Mysterium Mafia

[CaoimhinTheCape]

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.pinimg.com%2F736x%2F01%2F2d%2F5 9%2F012d592fb3870c6eb82f27b5ae94e914--game-logo-logo-design.jpg&f=1&nofb=1



1st August, 1922

My request has been accepted by a dozen colleagues of mine, who arrived at the Manor today. I will be staying in the Manor with them, hoping that the spiritual energy of the place will help make the culprits clear.

However, we have already run into an issue where three of those I invited set out to join us did not arrive. I have received word that they died on their journey here. However, most worrying is that there was evidence that at least one of them had ties to the mafia.

I worry that some of the other guests I invited are similarly aligned...


CaoimhinTheCape







17th July, 1922

Esteemed Colleague,

I write to you in the hopes that you will be free to assist me in a case at Manor of the Count of Warwick. Not long ago Lady Warwick was found dead in her home. Her death has been investigated by the police and ruled her death as a result of "natural causes". However, in the course of my own investigation I have sensed a supernatural energy about the manor and I believe Lady Warwick's spirit to be trapped here, unable to move on.

As a fellow psychic, I ask that you meet me at Warwick Manor to help me solve this murder. I suspect that organized crime is involved though I do not yet know how... Hopefully, with the number of psychics present the visions from any ghosts will be clearer.

If you are able, please respond to this letter as soon as possible.

Yours,

CaoimhinTheCape



Welcome! This is a game of Mafia/Werewolf in which players are assigned to one of two sides: Town or Mafia. The Mafia's goal is to eliminate all members of the Town, or at least enough that nothing can prevent this. The Town must discuss and vote out all of the Mafia members.

During the Day Phase players are allowed to talk in the main thread on these forums. During this time all the players try to decide who the bad guys are by voting for them. Votes are done in bold red text. You may change your vote if you wish, in which case, you should edit your previous post and strike-through your previous vote. Once the day has ended, whoever has the most votes is removed from the game (Lynched). In the event of a tie, common practice is to lynch whichever player reached that number of votes first.

Day Phase will last 48 hours.

Auto-lynches: If a player fails to post in the main thread for 2 Day phases, they will be auto-lynched. If you will be unable to get online to post in your games for some period of time, you should notify the narrator(s) in advance, either in-thread or via PM.

During the Night Phase you may continue to speak in thread, but there will be no voting. During this Phase, the Mafia will privately communicate to discuss who they would like to kill and remove from the game.

Night Phase will last 24 hours.




This game is unique in that when you die, you can still participate in the game. Though only living players may communicate in the main thread, the ghosts have unique abilities that may still help the Town.

When you die, you will be told the names of everyone in the Mafia. Then, you will be given access to a chat for your alignment (Town or Mafia).

Town Ghosts will be given a set of Visions that they can choose from to send to the players and hint at who is in the Mafia. Each Night, Town Ghosts can discuss and send up to 3 Visions to the Town, which will be shown to everyone at the start of the Day Phase. Any Visions you send will be replaced with new Visions as options for the next Night.

Mafia Ghosts will also be given a set of Visions they can choose from to send to the players to confuse them. These visions will be sent to the players as well, with nothing to distinguish Mafia Visions from Town Visions.

Below is an example of what Visions will look like:

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Players

Rogan - Killed Night 1
Book Wombat - Lynched Day 1
AvatarVecna
flat_footed - Lynched Day 4
bladescape - Killed Night 3
Xihirli - Killed Night 2
FarmerBink
Aventine 3SecondCultist
Apogee1 - Lynched Day 3
gac3 - Lynched Day 2
Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze - Killed Night 4


Pre-Deceased Players

Batcathat
Elenna
Grand Arbiter




Please Don't Post until I reply to the thread! It takes some time for threads to be approved by the moderators and appear here. Want to make sure everyone is set before people start posting.

Day 1 will be at least 48 hours long but the timer won't start until my next post.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh, wow, that was fast.


Day 1 Begins! It will last until Tuesday August 2nd, 10:00 PM EST (~49 hours from now)

[AvatarVecna]

Snowblaze.

[Book Wombat]

An eight!
3SecondCultist.

[flat_footed]

Oh, wow, that was fast.

The lack of Mod action for these threads was definitely a factor in me going for the badge. :smalltongue:

Rogan. Number 1 on the list, seems a shame not to follow the narrator's guidance.

[gac3]

Book Wombat because why not? You always live so long.

[bladescape]

At this point it's tradition.

Snowblaze

[Snowblaze]

Let's get a Book Wombat wagon going. I will avenge bladescape, even if he'd rather get me killed.

[Rogan]

Players

Rogan
Book Wombat
AvatarVecna
flat_footed
bladescape
Xihirli
FarmerBink
3SecondCultist
Apogee1
gac3
Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze


Pre-Deceased Players

Batcathat
Elenna
Grand Arbiter



Let's see... not going to vote for me, Book already has votes and I liked his last game, so let's give him a chance.
AV should have a chance to play and enjoy the game instead of being a random wagon day 1.
Flat died early quite often, so no, not going to go there...
Blades was the first to die last game, in hilarious circumstances. Not going to get my first vote.
Xihirli... now we are getting somewhere, but let's check the rest of my list.
Farmer, 3sec, Apogee and Kraken are new-ish or back after a break. Don't want to go there without good reason.
Gac feels fine as a target. Snow would be a classic for day 1.

Since I think it's too early for a wagon with 3 players, Snow is out right now. So let's go with my first hunch:

Xihirli

[Snowblaze]

So that means you might try and get me killed later, Rogan? I have a sense of impending doom. And speaking of psychic senses...

Yes. Supernatural energy was here, all right. There was clearly at least one spirit trapped here. She would need a little while to get to know the spiritual atmosphere of this place before risking any further divinations.

What disturbed her were the three deaths of her fellow psychics. That was not a coincidence. Someone didn't want this investigation to take place, and that someone was prepared to kill to make it happen.

And there was suspicion surrounding the thirteen living psychics here, and even the fact that there were thirteen of them was a bad omen. Everyone knew the stories of what happened when a dozen and one sat at the same table.

This was unlikely to end well.

(Counting Caoimhin as the thirteenth of our party purely so I can reference the superstition.)

[Rogan]

So that means you might try and get me killed later, Rogan? I have a sense of impending doom. And speaking of psychic senses...


That's worded a bit too strong, I guess.
It means I don't see any Meta reasons stopping me to accept your death day 1. So if during the day I start to suspect you or come to the conclusion that your death would yield info, I'll go for you. If you want to avoid this, make me believe you are town or give me a better target. The usual thing, really.

Also, nice RP. Maybe I'll try some as well, when I've got more time. That's assuming I'll find more time... Might take till tomorrow.

[Snowblaze]

Snowblaze 2: AvatarVecna, bladescape
Book Wombat 2: gac3, Snowblaze
3SecondCultist 1: Book Wombat
Xihirli 1: Rogan
Rogan 1: flat_footed

gently pokes thread with stick

[AvatarVecna]

I feel like one of the reasons Snowblaze tends to survive the D1 slaughter is because people's initial votes go on Snow, but then they get real votes later in the day, that are more authentic and grounded in reason. To that end, I'm going to move my vote from Snowblaze to Snowblaze, to try and game the system.

[bladescape]

Bwuh?

I'm sick don't poke me.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I'm going to abstain (No Lynch) and sit here while I await a message from beyond - don't know enough about you all to know who's acting suspicious yet!

As a newer player, is there a benefit to voting Day 1? It seems like we're more likely to hit town than maf.

[Book Wombat]

I'm going to abstain (No Lynch) and sit here while I await a message from beyond - don't know enough about you all to know who's acting suspicious yet!

As a newer player, is there a benefit to voting Day 1? It seems like we're more likely to hit town than maf.

To prompt discussion and maybe make some (un)pairings.

[Snowblaze]

Bwuh?

I'm sick don't poke me.
unpokes bladescape


I'm going to abstain (No Lynch) and sit here while I await a message from beyond - don't know enough about you all to know who's acting suspicious yet!

As a newer player, is there a benefit to voting Day 1? It seems like we're more likely to hit town than maf.

Basically what Wombat said. Yes, we're more likely to hit town, but the way to find wolves is to generate discussion and the way to generate discussion is to vote people and see what happens.

(This does have less merit in this particular game. Though given the existence of fake visions going off those and nothing else is unlikely to end well.)

[3SecondCultist]

3SecondCultist

[Farmerbink]

A short-haired, sweat drenched man with unkempt clothes and a haggard stare literally stumbles through the door. "Gods alive, it's worse than the armpit of satan out there! Now which one of you bastards cut the wiring to my air-conditioner?!" He stares around angrily, suspiciously at the gathered mediums. "Spent three days getting parts for that thrice-d@mned box, and it's been over 100 every day!" He grumbles, irritable.

Slumping into a chair, a small puddle immediately begins to form where the sweat running down his back drips of the hem of his shirt. "You. I blame you. Yeah, I know you probably didn't do it, but I'm in no mood to think too seriously, and I don't like your shirt," Book Wombat

I don't want to get known as the guy who always vote for the first guy to vote, so I'm voting for the second guy to vote! Neat, huh?! Also, he killed me last game after I explicitly warned him, and I'm not salty at all about it.

(In all seriousness, I'm not, but it amuses me to complain in jest)

[Snowblaze]

Me: wait, AV crossed out their vote? Are they doing what they did in Percy Jackson again?

Also me: AV literally made a whole post about switching from me to me, so is currently still voting me.

Kind of want to give 3SC townpoints for the self-vote but can't actually put together an argument that doesn't fall apart when I look at it.

Farmerbink, you (iirc) mentioned wanting me dead D1 in recruitment thread; given that, why are you not currently trying to kill me?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Just want to jump in and mention that Elenna and Batcathat have joined the dead chat and have chosen opposite sides to be on, so no matter who is lynched today there may be both Town aligned and Mafia aligned visions that will appear at the beginning of Day 2.

[Apogee1]

Good midafternoon.

I'll take the bait -- 3SecondCultist.

[3SecondCultist]

Kind of want to give 3SC townpoints for the self-vote but can't actually put together an argument that doesn't fall apart when I look at it.

What can I say, I’m an agent of chaos… :smallamused:

[gac3]

Just want to jump in and mention that Elenna and Batcathat have joined the dead chat and have chosen opposite sides to be on, so no matter who is lynched today there may be both Town aligned and Mafia aligned visions that will appear at the beginning of Day 2.

That's interesting. Good to know I guess. Now even if we are on the money today, we still get some positive visions.

[bladescape]

I'm going to abstain (No Lynch) and sit here while I await a message from beyond - don't know enough about you all to know who's acting suspicious yet!

As a newer player, is there a benefit to voting Day 1? It seems like we're more likely to hit town than maf.

Information is the name of the game, and while visions mitigate some of the requirement it still is better.

I have caught wolves off how they acted around the day 1 wagon, even when it was 3 towns up for being voted out. (Snow might remember this game as the game I cced her as vanilla town =P)

[Xihirli]

3SecondCultist

Well, you would know. 3SecondCultist it is.
That said, I hope I die soon so I can be a ghost
OOOOOh

[gac3]

Well, you would know. 3SecondCultist it is.
That said, I hope I die soon so I can be a ghost
OOOOOh

Pretty standard Xi. Also big town lean because I hold to Xi only expresses a desire to die when they are town.

[bladescape]

Pretty standard Xi. Also big town lean because I hold to Xi only expresses a desire to die when they are town.

They were wolf with me in the first game I played with them last year and they expressed an interest in dying then I'm pretty sure.

[Snowblaze]

Good midafternoon.

I'll take the bait -- 3SecondCultist.
Hmm. Kind of want to say self-awareness makes this less wolfy.


Information is the name of the game, and while visions mitigate some of the requirement it still is better.

I have caught wolves off how they acted around the day 1 wagon, even when it was 3 towns up for being voted out. (Snow might remember this game as the game I cced her as vanilla town =P)
And then we proceeded to mindmeld on literally everything. Was fun.

They were wolf with me in the first game I played with them last year and they expressed an interest in dying then I'm pretty sure.
Having ISOd original-Percy-Jackson-Xihirli, she actually didn't. At least, not in the main thread and the QTs are forever lost. Her game was mostly frustration at being lynched over the vig who'd just shot the Seer and the Snowblaze who was one step short of outed wolf.

That being said I think gac has talked about Xihirli only wanting to die/advocating mass murder as town enough that she's undoubtedly aware of it and could adapt to do that as wolf.

Telling Xihirli to bold her votes is becoming a recurring theme now.

So yeah, I have no reads beyond various hedgy half-formed thoughts. I would like to not kill the newbie D1, though.

3SecondCultist 4: Book Wombat, 3SecondCultist, Apogee1, Xihirli
Book Wombat 3: gac3, Snowblaze, Farmerbink
Snowblaze 2: AvatarVecna, bladescape
Rogan 1: flat_footed
Xihirli 1: Rogan
No Lynch 1: Let'sGetKraken

And that's twelve. Everyone's checked in.

[gac3]

They were wolf with me in the first game I played with them last year and they expressed an interest in dying then I'm pretty sure.

Welp. Then fewer town points.

Also... Why is 3 second cultists the top wagon? Is there logic here or is this a meme wagon because they voted themselves?

[Snowblaze]

Welp. Then fewer town points.

Also... Why is 3 second cultists the top wagon? Is there logic here or is this a meme wagon because they voted themselves?

See both my correction of that and my counterpoint to your read.

And it does appear to be purely a meme wagon.

(I was about to ask if you were interested in jumping on the Wombat counterwagon and then I remembered you're already voting Wombat. My brain is not functioning this game.)

Do you think the 3SC votes are wolfy?

[bladescape]

Book Wombat

Wagon reasons

[Book Wombat]

Funny thing is that if there were no pre-dead players, it would be more beneficial for a member of the Town to be lynched first.

[Rogan]

Having ISOd original-Percy-Jackson-Xihirli, she actually didn't. At least, not in the main thread and the QTs are forever lost. Her game was mostly frustration at being lynched over the vig who'd just shot the Seer and the Snowblaze who was one step short of outed wolf.

So yeah, I have no reads beyond various hedgy half-formed thoughts. I would like to not kill the newbie D1, though.

3SecondCultist 4: Book Wombat, 3SecondCultist, Apogee1, Xihirli
Book Wombat 3: gac3, Snowblaze, Farmerbink
Snowblaze 2: AvatarVecna, bladescape
Rogan 1: flat_footed
Xihirli 1: Rogan
No Lynch 1: Let'sGetKraken

And that's twelve. Everyone's checked in.

Oh yeah, that vig was totally wolfy, he should have died immediately! How could he dare shooting the Seer? But do you really think Snow was wolfy? She was totally neutral after all!

I agree about not killing a newbie. In fact I'm surprised about the number of votes.



Do you think the 3SC votes are wolfy?

Not the person asked, but here are my thoughts anyway:
Books vote was the random day 1 start. Even being the counterwagon now, the vote is not telling much.
3Sces self vote... can't parse this. I guess a wolf wouldn't want to get that much attention, especially on the first try. No idea why town would self vote either.
Apogee and his bait comment... I guess slight town points.
Xihirli is someone who will get a wolf read from me more often than a Town read. Sorry about this. But I would guess she is the most likely wolf on this wagon. But there is not much substance to this read.

We should keep in mind that right now, there is a simple way to get away from being the top wagon (tied right now, if I remember correctly) by changing the self vote. This in addition to the Meta of not killing new players (which I've mentioned in my first post this game, so it would be known to the new players in question) makes me think that 3sec is not in any real danger, while book should start to sweat a bit.


Funny thing is that if there were no pre-dead players, it would be more beneficial for a member of the Town to be lynched first.

Now, this reminds me about a question I've wanted to ask. @Everyone, but especially you, Book:

What do you think would be the optimal way to use the visions? Both in the hypothetical scenario of "no wolf visions" and in the real scenario of "we are guaranteed to get visions from both sides".

Aspects I could think about are number of visions send and concentration on one team member while keeping hints on the other wolves to hand them out later.

- - - Updated - - -

Updated vote count
3SecondCultist 4: Book Wombat, 3SecondCultist, Apogee1, Xihirli
Book Wombat 4: gac3, Snowblaze, Farmerbink, bladescape
Snowblaze 1: AvatarVecna
Rogan 1: flat_footed
Xihirli 1: Rogan
No Lynch 1: Let'sGetKraken

[3SecondCultist]

Full honesty: I voted myself purely to mess with Kraken, to see how far he would overthink it. It got some traction, which is not surprising, but it was a funny play.

I’ll change my vote to Book Wombat to try to save myself.

[Xihirli]

Pretty standard Xi. Also big town lean because I hold to Xi only expresses a desire to die when they are town.


They were wolf with me in the first game I played with them last year and they expressed an interest in dying then I'm pretty sure.

But could I come back as a ghost in that one?
OoooOooooH

[Book Wombat]

Now, this reminds me about a question I've wanted to ask. @Everyone, but especially you, Book:

What do you think would be the optimal way to use the visions? Both in the hypothetical scenario of "no wolf visions" and in the real scenario of "we are guaranteed to get visions from both sides".

Aspects I could think about are number of visions send and concentration on one team member while keeping hints on the other wolves to hand them out later.

There will always be six visions sent, three from each faction. It isn't that each ghost sends one.
I think the optimal way to utilized ghost knowledge is to cheat just see what happens. I don't think discussing strategies would help much, basically becoming Jesus with the amount of wine pouring.

--

If I die today, it will have been the first time I die on Day One. There's a first for everything after all!

- - - Updated - - -

Hmm, thinking about it a bit more maybe the best strategy for Town ghosts would be to send three as similar relevant visions as possible. If the mafia does the same, it becomes a choice between two "vision groups" rather than six.

[Snowblaze]

Eh, I don't really know what we can do about the visions. It depends a lot on what cards come up, and without knowing that I don't think we can plausibly make plans.

Slightly concerned at the size of the Wombat wagon and the lack of much resistance to it, but currently lacking better ideas.

Does anyone have any wolfreads yet? (And if so, who?)

[Let'sGetKraken]

Thank you all for the answers! I'll join in on the voting, then.



Xihirli is someone who will get a wolf read from me more often than a Town read. Sorry about this. But I would guess she is the most likely wolf on this wagon. But there is not much substance to this read.


Even if it's lacking substance - in the absence of any available evidence, changing my vote from no one to Xihirli.



3Sces self vote... can't parse this. I guess a wolf wouldn't want to get that much attention, especially on the first try. No idea why town would self vote either.


Yeah I can't tell if this is purely a chaos play that a wolf wouldn't make because it's too risky, or if this is the sort of thing Cultist might do precisely to trick us all into thinking he's too suspicious to possibly be a wolf, or if he knows that we know that he'll do that so this is him actually being town after all because he knows that he would eventually be dismissed and cleared, or...


Full honesty: I voted myself purely to mess with Kraken, to see how far he would overthink it.
I think it might be working :smalltongue:

[Snowblaze]

Xihirli. Let's see if we can get some information out of this day, at least.

EOD is middle of the night my time, so in case I don't make it back... I would appreciate not being last-minute wagoned, and I have no reads of any confidence for a legacy.

[Rogan]

There will always be six visions sent, three from each faction. It isn't that each ghost sends one.
I think the optimal way to utilized ghost knowledge is to cheat just see what happens. I don't think discussing strategies would help much, basically becoming Jesus with the amount of wine pouring.

--

If I die today, it will have been the first time I die on Day One. There's a first for everything after all!

- - - Updated - - -

Hmm, thinking about it a bit more maybe the best strategy for Town ghosts would be to send three as similar relevant visions as possible. If the mafia does the same, it becomes a choice between two "vision groups" rather than six.

I've interpreted the OP in a way which would allow each side to send between 0 and 3 visions. So there could be theoretical less than 3 visions per team. But yeah, I'm not sure if this would be relevant, so I'd guess your 6 vision days expectation will hold true most of the time.
About the wine part, I guess if a strategy can be countered if know, it's better to keep this to yourself. But something like 'concentrate on one wolf' seems like a good advice without much risk.

Thanks for your input.

Updated vote count
3SecondCultist 3: Book Wombat, Apogee1, Xihirli
Book Wombat 54: gac3, Snowblaze, Farmerbink, bladescape, 3SecondCultist
Snowblaze 1: AvatarVecna
Rogan 1: flat_footed
Xihirli 23: Rogan, Let'sGetKraken, Snowblaze

Let me take a look at the top wagon:
Gac is still on his first vote with the reason "book lives long". Not wrong, but NAI.
Snow wanted a wagon and revenge for last game. Seems typical for her. Doesn't even allow for an unpairing, cause Snow is perfectly willing to vote her partners.
Farmers explanation for the vote sounds a bit forced to me. Anyone else who wants to comment on this? But I don't feel confident, cause I didn't really get to play with him, cause somehow, I'll always end up as being suspicious.
Blades vote was meant to tie the wagons. Typical behavior again. NAI.
3Sec himself claimed self preservation. Question: Why did you go to the biggest counter wagon directly, when moving your vote away from you would have been sufficient?

[Book Wombat]

I've interpreted the OP in a way which would allow each side to send between 0 and 3 visions. So there could be theoretical less than 3 visions per team. But yeah, I'm not sure if this would be relevant, so I'd guess your 6 vision days expectation will hold true most of the time.

Uhhh, oops?
*sweats*

[Rogan]

Uhhh, oops?
*sweats*

This wasn't supposed to be a criticism, don't worry. Just wanted to make sure we are on the same page rules wise.
Does my interpretation change anything in your analysis?

[3SecondCultist]

3Sec himself claimed self preservation. Question: Why did you go to the biggest counter wagon directly, when moving your vote away from you would have been sufficient?

Because doing so meant a better chance at survival. If I was tied for first, then it would make the most sense - mathematically speaking - to raise the other highest wagon by the same amount to ensure I would not get killed D1 because of my own dumb joke.

[Xihirli]

Okay, looking at this more seriously, we want to kill an established player today that a lot of us can interpret the vague pictures of.
If we get a wolf, great. But my dream team of dream givers has people I've played in a lot of games with and can more easily interpret the signs of.
So my preferred kill list, in no particular order:

AvatarVecna
flat_footed
Xihirli
Apogee1
gac3
Snowblaze

- - - Updated - - -

Therefore, in order to advance someone on my list up to dying, I will join the wagon on Xihirli.

[Apogee1]

I mean, I voted 3second more-or-less on the presumption he wanted something like what he's claimed regarding kraken to happen.

Although, I'm now swirling that he outed that plan shortly before kraken returned who in turn reacted ... how he would have predicted. It's too on the nose to be w/w in my experience, but something around that feels a bit performative.

Then again, maybe that's not a bad thing either.

[Snowblaze]

I don't really get how "3SC self-voted to mess with people" leads to "I should vote 3SC". Explain?

[Book Wombat]

This wasn't supposed to be a criticism, don't worry. Just wanted to make sure we are on the same page rules wise.
Does my interpretation change anything in your analysis?

Mmm, I know. Was just dumb of me.
But not really, in fact it makes it easier for town to send a group of similar visions, if there are any :eek:.

[Farmerbink]

Farmerbink, you (iirc) mentioned wanting me dead D1 in recruitment thread; given that, why are you not currently trying to kill me?

He looks up suddenly. "I did? I mean, I've not slept a lot since then, and what sleep I got was muddled and worthless. I believe you, but I don't remember. All jokes aside, you're a dangerous potential wolf, but you're a valuable potential town, too. I got nothing."

What can I say, I’m an agent of chaos… :smallamused:

The sweaty man snorts. "Can confirm," he grumbles, with a raised index finger.

Funny thing is that if there were no pre-dead players, it would be more beneficial for a member of the Town to be lynched first.

:|

-_-

:|

That's hilarious, and totally true.

Yeah I can't tell if this is purely a chaos play that a wolf wouldn't make because it's too risky, or if this is the sort of thing Cultist might do precisely to trick us all into thinking he's too suspicious to possibly be a wolf, or if he knows that we know that he'll do that so this is him actually being town after all because he knows that he would eventually be dismissed and cleared, or...

Listening intently, he begins to chuckles quietly. "Oh, I absolutely do not trust 3Sec," the haunted psychic mumbles. "He lives for this kind of thing! Whether he's killing us all or equally desperate for survival, he's more than mad enough to enjoy the trip either way!" :smallbiggrin:

[Apogee1]

I don't really get how "3SC self-voted to mess with people" leads to "I should vote 3SC". Explain?

I was, at the time of a vote, fishing for a reaction from 3SC based on the premise that he probably self voted to fish for reactions.

I am now questioning if that premise holds or rather what I think of it.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

There will always be six visions sent, three from each faction. It isn't that each ghost sends one.

Hmm, thinking about it a bit more maybe the best strategy for Town ghosts would be to send three as similar relevant visions as possible. If the mafia does the same, it becomes a choice between two "vision groups" rather than six.

Clarification: Town Ghosts as a collective will be able to send 0-3 Visions. Mafia Ghosts as a collective will be able to send 0-3 Visions.

I will take all chosen Visions, shuffle them, and present all of them to the living players together at the start of the next Day.



Once these Visions are sent I'll do some stuff on the Ghost side to make sure they don't run out of cards and they will repeat this process of choosing visions during the Night and having them revealed at the beginning of each Day Phase.

[gac3]

Okay, looking at this more seriously, we want to kill an established player today that a lot of us can interpret the vague pictures of.
If we get a wolf, great. But my dream team of dream givers has people I've played in a lot of games with and can more easily interpret the signs of.
So my preferred kill list, in no particular order:

AvatarVecna
flat_footed
Xihirli
Apogee1
gac3
Snowblaze

- - - Updated - - -

Therefore, in order to advance someone on my list up to dying, I will join the wagon on Xihirli.

I really like this logic. I really do. I was going to make a case for "what about Elenna and Bat" but now that I think about it, we don't know which is which so the idea of knowing who is sending the messages would be helpful. That said, I'm still not sure I'm interested in murdering someone I've got a town lean on just because I don't trust Bat to help me. (I've arbitrarily assumed Bat chose town and Elenna chose wolves. For no reason at all. It is just my guess that may or may not turn out right.)

[AvatarVecna]

FoS on Xihirli.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Day 1 has ended! Going to double check the votes, phase change will be in a minute or two.

- - - Updated - - -



2nd August, 1922

Two Days into the investigation and we have no hard evidence. None of the others have reported having Visions either, making me concerned that I have invited them here for naught.

It seems, though, that they agree that some of their own are involved with those responsible for the murder here. The others believed that Book Wombat was one of the parties responsible and took matters into their own hands. However, upon inspection of his belongings, I could find no evidence of evil doings.

I hope that our investigation takes a turn for the better.


CaoimhinTheCape




Book Wombat was Town.

*Note: Book and Xi both had 4 votes, but Book had reached that number of votes first.

Night 1 Begins! It will last until Wednesday, August 3rd, 10:00 PM EST (~24 hours from now)



As a note for newer players, you are allowed to continue talking in thread during the Night Phase if you would like.

[gac3]

See both my correction of that and my counterpoint to your read.

And it does appear to be purely a meme wagon.

(I was about to ask if you were interested in jumping on the Wombat counterwagon and then I remembered you're already voting Wombat. My brain is not functioning this game.)

Do you think the 3SC votes are wolfy?

Votes? Did they cast multiple at that point?

I don't really see the self voting as inherently wolfy. My internal meta usually says it's a good sign. Though that's also usually with some of the players I know better.

- - - Updated - - -

Day feels like it went so fast.

[Farmerbink]

"I see nothing. I know nothing. I'm going to sleep. Maybe it'll make more sense tomorrow."

The now only mostly-sweaty man prowls off into the dark mansion, ostensibly to find a suitable place to rest.

[Rogan]

Votes? Did they cast multiple at that point?

Day feels like it went so fast.

I think, Snow meant the votes for them, being a wagon and all.

And I agree, the day felt quite short. I think, it was missing activity, especially during the end phase.
Everybody voting for Book in the end, please let me know why you stayed there. (You may wait till day 2, of course)

For the new players, night talk is (obviously) allowed, but it's usually better to be careful about the things you say. Things you should avoid are
- any hints about power roles
- alignment reads (unless it's a legacy post near EoN)
If you are wondering if my hint about not hinting at PRs is a hint in itself, keep wondering!
(If anyone is wondering why I'm online right now: a bad habit of staying awake far too long)

[bladescape]

I think, Snow meant the votes for them, being a wagon and all.

And I agree, the day felt quite short. I think, it was missing activity, especially during the end phase.
Everybody voting for Book in the end, please let me know why you stayed there. (You may wait till day 2, of course)

For the new players, night talk is (obviously) allowed, but it's usually better to be careful about the things you say. Things you should avoid are
- any hints about power roles
- alignment reads (unless it's a legacy post near EoN)
If you are wondering if my hint about not hinting at PRs is a hint in itself, keep wondering!
(If anyone is wondering why I'm online right now: a bad habit of staying awake far too long)

So basically don't do this.

Hi, I'm seer.

- - - Updated - - -

Everyone ready to find out who my super surprise scumread on D2 will be this game?

I certainly am.

[Snowblaze]

Right. I have questions.

- gac, I did in fact mean the votes on 3SC.

- Apogee, what do you now think of your premise?

- bladescape, thoughts on Rogan?

- AV, why did you FoS Xihirli instead of actually voting her?

Also I counterclaim Seer.

(Feel free to wait until day phase to answer these if you prefer.)

[bladescape]

- bladescape, thoughts on Rogan?

Murd-her? Why! I barely knew her!

[Snowblaze]

Well. Sending others across the veil was one way of solving their problem. If the passed on turned out to be one of the criminals that might or might not be among them, so much the better. If they did not... at least there was someone more to send them visions which could help.

Who to send on was a different matter. There had been much division amongst the group. She supported the one person who had volunteered for the task, but others had overruled her. They'd settled on a quiet, bookish man. Many had suggested the way he kept to himself was suspicious.

It was not, though: he was hiding no secrets and was exactly what he seemed. She would have to commune with his spirit, now. If she could just get a vision, it would help her to solve this mystery.

[bladescape]

Also I'm not going to lie.

I was tempted to move off book.

Then I remembered how he accidentally killed me on D1 last game =P

[Snowblaze]

Also I'm not going to lie.

I was tempted to move off book.

Then I remembered how he accidentally killed me on D1 last game =P

Who would you have voted instead?

[AvatarVecna]

Right. I have questions.

- gac, I did in fact mean the votes on 3SC.

- Apogee, what do you now think of your premise?

- bladescape, thoughts on Rogan?

- AV, why did you FoS Xihirli instead of actually voting her?

Also I counterclaim Seer.

(Feel free to wait until day phase to answer these if you prefer.)

I didn't realize how close we were to EoD.

[gac3]

Right. I have questions.

- gac, I did in fact mean the votes on 3SC.

Also I counterclaim Seer.

(Feel free to wait until day phase to answer these if you prefer.)

- That... Actually makes a lot more sense. I will get back to you on the answer though. I'll look more closely and see. Instinct though, it was more "I don't understand" than anything though since Book was the other wagon and died, that makes the votes inherently less suspicious as a whole I think.

Also crap, I need to catch up. We have two seer claims?

- - - Updated - - -

Oh. I see. I got you. I'm hip. I'm game. I'm cool. Actually no. I'm still confused but I almost have a theory.

[bladescape]

Who would you have voted instead?

Was considering didn't come to a conclusion before I decided that I was going to be petty. :smalltongue:

[AvatarVecna]

I think I wanna go ahead and claim Mason. Guess who my buddy is.

[3SecondCultist]

I don't understand the Seer and Mason claims. Are there different roles within Town?

[Xihirli]

I’ll claim Baner while we’re at it. Throw Devil in there somewhere as well.

[gac3]

I don't understand the Seer and Mason claims. Are there different roles within Town?

I explain later vanillager... Maybe... I'm only 35% sure I understand why we have decided to claim.

I'll claim Necromancer.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I don't understand the Seer and Mason claims. Are there different roles within Town?

I think it's all just for fun? But after your stunt day 1, you're absolutely Tanner.

[3SecondCultist]

I think it's all just for fun? But after your stunt day 1, you're absolutely Tanner.

Guilty as charged, cutie.

[AvatarVecna]

Clarifying, since it's getting late. I'm not sure how I feel about a game where (even more so than usual) town's power lies in their ability to analyze incomplete and possibly malicious information, but I very much know how to feel about somebody who sees that setup and wants me gone.

[gac3]

Clarifying, since it's getting late. I'm not sure how I feel about a game where (even more so than usual) town's power lies in their ability to analyze incomplete and possibly malicious information, but I very much know how to feel about somebody who sees that setup and wants me gone.

*Note, check who AV is talking about.*

Another reason I didn't vote Xi. I'm still town reading them and since the available visions are limited anyways, I'd rather have the players I trust most helping make sense of them than helping send them. Though my opinion on. Xi's self voting argument may change once we see these visions and I see how easy/hard they seem to be to analyze.

- - - Updated - - -




Do you think the 3SC votes are wolfy?

Well not really? Not saying the people can't be wolves but four people voted that wagon and there was only one competing wagon. Since we know said competing wagon was a townie, I don't see any reason to assume this wagon was wolf motivated or anything. People on it could be wolves but I don't think the suddenness of the wagon or the votes themselves are wolf indicative.

[AvatarVecna]

*Note, check who AV is talking about.*

Another reason I didn't vote Xi. I'm still town reading them and since the available visions are limited anyways, I'd rather have the players I trust most helping make sense of them than helping send them. Though my opinion on. Xi's self voting argument may change once we see these visions and I see how easy/hard they seem to be to analyze.

It's not a matter of who you trust more. Regardless of whether a wolf or townie had gotten lynched, there'd be at least one person sending bad visions from the afterlife (Bat or Elenna, whichever is scumteaming). Xihirli's point was that, if we're going to lynch a townie anyway, we may as well lynch a townie who we think we could interpret messages from. It's not about "I trust AV more than others", it's about "I understand AV more than I understand others". Because Xi can't ask me what I mean by sending this vision or that vision, and in fact can't know for certain that I'm personally responsible for sending any vision. What can maybe help the interpretation process is "I know AV well enough that I think town!AV would've chosen to send this particular image for this particular purpose, and that's why I know I should lynch Snowblaze". But if our example six-image vision is anything to go by, I'm not sure I could trust myself to say "i know why Xi sent these pictures", even if I knew for a fact that Xi was 1) town and 2) the only person who sent pictures. And I would only know one of those for a fact. Not knowing which person sent which pictures makes trying to rig the picture-sending process an exercise in futility.

Additionally, Xihirli knowing that I might've chosen to send a picture doesn't necessarily help her with figuring out why I sent that picture, because she doesn't know what my other options were - and that's if she knows for a fact which images were even sent by me, which she couldn't.

The only real way we have of rigging the interpretation process in our favor is to have the people who are best at interpreting vague nonsense into cogent theory on the "living" side of the equation. No matter who is sending images, it's gonna be vague nonsense. What we need is somebody who is good at interpreting vague nonsense. That's me (to a slight degree), but honestly if I were picking one person who's demonstrated the ability to 4D chess their way into solving a puzzle despite having vague, sometimes contradictory, and even maliciously-designed information...it's Xihirli.

I do not trust that Xihirli wanted me off the board of interpreters. I do not trust that Xihirli tried to remove herself from the board of interpreters.

- - - Updated - - -


but honestly if I were picking one person who's demonstrated the ability to 4D chess their way into solving a puzzle despite having vague, sometimes contradictory, and even maliciously-designed information...it's Xihirli.


Also Xihirli Wins, just because they were the only person on town's side that made us feel like they really appreciated the game by putting in consistent effort and thought into it. And for being right basically all the time, even about things they thought they were lying about or were amazing leaps of logic from what little information they had at the time.

This game was a mind****. Everybody had a power, and it flipped on its head when they died, but nobody was told that's what was happening, and nobody knew which player had died, only which rolename had died, but dying didn't mean you stopped participating in the game. Xihirli was getting berries and citrus fruits for scry results and figured it out despite the game's very premise was not only designed around denying town information, but actively misinforming them. And Xi figured it out.

[gac3]

It's not a matter of who you trust more. Regardless of whether a wolf or townie had gotten lynched, there'd be at least one person sending bad visions from the afterlife (Bat or Elenna, whichever is scumteaming). Xihirli's point was that, if we're going to lynch a townie anyway, we may as well lynch a townie who we think we could interpret messages from. It's not about "I trust AV more than others", it's about "I understand AV more than I understand others". Because Xi can't ask me what I mean by sending this vision or that vision, and in fact can't know for certain that I'm personally responsible for sending any vision. What can maybe help the interpretation process is "I know AV well enough that I think town!AV would've chosen to send this particular image for this particular purpose, and that's why I know I should lynch Snowblaze". But if our example six-image vision is anything to go by, I'm not sure I could trust myself to say "i know why Xi sent these pictures", even if I knew for a fact that Xi was 1) town and 2) the only person who sent pictures. And I would only know one of those for a fact. Not knowing which person sent which pictures makes trying to rig the picture-sending process an exercise in futility.

Additionally, Xihirli knowing that I might've chosen to send a picture doesn't necessarily help her with figuring out why I sent that picture, because she doesn't know what my other options were - and that's if she knows for a fact which images were even sent by me, which she couldn't.

The only real way we have of rigging the interpretation process in our favor is to have the people who are best at interpreting vague nonsense into cogent theory on the "living" side of the equation. No matter who is sending images, it's gonna be vague nonsense. What we need is somebody who is good at interpreting vague nonsense. That's me (to a slight degree), but honestly if I were picking one person who's demonstrated the ability to 4D chess their way into solving a puzzle despite having vague, sometimes contradictory, and even maliciously-designed information...it's Xihirli.

I do not trust that Xihirli wanted me off the board of interpreters. I do not trust that Xihirli tried to remove herself from the board of interpreters.

- - - Updated - - -





This game was a mind****. Everybody had a power, and it flipped on its head when they died, but nobody was told that's what was happening, and nobody knew which player had died, only which rolename had died, but dying didn't mean you stopped participating in the game. Xihirli was getting berries and citrus fruits for scry results and figured it out despite the game's very premise was not only designed around denying town information, but actively misinforming them. And Xi figured it out.

No I get you. When I said trust though (at least in this instance) it wasn't about town or wolf as much as "trust them to help make sense of things". For instance town or not, despite being a good player, I didn't trust book to help with the visions on the living end, the way I do with a potentially town Xi.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I forgot about phase change... gimme 5

[AvatarVecna]

Also, "35%" mmmm I think that percentage should really be higher.

[gac3]

Also, "35%" mmmm I think that percentage should really be higher.

Assuming that was referencing me, I always under state my confidence percentages. I could see something happen and go "I'm 70% sure this happened"

- - - Updated - - -

Over 50 means I'm more confident than doubtful.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

3rd August, 1922

I am pleased to say that we all seem to have seen images as the sun began to rise. Everyone seems to have seen the same scenes, now it is up to us to make sense of them..

In worse news, it seems that the Mafia continues to attack those they deem a threat. Rogan did not wake up this morning. Once more, we look to those with us to find the guilty.


CaoimhinTheCape




Rogan was Town.

Day 2 Begins! It will last until Friday, August 3rd, 10:00 PM EST (~48 hours from now)

https://cf.geekdo-images.com/oxTAi8uvgROtwftyodhEzg__imagepage/img/Br__ZSPZjp4ihZLPyceydEJhB-0=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860626.jpghttps://cf.geekdo-images.com/xoMPGrI9vb-2a2BsXqFO1g__imagepage/img/9jv43dO0Hu7qEuOG_yKYg_q9KIk=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860643.jpghttps://cf.geekdo-images.com/Tm2-jrMaBddDEe0EITYN7Q__imagepage/img/gcwj1wo3dpJoWGea7PQHRT9p35g=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860651.jpghttps://cf.geekdo-images.com/UvVbcDYnV2b_5EGojYsipw__imagepage/img/cSUko01sF-njDbT8vub-VlztmbE=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860694.jpg

[gac3]

Okay... Before I analyze these pictures to death:

Was the thing about tie votes just leftover?

Second to get a vote out there on someone less active until I come up with a real reason Apogee

- - - Updated - - -

Ninja'd on the first thing.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, for some reason I thought it was going to be 6 images.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Okay... Before I analyze these pictures to death:

Was the thing about tie votes just leftover?



Also, for some reason I thought it was going to be 6 images.

Haha, I copy/pasted from the end of Day 1 and left the tie votes thing in. That wasn't relevant.

Each group of ghosts (Town and Mafia) can send 0-3 images. So minimum of 0 images each morning, maximum of 6. I can not confirm how many came from either group.

[gac3]

Haha, I copy/pasted from the end of Day 1 and left the tie votes thing in. That wasn't relevant.

Each group of ghosts (Town and Mafia) can send 0-3 images. So minimum of 0 images each morning, maximum of 6. I can not confirm how many came from either group.

Ah! That makes sense.

- - - Updated - - -

Okay. I need some big brains. Part of me is like "what if it's hint towards our names" and then the best I got was water for Kracken? If that's a farm house in the sand maybe farmer? Though that wouldn't help for people like me? How could a picture hint towards my name when it's just my initials? So maybe they relate to posts we've made? I'll try to look and see if that holds up.

- - - Updated - - -

I'll probably check that later since I start work in a couple minutes.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Interesting. So we know that between 1-3 of these are decoys. A few themes that immediately spring to mind are vehicles (3) and the sky (3). Two also feature animals. One features what looks like a field (Bink), but that could easily be obfuscation. Any thoughts on these themes?

It feels more likely that town would send multiple visions, since there are multiple wolves to hint towards, and that wolves would want to focus visions on getting someone voted out unfairly... but then again, wolves would want to obfuscate and town might want to focus on the strongest available evidence. Hm.

[flat_footed]

AvatarVecna
flat_footed
bladescape
Xihirli
FarmerBink
3SecondCultist
Apogee1
gac3
Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze

Interesting that there are only 4 pictures. If I was sending messages, I would try to point at one player in particular with however many messages made sense. My initial reads line up pretty well with gac3, Farmer and Kraken are the two that spring to mind.

FarmerBink

[gac3]

Interesting. So we know that between 1-3 of these are decoys. A few themes that immediately spring to mind are vehicles (3) and the sky (3). Two also feature animals. One features what looks like a field (Bink), but that could easily be obfuscation. Any thoughts on these themes?

It feels more likely that town would send multiple visions, since there are multiple wolves to hint towards, and that wolves would want to focus visions on getting someone voted out unfairly... but then again, wolves would want to obfuscate and town might want to focus on the strongest available evidence. Hm.

You say that, but I'm still struggling to understand what town knows and how it could translate into these pictures.

- - - Updated - - -

To clarify I meant what "dead town knows"

[Let'sGetKraken]

AvatarVecna
flat_footed
bladescape
Xihirli
FarmerBink
3SecondCultist
Apogee1
gac3
Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze

Interesting that there are only 4 pictures. If I was sending messages, I would try to point at one player in particular with however many messages made sense. My initial reads line up pretty well with gac3, Farmer and Kraken are the two that spring to mind.

FarmerBink

True! There is a strong water-themed vision. I own mysterium though and roughly 40% of the cards have water on them in some capacity, so there's going to be some inevitable collateral there. Won't deny that I should be on the list though!

Going to refrain from voting until a few others have had a chance to chime in. Forgot that flat_footed was here, there's a strong enough vehicle theme that I'm starting there until otherwise convinced.

Also, if anyone has characters in their sig, might be worth seeing if they match up well against any of the visions?

Edit: to Gac3 - Doesn't dead town know who the wolves are? I thought that was the whole point of the visions.

[bladescape]

Snowblaze

Why did you rand wolf?

Also AV, Xi is 95% town. Stop.

[AvatarVecna]

Snowblaze

Why did you rand wolf?

Also AV, Xi is 95% town. Stop.

Should've made me.

[bladescape]

Should've made me.

Wut.

Also I literally called out Rogan was gonna be the nightkill amusingly enough

[Snowblaze]

Snowblaze

Why did you rand wolf?

Also AV, Xi is 95% town. Stop.

...I didn't.

Also I may or may not have had a vague half-formed wolfread on Rogan that I was planning to talk about today, so... lolme, I guess?

Anyway. Reads. (This is before paying serious attention to the visions.)

awkward silence

Okay, I have no reads in which I have any confidence. I'll work on that. But first, visions!

- - - Updated - - -

First image: flame, water, sky, bicycle, house, field, blue, yellow, burning house
Second image: balloon, sky, figure in black who kind of reminds me of a wizard, blue, red
Third image: river, fishing, carriage, bridge, white horse, figure pushing the carriage looks witchy, grey-green-yellow haze
Fourth image: lion, woman in white looking through telescope, airship, field, men below holding... life-ring (what do you call those things), oar and paper of some sort, yellow, brown

And we know that at least one image is real and one fake.

...great.

Yeah, these are about as subjective as I thought.

- - - Updated - - -

Two fields makes Farmerbink the most obvious candidate. If the witches and wizards are an actual theme then I'm the one with a wizard for an avatar so... that might explain why bladescape wolfreads me?

Not really seeing how you get from "vehicles" to "flat_footed", Kraken. Please explain.

- - - Updated - - -

Also I didn't mention that there are camels in the last image. On the unlikely chance camels are relevant to anything.

- - - Updated - - -

Okay. I'm not getting anywhere with visions, so... normal solving,I guess.

- - - Updated - - -

Time to ask even more questions!

flat, does "my initial reads line up pretty well with gac3" mean you wolfread them, and if so why?

gac, talk about your theory about the claims stuff.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, flat, you need to bold your vote.

- - - Updated - - -

I can find reasons to wolfread Farmerbink if I squint hard enough but then I have to wonder "am I just forcing a wolfread because the visions point to him" and that leads to constantly second-guessing myself.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm just scrolling through the thread and barely reading anything, let alone parsing anything.

Going to take a break, get answers to my questions and turn things over in my head.

[flat_footed]

Time to ask even more questions!

flat, does "my initial reads line up pretty well with gac3" mean you wolfread them, and if so why?

gac, talk about your theory about the claims stuff.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, flat, you need to bold your vote.


Actually no, just the opposite. Coming from a town viewpoint, someone having the first two conclusions I did has me give gac3 a slight town lean. Subject to either of those being accurate and either being a wolf; hard to say at this point.

And yes, thank you. Corrected.

[Snowblaze]

Now you've said that it seems obvious and I really should have realised without having to ask. My brain is not functioning this game.

Also I do have vague townleans; unfortunately those are bladescape and Xihirli, two of the players I'm paranoid about on general principle.

[gac3]

True! There is a strong water-themed vision. I own mysterium though and roughly 40% of the cards have water on them in some capacity, so there's going to be some inevitable collateral there. Won't deny that I should be on the list though!

Going to refrain from voting until a few others have had a chance to chime in. Forgot that flat_footed was here, there's a strong enough vehicle theme that I'm starting there until otherwise convinced.

Also, if anyone has characters in their sig, might be worth seeing if they match up well against any of the visions?

Edit: to Gac3 - Doesn't dead town know who the wolves are? I thought that was the whole point of the visions.

Oh. They might know who the wolves are? That would make sense. Has that been confirmed? My point is more "I have no idea what they know. For all we know they have the ability to see the wolf chat? Have a list of wolves? Have to work on their own reads? I have no idea, which makes it a little harder to figure out what angle to look at the visions from. Probably safe to assume they have a list of wolves though.


Snowblaze

Why did you rand wolf?

Also AV, Xi is 95% town. Stop.

Agreed on Xi. Pretty heavy town lean on them. Because they feel like town Xi.


...I didn't.

Also I may or may not have had a vague half-formed wolfread on Rogan that I was planning to talk about today, so... lolme, I guess?

Anyway. Reads. (This is before paying serious attention to the visions.)

awkward silence

Okay, I have no reads in which I have any confidence. I'll work on that. But first, visions!

- - - Updated - - -

First image: flame, water, sky, bicycle, house, field, blue, yellow, burning house
Second image: balloon, sky, figure in black who kind of reminds me of a wizard, blue, red
Third image: river, fishing, carriage, bridge, white horse, figure pushing the carriage looks witchy, grey-green-yellow haze
Fourth image: lion, woman in white looking through telescope, airship, field, men below holding... life-ring (what do you call those things), oar and paper of some sort, yellow, brown

And we know that at least one image is real and one fake.

...great.

Yeah, these are about as subjective as I thought.

- - - Updated - - -

Two fields makes Farmerbink the most obvious candidate. If the witches and wizards are an actual theme then I'm the one with a wizard for an avatar so... that might explain why bladescape wolfreads me?

Not really seeing how you get from "vehicles" to "flat_footed", Kraken. Please explain.

- - - Updated - - -

Also I didn't mention that there are camels in the last image. On the unlikely chance camels are relevant to anything.

- - - Updated - - -

Okay. I'm not getting anywhere with visions, so... normal solving,I guess.

- - - Updated - - -

Time to ask even more questions!

flat, does "my initial reads line up pretty well with gac3" mean you wolfread them, and if so why?

gac, talk about your theory about the claims stuff.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, flat, you need to bold your vote.

- - - Updated - - -

I can find reasons to wolfread Farmerbink if I squint hard enough but then I have to wonder "am I just forcing a wolfread because the visions point to him" and that leads to constantly second-guessing myself.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm just scrolling through the thread and barely reading anything, let alone parsing anything.

Going to take a break, get answers to my questions and turn things over in my head.

Well... My original theory was it was a "shoot me wolves, no shoot me, no shoot me" kind of thing but then people kept saying it was just fun so I'm thinking I'm wrong.


Someone mentioned Mysterium being a real thing... Do the cards have specific meaning in the game? Like is this an "additional research may help" thing?

[Snowblaze]

Book Wombat 4: gac3, Farmerbink, 3SecondCultist, bladescape
Xihirli 4: Rogan, Let'sGetKraken, Snowblaze, Xihirli
Snowblaze 1: AvatarVecna
3SecondCultist 2: Book Wombat, Apogee1
Rogan 1: flat_footed

Running wagonomics assuming town!Xihirli.

The only possible wolf on the Xihirli wagon is Kraken fmpov. I don't necessarily think that's wolfy given that Wombat was clearly lead wagon before the Xihirli one got going and wolves wouldn't particularly care about saving him, but there's been a couple of minor pings on Kraken and I have nothing better to go on...

Wolves on Wombat wagon... gac is doing weird gac stuff and is nullish though they have a lot of posts so I should probably ISO them. I don't want to do ISOs, though.

Farmerbink is... probably slightly below null but that could just be because of the visions which are definitely influencing my reads and I don't really want them to.

3SC is just an ??? at the moment. Slight townlean if I squint but I don't really believe in it.

And bladescape, as I mentioned, is a townlean. Because I feel like wolf!bladescape would try to influence stuff a lot more than he did on D1, and that he wouldn't try to mislynch me without a lot more threadstate control than he currently has. (Though, you know, paranoia.)

AV is... AV. Part of me thinks posting walls about general strategy is towny for them but I've miscleared AV enough I don't want to actually townread them for it.

Apogee exists. Possibly a slight wolflean if I squint hard enough.

flat is... fine, I guess? Don't particularly want to kill him today.

So this turned into a general reads list instead of wagonomics despite my lack of reads.

Right, should actually talk about Xihirli, I think wolf!her is significantly less likely to advocate for her own death than town!her.

Anyway. Should vote someone. Farmerbink since we should get some wagons moving and I want to see how he responds to pressure.

[bladescape]

I do have reasons for my read, of which none of them have been guessed or will probably be guessed.

I think farmerbink is likely the scapegoat of things

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The whole "Two fields" argument is kinda amusing because if you consider from our recently departed townfolk and his ghostly friend's point of view, do you really think that vague fields that don't even properly look like farmed fields is what would be the correct line to lead us to farmerbink?

[Snowblaze]

I do have reasons for my read, of which none of them have been guessed or will probably be guessed.

I think farmerbink is likely the scapegoat of things

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The whole "Two fields" argument is kinda amusing because if you consider from our recently departed townfolk and his ghostly friend's point of view, do you really think that vague fields that don't even properly look like farmed fields is what would be the correct line to lead us to farmerbink?

...are you going to tell me what your reasons are?

Also how do "Farmerbink is the scapegoat" and "the two fields isn't a valid argument" fit together?

For me scapegoat -> mafia framing -> the images are intended to lead us to Farmerbink -> the argument itself isn't invalid, just who the visions came from.

(I don't think the visions alone are sufficient evidence to kill someone but I don't have reasons to townread Farmerbink independently of them and we need to have wagons.)

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Part of me wants to play "guess why bladescape wolfreads me" but also I'm not going to case myself for him.

So... time to dig into the ISOs, I guess?

- - - Updated - - -



A short-haired, sweat drenched man with unkempt clothes and a haggard stare literally stumbles through the door. "Gods alive, it's worse than the armpit of satan out there! Now which one of you bastards cut the wiring to my air-conditioner?!" He stares around angrily, suspiciously at the gathered mediums. "Spent three days getting parts for that thrice-d@mned box, and it's been over 100 every day!" He grumbles, irritable.

Slumping into a chair, a small puddle immediately begins to form where the sweat running down his back drips of the hem of his shirt. "You. I blame you. Yeah, I know you probably didn't do it, but I'm in no mood to think too seriously, and I don't like your shirt," Book Wombat

I don't want to get known as the guy who always vote for the first guy to vote, so I'm voting for the second guy to vote! Neat, huh?! Also, he killed me last game after I explicitly warned him, and I'm not salty at all about it.

(In all seriousness, I'm not, but it amuses me to complain in jest)
RP is NAI. Random-ish vote is... who actually was the first person to vote? AV, for me. There was no AV wagon at that point, but there was a two-vote Wombat wagon already existing.

Didn't his first vote last game also involve jumping on a wagon? It did, so I can't really suspect him for doing the same thing he did as town.

It wasn't what I expected, but I can understand the process and can't really justify a wolfread.


He looks up suddenly. "I did? I mean, I've not slept a lot since then, and what sleep I got was muddled and worthless. I believe you, but I don't remember. All jokes aside, you're a dangerous potential wolf, but you're a valuable potential town, too. I got nothing."


The sweaty man snorts. "Can confirm," he grumbles, with a raised index finger.


:|

-_-

:|

That's hilarious, and totally true.


Listening intently, he begins to chuckles quietly. "Oh, I absolutely do not trust 3Sec," the haunted psychic mumbles. "He lives for this kind of thing! Whether he's killing us all or equally desperate for survival, he's more than mad enough to enjoy the trip either way!" :smallbiggrin:
Forgetting about voting for me is probably NAI. I could nitpick calling me a potential valuable town without having prior experience of my town meta, but that feels like too much of a stretch.

Not trusting 3SC makes sense considering their talk in recruitment means they know each other from other parts of the forum.


"I see nothing. I know nothing. I'm going to sleep. Maybe it'll make more sense tomorrow."

The now only mostly-sweaty man prowls off into the dark mansion, ostensibly to find a suitable place to rest.
NAI.



So... that is not as concerning as I thought, I don't really believe my arguments that any of this is actively wolfy.

Eh. Keeping my vote there until I come up with a better idea or until he shows up and does towny stuff.

[bladescape]

...are you going to tell me what your reasons are?

Also how do "Farmerbink is the scapegoat" and "the two fields isn't a valid argument" fit together?

For me scapegoat -> mafia framing -> the images are intended to lead us to Farmerbink -> the argument itself isn't invalid, just who the visions came from.

(I don't think the visions alone are sufficient evidence to kill someone but I don't have reasons to townread Farmerbink independently of them and we need to have wagons.)

Scapegoat = "Oh we can pretend that these things say this even when it doesn't make a strong case and people will follow"

[Snowblaze]

I'm going to abstain (No Lynch) and sit here while I await a message from beyond - don't know enough about you all to know who's acting suspicious yet!

As a newer player, is there a benefit to voting Day 1? It seems like we're more likely to hit town than maf.
Fairly standard for a newbie. I don't remember seeing a new wolf doing this but also I can't remember the last time I saw a new wolf full stop. Slightest of town points?


Thank you all for the answers! I'll join in on the voting, then.

Even if it's lacking substance - in the absence of any available evidence, changing my vote from no one to Xihirli.

Yeah I can't tell if this is purely a chaos play that a wolf wouldn't make because it's too risky, or if this is the sort of thing Cultist might do precisely to trick us all into thinking he's too suspicious to possibly be a wolf, or if he knows that we know that he'll do that so this is him actually being town after all because he knows that he would eventually be dismissed and cleared, or...

I think it might be working :smalltongue:
I could argue going along with Rogan's not-particularly-strong Xihirli case is wolfy; less strong an argument given newness. Paranoia is NAI.


I think it's all just for fun? But after your stunt day 1, you're absolutely Tanner.
NAI.

Interesting. So we know that between 1-3 of these are decoys. A few themes that immediately spring to mind are vehicles (3) and the sky (3). Two also feature animals. One features what looks like a field (Bink), but that could easily be obfuscation. Any thoughts on these themes?

It feels more likely that town would send multiple visions, since there are multiple wolves to hint towards, and that wolves would want to focus visions on getting someone voted out unfairly... but then again, wolves would want to obfuscate and town might want to focus on the strongest available evidence. Hm.
I disagree with this method of vision interpretation but also don't think it's particularly AI.


True! There is a strong water-themed vision. I own mysterium though and roughly 40% of the cards have water on them in some capacity, so there's going to be some inevitable collateral there. Won't deny that I should be on the list though!

Going to refrain from voting until a few others have had a chance to chime in. Forgot that flat_footed was here, there's a strong enough vehicle theme that I'm starting there until otherwise convinced.

Also, if anyone has characters in their sig, might be worth seeing if they match up well against any of the visions?

Edit: to Gac3 - Doesn't dead town know who the wolves are? I thought that was the whole point of the visions.
"I should definitely be a suspect" gives me a mild gut ping.

Don't get the flat thing, so slight wolf points for that pending an explanation.



Eh. If this were a more experienced player I'd be wolfreading it quite a bit. Since he's not... a little below null? Confidence low to non-existent.

Basically all my reads feel like squeezing blood out of a stone.

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Scapegoat = "Oh we can pretend that these things say this even when it doesn't make a strong case and people will follow"

Yeah, that was the other explanation I thought of.

And taking that as a refusal to answer my other question, which is about what I expected.

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3SC, why did you want to mess with specifically Kraken instead of anyone else?

[gac3]

Fairly standard for a newbie. I don't remember seeing a new wolf doing this but also I can't remember the last time I saw a new wolf full stop. Slightest of town points?


I could argue going along with Rogan's not-particularly-strong Xihirli case is wolfy; less strong an argument given newness. Paranoia is NAI.


NAI.

I disagree with this method of vision interpretation but also don't think it's particularly AI.


"I should definitely be a suspect" gives me a mild gut ping.

Don't get the flat thing, so slight wolf points for that pending an explanation.



Eh. If this were a more experienced player I'd be wolfreading it quite a bit. Since he's not... a little below null? Confidence low to non-existent.

Basically all my reads feel like squeezing blood out of a stone.

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Yeah, that was the other explanation I thought of.

And taking that as a refusal to answer my other question, which is about what I expected.

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3SC, why did you want to mess with specifically Kraken instead of anyone else?

Since your Kraken read is "nearly wolfy... But new so maybe not" it might be worth mentioning again, if any of the clues are suppose to hint towards names, Kraken is both the most obvious person to point out and matches multiple pictures if you assume "general water theme". So... Probably worth FOS due to that, at least as much as farmerbrink does for the fields.

[Snowblaze]

Since your Kraken read is "nearly wolfy... But new so maybe not" it might be worth mentioning again, if any of the clues are suppose to hint towards names, Kraken is both the most obvious person to point out and matches multiple pictures if you assume "general water theme". So... Probably worth FOS due to that, at least as much as farmerbrink does for the fields.

I'm in a weird position of half agreeing with this and half wolfreading it.

gac/Kraken not w/w, at least.

Also:
Farmerbink 2: flat_footed, Snowblaze
Snowblaze 1: bladescape
Apogee1 1: gac3
flat_footed 1: Let'sGetKraken
Posted without voting: AvatarVecna
No posts: Farmerbink, Xihirli, 3SecondCultist, Apogee1

[Xihirli]

This game was a mind****. Everybody had a power, and it flipped on its head when they died, but nobody was told that's what was happening, and nobody knew which player had died, only which rolename had died, but dying didn't mean you stopped participating in the game. Xihirli was getting berries and citrus fruits for scry results and figured it out despite the game's very premise was not only designed around denying town information, but actively misinforming them. And Xi figured it out.

Okay, I worked out that puzzle, but it took me until like the end of the game. I don't think we have that kind of time.

As far as my D1 idea for killing a player I know more, that's not going to work anymore for two big reasons. One, they're going to be a smaller percentage of the dead people now. Two, we can't keep sacrificing townies to get better visions. It's time for wolf hunting. And Book Wombat isn't a bad choice with my D1 criteria, anyhow.

Way I see it, we have a sand house, a hot air balloon tightrope walker, a bridge with a carriage going by a fisherman, and a ship... flying over the desert? Whatever's going on, there's camels in the background.
Up to 3 of these can be from our 2+ (now 3+ but I don't think Rogan had any say) town (or town-lite) friends in the afterlife. The other would come from whichever of Elenna / Batcathat / Grand Arbiter is feeling wolfy.
We have four ghosts, and four pictures. If it's one per ghost, then I think we can trust MORE of these to be town-friendly than not.
So in other words, we're looking for common themes.



https://cf.geekdo-images.com/oxTAi8uvgROtwftyodhEzg__imagepage/img/Br__ZSPZjp4ihZLPyceydEJhB-0=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860626.jpghttps://cf.geekdo-images.com/xoMPGrI9vb-2a2BsXqFO1g__imagepage/img/9jv43dO0Hu7qEuOG_yKYg_q9KIk=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860643.jpghttps://cf.geekdo-images.com/Tm2-jrMaBddDEe0EITYN7Q__imagepage/img/gcwj1wo3dpJoWGea7PQHRT9p35g=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860651.jpghttps://cf.geekdo-images.com/UvVbcDYnV2b_5EGojYsipw__imagepage/img/cSUko01sF-njDbT8vub-VlztmbE=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860694.jpg

I'll also put in an analysis of what each picture means on its own.

Sand House Floating off into the Wind: this is a symbol of impermanence. Something that doesn't last long. Something like a 3SecondCultist. Themes in common with other pictures: Sky (full of bicycles), sea (sand suggests beach), sand (the house is sand), and vehicles (bicycle).
Tightrope walking between hot air balloons: This is a very bad idea. Almost the kind Xihirli would come up with, or the kind AvatarVecna would pull off. Themes in common with the others: Sky (it's in the sky), vehicles (hot air balloons), animals (a seagull), humans (passengers in the hot air balloon).
Fishing next to a bridge: Look at all the thematic richness. The fishing pole gives us thought to a poorer village. Look, the fisher can't even afford a good stick, this one's been repaired! Over on the bridge we've got a dapper scene: a man in a top head driving a carriage. Look closer, and there's no passenger. And the carriage is being pulled by a cloud horse. Best guess? Fishing means Kraken. Themes in common with the others: animals (cloud horse), sky (cloud horse), sea/body of water (fisher), vehicles (carriage), people (driver, fisher probably).
Then we have the spirit of adventure. As lion and woman ride a flying boat over the desert with the people below showing that they would like to get on the boat by holding up all the boat merchandise they own.
Boy, the desert really puts the BLAZE in Snowblaze, huh? Themes in common with the others: Animals (lion, camel), sand (desert), vehicles (flying boat), people (BoatCon members down below, woman on the ship). There is a sky, but nothing seems to be happening there.

Hmm... one of these things is not like the others... one of these things just doesn't belong. Can you tell me which thing is not like the others... before I finish my song.

I think the key here is to remove one of the pictures and see what three of them together say. The main issue is we DON'T KNOW WHICH PICTURE.
So I think in my next post I'll be looking at every possible combination of 3 pictures.

[Let'sGetKraken]

A whole lot to respond to here!



Not really seeing how you get from "vehicles" to "flat_footed", Kraken. Please explain.
Footed -> transportation, movement, three of which the visions reference strongly. I don't have much knowledge about your collective behaviour, so I'm predominantly going off how visions relate to usernames for my interpretations.



Someone mentioned Mysterium being a real thing... Do the cards have specific meaning in the game? Like is this an "additional research may help" thing?
They do not. It's a similar premise except cooperative, with one ghost trying to indicate which of a set of muderers/locations/murder weapons corresponds to each player based on giving them these visions. I would actually highly recommend, it's a ton of fun.

Important to remember is that the ghosts and maf are likely picking from a pool of visions (in Mysterium, the ghost picks visions from a pool of 7 at a time) - can we get a GM confirmation on how many visions each side gets to pick from? That would very much help in determining whether common themes like fields or water are incidental or intentional.



The only possible wolf on the Xihirli wagon is Kraken fmpov
This was more "if I have to vote day one in the absence of information, I'm going to pick the wagon that at least has some rationale to it instead of the one that seems totally random".



The whole "Two fields" argument is kinda amusing because if you consider from our recently departed townfolk and his ghostly friend's point of view, do you really think that vague fields that don't even properly look like farmed fields is what would be the correct line to lead us to farmerbink?
I do think that it's tenuous, but keep in mind that they likely don't exactly have a wealth of visions to choose from and have to work with what they have. I'm keeping my vote where it is for now, given my rationale above.



3SC, why did you want to mess with specifically Kraken instead of anyone else?
We're friends IRL and have played together before. He's the one who made me aware this was happening.



I think the key here is to remove one of the pictures and see what three of them together say. The main issue is we DON'T KNOW WHICH PICTURE.
This is my rationale for flat_footed, but keep in mind that this only tells us what one side might be trying to indicate - since either town or wolves could have sent three visions. Though I'm more and more convinced that Xihirli is town.


@Snowblaze, what does NAI/AI mean, for the newbies here?

[gac3]

Still reading Kraken's post but I believe the pool is 6 and they pick up to 3. I could be wrong though.

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Also I think NAI means Not Alignment Indicative... But when I asked, I'm pretty sure nobody confirmed or denied.

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I'm in a weird position of half agreeing with this and half wolfreading it.

gac/Kraken not w/w, at least.

Also:
Farmerbink 2: flat_footed, Snowblaze
Snowblaze 1: bladescape
Apogee1 1: gac3
flat_footed 1: Let'sGetKraken
Posted without voting: AvatarVecna
No posts: Farmerbink, Xihirli, 3SecondCultist, Apogee1

Take it whichever way you want. That said I'm really torn on this whole name connection thing. I'm currently banking on Xi to put together any real clues from the visions after that last post. The best I have is "similar to names" but that can't be the only basis because some of us have bad names for that to be the premise of a system. I'm going to probably mostly stick to trying to solve this the old school way.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Oh. They might know who the wolves are? That would make sense.

Going to step in and confirm: All dead players, regardless of alignment, are given the names of the Wolves.

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Up to 3 of these can be from our 2+ (now 3+ but I don't think Rogan had any say) town (or town-lite) friends in the afterlife. The other would come from whichever of Elenna / Batcathat / Grand Arbiter is feeling wolfy.
We have four ghosts, and four pictures. If it's one per ghost, then I think we can trust MORE of these to be town-friendly than not.


Clarification - No matter how many Town ghosts there are, as a collective they can agree on 0-3 visions to send. Same math for the Mafia ghosts.

So when the Visions were discussed and sent, Book Wombat and one of Bat/Elenna talked about what (and how many) visions they should send to help town, and Elenna/Bat was alone in deciding what (and how many) visions to send to help Town. Rogan died at the end of the night and is joining Book+Bat/Elenna.

It could be 3 from one side, 1 from another. Could be 2 each. But it doesn't directly correlate to the number of dead players.

Grand Arbiter decided to stay neutral and so isn't giving input to either side but is chilling in chat with us.

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Important to remember is that the ghosts and maf are likely picking from a pool of visions (in Mysterium, the ghost picks visions from a pool of 7 at a time) - can we get a GM confirmation on how many visions each side gets to pick from? That would very much help in determining whether common themes like fields or water are incidental or intentional.


Neither side can pick literally any image from the game.

Town was given a pool of 7 images to pick from, choosing up to 3 to send to y'all. Now that they have done that, I will replace any cards they sent to you with new cards to make a hand of 7. A few times during the game, they may choose to discard any number of images from their hand and redraw up to 7.

Mafia gets a 7 card hand, chooses up to 3 to send, redraws up to 7, gets the same discard option the same number of times per game.

If an image is in the hand of one side as an option to send, it will not be offered to the other side.

[Xihirli]

Part of that makes me suspect that town got a hand of only one good card, while Mafia will almost always have a hand of at least 3 good cards since they're trying to obfuscate, and make the signal-to-noise ratio worse.
So it might be more that the one of these things that is not like the others is the one we DO want to follow.

[Farmerbink]

Finally, several hours later, the man shambles in. Somewhat better-sheveled, for having slept, he nonetheless is actively rubbing the overnight crust from the creases of his eyes. "Hells, somebody else died?" he groans, looking down thoughtfully at the sheet-covered form. "Well that's no good." He frowns deeply before stepping around him with a subtle, respectful gesture of farewell.

"Rogan, was it? I suppose that doesn't tell us overmuch. Obviously the killers were out and about last night, but we already suspected as much." He looks around the room slowly, hesitating only briefly on a few faces before realizing that several are looking aggressively at him.

"Might sound a bit odd, but I generally trust Flat_Footed and Snowblaze. Simply put, I don't know anything, and that makes me a poor choice for the killers to want to off during the day. I'm not gonna contribute to that effort, for reasons I suspect are obvious, but I don't have much to contrib- oh, what's this?" His rambling thoughts finally lead the images into his field of view, and he eagerly approaches the table.

"This... these are portents from beyond?!" he gapes. Like an eager child with a new toy, he rifles through the images. Almost immediately, the excitement fades. "I... I don't know exactly what he expected, but this is all Greek to me," he mumbles.

"I see... vehicles.... Acrobats and tradesmen. Fishermen and oars, over fields and houses of sand- oh, and sandbags?? That's a theme. Horses and Camels, ropes throughout? Wheels in the sky, and wheels on the bridge...

Vehicles
Ropes
Sand
Animals
Water

These are the themes I see...." He ponders for some time, utterly unconcerned for the fingers literally and figuratively directed at him. "In the interest of putting it out there, I think the spirits from beyond want you dead, Let'sGetKraken"


So... that is not as concerning as I thought, I don't really believe my arguments that any of this is actively wolfy.

Eh. Keeping my vote there until I come up with a better idea or until he shows up and does towny stuff.

Soooo I did a bad thing, and paid little attention to the timing on this game. I'm visiting family, and don't really expect to be paying hard attention throughout the day. In all seriousness, I won't feel horribly bad if I get offed. I hate to "waste" it, but I may be a waste to the town alive, anyway. And further, I have increasingly less positive input without knowing how these details work (3 images each? 3/1? 2/2? Each ghost gets one?) :-\ Edit: Those details hit ninja'ed, but don't really offer any clarity. *shrugs*

To that end, what "crunch" I've begun framing:

I like the five themes mentioned. Each one seems to well incorporate 2 (and decently well a 3rd) images. Without knowing more about the specific breakdown, I think that's as good a start as any. For reiteration: Vehicles Ropes, Sand, Animals, Water are all decent themes. We could get more specific, but I'm already having trouble connecting them to any names, except *maybe* water -> Kraken (and animal -> Kraken?). Vehicles and wheels have something of an inverse connotation with Flat_Footed, but the inverse connotations are nearly always accidental in actual Mysterium.

edit again:
Part of that makes me suspect that town got a hand of only one good card, while Mafia will almost always have a hand of at least 3 good cards since they're trying to obfuscate, and make the signal-to-noise ratio worse.
So it might be more that the one of these things that is not like the others is the one we DO want to follow.

That is *TOTALLY BELIEVABLE* I know as wolf I would want to make as much noise as possible, though that immediately creates a radically new meta to try to track O_o.

Hrmph.

Given that new development, I'm going to vote Apogee in a simple effort to keep people from being silent wolves.

Apogee

[Snowblaze]

Since your Kraken read is "nearly wolfy... But new so maybe not" it might be worth mentioning again, if any of the clues are suppose to hint towards names, Kraken is both the most obvious person to point out and matches multiple pictures if you assume "general water theme". So... Probably worth FOS due to that, at least as much as farmerbrink does for the fields.

Actually let's talk about this properly.

The actual point is more or less valid. It's the way they made it I have a problem with. If they'd asked me why I didn't take the visions as a possible link to Kraken into account, or wolfread me for not taking them into account... that would have been good.

Just saying "hey, you kind of wolfread this person, I think you should take into account another reason to wolfread them" like they've done, though... that feels agenda-y.

gac, who are the wolves?

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Slightly concerned by how easily Farmerbink is townreading me after last game, but overall I do like that post.

I need to ISO gac.

(Yes, NAI is Not Alignment Indicative, ie tells me nothing about whether the player is a wolf or not.)

- - - Updated - - -

Skimmed through, can't be bothered to write up a proper ISO but there's a few things that give me gut pings so...

Anyone want to vote gac3 with me?

[3SecondCultist]

Fairly standard for a newbie. I don't remember seeing a new wolf doing this but also I can't remember the last time I saw a new wolf full stop. Slightest of town points?


I could argue going along with Rogan's not-particularly-strong Xihirli case is wolfy; less strong an argument given newness. Paranoia is NAI.


NAI.

I disagree with this method of vision interpretation but also don't think it's particularly AI.


"I should definitely be a suspect" gives me a mild gut ping.

Don't get the flat thing, so slight wolf points for that pending an explanation.



Eh. If this were a more experienced player I'd be wolfreading it quite a bit. Since he's not... a little below null? Confidence low to non-existent.

Basically all my reads feel like squeezing blood out of a stone.

I'm getting a wolf read for Kraken as well, largely from the visions portrayed so far and because he oversold the whole 'conflicted over whether I'm wolf' thing from D1. It's precisely the play he would make if he was really wolf and wanted to play off of my ego.

As to your point about him not being 'an experienced player'. Kraken loves Mafia games. He's a seasoned Among Us player, he's played Werewolf, and he lives for these types of bluffs. I would not let the fact that he is new to this game, in particular, deter you from getting the same wolf vibes that I absolutely have right now.


3SC, why did you want to mess with specifically Kraken instead of anyone else?

Because I know him IRL and we were also hanging out IRL for all of D1. I wanted to see whether he would lean in to my self-voting joke, and how far he would lean. Alone, his reactions were not suspicious. He played it up a bit, which only meant that he was uncertain at the time as to whether or not I'm town. But when taken with the visions - which I think point to him more than anyone else - I get wolfy feelings.

LetsGetKraken has my vote.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I'm getting a wolf read for Kraken as well, largely from the visions portrayed so far and because he oversold the whole 'conflicted over whether I'm wolf' thing from D1. It's precisely the play he would make if he was really wolf and wanted to play off of my ego.

As to your point about him not being 'an experienced player'. Kraken loves Mafia games. He's a seasoned Among Us player, he's played Werewolf, and he lives for these types of bluffs. I would not let the fact that he is new to this game, in particular, deter you from getting the same wolf vibes that I absolutely have right now.

Because I know him IRL and we were also hanging out IRL for all of D1. I wanted to see whether he would lean in to my self-voting joke, and how far he would lean. Alone, his reactions were not suspicious. He played it up a bit, which only meant that he was uncertain at the time as to whether or not I'm town. But when taken with the visions - which I think point to him more than anyone else - I get wolfy feelings.

LetsGetKraken has my vote.

Emphasis mine.

My response to this is that I am perhaps the easiest person for the wolves to frame using visions, given (as I've mentioned) how many of the Mysterium cards have water on them and how clearly that connects to my username. All it takes is a single water-themed card - which seems to be the case here - and I'm implicated.

I don't think 3SecondCultist is a wolf for this, but I do think he's taking the bait.

Sticking with flat_footed - Bink may say that inverse connotations are rare in Mysterium (which is true), but this isn't Mysterium - deadtown is working to hit a much smaller target here and they have to work with what they've given.

[3SecondCultist]

My response to this is that I am perhaps the easiest person for the wolves to frame using visions, given (as I've mentioned) how many of the Mysterium cards have water on them and how clearly that connects to my username. All it takes is a single water-themed card - which seems to be the case here - and I'm implicated.

To be clear, I am not just reading the water signs. I am specifically looking at the suspiciously tentacle-like clouds in the first picture, on top of the water pictures.

Do I think it’s possible that I am being deceived by the wolves? Absolutely. Do I think it’s more likely than there being multiple pictures pointing to one person? Not necessarily.

[Snowblaze]

Do either of you have thoughts on the gac post I pointed out?

Apogee1 2: gac3, Farmerbink
Snowblaze 1: bladescape
Let'sGetKraken 1: 3SecondCultist
gac3 1: Snowblaze
Farmerbink 1: flat_footed
flat_footed 1: Let'sGetKraken
Posted without voting: AvatarVecna, Xihirli
No posts: Apogee1

Not really much consensus. Yes, I know I just switched off a wagon and am hence a hypocrite.

[Xihirli]

gac3 and Kraken seem like good wagons to advance to me.

[gac3]

Actually let's talk about this properly.

The actual point is more or less valid. It's the way they made it I have a problem with. If they'd asked me why I didn't take the visions as a possible link to Kraken into account, or wolfread me for not taking them into account... that would have been good.

Just saying "hey, you kind of wolfread this person, I think you should take into account another reason to wolfread them" like they've done, though... that feels agenda-y.

gac, who are the wolves?

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Slightly concerned by how easily Farmerbink is townreading me after last game, but overall I do like that post.

I need to ISO gac.

(Yes, NAI is Not Alignment Indicative, ie tells me nothing about whether the player is a wolf or not.)

- - - Updated - - -

Skimmed through, can't be bothered to write up a proper ISO but there's a few things that give me gut pings so...

Anyone want to vote gac3 with me?

Let's see. If I had to guess right now?

Then vision based: maybe
Let'sgetKraken
Or Farmerbrink

Definitely not Xi.

Beyond that:
AV is harder for me to read than Xi.
Snowblaze is probably town tbh.
I don't feel I have much on 3second, Apogee, or flat.
And blade... Idk. Slight town lean.

So (how many wolves are there? 3? 4? I'm not going to bother with the math.
I'd say wolves are most likely in
Kraken
Farmer
Apogee
Flat
3sexond cultist

[Let'sGetKraken]

Do either of you have thoughts on the gac post I pointed out?

I mean, now it looks more like self-preservation but I went back and I do see your point - Gac does read more sus. They started the wagon on Book D1, and it feels like they've largely be bandwagoning/hedging their bets since then. Seems like they might also be hiding a little behind feigned lack of rules understanding, though without knowledge of them as a player it's hard to tell.

Changing my vote to Gac3.

Feels like Xihirli is town, or exceptionally bold with the T1 self-vote. I still think the visions are pointing towards flat_footed but those aren't super reliable this early on, Cultist.

[gac3]

I mean, now it looks more like self-preservation but I went back and I do see your point - Gac does read more sus. They started the wagon on Book D1, and it feels like they've largely be bandwagoning/hedging their bets since then. Seems like they might also be hiding a little behind feigned lack of rules understanding, though without knowledge of them as a player it's hard to tell.

Changing my vote to Gac3.

If it helps I'm pretty sure people used to be still have trouble telling. Snow frequently refers to me as "doing normal weird gac stuff" which I really don't get but oh well.

[Xihirli]

Feels like Xihirli is town, or exceptionally bold with the T1 self-vote.

It’s definitely one of those!

[Farmerbink]

Just kind of confused over Apogee's continued silence. :smallconfused:

[3SecondCultist]

Just kind of confused over Apogee's continued silence. :smallconfused:

I agree. If he is a silent wolf, that is not great. If he is town and just inactive, that’s worse.

[Apogee1]

I'm around, kind of, for a little bit.

Ended up positively swamped in meetings during the day and busier with family during the night.

I spend a few minutes just now looking at the messages from beyond, nothing really jumped out as an obvious connection.

On that note with what Cao confirmed about 0-3 messages per side I don't think I'll say what an obvious connection might look like until one emerges.

[gac3]

Wait... The one with the ship doesn't actually have water... That night poke a hole in my half cocked Kraken theory... Though ship is still water so good enough for now.

[Apogee1]

Actually no, just the opposite. Coming from a town viewpoint, someone having the first two conclusions I did has me give gac3 a slight town lean. Subject to either of those being accurate and either being a wolf; hard to say at this point.

And yes, thank you. Corrected.

I'm debating internally if the "Coming from a town viewpoint" here is actually how a town is likely to reflect on their own towniness, or is more a wolf worried they want to make this clear.

Not just an idle musing, I've seen players who would cut either way, anyone know if flat-footed is self-aware in this regard often? Like, this is very much the kind of thing I /suspect/ is relatively alignment indicative in a direction, but which direction is dependent on the player.

[gac3]

I like how Snow is all "Kraken looks a little wolfy. They would look really wolfy if they weren't new" but then I add that the cards could add up to that also and suddenly that's sketchy.

[Apogee1]

You say that, but I'm still struggling to understand what town knows and how it could translate into these pictures.

- - - Updated - - -

To clarify I meant what "dead town knows"

Tentative read is that a wolf makes this post more often than a villager, with the "to clarify." That kind of clarification is something wolves think about more than villagers ime.

- - - Updated - - -

I've had a long-running read that posts with a lot of "updates" are villagy because it shows a sequence of thoughts comes over time as opposed to be pre-constructed.

This of course is easily gamable, but I'm fine with snow both independently and with it.

- - - Updated - - -


I'm getting a wolf read for Kraken as well, largely from the visions portrayed so far and because he oversold the whole 'conflicted over whether I'm wolf' thing from D1. It's precisely the play he would make if he was really wolf and wanted to play off of my ego.

As to your point about him not being 'an experienced player'. Kraken loves Mafia games. He's a seasoned Among Us player, he's played Werewolf, and he lives for these types of bluffs. I would not let the fact that he is new to this game, in particular, deter you from getting the same wolf vibes that I absolutely have right now.



Because I know him IRL and we were also hanging out IRL for all of D1. I wanted to see whether he would lean in to my self-voting joke, and how far he would lean. Alone, his reactions were not suspicious. He played it up a bit, which only meant that he was uncertain at the time as to whether or not I'm town. But when taken with the visions - which I think point to him more than anyone else - I get wolfy feelings.

LetsGetKraken has my vote.

I'm coming back to the whole snowblade voting gac section because spoiler I'm going to end up voting gac and want to talk about that in one post as opposed to over a sequence of catch-up.

3secondcultist (not a vote) can you explain this sentence? "He played it up a bit, which only meant that he was uncertain at the time as to whether or not I'm town. But when taken with the visions - which I think point to him more than anyone else - I get wolfy feelings." Generally I'd think that "he was uncertain at the time as to whether or not I'm town" is a great indicator of someone being a villager, as wolves are cursed with TMI and all that. I'm not sure why taken with the visions causes this to pivot so fully, considering the visions aren't /giving new context to his reaction to you/ just (possibly) indicating he's a wolf because the villagers in deadchat have information he is such?

[Xihirli]

Frankly, the clear water theme in the pictures is making me not want to go Kraken, since at least some of those I suspect came from the wolves.

[gac3]

Frankly, the clear water theme in the pictures is making me not want to go Kraken, since at least some of those I suspect came from the wolves.

This is also fair. I'm more fond of the idea "use visions to back up existing suspicions" rather than basing things off of them.

Also... if the players themselves choose how many visions to send, I'm starting to think it's likely that 3 of the visions were from wolves. Because why would wolves ever not send the maximum?

[Xihirli]

I can think of no reason.

And since the wolves don't change every night, our side would still have the same 6 garbage cards.

[Farmerbink]

Frankly, the clear water theme in the pictures is making me not want to go Kraken, since at least some of those I suspect came from the wolves.

I'm agreeing more here as I think about it. The decision of how many images to send seems very obvious- at least in this case. Wolves: send all the images! Town: I'm not sure what's helpful, but this one might be?

It's part of why I changed my vote away from Kraken. I hate to see Apogee town lynched for being busy today, but lsat game like 2 of the wolves had super low posts (and then there was Snowblaze XD)

[Apogee1]

gac3

Sorry I got sidetracked with the new hearthstone expansion. Anyways, gac is doing the thing wolves do where they (general they) ponder mechanics in sort of broad ways bouncing between possibilities without linking to specific behaviors in the thread.

Contrast with say Xihirli who has the meander mech posts but gets to an actual point a lot better.

This was slightly abridged but I can talk about it more if people want.

Also thought snow's point was reasonable I guess.

[gac3]

gac3

Sorry I got sidetracked with the new hearthstone expansion. Anyways, gac is doing the thing wolves do where they (general they) ponder mechanics in sort of broad ways bouncing between possibilities without linking to specific behaviors in the thread.

Contrast with say Xihirli who has the meander mech posts but gets to an actual point a lot better.

This was slightly abridged but I can talk about it more if people want.

Also thought snow's point was reasonable I guess.

Are you sure I can't talk you into considering another wagon? Gac3 is doing that thing gac3 does when he isn't sure how to apply mechanics. And drew Snows attention for agreeing with them. To be fair I do the same thing. If someone agrees with me I'm usually like.. "this is suspicious... No one ever agrees with me"

[bladescape]

I wanna state more clearly that unless I'm underestimating Farmerbink I have reason to believe they're town

Considering wagons rn

[Snowblaze]

I'm coming back to the whole snowblade voting gac section because spoiler I'm going to end up voting gac and want to talk about that in one post as opposed to over a sequence of catch-up.

Just want to note the typo here amuses me.

Wasn't expecting the gac wagon to gain this much momentum, but I read through wolf!gac's ISO from Fallout and what they've done since my vote is very similar to what they did there (I'll fetch quotes in a bit.)

(Also I need to look at how town!gac responds to pressure.)

gac3 4: Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, Apogee1
Let'sGetKraken 2: 3SecondCultist, gac3
Snowblaze 1: bladescape
Farmerbink 1: flat_footed
Apogee1 1: Farmerbink
Posted without voting: AvatarVecna

gac, why am I town?

- - - Updated - - -


I like how Snow is all "Kraken looks a little wolfy. They would look really wolfy if they weren't new" but then I add that the cards could add up to that also and suddenly that's sketchy.

And how does me being probably town fit with this?

- - - Updated - - -

Okay, similarities to Fallout aren't quite as strong as I thought,


Good luck. Nobody ever figures it out. Just going to let you know though, it has always historically been weird town logic. I never seem to draw the wolf straw.
(snip)
Sure Gac3 is always sketchy


If it helps, I'm also leaning town. So if we get a better candidate, I don't mind moving my vote.


But it does still show gac playing up the "oh, town!me is always weird" angle and talking about themselves as if they're analysing someone else. (Context for the second quote was me incorrectly townleaning gac, who was a wagon at the time.)

- - - Updated - - -


If it helps I'm pretty sure people used to be still have trouble telling. Snow frequently refers to me as "doing normal weird gac stuff" which I really don't get but oh well.


Are you sure I can't talk you into considering another wagon? Gac3 is doing that thing gac3 does when he isn't sure how to apply mechanics. And drew Snows attention for agreeing with them. To be fair I do the same thing. If someone agrees with me I'm usually like.. "this is suspicious... No one ever agrees with me"



Yup, talking about "I'm hard to read, my town meta is weird" and about themselves in third person.

- - - Updated - - -

Had to go all the way back to Afterlife 2 to find town!gac under earlygame pressure, and I didn't spot any of that stuff but gamestate then was pretty different to now.

...Love Letter also had town!gac under early suspicion. I'll go skim through that in a bit.

- - - Updated - - -

Let's talk about non-gac people.

bladescape and Xihirli remain townleans.

Farmerbink is fine for the moment, I guess?

Apogee's analysis is decent, doesn't scream town but without active concerns about him I don't want him dead any time soon.

AV is AV.

Kraken I'm still not enthusiastic about, not a massive fan of his gac vote but he's unpaired with my top wolfread so can live for now.

flat_footed and 3SC are null, I guess. Should probably look back through them and try and get a better handle at some point.

[gac3]

Book Wombat 4: gac3, Farmerbink, 3SecondCultist, bladescape
Xihirli 4: Rogan, Let'sGetKraken, Snowblaze, Xihirli
Snowblaze 1: AvatarVecna
3SecondCultist 2: Book Wombat, Apogee1
Rogan 1: flat_footed

Running wagonomics assuming town!Xihirli.

The only possible wolf on the Xihirli wagon is Kraken fmpov. I don't necessarily think that's wolfy given that Wombat was clearly lead wagon before the Xihirli one got going and wolves wouldn't particularly care about saving him, but there's been a couple of minor pings on Kraken and I have nothing better to go on...

Wolves on Wombat wagon... gac is doing weird gac stuff and is nullish though they have a lot of posts so I should probably ISO them. I don't want to do ISOs, though.

Farmerbink is... probably slightly below null but that could just be because of the visions which are definitely influencing my reads and I don't really want them to.

3SC is just an ??? at the moment. Slight townlean if I squint but I don't really believe in it.

And bladescape, as I mentioned, is a townlean. Because I feel like wolf!bladescape would try to influence stuff a lot more than he did on D1, and that he wouldn't try to mislynch me without a lot more threadstate control than he currently has. (Though, you know, paranoia.)

AV is... AV. Part of me thinks posting walls about general strategy is towny for them but I've miscleared AV enough I don't want to actually townread them for it.

Apogee exists. Possibly a slight wolflean if I squint hard enough.

flat is... fine, I guess? Don't particularly want to kill him today.

So this turned into a general reads list instead of wagonomics despite my lack of reads.

Right, should actually talk about Xihirli, I think wolf!her is significantly less likely to advocate for her own death than town!her.

Anyway. Should vote someone. Farmerbink since we should get some wagons moving and I want to see how he responds to pressure.


Just want to note the typo here amuses me.

Wasn't expecting the gac wagon to gain this much momentum, but I read through wolf!gac's ISO from Fallout and what they've done since my vote is very similar to what they did there (I'll fetch quotes in a bit.)

(Also I need to look at how town!gac responds to pressure.)

gac3 4: Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, Apogee1
Let'sGetKraken 2: 3SecondCultist, gac3
Snowblaze 1: bladescape
Farmerbink 1: flat_footed
Apogee1 1: Farmerbink
Posted without voting: AvatarVecna

gac, why am I town?

- - - Updated - - -



And how does me being probably town fit with this?

- - - Updated - - -

Okay, similarities to Fallout aren't quite as strong as I thought,





But it does still show gac playing up the "oh, town!me is always weird" angle and talking about themselves as if they're analysing someone else. (Context for the second quote was me incorrectly townleaning gac, who was a wagon at the time.)

- - - Updated - - -







Yup, talking about "I'm hard to read, my town meta is weird" and about themselves in third person.

- - - Updated - - -

Had to go all the way back to Afterlife 2 to find town!gac under earlygame pressure, and I didn't spot any of that stuff but gamestate then was pretty different to now.

...Love Letter also had town!gac under early suspicion. I'll go skim through that in a bit.

Ugh. Literally saying gac is doing weird gac stuff and is nullish. Because you say that so often. And TBF not just you. It's to the point that when someone acts like I'm making sense I wolf read them because I'm always being told I think weird. Yet then I try to lean into it with comments about being weird. Whatever. Not even relevant to me defending my alignment. Just personally very annoying.
People: "Gac is weird. Gac is weird."
Gac: "haha yeah. I'm weird."
People: "gac is trying to hide his wolfiness by saying he's weird.

It's not even the good kind of weird that comes with AV and Xi and Snowblaze. Ugh.


First off... Why am I the highest poster? I keep feeling like I'm barely checking in.

Why are you town? I mean I don't know for sure you are. Unlike Xi. Definitely town there. But I'm leaning that way. You are talking more than anyone and are being your regular level of paranoid instead of your boosted wolf paranoid.

Why wouldn't town you line up with that?

- - - Updated - - -

Still think Kraken might be a good target but screw it. I'm curious how this game looks from the other side. Gac3

[Snowblaze]

Sorry, I guess.

ftr I don't think your weirdness is in any way a bad thing. I just can't understand your thought processes at all.

And I probably didn't phrase that point against you very well. It's not just you saying "yeah, I'm weird". It's the fact it's a response specifically to being wolfread, saying "don't feel bad, I'm weird all the time" implying that the reason you're being wolfread is just standard you stuff.


Anyway. Considering I was top poster last game I don't think talking more than anyone is a valid reason to townread me. The paranoia thing is... maybe valid? I definitely was paranoid when I shouldn't have been last game.

And why it wouldn't fit... that post feels like you're saying "Snow's point against me is bad/inconsistent" which would naturally imply a wolfread on me imo.

- - - Updated - - -

stares at self-vote

So my first thought is "gac self-voted in Fallout" but my second thought is "I could be confbiasing/not giving gac enough space to do stuff".

With that in mind, I'm going to take a break. Opinions on whether I'm tunneling are appreciated.

[bladescape]

Let'sGetKraken

[Snowblaze]

I just remembered town!gac self-voted in UPick, so that particular point against them is invalid.

bladescape, I'm assuming that vote is something to do with your wolfread on me?

- - - Updated - - -

3SC, thoughts on gac? (Preferably independently of Kraken.) And thoughts on other non-Kraken people are also appreciated.

Farmerbink, read on Apogee now he's shown up and done stuff?

[Snowblaze]

I'm second-guessing myself.

There hasn't really been much resistance to the gac wagon; only bladescape voting the counterwagon, and I don't think anyone's argued that gac is town.

(If anyone does have reasons to townread gac, I'd definitely like to hear them.)

But on the other hand I reread gac's ISO and I still can't get to a townread.

The silence is getting to me.

gac3 5: Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, Apogee1, gac3
Let'sGetKraken 2: 3SecondCultist, bladescape
Farmerbink 1: flat_footed
Apogee1 1: Farmerbink
Posted without voting: AvatarVecna

Exactly one wolf in gac/Kraken, reasonably confident.

If gac's a wolf I'm fairly sure they're not being bussed (unless self-bussing counts) (Apogee would be the only possibility there but atm I don't think it's that likely.)

Don't know who wolf!Kraken's partners are other than not gac and 3SC and probably not bladescape.

- - - Updated - - -

Actually rereading Apogee's recent stuff I feel a bit better about him, he can be a townlean.

[Xihirli]

Yyyyeah, it’s late in the day enough that the wolves are either cutting their losses or Gac is town.
Of course, cutting losses is a very common wolf tactic, so that doesn’t really mean much.

[3SecondCultist]

3SC, thoughts on gac? (Preferably independently of Kraken.) And thoughts on other non-Kraken people are also appreciated.

Hmmm. I don't know gac (or most of you) well enough to get a read on your behaviour over multiple games. The only data I have to analyze here is what has been said this very game. If I look at that, I see some self-effacing messages. Being 'weird' means absolutely nothing to me in the context of the game - we're all writing messages on a 15 year old message board forum, I don't think any of us are normal - but referring to oneself in the third person seems like either an attempt to objectively point out one's own posts or is a wolfy technique.

I agree that Snowblaze and Xi are likely town, if only because you're both talking too much to be wolves for my liking. The wolfy slip up is usually to talk too much, but the level of play here suggests to be that being relatively quiet would is a more commonly employed survival strategy. That does point to apogee somewhat, but it's too soon to tell.

I could see gac as wolf, absolutely. Not sure who their partner(s) are. The visions don't lean that way at all, but as has been strenuously pointed out, there is a good chance that wolves sent the maximum number of visions to muddy the pool as much as possible. It would stand to reason then that the majority of the images are false leads. I did not consider that before.

Since the wagon is going that way, I will jump on it. Changing vote to gac3.

Note that if gac is town, Kraken gets a huge wolfread from me and an immediate vote on D3 (and yes, I know I'm biased). I share Snowblaze's confidence that one of them is a wolf.

[Snowblaze]

So that does not help my paranoia. At all.

My gut says this is wrong but I don't actually have strong evidence that I'm wrong.

- - - Updated - - -

Also if I'm spectacularly wrong and gac/Kraken is TvT then 3SC looks wolfy from that.

- - - Updated - - -

Townleans: Xihirli, bladescape, Apogee
A tiny bit above null: Farmerbink, AvatarVecna
Null: flat_footed
A tiny bit below null: 3SecondCultist
A slightly less tiny bit below null unless gac is a wolf: Let'sGetKraken
Wolflean: gac3
Paranoid idiot: Snowblaze

Staying where I am until and unless I can make up my mind whether my gut is actually reliable in this instance.

[3SecondCultist]

Also if I'm spectacularly wrong and gac/Kraken is TvT then 3SC looks wolfy from that.

I assume that TvT means Town vs Town? If both gac and Kraken turn out to be Town, I will happily vote myself off to prove I’m not a wolf.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I assume that TvT means Town vs Town? If both gac and Kraken turn out to be Town, I will happily vote myself off to prove I’m not a wolf.

I'm reasonably confident gac isn't town (though I suppose we'll see shortly), but if he is I will cheerfully push you off that cliff.


Townleans: Xihirli, bladescape, Apogee
A tiny bit above null: Farmerbink, AvatarVecna
Null: flat_footed
A tiny bit below null: 3SecondCultist
A slightly less tiny bit below null unless gac is a wolf: Let'sGetKraken
Wolflean: gac3
Paranoid idiot: Snowblaze


Aside from where you're being self-depracating, I agree with the bold strokes of this. I think I would put bladescape (seems to be playing things very close to the chest) and flat_footed (because of the imagery) lower. I think you and Xihirli are town, though if Gac is also town then I think the chances you're a wolf goes way up.

[Snowblaze]

TvT is indeed town vs town.

Advocating for your own death as town is generally a bad idea.

Playing cards pretty close to his chest is standard for bladescape. There's a reason I call him a cryptic bastard.

I should probably look at flat a bit more.

[Farmerbink]

"I only have one question to add," the tired man interjects.

"Hypothetically, let's assume gac3 is wolf. How on earth does our friendly spirit successfully supply images that point at him? What about his name could be tied to any of these images?."

"My vote means nothing at this rate, as I've no particularly confident wolf lean to even challenge that gac wagon with Kraken. No reason to move it."

I'm afraid we've run into a hard issue ((with the system)). Without some sort of public "role" assignment with imagery or symbolism, we're stuck trying to make pictures look like words names (which are often somewhat nonsensical in their own right)

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Reminder that phase ends today in about 4 hours.

[bladescape]

Kraken vote had nothing to do with my sus on you Snow.

It was because there was no resistance and I wanted to create some resistance to see what happened.

Not much as it turns out.

- - - Updated - - -

Also the cards are very difficult to take anything from with one day due to vagueries.

I would ask the ghosts try to keep hinting for the same wolf so we can try to collate multiple night's worth of work.

- - - Updated - - -

Why is Apogee a townlean for you? And what has AV done that is actually above rand for AV?

- - - Updated - - -


"I only have one question to add," the tired man interjects.

"Hypothetically, let's assume gac3 is wolf. How on earth does our friendly spirit successfully supply images that point at him? What about his name could be tied to any of these images?."

"My vote means nothing at this rate, as I've no particularly confident wolf lean to even challenge that gac wagon with Kraken. No reason to move it."

I'm afraid we've run into a hard issue ((with the system)). Without some sort of public "role" assignment with imagery or symbolism, we're stuck trying to make pictures look like words names (which are often somewhat nonsensical in their own right)

"I have defended you, Farmer, on the ideal that these visions do not match so well as some would like them to match you. Now, see this council has roused its ire differently, I must ask, what takes do you have?"

"I am not asking you to sus anyone, as you admit our oddly named compatriot is your best guess for our unlikeable guests, but do you have any thoughts of a shade lighter and more trustworthy?"

[AvatarVecna]

You ever look at something that tries to interpret Nostradamus in modern context, to see if he was predicting modern events? But because it's all so vague, it's basically just guessing, and then when the broken clock is right twice a day, you claim you read the signs correctly? I kinda feel like that's what I'm doing looking at these pictures, but I'm gonna share my thoughts anyway.


https://cf.geekdo-images.com/oxTAi8uvgROtwftyodhEzg__imagepage/img/Br__ZSPZjp4ihZLPyceydEJhB-0=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860626.jpg

House made of dust/sand blowing away in the wind. From the angle, the blue should be the sky, and it has old-timey bicycles up there. The contrast between yellow sand and blue sky gives the impression of a beachfront as well. And if the blue is indeed the sky, then the white should be clouds...but the clouds are weirdly-shaped if that's the case.

The wind blowing away a house of sand, at least to me, calls to mind "and ill huff and ill puff and ill blow your house down". I think whoever the house of sand is supposed to represent, the message is that they are not a wolf.

The bikes are of an old-timey design. This either signifies a veteran player, or one whose name comes with old-fashioned connotations.

I'm not sure how to take both theories together, especially since either could be wrong. It could be that the house alluding to that fairy tale is indicating the picture as a whole is focused on an innocent townie, and thus the veteran player/player with old-fashioned name could be the identifying factor. But the bikes are outside the house, as must be the wolf who is blowing it away, so perhaps the bikes represent the scum player? I can kinda see that, but I don't know if someone would try to communicate a message that complex on purpose - am I just reading too much into it?


https://cf.geekdo-images.com/xoMPGrI9vb-2a2BsXqFO1g__imagepage/img/9jv43dO0Hu7qEuOG_yKYg_q9KIk=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860643.jpg

Two hot air balloons tied together. The ground is not in sight, and because of the different tilt between the two balloons, it's impossible to tell if this is because of the angle or not. At first glance, the one close to the camera almost looks like they're going to try and walk on the wire between the two balloons, but looking at the further away one, it becomes clear that both are trying to pop the others balloon - which would cause both of them to tumble to their deaths.

This, I think, is a strong message. Maybe not a trustworthy one, but the imagery feels mostly clear: it is calling out something that happened pre-D2 as either Town v Town (the lynch, probably), or that there is some interaction between players that looks hostile but is secretly Wolf v Wolf, and is thus distancing. Two people who look like they're trying to pop each others balloons, but whose fates are tied together. Without knowing for sure which it indicates, or who sent the message, it's hard to tell at present time. We need to see if there's any possible distancing that occurred D1/N1 - I'd rather test there than kill Xihirli on the assumption this message came from scumteam trying to pretend the D1 lynch is v/v.

Also, hot air balloons are another old-timey vehicle. Potential support for that theory, if the images came from the same side.


https://cf.geekdo-images.com/Tm2-jrMaBddDEe0EITYN7Q__imagepage/img/gcwj1wo3dpJoWGea7PQHRT9p35g=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860651.jpg

...alright, so a horse-drawn carriage is another old-timey vehicle. The carriage and the person in it are solid silhouettes, but the horse drawing the carriage is the opposite - looking lit up, or possibly just empty whiteness in the frame. There is a bridge going over water, and somebody unseen is casting a fishing pole into the river.

There is someone unseen fishing, and I think that's perhaps good info? That a hidden wolf among us is fishing for information in some fashion during D1/N1.

If we think of the carriage as a wagon instead, we can think about it in terms of wagons. There is a person driving, and possibly a horse pulling it, but no passengers. The horse could be absent as well. This could indicate that the people who picked the image wanted to tell us something about the driver trying to start a wagon, but nobody got on board, and nobody was making it move. Alternatively, if the horse is supposed to represent light/goodness, then it's a wagon empty of content started by scum (in black), but it's villagers that got it moving (the white horse).


https://cf.geekdo-images.com/UvVbcDYnV2b_5EGojYsipw__imagepage/img/cSUko01sF-njDbT8vub-VlztmbE=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860694.jpg

A woman in a white dress looks on through a telescope, while a lion sits behind her. Both are on a sailing ship stuck in (or floating over?) what is implied to be sand dunes (implied by the presence of camels in the back).

Given that all four images so far have featured old-timey vehicles, I'm going to drop that particular theory - barring evidence to the contrary, it looks to be a common feature of the cards overall, since we know not all four were sent by one side, it's not necessarily intentional. There are three people outside the boat, one of whom has an oar (which would be less-than-helpful for this sailing ship, regardless of whether it's stuck or floating).

The woman in white looking through a telescope could be saying that an innocent person is getting tunnel-vision, while a predator sits behind them unseen. That's about all I can say for sure.

My mind has been elsewhere for a few days, so I'm not sure who all would be implicated to be town or scum by these, nor am I sure which of these images I can trust to be coming from a good source.

EDIT: There is one association that immediately leapt to mind, actually. The image with the hot air balloon could simply be the message of "being up high", which relates to the word Apogee.

- - - Updated - - -

Without a better idea, I'll vote Let'sGetKraken for the sake of attempting some dueling wagons.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

5th August, 1922

We have set to discuss the Visions received on the 3rd, but it seems there is no consensus on what they mean. Regardless, discussion continued and everyone seemed to agree that gac3 was the most suspect.

Now, I did break into his room to search for evidence: lo and behold, I found private communications addressed to him giving instructions to kill for a mafia! It seems we were right!

When I returned to the main room with evidence, they had already taken care of the perpetrator. I wish they had waited to be sure but either way, it seems like they did well today.


CaoimhinTheCape




gac3 was Mafia.

Night 2 Begins! It will last until Saturday, August 6th, 10:00 PM EST (~24 hours from now)

[bladescape]

Hm.

There was not nearly as much resistance as I would've expected.

- - - Updated - - -

Am I still probably giving Snow towncred for a wolf death when I sus her?

Yes.

[3SecondCultist]

Well, I was wrong! Kraken, I owe you an apology for the wolfread; it seems I was misled.

Interesting to see what visions we get to decipher during D3.

[Snowblaze]

:D

Relieved to find my paranoia was unjustified for once.



Why is Apogee a townlean for you? And what has AV done that is actually above rand for AV?


Guessing "voted a wolf" isn't a valid answer to the first of those? Then just enough unique and understandable takes and analysis without giving me cause for concern. Nothing unfakeable but enough for the gamestate at the time.

As for AV, I have a vague memory that posting walls that are more about general strategy than the specific game is something they're more likely to do as town but on reflection I don't actually think that's what they did? Adding to my list of stuff to re-evaluate.

Probably going to end up breaking the don't-talk-about-alignment-reads rule since I actually have motivation to solve and there's a good chance I don't live to do it D3.

- - - Updated - - -

EOD votecount:

gac3 6: Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, Apogee1, gac3, 3SecondCultist
Let'sGetKraken 2: bladescape, AvatarVecna
Farmerbink 1: flat_footed
Apogee1 1: Farmerbink

- - - Updated - - -


Well, I was wrong! Kraken, I owe you an apology for the wolfread; it seems I was misled.

Interesting to see what visions we get to decipher during D3.

Why would you say you were wrong when you voted a wolf? If you were more confident in wolf!Kraken than wolf!gac, why did you not keep voting Kraken?

- - - Updated - - -

bladescape, can you explain your Farmerbink townread? I think there's a possibility they have partner equity with gac.

- - - Updated - - -


Since your Kraken read is "nearly wolfy... But new so maybe not" it might be worth mentioning again, if any of the clues are suppose to hint towards names, Kraken is both the most obvious person to point out and matches multiple pictures if you assume "general water theme". So... Probably worth FOS due to that, at least as much as farmerbrink does for the fields.

The last sentence of this is what gives me that impression, to be precise. "You should be suspecting Kraken as much as Farmerbink" reads like "stop suspecting my partner when townies have done that too" (okay, neither actually did anything, it was the visions, but you get what I mean).

- - - Updated - - -

Anyway.

Kraken is town, since that post hard unpairs them with gac.

I think we can pretty clearly say wolves weren't making any concerted efforts to save gac, so... what were they doing? Bussing, staying under the radar or just plain not posting?

Either way, I don't think bladescape looks particularly bad from this. I can understand not wanting to follow a case made by your top suspect and I expect wolf!him to have made more of an effort to either save gac or gain towncred from the flip.

[Snowblaze]

Farmerbink, you didn't answer my question about Apogee (I'll go and quote it next, and see if there's any other unanswered questions out there.)


EOD1, now with colours:

Book Wombat 4: gac3, Farmerbink, 3SecondCultist, bladescape
Xihirli 4: Rogan, Let'sGetKraken, Snowblaze, Xihirli
Snowblaze 1: AvatarVecna
3SecondCultist 2: Book Wombat, Apogee1
Rogan 1: flat_footed

Which I think is a decent look for Farmerbink, weird to go out of your way to vote with your partner on a townie that early.

Going to look back at the 3SC wagon and see what gac did with it.

- - - Updated - - -



Farmerbink, read on Apogee now he's shown up and done stuff?

Question for Farmerbink.

- - - Updated - - -


Pretty standard Xi. Also big town lean because I hold to Xi only expresses a desire to die when they are town.
In response to Xihirli being the fourth 3SC vote (incidentally this is really reinforcing my Xihirli townread, I can't see wolf!gac townreading a partner this confidently.)

Welp. Then fewer town points.

Also... Why is 3 second cultists the top wagon? Is there logic here or is this a meme wagon because they voted themselves?
Should have picked up on "Why is X a wagon" being wolfy earlier. Anyway I've seen wolves say this about both partners and townies so not particularly AI.


Votes? Did they cast multiple at that point?

I don't really see the self voting as inherently wolfy. My internal meta usually says it's a good sign. Though that's also usually with some of the players I know better.

- - - Updated - - -

Day feels like it went so fast.

In response to my "do you think the 3SC votes are wolfy?" I'd say that question pretty clearly reads as votes on 3SC rather than votes made by 3SC (though obviously biased since I asked it, other opinions appreciated).

So why would gac make that interpretation, if it's not the natural one? Because they expect people to be calling 3SC wolfy because they know that 3SC is a wolf. Or, that's the first answer that springs to mind, anyway.


I might be confbiased here but it just fits. Would appreciate people checking to make sure I'm not being stupid here.

[Snowblaze]

Town: Kraken, Xihirli
Townlean: bladescape, Apogee
Above null but probably for bad reasons: AvatarVecna
Hovering between weak townlean and weak wolflean: Farmerbink
Null: flat_footed
Wolfy: 3SecondCultist

Is probably where I am pending actually looking through my null pile. Which I will do at some point.

[Xihirli]

Town: Kraken, Xihirli

Here's the moral, folks: Self-voting can be suspicious. Unless you do it really well, then it lands you in the hard-town territory.
I guess this also puts me and Kraken on the short-list for who gets killed, huh? Assuming most people agree here.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I think this pretty much hard-clears Snowblaze here, since she was the first to go after Gac and it seems like throwing suspicion on another wolf would be an absolutely terrible strategy on D2 when neither of them have any heat.


Well, I was wrong! Kraken, I owe you an apology for the wolfread; it seems I was misled.

All good, I would just like people to keep in mind how ridiculously easy my username is to incriminate by wolves, as FarmerBink was discussing. There are so many water-themed cards compared to, say, Cult or time-themed cards.


Here's the moral, folks: Self-voting can be suspicious. Unless you do it really well, then it lands you in the hard-town territory.
I guess this also puts me and Kraken on the short-list for who gets killed, huh? Assuming most people agree here.

3SecondCultist was the one who self-voted, I think you have the two of us confused.


I might be confbiased here but it just fits. Would appreciate people checking to make sure I'm not being stupid here.

Hmm. I can't say I'm 100% convinced, but also.... 3Second cultist did come hard swinging at me with a whole lot of confidence based on pretty unreliable evidence. On its own, that isn't particularly noteworthy - it's the only real information we had available - but then....


Why would you say you were wrong when you voted a wolf? If you were more confident in wolf!Kraken than wolf!gac, why did you not keep voting Kraken?

This could very much be Gac and Cultist deciding that Gac was doomed regardless (as he had four votes) and bandwagoning off of me to reduce suspicion. 3second was the last to vote Gac in what was very much unnecessary bandwagoning at that point.

I guess we'll see who the wolves hit and what the visions say - Cultist is looking decently wolfy right now.

[AvatarVecna]

Pretty standard Xi. Also big town lean because I hold to Xi only expresses a desire to die when they are town.


They were wolf with me in the first game I played with them last year and they expressed an interest in dying then I'm pretty sure.


Welp. Then fewer town points.

Also... Why is 3 second cultists the top wagon? Is there logic here or is this a meme wagon because they voted themselves?

Tentatively clearing blade. I would expect that if gac/blade was w/w gac would try to make a distance-creating argument out of this. I would expect wolf!gac to backpedal like this away from blade if gac knew blade was town and didn't wanna get into an argument with a player that skilled.

- - - Updated - - -


I explain later vanillager... Maybe... I'm only 35% sure I understand why we have decided to claim.

I'll claim Necromancer.

Based on this, I have a few people I'm willing to tentatively clear, and my clear on bladescape is now stronger.

Public poll: should I share my mason buddy's name, for ****s and giggles?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

6th August, 1922

It seems that after the death of one of their own, the mafia have killed in revenge. This time they targeted Xihirli.

However, we also have received another set of Visions! I wonder, was it the recent death that helped the spirits pierce the veil and send us information? But no, the visions have only appeared as the mafia has killed, not as we make a decision for ourselves. No matter. Hopefully these will shed light on the remaining members.

CaoimhinTheCape




Xihirli was Town.

Day 3 Begins! It will last until Monday, August 8th, 10:00 PM EST (~48 hours from now)


https://cf.geekdo-images.com/QnAKM2rbuP3fd71gjfb9TA__imagepage/img/fXrK14j5uqYOHJriYCwgPljevGk=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860607.jpghttps://cf.geekdo-images.com/uvIXog9SVuT47XvoJJtsiw__imagepage/img/PtF3o6xpeJh223fR80mXFFGZHeY=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860623.jpghttps://cf.geekdo-images.com/9awfpPjsZKXtgpAM5Bmvww__imagepage/img/zblImJboBRxEfPFVOOumhbHbUkw=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860636.jpghttps://cf.geekdo-images.com/ezq6DXGgoTD56hgDFuC4wg__imagepage/img/277hth8-yj8JUdthkbH_5zXdebU=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860644.jpghttps://cf.geekdo-images.com/ATcx4A_603VkJCtu74IAaA__imagepage/img/JqnKEq_3ak5zHy2PHWa71vcdewg=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860679.jpg

[bladescape]

I want to reveal that I think wolves would want to put 3 into any vision set.

This is part of why I think the vision for Farmerbink was bogus.

- - - Updated - - -

Therefore follows that I think town included 1 and 2 visions in each set.

[flat_footed]

I want to reveal that I think wolves would want to put 3 into any vision set.

This is part of why I think the vision for Farmerbink was bogus.

- - - Updated - - -

Therefore follows that I think town included 1 and 2 visions in each set.

I mentally grouped the three animal images vs. the umbrella and steampunk. Any thoughts to that?

[Snowblaze]

Welp, I was hoping to die last night. That period of limited availability I mentioned in recruitment starts RL-tomorrow so I'll have to get my solving done today.

3SecondCultist until he answers my questions satisfactorily and/or vision analysis gives me better ideas.

- - - Updated - - -


I mentally grouped the three animal images vs. the umbrella and steampunk. Any thoughts to that?

If umbrella and steampunk are the ones from town, what do you think they're trying to tell us?

[bladescape]

Apogee

Is wolf I'm pretty sure.

- - - Updated - - -

And I think the Moon is specifically aimed at them.

[Snowblaze]

Fourth vision is at least easy to interpret: "people are being pocketed by someone".

Which, on its own, isn't massively useful.

Going to ISO gac.

- - - Updated - - -

Moon = Apogee would make sense, but I'm still going to need an explanation there.

- - - Updated - - -

On skim through gac's D1/N1, seconding AV on it being a good look for bladescape.

Noting gac sent a pokevote Apogee's way at the start of D2, which could be distancing. Need to check gamestate as of Apogee's catchup, see how likely gac looked to die then.

- - - Updated - - -

As of that point there was a gac/Kraken tie and I'd only brought up that one post against them; I think it would have been possible to save gac and push Kraken there for a wolf!Apogee.

The question is, is Apogee the kind of wolf who would try to save a partner if it looks anything less than impossible or the kind who would just cut their losses and bus?

- - - Updated - - -


Let's see. If I had to guess right now?

Then vision based: maybe
Let'sgetKraken
Or Farmerbrink

Definitely not Xi.

Beyond that:
AV is harder for me to read than Xi.
Snowblaze is probably town tbh.
I don't feel I have much on 3second, Apogee, or flat.
And blade... Idk. Slight town lean.

So (how many wolves are there? 3? 4? I'm not going to bother with the math.
I'd say wolves are most likely in
Kraken
Farmer
Apogee
Flat
3sexond cultist

gac's reads list, in response to my asking who the wolves are.

Trying to work out what to make of AV being listed as "hard to read" but then not being added to the POE. I think it comes out as a mildly good look for them.

[Snowblaze]

Right, I'll try and turn my half-formed thoughts into something vaguely coherent.

I'm wondering why I'm still alive when I'm top poster and was consensus town even before I got a wolf killed. It probably means I'm wrong about something.

- Kraken is town
- bladescape is town
- Apogee is town
- 3SC is a wolf

Were/are my more confident reads. So there's a good chance I'm wrong on one or more of those.

- - - Updated - - -

There's always going to be some bladescape tinfoil bouncing around some corner of my head, but rn I can't justify it. The expectations of wolf!bladescape's approach alone aren't enough, but I can understand why he'd wolfread my D1/early D2 and gac interactions look good for him and he also gets townpoints for being first to townread Xihirli and doing it specifically as "AV, stop pushing her".

- - - Updated - - -



Since your Kraken read is "nearly wolfy... But new so maybe not" it might be worth mentioning again, if any of the clues are suppose to hint towards names, Kraken is both the most obvious person to point out and matches multiple pictures if you assume "general water theme". So... Probably worth FOS due to that, at least as much as farmerbrink does for the fields.


Wait... The one with the ship doesn't actually have water... That night poke a hole in my half cocked Kraken theory... Though ship is still water so good enough for now.
(Context: gac is already voting Kraken atp and it's pretty clear day is going to be gac/Kraken wagons)

I'm reasonably sure those quotes just make Kraken town, but would appreciate it if people could check that and see if there's a world where a wolf treats a partner this way.

- - - Updated - - -

So, if my theory about why I'm alive is right,and I'm not misclearing bladescape or Kraken (and yes, I realise those aren't necessarily valid assumptions), then either:

- Apogee is a wolf
- 3SecondCultist is town
- or both.

- - - Updated - - -


I'm around, kind of, for a little bit.

Ended up positively swamped in meetings during the day and busier with family during the night.

I spend a few minutes just now looking at the messages from beyond, nothing really jumped out as an obvious connection.

On that note with what Cao confirmed about 0-3 messages per side I don't think I'll say what an obvious connection might look like until one emerges.
NAI. Would like to know if you think there's an obvious connection in the latest set of visions.


I'm debating internally if the "Coming from a town viewpoint" here is actually how a town is likely to reflect on their own towniness, or is more a wolf worried they want to make this clear.

Not just an idle musing, I've seen players who would cut either way, anyone know if flat-footed is self-aware in this regard often? Like, this is very much the kind of thing I /suspect/ is relatively alignment indicative in a direction, but which direction is dependent on the player.
I can't work out whether this is just a hedgy wolf trying to look like they're doing stuff or whether it's town genuinely pointing out something they think deserves more attention/are turning over in their head.

Tentative read is that a wolf makes this post more often than a villager, with the "to clarify." That kind of clarification is something wolves think about more than villagers ime.

- - - Updated - - -

I've had a long-running read that posts with a lot of "updates" are villagy because it shows a sequence of thoughts comes over time as opposed to be pre-constructed.

This of course is easily gamable, but I'm fine with snow both independently and with it.

- - - Updated - - -
I'm coming back to the whole snowblade voting gac section because spoiler I'm going to end up voting gac and want to talk about that in one post as opposed to over a sequence of catch-up.

3secondcultist (not a vote) can you explain this sentence? "He played it up a bit, which only meant that he was uncertain at the time as to whether or not I'm town. But when taken with the visions - which I think point to him more than anyone else - I get wolfy feelings." Generally I'd think that "he was uncertain at the time as to whether or not I'm town" is a great indicator of someone being a villager, as wolves are cursed with TMI and all that. I'm not sure why taken with the visions causes this to pivot so fully, considering the visions aren't /giving new context to his reaction to you/ just (possibly) indicating he's a wolf because the villagers in deadchat have information he is such?

So wolf!Apogee decides at this point to commit to bussing. (Gamestate didn't change a massive amount between the catchup posts.) Reasonable point against gac though not unfakeable.

I think the updates thing is something he probably believes regardless of alignment, as wolf he's just using it as a way to concede a consensus townread while looking like he's giving unique thoughts.

(Sidenote, that's probably not a valid read for me specifically since iirc I did have posts with lots of updates last game, but from someone who wasn't in last game it's understandable.)

He never actually came back to me voting gac, other than to say my point was reasonable, but I guess expecting him to dissect my reasoning isn't necessarily fair.

3SC point is nitpicky but not invalid. I'd say the flaw in the reasoning, if there is one, is expecting a newbie (ish?) to automatically make the connection to lack of TMI being towny but I don't think it's an actively wolfy flaw.

(Note to self: check whether 3SC ever responded to this.)

gac3

Sorry I got sidetracked with the new hearthstone expansion. Anyways, gac is doing the thing wolves do where they (general they) ponder mechanics in sort of broad ways bouncing between possibilities without linking to specific behaviors in the thread.

Contrast with say Xihirli who has the meander mech posts but gets to an actual point a lot better.

This was slightly abridged but I can talk about it more if people want.

Also thought snow's point was reasonable I guess.
That's definitely not what I'd pick out as wolfy from gac. I liked that at the time because original thoughts and stuff, but...


So. Yeah. I think I probably gave Apogee too much credit for this earlier, I just saw analysis + voting my wolfread and dismissed it as town. There's nothing here that really locks him town.

Does that actually make Apogee a wolf, though? Unsurprisingly, I don't know. I think there's a case that could be constructed but also I don't know that I'd actually believe in that case on a gut level.

Guess I have questions for Apogee:
- thoughts on the stuff I talked about as wolfy for 3SC?
- read on bladescape?
- who are the wolves?

- - - Updated - - -

3SC did not, in fact, respond to Apogee's point.

- - - Updated - - -




Take it whichever way you want. That said I'm really torn on this whole name connection thing. I'm currently banking on Xi to put together any real clues from the visions after that last post. The best I have is "similar to names" but that can't be the only basis because some of us have bad names for that to be the premise of a system. I'm going to probably mostly stick to trying to solve this the old school way.
To my initial "I half agree, half wolfread this"


If it helps I'm pretty sure people used to be still have trouble telling. Snow frequently refers to me as "doing normal weird gac stuff" which I really don't get but oh well.
To Kraken voting them.


Are you sure I can't talk you into considering another wagon? Gac3 is doing that thing gac3 does when he isn't sure how to apply mechanics. And drew Snows attention for agreeing with them. To be fair I do the same thing. If someone agrees with me I'm usually like.. "this is suspicious... No one ever agrees with me"
To Apogee voting them.

And their next post was the self-vote. Which surface-level makes sense for them to do after being bussed/wolves as a whole giving up on keeping them alive.

[bladescape]

Ftr I also think Kraken is town.

[3SecondCultist]

I’m on vacation at my cottage this weekend and dealing with some boat related issues, hence the general lack of replies. I’ll share my thoughts on the visions and respond to some people later, when I’m back in civilization.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I'm wondering why I'm still alive when I'm top poster and was consensus town even before I got a wolf killed. It probably means I'm wrong about something.


So I don't necessarily disagree with this, but if wolves kill you it might also confirm that your theories are valid as you are directly threatening them. I do think that it's a very real possibility that you're wrong on at least one of those, so I do want to hear from Cultist and Apogee once they're able to respond.

I also want to hear from bladescape as to how Gac3's necromancer thing clears or confirms others? Is this a reference to a past game?

On the subject of the visions - do we think it's more likely that deadwolves will send a consistent targeting, or a wider range of visions to obfuscate as possible? Determines how we approach the analysis.

[AvatarVecna]

Ftr I also think Kraken is town.

Why tho???

EDIT: As I'm getting into the wagonomics, I'm seeing the reason. Belay that question. EoD wagons were very different from mid-day, should've realized.

- - - Updated - - -



Post 80

Apogee1: gac3

Post 84

Apogee1 (1): gac3
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted

Post 86

Apogee1 (1): gac3
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken

Post 87

Apogee1 (1): gac3
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape

Post 94

Apogee1 (1): gac3
FarmerBink (2): flatfooted, Snowblaze
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape

Post 106-1

Apogee1 (1): gac3
FarmerBink (2): flatfooted, Snowblaze
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape
Let'sGetKraken (1): FarmerBink

Post 106-2

Apogee1 (2): gac3, FarmerBink
FarmerBink (2): flatfooted, Snowblaze
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape

Post 107

Apogee1 (2): gac3, FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape
gac3 (1): Snowblaze

Post 108

Apogee1 (2): gac3, FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape
Let'sGetKraken (1): 3SecondCultist
gac3 (1): Snowblaze

Post 112

Apogee1 (2): gac3, FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape
Let'sGetKraken (1): 3SecondCultist
gac3 (2): Snowblaze, Xihirli

Post 113

Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape
Let'sGetKraken (2): 3SecondCultist, gac3
gac3 (2): Snowblaze, Xihirli

Post 114

Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
Snowblaze (1): bladescape
Let'sGetKraken (2): 3SecondCultist, gac3
gac3 (3): Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken

Post 128

Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
Snowblaze (1): bladescape
Let'sGetKraken (2): 3SecondCultist, gac3
gac3 (4): Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, Apogee1

Post 132

Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
Snowblaze (1): bladescape
Let'sGetKraken (1): 3SecondCultist
gac3 (5): Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, Apogee1, gac3

Post 134

Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
Let'sGetKraken (2): 3SecondCultist, bladescape
gac3 (5): Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, Apogee1, gac3

Post 138

Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
Let'sGetKraken (1): bladescape
gac3 (6): Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, Apogee1, gac3, 3SecondCultist

Post 146

Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
Let'sGetKraken (2): bladescape, AvatarVecna
gac3 (6): Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, Apogee1, gac3, 3SecondCultist



Game started with 12 players. That's 2-3 starting wolves, and I'm gonna assume three because assuming two when there's really three is bad for us, but assuming three when there's two just makes us a little too paranoid.

Probably Clear IMO
AvatarVecna
Let'sGetKraken
bladescape
Snowblaze

Potential Wolves
flat_footed
FarmerBink
3SecondCultist
Apogee1

[AvatarVecna]

Let's see if we can do pairing/unpairing.


Welp. Then fewer town points.

Also... Why is 3 second cultists the top wagon? Is there logic here or is this a meme wagon because they voted themselves?

The game's barely started and gac is getting jumpy about a 2-vote wagon on a new player, while there's other single vote wagons in the field. This feels weird, but more in a "normal for gac" way than a "paired with 3SC" way.

(also, regarding the talk about nicknames for 3SecondCultist I saw at some point: I'm probably never gonna call them Cultist for short cuz I don't wanna create confusion.)


Votes? Did they cast multiple at that point?

I don't really see the self voting as inherently wolfy. My internal meta usually says it's a good sign. Though that's also usually with some of the players I know better.

- - - Updated - - -

Day feels like it went so fast.

Here's the progression:

1) scum!gac expresses worry about the two-vote wagon on 3SC so early in the day.

2) town!snow asks scum!gac if he thinks those votes are wolfy.

3a) scum!gac forgot his expressed worry in point 1, and thinks town!snow is asking gac thinks 3SC changing votes (which they didn't do) is wolfy. gac is confused, because the question seems to be nonsense.

3b) scum!gac has been called out on their concern, and backpedals in the face of town!snow the same way they did in the face of town!blade. scum!gac pretends to misunderstand the question rather than having to make a definitive statement on their earlier concern that could be construed as them defending a scumbuddy from an early D1 wagon forming.

I personally think 3b is more likely, and fits gac's D1 behavior better, but I'd like people's opinions.


- That... Actually makes a lot more sense. I will get back to you on the answer though. I'll look more closely and see. Instinct though, it was more "I don't understand" than anything though since Book was the other wagon and died, that makes the votes inherently less suspicious as a whole I think.

Also crap, I need to catch up. We have two seer claims?

- - - Updated - - -

Oh. I see. I got you. I'm hip. I'm game. I'm cool. Actually no. I'm still confused but I almost have a theory.

"since Book was the other wagon and died, that makes the votes inherently less suspicious."

Book died and flipped town. Being the counterwagon to a townie is NAI. Being on the counterwagon to a townie does not give the people who voted 3SC towncred. This feels like more backpedaling to try and downplay gac's initial defensive reaction.


*Note, check who AV is talking about.*

Another reason I didn't vote Xi. I'm still town reading them and since the available visions are limited anyways, I'd rather have the players I trust most helping make sense of them than helping send them. Though my opinion on. Xi's self voting argument may change once we see these visions and I see how easy/hard they seem to be to analyze.

- - - Updated - - -



Well not really? Not saying the people can't be wolves but four people voted that wagon and there was only one competing wagon. Since we know said competing wagon was a townie, I don't see any reason to assume this wagon was wolf motivated or anything. People on it could be wolves but I don't think the suddenness of the wagon or the votes themselves are wolf indicative.

More of the same.


Assuming that was referencing me, I always under state my confidence percentages. I could see something happen and go "I'm 70% sure this happened"

- - - Updated - - -

Over 50 means I'm more confident than doubtful.

gac gets called out by a dangerous townie, and immediately backpedals to look less suspicious. 3 for 3.


Ah! That makes sense.

- - - Updated - - -

Okay. I need some big brains. Part of me is like "what if it's hint towards our names" and then the best I got was water for Kracken? If that's a farm house in the sand maybe farmer? Though that wouldn't help for people like me? How could a picture hint towards my name when it's just my initials? So maybe they relate to posts we've made? I'll try to look and see if that holds up.

- - - Updated - - -

I'll probably check that later since I start work in a couple minutes.


You say that, but I'm still struggling to understand what town knows and how it could translate into these pictures.

- - - Updated - - -

To clarify I meant what "dead town knows"

gac pretends to not know that the game premise is "dead town knows who the wolves are, and will send pictures that try to tell town who the wolves are".


Oh. They might know who the wolves are? That would make sense. Has that been confirmed? My point is more "I have no idea what they know. For all we know they have the ability to see the wolf chat? Have a list of wolves? Have to work on their own reads? I have no idea, which makes it a little harder to figure out what angle to look at the visions from. Probably safe to assume they have a list of wolves though.



Agreed on Xi. Pretty heavy town lean on them. Because they feel like town Xi.



Well... My original theory was it was a "shoot me wolves, no shoot me, no shoot me" kind of thing but then people kept saying it was just fun so I'm thinking I'm wrong.


Someone mentioned Mysterium being a real thing... Do the cards have specific meaning in the game? Like is this an "additional research may help" thing?

More of the above.


Since your Kraken read is "nearly wolfy... But new so maybe not" it might be worth mentioning again, if any of the clues are suppose to hint towards names, Kraken is both the most obvious person to point out and matches multiple pictures if you assume "general water theme". So... Probably worth FOS due to that, at least as much as farmerbrink does for the fields.

"Kraken is at least as suspicious as Bink"

This is the post that clears Kraken, btw. I could see a ruthless gac voting a novice scumbuddy as a counterwagon to himself to try and get some towncred, but gac was throwing Kraken under the bus long before that, and it was all paired with his attempts to downplay how much the dead townies could possibly know.

I will clarify: the strongest indication we have that the visions are Saying Something is the fact that gac was trying to subtly undermine them by questioning dead town's knowledge, and casting shade on the validity of the visions. gac had more information than us on if visions were relating to particular scum players, and something in that first batch spooked him. So he cast shade onto Kraken, and mildly tried to undermine the shade on Bink.


Still reading Kraken's post but I believe the pool is 6 and they pick up to 3. I could be wrong though.

- - - Updated - - -

Also I think NAI means Not Alignment Indicative... But when I asked, I'm pretty sure nobody confirmed or denied.

- - - Updated - - -



Take it whichever way you want. That said I'm really torn on this whole name connection thing. I'm currently banking on Xi to put together any real clues from the visions after that last post. The best I have is "similar to names" but that can't be the only basis because some of us have bad names for that to be the premise of a system. I'm going to probably mostly stick to trying to solve this the old school way.

More undermining and pretending to be unsure of how it works, in the same post that he tries to correct somebody on a minor point of the mechanics. Gac knows how it works, he's just pretending not to.


Let's see. If I had to guess right now?

Then vision based: maybe
Let'sgetKraken
Or Farmerbrink

Definitely not Xi.

Beyond that:
AV is harder for me to read than Xi.
Snowblaze is probably town tbh.
I don't feel I have much on 3second, Apogee, or flat.
And blade... Idk. Slight town lean.

So (how many wolves are there? 3? 4? I'm not going to bother with the math.
I'd say wolves are most likely in
Kraken
Farmer
Apogee
Flat
3sexond cultist

Something in this post was initially a red flag for me, but in retrospect it's too fuzzy to be sure. If the red flag is correct, FarmerBink is scum, which matches up with the way gac3 tried to downplay the FarmerBink suspicion while building up the Kraken suspicion in a previous post.


Are you sure I can't talk you into considering another wagon? Gac3 is doing that thing gac3 does when he isn't sure how to apply mechanics. And drew Snows attention for agreeing with them. To be fair I do the same thing. If someone agrees with me I'm usually like.. "this is suspicious... No one ever agrees with me"

Oh. This is distancing.

I think I've got something. Gimme a few minutes...

- - - Updated - - -

Here's one perspective on the D2 wagonomics:


Okay... Before I analyze these pictures to death:

Was the thing about tie votes just leftover?

Second to get a vote out there on someone less active until I come up with a real reason Apogee

- - - Updated - - -

Ninja'd on the first thing.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, for some reason I thought it was going to be 6 images.

gac3 drops a vote on Apogee1 that's explicitly not supposed to last.


Ah! That makes sense.

- - - Updated - - -

Okay. I need some big brains. Part of me is like "what if it's hint towards our names" and then the best I got was water for Kracken? If that's a farm house in the sand maybe farmer? Though that wouldn't help for people like me? How could a picture hint towards my name when it's just my initials? So maybe they relate to posts we've made? I'll try to look and see if that holds up.

- - - Updated - - -

I'll probably check that later since I start work in a couple minutes.

gac casts a bit of easy shade on Kraken. gac sees the pictures that accuse Bink, and doesn't wanna look dumb for ignoring them, so he throws a bit of waffly shade on Bink.

In between this post and his next one, flat_footed votes for FarmerBink based on the images.


You say that, but I'm still struggling to understand what town knows and how it could translate into these pictures.

- - - Updated - - -

To clarify I meant what "dead town knows"

gac3 immediately throws shade on whether we can even trust that dead townies know who the wolves are. To clarify, here is how "vague" Cao has been about what dead townies know:


When you die, you will be told the names of everyone in the Mafia. Then, you will be given access to a chat for your alignment (Town or Mafia).

Town Ghosts will be given a set of Visions that they can choose from to send to the players and hint at who is in the Mafia. Each Night, Town Ghosts can discuss and send up to 3 Visions to the Town, which will be shown to everyone at the start of the Day Phase. Any Visions you send will be replaced with new Visions as options for the next Night.

Mafia Ghosts will also be given a set of Visions they can choose from to send to the players to confuse them. These visions will be sent to the players as well, with nothing to distinguish Mafia Visions from Town Visions.

Cao has stated, in no uncertain terms, that dead townies know who the wolves are, and that pics sent by dead townies are (or at least, are supposed to) point to who they know to be scum.

So when gac says something like...


Oh. They might know who the wolves are? That would make sense. Has that been confirmed? My point is more "I have no idea what they know. For all we know they have the ability to see the wolf chat? Have a list of wolves? Have to work on their own reads? I have no idea, which makes it a little harder to figure out what angle to look at the visions from. Probably safe to assume they have a list of wolves though.

...when the first post of both the recruitment thread and the game thread make it explicit that dead town knows who the wolves are, gac3 is casting shade on dead townies. He is doing this after he made a post trying to interpret the images, and after a post that used those interpretations as a reason to vote FarmerBink. That is the point at which gac3 started trying to pretend he didn't know if dead town knew who the wolves were.

In between this post and the next one, Snowblaze votes FarmerBink


Since your Kraken read is "nearly wolfy... But new so maybe not" it might be worth mentioning again, if any of the clues are suppose to hint towards names, Kraken is both the most obvious person to point out and matches multiple pictures if you assume "general water theme". So... Probably worth FOS due to that, at least as much as farmerbrink does for the fields.

gac responds to Snowblaze (the most recent voter, who voted FarmerBink) with "you think Kraken is kinda scummy? Well I know I've been shading the visions for several posts now, but if the visions implicate Bink, they implicate Kraken at least as much, if not more!"


Take it whichever way you want. That said I'm really torn on this whole name connection thing. I'm currently banking on Xi to put together any real clues from the visions after that last post. The best I have is "similar to names" but that can't be the only basis because some of us have bad names for that to be the premise of a system. I'm going to probably mostly stick to trying to solve this the old school way.

gac flip-flops back and forth between using the pics to implicate Kraken, and insisting that 'who can say if they even mean anything at all'. Kraken is hard-cleared IMO at this point, and things are looking bad for Bink.


Finally, several hours later, the man shambles in. Somewhat better-sheveled, for having slept, he nonetheless is actively rubbing the overnight crust from the creases of his eyes. "Hells, somebody else died?" he groans, looking down thoughtfully at the sheet-covered form. "Well that's no good." He frowns deeply before stepping around him with a subtle, respectful gesture of farewell.

"Rogan, was it? I suppose that doesn't tell us overmuch. Obviously the killers were out and about last night, but we already suspected as much." He looks around the room slowly, hesitating only briefly on a few faces before realizing that several are looking aggressively at him.

"Might sound a bit odd, but I generally trust Flat_Footed and Snowblaze. Simply put, I don't know anything, and that makes me a poor choice for the killers to want to off during the day. I'm not gonna contribute to that effort, for reasons I suspect are obvious, but I don't have much to contrib- oh, what's this?" His rambling thoughts finally lead the images into his field of view, and he eagerly approaches the table.

"This... these are portents from beyond?!" he gapes. Like an eager child with a new toy, he rifles through the images. Almost immediately, the excitement fades. "I... I don't know exactly what he expected, but this is all Greek to me," he mumbles.

"I see... vehicles.... Acrobats and tradesmen. Fishermen and oars, over fields and houses of sand- oh, and sandbags?? That's a theme. Horses and Camels, ropes throughout? Wheels in the sky, and wheels on the bridge...

Vehicles
Ropes
Sand
Animals
Water

These are the themes I see...." He ponders for some time, utterly unconcerned for the fingers literally and figuratively directed at him. "In the interest of putting it out there, I think the spirits from beyond want you dead, Let'sGetKraken"



Soooo I did a bad thing, and paid little attention to the timing on this game. I'm visiting family, and don't really expect to be paying hard attention throughout the day. In all seriousness, I won't feel horribly bad if I get offed. I hate to "waste" it, but I may be a waste to the town alive, anyway. And further, I have increasingly less positive input without knowing how these details work (3 images each? 3/1? 2/2? Each ghost gets one?) :-\ Edit: Those details hit ninja'ed, but don't really offer any clarity. *shrugs*

To that end, what "crunch" I've begun framing:

I like the five themes mentioned. Each one seems to well incorporate 2 (and decently well a 3rd) images. Without knowing more about the specific breakdown, I think that's as good a start as any. For reiteration: Vehicles Ropes, Sand, Animals, Water are all decent themes. We could get more specific, but I'm already having trouble connecting them to any names, except *maybe* water -> Kraken (and animal -> Kraken?). Vehicles and wheels have something of an inverse connotation with Flat_Footed, but the inverse connotations are nearly always accidental in actual Mysterium.

edit again:

That is *TOTALLY BELIEVABLE* I know as wolf I would want to make as much noise as possible, though that immediately creates a radically new meta to try to track O_o.

Hrmph.

Given that new development, I'm going to vote Apogee in a simple effort to keep people from being silent wolves.

Apogee

Bink sees gac pushing Kraken and jumps on, but after reading through the thread, realizes there's not actually anybody else voting Kraken, whereas there's two people voting Bink. Bink initially votes somebody he thinks is a good counterwagon to himself, but then switches to the same wagon as gac (a wagon that gac has explicitly said he'll abandon once he has a reason to vote elsewhere), to provoke activity from Apogee1. Which means Bink also doesn't intend to keep his vote here, even though this otherwise looks like a vote to save himself?

In between that post and the next one, two people vote gac3, and one person votes Kraken.


Let's see. If I had to guess right now?

Then vision based: maybe
Let'sgetKraken
Or Farmerbrink

Definitely not Xi.

Beyond that:
AV is harder for me to read than Xi.
Snowblaze is probably town tbh.
I don't feel I have much on 3second, Apogee, or flat.
And blade... Idk. Slight town lean.

So (how many wolves are there? 3? 4? I'm not going to bother with the math.
I'd say wolves are most likely in
Kraken
Farmer
Apogee
Flat
3sexond cultist

gac doesn't wanna provoke blade by accusing blade/Xi, doesn't wanna provoke AV by accusing AV, doesn't wanna provoke Snow by accusing snow (we've already seen gac back away from confrontation with all three of them so far this game), so gac gestures to literally everybody else and says "wolves are there probably". Meaningless.

The more useful information, IMO: the way gac moved his vote actually put himself in danger. If he had stayed on Apogee, Apogee would've been the first to reach 2 votes, before gac did. By switching to Kraken, gac is putting himself in the line of fire, in the hopes that putting his money where his mouth is (by voting kraken) will make townies think he's town, and that by switching to that wagon, other wolves can maybe jump on to save him. Tentative pairing between gac3 and Apogee. Incidentally, I think this tentatively unpairs gac and 3SC - Kraken suspicion or no, I would think scum!gac would join a wagon with a townie already on it, rather than one with a scumbuddy already on it, to increase the scumteam's ability to get that person lynched.

This post is immediately followed by Kraken voting gac, so the vote is now gac3 3/Let'sGetKraken 2.


Just kind of confused over Apogee's continued silence. :smallconfused:

FarmerBink has reason to believe Apogee should be more active in gamethread than he is, even though Bink has seen a number of players just tend to be quiet, and could reasonably assume Apogee is one of them, since he's never played with Apogee before.

...unless, of course, Bink and Apogee are both wolves, and Apogee has been more active in scum chat. Then this confusion makes perfect sense.


I'm around, kind of, for a little bit.

Ended up positively swamped in meetings during the day and busier with family during the night.

I spend a few minutes just now looking at the messages from beyond, nothing really jumped out as an obvious connection.

On that note with what Cao confirmed about 0-3 messages per side I don't think I'll say what an obvious connection might look like until one emerges.

Apogee emerges to make a post that contains nothing of content - in fact, it acknowledges that Apogee has thoughts he's currently refusing to share. It also states he's got a bit of time to post - not much, just a little bit.


I'm debating internally if the "Coming from a town viewpoint" here is actually how a town is likely to reflect on their own towniness, or is more a wolf worried they want to make this clear.

Not just an idle musing, I've seen players who would cut either way, anyone know if flat-footed is self-aware in this regard often? Like, this is very much the kind of thing I /suspect/ is relatively alignment indicative in a direction, but which direction is dependent on the player.

Apogee casts some mild shade on FF.


Tentative read is that a wolf makes this post more often than a villager, with the "to clarify." That kind of clarification is something wolves think about more than villagers ime.

- - - Updated - - -

I've had a long-running read that posts with a lot of "updates" are villagy because it shows a sequence of thoughts comes over time as opposed to be pre-constructed.

This of course is easily gamable, but I'm fine with snow both independently and with it.

- - - Updated - - -



I'm coming back to the whole snowblade voting gac section because spoiler I'm going to end up voting gac and want to talk about that in one post as opposed to over a sequence of catch-up.

3secondcultist (not a vote) can you explain this sentence? "He played it up a bit, which only meant that he was uncertain at the time as to whether or not I'm town. But when taken with the visions - which I think point to him more than anyone else - I get wolfy feelings." Generally I'd think that "he was uncertain at the time as to whether or not I'm town" is a great indicator of someone being a villager, as wolves are cursed with TMI and all that. I'm not sure why taken with the visions causes this to pivot so fully, considering the visions aren't /giving new context to his reaction to you/ just (possibly) indicating he's a wolf because the villagers in deadchat have information he is such?

Apogee casts some mild shade on gac3, then instead of digging into all the obfuscation about the basic concept of the game I pointed out, Apogee starts digging into people's posts instead of chasing down the gac stuff.


Frankly, the clear water theme in the pictures is making me not want to go Kraken, since at least some of those I suspect came from the wolves.

Xihirli (trusted townie) points out the issue with the Kraken wagon.


I'm agreeing more here as I think about it. The decision of how many images to send seems very obvious- at least in this case. Wolves: send all the images! Town: I'm not sure what's helpful, but this one might be?

It's part of why I changed my vote away from Kraken. I hate to see Apogee town lynched for being busy today, but lsat game like 2 of the wolves had super low posts (and then there was Snowblaze XD)

Now that Apogee has posted, Bink should be looking for a new wagon since activity has been provoked. And instead, Bink claims that he actually thought of Xihirli's point first, and him voting Apogee instead had nothing to do with saving his own hide, and was actually unstated 4D chess regarding the images. Wish he'd mentioned this thought earlier, maybe pushed back against gac3 when gac was pushing hard on Kraken. Wonder why he didn't. Who can say.

Like seriously, the post flow is "I agree with this as I think more about it. In fact, I was actually thinking about this hours ago, when I changed my vote from Kraken to Apogee". Additionally, I think this post in particular is a wolf play, but it only makes sense in the context of the next post:


gac3

Sorry I got sidetracked with the new hearthstone expansion. Anyways, gac is doing the thing wolves do where they (general they) ponder mechanics in sort of broad ways bouncing between possibilities without linking to specific behaviors in the thread.

Contrast with say Xihirli who has the meander mech posts but gets to an actual point a lot better.

This was slightly abridged but I can talk about it more if people want.

Also thought snow's point was reasonable I guess.

At this point, Apogee's "only a little bit of time" has lasted a bit over an hour. He's been reading through the thread, and he can tell that gac is screwed. Apogee saw that the wagons were gac 3/Kraken 2, and could've voted Kraken to tie things up. But at some point in that hour (when gac, Bink, and Apogee were all online), Apogee told them how he was gonna vote. He laid out a case for why gac was already caught based on scumslips. He told gac that if Apogee votes Kraken, all it's gonna do is mean that when gac swings, AV/blade/Snow/Xi will all be after Apogee's butt next - and same for Bink if Bink switches too. If Apogee and Bink both switch to put kraken in the lead, it potentially gets all three caught in short order if more people join the gac wagon. gac accepts his fate, Bink makes a post clarifying why he's not gonna join the kraken wagon, and then Apogee votes gac into a solid lead, and then gac does his little "are you sure I can't convince you" post. Those are three posts in a row, 127-129, and it's all wolf theatre. It's Apogee trying to save himself and Bink from the sinking ship of SS Gac3.


Ugh. Literally saying gac is doing weird gac stuff and is nullish. Because you say that so often. And TBF not just you. It's to the point that when someone acts like I'm making sense I wolf read them because I'm always being told I think weird. Yet then I try to lean into it with comments about being weird. Whatever. Not even relevant to me defending my alignment. Just personally very annoying.
People: "Gac is weird. Gac is weird."
Gac: "haha yeah. I'm weird."
People: "gac is trying to hide his wolfiness by saying he's weird.

It's not even the good kind of weird that comes with AV and Xi and Snowblaze. Ugh.


First off... Why am I the highest poster? I keep feeling like I'm barely checking in.

Why are you town? I mean I don't know for sure you are. Unlike Xi. Definitely town there. But I'm leaning that way. You are talking more than anyone and are being your regular level of paranoid instead of your boosted wolf paranoid.

Why wouldn't town you line up with that?

- - - Updated - - -

Still think Kraken might be a good target but screw it. I'm curious how this game looks from the other side. Gac3

gac's next (and final) post are a bit of NAI complaining about how he's always suspected for the weirdest things, and then votes himself. This is the last chance they have to avoid gac getting lynched: have gac visibly give up, and hope that pity or something makes town second-guess themselves and choose another wagon.


Let'sGetKraken

This whole thing convinced bladescape that gac is guilty, so now blade is hoping to bait wolves onto the kraken wagon. I ended up doing the same thing, although when I did it, the gap was too big and the time remaining was too small for it to have a chance. 3SC jumping from kraken to gac seals the deal.


"I only have one question to add," the tired man interjects.

"Hypothetically, let's assume gac3 is wolf. How on earth does our friendly spirit successfully supply images that point at him? What about his name could be tied to any of these images?."

"My vote means nothing at this rate, as I've no particularly confident wolf lean to even challenge that gac wagon with Kraken. No reason to move it."

I'm afraid we've run into a hard issue ((with the system)). Without some sort of public "role" assignment with imagery or symbolism, we're stuck trying to make pictures look like words names (which are often somewhat nonsensical in their own right)

Bink starts doing the exact same "who can even say what any of it means" talk that gac was doing. Wolves just can't help themselves.

Under that theory, these are the town images from N2:


https://cf.geekdo-images.com/9awfpPjsZKXtgpAM5Bmvww__imagepage/img/zblImJboBRxEfPFVOOumhbHbUkw=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860636.jpg

https://cf.geekdo-images.com/ezq6DXGgoTD56hgDFuC4wg__imagepage/img/277hth8-yj8JUdthkbH_5zXdebU=/fit-in/900x600/filters:no_upscale():strip_icc()/pic2860644.jpg

The first is the moon holding an umbrella to protect itself from the rain.


1.
the highest point in the development of something; a climax or culmination.
"the White House is considered the apogee of American achievement"
2.
ASTRONOMY
the point in the orbit of the moon or a satellite at which it is furthest from the earth.

Apogee's name directly relates to the moon, and Apogee's actions make sense in the context of shielding himself from discovery.

The second is pet animals hiding in someone's pocket. This is Bink, who has slipped into bladescape's pocket.

Apogee1

[Apogee1]

I want to reveal that I think wolves would want to put 3 into any vision set.

This is part of why I think the vision for Farmerbink was bogus.

- - - Updated - - -

Therefore follows that I think town included 1 and 2 visions in each set.


Apogee

Is wolf I'm pretty sure.

- - - Updated - - -

And I think the Moon is specifically aimed at them.

Bladescape

Pretty sure blade cooked this up in wolfchat. (I'll caveat that by saying AV tumbled to the same conclusion, although I'm not sure if AV would also be on the wolfteam here or independently getting to that by googling Apogee, but it reasonated hard here with blade).

As maybe some of you but at least blade know, I play mafia on MU as well, where both my forum and discord avatar are a moon. Blade is probably the only person in the game to know this. This image is played only after the first wolf (gac) is killed, and it strikes me as highly highly coincidental that an image that very strongly points to me is played with that sequence. And yeah, most of these images probably came from wolves (blade is right in the first post if the wolves are approaching this like I'd expect, which is why I was hesitant to read into the four images from yesterday).

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The question is, is Apogee the kind of wolf who would try to save a partner if it looks anything less than impossible or the kind who would just cut their losses and bus?


The former, quite strongly.

- - - Updated - - -

My 3SC read is largely contingent on a response to that question, because I just can't parse the thought process that gets to that conclusion. Going to bump it so hopefully he sees.

- - - Updated - - -




3secondcultist (not a vote) can you explain this sentence? "He played it up a bit, which only meant that he was uncertain at the time as to whether or not I'm town. But when taken with the visions - which I think point to him more than anyone else - I get wolfy feelings." Generally I'd think that "he was uncertain at the time as to whether or not I'm town" is a great indicator of someone being a villager, as wolves are cursed with TMI and all that. I'm not sure why taken with the visions causes this to pivot so fully, considering the visions aren't /giving new context to his reaction to you/ just (possibly) indicating he's a wolf because the villagers in deadchat have information he is such?

3SC? Explaination?

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This whole thing convinced bladescape that gac is guilty, so now blade is hoping to bait wolves onto the kraken wagon. I ended up doing the same thing, although when I did it, the gap was too big and the time remaining was too small for it to have a chance. 3SC jumping from kraken to gac seals the deal.


:mitd:

Why is this the explanation for blade?

[AvatarVecna]

Why is this the explanation for blade?

1) Because blade has done this in like every recent game.

2) There is a separate really good reason to townread blade that I don't feel like specifying because gac didn't understand and turned out to be a wolf.

3) Because the alternative is that scum!blade saw 1 person on Kraken and 5 people on gac, and decided they were gonna hopelessly join the counterwagon. It's a strategy only used by desperate unskilled scum, and neither of those should describe bladescape at this point in the game.

[3SecondCultist]

Yeah, nope. I’ve had a very trying weekend of being accused of being a liar IRL, and I have about lost my patience with it. Nothing to do with the game, but I would rather die and just be a ghost at this point, thanks.

Made a mistake going for Kraken from the start, that was stupid. It let gac slip in and throw support for me. For what it’s worth, Apogee and Bink are almost certainly the wolves. AV nailed it.

3SecondCultist. Just kill me and get it over with.

[AvatarVecna]

I'm also gonna say that most of my case has nothing to do with the images, it's analyzing behavior of players in-thread. I have what feels to me to he a reasonable conclusion based on how the three of you were acting D2. The fact that it matches up well with the images we got last nice is nice potentially-corroborating evidence, but it's not even close to the crux of my argument.

[3SecondCultist]

Realizing my prior post could be construed as a ploy or something, so instead of asking town to waste their votes killing me, I will drop.

[bladescape]

So, does Apogee not know that the wolves who send fake visions are not talking to the wolves alive?

Is that a derp tell I care to read into?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

- - - Updated - - -

Sorry to hear IRL is currently like that for you 3SC, good luck in getting things sorted.

- - - Updated - - -


1) Because blade has done this in like every recent game.

2) There is a separate really good reason to townread blade that I don't feel like specifying because gac didn't understand and turned out to be a wolf.

3) Because the alternative is that scum!blade saw 1 person on Kraken and 5 people on gac, and decided they were gonna hopelessly join the counterwagon. It's a strategy only used by desperate unskilled scum, and neither of those should describe bladescape at this point in the game.

In all fairness, as scum I could know that you are going to assume this of me and fake it by joining that wagon anyway.

At that point 3 and 1 are invalid.

I'm curious about 2.

- - - Updated - - -

Why Xi and why are AV/Snow/Myself all alive still.

I don't believe that a wolf team with Gac on it would be unaware of the stopping power that Snow/Me/AV represent in a game if we're all town.

Is this wifom play?

- - - Updated - - -

I reread Apogee's post and realised it wasn't a derp. I see that he's insinuating that I sent Gac to graveyard with instructions.

[AvatarVecna]

I reread Apogee's post and realised it wasn't a derp. I see that he's insinuating that I sent Gac to graveyard with instructions.

If Apogee's theory is right, then i guess scum!you must be thanking your lucky stars that dead-scum-chat immediately got an image with a very prominent moon by complete coincidence. :smalltongue:

[bladescape]

If Apogee's theory is right, then i guess scum!you must be thanking your lucky stars that dead-scum-chat immediately got an image with a very prominent moon by complete coincidence. :smalltongue:

Scum!Me is very thankful to have the moon yes.

[AvatarVecna]

The reason we're still alive is the only reason we're ever still alive as townied: wolves killing us themselves would mean town has to reconsider our theories knowing we're town, and that wolves think they have a better chance of getting town to mislynch us later in the game.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Why Xi and why are AV/Snow/Myself all alive still.

I don't believe that a wolf team with Gac on it would be unaware of the stopping power that Snow/Me/AV represent in a game if we're all town.

Is this wifom play?



For the new players (only me now, I suppose - sorry IRL stuff got rough Cultist), what does wifom mean?

[AvatarVecna]

For the new players (only me now, I suppose - sorry IRL stuff got rough Cultist), what does wifom mean?

There is a scene in The Princess Bride where two people have a battle of wits. There are two cups of wine, and one vial of undetectable poison. One person picks which cup of wine the poison goes in, the other person picks which cup of wine they will personally drink, and then both of them drink their wine. The winner is whoever is alive. It's a battle of wits. In the scene, the person picking which cup to drink talks himself in circles, giving reasons why it might be in this cup, but then a reason why it's actually in the other cup. "And that's why I can obviously not pick the wine in front of me."

When it comes up in a WW/Mafia game, "WIFOM" (literally "Wine In Front Of Me") refers to that kind of circular reasoning. In a game of werewolf, regardless of what side you're on, you generally want people to think you're a villager. Thus, taking pro-village moves is a good idea for either side...but wolves want to take moves that look pro-villager, but are actually secretly anti-villager. Alternatively, the can take a move that is normally taken by wolves playing unsubtly (or townies playing badly) and make the real townies try and figure out which is which.

As a recent example, we can see that when the wagons were gac 5/Kraken 1, bladescape decided to jump onto the Kraken wagon. This could be villager!bladescape joining the wagon they suspect the most, even as they know it won't accomplish anything. This could also be scum!bladescape jumping on the counterwagon to gac3, in the hopes that other townies will jump on the Kraken wagon, making it possible for gac3 to survive the day. It's also possible that villager!bladescape joined the wagon because he suspects that wolves will see him on gac's counterwagon, and will jump to try and tip it over into winning...and thus, bladescape has caught a second wolf, in addition to gac3. It's also possible that scum!bladescape took this move to try and save a scumbuddy, knowing that I would (from previous game experience with blade) think that blade was a townie trying to bait wolves onto a wolves' counterwagon.

You can see how this can get very circular. Any pro-town action seems like it should be coming from a townie, but it could also be coming from a wolf who is only taking that action in order to pretend to be a townie. Anything you think is evidence of trustworthiness might just be a trick in order to provoke that exact reaction. This kind of analysis is called Wine In Front Of Me (WIFOM).

Of course, the way to deal with a WIFOM situation in a game is obvious, if you've seen the movie.

[bladescape]

For the new players (only me now, I suppose - sorry IRL stuff got rough Cultist), what does wifom mean?

Wine in Front of Me.

If you've seen Princess Bride, it's the iconic scene.

- - - Updated - - -

Nevermind AV answered that much better.

[Farmerbink]

I want to formally apologize to you guys. I have not held up my end of the bargain on this game. As much as I've ragged on Apogee for inaction, I've done the same or worse. Sorry.

I also expect to be markedly more active now that I'm not out of town juggling AC repair for my parent's while they're out of town, and also dealing with sick kids and blah blah blah. I'm back home now, and anticipate a substantially more "normal" next several weeks. For what it's worth.

NOW! To the meat:

The bedraggled farmer looks up, as if from a daze. "Oh, he was mafia!? That's convenient. Somewhat lessens my likelihood of a premature demise. Neat."
"I have defended you, Farmer, on the ideal that these visions do not match so well as some would like them to match you. Now, see this council has roused its ire differently, I must ask, what takes do you have?"

"I am not asking you to sus anyone, as you admit our oddly named compatriot is your best guess for our unlikeable guests, but do you have any thoughts of a shade lighter and more trustworthy?"
Turning to the white-haired figure, he shrugs. "I thought it was plain, I've no idea what's going on. I'm hopeful another set of images will help me... well, make sense of something." He starts visibly when the images appear.

After a few moments of scrutiny, he frowns. "... or not."


FarmerBink has reason to believe Apogee should be more active in gamethread than he is, even though Bink has seen a number of players just tend to be quiet, and could reasonably assume Apogee is one of them, since he's never played with Apogee before.

Ironically, I've also been extremely inactive. Kinda like I said, it's not really fair to you guys. Sorry.


Of course, the way to deal with a WIFOM situation in a game is obvious, if you've seen the movie.

Spend months building up a tolerance to the poison in the cup?
Also, <3
"I feel like we got extremely lucky that gac3 was mafia. I still don't see anything at all that incriminates him in the previous images. In fact, the more I look into this, the less sound I find your reasoning outright."

Simply put, your logic doesn't make an awful lot of sense, AV. How can the same 3/1 image spread that incriminates or defends kraken not implicate me in the same manner? We established that the spread was likely 3 mafia for 1 town. So many images of aquatic or vaguely agricultural themes should ease suspicion, not heighten it. Thus, I changed my vote off Kraken. It simply isn't consistent with the developing thoughts about the images.

It also isn't an accurate timeline. You mentioned that I changed my vote "when no one else was voting kraken." This is technically true only because no one else was voting at all.

With still little to go on re: Apogee, and a grand writeup on myself that I know to be inaccurate, you're looking more and more suspicious to me.

_____
OOOOOKAAAY I'm abandoning RP for now. It's late and I'm tired and I'm trying to catch um and omg.
_____



Question for Farmerbink.
(Regarding my read on active Apogee)

The short answer is his commentary is hard to argue with. In particular, his take that gac3 is wolf and Xihi is towny seems all-but prescient, and simultaneous with a vote on the dead mafia that never shook and may have been condemning (with an odd squint at the last few "non-vote" posts, at least).

In contrast, AV votes LetsGetKraken in an explicit bid to get a dueling wagon with a now confirmed mafia, and spends a lot of effort putting together some dubious "pairing" between gac3 and myself. ((not a vote, just explicitly wolf))


I mentally grouped the three animal images vs. the umbrella and steampunk. Any thoughts to that?

My only thoughts are that the wolfs don't have a lot of reason to submit a thematic trio. Perhaps especially given that we've explicitly stated that we expect the maximum number of images from them, "noise" seems most likely the play at hand.

I still don't have any useful feelings about the images as a whole.

Top-left seems vaguely cult-ish, or something like an altar.
Apogee's connection to the moon image has been hashed out.
The rat image also strikes me as an amusing little cross-breed between circus and worship, but I think I've got a grudge going for AV right now that's coloring my thoughts.


Apogee

Is wolf I'm pretty sure.
Is this just image play? I don't see the wolf lean otherwise, and as Snowblaze comments on the next post, he could easily have pushed a Kraken counter-wagon if he was wolf trying to protect gac3.

[bladescape]

Last time I played with wolf apogee he bussed pretty much since D1. Obviously this is anecdotal and I don't have a HUGE amount of experience with Apogee, but I remember thinking the Gac vote as a prime bus position.

[Farmerbink]

Oi. Well, at the end of that hour and a half I feel very much that you've "wifom"ed me. I'm at least as hopelessly confused as I was before.

-I have a moderate town read on Bladescape, largely because I've been swayed by the arguments made in his favor.
-I have a moderate town read on Apogee because of the arguments he made on his own behalf, and the way gac3/Xihi went down (though the degree of accuracy still smells of actual foreknowledge). (In addition, I'm grumpy over AV's read, so that may color Apogee town for me rn)
-I have a minor wolf read on AltarVecna, I think because I'm grumpy over his pairing of me with gac3. I don't know how much I trust my own read there.

And I've got basically nothing everywhere else, so vote tally time! (now with improved who-voted-in-what-order technology!)

3SecondCultist: Snowblaze (1), 3SecondCltist (5-self)
Apogee1: Bladescape (2), AltarVecna (3)
Bladescape: Apogee1 (4),
AltarVecna: FarmerBink (6),

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I'm not even really upset that 3Sec threw shade at me, though it makes me want to throw shade back...

- - - Updated - - -

Fine. Given that I don't want to appear to be pairing with really anyone, and I'm still salty, AltarVecna

[bladescape]

Also purely from threadstate we live in either:

1. Apogee is mafia
2. AV or Snowblaze have snowed me.

Because I hold that Kraken is just town. I hold Farmerbink is on my townish lean as well, and FF needs a partner. (I'm ignoring 3SC for now)

[Farmerbink]

Also purely from threadstate we live in either:

1. Apogee is mafia
2. AV or Snowblaze have snowed me.

Because I hold that Kraken is just town. I hold Farmerbink is on my townish lean as well, and FF needs a partner. (I'm ignoring 3SC for now)

I generally find #2 more believable. I probably shouldn't trust Snowblaze, just on principle, and I probably should be less distrustful of AV, and yet.... :smallfrown:

[bladescape]

If that pocket image IS for me because Bink is wolf and I'm pocketed then I must say it is very apt.

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I generally find #2 more believable. I probably shouldn't trust Snowblaze, just on principle, and I probably should be less distrustful of AV, and yet.... :smallfrown:

to be fair I had a strongish scumlean on Snow, until she went in on Gac.

Is it possible Snow hard-bussed a partner to get me to reverse my read?

Sure. She's done it before.

[Farmerbink]

If that pocket image IS for me because Bink is wolf and I'm pocketed then I must say it is very apt.

- - - Updated - - -



to be fair I had a strongish scumlean on Snow, until she went in on Gac.

Is it possible Snow hard-bussed a partner to get me to reverse my read?

Sure. She's done it before.

I mean, I'd love to take credit. It would imply that I have some idea what's going on, and I'm not just along for the crazy ride.

Oh, right. Yeah, Snow is probably good. That early bid on gac3 would be weird.

There's so many moving parts right now. /headache

[bladescape]

I mean, I'd love to take credit. It would imply that I have some idea what's going on, and I'm not just along for the crazy ride.

Oh, right. Yeah, Snow is probably good. That early bid on gac3 would be weird.

There's so many moving parts right now. /headache

Welcome to mafia, where anyone could do anything and everyone is guessing.

[Apogee1]

Last time I played with wolf apogee he bussed pretty much since D1. Obviously this is anecdotal and I don't have a HUGE amount of experience with Apogee, but I remember thinking the Gac vote as a prime bus position.

Okay wait now this is just a lie lmao.

I double checked and d1 I had 2/11 people on my wolf list who were fellow wolves, 1 of who "I realized I was wrong on" overnight because I'd forgotten they were on my team earlier in the day

And d2 of the 16 players I tried to get killed, one was an outed wolf, one was the lost wolf I had no idea was on my team, two were actual distances (not busses, only one of those I actually wanted dead) and the other 12 were villagers so

Take this with a grain of salt cause like, you can tell from the numbers I'm throwing around here the games were rather different buttttt yeah blade is just spewing what he thinks he needs to say to get me killed.

[bladescape]

Okay wait now this is just a lie lmao.

I double checked and d1 I had 2/11 people on my wolf list who were fellow wolves, 1 of who "I realized I was wrong on" overnight because I'd forgotten they were on my team earlier in the day

And d2 of the 16 players I tried to get killed, one was an outed wolf, one was the lost wolf I had no idea was on my team, two were actual distances (not busses, only one of those I actually wanted dead) and the other 12 were villagers so

Take this with a grain of salt cause like, you can tell from the numbers I'm throwing around here the games were rather different buttttt yeah blade is just spewing what he thinks he needs to say to get me killed.

Uh.

I'm not gonna lie, I wasn't even thinking about Anni.

Mostly because that game just assumes you're gonna bus anyway and has too many players to think clearly about.

Also I checked back and Apogee was bussed not bussing so I'm wrong there too.

Have to think about this.

- - - Updated - - -

To clarify the game I was thinking of was Afterlife, when Xi and I won after Apogee was bussed D1.

[Snowblaze]

Have a couple of hours before disappearing,
so...


Yeah, nope. I’ve had a very trying weekend of being accused of being a liar IRL, and I have about lost my patience with it. Nothing to do with the game, but I would rather die and just be a ghost at this point, thanks.

Made a mistake going for Kraken from the start, that was stupid. It let gac slip in and throw support for me. For what it’s worth, Apogee and Bink are almost certainly the wolves. AV nailed it.

3SecondCultist. Just kill me and get it over with.

virtual hugs

I'd recommend asking for a replacement over just letting yourself die, if Caoimhin can find anyone.

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I'm not overly convinced by Apogee's argument for wolf!bladescape. The association is pretty clear even without knowing your MU avatar (which ftr I vaguely half-remember from reading Champs last year) and AV is right in that it would be a pretty big coincidence for wolves to get the moon image straight after.

(Kraken, since you've played Mysterium before: how common are images featuring the moon?)

Plus I think there are some pretty good arguments for town!bladescape. I've made a few of them myself and I think I know what AV is talking about with their point two.

(Shut up, tinfoil voice.)

[bladescape]

Good midafternoon.

I'll take the bait -- 3SecondCultist.

This unpairs 3SC and Apogee.

(Yes I'm starting to try to find unpairings.

[Snowblaze]

Why Xi and why are AV/Snow/Myself all alive still.

I don't believe that a wolf team with Gac on it would be unaware of the stopping power that Snow/Me/AV represent in a game if we're all town.

Is this wifom play?

I had Xihirli as second on my "most likely nightkills" list after myself, so I don't think it's that weird. No offence, but neither you nor AV had done that much solvy stuff up until D3 and you did both vote the counterwagon to the flipped wolf.

(Xihirli because she's consensus town, voted a wolf and is definitely a potential threat.)

Also we don't know that gac discussed nightkill options with wolfchat before dying. Which if they didn't could imply someone who hasn't played here enough to know how scary you/AV can be... which quite neatly fits the current POE. (Okay, maybe not Apogee to the same extent as 3SC and Farmerbink, but.)

And yes, I know there is the "one of you/AV is a wolf" world. If it's you I'm pretty thoroughly pocketed rn, and if it's AV... I have to actually try and read AV.

[bladescape]

Votes? Did they cast multiple at that point?

I don't really see the self voting as inherently wolfy. My internal meta usually says it's a good sign. Though that's also usually with some of the players I know better.

- - - Updated - - -

Day feels like it went so fast.

I want to say this suggests 3SC's slot is town.

[Snowblaze]

Farmerbink's reaction to pressure is giving me gut pings. I don't think he did similar last game. Will check that.

[bladescape]

AV who is your mason partner.

- - - Updated - - -


Well not really? Not saying the people can't be wolves but four people voted that wagon and there was only one competing wagon. Since we know said competing wagon was a townie, I don't see any reason to assume this wagon was wolf motivated or anything. People on it could be wolves but I don't think the suddenness of the wagon or the votes themselves are wolf indicative.

Oh, yeah, 3SC is not a wolf.

- - - Updated - - -


Ah! That makes sense.

- - - Updated - - -

Okay. I need some big brains. Part of me is like "what if it's hint towards our names" and then the best I got was water for Kracken? If that's a farm house in the sand maybe farmer? Though that wouldn't help for people like me? How could a picture hint towards my name when it's just my initials? So maybe they relate to posts we've made? I'll try to look and see if that holds up.

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I'll probably check that later since I start work in a couple minutes.

Implicating Kraken and Farmer, good look for both.

- - - Updated - - -


AvatarVecna
flat_footed
bladescape
Xihirli
FarmerBink
3SecondCultist
Apogee1
gac3
Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze

Interesting that there are only 4 pictures. If I was sending messages, I would try to point at one player in particular with however many messages made sense. My initial reads line up pretty well with gac3, Farmer and Kraken are the two that spring to mind.

FarmerBink

This gets a solid Hmmmmmmmmmmm from me.

[Snowblaze]

Farmerbink, you mentioned AV's timeline was inaccurate because no-one else was voting as of your switch from Kraken to Apogee. However:



Farmerbink 2: flat_footed, Snowblaze
Snowblaze 1: bladescape
Apogee1 1: gac3
flat_footed 1: Let'sGetKraken
Posted without voting: AvatarVecna
No posts: Farmerbink, Xihirli, 3SecondCultist, Apogee1

I made this a few posts before said switch. It clearly shows people are voting.

[bladescape]

Since your Kraken read is "nearly wolfy... But new so maybe not" it might be worth mentioning again, if any of the clues are suppose to hint towards names, Kraken is both the most obvious person to point out and matches multiple pictures if you assume "general water theme". So... Probably worth FOS due to that, at least as much as farmerbrink does for the fields.

Hm, this almost reads as appealing to Snow.

- - - Updated - - -

Farmerbink and FF probably do not exist in the same wolf team.

[Snowblaze]

Actually on rereading AV's analysis I'm kind of talking myself into a Farmerbink wolfread. It fits with how gac played the Kraken/Farmerbink thing. Going to reread D2 myself to check.

[bladescape]

I like how Snow is all "Kraken looks a little wolfy. They would look really wolfy if they weren't new" but then I add that the cards could add up to that also and suddenly that's sketchy.

Okay this might be enough to get me to put away my Snow tinfoil.

- - - Updated - - -

Adventure time.

Farmerbink

[Snowblaze]

(OOC stuff snipped)
Oh, he was mafia!? That's convenient. Somewhat lessens my likelihood of a premature demise. Neat."
Turning to the white-haired figure, he shrugs. "I thought it was plain, I've no idea what's going on. I'm hopeful another set of images will help me... well, make sense of something." He starts visibly when the images appear.

After a few moments of scrutiny, he frowns. "... or not."
(Snipped again)
"I feel like we got extremely lucky that gac3 was mafia. I still don't see anything at all that incriminates him in the previous images. In fact, the more I look into this, the less sound I find your reasoning outright."

Simply put, your logic doesn't make an awful lot of sense, AV. How can the same 3/1 image spread that incriminates or defends kraken not implicate me in the same manner? We established that the spread was likely 3 mafia for 1 town. So many images of aquatic or vaguely agricultural themes should ease suspicion, not heighten it. Thus, I changed my vote off Kraken. It simply isn't consistent with the developing thoughts about the images.

It also isn't an accurate timeline. You mentioned that I changed my vote "when no one else was voting kraken." This is technically true only because no one else was voting at all.

With still little to go on re: Apogee, and a grand writeup on myself that I know to be inaccurate, you're looking more and more suspicious to me.

_____
OOOOOKAAAY I'm abandoning RP for now. It's late and I'm tired and I'm trying to catch um and omg.
_____

(Regarding my read on active Apogee)

The short answer is his commentary is hard to argue with. In particular, his take that gac3 is wolf and Xihi is towny seems all-but prescient, and simultaneous with a vote on the dead mafia that never shook and may have been condemning (with an odd squint at the last few "non-vote" posts, at least).

In contrast, AV votes LetsGetKraken in an explicit bid to get a dueling wagon with a now confirmed mafia, and spends a lot of effort putting together some dubious "pairing" between gac3 and myself. ((not a vote, just explicitly wolf))

My only thoughts are that the wolfs don't have a lot of reason to submit a thematic trio. Perhaps especially given that we've explicitly stated that we expect the maximum number of images from them, "noise" seems most likely the play at hand.

I still don't have any useful feelings about the images as a whole.

Top-left seems vaguely cult-ish, or something like an altar.
Apogee's connection to the moon image has been hashed out.
The rat image also strikes me as an amusing little cross-breed between circus and worship, but I think I've got a grudge going for AV right now that's coloring my thoughts.


Is this just image play? I don't see the wolf lean otherwise, and as Snowblaze comments on the next post, he could easily have pushed a Kraken counter-wagon if he was wolf trying to protect gac3.

Speaking as part of the gac wagon: no, we did not get lucky. The images didn't particularly point to them, but who needs visions from beyond when you have good old-fashioned analysis?

And... I don't really get the next part. I can understand the reasoning for not wanting to vote Kraken (I think; should check context) but how does that relate to whether or not the images pointed to gac?

Also the inaccurate timeline thing is itself inaccurate, as I pointed out earlier.

Also also: being right is not necessarily towny. Being wrong is not necessarily wolfy. I don't think Apogee should be town purely for being right on gac and Xihirli, and wanting competing wagons isn't wolfy when gac was clearly screwed at that point so AV had no chance of actually saving them.

- - - Updated - - -

blink

I was just about to ask you why you townread Farmerbink, so...

Eh. I guess I'll join the adventure since my vote isn't doing much on 3SC. Farmerbink.

- - - Updated - - -

Though if people think the case is invalid/don't agree with AV's or my logic, please say so. I don't want this to become "AV, Snow and blade all said this and they're good at this game so they must be right" because then if we're wrong we're no better off than we were.

[bladescape]

Though if people think the case is invalid/don't agree with AV's or my logic, please say so. I don't want this to become "AV, Snow and blade all said this and they're good at this game so they must be right" because then if we're wrong we're no better off than we were.

This.

Town is only as strong as the sum of its parts.

[Snowblaze]

Finally, several hours later, the man shambles in. Somewhat better-sheveled, for having slept, he nonetheless is actively rubbing the overnight crust from the creases of his eyes. "Hells, somebody else died?" he groans, looking down thoughtfully at the sheet-covered form. "Well that's no good." He frowns deeply before stepping around him with a subtle, respectful gesture of farewell.

"Rogan, was it? I suppose that doesn't tell us overmuch. Obviously the killers were out and about last night, but we already suspected as much." He looks around the room slowly, hesitating only briefly on a few faces before realizing that several are looking aggressively at him.

"Might sound a bit odd, but I generally trust Flat_Footed and Snowblaze. Simply put, I don't know anything, and that makes me a poor choice for the killers to want to off during the day. I'm not gonna contribute to that effort, for reasons I suspect are obvious, but I don't have much to contrib- oh, what's this?" His rambling thoughts finally lead the images into his field of view, and he eagerly approaches the table.

"This... these are portents from beyond?!" he gapes. Like an eager child with a new toy, he rifles through the images. Almost immediately, the excitement fades. "I... I don't know exactly what he expected, but this is all Greek to me," he mumbles.

"I see... vehicles.... Acrobats and tradesmen. Fishermen and oars, over fields and houses of sand- oh, and sandbags?? That's a theme. Horses and Camels, ropes throughout? Wheels in the sky, and wheels on the bridge...

Vehicles
Ropes
Sand
Animals
Water

These are the themes I see...." He ponders for some time, utterly unconcerned for the fingers literally and figuratively directed at him. "In the interest of putting it out there, I think the spirits from beyond want you dead, Let'sGetKraken"



Soooo I did a bad thing, and paid little attention to the timing on this game. I'm visiting family, and don't really expect to be paying hard attention throughout the day. In all seriousness, I won't feel horribly bad if I get offed. I hate to "waste" it, but I may be a waste to the town alive, anyway. And further, I have increasingly less positive input without knowing how these details work (3 images each? 3/1? 2/2? Each ghost gets one?) :-\ Edit: Those details hit ninja'ed, but don't really offer any clarity. *shrugs*

To that end, what "crunch" I've begun framing:

I like the five themes mentioned. Each one seems to well incorporate 2 (and decently well a 3rd) images. Without knowing more about the specific breakdown, I think that's as good a start as any. For reiteration: Vehicles Ropes, Sand, Animals, Water are all decent themes. We could get more specific, but I'm already having trouble connecting them to any names, except *maybe* water -> Kraken (and animal -> Kraken?). Vehicles and wheels have something of an inverse connotation with Flat_Footed, but the inverse connotations are nearly always accidental in actual Mysterium.

edit again:

That is *TOTALLY BELIEVABLE* I know as wolf I would want to make as much noise as possible, though that immediately creates a radically new meta to try to track O_o.

Hrmph.

Given that new development, I'm going to vote Apogee in a simple effort to keep people from being silent wolves.

Apogee


narrows eyes

Farmerbink here: "Snow and flat are trustworthy for trying to get me killed"

Farmerbink in the present: "AV is suspicious for trying to get me killed".

Explain.

(Need to go back and see quoted thing to get context for the vote switch.)

- - - Updated - - -

Okay, logic for the Kraken -> Apogee vote switch makes sense, surface-level at least.

- - - Updated - - -

Right, probably won't be back until after my disappearance now. I'll try and check in sometime this evening to make a final decision on who I want dead.

aorn it's "one of Apogee/3SC/Farmerbink with a slight preference for the latter pending his responses to my questions/case-ish-thing".

If I don't check in, it's because I don't have a reliable internet signal in which case sorry, I hope getting gac killed is sufficient contribution to make up for it and good luck finding the remaining wolves.

[Let'sGetKraken]

There is so much analysis going on right now and everyone is making some pretty compelling arguments. I have absolutely no idea what is conjecture at this point - there are at least three different narratives and they're all certainly prolific if nothing else.

I don't think there are that many moon cards - definitely not enough to send multiple per round unless deadtown/wolves were really lucky. I am actively avoiding checking the deck that I own because that seems way too much like metagaming.

The only person I think is hard cleared for town at this point is Snowblaze, since starting and perpetuating a bus on another wolf when there is zero heat on either of them seems like such a wildly terrible play with comparatively little upside so early. Even by WIFOM standards (amazing reference, btw) that seems terrible.

So I'm voting FarmerBink, Snow was right last time.

Edit: most people seem to be doing so, but I also think we should remove Cultist from the discussion here for IRL purposes. Once they drop we can discuss their role, or once they're replaced we can maybe analyze their voting, but for now in respect for the stuff IRL I think we should put a pause on that.

[Farmerbink]

Speaking as part of the gac wagon: no, we did not get lucky. The images didn't particularly point to them, but who needs visions from beyond when you have good old-fashioned analysis?

I suppose that's fair. I've missed/misunderstood the analysis entirely, so I guess well played on that front. I'm still largely clueless, and trying to use the images because theoretically that's the info I've got.

Regarding the inaccurate timeline, I initially misread posts and got the AM/PM confused. So it's not as precisely about time and more about the description:
Bink sees gac pushing Kraken and jumps on, but after reading through the thread, realizes there's not actually anybody else voting Kraken, whereas there's two people voting Bink. Bink initially votes somebody he thinks is a good counterwagon to himself, but then switches to the same wagon as gac (a wagon that gac has explicitly said he'll abandon once he has a reason to vote elsewhere), to provoke activity from Apogee1. Which means Bink also doesn't intend to keep his vote here, even though this otherwise looks like a vote to save himself?"

Basically all of this is inaccurate.

I voted Kraken because he was implicated by many of the images. I was the first to vote Kraken, making him at best a weird "jump on." There was no counter wagon on Kraken from which to switch to "the same wagon as gac (more in a sec). AV's take for "after reading through the thread" gives me a whopping 5 minutes to read, analyze, and change my vote. None of that happened. I had enough time to re-read the clarification post two above me and Xihi's take on "noise vs info" directly above (which was written while I typed my monstrosity- I didn't read Xihi before posting at all). That was enough for me to reconsider my initial "lots of images point to Kraken." And there was nowhere near enough time for me to even read the whole D2 thread, much less reassess and change my vote therein.

Further, at that time there were 4 total votes. One for Apogee (from gac), one for Snowblaze from Bladescape, and two for me. Unless 2 people (out of what, 12?) counts as a strong wagon, saying I joined gac on a wagon is at best a very strong choice of words. I was voting for the only other person that seemed fishy, mostly due to absence (and it was absolutely a bid to tie my votes). Further, as noted, both of us voted thinly. He changed his vote. I never did, and as of my most current reads, I'm pretty content the Apogee vote didn't do much.

Regarding now being suspicious of AV: he didn't "oh you guys are creepy" me. He put out like a 4-page dissertation on why me and gac are on a team. I know it's not true, and find his logic uncompelling. I can't really help it if you think his take makes sense, but I'm going to point out the things that don't make sense to me. And I'm probably just over-correcting on the nature of being "I know I'm not wolf, so you must be for accusing me!" I don't have anything really condemning on AV, but I don't like his take and I don't have anything really condemning on anyone, so lots of *shrugs* for me.

- - - Updated - - -


The only person I think is hard cleared for town at this point is Snowblaze, since starting and perpetuating a bus on another wolf when there is zero heat on either of them seems like such a wildly terrible play with comparatively little upside so early. Even by WIFOM standards (amazing reference, btw) that seems terrible.

I'm with you there. It looks pretty bad for me, but my kid has a gymnastics lesson in 30, so I'm probably just gonna die now. :smalleek:

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Sorry, wasn't on at all yesterday but I'm seeing 3SecondCultist was looking to drop and Ave offered to be a replacement. I gotta finish catching up but I'll probably make that official in a bit.

[Farmerbink]

In the interest of defending myself, this portion of AV's timeline is 100% inaccurate. The referenced post :


Like seriously, the post flow is "I agree with this as I think more about it. In fact, I was actually thinking about this hours ago, when I changed my vote from Kraken to Apogee". Additionally, I think this post in particular is a wolf play, but it only makes sense in the context of the next post:

This is made in reference to the following post (#127, which he assesses as "wolf play"):

I'm agreeing more here as I think about it. The decision of how many images to send seems very obvious- at least in this case. Wolves: send all the images! Town: I'm not sure what's helpful, but this one might be?

It's part of why I changed my vote away from Kraken. I hate to see Apogee town lynched for being busy today, but lsat game like 2 of the wolves had super low posts (and then there was Snowblaze XD)

The post flow is 12 hours after the edits for my previous post, in which I agreed with Xihi's point and changed my vote accordingly. In the edited post #106, I addressed those issues. There is no basis at all for him to rag me for thinking about it hours ago, when I posted about it hours ago.

His continuation:

At this point, Apogee's "only a little bit of time" has lasted a bit over an hour. He's been reading through the thread, and he can tell that gac is screwed. Apogee saw that the wagons were gac 3/Kraken 2, and could've voted Kraken to tie things up. But at some point in that hour (when gac, Bink, and Apogee were all online), Apogee told them how he was gonna vote. He laid out a case for why gac was already caught based on scumslips. He told gac that if Apogee votes Kraken, all it's gonna do is mean that when gac swings, AV/blade/Snow/Xi will all be after Apogee's butt next - and same for Bink if Bink switches too. If Apogee and Bink both switch to put kraken in the lead, it potentially gets all three caught in short order if more people join the gac wagon. gac accepts his fate, Bink makes a post clarifying why he's not gonna join the kraken wagon, and then Apogee votes gac into a solid lead, and then gac does his little "are you sure I can't convince you" post. Those are three posts in a row, 127-129, and it's all wolf theatre. It's Apogee trying to save himself and Bink from the sinking ship of SS Gac3.Apogee1

So this part just makes no sense. In what world does Wolf!Apogee choose to not tie votes? Unless that play outs every wolf, there is still ample time to just wolf the 4 listed "supposedly confirmed town" in the ensuing nights. Like, AV has this grand double-agent thing lined up in which the only people who know conclusively what's going on all choose to off one of their own?

Also, I'm still voting Apogee at this point, because his most compelling post of self-defense is the #128 that I didn't see until the next day. At that time, it's clear gac is hosed, and the next highest wagon is 2? As I said then, my vote didn't matter, so I didn't bother to move it.

[AvatarVecna]

A short-haired, sweat drenched man with unkempt clothes and a haggard stare literally stumbles through the door. "Gods alive, it's worse than the armpit of satan out there! Now which one of you bastards cut the wiring to my air-conditioner?!" He stares around angrily, suspiciously at the gathered mediums. "Spent three days getting parts for that thrice-d@mned box, and it's been over 100 every day!" He grumbles, irritable.

Slumping into a chair, a small puddle immediately begins to form where the sweat running down his back drips of the hem of his shirt. "You. I blame you. Yeah, I know you probably didn't do it, but I'm in no mood to think too seriously, and I don't like your shirt," Book Wombat

I don't want to get known as the guy who always vote for the first guy to vote, so I'm voting for the second guy to vote! Neat, huh?! Also, he killed me last game after I explicitly warned him, and I'm not salty at all about it.

(In all seriousness, I'm not, but it amuses me to complain in jest)

Null.


He looks up suddenly. "I did? I mean, I've not slept a lot since then, and what sleep I got was muddled and worthless. I believe you, but I don't remember. All jokes aside, you're a dangerous potential wolf, but you're a valuable potential town, too. I got nothing."


The sweaty man snorts. "Can confirm," he grumbles, with a raised index finger.


:|

-_-

:|

That's hilarious, and totally true.


Listening intently, he begins to chuckles quietly. "Oh, I absolutely do not trust 3Sec," the haunted psychic mumbles. "He lives for this kind of thing! Whether he's killing us all or equally desperate for survival, he's more than mad enough to enjoy the trip either way!" :smallbiggrin:

Null.


"I see nothing. I know nothing. I'm going to sleep. Maybe it'll make more sense tomorrow."

The now only mostly-sweaty man prowls off into the dark mansion, ostensibly to find a suitable place to rest.

Null.


Finally, several hours later, the man shambles in. Somewhat better-sheveled, for having slept, he nonetheless is actively rubbing the overnight crust from the creases of his eyes. "Hells, somebody else died?" he groans, looking down thoughtfully at the sheet-covered form. "Well that's no good." He frowns deeply before stepping around him with a subtle, respectful gesture of farewell.

"Rogan, was it? I suppose that doesn't tell us overmuch. Obviously the killers were out and about last night, but we already suspected as much." He looks around the room slowly, hesitating only briefly on a few faces before realizing that several are looking aggressively at him.

"Might sound a bit odd, but I generally trust Flat_Footed and Snowblaze. Simply put, I don't know anything, and that makes me a poor choice for the killers to want to off during the day. I'm not gonna contribute to that effort, for reasons I suspect are obvious, but I don't have much to contrib- oh, what's this?" His rambling thoughts finally lead the images into his field of view, and he eagerly approaches the table.

"This... these are portents from beyond?!" he gapes. Like an eager child with a new toy, he rifles through the images. Almost immediately, the excitement fades. "I... I don't know exactly what he expected, but this is all Greek to me," he mumbles.

"I see... vehicles.... Acrobats and tradesmen. Fishermen and oars, over fields and houses of sand- oh, and sandbags?? That's a theme. Horses and Camels, ropes throughout? Wheels in the sky, and wheels on the bridge...

Vehicles
Ropes
Sand
Animals
Water

These are the themes I see...." He ponders for some time, utterly unconcerned for the fingers literally and figuratively directed at him. "In the interest of putting it out there, I think the spirits from beyond want you dead, Let'sGetKraken"



Soooo I did a bad thing, and paid little attention to the timing on this game. I'm visiting family, and don't really expect to be paying hard attention throughout the day. In all seriousness, I won't feel horribly bad if I get offed. I hate to "waste" it, but I may be a waste to the town alive, anyway. And further, I have increasingly less positive input without knowing how these details work (3 images each? 3/1? 2/2? Each ghost gets one?) :-\ Edit: Those details hit ninja'ed, but don't really offer any clarity. *shrugs*

To that end, what "crunch" I've begun framing:

I like the five themes mentioned. Each one seems to well incorporate 2 (and decently well a 3rd) images. Without knowing more about the specific breakdown, I think that's as good a start as any. For reiteration: Vehicles Ropes, Sand, Animals, Water are all decent themes. We could get more specific, but I'm already having trouble connecting them to any names, except *maybe* water -> Kraken (and animal -> Kraken?). Vehicles and wheels have something of an inverse connotation with Flat_Footed, but the inverse connotations are nearly always accidental in actual Mysterium.

edit again:

That is *TOTALLY BELIEVABLE* I know as wolf I would want to make as much noise as possible, though that immediately creates a radically new meta to try to track O_o.

Hrmph.

Given that new development, I'm going to vote Apogee in a simple effort to keep people from being silent wolves.

Apogee

95% of this post is Bink explaining why he's voting Kraken, but one line from Xihirli against doing so sends Bink's vote elsewhere. Admittedly, I was a bit wrong in my write-up, in that if town!Bink was convinced by what Xi said here, the later explanation for the vote move is legitimate. But it's hard to not look at it and think that Bink was trying to go for the easy counterwagon to his own wagon, only to realize Kraken wasn't really a wagon at all, gac was just making noise without voting. So he joins gac in poking Apogee until Apogee appears.

Separately, I didn't realize this when doing my write-up before, because that was purely focused on D2, but it's NAGL that Bink's first post with some real meat to dig into is on D2. His whole day 1 is nothing but roleplay and a typical early-D1 jokevote.


Just kind of confused over Apogee's continued silence. :smallconfused:

This is one of those posts that really baffled me. Apogee is not and was not a very active player.


Good midafternoon.

I'll take the bait -- 3SecondCultist.


I mean, I voted 3second more-or-less on the presumption he wanted something like what he's claimed regarding kraken to happen.

Although, I'm now swirling that he outed that plan shortly before kraken returned who in turn reacted ... how he would have predicted. It's too on the nose to be w/w in my experience, but something around that feels a bit performative.

Then again, maybe that's not a bad thing either.


I was, at the time of a vote, fishing for a reaction from 3SC based on the premise that he probably self voted to fish for reactions.

I am now questioning if that premise holds or rather what I think of it.

That's it. 3 posts, the most recent of which was a full two days before Bink made this post. Apogee had three posts in the first 49, and then fell off the face of the earth. And 3/49 posts is still under-average given the game size. This is Bink's second game to the best of my knowledge, and Apogee wasn't in the first one. Where is this expectation of activity coming from? Because I'm not seeing an easy explanation.

Or rather, I'm not seeing an easy explanation besides "they're both in wolf chat together, where Apogee is far more active".


I'm agreeing more here as I think about it. The decision of how many images to send seems very obvious- at least in this case. Wolves: send all the images! Town: I'm not sure what's helpful, but this one might be?

It's part of why I changed my vote away from Kraken. I hate to see Apogee town lynched for being busy today, but lsat game like 2 of the wolves had super low posts (and then there was Snowblaze XD)

Initially, I thought this was pure wolf theatre. At this point, though, it does appear that Bink might've thinking about this when he changed voted in the first place. I still think it's weird how Bink's vote happened to first go on a wagon with a lot of verbal support, only to like immediately switch to a wagon that actually had votes, so that Bink's own wagon was no longer the only one at two votes. The reasons given for the vote are sensible enough, but the way the votes are moving looks like pure self-preservation, and that's the core of wagonomics: looking past what people are saying, and looking at what they're doing.


"I only have one question to add," the tired man interjects.

"Hypothetically, let's assume gac3 is wolf. How on earth does our friendly spirit successfully supply images that point at him? What about his name could be tied to any of these images?."

"My vote means nothing at this rate, as I've no particularly confident wolf lean to even challenge that gac wagon with Kraken. No reason to move it."

I'm afraid we've run into a hard issue ((with the system)). Without some sort of public "role" assignment with imagery or symbolism, we're stuck trying to make pictures look like words names (which are often somewhat nonsensical in their own right)

I will fully admit it's possible that I read too much into this, because I was doing the gac ISO. But also, like...this is basically the one concrete thing gac did D2.


You say that, but I'm still struggling to understand what town knows and how it could translate into these pictures.

- - - Updated - - -

To clarify I meant what "dead town knows"

Throws doubt on the information dead townies know, even though it's clearly stated what they know. This is gac undermining the validity of the picture analysis.


Since your Kraken read is "nearly wolfy... But new so maybe not" it might be worth mentioning again, if any of the clues are suppose to hint towards names, Kraken is both the most obvious person to point out and matches multiple pictures if you assume "general water theme". So... Probably worth FOS due to that, at least as much as farmerbrink does for the fields.

gac simultaneously undermines it, while also trying to convince snow that if the pictures are meaningful, then clearly Kraken is as suspicious as bink is, if not more so! That could be gac shielding buddy!Bink, or could be gac shielding town!Bink to make Bink look like a buddy, but given the rest of gac's ISO, it doesn't look like he was playing that tricky of a wolf game to me.


Take it whichever way you want. That said I'm really torn on this whole name connection thing. I'm currently banking on Xi to put together any real clues from the visions after that last post. The best I have is "similar to names" but that can't be the only basis because some of us have bad names for that to be the premise of a system. I'm going to probably mostly stick to trying to solve this the old school way.

Shades the visions.


Wait... The one with the ship doesn't actually have water... That night poke a hole in my half cocked Kraken theory... Though ship is still water so good enough for now.

Has decided that shading the visions is the better route to keeping Bink from getting lynched, even if it means he doesn't have a good counter-suggestion for who to lynch.


This is also fair. I'm more fond of the idea "use visions to back up existing suspicions" rather than basing things off of them.

Also... if the players themselves choose how many visions to send, I'm starting to think it's likely that 3 of the visions were from wolves. Because why would wolves ever not send the maximum?

gac latches onto Xihirli's idea about who is likely to send more images. Anything to shade the visions.


I'm afraid we've run into a hard issue ((with the system)). Without some sort of public "role" assignment with imagery or symbolism, we're stuck trying to make pictures look like words names (which are often somewhat nonsensical in their own right)

FarmerBink's comment lines up perfectly with some of gac's comments. And like...

...let's toss out everything I think about Bink and Apogee. Just, right in the dumpster. gac spent the entirety of D2 trying to convince people not to choose wagons based on the visions. Scum!gac was not doing this because he was afraid village might mislynch somebody. Scum!gac saw that the visions clearly implicated a scumbuddy, and moved to shade the visions to minimize the chance of said scumbuddy getting caught. gac's argument to lynch Kraken was basically purely picture based, and he abandoned his own 'suspect' in favor of taking a dump on the idea that deadchat could possibly help at all. It took a correction from Cao for him to stop pretending that dead chat didn't know who the wolves are.

Who exactly is all of this shade protecting? Where is the scumbuddy gac died to protect? Because there's only two people heavily implicated by that first set of images: Kraken, and Bink. gac was pushing kraken's wagon, and was the primary person doing so, so that's probably not the scumbuddy. Meanwhile, gac losing his mind over people trusting the visions happened after Bink got two votes.

If Bink is not the beneficiary of gac's performance, then who is?

Oh boy, time for a really meaty Bink post. I'm gonna have to break this one down:


I want to formally apologize to you guys. I have not held up my end of the bargain on this game. As much as I've ragged on Apogee for inaction, I've done the same or worse. Sorry.

I also expect to be markedly more active now that I'm not out of town juggling AC repair for my parent's while they're out of town, and also dealing with sick kids and blah blah blah. I'm back home now, and anticipate a substantially more "normal" next several weeks. For what it's worth.

NOW! To the meat:

*checks Bink's location*

Yeah, AC repairs check out. I, too, live in Hell.


Simply put, your logic doesn't make an awful lot of sense, AV. How can the same 3/1 image spread that incriminates or defends kraken not implicate me in the same manner? We established that the spread was likely 3 mafia for 1 town. So many images of aquatic or vaguely agricultural themes should ease suspicion, not heighten it. Thus, I changed my vote off Kraken. It simply isn't consistent with the developing thoughts about the images.

1) I can fully admit that you did seem to be thinking things along these lines when you initially changed your vote, that's a mistake on my part. I though the vote change was basically unexplainable for a townie, but there's a clear explanation.

2) The first set of images contains two and a half images that kind of imply water (a sand house being blown away with the sky above representing water, a carriage going over a bridge which is over a river, and a sailing ship). Meanwhile, it contains one image that implies fields (the ground beneath the sand house could be construed as sand or fields of grain). The image of a hot air balloon with no ground in sight does not imply Farmer. The image of a barren desert does not imply Farmer. The river image has plants, but they are pretty obviously wild grass, not tilled fields, or even a garden of any kind; they do not imply Farmer. There is one (1) image in the first set that points to you, so the 3/1 image theory casts suspicion on you far more than on Kraken.


It also isn't an accurate timeline. You mentioned that I changed my vote "when no one else was voting kraken." This is technically true only because no one else was voting at all.

This is just a straight up lie. "technically true only because no one else was voting at all" half the living players were voting.


Apogee


FarmerBink


flat_footed


Snowblaze


Farmerbink

We started with 12 players. One died D1. One died N1. 10 were still alive. 5 of the 10 living players voted before you did. Fully half the living players voting before you did. The wagons were as follows:

Apogee1 (1): gac3
FarmerBink (2): flat_footed, Snowblaze
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape

That is the situation where you voted. If I look at the words coming out of your mouth, there is a plausibly-townie explanation for your vote. But I cannot stress enough that, if one just looks at how the votes are moving (which is normally a good way to catch wolves - don't listen to what people say, just look at how they act), it really really looks like you voted on Kraken initially because you thought they were an easy mislynch, only to notice 1) you yourself were the lead wagon, and 2) nobody else was voting Kraken the way you expected based on thread-discussion. So you found any reason to switch off Kraken, and switched to Apogee to give yourself some breathing room.


The short answer is his commentary is hard to argue with. In particular, his take that gac3 is wolf and Xihi is towny seems all-but prescient, and simultaneous with a vote on the dead mafia that never shook and may have been condemning (with an odd squint at the last few "non-vote" posts, at least).

1) bladescape's first post D2 was pushing back hard against Xihirli suspicion. Apogee doesn't get credit for refusing to disagree with bladescape.

2) After looking through gac's ISO at all the shade he was casting on the dead townies, and all the "no real arguments" he was putting forth to lynch anybody except Kraken (which contradicted the shade he was casting), it's not really surprising that more than half the living players ended up voting gac3. Even if Apogee is town, he does not get credit for seeing something that basically everybody else saw.

3) That answer has nothing to do with my question.


In contrast, AV votes LetsGetKraken in an explicit bid to get a dueling wagon with a now confirmed mafia, and spends a lot of effort putting together some dubious "pairing" between gac3 and myself. ((not a vote, just explicitly wolf))

There are potentially-townie reasons for getting dueling wagons even when a wolf is clearly caught. The primary reason, though, is that if you make it look like a wolf has a viable counterwagon, other wolves might jump in to save them, thus implicating themselves. Bladescape did this, I tried to assist in that, but nobody took the bait. I saw a caught wolf winning the lynch 6 votes to 1, and tried to do my part to catch a second wolf in the same trap by casting my vote onto the counterwagon. If 3SC had stayed, we might've gotten someone else jumping ship, and blade and I would be tearing that person apart today. More importantly, blade did this before I did, so if anybody's got reasons to be skeptical of my reasons to vote there, it'd be blade, because blade was baiting that exact kind of thing. But where's the blade shade on me? Surely you're not seeing a truth that blade is missing, right? blade's consistently been one of the only people who can legit catch me wolfing.

It's because there's nothing to catch. I was falling behind on forum games for about a solid week for IRL reasons, and when I finally got around to putting in effort for this one, I immediately see what looks to me to be two really obvious wolves.

A bit more to the point: this post just reads like OMGUS (literally "Oh My God You Suck"). "You suspect me? Well I know you're wrong, so clearly the actually suspicious person here is you". It's the kind of accusation you see often from wolves, who want to say that accusations against them are wrong, but don't have a real solid argument for why the other person is suspicious, so they just fake outrage at being accused in the first place.

Two things for FarmerBink.

You claim that you stopped voting for Kraken because of what Xihirli pointed out about pictures. Fair enough. You claim you switched to Apogee to provoke activity. Fair enough. But then Apogee showed up and voted gac. And later (today), you claim that Apogee made really good arguments.

So why didn't you move your vote off Apogee? It was only on him to provoke activity in the first place, and I would say that activity was well and truly provoked. You were certainly still around at that point, plenty of time til EoD. Why did you leave your vote on him?

I want to be clear on the timeline:


Good midafternoon.

I'll take the bait -- 3SecondCultist.


I mean, I voted 3second more-or-less on the presumption he wanted something like what he's claimed regarding kraken to happen.

Although, I'm now swirling that he outed that plan shortly before kraken returned who in turn reacted ... how he would have predicted. It's too on the nose to be w/w in my experience, but something around that feels a bit performative.

Then again, maybe that's not a bad thing either.


I was, at the time of a vote, fishing for a reaction from 3SC based on the premise that he probably self voted to fish for reactions.

I am now questioning if that premise holds or rather what I think of it.


Just kind of confused over Apogee's continued silence. :smallconfused:

This is all of Apogee's contributions to the thread. This is what Farmerbink saw and thought Apogee should be posting more. And when questioned on why he expected more activity:


The short answer is his commentary is hard to argue with. In particular, his take that gac3 is wolf and Xihi is towny seems all-but prescient, and simultaneous with a vote on the dead mafia that never shook and may have been condemning (with an odd squint at the last few "non-vote" posts, at least).

1) "his commentary is hard to argue with". Apogee had basically no commentary - the only thing that could be construed as such was his explanations for voting 3SC, and while they're not reasons to scumread Apogee, they're hardly reasons to townread him, or to expect lots of activity from him.

2) "his take that gac3 is wolf and Xihi is towny seems all-but prescient, and simultaneous with a vote on the dead mafia that never shook and may have been condemning". Apogee had not said either of those things by the time you made your "Apogee is awfully quiet" post. This has nothing to do with your expectation of Apogee's participation. This is you ascribing Apogee's later activity as the motive behind your questioning his lack of activity earlier in the thread. You cannot claim that stuff Apogee did in post 119 or later is the reason for your expectation of more Apogee activity in post 117.

[Farmerbink]

Thing 1: inactivity, primarily. When I saw the state at like 2:40 server time on D2, things were settled. The vote made no difference and changing it would have made no difference.

I'll look at the rest when/if I have time. :-\ :smalleek:

[AvatarVecna]

So this part just makes no sense. In what world does Wolf!Apogee choose to not tie votes? Unless that play outs every wolf, there is still ample time to just wolf the 4 listed "supposedly confirmed town" in the ensuing nights. Like, AV has this grand double-agent thing lined up in which the only people who know conclusively what's going on all choose to off one of their own?

It's because I know Apogee is more experienced than you are. Let me walk you through it:

1) Apogee is gone most of the day.

2) Apogee comes back and see gac making a clown of himself shading the dead townies, to the point that even the narrator was calling gac out about it.

3) Apogee sees that blade and AV (both players who know Apogee is relatively skilled) are in the game.

4) Apogee sees the argument Xihirli has made against basing reads purely on the images.

5) The current vote is gac 3/Kraken 2. If Apogee jumps on kraken's wagon, the tie rules indicate that gac would still get lynched, because he reached three votes first. So even if Apogee joins kraken's wagon, gac is only safe if somebody else also votes kraken, and nobody else votes gac.

At this point, in a world where Apogee is scum, he has to ask himself: how likely is it for Kraken to get more votes? How likely is it for gac to get more votes? And both of those questions feel like they have obvious answers. I cannot stress enough how awful gac's D2 looks. He got six votes out of ten by the time the day ended. And with Snowblaze, bladescape, and Xihirli all kinda vocally against the Kraken wagon at this point...who else would possibly jump on the Kraken wagon? Apogee sees the writing on the wall. He sees exactly what's gonna happen if he votes Kraken to try and save gac:

6a) Apogee votes Kraken, bladescape votes gac. The wagons look like this:

Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
Let'sGetKraken (3): 3SecondCultist, gac3, Apogee1
gac3 (4): Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, bladescape

7a) A third scumbuddy (let's say flat_footed) switches to Kraken. Wagons look like this:

Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
Let'sGetKraken (4): 3SecondCultist, gac3, Apogee1, flat_footed
gac3 (4): Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, bladescape, (AV?)

8a) gac reached 4 votes first, so gac gets lynched. gac flips scum, and now the last two people to join kraken's wagon (the two scumbuddies) are going to be under a lot of attention.

If Apogee votes gac, the only way to avoid every scumbuddy getting caught trying to save gac is hoping that either AV or Farmerbink switches to voting Kraken, and that the other one doesn't vote gac. If that happens, Kraken swings instead of gac, and no scumbuddies get caught. If literally anything else happens, every scumbuddy gets caught trying to save gac.

So here's what Apogee does instead.

6b) Apogee throws gac under the bus. And that's exactly what he did.


gac3

Sorry I got sidetracked with the new hearthstone expansion. Anyways, gac is doing the thing wolves do where they (general they) ponder mechanics in sort of broad ways bouncing between possibilities without linking to specific behaviors in the thread.

Contrast with say Xihirli who has the meander mech posts but gets to an actual point a lot better.

This was slightly abridged but I can talk about it more if people want.

Also thought snow's point was reasonable I guess.

"I'm sorry, but you brought this on yourself. I'm not going to get caught trying to bail out your sinking ship."

...

Additionally, while this is really the kind of thing you learn with experience, gac's response is like half the reason I suspect Apogee:


Are you sure I can't talk you into considering another wagon? Gac3 is doing that thing gac3 does when he isn't sure how to apply mechanics. And drew Snows attention for agreeing with them. To be fair I do the same thing. If someone agrees with me I'm usually like.. "this is suspicious... No one ever agrees with me"

This...this isn't really how a wolf reacts to criticism. "Are you sure I can't convince you to reconsider?" What a ****in load. This is not "scum!gac sees town!Apogee put another nail in his coffin and starts squirming trying to make any argument to save himself". This is, or at least really really looks to me like scum!gac trying to distance with Apogee, so that gac's death can at least give Apogee some townie points. This is gac reacting to a scumbuddy bussing him, after they discussed in wolf chat that this is the only way forward.

[Farmerbink]

This is one of those posts that really baffled me. Apogee is not and was not a very active player.
This is my second game of mafia in this setting. I hardly know specific players MOs.



That's it. 3 posts, the most recent of which was a full two days before Bink made this post. Apogee had three posts in the first 49, and then fell off the face of the earth. And 3/49 posts is still under-average given the game size. This is Bink's second game to the best of my knowledge, and Apogee wasn't in the first one. Where is this expectation of activity coming from? Because I'm not seeing an easy explanation.

Or rather, I'm not seeing an easy explanation besides "they're both in wolf chat together, where Apogee is far more active".
I mean, that's super condescending, frankly. If we're in wolf chat together, where he is super active, it would be the dumbest ass thing in the entire world to call him out for inactivity in the main thread. In addition, in my only other game one of the major themes was "being quiet is a good strat for wolves." At least, that was my takeaway.

You're absolutely high if you think Wolf!me is going to obviously, gratuitously, deliberately call out Wolf!Apogee for inactivity in the main thread. Just bananas off the wall insane.


Initially, I thought this was pure wolf theatre. At this point, though, it does appear that Bink might've thinking about this when he changed voted in the first place. I still think it's weird how Bink's vote happened to first go on a wagon with a lot of verbal support, only to like immediately switch to a wagon that actually had votes, so that Bink's own wagon was no longer the only one at two votes. The reasons given for the vote are sensible enough, but the way the votes are moving looks like pure self-preservation, and that's the core of wagonomics: looking past what people are saying, and looking at what they're doing.
Is it really that weird to pursue an apparently reasonable combination of self-preservation and voting for the current "he's not saying anything" guy? Felt like 2-for-1 to me. Still does.

FarmerBink's comment lines up perfectly with some of gac's comments. And like...


...let's toss out everything I think about Bink and Apogee. Just, right in the dumpster. gac spent the entirety of D2 trying to convince people not to choose wagons based on the visions. Scum!gac was not doing this because he was afraid village might mislynch somebody. Scum!gac saw that the visions clearly implicated a scumbuddy, and moved to shade the visions to minimize the chance of said scumbuddy getting caught. gac's argument to lynch Kraken was basically purely picture based, and he abandoned his own 'suspect' in favor of taking a dump on the idea that deadchat could possibly help at all. It took a correction from Cao for him to stop pretending that dead chat didn't know who the wolves are.

Who exactly is all of this shade protecting? Where is the scumbuddy gac died to protect? Because there's only two people heavily implicated by that first set of images: Kraken, and Bink. gac was pushing kraken's wagon, and was the primary person doing so, so that's probably not the scumbuddy. Meanwhile, gac losing his mind over people trusting the visions happened after Bink got two votes.

PLEEEEAASE tell me where I pushed a Kraken wagon? I voted him for all of 5 minutes, immediately jumped off because I realized the wagon was based on a likely-faulty misread of the cards and never threw any shade ever again.

Please, tell me more about how I'm pushing a Kraken wagon. You're one of the established, regular players, and this is the analysis?

-wait, I missed an entire word there. That non-capital G had me shook.

Regardless, literally the same logic that makes Kraken a poor choice based on images applies to me as well. Unless you've got some background knowledge on the two of us that you've deliberately chosen to not share, I have a really hard time taking your hard shade on me as justifiable.


A bit more to the point: this post just reads like OMGUS (literally "Oh My God You Suck"). "You suspect me? Well I know you're wrong, so clearly the actually suspicious person here is you". It's the kind of accusation you see often from wolves, who want to say that accusations against them are wrong, but don't have a real solid argument for why the other person is suspicious, so they just fake outrage at being accused in the first place.

Dude, it doesn't "read like OMGUS," I literally put it out there. I'm 99% sure my suspicion of you is heavily covered by the effort I'm spending defending myself. I've said as much. Like 4 times. Whether your take is that it's wolfy or not strikes me as irrelevant at this point.

I answered Thing 1 above.


I want to be clear on the timeline:This is all of Apogee's contributions to the thread. This is what Farmerbink saw and thought Apogee should be posting more. And when questioned on why he expected more activity:

1) "his commentary is hard to argue with". Apogee had basically no commentary - the only thing that could be construed as such was his explanations for voting 3SC, and while they're not reasons to scumread Apogee, they're hardly reasons to townread him, or to expect lots of activity from him.

2) "his take that gac3 is wolf and Xihi is towny seems all-but prescient, and simultaneous with a vote on the dead mafia that never shook and may have been condemning". Apogee had not said either of those things by the time you made your "Apogee is awfully quiet" post. This has nothing to do with your expectation of Apogee's participation. This is you ascribing Apogee's later activity as the motive behind your questioning his lack of activity earlier in the thread. You cannot claim that stuff Apogee did in post 119 or later is the reason for your expectation of more Apogee activity in post 117.

Dude. There's like 50 hours between your first paragraph and second (which is numbered '1'). I was prodding him early Day 2 because he had posted like 3 times by then. I didn't prod after that, because he posted quite a bit, including a damning indictment of a now-confirmed wolf. I didn't change my vote after that because it would have been entirely for show to do so.

1) The "his commentary is hard to argue with" is post 180. The commentary referenced is posts 121, 123, 128.

2) What are you even trying to say? Why would I expect more activity when he's being active? Obviously, Apogee hadn't said those things when I prodded him for not saying anything. This is me answering Snowblaze's repeated question that I overlooked the first time in real time, with real time perspectives. I didn't "expect more activity." I was prodding the (mostly) inactive.


This...this isn't really how a wolf reacts to criticism. "Are you sure I can't convince you to reconsider?" What a ****in load. This is not "scum!gac sees town!Apogee put another nail in his coffin and starts squirming trying to make any argument to save himself". This is, or at least really really looks to me like scum!gac trying to distance with Apogee, so that gac's death can at least give Apogee some townie points. This is gac reacting to a scumbuddy bussing him, after they discussed in wolf chat that this is the only way forward.

So your assessment is that this is 100% wolf play. I guess that makes some plausible sense, but it still seems odd at best. Apogee was the 4th vote on gac3, when there was a wagon of 2 he could have tied. That feels like a really strong push from Wolf!Apogee to send a scumbuddy into no man's land when there still seems to be a reasonable play elsewhere. It turned into gac3 is definitely dead, in part because of that vote.

- - - Updated - - -

I think I see what you mean by most of that, actually. I'm not sure I agree precisely, but I see the logic at least. Honestly, I was taken a bit by surprise at how fast a 2-vote lead of me turned into a massive gac wagon. I still don't see what everyone else saw that condemned him, but I guess it worked.

- - - Updated - - -


old votes

Ah yes, my favorite update. The one where I die. :smalleek:

Back to the present, having long-since hashed out what already happened, the new current vote tally:

3SecondCultist: Snowblaze (1), 3SecondCltist (5-self)
Apogee1: Bladescape (2), AltarVecna (3)
Bladescape: Apogee1 (4),
AltarVecna: FarmerBink (6),
FarmerBink: Bladescape (7), Snowblaze (8), LetsGetKraken (9)

This is 7 of... 8? current votes? With almost nothing at all from Flat_Footed in like 2 days.

The good news is that town won't lose much with me. I have basically no useful hunches. I still don't want to just shuffle the mortal coil with nothing to come of it. I follow much of your logic, AV, but I don't see any reason that the Apogee vote on gac isn't equally as plausible for town.

The most suspicious part of it to me is just how accurate he was with regard to gac3/Xihi. And that's not easy to fabricate, but it sure is easy for the wolves to capitalize on.

That leaves me feeling generally towny on Snowblaze, and a whole lot of ????? for everyone else. Let's assume your read is accurate (except that I'm town, so someone else has to be the scum buddy (obviously :smallwink:)). I guess that leaves Flat_Footed?

- - - Updated - - -

That's not a useful thing to leave in bold letters, so:

3SecondCultist: Snowblaze (1), 3SecondCltist (5-self)
Apogee1: Bladescape (2), AltarVecna (3)
Bladescape: Apogee1 (4),
AltarVecna: FarmerBink (6),
FarmerBink: Bladescape (7), Snowblaze (8), LetsGetKraken (9)
Flat_Footed: FarmerBink (10)

[AvatarVecna]

This is my second game of mafia in this setting. I hardly know specific players MOs.

That's kind of my ****ing point. You don't know anything yet. Apogee has not, a single time, demonstrated the activity you seemed to expect from him. You lack the experience to know whether you should expect more activity from him. You should also know that, while being quiet is a good way for wolves to hide, part of the reason it's a good way for wolves to hide is that some townies are just quiet and don't participate as much. It's not a guarantee of wolfiness to be quiet.


I mean, that's super condescending, frankly. If we're in wolf chat together, where he is super active, it would be the dumbest ass thing in the entire world to call him out for inactivity in the main thread. In addition, in my only other game one of the major themes was "being quiet is a good strat for wolves." At least, that was my takeaway.

You're absolutely high if you think Wolf!me is going to obviously, gratuitously, deliberately call out Wolf!Apogee for inactivity in the main thread. Just bananas off the wall insane.

The goal of the game for wolves is not, in fact, to announce that they're wolves. They're supposed to pretend to be townies. That means that if there's a thing that's generally a kinda townie move to pull - like calling out inactives - wolves want to do that too. Poking a wolf buddy who's being less active in the thread, with the full knowledge that you're willing to move your vote away once they show up, has the appearance of helping town when you're actually just sitting there doing nothing.

The only reason it's insane of me to think you'd be doing it is because it's a good wolf strategy.


Is it really that weird to pursue an apparently reasonable combination of self-preservation and voting for the current "he's not saying anything" guy? Felt like 2-for-1 to me. Still does.

It's not weird. Especially for a wolf. Here's a fun lesson for you, as future advice when playing town:

You're supposed to die. And you're supposed to make your death mean something.

If I died right now, dropped dead on the spot, my alignment revealed as town...that lends my theories and reads some validity. All the other players have to stop ignoring my theories on the basis that I might be a wolf, and have to start at least mildly considering them. They've got to come to a conclusion on how they feel about the points I made, if it seems like I was tunneling, or if I'm dead on the money.



Regardless, literally the same logic that makes Kraken a poor choice based on images applies to me as well. Unless you've got some background knowledge on the two of us that you've deliberately chosen to not share, I have a really hard time taking your hard shade on me as justifiable.

No it does not. I'm going to put this in real simple words for you:

There are three pictures accusing Kraken.

There is one picture accusing you.

Other people have said (and you explicitly agreed with them, as I quoted from you in my previous post) that in the first batch of pictures, more pictures fingering the same person is likely to be from wolves, and we should really be looking for a person who's only fingered by one picture.

That person is you. Not kraken. It's not the same situation. It is explicitly, using your own logic, the opposite situation.


Dude, it doesn't "read like OMGUS,"

You don't get to decide how it reads to me. All your flailing and equivocating and straight-up lying doesn't change the facts that you have no case against me other than "but I'm innocent! ugh you're so bad at the game for not realizing I'm innocent, you must be a wolf".


Dude. There's like 50 hours between your first paragraph and second (which is numbered '1'). I was prodding him early Day 2 because he had posted like 3 times by then. I didn't prod after that, because he posted quite a bit, including a damning indictment of a now-confirmed wolf. I didn't change my vote after that because it would have been entirely for show to do so.

1) The "his commentary is hard to argue with" is post 180. The commentary referenced is posts 121, 123, 128.

2) What are you even trying to say? Why would I expect more activity when he's being active? Obviously, Apogee hadn't said those things when I prodded him for not saying anything. This is me answering Snowblaze's repeated question that I overlooked the first time in real time, with real time perspectives. I didn't "expect more activity." I was prodding the (mostly) inactive.

You're doing it again. You're dodging the ****ing question.

I asked you "what happened prior to post 117 that made you expect more activity from Apogee?"

And you answered "he was right about gac"

Him fingering gac happened AFTER post 117. Whether he later ended up maybe being right about other stuff is IRRELEVANT to my question. Your answer has nothing to do with my question, which was about your mindset at the time that you made the post. It's deflection. It's saying that you expected more from Apogee, based on things that had not ****ing happened yet.

That's why I'm calling youa liar.


So your assessment is that this is 100% wolf play. I guess that makes some plausible sense, but it still seems odd at best. Apogee was the 4th vote on gac3, when there was a wagon of 2 he could have tied. That feels like a really strong push from Wolf!Apogee to send a scumbuddy into no man's land when there still seems to be a reasonable play elsewhere. It turned into gac3 is definitely dead, in part because of that vote.

I've explained the thought process. All I'm saying is, if I were scum!Apogee, and returned to the thread to find my scumbuddy gac behaving like that, I would do exactly what Apogee did. Apogee is acting exactly like I would expect Apogee to act if he were on the scum team. The fact that you think a different action would've been taken by a scumbuddy speaks to your inexperience, not mine.


That leaves me feeling generally towny on Snowblaze, and a whole lot of ????? for everyone else. Let's assume your read is accurate (except that I'm town, so someone else has to be the scum buddy (obviously :smallwink:)). I guess that leaves Flat_Footed?

If you're willing to cease being butthurt about me accusing you long enough to think, then I advise you to just look at how people are behaving. General wolf strategy is to be at least doing level 2 thinking. If you're just making the obvious moves, everybody knows those are the obvious moves, and will be looking for them. Wolves want to make moves that look outwardly townie, but are actually (or at least potentially) harmful to town. Look for who's making moves that seem to be townie, and question them on it. Dig into their motives, get them spilling their guts, see if their explanations make sense. Maybe you won't be able to catch them in a lie, that's fine. But maybe somebody else can.

Final advice, especially if you're telling the truth, and you're actually on town's side, and you're about to die despite that: stop arguing with me. I don't mean that in a "im obviously right, stop trying to catch me in a lie". There's at least a few thousand words here for people to catch me with that you've dragged out of me; if I'm scum, there's living players who will be able to rake me over the coals over it. At this point for you, death might not be avoidable...but in a way that's freeing. Make your death count. Figure out how you feel about other people. Find posts from them you find strange and you're not sure how to feel about them - maybe you don't have a full explanation, just a bad feeling in your stomach, and someone else can dig into that once they realize your trustworthy. Maybe you can spot an inconsistency, like someone who said they'd be away from the forum awhile, but then they're active elsewhere. Figure out how you feel about each player inthe game, even if it turns out to be a big ole question mark, and let us know. Leave us a post-mortem note letting us know your thoughts, so we can dig into it and try and get something positive from your death. The worst thing would be to die and town goes "well, I guess the one thing he said over and over is true: he was innocent", and we have nothing else to go on.

(Also, for what it's worth, I'm more suspicious of Apogee than you, and I also think he's the better one of the two of you to test. I'm not sure why the others have moved onto your wagon instead of staying on Apogee.)

[Farmerbink]

Bro. I flat out said it. I wasn't "expecting more activity." I was prodding the inactive player. You apparently forgot how to read for all the walls of nonsense you're spewing. I stopped arguing with you before the last post, 4 updates deep on the previous post, but apparently reading comprehension isn't a strong suit for you.

I'm done with you and your walls of text. And I'm done participating with an absolute condescending assbag. Enjoy your game. Vote me off for all I care. Gatekeepers gonna gatekeep.

Good luck, everyone else.

[AvatarVecna]

Bro. I flat out said it. I wasn't "expecting more activity." I was prodding the inactive player. You apparently forgot how to read for all the walls of nonsense you're spewing. I stopped arguing with you before the last post, 4 updates deep on the previous post, but apparently reading comprehension isn't a strong suit for you.

I'm done with you and your walls of text. And I'm done participating with an absolute condescending assbag. Enjoy your game. Vote me off for all I care. Gatekeepers gonna gatekeep.

Good luck, everyone else.

Don't get mad at me just because I asked you a question, you gave an anachronistic answer, and I latched onto it as a deflection.

- - - Updated - - -

...this isn't helping anything, I'm sorry. I get really intense when it comes to these and often times it's not anywhere close to warranted.

[Farmerbink]

Don't get mad at me just because I asked you a question, you gave an anachronistic answer, and I latched onto it as a deflection.

I'm not. I'm mad at you for saying several things that are at best impolite and unhelpful.

I said, and you quoted: "I didn't "expect more activity." I was prodding the (mostly) inactive."

That's a direct answer to your question. It's not anachronistic or evasive. It's a direct. ****ing. answer. Oh, and you lumped it in with about 6 helpings of "of course I don't expect you to be a good wolf." Well congratu-****ing-lations, I'm a bad town.

- - - Updated - - -

edited to remove a few unnecessary personal insults.

[AvatarVecna]

The structure of the game can make it hard to build community with people in between calling them liars and stuff. I don't mean any ill will towards you as a person. It's a learning process and it takes time to get a feel for the kinds of things that are good moves, or things that are "too obvious" vs "obvious, but subtle enough to get away with". And while I tend to just react to the things I see regardless of who they're coming from, that's not a great way to deal with people who are just entering the community. I should know it's a lot to take in because i'm not done taking it in myself. I'm sorry for snapping and insulting your skills. As a member of the community, I'd like to help nurture people's skills in the game, and sometimes the best opportunity for that is to point to something happening in game like "this is a good move for X side for Y reasons". But it's still not great, because you can't necessarily trust me to be giving good advice, and it's hard to give advice without coming across as an enormous jackass.

- - - Updated - - -

Like even now I'm itching to go quote stuff, to show my perspective on how things went, and why I found a given answer suspicious, but while that's maybe helpful for catching wolves this game, it's not helpful in general, especially right now. I'm not in a good headspace for being less confrontational and given how much of an ass I've been, I don't think you're in the headspace to hear me out. 10000 words of argument is useful to others for figuring out which side we're on, but it just leaves bad feelings everywhere, and I'm particularly bad about not considering that in the heat of the moment.

I still think Apogee should be tested first, for what it's worth.

[Farmerbink]

I hear that. I'm sorry for my part of this conflict. I understand the game is all about deception and catching each other in lies, and frankly I'm probably pretty self-conscious about the simple fact that I'm not very good at this- at least yet.

But I'm not that bad. :smallcool:

At any rate, we'll see if folks vote me or Apogee. Or someone else. Probably me. *shrugs* I could certainly use the time better right now. XD

Also, I hope that me flipping town helps someone surviving townies make sense of things.

[truemane]

Metamagic Mod: closed for review.

[flat_footed]

The Fullmetal Mod: Re-opened. Please remember to argue in-game, not at each other.

[Snowblaze]

Okay, about to fall asleep but checking in, as promised.

I'm too tired to properly parse the Farmerbink and AV... interaction... I've skimmed it but will reread in more detail to see if I can make up my mind within the next few minutes.

@Caoimhin - assuming the brief thread closure doesn't change EOD time?

- - - Updated - - -

Reread stuff, and... gah, I'm undecided but also I just want to sleep.

Farmerbink 3: bladescape, Snowblaze, Let'sGetKraken
Apogee1 1: AvatarVecna
flat_footed 1: Farmerbink
3SecondCultist 1: 3SecondCultist
No posts: Apogee1, flat_footed (without mod hat)

And assuming Farmerbink votes for self-preservation and Apogee/flat don't show up, my vote determines who dies.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm just sitting here typing up an Apogee vote and my gut is telling me I'm wrong but when I think about not voting Apogee and killing Farmerbink instead my gut also tells me I'm wrong.

Case against Apogee:
- distancing/bussing/partnery interactions with gac?
- lack of anything strongly towny in analysis
- moon vision

Case against Farmerbink:
- gac's stance on visions/wanting me to vote Kraken makes significantly more sense as a Farmerbink partner
- field vision???
- defensiveness/OMGUS D3

And I just.

Can't work out which is stronger. And which I believe in more.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

@Caoimhin - assuming the brief thread closure doesn't change EOD time?

The thread wasn't locked as long as I thought it would be so ending today is fine, but if a few of you want to extend the Day by 24 hours I'm cool with that too.

[Snowblaze]

Okay.

Maybe I'd just rather doom myself by inaction than action, but I'm staying where I am.

Goodnight, hoping for the best, and see you all flipside.

(I don't particularly think extending phase is necessary but am fine with it if that's what others want.)

[Farmerbink]

Reread stuff, and... gah, I'm undecided but also I just want to sleep.

Sorry to make you read that. I'd edit much of it out, but at this point I'm afraid it heavily colors people's perspectives. I'm not proud of it.

Regarding wolves, don't know what to tell you. I frankly don't have a strong feeling either.

I think the most condemning thing about Apogee so far is how accurate his commentary on gac3 and Xihi was. The lunar image is a dead giveaway, but it's equally possible that a wolf ghost sent it. The image is clearly more information. We just don't know who sent it, so it's a bit dubious.

What's your read on Flat that leaves you confident he's safe? The most I've got is still early D2 thinking that it would be dumb for wolves to target me when I'm utterly unhelpful.

As always, if you want to vote Apogee so I can keep myself alive, I'll be glad to help off him :smallbiggrin:

- - - Updated - - -

Oof. Peace, gents.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Okay.

Maybe I'd just rather doom myself by inaction than action, but I'm staying where I am.


Without the knowledge of the meta, and with my prime personal suspect bowing out for personal reasons (AvatarVecna makes some very convincing arguments but is also super experienced and could easily be passionately analyzing their way to steamrolling), I will continue to vote with the only hard-cleared town.

[Farmerbink]

I still struggle to follow how it's a wolf play to early vote the other guy that's being strongly suspected and then sit on it, but *shrugs*

[bladescape]

Apogee

Look, it's a bird

[Snowblaze]

Apogee

Look, it's a bird

Lol. I was lying in bed thinking about this (as you do if you're me) and was about to come back and switch to Apogee.

Actually, no, it still does matter. Apogee1.

Because I realised I was an idiot and flat and Apogee have actually posted today and then remembered Apogee voting bladescape and thinking that was kind of wolfy and also the vision is pretty clear and I should probably pay more attention to it.

As for flat, I don't have a reason to townread him, I just think that there are better arguments for killing you and Apogee.

And Kraken, please don't just vote with me. Just because I'm town doesn't make me right.

Now I need sleep if I want to be able to function tomorrow, so kindly yell at me if I post within the next six hours or so.

[Let'sGetKraken]

And Kraken, please don't just vote with me. Just because I'm town doesn't make me right.


Fair point, but you're the least likely to be intentionally lying and your intuition/analysis sniped a wolf Day 2. I'll stay where I am for now, since switching affects nothing, but I trust your judgment here.

[Farmerbink]

I-

*blink*

I don't understand anything anymore. But I guess I'll get to not understand it from the side of the living for a little bit longer?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

8th August, 1922

Today's debate raged on and the only consensus seemed to be a few who turned their attention to one of the quieter psychics. Once again I did not return with the proof until a final decision had been made, but Apogee was in fact one of the mafia.

I hesitate to become too optimistic but having found two of the mafia does raise the spirits. No pun intended.



...maybe a little intended.


CaoimhinTheCape




Apogee was Mafia.

Night 3 Begins! It will last until Tuesday, August 9th, 11:00 PM EST (~25 hours from now)


I'm busy tomorrow night so phase change will be as soon as I get home.

[bladescape]

I'm going to be honest Bink, my wagon on you was entirely to see what would happen.

As I said at day start, I'm certain Apogee was mafia.

I'm just hunting for their partner rn.

- - - Updated - - -

That being said I probably die tonight, two mafia is usually about as much fill as anyone has of me before they off me so I don't catch any more.

[Farmerbink]

Hot dang! I'm not dead, and another mafia is! :smallcool:

[Snowblaze]

Now I need sleep if I want to be able to function tomorrow, so kindly yell at me if I post within the next six hours or so.
Just over six hours later...

I-

*blink*

I don't understand anything anymore. But I guess I'll get to not understand it from the side of the living for a little bit longer?
Welcome to the club.

(Seriously, though, bladescape switch is very much in character and something I probably should have seen coming. As for me, I just managed to break my paralysis of indecision)



That being said I probably die tonight, two mafia is usually about as much fill as anyone has of me before they off me so I don't catch any more.

death glare

What do I have to do to get myself nightkilled?

Will save thoughts until day phase, partly because I'm mildly sleep-deprived and partly so I don't stay alive by misclearing a wolf again.

[bladescape]

death glare

What do I have to do to get myself nightkilled?

Will save thoughts until day phase, partly because I'm mildly sleep-deprived and partly so I don't stay alive by misclearing a wolf again.

Step 1: Rand Town

No literally, that's it, it's that easy.

[Farmerbink]

Step 1: Rand Town

No literally, that's it, it's that easy.

*snort*

Nothing else to add right now

[Farmerbink]

OK, so I have some thoughts. Remaining players: AltarVecna, Flat_Footed, Snowblaze, Bladescape, Farmerbink, 3SecCultist(sort of?)

First, without an imminent replacement for 3Sec, there's 5 living players. If there's 4 mafia to start with, we've already lost, right? They off a town tonight and its 2v2 so they win?

Please confirm. I have more I'd like to discuss before one of us dies, but I don't want to throw if that implication is wrong.

- - - Updated - - -

Hmmm.. LetsGetKraken, duh. that puts us at 7/6 players still, which screws up the math pretty significantly.....

- - - Updated - - -

And complicates the thought process. :smalleek:

- - - Updated - - -

So, night ends in 10.5 hours, and a townie dies. At what point do we start discussing strategies and perspectives, because one of the more confident townies is totally toast?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

First, without an imminent replacement for 3Sec, there's 5 living players.


Aventine will be replacing 3SecondCultist

[Farmerbink]

My math was off anyway, but that puts us firmly at 7 remaining players, which is an important baseline :smalleek:

- - - Updated - - -

So there could reasonably be 2 remaining mafia, so assuming 1 doesn't really set us up for success anyway.

[Let'sGetKraken]

My math was off anyway, but that puts us firmly at 7 remaining players, which is an important baseline :smalleek:

- - - Updated - - -

So there could reasonably be 2 remaining mafia, so assuming 1 doesn't really set us up for success anyway.

Having hit wolves 2/3 possible nights, we are doing incredibly well. I'm not sure how this normally goes but that is an excellent ratio, even if there are four (which I doubt).

I think we're just down to a single wolf now. Snow, Vecna, and Bladescape are all pretty much cleared at this point. My suspicions point to Cultist's replacement, flat_footed, or Bink. But we can get into it more D3.

[AvatarVecna]

There are seven players currently alive. Given the game size, I would generally expect no more than 3 wolves. I guess it's possible we could have 4, but that feels like it'd be pretty easily a steamroll for wolves - like, we've caught wolves on 2 of 3 lynches, and we're still kinda screwed if there were 4 wolves to start. That's not great balance. There's almost certainly only one wolf left.

I'm gonna do some ISOs and wagonomics.

[Farmerbink]

I think we're just down to a single wolf now. Snow, Vecna, and Bladescape are all pretty much cleared at this point. My suspicions point to Cultist's replacement, flat_footed, or Bink. But we can get into it more D3.

Obviously my math is only a little different, but I generally agree. The only question I have is this: let's assume a worst-case scenario and there's 2 more wolves. Are we likely to lose valuable information with tonight's kill if we don't discuss things now? There's a few loose-ends floating around connected with... likely losses, in my estimation. I'd really like to at least address them before we run the risk of losing the only person that can confirm.

I guess that looks wolf-ish, but I'm kind of past worrying about whether I look like a wolf. Just trying to really hash out the thought processes for and against learning more now.

Edit: I was about to ask why Bladescape, but that late D2 offing of a wolf is a pretty good look, isn't it? :smallbiggrin: *facepalm*

- - - Updated - - -


There are seven players currently alive. Given the game size, I would generally expect no more than 3 wolves. I guess it's possible we could have 4, but that feels like it'd be pretty easily a steamroll for wolves - like, we've caught wolves on 2 of 3 lynches, and we're still kinda screwed if there were 4 wolves to start. That's not great balance. There's almost certainly only one wolf left.

I'm inclined to trust your take here, but the metaphorical fat lady isn't singing yet. I would argue we're actually in a really, really good place if there's only one wolf, and a pretty survivable one with two. Again, I'll hold my detailed thoughts until closer to daybreak, at least.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Obviously my math is only a little different, but I generally agree. The only question I have is this: let's assume a worst-case scenario and there's 2 more wolves. Are we likely to lose valuable information with tonight's kill if we don't discuss things now? There's a few loose-ends floating around connected with... likely losses, in my estimation. I'd really like to at least address them before we run the risk of losing the only person that can confirm.

I guess that looks wolf-ish, but I'm kind of past worrying about whether I look like a wolf. Just trying to really hash out the thought processes for and against learning more now.

Edit: I was about to ask why Bladescape, but that late D2 offing of a wolf is a pretty good look, isn't it? :smallbiggrin: *facepalm*

Yeah, Bladescape's pivot from you to Apogee sealed their fate. Only plausible reasons for a wolf to do that would be to protect another wolf by sacrificing the most suspicious one - which doesn't seen likely, given that both you and Blade can't be wolves, given the starting player math. Blade is hard cleared as a consequence. Vecna is not quite as hard cleared, but was still pushing hard at Apogee in a way that makes them almost certainly town. Snow is still cleared from Gac Day2 or is playing such big brained strats as a wolf that they honestly deserve to win.

Given that these three are as close to hard cleared as we get, and are consequently the likeliest wolf targets, I would like to hear more from the three of them before the night ends, if possible.

[AvatarVecna]

Obviously my math is only a little different, but I generally agree. The only question I have is this: let's assume a worst-case scenario and there's 2 more wolves. Are we likely to lose valuable information with tonight's kill if we don't discuss things now? There's a few loose-ends floating around connected with... likely losses, in my estimation. I'd really like to at least address them before we run the risk of losing the only person that can confirm.

I guess that looks wolf-ish, but I'm kind of past worrying about whether I look like a wolf. Just trying to really hash out the thought processes for and against learning more now.

Edit: I was about to ask why Bladescape, but that late D2 offing of a wolf is a pretty good look, isn't it? :smallbiggrin: *facepalm*

- - - Updated - - -



I'm inclined to trust your take here, but the metaphorical fat lady isn't singing yet. I would argue we're actually in a really, really good place if there's only one wolf, and a pretty survivable one with two. Again, I'll hold my detailed thoughts until closer to daybreak, at least.

Two wolves is actually a really bad spot for us, despite how well we're doing. Let's lay out the math:

N3: Town 5/Wolf 2
D4: Town 4/Wolf 2. We lynch a townie.
N4: Town 3/Wolf 2.
D5: Town 2/Wolf 2. We lose.

This is...a problem. If we started with 4 wolves, that means on D2 (when we had 10 players) it was Town 6/Wolf 4, which is LyLo (literally Lynch or Lose). A game design where D2 is LyLo is extremely balanced in favor of scumteam, and near-impossible for town to win unless they're extremely on-point.

The fact that we're in a really really good position if there's one wolf left isn't a reflection of how unlikely "one wolf left" is, it's a reflection of how well we've been playing so far. Other than the D1 lynch, town has not yet failed to catch a wolf.

- - - Updated - - -


This unpairs 3SC and Apogee.

(Yes I'm starting to try to find unpairings.

I disagree that it unpairs.

EDIT: Not saying I necessarily think they're paired, but that particular interaction, the wagonomics aren't exactly pushing a non-w/w explanation. Apogee pushed 3SC to 3 votes...but if Apogee and 3SC are scumbuddies, two of the three votes on 3SC are scum votes...and somebody else reached 3 votes first so this wouldn't even necessarily put 3SC in danger...and also it was early D1 so those votes moving wouldn't surprise anyone. It could be a wolf voting what looks like a leading wagon. It could also be two wolves making really easy distancing.

I'll look at the other interactions, especially the gac ones.

- - - Updated - - -

Post 2

Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna

Post 3

Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
3SecondCultist (1): Book Wombat

Post 4

Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
3SecondCultist (1): Book Wombat
Rogan (1): flat_footed

Post 5

Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
3SecondCultist (1): Book Wombat
Rogan (1): flat_footed
Book Wombat (1): gac3

Post 6

Snowblaze (2): AvatarVecna, bladescape
3SecondCultist (1): Book Wombat
Rogan (1): flat_footed
Book Wombat (1): gac3

Post 7

Snowblaze (2): AvatarVecna, bladescape
3SecondCultist (1): Book Wombat
Rogan (1): flat_footed
Book Wombat (2): gac3, Snowblaze

Post 8

Snowblaze (2): AvatarVecna, bladescape
3SecondCultist (1): Book Wombat
Rogan (1): flat_footed
Book Wombat (2): gac3, Snowblaze
Xihirli (1): Rogan

Post 14

Snowblaze (2): AvatarVecna, bladescape
3SecondCultist (1): Book Wombat
Rogan (1): flat_footed
Book Wombat (2): gac3, Snowblaze
Xihirli (1): Rogan
No Lynch (1): Let'sGetKraken

Post 17

Snowblaze (2): AvatarVecna, bladescape
3SecondCultist (2): Book Wombat, 3SecondCultist
Rogan (1): flat_footed
Book Wombat (2): gac3, Snowblaze
Xihirli (1): Rogan
No Lynch (1): Let'sGetKraken

Post 18

Snowblaze (2): AvatarVecna, bladescape
3SecondCultist (2): Book Wombat, 3SecondCultist
Rogan (1): flat_footed
Book Wombat (3): gac3, Snowblaze, FarmerBink
Xihirli (1): Rogan
No Lynch (1): Let'sGetKraken

Post 21

Snowblaze (2): AvatarVecna, bladescape
3SecondCultist (3): Book Wombat, 3SecondCultist, Apogee1
Rogan (1): flat_footed
Book Wombat (3): gac3, Snowblaze, FarmerBink
Xihirli (1): Rogan
No Lynch (1): Let'sGetKraken

Post 25

Snowblaze (2): AvatarVecna, bladescape
3SecondCultist (4): Book Wombat, 3SecondCultist, Apogee1, Xihirli
Rogan (1): flat_footed
Book Wombat (3): gac3, Snowblaze, FarmerBink
Xihirli (1): Rogan
No Lynch (1): Let'sGetKraken

Post 31

Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
3SecondCultist (4): Book Wombat, 3SecondCultist, Apogee1, Xihirli
Rogan (1): flat_footed
Book Wombat (4): gac3, Snowblaze, FarmerBink, bladescape
Xihirli (1): Rogan
No Lynch (1): Let'sGetKraken

Post 34

Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
3SecondCultist (3): Book Wombat, Apogee1, Xihirli
Rogan (1): flat_footed
Book Wombat (5): gac3, Snowblaze, FarmerBink, bladescape, 3SecondCultist
Xihirli (1): Rogan
No Lynch (1): Let'sGetKraken

Post 38

Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
3SecondCultist (3): Book Wombat, Apogee1, Xihirli
Rogan (1): flat_footed
Book Wombat (5): gac3, Snowblaze, FarmerBink, bladescape, 3SecondCultist
Xihirli (2): Rogan, Let'sGetKraken

Post 39

Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
3SecondCultist (3): Book Wombat, Apogee1, Xihirli
Rogan (1): flat_footed
Book Wombat (4): gac3, FarmerBink, bladescape, 3SecondCultist
Xihirli (3): Rogan, Let'sGetKraken, Snowblaze

Post 44

Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
3SecondCultist (2): Book Wombat, Apogee1
Rogan (1): flat_footed
Book Wombat (4): gac3, FarmerBink, bladescape, 3SecondCultist
Xihirli (4): Rogan, Let'sGetKraken, Snowblaze, Xihirli





Post 80

Apogee1: gac3

Post 84

Apogee1 (1): gac3
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted

Post 86

Apogee1 (1): gac3
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken

Post 87

Apogee1 (1): gac3
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape

Post 94

Apogee1 (1): gac3
FarmerBink (2): flatfooted, Snowblaze
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape

Post 106-1

Apogee1 (1): gac3
FarmerBink (2): flatfooted, Snowblaze
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape
Let'sGetKraken (1): FarmerBink

Post 106-2

Apogee1 (2): gac3, FarmerBink
FarmerBink (2): flatfooted, Snowblaze
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape

Post 107

Apogee1 (2): gac3, FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape
gac3 (1): Snowblaze

Post 108

Apogee1 (2): gac3, FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape
Let'sGetKraken (1): 3SecondCultist
gac3 (1): Snowblaze

Post 112

Apogee1 (2): gac3, FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape
Let'sGetKraken (1): 3SecondCultist
gac3 (2): Snowblaze, Xihirli

Post 113

Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape
Let'sGetKraken (2): 3SecondCultist, gac3
gac3 (2): Snowblaze, Xihirli

Post 114

Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
Snowblaze (1): bladescape
Let'sGetKraken (2): 3SecondCultist, gac3
gac3 (3): Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken

Post 128

Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
Snowblaze (1): bladescape
Let'sGetKraken (2): 3SecondCultist, gac3
gac3 (4): Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, Apogee1

Post 132

Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
Snowblaze (1): bladescape
Let'sGetKraken (1): 3SecondCultist
gac3 (5): Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, Apogee1, gac3

Post 134

Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
Let'sGetKraken (2): 3SecondCultist, bladescape
gac3 (5): Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, Apogee1, gac3

Post 138

Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
Let'sGetKraken (1): bladescape
gac3 (6): Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, Apogee1, gac3, 3SecondCultist

Post 146

Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
Let'sGetKraken (2): bladescape, AvatarVecna
gac3 (6): Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, Apogee1, gac3, 3SecondCultist





Post 159

3SecondCultist (1): Snowblaze

Post 160

3SecondCultist (1): Snowblaze
Apogee1 (1): bladescape

Post 167

3SecondCultist (1): Snowblaze
Apogee1 (2): bladescape, AvatarVecna

Post 168

3SecondCultist (1): Snowblaze
Apogee1 (2): bladescape, AvatarVecna
bladescape (1): Apogee1

Post 170

3SecondCultist (2): Snowblaze, 3SecondCultist
Apogee1 (2): bladescape, AvatarVecna
bladescape (1): Apogee1

Post 182

3SecondCultist (2): Snowblaze, 3SecondCultist
Apogee1 (2): bladescape, AvatarVecna
bladescape (1): Apogee1
AvatarVecna (1): Farmerbink

Post 199

3SecondCultist (2): Snowblaze, 3SecondCultist
Apogee1 (1): AvatarVecna
bladescape (1): Apogee1
AvatarVecna (1): Farmerbink
Farmerbink (1): bladescape

Post 200

3SecondCultist (1): 3SecondCultist
Apogee1 (1): AvatarVecna
bladescape (1): Apogee1
AvatarVecna (1): Farmerbink
Farmerbink (2): bladescape, Snowblaze

Post 203

3SecondCultist (1): 3SecondCultist
Apogee1 (1): AvatarVecna
bladescape (1): Apogee1
AvatarVecna (1): Farmerbink
Farmerbink (3): bladescape, Snowblaze, Let'sGetKraken

Post 210

3SecondCultist (1): 3SecondCultist
Apogee1 (1): AvatarVecna
bladescape (1): Apogee1
Farmerbink (3): bladescape, Snowblaze, Let'sGetKraken
flat_footed (1): Farmerbink



- - - Updated - - -

We've got two wolves and three real suspects (Farmerbink, 3SecondCultist, flat_footed). I'm gonna do a multi-ISO of those five, see how they all talk about each other, see if I can get some pairing/unpairing going.

[Farmerbink]

Just by the numbers on votes, Flat_footed has *never* voted a confirmed wolf, and has spent a lot of time voting confirmed towns.

3Sec was the knife in BookWombat's coffin on day 1 and voted gac3 only very late in the context of a sure lynch.

My D1 looks similarly bad, except perhaps by consistency and voting early?
By contrast, I spent (virtually) all of D2 on Apogee (perhaps dumb luck he was wolf, but it was, regardless). Day 3 was a gigantic cluster of just trying to get out of the heat, in which I only voted AV out of explicit spite and swapped to one of the two (from my chair) strongest suspects.

I really don't see much to distinguish 3Sec and Flat_footed, except that knife on BW day one. I'd call that a bad look for 3Sec and FF's votes reasonably vanilla.

- - - Updated - - -

It may be outrageously meta (and if that's out of bounds, please say so so I can correct the post), but if I'm Wolf!Flat_Footed approaching the end of this game, I don't think I miss the entirety of D3. It's pretty weak defense, but it's there all the same.

- - - Updated - - -

But he stepped in briefly with the mod hat? :smallconfused:

[AvatarVecna]

Just by the numbers on votes, Flat_footed has *never* voted a confirmed wolf, and has spent a lot of time voting confirmed towns.

3Sec was the knife in BookWombat's coffin on day 1 and voted gac3 only very late in the context of a sure lynch.

My D1 looks similarly bad, except perhaps by consistency and voting early?
By contrast, I spent (virtually) all of D2 on Apogee (perhaps dumb luck he was wolf, but it was, regardless). Day 3 was a gigantic cluster of just trying to get out of the heat, in which I only voted AV out of explicit spite and swapped to one of the two (from my chair) strongest suspects.

I really don't see much to distinguish 3Sec and Flat_footed, except that knife on BW day one. I'd call that a bad look for 3Sec and FF's votes reasonably vanilla.

- - - Updated - - -

It may be outrageously meta (and if that's out of bounds, please say so so I can correct the post), but if I'm Wolf!Flat_Footed approaching the end of this game, I don't think I miss the entirety of D3. It's pretty weak defense, but it's there all the same.

- - - Updated - - -

But he stepped in briefly with the mod hat? :smallconfused:

Without getting too deep into the "why", I will say that it frequently makes sense for wolves to vote each other. The word people tend to use is "distancing", and depending on the wolves in question, it could be as little as voting each other now and then, or even knock-down-drag-out arguments like you and I were having the other day. If we were scumbuddies and you had gotten lynched yesterday, I would be untouchable. There's value in that...sometimes, anyway. It's definitely usually better to get town lynched than scum, but at least acting like you're willing to lynch a scumbuddy can be good defense against future accusations, especially if you're positive they won't actually get lynched today.

As examples: gac and Apogee voted each other the day gac died. gac's vote on Apogee was never intended to last, but Apogee made the decision that gac was already caught, and chose to be the one putting the nails in the coffin. So who y'all have voted for at one time or another isn't necessarily the biggest indicator of who's on scumteam.

EDIT: That said, flat skipping most of D3 is definitely a bad look, in large part because Apogee basically disappeared after he tried and failed to turn accusations back on bladescape.

[Farmerbink]

As examples: gac and Apogee voted each other the day gac died. gac's vote on Apogee was never intended to last, but Apogee made the decision that gac was already caught, and chose to be the one putting the nails in the coffin. So who y'all have voted for at one time or another isn't necessarily the biggest indicator of who's on scumteam.

I get that. I argued that in defense of Apogee, even. :smalleek:


EDIT: That said, flat skipping most of D3 is definitely a bad look, in large part because Apogee basically disappeared after he tried and failed to turn accusations back on bladescape.

Just to be clear, is that a bad look for Flat_Footed, in the sense that it makes him look more wolf? I don't follow, but would like to know your reasoning.

[AvatarVecna]

I get that. I argued that in defense of Apogee, even. :smalleek:



Just to be clear, is that a bad look for Flat_Footed, in the sense that it makes him look more wolf? I don't follow, but would like to know your reasoning.

It's the "quiet wolves are dangerous" thing. In essence, everything you say in game is something that can he used to get a handle on which side you're playing for. This is just math: if you speak zero words, people can't figure out anything about you; if you speak a million words, people will figure out how you're thinking about things, and can make a judgement on whether they think you're viewing the game through a townie lens or a scummy one.

Town knows this, and so quiet people get a bit of side-eye. So it's in the hest interest of wolves to talk...unless they get caught. If you're just caught, and there's no wiggling out of it, the best thing to do as a wolf is just shut up - because anything you say at that point could be used to find your scumbuddies. You've already screwed up and gotten yourself caught, don't keep screwing up and get your friends caught too.

Apogee saw bladescape make a weak case against him, and pushed back on blade. He noticed I'd voted him too and made a line about that in his post calling blade out. Then he read my case against him, and dropped off the face of the earth. 3SC gave an excuse for not being there. Flat footed never showed up.

If the remaining wolf is one of the others, the best thing for them to do is avoid tye spotlight. And with you and me arguing the whole day, there was nobody asking flat footed tricky questions...which is really good for FF if he's a wolf.

Tldr the votes aren't necessarily suspicious, but the silence might be

EDIT: This is also more of a trend than a guarantee of course. Some people just tend to play quiet regardless of which side they're on. FF tends to be quiet; idk about 3SC yet. Similarly, some players (like myself) wallpost so much as town, that they cant get away with being quiet as wolves, or they'd get found out even quicker.

[Aventine]

Aventine will be replacing 3SecondCultist

Hello all.

I took a quick read through the thread to try to get up to speed and am now ODing on tinfoil.

I will go back through things and try to have coherent and sensible reads in time for Day.

[Snowblaze]

Okay, brief thoughts before I sleep. There's almost certainly one wolf left because four wolves in a twelve player game is highly unbalanced.

Kraken is town. bladescape is town. AV is 99% town.

Farmerbink, flat_footed, 3SecondCultist Aventine. One wolf in those.

Who is a large question mark, since it requires analysis which I haven't done and won't do now because it's late both RL and in the phase.

otoh:

- my gut now says Farmerbink is town but I can't really justify that, and I still think there are valid points against him.

- I stand by thinking 3SC's EOD2 makes a lot more sense from a wolf than town but I feel bad about trying to kill Aventine when they've only just replaced in.

- flat_footed has just been the nullest of null reads all game and I'm getting to the point where I'm wondering if he's a wolf just because of that lack of anything towny.

So... yeah, pending analysis I don't know who the last wolf is.

Hoping to wake up dead, but if I don't I'll try and do at least some analysis.

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Similarly, some players (like myself) wallpost so much as town, that they cant get away with being quiet as wolves, or they'd get found out even quicker.
Can confirm. Hence what I did last game.

Hello all.

I took a quick read through the thread to try to get up to speed and am now ODing on tinfoil.

I will go back through things and try to have coherent and sensible reads in time for Day.

Hi Aventine, looking forward to your thoughts.

[AvatarVecna]

3SecondCultist


Good midafternoon.

I'll take the bait -- 3SecondCultist.

As previously mentioned: At time of Apogee's vote, the wagons were BW 3/3SC 2. Apogee votes 3SC, pushing that wagon to three - but because of tie rules, these wagons have a 0% chance of killing 3SC without additional votes. These votes occurred early D1, and if 3SC is scum, there's two scum on a scum-wagon, those votes wouldn't stay...and nobody would call foul if those votes moved, since it's early D1. I'm not saying this is definitely distancing, I just don't feel as comfortable as bladescape is ruling it out.


I mean, I voted 3second more-or-less on the presumption he wanted something like what he's claimed regarding kraken to happen.

Although, I'm now swirling that he outed that plan shortly before kraken returned who in turn reacted ... how he would have predicted. It's too on the nose to be w/w in my experience, but something around that feels a bit performative.

Then again, maybe that's not a bad thing either.
I was, at the time of a vote, fishing for a reaction from 3SC based on the premise that he probably self voted to fish for reactions.

I am now questioning if that premise holds or rather what I think of it.

Mmmm this definitely feels more unpairing though. Apogee's turning a small weirdness into shade, and we know Apogee is scum-sided.



Do you think the 3SC votes are wolfy?

Votes? Did they cast multiple at that point?

I don't really see the self voting as inherently wolfy. My internal meta usually says it's a good sign. Though that's also usually with some of the players I know better.

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Day feels like it went so fast.

The 3SC wagon went from tied for lead to not in lead at all, and the Xihirli wagon shot up in its place. Xihirli later flips town, as does Book Wombat.

If we assume 3SC is scum, this is town!Snow asking scum!gac about scum!3SC. scum!gac is very aware of what was going on with his scumbuddies wagon, but isn't sure what a safe answer is to give, so he pretends to misunderstand the question and gives a safe answer to a different question, while conferring with wolfchat.

If we assume 3SC is town, this is town!Snow asking scum!gac about town!3SC. scum!gac wasn't paying attention to one of the primary wagons of the day, or the vote movements surrounding it, and misunderstood the question to be about self-voting, and possible multi-voting.

One of these is what happened. Which feels more likely to y'all?


"I see nothing. I know nothing. I'm going to sleep. Maybe it'll make more sense tomorrow."

The now only mostly-sweaty man prowls off into the dark mansion, ostensibly to find a suitable place to rest.

"ostensibly"

It's hardly a guarantee, but also this wouldn't be the first time a wolf told on themselves in the roleplaying. I'd give this piece of "evidence" as little weight as possible, though, if I were you.


- That... Actually makes a lot more sense. I will get back to you on the answer though. I'll look more closely and see. Instinct though, it was more "I don't understand" than anything though since Book was the other wagon and died, that makes the votes inherently less suspicious as a whole I think.

Also crap, I need to catch up. We have two seer claims?

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Oh. I see. I got you. I'm hip. I'm game. I'm cool. Actually no. I'm still confused but I almost have a theory.

gac puts off answering the question, but gives what he feels is a safe "gut feeling": namely, that there probably weren't wolves on the 3SC wagon. This has since been determined to be a lie coming from a liar, of course. I don't think this post says anything either way on whether scum!gac wanted 3SC viewed as suspicious or not.


I don't understand the Seer and Mason claims. Are there different roles within Town?

Scumlean. Specifically because...


I explain later vanillager... Maybe... I'm only 35% sure I understand why we have decided to claim.

I'll claim Necromancer.

...gac didn't really get it either, but he had a theory.


*Note, check who AV is talking about.*

Another reason I didn't vote Xi. I'm still town reading them and since the available visions are limited anyways, I'd rather have the players I trust most helping make sense of them than helping send them. Though my opinion on. Xi's self voting argument may change once we see these visions and I see how easy/hard they seem to be to analyze.

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Well not really? Not saying the people can't be wolves but four people voted that wagon and there was only one competing wagon. Since we know said competing wagon was a townie, I don't see any reason to assume this wagon was wolf motivated or anything. People on it could be wolves but I don't think the suddenness of the wagon or the votes themselves are wolf indicative.

I'm of two minds about this.

On the one hand, gac's pretty consistently been saying "I don't think there's wolves on that wagon", which we now know was cover for Apogee. It's possible he's so focused on defending his scumbuddy, that he isn't even pausing to consider the possibility that people wanna know if he thinks 3SC is scum, and that the later town wagons that took over were themselves pushed by wolves.

On the other hand, it's also possible he was keenly aware that's a question being asked too, and he's just straight-up refusing to answer it by focusing on who was on the wagon, rather than on how votes moved to save that wagon.

I can see this post supporting either conclusion, so I don't feel comfortable declaring it pairing or unpairing.


AvatarVecna
flat_footed
bladescape
Xihirli
FarmerBink
3SecondCultist
Apogee1
gac3
Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze

Interesting that there are only 4 pictures. If I was sending messages, I would try to point at one player in particular with however many messages made sense. My initial reads line up pretty well with gac3, Farmer and Kraken are the two that spring to mind.

FarmerBink

"I would try to point at one player with however many messages make sense"

That's gonna create a lot of noise though, makes it hard to find the actual meaningful stuff if it's getting cluttered.

"My initial reads line up pretty well with gac3"

Mmmmm looks much worse in retrospect than it is, I think.


Actually no, just the opposite. Coming from a town viewpoint, someone having the first two conclusions I did has me give gac3 a slight town lean. Subject to either of those being accurate and either being a wolf; hard to say at this point.

And yes, thank you. Corrected.

And this is what's making me think unpaired. I feel like a wolf would've waffled more on this if they thought they were getting called out for agreeing with a scumbuddy.


"Might sound a bit odd, but I generally trust Flat_Footed and Snowblaze. Simply put, I don't know anything, and that makes me a poor choice for the killers to want to off during the day. I'm not gonna contribute to that effort, for reasons I suspect are obvious, but I don't have much to contrib- oh, what's this?" His rambling thoughts finally lead the images into his field of view, and he eagerly approaches the table.

I've already touched on the mechanical stuff from this post, and after all the arguing, I'm inclined to not merely scumread it - Xihirli did in fact mention this theory before bink changed his vote, where I initially though it first came up much later. That's my mistake.

However, I'd like to hear from Bink about this bit in the roleplay, which I skipped over previously. Can you tell me why, at the start of D2, you were leaning towards trusting FF and Snowblaze? This isn't supposed to be like...a gotcha question or anything. I just wanna hear the thought process behind these leans.


I'm getting a wolf read for Kraken as well, largely from the visions portrayed so far and because he oversold the whole 'conflicted over whether I'm wolf' thing from D1. It's precisely the play he would make if he was really wolf and wanted to play off of my ego.

As to your point about him not being 'an experienced player'. Kraken loves Mafia games. He's a seasoned Among Us player, he's played Werewolf, and he lives for these types of bluffs. I would not let the fact that he is new to this game, in particular, deter you from getting the same wolf vibes that I absolutely have right now.



Because I know him IRL and we were also hanging out IRL for all of D1. I wanted to see whether he would lean in to my self-voting joke, and how far he would lean. Alone, his reactions were not suspicious. He played it up a bit, which only meant that he was uncertain at the time as to whether or not I'm town. But when taken with the visions - which I think point to him more than anyone else - I get wolfy feelings.

LetsGetKraken has my vote.

While I'm townleaning Kraken based on gamestate, I don't really wanna make a statement about whether this says something scummy or towny about 3SC. This is largely because it's based on an out-of-game relationship that I have no context for. I will say that, if game talk occurred outside the thread, and in particular where the narrator can't see it, I'm not super-happy about that. In any case, I don't feel I can make any confident statement on how this leans.


Let's see. If I had to guess right now?

Then vision based: maybe
Let'sgetKraken
Or Farmerbrink

Definitely not Xi.

Beyond that:
AV is harder for me to read than Xi.
Snowblaze is probably town tbh.
I don't feel I have much on 3second, Apogee, or flat.
And blade... Idk. Slight town lean.

So (how many wolves are there? 3? 4? I'm not going to bother with the math.
I'd say wolves are most likely in
Kraken
Farmer
Apogee
Flat
3sexond cultist

There's a thing in this post that really, really makes me suspect scum!Bink, but I don't know that I can really justify it, given how little this post is saying.


Just kind of confused over Apogee's continued silence. :smallconfused:

Has already been debated to death. If there's something to be sussed out of this, whoever is alive in the morning can sift through all the arguments looking for it.


I agree. If he is a silent wolf, that is not great. If he is town and just inactive, that’s worse.

This feels weird, but I'm struggling to put it into words.


I'm debating internally if the "Coming from a town viewpoint" here is actually how a town is likely to reflect on their own towniness, or is more a wolf worried they want to make this clear.

Not just an idle musing, I've seen players who would cut either way, anyone know if flat-footed is self-aware in this regard often? Like, this is very much the kind of thing I /suspect/ is relatively alignment indicative in a direction, but which direction is dependent on the player.

Tentative unpairing for this post. Given Apogee's behavior, I doubt he'd pop into the thread, shade one scumbuddy for something everybody had let slide, and immediately throw the other one directly under the bus. One or the other, but both at once feels excessive.


Tentative read is that a wolf makes this post more often than a villager, with the "to clarify." That kind of clarification is something wolves think about more than villagers ime.

- - - Updated - - -

I've had a long-running read that posts with a lot of "updates" are villagy because it shows a sequence of thoughts comes over time as opposed to be pre-constructed.

This of course is easily gamable, but I'm fine with snow both independently and with it.

- - - Updated - - -



I'm coming back to the whole snowblade voting gac section because spoiler I'm going to end up voting gac and want to talk about that in one post as opposed to over a sequence of catch-up.

3secondcultist (not a vote) can you explain this sentence? "He played it up a bit, which only meant that he was uncertain at the time as to whether or not I'm town. But when taken with the visions - which I think point to him more than anyone else - I get wolfy feelings." Generally I'd think that "he was uncertain at the time as to whether or not I'm town" is a great indicator of someone being a villager, as wolves are cursed with TMI and all that. I'm not sure why taken with the visions causes this to pivot so fully, considering the visions aren't /giving new context to his reaction to you/ just (possibly) indicating he's a wolf because the villagers in deadchat have information he is such?

Unpairing with 3SC, this feels more solid than the others.


Ugh. Literally saying gac is doing weird gac stuff and is nullish. Because you say that so often. And TBF not just you. It's to the point that when someone acts like I'm making sense I wolf read them because I'm always being told I think weird. Yet then I try to lean into it with comments about being weird. Whatever. Not even relevant to me defending my alignment. Just personally very annoying.
People: "Gac is weird. Gac is weird."
Gac: "haha yeah. I'm weird."
People: "gac is trying to hide his wolfiness by saying he's weird.

It's not even the good kind of weird that comes with AV and Xi and Snowblaze. Ugh.


First off... Why am I the highest poster? I keep feeling like I'm barely checking in.

Why are you town? I mean I don't know for sure you are. Unlike Xi. Definitely town there. But I'm leaning that way. You are talking more than anyone and are being your regular level of paranoid instead of your boosted wolf paranoid.

Why wouldn't town you line up with that?

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Still think Kraken might be a good target but screw it. I'm curious how this game looks from the other side. Gac3

Unpairing with Snow and Kraken. This is the kind of thing that's making them locktown in my mind.


Hmmm. I don't know gac (or most of you) well enough to get a read on your behaviour over multiple games. The only data I have to analyze here is what has been said this very game. If I look at that, I see some self-effacing messages. Being 'weird' means absolutely nothing to me in the context of the game - we're all writing messages on a 15 year old message board forum, I don't think any of us are normal - but referring to oneself in the third person seems like either an attempt to objectively point out one's own posts or is a wolfy technique.

I agree that Snowblaze and Xi are likely town, if only because you're both talking too much to be wolves for my liking. The wolfy slip up is usually to talk too much, but the level of play here suggests to be that being relatively quiet would is a more commonly employed survival strategy. That does point to apogee somewhat, but it's too soon to tell.

I could see gac as wolf, absolutely. Not sure who their partner(s) are. The visions don't lean that way at all, but as has been strenuously pointed out, there is a good chance that wolves sent the maximum number of visions to muddy the pool as much as possible. It would stand to reason then that the majority of the images are false leads. I did not consider that before.

Since the wagon is going that way, I will jump on it. Changing vote to gac3.

Note that if gac is town, Kraken gets a huge wolfread from me and an immediate vote on D3 (and yes, I know I'm biased). I share Snowblaze's confidence that one of them is a wolf.

This post is setting off my scumdar more than a bit. For starters, 3SC is the 6th vote on gac's wagon. It's a surface-level wolf tactic. Wolves wanna do towny stuff, like voting for wolves, but they don't wanna be the reason a scumbuddy dies. But if gac is already doomed to get lynched...why not join his wagon and get some towncred? Apogee tried to jump in at a more pivotal time to avoid getting spotted for doing exactly that, but 3SC wouldn't necessarily know better. Not unless Apogee told him to not jump. Honestly, that's what this choice comes down to for me: if you think Apogee would've told a scumbuddy to just stay put and not draw attention once gac was doomed, that's Farmerbink. If you think Apogee wouldn't have been bossing around the team and was maybe just talking about bussing in wolfchat, I can see 3SC bussing without realizing that moment was a bad time to bus.

And if we view this post in the context of "3SC is scum", there's some things that look worse. In particular, "That does point to Apogee somewhat, but it's too soon to tell" could easily be read as TMI and waffle-wolf. I'm just not sure I trust someone jumping from their main suspect to a lesser suspect just for the sake of being on the bigger wagon (and coincidentally the one that happens to be right).

The other thing to consider: if 3SC is the third scum, that means the last three votes on gac were all scumteam. Two of them are already confirmed to have been. Do we think that's the trick scum was pulling? Apogee came online, saw gac was hosed, and said "everybody jump on gac's wagon, yes gac that includes you, get every wolf on this wagon, there's no way they'll believe half of a scum wagon was scumbuddies".


"I only have one question to add," the tired man interjects.

"Hypothetically, let's assume gac3 is wolf. How on earth does our friendly spirit successfully supply images that point at him? What about his name could be tied to any of these images?."

"My vote means nothing at this rate, as I've no particularly confident wolf lean to even challenge that gac wagon with Kraken. No reason to move it."

I'm afraid we've run into a hard issue ((with the system)). Without some sort of public "role" assignment with imagery or symbolism, we're stuck trying to make pictures look like words names (which are often somewhat nonsensical in their own right)

*rubs temples*

1) "Oh come on, even if it's gac, how do the images even point to gac." I don't think anybody has stated they believe that every set of images will contain hints at every wolf, in part because it's hard to get the pictures to hint at anybody in particular, let alone multiple people in one batch...at least, multiple people from town in one batch. More likely, the images happened to be pointing to a different scumbuddy.

2) Don't vote for a scumbuddy on principle. This matches up with FBs arguments against Apogee being a wolf, ie "why would scum ever vote for scum".

3) The OOC spoiler does the exact same shading of the visions that gac spent the whole day doing.

I cannot stress enough how much this post looks like it's pairing bink and gac.


I mentally grouped the three animal images vs. the umbrella and steampunk. Any thoughts to that?

Very tentative unpairing for FF/Apogee. the way flat has grouped these, and given the ongoing discussions about how wolves would send images, I don't think flat_footed would put the umbrella image in the "probably town" pile at this point in the game. It's a weak unpairing mostly because it's hard to say how much attention flat_footed is paying.


The former, quite strongly.

This has been determined to be a lie.


My 3SC read is largely contingent on a response to that question, because I just can't parse the thought process that gets to that conclusion. Going to bump it so hopefully he sees.

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3SC? Explaination?

Unpairing with 3SC.

EDIT: This isn't finished yet, posted by mistake.

EDIT 2: And now I'm getting into the argument stuff, which I don't feel like rehashing.

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3SecondCultist
unpaired
unpaired
unpaired
unsure
unsure
paired?
paired
paired

Farmerbink
paired?
paired
paired

flat_footed
unpaired
unpaired?
unsure

Just looking at this, I'm kinda torn. There's as much reason to suspect 3SC as bink, but 3SC has far more reasons he's unpaired, while there's nothing from bink, gac, or Apogee that unpairs bink from the two scum. FF/gac/apogee don't have anything that I can say looks rather pairing, and while that's partially because FF has so little posted, the others would still probably have something if they were scumteam, you know?

What would make the difference for me is getting people's opinion on a particular 3SC thing. And snow laid out the issue with it better than me, so I'll quote her:



Pretty standard Xi. Also big town lean because I hold to Xi only expresses a desire to die when they are town.

In response to Xihirli being the fourth 3SC vote (incidentally this is really reinforcing my Xihirli townread, I can't see wolf!gac townreading a partner this confidently.)


Welp. Then fewer town points.

Also... Why is 3 second cultists the top wagon? Is there logic here or is this a meme wagon because they voted themselves?

Should have picked up on "Why is X a wagon" being wolfy earlier. Anyway I've seen wolves say this about both partners and townies so not particularly AI.


Votes? Did they cast multiple at that point?

I don't really see the self voting as inherently wolfy. My internal meta usually says it's a good sign. Though that's also usually with some of the players I know better.

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Day feels like it went so fast.

In response to my "do you think the 3SC votes are wolfy?" I'd say that question pretty clearly reads as votes on 3SC rather than votes made by 3SC (though obviously biased since I asked it, other opinions appreciated).

So why would gac make that interpretation, if it's not the natural one? Because they expect people to be calling 3SC wolfy because they know that 3SC is a wolf. Or, that's the first answer that springs to mind, anyway.

I might be confbiased here but it just fits. Would appreciate people checking to make sure I'm not being stupid here.

I'd like people's opinions on this 3SC/gac3 interaction.

I'm currently leaning towards Farmerbink, but I also feel that if bink is the last wolf, yesterday will have plenty of spew that y'all can spot.

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AV who is your mason partner.

One person does not a poll complete. Who wants the answer?! :3

[Let'sGetKraken]

While I'm townleaning Kraken based on gamestate, I don't really wanna make a statement about whether this says something scummy or towny about 3SC. This is largely because it's based on an out-of-game relationship that I have no context for. I will say that, if game talk occurred outside the thread, and in particular where the narrator can't see it, I'm not super-happy about that. In any case, I don't feel I can make any confident statement on how this leans.

Just to quickly clear something up (since I know you're not done writing) - when 3SC said my reaction was a little over the top, he was talking about the thread (my whole "oh god how many levels deep does this go" joke on day 1). IRL we discussed the rules a bit, talked about how we were excited for the game, and did a few "that's exactly what a wolf would say!" jokes but there was no actual analysis or discussion that took place out of the thread. I understand why you'd be concerned about that, but just wanted to put that to rest.