What would be a Theives Guild response?

[Anastopholies]

I'm not sure what I should do and I'm hoping for some insight. A bit of a read (sorry!)

In my fantasy homebrew setting I love to have the world's response to player actions feel grounded and real. Some background: The city of Nashorn has a pretty powerful theives guild known as just "The Guild." They, and the crown, represent the power within the city. The Guild would love to take over but don't because of the relationship the crown has with the nearby holy Dwarven site of Dunsals with temples to the Dwarven pantheon. If the Guild and crown were to fight the Guild would probably win due to guerilla tactics. However they would very much lose if the paladins, clerics, and champions of Dunsals were to get involved. And a conflict of such scale would be economically devastating for all. So there's an unwritten truce keeping things "safe." The Guild's actions, some which are illegal, are tempered to make sure Dunsals doesn't get involved.

The PC warlock's backstory is he was sent to steal an object and that was his initiation into the Guild. The sword he stole spoke to him and he ran away with it, instead of giving it to the Guild. So when the party suddenly showed up in Dunsals a year later, the guilds spies took notice. The party found the spies hideout, and after stealing sending stones from them, used the info to better their relationship with the leaders of Dunsals. The party, afraid of repercussions from the guild (though the guild wont start something in dunsals) went on a quest for one of the temples, rescuing some of their compatriots from an insane dragon. The party returned, now friends of Dunsals. The Crown took notice and invited the party to visit the castle, both for information on the main story, and to find out the party's goals.

What is the guilds response? I can see it 3 ways. 1. The guild is still furious at the blatant theft from them and will retaliate. 2.These PCs are now involved with dunsals, maybe powerful so lets truce and walk away. 3. This is an opportunity to get a powerful tool, so were going to attempt to work "with" them.

I'd love to hear your opinions.

[Slipjig]

Depends on several factors: did they actually need the sword for something, or was this just a test (maybe one they expected him to fail)? How powerful do they think the PCs are? Is the sword valuable enough to be worth the risk of tangling with (now presumably much more powerful) PCs? What was the relationship between the PC and the Guild before the incident? If he wasn't even a full member yet, the Guildmaster has some leeway on forgiving a transgression without looking weak.

OTOH, if the Guildmaster rules primarily through fear and/or his position is weak, he may not be in a position to let it go. Guildmasters who tolerate disobedience probably don't last long. At a minimum, he might need some kind of tribute from the PC (either money or some other magic item) to maintain his authority. Or maybe he's willing to pretend that the PC has been acting as his agent the whole time, and getting the sword out of the city for a while was always the plan, and it taking PC as a Warlock was a happy accident (especially if he ISN'T confident the Guild can take the PCs anymore).

If you want to play it up, maybe have the Guildmaster make all sorts of horrible threats while having the PCs at a massive disadvantage... and then he breaks out laughing and makes it clear he's just screwing with them (this time).

[solidork]

My instinct would be to offer the party some means to square the debt in a way that would advance The Guild's goals, and not even ask them to do anything too egregious. Maybe there is some enemy of the guild that is also themselves a bad guy? A treasonous noble or a corrupt official, whose successors will be in the pocket of The Guild. Maybe they're tagged in to help resolve a dispute internal to The Guild; this would also make the party look good for taking out some prominent criminals.

[Pauly]

My assumption. “The Guild” operates through subtlety and pulling strings from behind the curtain.

What are “The Guild’s” objectives?
- Public humiliation of the one who did them wrong. Death is optional, but humiliation/loss of respect is the main goal.
- Prevent the Crown from shifting the balance of power in their favor
- Not to upset the Dunsals.

What I would have my Guildmaster do is set in wheels a plot that will make it look like the warlock, and whoever happens to be associated with him, have betrayed the Dunsals. And do it in a way that will bring discredit to the crown for being associated with the party. Bonus points if the plot in involves stealing a sword.
I assume the Guildmaster has spies and sleeper agents within the crown and dunsals, and would be willing to risk losing them for this plot.

While the plot is coming to fruition no attacks on the party or crown are to be carried our to keep suspicions low. The party sounds strong enough that the Guildmaster will want to avoid a direct confrontation simply because even if they defeat the PCs the collateral damage will be too great.
The Guildmaster might try to feed disinformation to the party through the PC’s former contacts with the guild.

Sample plot. The PCs find out that the Guild is planning to steal a sacred sword from the Dunsals. PCs go to the place of the sword to protect it. The thieves guild has already stolen the sword a long time ago and replaced it with a facsimile. At a ceremony a few days later the Guild’s agent declares the fake sword to be fake and discovers the real sword planted in his equipment. If possible the sword is hidden by use of a spell that it is known that the warlock possesses.
I think the best way for this plot to work is if the curator of the sword is a deep cover agent for the Guild. When the swordis first found to be fake he will direct a search of everyone’s chambers at the temple/museum.
The Guild’s bards and agents rapidly spread the news that the “heroic heroes” that the crown hired are loot rats who steal sacred objects from the dunsals.

If the plot is successful the PCs reputation in the town and dunsals is ruined, but the PCs aren’t prevented from carrying out the main plot line.

[Peat]

Depends on who runs the guild and why they want what they want?

The cold pragmatic response is simply to ensure that the Guild isn't seen to suffer and get ahead of things. Option 3, get the powerful tool makes sense.

If it's run by a someone or group of people with big egos, 1 seems more likely.

[King of Nowhere]

I'd think the guild would see escalation as very risky; the pcs are strong, attacking them will cost the lives of many guild members, and may even not work. on the other hand, they can't really do nothing, they have to make a show.
so, they may just try to make life hard for the party.
the party will be targeted by pickpockets. if they leave their horses tied somewhere, the horses may be stolen. if they have housing in the city, it will be looted. important npcs that the guild can influence will be less helpful. perhaps the guild will pass information on the party to some other villain.
the guild may also try to negotiate. it doesn't really matter what they ask; what the guild really wants is to save face and show that it can harrass even powerful people. if they feel they have power they may ask something important, like restitution of the sword. else, they may just try to ask something minor, to save face. either way, negotiation is open.

[KorvinStarmast]

The Guild appears to have a relationship with the Crown.

The Crown took notice and invited the party to visit the castle, both for information on the main story, and to find out the party's goals.

What is the guilds response? I can see it 3 ways. 1. The guild is still furious at the blatant theft from them and will retaliate. 2.These PCs are now involved with dunsals, maybe powerful so lets truce and walk away. 3. This is an opportunity to get a powerful tool, so were going to attempt to work "with" them. The party is being feted / celebrated by the Crown. The Guild has at least one mole/agent-in-deep cover, at Court. That Guild agent will slip, surreptitiously, a note to the Warlock clearly spelling out that the Warlock has transgressed, and owes a debt to the Guild.
Meeting at a neutral site is offered to square the debt. The meeting includes an offer:

"Do this favor for me, and your transgression will be overlooked/forgiven" is the theme that the Guild's leadership plays to.

The 'favor' could be anything, but there are three easy hooks here:

1. "Get me something from the Dunsals." (Holy Relic, special jewel, scroll of valuable lore, something)

2. "Get me this thing from The Crown." (this thing will be used as leverage with the Crown at a later date, or, as a Sword of Damocles to hold over the party's head later if they need the party to fall out of favor with the Crown, sort of a "double-cross kept in reserve in case they need to use it" for the guild Leadership).

3. A mission similar to the rescue from the crazy dragon.

Get me a Balor's left nut.
Get me a Couatl's pin feathers.
Get me a Unicorn's horn.
Get me five Owlbear eggs


Something along those lines. Depends on the party's level.

[Satinavian]

What is the guilds response? I can see it 3 ways. 1. The guild is still furious at the blatant theft from them and will retaliate. 2.These PCs are now involved with dunsals, maybe powerful so lets truce and walk away. 3. This is an opportunity to get a powerful tool, so were going to attempt to work "with" them.I'd love to hear your opinions.I would say option 3 is pretty much out. They are way too untrustworthy to handle anything important.

1 is risky, costly and doesn't provide much profit. It still could happen, when the party is in some particularly vulnerable situation, but otherwise no.

So option 2 it is. But i would add some more animosity. The party gets blacklisted from the guilds service. And that includes all legal services from people who are somewhat guild affiliated. So it is not only the blackmarket that is suddenly closed to them, they will find that e.g. Nashorns Magimart is as well. And most restaurants/Inns. To mend all that, the party must make amends. That would not involve a particularly difficult quest, but a monetary compensation (for sword and sending stones etc) and a public humiliation that shows that no one crosses the guild.

[Anastopholies]

What I would have my Guildmaster do is set in wheels a plot that will make it look like the warlock, and whoever happens to be associated with him, have betrayed the Dunsals. And do it in a way that will bring discredit to the crown for being associated with the party. Bonus points if the plot in involves stealing a sword.
I assume the Guildmaster has spies and sleeper agents within the crown and dunsals, and would be willing to risk losing them for this plot.

...woah. That's awesome!

[Pauly]

...woah. That's awesome!

Thank you.
I have started watching the old cold war spy series The Sandbaggers on youtube recently and that has really upped my game for double dealing, subtle backstabbery and plots with wheels within wheels.

Just thinking some more about the sample plot I suggested. I think I would start with the real sword already hidden in the room that will be assigned to the warlock. The players will find it if they search for it carefully, but they have no reason to search their rooms allocated to them by an ally.
When the fake sword is publicly declared to be fake have a well known guild member stand up and say (truthfully) “we didn’t steal the sword” and (truthfully) “we kicked the warlock out of the guild because he’s untrustworthy.”

Then after the PCs have been publicly shamed but before they’ve cleared their names have the guild offer them significant help with the main plot on the condition that they don’t clear their names. Basically don’t upset the balance of power here and go away and leave us alone and we’ll give you something more valuable than your lost reputation.

[Wintermoot]

Frame the PCS for some crime against the paladins in order to drive a wedge between them and their new allies.

Or better still, trick them into doing something against the paladins thinking they are doing somethign else. Let them frame themselves.

[Ionathus]

Almost every Thieves Guild in fantasy survives by not rocking the boat. Societal upheaval is bad for business, and direct confrontation is bad for people with class abilities like "sneak attack". I would have yours do similarly: take the path of least resistance that still gets them some of what they want. They'll only mess with the PCs if they can do so without drawing attention. Survival is more important than success.

Leadership in any well-established Thieves Guild either has a solid grasp on when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. If they're incapable of letting grudges go and have survived for any period of time, then they're not running a thieves' guild: they're running a mob or a military dictatorship with extra steps.