned about protecting flat_footed than anything else.

The moment Rogan wagon reaches flat_footed, you put the tie-breaker vote on Rogan without explanation.

The, when Rogan wagon loses traction, the moment Valmark reaches flat_footed you once again break the tie.

Good point. Aventine/flat_footed w/w?

Also can I get your thoughts on bladescape while you're here?

[Captain Cap]

Also can I get your thoughts on bladescape while you're here?
He plays around a bit, there doesn't seem to be a particular commitment behind his votes and, well... that I guess? At the moment I'm unable to read much into him.

- - - Updated - - -


...Okay, I officially don't get how "stop speculating about who might have what power in public" can be seen as a slip.
"In public" is the default setting for town discussions. Unless you're scum, there's no reason to specify it. I'm not saying it's definitely a slip, but it's a possibility.

[Batcathat]

Honestly, Aventine, from your voting pattern you appear more concerned about protecting flat_footed than anything else.

The moment Rogan wagon reaches flat_footed, you put the tie-breaker vote on Rogan without explanation.

The, when Rogan wagon loses traction, the moment Valmark reaches flat_footed you once again break the tie.

Interesting observation. One time's a coincidence, two times could definitely be a pattern.

- - - Updated - - -

I think that might qualify as the good argument I was requesting earlier, especially since if flat_footed flips scum, we get a new suspect free of charge.

[Aventine]

Honestly, Aventine, from your voting pattern you appear more concerned about protecting flat_footed than anything else.

The moment Rogan wagon reaches flat_footed, you put the tie-breaker vote on Rogan without explanation.

The, when Rogan wagon loses traction, the moment Valmark reaches flat_footed you once again break the tie.

I'm concerned with changing who is on the chopping block to see what happens. And based on what I remember from before, there is a good chance that flat isn't gonna show up to talk. I'd rather jump around and put pressure on multiple people then CFD flat rather than sit on him for a while and get nothing.

But yes, I am aware there is a data point pointing towards me and flat being scum-buddies. I just don't care.


I... actually agree with bladescape's intent to kill either Rogan or r_a today... unfortunately in a game with multiple scum factions I can't get a townread out of it.

Aventine/r_a w/w?*

Also Aventine, I don't really see how "I'm fine with pressure on flat at the moment" fits with what you're saying to bladescape, who iirc hasn't even mentioned flat_footed. Explain, please?

First point: blade's vote change made Rogan no longer the leading wagon. I, for one, don't read bladescape as having "intent to kill...Rogan." Especially since he himself has said he's pressuring rather than really wanting his targets dead. (A sensible attitude, even if I don't buy him being genuine at this point).

As for the second: my best guess on rogue is still that he drew two scum cards and took one (see here (https://forums.giantitp.com/showsinglepost.php?p=25115006&postcount=61)). Not a strong read, but where I am at. Not really sure how you get me and him as scum-buddies.

For the third: bladescape's vote change put flat as the leading wagon. I was pointing that out, and then saying I was ok with that. blade not mentioning flat was part of my point: he made flat the leading wagon without acknowledging doing so, and while suggesting he preferred voting for Rogan (while his vote change took Rogan off the chopping block).

[bladescape]

First point: blade's vote change made Rogan no longer the leading wagon. I, for one, don't read bladescape as having "intent to kill...Rogan." Especially since he himself has said he's pressuring rather than really wanting his targets dead. (A sensible attitude, even if I don't buy him being genuine at this point).

As for the second: my best guess on rogue is still that he drew two scum cards and took one (see here (https://forums.giantitp.com/showsinglepost.php?p=25115006&postcount=61)). Not a strong read, but where I am at. Not really sure how you get me and him as scum-buddies.

For the third: bladescape's vote change put flat as the leading wagon. I was pointing that out, and then saying I was ok with that. blade not mentioning flat was part of my point: he made flat the leading wagon without acknowledging doing so, and while suggesting he preferred voting for Rogan (while his vote change took Rogan off the chopping block).

Flat's lack of content means I don't care about him right now. If he gets lynched he doesn't do anything for town.

Literally would rather other people.

Join me on R_A and together we will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.

[Aventine]

Join me on R_A and together we will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.

Don't want to jump off Valmark until I get something. I did it once since I don't expect to get much from flat and willing to just shrug and CFD him, but I don't want to make letting people off the hook a habit.

Once Valmark shows up and gives some reads or something? Sure, I'll happily join you.

[bladescape]

Why hello people, I invite you all to the R_A train


FOS on everyone who discarded a town faction card. Especially Rogan because everyone knows you can set your watch by how punctual the Deutsche Bahn is! jajaja

Meme comment/vote but with a kinda counter-intuitive idea.


I thought about trying to do analysis like this. Most of what you say lines up with what I remember from last game, but with so many unknowns and the fact that the underlying mechanics get changed each time this is played, it felt moot to spell it out. I just struck with the traditional 'random' reason for a vote. Now I did narrow my vote down to those who had discarded town roles, as there are guaranteed *some* baddies in there, so seems pretty better than nothing, but picking Rogan out of the bunch is more of a fun poke at this point than a serious vote.

NAI


because the odds of that many people having all town cards is low, and the general consensus is that town is less fun as you don't have a group to talk with/plan with. With so many factions being town is also a lot harder, so I will guarantee that there is at least 1 baddie in the group that discarded town cards.

Gets called out on how people who discard Town aren't necessarily scum and defends it.


I asked Unavenger last time about the distribution of cards and they said that it is not even. So I think Cult will start with fewer, now there is also the choice element, so maybe instead of starting with 7 of each card cult only starts with 5, which would still be too many for normal balance, but assuming that some people will discard cult (like I did).

More discussion about cards.


I don't remember if it was Captain Cap last time too, but someone posted a link to a google sheet of math for one of these games. It ended up getting them lynched, if I remember correctly, because it was suspicious to use math to come to the conclusion they did. It's early (IRL for me), so this may not be correct or make sense, I will come back to it in a bit and double check.

I see a lot of discussion about how likely it is that someone who discarded town is a baddie. A lot of people seem to say it is no more suspicious than people who discarded baddie factions, but I can't believe there are an equal distribution of people who got 2 baddie faction choices and chose one of those as there are people who only got 1 and discarded a town as who got all three being town. I am not saying everyone who discarded town is a baddie (I know it is probably not even the majority), but when you are grasping at straws D1 (and D1 only!) you are more likely to find someone hiding in that pile than you are in the people who discarded baddie pile.

I am also uncomfortable having made a silly vote on Rogan about the Deutsche Bahn and it now being the leading wagon. I don't want to move my vote off though because then it'll seem like I was placing a distancing vote on Rogan and jumped off when it became a real wagon, so I am committed now I guess. I just want my vote to be noted as the first vote on the wagon and for silly D1 reasons that weren't meant to start something serious.

EDIT: Also there have been several posts that give more information than I think people realize because if talking about your preferences in light of your discard can give information about choices you *didn't* have and thus limit the roles you then *do* have.

The interesting thing about this post is that it cares more about being seen as a scum or not than whether Rogan even flips red.


Ahh, yes. Thank you for clearing that up, I thought it was you, but I couldn't confirm it first thing this morning. I know it generated a lot of suspicion on you (at least initially) and I always get lynched D1 or D2, so I didn't survive much beyond your post. I am glad to see that math did not, in fact, cause an innocent to die.

As to your second point, I agree there is nothing but a vague feeling to justify it (so nothing in a mathematical or logistical way), but in these games even a vague feeling is enough on D1, so I'm fine with it. I 100% agree that going forward it should not be used at all D2 or beyond, as we will then have something more concrete to go on.

This is kinda NAI but defending his maths reads.


I agree that people who are about to be lynched (and I'm talking like 1 hour away from EOD) should reveal their cards. If it is a close tie, I don't know that both should reveal, but hopefully that won't happen. Cap's mathemancy didn't really come to a conclusion besides math is hard and can't be applied rigorously to this specific instance of this game with the little info we have (which is true). The conclusion being that no one should try to ferret out who is who based on discard (which is generally true), but short of someone making some major mistakes and admitting their evil intentions, we don't have anything better to go on.

Yea the whole flipping issue is my worry, but I can't control what happens. As it gets closer I'll decide if there is another viable wagon to switch to that looks more scummy.

NAI I don't care about this post.


this analysis from last game shows that my intuition about at least more baddies hiding in the town discard than in the baddie discard pile has some empirical evidence to support it (even if it is statistically unlikely in the long term). I am glad to see that my intuition and gut feelings have some merit at least. I am also glad to see that there are 3 viable wagons being build, though until flat_footed actually posts, I can't say much 1 way or the other about who should get lynched. I agree that discarding helpful town roles looks suspicious, but I also know Val is a good enough player to make almost any role helpful for town if they so chose, so they may have gone for something that was a bit of a challenge or otherwise interesting to them, just for the novelty of it. We have have about 26 more hours until EOD, so I am not changing votes yet, but I am on the lookout for a better target.

More meandering


flat_footed was the first wagon (more than 2 votes) to "poke" him to get a response. But people have continued to pile on, and while he may not be a tied lead wagon, he is 1 vote off. He is tied for the lead wagon, I got him and Val confused, sorry.

Still more commenting without committing


Well gac seemed to have gotten the qt message (to pick roles), but not realize there was a game thread until a while after game start. So theoretically someone could pick and still not realize where the game thread is, but gac tried to remedy that.

NAI information

Watch how he makes no solid leans about anyone, doesn't want to jump off the leading wagon because it'll look like distancing, and has so far dedicated his entire thread time to mech talk?

I just want to point out this really hard:

I am also uncomfortable having made a silly vote on Rogan about the Deutsche Bahn and it now being the leading wagon. I don't want to move my vote off though because then it'll seem like I was placing a distancing vote on Rogan and jumped off when it became a real wagon, so I am committed now I guess.

Wording doesn't sound like it comes from Towny PoV.

[Snowblaze]

I'm concerned with changing who is on the chopping block to see what happens. And based on what I remember from before, there is a good chance that flat isn't gonna show up to talk. I'd rather jump around and put pressure on multiple people then CFD flat rather than sit on him for a while and get nothing.

But yes, I am aware there is a data point pointing towards me and flat being scum-buddies. I just don't care.



First point: blade's vote change made Rogan no longer the leading wagon. I, for one, don't read bladescape as having "intent to kill...Rogan." Especially since he himself has said he's pressuring rather than really wanting his targets dead. (A sensible attitude, even if I don't buy him being genuine at this point).

As for the second: my best guess on rogue is still that he drew two scum cards and took one (see here (https://forums.giantitp.com/showsinglepost.php?p=25115006&postcount=61)). Not a strong read, but where I am at. Not really sure how you get me and him as scum-buddies.

For the third: bladescape's vote change put flat as the leading wagon. I was pointing that out, and then saying I was ok with that. blade not mentioning flat was part of my point: he made flat the leading wagon without acknowledging doing so, and while suggesting he preferred voting for Rogan (while his vote change took Rogan off the chopping block).

Good points, but... this whole you/bladescape thing is making me so confused and paranoid.

I made the note about you/r_a because your post 120 featured criticism of both bladescape and Apogee’s rogue_alchemist votes.

The flat_footed explanation makes sense. Though some of your points are... kind of hypocritical? You’re accusing bladescape of not wanting to kill Rogan but I’ve never got the sense that you’re trying to kill r_a or indeed anyone at this stage.

The Valmark/flat_footed wagons we’re getting now aren’t ideal imo, so... ah, I really don’t know whether I want to vote rogue_alchemist. I’m going to reread some of his recent town games.

[bladescape]

Good points, but... this whole you/bladescape thing is making me so confused and paranoid.

I made the note about you/r_a because your post 120 featured criticism of both bladescape and Apogee’s rogue_alchemist votes.

The flat_footed explanation makes sense. Though some of your points are... kind of hypocritical? You’re accusing bladescape of not wanting to kill Rogan but I’ve never got the sense that you’re trying to kill r_a or indeed anyone at this stage.

The Valmark/flat_footed wagons we’re getting now aren’t ideal imo, so... ah, I really don’t know whether I want to vote rogue_alchemist. I’m going to reread some of his recent town games.

Minor towny points for this post.

Also vote R_A, it's good for you

[Aventine]

The flat_footed explanation makes sense. Though some of your points are... kind of hypocritical? You’re accusing bladescape of not wanting to kill Rogan but I’ve never got the sense that you’re trying to kill r_a or indeed anyone at this stage.

What's hypocritical? You don't get the sense that I'm trying to kill anyone because I'm not. Not yet. I want to jump around and see if I can provoke reactions. My issue with blade is he took Rogan out of being the leading wagon while implying he wanted to be voting for Rogan. I don't buy that changing to rogue was an attempt to build a pressure wagon. Hell, blade didn't actually start trying to build the wagon until after I called him out on not doing so.

[bladescape]

What's hypocritical? You don't get the sense that I'm trying to kill anyone because I'm not. Not yet. I want to jump around and see if I can provoke reactions. My issue with blade is he took Rogan out of being the leading wagon while implying he wanted to be voting for Rogan. I don't buy that changing to rogue was an attempt to build a pressure wagon. Hell, blade didn't actually start trying to build the wagon until after I called him out on not doing so.

I mean I'm not gonna lie I was just going to sit there and see who followed the R_A vote without me campaigning for it since it's D1 and even my case isn't amazing.

But then you snarked at my pressure vote.

So I actually put my case/ISO together.

Rogan is also acceptable, and I will be going back there if R_A gets stuck on liftoff.

[Snowblaze]

Okay, got up to page 12 of Percy Jackson (in which rogue_alchemist was town) and... the mechanics talk is still there but there’s also quite a bit of actual solving that I’m not seeing here.

So. rogue_alchemist, let’s do this. Sorry if I’m wrong.

...okay. I’m just confused about this bladescape/Aventine thing. I think I’m just going to have to put it on the back burner and hope they get killed before I have to worry about it come back to it in a few days when there’s more information.

[bladescape]

Okay, got up to page 12 of Percy Jackson (in which rogue_alchemist was town) and... the mechanics talk is still there but there’s also quite a bit of actual solving that I’m not seeing here.

So. rogue_alchemist, let’s do this. Sorry if I’m wrong.

...okay. I’m just confused about this bladescape/Aventine thing. I think I’m just going to have to put it on the back burner and hope they get killed before I have to worry about it come back to it in a few days when there’s more information.

Dw Aventine is also red flip and doesn't like me so I'll either die tonight or flip them after I flip Rogan.

Just re-read and see how it looks like they already know Rogan is bad in their interpretation of my actions.

- - - Updated - - -


Dw Aventine is also red flip and doesn't like me so I'll either die tonight or flip them after I flip Rogan.

Just re-read and see how it looks like they already know Rogan is bad in their interpretation of my actions.

Actually, never mind this. Just re-read myself and it actually looks like Aventine was trying to call something out with no agenda.

Well. Hmm. I may have Omgus reacted too hard just then.

I still want R_A/Rogan for today's flip

[Snowblaze]

Dw Aventine is also red flip and doesn't like me so I'll either die tonight or flip them after I flip Rogan.

Just re-read and see how it looks like they already know Rogan is bad in their interpretation of my actions.

This is not helping. It’s just... I agree with a lot of your points but also you’re acting exactly like I’d expect wolf!you trying to manipulate me to act.

You and Aventine are both making good points but I know you’re both capable of making those good points as a wolf, especially in a game where wolves can genuinely scumhunt.

And I just... don’t want to get overly caught up in the pair of you when there are a lot of other players in the game.

*sees update* okay, cool, my initial reaction was that I didn’t get that point so that makes me... slightly less paranoid.

Anyway, since I want to focus on something else: @Batcathat can you elaborate on the “feeling” that made you vote Rogan earlier? Also what are your thoughts on Valmark?

[bladescape]

This is not helping. It’s just... I agree with a lot of your points but also you’re acting exactly like I’d expect wolf!you trying to manipulate me to act.

:smallwink:

Not gonna lie, it's hard to not mess with people getting paranoid.

Everyone else, give me a reaction to my almight R_A case. I don't care if you love it or hate it, I wanna know your thoughts.

[Captain Cap]

Dw Aventine is also red flip and doesn't like me so I'll either die tonight or flip them after I flip Rogan.

Just re-read and see how it looks like they already know Rogan is bad in their interpretation of my actions.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but are you saying Aventine and Rogan could be scumbaddies? That wouldn't really make sense, though: Aventine seemed pretty fine with Rogan on the chopping block.

- - - Updated - - -


:smallwink:

Not gonna lie, it's hard to not mess with people getting paranoid.

Everyone else, give me a reaction to my almight R_A case. I don't care if you love it or hate it, I wanna know your thoughts.
All I see is a null read at most, no more town than wolf leaning, and given the fact he's almost certainly not a cultist (unless he drew two of them, but I think it would be very unlikely), I'm not convinced he should be a priority at the moment.

- - - Updated - - -



Actually, never mind this. Just re-read myself and it actually looks like Aventine was trying to call something out with no agenda.

Okay, this answers my previous question.

[Batcathat]

Anyway, since I want to focus on something else: @Batcathat can you elaborate on the “feeling” that made you vote Rogan earlier? Also what are your thoughts on Valmark?

Very little, beyond a general feeling (there's a reason I changed my vote at the first sight of a good argument). There was something Rogan said that sounded oddly forced to me but I can't find it at the moment.

I don't really have a read on Valmark, whether good or bad. I'll try to go back and re-read his posts (maybe the rest of the thread too) before end of day.

[Valmark]

Just woke up so... Forgive if I say something blatantly idiotic?




...okay. I’m just confused about this bladescape/Aventine thing. I think I’m just going to have to put it on the back burner and hope they get killed before I have to worry about it come back to it in a few days when there’s more information.
Doesn't help that in this game it could be an heated (kind of) argument between townies, between townie and wolf or between wolves and we'd be none the wiser.

...great, GitP didn't save all the quotes. Brb.

- - - Updated - - -


Why hello people, I invite you all to the R_A train


Meme comment/vote but with a kinda counter-intuitive idea.

NAI

Gets called out on how people who discard Town aren't necessarily scum and defends it.

More discussion about cards.

The interesting thing about this post is that it cares more about being seen as a scum or not than whether Rogan even flips red.

This is kinda NAI but defending his maths reads.

NAI I don't care about this post.

More meandering

Still more commenting without committing

NAI information

Watch how he makes no solid leans about anyone, doesn't want to jump off the leading wagon because it'll look like distancing, and has so far dedicated his entire thread time to mech talk?

I just want to point out this really hard:

Wording doesn't sound like it comes from Towny PoV.

This... Looks like a pretty good point to be honest. Though I'll re-read it with a fresher mind before judging anything.

I think there was another quote I wanted to reply to but I can't find it.

[Snowblaze]

Can I get your thoughts on the current wagons?

That’s you/flat_footed/rogue_alchemist/Rogan. Which do you think are most likely wolves? Do you generally agree with the reasons for killing them?

- - - Updated - - -

That’s @Valmark since the new page doesn’t make it clear.

[Rogan]

Vigs, doctors and roleblockers can easily operate in "silence" and communicatives have means to prove their towniness of their own, so I don't see why they should risk revealing themselves publicly.
Avoiding getting shot by a vig (already statistically unlikely, unless we're somehow full of gun-wielding cowboys) is a small comfort when you draw the attention of every scum faction in the game.

Mmm... this is actually a good point. Why would a town specify "in public" in a game without QTs unless related to powers or factions?

I probably put too much emphasis on getting shot by the vig because last match, I was the vig and shot the seer.
But in general, knowing roles will help targeting actions - for every side. Scum is more likely to kill an info gathering role, town more likely to help them or at least avoid hurting.
But the general consensus seems to be discussing possible roles would help scum more, so I will keep my observations to myself (and unavenger, in my personal QT).


I got a little confused about how the quoting and referencing went.
Who originally wrote the "in public" that is being potentially thought to be a scum slip of the tongue?

---

flat_footed usually comes out and talks when he's close to lynch. I'm curious to see what happens as it nears day's end tomorrow.
It does seem odd that a wagon formed on him with little defense, but not like there's anything to defend when he hasn't posted yet.

The in public part should be clear now.

About flat, yeah, I hope he will talk a bit. So I will keep my vote there, but I also think about other possible lynch candidates not named Rogan



(About discarding seer)
I picked a different role that I thought would be more fun/less stressful for me than playing town seer and trying to breadcrumb my results in a no-PM game.


Honestly I thought bladescape was joking about the vig claim. Maybe I misread that. *shrug*


Eh, I'm not sure how helpful card reveals could be when we don't know the total number of any cards. Not really sure how we would use that info. Plus the majority of players are probably non-town and would presumably just lie.
(Also, if there is a way to use that info, I think it might be easier for non-town factions to use, because they have extra info about their own roles. I'm thinking about Percy Jackson WW, where the wolves figured out several roles earlier than the non-networked townies, because wolves could eliminate possibilities based on knowing the wolves' roles.)


Acknowledge the point about seer being stressful (unless wielding the power as a club, which is boring and a recipe for a short life).

Hm... at first I took this claim at face value, but after this (and other posts) I'm not sure anymore. But blades seems to want people to wonder about this...
I think this post was the first time someone directly doubts the claim? If blades flips non-vig, this might be something to take a closer look at.

Good point about scum having a head start when it comes to card speculation. Maybe limit the reveal to the faction part? Scum already knows who is not on their side. Of course, there will be no guarantee that the info will be actually important, since we don't know the details of the card distribution and there are multiple logical assumptions you can make that still will be wrong. Cards should never be the sole argument for killing people. But they might help as an additional hint.


I am definitely town. Yeah. Totally. You shouldn't be paranoid of me.

The intent is to make people wonder if I am or not.

Am I joking?

Also rogue_alchemist or Rogan for me

What exactly are your reasons to suspect me? Other than my first vote?


(More quotes will come)

[gac3]

Okay... So my notes might not be the most logical or thought out. But I'm working my way though five pages before I'm going to let myself go to bed and my internet it out so I'm on my phone and I've been throwing up.

Xi discredit killing. Which people find odd. However can think of two reasons offer top of my head without properly reading all the rules for this. Maybe they got an alien card and wanted that faction and so didnt want a killing role. Or they got a manipulative role which I think they would like more.

We should absolutely kill Avatar Vecna soon, if not immediately.. After the last game they won't be town if they have a choice, or if they are, they won't want to do much pulling because the rest of us need to learn not to depend on them. Also big cult target, if I was cult at least. I kinda wish I had the option. I bet they would go psychoanalysis as a cultist. So... We should kill AV soon.

Apogee called FF out for doing something I also did... But didn't call me out... I find this odd. Maybe trying to distance or something? Actually I looked again, they called out Flatiron discarding protective. But did not mention that this was also done by: cap, me, and Apogee? So why would Apogee call out flat for something they also did? In the same post they discouraged reading into what people select.

Hold up, then cape joined the voting Flat for the same reason while mentioning that others also discarded protective. But did not call out the hypocrisy.

General thought... Should townies actually be worried about cult? Like... The other factions are a bigger threat to them, and if the cult targets them, they become cult... So I guess my point is, if cult wins, odds are all remaining town people will also have one? Or at least a good chunk of them? Because they would now be cult?

Some thoughts on the discussion of discards. I almost took protective just because I thought I would get suspected for not picking it. However, in a game like this, I would never know how to aim it. I'd rather have... Pretty much any other role. So from this I conclude, discarding protective doesn't seem sis (to me at least) and that people probably did consider how their discard would look.

Kill captain Cap with fire for their analysis that I skipped and just gave points for because it looked like it would hurt my head.

Further in Apogee has drawn attention to their hipocrasy and I know it's spelled wrong but my auto correct was supposed to fix it. This is either more or less weird. I'm not actually sure.

Emmy Necromancer: glad to see other people have habits of claiming really early. Honestly if I wasnt still figuring out the best way to navigate a 4 evil faction game, I would probably claim fairly early. Still might.

Anyone else ever think they are coming to a vote count and it's just Smowblaze's sig? Just me? Okay.


Okay caught up reading. Well mostly. I skipped parts because I'm falling asleep and won't wake up until after EOD. Maybe if my dog wakes me up I'll take a quick look. But I wouldn't count on it so don't do anything too epic that I miss all the fun for.

Based on the most recent vote count I saw and Snow and BCH moving their votes, Valmark and Flat Footed are tied. Part of me wants to vote Valmark because I don't like the logic for voting Flat-footed but I don't have any better logic on Valmark. Honestly if I thought it would turn the tides enough, I would push AV so their is no time. Maybe I should flip a coin? Nah. Let's go Rogue Alchemist so there is a third potential wagon. That way you awake people have one that's almost tied with them in case we get some claims or developments while I sleep.

[Valmark]

If I'm not wrong there's still eight hours left (anybody can confirm that?) Which... Is actually way less then I thought, wow. I think I forgot a day.

I guess bladescape's case on rogue_alchemist makes enough sense- what were the reasons for flat_footed's wagon again? Aside from Aventine seemingly trying to protect them?

I forgot Snowblaze was addressing me, will be back with a quote soon.

- - - Updated - - -


Can I get your thoughts on the current wagons?

That’s you/flat_footed/rogue_alchemist/Rogan. Which do you think are most likely wolves? Do you generally agree with the reasons for killing them?

- - - Updated - - -

That’s @Valmark since the new page doesn’t make it clear.

I don't honestly have any read on Rogan or flat_footed, and even rogue's is really taken from bladescape's ISO.

Ironically, I think my lynch would be fine- while for obvious reasons knowing it's a mislynch doesn't make me happy, what was joked about/tried last game and this one too is true- never died Day 1 (I think), so it'd probably be better for me to die and let others play more unless suspicions mount up.

Though, unless there are lots of reads to be taken from my corpse (which you all can judge better then me) there is no real tactical advantage to lynching me.

[Captain Cap]

General thought... Should townies actually be worried about cult? Like... The other factions are a bigger threat to them, and if the cult targets them, they become cult... So I guess my point is, if cult wins, odds are all remaining town people will also have one? Or at least a good chunk of them? Because they would now be cult?

When a Cult targets another scum, they don't get a kill, but a scry, so their best bet would be to convert townies and fill their ranks as soon as possible.

Moreover, in a 1 vs 1 (faction-wise) scenario, Cult is just more dangerous for town than any other faction, as their conversion can create a net gap of 2 players per night.


Kill captain Cap with fire for their analysis that I skipped and just gave points for because it looked like it would hurt my head.
I'm fireproof. :smallamused:

[Batcathat]

I guess bladescape's case on rogue_alchemist makes enough sense- what were the reasons for flat_footed's wagon again? Aside from Aventine seemingly trying to protect them?

I'm not sure there was much else, beside general "let's poke 'em and see what happens". My main reason for switching was that while Cap's theory might be wrong (Aventine's explanation was reasonable enough) at least it's based on something beyond just analyzing each other's quotes, which I find comforting.


General thought... Should townies actually be worried about cult? Like... The other factions are a bigger threat to them, and if the cult targets them, they become cult... So I guess my point is, if cult wins, odds are all remaining town people will also have one? Or at least a good chunk of them? Because they would now be cult?

I think you might've solved every war ever. "Hey guys, if your army join our army then we all win!" :smallwink:


Anyone else ever think they are coming to a vote count and it's just Smowblaze's sig? Just me? Okay.

You are not alone, no.

[Captain Cap]

Ironically, I think my lynch would be fine- while for obvious reasons knowing it's a mislynch doesn't make me happy, what was joked about/tried last game and this one too is true- never died Day 1 (I think), so it'd probably be better for me to die and let others play more unless suspicions mount up.
At the moment your death wouldn't bring much information, though.

[Snowblaze]

People mistaking my sig for a vote count is entertaining.

Speaking of vote counts...

Rogan (2): rogue_alchemist, totadileplayz
Xihirli (1): AvatarVecna
Valmark (5): Book Wombat, Elenna, Xihirli, JeenLeen, Aventine
flat_footed (5): Caerulea, CaoimhinTheCape, MornShine, Rogan, Batcathat
Aventine (1): Captain Cap
rogue_alchemist (5): Apogee1, bladescape, Snowblaze, gac3, Valmark

No Votes: EmmyNecromancer
No Posts: flat_footed

Three way, five vote tie... well.

I'm not inspired by the reasoning for either Valmark or flat_footed; if you had to force me I'd go for Valmark because I'd expect town!him to have responded to the pressure in a way he hasn't yet.

[Rogan]

Imagine trying to act like that was a pressure vote.


I will, however, add actual pressure onto Valmark since flat seems unlikely to show up and at this point I'd rather have a chance of getting something useful.

For everyone but especially for Aventine
What is flats usual behavior? I don't remember much about him from last match, except he was more concerned about staying alive than working with AV. And I don't think I have read another match where he played.




Honestly, Aventine, from your voting pattern you appear more concerned about protecting flat_footed than anything else.

The moment Rogan wagon reaches flat_footed, you put the tie-breaker vote on Rogan without explanation.

The, when Rogan wagon loses traction, the moment Valmark reaches flat_footed you once again break the tie.

@Aventine I don't think you explained your vote for me, even after called out on it.

In light of Caps post, I could see this as a scum team move, but on the other hand, my (weak) read on flat was SK, so someone without allies.


...Okay, I officially don't get how "stop speculating about who might have what power in public" can be seen as a slip. I don't remember why exactly I used that wording because it was a single line in a wall I made a day ago. The "persons who will not be named" phrasing is a reference to Rogan's post saying Xihirli could have been softing watcher, which was probably the main one I was referring to. (The other was bladescape's semi-claim.)

Other stuff:

Oops, note to self to check for white text more thoroughly in future. Also MornShine/Rogan w/w?*

Aventine has a tendency to jump on wagons without giving much reasoning so I don't think it's particularly AI for them.

I spent large parts of my time alive in the original Crazy Idea fakeclaiming cultist for the lulz, and I mentioned it again when I'd just read Xihirli hinting at possibly being cult.

Aventine/r_a w/w?*

*Don't take my pre-flip associatives too seriously. I am, as bladescape says, memeing about the possibility.



Hm, I think there were multiple posts explaining the problem with the "in public" part, so I think you should be able to see how it can be seen as a slip. I would like you to try to remember what you thought when you used "in public" there.
"The person not to be named" being addressed for me is fair though.

Maybe I shouldn't have hidden the acknowledgement of the vote helping me by creating a tie. But I don't see how noticing this part makes Morn my partner?
The thing about Aventine and r_a is the discussion about Blades vote not targeting me, right?

Thanks for the notice about your cult fake claim. I couldn't place it at first, but now it makes sense.

Also thanks about the info about Aventines voting habits. It will slightly help me to read her. It could also be a way to soft defend her, but I don't want to think about that now


I'm concerned with changing who is on the chopping block to see what happens. And based on what I remember from before, there is a good chance that flat isn't gonna show up to talk. I'd rather jump around and put pressure on multiple people then CFD flat rather than sit on him for a while and get nothing.

But yes, I am aware there is a data point pointing towards me and flat being scum-buddies. I just don't care.



First point: blade's vote change made Rogan no longer the leading wagon. I, for one, don't read bladescape as having "intent to kill...Rogan." Especially since he himself has said he's pressuring rather than really wanting his targets dead. (A sensible attitude, even if I don't buy him being genuine at this point).

As for the second: my best guess on rogue is still that he drew two scum cards and took one (see here (https://forums.giantitp.com/showsinglepost.php?p=25115006&postcount=61)). Not a strong read, but where I am at. Not really sure how you get me and him as scum-buddies.

For the third: bladescape's vote change put flat as the leading wagon. I was pointing that out, and then saying I was ok with that. blade not mentioning flat was part of my point: he made flat the leading wagon without acknowledging doing so, and while suggesting he preferred voting for Rogan (while his vote change took Rogan off the chopping block).

You put a lot of effort into pointing out that I'm no longer the leading wagon. But I don't think I have heard anything even close to an argument for me being scum. The most clear reason is, I discarded a town card, but many people did so...


Flat's lack of content means I don't care about him right now. If he gets lynched he doesn't do anything for town.

Literally would rather other people.

Join me on R_A and together we will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.

I would prefer to get some content from flat. But unless I have a good reason to change the vote, I will keep it there to apply some pressure. I might change it later today, especially if I have to do so to prevent my death.


Don't want to jump off Valmark until I get something. I did it once since I don't expect to get much from flat and willing to just shrug and CFD him, but I don't want to make letting people off the hook a habit.

Once Valmark shows up and gives some reads or something? Sure, I'll happily join you.

Another point where you seem to be quite sure about not getting much from flat. Is this a common problem with flat?


Why hello people, I invite you all to the R_A train

Here was som R_A ISO

Watch how he makes no solid leans about anyone, doesn't want to jump off the leading wagon because it'll look like distancing, and has so far dedicated his entire thread time to mech talk?

I just want to point out this really hard:


Wording doesn't sound like it comes from Towny PoV.

So, my first impression of the vote for me was that it wasn't serious at all. I think you agree here. I don't think I have seen anybody else taking it serious either.
This means R_A unprompted stating that it was not serious is a bit strange. The specific wording could be a tell as well.

I think your case is not watertight, but good enough for day 1. I will consider voting for R_A, but not until
A) I need to do it for self preservation
B) Flat makes a statement I can believe
C) I get some more input about the likehood of flat coming in / staying out.

[Valmark]

I'm not inspired by the reasoning for either Valmark or flat_footed; if you had to force me I'd go for Valmark because I'd expect town!him to have responded to the pressure in a way he hasn't yet.

Two reasons: I hadn't actually realize I was in the lead so much and I'm mostly fine with getting lynched.
I mean, I also don't know what you expect, but it's probably due to that.

@Rogan: flat_footed tipically doesn't post on D1. Him reacting in any significant way would be a relatively big surprise (I don't recall many times he's been in the lead on D1 though).

[Captain Cap]

Maybe I shouldn't have hidden the acknowledgement of the vote helping me by creating a tie. But I don't see how noticing this part makes Morn my partner?

Perhaps you and MornShine are aliens, and they knew about the part in white because you told them in the factional chat? But even in that case a hidden message would be a bad idea (and I can't see a situation in which it could good).
Personally, I think you just made a bad move and someone (MornShine in this case) was bound to find the message, between quotes and maniacs who search every post for hidden parts.


About the current situation: I don't know how active I'll be later in the day, so now I'll drop my (not so influential) vote on Aventine and commit to a wagon.

I choose flat_footed: if they're town, they're a dead weight; if they're scum, the revelation might lend an insight into those defending them.

[Rogan]

Two reasons: I hadn't actually realize I was in the lead so much and I'm mostly fine with getting lynched.
I mean, I also don't know what you expect, but it's probably due to that.

@Rogan: flat_footed tipically doesn't post on D1. Him reacting in any significant way would be a relatively big surprise (I don't recall many times he's been in the lead on D1 though).

Accepting to get lynched is not always a town move. Maybe never? But the specific reason you gave (never getting killed d1, change it to give other people a chance to play) is, in my opinion, a nice move regardless of alignment.

Thanks for the info about flat. It is noted and will figure into my decision making.


Perhaps you and MornShine are aliens, and they knew about the part in white because you told them in the factional chat? But even in that case a hidden message would be a bad idea (and I can't see a situation in which it could good).
Personally, I think you just made a bad move and someone (MornShine in this case) was bound to find the message, between quotes and maniacs who search every post for hidden parts.


About the current situation: I don't know how active I'll be later in the day, so now I'll drop my (not so influential) vote on Aventine and commit to a wagon.

I choose flat_footed: if they're town, they're a dead weight; if they're scum, the revelation might lend an insight into those defending them.

This explanation seems very far fetched to me... waiting for an answer from snow.

Slightly uncomfortable with the vote for flat in combination with the part of not being online later. I still have some hope he will come online when he has many votes, in which case he can defend himself. Which won't do him any good if the voters are not online to reevaluate and change the vote.
But I can agree I don't think flats behavior - even if typical - is very helpful for town.

[Snowblaze]

“I think you should be able to see how it can be seen as a slip” - I can understand the reasoning, it’s just not reasoning I’d put any weight on even if I didn’t know it wasn’t a slip. I’m not going to remember what I previously thought, but it could have been something along the lines of “in public” being opposed to “in your head/your personal QT”.

It was the other part of MornShine’s post that made me think you could be partners - more of a gut reaction than anything else, but also see my footnote.

“I don’t think I’ve heard anything even close to an argument for my being scum” - I did explain why I didn’t like your flat_footed vote, and I still stand by that.


Your response was something about cult being most dangerous, but my point was referring to literally any other faction. The serial killer is both the least threatening and hardest to find of all the anti-town factions on day one.

And... discarding protective technically increases the chance of being SK, but I also don’t see why it wouldn’t be discarded by any other alignment.

[Xihirli]

Gaaaah I don't want to I'm sorry Elenna but I've been persuaded over to Rogue_Alchemist by our resident vigilante.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Everyone else, give me a reaction to my almight R_A case. I don't care if you love it or hate it, I wanna know your thoughts.

It's fine - I understand why it's an option. His opinion on cards/what the discards might mean is something I disagree with but it's not enough for me to vote on it's own, you do bring up a good point about the post that sounds like he cares about optics rather than moving his vote to a better place.


I probably put too much emphasis on getting shot by the vig because last match, I was the vig and shot the seer.
But in general, knowing roles will help targeting actions - for every side. Scum is more likely to kill an info gathering role, town more likely to help them or at least avoid hurting.
But the general consensus seems to be discussing possible roles would help scum more, so I will keep my observations to myself (and unavenger, in my personal QT).


So, the issue with discussing roles is that while Town will be honest about their roles, other factions won't. If we talk about roles and get a few (honest) claims, other factions can use their private knowledge to manipulate the night's events better. Their roleblockers will know who to block (whether that is stopping a doc from protecting someone or a Seer from gaining information). And that's not to mention Aliens getting an easier choice of action at night if they have a Mindslaver.




Apogee called FF out for doing something I also did... But didn't call me out... I find this odd. Maybe trying to distance or something? Actually I looked again, they called out Flatiron discarding protective. But did not mention that this was also done by: cap, me, and Apogee? So why would Apogee call out flat for something they also did? In the same post they discouraged reading into what people select.

Hold up, then cape joined the voting Flat for the same reason while mentioning that others also discarded protective. But did not call out the hypocrisy.

General thought... Should townies actually be worried about cult? Like... The other factions are a bigger threat to them, and if the cult targets them, they become cult... So I guess my point is, if cult wins, odds are all remaining town people will also have one? Or at least a good chunk of them? Because they would now be cult?

I think it was early enough in the day for me that while I saw other people discard protective, not mentioning the others just didn't seem like a big deal? It could be something to look at later for a connection but...

OK, yeah, Apogee saying it's weird to discard a helpful town role while doing it himself is not a good look. Not sure there's time for an Apogee counterwagon but I'm not townreading Apogee anymore. For some reason I never made the connection of Apogee's comment and discard.

I think Cult would win as soon as they outnumber the town - so yes, some Townies could avoid hurting the Cult in the hopes they get picked to join... but it's a risk since it's basically a 50/50 shot at endgame who is part of the cult. Also, if you're Town now and get killed (as town) then your win hinges on the other Townies getting rid of the cult.

Roundabout way of saying we should target them.


For everyone but especially for Aventine
What is flats usual behavior? I don't remember much about him from last match, except he was more concerned about staying alive than working with AV. And I don't think I have read another match where he played.

flat_footed doesn't tend to post much, at least until he has mechanically helpful info (from what I've seen). But there's usually at least a post to acknowledge he's paying attention to the game.


My reason for staying on flat_footed is that having a silent player means we're not getting reads on who they suspect/trust and when they eventually flip we'll have no indication of who their buddies are. If flat_footed is town then he will (or should) at least stop in to give reads or say something that we can judge him on.

Normally an inactive player on Day 1 means they missed the thread but flat_footed had to be aware that it was starting soon (seeing as he made a choice about role). So flat_footed is at least somewhat aware that the game started and hasn't posted. Could be real life getting in the way but bringing a townie who doesn't talk or an evil who can float by without drawing attention is bad.




As it stands, the tie rules means that flat_footed will be lynched, due to reaching 6 votes first. I'm happy with that, seeing as we either have a townie who hasn't said anything or another faction that wanted to blend in the first day (I'm betting on the second). I do expect votes to move (particularly rogue_alchesmist and flat_footed if either are around before EoD) so we'll see who actually dies.

As for the other wagons, I don't remember any particular reason for Valmark and wouldn't love that lynch. I can see the reason for rogue_alchemist so if that happens it's fine but I'll stay where I am. I don't see Rogan or Xi getting enough votes to be lynched at this point.

** I did not have time to go back and make sure that people's previous votes were crossed out. Will hopefully get to it later but I will be fairly busy until end of day **




Votes:

Rogan (2): rogue_alchemist, totadileplayz
Xihirli (1): AvatarVecna
Valmark (4): Book Wombat, Elenna, JeenLeen, Aventine
flat_footed (6): Caerulea, CaoimhinTheCape, MornShine, Rogan, Bathatcat, Captain Cap
rogue_alchemist (6): Apogee1, bladescape, Snowblaze, gac3, Valmark, Xihirli

No Votes: EmmyNecromancer
No Posts: flat_footed

[Rogan]

“I think you should be able to see how it can be seen as a slip” - I can understand the reasoning, it’s just not reasoning I’d put any weight on even if I didn’t know it wasn’t a slip. I’m not going to remember what I previously thought, but it could have been something along the lines of “in public” being opposed to “in your head/your personal QT”.

While I still could see this as a slip, I think a wolf would present her defense with a bit more confidence in her reasoning.
If I end up in a situation where I have to choose between you and someone else, this might tip the scales in favor of your lynch. But till then, I think we can drop this point.



It was the other part of MornShine’s post that made me think you could be partners - more of a gut reaction than anything else, but also see my footnote.

Okay, this makes more sense than the alien conspiracy. Still wrong, but okay.



“I don’t think I’ve heard anything even close to an argument for my being scum” - I did explain why I didn’t like your flat_footed vote, and I still stand by that.


Your response was something about cult being most dangerous, but my point was referring to literally any other faction. The serial killer is both the least threatening and hardest to find of all the anti-town factions on day one.

And... discarding protective technically increases the chance of being SK, but I also don’t see why it wouldn’t be discarded by any other alignment.

Okay, my first point is this:



@flat-footed
Are you the serial killer (or the survivor)?
If my memory does not mislead me, you were more concerned about staying alive than investigating things last match. Now you discard a protective role. So you might have a faction with inbuilt protection. You are also the second biggest wagon and I want to stay alive

I did not vote for flat on account of discarding protective on its own. My reason was
A) Last game, Flat put more effort into staying alive than finding the remaining wolfes. This was made worse by the fact that he made unnecessary effort. He was told he would be protected by tot and he still didn't use the seer power he could and should have used. Now he discarded a power that could protect him. Sure, he would not be 100% save, but it is better than nothing. So, my reasoning is, if he did this, he could have access to a better protection.
B) he had some votes already. Okay, this might have even more wight than the first reason and I should have stated it more visible. But I didn't want you to think about the vote as self preservation first, but think about my argument. This is my second match. I am still not very confident in my own reads. So I need to hear other people's opinions and see what they think.

So, what do you think about my reasoning for the vote on flat, as described above? Without taking into account that I have an interest in not getting killed. Without taking into account that there are other scum factions that are more dangerous.
Just tell me, is there anything that makes you think flat is NOT the SK?

I didn't go for another faction since I didn't have any other leeds. Except the Xi as cult thing. There was some talk about it before I had answered your question. I even included a quote in my response for you.

Right now, my vote remains on flat
A) to give him some reason to talk
B) to see the reactions of other people, especially regarding my question (is this typical flat behavior? I got one answer, but I would like to have at least one more person agreeing with this statement)

Don't get me wrong. I am not sure flat is the SK. But I think it is plausible.
I think Xi might be cult. But I am not sure about it and I am not willing to go vote her, since she is one of the usual scum reads. Give her some time to play.
I don't have other leads for a specific faction.
I am willing to go with the r_a case as a general scum case. But right now, there is enough pressure so I don't need to change.

[JeenLeen]

Not sure what I think of Aventine and Bladescape's banter (bickering) about wagon-formation, but all-in-all I don't think it's scumbuddies distancing via banter AND I think bladescape's points are sound (even if he himself might be lying about motivations for making them.) It does sound okay to pressure townies to get responses and info, and okay to form new wagons. But Aventine rightly notes that giving little arguement to try to did seem odd.
But bladescape gave a convincing arguement.
All in all, I wouldn't be surprised if both Aventine and bladescape were baddies, just baddies of different factions. But could be sincere town at this stage, too. Not much read either way.

I'm going to stay on Valmark for possible pressure and potential discussion/intel as votes move around near the end of the Day.
If flat_footed dies, I think we learn relatively little, though if he flips scum it is perhaps evidence against Aventine. (It was Aventine who thought said seemed to protecting him, right?)
If rogue_alchemist dies and flips scum, we at least know a scum faction bladescape is not. Probably other intel based on who moved to the wagon when.

Some short reads on folk

I've got a slight scumread on Rogan, for some stuff feeling a touch off or iffy, but I forget the details now and am about to go into a meeting, so can't really look up why. This may be subconscious feelings about him joking about killing me in recruitment, though, so I'm not putting a ton of stock in it.
Slight townread on gac3. Nothing solid, but the "trying to do catchup posts with analysis" feels sincere.
I would normally give towncred to Valmark for his feeling okay with being lynched, then noting he didn't realize how close to the lead he was... but I can see scum!Valmark doing a crafty move of purposefully saying that after waking up, then 'realizing' he was in the lead a bit later. (This is a compliment of his skill.) So null read overall with some town flavor.
AV sounds sincere about why she isn't participating as much, but she's also sincerely had similar sentiments while being a serial killer. But I could see, in a game this big, town!AV not wanting to try unless she lives to D2 and knows it is worth her effort. On the other hand, it's a good excuse for a wolf to lay low and have ready should she be called on it. Null read overall.

[Rogan]

So, the issue with discussing roles is that while Town will be honest about their roles, other factions won't. If we talk about roles and get a few (honest) claims, other factions can use their private knowledge to manipulate the night's events better. Their roleblockers will know who to block (whether that is stopping a doc from protecting someone or a Seer from gaining information). And that's not to mention Aliens getting an easier choice of action at night if they have a Mindslaver.

Thank you for the answer. I can see your points and will try to keep them in mind. I guess one thing I still have to learn is, sometimes it is better to keep your mouth shut.




I think it was early enough in the day for me that while I saw other people discard protective, not mentioning the others just didn't seem like a big deal? It could be something to look at later for a connection but...

OK, yeah, Apogee saying it's weird to discard a helpful town role while doing it himself is not a good look. Not sure there's time for an Apogee counterwagon but I'm not townreading Apogee anymore. For some reason I never made the connection of Apogee's comment and discard.

This is more about Apogee, but I can give you my reasons for mentioning flat instead of someone else.
My main reason is, it was basically the opposite of the last match.




I think Cult would win as soon as they outnumber the town - so yes, some Townies could avoid hurting the Cult in the hopes they get picked to join... but it's a risk since it's basically a 50/50 shot at endgame who is part of the cult. Also, if you're Town now and get killed (as town) then your win hinges on the other Townies getting rid of the cult.

Roundabout way of saying we should target them.

Agree here. Cult is a faction that could spiral out of control and should be handled.
But since the only cult lead is Xi... Not today



flat_footed doesn't tend to post much, at least until he has mechanically helpful info (from what I've seen). But there's usually at least a post to acknowledge he's paying attention to the game.


My reason for staying on flat_footed is that having a silent player means we're not getting reads on who they suspect/trust and when they eventually flip we'll have no indication of who their buddies are. If flat_footed is town then he will (or should) at least stop in to give reads or say something that we can judge him on.

Normally an inactive player on Day 1 means they missed the thread but flat_footed had to be aware that it was starting soon (seeing as he made a choice about role). So flat_footed is at least somewhat aware that the game started and hasn't posted. Could be real life getting in the way but bringing a townie who doesn't talk or an evil who can float by without drawing attention is bad.




As it stands, the tie rules means that flat_footed will be lynched, due to reaching 6 votes first. I'm happy with that, seeing as we either have a townie who hasn't said anything or another faction that wanted to blend in the first day (I'm betting on the second). I do expect votes to move (particularly rogue_alchesmist and flat_footed if either are around before EoD) so we'll see who actually dies.

Sorry, I'm not sure if I understand you correctly.
Are you saying, if flat is town, he will get online and defend himself, but if he doesn't talk he is scum and should be killed, even if we don't get to see any interaction between him and everyone else?

I'm a bit confused since you start with "My reason for staying on flat_footed is that having a silent player means we're not getting reads on who they suspect/trust and when they eventually flip we'll have no indication of who their buddies are."
This rather seems to be a reason to vote for someone else.



As for the other wagons, I don't remember any particular reason for Valmark and wouldn't love that lynch. I can see the reason for rogue_alchemist so if that happens it's fine but I'll stay where I am. I don't see Rogan or Xi getting enough votes to be lynched at this point.

** I did not have time to go back and make sure that people's previous votes were crossed out. Will hopefully get to it later but I will be fairly busy until end of day **




Votes:

Rogan (2): rogue_alchemist, totadileplayz
Xihirli (1): AvatarVecna
Valmark (4): Book Wombat, Elenna, JeenLeen, Aventine
flat_footed (6): Caerulea, CaoimhinTheCape, MornShine, Rogan, Bathatcat, Captain Cap
rogue_alchemist (6): Apogee1, bladescape, Snowblaze, gac3, Valmark, Xihirli

No Votes: EmmyNecromancer
No Posts: flat_footed

Can you tell us who you would like to lynch if flat gets online and has some good points?

[Snowblaze]

I mean, I could argue that a serial killer would be more likely to show up and post, but that’s the only reason I can think of. Still “this person has a slightly larger chance than average of being the serial killer” isn’t an argument I’m going to go for any time soon.

I like your point on Caoimhin, though.

[Valmark]

I would normally give towncred to Valmark for his feeling okay with being lynched, then noting he didn't realize how close to the lead he was... but I can see scum!Valmark doing a crafty move of purposefully saying that after waking up, then 'realizing' he was in the lead a bit later. (This is a compliment of his skill.) So null read overall with some town flavor.


You give me way too much cred, honestly. That said, I wouldn't give myself town cred for this- keep in mind that the reasoning has nothing to do with helping town.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Sorry, I'm not sure if I understand you correctly.
Are you saying, if flat is town, he will get online and defend himself, but if he doesn't talk he is scum and should be killed, even if we don't get to see any interaction between him and everyone else?

I'm a bit confused since you start with "My reason for staying on flat_footed is that having a silent player means we're not getting reads on who they suspect/trust and when they eventually flip we'll have no indication of who their buddies are."
This rather seems to be a reason to vote for someone else.



Can you tell us who you would like to lynch if flat gets online and has some good points?

Yeah, looking back at my post, I'm not super clear with that section.


I'm worried about having Flat_Footed around Day 3 or 4, still being quiet and not giving much in the way of reads. I'm assuming we're not going to get much out of Flat_Footed no matter what Day it is and counting Flat as an unknown who we won't get many reads from unless we pressure him. If we do get around to lynching him later in the game it still won't give us much info.

Rogue_alchemist has been participating and will be involved in discussions going forward. If RA lives, then I can guarantee he will show more opinions of the other players as the game continues and we can use those to sus out potential allies. Whether that is him being Town (and giving honest, helpful info) or an evil (showing us who may be on his team).



If I follow your logic: "flat_footed's flip won't give us much info, so let's lynch someone else" then we'll never lynch him cause there will always be someone "better" to lynch. Flat_footed gets a pass, or even rewarded, for not sharing reads because without reads the possible lynch will never give enough info to be worth it.





If Flat_Footed comes online and convinced me of his townieness, then I'd go to RA. I don't really like any of the other wagons and don't have a strong enough case to suggest anyone else.

[flat_footed]

Someone made the point earlier that votes on me tend to loosen my tongue. Yeah, ok, can't deny that. :smalltongue:Just forgive my posting on mobile, so quoting is problematic. I'll do my best to address thoughts without sounding too disjointed. I'll either edit this post or create others depending on my time here at work and further discussion.

Whether or not AV wants to confirm this, I had some words with them after thehe conclusion of the previous game. My actions were definitely influenced by how things were shaping up to be so Town Sided. I had my own game accidentslly skew significantly to town when I narrated, to the point of actually offering to restart the whole thing. So, while it may not have made much sense, I have a bit of a sore spot for having ng one side with a built in disadvantage.

No, I'm afraid I cannot admit to being either the Survivor or Serial Killer. And if memory serves from the last game, the Alien Mindslaver was a bitch and a half to deal with.

rogue_alchemist to get a vote on the table for now and purely for self preservation.

[Elenna]

I'm concerned with changing who is on the chopping block to see what happens. And based on what I remember from before, there is a good chance that flat isn't gonna show up to talk. I'd rather jump around and put pressure on multiple people then CFD flat rather than sit on him for a while and get nothing.

But yes, I am aware there is a data point pointing towards me and flat being scum-buddies. I just don't care.
FWIW I like the general attitude of "this strategy might make me look suspicious but that's fine".


General thought... Should townies actually be worried about cult? Like... The other factions are a bigger threat to them, and if the cult targets them, they become cult... So I guess my point is, if cult wins, odds are all remaining town people will also have one? Or at least a good chunk of them? Because they would now be cult?
Eh, in general I'm not a huge fan of the idea of playing a cult game as town and not trying as hard because you might get culted. IMO you should play to win as your current team.


“I think you should be able to see how it can be seen as a slip” - I can understand the reasoning, it’s just not reasoning I’d put any weight on even if I didn’t know it wasn’t a slip. I’m not going to remember what I previously thought, but it could have been something along the lines of “in public” being opposed to “in your head/your personal QT”.
Eh, I agree it's not a huge thing, but then it's D1 and there aren't a lot of strong arguments in general.
That being said, there seem to be better targets today, so it's just something I'm going to remember for the future.

Re the current wagons:
Valmark: I think this was entirely a joke vote.
flat_footed: I could see the argument about "why would they discard protective" but it's kinda flimsy. I would like to see an answer from them about it though - they presumably approved this thread so they must know it exists?
Rogan: the main argument I remember against them was that they might be wolf-buddies with me? Which I know isn't true, so I don't want to vote for them. Maybe there was something else I'm forgetting though.
rogue_alchemist: I think the mechanics discussion is pretty normal for them, but I also don't like the "I don't want to switch votes because it might look bad" line.

Okay, fine, I feel bad sticking with a joke vote when there's an actual target I'm suspicious of. rogue_alchemist

EDIT: ninja'd by an answer! FF, so what you're saying is that going for the bane last game was specifically because town had such an advantage? Okay, I'm reasonably happy with that answer. Certainly happy enough to stay on r_a instead.

[Xihirli]

FWIW I like the general attitude of "this strategy might make me look suspicious but that's fine".

Thanks, that's all I ever do!

[CaoimhinTheCape]

So, FF posted and didn't change my mind, so my vote stays. That said, an update on vote count means that RA is clearly in the lead.




Votes:

Rogan (2): rogue_alchemist, totadileplayz
Xihirli (1): AvatarVecna
Valmark (3): Book Wombat, JeenLeen, Aventine
flat_footed (6): Caerulea, CaoimhinTheCape, MornShine, Rogan, Bathatcat, Captain Cap
rogue_alchemist (8): Apogee1, bladescape, Snowblaze, gac3, Valmark, Xihirli, flat_footed, Elenna

No Vote: EmmyNecromancer

[flat_footed]

Yes, I approved, though there was more of a lag time from the start here than normal. I'd feel weird anyways making the first post on a thread I approved, when no one else had a chance to post first.

Discarding protective was to get a role that's more helpful to town, while also making a point of separating !HadesFlat from !CraziestFlat.

Edit-

Yeah, that's pretty much it Elenna. Having linked roles or narrator confirmed townies definitely makes outside conversation a huge tool for town. Mass claiming is bad for ball.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Not sure if you have time now, Flat, but do you have any reads/reactions to anyone so far? You're obviously voting RA to live, but going forward who are your main suspects?

[Xihirli]

rogue_alchemist to get a vote on the table for now and purely for self preservation.

Emphasis mine.

Care to explain this contradiction, Rogue?

[Rogan]

I've noticed the reply and will give my opinion when I have a bit more time.

[flat_footed]

Not sure if you have time now, Flat, but do you have any reads/reactions to anyone so far? You're obviously voting RA to live, but going forward who are your main suspects?

I don't have any, right now, though Xi said she's in touch with the vig iirc. Am I mixing this up with another game, or do we have open qt communication here? No one's reached out to me, understandably, but that stuck out to me. Are factions the only ones that know other players roles right now? Out of game talk came up a bunch recently, and it would be tough for me to try to find the exact posts to prove or disprove myself.

[JeenLeen]

Pressure vote on flat_footed to keep folk talking and see action near end of Day, especially with rogue_alchemist now in the lead.


I don't have any, right now, though Xi said she's in touch with the vig iirc. Am I mixing this up with another game, or do we have open qt communication here? No one's reached out to me, understandably, but that stuck out to me. Are factions the only ones that know other players roles right now? Out of game talk came up a bunch recently, and it would be tough for me to try to find the exact posts to prove or disprove myself.

bladescape claimed Town Vig. I think that's what she's referring to.

[flat_footed]

Pressure vote on flat_footed to keep folk talking and see action near end of Day, especially with rogue_alchemist now in the lead.



bladescape claimed Town Vig. I think that's what she's referring to.

Appreciate that. Day 1 claims? Sheesh, that's a dangerous role to put out there if a Mindslaver is in play.

[rogue_alchemist]

Switching my vote mainly to get discussion going, with another person on a close wagon.
Valmark.

Would someone do the date conversion and let me know, roughly, what time Eastern USA D1 should end?
I think I'll be active around day's end, but might not if it's morning my time.
Can confirm voting ends at 2 PM EST in the US. I am CST and it will be at 1 PM for me.

As to bladescape's and (I think) snowblaze's point. My posts are always purely mechanical D1, EXCEPT last game. I tried to do more last game and it worked, but my problem D1 is always that my weekends are so busy. My weekends start on Thursday night and go to Monday morning, so I was around yesterday and should have put more effort into analysis, but there isn't much to analyze because it has come down to a poke vote on Flat_footed vs mech reads on the others. I didn't like any of the reasons but also can't find much to draw connections between. I have found several people making soft claims that I am logging away, but I don't figure pointing those out will help town, so I am saving them for later.

I am on mobile now and tried to quote things to respond to, but somehow they didn't show up and going back through is not an option right now. I guess out of self preservation I'll vote Flat_footed, but I'll try to be on again before EOD to see if there is anything else.

As to Xi's question, she seemed to confuse Flat's post for mine?

Also to generate a little more discussion is it best to give faction and power or just faction in my card reveal before being lynched?

[JeenLeen]

Appreciate that. Day 1 claims? Sheesh, that's a dangerous role to put out there if a Mindslaver is in play.

True, but it has a lot built-in WIFOM. He could be lying to try to draw a mindslaver, and, well... I've been reluctant to say this openly, but I guess it's obvious so no harm in doing so, but someone with a kill power is likely to be targeted by the mindslaver. Meaning seeing who targets the vigilante is a good way to catch a mindslaver.
Same WIFOM spiral as a claimed seer or baner: are they baned, or are they not baned since it's so likely they are baned--and thus wolves leave 'em alone, maybe.
For this: are they being watched, or is it safe to mindslave them?

If a vig gets roleblocked/voided, can the mindslaver still use their power to kill someone?

It was neat to see you claim not-serial-killer or not-survivor. I've curious if anyone close to lynch would claim survivor (honestly or not) just to try to survive, and, if they did, if the real survivor would counterclaim or choose to stay quiet.

[Batcathat]

Am I mixing this up with another game, or do we have open qt communication here?

No, no QTs at all beyond faction chats.

Good to see flat_footed finally talking. Not sure if it's enough to change my vote (not that changing it would have much of an effect right now). I'm still hoping to re-read the thread before end of day and make up my mind then.

[JeenLeen]

Also to generate a little more discussion is it best to give faction and power or just faction in my card reveal before being lynched?

Someone (I think totaldileplayz, but not sure and don't want to dig through the pages of posts) made a good case for just Faction.
I'm not 100% convinced, but I can see how more info on distribution of powers could help the baddies more than town. It's not like the Town knowing there's likely 2 baners in play (if we could even divine that--exceedingly unlikely except if at near-everybody-dead and folk been honest about stating cards), that does nothing to know who holds the power. While baddies can more likely deduce, since they at least can privately coordinate amongst themselves.

[AvatarVecna]

Someone made the point earlier that votes on me tend to loosen my tongue. Yeah, ok, can't deny that. :smalltongue:Just forgive my posting on mobile, so quoting is problematic. I'll do my best to address thoughts without sounding too disjointed. I'll either edit this post or create others depending on my time here at work and further discussion.

Whether or not AV wants to confirm this, I had some words with them after thehe conclusion of the previous game. My actions were definitely influenced by how things were shaping up to be so Town Sided. I had my own game accidentslly skew significantly to town when I narrated, to the point of actually offering to restart the whole thing. So, while it may not have made much sense, I have a bit of a sore spot for having ng one side with a built in disadvantage.

No, I'm afraid I cannot admit to being either the Survivor or Serial Killer. And if memory serves from the last game, the Alien Mindslaver was a bitch and a half to deal with.

rogue_alchemist to get a vote on the table for now and purely for self preservation.

Can confirm that happened.

[rogue_alchemist]

Someone (I think totaldileplayz, but not sure and don't want to dig through the pages of posts) made a good case for just Faction.
I'm not 100% convinced, but I can see how more info on distribution of powers could help the baddies more than town. It's not like the Town knowing there's likely 2 baners in play (if we could even divine that--exceedingly unlikely except if at near-everybody-dead and folk been honest about stating cards), that does nothing to know who holds the power. While baddies can more likely deduce, since they at least can privately coordinate amongst themselves.

Alright that is what I had seen too, and figured it was probably right, but would like more than one person saying it/thinking about it, since it could be scum trying to withhold info from town.

[JeenLeen]

Alright that is what I had seen too, and figured it was probably right, but would like more than one person saying it/thinking about it, since it could be scum trying to withhold info from town.

Yeah, I guess it could be scum trying to withhold info from Town (only admitting Role info should be shared since there's no good arguement against that), but I sort of doubt it this game.

Really, for any sharing, it gives the scum the same info as town (obviously, as public), but the scum teams have more intel to combine it with.
But they already know alignment in a "us vs. them" sense, just the "them"s are Town and other factions.

Eh, I'm having trouble making a coherent point, but basically I don't think totaldile's arguement was scummy, and while Just-Role-Cards info might help wolves, I think it'll help Town more.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Good to see flat_footed finally talking. Not sure if it's enough to change my vote (not that changing it would have much of an effect right now). I'm still hoping to re-read the thread before end of day and make up my mind then.

Votes matter a lot right now, with the wagons so close and moving from one to the other is a big swing. On that note...


Can confirm that happened.

Any preference between the two wagons?



By my count, both are at 8 and rogue got there first but there are quite a few people off of either wagon.




Votes:

Rogan (1): totadileplayz
Xihirli (1): AvatarVecna
Valmark (2): Book Wombat, Aventine
flat_footed (8): Caerulea, CaoimhinTheCape, MornShine, Rogan, Bathatcat, Captain Cap, JeenLeen, rogue_alchemist
rogue_alchemist (8): Apogee1, bladescape, Snowblaze, gac3, Valmark, Xihirli, flat_footed, Elenna

No Vote: EmmyNecromancer

[AvatarVecna]

Any preference between the two wagons?

That would require following along with things. Or flipping a coin I suppose.

[rogue_alchemist]

Yeah, I guess it could be scum trying to withhold info from Town (only admitting Role info should be shared since there's no good arguement against that), but I sort of doubt it this game.

Really, for any sharing, it gives the scum the same info as town (obviously, as public), but the scum teams have more intel to combine it with.
But they already know alignment in a "us vs. them" sense, just the "them"s are Town and other factions.

Eh, I'm having trouble making a coherent point, but basically I don't think totaldile's arguement was scummy, and while Just-Role-Cards info might help wolves, I think it'll help Town more.

Yea, I definitely don't think faction only helps scum more than town, but I am not sure about the roles. Sure scum has more info than town, but that doesn't change with card reveal or not. They obviously know who is not in their faction, so knowing what faction cards you had doesn't help them more, plus the death reveal will confirm your faction anyways. But the power, we don't know how many of any powers there were, so revealing what 3 powers I had to choose from when the death reveal will confirm which power I was anyways doesn't seem to help them. I am a proponent that more info in a public only town game (no qts) is always a benefit for town, but I don't want my own inability to sustain out info from reading between the lines to hinder town later by helping scum too much.

[Rogan]

Yeah, looking back at my post, I'm not super clear with that section.


I'm worried about having Flat_Footed around Day 3 or 4, still being quiet and not giving much in the way of reads. I'm assuming we're not going to get much out of Flat_Footed no matter what Day it is and counting Flat as an unknown who we won't get many reads from unless we pressure him. If we do get around to lynching him later in the game it still won't give us much info.


If I follow your logic: "flat_footed's flip won't give us much info, so let's lynch someone else" then we'll never lynch him cause there will always be someone "better" to lynch. Flat_footed gets a pass, or even rewarded, for not sharing reads because without reads the possible lynch will never give enough info to be worth it.





If Flat_Footed comes online and convinced me of his townieness, then I'd go to RA. I don't really like any of the other wagons and don't have a strong enough case to suggest anyone else.

Thanks for the clarification, I see your point much clearer now and can agree with this reasoning.
Flat is online now (I count this as a small victory) and I am interested if he manages to convince you.



Someone made the point earlier that votes on me tend to loosen my tongue. Yeah, ok, can't deny that. :smalltongue:Just forgive my posting on mobile, so quoting is problematic. I'll do my best to address thoughts without sounding too disjointed. I'll either edit this post or create others depending on my time here at work and further discussion.

Whether or not AV wants to confirm this, I had some words with them after thehe conclusion of the previous game. My actions were definitely influenced by how things were shaping up to be so Town Sided. I had my own game accidentslly skew significantly to town when I narrated, to the point of actually offering to restart the whole thing. So, while it may not have made much sense, I have a bit of a sore spot for having ng one side with a built in disadvantage.

No, I'm afraid I cannot admit to being either the Survivor or Serial Killer. And if memory serves from the last game, the Alien Mindslaver was a bitch and a half to deal with.

rogue_alchemist to get a vote on the table for now and purely for self preservation.

I don't particularly like your reasoning for your past game actions, but AV confirmed the story, so my initial reasoning is now invalid.

Two more questions, while you are here:
1) You thought the last match was town sided (probably have to agree. AVs resurrection, the early Xi kill, the town network, a neutral wanting to kill a wolf etc). How do you feel about this match?
2) will your time schedule allow you to be more active day 2+?


Yes, I approved, though there was more of a lag time from the start here than normal. I'd feel weird anyways making the first post on a thread I approved, when no one else had a chance to post first.

Discarding protective was to get a role that's more helpful to town, while also making a point of separating !HadesFlat from !CraziestFlat.

Edit-

Yeah, that's pretty much it Elenna. Having linked roles or narrator confirmed townies definitely makes outside conversation a huge tool for town. Mass claiming is bad for ball.

Agree about the delay. There was the setup phase first, with role picking and selecting the discard.

No comment about the role, except I can see this as the truth.


Appreciate that. Day 1 claims? Sheesh, that's a dangerous role to put out there if a Mindslaver is in play.

To be fair, this claim was in response to my case of "discarding seer is evil" and there has been some back and forth about the claim and how serious it is.


Can confirm voting ends at 2 PM EST in the US. I am CST and it will be at 1 PM for me.

As to bladescape's and (I think) snowblaze's point. My posts are always purely mechanical D1, EXCEPT last game. I tried to do more last game and it worked, but my problem D1 is always that my weekends are so busy. My weekends start on Thursday night and go to Monday morning, so I was around yesterday and should have put more effort into analysis, but there isn't much to analyze because it has come down to a poke vote on Flat_footed vs mech reads on the others. I didn't like any of the reasons but also can't find much to draw connections between. I have found several people making soft claims that I am logging away, but I don't figure pointing those out will help town, so I am saving them for later.

I am on mobile now and tried to quote things to respond to, but somehow they didn't show up and going back through is not an option right now. I guess out of self preservation I'll vote Flat_footed, but I'll try to be on again before EOD to see if there is anything else.

As to Xi's question, she seemed to confuse Flat's post for mine?

Also to generate a little more discussion is it best to give faction and power or just faction in my card reveal before being lynched?

Your defense has been noted. Can you tell us a bit more about why you were concerned about the way you would look if you changed your joke vote? If you already did, sorry. You don't need to repeat yourself but please point me to the post.


Someone (I think totaldileplayz, but not sure and don't want to dig through the pages of posts) made a good case for just Faction.
I'm not 100% convinced, but I can see how more info on distribution of powers could help the baddies more than town. It's not like the Town knowing there's likely 2 baners in play (if we could even divine that--exceedingly unlikely except if at near-everybody-dead and folk been honest about stating cards), that does nothing to know who holds the power. While baddies can more likely deduce, since they at least can privately coordinate amongst themselves.

I asked the same question before. I can't remember a clear answer on the top of my head, but I can't rule out tot giving his opinion.


Can confirm that happened.

Thanks for your input.

[rogue_alchemist]

Your defense has been noted. Can you tell us a bit more about why you were concerned about the way you would look if you changed your joke vote? If you already did, sorry. You don't need to repeat yourself but please point me to the post.
The problem is something like this: you and I could be scum buddies and I want to appear to be willing to vote you, so I make a silly post with a dumb reason to vote you right out of the gate. Then this gains traction/ you do something to draw suspicion so now you are a legitament wagon, but being my scumbuddie I now jump off to make sure you don't die (4 votes is usually enough D1, it is rare to get everybody to agree much). Now even if I'm not your scum buddies if you flip red then I am now in the crosshairs for tomorrow's lynch. Also I didn't have a great wagon to switch to, so I didn't want to jump for flippant reasons.

I also didn't want to just leave my vote on you and not acknowledge any of this, as then I could be seen as bussing you just for the town cred.

But now it is my head on the chopping block, so it's all moot anyways.

I guess I might as well claim. I am the town seer and had 2 town cards and the cult card. This only delays my death as a lynch now or a NK tonight, but maybe town will switch and at least catch some scum with the lynch.

[Rogan]

Right now, I am a bit at loss about my vote.
On one hand, the pressure of votes made flat talk and getting him to talk was a reason for keeping my vote on him.
On the other hand the closer the votes, the more discussion...

I will reread some posts to gather some additional insights. Or at least I will try to gain them.

- - - Updated - - -



I guess I might as well claim. I am the town seer and had 2 town cards and the cult card. This only delays my death as a lynch now or a NK tonight, but maybe town will switch and at least catch some scum with the lynch.

Okay, this is enough reason to not vote for you. If you tell the truth, good for us. If you lie and don't die, we can lynch you later.

[totadileplayz]

Flat_Footed Don't kill a claimant d1.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Now that Flat_Footed is the leading wagon (and people may not want to risk lynching Seer) do you have anything to say/claim FF?



Votes:

Xihirli (1): AvatarVecna
Valmark (2): Book Wombat, Aventine
flat_footed (9): Caerulea, CaoimhinTheCape, MornShine, Rogan, Bathatcat, Captain Cap, JeenLeen, rogue_alchemist, totadileplayz
rogue_alchemist (8): Apogee1, bladescape, Snowblaze, gac3, Valmark, Xihirli, flat_footed, Elenna

No Vote: EmmyNecromancer

- - - Updated - - -

Noting that Investigatives get these results:


Investigative

Town Seer: Once per night, you can choose one target. You learn that target's FACTION.

Mafia or Cult Spy: Once per night, you can choose one target. You learn that target's ROLE TYPE.

Alien Researcher: Once per night, you can choose one target. You learn that target's FACTION and ROLE.

So it'll be hard for a Mafia/Werewolf/Cult spy to fake info Day after Day so if he is (or is converted to) one of those factions it should become easy to tell in time.

- - - Updated - - -

Gonna expect you to give results each Day going forward, but I suggest not telling us your target - there are roleblockers/framers/etc.

[AvatarVecna]

flat_footed because you don't lynch a claimant. That said I do have some stuff to say about the assumptions RA started out making, and my thoughts on previous versions of the game.


FOS on everyone who discarded a town faction card. Especially Rogan because everyone knows you can set your watch by how punctual the Deutsche Bahn is! jajaja
I thought about trying to do analysis like this. Most of what you say lines up with what I remember from last game, but with so many unknowns and the fact that the underlying mechanics get changed each time this is played, it felt moot to spell it out. I just struck with the traditional 'random' reason for a vote. Now I did narrow my vote down to those who had discarded town roles, as there are guaranteed *some* baddies in there, so seems pretty better than nothing, but picking Rogan out of the bunch is more of a fun poke at this point than a serious vote.
because the odds of that many people having all town cards is low, and the general consensus is that town is less fun as you don't have a group to talk with/plan with. With so many factions being town is also a lot harder, so I will guarantee that there is at least 1 baddie in the group that discarded town cards.

This is a bad argument. Ignoring how even in a normal game (with something like a 16-5 split), saying "at least one of these 12 players is scum" is such a toothless claim, it's even more laughable in this set-up because 12 might be more players than there are townies period. There's four non-town factions, and while I expect town to have a numbers advantage over them, an even split would be something like 5/4/4/4/4 (with 5 being town). Since town should have a distinct numbers advantage, and cult especially should have a distinct numbers disadvantage, lets shift those a bit to get 10/3/3/3/2. Even if those numbers aren't 100% accurate (if nothing else, there's SK/Survivor that's not accounted for there), I expect town faction to be in the 8-12 range.

That said, it's not the worst argument based on the games' history. One of the problems in a previous game of Crazy Idea was that Unavenger rigged things so that nobody would be stuck with a particular faction. This inevitably meant that everybody had at least one non-town card, and what ended up happening is that basically everybody picked non-town alignment. That game had a single townie (who got sniped by the cult N1 :smallbiggrin:).


Yeah, if I run another one of these - would people want that? - I may lift the artificially-enforced restrictions that I placed:

> No player may get two cards with the same role type.
> No player may draw three cards which all say "Town".
> No player may draw two or more cards with the same faction other than "Town"
> No player may draw a card which says "Survivor" and a card which says "Serial Killer".

Because, yeah, that messed with the ratios, because anyone who could pick scum - which was everyone except for Snowblaze - did pick scum, except for CaomhinTheCape. One player, Duck999, could not pick town.

In Crazier, we even got to see the actual card distribution that resulted from the above realization.


AvatarVecna: Town Roleblocking, Town JOAT, Town Protective
Caerulea: Town Protective, Town Roleblocking, Town Tracking
Valmark: Werewolf Tracking, Mafia Innocent-Looking, Town Killing
The Outsider: Town Innocent-Looking, Town Protective, Town Roleblocking
PartyOfRogues: Werewolf Tracking, Town JOAT, Town Roleblocking
gac3: Werewolf Investigative, Town Universal Backup, Town Tracking
Xihirli: Survivor Roleblocking, Town Universal Backup, Werewolf Innocent-Looking
Elenna: Alien Protective, Town Tracking, Town Investigative
Captain Cap: Mafia Killing, Town Investigative, Town Protective
rogue_alchemist: Town JOAT, Alien Tracking, Town Investigative
Apogee1: Town Investigative, Town Universal Backup, Serial Killer JOAT
JeenLeen: Town JOAT, Town Roleblocking, Mafia Innocent-Looking
CaomhinTheCape: Town Killing, Town JOAT, Mafia Universal Backup
Zelphas: Alien Tracking, Town Investigative, Town JOAT
plenty: Alien Roleblocking, Town Killing, Town Protective

12 people discarded town, 3 discarded mafia. 4 of the town discards were townies, 4 more were aliens, three more were wolves, and one was serial killer. If that game is a good statistical representation for how Crazy is run/played in general, then that would mean aiming for somebody who discarded town has a ~2/3 chance of hitting scum. Obviously, it's not really a big enough sample size for us to be absolutely positive about that conclusion, so it's less statistical certainty and more a hunch with a bit of evidence behind it. But it's not necessarily a hunch worth lynching somebody over, as much as it is a very lukewarm take.

Incidentally, there's a few other interesting conclusions we can draw from this card distribution from last time:

1) Nobody got the same power twice. Everybody has three powers to choose from, regardless of how many alignments they have to choose from.

2) That deck had 4 werewolf, 4 alien, 4 mafia, 1 serial killer, 1 survivor, and 31 town cards. The three scum factions present had equal numbers of cards in the deck.

3) Based on that, total non-town made up ~1/3 of cards. Good guess that means there's 21 non-town for this game, which means SK, Survivor, and then 19 for the 4 non-town factions. Assuming a number disadvantage for cult, we're maybe looking at a card split of 42/5/5/5/4/1/1?

4) Every person who drew werewolf or alien played that team (as did the serial killer), and the person who drew survivor only didn't play survivor because they drew werewolf as well. There were six townie players, and half of them had no choice but to be town. Again, not the kind of thing we can depend on to be statistically consistent, but it gives an idea of how the decks and hands are being constructed.

5) Based on card proportions and faction proportions post-discard from Crazier (31 town cards, 6 townies), expect maybe 1/5th of town cards to make townies? So 8 town. SK/Survivor weren't discarded, so I'm generally assuming at least one (and possibly both) are in play. We have two discards from wolves/aliens/cult and 3 from mafia, so probably 3A/3W/2M/2C split there. That's 8/3/3/2/2/1, so 19/21 players - there's either two floating around the factions (including potentially town), or one floating and one that's the other neutral. And I'd bet the floating is town, so my guess is either 9/3/3/2/2/1/1 or 10/3/3/2/2/1 split.

[JeenLeen]

flat_footed, got a claim?
Or cards to share?

[Batcathat]

Finally got around to re-reading (well, skimming) the thread but didn't really learn anything new. With rogue's claim I think I'll let my vote remain where it is.

Oh, and I did find the Rogan quote that I talked about earlier. I still think it reads kind of forced but don't take it for more than it is (and it's certainly not much).


Agree about the first part. The second part... nope. I picked my vote as soon as the discards were online. After all, why would I wait for a QT when I had three crappy town cards? I even was close to posting too soon, but luckily I noticed the change of starting time.

[Rogan]

Recent weirdness aside, I do tend to think that vigilante is more a hindrance to town than anything else, and works best if it's still "aimed" by town in some fashion. A kill aimed by one player's gut isn't all that useful, a kill aimed by most of town tends to have a better chance of being right. But also the presence of a vig means that we progress through killing people quicker, means a shorter game. It means more kills in town's control, but I think we all know just how devastating a bad town-vig can be for town.

Since right now, the second biggest wagon claimed seer, who would you suggest to shoot tonight? In a general or specific sense?


Does revealing your role alignment cards help any other faction besides town?

The question of tot mentioned before.


Yeah, if I hypothetically chose to play as Town, Cult already knows I'm not on their side.

That said, in this situation Cult now knows, or are the people who can most reasonably conclude, that I am neither a wolf nor an alien, and am therefore a target they can convert.

Though now town also knows that, and might either protect me or just kill me tomorrow in case, so I might be the worst choice.

But werewolves come from transylvania, where alien sightings are rare, so they clearly cannot choose the player in front of me.

Is there a reason you didn't include Mafia in your post?


I had a cult card that I was extremely tempted to take. But I wasn't all that excited about the other two powers I got and could pair with cult (now cult fanatic I would have taken in a heart-beat). Also the power on my cult card was nice.

Depending on how many cult cards we think are out there, we might be looking at either no cult or one of me or Xi lying about drawing a cult card and using it for power rather than alignment.

I'll jump on the Rogan wagon for now

The vote on me for no reason was discussed before. What do we think about the not-cult claim?

[JeenLeen]

If flat_footed flips scum, then I'd be willing to lean Aventine as a scumbuddy and essentially confirm Rogan as being a different faction (including possibly Town).

- - - Updated - - -

To clarify: not saying flat_footed flipping scum is any evidence for or against Rogan being Town. I just meant that I don't see strong evidence against him being Town, and didn't mean 'faction' as necessarily meaning a baddie faction.

And, based on recent posts, guess it's unlikely Bathatcat and Rogan are scumbuddies, too. Though reckon it could be safe distancing, if one is feeling paranoid.

[AvatarVecna]

Since right now, the second biggest wagon claimed seer, who would you suggest to shoot tonight? In a general or specific sense?

Third-biggest wagon (so maybe Valmark), but that's less true on D1 when wagons tend to be a lot less based on analysis (and that wagon in particular seemed to be more of a joke than anything). Taking a vig shot is safer in this game than it usually is (~1/2 chance of screwing over town, as opposed to the usual ~3/4 or ~4/5), so it might be okay to fire blindly, but if I were vig (which I'm not) I wouldn't trust my gut and would probably not use my shot. Especially given how much attention I've been paying (or rather, not paying) to the back and forth.

[JeenLeen]

My recommendation to the Town Vig would be to think about whose death would yield the most information for Town if they flip a particular faction.
Then, to add some WIFOM confusion, either decide to target that person OR decide to target someone else since that person's faction might be baning them.

I believe it was confirmed that different factions' kills had different color-coding and flavor text (like previous Crazy Idea games). With all the potential baners being active (though definitely less than it could be, based on power discards), lack of a particular kill flavor doesn't necessarily mean anything one way or the other, but... well, something to consider D2 when we see who died N1.

[Aventine]

flat then, though we got less from Valmark than I had hoped for.

[Xihirli]

Is there a reason you didn't include Mafia in your post?

Yes, it’s that my brain defaults to werewolves. So when I’m talking about werewolves, you are free to edit that in your head to “mafia.”

- - - Updated - - -

Also, I’m back on Valmark.

[JeenLeen]

Yes, it’s that my brain defaults to werewolves. So when I’m talking about werewolves, you are free to edit that in your head to “mafia.”

I'm also finding it hard to correctly refer to generic bad factions. I'm leaning toward "baddies", since I've never liked the feel of "scum".
But y'all can presume I might use wolf, wolfy, or mafia to mean any of the baddie factions. I think I've tended to capitalize Mafia or Werewolf in this game, if I'm meaning that particular faction. But feel free to ask if it really matters for interpretation.

- - - Updated - - -


Also, I’m back on Valmark.

If votes suddenly move there at end of Day, I'd be curious about the interpretation. I'm game. Valmark, have at ye!

[Rogan]

Yes, it’s that my brain defaults to werewolves. So when I’m talking about werewolves, you are free to edit that in your head to “mafia.”

Also, I’m back on Valmark.

Okay. A bit strange in a game called Craziest Idea Mafia but not completely out of order. Definitely not a reason to change my stance towards you. That is, don't kill Xi now.

[Elenna]

Okay flat_footed seems to be the only other major wagon to switch to given how close we are to EOD. I'm not super convinced by r_a's claim but we're probably better off waiting and seeing his claimed scry results. Although I'm a little paranoid that he's an alien.


Third-biggest wagon (so maybe Valmark), but that's less true on D1 when wagons tend to be a lot less based on analysis (and that wagon in particular seemed to be more of a joke than anything). Taking a vig shot is safer in this game than it usually is (~1/2 chance of screwing over town, as opposed to the usual ~3/4 or ~4/5), so it might be okay to fire blindly, but if I were vig (which I'm not) I wouldn't trust my gut and would probably not use my shot. Especially given how much attention I've been paying (or rather, not paying) to the back and forth.
Interesting that you're suggesting always going for the top wagon (seer claims aside) - wouldn't that just make it easier for other factions to block the vig kill? Or am I misunderstanding your suggestion?

[Captain Cap]

Okay. A bit strange in a game called Craziest Idea Mafia but not completely out of order. Definitely not a reason to change my stance towards you. That is, don't kill Xi now.
The games are often called Werewolf/Mafia, and werewolf is part of the lexicon generally used to indicated the bad guys (when they're a faction with a night kill). It's definitely not strange.

[Rogan]

I'm also finding it hard to correctly refer to generic bad factions. I'm leaning toward "baddies", since I've never liked the feel of "scum".
But y'all can presume I might use wolf, wolfy, or mafia to mean any of the baddie factions. I think I've tended to capitalize Mafia or Werewolf in this game, if I'm meaning that particular faction. But feel free to ask if it really matters for interpretation.

- - - Updated - - -

If votes suddenly move there at end of Day, I'd be curious about the interpretation. I'm game. Valmark, have at ye!

To clarify, I see that Mafia and Werewolf are basically the same thing with different hats. It was just an idle observation for something outside of the big wagons.

About the votes. Has anyone kept a list about who reached which number first?
If I am up-to-date, flat is at 8 and r_a is at 7.
Who was at 7 first?

[Unavenger]

Day 1 End

Please wait for votes to be counted.

[Captain Cap]

Given rogue_alchemist's claim, my vote stays where it is.


Votes:

Valmark (3): Book Wombat, Xihirli, JeenLeen
flat_footed (11): Caerulea, CaoimhinTheCape, MornShine, Rogan, Bathatcat, Captain Cap, rogue_alchemist, totadileplay, AvatarVecna, Aventine, Elenna
rogue_alchemist (6): Apogee1, bladescape, Snowblaze, gac3, Valmark, flat_footed

No Vote: EmmyNecromancer

- - - Updated - - -

I see I'm late...

[AvatarVecna]

Okay flat_footed seems to be the only other major wagon to switch to given how close we are to EOD. I'm not super convinced by r_a's claim but we're probably better off waiting and seeing his claimed scry results. Although I'm a little paranoid that he's an alien.


Interesting that you're suggesting always going for the top wagon (seer claims aside) - wouldn't that just make it easier for other factions to block the vig kill? Or am I misunderstanding your suggestion?

That's the downside to the plan, more or less. Your options are "follow your own gut" or "follow town's gut via lynch results". The former is hard to predict and counter, but is generally less likely to hit scum because people aren't good at the game. The former is more likely to hit scum, but is easier to screw with because it's predictable. However, in a game like this, it's not going to necessarily get blocked, and if it does get blocked, that's not necessarily alignment indicative. At that point we're really getting into the wine, though. The most likely reason such a kill would be blocked is that the target (who has reason to believe they're the target) would be scum, and be baned by their team. Not every scumteam is necessarily going to have a baner. We know where town protective should be aiming tonight, so if the vig kill fails, it's likely because of a scumbaner.

[Unavenger]

AvatarVecna voted FLAT_FOOTED
Valmark voted ROGUE_ALCHEMIST
Bathatcat voted FLAT_FOOTED
Snowblaze voted ROGUE_ALCHEMIST
CaoimhinTheCape voted FLAT_FOOTED
Book Wombat voted VALMARK
Elenna voted FLAT_FOOTED
Xihirli voted VALMARK
totadileplayz voted FLAT_FOOTED
rogue_alchemist voted FLAT_FOOTED
MornShine voted FLAT_FOOTED
gac3 voted ROGUE_ALCHEMIST
bladescape voted ROGUE_ALCHEMIST
Aventine voted FLAT_FOOTED
JeenLeen voted VALMARK
EmmyNecromancer REFUSED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE CORRUPT INSTITUTION OF DEMOCRACY
Rogan voted FLAT_FOOTED
flat_footed voted ROGUE_ALCHEMIST
Apogee1 voted ROGUE_ALCHEMIST
Caerulea voted FLAT_FOOTED
Captain Cap voted FLAT_FOOTED

flat_footed recieved 11 votes
rogue_alchemist recieved 6 votes
Valmark recieved 3 votes
1 player refuced to participate in the corrupt institution of democracy.

flat_footed died today. He was executed. flat_footed's role was Alien Overseer.

Night 1 Start

This phase will end at 19:00 BST, 10/07/2021.

[JeenLeen]

flat_footed died today. He was executed. flat_footed's role was Alien Overseer.

Well, that yields some info.
Also noteworthy that Aliens are the only faction that could communicate privately during the Day. While I'd believe flat_footed may have been inactive there as well, it's possible/probable he was coordinating with his team a little bit and staying quiet public.

It's not pro-Town to speculate a ton on what this means for who is likely/maybe what, but... well, glad we didn't get a townie, as that would yield almost no useful info.

[Rogan]

Got a powerful hostile info gathering role. Good.

We are allowed to talk at night, right?
Not necessarily a good idea, but allowed?

[Unavenger]

Got a powerful hostile info gathering role. Good.

We are allowed to talk at night, right?
Not necessarily a good idea, but allowed?

Yes, you may talk in this thread at any time.

[JeenLeen]

Consolidating some public information for mine and perhaps others' ease.

Claims
EmmyNecromancer: Town JOAT
rogue_alchemist: Town Investigative
bladescape: Town Killing



I'm kinda debating if I should claim. Not sure if that would be the wise and/or fun.

[Rogan]

Someone made the point earlier that votes on me tend to loosen my tongue. Yeah, ok, can't deny that. :smalltongue:Just forgive my posting on mobile, so quoting is problematic. I'll do my best to address thoughts without sounding too disjointed. I'll either edit this post or create others depending on my time here at work and further discussion.

Whether or not AV wants to confirm this, I had some words with them after thehe conclusion of the previous game. My actions were definitely influenced by how things were shaping up to be so Town Sided. I had my own game accidentslly skew significantly to town when I narrated, to the point of actually offering to restart the whole thing. So, while it may not have made much sense, I have a bit of a sore spot for having ng one side with a built in disadvantage.

No, I'm afraid I cannot admit to being either the Survivor or Serial Killer. And if memory serves from the last game, the Alien Mindslaver was a bitch and a half to deal with.

rogue_alchemist to get a vote on the table for now and purely for self preservation.


Yes, I approved, though there was more of a lag time from the start here than normal. I'd feel weird anyways making the first post on a thread I approved, when no one else had a chance to post first.

Discarding protective was to get a role that's more helpful to town, while also making a point of separating !HadesFlat from !CraziestFlat.

Edit-

Yeah, that's pretty much it Elenna. Having linked roles or narrator confirmed townies definitely makes outside conversation a huge tool for town. Mass claiming is bad for ball.


I don't have any, right now, though Xi said she's in touch with the vig iirc. Am I mixing this up with another game, or do we have open qt communication here? No one's reached out to me, understandably, but that stuck out to me. Are factions the only ones that know other players roles right now? Out of game talk came up a bunch recently, and it would be tough for me to try to find the exact posts to prove or disprove myself.


Appreciate that. Day 1 claims? Sheesh, that's a dangerous role to put out there if a Mindslaver is in play.


I intend to read those during the night phase. I suggest everyone else takes a look as well.
But the more interesting posts are probably how other players talked about Flat. Unfortunately they are harder to find.

[rogue_alchemist]

Alright, I agree that speculating who is what is a bad idea at night, so I'll stay away from that topic, but I have some thoughts on this whole who benefits from information and how much to reveal before being lynched.

So we have narrator confirmed discards, which is for sure the pairing of faction and power that was dealt. Then when a person gets lynched we have the power/role combination that that person chose (as well as what they ended up, if they were recruited by the cult) that is also narrator confirmed. The only missing bit of info is what faction was on the power card you chose as well as what power was on the faction card you chose. So by stating what factions you were dealt, we can pilfer through later in the game and try to decide who might be what faction. I think it would be beneficial for EVERYONE to claim what three factions they were dealt. Then as people flip in the night from NKs or from lynching, we can use the town flipped people as probably truthful and the non-townies as only partially truthful (they have to at least state the correct card they discarded, or else it is too easy to catch them in a lie). I agree with AV's analysis above about the likely distribution of cards based on past games and this games discards. Maybe my original statement about the most likely chance to hit scum D1 using town discard wasn't generally true, but I feel like this is 2 empirical data points where we can see that more scum was behind town discards than town was. It feels harder to do that kind of statistical analysis on the scum discards because it comes down to if someone has a preference for one of the scum teams or the town.

As far as claiming powers dealt, there is only 1 power missing from each person after they die, so I still think it would help town by claiming the full measure of what you were dealt about 1-1.5 hours before EOD if you are up for a lynch so we can know what is out there. I can't see how more info hurts town. I know scum has their network that they can all compare with and so they start with more info, but knowing 1 more power that was discarded doesn't seem to really help them more than the 2 that will already be out there.

I would love to hear other people's thoughts on this and where I may be wrong or not considering some important angle.

[Rogan]

I think it would be beneficial for EVERYONE to claim what three factions they were dealt. Then as people flip in the night from NKs or from lynching, we can use the town flipped people as probably truthful and the non-townies as only partially truthful (they have to at least state the correct card they discarded, or else it is too easy to catch them in a lie).

I would love to hear other people's thoughts on this and where I may be wrong or not considering some important angle.

One important question first.
Do you mean claim right now? Or only if you are about to die to a lynch.

[JeenLeen]

Are you suggesting everyone claim alignment cards dealt now (or at least at daybreak) or near death?
I can see either working well. Baddies might lie, but they might lie regardless of the plan. Whoever got dealt Serial Killer (even if they didn't pick it) might be inclined to lie, as having been dealt it would give suspicion you picked it. I guess Survivor might feel a touch similar, if they don't want that known, but I think the risks of them revealing are low.
I can see an argument for now, as potentially a lot of folk might die tonight.

I think I'm persuaded about revealing the power portion of cards near death. If you'd be so near death you'd claim to try to stay alive, you might as well say your cards, too.

[rogue_alchemist]

Also someone please protect me tonight from the likely nk, I am glad town was able to get a scum (and a pretty big power too) off the table, but if I die (or am roleblocked) tonight, I won't be able to provide much in the future either. I think Flat flipping Alien Overseer should prove that I am not also Alien Overseer at the very least, so if I have accurate faction info, then I must be town, as the other scum teams can't provide that info.

- - - Updated - - -


One important question first.
Do you mean claim right now? Or only if you are about to die to a lynch.


Are you suggesting everyone claim alignment cards dealt now (or at least at daybreak) or near death?
I can see either working well. Baddies might lie, but they might lie regardless of the plan. Whoever got dealt Serial Killer (even if they didn't pick it) might be inclined to lie, as having been dealt it would give suspicion you picked it. I guess Survivor might feel a touch similar, if they don't want that known, but I think the risks of them revealing are low.
I can see an argument for now, as potentially a lot of folk might die tonight.

I think I'm persuaded about revealing the power portion of cards near death. If you'd be so near death you'd claim to try to stay alive, you might as well say your cards, too.

Yea, I figure claim faction now, as Jeen said, we are likely to have lots of deaths (unless everyone just tried to kill me and I get super murdered). I agree we can assume baddies are gonna lie no matter what and the info doesn't become useful until way later in the game when we are trying to find the last few baddies, but it is good to have it now. I can also see claiming something false now if you are survivor/serial killer (or discarded those cards), and only revealing the truth when it gets closer to a lynch for you if you suddenly feel like helping town.

[JeenLeen]

I think I'm persuaded to giving my alignment cards, but I'll wait at least an hour to see if anybody gives a good counter-argument.

The only way this potentially helps the baddies is that it might help the baddies pinpoint how many are in a rival faction.
On the other hand, how baddies lie about their cards might help us catch someone in a lie. Though that's doubtful as they will get to see what folk have already said and craft their lies appropriately, and it's not like it's obviously non-Town if someone refuses or waits to participate.
If this was a game with private QTs (and I'm glad it's not), I could see someone asking everyone to QT them their alignment cards privately, and we'd probably get some sets of "well, of these two or three people, someone must be lying" and help us pinpoint a baddie... but, well, glad we don't need to contemplate that level of work.

[AvatarVecna]

I think I'm persuaded to giving my alignment cards, but I'll wait at least an hour to see if anybody gives a good counter-argument.

The only way this potentially helps the baddies is that it might help the baddies pinpoint how many are in a rival faction.
On the other hand, how baddies lie about their cards might help us catch someone in a lie. Though that's doubtful as they will get to see what folk have already said and craft their lies appropriately, and it's not like it's obviously non-Town if someone refuses or waits to participate.
If this was a game with private QTs (and I'm glad it's not), I could see someone asking everyone to QT them their alignment cards privately, and we'd probably get some sets of "well, of these two or three people, someone must be lying" and help us pinpoint a baddie... but, well, glad we don't need to contemplate that level of work.

Ah yes, "we".

[Rogan]

I think I'm persuaded about revealing the power portion of cards near death. If you'd be so near death you'd claim to try to stay alive, you might as well say your cards, too.

If you are about to die and actually die (to a lynch or a nk), your claim will get confirmation. The other parts won't be confirmed. So the claim might help staying alive for the lynch, which is good for town and the poor guy on the chopping block. But I thought there was a consensus about roles helping scum more than town?


Also someone please protect me tonight from the likely nk, I am glad town was able to get a scum (and a pretty big power too) off the table, but if I die (or am roleblocked) tonight, I won't be able to provide much in the future either. I think Flat flipping Alien Overseer should prove that I am not also Alien Overseer at the very least, so if I have accurate faction info, then I must be town, as the other scum teams can't provide that info.

You could be a cultists and would gain accurate information. Unless you discarded cult. Did you? Going to check...
Okay, you did. So your statement seems correct

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Also someone please protect me tonight from the likely nk, I am glad town was able to get a scum (and a pretty big power too) off the table, but if I die (or am roleblocked) tonight, I won't be able to provide much in the future either. I think Flat flipping Alien Overseer should prove that I am not also Alien Overseer at the very least, so if I have accurate faction info, then I must be town, as the other scum teams can't provide that info.


Flat_footed flipping Alien means you are less likely Alien (probably).

Once you give us an accurate scry on Day 2, we'll know that you were Town (or Alien) on Night 1. Cult throws in a wrinkle but that's easy to deal with - the first day you don't give us an accurate Alignment we know you've been converted and will lynch you the next day (or shoot at night).

[Rogan]

Cult throws in a wrinkle but that's easy to deal with - the first day you don't give us an accurate Alignment we know you've been converted and will lynch you the next day (or shoot at night).

Cult gets an accurate alignment as well. Even more accurate, since they can't be foiled by a framer.

[Batcathat]

Once you give us an accurate scry on Day 2, we'll know that you were Town (or Alien) on Night 1. Cult throws in a wrinkle but that's easy to deal with - the first day you don't give us an accurate Alignment we know you've been converted and will lynch you the next day (or shoot at night).

Maybe this is a stupid question, but how do we tell it's an accurate scry without any sort of functioning town network? Couldn't rogue just claim to scry one of his hypothetical werewolf/mafia/cult buddies and then have them "confirm" it?

[gac3]

Okay. So some elaboration on what I meant about the cult.

There are up to 7 factions in the game. Town, Mafia, Werewolf, Alien, Cult, Survivor, Serial Killer

Here is my understanding of each faction and their threat level to town and their threat level to non-town. The last column I marked as EOME for enemy of my enemy. That's the threat to non-town section. I'll rank their threat level out of 7. 1 being not a threat and 7 being kill as soon as possible.



Faction
Threat
EOME


Town
2
2


Mafia
5/6
3/4


Werewolf
5/6
3/4


Alien
3*
5*


Cult
4*
6*


Survivor
1
1


Serial Killer
7
7




Survivor is ranked as less of a threat to town than town because a survivor's only goal is to live.

Aliens are a low threat based completely on whether town should be more afraid of enemy info gathering or killing. Alien's might have a kill but it's nothing overly special, while the wolves/mafia do. So I ranked them low because the discussion tended towards "information helps town" more than "information helps baddies". So that led me to rank them low based on the fact that they gather information mainly and can't kill. Definitely a threat and could easily be ranked higher if baddie info gathering is deemed worse than baddie killing.


With these rankings, I'm not saying cult isn't a threat but of the baddie factions they should be a much bigger target for the wolves than for the town. Because it's the only faction that can grow and if town numbers are accurate, they could become the majority easily. While this isn't good for anyone who does town and I'm not saying we shouldn't fight back against cult, I'm saying that the bigger threats (like the other factions) are a bigger danger to town than they are to each other. So they are our problem. Let the wolves/mafia/aliens worry about the cult at first.

**See my notes spoiler for why I am not pushing the same point about Aliens.

[Rogan]

Maybe this is a stupid question, but how do we tell it's an accurate scry without any sort of functioning town network? Couldn't rogue just claim to scry one of his hypothetical werewolf/mafia/cult buddies and then have them "confirm" it?

Best case, he shouts scum, we kill scum and they flip.
Does not work that good for a town scry

[JeenLeen]

Ah yes, "we".

"We" can legitimately mean "all players". I was actually thinking mostly of folk like me and you, who may tend to spend too much time on thinking through plays and schemes. I'm sincerely glad the lack of QTs prevents such shenanigans, since otherwise I might feel inclined to try them.

But I get how that could look like a wolfy slip of the tongue.

[gac3]

"We" can legitimately mean "all players". I was actually thinking mostly of folk like me and you, who may tend to spend too much time on thinking through plays and schemes. I'm sincerely glad the lack of QTs prevents such shenanigans, since otherwise I might feel inclined to try them.

But I get how that could look like a wolfy slip of the tongue.

Based on the person who called you out, I don't think they were suspecting you of being Wolfy based on that. I am under the impression based on things they said in the PJ game that they very much feel like that "we" should have been "Avatar Vecna" and they aren't entirely wrong.

[JeenLeen]

Based on the person who called you out, I don't think they were suspecting you of being Wolfy based on that. I am under the impression based on things they said in the PJ game that they very much feel like that "we" should have been "Avatar Vecna" and they aren't entirely wrong.

Ah, fair point.
And now I probably made myself look super-wolfy by responding defensively about it :smalltongue:

[Rogan]

"We" can legitimately mean "all players". I was actually thinking mostly of folk like me and you, who may tend to spend too much time on thinking through plays and schemes. I'm sincerely glad the lack of QTs prevents such shenanigans, since otherwise I might feel inclined to try them.

But I get how that could look like a wolfy slip of the tongue.


Based on the person who called you out, I don't think they were suspecting you of being Wolfy based on that. I am under the impression based on things they said in the PJ game that they very much feel like that "we" should have been "Avatar Vecna" and they aren't entirely wrong.

I am with gac here. "We" seemed to be AV making clear she did most of the towns work last game.

[totadileplayz]

Faction
Threat
EOME


Town
2
2


Mafia
5/6
3/4


Werewolf
5/6
3/4


Alien
3*
5*


Cult
4*
6*


Survivor
1
1


Serial Killer
7
7



Hmm, an argument could be made that while cultist's do convert town this isn't technically a bad thing for the townies, as it's a simple change in win-con. While, I wouldn't like to be converted to cultist, they're unlikely to want any town to die unlike any other faction as that means a member-to-be is gone. Cultists are motivated to help town, as they are a future team-mate. Aliens do not care about town, and is fine with lying to kill a townie if it's a net-gain for them a Cultist would never want to kill a townie besides to save their own team-mate. I believe that as a Result Town is better aided by cultists as they actually care about townies being alive, compared to the Aliens uncaring decisions for self-winning. Yes, they grow, but a change in win-con does not mean a townie loses just changes how they play the game.

I'd personally not like to be a cultist, but if I did it's better then aliens misdirecting a lynch or nk onto me something a Cultist wouldn't wish to do.

[Rogan]

Ah, fair point.
And now I probably made myself look super-wolfy by responding defensively about it :smalltongue:

I thought about it for a moment, but didn't think you would fall for it that easily.
You were not a member of town core and I don't know how much you did read after the game. So it is plausible you didn't realize how much AV had done.

[AvatarVecna]

Okay. So some elaboration on what I meant about the cult.

There are up to 7 factions in the game. Town, Mafia, Werewolf, Alien, Cult, Survivor, Serial Killer

Here is my understanding of each faction and their threat level to town and their threat level to non-town. The last column I marked as EOME for enemy of my enemy. That's the threat to non-town section. I'll rank their threat level out of 7. 1 being not a threat and 7 being kill as soon as possible.



Faction
Threat
EOME


Town
2
2


Mafia
5/6
3/4


Werewolf
5/6
3/4


Alien
3*
5*


Cult
4*
6*


Survivor
1
1


Serial Killer
7
7




Survivor is ranked as less of a threat to town than town because a survivor's only goal is to live.

Aliens are a low threat based completely on whether town should be more afraid of enemy info gathering or killing. Alien's might have a kill but it's nothing overly special, while the wolves/mafia do. So I ranked them low because the discussion tended towards "information helps town" more than "information helps baddies". So that led me to rank them low based on the fact that they gather information mainly and can't kill. Definitely a threat and could easily be ranked higher if baddie info gathering is deemed worse than baddie killing.


With these rankings, I'm not saying cult isn't a threat but of the baddie factions they should be a much bigger target for the wolves than for the town. Because it's the only faction that can grow and if town numbers are accurate, they could become the majority easily. While this isn't good for anyone who does town and I'm not saying we shouldn't fight back against cult, I'm saying that the bigger threats (like the other factions) are a bigger danger to town than they are to each other. So they are our problem. Let the wolves/mafia/aliens worry about the cult at first.

**See my notes spoiler for why I am not pushing the same point about Aliens.

Town should be 1 or 5/6. Either we're ranking them on theorycrafting (in which case Survivor can side with scum, where town is only anti-town by accident) or we're acknowledging how much town can accidentally shoot itself in the foot, in which case it needs to be much much higher.

Also, I guess this could be a very accidental Survivor claim lol


"We" can legitimately mean "all players". I was actually thinking mostly of folk like me and you, who may tend to spend too much time on thinking through plays and schemes. I'm sincerely glad the lack of QTs prevents such shenanigans, since otherwise I might feel inclined to try them.

But I get how that could look like a wolfy slip of the tongue.

Wasn't intended as a scum callout as much as like...

"Oh yeah somebody would be setting those up if it were allowed. And if they did, we would be working so hard trying to decipher the info it resulted in."

We know who somebody is. And we know who all "we" would be. :smalltongue:

[EmmyNecromancer]

Like I said, I got a Mafia Roleblocking card, Cult JOAT card, and Town Tracking Card. I discarded the Mafia Roleblocking Card.

[AvatarVecna]

Like I said, I got a Mafia Roleblocking card, Cult JOAT card, and Town Tracking Card. I discarded the Mafia Roleblocking Card.

So you're claiming Cult Tracker, then? :smalltongue:

- - - Updated - - -


Ah, fair point.
And now I probably made myself look super-wolfy by responding defensively about it :smalltongue:

Honestly responding defensively is kinda NAI, but that you keep doing this "I guess that makes me look scummy lol oh well" is setting me off. :smalltongue:

[gac3]

Like I said, I got a Mafia Roleblocking card, Cult JOAT card, and Town Tracking Card. I discarded the Mafia Roleblocking Card.


....... I know this was claimed earlier. Did somebody ask to repeat? Or is this an unprovoked reminder?


Town should be 1 or 5/6. Either we're ranking them on theorycrafting (in which case Survivor can side with scum, where town is only anti-town by accident) or we're acknowledging how much town can accidentally shoot itself in the foot, in which case it needs to be much much higher.

Also, I guess this could be a very accidental Survivor claim lol



Wasn't intended as a scum callout as much as like...

"Oh yeah somebody would be setting those up if it were allowed. And if they did, we would be working so hard trying to decipher the info it resulted in."

We know who somebody is. And we know who all "we" would be. :smalltongue:

Valid points. I hadn't considered Survivor siding with baddies. Mainly because they would have to know who one was to do that I guess.

- - - Updated - - -


So you're claiming Cult Tracker, then? :smalltongue:

- - - Updated - - -



Honestly responding defensively is kinda NAI, but that you keep doing this "I guess that makes me look scummy lol oh well" is setting me off. :smalltongue:

Doesn't Seem always do that though?

[JeenLeen]

It's nice to get heat at night when folk are picking NKs, as it makes the killers lest likely to kill you in case they think someone else might do the job for them.

So now is the perfect time to look scummy by being regretful about looking scummy.

[Rogan]

It's nice to get heat at night when folk are picking NKs, as it makes the killers lest likely to kill you in case they think someone else might do the job for them.

So now is the perfect time to look scummy by being regretful about looking scummy.

And now you tell the plan to add another layer to the deception? Don't you get dizzy from all the wine in front of you?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Cult gets an accurate alignment as well. Even more accurate, since they can't be foiled by a framer.


Mafia or Cult Spy: Once per night, you can choose one target. You learn that target's ROLE TYPE.

Cult gets Role Type, not Alignment. If/after Rogue becomes Cult (goes rogue?) he won't get alignment anymore and will have to guess at someone else's Alignment or give up a Cult member to look like he's still getting accurate results.



Maybe this is a stupid question, but how do we tell it's an accurate scry without any sort of functioning town network? Couldn't rogue just claim to scry one of his hypothetical werewolf/mafia/cult buddies and then have them "confirm" it?

If RA gives us an evil alignment we lynch the target - if the alignment matches RA's claim we can trust him. If he gives us an ally buddy (RA is a Wolf and says x is a Wolf) then we falsely trust Apogee but that team is down a member.

[Rogan]

Cult gets Role Type, not Alignment. If/after Rogue becomes Cult (goes rogue?) he won't get alignment anymore and will have to guess at someone else's Alignment or give up a Cult member to look like he's still getting accurate results.



They get an accurate read by CONVERTING someone. Or trying to do so.

- - - Updated - - -

From OP

The cult have a factional conversion. Once per night, any one member of the cult can choose a target to use their conversion ability on. Any time the cult use their ability on a member of the town, that player joins the cult. Any time the cult use their ability on anyone else, the cult is informed of the faction (but not the role) of the target.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

They get an accurate read by CONVERTING someone. Or trying to do so.

Ah, that's fair.

[JeenLeen]

Eh, been an hour and no good reasons not to claim.

Claiming time: Survivor.
Had Town, Town, Survivor. With a Communicate Power. So, by daybreak I should be able to pretty much prove I'm not lying about being Survivor. This should give me an easy, if boring, win. Probably good with real life being busy.

---

I was hoping to wait to claim until counterclaiming someone claiming Survivor, since that'd be fun. (I was sad flat_footed didn't go that route.) But as I win when the game ends (as long as I'm alive), and the game ends faster if other people die faster, I figured I should claim lest someone waste a NK on me.
I do kinda regret not keeping my alignment secret, so that Townies might think I'm a Townie and care about Town winning, as that sort of manipulation might be fun... but with a potential 4 NKs tonight (mafia, werewolf, town vig, serial killer), I'm thinking making sure those aren't wasted is more important to my winning.

And, for what it's worth, if I was Town, I probably would have voted bladescape after his vig claim. The timing of his claim and his banter with Aventine rang scummy to me, not that Aventine feels much more towny than bladescape.
But I want bladescape around killing folk if he is really the Town Vig.
I feel like the Town just sorta lucked into wagoning onto flat_footed. But I'll stay pro-Town by not speculating more on that angle.

---

Also, D2 starts Saturday afternoon for me...
I'll probably be inactive most of D2, but should be around most of Monday.

[AvatarVecna]

If last game is any indication, Neutral!JeenLeen townsides even when it's in his best interests not to do so.

EDIT: Which naturally means I now suspect he's the serial killer.

[JeenLeen]

If last game is any indication, Neutral!JeenLeen townsides even when it's in his best interests not to do so.

EDIT: Which naturally means I now suspect he's the serial killer.

Prediction: D2 or D2, the Serial Killer comes up for lynch. They claim Survivor, and I get lynched as the test. :smalltongue:
But I should be able to prove I'm not the serial killer come morning.

Question to Unavenger: if someone performs their factional NK, they can still use their other power on another target. Right?
Slightly worried about a Serial Killer Roleblocker voiding me while killing someone, so it pegged on me.
Also throwing this out here for any trackers: if you see someone targeted two people, I think it necessarily means they are a NKer.