Yu-Gi-Oh! ZeXal! [Archive] - Giant in the Playground Forums

Xihirli

2023-04-24, 11:13 AM

Yu-Gi-Oh! ZeXal!

Stick together as one,
‘Cuz divided we’re none
Ready to go, we feel the flow

If I trip up today
You just wipe it away
All of my fears are gone erased

Let us tear down the walls
'Til the final night falls
The bonds of our souls can't be replaced

So don’t stand in our way
You know we ain’t afraid
This is our time
We’re in control

Let us fight together
Regret it never
Our dreams will be

Halfway to
Forever
Our light comes shining through

Reach down deep
Beat defeat
Do all that we can do
Halfway to
Forever
We've got nothing to lose
Keep breathing
Believing
Halfway to forever

Generations ago, Johnathan Goodwin’s great-grandfather took over the world and reshaped it in his own image as a Signer of the Earthbound Immortals and the Crimson Dragon. Most of the world is irradiated wasteland with the exceptions of Goodwin City and a few scattered and small villages.
A resident of Goodwin City, Yuma Tsukamo, received a golden key from his missing father. He found a creature within who now speaks to him: an embodiment of Astral World, a land of pure law at war with a chaotic world owned by the Seven Barian Emperors. Their fight has moved to earth, and now Yuma, his friends, and the only haven on earth for so many people have been thrust into the middle of it all.
This is the Barian Invasion.

Basic Game Play Overview
(Largely taken from AvatarVecna (https://forums.giantitp.com/showthread.php?607501) and altered to fit this game.)

The game is played in turns that consist of six different phases.
There's a draw phase, during which time player’s powers refresh and I, the narrator, resolve the resolution of the powers at the previous end phase. The Draw Phase is skipped during the first turn.
In the same post, the Standby Phase will occur. Team ZeXal powers will resolve in the Standby Phase while Barian powers will resolve in the End Phase.
There is a Main Phase 1, identical to what in other games is called the Day Phase. During this phase, votes are cast on which players shall be Destroyed. Votes are done in red text. You may change your vote if you wish, in which case, you should edit your previous post and strike-through your previous vote. Generally, a Destroyed Player is Removed from the game, and their role shall be revealed.
In the Battle Phase, the player with the most votes is Destroyed.
Then, in Main Phase 2, similar to the more common werewolf game’s Night Phase, power usage is declared, and will resolve, generally, in either the Standby Phase or the Endphase.
Endphase. Barian powers will resolve, and resolutions will appear in the same post as the next day’s Draw Phase, Standby Phase, and start of Main Phase One.

The game ends when either all Barians have been Destroyed, or victory for the Dark Signers becomes inevitable. As per the rules of Yu-Gi-Oh!, adapted into this team game, surrender by consensus within either team is allowed at any time.

Team ZeXal Roles

Yuma forms an inseparable bond with all those he duels, and it is felt strongest with team ZeXal.

ZeXal – Lovers
When two distant souls become one, the power of ZeXal is revealed.
Bonded by complete trust in one another, Yuma and Astral work together to save both their worlds from the Barian threat… but if one of them is Destroyed, so is the other.
Yuma Tsukomo – The Heart: Anyone can be a friend, even the Barians, though it will break your heart to lose a single one you always double down on your bond with those you care about.
Double or Nothing
During your Main Phase 2: Target 1 player. Starting the next standby phase, that Player becomes one of the Lovers with you and Astral. Like your bond, if any of you are Destroyed, all of you are. This can be active on any number of Players.

Astral – The Mind: You do not trust like Yuma, but when he lets others in you make the best of it and make sure everyone’s on the same page.
Number 39: Utopia
During your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Lover. In the next standby phase, that Lover may, if they wish, change their win condition to match yours and Yuma’s. They will make this decision in the Lover chat.

Kite – the Light: Your father, Doctor Faker, made a pact with the Barians that put yourself and your brother at risk and you’ve been paying for it your whole life. This war is personal for you.
Galaxy-Eyes Photon Dragon:
On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Player. Starting in the next Standby Phase, if you ever vote for that Player, they cannot activate any abilit(ies) on the next Main Phase 2. A maximum of 3 Player(s) can have this effect at once.

Tori – Companion: You’ve always believed in Yuma… well, okay, he used to be a really bad duelist, but with Astral he’s almost okay!
Fairy Cheer Girl
On your Main Phase Two: Target 1 Player. Any effects they activate this same Main Phase are boosted.

Bronk Stone – The Load
Your role in the show seems to be to complain a lot, be rude to people, never be right, and get rescued by Yuma. I’m sure you’ll help out. Eventually.
Tin Archduke
On your Main Phase 2: Target one Player. Change that Player’s Battle Position.

Anna Kaboom – The Bomb:
You like blowing things up, and have a thing for Yuma.
Superdreadnought Rail Cannon Gustav Max: On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 player. Starting on your next standby phase, they are on a 3-turn timer. If you do not choose a new target before 3 turns pass, that Player is Destroyed.

Flip – The Evil Friend: You know how every friend group has that one friend who’s just evil? No. Well, he’ll show you the Flip side.
Baby Tiragon: On your Main Phase 2: State one role from the game list. On the next Main Phase One, whatever your vote is, it will instead count as one for the stated role.

Dextra – The Referee: You were present when Dr. Faker and Quinton were putting Kite through torture to mold him into a weapon. You were the only one who saw that he was a kid. And now you’re the only adult looking out for his safety.
Photon Papilloperative
During your Main Phase 2: Target 1 player. Starting the next Standby Phase, that Player can EITHER make a vote on their Main Phase One OR use their special ability on their Main Phase 2, not both. This effect can be active on only one Player at a time.

Nistro: The Hothead
You worked for Johnathan Goodwin until learning of what he was hiring Dr. Faker to do. Now the Barians are here and you have to clean up the pieces.
Number 54: Lion Heart During your Main Phase 2: Target 1 player.
Starting in the next Standby Phase, the next time that Player would be Destroyed, their Destruction is delayed by one phase, so they will still be able to vote OR use their special ability one last time. This can be active on only 2 Players at a time.

Kari Tsukomo – The Sister: When your parents disappeared, you became the breadwinner of the family. Now you’re a reporter, but you’ve had to go to pretty tough crowds to stay alive. All you have left of your more criminal days is one card from your ex.
Number 7: Lucky Straight
On your main phase 2: You can roll a die. On a 1 or 2, your next vote is counted once. On a 3 or 4, your next vote is counted twice. On a 5 or 6, your next vote is counted 3 times.

Byron – the Redeemed: After you were betrayed by Dr. Faker, you went on a rampage of revenge that swept up both your own children and Dr. Faker’s. You really hurt a lot of people… but now you’re here to stop the Barians.
Number 69: Heraldry Crest
On your Main Phase 2: You can Target 1 Player. Starting on the next Standby Phase, your role name and ability are replaced with that Player’s. After you use their ability once, you swap back to Number 69: Heraldry Crest.

Quinton – the Teacher: You taught Kite how to duel… And then you were swept up in your father’s quest for revenge. But that’s all in the past now. The barians are in the present.
Number 9: Dyson Sphere
On your Main Phase 2: You can choose to either have the votes against you on the next Main Phase One reduced by one, OR be able to make one additional vote in the next Main Phase 1, but this additional vote must be in orange text and be a different target from your standard vote.
NOTE: Yes, of course you may fake having this power.

Quattro – the Edgy Teenager: When your father went off the deep end, you followed him right off of it. You hurt people and laughed while doing it. Something dark was awakened in you and you’re still fighting to repress it.
Number 15: Gimmick Puppet Giant Grinder On your Main Phase 2: Target one Player. Declare one Role Name, and if it matches that Player, in the next Standby Phase, Destroy them.

Trey – The Baby: Your father hurt you, but you never lost sight of your heart. Yuma is a close friend, and you will help him against the Barians.
Number 6: Chronomaly Atlandis On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Destroyed Player. Copy their ability and perform targeting. If copying a Barian ability, choose their "Number" power and resolve it in the Standby Phase.

Kathy Katherine – the… Cat: You are a cat-human hybrid. I don’t know either, it’s never explained.
Twin Tail Cat Lady: On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Player. During the next Standby Phase, your army of cats tell you who they targeted on that same Main Phase 2.

Barian Roles

It is unknown which of the seven Barian Emperors unleashed the unpredictable and deceitful Barian deity Don Thousand, but it hardly matters now. It is time to conquer earth.

Nash – The Seventh
Once you believed yourself to be the human Reginald "Shark" Castle, but your Barian memories have been awakened to you. You are the leader of the Seven Barian Emperors, and your world is dying due to constant war with Astral World. Your only hope is to make a new home.
Number 101: Silent Honor ARK On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Player. Attach them to yourself as Xyz Material. Player(s) attached as Xyz material may continue playing, but unbeknownst to they lose one vote, and your vote is counted one additional time for each material attached.
Rank-Up Magic: The Seventh One in the Endphase, if you have been Destroyed this turn and have any Xyz Material attached, detach all materials from yourself and resummon yourself from the graveyard.

Dumon – The Right Hand
Once you were the leader of the Barian Emperors, but you have handed the reigns back over to Nash.
Number 102: Star Seraph Sentry
On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Player. Randomize that Player’s Target next turn.
Rank-Up Magic: Chaos Force
Effects that target you have a 50% chance to hit another random target instead.

Marin – The Empress
Nash’s sister in a past life, Reginald’s sister Rio in this one, you stand by your people in this world or the next. Sometimes that means you agree with your brother, sometimes…
Number 103: Ragnazero
On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Player.
Regardless of that Player’s ability, they will receive the feedback "no result" after the next end phase.
Rank-Up Magic: Barian’s Force If you are Destroyed in battle, one random person who voted for you is also destroyed.

Vector – The Devil
Once trusted by Yuma as Ray Shadows, you’ve gotten in his head and learned a lot about him and his friends. You’ve often butted heads with Nash, but the Barians must put forward a united front.
Number 104: Masquerade
On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Player.
On the next End Phase, learn their role.
Rank-Up Magic: Limited Barian’s Force At the start of the duel, learn any role(s) not in play.

Alito – The Lancer
You’ve always been a loner, and you prefer to handle things on your own to working as a team. Still, what Nash says goes…
Number 105: Battlin’ Boxer Star Cestus
On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Player and roll a die. On a 6, that Player is Destroyed.
Rank-Up Magic: Quick Chaos Once per duel, if you would be destroyed you instead lose all of your special abilities.

Girag – The Big Guy
More a puncher than a thinker, you pretty much do what you’re told. Maybe just by Nash.
Number 106: Giant Red Hand
On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Player.
This end phase, cancel out their next special ability.
Rank-Up Magic: Brute Force You always win ties.

Mizar – The Luminous
A prideful duelist and master of the Galaxy–Eyes, you’re not in this for the barians but to prove yourself the true wielder of the cards used only by yourself and Kite.
Number 107: Galaxy-Eyes Tachyon Dragon
On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Barian Emperor.
This endphase, that Barian Emperor’s abilities cannot be prevented in any way.
Rank-Up Magic: Photon’s Force When you are Destroyed, you can attach yourself to Nash as material instead. You are Destroyed if you’re ever detached.

Neutral Roles

Don Thousand – Barian Deity: The long-ago ruler of Barian World who corrupted humans into becoming the Barian Emperors. You’re feeding off the conflict, getting stronger every turn as your puppets fight for you. You are secretly plotting with one of the Barian Emperors.
Chaos Number 1000: Numerounius Your votes count as 1000, but only when 4 or more people vote for you. When you are destroyed by battle (and ONLY by battle), every Barian (wherever they are) can freely change their alignment . If they join team ZeXal, all players win, and you lose.

Rank-Up Magic: Numeron Force
Every Main Phase Two, as long as you did not vote this turn, you may retroactively rewrite any one ability using the Numeron Code. Your rewrite lasts either until the next turn, or until somebody notices, whichever comes last.

Player list:
Illven
CaoimhinTheCape
Snowblaze
JeenLeen
Lady Serpentine
BookWombat
Bladescape
BatCatHat
Persolus
Caedorus
flat_footed
Let’sGetKraken
AvatarVecna
Allando

Player
Role
Team

flat_footed
Kite
Team ZeXal

BatCatHat
Astral
Team ZeXal

CaoimhinTheCape
Nash
Barian

LetsGetKraken
Yuma
Team ZeXal

AvatarVecna
Anna Kaboom
Team ZeXal

Snowblaze
Nistro
Team ZeXal

Illven
Kathy Katherine
Team ZeXal

Bladescape
Trey
Team ZeXal

Persolus
Quattro
Team ZeXal

JeenLeen
Vector
Barian

BookWombat
Dextra
Team ZeXal

Lady Serpentine
Kari Tsukomo
Team ZeXal

Caedorus
Byron
Team ZeXal

Allando
Marin
Barian

Xihirli
Don Thousand
Don Thousand

Standby Phase

The Dark version of Astral, Number 96: Dark Mist laughs even as he falls apart, collapsing into his own card.
"You've bested the darkness within for now, Yuma! Astral! But remember what you gave up to save him, Yuma! Remember that as long as you cling to what now belongs to fate, I will be waiting to reemerge as your collector!" And laughing, he falls into his trading card and is pulled back into Yuma's Extra Deck.

Astral, drained from the duel against his dark mirror, flickers. "Yuma... I must rest..." and he fades into the key around Yuma's neck.
Yuma falls to one knee, panting.
What I gave up... I don't even know what it is! The Door demanded "that which means the most to you," but I haven't lost anything since I saved Astral from Kite.

He looks up as the sky grows red. Looking down from the top of one of Mr. Goodwin’s copious warehouses full of dangerous chemicals, seven figures look down at him. This is Yuma’s first time seeing all seven Barian Emperors… including Reginald “Shark” Castle, once his best friend and now his mortal enemy.

At first they are in their human forms… then full barian battle morph. A car, Kari in the driver’s seat, pulls up to him. “Get in, Yuma!”
“Kari, what…”
Tori opens up the door into the back of the car and makes room. “Is Astral out?”
“N-no, but what’s happening?”
“Get in!”
Yuma sits down and the car sped away.
“Whoa, Kari! I haven’t even put on my seatbelt!”
“We need to give Astral time to recover before the Barians duel you! Don’t worry, we have some people buying you time.”
“B-but…” Yuma looks outside at the growing redness in the sky, fearing for his friends.

Nash narrows his eyes as the car begins speeding away. “After them, Barians!”
“I wouldn’t!” A girl with hot pink hair riding on a flying cannon rockets into view. “You’ll have to get past me, first!”
Nash nods to her. “Girag.”
The largest of the Barian Emperors snaps out his duel disk and faces Anna.
“The rest, with… oh, NOW what?”
Flying in on red barian energy, the shrunken form of Byron and his not-shrunken sons Trey and Quattro came into view, before the seven Barian Emperors.
“Quattro…” Nash says in hate.
“Do not lose sight of your quarry,” Dumon reminds the leader of the Barians.
“I’ll trust you to continue the chase,” Nash says. “Vector, Alito, with me. Mizar, Marin, Dumon: After Yuma.”
Mizar looks into the sky. “I must go.”
“What!?”
“There are greater callings than conquest. Good day.” Mizar vanishes in light.  “…Marin, make certain that Mizar doesn’t get himself killed. Dumon, I trust you to take down Yuma.”
“Yes, Sire.”

Kite is in his father’s laboratory. The portal they had used to send Yuma to Astral World is being refitted before him, ready to send him to the location of the secret to the Numeron Code.  It’s on the moon.  He fits himself with his suit, reinforced to survive even the most dangerous duels.
“It’s nearly ready, Kite,” Quinton says. “Be sure to be ready. We have no idea how quickly the Barians will–“
The yellow-armored Barian, Mizar, is standing before them.
“I am here to prove that I am the undisputed master of all Galaxy-Eyes.”
Marin, the blue-armored barian, is close behind.
“For your petty ego, you would delay our conquest?”
“It will only be delayed a moment if you handle the spare.”
Rolling her eyes, Marin extends her duel disk, a blue line forming between herself and Quinton.  “We are now locked in a duel, and the victor shall claim the soul of the other.”
“Kite! Run into the device NOW!” Dr. Faker shouts over the loudspeaker.
Kite leaps into the teleporter and vanishes.
Mizar follows behind.

Main Phase One

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-24, 11:23 AM

AvatarVecna

2023-04-24, 11:28 AM

Good news everybody, I'm not the alpha. Batcathat is!

Snowblaze

2023-04-24, 11:35 AM

Well, even though I'm not on the player list I am in fact in this game (think you have Cultist instead of me in that roster).

Snowblaze, as is traditional. She's had her town game and now she's back to being a wolf!
My streak of town games continues, I'm afraid.

...knowing my luck it'll break right about when my Champs game starts.

Let'sGetKraken, because OMGUS and because I can't be bothered to put actual thought into choosing a vote.

Good news everybody, I'm not the alpha. Batcathat is!

AV is a non-alpha wolf bussing, then.

(This is a joke.)

(Mostly. Shut up, tinfoil voice.)

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-24, 11:42 AM

Let'sGetKraken, because OMGUS and because I can't be bothered to put actual thought into choosing a vote.

Ah, see, you've voted for someone who isn't on the list of players, and therefore it doesn't count.

(Yes I intend to milk this for all it's worth until Xihirli fixes it)

Allando

2023-04-24, 11:43 AM

Xihirli, who is obviously the deity.

Persolus

2023-04-24, 11:47 AM

Hello everyone! I'm Persolus and think that you shouldn't kill me first round!

Since I have a d14, might as well use it: Allando, how's it going?

Caedorus

2023-04-24, 11:49 AM

Xihirli, who is obviously the deity.
This day or another
I will vote my brother
for even as Allando dies
all will hear my laughing cries

flat_footed

2023-04-24, 11:49 AM

Anyone who's late for registration will be disqualified. Mokuba, make sure Bladescape's late.

Allando

2023-04-24, 12:02 PM

This day or another
I will vote my brother
for even as Allando dies
all will hear my laughing cries

Oh, my brother,
Must we bother
To wait 'till end of day
To shoo Caedorus away?
I can rhyme as well, you know.

Book Wombat

2023-04-24, 12:06 PM

A three, for CaoimhinTheCape!

Xihirli

2023-04-24, 12:24 PM

I had a few changes to make to the powers due to feedback, they are now in and bolded.

Batcathat

2023-04-24, 12:48 PM

Alright, here we go again. Let's start with Illven, for (if I remember correctly) plotting my brutal murder in my last game.

AvatarVecna

2023-04-24, 01:50 PM

Good news everybody, I'm not the alpha. Batcathat is!

Incidentally this is probably my subtlest claim ever.

Batcathat

2023-04-24, 01:58 PM

Incidentally this is probably my subtlest claim ever.

I must admit you're making me curious about what the claim is (but claiming anything this early seems weird, so no pressure). While I'm not the alpha or any other flavour of wolf (but of course I would say that), falsely accusing me seems a little short-sighted as a wolf play. I also don't think you'd reveal your information this early if you honestly thought I was a wolf, so I'm not sure what that leaves.

You actually claiming something completely different that's too subtle for me to pick up on? Yeah, that seems like the most likely option. :smalltongue:

Caedorus

2023-04-24, 02:11 PM

I must admit you're making me curious about what the claim is (but claiming anything this early seems weird, so no pressure). While I'm not the alpha or any other flavour of wolf (but of course I would say that), falsely accusing me seems a little short-sighted as a wolf play. I also don't think you'd reveal your information this early if you honestly thought I was a wolf, so I'm not sure what that leaves.

You actually claiming something completely different that's too subtle for me to pick up on? Yeah, that seems like the most likely option. :smalltongue:
The Fool Too short

AvatarVecna

2023-04-24, 02:12 PM

Caedorus

2023-04-24, 02:17 PM

Find the triple. :smallwink:

- - - Updated - - -

https://i.imgflip.com/3enxcp.png?a467160

Nooo, paranoia, I know she didn't say she wasn't any wolf, not just not the alpha, shut up, she isn't the third role from the top (probs), and the fact that it's post three is probably not the point

Illven

2023-04-24, 02:47 PM

My name is Heather Harrington and my sacred luck magic calls Caedorus to the stand.

JeenLeen

2023-04-24, 03:02 PM

AvatarVecna

2023-04-24, 03:09 PM

Lots of votes, but none for AvatarVecna yet. That seems unusual enough that I'd guess some folk have extra reason not to vote her.
Stating she made a subtle claim, thus giving folk a disincentive to vote for her... good wolf move for someone who usually draws heat just by existing. I gamble she didn't actually hint a claim, but is just saying she did.

If anyone has picked up on her clue and wants me to move my vote, speak up and I'll move it.
To be clear, I mean "speak up" in that you found her claim and believe it (or at least have no strong reason to disbelieve it). Not speak up by saying what her claim actually is.

The point of the claim's subtlety isn't to let people pick up on it now, it's so that I can point to it later as something very concrete that I've been setting up since literally my first post, without people really being able to do more than blindly guess until I tell them the trick. You don't have anything to worry about.

This post is also a hint.

Snowblaze

2023-04-24, 03:59 PM

Lots of votes, but none for AvatarVecna yet. That seems unusual enough that I'd guess some folk have extra reason not to vote her.
Stating she made a subtle claim, thus giving folk a disincentive to vote for her... good wolf move for someone who usually draws heat just by existing. I gamble she didn't actually hint a claim, but is just saying she did.

If anyone has picked up on her clue and wants me to move my vote, speak up and I'll move it.
To be clear, I mean "speak up" in that you found her claim and believe it (or at least have no strong reason to disbelieve it). Not speak up by saying what her claim actually is.

I haven't spotted the claim, but also I haven't particularly been looking for it.

I don't think it's wolfy, though.

If they're not hinting and just saying they did... D3/4/5, AV is alive and we have no reason to clear them, "So, AV, what have you been hinting at?" awkward silence "Okay, AV is a lying wolf, let's kill them".

So the hint is real regardless of their alignment. There are worlds where they're a wolf seeding a fakeclaim early, yes, but I don't see a particular reason to think we're living in them beyond "it's AV" which is not a valid reason.

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-24, 04:06 PM

I haven't spotted the claim, but also I haven't particularly been looking for it.

I don't think it's wolfy, though.

If they're not hinting and just saying they did... D3/4/5, AV is alive and we have no reason to clear them, "So, AV, what have you been hinting at?" awkward silence "Okay, AV is a lying wolf, let's kill them".

So the hint is real regardless of their alignment. There are worlds where they're a wolf seeding a fakeclaim early, yes, but I don't see a particular reason to think we're living in them beyond "it's AV" which is not a valid reason.

I do generally agree with this, but the advantage of "hinting" like this is you get to see a number of flips and can better avoid a counterclaim while still getting towncred for nothing.

I'm not saying to vote AV but it is still a solid move from wolves, especially when it is this vague. I think it is firmly NAI and very AV in general.

Caedorus

2023-04-24, 04:14 PM

Snowblaze

2023-04-24, 04:17 PM

I do generally agree with this, but the advantage of "hinting" like this is you get to see a number of flips and can better avoid a counterclaim while still getting towncred for nothing.

I'm not saying to vote AV but it is still a solid move from wolves, especially when it is this vague. I think it is firmly NAI and very AV in general.

I thought BCH was supposed to be the hedgy one?

Though also what I said earlier relies on wolf!AV picking a particular fakeclaim immediately since they're softing it now apparently.

Also if wolves have Vector they already know which roles aren't in play. (Look, I actually read the setup! Or, well, half-remembered that existing and went back to check it.)

- - - Updated - - -

Can't really complain, I've dropped a quite solid hint myself
Let the WIFOM begin
Doesn't pointing out that you're softing something... kind of defeats the object of softing something?

bladescape

2023-04-24, 04:37 PM

This is a soft.

Snowblaze

2023-04-24, 04:45 PM

This is a soft.

Hey, I think bladescape is softing "cryptic bastard", everyone!

I hardclaim not a cryptic bastard, and softclaim "should be working or sleeping rn".

Batcathat

2023-04-24, 04:49 PM

Hey, I think bladescape is softing "cryptic bastard", everyone!

I hardclaim not a cryptic bastard, and softclaim "should be working or sleeping rn".

I claim hedgy paranoiac. Or maybe I don't?

Caedorus

2023-04-24, 04:54 PM

Hey, I think bladescape is softing "cryptic bastard", everyone!

I hardclaim not a cryptic bastard, and softclaim "should be working or sleeping rn".
"softclaim"?

- - - Updated - - -

Why does the Re: keep turning into "just kidding"?

Illven

2023-04-24, 04:56 PM

I think I have an idea as to the claim.

That is all I'll say for now.

Allando

2023-04-24, 05:35 PM

AV's role is not going to be outed until they want it to be. Also, distressing that Caedorus, the one usually so against massclaiming, is already dropping hints. Maybe them saying they have dropped a hint is their clue and they're the two lovers? Makes no sense to claim that since if one of them dies the other dies as well, so there's no oppertunity for "I'm an innocent townie and my mason just died" stuff.
So, AV, Caedorus, are you trying a very bold wolf play but had you accidentally missed that in the lovers' role description? Or what's going on?

Illven

2023-04-24, 05:59 PM

There is an approx zero percent chance that vecna would mistake lovers and masons.

bladescape

2023-04-24, 06:18 PM

There is an approximate 0% chance that this is a stupid wolf play.

CaoimhinTheCape

2023-04-24, 07:07 PM

Hoo boy, it's been a while. I guess I'll throw a Vote: Book Wombat out there cause why not. Is there any new meta I should be aware of that changed since I last played?

Also want to ask about roles...

Bronk Stone – The Load
Your role in the show seems to be to complain a lot, be rude to people, never be right, and get rescued by Yuma. I’m sure you’ll help out. Eventually.
Tin Archduke
On your Main Phase 2: Target one Player. Change that Player’s Battle Position.

Neutral Roles

Don Thousand – Barian Deity: ??????? ?????? ruler of Barian World. ????? ?????? secretly ?????? ?????? with one of the Barian Emperors. ?????? ???? ???? Numeron Code.
Chaos Number 1000: Numerounius ???? ?????? ????? ????? ???? ???? all players ??? ???? ??? lose.

Rank-Up Magic: Numeron Force
????? ????? rewrite ????? ??????? numeron ?????? ??????

I saw there was basically a non-answer in the recruitment thread about "Battle Position". Does this mean anything to anyone? The fact that he's called "the Load" makes me think it doesn't do anything but I might just not know something.

And are we worried about the Neutral being in the game at all? Is 14 roles too small for a 3P?

Vote Count
Snowblaze (1): LetsGetKraken,
BatCatHat (1): AvatarVecna,
LetsGetKraken (1): Snowblaze
Allondo (1): Persolus, Caedorus,
Bladescape (1): flat_footed
Caedorus (2): Allondo, Illven
CaoimhinTheCape (1): BookWombat
Illven (1): BatCatHat,
AvatarVecna (1): JeenLeen
BookWombat (1): CaoimhinTheCape
No Vote: Lady Serpentine, Bladescape

bladescape

2023-04-24, 08:13 PM

This is a vague statement about intent and to show you that I'm definitely town because I'm putting work into the game.

AvatarVecna

2023-04-24, 08:37 PM

There is an approx zero percent chance that vecna would mistake lovers and masons.

You underestimate my ability to play without reading the setup.

Snowblaze

2023-04-25, 12:42 AM

There is an approximate 0% chance that this is a stupid wolf play.

Agreed, hidden soft and all.

...okay, fine, Caedorus: the "Just Kidding" header came from bladescape editing it to soft that he wasn't actually softing anything, and then my message being a reply to his and yours to mine.

Anyway, general request to stop rolefishing and speculating about the nature of softs.

Also Caoimhin's vote count has made me think we should try and get wagons going but I'm actually mildly suspicious of Kraken so I won't switch. (Though insert obligatory "I'm bad at reading Kraken" here.)

Batcathat

2023-04-25, 01:16 AM

Also Caoimhin's vote count has made me think we should try and get wagons going but I'm actually mildly suspicious of Kraken so I won't switch. (Though insert obligatory "I'm bad at reading Kraken" here.)

Yeah, wagons sounds good and I don't mind switching my vote, but I'm not sure where. Allando or Caedorus seems like the obvious choice, but aside from Caedorus' maybe-hint there's not a lot to go on. I guess I could see a wolfy Caedorus seeing a towny AV vaugly hint something and figure it would be smart to do the same thing, but I don't know. (So yes, I'm still the hedgiest one in all the land).

- - - Updated - - -

What the hell, it's better than a placeholder/revenge vote. Caedorus.

bladescape

2023-04-25, 07:54 AM

Snowblaze hmmm

JeenLeen

2023-04-25, 08:05 AM

The point of the claim's subtlety isn't to let people pick up on it now, it's so that I can point to it later as something very concrete that I've been setting up since literally my first post, without people really being able to do more than blindly guess until I tell them the trick. You don't have anything to worry about.

This post is also a hint.

I'll buy that for now.
I was mostly curious to see who might defend you, in case you flip wolf after all. I didn't actually think a strong wagon would start on you.

The fruit:

I haven't spotted the claim, but also I haven't particularly been looking for it.

I don't think it's wolfy, though.

If they're not hinting and just saying they did... D3/4/5, AV is alive and we have no reason to clear them, "So, AV, what have you been hinting at?" awkward silence "Okay, AV is a lying wolf, let's kill them".

So the hint is real regardless of their alignment. There are worlds where they're a wolf seeding a fakeclaim early, yes, but I don't see a particular reason to think we're living in them beyond "it's AV" which is not a valid reason.

I do generally agree with this, but the advantage of "hinting" like this is you get to see a number of flips and can better avoid a counterclaim while still getting towncred for nothing.

I'm not saying to vote AV but it is still a solid move from wolves, especially when it is this vague. I think it is firmly NAI and very AV in general.

I thought BCH was supposed to be the hedgy one?

Though also what I said earlier relies on wolf!AV picking a particular fakeclaim immediately since they're softing it now apparently.

Also if wolves have Vector they already know which roles aren't in play. (Look, I actually read the setup! Or, well, half-remembered that existing and went back to check it.)

I think I have an idea as to the claim.

That is all I'll say for now.

You underestimate my ability to play without reading the setup.

Still, something about this line sits uneasily with me. But I'm willing to see it as playful banter.

Hoo boy, it's been a while. I guess I'll throw a Vote: Book Wombat out there cause why not. Is there any new meta I should be aware of that changed since I last played?

Also want to ask about roles...

I saw there was basically a non-answer in the recruitment thread about "Battle Position". Does this mean anything to anyone? The fact that he's called "the Load" makes me think it doesn't do anything but I might just not know something.

And are we worried about the Neutral being in the game at all? Is 14 roles too small for a 3P?

Regarding Battle Position, I started writing up a theory based on how the card game worked at least ten years ago, but then realized that while sharing that might help the town figure out this power, the town knowing how it works probably isn't helpful. I presume that player knows how his own power works. So speculation likely just helps the wolves.

I definitely understand the temptation to delve into mechanics discussions when rules are unclear, but let's be mindful of when speculation might help the wolves.

I think discussing possible number of wolves and the neutral existing is potentially helpful. I think Xi would want to include the neutral for the fun/chaos it likely adds, but that's just a metagaming reason. Xi got annoyed one game when we almost solved it by massclaiming, and she said that if we continued she'd tell the wolves some safe fakeclaims; that makes me think it's likely the wolf who knows inactive roles is in the game.
I find the number of wolves this game hard to get a strong sense of since the wolf powers have some revenge powers and "does not die easily" powers.

Also Caoimhin's vote count has made me think we should try and get wagons going but I'm actually mildly suspicious of Kraken so I won't switch. (Though insert obligatory "I'm bad at reading Kraken" here.)

Snowblaze hmmm

I don't like voting someone for "hedgey" language that is really just noting some possibilities we don't have any way of knowing which is true. I'll join the Snowblaze for now.

Snowblaze

2023-04-25, 09:01 AM

Good news: stuff has finally happened. Bad news: that stuff is people voting me.

Snowblaze hmmm

Any chance of an explanation?

Jeen, will explain my Kraken suspicion properly in a second.

- - - Updated - - -

So, yeah, "hedgy" wasn't really the main reason I was suspicious of this post.
I do generally agree with this, but the advantage of "hinting" like this is you get to see a number of flips and can better avoid a counterclaim while still getting towncred for nothing.

I'm not saying to vote AV but it is still a solid move from wolves, especially when it is this vague. I think it is firmly NAI and very AV in general.
My post this is responding to had an implied townlean on AV, I believe. This pings me as a) trying to shut down that townlean (which would imply wolf not wanting me to clear AV and so unpairs Kraken/AV imo) and b) denying responsibility with the "I'm not saying to vote AV".

But also it's early day one, very little has happened and I have nothing stronger to go on than this.

I don't like voting someone for "hedgey" language that is really just noting some possibilities we don't have any way of knowing which is true. I'll join the Snowblaze for now.
Eh, kind of disagree with the characterisation of that post, it's nor just setting out a list of possibilities it's setting out the particular possibility of AV being a wolf doing this.

Other reads so far: I do in fact have a townlean on AV, and also to a lesser extent Caedorus and BCH. bladescape's me vote is Fine(TM) pending explanation, not that I'm going to get one.

(Also I have deadlines coming up, am going out this evening and have discovered Champs specchat which between them are leaving me with less time than I'd like for this game.)

Thoughts on my Kraken suspicion and Jeen's suspicion of my Kraken suspicion, anyone?

bladescape

2023-04-25, 10:53 AM

Snowblaze

2023-04-25, 12:21 PM

BookWombat

Decided we can vote out Snow a later day.

Or I can change my mind on her again cause that always works well. :smalltongue:

- - - Updated - - -

Kraken suspicion is ~fine~

But also not that wolfy coming from him imo.

Do you have any better ideas than Kraken? (Preferably also not me.)

That's open to anyone with actual wolfreads.

Also I just realised I have zero idea what vote movements have looked like so...

Caedorus 3: Allando, Illven, Batcathat
Allando 2: Persolus, Caedorus
Book Wombat 2: CaoimhinTheCape, bladescape
Snowblaze 2: Let'sGetKraken, JeenLeen
Let'sGetKraken 1: Snowblaze
bladescape 1: flat_footed
Batcathat 1: AvatarVecna
CaoimhinTheCape 1: Book Wombat

Not voting: Lady Serpentine

Am I missing someone?

Allando

2023-04-25, 03:41 PM

My half-joking vote on Caedorus seems to have become a wagon. Are we all fine eliminating him?
I need to go check for people's reasoning behind other votes.

Caedorus

2023-04-25, 03:54 PM

Was not expecting to come back to being top wagon. Also wasn't expecting to have my OMGUS-vote stick to the second wagon, although a two-vote wagon is barely a wagon at all.
Disagree on the Snow sus, her play seemed NAI (that is, solving af)
I wasn't "advertising roleclaiming", faaar from it; all I was doing was observing I shouldn't wolfread AV for dropping a hint when I had done the same.
My main scumreads would be everyone who hasn't posted yet.

- - - Updated - - -

By lack of anyone who hasn't posted, I look at those who have but one post: flat, book, pers and Caoimhin. Ignoring Book Wombat because he always Lurks. of these (assuming Snow's votecount is correct), Caoimhin is the only one with a vote.
Voting Persolus because I remember them being more active.

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-25, 04:10 PM

So, Snowblaze - to be clear, you're saying this (which is pointing out that something is NAI) is hedgy, right?

I do generally agree with this, but the advantage of "hinting" like this is you get to see a number of flips and can better avoid a counterclaim while still getting towncred for nothing.

I'm not saying to vote AV but it is still a solid move from wolves, especially when it is this vague. I think it is firmly NAI and very AV in general.

...but all of this isn't?

Agreed, hidden soft and all.

Also Caoimhin's vote count has made me think we should try and get wagons going but I'm actually mildly suspicious of Kraken so I won't switch. (Though insert obligatory "I'm bad at reading Kraken" here.)

So, yeah, "hedgy" wasn't really the main reason I was suspicious of this post.
My post this is responding to had an implied townlean on AV, I believe. This pings me as a) trying to shut down that townlean (which would imply wolf not wanting me to clear AV and so unpairs Kraken/AV imo) and b) denying responsibility with the "I'm not saying to vote AV".

But also it's early day one, very little has happened and I have nothing stronger to go on than this.

Do you have any better ideas than Kraken? (Preferably also not me.)

That's open to anyone with actual wolfreads.

Also I just realised I have zero idea what vote movements have looked like so...

Caedorus 3: Allando, Illven, Batcathat
Allando 2: Persolus, Caedorus
Book Wombat 2: CaoimhinTheCape, bladescape
Snowblaze 2: Let'sGetKraken, JeenLeen
Let'sGetKraken 1: Snowblaze
bladescape 1: flat_footed
Batcathat 1: AvatarVecna
CaoimhinTheCape 1: Book Wombat

Not voting: Lady Serpentine

Am I missing someone?

Also to respond to the "I'm not saying to vote AV" thing - I specifically pointed out that it was NAI. That is why I don't think it was worth voting for AV, not because of any hedgyness. I just don't think we're seen anything AI from AV so far.

My vote on Snow was originally just a joke (traditional enmity and all that) but I will stay right where I am for now. I don't think Snow is the kind of wolf that would go for such a blatant pairing with AV, which I think unpairs them, but this is a whole lot of suspicion over a who lot of nothing. That, with the votecounts and the "hey please someone else suggest a wagon I can jump on" is giving me bad gut feels. And that I am not hedging about :smalltongue:

CaoimhinTheCape

2023-04-25, 05:04 PM

Snow, your most recent votecount looks good to me.

Thoughts on my Kraken suspicion and Jeen's suspicion of my Kraken suspicion, anyone?

I don't buy the suspicion on Kracken. If anything, that post feels like it's shutting down a possible AV wagon regardless of what was before it so unless Kracken/AV are both Wolves I don't see any case to build around it.

I'm not convinced 100% convinced that Snow is a Wolf based on that Kracken suspicion but I'm fine enough with having pressure on Snow. Actually, I really like Kracken's post directly above this, that's swaying me more than Jeen's post was.

On that note, I'm also eyeing the Caedorus "wagon". Which is basically two random votes plus this post from BatCatHat:

Yeah, wagons sounds good and I don't mind switching my vote, but I'm not sure where. Allando or Caedorus seems like the obvious choice, but aside from Caedorus' maybe-hint there's not a lot to go on. I guess I could see a wolfy Caedorus seeing a towny AV vaugly hint something and figure it would be smart to do the same thing, but I don't know. (So yes, I'm still the hedgiest one in all the land).

- - - Updated - - -

What the hell, it's better than a placeholder/revenge vote. Caedorus.

I'm not convinced that a Wolf would see someone else give a hint and then decide to draw attention to themselves and claim the same thing. Maybe I just don't know Caedorus and they would do that but it feels like a weird reason to make someone the lead wagon BatCatHat

Side note: Lady Serpentine is listed as a player and I believe hasn't posted yet.

Vote Count
Snowblaze (2): LetsGetKraken, JeenLeen
BatCatHat (2): AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape
LetsGetKraken (1): Snowblaze
Allondo (1): Persolus
Bladescape (1): flat_footed
Caedorus (3): Allondo, Illven, BatCatHat
CaoimhinTheCape (1): BookWombat
BookWombat (1): Bladescape
Persolus (1): Caedorus
No Vote: LadySerpentine

Allando

2023-04-25, 05:26 PM

Was not expecting to come back to being top wagon. Also wasn't expecting to have my OMGUS-vote stick to the second wagon, although a two-vote wagon is barely a wagon at all.
Disagree on the Snow sus, her play seemed NAI (that is, solving af)
I wasn't "advertising roleclaiming", faaar from it; all I was doing was observing I shouldn't wolfread AV for dropping a hint when I had done the same.
My main scumreads would be everyone who hasn't posted yet.

"I wasn't advertising roleclaiming, I was only almost doing so myself"

By lack of anyone who hasn't posted, I look at those who have but one post: flat, book, pers and Caoimhin. Ignoring Book Wombat because he always Lurks. of these (assuming Snow's votecount is correct), Caoimhin is the only one with a vote.
Voting Persolus because I remember them being more active.

Has Serpentine made a post yet? Don't know.

Caedorus

2023-04-25, 06:09 PM

"I wasn't advertising roleclaiming, I was only almost doing so myself"

Has Serpentine made a post yet? Don't know.
Okay this is weird. Fourteen people have posted and there are fourteen people on the player list, but Serp isn't in the "has-posted".

... The narrator, Xihirli. I'm stupid.
Don't feel like voting Ti bc probs just irl if she hasn't posted at all

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-25, 06:14 PM

Snow, your most recent votecount looks good to me.

I don't buy the suspicion on Kracken. If anything, that post feels like it's shutting down a possible AV wagon regardless of what was before it so unless Kracken/AV are both Wolves I don't see any case to build around it.

I'm not convinced 100% convinced that Snow is a Wolf based on that Kracken suspicion but I'm fine enough with having pressure on Snow. Actually, I really like Kracken's post directly above this, that's swaying me more than Jeen's post was.

On that note, I'm also eyeing the Caedorus "wagon". Which is basically two random votes plus this post from BatCatHat:

I'm not convinced that a Wolf would see someone else give a hint and then decide to draw attention to themselves and claim the same thing. Maybe I just don't know Caedorus and they would do that but it feels like a weird reason to make someone the lead wagon BatCatHat

Side note: Lady Serpentine is listed as a player and I believe hasn't posted yet.

Vote Count
Snowblaze (2): LetsGetKraken, JeenLeen
BatCatHat (2): AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape
LetsGetKraken (1): Snowblaze
Allondo (1): Persolus
Bladescape (1): flat_footed
Caedorus (3): Allondo, Illven, BatCatHat
CaoimhinTheCape (1): BookWombat
BookWombat (1): Bladescape
Persolus (1): Caedorus
No Vote: LadySerpentine

Appreciate the validation, but I think this is just normal hedginess from BatCatHat. Having played with him before (hell, even Snow referenced it) he is famously hedge turn 1. This does not seem suspicious.

Caedorus is giving me gut pings for stating facts about the game, which is a slightly wolfy thing to do to appear more active. Slight wolflean there, but staying on Snow.

Book Wombat

2023-04-25, 06:36 PM

I feel suspicious of Caoimhin currently, not sure why.

AvatarVecna

2023-04-25, 06:40 PM

I feel suspicious of Caoimhin currently, not sure why.

Wolf goes awoo

bladescape

2023-04-25, 06:52 PM

Wolf goes awoo

Truly cultured my good friend.

Persolus

2023-04-25, 07:03 PM

Hello! Apologies, you are correct - I am usually a lot more active. Yesterday was a day.

Give me a chance to read through everything and I will begin being active again!

JeenLeen

2023-04-25, 08:49 PM

Wolf goes awoo

AV, is that you saying Book Wombat looks wolfy, or you saying Cao looks wolfy?

Illven

2023-04-25, 09:46 PM

AvatarVecna

2023-04-25, 09:49 PM

Truly cultured my good friend.

I also considered "rude and wolfy af" but that joke's a bit more context dependent

- - - Updated - - -

AV, is that you saying Book Wombat looks wolfy, or you saying Cao looks wolfy?

"Uh, yes, I too am suspicious of...[rolls die] somebody, for...reasons I'm not entirely sure of. There, that oughta look like participation."

Batcathat

2023-04-26, 12:31 AM

I'm not convinced that a Wolf would see someone else give a hint and then decide to draw attention to themselves and claim the same thing. Maybe I just don't know Caedorus and they would do that but it feels like a weird reason to make someone the lead wagon BatCatHat

Sure, I'm not convinced either, but it's D1 so suspecting someone for voting someone else for less than ironclad reasons seems strange (and I kinda want to suspect you over it, but that would be wildly hypocritical, wouldn't it? :smalltongue:)

That said, I did kinda like Caedorus reaction to the votes, but I haven't decided whether that means I think he's less wolfy or just a smart wolf.

Book Wombat

2023-04-26, 12:52 AM

"Uh, yes, I too am suspicious of...[rolls die] somebody, for...reasons I'm not entirely sure of. There, that oughta look like participation."

Forsooth forsooth. I'm going to try my gut for a bit. Hopefully it won't escape it's flesh prison.

Snowblaze

2023-04-26, 01:16 AM

Morning.

So, Snowblaze - to be clear, you're saying this (which is pointing out that something is NAI) is hedgy, right?

...but all of this isn't?

Your post initially pinged me as hedgy; on reread and actually writing it up I realised that wasn't the best way to put that into words, hence the second post you quoted.

I can vaguely see how you'd interpret my posts as hedgy.

Mmm. Turning things over in my mind. Could be wrong here.

Other thoughts: vague recollection of Wombat's meta does suggest that actually having reads is wolfy for him, but also I would feel terrible if he's town and we killed him for it.

Still, I think that's better than any of the other currently-existent wagons (wait, no, Caoimhin switched away, he's not even a wagon rn), which probably means I should explain my townleans on them.

Caedorus is in fact for the soft thing. Comes from town a lot more often than wolves ime, and if you're a wolf trying to seed a fakeclaim then you generally want to keep it well-hidden until you need it, not point out "hey, I softed stuff!"

BCH is for the Caedorus vote, while I disagree with it I think town!BCH tends to have at least some sort of a firm stance/effort to reach a conclusion through the hedging which that could be.

- - - Updated - - -

Welp, apparently this turned into a wallpost.

So yeah, the main thing giving me pause on Kraken is his suspicion of me. Ironic, I know, but town!Kraken tends to suspect me a lot - he definitely did so last game, and I'm sure I remember another game where he suspected me for some of my posts being filler-y and fluffy and was town.

That's one thing. Second is the voice in the back of my head that's saying are you just OMGUSing because he's suspecting you for bad reasons now? which might not be an entirely valid point but there is probably some level of bias influencing my suspicion now?

Then there's the "Snowblaze is hedgy" thing which. On the one hand, if I look at it in a vacuum "you're not allowed to suspect me for this thing you've also done" is a wolfy response to pressure.

On the other hand, we're not playing in a vacuum. And if I look at it from the perspective of someone who has a natural tendency to suspect my playstyle and is probably mildly frustrated for being suspected for (from his PoV) bad reasons/annoyed at me for being a hypocrite (which yes, I am, but hypocrisy isn't wolfy)... then I have no difficulty whatsoever seeing town do it.

And also the fact that no-one else agrees with me/is helping me pressure there is making me wonder if I'm just an idiot... wait, no, that's a bad read actually, if Snowblaze is pushing a townie wouldn't wolves be inclined to go along with it and help her out?

Not necessarily? If people are already suspecting Snowblaze (for pushing Kraken, in particular) wolves probably don't want to be associated with that. Which... actually that's a point there are worlds where wolves are jumping on bladescape's suspicion of me... Jeen/Caoimhin? Potentially, would need to check.

There are also worlds where bladescape is a wolf undermining my credibility, since I have a bad habit of not considering wolf!bladescape worlds sufficiently. Does that imply I'm more likely to be right on Kraken? ...I have no idea.

Eh. None of this really leads me to any firm conclusions other than "I now have zero confidence in my Kraken suspicion but will be leaving my vote there for lack of better ideas".

You may now justifiably wolfread me for hedging.

Also if I start hyperposting more than I have so far before EOD (note to self: figure out when EOD is and try and be around for it) then please yell at me and inform me that my deadlines are more important than this game.

- - - Updated - - -

[Snow's] play seemed NAI (that is, solving af)

Also would I be able to add this to the quote pile for my Champs bio (assuming this game ends before thay one starts)?

- - - Updated - - -

AV's role is not going to be outed until they want it to be. Also, distressing that Caedorus, the one usually so against massclaiming, is already dropping hints. Maybe them saying they have dropped a hint is their clue and they're the two lovers? Makes no sense to claim that since if one of them dies the other dies as well, so there's no oppertunity for "I'm an innocent townie and my mason just died" stuff.
So, AV, Caedorus, are you trying a very bold wolf play but had you accidentally missed that in the lovers' role description? Or what's going on?

This post is stuck inside my brain and I can't work out what it says about Allando's alignment, part of me wants to suspect it for throwing shade at the softs but the other part says wolves fake-softing lovers is a wild enough theory to show lack of TMI (unless of course wolves are actually fake-softing lovers in which case a) lolme and b) Allando never points this out as their partner.)

Yells at self

My deadlines are more important than this game, even if I have just found motivation for the latter.

If my ramblings are more incoherent than normal it's because stress and sleep-deprivation.

bladescape

2023-04-26, 02:32 AM

The current secret is that neither of my votes are actually wolf and the wolf who I figured out I don't want to vote today.

- - - Updated - - -

It would be funny if one of the people I voted was also a wolf but I don't think so just yet.

- - - Updated - - -

Allando

Trying something else on for size cause now I think about it I want to encourage BW to participate with gut reads early again.

Lady Serpentine

2023-04-26, 06:45 AM

Snowblaze

2023-04-26, 09:30 AM

I'm getting a vaguely Mysterium vibe off Kraken, which does mildly concern me since Kraken managed to play quite a good wolf game there. I don't have more than a gut feeling to go on, though, so giving that the weight of my vote feels like rolling the dice.

On the other hand this is D1. And I don't like voting people who are having life happen, which Snow is, nor do I find the other frontrunners particularly convincing. So maybe I should just play it straight.

...yeah, sure. Kraken.

Does this mean you suspect me, or just "people have serious reasons for voting Snowblaze which is more than you can say for some of the other wagons"? (And if the former, explain please?)

Also thoughts on the Allando post I quoted at the bottom of last page?

Mmm. EOD is getting closer and I now have a complete lack of confident wolfreads and the wagons include me and two townleans of mine.

But also I don't have the time to do anything about it. Someone find a wolf for me, please and thank you!

Batcathat

2023-04-26, 09:44 AM

Mmm. EOD is getting closer and I now have a complete lack of confident wolfreads and the wagons include me and two townleans of mine.

Yeah, I know the feeling well (though I'm going back and forth on whether or not you being one the wagons is bad. I was kind of hoping you'd have some really suspicious reaction to people voting you, but you went the other way with it). I feel okay with my vote, but that's mostly just because none of the options seem better.

Allando

2023-04-26, 09:48 AM

Snowblaze

2023-04-26, 11:24 AM

Allando - because I don't feel like voting Kraken any more and he's the only other wagon I don't actively dislike. Also because vague gut. Please don't ask me to articulate it.

Still open to better ideas if people have them!

Allando, what did you make of the reactions to your accusation?

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-26, 11:30 AM

Of the wagons I still think Snow is best. Can someone with a couple of minutes put together a votecount? At work now or I'd do it.

Snowblaze

2023-04-26, 12:03 PM

Of the wagons I still think Snow is best. Can someone with a couple of minutes put together a votecount? At work now or I'd do it.

Caedorus 3: Allando, Illven, Batcathat
Allando 3: Persolus, bladescape, Snowblaze
Snowblaze 2: Let'sGetKraken, JeenLeen
Batcathat 2: AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape
Let'sGetKraken 1: Lady Serpentine
CaoimhinTheCape 1: Book Wombat
bladescape 1: flat_footed
Persolus 1: Caedorus

Thoughts on my wallposting last page?

flat_footed

2023-04-26, 12:14 PM

Okay this is weird. Fourteen people have posted and there are fourteen people on the player list, but Serp isn't in the "has-posted".

... The narrator, Xihirli. I'm stupid.
Don't feel like voting Ti bc probs just irl if she hasn't posted at all

Ok, I'll risk tilting the scales, gut feeling that this post is off. Pointing to something that doesn't make sense and then editing in your realization of why it happened, or a second post correcting yourself, is something I would have expected to see. Caedorus still posting this feels like he is trying to fake figuring things out.

Snowblaze

2023-04-26, 12:26 PM

Ok, I'll risk tilting the scales, gut feeling that this post is off. Pointing to something that doesn't make sense and then editing in your realization of why it happened, or a second post correcting yourself, is something I would have expected to see. Caedorus still posting this feels like he is trying to fake figuring things out.

Eh, is probably something I'd do as town, I wouldn't personally put much weight on it.

Thoughts on the other wagons?

(Also I'm sad Xumtiil isn't here, doesn't feel right making a "hey, someone blinked" read without him.)

Yells at self again

Caedorus

2023-04-26, 01:21 PM

Morning.

Also would I be able to add this to the quote pile for my Champs bio (assuming this game ends before thay one starts)?

Of course duh.

Ok, I'll risk tilting the scales, gut feeling that this post is off. Pointing to something that doesn't make sense and then editing in your realization of why it happened, or a second post correcting yourself, is something I would have expected to see. Caedorus still posting this feels like he is trying to fake figuring things out.
I realised as I was typing and it was 00:00 ath the time. Posting was easier than coming up with a post explaining what just happened.

- - - Updated - - -

Can't be bothered to dig for the quote, but Illven mentioned something along the lines of "having to retrain my Cain instincts". Just wanna point out that while yes, I joke-voted Allando in my first post, I swapped to a (to me) more sensible target to push once things got serious (that is, when wagons formed). Now, Persolus has explained himself (the reason I pressured him) and I'm up to convince for another woof (leaving typo bc hilarious).
Current leans:
Snow seems solving. Tentative townlean that's what she wants you to think...
Persolus has entered the NAI zone. Lady Serpentine will have explanations to do if she comes back, but if she doesn't the autokick will trigger (I remember that right, yes? There is one?) so there's no point wasting a day voting them.
Allando is healthily sus of me, veeery small townlean.
Batcathat doesn't seem very anxious about defending themselves, which I would normally call town, but they aren't in the lead either, so.
Flat will depend on how he reacts to my explanation.
Slight sus on Caoimhin for lying low but can someone with more meta look into this.

Think it's time for another pressure vote, this time on Batcathat.

- - - Updated - - -

Restrain. Definitly meant restrain and not retrain. Why can't I spell?

Snowblaze

2023-04-26, 01:37 PM

Of course duh.

I realised as I was typing and it was 00:00 ath the time. Posting was easier than coming up with a post explaining what just happened.

Thanks!

Also you're lead wagon and there's not long until EOD, in case you weren't aware.

Caoimhin lying low is fairly normal for them but I wouldn't be particularly surprised if they flipped wolf. I'll probably be able to read them more accurately D2/3 if we're both still alive.

Xihirli

2023-04-26, 01:42 PM

End of Main Phase One

No further posting until I put up the Battle Phase, please.

Turn One
Battle Phase

Kite touched down on the surface of the moon. The far side. He turned on his locator and followed it for three minutes. It started beeping louder and Kite frowned, looking about at the blank landscape of the moon.
"You did not miscalculate, Kite. This is the site where the Numeron Dragon made its rest. But it is not simply found... it looks for a worthy warrior." Mizar, the yellow-armored Barian Emperor, appeared before him.
"And the only one fit to wield the Numeron Dragon is necessarily the master of all Galaxy-Eyes!"
Kite's duel disk was already fired up. "Mizar. So you followed me."
"Our duel has always been destined, Kite. Ever since the four Blue-Eyes White Dragon cards were sent into space to undergo their Photon Transformation and two of them returned to earth, while two were pulled into Barian world, our fates have been intertwined. Now one of us shall sever that bind... and finally be free."
Kite scowled in his spacesuit. "Fine then! Because I control no monsters, I can summon Photon Thrasher! Now I normal summon Photon Crusher! And by tributing two monsters with at least 2000 attack points, I can special summon..." the twin monsters melted into light and reformed into the glowing blue
"GALAXY-EYES PHOTON DRAGON!"
Mizar's mouthless face somehow smiled.

Byron's Barian field extended. While his sons jumped off to face their opponents, he extended his stolen power to put himself and Vector, the gray-armored Barian Emperor, onto the same playing field.
"I warn you, I also have Barian powers, and whoever wins this duel shall claim the opponent's soul!"
Vector laughed at the diminished form of Byron. "Oh yes, Bryon. I remember your powers... I gave them to you, after all!"
"I think you're mistaken; we've never met."
"Oh, but you've met my good friend Doctor Faker! He exposed his son to Barian power, and you, I believe, extracted his powers. A painful process. Tell me... how long did the child you tortured SCREAM before you stopped?"
Byron threw a card down. "I summon Heraldic Twin-Headed Eagle! By discarding a card, I can make my eagle count as two monsters! I discard Heraldic Beast Basilisk!"
Two eagles appeared before him.
"Now I activate... Heraldry Reborn! I summon Basilisk from my graveyard. With these three monsters, I build the overlay network!"
Spinning, the eagles and Basilisk spun into energy and came down on the same Monster Zone. Emerging from the light came a thin, skeletal beast with two long arms and two massive horns. "I summon Number 69: Heraldry Crest!"
"Nice monster..." Vector admitted. "It not only negates my Xyz Monsters' Abilities, it also steals them! So, is that all, Child Torturer?"
Byron threw down two cards face-down.
"Nothing... until your turn!"
The instant Vector drew, both trap cards flipped up.
"I activate Heraldry Burst and Heraldry Change! Every time you Xyz summon a monster, you take 500 damage, and I draw a card! And I'll also activate Heraldry Change! Whenever you Xyz Summon a monster, all of its overlay units are immediately transferred to Heraldry Crest!"
Vector nodded. "Right. Aaaanyway, I activate Polymerization! I fuse Umbral Horror Will O' The Wisp, Umbral Horror Ghost, Umbral Horror Ghoul, Umbral Horror Unform, and Umbral Horror Golem! I fusion summon... PENTAGRAM'S UMBRAL HORROR!"
Five fiends mashed together and opened four and a half mouths of fire. "When summoned, all cards you control are destroyed!"
Heraldry Crest and Byron's two traps shattered from the duel field.
"See, that's the difference between someone who STEALS Barian power... and the real deal! Pentagram, attack this 'redeemed' monster, and END THIS DUEL!"
Byron's one revealed eye opened wide as the jaws of the fusion monster shut around him. The duel field vanished, and Vector's monster followed.
There was no trace of Byron.

Player
Role
Team

flat_footed

BatCatHat

CaoimhinTheCape

LetsGetKraken

AvatarVecna

Snowblaze

Illven

Bladescape

Persolus

JeenLeen

BookWombat

Lady Serpentine

Caedorus
Byron
Team ZeXal

Allando

Main Phase 2

Declare your actions!

Caedorus

2023-04-26, 01:42 PM

Thanks!

Also you're lead wagon and there's not long until EOD, in case you weren't aware.

Caoimhin lying low is fairly normal for them but I wouldn't be particularly surprised if they flipped wolf. I'll probably be able to read them more accurately D2/3 if we're both still alive.
Well since I'm currently two-for-three in d1 lynches and my role isn't particularly useful to town I don't care much.

Book Wombat

2023-04-26, 02:48 PM

...not particularly useful? It is basically a seer power.

Snowblaze

2023-04-26, 03:00 PM

Welp. Note to self: defend sufficiently confident townleans harder if you don't want to have to keep complaining about their getting lynched D1.

Also I presume the soft was the poem, since Byron is also a poet. I like that.

More thoughts probably tomorrow when I will actually have time for this game.

Allando

2023-04-26, 04:08 PM

Caedorus was trying so hard to be sus enough to not get nk'ed he got eliminated. Rip.

bladescape

2023-04-26, 07:52 PM

That wagon has a wolf btw. Possibly two but I'm not confident.

Lady Serpentine

2023-04-26, 10:12 PM

Does this mean you suspect me, or just "people have serious reasons for voting Snowblaze which is more than you can say for some of the other wagons"? (And if the former, explain please?)

Also thoughts on the Allando post I quoted at the bottom of last page?

Mmm. EOD is getting closer and I now have a complete lack of confident wolfreads and the wagons include me and two townleans of mine.

But also I don't have the time to do anything about it. Someone find a wolf for me, please and thank you!

The latter, and also "I'm about to go back to sleep".

That post makes me uncomfortable too; it's conflating individually dropping hints with massclaiming and trying to get someone who's claimed having something they consider worth hinting lynched over people who haven't decided to give anything to go on.

Snowblaze

2023-04-27, 03:28 AM

That wagon has a wolf btw. Possibly two but I'm not confident.

Yup, I would be very surprised if zero wolves voted for Caedorus looking at who's on that wagon.

Should have actual time for this game in a few hours. Reminding Kraken and flat that I have questions they haven't answered, though feel free to wait until day phase if you prefer.

Snowblaze

2023-04-27, 10:08 AM

Have time, but will probably just wait until day phase for proper analysis, I'm more at a stage of "I need to interact with people and pressure-vote and see what pops out" than "I need to reread thread and ISO and get a better grip on gamestate" rn. If I'm not alive to do that, consider the below my legacy:

Above null: AvatarVecna, Batcathat
Would be above null if I wasn't paranoid: bladescape
???: Let'sGetKraken
Null: Book Wombat, JeenLeen, Lady Serpentine, Persolus, Illven
To poke at: flat_footed, Allando, CaoimhinTheCape

I have too many nulls. Vague half-formed thoughts on some of them but I don't want to force myself to have reads when I can probably get significantly better ones once more stuff has happened.

Probably at least one wolf in my bottom tier, though.

Also general request for everyone to give 2-3 reasonably confident reads if they haven't already. Explanations preferable.

Allando

2023-04-27, 11:03 AM

Also general request for everyone to give 2-3 reasonably confident reads if they haven't already. Explanations preferable.
Hm, OK. I definitely suspect all the people voting Caedorus a little - yes, I know.
I'd have to go see who looks the most pockety, though.
Flat footed... you jumped on the wagon last second to avoid a tie. However, since Caedorus reached 3 votes first, there was no need, so a cunning wolf wouldn't have done that, unless again they have knowledge of vote manipulations, and why would the wolves do that, seeing as I was the other wagon? Did they somehow know Caedorus was a scry, and thus a waay better elimination than me? Or is this all some cunning wolf plan to sus me?
Aaaaaah my brains.
Other reads: Snowblaze, null. You started off slightly wolfy, but after that you've been solvy, but then again, as Caedorus said, that is more NAI for you than anything else.
The problem I'm having is I have too many people on the maybe wolf list and too few anywhere else. I agree with you that we need more info, I'm hoping the nk will clarify some.

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-27, 11:06 AM

Welp. Note to self: defend sufficiently confident townleans harder if you don't want to have to keep complaining about their getting lynched D1.

I know I am beating a dead horse here but this screams non-town to me. It is wolfy enough to the point at which it loops back past WIFOM to suspicious for me.

Yup, I would be very surprised if zero wolves voted for Caedorus looking at who's on that wagon.

Should have actual time for this game in a few hours. Reminding Kraken and flat that I have questions they haven't answered, though feel free to wait until day phase if you prefer.

What questions do you have, sorry? I saw you had a big wallpost about me but I didn't see specific questions so much as general speculation and commentary (though the whole "Kraken is suspicious for sussing me despite him just naturally sussing me" felt... odd, even if you did address it).

Batcathat

2023-04-27, 11:08 AM

Also general request for everyone to give 2-3 reasonably confident reads if they haven't already. Explanations preferable.

"Reasonably confident" is probably overselling it (because there's not a lot to go on and also I'm me), but the people I'm the least paranoid about is probably AV and to a lesser degree you.

AV mostly for the sort-of-claim. Unlike Caedorus' very vague comment (though if it was the poem, I admit it was pretty clever), AV's been very specific about where the clues are, even if we don't know what they mean, which seems like it would be unnecessarily limiting for a wolf (especially since there was no more than the usual suspicions against AV at the time). Of course, it's AV so it's certainly not impossible for it to be part of some long wolf con. (I also have a probably out there theory on what AV might have been trying to accomplish, which might suggest someone's wolfy if true).

My read on you is mostly gut. I was initially quite suspicious of you (mostly due to a combination of arguments made by others and something feeling kinda off) but your reaction to being wagon'd and later posts in general felt very towny. There was... franticness(?) that felt genuine. I also think you probably wouldn't have defended Caedorus as much if you were a wolf (then again, it wasn't enough, so maybe it was just the exactly right amount from a wolf).

On the wolf side of things my reads are even less confident. My gut is vary of Cao, but I think I'm at least partially doing what I said I wouldn't and suspect him for the same reason he supposedly suspected me.

If flat's a wolf, I suspect Allando is as well. I don't think a wolf would make that vote (knowing they'd look bad after the lynch) if it wasn't to save a buddy.

Snowblaze

2023-04-27, 11:39 AM

I know I am beating a dead horse here but this screams non-town to me. It is wolfy enough to the point at which it loops back past WIFOM to suspicious for me.

What questions do you have, sorry? I saw you had a big wallpost about me but I didn't see specific questions so much as general speculation and commentary (though the whole "Kraken is suspicious for sussing me despite him just naturally sussing me" felt... odd, even if you did address it).

My question was "what did you think of my wallpost about you".

Also most of my point there was "Kraken might not actually be suspicious for sussing me because he just naturally susses me".

But since you're here: pretend I reveal myself to be an innocent child. Who are the wolves then?

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-27, 11:44 AM

My question was "what did you think of my wallpost about you".

Also most of my point there was "Kraken might not actually be suspicious for sussing me because he just naturally susses me".

But since you're here: pretend I reveal myself to be an innocent child. Who are the wolves then?

Ah, fair.

I genuinely do not know. I think there is a wolf on the Caedorus wagon - it happened with comparatively little opposition, which is always a little worrisome. If Allando flips wolf I think that makes it clearer - I would be highly suspicious of flat in that case - but if that was a town/town wagon then I don't think we actually have much to go on.

Snowblaze

2023-04-27, 11:53 AM

"Reasonably confident" is probably overselling it (because there's not a lot to go on and also I'm me), but the people I'm the least paranoid about is probably AV and to a lesser degree you.

AV mostly for the sort-of-claim. Unlike Caedorus' very vague comment (though if it was the poem, I admit it was pretty clever), AV's been very specific about where the clues are, even if we don't know what they mean, which seems like it would be unnecessarily limiting for a wolf (especially since there was no more than the usual suspicions against AV at the time). Of course, it's AV so it's certainly not impossible for it to be part of some long wolf con. (I also have a probably out there theory on what AV might have been trying to accomplish, which might suggest someone's wolfy if true).

My read on you is mostly gut. I was initially quite suspicious of you (mostly due to a combination of arguments made by others and something feeling kinda off) but your reaction to being wagon'd and later posts in general felt very towny. There was... franticness(?) that felt genuine. I also think you probably wouldn't have defended Caedorus as much if you were a wolf (then again, it wasn't enough, so maybe it was just the exactly right amount from a wolf).

On the wolf side of things my reads are even less confident. My gut is vary of Cao, but I think I'm at least partially doing what I said I wouldn't and suspect him for the same reason he supposedly suspected me.

If flat's a wolf, I suspect Allando is as well. I don't think a wolf would make that vote (knowing they'd look bad after the lynch) if it wasn't to save a buddy.

Mmm, this makes sense. I wouldn't say it was franticness exactly, just being voted made me realise I'd been not doing enough (according to my own extremely high standards) and I should probably start actually solving.

I will admit I'm toying with a flat/Allando w/w world, but it does feel almost too obvious to be true.

Also I may regret this, but I think Kraken is just confbiased town atp. I can see a wolf deciding to OMGUS me when bladescape is voting me and I'm reasonably suspected; I don't see said wolf then continuing to push me even when I've done towny stuff and partially pivoted away from him, and people in general aren't suspecting me as much.

Xihirli

2023-04-27, 03:47 PM

End of M2

Turn One: End Phase

Nash, the purple-armed Barian Emperor, brought himself and Quattro back to the duel field, where they'd had their first battle.
"Remember this battlefield, Quattro?"
Quattro grins and activates his duel disk. "I do. You were disqualified for cheating against me."
"In response to your DELIBERATE provocation! You didn't know how much was at stake! My sister needed that prize money!"
"Apparently not. She seems perfectly capable of aiding you in your invasion of our world now. So, I'd say a small price to pay for seeing those big red letters on the duel screen: Reginald Castle – Disqualified!" Quattro laughs.
Nash's eyes narrow. "I was going to save this for Yuma."
"A shame I'll be going first then! I activate CARD OF PUPPETS! This allows me to summon from my hand Gimmick Puppet Humpty Dumpty and Gimmick Puppet Dreary Doll! Now let's see if my doll can't succeed where all the king's men failed and lay the overlay network! I Xyz Summon the Rank 8 Number 15: Gimmick Puppet Giant Grinder! I'll put down three cards to protect it! Now, Reginald, what are you to do against him!?"
Nash's deck glowed. "A truly powerful duelist can change the outcome of a Duel. He can even generate the very cards he needs to draw! Chaos... Draw!"
Nash draws his top card with a wide swipe. He turns the card to glance at it out of the corner of his eye. "This is the end."

Turn Two: Draw Phase
All powers refresh.

Turn Two: Standby Phase

Marin's duel against Quinton is going well for Kite's teacher. He's managed to defeat her ace monster, Ragnazero, and he is ready to attack directly with Dyson Sphere for game. "Now, Dyson Sphere!"
"Not so fast!" Marin flips up... "Threatening Roar! You cannot declare an attack this turn, giving me one more draw."
Quinton smirks and lays two cards face-down. "If you think they'll help. I don't recall Rio having much in the way of dueling ability."
"Sadly, you are facing Marin, Barian Empress!"

Player
Role
Team

flat_footed

BatCatHat

CaoimhinTheCape

LetsGetKraken

AvatarVecna

Snowblaze

Illven

Bladescape

Persolus

JeenLeen

BookWombat

Lady Serpentine

Caedorus
Byron
Team ZeXal

Allando

:D
;)
:P

Turn Two: Main Phase One
Begin voting!

Snowblaze

2023-04-27, 04:18 PM

...right, yes, there are no nightkills.

Allando - I'll start back here. Thoughts on flat_footed/Kraken/anyone else you have strong opinions on?

Unless people are around I'll probably catch up on sleep I've missed soon and then get back to the solving tomorrow.

JeenLeen

2023-04-27, 04:34 PM

I wrote most of this up during Night phase, since I knew I'd be busy until about halfway through Day.
But my biggest though this "how no NK?"
With the timing, I don't think we could block a NK this first End Phase, right, since ours wait until Standby? Even the "delay death" by a phase power wouldn't be active yet to block the first kill.

Iffy vibes from Allando and Cao.
flat_footed seems odd given the last-minute vote.
Not sure on Snowblaze and Kraken. Want to rethink things.
I'm taking the talk at night with a grain of salt, as folk sometimes lie or try to avoid being targeted for NKs then. But that some talked... maybe relevant. Will probably say more tomorrow.

Anyway, here's my stuff:

The current secret is that neither of my votes are actually wolf and the wolf who I figured out I don't want to vote today.

- - - Updated - - -

It would be funny if one of the people I voted was also a wolf but I don't think so just yet.

- - - Updated - - -

Allando

Trying something else on for size cause now I think about it I want to encourage BW to participate with gut reads early again.

Allando - because I don't feel like voting Kraken any more and he's the only other wagon I don't actively dislike. Also because vague gut. Please don't ask me to articulate it.

Still open to better ideas if people have them!

Allando, what did you make of the reactions to your accusation?

Ok, I'll risk tilting the scales, gut feeling that this post is off. Pointing to something that doesn't make sense and then editing in your realization of why it happened, or a second post correcting yourself, is something I would have expected to see. Caedorus still posting this feels like he is trying to fake figuring things out.

Thanks!

Also you're lead wagon and there's not long until EOD, in case you weren't aware.

Caoimhin lying low is fairly normal for them but I wouldn't be particularly surprised if they flipped wolf. I'll probably be able to read them more accurately D2/3 if we're both still alive.

Analysis

If Allando flips wolf, then bladescape and Snowblaze are almost assurdedly town. Or willing to bus an ally. More towncred to bladescape, as he easily could have changed his vote again as has been standard D1 for him this and other games.

If Allando flips wolf, flat_footed looks bad. His vote essentially protected Allando and sealed Caedorus' death.

Questions

flat_footed, anything more to say than the little you said?

Caedorus was trying so hard to be sus enough to not get nk'ed he got eliminated. Rip.
Could you state (or restate) what you thought was suspicious?

Any thoughts on Illven or Batcathat after the death flip?
I don't really have anything on Illven. Batcathat feels a little suspicious to me, but he often does that regardless of alignment.

Tangent
I'll probably be offline this weekend except for late in the evening.

AvatarVecna

2023-04-27, 04:39 PM

I'm gonna have to read mech aren't i

Batcathat

2023-04-27, 04:51 PM

So, potentially stupid question but... do we know if the wolves have a night kill? I kind of assumed they had a factional one, but the rules doesn't actually seem to say anything about it.

Allando

2023-04-27, 04:52 PM

Caedorus was being suspicious by not acting like I'm used to. All previous games he was extremely against claiming in general. I still have no clue why he decided to hint being the seer - it was probably why he got eliminated.
For now, Flat_Footed. You're the most suspicious vote change IMO.

- - - Updated - - -

So, potentially stupid question but... do we know if the wolves have a night kill? I kind of assumed they had a factional one, but the rules doesn't actually seem to say anything about it.

Do they have one, do they have to use it? My first thought was the latter.

flat_footed

2023-04-27, 05:00 PM

If Allando flips wolf, flat_footed looks bad. His vote essentially protected Allando and sealed Caedorus' death.

Caedorus was being suspicious by not acting like I'm used to. All previous games he was extremely against claiming in general. I still have no clue why he decided to hint being the seer - it was probably why he got eliminated.
For now, Flat_Footed. You're the most suspicious vote change IMO.

There's not much further to look into for my vote than what I already said, it was the only thing that stood out to me between Allando and Caedorus. I made a choice to break the tie, turns out it was the wrong one assuming we weren't TvT. I don't have much time now, working graveyard yesterday and today. I'll be back in ~12 hours.

Voting Allando here crossed my mind to try and prove I'm not protecting them. Best case scenario they flip wolf and then I look wolfy, worst case they are town and we lose another member. In any case, no vote from me yet.

Batcathat

2023-04-27, 05:05 PM

Not sure whether Allando and flat turning on each other makes me trust them more or less. I could see two wolves sensing which way the wind was blowing and deciding to bus each other, hoping the survivor would look towny.

CaoimhinTheCape

2023-04-27, 06:09 PM

I'll try to put in more time and post more this phase but I'm not gonna be around as much as I was in years past. Did a reads list of everyone for Day 1 at least and looking at the Caedorus wagon is probably the place to start.

Let'sGetKracken is a decently confident Town read for me. Engaging with everyone plenty and just gives off town vibes.

Snowblaze I'm not 100% sold on as Town but I'm sold on her being an active player who is contributing. That's enough for me right now, as the game goes on I know I'll have more to look back at and make a decision on.

JeenLeen doesn't have too many posts but they are comparatively longer and it gives me more of an engaged town vibe than the one line posts of most other players. Wouldn't call it a Town lean but a "don't need to deal with right now" lean.

Avatar Vecna's main talking points in the thread have been about a potential role hint. Want more but it's AV so it's not like this is out of character.

Book Wombat is sort of in the same boat as AV in my mind. There's nothing that I feel is super out of character for Book but there's nothing that's giving town vibes and I don't want to wait forever to figure him out.

bladscape joints this group of "their play makes sense for them, which means I don't have any read yet".

BatCatHat on a reread is looking more like normal but also... I don't like that his post turned Caedorus into an actual wagon with some justification. I have a nagging feeling that it's Wolf motivated to get rid of at least one person who soft claimed a role so it's not a problem later.

Allando isn't looking great now that Caedorus has flipped Town. I can't decide if I like that he posted more than the other people who voted Caedorus or it feels like a Wolf trying to show some sort of activity. Hopefully gonna figure that out today.

flat_footed doesn't look good to me. Only two posts are a random vote and then the last vote on Caedorus. It's a bit obvious for a wolf to be the last vote on a Townie but could have been meant to help protect Allanfo, Snow, or BatCatHat against last minute vote switching (it was about 2 hours before deadline).

Illven feels suspicious to me as well. I don't know if this sort of activity is normal, but a random vote that stuck through the day, commenting a couple times on AV, and then a post basically saying they're happy with their vote.

Persolus Is in the "need more info" zone too but gets a little less leeway than Lady Serpentine since he was around at the beginning of the Day at least.

Lady Serpentine hasn't posted enough for me to get a definite read on.

Copying over the End of Day 1 votecount to have it somewhere.

Caedorus 4: Allando, Illven, Batcathat, flat_footed
Allando 3: Persolus, bladescape, Snowblaze
Snowblaze 2: Let'sGetKraken, JeenLeen
Batcathat 3: AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape, Caedorus
Let'sGetKraken 1: Lady Serpentine
CaoimhinTheCape 1: Book Wombat

bladescape

2023-04-27, 06:15 PM

Welp I was hit by Marin last night.

AvatarVecna

2023-04-27, 06:58 PM

Got a guess at who Illven is. Abi says hi?

Welp I was hit by Marin last night.

*squints*

bladescape

2023-04-27, 07:02 PM

Got a guess at who Illven is. Abi says hi?

*squints*

Squints? 10chars

AvatarVecna

2023-04-27, 07:04 PM

Squints? 10chars

https://media0.giphy.com/media/cFgb5p5e1My3K/giphy.gif

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-27, 08:15 PM

Illven

2023-04-27, 09:07 PM

Edit: Ah no I am an idiot. I thought that was the dice-destroy power. That tracks. This actually seems townish for me, since this is a bold ****ing claim if someone else got Marin'd. Could be a wolf claiming but feels a little more townish here.

Um. So here's a thought.

How do we know there's a Marin? If bladescape is a wolf, and knows there's no marin they know it's a safe claim to make. Alternatively they may know the Marin didn't target. Etc.

As for Vecna. Not quite.

JeenLeen

2023-04-27, 09:16 PM

Persolus

2023-04-28, 12:56 AM

Hello! I am alive and apologise again for inactivity. Today was also a day, but in the very good direction, so nice but still distracting.

It's quite simple - Nistro targeted someone, they're going to die next phase. Nistro, if you want to step forth and reveal who you targeted, then that's two cleared townies for this voting phase.

finally destroyed]

Snowblaze

2023-04-28, 01:35 AM

Morning.

Wolves don't have a nightkill, they turn people into XYZ Material so their votes count for wolves instead. (Some people might get towncred for lack of TMI on that? Will check.)

Don't think that was stated explicitly in the OP but I do remember Xihirli saying it somewhere - in Central? Will check.

Caoimhin's reads list makes me feel better about them, still wouldn't commit to a townread there but not a priority for today.

AV, explain why you squinted at bladescape's claim, please.

I have other stuff but need to check/find quotes first.

Batcathat

2023-04-28, 01:46 AM

Don't think that was stated explicitly in the OP but I do remember Xihirli saying it somewhere - in Central? Will check.

Oh yeah, you're right:

The Rank-Ups are just their passives, don’t need to unlock. Continuing in the GX tradition I’ve given the wolves active powers and passive powers. Also experimenting with a nonlethal night-kill that accelerates the clock MORE than a night kill.

One thing that made me question wolves not having a night kill was that it seemed so unlikely that no one would've commented on it in the recruitment thread or the game, but I suppose this explains it.

Snowblaze

2023-04-28, 01:47 AM

On Allando: apparently I missed this last night so scratch the questions that came with the vote.

Hm, OK. I definitely suspect all the people voting Caedorus a little - yes, I know.
I'd have to go see who looks the most pockety, though.
Flat footed... you jumped on the wagon last second to avoid a tie. However, since Caedorus reached 3 votes first, there was no need, so a cunning wolf wouldn't have done that, unless again they have knowledge of vote manipulations, and why would the wolves do that, seeing as I was the other wagon? Did they somehow know Caedorus was a scry, and thus a waay better elimination than me? Or is this all some cunning wolf plan to sus me?
Aaaaaah my brains.
Other reads: Snowblaze, null. You started off slightly wolfy, but after that you've been solvy, but then again, as Caedorus said, that is more NAI for you than anything else.
The problem I'm having is I have too many people on the maybe wolf list and too few anywhere else. I agree with you that we need more info, I'm hoping the nk will clarify some.

Mmm. If I squint I can see things I like here but then...

Caedorus was being suspicious by not acting like I'm used to. All previous games he was extremely against claiming in general. I still have no clue why he decided to hint being the seer - it was probably why he got eliminated.
For now, Flat_Footed. You're the most suspicious vote change IMO.

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Do they have one, do they have to use it? My first thought was the latter.
...which I'm not so much a fan of, especially since it... doesn't really fit with the previous post?

Can you talk me through the progression between the bolded lines, please? How did you go from "it doesn't make sense why wolves would do this, but here's a possibility that might somehow have occurred" to "this is almost certainly what happened" (since "wolves noticed the softs and got Caedorus killed as a result" follows from the latter bolded line)?

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Oh yeah, you're right:

One thing that made me question wolves not having a night kill was that it seemed so unlikely that no one would've commented on it in the recruitment thread or the game, but I suppose this explains it.

That was indeed the quote I was thinking of, thanks for finding it.

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Okay, Jeen is the main person in the "potential towncred for lack of TMI" pile.

Also slightly walking back my suspicion of Allando's last post, I initially found it suspicious for over-justifying voting town yesterday but it was actually a response to Jeen which makes that particular point invalid.

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Illven, can I get a reads list/summary of your current thoughts about the game, please? I don't really have an idea of where you stand on anything aorn, which is mildly concerning.

(Incidentally, Illven/bladescape not w/w.)

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Though bladescape is probably town anyway? The claim is part of that but I think in general he's been playing how I expect town!him to play.

(Is it bad that I kind of want to play against wolf!bladescape to see if I end up misclearing him?)

Batcathat

2023-04-28, 02:34 AM

Let's go with Allando for now to have more than one wagon (though when we get close to EoD it might be a good idea to make sure someone is in a solid lead, since vote manipulation is likely).

(Is it bad that I kind of want to play against wolf!bladescape to see if I end up misclearing him?)

Maybe it'll be like whatever game it was when you were a wolf and blade was (at least publicly) townreading you to such an unreasonable degree that my main reason for townreading blade was that no wolf would be that blatantly supporting of a buddy. :smalltongue:

Snowblaze

2023-04-28, 03:03 AM

Let's go with Allando for now to have more than one wagon (though when we get close to EoD it might be a good idea to make sure someone is in a solid lead, since vote manipulation is likely).

Maybe it'll be like whatever game it was when you were a wolf and blade was (at least publicly) townreading you to such an unreasonable degree that my main reason for townreading blade was that no wolf would be that blatantly supporting of a buddy. :smalltongue:
Probably the original Yu-Gi-Oh! actually. That was fun, he wouldn't vote me when I was mechanically outed so I made up a conspiracy theory about him being my partner and then when I got to deadchat people were suggesting exactly that theory.

Also, yes, be aware someone's vote probably won't count and a wolf's will probably count twice. So... actually let me run numbers.

Let's say for the sake of argument we have three wolves.

Currently 11:3 with Nash's power making it 10:4
D2 mislynch then 10:3, 9:5
D3 mislynch then 9:3, 6:6
So effectively D3 is MyLo.

Though, yes, I am oversimplifying considerably here because we could mislynch XYZ Material which would take votes away from wolves, and there's probably other ways people can die.

Yeah, we're not screwed yet but we could do with killing a wolf today, and also be aware that in general LyLo will arrive a lot sooner than we'd normally expect.

AvatarVecna

2023-04-28, 06:11 AM

Nash's power is interesting because it's analogous to a cult power, but weaker. Normally, a cultist targets player X, and going forward Player X is voting with scumteam, using powers with scumteam, and sharing thoughts with scumteam. Here, scumteam only gets player X's vote, and anyone "recruited to the cult" detransitions should the cult leader be targeted for death. However, targeting the cult leader for death just gets rid of their vote power; you've gotta kill them a second time before they gain any more, or they have kill protection again. To actually get ahead of the cult leader, you need banes that can protect from culting, voids that can prevent him from culting, or kill powers; "just the lynch" is insufficient.

Also, the game could actually be over today. Say that the scumteam is Nash/Alito.

D1: Starts living 12:2/voting 12:2. Mislynch a non-lover. Ends living 11:2/voting 11:2.
N1: Yuma cults someone into a lover. Nash cults a non-lover into material. Ends living 11:2/voting 10:3.
D2: Starts living 11:2/voting 10:3. Mislynch a non-lover. Ends living 10:2/voting 9:3.
N2: Yuma cults. Nash cults. Alito rolls a 6 on a lover. No other overlaps. Ends 6:2/voting 4:4.
D3: GG EZ PZ NO RE

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-28, 06:43 AM

Um. So here's a thought.

How do we know there's a Marin? If bladescape is a wolf, and knows there's no marin they know it's a safe claim to make. Alternatively they may know the Marin didn't target. Etc.

As for Vecna. Not quite.

Fair point.
The wolves obviously know what wolves are in play. (Based on meta aspects, I assume the wolves know what roles aren't in play for town as well, but that's tangential here.) So it would be easy, and a good source for towncred, for a wolf to say they were impacted when they weren't. Might even help if the wolf plans on fakeclaiming an info-gathering role but wants an excuse not to know too much.

If bladescape is a wolf, I'd bet Marin isn't in play. I don't see the wolves willingly giving up a semi-void for some towncred.

I assumed so, but, yeah, you're right.
Xihirli: do the wolves get a NK?

If they do... am I right that nobody's power could have blocked it N1?
If they do AND it couldn't have been blocked, some heat to the inactive players. It's hard to believe the wolves might forget to put in a NK, and from bladescape (if honest) we know at least one was around to put in a night action.
But I think we saw the wolves forget to NK in one of AV's ghost games, so it can happen.

Nash's power is interesting because it's analogous to a cult power, but weaker. Normally, a cultist targets player X, and going forward Player X is voting with scumteam, using powers with scumteam, and sharing thoughts with scumteam. Here, scumteam only gets player X's vote, and anyone "recruited to the cult" detransitions should the cult leader be targeted for death. However, targeting the cult leader for death just gets rid of their vote power; you've gotta kill them a second time before they gain any more, or they have kill protection again. To actually get ahead of the cult leader, you need banes that can protect from culting, voids that can prevent him from culting, or kill powers; "just the lynch" is insufficient.

Also, the game could actually be over today. Say that the scumteam is Nash/Alito.

D1: Starts living 12:2/voting 12:2. Mislynch a non-lover. Ends living 11:2/voting 11:2.
N1: Yuma cults someone into a lover. Nash cults a non-lover into material. Ends living 11:2/voting 10:3.
D2: Starts living 11:2/voting 10:3. Mislynch a non-lover. Ends living 10:2/voting 9:3.
N2: Yuma cults. Nash cults. Alito rolls a 6 on a lover. No other overlaps. Ends 6:2/voting 4:4.
D3: GG EZ PZ NO RE

This is all valid.... but now bladescape has locked themselves into claiming a targeting power that can provide a result normally (otherwise he would not be certain that it was Marin and not just a power failing). It reduces the space to claim in. I would expect to see it from a wolf under pressure, but without much on blade this feels more townish to me.

AvatarVecna

2023-04-28, 06:44 AM

AV, explain why you squinted at bladescape's claim, please.

Let's compare a couple roles:

Kite – the Light: Your father, Doctor Faker, made a pact with the Barians that put yourself and your brother at risk and you’ve been paying for it your whole life. This war is personal for you.
Galaxy-Eyes Photon Dragon:
On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Player. Starting in the next Standby Phase, if you ever vote for that Player, they cannot activate any abilit(ies) on the next Main Phase 2. A maximum of 3 Player(s) can have this effect at once.

Dextra – The Referee: You were present when Dr. Faker and Quinton were putting Kite through torture to mold him into a weapon. You were the only one who saw that he was a kid. And now you’re the only adult looking out for his safety.
Photon Papilloperative
During your Main Phase 2: Target 1 player. Starting the next Standby Phase, that Player can EITHER make a vote on their Main Phase One OR use their special ability on their Main Phase 2, not both. This effect can be active on only one Player at a time.

Marin – The Empress
Nash’s sister in a past life, Reginald’s sister Rio in this one, you stand by your people in this world or the next. Sometimes that means you agree with your brother, sometimes…
Number 103: Ragnazero
On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Player.
Regardless of that Player’s ability, they will receive the feedback "no result" after the next end phase.
Rank-Up Magic: Barian’s Force If you are Destroyed in battle, one random person who voted for you is also destroyed.

Marin isn't a voider. The ability doesn't say anything to that effect, and doesn't read anything like the powers that are indisputably voiders. In fact, if we wanna get really technical, it doesn't even say that "no result" replaces the players normal feedback, so it's possible that this isn't even a pseudo-void for scry abilities, but rather just a taunt of "hey, I'm in the game!" But let's go with a worst-case scenario, and say that Marin has a full-blown void, even though the power doesn't read like the other void power in existence and only vaguely gestures in that direction.

Marin has two powers. One is a void that informs their target of one scumteam role in play. The other is a beast power that doesn't apply to nightkills, which town has...three of? The most dangerous one is Quattro; presuming that blade is being honest and Quattro is in play, what happens now is that Quattro spends each night going "Player X is Marin", a kill power that cannot possibly backfire on town and actually has a chance of killing a wolf. That's a good vig power, and a good use of it...if blade is telling the truth. But put yourself in Marin's shoes: why void at all?

Yuma is almost as big a threat to town as Barians are.

Astra's power is opt-in.

Tori could accidentally help Barians, and even if she helps town, look how many town powers aren't worth voiding here.

Bronk maybe doesn't do anything.

Anna definitely doesn't do anything until at least the fourth standby phase.

Flip is a secret voter who doesn't even know which player he's secretly voting for (we don't even get a count of how many times each person got voted, so this isn't even a pseudo-scry).

Nistro gives a single townie an extra night to use their power, in exchange for denying the rest of town the ability to aim their powers based on the information that flip would've given them.

Kari randomly has extra vote power, which scumteam may or may not be stealing.

Byron is dead.

Quinton is slightly harder to lynch but not really, or can have some extra vote power which is 1) very obvious, and 2) can be stolen by Nash.

Trey copies powers, and look at all these "not worth voiding" powers he has to choose from. In fairness I guess he could choose a Barian.

That leaves Kite (voider), Dextra (voider), Quattro (vig), Kathy (watcher), and maybe Trey (power copier) as people wolves would actually want to void N1. At best, that is 5 roles of the 15 that are in the game. Even if all five of them are in play (unlikely), that's about a 50% chance of voiding someone wolves actually want voided, in exchange for telling a townie that the beast is in the game and should be killed via vig instead of lynched. And again this is all assuming the worst case scenario where despite reading barely anything like it, Marin is actually a voider instead of just someone who sends a taunting message that doesn't even replace the target's normal feedback. At absolute best for wolves and worst for town, it's a coinflip whether it was a good void or not.

And who do they decide to reveal themselves to? Who do they decide to give an inch to, in the hope that their target won't take a mile? bladescape.

If I were wolf voider/beast, I'd skip using my power before I considered telling bladescape the beast was in play, unless I knew for absolute sure bladescape had a vital power that absolutely had to be prevented. More likely though, I'd just target someone else, someone less likely to use that tiny morsel of information and actually do something useful with it.

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And of course, the alternative to "wolves took a huge risk for no reason giving town!blade info in the vain hope town!blade had a power worth voiding" is "scum!blade is lying about who the wolf team is to throw town off for even as little as a single extra phase since game could end really really quickly". Heck even if Nash isn't in play, a fake Marin gambit is the kind of thing that could distract Quattro from hunting for wolves that are actually in the game.

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Oh and naturally, if Marin's power is specifically a feedback-replacer and thus voids roles that get feedback...well, the seer is dead. I guess they could void Kathy or Trey? But that's even worse odds.

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Gonna go get breakfast. I already know the first thing I'll dig into when I return.

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-28, 07:07 AM

Let's compare a couple roles:

Marin isn't a voider. The ability doesn't say anything to that effect, and doesn't read anything like the powers that are indisputably voiders. In fact, if we wanna get really technical, it doesn't even say that "no result" replaces the players normal feedback, so it's possible that this isn't even a pseudo-void for scry abilities, but rather just a taunt of "hey, I'm in the game!" But let's go with a worst-case scenario, and say that Marin has a full-blown void, even though the power doesn't read like the other void power in existence and only vaguely gestures in that direction.

Marin has two powers. One is a void that informs their target of one scumteam role in play. The other is a beast power that doesn't apply to nightkills, which town has...three of? The most dangerous one is Quattro; presuming that blade is being honest and Quattro is in play, what happens now is that Quattro spends each night going "Player X is Marin", a kill power that cannot possibly backfire on town and actually has a chance of killing a wolf. That's a good vig power, and a good use of it...if blade is telling the truth. But put yourself in Marin's shoes: why void at all?

Yuma is almost as big a threat to town as Barians are.

Astra's power is opt-in.

Tori could accidentally help Barians, and even if she helps town, look how many town powers aren't worth voiding here.

Bronk maybe doesn't do anything.

Anna definitely doesn't do anything until at least the fourth standby phase.

Flip is a secret voter who doesn't even know which player he's secretly voting for (we don't even get a count of how many times each person got voted, so this isn't even a pseudo-scry).

Nistro gives a single townie an extra night to use their power, in exchange for denying the rest of town the ability to aim their powers based on the information that flip would've given them.

Kari randomly has extra vote power, which scumteam may or may not be stealing.

Byron is dead.

Quinton is slightly harder to lynch but not really, or can have some extra vote power which is 1) very obvious, and 2) can be stolen by Nash.

Trey copies powers, and look at all these "not worth voiding" powers he has to choose from. In fairness I guess he could choose a Barian.

That leaves Kite (voider), Dextra (voider), Quattro (vig), Kathy (watcher), and maybe Trey (power copier) as people wolves would actually want to void N1. At best, that is 5 roles of the 15 that are in the game. Even if all five of them are in play (unlikely), that's about a 50% chance of voiding someone wolves actually want voided, in exchange for telling a townie that the beast is in the game and should be killed via vig instead of lynched. And again this is all assuming the worst case scenario where despite reading barely anything like it, Marin is actually a voider instead of just someone who sends a taunting message that doesn't even replace the target's normal feedback. At absolute best for wolves and worst for town, it's a coinflip whether it was a good void or not.

And who do they decide to reveal themselves to? Who do they decide to give an inch to, in the hope that their target won't take a mile? bladescape.

If I were wolf voider/beast, I'd skip using my power before I considered telling bladescape the beast was in play, unless I knew for absolute sure bladescape had a vital power that absolutely had to be prevented. More likely though, I'd just target someone else, someone less likely to use that tiny morsel of information and actually do something useful with it.

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And of course, the alternative to "wolves took a huge risk for no reason giving town!blade info in the vain hope town!blade had a power worth voiding" is "scum!blade is lying about who the wolf team is to throw town off for even as little as a single extra phase since game could end really really quickly". Heck even if Nash isn't in play, a fake Marin gambit is the kind of thing that could distract Quattro from hunting for wolves that are actually in the game.

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Oh and naturally, if Marin's power is specifically a feedback-replacer and thus voids roles that get feedback...well, the seer is dead. I guess they could void Kathy or Trey? But that's even worse odds.

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Gonna go get breakfast. I already know the first thing I'll dig into when I return.

I mean, this is a very pretty wall of text making quite a lot of assumptions that I largely personally disagree with, but it does seem townish, I think? This doesn't feel wolfish to me. AV already has one iron in the fire with the passive claim hint, going out on a limb like this and taking a massive swing at blade feels like... not wolfy behaviour.

Anyway, all that to say - most town powers are still somewhat beneficial. Why wouldn't Marin use their ability? Is sitting there doing nothing really better than actively trying to disrupt? Sure, it means we need to vig Marin, but we don't know who they are and (now that our pseudo-seer is dead) largely lack the ability to do so. Our way of discovering Marin is likely just by lynching them. So that especially feels like a weak argument. I can see your logic, but it is certainly not universal and makes quite a few assumptions about their behaviour.

AvatarVecna

2023-04-28, 07:13 AM

I mean, this is a very pretty wall of text making quite a lot of assumptions that I largely personally disagree with, but it does seem townish, I think? This doesn't feel wolfish to me. AV already has one iron in the fire with the passive claim hint, going out on a limb like this and taking a massive swing at blade feels like... not wolfy behaviour.

Anyway, all that to say - most town powers are still somewhat beneficial. Why wouldn't Marin use their ability? Is sitting there doing nothing really better than actively trying to disrupt? Sure, it means we need to vig Marin, but we don't know who they are and (now that our pseudo-seer is dead) largely lack the ability to do so. Our way of discovering Marin is likely just by lynching them. So that especially feels like a weak argument. I can see your logic, but it is certainly not universal and makes quite a few assumptions about their behaviour.

You're missing the main skewer of the argument. However you think marins power works, however useful you think townie powers are to prevent...why blade instead of literally anyone else? Why give that certainty of "this wolf is definitely in the game" to the player who can do the most with that information?

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Like yeah I personally would target nobody if blade was my 9nly option, but I'd rather target, say, JeenLeen than blade. If for no other reason than JL would now be the one with certain knowledge, and now blade is having to evaluate whether JL is telling the truth or lying to distract Quattro or just lying to confuse town for a few extra moments.

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Also, there's three potential kill powers in play. Two of them are debatable unhelpful for catching Mirin, but the third is basically tailor-made to ruin her day as soon as she targets anyone. We're not exactly helpless to do anything other than lynch the beast if blade is telling the truth.

Three potential town kill powers I should say. Not counting Trey copying a dead killer.

JeenLeen

2023-04-28, 07:33 AM

Based on no NK, we know Nash is in play.
If bladescape is honest, we know Marin is in play.
I assume Vector is in play to give wolves safe fakeclaims.

I don't think there'd be 4 wolves in a game this small, especially as Xi doesn't view the "Nash votesteal" as weak (if I read her post in Central right).
So likely 3 wolves, and it's likely Nash, Marin, and Vector.

---

It's early morning, so though I've read/skimmed everything, I haven't comprehended it enough.
In case someone else hasn't stated it, I read Marin's power -- and I think, but can't remember for sure that Xi said this in recruitment or Central -- that Marin's target gets the "no feedback" line regardless of what power they use. So bladescape isn't necessarily claiming a info-gathering power.

In fact, he might be claiming a non-info-gatherer explicitly. The only way to be sure your "no info" is from Marin and not another source* is if you couldn't get that line from your power. Though I wouldn't be surprised if town!bladescape is being overconfident in his claim about Marin to 1) share info with town and 2) misdirect wolves about his power.
*assuming other powers can mess with results. I think that's the case but aren't reading through the powers again yet.

AV: are you just proposing mechanical possibilities to help us understand the game, or also making an argument that bladescape is probably a lying wolf?
---

Votewise, I'm comfortable with Allando or flat_footed, so I'll leave my vote where it is.

Snowblaze

2023-04-28, 07:34 AM

Mmm. Disagree with AV's logic but don't particularly feel like debating it. Does seem pretty town!AV though I think. (Though it being ages since I played with wolf!AV might mean my paranoia isn't as strong as it should be. Still decent confidence though.)

(Also if bladescape is a wolf it probably means my view of gamestate is badly wrong somewhere and I don't currently feel that's the case. Though, you know, that doesn't mean it isn't.)

Also also mechanical note: I struggle to see a world where Nash isn't in the game considering the whole point of this setup is "wolves don't have a nightkill". And Quattro should always be guessing people are Nash, regardless of whether we know what other Barian roles are in the game.

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Eh, let's see.

AvatarVecna/Batcathat/bladescape/CaoimhinTheCape/JeenLeen/Let'sGetKraken. Probably no more than one wolf in those.

That's six names, plus one me and one dead town, six more left.

Allando/Book Wombat/flat_footed/Illven/Lady Serpentine/Persolus is hence the POE.

Yeah. That feels okay, I think, no reason there can't be 2+ wolves in here.

Ti, Persolus, same question as for Illven: can I get some form of reads list/explanation of your view of the game, please?

Wombat, do you still suspect Caoimhin? Do you have any other reads?

bladescape

2023-04-28, 07:46 AM

It being not the optimal play for Marin doesn't mean Marin didn't do it.

It just means AV isn't a wolf.

AvatarVecna

2023-04-28, 07:50 AM

Based on no NK, we know Nash is in play.
If bladescape is honest, we know Marin is in play.
I assume Vector is in play to give wolves safe fakeclaims.

I don't think there'd be 4 wolves in a game this small, especially as Xi doesn't view the "Nash votesteal" as weak (if I read her post in Central right).
So likely 3 wolves, and it's likely Nash, Marin, and Vector.

I think 3 wolves would be very weird if one of them is Nash. Cultists always throw off the balance, although admittedly Nash is weaker than standard cultist so maybe that balances things out.

AV: are you just proposing mechanical possibilities to help us understand the game, or also making an argument that bladescape is probably a lying wolf?

I was asked why I was squinting at blade. This is why. I think "town!blade was targeted by Mirin" requires Mirin to be more or less throwing, and I think "scum!blade is pretending Mirin is in play for towncred" has at least three reasons why that might be a good play for wolves.

I'm sure you can imagine how happy I am to spend time and effort typing up a wall answering the question only to be met with two separate people going "I disagree but I'm not gonna bother explaining why".

EDIT: Like wow I sure am glad the possibility blade is a lying wolf trying to manipulate us into chasing ghosts and the possibility that AV is trying to cast shade on blade isn't worth digging into.

Batcathat

2023-04-28, 07:59 AM

Not sure what to think about the AV/blade thing. I'm not really paranoid about either of them at the moment (which might be worrying in itself, since they are probably the two people I'm usually the most paranoid about.)

Also, yes, be aware someone's vote probably won't count and a wolf's will probably count twice. So... actually let me run numbers.

We should also keep in mind that there are potential vote powers among town. I feel like something like Kari is a bit like a vig, in that it's great for town if they're accurate but can cause problems if they aren't.

I think 3 wolves would be very weird if one of them is Nash. Cultists always throw off the balance, although admittedly Nash is weaker than standard cultist so maybe that balances things out.

It might also be potentially balanced by town possibly having a cult-like mechanic with the lovers, which on one hand could lead to several townies dying at once but could also basically win the game if they turn a wolf.

AvatarVecna

2023-04-28, 08:05 AM

Not sure what to think about the AV/blade thing. I'm not really paranoid about either of them at the moment (which might be worrying in itself, since they are probably the two people I'm usually the most paranoid about.)

We should also keep in mind that there are potential vote powers among town. I feel like something like Kari is a bit like a vig, in that it's great for town if they're accurate but can cause problems if they aren't.

It might also be potentially balanced by town possibly having a cult-like mechanic with the lovers, which on one hand could lead to several townies dying at once but could also basically win the game if they turn a wolf.

The town cult is opt-in only. Astral targets Lover N, and N maybe choose to change their wincon to match Yuma/Astral or not. If a wolf turns, it's likely because they're the last one left and we'd essentially already one (because all but one wolf was dead, and the last one was in the lovers, so they're already dead they just don't know it yet). I guess it's theoretically possible that Yuma lovers a wolf early, and the wolf betrays the rest of wolf team immediately, in which case the game could be essentially over SoD2? But it doesn't look like that happened. :smalltongue:

Admittedly, game's got enough moving parts that it's possible a wolf might turn sometime before they're the last one left, but that's hard to predict. Honestly the more interesting possibility to me is if Yuma adds Don to the Lover group.

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The thing I was gonna check after breakfast was to see if the narration would give clues as to who's in the game, but it looks like no? Too many names, and basically all the Barians are named.

Illven

2023-04-28, 08:08 AM

Well I disagree with Vecna on "What if Marion isn't a voider." Cause they strike me as VERY similar to a voider. I agree with them on why target Blade and let them know Marion is in the game.

The difference between a blade scry, and anyone elses scry is not so much greater as to tell them "Hey the beast/voider is in game."

My reads.

I trust Vecna enough now to note. My most tragic memory is related to my role.

As for wolf reads.

Let's see. I suppose Persolus could be overcompensating for my "Over eagerness is a wolf sign from them." But I don't think that's true.

Ti. She's just been low posting in a bunch of games recently. I hope everything's okay.

Allando Is a likely wolf, same reason as Caedorous.

I'd need to re-read the other three wolves that snowblaze thinks is likely.

Allando

AvatarVecna

2023-04-28, 08:10 AM

I trust Vecna enough now to note. My most tragic memory is related to my role.

Oohhhh okay. I'm willing to reciprocate. Praise be to Aidia.

EDIT: Don't think too deep on it. Just about names is all.

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-28, 08:28 AM

I think 3 wolves would be very weird if one of them is Nash. Cultists always throw off the balance, although admittedly Nash is weaker than standard cultist so maybe that balances things out.

To be clear I do think that you've made a good argument for blade possibly lying - I just don't necessarily agree with your logic around the Marin actions. Them not using their power comes at the cost of being otherwise perfectly passive, I just don't think it's as clear-cut as you are making it out to be. I am not sold on Blade being town and your arguments helped with that.

However I do disagree with the bit of quoted logic above - Cultists throw off balance, but also the wolves (seemingly) have no night kill, so I could see a 3-wolf world here.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, since wolves can coordinate - the amount of uncontested suspicion onto Allando almost makes me think he is not a wolf. Same reason I did not switch to Caedorus T1.

AvatarVecna

2023-04-28, 08:32 AM

To be clear I do think that you've made a good argument for blade possibly lying - I just don't necessarily agree with your logic around the Marin actions. Them not using their power comes at the cost of being otherwise perfectly passive, I just don't think it's as clear-cut as you are making it out to be. I am not sold on Blade being town and your arguments helped with that.

However I do disagree with the bit of quoted logic above - Cultists throw off balance, but also the wolves (seemingly) have no night kill, so I could see a 3-wolf world here.

Default cult game has no kill either, just the conversion. A game where cult's only power is converting people almost always ends up having a balance issue where 1 starting cultist is too few (game could end immediately), but 2 starting cultists can easily be too many (quickly spirals beyond town's ability to recover). The lack of a kill isn't the weirdness here, it's that the cult is only stealing votes, rather than votes and powers.

Batcathat

2023-04-28, 08:35 AM

Also, since wolves can coordinate - the amount of uncontested suspicion onto Allando almost makes me think he is not a wolf. Same reason I did not switch to Caedorus T1.

As I suggested earlier, I think one possibility is flat and Allando both being wolves and having decided that one of them might have to be sacrificed for the other to look better, which would explain the lack of push back (along with it still being quite far from EoD).

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-28, 08:37 AM

As I suggested earlier, I think one possibility is flat and Allando both being wolves and having decided that one of them might have to be sacrificed for the other to look better, which would explain the lack of push back (along with it still being quite far from EoD).

I am okay with this as an option but we really need to stop killing the brothers day 1 & 2 :smalltongue:

Illven

2023-04-28, 08:44 AM

Oohhhh okay. I'm willing to reciprocate. Praise be to Aidia.

EDIT: Don't think too deep on it. Just about names is all.

Well, Hello Priestess~

Batcathat

2023-04-28, 08:45 AM

I am okay with this as an option but we really need to stop killing the brothers day 1 & 2 :smalltongue:

Heh. :smallamused: For what it's worth, I think flat would be a better lynch than Allando (since if flat's a wolf, that makes me even more suspicious of Allando, but I'm not sure the opposite is true).

bladescape

2023-04-28, 08:55 AM

Btw I can confirm Mirin is a voider.

Book Wombat

2023-04-28, 08:59 AM

Wombat, do you still suspect Caoimhin? Do you have any other reads?

It was a gut feeling, so I don't know.

Anyway, I would have agreed with AV that Marin seems more like a feedback-replacer rather than an actual voider (except in the case it information powers of course), but bladescape says the opposite? Will have to think about it.

Illven

2023-04-28, 09:02 AM

Oh, I'd ask if Bladescape cares to share what they allegedly tried last night, but I'd imagine they don't. :smalltongue:

JeenLeen

2023-04-28, 09:10 AM

Initial thoughts on AV/bladescape:
I wouldn't put this past a AV/bladescape wolf-pair, but it seems too odd to do it while neither have any heat. Well, I guess that's actually the safest time to protect your scumbuddy... but both of them can be tricksey enough that WIFOM spirals a ton. I have a townread gut on both of them, but don't trust it a ton. AV didn't vote bladescape, so her words don't have a lot of weight.

I think I get AV's point. Here's why (might be rephrasing/summarizing her argument, but I'm trying to put it into my words/thought process):
Most any townie, if targeted by Marin, would share "I got targeted by Marin". The wolves know if Marin is out there and know who Marin targeted. It doesn't hurt town at all to share that info.
The only risk is outting oneself to the wolves as an info-gatherer or not. In that regard, bladescape is an odd choice because he's more likely to sow misinformation alongside telling the town. (I'm reminded of Valmark's game where he softclaimed baner as vanillager and such was incredibly helpful for town.) So, yeah, choosing bladescape was suboptimal as he's less likely to leak extra info while sharing useful info.
But, as bladescape noted, a suboptimal plan does not mean the wolves didn't do it. Just means AV isn't a wolf (or, if you want WIFOM/paranoia, she is a wolf, wolves targeted bladescape, and this entire conversation was preplanned to discredit blade and gain AV towncred. But I'd rather not contemplate that many layers of deception.)

That's if bladescape is town. Now to ponder if he's wolf.
If Marin is not in play, I could see wolf!bladescape making this claim. It gains towncred, sows misinformation, and doesn't hurt the wolves at all.
If Marin is in play... there's still those reasons for wolf!bladescape to make this claim. At first I was thinking it wouldn't be worthwhile to risk wasting a void N1, but, as AV pointed out, the odds of actually hitting an info-gatherer are low. Perhaps it would make sense to wait N1, say you were targeted by Marin, and by D3 when a real townie has been targeted you are basically considered town. Yeah, I can see that play as a tricksey play. And bladescape is tricksey enough to propose it.

All that said, others looks more suspicious. And I don't think the "bladescape is a lying wolf" is very likely. But I'll warrant it's a believable scenario.

Oohhhh okay. I'm willing to reciprocate. Praise be to Aidia.

EDIT: Don't think too deep on it. Just about names is all.

FYI: in a prior game, Illven effectively claimed a role to AV via alluding to a play-by-post game both were in. I assume this is the same thing, and AV now knows what role Illven is claiming.
(Of course, if Vector is in play, doesn't mean Illven isn't a wolf claiming a safe fakeclaim.)

AvatarVecna

2023-04-28, 09:12 AM

Oh, I'd ask if Bladescape cares to share what they allegedly tried last night, but I'd imagine they don't. :smalltongue:

Frankly I think blade has already said too much, but I guess they've got a better perspective on that than I do if they're town so I'll trust their judgement.

Snowblaze

2023-04-28, 09:18 AM

I'm sure you can imagine how happy I am to spend time and effort typing up a wall answering the question only to be met with two separate people going "I disagree but I'm not gonna bother explaining why".

EDIT: Like wow I sure am glad the possibility blade is a lying wolf trying to manipulate us into chasing ghosts and the possibility that AV is trying to cast shade on blade isn't worth digging into.
Yeah, sorry.

It's just. a) I think both you and bladescape are town independently of (and in your case because of) this thing;

b) I don't think I can write up the kind of super-detailed well-articulated case that would convince you you're wrong (my counter-arguments would be pretty similar to what Kraken said, I believe);

and c) I think my play gets significantly worse if I start getting sucked into long wallposty debates on a specific issue so I'm choosing not to do that.

Heh. :smallamused: For what it's worth, I think flat would be a better lynch than Allando (since if flat's a wolf, that makes me even more suspicious of Allando, but I'm not sure the opposite is true).
...didn't you say earlier that you thought flat was only a wolf with Allando? And therefore wouldn't it make more sense to vote Allando over flat because if the former flips town it would clear the latter?

Will dig into Illven's reads in a second.

JeenLeen

2023-04-28, 09:20 AM

Btw I can confirm Mirin is a voider.

So bladescape is claiming an info-gathering role.
Whether he's lying to sow misinfo to wolves at the expense of probably-irrelevant misinfo to town... that's the question. The question he shouldn't answer.

Oh, I'd ask if Bladescape cares to share what they allegedly tried last night, but I'd imagine they don't. :smalltongue:

I don't like this.
While it can look like just poking fun at bladescape for his enigmatic nature, it also looks like a wolf hoping to get him to leak info he shouldn't share.
flat_footed and Allando still look more suspicious to me, though...

Wolfleans: Allando, flat_footed
Kinda suspicious (but not strong): Batcathat*, Illven, Cao*
Kinda towny (but not strong): bladescape, AV, Kraken*
I'll probably have an opinion on Snowblaze once I reread and think through things better.

*This feeling is mostly from D1. I want to reread these two in light of the D1 flip, and also see if I really think they (or anyone else) was trying to shut down AV's discussion of Marin. As none have much/any heat today, might wait until D2, when we have more info, to do solid analysis on them.
Fairly neutral on most everyone else. Some gut feelings, but I don't trust them.

Batcathat

2023-04-28, 09:26 AM

...didn't you say earlier that you thought flat was only a wolf with Allando? And therefore wouldn't it make more sense to vote Allando over flat because if the former flips town it would clear the latter?
.

No, but maybe I phrased something weirdly? Anyhow, my reasoning (and feel free to check it for holes) is that if flat’s a wolf, voting Caedorus when he did is a strange move (since he might get heat after Caed flips) unless it’s to save a wolf buddy. So if Allando flips wolf, flat might still just be a townie who made the wrong choice, but if flat flips wolf, Allando seems like a likely buddy.

Snowblaze

2023-04-28, 09:27 AM

My thought process is that Caedrous is more likely to be a wolf. I remember that I had to control their Cain instinct in Tarot club and thus they may be more inclined to murder Allando without me checking them in.

Well I disagree with Vecna on "What if Marion isn't a voider." Cause they strike me as VERY similar to a voider. I agree with them on why target Blade and let them know Marion is in the game.

The difference between a blade scry, and anyone elses scry is not so much greater as to tell them "Hey the beast/voider is in game."

My reads.

I trust Vecna enough now to note. My most tragic memory is related to my role.

As for wolf reads.

Let's see. I suppose Persolus could be overcompensating for my "Over eagerness is a wolf sign from them." But I don't think that's true.

Ti. She's just been low posting in a bunch of games recently. I hope everything's okay.

Allando Is a likely wolf, same reason as Caedorous.

I'd need to re-read the other three wolves that snowblaze thinks is likely.

Allando

That's not a list of likely wolves, it's a list of "people I don't have reason to townread".

Eh, Persolus being less engaged being towny is a thought I had, but I don't know how much I actually believed in it, I guess.

The Allando thing I don't really get though? Because I checked your reason to suspect Caedorus (trying to get his brother killed; see spoiler) and it seems like you're applying it to Caedorus in particular due to previous experience wolfing with him, and thus it wouldn't generalise to Allando.

Or did you have different reasons for suspecting Caedorus that I missed/you didn't mention?

- - - Updated - - -

No, but maybe I phrased something weirdly? Anyhow, my reasoning (and feel free to check it for holes) is that if flat’s a wolf, voting Caedorus when he did is a strange move (since he might get heat after Caed flips) unless it’s to save a wolf buddy. So if Allando flips wolf, flat might still just be a townie who made the wrong choice, but if flat flips wolf, Allando seems like a likely buddy.

Your first point is basically what I'm saying you said and what you're saying you didn't say, in my interpretation.

"If flat is a wolf, it's a strange move unless it's to save a partner" implies "if flat is a wolf, so is Allando" implies "if Allando is town, so is flat" implies "killing flat before Allando is wasting a mislynch in town!Allando worlds".

But that also might be me projecting my own logic onto you when most people probably don't think about the game the same way I do.

bladescape

2023-04-28, 09:36 AM

Frankly I think blade has already said too much, but I guess they've got a better perspective on that than I do if they're town so I'll trust their judgement.

You're right, to be fair.

Snowblaze

2023-04-28, 09:39 AM

Wolfleans: Allando, flat_footed
Kinda suspicious (but not strong): Batcathat*, Illven, Cao*
Kinda towny (but not strong): bladescape, AV, Kraken*
I'll probably have an opinion on Snowblaze once I reread and think through things better.

*This feeling is mostly from D1. I want to reread these two in light of the D1 flip, and also see if I really think they (or anyone else) was trying to shut down AV's discussion of Marin. As none have much/any heat today, might wait until D2, when we have more info, to do solid analysis on them.
Fairly neutral on most everyone else. Some gut feelings, but I don't trust them.
It is D2, do you mean D3?

Also I would appreciate it if you did get to those this phase, if you have time. Should help me either gain more confidence in townreads or realise why they could be wrong.

Also also do you think shutting down the discussion of Marin is wolfy? Why/why not?

Also also also I just realised that in worlds where Allando/flat are town we're kind of screwed.

Everyone: top wolfread outside of flat/Allando, please. Reasons preferable.

Mine is pending Illven's response to my question and Persolus and Ti doing stuff.

(Me: "oh, it's fine, I feel decent about my current worldview, I don't need to tinfoil AV/bladescape". Me, half an hour later: "actually wait my worldview might be wrong". Lolme.)

Going to try and get some RL stuff done, back in some indefinite amount of time.

bladescape

2023-04-28, 09:41 AM

Everyone: top wolfread outside of flat/Allando, please. Reasons preferable.

Ti or Kraken.

Ti because unusual play.

Kraken because they're standing on the big red square that says "If Allando is town this is where I'd look."

Also they said something earlier that made me feel very iffy if Allando was town.

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-28, 09:49 AM

Ti or Kraken.

Ti because unusual play.

Kraken because they're standing on the big red square that says "If Allando is town this is where I'd look."

Also they said something earlier that made me feel very iffy if Allando was town.

Hm, I don't like this. Not only because it points at me, but because it's very much setting up me as the next lynch if Allando flips town - which a wolf would know would happen. It's not firmly wolfy because it was in response to a question, but it feels hedgy in a way that I dislike.

https://forums.giantitp.com/images/sand/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Snowblaze https://forums.giantitp.com/images/sand/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://forums.giantitp.com/showthread.php?p=25767033#post25767033)
Everyone: top wolfread outside of flat/Allando, please. Reasons preferable.

Aside from you - I'm still suspicious from D1 behaviour - I'd say Caohimn or JeenLeen. Both had suspiciously substantive posts after suspicion might have turned to them. Illven is also giving me gut pings but that might just be residual from last game :smalltongue:

bladescape

2023-04-28, 09:51 AM

Hm, I don't like this. Not only because it points at me, but because it's very much setting up me as the next lynch if Allando flips town - which a wolf would know would happen. It's not firmly wolfy because it was in response to a question, but it feels hedgy in a way that I dislike.

https://forums.giantitp.com/images/sand/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Snowblaze https://forums.giantitp.com/images/sand/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://forums.giantitp.com/showthread.php?p=25767033#post25767033)
Everyone: top wolfread outside of flat/Allando, please. Reasons preferable.

Aside from you - I'm still suspicious from D1 behaviour - I'd say Caohimn or JeenLeen. Both had suspiciously substantive posts after suspicion might have turned to them. Illven is also giving me gut pings but that might just be residual from last game :smalltongue:

We can do it in a different order if you'd prefer, Mr Let'sGetKraken?

:smalltongue:

Illven

2023-04-28, 09:57 AM

Eh, my thought is that the siblings are likely similar. (due to similar nature vs nurture.) Plus something I didn't notice day 1. (Cause work is ****ing awful and keeps leaving me by myself to handle a two person job.) is that Caedorus switched their vote, while Allando keep there's on Cae all day.

JeenLeen

2023-04-28, 09:59 AM

It is D2, do you mean D3?

Yes.

Also I would appreciate it if you did get to those this phase, if you have time. Should help me either gain more confidence in townreads or realise why they could be wrong.

I'll work on it. I need to do some actual "my job" work, but I should be able to fit this in by this afternoon.

Also also do you think shutting down the discussion of Marin is wolfy? Why/why not?

In short, shutting down conversation looks wolfy, especially if bladescape flips wolf.

When I first read through D2's posts, I felt like AV's discussion of Marin was sidetracking more pertinent stuff. Basically changing the flow of the conversation from analysis/wolfhunting to mechanical discussion. (Note this was me skim-reading walls of text early morning. My reading comprehension wasn't great.)

But then I realized it was building an argument against bladescape, and thus was very pertinent. Or, rather, I suspected that was it so I asked AV explicitly and then she confirmed. And also she called out folk not giving full responses. That part was persuasive to me, even if her overall argument that bladescape claiming Marin is a good wolf ploy is not super convincing. (As I said, I get the idea, and it's believable, but I'm not willing to vote bladescape because he claimed the voider hit him.)

So trying to shut down the talk could be protecting wolf!bladescape and/or casting shade at town!AV. Or WIFOM to make folk think a wolf is protecting bladescape, but y'all know how WIFOM spirals.
When I reread, I'll try to get a sense of if folk (if wolf) really were trying to shut down conversation or were just "wall of text about hypotheticals is hard to parse".

Allando

2023-04-28, 10:02 AM

On Allando: apparently I missed this last night so scratch the questions that came with the vote.

Mmm. If I squint I can see things I like here but then...

...which I'm not so much a fan of, especially since it... doesn't really fit with the previous post?

Can you talk me through the progression between the bolded lines, please? How did you go from "it doesn't make sense why wolves would do this, but here's a possibility that might somehow have occurred" to "this is almost certainly what happened" (since "wolves noticed the softs and got Caedorus killed as a result" follows from the latter bolded line)?

- - - Updated - - -

That was indeed the quote I was thinking of, thanks for finding it.

- - - Updated - - -

Okay, Jeen is the main person in the "potential towncred for lack of TMI" pile.

Also slightly walking back my suspicion of Allando's last post, I initially found it suspicious for over-justifying voting town yesterday but it was actually a response to Jeen which makes that particular point invalid.

- - - Updated - - -

Illven, can I get a reads list/summary of your current thoughts about the game, please? I don't really have an idea of where you stand on anything aorn, which is mildly concerning.

(Incidentally, Illven/bladescape not w/w.)

- - - Updated - - -

Though bladescape is probably town anyway? The claim is part of that but I think in general he's been playing how I expect town!him to play.

(Is it bad that I kind of want to play against wolf!bladescape to see if I end up misclearing him?)
I originally didn't get it, then I realised what could've happened. I'm like 90% sure flat is a wolf who got the hint and really wanted him gone.
All this doesn't hold up if Marin is in play though, because then they could've just targeted Caedorus. Then again, easier to get rid of him than to have to block him every day.

Nash's power is interesting because it's analogous to a cult power, but weaker. Normally, a cultist targets player X, and going forward Player X is voting with scumteam, using powers with scumteam, and sharing thoughts with scumteam. Here, scumteam only gets player X's vote, and anyone "recruited to the cult" detransitions should the cult leader be targeted for death. However, targeting the cult leader for death just gets rid of their vote power; you've gotta kill them a second time before they gain any more, or they have kill protection again. To actually get ahead of the cult leader, you need banes that can protect from culting, voids that can prevent him from culting, or kill powers; "just the lynch" is insufficient.

Also, the game could actually be over today. Say that the scumteam is Nash/Alito.

D1: Starts living 12:2/voting 12:2. Mislynch a non-lover. Ends living 11:2/voting 11:2.
N1: Yuma cults someone into a lover. Nash cults a non-lover into material. Ends living 11:2/voting 10:3.
D2: Starts living 11:2/voting 10:3. Mislynch a non-lover. Ends living 10:2/voting 9:3.
N2: Yuma cults. Nash cults. Alito rolls a 6 on a lover. No other overlaps. Ends 6:2/voting 4:4.
D3: GG EZ PZ NO RE

There are a lot of assumptions here... hm. I hope this isn't going to happen.

- - - Updated - - -

Eh, my thought is that the siblings are likely similar. (due to similar nature vs nurture.) Plus something I didn't notice day 1. (Cause work is ****ing awful and keeps leaving me by myself to handle a two person job.) is that Caedorus switched their vote, while Allando keep there's on Cae all day.

I never changed my vote from Caedorus because he was IMO the most sus. Also I wasn't rlly around for EOD.
And yes, we are similar, in that we both vote each other d1. But saying we're going to always act similarly depending on our alignment is wrong: our roles are different, for one, and we are still separate people.

AvatarVecna

2023-04-28, 10:10 AM

There are a lot of assumptions here... hm. I hope this isn't going to happen.

Oh for sure. It's essentially speculating on a worst-case scenario that doesn't involve townies actively throwing (like I guess it could go faster if Quattro was deliberately targeting townies but like...why?). It was more my musings in regards to Snow being worried that D3 could be LYLO. Because technically, depending on exactly what's happening behind the scenes, today could be LYLO. Theoretically. It probably isn't though. Basically everything would have to go wrong in exactly the right way for today to be LYLO.

CaoimhinTheCape

2023-04-28, 10:24 AM

Just enough time for a quick update but AV/Jeen have jumped up in my reads to join Kracken/Snow as "trust enough to not worry about until we get a better feel for everyone else".

Blade's claim that Marin is in the game is fine but I'll agree with someone (AV I think?) that it's weird that blade would admit to knowledge that it was a void? Seems to give wolves more info than town.

Everyone: top wolfread outside of flat/Allando, please. Reasons preferable.

One of Persolus/Lady Serpentine/Book Wombat as an inactive Wolf. My pick from that group would probably be Persolus - it feels enough to be a Wolf who is genuinely busy but doesn't want to inactive/be seen as inactive. Also...

Hello! I am alive and apologise again for inactivity. Today was also a day, but in the very good direction, so nice but still distracting.

It's quite simple - Nistro targeted someone, they're going to die next phase. Nistro, if you want to step forth and reveal who you targeted, then that's two cleared townies for this voting phase.

This explanation for what happened feels weird to me too. Like, this is after a couple people talked about there being no night kills this game. But he doesn't address that and instead calls out to have a role reveal themselves?

If anyone wants to have Votecounts for this Day phase someone else will have to take over the job. I might have time to catch up when I get home/tomorrow morning early but I can't guarantee it.

Batcathat

2023-04-28, 10:33 AM

Your first point is basically what I'm saying you said and what you're saying you didn't say, in my interpretation.

"If flat is a wolf, it's a strange move unless it's to save a partner" implies "if flat is a wolf, so is Allando" implies "if Allando is town, so is flat" implies "killing flat before Allando is wasting a mislynch in town!Allando worlds".

But that also might be me projecting my own logic onto you when most people probably don't think about the game the same way I do.

Yeah, I'm not really sure of your reasoning either, so probably some mismatched logic. My thought is that there are basically four outcomes:

Allando flips town: Doesn't really say much about flat in either direction. (Maybe some slight town points since a wolf might have voted outside of the wagons if they were t/t?)
Allando flips wolf: Might make flat look a little more wolfy, but he could still easily be a townie who made a poor choice.
flat flips town: Doesn't really tell us much about Allando.
flat flips wolf: Allando looks very wolfy, since it's the best explanation for flat's vote.

But as long as we agree that both of them look suspicious, I suppose we can argue over the details later.

Everyone: top wolfread outside of flat/Allando, please. Reasons preferable.

I would say Cao, Illven and Ti. But it's basically all gut. If I have the time and energy, I should probably reread the thread assuming flat and Allando are town (and knowing Caedorus is) and see if I can think of anything.

Allando

2023-04-28, 10:43 AM

Everyone: top wolfread outside of flat/Allando, please. Reasons preferable.

I'm sus of Illven mainly, (aside from my 99% wolfread, Flat_Footed)

- - - Updated - - -

How do I look at a specific person's iso? Looking for a specific Illven post.

Batcathat

2023-04-28, 10:52 AM

How do I look at a specific person's iso? Looking for a specific Illven post.

Click the number of replies to the thread, then click the number of posts for the specific person.

JeenLeen

2023-04-28, 10:59 AM

Reread some stuff.

D1 general things to remember:
1) AV said Book Wombat looked wolfy D1 in post 52. Book Wombat was shading Cao in post 51. Book Wombat replies "just going with my gut" in 59.
2) if Allando flips wolf, bladescape likely town. Vote was close at end of D1, and he could have easily moved his vote. Some towncred to Snowblaze, too.

I tried doing an ISO, but got lost in my notes.
So I'm going back to just rereading then quoting the ones I find particularly relevant while doing general thoughts.

General N1 Chatter: I generally frown on nightchat unless it's important legacy intel or to spread misinfo.
Book Wombat's post seems odd, but I think some towncred. A wolf wouldn't want to draw Trey's attention to this facet of the power, while a townie might want to make it clear.
I don't like how much Kraken or Snowblaze talked, but it seems harmless, e.g., not super-likely to help wolves aim. Still, a little suspicious. Same to Allando and Batcathat. Especially if we assume most of them believed a NK was being aimed.

Ending night, overall town lean on Snowblaze and Kraken. Although they suspect each other (or at least Kraken suspects Snowblaze), both seem sincere.
Could definitely see Batcathat as a wolf. But mostly gut pings, nothing solid, and I've got those from him as either alignment in the past.

Kraken
From D1 and night chatter, I'm pretty sure Kraken and Snowblaze are not both wolves.

doing the rest in the next post, as I'm trying to clear my "Reply+" cache

Allando

2023-04-28, 10:59 AM

My name is Heather Harrington and my sacred luck magic calls Caedorus to the stand.

The person voting Caedorus everyone is forgetting about.

Allando Is a likely wolf, same reason as Caedorous.

Who was town. Proven town before this post.

Oh, I'd ask if Bladescape cares to share what they allegedly tried last night, but I'd imagine they don't. :smalltongue:

Trying to get ppl to claim, perhaps?

Eh, my thought is that the siblings are likely similar. (due to similar nature vs nurture.) Plus something I didn't notice day 1. (Cause work is ****ing awful and keeps leaving me by myself to handle a two person job.) is that Caedorus switched their vote, while Allando keep there's on Cae all day.

Already reacted to this one.
All this looks very Wolfy to me, so Illven is second on my sus list.

bladescape

2023-04-28, 11:08 AM

but I'll agree with someone (AV I think?) that it's weird that blade would admit to knowledge that it was a void? Seems to give wolves more info than town.

I'm sure the wolves have absolutely no one they can ask or poke to get further clarity we don't get about their powers. .-.

AvatarVecna

2023-04-28, 11:21 AM

I'm sure the wolves have absolutely no one they can ask or poke to get further clarity we don't get about their powers. .-.

Wolves would've already known it was a void, that's true. But they wouldn't have known that you know it's a void.

JeenLeen

2023-04-28, 11:33 AM

Kraken cont., and on shutting down AV

I buy Snowblaze's explanation of just not wanting to get into the mess of 'what if's in AV vs bladescape.
Could be a wolf laughing from the sidelines, but... well, I definitely get not wanting to dig into that after digging into it myself.
Also, AV mostly feels town. She could do all that as a wolf, but it has a sincere feel. bladescape isn't cleared in my eyes by any means, but I think honesty is more likely than not.

I actually was about to say that I wanted to see more from you and Persolus, but this is great stuff. Largely NAI at this point since you did have some sus on you and a wolf might do a deep dive like this to secure town status (I know I did in Mysterium), but happy to see activity.

Is it rude of me to ask how you're alive, Blade? Or is that info detrimental if it's revealed now?

Edit: Ah no I am an idiot. I thought that was the dice-destroy power. That tracks. This actually seems townish for me, since this is a bold ****ing claim if someone else got Marin'd. Could be a wolf claiming but feels a little more townish here.

Persolus for pressure.

Seems towny.
Doesn't feel like a wolf trying to fake misunderstanding a wolf power. Also like the perssure on Persolus to encourage activity, though I guess that looks bad if flat_footed and/or Allando are wolves.

This is all valid.... but now bladescape has locked themselves into claiming a targeting power that can provide a result normally (otherwise he would not be certain that it was Marin and not just a power failing). It reduces the space to claim in. I would expect to see it from a wolf under pressure, but without much on blade this feels more townish to me.

I don't think blade really locked himself into this, as I've noted in my "blade could be a lying towny spreading misinfo to wolves" post.
But valid points. it is risky for a wolf to try to look like a lying towny, so why take the extra risk?
On the other hand, if Vector is in play, wolf!bladescape could do this safely if an info-gatherer is not in play.

I mean, this is a very pretty wall of text making quite a lot of assumptions that I largely personally disagree with, but it does seem townish, I think? This doesn't feel wolfish to me. AV already has one iron in the fire with the passive claim hint, going out on a limb like this and taking a massive swing at blade feels like... not wolfy behaviour.

Anyway, all that to say - most town powers are still somewhat beneficial. Why wouldn't Marin use their ability? Is sitting there doing nothing really better than actively trying to disrupt? Sure, it means we need to vig Marin, but we don't know who they are and (now that our pseudo-seer is dead) largely lack the ability to do so. Our way of discovering Marin is likely just by lynching them. So that especially feels like a weak argument. I can see your logic, but it is certainly not universal and makes quite a few assumptions about their behaviour.

Doesn't feel like shutting down AV, but explaining.

To be clear I do think that you've made a good argument for blade possibly lying - I just don't necessarily agree with your logic around the Marin actions. Them not using their power comes at the cost of being otherwise perfectly passive, I just don't think it's as clear-cut as you are making it out to be. I am not sold on Blade being town and your arguments helped with that.

However I do disagree with the bit of quoted logic above - Cultists throw off balance, but also the wolves (seemingly) have no night kill, so I could see a 3-wolf world here.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, since wolves can coordinate - the amount of uncontested suspicion onto Allando almost makes me think he is not a wolf. Same reason I did not switch to Caedorus T1.

Ditto

I am okay with this as an option but we really need to stop killing the brothers day 1 & 2 :smalltongue:

NAI. Maybe protecting Allando, so kinda NAGL if Allando flips wolf, but mostly NAI. Just metacommentary.

Hm, I don't like this. Not only because it points at me, but because it's very much setting up me as the next lynch if Allando flips town - which a wolf would know would happen. It's not firmly wolfy because it was in response to a question, but it feels hedgy in a way that I dislike.

Aside from you - I'm still suspicious from D1 behaviour - I'd say Caohimn or JeenLeen. Both had suspiciously substantive posts after suspicion might have turned to them. Illven is also giving me gut pings but that might just be residual from last game :smalltongue:
NOTE: this quote got garbled a little in quoting due to HTML tags. If I changed anything, not intentional. First line was in response to bladescape, next one to Snowblaze

Sounds fair.
Good cautious read on Cao.
I loathe sounding defensive, but what was "suspicion might have turned to [me]"? I didn't read everything very clearly, but if someone had a question for me I'd be happy to answer.

All in all, Kraken reads town to me. Participating and disagreeing with some others (AV, Snowblaze), but sounds legitimate. Without a mechanical reason or a death flip incriminating him, I'll consider him town.
The only suspicious thing is saying there was/was-going-to-be heat on me when I don't think there was any. A wolf trying to recast D1 or cast shade on someone? Still, seems a bad wolf move as it's a lie to get caught in; I'm inclined to believe I missed someone accusing me more than he's a wolf making that move.

- - - Updated - - -

Townlean: Book Wombat (seems unlikely would do that Night post if wolf), Kraken (described)
Weak townlean: AV, bladescape, Snowblaze (could be wolf, but she's been driving conversation a lot. If Allando flips wolf, strong town)
Weak wolflean: Cao (don't quite buy it, but yeah, some sus there), Illven (basically ditto), Batchat (need to reread still)
Strong wolflean: Allando, flat_footed (though if Allando is town, this goes away)

Snowblaze has written so much I'm not going to try to do an ISO, but she's either town or a wolf driving conversation. If the latter, that's bad since she can influence discussion, but I feel like it's doing some good. And she's had enough real life excuses to quiet down if she was just helping town. Anyway, leaning town on her.

Batcathat later. Cao below.

Cao ISO
Or at least I think I found them all

Hoo boy, it's been a while. I guess I'll throw a Vote: Book Wombat out there cause why not. Is there any new meta I should be aware of that changed since I last played?

Also want to ask about roles...

I saw there was basically a non-answer in the recruitment thread about "Battle Position". Does this mean anything to anyone? The fact that he's called "the Load" makes me think it doesn't do anything but I might just not know something.

And are we worried about the Neutral being in the game at all? Is 14 roles too small for a 3P?

Vote Count
Snowblaze (1): LetsGetKraken,
BatCatHat (1): AvatarVecna,
LetsGetKraken (1): Snowblaze
Allondo (1): Persolus, Caedorus,
Bladescape (1): flat_footed
Caedorus (2): Allondo, Illven
CaoimhinTheCape (1): BookWombat
Illven (1): BatCatHat,
AvatarVecna (1): JeenLeen
BookWombat (1): CaoimhinTheCape
No Vote: Lady Serpentine, Bladescape

Mostly NAI.
I don't like his asking about the power, since it's unlikely to help town ("the Load" should know; rest of us don't need to). But mechanical speculation seems... well, I at least emphasize a lot with wanting to talk mech.

Snow, your most recent votecount looks good to me.

I don't buy the suspicion on Kracken. If anything, that post feels like it's shutting down a possible AV wagon regardless of what was before it so unless Kracken/AV are both Wolves I don't see any case to build around it.

I'm not convinced 100% convinced that Snow is a Wolf based on that Kracken suspicion but I'm fine enough with having pressure on Snow. Actually, I really like Kracken's post directly above this, that's swaying me more than Jeen's post was.

On that note, I'm also eyeing the Caedorus "wagon". Which is basically two random votes plus this post from BatCatHat:

I'm not convinced that a Wolf would see someone else give a hint and then decide to draw attention to themselves and claim the same thing. Maybe I just don't know Caedorus and they would do that but it feels like a weird reason to make someone the lead wagon BatCatHat

Side note: Lady Serpentine is listed as a player and I believe hasn't posted yet.

Vote Count
Snowblaze (2): LetsGetKraken, JeenLeen
BatCatHat (2): AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape
LetsGetKraken (1): Snowblaze
Allondo (1): Persolus
Bladescape (1): flat_footed
Caedorus (3): Allondo, Illven, BatCatHat
CaoimhinTheCape (1): BookWombat
BookWombat (1): Bladescape
Persolus (1): Caedorus
No Vote: LadySerpentine

Hard to read this. Voted Batcathat, so I doubt both of them are wolves.

I'll try to put in more time and post more this phase but I'm not gonna be around as much as I was in years past. Did a reads list of everyone for Day 1 at least and looking at the Caedorus wagon is probably the place to start.

Let'sGetKracken is a decently confident Town read for me. Engaging with everyone plenty and just gives off town vibes.

Snowblaze I'm not 100% sold on as Town but I'm sold on her being an active player who is contributing. That's enough for me right now, as the game goes on I know I'll have more to look back at and make a decision on.

JeenLeen doesn't have too many posts but they are comparatively longer and it gives me more of an engaged town vibe than the one line posts of most other players. Wouldn't call it a Town lean but a "don't need to deal with right now" lean.

Avatar Vecna's main talking points in the thread have been about a potential role hint. Want more but it's AV so it's not like this is out of character.

Book Wombat is sort of in the same boat as AV in my mind. There's nothing that I feel is super out of character for Book but there's nothing that's giving town vibes and I don't want to wait forever to figure him out.

bladscape joints this group of "their play makes sense for them, which means I don't have any read yet".

BatCatHat on a reread is looking more like normal but also... I don't like that his post turned Caedorus into an actual wagon with some justification. I have a nagging feeling that it's Wolf motivated to get rid of at least one person who soft claimed a role so it's not a problem later.

Allando isn't looking great now that Caedorus has flipped Town. I can't decide if I like that he posted more than the other people who voted Caedorus or it feels like a Wolf trying to show some sort of activity. Hopefully gonna figure that out today.

flat_footed doesn't look good to me. Only two posts are a random vote and then the last vote on Caedorus. It's a bit obvious for a wolf to be the last vote on a Townie but could have been meant to help protect Allanfo, Snow, or BatCatHat against last minute vote switching (it was about 2 hours before deadline).

Illven feels suspicious to me as well. I don't know if this sort of activity is normal, but a random vote that stuck through the day, commenting a couple times on AV, and then a post basically saying they're happy with their vote.

Persolus Is in the "need more info" zone too but gets a little less leeway than Lady Serpentine since he was around at the beginning of the Day at least.

Lady Serpentine hasn't posted enough for me to get a definite read on.

Copying over the End of Day 1 votecount to have it somewhere.

Caedorus 4: Allando, Illven, Batcathat, flat_footed
Allando 3: Persolus, bladescape, Snowblaze
Snowblaze 2: Let'sGetKraken, JeenLeen
Batcathat 3: AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape, Caedorus
Let'sGetKraken 1: Lady Serpentine
CaoimhinTheCape 1: Book Wombat

I have similar feelings to most of what he says. Hard to see if my bias is making me townread him or not. Towny vibes, but as Kraken noted, could be a wolf trying to look more towny.

Just enough time for a quick update but AV/Jeen have jumped up in my reads to join Kracken/Snow as "trust enough to not worry about until we get a better feel for everyone else".

Blade's claim that Marin is in the game is fine but I'll agree with someone (AV I think?) that it's weird that blade would admit to knowledge that it was a void? Seems to give wolves more info than town.

One of Persolus/Lady Serpentine/Book Wombat as an inactive Wolf. My pick from that group would probably be Persolus - it feels enough to be a Wolf who is genuinely busy but doesn't want to inactive/be seen as inactive. Also...

This explanation for what happened feels weird to me too. Like, this is after a couple people talked about there being no night kills this game. But he doesn't address that and instead calls out to have a role reveal themselves?

If anyone wants to have Votecounts for this Day phase someone else will have to take over the job. I might have time to catch up when I get home/tomorrow morning early but I can't guarantee it.

Feels towny, but kinda neutral.

Anyway, no strong read on Cao. I get why, and am kinda persuaded by, some suspicion on him. But others (Illven, flat_footed, Allando) look worse.

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-28, 11:53 AM

I loathe sounding defensive, but what was "suspicion might have turned to [me]"? I didn't read everything very clearly, but if someone had a question for me I'd be happy to answer.

All in all, Kraken reads town to me. Participating and disagreeing with some others (AV, Snowblaze), but sounds legitimate. Without a mechanical reason or a death flip incriminating him, I'll consider him town.
The only suspicious thing is saying there was/was-going-to-be heat on me when I don't think there was any. A wolf trying to recast D1 or cast shade on someone? Still, seems a bad wolf move as it's a lie to get caught in; I'm inclined to believe I missed someone accusing me more than he's a wolf making that move.

What comfortable pockets!

I meant more that you weren't active much D1 and we were starting to really put pressure on inactive players. Your burst of activity - which may be genuine - is something that can sometimes be a wolf overcompensating for lying low the first day.

Edit: That said, you've been significantly more active to the point at which even if that behaviour still gives me a little bit of suspicious pings, I'm putting you down my sus list.

JeenLeen

2023-04-28, 12:22 PM

What comfortable pockets!

I meant more that you weren't active much D1 and we were starting to really put pressure on inactive players. Your burst of activity - which may be genuine - is something that can sometimes be a wolf overcompensating for lying low the first day.

That's fair. And I appreciate the answer; I can see why that'd seem suspicious.

Batcathat analysis/reread

D1 vote on Illven. NAI.
Some banter with AV after AV's vote and claim banter.

Yeah, wagons sounds good and I don't mind switching my vote, but I'm not sure where. Allando or Caedorus seems like the obvious choice, but aside from Caedorus' maybe-hint there's not a lot to go on. I guess I could see a wolfy Caedorus seeing a towny AV vaugly hint something and figure it would be smart to do the same thing, but I don't know. (So yes, I'm still the hedgiest one in all the land).

- - - Updated - - -

What the hell, it's better than a placeholder/revenge vote. Caedorus.

Sure, I'm not convinced either, but it's D1 so suspecting someone for voting someone else for less than ironclad reasons seems strange (and I kinda want to suspect you over it, but that would be wildly hypocritical, wouldn't it? :smalltongue:)

That said, I did kinda like Caedorus reaction to the votes, but I haven't decided whether that means I think he's less wolfy or just a smart wolf.

Yeah, I know the feeling well (though I'm going back and forth on whether or not you being one the wagons is bad. I was kind of hoping you'd have some really suspicious reaction to people voting you, but you went the other way with it). I feel okay with my vote, but that's mostly just because none of the options seem better.

Unless I missed a post with a vote, he stayed on the Caedorus wagon once there, then basically hedged that he wasn't sure or not but seemed as good as any other.
That... is believable, but looks bad in light of the death flip.
I guess I don't have anything more on flat_footed than batcathat. Just Batcathat has been talking more, so more room to look hedgey.

Night

"Reasonably confident" is probably overselling it (because there's not a lot to go on and also I'm me), but the people I'm the least paranoid about is probably AV and to a lesser degree you.

AV mostly for the sort-of-claim. Unlike Caedorus' very vague comment (though if it was the poem, I admit it was pretty clever), AV's been very specific about where the clues are, even if we don't know what they mean, which seems like it would be unnecessarily limiting for a wolf (especially since there was no more than the usual suspicions against AV at the time). Of course, it's AV so it's certainly not impossible for it to be part of some long wolf con. (I also have a probably out there theory on what AV might have been trying to accomplish, which might suggest someone's wolfy if true).

My read on you is mostly gut. I was initially quite suspicious of you (mostly due to a combination of arguments made by others and something feeling kinda off) but your reaction to being wagon'd and later posts in general felt very towny. There was... franticness(?) that felt genuine. I also think you probably wouldn't have defended Caedorus as much if you were a wolf (then again, it wasn't enough, so maybe it was just the exactly right amount from a wolf).

On the wolf side of things my reads are even less confident. My gut is vary of Cao, but I think I'm at least partially doing what I said I wouldn't and suspect him for the same reason he supposedly suspected me.

If flat's a wolf, I suspect Allando is as well. I don't think a wolf would make that vote (knowing they'd look bad after the lynch) if it wasn't to save a buddy.

My biggest issue with this is just that he's posting it at night.
I guess we did believe there'd be a NK -- or at least if he's town, he believed that based on how i read his early D2 posts -- so I can see wanting to answer in case you fear being NKed. Or to make the wolves think you'll have heat, so they don't NK you.
Anyway, hard to analysis since it's Night, but feels bad to be overall since it's during Night.

Day 2

Skipping posts about NK and the do-ISO post.

Not sure whether Allando and flat turning on each other makes me trust them more or less. I could see two wolves sensing which way the wind was blowing and deciding to bus each other, hoping the survivor would look towny.

NAI.
Makes me pretty sure the wolf team isn't Allando, flat, and Batcathat, since I think (if flat and Allando are wolves) the wolves wouldn't want folk to consider suspecting both of them.

Let's go with Allando for now to have more than one wagon (though when we get close to EoD it might be a good idea to make sure someone is in a solid lead, since vote manipulation is likely).

Maybe it'll be like whatever game it was when you were a wolf and blade was (at least publicly) townreading you to such an unreasonable degree that my main reason for townreading blade was that no wolf would be that blatantly supporting of a buddy. :smalltongue:

Cred to Batcathat if Allando flips.
But, just as we could suspect flat and Allando of turning on each others, it's possible the wolves are bussing Allando this Day to gain towncred.

Not sure what to think about the AV/blade thing. I'm not really paranoid about either of them at the moment (which might be worrying in itself, since they are probably the two people I'm usually the most paranoid about.)

We should also keep in mind that there are potential vote powers among town. I feel like something like Kari is a bit like a vig, in that it's great for town if they're accurate but can cause problems if they aren't.

It might also be potentially balanced by town possibly having a cult-like mechanic with the lovers, which on one hand could lead to several townies dying at once but could also basically win the game if they turn a wolf.

Mostly mech. Seems sincere. NAI.

As I suggested earlier, I think one possibility is flat and Allando both being wolves and having decided that one of them might have to be sacrificed for the other to look better, which would explain the lack of push back (along with it still being quite far from EoD).

Restating earlier position.

Heh. :smallamused: For what it's worth, I think flat would be a better lynch than Allando (since if flat's a wolf, that makes me even more suspicious of Allando, but I'm not sure the opposite is true).

No, but maybe I phrased something weirdly? Anyhow, my reasoning (and feel free to check it for holes) is that if flat’s a wolf, voting Caedorus when he did is a strange move (since he might get heat after Caed flips) unless it’s to save a wolf buddy. So if Allando flips wolf, flat might still just be a townie who made the wrong choice, but if flat flips wolf, Allando seems like a likely buddy.

Yeah, I'm not really sure of your reasoning either, so probably some mismatched logic. My thought is that there are basically four outcomes:

Allando flips town: Doesn't really say much about flat in either direction. (Maybe some slight town points since a wolf might have voted outside of the wagons if they were t/t?)
Allando flips wolf: Might make flat look a little more wolfy, but he could still easily be a townie who made a poor choice.
flat flips town: Doesn't really tell us much about Allando.
flat flips wolf: Allando looks very wolfy, since it's the best explanation for flat's vote.

But as long as we agree that both of them look suspicious, I suppose we can argue over the details later.

I would say Cao, Illven and Ti. But it's basically all gut. If I have the time and energy, I should probably reread the thread assuming flat and Allando are town (and knowing Caedorus is) and see if I can think of anything.

Posts clarifying his stance.
I think I follow his logic. I'll add that if Allando flips wolf and flat flips town, Batcathat looks suspicious.
Wolf!BCH is considering wolves bussing each other, perhaps because he decided to bus Allando since Allando had so much heat.
If doing that, why not set up flat as the lynch target after Allando? That buys the wolves time.

---

So, yeah, opinion unchanged on Batcathat. Looks a little suspicious, but got bigger fish to fry first.

Book Wombat

2023-04-28, 12:27 PM

General N1 Chatter: I generally frown on nightchat unless it's important legacy intel or to spread misinfo.
Book Wombat's post seems odd, but I think some towncred. A wolf wouldn't want to draw Trey's attention to this facet of the power, while a townie might want to make it clear.

Oh, didn't even think about Trey. I was just annoyed at Caedorus saying his power is not useful for Town.

Will look through thread again, see if anything is oddish.

Snowblaze

2023-04-28, 12:30 PM

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-28, 12:37 PM

An indefinite amount of time has elapsed. Glad to see stuff is still happening without me!

Jeen gets significant town points for their analysis imo. Though can you spoiler ISOs in future please?

I will be annoyed if I was right on Kraken D1 and then backed off it. But also he said something that made me think a theory I had was wrong, so I'm just going to say this now: Kraken, why are you not pushing or voting for me?

Illven's response to my question is decent-ish though maybe part of the reason I don't want to push there is because I'd feel terrible about getting her killed regardless of her alignment atp. Should go reread town!Illven games.

Still need Ti and Persolus to do stuff.

Maybe wolves are actually in Allando/flat but that just feels too easy and consensus-y and why isn't there any kind of resistance to it?

Two reasons:

1) I tend not to like voting off players that are either too active or too inactive. One reduces analysis and the other provides little information.
2) While I am still wolfreading you - this question does not help your case, incidentally - I am not confident enough in that to push hard to vote you off, especially since there seems to be little appetite otherwise for voting you. If you were a frontrunner for a wagon, I would (and will) vote for you in the absence of anything more damning from someone else.

I'm still iffy on Jeen. I want more from Cao too as well as Ti and Persolus, yes.

JeenLeen

2023-04-28, 12:38 PM

Oh, didn't even think about Trey. I was just annoyed at Caedorus saying his power is not useful for Town.

Will look through thread again, see if anything is oddish.

Your posts WIFOM me so much.

Towncred to BW for eliminating the only reason I was giving him towncred?
Since of course a wolf wouldn't do that... unless they would do it since it looks so unwolfy and thus towny.
Feels hypocritical not to bounce you down to neutral read from town read, but I guess still townlean overall.

Though can you spoiler ISOs in future please?

Sure.
I did feel bad that the forum combined two of my very long posts into one super-long post. I didn't think nobody would post during the time it took to write up the second one.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm going to try a vote total to get a better sense of participation and votes.
I feel like I must've missed something, since a lot of non-voters and no vote changes despite a lot of discussion. But here goes. Just take it with a grain of salt if I missed something.

Vote totals:
Allando: Snowblaze, Batcathat, Illven
flat_footed: JeenLeen, Allando,
Persolus: LetsGetKraken,
LetsGetKraken: bladescape

Posted but no vote: AV, Cao, BW, flat_footed (really? No self-defense vote even, though he did explain why he didn't vote Allando)
Do we know if, in the event of tie, it's RNG or first person to reach it?

Snowblaze

2023-04-28, 01:34 PM

Brief skim through the OP didn't say, so @Xihirli what are the tie rules?

Mmm, that's... kind of fair actually, Kraken, but also.

...gah. I don't know.

I can think of plenty of reasons to wolfread Kraken but do I actually believe in them? It's just... my gut is stubbornly silent on him now.

So, yeah. Town!Kraken, according to my late D1/early N1 reads, is just confbiased and dealing with a natural tendency to scumread my playstyle.

Two problems I have: a) late D1, after I start actually doing stuff, Kraken comes back and just says "yeah, I like Snow best of the current wagons" without even remarking on the stuff I did.

And if you're town and your top suspect produces a large amount of content, including pivoting away from their suspicion of you to some extent, what do you do? Do you think "actually, maybe she's town now she's actually putting work in"? Do you dissect why you think her content is wolfy?

Or do you just pretend it doesn't exist and go on voting her?

(I kind of hate this read because it's a "this progression makes no sense coming from town" read and those reads are bad reads and usually when I make them the person involved ends up actually being town.)

And b) if you're town and confbiased to the extent that you're just seeing everything your suspect does as wolfy N1, do you then come into D2 not even mentioning her or pushing her in any way?

I mean yes, he did have a decent explanation for the latter but also I'd expect just "I still think Snowblaze is a wolf, but I'm not going to push that because..."

I think my problem with this case is that my reasons here are reasons I think are in general not ones you should be wolfreading someone for. But maybe in this specific instance they're valid? I don't know.

General request for people not to vote Kraken because they like/agree with that case when even I don't. If you think he's a wolf, vote him, but don't base it on this.

Going to reread and do RL stuff and refresh thread occasionally and turn this over in my mind for a few hours. Maybe tomorrow I will have reached some level of clarity.

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-28, 01:43 PM

Lady Serpentine

2023-04-28, 04:28 PM

Argh.

My brain is mush at the moment. I'm going to try and read back through, but. Do we know the tie rules?

Snowblaze

2023-04-28, 04:37 PM

See this is just so blatantly wolfy that it loops back around to being towncred, honestly? "Oh no look at this analysis BUT DON'T LISTEN TO IT, BUT ALSO STILL VOTE KRAKEN IF YOU WANT". This does feel like Snow spiralling more than a wolf WIFOMing (though you never know, we picked Snow to represent us for a reason).
I am amused. I guess "Snow is TWTBAW" is progress from "Snow is a wolf", right?

(Too Wolfy To Be A Wolf.)

Argh.

My brain is mush at the moment. I'm going to try and read back through, but. Do we know the tie rules?

I don't believe so, I just asked Xihirli. Looking forward to your thoughts when you've caught up!

Also I am falling asleep at my keyboard so going to disappear until tomorrow, when I will be back with hopefully more coherent and confident thoughts.

Allando

2023-04-28, 06:06 PM

We're going to be traveling a lot tomorrow so I'll not be online a lot. I'll try to be around for EOD but chances are very slim. For now, my vote sticks with Flat, other wolfish reads definitely Illven and Persolus a little too.

Xihirli

2023-04-28, 06:20 PM

Brief skim through the OP didn't say, so @Xihirli what are the tie rules?

In the game of Yu-Gi-Oh!, ties in battle are determined based on the battle positions of the monsters in the battle. If both are in attack mode, both are destroyed. If one is in defense mode, neither are.

Illven

2023-04-28, 06:29 PM

Quick question since I'm at work. What mode do we start in? Face down defense till we openly claim? :smalltongue:

JeenLeen

2023-04-28, 08:59 PM

In the game of Yu-Gi-Oh!, ties in battle are determined based on the battle positions of the monsters in the battle. If both are in attack mode, both are destroyed. If one is in defense mode, neither are.

Quick question since I'm at work. What mode do we start in? Face down defense till we openly claim? :smalltongue:

There is a chance Xi is not answering our question at all and merely stating the rules of the card game.
But I reckon it's a good clue to how ties work.

We destroy someone in battle via voting them. So... maybe we're in attack position if we vote? If we don't, we're in defense position?

If vote manipulation powers weren't in play, we could test this by having a tie between Allando and flat_footed. Allando voted; flat_footed didn't. But Nash means that even if the Town agreed not to fiddle with the results, we can't test it.

And even if could, that doesn't mean we should. If neither die, we'd basically be in the same situation D3 as we were today. (Yes, some info-gathering could occur that might shed significant light, and delaying lets more join the Lovers, but it also gives Nash another night to votesteal. And, besides, we can't force a tie to test it anyway.)

Snowblaze

2023-04-29, 01:19 AM

So that's what the point of the Load is.

Okay. We should probably try and avoid having ties, then. Though given the existence of vote manipulators who won't be inclined to cooperate with that it will be difficult.

In other news, you will be unsurprised to learn I have not reached more coherent or confident thoughts, other than a mild townlean on Persolus for possibly-bad reasons (also my gut wants to do that with Ti as well but. Brain cannot justify it.)

Allando/flat_footed/maybe Kraken/maybe Illven/maybe Ti...

Let me juggle those names around for a while and see if I can find pairings or unpairings among them.

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Anyone who's late for registration will be disqualified. Mokuba, make sure Bladescape's late.
Random vote, NAI.

Ok, I'll risk tilting the scales, gut feeling that this post is off. Pointing to something that doesn't make sense and then editing in your realization of why it happened, or a second post correcting yourself, is something I would have expected to see. Caedorus still posting this feels like he is trying to fake figuring things out.
Yeah, this. I thought even before the flip it looked kind of... reachy, I guess? Forcing yourself to have a wolfread you don't really believe in.

I do kind of think the thing BCH didn't actually say was right, though: does a wolf do this when there's TvT wagons, knowing that they'll look suspicious for making the "wrong choice"?

There's not much further to look into for my vote than what I already said, it was the only thing that stood out to me between Allando and Caedorus. I made a choice to break the tie, turns out it was the wrong one assuming we weren't TvT. I don't have much time now, working graveyard yesterday and today. I'll be back in ~12 hours.

Voting Allando here crossed my mind to try and prove I'm not protecting them. Best case scenario they flip wolf and then I look wolfy, worst case they are town and we lose another member. In any case, no vote from me yet.
Eh. I can kind of see this I guess? Gut says "yes, I was wrong, that's all there is to it" is a towny response to pressure, a wolf would be more likely to overjustify.

I disagree fundamentally with voting people to prove you're not protecting them but I... don't think the opinion is actually AI. Not actually doing it however is... eh, if this is a bluff from partnered-with-Allando!flat then it's easily called. But then again by Allando's play today if they are partners they're already bussing.

And... I've been trying really hard not to make this read but.
It has been significantly over twelve hours, and flat in particular has been known to strategically lurk as a wolf.

But yeah, this is something I hate reading into, he could just be genuinely busy.

Huh. I... do not wolfread flat as much as I was expecting going into this. I can't justify removing him from POE based on this but wouldn't be my first choice to vote today.

Also @flat_footed if you're reading: hi! Can you please vote for someone, and also give thoughts on whoever you have thoughts on? Thanks!

Also also questions I want to explore myself and think other people should explore too: let's consider three worlds.

1. Allando and flat are both wolves.
2. Allando is a wolf, flat is town.
3. Allando is town, flat is a wolf.

a) which of these worlds do you think is most likely? Are there any you'd rule out? Why/why not?
b) what do you think wolves' strategy is in each world? Who outside Allando/flat looks to be following that strategy iyo?
c) how probable do you think it is that we're not living in any of those worlds, and they're both town?
(Also d) if they are both town who are the wolves, but I already asked that.)

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Maybe wolves just have low gamestate influence rn and that's why the lack of resistance to current wagons is making me paranoid.

Maybe there are deepwolves and I'm just telling myself that because I don't want to actually consider worlds where I'm misclearing someone.

Maybe I should be doing stuff that isn't this game.

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Also this might be a bad read but. Given town!Kraken, and in particular also wolf!Allando, why didn't wolves vote Kraken D1?

Because it's an easy thing to say "oh, Snowblaze has a decent case, let's vote Kraken" and then when Kraken flips town "Snowblaze is supposed to be good at this game, why was she wrong if she's town? Let's kill her."

Instead we get Ti as the only non-me Kraken vote, for reasons not associated with my case and after I'd partially walked it back.

Did wolves see town!Kraken and presumably town!Jeen pushing back against the case and decide it was too risky to get involved? Were they just not around to get involved? Did they pick up on the Caedorus softs and decide he was a better mislynch?

All possible. But still. There's the obvious explanation, which could be more likely.

flat_footed

2023-04-29, 02:33 AM

So that's what the point of the Load is.

Okay. We should probably try and avoid having ties, then. Though given the existence of vote manipulators who won't be inclined to cooperate with that it will be difficult.

In other news, you will be unsurprised to learn I have not reached more coherent or confident thoughts, other than a mild townlean on Persolus for possibly-bad reasons (also my gut wants to do that with Ti as well but. Brain cannot justify it.)

Allando/flat_footed/maybe Kraken/maybe Illven/maybe Ti...

Let me juggle those names around for a while and see if I can find pairings or unpairings among them.

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Random vote, NAI.

Yeah, this. I thought even before the flip it looked kind of... reachy, I guess? Forcing yourself to have a wolfread you don't really believe in.

I do kind of think the thing BCH didn't actually say was right, though: does a wolf do this when there's TvT wagons, knowing that they'll look suspicious for making the "wrong choice"?

Eh. I can kind of see this I guess? Gut says "yes, I was wrong, that's all there is to it" is a towny response to pressure, a wolf would be more likely to overjustify.

I disagree fundamentally with voting people to prove you're not protecting them but I... don't think the opinion is actually AI. Not actually doing it however is... eh, if this is a bluff from partnered-with-Allando!flat then it's easily called. But then again by Allando's play today if they are partners they're already bussing.

And... I've been trying really hard not to make this read but.
It has been significantly over twelve hours, and flat in particular has been known to strategically lurk as a wolf.

But yeah, this is something I hate reading into, he could just be genuinely busy.

Huh. I... do not wolfread flat as much as I was expecting going into this. I can't justify removing him from POE based on this but wouldn't be my first choice to vote today.

Also @flat_footed if you're reading: hi! Can you please vote for someone, and also give thoughts on whoever you have thoughts on? Thanks!

Also also questions I want to explore myself and think other people should explore too: let's consider three worlds.

1. Allando and flat are both wolves.
2. Allando is a wolf, flat is town.
3. Allando is town, flat is a wolf.

a) which of these worlds do you think is most likely? Are there any you'd rule out? Why/why not?
b) what do you think wolves' strategy is in each world? Who outside Allando/flat looks to be following that strategy iyo?
c) how probable do you think it is that we're not living in any of those worlds, and they're both town?
(Also d) if they are both town who are the wolves, but I already asked that.)

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Maybe wolves just have low gamestate influence rn and that's why the lack of resistance to current wagons is making me paranoid.

Maybe there are deepwolves and I'm just telling myself that because I don't want to actually consider worlds where I'm misclearing someone.

Maybe I should be doing stuff that isn't this game.

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Also this might be a bad read but. Given town!Kraken, and in particular also wolf!Allando, why didn't wolves vote Kraken D1?

Because it's an easy thing to say "oh, Snowblaze has a decent case, let's vote Kraken" and then when Kraken flips town "Snowblaze is supposed to be good at this game, why was she wrong if she's town? Let's kill her."

Instead we get Ti as the only non-me Kraken vote, for reasons not associated with my case and after I'd partially walked it back.

Did wolves see town!Kraken and presumably town!Jeen pushing back against the case and decide it was too risky to get involved? Were they just not around to get involved? Did they pick up on the Caedorus softs and decide he was a better mislynch?

All possible. But still. There's the obvious explanation, which could be more likely.

I didn't have the time I thought I would to post last night like I promised. Crashed hard when I got home and had a list to complete when I woke up. I've tried to catch parts of the thread during the day but didn't have time to sit down and force a post, especially on mobile. I should be asleep now, but skimmed the final bits now that I'm at my pc.

I don't have energy for WIFOM atm, so here's a Kraken for now.

Snowblaze

2023-04-29, 02:44 AM

I didn't have the time I thought I would to post last night like I promised. Crashed hard when I got home and had a list to complete when I woke up. I've tried to catch parts of the thread during the day but didn't have time to sit down and force a post, especially on mobile. I should be asleep now, but skimmed the final bits now that I'm at my pc.

I don't have energy for WIFOM atm, so here's a Kraken for now.

Fair, I guess.

Am I right in thinking the Kraken vote is because of stuff from my quote?

Thoughts on Allando?

(Also I did not realise just how long a wall I produced until you quoted it. Apologies to my fellow phoneposters for inflicting that on you.)

...gah, part of me wants to just call flat town and actually vote Kraken but also I don't know if that's just the part of me that's contrarian and wants to change gamestate for its own sake because it's felt too static.

Batcathat

2023-04-29, 02:59 AM

Assuming a wolfy Allando and a towny Kraken, I'm not sure the wolves would want to vote the later D1. They already had a good mislynch set up and splitting the vote might make it more likely for Allando to get lynched. Still, worth keeping in mind, I suppose.

Snow suggesting she's suspecting Kraken again and flat immediately voting for him doesn't exactly make me suspect flat less.

The rest of Snow's questions will have to wait until I've had more time to think, but they do seem worth looking into.

Snowblaze

2023-04-29, 03:04 AM

Xihirli, who is obviously the deity.
Random vote. For the narrator. Don't think anyone really picked up on it at the time. Trying to read into this is too WIFOMy imo, so I will call it NAI.

Oh, my brother,
Must we bother
To wait 'till end of day
To shoo Caedorus away?
I can rhyme as well, you know.
OMGUSing his brother, probably NAI?

AV's role is not going to be outed until they want it to be. Also, distressing that Caedorus, the one usually so against massclaiming, is already dropping hints. Maybe them saying they have dropped a hint is their clue and they're the two lovers? Makes no sense to claim that since if one of them dies the other dies as well, so there's no oppertunity for "I'm an innocent townie and my mason just died" stuff.
So, AV, Caedorus, are you trying a very bold wolf play but had you accidentally missed that in the lovers' role description? Or what's going on?
Ah, yes. This thing again. I still haven't quite worked out what to make of it; if you forced me I'd go with mildly wolfy but I'm not sure.

My half-joking vote on Caedorus seems to have become a wagon. Are we all fine eliminating him?
I need to go check for people's reasoning behind other votes.
In a vacuum this is towny. In context of "Allando seems to have a reasonably confident wolfread on Caedorus and also he never actually did look for other reasoning iirc" it's wolfy.

"I wasn't advertising roleclaiming, I was only almost doing so myself"

Has Serpentine made a post yet? Don't know.
Feels vaguely shady/uncharitable interpretation I think?

I was mainly seeing how they'd react. I had (and have still) very few wolfleans. Caedorus is my best one, currently, because their behaviour seems contradictory to me.
Mmm. Did I ask what he made of the reactions at the time? If I did he didn't answer, which means this could be a cop-out to some extent. Also I don't know why but "their behaviour seems contradictory to me" is giving me gut pings.

Caedorus was trying so hard to be sus enough to not get nk'ed he got eliminated. Rip.
That can happen, yes (see: Xumtiil, Afterlife 3, though that was more because I didn't think to suspect the narrator).

But anyway I... eh. I don't think Caedorus was deliberately trying to be suspicious, and I can see worlds where this is trying to justify the vote with "it was totally his fault, not mine!"

Hm, OK. I definitely suspect all the people voting Caedorus a little - yes, I know.
I'd have to go see who looks the most pockety, though.
Flat footed... you jumped on the wagon last second to avoid a tie. However, since Caedorus reached 3 votes first, there was no need, so a cunning wolf wouldn't have done that, unless again they have knowledge of vote manipulations, and why would the wolves do that, seeing as I was the other wagon? Did they somehow know Caedorus was a scry, and thus a waay better elimination than me? Or is this all some cunning wolf plan to sus me?
Aaaaaah my brains.
Other reads: Snowblaze, null. You started off slightly wolfy, but after that you've been solvy, but then again, as Caedorus said, that is more NAI for you than anything else.
The problem I'm having is I have too many people on the maybe wolf list and too few anywhere else. I agree with you that we need more info, I'm hoping the nk will clarify some.
I kind of like the analysis of the flat vote; feels genuinely confused/paranoid. Not... entirely sure why I'm the only one that gets called out for a null read.

Also if he has more suspects why didn't he talk about that at some point.

Also also "we need more info" is sometimes something wolves hide behind.

Caedorus was being suspicious by not acting like I'm used to. All previous games he was extremely against claiming in general. I still have no clue why he decided to hint being the seer - it was probably why he got eliminated.
For now, Flat_Footed. You're the most suspicious vote change IMO.

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Do they have one, do they have to use it? My first thought was the latter.
Mmm, okay, given the context and the explanation this is Fine(TM). I'm not sure I like just voting flat instead of properly digging into the Caedorus votes but... shrug

I originally didn't get it, then I realised what could've happened. I'm like 90% sure flat is a wolf who got the hint and really wanted him gone.
All this doesn't hold up if Marin is in play though, because then they could've just targeted Caedorus. Then again, easier to get rid of him than to have to block him every day.

There are a lot of assumptions here... hm. I hope this isn't going to happen.

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I never changed my vote from Caedorus because he was IMO the most sus. Also I wasn't rlly around for EOD.
And yes, we are similar, in that we both vote each other d1. But saying we're going to always act similarly depending on our alignment is wrong: our roles are different, for one, and we are still separate people.
I'm not sure I believe the confidence in wolf!flat here.

Though yes, we should all try to be more aware that the brothers are separate people.

Pending the second part, which will come later because I've already invested too much of my morning in this game, I wouldn't be surprised if he flipped wolf.

Also I realised that an Allando/flat wolfteam makes a lot more sense if Allando is exactly Nash, since Nash dying D1 before he has a chance to attach material is basically game-losing for wolves.

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Assuming a wolfy Allando and a towny Kraken, I'm not sure the wolves would want to vote the later D1. They already had a good mislynch set up and splitting the vote might make it more likely for Allando to get lynched. Still, worth keeping in mind, I suppose.

Snow suggesting she's suspecting Kraken again and flat immediately voting for him doesn't exactly make me suspect flat less.

The rest of Snow's questions will have to wait until I've had more time to think, but they do seem worth looking into.

Yeah, point, especially in light of the idea I just had about Allando. Should recheck to see exactly how wagons developed.

The flat thing could be a point but there is no world in which I vote him over Allando given that idea.

Batcathat

2023-04-29, 03:15 AM

Okay, so I couldn't actually wait that long. Might add to my answers after properly waking up. :smalltongue:

1. Allando and flat are both wolves.
2. Allando is a wolf, flat is town.
3. Allando is town, flat is a wolf.

a) which of these worlds do you think is most likely? Are there any you'd rule out? Why/why not?
b) what do you think wolves' strategy is in each world? Who outside Allando/flat looks to be following that strategy iyo?
c) how probable do you think it is that we're not living in any of those worlds, and they're both town?
(Also d) if they are both town who are the wolves, but I already asked that.)

a) I wouldn't rule out any of the worlds, but I feel like number 3 is probably the least likely (since it has flat setting himself up to take the heat for Caedorus' lynch for basically no reason). I want to say number 1 is the most likely, but that might just be tunneling at this point. I think the two of them accusing each other at the start of D2 kind of supports them being w/w, as a townie might've been looking for more alternate explanations (but that might just be me assuming everyone's as hedgy as I am).
b) I've already suggested their strategy in 1, bus each other and hope the survivor looks good from it. In the other worlds, I'm not so sure beyond the obvious "get the other person lynched". If flat's a wolf, I suppose his vote for Kraken could be either avoiding contributing to a mislynch (if Allando's town) or seeing a chance to not having to bus a wolf buddy. Not sure who else could be involved at this point.
c) It's possible, but I wouldn't think it's that likely (though again, I might just be tunneling).

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-29, 07:28 AM

So that's what the point of the Load is.

Okay. We should probably try and avoid having ties, then. Though given the existence of vote manipulators who won't be inclined to cooperate with that it will be difficult.

In other news, you will be unsurprised to learn I have not reached more coherent or confident thoughts, other than a mild townlean on Persolus for possibly-bad reasons (also my gut wants to do that with Ti as well but. Brain cannot justify it.)

Allando/flat_footed/maybe Kraken/maybe Illven/maybe Ti...

Let me juggle those names around for a while and see if I can find pairings or unpairings among them.

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Random vote, NAI.

Yeah, this. I thought even before the flip it looked kind of... reachy, I guess? Forcing yourself to have a wolfread you don't really believe in.

I do kind of think the thing BCH didn't actually say was right, though: does a wolf do this when there's TvT wagons, knowing that they'll look suspicious for making the "wrong choice"?

Eh. I can kind of see this I guess? Gut says "yes, I was wrong, that's all there is to it" is a towny response to pressure, a wolf would be more likely to overjustify.

I disagree fundamentally with voting people to prove you're not protecting them but I... don't think the opinion is actually AI. Not actually doing it however is... eh, if this is a bluff from partnered-with-Allando!flat then it's easily called. But then again by Allando's play today if they are partners they're already bussing.

And... I've been trying really hard not to make this read but.
It has been significantly over twelve hours, and flat in particular has been known to strategically lurk as a wolf.

But yeah, this is something I hate reading into, he could just be genuinely busy.

Huh. I... do not wolfread flat as much as I was expecting going into this. I can't justify removing him from POE based on this but wouldn't be my first choice to vote today.

Also @flat_footed if you're reading: hi! Can you please vote for someone, and also give thoughts on whoever you have thoughts on? Thanks!

Also also questions I want to explore myself and think other people should explore too: let's consider three worlds.

1. Allando and flat are both wolves.
2. Allando is a wolf, flat is town.
3. Allando is town, flat is a wolf.

a) which of these worlds do you think is most likely? Are there any you'd rule out? Why/why not?
b) what do you think wolves' strategy is in each world? Who outside Allando/flat looks to be following that strategy iyo?
c) how probable do you think it is that we're not living in any of those worlds, and they're both town?
(Also d) if they are both town who are the wolves, but I already asked that.)

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Maybe wolves just have low gamestate influence rn and that's why the lack of resistance to current wagons is making me paranoid.

Maybe there are deepwolves and I'm just telling myself that because I don't want to actually consider worlds where I'm misclearing someone.

Maybe I should be doing stuff that isn't this game.

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Also this might be a bad read but. Given town!Kraken, and in particular also wolf!Allando, why didn't wolves vote Kraken D1?

Because it's an easy thing to say "oh, Snowblaze has a decent case, let's vote Kraken" and then when Kraken flips town "Snowblaze is supposed to be good at this game, why was she wrong if she's town? Let's kill her."

Instead we get Ti as the only non-me Kraken vote, for reasons not associated with my case and after I'd partially walked it back.

Did wolves see town!Kraken and presumably town!Jeen pushing back against the case and decide it was too risky to get involved? Were they just not around to get involved? Did they pick up on the Caedorus softs and decide he was a better mislynch?

All possible. But still. There's the obvious explanation, which could be more likely.

I mean, there are three likely options, in my opinion:

1) You're a wolf, and it would look extraordinarily bad for people to jump to your defense for me to flip town. You'd be paired pretty hard with the other wolves from the get go.
2) Wolves didn't want to look too eager to jump from Wagon to Wagon and waited to see where the dust would settle to avoid displaying wolf-like behaviour.
3) Allando is town and they felt safe enough they didn't need to push a third townie.

Snowblaze

2023-04-29, 08:34 AM

I mean, there are three likely options, in my opinion:

1) You're a wolf, and it would look extraordinarily bad for people to jump to your defense for me to flip town. You'd be paired pretty hard with the other wolves from the get go.
2) Wolves didn't want to look too eager to jump from Wagon to Wagon and waited to see where the dust would settle to avoid displaying wolf-like behaviour.
3) Allando is town and they felt safe enough they didn't need to push a third townie.
Mmm, those are actually plausible (well, 2 and 3 are, anyway.)

Can you answer my world-building questions (the numbered list in the wall you quoted) please?

Around-ish but won't be digging into serious analysis/finishing my ISO or starting any more for a few hours.

Batcathat

2023-04-29, 10:50 AM

Even if there's some time left to EoD (especially with the delay Xi advertised) it might be a good idea to try to get our votes a bit more focused (and for the people who haven't voted to do so) to minimize the risk of the wolves controlling the outcome.

As I've already explained, flat_footed would be my first choice, but if more people prefer Allando I'd be fine going back there (as an added bonus to that lynch, I've been getting a little worried about Snow again and Allando flipping wolf should calm me in that regard). I might be open for some third choice, if someone has a good case for it.

Snowblaze

2023-04-29, 11:50 AM

Something just clicked in my brain. This might be a stupid read, but. It fits. I think.

I think Batcathat/Allando are w/w. Because Illven isn't the Caedorus vote we're all forgetting and not scrutinizing enough, BCH is. And I townread them for it because I thought taking actual stances was towny for them but if they're doing it to protect a wolf partner it makes so much more sense...

And then their treatment of Allando/flat today is just. I thought it was weird earlier but it didn't click that it was wolfy-weird and in particular wolf-distancing-from-their-partner-Allando weird. It's just... "I think Allando/flat are w/w but also I want to kill flat first" and having that even while voting for Allando so they always had that route off the wagon.

(Their last post also kind of read like TMI Allando flips wolf at first glance, it isn't necessarily but that's where the idea first game from ftr.)

I don't know how confident in this I am, I might wonder what on earth this idiot was thinking in a few hours, but I definitely think it's a theory worth consideration.

Sanity check appreciated, please!

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Oh, lol, just actually read Jeen's BCH ISO and "if flat flips town and Allando flips wolf, BCH looks more suspicious". I was beaten to it.

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-29, 12:17 PM

Mmm, those are actually plausible (well, 2 and 3 are, anyway.)

Can you answer my world-building questions (the numbered list in the wall you quoted) please?

Around-ish but won't be digging into serious analysis/finishing my ISO or starting any more for a few hours.

[Quote]
1. Allando and flat are both wolves.
2. Allando is a wolf, flat is town.
3. Allando is town, flat is a wolf.

a) which of these worlds do you think is most likely? Are there any you'd rule out? Why/why not?
b) what do you think wolves' strategy is in each world? Who outside Allando/flat looks to be following that strategy iyo?
c) how probable do you think it is that we're not living in any of those worlds, and they're both town?
(Also d) if they are both town who are the wolves, but I already asked that.)
[/unquote]

I think Scenario #2 is mostly likely. Scenario #1 is a little too blatant a play, I think, unless Allando is Nash.

I don't see scenario #3 is likely - how does a wolf benefit from being the last one on a wagon to seal town's fate? For that reason, I think Allando is probably the best to test here, but see my point below.

For C... that's sort of what I'm suspecting? I'm just not sure who we really test otherwise. I'm getting good gut pings from BCH (I'll go back and look at his posts) so... Cao? Illven? bladescape? I mean in an ideal world it would be you but I doubt we collectively have the stomach for that.

Also did AV give a reason for being totally inconspicuous today? Want to make sure that's not a wolf lurking under the radar.

Batcathat

2023-04-29, 12:24 PM

And then their treatment of Allando/flat today is just. I thought it was weird earlier but it didn't click that it was wolfy-weird and in particular wolf-distancing-from-their-partner-Allando weird. It's just... "I think Allando/flat are w/w but also I want to kill flat first" and having that even while voting for Allando so they always had that route off the wagon.

I still don't get what's so weird about my stance. I find both of them suspicious, but I think flat flipping might tell us more about Allando than vice versa (since if Allando flips wolf, flat is either another wolf trying to save his buddy or a townie who picked poorly, but if flat flips wolf, Allando is almost certainly one as well or flat set himself up to take the heat for a mislynch for no discernible reason).

Snowblaze

2023-04-29, 12:50 PM

I still don't get what's so weird about my stance. I find both of them suspicious, but I think flat flipping might tell us more about Allando than vice versa (since if Allando flips wolf, flat is either another wolf trying to save his buddy or a townie who picked poorly, but if flat flips wolf, Allando is almost certainly one as well or flat set himself up to take the heat for a mislynch for no discernible reason).

"If flat is a wolf, then Allando is a wolf"

"If Allando is town, then flat is town"

Those statements are logically equivalent. (Actually technically they're not in a game which might have a neutral. But ignore that.)

If Allando flips town then we know we probably shouldn't kill flat, and if Allando flips wolf then we don't know about flat but we killed a wolf, which is good.

If flat flips wolf, great, we killed a wolf and Allando is probably also one. If flat flips town... then what? That tells us nothing about Allando's alignment, and is something we could have prevented by killing Allando first.

Does that make any more sense? I don't really see how else to explain it, so sorry if it doesn't.

flat_footed

2023-04-29, 12:52 PM

Batcathat

2023-04-29, 01:08 PM

Does that make any more sense? I don't really see how else to explain it, so sorry if it doesn't.

Hmm. Yeah, I think I see what you're saying and you might have a point. I still think that flat flipping wolf is the scenario that ends with the most reliable information going forward, but I suppose Allando flipping does leave us with something regardless of his alignment.

Saving Allando doesn't make sense as wolf! Flat. Better to let one possibly survive the tie rules than risk suspicion on us both

I can be a team player, but I'm not really the "dove in front of my buddy" kind of teammate if I can keep going under the radar.

Do I have to vote Allando here? No idea what the vote count is but it's got to be close.

Yeah, if my count is correct it is indeed quite close (which worries me regardless of who the wolves are).

Allando: 2 (Illven Snowblaze)
flat_footed: 3 (Allando Batcathat JeenLeen)
Let’sGetKraken: 2 (Bladescape flat_footed)
Persolus: 1 (Let’sGetKraken)

flat_footed

2023-04-29, 01:30 PM

Hmm. Yeah, I think I see what you're saying and you might have a point. I still think that flat flipping wolf is the scenario that ends with the most reliable information going forward, but I suppose Allando flipping does leave us with something regardless of his alignment.

Yeah, if my count is correct it is indeed quite close (which worries me regardless of who the wolves are).

Allando: 2 (Illven Snowblaze)
flat_footed: 3 (Allando Batcathat JeenLeen)
Let’sGetKraken: 2 (Bladescape flat_footed)
Persolus: 1 (Let’sGetKraken)

Flat's not going to flip wolf. Allando.

Batcathat

2023-04-29, 01:33 PM

Flat's not going to flip wolf. Allando.

I don't know about that, talking about yourself in the third person is a clear sign of villainy. :smalltongue:

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-29, 01:39 PM

Alright, I'm sorry Allando. I don't think this is necessarily us hitting a wolf here but this does give us some information and I would rather see this happen than flat or I voted out.

flat_footed

2023-04-29, 01:40 PM

I don't know about that, talking about yourself in the third person is a clear sign of villainy. :smalltongue:

I'd argue the point, but you more than most I'll let that slide. :smallamused:

AvatarVecna

2023-04-29, 02:02 PM

Hoo boy, it's been a while. I guess I'll throw a Vote: Book Wombat out there cause why not. Is there any new meta I should be aware of that changed since I last played?

And are we worried about the Neutral being in the game at all? Is 14 roles too small for a 3P?

It's not a new meta, but OMGUS votes are generally NAGL. :smalltongue:

14 is not too small a game for neutrals. As for worried...eh. It might exist. If it exists, it might do something. But there's nothing concrete to worry about, when basically the entire power is redacted, so may as well not spend our time worrying about it.

On that note, I'm also eyeing the Caedorus "wagon". Which is basically two random votes plus this post from BatCatHat:

I'm not convinced that a Wolf would see someone else give a hint and then decide to draw attention to themselves and claim the same thing. Maybe I just don't know Caedorus and they would do that but it feels like a weird reason to make someone the lead wagon BatCatHat

Townpoints for Cao, scumpoints for BCH.

Appreciate the validation, but I think this is just normal hedginess from BatCatHat. Having played with him before (hell, even Snow referenced it) he is famously hedge turn 1. This does not seem suspicious.

Caedorus is giving me gut pings for stating facts about the game, which is a slightly wolfy thing to do to appear more active. Slight wolflean there, but staying on Snow.

BCH/Kraken w/w? Should consider if one flips scum.

--read list--

Nodding along. Townie points.

Just enough time for a quick update but AV/Jeen have jumped up in my reads to join Kracken/Snow as "trust enough to not worry about until we get a better feel for everyone else".

Blade's claim that Marin is in the game is fine but I'll agree with someone (AV I think?) that it's weird that blade would admit to knowledge that it was a void? Seems to give wolves more info than town.

That kind of 'mistake' echoes with behavior I've seen from blade in previous games where blade turned out scum. It's making me real nervous.

- - - Updated - - -

Alright, I'm sorry Allando. I don't think this is necessarily us hitting a wolf here but this does give us some information and I would rather see this happen than flat or I voted out.

Biting back my instinctive urge to vote you for this post cuz I can actually feel myself justifying it regardless of how Allando flips, and I hate when people do that.

- - - Updated - - -

GTH my three-person team would be JL/Kraken/blade, but I'm hoping we have just two scum cuz cultist is always a huge balance issue, and also that team sounds like a nightmare to deal with tbh

- - - Updated - - -

Welp. Note to self: defend sufficiently confident townleans harder if you don't want to have to keep complaining about their getting lynched D1.

Also I presume the soft was the poem, since Byron is also a poet. I like that.

More thoughts probably tomorrow when I will actually have time for this game.

Probably a silly question but I'm actually having trouble finding anything indicating Byron is a poet? I was trying to see if it would be easy to think the hint is "poetry" and then from there deduce that Cae was softing Byron, and instead I'm just finding like zero references to it? Wikipedia, Yugioh.fandom, and TVTropes don't mention anything about it.

- - - Updated - - -

I must admit you're making me curious about what the claim is (but claiming anything this early seems weird, so no pressure). While I'm not the alpha or any other flavour of wolf (but of course I would say that), falsely accusing me seems a little short-sighted as a wolf play. I also don't think you'd reveal your information this early if you honestly thought I was a wolf, so I'm not sure what that leaves.

You actually claiming something completely different that's too subtle for me to pick up on? Yeah, that seems like the most likely option. :smalltongue:

This feels a little weird. My post is literally the first one in the game, I have no information except what my starting role provides me, and none of the roles really start with information about other people except lovers, wolves, and maybe the neutral. BCH defaults to assuming that whatever I'm hinting at with my post is about them being a wolf in some fashion, which seems like a very odd assumption since that's information I could literally only have if we were both wolves...and if we're both wolves, this is still a weird reaction, just for different reasons. If I were to read way too deep into the post, it feels like a wolf mildly panicking at getting caught seemingly immediately and trying to fish for info without looking like they're fishing. That read feels like a stretch to me, but the alternative is that town!BCH thinks I was a wolf pretending to out BCH as my wolfbuddy for...some reason?

Batcathat

2023-04-29, 02:55 PM

Probably a silly question but I'm actually having trouble finding anything indicating Byron is a poet? I was trying to see if it would be easy to think the hint is "poetry" and then from there deduce that Cae was softing Byron, and instead I'm just finding like zero references to it? Wikipedia, Yugioh.fandom, and TVTropes don't mention anything about it.

Unless I'm mistaken, the idea was that it was a reference to the poet Lord Byron.

Anyhow, it seems unlikely that I'll get enough support on lynching flat (and Snow might have a point), so Allando it is.

Snowblaze

2023-04-29, 03:50 PM

Present, possibly until EOD but I reserve the right to go to sleep if it's a long time.

I did in fact mean the real-world poet Lord Byron (Ada Lovelace's dad, "mad, bad and dangerous to know". I have a habit of remembering random facts.)

All these Allando votes are making me paranoid but also I don't know where I'd go instead. Not flat because of the whole "Allando town implies flat town" thing. Not BCH because my entire reason for suspecting them is based on their being w/w with Allando.

...Kraken? I don't know. My Kraken read has progressed no further than last night, which is to say maybe he's a wolf but also it just doesn't feel right and I can't understand why. Chalking that one up to "lol Snowblaze" regardless of his alignment atp.

- - - Updated - - -

It's quiet. Too quiet.

Still paranoid. Still don't have better ideas.

Anyone around? Do people think Allando is going to flip wolf? Does anyone have reasons not to townread Allando?

Allando

2023-04-29, 04:38 PM

I hope this explains some of the sus things I've been doing.

Kite – the Light: Your father, Doctor Faker, made a pact with the Barians that put yourself and your brother at risk and you’ve been paying for it your whole life. This war is personal for you.
Galaxy-Eyes Photon Dragon:
On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Player. Starting in the next Standby Phase, if you ever vote for that Player, they cannot activate any abilit(ies) on the next Main Phase 2. A maximum of 3 Player(s) can have this effect at once.

I targeted Flat last night, because I'm pretty sure they're a wolf, specifically I'm hoping they're the alfa, since their voting is sus and that's what I expected of the alfa this game. So yes, I am slightly tunneling flat atm. I'm just hoping it's useful.
Also, Snow, kindly stop preflipping me. I have no time to quote your massive wallpost bc eop could be anytime now, but you're almost assuming I'm a wolf and then considering the unlikely scenario I'm town.

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-29, 04:43 PM

Pivoting to... ****, I don't know. Flat_footed. Allando's claim changes things. Could still be a wolf with knowledge of roles in play, but unless we get a counterclaim I am comfortable lynching flat instead.

Snowblaze

2023-04-29, 04:43 PM

flat_footed

2023-04-29, 04:48 PM

I am kite, allando is lying.

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-29, 04:48 PM

Okay.

Will skim through your ISO to figure out if that makes sense.

I don't think I've been preflipping you, sorry if it's come across in that way and even more so if you're town.

Who are the wolves?

Snow, I don"t think we have time for this. Either change your vote or we condemn Allando and hope he is a wolf with knowledge of roles not in play.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh ****! Okay. Back to Allando.

flat_footed

2023-04-29, 04:50 PM

Snow, I don"t think we have time for this. Either change your vote or we condemn Allando and hope he is a wolf with knowledge of roles not in play.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh ****! Okay. Back to Allando.

Yeah, Allando really picked the wrong role to fake. :smalltongue:

Snowblaze

2023-04-29, 04:50 PM

tears up post I was constructing

Okay. Yeah. Guess we're definitely killing Allando then.

flat, who did you target last night?

flat_footed

2023-04-29, 04:52 PM

tears up post I was constructing

Okay. Yeah. Guess we're definitely killing Allando then.

flat, who did you target last night?

Kraken, hence my willingness to vote them earlier.

Batcathat

2023-04-29, 04:53 PM

Hmm. Regardless of my thoughts on flat/Allando in general, I feel like I trust the counter-claim more. If flat's lying, it'll be discovered as soon as Allando flips, so taking that chance (at least before seeing more people react to the claim) seems unnecessary. Trading one wolf for one townie is usually bad math for the wolves.

flat_footed

2023-04-29, 04:53 PM

In a perfect world, I'd be able to swap to vote for them again, but a visible void isn't as useful.

Snowblaze

2023-04-29, 04:55 PM

There exist hypothetical worlds where flat is a wolf and thinks votes are going to flip to him because of the claim so is trying to buy himself an extra day.

I don't think those are particularly plausible. Wolf!flat/town!Allando worlds were unlikely anyway.

- - - Updated - - -

Going to sleep, hopefully my tinfoil worlds cease to exist and we get that wolf flip.

Batcathat

2023-04-29, 05:03 PM

I suppose this means that if Allando flips wolf, the Devil isn't in play, at least.

Illven

2023-04-29, 05:07 PM

Batcathat

2023-04-29, 05:12 PM

..... Thought occurs. I'm not sure how likely I think it actually is.

But if the wolves are Allando and Flat. Could this be a sacrifice play for Flat to get towncred.

As in. The devil knows that Kite isn't an actual role. Therefore Allando fake claims Kite, then Flat also fake claims Kite.

I kinda like it, since it would mean I wasn't wrong about flat. Though it's still kind of a risky lie, since Kraken could presumably test it by using his power.

flat_footed

2023-04-29, 05:13 PM

..... Thought occurs. I'm not sure how likely I think it actually is.

But if the wolves are Allando and Flat. Could this be a sacrifice play for Flat to get towncred.

As in. The devil knows that Kite isn't an actual role. Therefore Allando fake claims Kite, then Flat also fake claims Kite.

There is no universe where wolf! flat risks outting himself day 1 to make a last vote to save his wolf buddy.

AvatarVecna

2023-04-29, 05:14 PM

I kinda like it, since it would mean I wasn't wrong about flat. Though it's still kind of a risky lie, since Kraken could presumably test it by using his power.

And since wolves don't generally have the ability to kill in this game, we won't end up spending each day going "oh no the only person who could've confirmed flat was telling the truth tragically passed away guess we have to wait until tomorrow for someone else to try and use their power".

Also, default is always trust the counterclaim. Sorry Allando

Illven

2023-04-29, 05:18 PM

There is no universe where wolf! flat risks outting himself day 1 to make a last vote to save his wolf buddy.

To save the cult leader perhaps?

AvatarVecna

2023-04-29, 05:20 PM

To save the cult leader perhaps?

Assuming they're even in the game, and there's no guarantee that they are IIRC

bladescape

2023-04-29, 05:20 PM

Allando

Hi I'm back to where I was before I meme

- - - Updated - - -

Also scaring AV is fun

- - - Updated - - -

The secret info might be that I'm sick

flat_footed

2023-04-29, 05:24 PM

To save the cult leader perhaps?

It's still a significant risk for very little reward. So yes, not even then.

And I suppose my only other question now is if I vote Kraken to enable my void for N2.

Batcathat

2023-04-29, 05:27 PM

It's still a significant risk for very little reward. So yes, not even then.

And I suppose my only other question now is if I vote Kraken to enable my void for N2.

I don't think you have to, it says: "Starting in the next Standby Phase, if you ever vote for that Player, they cannot activate any abilit(ies) on the next Main Phase 2." so if you're telling the truth, it should be active no matter what.

flat_footed

2023-04-29, 05:39 PM

Illven

2023-04-29, 05:41 PM

Assuming you don't try to lynch me D3.

No, what batcathat is saying is based on the reading of the ability. Since you voted for Kraken today at all, they shouldn't be able to use their power tonight.

Tomorrow doesn't come into it.

Book Wombat

2023-04-29, 05:44 PM

Allando it is then?

flat_footed

2023-04-29, 05:44 PM

I don't think you have to, it says: "Starting in the next Standby Phase, if you ever vote for that Player, they cannot activate any abilit(ies) on the next Main Phase 2." so if you're telling the truth, it should be active no matter what.

No, what batcathat is saying is based on the reading of the ability. Since you voted for Kraken today at all, they shouldn't be able to use their power tonight.

Tomorrow doesn't come into it.

That was my first question to Xi. Actual votes are the only ones that count.

Illven

2023-04-29, 05:46 PM

I would then personally prefer you vote for Kraken.

flat_footed

2023-04-29, 05:49 PM

Kraken it is, then.

Batcathat

2023-04-29, 05:49 PM

I would then personally prefer you vote for Kraken.

I agree. We should have enough votes on Allando to handle any vote manipulation, even without flat's, so Kraken being able to test this claim (assuming Kraken is trustworthy) seems like a good idea.

AvatarVecna

2023-04-29, 05:51 PM

I'm tempted to volunteer tbh

- - - Updated - - -

it would be pretty funny

- - - Updated - - -

I guess that's only relevant to later power uses though. Would take even longer to get proof. Eh.

Xihirli

2023-04-29, 05:55 PM

Turn 2: End of Main Phase 1

Battle Phase

Mizar draws, glancing at his card but choosing to ignore it. "I reveal Galaxy Dragonslayer in my hand to summon Galaxy Brave!"
Kite smirked. "Galaxy Brave gains attack when you have another monster in your graveyard. With zero attack points, you can't tribute it to get out your Galaxy-Eyes!"
"Next, I'll Normal Summon Galaxy Dragonslayer and enter my battle phase! Galaxy Dragonslayer gains one thousand attack points whenever it attacks a Dragon... attack!"
"Then I'll just use Galaxy-Eyes Photon Dragon's effect to banish both of our monsters!"
"Oh, will you? Because no dragon under attack by my Galaxy Dragonslayer may activate any effects! So because Galaxy Dragonslayer has 2000 attack points, it rises to exactly equal your dragon's, and they crash into one another! Both are destroyed!"
The dragonslayer, harpoon in hand, jumps through the light spilling from Kite's Dragon even as the lasers slice him apart. He gets off a single blow, and both images shatter.
"With Galaxy Dragonslayer in my graveyard, Galaxy Brave gains two thousand attack points! Now, Galaxy Brave, attack Kite directly!"
Kite is flung back, and his eyes widen in shock when he sees a hairline scratch on the inside of his visor. "Oh no..."
"Your spirit is strong, Kite... but is your spacesuit?"

Back on earth, Marin draws her card and discards two cards to activate "Xyz Reborn! This allows me to summon one Xyz monster from my graveyard, but negate its effects!"
"Do you think I fear a Ragnazero with no effects?" Quinton asks.
"No... but you SHOULD fear a Ragnafinity!" Marin throws down "Rank-Up Magic: Barian's Force! Not only does it rank up my monster, but it also steals your monster's Xyz Materials! Now, Ragnazero! Open the waygates for CHAOS NUMBER 103: RAGNAFINITY! Now, Ragnafinity, attack Quinton's Dyson Sphere, which can now be attacked due to having no materials!"
Wielding a dual scythe, the icy reaper spun into action as Quinton flips up a trap card.
"I activate Xyz Rebuff! While you control an Xyz monster, I can discard a spell from my hand to activate it! I discard... Rank-Up Magic: Argent Chaos Force!"
"Argent?"
"My father isn't the only one who's stolen Barian power. I have modified it to suit my own needs. Now I can improve Number 9: Dyson Sphere into Chaos Number 9: CHAOS Dyson Sphere!"
"That's pretty redundant, but my Ragnafinity's power far exceeds it!"
"What you don't know is that in battle, instead of fighting, my new Dyson Sphere attaches your monster and ALL of its Xyz Units to itself!"
"What!?"
"Farewell, Ragnafinity!"
Marin's monster vanished, and Quinton drew.
"Now I detach ALL materials from Dyson Sphere to deal damage to you equal to one thousand times its Xyz Units! So enjoy being the first of the Barians to fall, Marin!"
"No...." Marin growls, madness in her eyes. "I won't be dragged down by you!" And even as her form flickers from the power of Dyson Sphere, she reaches out her arms and explodes into icy shards which impact the support beams and shake the building.

In the guest room with Kite's brother Hart, Kat and Flip wait, watching the news coverage about the event.
"We should be helping!" Kat insists, petting one of her cats.
Quinton's voice went out over the loudspeaker before Flip could agree or disagree.
"The building is going down, everyone out."
Kat gasps. "But how will Kite get back?"
There was no answer. Flip grabs hold of Kat's glove and started running.
He's already cleared the building before he notices there's no hand in it.

Kat had run up to the transporter and was trying to drag it out... then the building buckles around her as Flip screams.

Player
Role
Team

flat_footed

BatCatHat

CaoimhinTheCape

LetsGetKraken

AvatarVecna

Snowblaze

Illven
Kathy Katherine
Team ZeXal

Bladescape

Persolus

JeenLeen

BookWombat

Lady Serpentine

Caedorus
Byron
Team ZeXal

Allando
Marin
Barian

Xihirli
Don Thousand
Not any of yours :P

Turn 2: Start of Main Phase 2

Gimme them powers.

AvatarVecna

2023-04-29, 07:05 PM

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-29, 08:18 PM

Okay wow.

So, this is a significant positive townlean for flat. Not 100% definitive, since I could see Nash throwing under the bus at this point to get towncred, but like... second least suspicious.

Will need to look at the voting patterns. Good work town. I am fine being roleblocked tonight.

JeenLeen

2023-04-29, 09:25 PM

Been hard to make a post today. Just little time online between events of getting dinner cooked, eaten, and kids ready for bed.
I wrote up a post only to see Allando's claim, which meant rewrite.
Then, after that was done, we had the counterclaim.
After kids bathed and I finally had time to write a new post, Day ended. Back online now that everyone's in bed.

I have the post I was going to post, but seems bad to share it at Night. And Allando's flip made most of it moot anyhow.

Some possibility relevant thoughts to share at Night:
-I fear the wolves got what they wanted: knowledge of who Kite is. Why they want that, I'm not sure; doesn't seem worth the trade of making Kite trusted as town!Kite. But fakeclaiming Kite is an odd choice--it's a hard power to fake and somewhat easy to disprove--so (assuming it was a thoughtful choice and not a random desperate fakeclaim) they must have made it with some good reason.
-If flat is lying, we should know by Day via Kraken.
If there's significant worry that flat is Nash, Quattro should target him as "Nash" (to kill him in Standby Phase) so we can vote him off before he steals another vote.
-I still have a wolflean on Batcathat.

bladescape

2023-04-30, 01:20 AM

Gib me towncred for my bus pls.

Snowblaze

2023-04-30, 01:22 AM

It's still possible blade is a wolf lying about being Marin's target, but at the very least they're not lying about Marin being in the game.

- - - Updated - - -

We really need to stop killing off Illven and the brothers early every game
Yup, lol. In my defence I only tried to get the one who was a wolf killed.

Also RIP Illven, sorry for suspecting you for a while there.

Also also on further thought Kite does make a lot of sense as a fakeclaim for exactly Marin, since Allando was actually a roleblocker and could just block the people he claimed to have targeted. Which would have the added bonus of making bladescape look bad for being the only one to have claimed being targeted there. (Assuming town!bladescape, which given the flip I think is reasonable.)

Also also also I will admit the same tinfoil occurred to me wrt flat as Illven had last night. Having thought through it properly I don't think that's as likely especially with Allando not being Nash so saving him not being so much of a priority for wolves. But still. flat is not cleared.

Eh. May or may not dig into partner analysis properly today.

- - - Updated - - -

Gib me towncred for my bus pls.

bladescape, bussing a partner? That could never happen! The only thing more unlikely is Snowblaze doing it!

bladescape

2023-04-30, 05:05 AM

I want you all to know this nightphase is hilarious for me.

That is all.

Xihirli

2023-04-30, 08:20 PM

Turn 2: End of Main Phase 2

End Phase

Vector reclines, watching the duel between Nash and Quattro. "Yes, Nash, show me how you duel... I'm sure nobody will use that knowledge to TEAR YOU APART LATER!"
Nash glances annoyed at Vector and reveals the card he drew. "I drew Rank-Up Magic: The Seventh One! This card allows me to summon from my extra deck, Number 101: Silent Honor ARK!"
Quattro stumbles back. "Straight from the Extra Deck!?" He shouts.
"If only that were all, you might have a chance! No, I'm going to immediately rank up Silent Honor ARK immediately! Now, Unappeased Soul placed aboard the Ark. Arise from the abyss so deep not even light can reach it! Chaos Number 101: Silent Honor DARK!"
The Ark is swept up and becomes merely a weapon in the hands of a massive, black-armored warrior.
"You're finished, Quattro! You'll pay for what you've done!"
"What I've done is why I'm here. You wouldn't have stopped chasing Yuma for anyone else, now would you have? I'm sorry for who I was, Shark. I was a scared kid, caught up in what my father was doing. It changed me... changed me into someone who delighted in pain. I'm sorry that you and your sister were caught up in that."
Quattro lifts a hand and a trap goes up. "By paying half my life points, I can banish any monster on the field... and I choose Gimmick Puppet: Giant Grinder! Hhhhh!" Quattro twitches as his field is empty.
"So come at me, Shark. Take my soul. Hurt me, like I hurt you. But remember... it's never too late to stop and turn around. At least..." Quattro grins. "That's what I hope. Because, Shark, if there's hope for you... maybe I can make up for what I've done, too."
Nash's face steels in resolve. "Battle Phase."

Turn 3: Draw Phase

Powers refresh!

Standby Phase

As Yuma rides away in the back of his sister's, Kari gasps and slams on the brakes, stopping just shy of the silver-armored barian on the road.
"You're an honorable duelist, Yuma. And if you pass Astral over willingly I'll not have to hurt you or your friends."
Yuma, still weak, clutches his golden key. "N-no way, Dumon."
Dumon's eye glows and his duel disk grows from his arm. "Then come out and face me."

Player
Role
Team

flat_footed

BatCatHat

CaoimhinTheCape

LetsGetKraken

AvatarVecna

Snowblaze

Illven
Kathy Katherine
Team ZeXal

Bladescape

Persolus

JeenLeen

BookWombat

Lady Serpentine

Caedorus
Byron
Team ZeXal

Allando
Marin
Barian

Xihirli

Main Phase One

Begin thine votes!

bladescape

2023-04-30, 08:21 PM

I am waiting for Kraken tbh. For reasons.

Let'sGetKraken

2023-04-30, 08:30 PM

I am waiting for Kraken tbh. For reasons.

Yes, I can confirm I was blocked last night. If flat is lying, he's aligned with a role-blocker... which I don't think is possible on the Barian side. So about as hard cleared town as you can get without being an innocent child.

- - - Updated - - -

Bladescape also gets significant towncred, as do Persolus (to an extent - I can see a wolf "random" voting to distance themselves, but it's not the most likely scenario) and Snow, who I might just be terrible at reading.

Will need to look at Day 2 patterns tomorrow now that Allando has flipped and the night has passed.

JeenLeen

2023-04-30, 08:43 PM

The only "flat is Nash" scenario I could think of that would make some sense if is flat and Kraken are the last wolves, and Kraken claims the "delay death" person to at least buy time for Nash!flat. Really unlikely scenario, but Kraken claiming a role that is knowingly voidable shoots that theory in the foot.

I mean, I guess it's possible flat and Kraken are the last wolves, but I doubt it.
And if they were, I don't think they would have voted Marin. (In the end, flat didn't, but Kraken did.)

---

Trey, if you used Kat's power on flat last Night, and one other person targeted them, my money's on that person being Nash trying to votesteal the towncore dude.

- - - Updated - - -

About to sign off until tomorrow, but Batcathat still looks the most suspicious to me.

Persolus

2023-04-30, 09:05 PM

I got hit by a town role last night.

JeenLeen

2023-04-30, 11:13 PM

I should have gone to bed a while ago, but I had a thought, then checked some things.
Now I have quite the post to make.

But, uh, first, I think I mixed up watcher/tracker with how Kat's power worked. But point being that I still think Nash might've targeted flat last Night.

---

We've been lied to. I think but not sure by the Narrator.

Alright, 15 players it is.
But 14 in the player roster.
Could be an innocent typo, but...

Recruitment list shows 14 players. Also look at Alito and Don.

Alito – The Lancer
You’ve always been a loner, and you prefer to handle things on your own to working as a team. Still, what Nash says goes…
Number 105: Battlin’ Boxer Star Cestus
On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Player and roll a die. On a 6, that Player is Destroyed.
Rank-Up Magic: Quick Chaos Once per duel, if you would be destroyed you instead lose all of your special abilities.

Don Thousand – Barian Deity: ??????? ?????? ruler of Barian World. ????? ?????? secretly ?????? ?????? with one of the Barian Emperors. ?????? ???? ???? Numeron Code.
Chaos Number 1000: Numerounius ???? ?????? ????? ????? ???? ???? all players ??? ???? ??? lose.

Rank-Up Magic: Numeron Force
????? ????? rewrite ????? ??????? numeron ?????? ??????

Player list:
Illven
CaoimhinTheCape
Snowblaze
JeenLeen
Lady Serpentine
BookWombat
Bladescape
BatCatHat
Persolus
Caedorus
flat_footed
Let’sGetKraken
AvatarVecna
Allando

I took some time last week to try to guess Don's power. Looked up the lore on a wiki, then tried subbing the ? for letters.

Don Thousand – Barian Deity: ??????? ?????? ruler of Barian World. ????? ?????? secretly ?????? ?????? with one of the Barian Emperors. ?????? ???? ???? Numeron Code.
Chaos Number 1000: Numerounius ???? ?????? ????? ????? ???? ???? all players ??? ???? ??? lose.

Rank-Up Magic: Numeron Force
Every Main Phase Two, ????? rewrite ??? one ????? ??????? numeron ?????? ??????

So it had a note about Main Phase two in its Rank-Up (not in recruitment), but the rest was the same. Many ????. But now look at D3's Alito and Don Thousand:

Alito – The Lancer
You’ve always been a loner, and you prefer to handle things on your own to working as a team. Still, what Nash says goes…
Number 105: Battlin’ Boxer Star Cestus
On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Player and roll a die. On a 6, that Player is Destroyed.
Rank-Up Magic: Quick Chaos After each use of Number 105: Battlin’ Boxer Star Cestus, the number you must roll to succeed on the Destruction is reduced by one. For example, on the second use you Destroy your target on a roll of a 5 OR 6.

Don Thousand – Barian Deity: ??????? ?????? ruler of Barian World. ????? ?????? secretly ?????? ?????? with one of the Barian Emperors. ?????? ???? ???? Numeron Code.
Chaos Number 1000: Numerounius Your votes count ?????? ????? ????? ???? ???? all players ??? ???? ??? lose.

Rank-Up Magic: Numeron Force
Every Main Phase Two, as long as you did not vote this turn, you may retroactively rewrite any one ability using the Numeron Code. Your rewrite lasts either until the next turn, or until somebody notices, whichever comes last.

Alito changed, and Don has much more text.
I don't think it had changed when game started. I remember checking after Xi noted some powers would change and be bolded.
The only one I noticed was in the Lovers, and it's NOT bolded now.
Making me think Xi has copy/pasted redits without the formatting.
I mean, I might've missed an edit to Alito's passive. But I doubt it.

But Don Thousand changed a ton.
Can someone look now and second these, in case it changes again as this post is definitely "somebody notices"?
I'm bringing attention to Alito, which should trigger it changing back if Don Thousand caused the change.

Anyone notice their powers being wonky?
Or remember a power being different than it is now?

Conclusion
I'm guessing we have a 15th player, it's Xi, and she's going to win once something about her votes equals plot-wise having all the Numereon Code.
Maybe relevant:
https://yugioh.fandom.com/wiki/Number_iC1000:_Numeronius_Numeronia_(anime)
https://yugioh.fandom.com/wiki/Don_Thousand
The power of Chaos Number 1000 makes me guess it's something like we lose if we vote her, since it's such a high attack power and it has specials to negate being kill in battle. But I fear the Rank-Up would let her retroactively rerwrite Quattro's ability so he can't kill Xi by targeting "Xi is Don Thousand". Though I guess trying would let us look over the powers and notice Quattro's changed...

Or, if not Xi, someone who didn't vote D1 or D2. Or at least D2 as I'm pretty sure I'm seeing Alito changed for today. (Me thinking Xi is Don hinges on the 14 vs 15 player thing being an intentional clue that Xi is the 15th player.)
Is Alito active and Vector not? That would explain the Kite fakeclaim; they hoped it was out of play, but it wasn't.

I'm not sure what to make of this. I don't want a lot of us to die by doing something foolish like voting her today, and we can't really afford to stall wolfhunting.
Xihirli
But I'll risk throwing a vote to her. If it kills me, y'all know not to try to vote her off.

- - - Updated - - -

And, yeah, I'm claiming.
In case Illven was correct and an explicit claim does something to Battle Position, I won't say my role, but it should be clear.

bladescape

2023-04-30, 11:30 PM

Interesting.

My power hasn't changed yet.

Last night was hilarious but entirely within the scope of my power.

Snowblaze

2023-05-01, 12:51 AM

Morning.

Can confirm on checking the OP that Don and Alito's roles are what Jeen quoted, and also that my power hasn't changed. So there is definitely someone rewriting roles. Is that person Xihirli?

...actually now I think about it that's surprisingly plausible. Fifteen players instead of fourteen, and would Xihirli grant something that powerful to a player... wait, no, that's not possible.

Anyway. I don't know that there's much we can do about it rn, so let's hunt wolves instead.

Living non-Snowblaze players: AvatarVecna, Batcathat, bladescape, Book Wombat, CaoimhinTheCape, flat_footed, JeenLeen, Lady Serpentine, Let'sGetKraken, Persolus.

Reads, pending ISOs.

Pretty much mechanically confirmed and also counterclaimed a wolf: flat_footed
Townreads: AvatarVecna, JeenLeen
Townread but with mild paranoia: bladescape
Townleans: CaoimhinTheCape, Let'sGetKraken
Thin townlean but also can you do stuff please?: Persolus
The same except the townlean is even thinner and probably so thin it shouldn't exist: Lady Serpentine
Null for being himself: Book Wombat
Partner equity with Allando?: Batcathat

- - - Updated - - -

Something just clicked in my brain. This might be a stupid read, but. It fits. I think.

I think Batcathat/Allando are w/w. Because Illven isn't the Caedorus vote we're all forgetting and not scrutinizing enough, BCH is. And I townread them for it because I thought taking actual stances was towny for them but if they're doing it to protect a wolf partner it makes so much more sense...

And then their treatment of Allando/flat today is just. I thought it was weird earlier but it didn't click that it was wolfy-weird and in particular wolf-distancing-from-their-partner-Allando weird. It's just... "I think Allando/flat are w/w but also I want to kill flat first" and having that even while voting for Allando so they always had that route off the wagon.

(Their last post also kind of read like TMI Allando flips wolf at first glance, it isn't necessarily but that's where the idea first game from ftr.)

I don't know how confident in this I am, I might wonder what on earth this idiot was thinking in a few hours, but I definitely think it's a theory worth consideration.

Sanity check appreciated, please!

- - - Updated - - -

Oh, lol, just actually read Jeen's BCH ISO and "if flat flips town and Allando flips wolf, BCH looks more suspicious". I was beaten to it.

Reposting since it's kind of relevant now. It may not be the best articulated, it was trying to convert a flash of insight into words and might well have failed.

So. Yes. Is it a valid case? Why/why not?

(I am in fact aware that BCH switched to Allando D2. I don't think that's enough to conclusively unpair them, but that might just be me not giving sufficient weight to counterevidence. I will look back through that shortly.)

AvatarVecna

2023-05-01, 01:06 AM

Yes, I can confirm I was blocked last night. If flat is lying, he's aligned with a role-blocker... which I don't think is possible on the Barian side.

Girag – The Big Guy
More a puncher than a thinker, you pretty much do what you’re told. Maybe just by Nash.
Number 106: Giant Red Hand
On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Player.
This end phase, cancel out their next special ability.
Rank-Up Magic: Brute Force You always win ties.

To play Devil's advocate, this seems like a void to me.

Snowblaze

2023-05-01, 01:12 AM

Allando: 2 (Illven Snowblaze)
flat_footed: 3 (Allando Batcathat JeenLeen)
Let’sGetKraken: 2 (Bladescape flat_footed)
Persolus: 1 (Let’sGetKraken)

Quoted so we can see where the votes started before this. flat was actually lead wagon at that point, which I didn't realise properly since I spent most of D2 completely unaware of the vote count.

Flat's not going to flip wolf. Allando.
Self-preservation. I'd call it NAI if flat wasn't town anyway.

Allando 3: Illven, Snowblaze, flat_footed
flat_footed 3: Allando, Batcathat, JeenLeen
Let'sGetKraken 1: bladescape
Persolus 1: Let'sGetKraken

Though wolves have a different picture since they obviously know who Nash is and who's Xyz Material now.

Alright, I'm sorry Allando. I don't think this is necessarily us hitting a wolf here but this does give us some information and I would rather see this happen than flat or I voted out.
According to public vote count at least, this breaks the tie.

Allando 4: Illven, Snowblaze, flat_footed, Let'sGetKraken
flat_footed 3: Allando, Batcathat, JeenLeen
Let'sGetKraken 1: bladescape

That... doesn't instinctively feel like a bus, I think. I'd be expecting more conviction/certainty/justification than yeah, I'm not convinced but it's better than the alternatives.

Also at this point, if Nash was on flat and the Xyz Material was on Allando then the former would have actually died.

Unless I'm mistaken, the idea was that it was a reference to the poet Lord Byron.

Anyhow, it seems unlikely that I'll get enough support on lynching flat (and Snow might have a point), so Allando it is.
This... yeah. The momentum has already been swung back towards Allando, I don't think this is clearing atp. Thoughts on it in particular welcome.

Then the claim happened. I'll leave this here and do a separate post for reactions to it.

- - - Updated - - -

To play Devil's advocate, this seems like a void to me.

Yeah, but... a) giving wolves two voiders is weird setup design and b) we can safely assume Nash is in the game and the role changing thing would seem to imply that so is Alito, and four wolves seems too many for this game.

- - - Updated - - -

Okay, Caoimhin not voting yesterday was likely due to being busy IRL and hence NAI. High content to post count ratio, considering I was surprised to find they only had four.

Batcathat

2023-05-01, 01:29 AM

Okay, Caoimhin not voting yesterday was likely due to being busy IRL and hence NAI. High content to post count ratio, considering I was surprised to find they only had four.

While you might be right, it's worth keeping in mind that the wolves knew that one of the people who voted Allando (which is everyone but flat, Ti, Cao and Persolus if my sheet is correct and the latter voted Allando D1) would die. So while bussing would normally be the obvious choice, there's additional motivation not to do so in this case. That said, the risk of dying isn't that big, so a wolf might take the chance to not look suspicious.

In regards to the case against me, I'm not sure how to respond since it seems mostly based on me suspecting Allando but having a different idea of the order to lynch the suspects.

The idea of the narrator being a player and having that kind of power is interesting/scary, will think more on it when more awake.

Snowblaze

2023-05-01, 01:36 AM

While you might be right, it's worth keeping in mind that the wolves knew that one of the people who voted Allando (which is everyone but flat, Ti, Cao and Persolus if my sheet is correct and the latter voted Allando D1) would die. So while bussing would normally be the obvious choice, there's additional motivation not to do so in this case. That said, the risk of dying isn't that big, so a wolf might take the chance to not look suspicious.

In regards to the case against me, I'm not sure how to respond since it seems mostly based on me suspecting Allando but having a different idea of the order to lynch the suspects.

The idea of the narrator being a player and having that kind of power is interesting/scary, will think more on it when more awake.
Mmm. That's a point actually but also. Eh, I could see there being wolves in that pile but it feels too much like just-the-lowest-posters to be correct. (Also I believe Wombat also didn't vote Allando.)

No response to the case against you is required. Just find a wolf who isn't you or show towny process in attempting to.

AvatarVecna

2023-05-01, 01:39 AM

Yeah, but... a) giving wolves two voiders is weird setup design and b) we can safely assume Nash is in the game and the role changing thing would seem to imply that so is Alito, and four wolves seems too many for this game.

1) This is part of why I kinda doubted Mirin was a voider when her power read nothing like a void.

2) I can't find any text anywhere indicating Nash has to be in the game. He's thematically appropriate, due to being the main antagonist; he's mechanically appropriate, due to his power being stronger than other wolf powers in an all-PR game with no default wolfkill.

3) The way Don's power currently reads does not require them to target a power that's actually in the game, and they're (presumably) not in contact with the wolves and so couldn't be in cahoots with the "knows all roles in the game" wolf even if they wanted to be. "Don using their power on Alito proves that Alito is in the game" is only true if A) Xihirli is Don, and B) Xihirli is actually picking which power to change and how.

I think that even for Xi, narrator picking and choosing which powers to change, and how to change them, would be influencing the game too much; I think it's more likely that Xi is rolling on a list of all powers, and whichever one gets rolled gets shifted to a predetermined "Don-ified" version. This avoids narrator biasing the game, but it also means that "Don altered Alito" proves basically nothing. Of course since I'm playing devil's advocate...

3a) Regardless of who Don is, if I had a power-rewriting power, the first power I rewrote would definitely be my rewriting power to make it more useful to me. This lines up with what seems to have happened.

3b) If Xihirli was picking who to alter and how...well, changing Alito in this manner makes sense, to me.

Batcathat

2023-05-01, 01:41 AM

Mmm. That's a point actually but also. Eh, I could see there being wolves in that pile but it feels too much like just-the-lowest-posters to be correct. (Also I believe Wombat also didn't vote Allando.)

No response to the case against you is required. Just find a wolf who isn't you or show towny process in attempting to.

Yeah, I agree that it kinda seem too easy to be true (especially if there's two wolves left). BW did vote Allando, I just double-checked.

Fair enough. I was pretty locked into it being Allando and flat (who technically still might be a wolf but I admit the chance is very slim at this point) so I'm not really sure where to begin. Maybe try to figure out if my gut was onto something about Cao.

- - - Updated - - -

Maybe a quick read list can help me sort out my thoughts.

AvatarVecna: I still think the not-claim seems mostly towny, but other than that I don't have a lot to go on. The case against blade kinda gave me flashbacks to AV's case against me in Love Letters, which isn't good but also not really built on much.
Bladescape: The combination of voting Allando D1 (which would not only be bussing a wolf buddy when there was no need but also a one in four chance of dying if someone switched their vote) and claiming to have been targeted by Marin (I guess Allando could've abstained from using his power to sell that claim, but I don't really see a good reason for it) makes me feel pretty good about blade. Probably my strongest town read.
BookWombat: Not much to go on.
CaoimhinTheCape: I've had a bad feeling about some of Cao's posts and not voting Allando doesn't help. Should probably ISO.
flat_footed: Seems to be town, after all. Slight chance he isn't, but can go to the back of the line for now.
JeenLeen: For someone who's been decently active, I don't really have a feel for Jeen. Should probably ISO.
Lady Serpentine: Not much to go on, but one of the few who didn't vote Allando. Maybe a slight wolf lean?
Let’sGetKraken: Feels pretty towny and could probably have gotten flat lynched today by claiming not to have been blocked. Another ISO candidate.
Persolus: Not much to go on, but voted Allando D1 so slight town lean.
Snowblaze: As is often the case, I'm all over the place about Snow. Initially I was quite suspicious but her reactions to being wagon'd seemed towny (and she voted Allando D1, which is retroactively a good look). I still think her argument against me D2 was kinda weird even if I eventually understood it better, could be a wolf who saw Allando as a lost cause and used it to set me up for a mislynch? I'm not sure what all this adds up to. Should probably ISO, but it's so many posts. :smalltongue:

Batcathat

2023-05-01, 04:37 AM

In light of the claim, I decided to start with Jeen, but didn't have time to finish (not that many posts, but some are very long). So far feels pretty towny (if mostly because I agree with most of the reasoning), but stay tuned for the exciting conclusion.

Lots of votes, but none for AvatarVecna yet. That seems unusual enough that I'd guess some folk have extra reason not to vote her.
Stating she made a subtle claim, thus giving folk a disincentive to vote for her... good wolf move for someone who usually draws heat just by existing. I gamble she didn't actually hint a claim, but is just saying she did.

If anyone has picked up on her clue and wants me to move my vote, speak up and I'll move it.
To be clear, I mean "speak up" in that you found her claim and believe it (or at least have no strong reason to disbelieve it). Not speak up by saying what her claim actually is.

Something feels off about this post, but I can't put my finger on it so it's probably nothing.

I'll buy that for now.
I was mostly curious to see who might defend you, in case you flip wolf after all. I didn't actually think a strong wagon would start on you.

The fruit:

Still, something about this line sits uneasily with me. But I'm willing to see it as playful banter.

Regarding Battle Position, I started writing up a theory based on how the card game worked at least ten years ago, but then realized that while sharing that might help the town figure out this power, the town knowing how it works probably isn't helpful. I presume that player knows how his own power works. So speculation likely just helps the wolves.

I definitely understand the temptation to delve into mechanics discussions when rules are unclear, but let's be mindful of when speculation might help the wolves.

I think discussing possible number of wolves and the neutral existing is potentially helpful. I think Xi would want to include the neutral for the fun/chaos it likely adds, but that's just a metagaming reason. Xi got annoyed one game when we almost solved it by massclaiming, and she said that if we continued she'd tell the wolves some safe fakeclaims; that makes me think it's likely the wolf who knows inactive roles is in the game.
I find the number of wolves this game hard to get a strong sense of since the wolf powers have some revenge powers and "does not die easily" powers.

I don't like voting someone for "hedgey" language that is really just noting some possibilities we don't have any way of knowing which is true. I'll join the Snowblaze for now.

The comment about moving away from AV could be genuine or a wolf giving up on a wagon that wasn't going to happen while trying to make it look like they didn't want it in the first place. The mech talk is probably NAI. Not sure what to think of the vote for Snow, could be wanting to set up alternate town wagons but I was also suspicious of Snow at this point so could be genuine.

AV, is that you saying Book Wombat looks wolfy, or you saying Cao looks wolfy?

Probably a reasonable question regardless of alignment and potential wolf buddies, so NAI.

I wrote most of this up during Night phase, since I knew I'd be busy until about halfway through Day.
But my biggest though this "how no NK?"
With the timing, I don't think we could block a NK this first End Phase, right, since ours wait until Standby? Even the "delay death" by a phase power wouldn't be active yet to block the first kill.

Iffy vibes from Allando and Cao.
flat_footed seems odd given the last-minute vote.
Not sure on Snowblaze and Kraken. Want to rethink things.
I'm taking the talk at night with a grain of salt, as folk sometimes lie or try to avoid being targeted for NKs then. But that some talked... maybe relevant. Will probably say more tomorrow.

Anyway, here's my stuff:

Analysis

If Allando flips wolf, then bladescape and Snowblaze are almost assurdedly town. Or willing to bus an ally. More towncred to bladescape, as he easily could have changed his vote again as has been standard D1 for him this and other games.

If Allando flips wolf, flat_footed looks bad. His vote essentially protected Allando and sealed Caedorus' death.

Questions

flat_footed, anything more to say than the little you said?

Could you state (or restate) what you thought was suspicious?

Any thoughts on Illven or Batcathat after the death flip?
I don't really have anything on Illven. Batcathat feels a little suspicious to me, but he often does that regardless of alignment.

Tangent
I'll probably be offline this weekend except for late in the evening.

I mostly agree with the reasoning (and the vote, at the time) so probably towny (or I'm thinking exactly what the wolves wants me to think, which would be depressing but possible).

Fair point.
The wolves obviously know what wolves are in play. (Based on meta aspects, I assume the wolves know what roles aren't in play for town as well, but that's tangential here.) So it would be easy, and a good source for towncred, for a wolf to say they were impacted when they weren't. Might even help if the wolf plans on fakeclaiming an info-gathering role but wants an excuse not to know too much.

If bladescape is a wolf, I'd bet Marin isn't in play. I don't see the wolves willingly giving up a semi-void for some towncred.

I assumed so, but, yeah, you're right.
Xihirli: do the wolves get a NK?

If they do... am I right that nobody's power could have blocked it N1?
If they do AND it couldn't have been blocked, some heat to the inactive players. It's hard to believe the wolves might forget to put in a NK, and from bladescape (if honest) we know at least one was around to put in a night action.
But I think we saw the wolves forget to NK in one of AV's ghost games, so it can happen.

Not knowing about the lack of NK seems towny, but would be easy to fake. (Do I remember correctly that Snow said Jeen got town points for this? Which seems odd, since he was only reacting to what I said).

Based on no NK, we know Nash is in play.
If bladescape is honest, we know Marin is in play.
I assume Vector is in play to give wolves safe fakeclaims.

I don't think there'd be 4 wolves in a game this small, especially as Xi doesn't view the "Nash votesteal" as weak (if I read her post in Central right).
So likely 3 wolves, and it's likely Nash, Marin, and Vector.

---

It's early morning, so though I've read/skimmed everything, I haven't comprehended it enough.
In case someone else hasn't stated it, I read Marin's power -- and I think, but can't remember for sure that Xi said this in recruitment or Central -- that Marin's target gets the "no feedback" line regardless of what power they use. So bladescape isn't necessarily claiming a info-gathering power.

In fact, he might be claiming a non-info-gatherer explicitly. The only way to be sure your "no info" is from Marin and not another source* is if you couldn't get that line from your power. Though I wouldn't be surprised if town!bladescape is being overconfident in his claim about Marin to 1) share info with town and 2) misdirect wolves about his power.
*assuming other powers can mess with results. I think that's the case but aren't reading through the powers again yet.

AV: are you just proposing mechanical possibilities to help us understand the game, or also making an argument that bladescape is probably a lying wolf?
---

Votewise, I'm comfortable with Allando or flat_footed, so I'll leave my vote where it is.

Mostly mechanical speculation, probably NAI but if Jeen flips wolf it might be worth taking a closer look at.

Initial thoughts on AV/bladescape:
I wouldn't put this past a AV/bladescape wolf-pair, but it seems too odd to do it while neither have any heat. Well, I guess that's actually the safest time to protect your scumbuddy... but both of them can be tricksey enough that WIFOM spirals a ton. I have a townread gut on both of them, but don't trust it a ton. AV didn't vote bladescape, so her words don't have a lot of weight.

I think I get AV's point. Here's why (might be rephrasing/summarizing her argument, but I'm trying to put it into my words/thought process):
Most any townie, if targeted by Marin, would share "I got targeted by Marin". The wolves know if Marin is out there and know who Marin targeted. It doesn't hurt town at all to share that info.
The only risk is outting oneself to the wolves as an info-gatherer or not. In that regard, bladescape is an odd choice because he's more likely to sow misinformation alongside telling the town. (I'm reminded of Valmark's game where he softclaimed baner as vanillager and such was incredibly helpful for town.) So, yeah, choosing bladescape was suboptimal as he's less likely to leak extra info while sharing useful info.
But, as bladescape noted, a suboptimal plan does not mean the wolves didn't do it. Just means AV isn't a wolf (or, if you want WIFOM/paranoia, she is a wolf, wolves targeted bladescape, and this entire conversation was preplanned to discredit blade and gain AV towncred. But I'd rather not contemplate that many layers of deception.)

That's if bladescape is town. Now to ponder if he's wolf.
If Marin is not in play, I could see wolf!bladescape making this claim. It gains towncred, sows misinformation, and doesn't hurt the wolves at all.
If Marin is in play... there's still those reasons for wolf!bladescape to make this claim. At first I was thinking it wouldn't be worthwhile to risk wasting a void N1, but, as AV pointed out, the odds of actually hitting an info-gatherer are low. Perhaps it would make sense to wait N1, say you were targeted by Marin, and by D3 when a real townie has been targeted you are basically considered town. Yeah, I can see that play as a tricksey play. And bladescape is tricksey enough to propose it.

All that said, others looks more suspicious. And I don't think the "bladescape is a lying wolf" is very likely. But I'll warrant it's a believable scenario.

FYI: in a prior game, Illven effectively claimed a role to AV via alluding to a play-by-post game both were in. I assume this is the same thing, and AV now knows what role Illven is claiming.
(Of course, if Vector is in play, doesn't mean Illven isn't a wolf claiming a safe fakeclaim.)

Again I mostly agree with the reasoning, so probably/hopefully towny.

So bladescape is claiming an info-gathering role.
Whether he's lying to sow misinfo to wolves at the expense of probably-irrelevant misinfo to town... that's the question. The question he shouldn't answer.

I don't like this.
While it can look like just poking fun at bladescape for his enigmatic nature, it also looks like a wolf hoping to get him to leak info he shouldn't share.
flat_footed and Allando still look more suspicious to me, though...

Wolfleans: Allando, flat_footed
Kinda suspicious (but not strong): Batcathat*, Illven, Cao*
Kinda towny (but not strong): bladescape, AV, Kraken*
I'll probably have an opinion on Snowblaze once I reread and think through things better.

*This feeling is mostly from D1. I want to reread these two in light of the D1 flip, and also see if I really think they (or anyone else) was trying to shut down AV's discussion of Marin. As none have much/any heat today, might wait until D2, when we have more info, to do solid analysis on them.
Fairly neutral on most everyone else. Some gut feelings, but I don't trust them.

Being suspicious of Illven isn't great in retrospect, but was pretty reasonable at the time. Mostly agree with the reads list.

Yes.

I'll work on it. I need to do some actual "my job" work, but I should be able to fit this in by this afternoon.

In short, shutting down conversation looks wolfy, especially if bladescape flips wolf.

When I first read through D2's posts, I felt like AV's discussion of Marin was sidetracking more pertinent stuff. Basically changing the flow of the conversation from analysis/wolfhunting to mechanical discussion. (Note this was me skim-reading walls of text early morning. My reading comprehension wasn't great.)

But then I realized it was building an argument against bladescape, and thus was very pertinent. Or, rather, I suspected that was it so I asked AV explicitly and then she confirmed. And also she called out folk not giving full responses. That part was persuasive to me, even if her overall argument that bladescape claiming Marin is a good wolf ploy is not super convincing. (As I said, I get the idea, and it's believable, but I'm not willing to vote bladescape because he claimed the voider hit him.)

So trying to shut down the talk could be protecting wolf!bladescape and/or casting shade at town!AV. Or WIFOM to make folk think a wolf is protecting bladescape, but y'all know how WIFOM spirals.
When I reread, I'll try to get a sense of if folk (if wolf) really were trying to shut down conversation or were just "wall of text about hypotheticals is hard to parse".

On one hand, this feels solvy, on the other it's also rather hedgy (yes, I realize me calling someone else hedgy is basically shooting a bazooka in the glass house).

Reread some stuff.

D1 general things to remember:
1) AV said Book Wombat looked wolfy D1 in post 52. Book Wombat was shading Cao in post 51. Book Wombat replies "just going with my gut" in 59.
2) if Allando flips wolf, bladescape likely town. Vote was close at end of D1, and he could have easily moved his vote. Some towncred to Snowblaze, too.

I tried doing an ISO, but got lost in my notes.
So I'm going back to just rereading then quoting the ones I find particularly relevant while doing general thoughts.

General N1 Chatter: I generally frown on nightchat unless it's important legacy intel or to spread misinfo.
Book Wombat's post seems odd, but I think some towncred. A wolf wouldn't want to draw Trey's attention to this facet of the power, while a townie might want to make it clear.
I don't like how much Kraken or Snowblaze talked, but it seems harmless, e.g., not super-likely to help wolves aim. Still, a little suspicious. Same to Allando and Batcathat. Especially if we assume most of them believed a NK was being aimed.

Ending night, overall town lean on Snowblaze and Kraken. Although they suspect each other (or at least Kraken suspects Snowblaze), both seem sincere.
Could definitely see Batcathat as a wolf. But mostly gut pings, nothing solid, and I've got those from him as either alignment in the past.

Kraken
From D1 and night chatter, I'm pretty sure Kraken and Snowblaze are not both wolves.

doing the rest in the next post, as I'm trying to clear my "Reply+" cache

While I get the opinion that talking at night can be bad for town, I don't see how it's something wolves would be more likely to do, so while cautioning against it is reasonable I don't understand why it'd be suspicious.