The Death of Belkar

[WalterTheMighty]

I had a thought recently -

The way things are being set up, the only way the Order is going to get Reddy :redcloak: to listen is if they beat down the bony piece of crap first, right? But... what if we're wrong? What if they can't get him to listen? And even if they do manage to get him on board, how can we be sure the Dark One will be okay with it?

Here's my thought: The Dark One tapped into a new color of quiddity post mortem, so what if that happens to Belkar? It'd thematically work with what his arc has been thus far, and becoming a sexy shoeless god of war would probably be a better ending for him than, say, an actual death. If the Giant has confirmed nothing like this will happen, then that's that, but it seems like a logical and fitting end for the Belkster to me

EDIT: The only hole in this I can think of is that Belkar doesn't necessarily have a large following the way the Dark One did.

[Ruck]

EDIT: The only hole in this I can think of is that Belkar doesn't necessarily have a large following the way the Dark One did.

That's a hole big enough to drive the Dark One's army through.

I also, from a thematic perspective, don't think the ending will undercut the fact that the goblins have faced injustice and deserve some kind of resolution / restitution.

[WalterTheMighty]

That's a hole big enough to drive the Dark One's army through.

I also, from a thematic perspective, don't think the ending will undercut the fact that the goblins have faced injustice and deserve some kind of resolution / restitution.

Agreed. Even if it didn't have a ton of buildup, the obvious allegorical construct pertains to a matter that's become super relevant these past couple of years. I kinda doubt Rich is gonna throw it out now of all times

[Ruck]

Agreed. Even if it didn't have a ton of buildup, the obvious allegorical construct pertains to a matter that's become super relevant these past couple of years. I kinda doubt Rich is gonna throw it out now of all times

I concur. Beyond how it would cheapen the stakes of the story as it's been laid out to pivot away from the goblins at the last minute, I also agree that the topic is important to Rich, based on posts he's made on the forums about fantasy racism.

Well, good talk!

[brian 333]

I had a thought recently -

The way things are being set up, the only way the Order is going to get Reddy :redcloak: to listen is if they beat down the bony piece of crap first, right? But... what if we're wrong? What if they can't get him to listen? And even if they do manage to get him on board, how can we be sure the Dark One will be okay with it?

Here's my thought: The Dark One tapped into a new color of quiddity post mortem, so what if that happens to Belkar? It'd thematically work with what his arc has been thus far, and becoming a sexy shoeless god of war would probably be a better ending for him than, say, an actual death. If the Giant has confirmed nothing like this will happen, then that's that, but it seems like a logical and fitting end for the Belkster to me

EDIT: The only hole in this I can think of is that Belkar doesn't necessarily have a large following the way the Dark One did.

This topic has been walked around the park and has even spent a few weekends at Bernie's, but it always concludes with your final paragraph.

No worshippers, no ascension.

[Provengreil]

My bet on his demise is at the hands of the MitD. Not exactly intentionally though: My prediction is that

Xykon's old charm on the monster gets sprung in the final confrontation. Belkar, between his recent character development and a bit of possible foreshadowing in panel 6, (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1022.html) moves to save RC to keep the spell donation possible. He tries and fails to break through the charm while he's alive, but his death catalyzes MitD to be able to break through it anyway.

Much like when the messenger's death in the Battle for Azure City shocked Redcloak into a realization before, a similar event will play out and the spell gets donated because of this.

Belkar stays dead, not because he can't be raised, but either the tomb collapses and they can't get his remains to reanimate or because he edged into CN afterlife with his last act, and refuses to be raised and risk a change of station.

[Ruck]

My bet on his demise is at the hands of the MitD. Not exactly intentionally though: My prediction is that

Xykon's old charm on the monster gets sprung in the final confrontation. Belkar, between his recent character development and a bit of possible foreshadowing in panel 6, (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1022.html) moves to save RC to keep the spell donation possible. He tries and fails to break through the charm while he's alive, but his death catalyzes MitD to be able to break through it anyway.

Much like when the messenger's death in the Battle for Azure City shocked Redcloak into a realization before, a similar event will play out and the spell gets donated because of this.

Belkar stays dead, not because he can't be raised, but either the tomb collapses and they can't get his remains to reanimate or because he edged into CN afterlife with his last act, and refuses to be raised and risk a change of station.

Huh. I'd never considered that angle but it's really interesting, and even ties in a hanging piece of foreshadowing I hadn't figured out a way to fit into the endgame. I'm not fully sold yet, but at first glance I like it well enough and could see it working in the story:

We've seen the progression of Belkar's empathy, from Mr. Scruffy, to Enor and Gannji, to Durkon sacrificing himself to save Belkar even though they don't particularly like each other, because they're teammates and Belkar doesn't deserve his fate at Malack's hands. It would be the ultimate step in Belkar's character journey to sacrifice himself to save an enemy for the greater good.

[brian 333]

Posted in wrong thread somehow.

[Precure]

I don't think they need any reason to not resurrect him.

[KorvinStarmast]

Huh. I'd never considered that angle but it's really interesting, and even ties in a hanging piece of foreshadowing I hadn't figured out a way to fit into the endgame. I'm not fully sold yet, but at first glance I like it well enough and could see it working in the story:

We've seen the progression of Belkar's empathy, from Mr. Scruffy, to Enor and Gannji, to Durkon sacrificing himself to save Belkar even though they don't particularly like each other, because they're teammates and Belkar doesn't deserve his fate at Malack's hands. It would be the ultimate step in Belkar's character journey to sacrifice himself to save an enemy for the greater good. Nice take on that idea.

For Precure: Durkon can cast raise dead. Belkar and Durkon have a connection, so there's no way Durkon would not try. But as noted above, Belkar may choose not to return, just as Shojo chose not to return when the attempt to raise him came up.

[Synesthesy]

First, I can see no reason why Durkon wouldn't try everything he can to resurrect the only one who understood the vampire wasn't him. Durkon is that kind of guy. He would unlock true resurrection or even miracle if needed. So we'll need a very very good reason for Belkar not to come back.

Second, Belkar won't die at all as the oracle was wrong; PLEASE DO NOT DERAIL THE THREAD :)

[Tubercular Ox]

So we'll need a very very good reason for Belkar not to come back.

I agree with Provengreil:

Belkar stays dead ... or because he edged into CN afterlife with his last act, and refuses to be raised and risk a change of station.

[Synesthesy]

I agree with Provengreil:

I don't like this because I'm not sure Belkar would prefer the CN afterlife to coming back to life... If it was the CG afterlife, yeah, the eternity with Mr. Scruffy and Shojo is ok, it would be like his illusion dream.

[Tubercular Ox]

If it was the CG afterlife, yeah, the eternity with Mr. Scruffy and Shojo is ok, it would be like his illusion dream.

This is actually the afterlife I'm familiar with from other stories, where you can get an A for effort and then put on probation for a silly amount of time, but it's hard to say D&D should work that way when D&D has its own way of doing things.

[Metastachydium]

Nice take on that idea.

For Precure: Durkon can cast raise dead. Belkar and Durkon have a connection, so there's no way Durkon would not try. But as noted above, Belkar may choose not to return, just as Shojo chose not to return when the attempt to raise him came up.


I agree with Provengreil:

Seeing how Belkar was the one who explained how that works (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0410.html) earlier, that would be surprisingly beat and tidy indeed.

[Tubercular Ox]

Seeing how Belkar was the one who explained how that works (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0410.html) earlier, that would be surprisingly beat and tidy indeed.

Well, okay. I suppose I should practice being upbeat about this: Look what I can do with just an air freshener.

[gbaji]

It's a decent theory. I will observe, however, that there is a noticable lack of any statements from the Oracle (official or not), refering to Belkar ever actually being in any afterlife at all. Also no mention of an actual death, his body pushing up daisies, etc.

My money is still on some form of "eaten by the snarl"/"sucked into the planet in the rft and never returns".

[Anymage]

One fly in the "Belkar would prefer to stay dead" ointment is that someone willing to die for the sake of a greater plan is also most likely going to be inclined to come back so that they could keep supporting the greater plan. The only way I could see settling down for his eternal rest is if the threat is neatly wrapped up shortly after, and narratively it'd feel awfully rushed if Belkar's death happened so close to the whole comic coming to an end.

[Provengreil]

First, I can see no reason why Durkon wouldn't try everything he can to resurrect the only one who understood the vampire wasn't him. Durkon is that kind of guy. He would unlock true resurrection or even miracle if needed. So we'll need a very very good reason for Belkar not to come back.


IMO pretty much everyone in the party would have him back, were it possible.

Durkon you covered.
Roy: He's fully embraced his role as team leader AND as Lawful Good. If you have a dead teammate, you make a good faith effort to revive him, period. Also, I expect Roy has sensed Belkar's changed.
Elan: While he's grown, he'd still prefer everyone lives to get their own happy endings.
Vaarsuvious: Has a genuine appreciation for the opportunity to get back up and try to be a better person.
Haley: Saved her in Greysky City, AFTER she turned down a cure for his mark, which there's no way she's forgotten. This one's a bit weaker admittedly, but it appeals to rogues.

All of them would still probably turn him over to Hinjo and the paladins, but O'chul and Lien already discussed how he'd get to enjoy using his nonviolent skill to help out while serving his term.


It's a decent theory. I will observe, however, that there is a noticable lack of any statements from the Oracle (official or not), refering to Belkar ever actually being in any afterlife at all. Also no mention of an actual death, his body pushing up daisies, etc.

My money is still on some form of "eaten by the snarl"/"sucked into the planet in the rft and never returns".

I didn't intentionally preclude that, I just chose not to get too wordy. If the MitD knocks him into a rift it'd count for those purposes, much like the lair collapsing. It's the same overall concept.

[Tubercular Ox]

One fly in the "Belkar would prefer to stay dead" ointment is that someone willing to die for the sake of a greater plan is also most likely going to be inclined to come back so that they could keep supporting the greater plan. The only way I could see settling down for his eternal rest is if the threat is neatly wrapped up shortly after, and narratively it'd feel awfully rushed if Belkar's death happened so close to the whole comic coming to an end.

Redcloak and the purple quiddity, whatever the IFCC is doing, the planet in the rift, the MitD, and that's just the top contenders.

A big dose of "neat and tidy" is going to be necessary to fit all of those into the same box. In fact, it would probably be fruitful to start thinking about ways these things can be neater and tidier and treating them as serious proposals just because they're neat and tidy.

[gbaji]

I didn't intentionally preclude that, I just chose not to get too wordy. If the MitD knocks him into a rift it'd count for those purposes, much like the lair collapsing. It's the same overall concept.

Oh. I was talking specifically about actually dying and going to an afterlife, and whether/why he'd choose to be resurrected. I think it's not going to be a choice because his soul wont be in any afterlife where he could be resurrected.

I'm also not really sure about the MitD being directly involved. First off, MitD doesn't have any specific or strong connection to Belkar, such that his death would allow him to break the charm. I'd put that role on O'Chul instead. That relationship will have a payoff, and that's the most likely way it will pay off. Whether that involves O'Chul dying or not is up in the air. Secondly, I don't think Belkar's death/loss/whatever will be the result of a side effect of someone else's story arc. It'll be a choice he makes. Dying to MitD just doesn't resonate to me at all. What is Belkar dying for? To save Redcloak from one round of attacks from MitD? With no knowledge at the time that this will have any effect on anything? And... if we are assuming that MitD does break the charm, and the good guys win here, Redcloak can always be raised anyway. So Belkar stepping in the way and dying or not doesn't actually affect the outcome at all.

Dunno. Just seems like a really thin set of circumstances to make this work, when there are other/better plot elements already in place that would fill the same roles better from a story point of view.

[Precure]

We already seen in the perfect ending illusion back at the pyramid that Roy and Haley don't care about Belkar's death; Elan was the only one actually sad about it and even he didn't try to bring him back. So, that only leaves Durkon: Would he resurrect him? He saved him from being a vampire, a fate arguably "worser than death" but that doesn't mean he would bring back someone with that criminal score, as it would make Durkon responsible for any evil deeds Belkar might commit later.

[brian 333]

I feel that Belkar being alive in the Riftworld violates the prophecy, unless he can never again breathe or have a birthday.

And yes, the Oracle can see into the Riftworld because he can read the future editions of the comic which would presumably show us the halfling avoiding his prophecy.

[Kish]

We already seen in the perfect ending illusion back at the pyramid that Roy and Haley don't care about Belkar's death; Elan was the only one actually sad about it and even he didn't try to bring him back. So, that only leaves Durkon:
Indeed. Just as Belkar can never change, no one's expressed attitude toward him can change. And people's attitudes toward him changing as a result of him changing would be doubly impossible.

[Precure]

Indeed. Just as Belkar can never change, no one's expressed attitude toward him can change. And people's attitudes toward him changing as a result of him changing would be doubly impossible.

People can change, just not within few days. :smallsmile:

[Tubercular Ox]

And yes, the Oracle can see into the Riftworld because he can read the future editions of the comic which would presumably show us the halfling avoiding his prophecy.

The Oracle can decide to deliver a cooked prophecy for his own reasons. As long as they're literally true he retains his reputation.

[Peelee]

The Oracle can decide to deliver a cooked prophecy for his own reasons. As long as they're literally true he retains his reputation.

Sure, but nobody who has ever espoused this possibility (or the possibilities of the Oracle simply lying) has ever been able to give a convincing reason why the Oracle would gloat about Belkar's fate if it's not death.

[Provengreil]

People can change, just not within few days. :smallsmile:

Belkar started changing well before that illusion, Roy just wasn't listening. Much the same as how Team Evil is still oblivious to MitD's development because they've written him off as a lunk. The entire subplot of the Durkula arc was a commentary on the subtlety of character development, and Belkar spotted the fake part because he himself had been actively changing and could tell. Both Roy and Durkon openly discussed it with him several times.

[Jay R]

The only way I could see settling down for his eternal rest is if the threat is neatly wrapped up shortly after, and narratively it'd feel awfully rushed if Belkar's death happened so close to the whole comic coming to an end.

By contrast, I think that narratively, it would be perfect if Belkar's death were a climactic moment crucial to the story's successful end -- just like Tony Stark's, or Gollum's, or Don Diego's in The Mask of Zorro.

[Tubercular Ox]

Sure, but nobody who has ever espoused this possibility (or the possibilities of the Oracle simply lying) has ever been able to give a convincing reason why the Oracle would gloat about Belkar's fate if it's not death.

Obviously, if this is going to happen at all, it's going to be because the Oracle has foreseen that Belkar will not do what is necessary unless the Oracle first does what is necessary.

[Peelee]

Obviously, if this is going to happen at all, it's going to be because the Oracle has foreseen that Belkar will not do what is necessary unless the Oracle first does what is necessary.

Thr gloating isn't necessary because Belkar wouldn't remember any of it. Same for the other, off-the-record prophecies.

[woweedd]

My bet on his demise is at the hands of the MitD. Not exactly intentionally though: My prediction is that

Xykon's old charm on the monster gets sprung in the final confrontation. Belkar, between his recent character development and a bit of possible foreshadowing in panel 6, (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1022.html) moves to save RC to keep the spell donation possible. He tries and fails to break through the charm while he's alive, but his death catalyzes MitD to be able to break through it anyway.

Much like when the messenger's death in the Battle for Azure City shocked Redcloak into a realization before, a similar event will play out and the spell gets donated because of this.

Belkar stays dead, not because he can't be raised, but either the tomb collapses and they can't get his remains to reanimate or because he edged into CN afterlife with his last act, and refuses to be raised and risk a change of station.

OK, while I get your point, I can't help but feel Belkar, who, for all his growing empathy, considers being Chaotic Evil a major part of his identity, would, if anything, be mildly offended by ending up in the CN afterlife. Heck, I kinda expect that to be the last we see of him: A panel of him sitting at the gates of Limbo grumping about how you're Chaotic Evil all your life, but then you do one heroic sacrifice to save the world and rasa-frasa....

[Tzardok]

Luckily, the Great Wheel offers afterlifes between the alignments for those who straddle lines. I assume that Belkar is gonna end up in Pandemonium, the CE/CN plane.

[Tubercular Ox]

Thr gloating isn't necessary because Belkar wouldn't remember any of it. Same for the other, off-the-record prophecies.

The gloating is a minor detail explained in any number of ways. The major detail is that cooking prophecies happens so often you'd think they had a ranged salmonella attack.

What really upsets me about writing stories on Rich's behalf is that I always lose. If I don't convince someone, I lose credibility. If I do convince someone, then Rich inevitably writes a different story based on the same principles, and now I feel like I've lied to people.

But here you go, because Charlie Brown always picks the football: Throw Tiamat in. She is the source of the Oracle's prophecies. Odin has fed his followers a twisty prophecy that may or may not serve to put Durkon in position, Tiamat can feed her followers a twisty prophecy that may or may not serve to put Belkar in position.

It's not necessary that the Oracle can see past the end and know if his prophecy is correct. I'm skeptical that Tiamat can see past the end, or else the arguments at the Godsmoot would have been different.

I still prefer the ending where Belkar dies, but it's weird to just listen when people say that this prophecy won't be cooked because they can't imagine the ending.

[Provengreil]

The gloating is a minor detail explained in any number of ways. The major detail is that cooking prophecies happens so often you'd think they had a ranged salmonella attack.

What really upsets me about writing stories on Rich's behalf is that I always lose. If I don't convince someone, I lose credibility. If I do convince someone, then Rich inevitably writes a different story based on the same principles, and now I feel like I've lied to people.

But here you go, because Charlie Brown always picks the football: Throw Tiamat in. She is the source of the Oracle's prophecies. Odin has fed his followers a twisty prophecy that may or may not serve to put Durkon in position, Tiamat can feed her followers a twisty prophecy that may or may not serve to put Belkar in position.

It's not necessary that the Oracle can see past the end and know if his prophecy is correct. I'm skeptical that Tiamat can see past the end, or else the arguments at the Godsmoot would have been different.

I still prefer the ending where Belkar dies, but it's weird to just listen when people say that this prophecy won't be cooked because they can't imagine the ending.

I think I'm gonna need you to define "cooked prophecy" for me, because any reply I think of to you seems off somehow, like we're working from different definitions.

That said, maybe don't take these predictions so personally? I think what I typed about B's death is a reasonable conclusion to several subplots that covers a range of ways it could play out. If it doesn't turn out that way, my response to being wrong is gonna be nothing more than "aw, that's too bad. Woulda been cool to be the guy who got it right tho."

[Tubercular Ox]

I think I'm gonna need you to define "cooked prophecy" for me, because any reply I think of to you seems off somehow, like we're working from different definitions.

In this case, cooking Belkar's prophecy means he lives in some weird state that fulfills the letter of the prophecy, or otherwise defying our expectations of it without it actually failing.

And I'm defending this as something possible, or at least, something we shouldn't scoff at people for believing. If we're guessing what will actually happen, I prefer your position.

[Peelee]

The gloating is a minor detail explained in any number of ways.

Except nobody has ever been able to explain it. Including you, just yesterday.

[Provengreil]

In this case, cooking Belkar's prophecy means he lives in some weird state that fulfills the letter of the prophecy, or otherwise defying our expectations of it without it actually failing.


Maybe they seal Belkar into a Stasis trap for some reason?

[Metastachydium]

Except nobody has ever been able to explain it. Including you, just yesterday.

Need I detail the Air Gnome Solution again? How does everyone keep forgetting about the Air Gnome Solution?!

[Ruck]

Except nobody has ever been able to explain it. Including you, just yesterday.

I'll add that I don't think we've gotten a single "cooked" prophecy, for whatever that means. The Oracle gives literal answers that are not necessarily useful, and he gives metaphorical answers that are useful (e.g. Haley), and occasionally gives exactly what the petitioner asks for. But people keep saying the Oracle lies or gives bad prophecies, and I just haven't actually seen a single example of that.

He also wasn't being asked to predict Belkar's death. He kept snarking that Belkar would die soon when the Order met him, and then he straight-up told Roy on the record that it would happen. As Peelee said, why would he even comment that Belkar would die soon if he was just lying?

[Metastachydium]

I'll add that I don't think we've gotten a single "cooked" prophecy, for whatever that means. The Oracle gives literal answers that are not necessarily useful, and he gives metaphorical answers that are useful (e.g. Haley), and occasionally gives exactly what the petitioner asks for. But people keep saying the Oracle lies or gives bad prophecies, and I just haven't actually seen a single example of that.

He also wasn't being asked to predict Belkar's death. He kept snarking that Belkar would die soon when the Order met him, and then he straight-up told Roy on the record that it would happen. As Peelee said, why would he even comment that Belkar would die soon if he was just lying?

Again, the Air Gnome Solution does not require that the Oracle be lying or wrong.

[Peelee]

I'll add that I don't think we've gotten a single "cooked" prophecy, for whatever that means. The Oracle gives literal answers that are not necessarily useful, and he gives metaphorical answers that are useful (e.g. Haley), and occasionally gives exactly what the petitioner asks for. But people keep saying the Oracle lies or gives bad prophecies, and I just haven't actually seen a single example of that.

He also wasn't being asked to predict Belkar's death. He kept snarking that Belkar would die soon when the Order met him, and then he straight-up told Roy on the record that it would happen. As Peelee said, why would he even comment that Belkar would die soon if he was just lying?

Technically i asked why he would be gloating about Belkar's fate when nobody except he would ever remember it. Same intention but nobody has ever proposed even a halfway-satisfactory answer.

I can't rmemeber if the Air Gnome Genasi addressed it or not.

[Metastachydium]

Technically i asked why he would be gloating about Belkar's fate when nobody except he would ever remember it. Same intention but nobody has ever proposed even a halfway-satisfactory answer.

Meh. Short-term confusion and suffering is a reward in itself for some.


I can't rmemeber if the Air Gnome Genasi addressed it or not.

I thought the question was "why is he gloating if it's not bad for Belkar", which the Air Gnome Solution addresses (it's bad for Belkar, just in a different way). But the above doesn't contradict the Air Gnome Solution either, because the Solution doesn't require the Oracle not to be an easily amused jerk.

[Peelee]

Meh. Short-term confusion and suffering is a reward in itself for some.

But there waa no suffering, even short-term. Only confusion, which wouldn't make any sense as a reward, he could cause confusion in any number of ways. The gloating was clearly self-satisfaction, which doesn't bode well for any explanation of something not-terrible happening to Belkar.

[Metastachydium]

But there waa no suffering, even short-term. Only confusion, which wouldn't make any sense as a reward, he could cause confusion in any number of ways. The gloating was clearly self-satisfaction, which doesn't bode well for any explanation of something not-terrible happening to Belkar.

Cool. Go to paragraph 2, then. The Air Gnome Solution is something terrible happening to Belkar.

[Provengreil]

Technically i asked why he would be gloating about Belkar's fate when nobody except he would ever remember it. Same intention but nobody has ever proposed even a halfway-satisfactory answer.

I can't rmemeber if the Air Gnome Genasi addressed it or not.

Do we...need a reason stronger than because it means Belkar died and the Oracle doesn't like Belkar? He's jsut taking personal glee in it and doesn't bother to hide it. I admit I may have lost the reason for that specific question.

[Peelee]

Cool. Go to paragraph 2, then. The Air Gnome Solution is something terrible happening to Belkar.

I'm aware. My statements cover people who propose non-terrible things happening to Belkar despite the prophecy.


Do we...need a reason stronger than because it means Belkar died and the Oracle doesn't like Belkar? He's jsut taking personal glee in it and doesn't bother to hide it. I admit I may have lost the reason for that specific question.

No, that's a great reason. Makes perfect sense. "Why is thr oracle gloating" is for anyone who suggests a way for Belkar to weasel out of thr prophecy without much repurcussion, since that would make the gloating nonsensical.

[Precure]

Belkar started changing well before that illusion, Roy just wasn't listening.

He was still bullying other prisoners and stealing their food just one week before. So, I don't think Roy has any reason to listen him.

[Tubercular Ox]

I'm reminded of Julia-is-Eugene again. People then argued that Eugene couldn't come back to the story because he didn't have a reason. Then other people argued it could be for character growth, like bonding with Roy or confronting Xykon. Then the first people argued this was too tacky to be true.

Then it was revealed that Julia was Eugene, and Rich was barely hiding it.

What happened to those stories? Is Rich going to use one with Eugene? Then consider that Rich is not above tacky stories, and deciding that a story is tacky doesn't mean it's not going to happen.

Or maybe Rich has a story that isn't tacky that he's going to use instead? Then consider that Rich is a better writer than the entire forum combined, and the forum thinking a story is tacky doesn't mean it's not going to happen.

Or maybe the story stopped being tacky once it was clear Rich might be interested in it? Then consider that the definition of tacky is subjective and prone to reversal, and a story being tacky now doesn't mean it's not going to happen.

There's three different explanations for the Oracle's gloating.

And here's a fourth: Blame Tiamat. She's the source of the Oracle's prophecies.

[KorvinStarmast]

And here's a fourth: Blame Tiamat. And then duck. She's got five breathweapons! :smalleek:

[gbaji]

I feel that Belkar being alive in the Riftworld violates the prophecy, unless he can never again breathe or have a birthday.

And yes, the Oracle can see into the Riftworld because he can read the future editions of the comic which would presumably show us the halfling avoiding his prophecy.

And Haley can steal a diamond from the cast page. I put that firmly in the "Author is making a joke (and pushing a selling point for the book, which... you know... he's trying to make money on by selling)" category, and not to be taken as a serious in-world fact.


Sure, but nobody who has ever espoused this possibility (or the possibilities of the Oracle simply lying) has ever been able to give a convincing reason why the Oracle would gloat about Belkar's fate if it's not death.

Which possibility precisely are you talking about?

Broadly speaking, the Oracle is a grumpy person who likes messing with people. I'm not sure more rationale is required as for why he'd do it as a character (assuming you mean "making Belkar's fate appear to be worse than it actually is"). From a storytelling pov, it's about getting the audience to spend a decade or so wondering what's going to happen to a beloved character. Which can be achieved by having the statements made by the Oracle be literally true, but not necessarily what the audience expected.

If the Oracle was actually gloating, why not refer to Belkar's suffering in whatever hell plane he winds up in as his after life? It's often as telling what someone doesn't say as what they do. Absent is any description of his dead decaying body (used as a recepticle for someone else's amusement or not), nor any description of his soul, or actually any description of what happens "after* he breathes his last, or is no longer in this world, or can no longer cash in his 401k, or eats his last birthday cake.

Which, to me, is telling.

[brian 333]

Tells me Belkar will cease to be. That his presence, both corporeal and incorporeal, equals 0. That he is neither pushing up, nor picking, daisies. That he lacks the capacity to fog either a mirror or film. That he will have no before or afterlife.

I do not doubt that The Oracle is being honest. I think that his prophecy for Belkar will prove to be exceedingly accurate.

[Tubercular Ox]

What if Tiamat's contribution to the final battle to make sure Belkar believes he's going to die? She spits out a bunch of ambiguous prophecies to her Oracle, knowing that those and Belkar's behavior will incense him to provide Belkar one free prophecy, without which Belkar has no way of knowing his fate.

Then, on the other end, Belkar sacrifices his life for the cause, and Tiamat's job is to make sure he is never resurrected, because that would violate all of her prophecies. So she has her agents immediately reincarnate him as an Air Gnome, preserving her prophecies while also denying anyone else the opportunity to resurrect him.

The gloating is necessary to achieve the free prophecy.

The free prophecy is necessary to achieve Tiamat's goals.

Cooking the prophecy is necessary to maintain Tiamat's reputation with her Oracle, despite taking him for a ride, as well as with all of her followers who go to the Oracle for advice.

[Metastachydium]

And then duck. She's got five breathweapons! :smalleek:

And they all work through the phone too!

[KorvinStarmast]

What if Tiamat's contribution to the final battle to make sure Belkar believes he's going to die? She spits out a bunch of ambiguous prophecies to her Oracle, knowing that those and Belkar's behavior will incense him to provide Belkar one free prophecy, without which Belkar has no way of knowing his fate.

Then, on the other end, Belkar sacrifices his life for the cause, and Tiamat's job is to make sure he is never resurrected, because that would violate all of her prophecies. So she has her agents immediately reincarnate him as an Air Gnome, preserving her prophecies while also denying anyone else the opportunity to resurrect him.

The gloating is necessary to achieve the free prophecy.

The free prophecy is necessary to achieve Tiamat's goals.

Cooking the prophecy is necessary to maintain Tiamat's reputation with her Oracle, despite taking him for a ride, as well as with all of her followers who go to the Oracle for advice.
Nale would approve of this plan.

[Peelee]

What if Tiamat's contribution to the final battle to make sure Belkar believes he's going to die?

Doesn't work. Even if the prophecy granting gods can see the future themselves (and going by Tiammat's surprise at Familicide, that seems unlikely), Belkar doesn't think he's going to die anytime soon. All the gloating was forgotten with everything else when they passed through the memory charm.

In the highly unlikely event that's Tiamat's plan, it fails right off the bat.

ETA: Tiamat also cannot turn Belkar into an air genasi due to restrictions against gods acting directly on the material plane. Also, what KorvinStarmast said about how convoluted that plan would be anyway (which, again, is a non-starter to begin with).

[Tubercular Ox]

ETA: Tiamat also cannot turn Belkar into an air genasi due to restrictions against gods acting directly on the material plane.

I'm going to focus on this one because we can at least agree that the Air Genasi is a silly idea in practice. I was using it as an icon for the idea that Belkar could end up living in a way that still fulfills the prophecy's requirements. Complaints specific to the Air Genasi idea do nothing to damage the broader idea that Belkar can live through prophecy manipulation, so I'm baffled how to respond when you spend time creating them.

Also, I said her agents do it, not her, so it's not even a valid complaint, which is how these endless chains get started. I'm constantly having to choose between addressing the real problem or correcting mistakes, and while the obvious answer is addressing the real problem, something is wrong with me and I feel compelled to correct mistakes. Is that where you are? We could commiserate.

[Peelee]

I was using it as an icon for the idea that Belkar could end up living in a way that still fulfills the prophecy's requirements.

Of course it's possible. I never acted like it wasn't, and am confuse as to why you're acting like i have.

My assertion is that nobody who has issued any such possibility has ever had a reason for the Oracle to lord Belkar's fate over him. You even completely abandoned that argument in your post. The Oracle doing itnto start with is like cursing at someone in a foreign language - it only gives benefit to the doer and means nothing to the other person. But if Belkar lives despite all that? It's like cursing at someone in a foreign language but not even using curse words and just using random words instead. It makes no sense.

[gbaji]

Tells me Belkar will cease to be. That his presence, both corporeal and incorporeal, equals 0. That he is neither pushing up, nor picking, daisies. That he lacks the capacity to fog either a mirror or film. That he will have no before or afterlife.

I do not doubt that The Oracle is being honest. I think that his prophecy for Belkar will prove to be exceedingly accurate.

Which leaves us with "eaten by the snarl and/or enters a rift and is never heard from again" as the only possibilities. So the whole "he dies and refuses resurrection" is presumably off the table?


My assertion is that nobody who has issued any such possibility has ever had a reason for the Oracle to lord Belkar's fate over him. You even completely abandoned that argument in your post. The Oracle doing itnto start with is like cursing at someone in a foreign language - it only gives benefit to the doer and means nothing to the other person. But if Belkar lives despite all that? It's like cursing at someone in a foreign language but not even using curse words and just using random words instead. It makes no sense.

The Oracle has never lorded it over Belkar though (well, he kinda did, but Belkar ignored him, and doesn't remember any of it anyway). He's mentioned it to Roy (who remembers exactly two things: "your pal isn't long for this world" and "Belkar will draw his last breath - ever - before the end of the year"). And, of course, to the audience. Which is where we go around looking trying to come up with ways that this might happen.

I just don't see where any of those explanations or predictions must somehow include a "why is the Oracle lording it over Belkar?" component to them. So the absense of such things are in no way a counter to said predictions/explanations at all IMO. The oracle is filling the role of narrative foreshadowing for the reader. All that's required is to find and present scenarios which fit all of the available literal statements made by the oracle. And there are a number of them.

Obviously, Belkar just straight up dying and not getting resurrected is the simpliest. But this story rarely does things in the most simple and straightforward way. And, as I mentioned above, it's somewhat suspicious that he never mentions anything specific about him actually dying (painfully or otherwise), nor any mention of his afterlife (again, painful or otherwise). You'd think that if the oracle really wanted to make Roy feel bad about Belkar dying (or whatever he's doing here), he'd provide explicit details about the horrible fate that Belkar will suffer or something. If that was actually what the oracle has seen.

Which leads us to ask "maybe the oracle hasn't seen those other things?", which leads to "what other things might the oracle see in the future which would match everything he's said, but isn't Belkar dying in a standard manner?". Which pretty much leaves us with "eaten by the snarl" or "passes through a rift".

We could also just assume that means he ceases to exist, and we're done.

But... we could also speculate that there's a world within the rift (which we know is true), and therefore also speculate the posibility that people (like Belkar) might be able to travel there and live there. From there, it's only a question of whether we believe that the oracle's future vision is capable of seeing into the space on the other side of the rifts or not. If he can, then we're done. Belkar must die or cease to exist. But if the oracle can't see that, then Belkar entering a rift and never returning also literally meets every single one of his prophesies. He could either live or die, and the oracle would not know this. He would only know that from his point of view, Belkar has ceased to exist at the moment he entered that rift. He's no longer "of this world", he has "drawn his last breath - ever", and he will never again have a future (that the oracle can see) in which he eats another birthday cake, nor is around to cash in a 401k . Every single prophesy is met if Belkar enters a rift and never returns, regardless of what actually happens to Belkar past that moment.


It's a stretch, and admittedly starts with the premise that I'm trying to see if there's any way for the prophesies to be true *and* Belkar somehow lives (so a fair amount of cart before the horse). But that does not mean that it's not a possibility. And no, I don't see how any aspect of what the oracle wants (with regard to lording it over someone or not), has any bearing on it.

[Peelee]

The Oracle has never lorded it over Belkar though (well, he kinda did, but Belkar ignored him, and doesn't remember any of it anyway)
Yes, which is why i said:
The Oracle doing it to start with is like cursing at someone in a foreign language - it only gives benefit to the doer and means nothing to the other person. But if Belkar lives despite all that? It's like cursing at someone in a foreign language but not even using curse words and just using random words instead. It makes no sense.

You can be content that it makes no sense. That's fine. I am not. And i have ever heard an argument that had this make sense. You've come the closest with "i don't need it to".

[Mic_128]

If the Oracle was actually gloating, why not refer to Belkar's suffering in whatever hell plane he winds up in as his after life?

Because he can't see in the afterlife? Tiamat doesn't want to give visions of the godly realms? Because if he told them, it might change what they do and he might not die?


People can change, just not within few days. :smallsmile:

Certainly V didn't change within a few days (hours? Minutes?) of a certain spell. Certainly Durkon didn't change after a few days of being in his own head. Certainly Roy hasn't changed on realising that Belkar was actually right about Durkon.

[brian 333]

Not, "Will have drawn his last breath in this world."

If he goes into the rift and survives then The Oracle will have issued a false prophecy. The prophecy is very specific. Belkar will not ever take a breath after the prophecy is fulfilled. Not being able to see into the world in the rift does not excuse the mistake. If the oracle does not know what becomes of Belkar, he would use less specific language.

If he lives in a form which does not allow him to eat, breathe, or cash in his 401k, (which both of the first two can be done in any afterlife, and the last he can do on the prime,) then he must become some form of mineral. (Can a mineral be said to be alive?)

That's it! The immutable Belkar Crystal, powering a warp drive near you in 2035! Use cheap, reliable, GREEN Belkar Crystals!

[Provengreil]

That's it! The immutable Belkar Crystal, powering a warp drive near you in 2035! Use cheap, reliable, GREEN Belkar Crystals!

OK, that was either incredibly clever or spectacularly random,

Since Uranium 235 is the nuclear fission version of the stuff.

Either way you earn a golf clap.

[Ruck]

You can be content that it makes no sense. That's fine. I am not. And i have ever heard an argument that had this make sense. You've come the closest with "i don't need it to".

Me neither. The (other?) closest I've heard is "The Oracle's prophecies are often twisty and misleading," which a)isn't really supported by the comic, and b)ignores that on Belkar's first visit, the Oracle wasn't giving a prophecy at all: He was just rubbing it in Belkar's face that he knows he'll die soon.

[Peelee]

Me neither. The (other?) closest I've heard is "The Oracle's prophecies are often twisty and misleading," which a)isn't really supported by the comic, and b)ignores that on Belkar's first visit, the Oracle wasn't giving a prophecy at all: He was just rubbing it in Belkar's face that he knows he'll die soon.

Maybe I'm being misunderstood, but the fact that Oracle was rubbing it in Belkar's face is what i want an explanation for, if his fate is not death. That's not really a rebuttal when it's the focal point I'm talking about.

[Ruck]

Maybe I'm being misunderstood, but the fact that Oracle was rubbing it in Belkar's face is what i want an explanation for, if his fate is not death. That's not really a rebuttal when it's the focal point I'm talking about.

It's not supposed to be a rebuttal. I said "Me neither" at the start because I also have not heard an argument that makes sense for why Belkar won't actually die.

[Peelee]

It's not supposed to be a rebuttal. I said "Me neither" at the start because I also have not heard an argument that makes sense for why Belkar won't actually die.

I know. I meant as a rebuttal to "The Oracle's prophecies are often twisty and misleading," which itself isn't any sort of explanation for why he's taking delight in commenting on Belkar's fate.

[Ruck]

I know. I meant as a rebuttal to "The Oracle's prophecies are often twisty and misleading," which itself isn't any sort of explanation for why he's taking delight in commenting on Belkar's fate.

Right, I guess I didn't cover that-- just the argument on why Belkar won't die-- but I mentioned in B)that the gloating wasn't even a prophecy to begin with. So I guess "Why is he gloating that Belkar will die if Belkar's not going to die?" is C).

(I guess the most reasonable answer to that question is "He hates Belkar and wants to make him mad," but then he gives the prophecy on the record to Roy, so that doesn't hold up either.)

[brian 333]

Maybe I'm being misunderstood, but the fact that Oracle was rubbing it in Belkar's face is what i want an explanation for, if his fate is not death. That's not really a rebuttal when it's the focal point I'm talking about.

Okay, Roy and Durkon dangle The Oracle from the window on their first visit. On their second they bring the guy who is going to murder The Oracle.

How much reason does The Oracle need to dislike The Order?

That they don't know why The Oracle's rude to them is beside the point. The point is, on the very next visit from Belkar, Belkar murders The Oracle for no reason but that he doesn't like The Oracle.

[Ruck]

Okay, Roy and Durkon dangle The Oracle from the window on their first visit. On their second they bring the guy who is going to murder The Oracle.

How much reason does The Oracle need to dislike The Order?

That they don't know why The Oracle's rude to them is beside the point. The point is, on the very next visit from Belkar, Belkar murders The Oracle for no reason but that he doesn't like The Oracle.

Yeah, it's well established the Oracle doesn't like the Order. But that still doesn't explain why he would rub Belkar's nose in his knowledge that he's going to die and then also tell Roy on the record, if Belkar is not going to die.

[brian 333]

Yeah, it's well established the Oracle doesn't like the Order. But that still doesn't explain why he would rub Belkar's nose in his knowledge that he's going to die and then also tell Roy on the record, if Belkar is not going to die.

You literally do not see any reason a murder victim might want to rub his nose in knowledge that his killer will himself die permanently?

Then there is something I have said before: The Oracle is perhaps guiding The Order onto a path that can lead to survival for the beings he loves. Maybe.

[Ruck]

You literally do not see any reason a murder victim might want to rub his nose in knowledge that his killer will himself die permanently?

You're leaving out the "if he's not actually going to die."

[WolvesbaneIII]

TLDR:

But I like the idea of new purple energy gods. if the dark one can recruit new gods into his pantheon or whatever, then they could probably do more, but the issue arises that they all starve to death after the world goes kablooey.

So I think theres a lot of cool ideas here, but Theres nothing to suggest the purple gods can survive even if some counter measures are done. the issue is time.

[Peelee]

Okay, Roy and Durkon dangle The Oracle from the window on their first visit. On their second they bring the guy who is going to murder The Oracle.

How much reason does The Oracle need to dislike The Order?

That they don't know why The Oracle's rude to them is beside the point. The point is, on the very next visit from Belkar, Belkar murders The Oracle for no reason but that he doesn't like The Oracle.

"the Oracle doesn't like the Order" is different from "the Oracle gloats over Belkar's fate". Hell, his dislike of the Order makes it even stranger for him to delight in Belkar's fate if it's not actually that bad.

[Liquor Box]

I don;t think it's the case, but there are any number of reasons why the Oracle might want to mess with Belkar. Knowing that Belkar will kill him later is the most obvious (which cost him at least 5000gp of diamonds and a level). NBut there's also the apparent racial enmity between halflings and kobolds.

From the story, I don't think it will be entirely subverted, but if it was I don't think we'd see the Oracle's motivations as being a story flaw.

[Kish]

You're leaving out the "if he's not actually going to die."
Yes, this. I literally do not see any reason a murder victim would rub...

...the nose of someone else who doesn't like his murderer either...

...in a lie claiming falsely that the murderer will die.

[Liquor Box]

Yes, this. I literally do not see any reason a murder victim would rub...

...the nose of someone else who doesn't like his murderer either...

...in a lie claiming falsely that the murderer will die.

Are you meaning the fact that he was addressing Roy, not Belkar?

If his intent was to mess with Belkar, then the fact that he was addressing Roy is irrelevant. Belkar is right there, and heard the words himself. It's no different to if the words were directed at him.

[Peelee]

I don;t think it's the case, but there are any number of reasons why the Oracle might want to mess with Belkar. Knowing that Belkar will kill him later is the most obvious (which cost him at least 5000gp of diamonds and a level). NBut there's also the apparent racial enmity between halflings and kobolds.

From the story, I don't think it will be entirely subverted, but if it was I don't think we'd see the Oracle's motivations as being a story flaw.


If his intent was to mess with Belkar, then the fact that he was addressing Roy is irrelevant. Belkar is right there, and heard the words himself. It's no different to if the words were directed at him.

Except it only confuses Belkar, and Belkar will forget it the second he leaves the valley. Again, it's like cussing someone out in a foreign language, it's only for the satisfaction of the person doing it, and of Belkar doesn't have a poor fate then it's not even using curse words. It gives the Oracle nothing.

[Kish]

Roy is the one who remembers the prophecy now. And that benefited Belkar, by causing Roy to respond "we run out the clock" when Haley asked what they would do if they couldn't keep Belkar under control.

[hroþila]

I do believe Belkar is going to die permanently, but let's try this:

The Oracle knows Belkar has an important role to play in saving the world, but he also knows Roy wants to get rid of Belkar. Therefore, he makes Roy believe that Belkar is going to die soon so that Roy thinks the problem will fix itself before long and thus that he can put off dealing with it. Belkar thus stays in the team long enough to become a valuable asset and save the world. So far so good.

The problem, of course, is that the Oracle doesn't only gloat about Belkar's death during Ghost Roy's visit. The Oracle also does it the first time, when he knows neither Roy nor Belkar will remember. If he had only done it the second time, you could argue he was putting on a show because he had looked into it and knew that Roy would bypass the charm and remember that part, but no, that doesn't work for the first scene. Unless it was like method acting or something extremely silly like that.

[Tubercular Ox]

Of course it's possible. I never acted like it wasn't, and am confuse as to why you're acting like i have.

I’m sorry, but sometimes your wording confuses me. For example, here:


You can be content that it makes no sense. That's fine. I am not. And i have ever heard an argument that had this make sense.

If you had said, “And I have never heard an argument that had this make sense for me,” I would have more quickly believed that you’re reserving judgement.

I also feel like you could contribute more of your opinion to the thread. It’s not an obligation, but when I have to guess where you’re going with a point, I’ve taken the first step to guessing wrong.

Contributing more would be better in general, too. The fact that you’re often on the receiving end of these story tributes shows that you are inspiring, and the fact that you so quickly reject them shows that you are insightful. It hurts me to see you ignoring larger patterns in favor of rejecting individual ideas when you should be at the forefront of new ideas.

[Peelee]

I’m sorry, but sometimes your wording confuses me.

At this point i dont believe i can help with that.

[Tubercular Ox]

At this point i dont believe i can help with that.

Yes, this is my complaint. You don't believe you can help so you try to end the conversation. It's fine when I'm directly addressing you like this, but you do the same thing even when people just want to brainstorm amongst themselves.

The goal should be to rescue the good parts of an idea, not dwell on the bad parts, because good ideas are precious and bad ideas are never surprising.

[Kish]

It's fine when I'm directly addressing you like this, but you do the same thing even when people just want to brainstorm amongst themselves.

The goal should be to rescue the good parts of an idea, not dwell on the bad parts, because good ideas are precious and bad ideas are never surprising.
I believe this is an inaccurate presentation of how most people here communicate.

[Provengreil]

Yes, this is my complaint. You don't believe you can help so you try to end the conversation. It's fine when I'm directly addressing you like this, but you do the same thing even when people just want to brainstorm amongst themselves.

The goal should be to rescue the good parts of an idea, not dwell on the bad parts, because good ideas are precious and bad ideas are never surprising.

Then what are the good parts of this idea? I admit it was fun to brain around for a bit on how the Oracle could be leading people to false conclusions with the whole Belkar dying thing, but in the end they all come with massive inconsistencies in the Oracle's behavior, which Pelee has been doggedly pointing out.

You have to note that the Oracle gives true answers even at significant personal cost to himself: he has a pair of casters ready to port in and res him when it happens. If he was willing to cook prophecies like this, I have to imagine that he'd phrase those such that he doesn't get torn apart every so often, or even just not be there like when Xykon came knocking.

[Tubercular Ox]

Then what are the good parts of this idea?

If by "good parts" you mean a solution, not sure. I still mostly agree with you that he's going to end up in an afterlife he doesn't want to leave.

For someone who is determined to make this idea work despite Peelee's observations, I think the directions to head in are: Maybe the Oracle's gloating isn't for the reason Peelee imagines, and maybe the Oracle isn't in on the joke and his gloating isn't indicative of what's going to happen.


You have to note that the Oracle gives true answers even at significant personal cost to himself

I notice that the Oracle walked the black dragon straight into a Familicide, so I suspect that having a true answer doesn't always mean knowing what's going to happen exactly, which is room for him to gloat over Belkar and have Belkar live, and an example of the Oracle not being in on the joke.


I believe this is an inaccurate presentation of how most people here communicate.

Maybe! And maybe we could work out what the right answer is together.

I see Peelee as the black box in the room. We chuck a golf ball at him and see which way it bounces. Then we chuck another golfball a few inches over and observe that one. Eventually we have enough information about his shape that we can start targeting golfballs at his complaints, but it's at the end of a draining, goodwill-destroying process and there's not much energy left to create something new.

Or Peelee could tell us his shape, and we can skip straight to the creating something new. Or if he doesn't know the shape because it's not actually his, he can tell us what he knows so far instead of playing a game of guess-and-check.

[brian 333]

You're leaving out the "if he's not actually going to die."


"the Oracle doesn't like the Order" is different from "the Oracle gloats over Belkar's fate". Hell, his dislike of the Order makes it even stranger for him to delight in Belkar's fate if it's not actually that bad.

Cause and effect is the issue, isn't it?

All the kobolds we meet dislike Belkar on sight, and Belkar kills them all. With several reasons to dislike the order:

Threatened with defenestration

Murdered and will murder more kobolds for fun

Will kill uncounted black dragons and their spawn

It would be surprising to me if The Oracle did not hate The Order generally and Belkar specifically because, to The Oracle, Belkar has already killed him! Roy already dangled him out of a window!

The problem with being able to accurately see the future is that you are stuck in that future, knowing it's coming, and unable to stop it. That alone is reason enough to be bitter.

[Provengreil]

Cause and effect is the issue, isn't it?

All the kobolds we meet dislike Belkar on sight, and Belkar kills them all. With several reasons to dislike the order:

Threatened with defenestration

Murdered and will murder more kobolds for fun

Will kill uncounted black dragons and their spawn

It would be surprising to me if The Oracle did not hate The Order generally and Belkar specifically because, to The Oracle, Belkar has already killed him! Roy already dangled him out of a window!

The problem with being able to accurately see the future is that you are stuck in that future, knowing it's coming, and unable to stop it. That alone is reason enough to be bitter.

Those are good reasons for him to dislike Belkar but not good reasons for him to lie about Belkar dying. If he was willing to lie in prophecies (heck, if he even can), then he could easily have the given the Black Dragon Mother a bad answer, which would prevent the Familicide situation from ever developing.

[Kish]

Maybe! And maybe we could work out what the right answer is together.

I see Peelee as the black box in the room. We chuck a golf ball at him and see which way it bounces. Then we chuck another golfball a few inches over and observe that one. Eventually we have enough information about his shape that we can start targeting golfballs at his complaints, but it's at the end of a draining, goodwill-destroying process and there's not much energy left to create something new.

Or Peelee could tell us his shape, and we can skip straight to the creating something new. Or if he doesn't know the shape because it's not actually his, he can tell us what he knows so far instead of playing a game of guess-and-check.
This seems to be a response to something that is not what I said.

I don't find Peelee confusing. I believe "you do the same thing even when people just want to brainstorm amongst themselves" incorrectly assumes that Peelee--and not you--is doing something that makes communication break down. And then in your next sentence you do it some more, by asserting that everyone here should (reason unstated) function in the brainstorming mode you apparently prefer, rather than doing actual analysis (analysis does include being willing to say things like, "this idea needs more support," and "this idea contradicts established parts of the story and thus should be discarded").

I think you would have an easier time understanding Peelee (et al) if you did not have the starting assumptions that everyone is trying to brainstorm and, regardless of evidence or lack thereof, saying someone else's proposed idea is wrong is rude.

[Tubercular Ox]

This seems to be a response to something that is not what I said.

I don't find Peelee confusing. I believe "you do the same thing even when people just want to brainstorm amongst themselves" incorrectly assumes that Peelee--and not you--is doing something that makes communication break down. And then in your next sentence you do it some more, by asserting that everyone here should (reason unstated) function in the brainstorming mode you apparently prefer, rather than doing actual analysis (analysis does include being willing to say things like, "this idea needs more support," and "this idea contradicts established parts of the story and thus should be discarded").

I think you would have an easier time understanding Peelee (et al) if you did not have the starting assumptions that everyone is trying to brainstorm and, regardless of evidence or lack thereof, saying someone else's proposed idea is wrong is rude.

This seems to be a response to something that is not what I said.

[Precure]

Certainly V didn't change within a few days (hours? Minutes?) of a certain spell. Certainly Durkon didn't change after a few days of being in his own head. Certainly Roy hasn't changed on realising that Belkar was actually right about Durkon.

Yeah, they didn't change within few days.


The problem, of course, is that the Oracle doesn't only gloat about Belkar's death during Ghost Roy's visit. The Oracle also does it the first time, when he knows neither Roy nor Belkar will remember. If he had only done it the second time, you could argue he was putting on a show because he had looked into it and knew that Roy would bypass the charm and remember that part, but no, that doesn't work for the first scene. Unless it was like method acting or something extremely silly like that.

Important to note: He didn't outright say that Belkar is going to die during their first visit, only imply it in a teasing manner that could be interpreted as trash talking.

[Ruck]

Cause and effect is the issue, isn't it?

All the kobolds we meet dislike Belkar on sight, and Belkar kills them all. With several reasons to dislike the order:

Threatened with defenestration

Murdered and will murder more kobolds for fun

Will kill uncounted black dragons and their spawn

It would be surprising to me if The Oracle did not hate The Order generally and Belkar specifically because, to The Oracle, Belkar has already killed him! Roy already dangled him out of a window!

The problem with being able to accurately see the future is that you are stuck in that future, knowing it's coming, and unable to stop it. That alone is reason enough to be bitter.

And you still haven't answered "why is he telling Roy that Belkar will die if Belkar is not going to die?"

[Liquor Box]

Except it only confuses Belkar, and Belkar will forget it the second he leaves the valley. Again, it's like cussing someone out in a foreign language, it's only for the satisfaction of the person doing it, and of Belkar doesn't have a poor fate then it's not even using curse words. It gives the Oracle nothing.

Do we know he forgets? Kish (see my quote below) suggests Roy remembers, and I don't why Roy would remember and Belkar not.

But even if Belkar didn't remember, it might usually still give a person a shock to hear they are going to die withing a year, even if only for the time before he forgot. One small way the Oracle can get at Belkar if were minded to do so.


Roy is the one who remembers the prophecy now. And that benefited Belkar, by causing Roy to respond "we run out the clock" when Haley asked what they would do if they couldn't keep Belkar under control.

If Roy remembers, then it's probable Belkar does too.

We don't know if it benefits Belkar or not. We don't know what they might have done with Belkar if not for the prophecy, or whether it would be better than what wil actually happen. We also don't know what other ways the prophecy might have impacted what happened.

If nothing else, if Belkar does remember, it would be a cloud hanging over him, even if it has not practical effect.

[hamishspence]

Do we know he forgets? Kish (see my quote below) suggests Roy remembers, and I don't why Roy would remember and Belkar not.


This is why Roy remembers lots of stuff from Sunken Valley and Belkar does not:

https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0572.html

Roy was a ghost when told Belkar was going to die before the end of the year, and then left Sunken Valley via a Dismissal spell rather than via walking through the memory-modification zone around the valley. That, and the prediction about Belkar's death was made directly to Roy - and "on the record" predictions are the one thing that visitors to the valley don't forget.

[Liquor Box]

This is why Roy remembers lots of stuff from Sunken Valley and Belkar does not:

https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0572.html

Roy was a ghost when told Belkar was going to die before the end of the year, and then left Sunken Valley via a Dismissal spell rather than via walking through the memory-modification zone around the valley. That, and the prediction about Belkar's death was made directly to Roy - and "on the record" predictions are the one thing that visitors to the valley don't forget.

AH I see, thanks. Then the impact would just be the emotional shock of hearing you are about today, in that short time they were there.

[Tubercular Ox]

Why do we have to believe the Oracle's personality is different depending on whether or not Belkar is going to die?

If Belkar is going to die, then the Oracle is an impulsive person who has to gloat even though he thinks none of the people he's gloating to are going to remember it.

If Belkar is not going to die, then the Oracle is a rational person who would never gloat because he knows none of the people he's gloating to are going to remember it.

[Provengreil]

Why do we have to believe the Oracle's personality is different depending on whether or not Belkar is going to die?

If Belkar is going to die, then the Oracle is an impulsive person who has to gloat even though he thinks none of the people he's gloating to are going to remember it.

If Belkar is not going to die, then the Oracle is a rational person who would never gloat because he knows none of the people he's gloating to are going to remember it.

It's the former, dude.

The oracle is an impulsive person who put a memory charm around his home because he spills true but un-asked for details.

you know, like he literally said he was. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0329.html)

[Peelee]

Do we know he forgets? Kish (see my quote below) suggests Roy remembers, and I don't why Roy would remember and Belkar not.

But even if Belkar didn't remember, it might usually still give a person a shock to hear they are going to die withing a year, even if only for the time before he forgot. One small way the Oracle can get at Belkar if were minded to do so.



If Roy remembers, then it's probable Belkar does too.

We don't know if it benefits Belkar or not. We don't know what they might have done with Belkar if not for the prophecy, or whether it would be better than what wil actually happen. We also don't know what other ways the prophecy might have impacted what happened.

If nothing else, if Belkar does remember, it would be a cloud hanging over him, even if it has not practical effect.
You seem unfamiliar with the story here, so yes. Belkar forgetting and Roy remembering are both things made explicitly clear. Also clear is the lack of any shock on Belkar's part when he hears it. We see him get steadily more annoyed with the Oracle, but that's about it.

Also, even if Belkar was shocked, that seems to be an incredibly poor payoff for an otherwise-pointless lie, especially one that was given on-the-record (meaning Roy will remember it) later.

[Tubercular Ox]

It's the former, dude.

The oracle is an impulsive person who put a memory charm around his home because he spills true but un-asked for details.

you know, like he literally said he was. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0329.html)

So why is there an argument out there that says Belkar must be dying because the Oracle is too rational to gloat unless he were dying?

If the Oracle can be impulsive enough to gloat when Belkar is dying, he can be impulsive enough to gloat when Belkar isn't dying, whether it's because he's not in on the joke, or he doesn't actually have a grip on the future beyond what he foretells to people, or the purpose of his gloating is still unknown to us.

[Peelee]

So why is there an argument out there that says Belkar must be dying because the Oracle is too rational to gloat unless he were dying?

"impulsive" does not mean "inherently irrational". Perhaps this will solve your dilemma.

[Ruck]

I believe this is an inaccurate presentation of how most people here communicate.


I don't find Peelee confusing. I believe "you do the same thing even when people just want to brainstorm amongst themselves" incorrectly assumes that Peelee--and not you--is doing something that makes communication break down. And then in your next sentence you do it some more, by asserting that everyone here should (reason unstated) function in the brainstorming mode you apparently prefer, rather than doing actual analysis (analysis does include being willing to say things like, "this idea needs more support," and "this idea contradicts established parts of the story and thus should be discarded").

I think you would have an easier time understanding Peelee (et al) if you did not have the starting assumptions that everyone is trying to brainstorm and, regardless of evidence or lack thereof, saying someone else's proposed idea is wrong is rude.

Yes to all this.

I'm not trying to pile on, and I really hope this helps, but Ox, this gets to some things I've been trying to tell you. You seem to approach the forums as though you have all these rules for communication in your head that no one else shares, and then you try to enforce them on people when they don't know what you're talking about (and that isn't your place to do, besides), and your rules and efforts to enforce them seem to hinder communication more than help it. Either that, or you keep trying to figure out hidden messages, meanings, and motivations in what people post, rather than just taking it at face value, which, again, hinders communication rather than helps it.

Like this:


I see Peelee as the black box in the room. We chuck a golf ball at him and see which way it bounces. Then we chuck another golfball a few inches over and observe that one. Eventually we have enough information about his shape that we can start targeting golfballs at his complaints, but it's at the end of a draining, goodwill-destroying process and there's not much energy left to create something new.

Or Peelee could tell us his shape, and we can skip straight to the creating something new. Or if he doesn't know the shape because it's not actually his, he can tell us what he knows so far instead of playing a game of guess-and-check.

I have no idea what this means. I see Peelee as a person (dragons are people too) who posts what's on his mind, his thoughts, opinions, and analysis.

You would have a much easier time if you just responded to the content of what people said, instead of trying to divine hidden meanings or motivations, or trying to insist people follow your own rules that nobody else shares and are under no obligation to follow besides.

[Tubercular Ox]

"impulsive" does not mean "inherently irrational". Perhaps this will solve your dilemma.

No, not really. I pick words to represent ideas in my head, not so they can be manipulated to change what I mean.

Admittedly, it is 100% my responsibility to convey what I mean in a way that can be understood, so you're right to correct me like this.

But now it's your turn. The Oracle is blank enough to gloat to a dying Belkar, but not so blank as to gloat to a Belkar living.

It feels like you're picking the level of blank to generate the outcome you want. Is there any evidence that that is the correct level of blank?

ETA: Thinking about Ruck's post.

[Provengreil]

So why is there an argument out there that says Belkar must be dying because the Oracle is too rational to gloat unless he were dying?

If the Oracle can be impulsive enough to gloat when Belkar is dying, he can be impulsive enough to gloat when Belkar isn't dying, whether it's because he's not in on the joke, or he doesn't actually have a grip on the future beyond what he foretells to people, or the purpose of his gloating is still unknown to us.

The closest thing I have to a response to any of this weirdness is that no one can reason you out of a position you didn't reason yourself into.

No one is joking about Belkar dying, literally everything the Oracle has said has either come true or still could, and he gloats because Belkar is gonna die and he's happy about it.

[Peelee]

No, not really.

Then i cannot help you with that. The Oacle is impulsive, he offhandeldy refers to future events. The Oracle is rational, he installed a memory charm around his valley and only let's people remember what he says in the trance. There is no "one negates the other" here except in your own mind, which again, i cannot help you with.

[Kish]

No, not really. I pick words to represent ideas in my head, not so they can be manipulated to change what I mean.

Admittedly, it is 100% my responsibility to convey what I mean in a way that can be understood, so you're right to correct me like this.

But now it's your turn. The Oracle is blank enough to gloat to a dying Belkar, but not so blank as to gloat to a Belkar living.

It feels like you're picking the level of blank to generate the outcome you want. Is there any evidence that that is the correct level of blank?
Why on earth are you assuming (and assuming universal agreement, yet) that there exists a trait that, in a small amount, causes someone to gloat about the death of someone he hates, but in a larger amount, causes him to babble random nonsense?

Impulsive doesn't fit, but neither does any other word. If you weren't assuming that the same trait leads to gloating about something that will and won't happen, and you had two unconnected blanks rather than two that demand the same word, it would be simple to fill in your Mad Lib: the first blank is something like "hostile" and the second is "insane."

[brian 333]

Those are good reasons for him to dislike Belkar but not good reasons for him to lie about Belkar dying. If he was willing to lie in prophecies (heck, if he even can), then he could easily have the given the Black Dragon Mother a bad answer, which would prevent the Familicide situation from ever developing.

I am actually on the side that is saying The Oracle gave an accurate and unavoidable prediction that Belkar will be dead and stay that way, so I can see why you accurately observed that I gave no good reason for The Oracle to lie.


And you still haven't answered "why is he telling Roy that Belkar will die if Belkar is not going to die?"

Because he hates Roy too? Dangle a guy from a window once and he might hold a grudge.

But, I have stated many times that The Oracle might be steering the ship on a course that keeps most of his friends and loved ones alive. I don't know that this is the case, but if so, yanking Roy's chain might be a part of a bigger plan of manipulation towards a goal The Oracle wants them to achieve. No evidence for this idea exists so far as that goes.

[Ruck]

Because he hates Roy too? Dangle a guy from a window once and he might hold a grudge.

"The Oracle is going to voluntarily give a wholly inaccurate prediction on the record when we have never seen him give an inaccurate prediction" is a really tough sell for me due to the entire lack of evidence he ever would or has ever done such a thing, no matter how much he dislikes the people in question.


But, I have stated many times that The Oracle might be steering the ship on a course that keeps most of his friends and loved ones alive. I don't know that this is the case, but if so, yanking Roy's chain might be a part of a bigger plan of manipulation towards a goal The Oracle wants them to achieve. No evidence for this idea exists so far as that goes.

This is a more reasonable thought, although I still don't think it will happen for a few reasons. The biggest one being that we've already seen it once, of sorts, with Odin's prophecy about Durkon.

Even there, though-- or in other famous examples, i.e. Oedipus Rex-- the prophecy is true and it's the mortals' attempts to avert it that make it come true, rather than it being entirely false and guiding people into another course of action.

[brian 333]

"The Oracle is going to voluntarily give a wholly inaccurate prediction on the record when we have never seen him give an inaccurate prediction" is a really tough sell for me due to the entire lack of evidence he ever would or has ever done such a thing, no matter how much he dislikes the people in question.



This is a more reasonable thought, although I still don't think it will happen for a few reasons. The biggest one being that we've already seen it once, of sorts, with Odin's prophecy about Durkon.

Even there, though-- or in other famous examples, i.e. Oedipus Rex-- the prophecy is true and it's the mortals' attempts to avert it that make it come true, rather than it being entirely false and guiding people into another course of action.

When did I ever say The Oracle gave a bad prediction? I have said all along that I think The Oracle has given valid and unavoidable predictions all along.

My postthat you quoted was in response to a claim that The Oracle had no reason to be a jerk to Roy. And yes, he did.

[Liquor Box]

Also, even if Belkar was shocked, that seems to be an incredibly poor payoff for an otherwise-pointless lie, especially one that was given on-the-record (meaning Roy will remember it) later.

Ah poor payoff for really no effort at all? No, I think that if his words had any effect at all, I think that's payoff enough.

[Ruck]

When did I ever say The Oracle gave a bad prediction? I have said all along that I think The Oracle has given valid and unavoidable predictions all along.

The original post you replied to that started this whole line of discussion was:


Maybe I'm being misunderstood, but the fact that Oracle was rubbing it in Belkar's face is what i want an explanation for, if his fate is not death. That's not really a rebuttal when it's the focal point I'm talking about.

And you answered with a lot of posts about reasons why the Oracle would not like the Order, but skipped over the "if his fate is not death" part, which is pretty key to the entire line of discussion.

We know the Oracle doesn't like the Order. Nobody can give a reason how that dislike would translate to "drop hints to Belkar that he's going to die soon and give Roy a prophecy about Belkar's death, when Belkar's death is not going to happen." That necessarily implies the Oracle is giving a fake prophecy.


My post that you quoted was in response to a claim that The Oracle had no reason to be a jerk to Roy. And yes, he did.

The section I quoted was in response to me:


And you still haven't answered "why is he telling Roy that Belkar will die if Belkar is not going to die?"


Because he hates Roy too? Dangle a guy from a window once and he might hold a grudge.

Do I need to put "IF BELKAR IS NOT GOING TO DIE" in 200-foot-tall flaming letters or something? Because it's really key to the point I'm making, and you keep glossing over it.

If you think the Oracle doesn't give false predictions, then we agree: Belkar will die, and that's that.

[Peelee]

Ah poor payoff for really no effort at all? No, I think that if his words had any effect at all, I think that's payoff enough.

I fail to see how gloating about his future, despite his future not actually being bad, would be worth "i got him to be slightly more annoyed than he already was". It's an exercise in futility.

It's only worth is self-satisfaction for the Oracle, because Belkar's future actually will be that bad. Your claims fall flat for me.

[Liquor Box]

I fail to see how gloating about his future, despite his future not actually being bad, would be worth "i got him to be slightly more annoyed than he already was". It's an exercise in futility.

It's only worth is self-satisfaction for the Oracle, because Belkar's future actually will be that bad. Your claims fall flat for me.

In my opinion, if someone is credibly told that they will die soon that would usually cause them some distress (whether that is ultimately true or not).

It seems you disagree. Not surprising, people will think of such things differently. So all that is required for the Oracle to have a motive, is for him to see it similarly to me, rather than similarly to you. Something which is at least plausible.


If you think the Oracle doesn't give false predictions, then we agree: Belkar will die, and that's that.

Worth pointing out that the Oracle can mislead without giving a false prediction. In a DnD setting, there are ways that the Oracle's comments about Belkar can be factually correct but misleading (intentionally) in how they would ordinarily be interpreted. I don't think that's likely to be the case, but it's not as implausible as some suggest.

[Peelee]

In my opinion, if someone is credibly told that they will die soon that would usually cause them some distress (whether that is ultimately true or not).

It seems you disagree.

I disagree that Belkar thinks he is being credible told he will die soon.

[Kish]

Expanding on that because Liquor Box previously indicated not actually remembering the exchanges under discussion.

The one person who heard and remembers Belkar's death prophecy from the Oracle is Roy. Since then, Roy told Haley that Belkar will be dead within a few weeks; whether he expanded on why he's certain of that offpanel is unclear. Roy also told (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0880.html) Belkar "I shouldn't wait for some prophecy. I should just finish you off myself before your stupid antics really DO get one of us killed!" while Belkar was barely able to stand. That is all Belkar has heard of the prophecy.

Talking about the effects on Belkar of his knowledge of the prophecy is nearly as disconnected as going from "he's gloating about Belkar's death" to "Belkar doesn't need to actually die, the Oracle's satisfaction from gloating about his death is enough of a reason for the Oracle to say he will." The Oracle is not gloating about something that won't happen and Belkar has no knowledge of the prophecy.

[brian 333]

The original post you replied to that started this whole line of discussion was:



And you answered with a lot of posts about reasons why the Oracle would not like the Order, but skipped over the "if his fate is not death" part, which is pretty key to the entire line of discussion.

We know the Oracle doesn't like the Order. Nobody can give a reason how that dislike would translate to "drop hints to Belkar that he's going to die soon and give Roy a prophecy about Belkar's death, when Belkar's death is not going to happen." That necessarily implies the Oracle is giving a fake prophecy.



The section I quoted was in response to me:





Do I need to put "IF BELKAR IS NOT GOING TO DIE" in 200-foot-tall flaming letters or something? Because it's really key to the point I'm making, and you keep glossing over it.

If you think the Oracle doesn't give false predictions, then we agree: Belkar will die, and that's that.

Apparently I quoted the wrong thing. I intended to post about why The Oracle was a jerk to Roy.

[Liquor Box]

Expanding on that because Liquor Box previously indicated not actually remembering the exchanges under discussion.

The one person who heard and remembers Belkar's death prophecy from the Oracle is Roy. Since then, Roy told Haley that Belkar will be dead within a few weeks; whether he expanded on why he's certain of that offpanel is unclear. Roy also told (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0880.html) Belkar "I shouldn't wait for some prophecy. I should just finish you off myself before your stupid antics really DO get one of us killed!" while Belkar was barely able to stand. That is all Belkar has heard of the prophecy.

Talking about the effects on Belkar of his knowledge of the prophecy is nearly as disconnected as going from "he's gloating about Belkar's death" to "Belkar doesn't need to actually die, the Oracle's satisfaction from gloating about his death is enough of a reason for the Oracle to say he will." The Oracle is not gloating about something that won't happen and Belkar has no knowledge of the prophecy.

I had forgotten Roy's return as a ghost, where he heard the prophecy again.

But Roy is not the only person who heard the prophecy - Belkar also did in 329. He may not remember it, but at that moment (and for however long he stayed around the tower), he did knew about it.

It may seem petty for the Oracle to have possibly tried to upset Belkar for a short period by implying he would die. But people do petty things like that all the time - they even say things which aren't true to score momentary conversational victories over those they don't like.

[Gurgeh]

Belkar did not hear any prophecy. He was present when the Oracle made a bunch of jibes that strongly implied he was going to die soon, but they weren't oracular statements.

Roy didn't hear the prophecy "again", there was no prophecy until 572 when the Oracle puts it "on the record".

[Peelee]

Belkar did not hear any prophecy. He was present when the Oracle made a bunch of jibes that strongly implied he was going to die soon, but they weren't oracular statements.

Roy didn't hear the prophecy "again", there was no prophecy until 572 when the Oracle puts it "on the record".

It was a prophecy, in the sense that it foretold the future. The Oracle explicitly says that's the reason for the memory charm, because he rambles prophecies offhand so easily. "on the record" doesn't mean it's a prophecy and the rest isnt, it means the listener will remember the words.

[Somniloquist]

Look, regardless of all the hairs we've been splitting, it doesn't seem like anybody in this thread actually denies that Belkar is going to die. So instead of advocating for a devil nobody believes in, I'll offer my prediction:

Belkar will die in a heroic sacrifice, but it won't be to save the entire world, or a near-stranger. It'll be to save Vaarsuvius.

[Metastachydium]

Look, regardless of all the hairs we've been splitting, it doesn't seem like anybody in this thread actually denies that Belkar is going to die.

(I'm not denying it, no, but my Air Gnome Solution is a technically plausible scenario where he doesn't and it's still kind of poetic justice.)

[Precure]

And you still haven't answered "why is he telling Roy that Belkar will die if Belkar is not going to die?"

This reminds me something I missed: "Why is he telling Roy that Belkar will die if Belkar is not going to die?" People say he hates Roy too, but why would that upset Roy? Is there something he know we don't yet to know?

[Kish]

The Oracle answered that one. He tends to let statements about the future fall out of his mouth. Just like when he said that Roy and Elan were running late for a couple of family reunions, or when he called Eugene Ghost Dad.

(Not that someone couldn't propose a more complicated explanation hinging on the Oracle wanting Roy not to kick Belkar out of the party. But that would not automatically avoid Belkar's death; rather, it would suggest that the Oracle sees Belkar dying while with the Order of the Stick. And it would already be a more complicated explanation than the simple, easily observable: true statements about the future do fall out of the Oracle's mouth.)

[Precure]

The Oracle answered that one. He tends to let statements about the future fall out of his mouth. Just like when he said that Roy and Elan were running late for a couple of family reunions, or when he called Eugene Ghost Dad.

Yeah, but he wanted Roy to remember it. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0572.html)

[Peelee]

Yeah, but he wanted Roy to remember it. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0572.html)

Reads to me like he waa annoyed at having to rehash it again and did that to put it to rest.

[Precure]

Reads to me like he waa annoyed at having to rehash it again and did that to put it to rest.

He can simply banish him if he's that annoyed.

[Peelee]

He can simply banish him if he's that annoyed.

He did when he got more annoyed.

[Precure]

He did when he got more annoyed.

Banishing would make more sense than giving freebies.

[Kish]

No, because spending a charge from the wand is an actual cost, whereas telling Roy "on the record" that Belkar will die costs the Oracle nothing.

However in any event. I think there is little to be gained from doing a deep dive on why someone who, by his own word, "tends to ramble" rambled one particular thing.

As I said, I could be wrong and he could be meaning to push Roy to keeping Belkar around, but that'd still lead to the same place we're going in any event: Belkar will remain a member of the Order of the Stick for the short rest of his life.

[Peelee]

Banishing would make more sense than giving freebies.

No it doesn't. Oracle made a comment about Belkar's future while talking to Roy. Roy was confused. Oracle gave a freebie so the confusion wouldn't happen again. How does banishing make more sense in this situation?

Oracle banished him once he refused to leave. Banishing makes more sense than giving freebies in this scenario. And hey, when that came up, that's exactly what happened.

[Precure]

I began to suspect that he intentionally banished Ghost Roy so he can remember anything.

[Provengreil]

He did when he got more annoyed.


Banishing would make more sense than giving freebies.

I actually think you're both right. The lizards who rezzed him didn't get a prophetic text version of the oracle's next death, the TPed out past the charm's boundaries.

I think the oracle green'd the prophecy of Belkar's death mostly to impose its weight on Roy, but at no time was he under the presumption that Roy wouldn't remember anyway.

[brian 333]

If The Oracle has an ulterior motive he might annoy Roy to promote that ulterior motive.

For example: he sees two possible futures.

Future 1: Belkar is abandoned/killed, altering the outcome to one that The Oracle does not like.
Future 2: Roy takes pains to keep Belkar around, intending to defy The Oracle's prediction, which ends up with the outcome The Oracle prefers.

Annoying Roy may end up being the thing that saves the world.

[Silly Name]

I mean, the Oracle hates Belkar (for good reasons), and isn't exactly fond of Roy either. Is it so weird that he kind of "gloated" about the horrible little halfling dying soon, and wanted to rub it in Roy's face?

Really, the Oracle doesn't need ulterior motives to tell other people that fate itself is going to ensure that the ******* who murdered him is going to get his just desserts.

[Peelee]

I mean, the Oracle hates Belkar (for good reasons), and isn't exactly fond of Roy either. Is it so weird that he kind of "gloated" about the horrible little halfling dying soon, and wanted to rub it in Roy's face?

Really, the Oracle doesn't need ulterior motives to tell other people that fate itself is going to ensure that the ******* who murdered him is going to get his just desserts.

Sure, nobody is disputing that. The post that kicked off this entire line was (bolding new) :

Sure, but nobody who has ever espoused this possibility (or the possibilities of the Oracle simply lying) has ever been able to give a convincing reason why the Oracle would gloat about Belkar's fate if it's not death.
I believe others also emphasized this portion.

[Metastachydium]

I believe others also emphasized this portion.

I still feel like that "nobody" there unfairly ignores my obvious brilliance.

[gbaji]

And you still haven't answered "why is he telling Roy that Belkar will die if Belkar is not going to die?"

He didn't actually tell Roy that Belkar was going to die. So the question is moot.


So why is there an argument out there that says Belkar must be dying because the Oracle is too rational to gloat unless he were dying?

If the Oracle can be impulsive enough to gloat when Belkar is dying, he can be impulsive enough to gloat when Belkar isn't dying, whether it's because he's not in on the joke, or he doesn't actually have a grip on the future beyond what he foretells to people, or the purpose of his gloating is still unknown to us.

The Oracle could also be gloating because he's saying things that are literally true, and knowing it will mislead the listener (Roy and the audience) into thinking something that isn't. The Oracle could literally be messing with Roy here. Or, as a couple people have pointed out, telling him this stuff because it's what makes Roy keep Belkar around long enough for Belkar to be important/useful to the whole "save the world" bit going on.

Could also be that the Oracle can't actually change his own future any more than he can anyone else. And this is what his "script" is.


Look, regardless of all the hairs we've been splitting, it doesn't seem like anybody in this thread actually denies that Belkar is going to die. So instead of advocating for a devil nobody believes in, I'll offer my prediction:

It's not about denial. That implies certainty. I gave up certainty when making predictions about this comic years ago.

However, if asked the question: "Is there a possible way for Belkar to live without violating any of the Oracles Prophesies?", I have to conclude that there is, in fact, one:


If we assume that the Oracle's future vision cannot extend into the rift to see the world beyond, then if Belkar enters said rift and never returns to any time or space where the Oracle can see, then Belkar will have complied with all four of the Oracles prophetic statements about Belkar's future. The Oracle has no clue what happened to Belkar after that point, only that he ceased to exist.

Belkar could certainly enter said rift, and be unmade, torn asunder, or suffer any of a number of horrific fates. But.... if it's possible to pass through said rift and survive and even continue living on the planet we conveniently have seen inside, then Belkar could live there *and* meet the Oracle's prophesies, since we've already established that whatever happens to Belkar after passing through the rift is outside the Oracle's vision. Dead/unmade/alive are all equal and identical as far as the Oracle is concerned. Belkar is no longer of this world, will never cash in a 401k, will never eat another birthday cake, and never draw another breath (anywhere/when that the Oracle can see).

I'm not saying that this *is* what will happen. I'm only saying that none of the Oracle's prophesies preclude it happening.

[Peelee]

If we assume that the Oracle's future vision cannot extend into the rift to see the world beyond

Then we would be ignoring that the Oracle explicitly told us he can read the future OotS books (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0330.html).

[Tubercular Ox]

Then we would be ignoring that the Oracle explicitly told us he can read the future OotS books (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0330.html).

With the assistance of Tiamat's visions. If the Oracle knows how this Snarl thing is going to turn out, just because Rich wrote it in a book, then Tiamat knows. The consequences of this are complicated, considering she's a direct player in the game of wooing The Dark One.

Maybe she would feed the Oracle different visions if she thought it would help bring out a particular result, meaning maybe the Oracle is not reading the book we think he's reading.

[brian 333]

I do not understand why posters keep attributing oracular powers to Tiamat when she was clearly unprepared for one fourth of all black dragons to die to a single spell.

A deity can grant an ability she herself does not have because of the Domain Agreement. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0954.html)

[Tubercular Ox]

I do not understand why posters keep attributing oracular powers to Tiamat when she was clearly unprepared for one fourth of all black dragons to die to a single spell.

A deity can grant an ability she herself does not have because of the Domain Agreement. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0954.html)

The Oracle has already said he's not a cleric (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0566.html), but even if he were you're just pushing the responsibility to a different god, which would force me to do research but probably not change my argument.

Let's use Tiamat as an example on the assumption that she's providing the prophecy outside the domain agreement. As you point out, she didn't seem prepared to find out about the Familicide. But if the Oracle didn't know about the Familicide either, then it's possible for the Oracle not to have perfect knowledge. If he did know about the Familicide, Tiamat knew, and chose to do nothing about it, implying her anger was at least partly feigned.

If she's omniscient, not stopping disasters as they happen, and feigning anger at fiends for her own purposes, she's clearly following a script she's created that she thinks will get her the best possible outcome. One wonders which of the other gods have the same omniscience and therefore are also following scripts that they think will get them the best possible outcome. If everyone in a scene has a script they're following, at some point we have to ask if the gods have lost free will. Maybe they've resigned themselves to their only role being to deliver lines at the appropriate point.

That is a dark place to go just to win an internet argument. And it doesn't even win, because if the gods are just following scripts to get the best possible outcome, then the Oracle can learn to follow a script for the best possible outcome, meaning the gloating could be scripted entirely for Roy's benefit, along with all ignorance being pretended.

Or, wackier answer, he knows there's an audience (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0572.html). If he's been able to read all the books in advance, since the prequel, he knows all his lines are foreordained, and he gloats not to benefit Roy, Haley, or Belkar, but us, the audience, because he knows his job is to create tension.

[Peelee]

You're massively overcomplicating this. The Oracle only knows the answers to whatever he decides to look at. He looks ahead to see when he'll die next, he tells his lizardfolk contractors. He looks ahead to see how V will gain ultimate total arcane power or whatever, he sees the deal V makes, he tells V "on the record" so it bypasses the memory charm. He looks ahead to see Roy will refuse to leave, he packs a wand to get him out.

He knows Belkar will kill him, looks ahead to see Belkar's fate, and goats about it. No need for perfect knowledge. No need for Tiamat to be omniscient, or to even be able to see the future herself. No problems, no issues, easy as can possibly be. Explains everything, no holes, no need for convoluted trains of thought on "we need to assume x, then y, then z, and compare and contrast".

[Ruck]

He didn't actually tell Roy that Belkar was going to die. So the question is moot.

If you want to argue "Belkar will draw his last breath-- ever-- before the end of the year," in conjunction with all the snarking he did about Belkar's short remaining life, doesn't mean that, feel free, but I've heard a lot of those arguments before, and I haven't been moved from the obvious deduction being obvious.


I do not understand why posters keep attributing oracular powers to Tiamat when she was clearly unprepared for one fourth of all black dragons to die to a single spell.

A deity can grant an ability she herself does not have because of the Domain Agreement. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0954.html)

I mean, I understand because "I get my powers from Tiamat" can easily be read to imply it, although you're right that, strictly speaking, it doesn't mean Tiamat has the power of foresight.


You're massively overcomplicating this. The Oracle only knows the answers to whatever he decides to look at. He looks ahead to see when he'll die next, he tells his lizardfolk contractors. He looks ahead to see how V will gain ultimate total arcane power or whatever, he sees the deal V makes, he tells V "on the record" so it bypasses the memory charm. He looks ahead to see Roy will refuse to leave, he packs a wand to get him out.

He knows Belkar will kill him, looks ahead to see Belkar's fate, and goats about it. No need for perfect knowledge. No need for Tiamat to be omniscient, or to even be able to see the future herself. No problems, no issues, easy as can possibly be. Explains everything, no holes, no need for convoluted trains of thought on "we need to assume x, then y, then z, and compare and contrast".

Yep.

[Tubercular Ox]

You're massively overcomplicating this. The Oracle only knows the answers to whatever he decides to look at.

Then there is no guarantee that he looks at the point in the story where Belkar defies his prophecies.


He knows Belkar will kill him, looks ahead to see Belkar's fate, and goats about it.

You are deciding for the Oracle which points in the future he is going to look at before feeling confident enough to gloat. If he is not omniscient, and you are not making all his decisions for him, then there is room for Rich, who is truly omniscient in this story, to decide that the Oracle screwed up somewhere, and therefore there's room for Belkar not to die.

Rich has set conditions for himself, but Metastachydium has already pointed out those conditions are not absolute. If Belkar is going to live, Rich has the advantage of knowing how Belkar is going to live, and he can let that knowledge inspire prophecies that he can then work into the story. It's much easier than reverse engineering it.

Bottom line: You can only guarantee you are correct when you are writing the story instead of Rich.

[Peelee]

Then there is no guarantee that he looks at the point in the story where Belkar defies his prophecies.



You are deciding for the Oracle which points in the future he is going to look at before feeling confident enough to gloat.

I'm not. I'm directly extrapolate from what we know in-comic. We know he looks ahead to see when he dies, he must do that to know what to tell his lizardfolk contractors. He also knows this to give Belkar his correct prophecy.

He also talks about Belkar's fate, and specifically says "last breath ever" (boding and italics mine), meaning he had looked ahead to Belkar's fate and knows what it will be, and feels confident enough to state permanency.

Again, this is all directly in the text. Nothing is dictated by me.

[gbaji]

Then we would be ignoring that the Oracle explicitly told us he can read the future OotS books (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0330.html).

Not "ignoring". I already responded to this exact point, earlier in this thread:


And Haley can steal a diamond from the cast page. I put that firmly in the "Author is making a joke (and pushing a selling point for the book, which... you know... he's trying to make money on by selling)" category, and not to be taken as a serious in-world fact.


If you want to argue "Belkar will draw his last breath-- ever-- before the end of the year," in conjunction with all the snarking he did about Belkar's short remaining life, doesn't mean that, feel free, but I've heard a lot of those arguments before, and I haven't been moved from the obvious deduction being obvious.

Here are the exact predictions (linked here (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0329.html) and here (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0572.html):

"... the halfling shouldn't bother funding his IRA." (forgotten)
"Well, I'm just thinking he should savor his next birthday cake." (forgotten)
"At any rate, your pal isn't long for this world, ..." (remembered by Roy)
"Belkar will draw his last breath -ever- before the end of the year." (made "official", so remembered by Roy as well)

He never once says that Belkar will die, or has a "short remaining life". Those are your words, not the Oracle's. I'm looking at literally what the Oracle actually said.

If the Oracle cannot see events that occur beyond the rift, and Belkar enters the rift and never returns, then whatever happens to Belkar after that point is irrelevant. From the Oracle's perspective, Belkar can not cash in his IRA, he can never eat a birthday cake, he is no longer in "this world", and he will never draw another breath. Literally, the moment Belkar passes from the Oracle's ability to see, he ceases to exist. All of the conditions in his prophesies are met at that point.

Is it possible (probable even) that Belkar is torn apart by entering a rift, or unmade by this? Sure. But the Oracle wont know the difference either way. That's the point.

I'm going with the whole "reading the comic" bit being a gag here, and assuming a sane cosmology where if the gods themselves can't know what's beyond the rifts (Odin and Thor have no clue what Durkon's talking about when he mentions the planet), then it seems unlikely that the Oracle can. It's not just another plane of existence here, it's most likely an entirely separate Prime Material Plane, entirely cut off from the rest of the cosmos. It's not connected to the elemental planes, or the astral plane, or the ethereal plane. Thus, it also has no connection to the outer planes (and thus, the powers of the gods) either.

And I also can't get past what the Oracle doesn't say. If he was really being snarky about Belkar's impending death, why doesn't he talk about it in more detail? Why no mention of what exactly happens to him? No gory details. No mention of X's on his eyes, or failed ressurections, or damnation in some hellish afterlife. Just a series of comments that effectively just say "he will no longer exist in this world". The only one of the four that is even remotely questionable is the one about him drawing his last breath. But even that one is phrased in an odd way. It doesn't say that Belkar will cease to be able to breath, or will stop breathing (indicating some injury/death event). It says he will "draw his last breath". That's an odd way of phrasing this. Breathing is an ability all living things have (ok, respirating if you want to be specific). But "drawing breath" is an action. "drawing your last breath" is a single specific action.

So... Belkar takes in a breath and then leaps into a rift. If that's the last thing the Oracle can see of the future of Belkar, then what did he just see? Belkar "drawing his last breath". And if this happens before the end of the year, then... prophesy fulfilled. Again, if the Oracle actually saw him "stop breathing" (and presumably never breath again), then that would mean something different (he would actually die that point). But that's not what the Oracle actually said.

I'll repeat: I can't say that this is what is going to happen with any certainty at all. My only point is that the Oracle's prophesies do not preclude this possiblity. Far too many people keep repeating what they think the Oracle said, and not literally what he actually said. When you step back and just look at his actual words, it's not as clear cut as that. Yeah. There is no future in which Belkar is alive and kicking and moving about anywhere on the Prime Material Plane (and no, not in any form either). But the planet on the other side of the rift? Possible. Depends on how the Oracle's prophesies work, and what he can actually see. We do not know definitively that the Oracale *can* see what happens beyond the rifts, so until we know this, we can't discount this possible outcome.

[Peelee]

Not "ignoring". I already responded to this exact point, earlier in this thread:
Except in both examples, it has actual, real-world (well, Stickworld) effects. The Oracle can, in fact, understand Haley, and Durkon can raise Roy with that diamond. So there's no reason to suspect that thr Oracle can't use an ability he already demonstrated that he is capable of using. And, on that point...

If the Oracle cannot see events that occur beyond the rift
Even assuming that this is true despite it being baseless conjecture, this would presumably necessitate the Oracle to continually monitor the rift, and all others, for as long as they exist. And the into the future as more rifts potentially appear, before they are spot-welded by the gods, or whatever ends up happening, through the end of time.

That seems a bit excessive.

Of course, that's only one possibility, but i can always fall back on "there's no evidence to support the theory that the Oracle can't see into the rifts, and there is evidence to support that the Oracle can read ahead in the books". :smalltongue:

[Kish]

Indeed. There's not a whole lot more reason to treat "the Oracle cannot see events that occur beyond the rift" as a thing than there is to treat "the Oracle cannot see events that occur in close proximity to a polymorphed allosaur" as a thing.

[OvisCaedo]

"He will draw his last breath ever" would also just be an outright lie of a prophecy if what it actually meant was "he goes through the rift to another world I know nothing about so I'm going to claim that means he stopped breathing, since I dunno, I guess he might have, I can't see in there."

[RatElemental]

Then we would be ignoring that the Oracle explicitly told us he can read the future OotS books (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0330.html).

What if Belkar falls into the rift and the comic never follows him in there and it's left up in the air what happened to him? That would negate this particular sticking point.

[Edreyn]

A few times I tried really hard to give example of how prophecy might shoot without Belkar really dying, because I also believe in this, since the word "death" was never said. But no one else believes so.

Poor Belkar, everyone hates him.

[Tzardok]

What if Belkar falls into the rift and the comic never follows him in there and it's left up in the air what happened to him? That would negate this particular sticking point.

That seems like it runs counter to the exercise. The whole point of rules-lawyering around the prophecy is after all to spare Belkar from death. But if he is removed in a final way from the story and from reality, with no way to discern what happened to him, isn't that essentially the same as him being dead? I don't think any of those who want to see Belkar saved would be happy with his fate being in limbo (not to be confused with Limbo :smalltongue:), while those who are willing to accept his death would go in that circumstance: "Yep, he's a goner."


A few times I tried really hard to give example of how prophecy might shoot without Belkar really dying, because I also believe in this, since the word "death" was never said. But no one else believes so.

Poor Belkar, everyone hates him.
It's not about hating Belkar. I enjoy him, even at his most evil. We are simply realistic. All prophecies the oracle spoke came true. Why should this one be different? Would I prefer for him to go to prison and cook for the Azurites? Sure I do. I just don't think it will happen.

[brian 333]

What if Belkar falls into the rift and the comic never follows him in there and it's left up in the air what happened to him? That would negate this particular sticking point.

The Oracle's prophecy would have reflected uncertainty about his fate if his fate was uncertain. Every part of the prophecy is absolute, even if you choose to read it in a way that leaves open the possibility of not being dead.

Going into the rift and surviving is not compatible with "He will draw his last breath ever." The phrase should have been something like, "He is never seen to draw breath again," or, "He never breathes the air of this world again."


A few times I tried really hard to give example of how prophecy might shoot without Belkar really dying, because I also believe in this, since the word "death" was never said. But no one else believes so.

Poor Belkar, everyone hates him.

I like Belkar as a character in a story. I would not want to go adventuring with him or even knock back a few brews after work. I want to see him complete his journey from what he was into what he is trying to become. I just cannot see how the prophecy leaves room for a live Bellar. Or an undead one. Or even a ghost.

[Errorname]

Yeah I don't have any doubt in my mind that Belkar is going to die. No weaseling out of it. Maybe if it was just the last breath ever statement you could weasel out of it, but the Oracle doesn't act like Belkar getting off on a technicality is in the cards.

[Provengreil]

I like Belkar as a character in a story. I would not want to go adventuring with him or even knock back a few brews after work. I want to see him complete his journey from what he was into what he is trying to become. I just cannot see how the prophecy leaves room for a live Bellar. Or an undead one. Or even a ghost.

The only twist I can see that keeps to the words of the oracle without killing him is forever trapping him in a stasis trap.

Seeing as that's still pretty much dead as far as the plot is concerned, it's the same basic outcome for no narrative benefit, while also cheapening any final actions he could take. So, no, I can't see it either.

[Tubercular Ox]

And I also can't get past what the Oracle doesn't say.

In my opinion this is the simple solution, it's fascinating that you have to write so much to explain it, and there's nowhere to go except overcomplicating it if people want to argue that the Oracle is more accurate than what his actual predictions support.

[KorvinStarmast]

If she's omniscient There is no reason to presume such. None of the gods in any of the three pantheons have displayed that characteristic.

Poor Belkar, everyone hates him. He brings some of that on himself. :smallwink:

[Synesthesy]

I just had a thought: if Belkar becomes some form of undead (or other thing like that), he will lose his sense of taste like Xykon, so he should savor his next birthday cake :O

However, I would add this to the conversation: if Belkar is gonna die (think that I don't believe, btw) he should get a proper formal birthday party with a cake and Elan singing Happy Birthday. Because if the Oracle talked about his birthday cake, it has to happen too. Doesn't it?

[Edreyn]

However, I would add this to the conversation: if Belkar is gonna die (think that I don't believe, btw) he should get a proper formal birthday party with a cake and Elan singing Happy Birthday. Because if the Oracle talked about his birthday cake, it has to happen too. Doesn't it?

Some long time ago I posted this joke "prophecy":



That's how it will be. The Order will make a surprise party to Belkar's birthday, which will be just one day before the end of the year. To make him really happy, they will prepare a unique present, buy for him one of a kind blade named "His Last Breath Ever". They won't bother checking what it is exactly, just wrap it as a present.

Belkar will enter the room, everyone will shout "Surprise!" then Roy will give him the present. Belkar will happily draw the "His Last Breath Ever" from it's scabbard... just to find out it's generic kitchen knife. He'll be angry, but before he actually says something, Haley will bring in the cake- a true masterpece made by greatest confectioner in stick-world. Since Belkar is already holding kitchen knife, he'll decide to cut the cake with it. As the "His Last Breath Ever" touches the cake, the cake will turn into a diamond! Belkar will try the knife on other food, and everything will turn to diamonds! But when Belkar touches food with another item, or with his hands, it will remain edible. Only the magic knife "His Last Breath Ever"turns things to diamonds. Belkar will be very happy, possessing such an item, he will never have to worry about saving money for old age! No need to worry about IRA, ever! Who cares that he won't savior his birthday cake. And also, no one will ever mock him that he isn't as long as other characters in same world.

[Ruck]

Not "ignoring". I already responded to this exact point, earlier in this thread:





Here are the exact predictions (linked here (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0329.html) and here (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0572.html):

"... the halfling shouldn't bother funding his IRA." (forgotten)
"Well, I'm just thinking he should savor his next birthday cake." (forgotten)
"At any rate, your pal isn't long for this world, ..." (remembered by Roy)
"Belkar will draw his last breath -ever- before the end of the year." (made "official", so remembered by Roy as well)

He never once says that Belkar will die, or has a "short remaining life". Those are your words, not the Oracle's. I'm looking at literally what the Oracle actually said.

And, again:


If you want to argue "Belkar will draw his last breath-- ever-- before the end of the year," in conjunction with all the snarking he did about Belkar's short remaining life, doesn't mean that, feel free, but I've heard a lot of those arguments before, and I haven't been moved from the obvious deduction being obvious.

I haven't heard a good reason why this would be the case other than "I can parse the words to mean something other than their obvious implication." I haven't heard a good reason why the Oracle would keep saying this when he meant something else. I haven't heard a good reason why it would be better for the story if Belkar actually lived and became something else rather than dying in a heroic sacrifice.

If your only argument is "the Oracle didn't say the literal words 'Belkar will die,'" I don't find it very convincing.


In my opinion this is the simple solution, it's fascinating that you have to write so much to explain it, and there's nowhere to go except overcomplicating it if people want to argue that the Oracle is more accurate than what his actual predictions support.

The "simple solution" is "the obvious implication of everything the Oracle says about Belkar actually means something else because he didn't use these exact specific words"?

Seems like the opposite of the "simple solution."

[RatElemental]

I like Belkar as a character in a story. I would not want to go adventuring with him or even knock back a few brews after work. I want to see him complete his journey from what he was into what he is trying to become. I just cannot see how the prophecy leaves room for a live Bellar. Or an undead one. Or even a ghost.

A ghost has no need for an IRA, cannot taste birthday cakes and can't even decide to breathe despite not needing to like corporeal undead can. The only sticking point on that one is "not long for this world" which is arguable whether being a ghost violates that.

My position on this whole thing is that Rich will do... something surprising with it, but I don't think it'll result in Belkar still kicking in any case, just playing devil's advocate.

[Somniloquist]

My best guess for a twist is not that Belkar won't die, but that all his teammates will genuinely mourn him. Which would have seemed impossible not long ago (in comic time, not real time).

[brian 333]

I'm reminded of a phrase I have not heard in a while:

It is a far, far better thing I do, than I have ever done: it is a far, far better rest I go to than I have ever known.

[Scifne]

I wonder if Belkar could make friends with the Snarl. It fits with the creature companions that like him. He could go off and adventure happily ever after with Mr Scruffy, the dinosaur, and the Snarl … not in this dimension.

(Belkar could also artistically draw breath as part of this. Showing the Snarl what living things do. But he only needs to draw it once! This is my less serious suggestion. I think that Belkar needs a big ending in order for his arc to be satisfying at this point.)

[KorvinStarmast]

I'm reminded of a phrase I have not heard in a while:

It is a far, far better thing I do, than I have ever done: it is a far, far better rest I go to than I have ever known. Context. (https://www.sparknotes.com/lit/a-tale-of-two-cities/quotes/page/5/)

Though much debate has arisen regarding the value and meaning of Sydney Carton’s sacrifice at the end of the novel, the surest key to interpretation rests in the thoughts contained in this passage, which the narrator attributes to Carton as he awaits his sacrificial death.

This passage, which occurs in the final chapter, prophesies two resurrections: one personal, the other national.

In a novel that seeks to examine the nature of revolution—the overturning of one way of life for another—the struggles of France and of Sydney Carton mirror each other. Here, Dickens articulates the outcome of those struggles: just as Paris will “ris[e] from [the] abyss” of the French Revolution’s chaotic and bloody violence, so too will Carton be reborn into glory after a virtually wasted life. In the prophecy that Paris will become “a beautiful city” and that Carton’s name will be “made illustrious,” the reader sees evidence of Dickens’s faith in the essential goodness of humankind. That ain't Belkar.

[Kish]

Remember, the Oracle says that the "last breath ever" line is "the same thing I said that last time."

So it's not enough to come up with four separate explanations, one for Not Long for the World, one for Shouldn't Bother Funding his IRA, one for Should Savor His Next Birthday Cake, and one for Will Draw His Last Breath Ever. Y'need to find a way all of them point to the same event. This is very easy if he dies, or gets stuck helplessly floating through the Astral Plane for eternity (if people there don't breathe).

[brian 333]

Context. (https://www.sparknotes.com/lit/a-tale-of-two-cities/quotes/page/5/)
That ain't Belkar.

A world rebuilt out of its imminent destruction which includes goblins and monsters as full citizens after centuries of oppression, and a character whose life has been a meaningless waste who willingly sacrifices himself to save his immediate friends and thereby give it meaning?

[Errorname]

I think the Belkar thing falls into the same category as Elan's prophecy, it's setting expectations. Belkar isn't going to make it, and the surprise is going to come from the circumstances (and probably how Roy feels about it) rather than him getting off on a technicality.

[KorvinStarmast]

A world rebuilt out of its imminent destruction which includes goblins and monsters as full citizens after centuries of oppression, and a character whose life has been a meaningless waste who willingly sacrifices himself to save his immediate friends and thereby give it meaning? In a word: nope.

[Precure]

A few times I tried really hard to give example of how prophecy might shoot without Belkar really dying, because I also believe in this, since the word "death" was never said. But no one else believes so.

Poor Belkar, everyone hates him.

Not really. I hate him but I think he'll live through this.

[gbaji]

Even assuming that this is true despite it being baseless conjecture, this would presumably necessitate the Oracle to continually monitor the rift, and all others, for as long as they exist. And the into the future as more rifts potentially appear, before they are spot-welded by the gods, or whatever ends up happening, through the end of time.

No. It would only require that the Oracle views the entire future of Belkar that he can see. This is an area that we literally don't know because we don't actually know how the Oracle's prophesies work. It's entirely possible that he does the equivalent of a google search on the subject he's looking at, and obtains information based on that. If something is not available in the search, he doesn't know about it. He's not monitoring the rifts, he's monitoring Belkar. And if his prophetic vision can't get any info from inside the rifts, and Belkar enters one and never exits, then as far as he's concerned, Belkar just ceased to exist at that point in time. He disappears, and never appears anywhere else. He never eats another birthday cake, never cashes in his 401k, is no longer in the world, and never draws another breath. The "timeline of Belkar" just stops at that point in time.



Of course, that's only one possibility, but i can always fall back on "there's no evidence to support the theory that the Oracle can't see into the rifts, and there is evidence to support that the Oracle can read ahead in the books". :smalltongue:

Except that the gods can't see into the rifts either. I take "Odin and Thor having no clue what Durkon meant when he talked about a planet in the rift" as a far more serious "real stickverse fact", than the Oracle reading future print releases of the OotS books.



"He will draw his last breath ever" would also just be an outright lie of a prophecy if what it actually meant was "he goes through the rift to another world I know nothing about so I'm going to claim that means he stopped breathing, since I dunno, I guess he might have, I can't see in there."

Except he doesn't actually say that Belkar "stopped breathing" either. If we assume that the Oracle can only deliver prophesies based on what he can actually see with his prophetic vision (reasonable, since otherwise he could not know if they were true), and we assume he can't see into the rifts, then he can't say anything about what happens to Belkar after he enters the rift, right? He can't say "Belkar dies", or "Belkar lives", or "Belkar continues to breathe" or "Belkar stops breathing". He can't say any of those things, because he can't see any of those things.

But he can say "Belkar will draw his last breath -ever", since he actually does see exactly that. In the entire timeline that the Oracle can see, there is a precise date at which Belkar will draw the last breath that the Oracle can see Belkar draw. That date occurs "before the end of the year". Thus, the exactly stated prophesy would be true in that case. And if you're still thinking that this requires the Oracle to make assumptions about what happens to Belkar in the rift, then flip it around. Ask this question: Does the Oracle ever see Belkar draw another breath after that point in time? If the answer is "no", then the prophesy is true.


That seems like it runs counter to the exercise. The whole point of rules-lawyering around the prophecy is after all to spare Belkar from death. But if he is removed in a final way from the story and from reality, with no way to discern what happened to him, isn't that essentially the same as him being dead? I don't think any of those who want to see Belkar saved would be happy with his fate being in limbo (not to be confused with Limbo :smalltongue:), while those who are willing to accept his death would go in that circumstance: "Yep, he's a goner."

It's not about what I "want" to happen. I think it's unfair to phrase it this way because it leans your statement towards dissmissing my argument as some kind of fan based wish/desire. I don't care either way. I'd be perfectly ok with Belkar dying an herioc death at the end of the comic series. It's just that this topic has come up many times, and each time I've read it (long before making an account and posting here), I always had the mental thought that "well, technically, he didn't actually say Belkar dies". And technically, if we're asking the question: "Is there a way for Belkar to continue living, while still meeting the literal statements made in the Oracle's prophesies", the answer is "yes". There is exactly one way for that to happen, and it requires Belkar to remain on the planet in the rift and never return (and yes, rests on the assumption that the Oracle can't deliver prophesies about anything on the other side of the rift as well).

This is not about what I "want", or even think will happen. It's about possibility. There is technically a possibility for this to happen. That's it.

And IMO, this is far far less torturous than the various ways the Oracle justified the prophesy he gave Belkar about causing the death of <list of people>. Yet, that was also a canonical "true" prophesy.


The "simple solution" is "the obvious implication of everything the Oracle says about Belkar actually means something else because he didn't use these exact specific words"?

No. The "simple solution" is that the words the Oracle said mean exactly what they say, and not anything more than that. The moment you move from "literal meaning" to "implication" (obvious or otherwise), you are no longer being "simple".

[Kish]

And IMO, this is far far less torturous than the various ways the Oracle justified the prophesy he gave Belkar about causing the death of <list of people>. Yet, that was also a canonical "true" prophesy.

No, the prophecy was that Belkar would kill one of the people on his list in the most direct way possible, by stabbing him with his daggers.

Also, the Oracle spent a strip trolling Belkar. And ended with explicitly saying he wasn't buying it himself.

Not a hook on which I would want to hang "the simplest explanation for half a dozen references to death is not death because he never used the word death," myself.

[Gurgeh]

No. The "simple solution" is that the words the Oracle said mean exactly what they say, and not anything more than that. The moment you move from "literal meaning" to "implication" (obvious or otherwise), you are no longer being "simple".
We must be working with a different "literal meaning" of the word "ever", in that case.



And IMO, this is far far less torturous than the various ways the Oracle justified the prophesy he gave Belkar about causing the death of <list of people>. Yet, that was also a canonical "true" prophesy.
To make it clear, let's re-read the comic where the Oracle gets killed (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0567.html).

It's clear to everyone present that the excuses and dissembling about Roy, Miko, and the rest are nonsense. They're not part of the prophecy, they're BS the Oracle is coming up with to try and weasel his way out of suffering the consequences of the prophecy! The Oracle admits it himself after he gets stabbed!

The answer to Belkar's question was 100% correct, and only misleading because Belkar had phrased it so poorly - and even then, Belkar eventually figured it out and made it come true. No lame excuses, no weird edge case technicalities, Belkar gets to cause the death of one of the people on his list.

[gbaji]

We must be working with a different "literal meaning" of the word "ever", in that case.

Um... "ever" meaning "ever in the entire timeline of the universe that my prophetic vision can see". What exactly do you think "ever" should mean here?

It's a matter of the point of view of the person making the prophesy (or perhaps point of view of whatever source of information the Oracle gets his prophesies from). I'll ask again (maybe slightly re-worded): If the Oracle cannot see into the rift, and Belkar enters the rift and never returns, then does the Oracle "ever" see Belkar draw another breath after the moment he sees Belkar enter the rift?

The answer, objectively, is "no". It's just a matter of perspective. Again, we don't know enough about how the Oracle's prophetic powers work to discount this.

Is this probable? No clue. Not the point. Is it "possible"? Yes. And that's the only question I'm addressing here.

[Gurgeh]

I don't think that's a reasonable interpretation of the Oracle's precognition, since it seems to be assuming that the oracle gets no context for anything that he ever sees. If he knows that Belkar's last breath on stickworld is going to be drawn before the end of the year - how does he know that? It's probably because he looked ahead and saw when it happened.

The Oracle isn't omniscient but he does clearly see a lot more than what's strictly needed to answer questions that come to him. He sasses Roy over his mother's promiscuity in the afterlife, he knows that Miko died when Soon's gate exploded (much more than the simple "no, Belkar did not cause her death" he'd have gotten if all of his answers were strict-need-to-know), and he does his best to get Roy to change his question to include Soon's gate when it becomes apparent that it's the answer Roy needs even if it isn't one his question would permit.

The whole point of the memory charm on Sunken Valley is to limit the consequences of him blabbing random stuff he's seen to his visitors because his precognition is more permissive than it needs to be for him to do his job.

Remember, the "on the record" prophecy isn't a "yes" answer to someone else's question, this is wording the Oracle is choosing to use. Yes, it is theoretically possible that he himself asked "when will Belkar Bitterleaf draw his last breath ever" and got an utterly contextless "before the end of the year", but I don't think that's a reasonable assumption when set against the constant signs that he sees wider context for a bunch of his other precognition (Miko's death, Roy's death, his own future death that'll need a resurrection, etc.)

If the future course of events does involve Belkar falling into the world in the rift and going off the grid (an untestable hypothesis since there's no evidence for it and at least mild evidence against it since Laurin proved that divinations from stickworld can work at least a little bit into the rift), then by far the most likely thing the Oracle would have gotten if he were looking into Belkar's "last breath" is knowledge that it was his last on stickworld because he fell into the rift.

So sure, this theory is "possible" in the same way it's possible that Redcloak's niece could pop up as the leader of an epic-levelled adventuring party who proceed to lay the smackdown on Xykon and persuade her uncle to give peace a chance. Nothing in the text has explicitly ruled it out and while I'd say that the Oracle's powers are clearly implied to work in ways that aren't compatible with him making a mistake here, it is possible that my take is wrong - but I wouldn't bet on it, and I'd give it far worse odds than the other low-percentage cheats like "oh belkar will be transformed into some sort of creature that doesn't need to breathe and live out his life as a hermit" scenarios.

[Ruck]

No. The "simple solution" is that the words the Oracle said mean exactly what they say, and not anything more than that. The moment you move from "literal meaning" to "implication" (obvious or otherwise), you are no longer being "simple".

The "simple solution" is something where "the halfling shouldn't bother funding his IRA," "he should savor his next birthday cake," and "the same thing I said last time you were here" is "Belkar will draw his last breath-- ever-- before the end of the year" means anything except "Belkar will die, and soon"? Okay then. You can believe that if you want. I find it implausible, and I'm not really convinced by "No." to change my mind.

(* - which presumably refers to those two previous comments, although I guess since the Oracle didn't exactly specify what he was referring to, could be referring to literally anything he said in the Order's last visit, right?)


Um... "ever" meaning "ever in the entire timeline of the universe that my prophetic vision can see". What exactly do you think "ever" should mean here?

Okay, so when we draw obvious implications from multiple connected statements it's wrong, but when you add your own conditions to the meaning of a single word based on an unsupported assumption, that's fine.

[Peelee]

Even assuming that this is true despite it being baseless conjecture, this would presumably necessitate the Oracle to continually monitor the rift, and all others, for as long as they exist. And the into the future as more rifts potentially appear, before they are spot-welded by the gods, or whatever ends up happening, through the end of time.

No. It would only require that the Oracle views the entire future of Belkar that he can see.
Yes. This is an accurate rephrasing of what I said.


Of course, that's only one possibility, but i can always fall back on "there's no evidence to support the theory that the Oracle can't see into the rifts, and there is evidence to support that the Oracle can read ahead in the books". :smalltongue:

Except that the gods can't see into the rifts either.
Yes, but i don't see what relevance random other characters have on the fact that there's no evidence to support the theory that the Oracle can't see into the rifts, and there is evidence to support that the Oracle can read ahead in the books.

If you want us to take what the Oracle said at its absolute literal face value, then sure. Belkar will draw his last breath ever. This does not mean "the Oracle does not know what happens to Belkar". This means "the Oracle knows for absolute certainty that Belkar ceases to breathe, forever." By your own argument, nobody knows what is in the rifts or is able to see in the rifts, so either the Oracle does not know/cannot see what is in the rift and Belkar mist not go into it, or the Oracle does know/can see what is in the rift and stills kicks it. Either way, your theory is wrong, by your own logic.


A few times I tried really hard to give example of how prophecy might shoot without Belkar really dying, because I also believe in this, since the word "death" was never said. But no one else believes so.

Poor Belkar, everyone hates him.
The problem isn't finding a way around the prophecy. The problem is finding a way around the prophecy that isn't predicated on it being a good story, but rather on the proponent's wanting Belkar to stay around because they want Belkar to stay around. For example, being turned into a vampire. Fits all the criteria perfectly fine. But the original soul is trapped with virtually no control at all instead of just being the same person only Evil, and wouldn't you know it, the theories that he will be a vampire dropped precipitously. When it would just be Belkar-but-with-vampire-powers, popular theory. When it would be a completely different character with Belkar reduced to a powerless husk, not so much.

[brian 333]

No. It would only require that the Oracle views the entire future of Belkar that he can see. This is an area that we literally don't know because we don't actually know how the Oracle's prophesies work. It's entirely possible that he does the equivalent of a google search on the subject he's looking at, and obtains information based on that. If something is not available in the search, he doesn't know about it. He's not monitoring the rifts, he's monitoring Belkar. And if his prophetic vision can't get any info from inside the rifts, and Belkar enters one and never exits, then as far as he's concerned, Belkar just ceased to exist at that point in time. He disappears, and never appears anywhere else. He never eats another birthday cake, never cashes in his 401k, is no longer in the world, and never draws another breath. The "timeline of Belkar" just stops at that point in time.




Except that the gods can't see into the rifts either. I take "Odin and Thor having no clue what Durkon meant when he talked about a planet in the rift" as a far more serious "real stickverse fact", than the Oracle reading future print releases of the OotS books.




Except he doesn't actually say that Belkar "stopped breathing" either. If we assume that the Oracle can only deliver prophesies based on what he can actually see with his prophetic vision (reasonable, since otherwise he could not know if they were true), and we assume he can't see into the rifts, then he can't say anything about what happens to Belkar after he enters the rift, right? He can't say "Belkar dies", or "Belkar lives", or "Belkar continues to breathe" or "Belkar stops breathing". He can't say any of those things, because he can't see any of those things.

But he can say "Belkar will draw his last breath -ever", since he actually does see exactly that. In the entire timeline that the Oracle can see, there is a precise date at which Belkar will draw the last breath that the Oracle can see Belkar draw. That date occurs "before the end of the year". Thus, the exactly stated prophesy would be true in that case. And if you're still thinking that this requires the Oracle to make assumptions about what happens to Belkar in the rift, then flip it around. Ask this question: Does the Oracle ever see Belkar draw another breath after that point in time? If the answer is "no", then the prophesy is true.



It's not about what I "want" to happen. I think it's unfair to phrase it this way because it leans your statement towards dissmissing my argument as some kind of fan based wish/desire. I don't care either way. I'd be perfectly ok with Belkar dying an herioc death at the end of the comic series. It's just that this topic has come up many times, and each time I've read it (long before making an account and posting here), I always had the mental thought that "well, technically, he didn't actually say Belkar dies". And technically, if we're asking the question: "Is there a way for Belkar to continue living, while still meeting the literal statements made in the Oracle's prophesies", the answer is "yes". There is exactly one way for that to happen, and it requires Belkar to remain on the planet in the rift and never return (and yes, rests on the assumption that the Oracle can't deliver prophesies about anything on the other side of the rift as well).

This is not about what I "want", or even think will happen. It's about possibility. There is technically a possibility for this to happen. That's it.

And IMO, this is far far less torturous than the various ways the Oracle justified the prophesy he gave Belkar about causing the death of <list of people>. Yet, that was also a canonical "true" prophesy.



No. The "simple solution" is that the words the Oracle said mean exactly what they say, and not anything more than that. The moment you move from "literal meaning" to "implication" (obvious or otherwise), you are no longer being "simple".


The assumption that The Oracle and the gods cannot see into the rift, always phrased as, 'if', is not supported. We know that two beings have intentionally looked into a rift, both mortal, one using ordinary vision and the other using psionic powers, and both could see into the rifts without any problems.

More likely is that the gods thought they knew everything there was to know about The Snarl, and rather than risk a confrontation with it, (such as Laurin experienced, perhaps,) they simply never looked.

With this in mind, I reject the argument that The Oracle cannot see into a rift. If Belkar was to vanish into a rift The Oracle would be able to see what became of him simply by looking.

I know some similarly reject the argument that The Oracle can simply read the as yet unpublished comic to learn Belkar's fate. However, this is canon, supported by other fourth-wall-breaking incidents.

So, while I respect anyone's personal opinion on the matter, I do tend to hold what is in the comic above any opinion, even mine.

[hroþila]

In my opinion, "the Oracle can't see into the rift, so he gratuitously assumes that Belkar ceases to exist on the other side" is pretty much "the Oracle is lying" with extra steps

[Tubercular Ox]

The problem isn't finding a way around the prophecy. The problem is finding a way around the prophecy that isn't predicated on it being a good story

But Rich showed he wasn't interested in writing a good story when he wrote Eugene back into the story after his plotline was done.

[Sir_Norbert]

...one person said Eugene coming back would be bad writing (and others argued against it, even at the time) and so it's okay to act like we all believe that?

Come on, you can construct an argument better than that.

[Peelee]

While the argument of "just because you (general 'you') can't think of a way to make it a good story doesn't mean it can't be" is a good one, that doesn't mean one can toss out whatever theories they want with no regard for storytelling and just say "the author can make it work". Because then one could make any number of outlandish theories with zero basis in anything and just hide behind that shield.

[Tubercular Ox]

...one person said Eugene coming back would be bad writing (and others argued against it, even at the time) and so it's okay to act like we all believe that?

Come on, you can construct an argument better than that.

One person making a fool of themselves should instill caution in all that see it.

Edit: Yes, I'm aware. The point stands.


While the argument of "just because you (general 'you') can't think of a way to make it a good story doesn't mean it can't be" is a good one, that doesn't mean one can toss out whatever theories they want with no regard for storytelling and just say "the author can make it work". Because then one could make any number of outlandish theories with zero basis in anything and just hide behind that shield.

You don't say.

[Peelee]

You don't say.
Indeed. It's almost as if this is a rephrasing of what i said earlier:
The problem isn't finding a way around the prophecy. The problem is finding a way around the prophecy that isn't predicated on it being a good story, but rather on the proponent's wanting Belkar to stay around because they want Belkar to stay around. For example, being turned into a vampire. Fits all the criteria perfectly fine. But the original soul is trapped with virtually no control at all instead of just being the same person only Evil, and wouldn't you know it, the theories that he will be a vampire dropped precipitously. When it would just be Belkar-but-with-vampire-powers, popular theory. When it would be a completely different character with Belkar reduced to a powerless husk, not so much.

[Tubercular Ox]

The problem isn't finding a way around the prophecy.

You say this, but you do nothing to support the people who are arguing this position, like gbaji. It's a mixed signal.


The problem is finding a way around the prophecy that isn't predicated on it being a good story

Is there any way to judge what you think a good story is except for people to bring you stories and ask you to judge them?

What are you doing to make sure your opinion of a good story is in line with Rich's?

[Precure]

Problem is: The oracle, the same literal guy that answered "where Xykon is" with "in his throne room" is continue to refuse saying "he's gonna die" in a direct manner. Why is this the case, if there is no plot twist?


But Rich showed he wasn't interested in writing a good story when he wrote Eugene back into the story after his plotline was done.

Only the people really hates Eugene thought that.

[Peelee]

Problem is: The oracle, the same literal guy that answered "where Xykon is" with "in his throne room" is continue to refuse saying "he's gonna die" in a direct manner.

That's not a problem. That's the Oracle being a jerk because that answer was not in any way helpful. Besides, in a world where death can be reversed (see Roy, or Eugene, or Durkon, or Eugene, or Durkon, or Eugene, or Eugene), "last breath ever" is more definitive than "die".

Also, sure, the author almsot certainly wanted to have a seed of doubt in the reader because he doesn't straight up say "he will die". And, as i said, there are ways for all the prophecies combined to still work (eg vampire). It's just, wouldn't you know it, it stops being such a popular theory (not gone entirely, just not popular) because the "i want Belkar to stick around" proponents don't get what they want.

That said, i doubt he will be vamped or any other theory I've heard to date. Maybe one will come along that is more convincing. That'd be pretty cool, really. But i haven't seen that one yet.

[gbaji]

I don't think that's a reasonable interpretation of the Oracle's precognition, since it seems to be assuming that the oracle gets no context for anything that he ever sees. If he knows that Belkar's last breath on stickworld is going to be drawn before the end of the year - how does he know that? It's probably because he looked ahead and saw when it happened.

I agree.


The Oracle isn't omniscient but he does clearly see a lot more than what's strictly needed to answer questions that come to him. He sasses Roy over his mother's promiscuity in the afterlife, he knows that Miko died when Soon's gate exploded (much more than the simple "no, Belkar did not cause her death" he'd have gotten if all of his answers were strict-need-to-know), and he does his best to get Roy to change his question to include Soon's gate when it becomes apparent that it's the answer Roy needs even if it isn't one his question would permit.

Yup. I'm assuming he can see the entirety of the stickworld, past, present, and future. All time/space within that world. And yes, his comments about Roy's mother suggest he can see into the outer planes as well.


Remember, the "on the record" prophecy isn't a "yes" answer to someone else's question, this is wording the Oracle is choosing to use. Yes, it is theoretically possible that he himself asked "when will Belkar Bitterleaf draw his last breath ever" and got an utterly contextless "before the end of the year", but I don't think that's a reasonable assumption when set against the constant signs that he sees wider context for a bunch of his other precognition (Miko's death, Roy's death, his own future death that'll need a resurrection, etc.)

If the future course of events does involve Belkar falling into the world in the rift and going off the grid (an untestable hypothesis since there's no evidence for it and at least mild evidence against it since Laurin proved that divinations from stickworld can work at least a little bit into the rift), then by far the most likely thing the Oracle would have gotten if he were looking into Belkar's "last breath" is knowledge that it was his last on stickworld because he fell into the rift.

Yeah. I don't think he asks the question and gets an answer. I think he can directly see these things somehow, and then forms the answers himself (with perhaps his own warped sense of humor attached). It does seem, however, that he actually can't lie about anything he sees with his vision. So given that he seems to just hang out in Sunken Valley and use his sight to see everything/where/when else, that's pretty much everything.

You just have to take one extra step and ask yourself how someone with that sort of power would interpret seeing someone enter a rift beyond with is "nothing" that can be seen by him. And then take an extra step and ask how he would report on such a thing. He can't lie (assumption, but reasonable given what we've seen), but must report what this appears to be, from his ability to see, in the context of this sort of prophetic power. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume he simply *can't* speculate on anything. He's a guy who literally knows everything, and must tell the truth about it. Would he even know how to assess what happened, and then speculate that "maybe he survived in this other space that I can't see, and doesn't seem to actually exist?". Or would he just literally report what he saw in his vision, and make zero extrapolation or speculation at all?

I think the later is the more likely. That this also allows him to word these events in ways that makes others make assumptions about what's going to happen, is just icing on the cake.



Okay, so when we draw obvious implications from multiple connected statements it's wrong, but when you add your own conditions to the meaning of a single word based on an unsupported assumption, that's fine.

I never once said that the obvious implication was "wrong". Not ever. Not once. Folks need to stop thinking in this very binary "All other possibilities must be denounced for mine to exist" mentality. I'm merely examining possibilties here. Multiple possible solutions can both be "possible". We need not declare one to be "wrong" for another to merely exist. And when I propose an alternative possible explanation, not only am I not declaring a different one "wrong", but I'm also not required to do so either.

It's certainly silly to argue against another proposed possible explanation by insisting that the person doing so is declaring some other possibility to be "wrong" in the process. That's just not correct at all.

Both are "fine". Both are "possible". I just find it odd how much some people bristle at this. I'm not freaking attacking other positions or possible explanations here. Just outlining an additional possiblity. No need to get defensive or take this personally.


In my opinion, "the Oracle can't see into the rift, so he gratuitously assumes that Belkar ceases to exist on the other side" is pretty much "the Oracle is lying" with extra steps

He assumes nothing at all. He simply can't see Belkar anymore. If we assume that he can only speak about things that he can actually see with his oracular vision, then how do you suppose he would talk about what happened? It may not even be that he assumes Belkar ceases to exist, but that he can't talk about or speculate about it. So he sticks to saying things that he "knows" and that are "true".


Problem is: The oracle, the same literal guy that answered "where Xykon is" with "in his throne room" is continue to refuse saying "he's gonna die" in a direct manner. Why is this the case, if there is no plot twist?

And that's also a bit of where I'm going with this. The Oracle has a habit of kinda trolling people with his answers. And when you look at the statements he's made about Belkar, they are remarkable in how circumspect they are. They never directly say anything, but allow the person hearing them to draw conclusions based on them. Pretty typical for an Oracle, I suppose. We also know that he seems to enjoy making people draw the wrong conclusions as well (well, Roy and the whole "which gate will Xykon be at next" bit aside, but even then he knew that Roy would do what Roy did anyway, so he's kind of a passive observer to the whole thing really).

It's also an interesting metapoint that the Oracle, as written, is more or less an author scripted element in the story. He knows everything that will happen, presumably even to himself (and knows to have folks teleport in an ressurect him when needed). He also seems unable to actually avoid or change anything either (else he maybe would). Things involving him happen the way they are supposed to happen. While I suppose we can say that all characters in a story exist to tell their part of the story, the Oracle is even moreso. Rich can use the Oracle to foreshadow things in ways that other characters could maybe not (guy can see the future, right?). He can use the Oracle to point readers at stuff that's going to be included in an upcoming print version of the comic, for example.

He can certainly also use the Oracle to get the audience wondering about what is going to happen to Belkar. Heck. Arguably, that is the entire point of having these prophesies about Belkar. None of the characters knew about the first two, since none can remember them. Roy knows the second two only. But the audience (that's us), knows them all. And we talk about them. And think about them. So, on some level, it's less about what the Oracle is doing or saying in the stickworld, and what Rich wants the audience to think and expect in the story.

And if there's one thing I've learned reading this strip, is that very very few things actually play out as predicted by the readers. Not in a "random stuff happens randomly" way. Everything does tend to make sense, when they play out. But it's usually not in the most obvious or straightforward way. So, if we do assume that there is a "twist" to Belkar's fate, we might consider alternatives to the very straightfoward "he's going to die". Now, maybe the twist is that he's going to die heroically, and earn a decent (maybe not "good") afterlife as a result. Great. I'd be happy with that. Maybe he sacrifices himself entirely and is unmade by the snarl. Also great. But there are other possiblities. And I tend to go back to author foreshadowing when I consider them.

We have seen a world within the rift. I suppose that could just be ignored in the story, but I somehow doubt it. I'd put quatloos down on that the Order will somehow travel to that world at some point in the story (or interact with someone/thing on it at least). If that happens, then what else happens involving this world? I also doubt that the resolution of this story will simply be "they prevent the last gate from being destroyed, and get Redcloak to help put more spackle on things to keep it going for longer". I suspect there will be a resolution to the snarl itself somehow. How exactly that goes down could be super variable, of course. But could involve Belkar, making a choice, but not one to merely "die", but perhaps stay on the other side of the rift for some reason, while the rest escape back to stickworld. Who knows?


Again. I'm just looking for alternative possible paths that could occur. I'm not saying that they will happen. Only that it's possible.


And yes. I get that some others have "seen into the rifts". But the Oracle isn't seeing with his eyes. He's seeing solely with his prophetic vision. I doubt very much that he can use that to see into a space that is entirely made up of reality different from that which makes up the Oracle. I mean, same raw materials, but different form. I'll also point out that while Laurin scanned into the rift, she didn't detect anything. She used clairvoiyance to "see" into the rift (which gave her nothining more than normal sight could see through it). She could not sense anything at all with her telepathy, not even any life in the water itself. She only detected something when the threads of the snarl came out of the rift itself (or whatever that was).

There is no evidence that any actual divinatory magic or abilities can actually pierce into the rift itself. It can only detect what can be literally seen from this side into the other already. So yeah. I don't think that the Oracle's vision can see events occuring there at all. I could absolutely be wrong here. But until we see the Oracle actually make a prophesy that detects events which occur on the other side of a rift, we cannot say for sure.

[Tubercular Ox]

He also seems unable to actually avoid or change anything either (else he maybe would).

Another common interpretation is that people like this are trying to change things, but they see cause and effect differently and so the actions they take to change things aren't always obvious.

[Kish]

Is there any way to judge what you think a good story is except for people to bring you stories and ask you to judge them?

What are you doing to make sure your opinion of a good story is in line with Rich's?
The bulk of the comic is up on the site already, available to read and reread.

And I think it may be giving Peelee too much credit to suggest he single-handedly invented the entire field of literary criticism.

[hroþila]

He assumes nothing at all. He simply can't see Belkar anymore. If we assume that he can only speak about things that he can actually see with his oracular vision, then how do you suppose he would talk about what happened? It may not even be that he assumes Belkar ceases to exist, but that he can't talk about or speculate about it. So he sticks to saying things that he "knows" and that are "true".

No, that doesn't work. If Belkar is alive and kicking on the other side of the rift, then he's still breathing. He might even be able to make himself some birthday cake for all we know. If the Oracle doesn't actually know that Belkar will draw his last breath ever, but he says he will only because he saw him disappear into the rift and he's outside the reach of his powers, then he's either assuming (i.e. speculating) or making it up.

[Peelee]

And I think it may be giving Peelee too much credit to suggest he single-handedly invented the entire field of literary criticism.

Imean, i am kinda smart.....

[Tubercular Ox]

No, that doesn't work. If Belkar is alive and kicking on the other side of the rift, then he's still breathing. He might even be able to make himself some birthday cake for all we know. If the Oracle doesn't actually know that Belkar will draw his last breath ever, but he says he will only because he saw him disappear into the rift and he's outside the reach of his powers, then he's either assuming (i.e. speculating) or making it up.

Maybe? Please don't take this analogy too literally, but if he effectively Google searched "Belkar's breaths", saw the last one, and not a second after that, he'd probably feel safe in assuming Belkar died there. If the search engine hasn't indexed anything that happens after that, search results will be misleading. Maybe Belkar's death is the first time the Oracle's ever tried to search on unindexed content, so he doesn't know to be suspicious.

It's really shaky trying to build on assumptions about how exactly the Oracle's powers work, but that's what people are doing when they assume the Oracle has enough knowledge to be more certain than what the wording of his predictions allows.

[woweedd]

Maybe? Please don't take this analogy too literally, but if he effectively Google searched "Belkar's breaths", saw the last one, and not a second after that, he'd probably feel safe in assuming Belkar died there. If the search engine hasn't indexed anything that happens after that, search results will be misleading. Maybe Belkar's death is the first time the Oracle's ever tried to search on unindexed content, so he doesn't know to be suspicious.

It's really shaky trying to build on assumptions about how exactly the Oracle's powers work, but that's what people are doing when they assume the Oracle has enough knowledge to be more certain than what the wording of his predictions allows.
Predictions, and that's the real problem. The on-the-record one is easy enough to rules lawyer, there are, after all, plenty of creatures that don't need to breath. But, combined with the other hints he's dropped, it's hard to come up with a solution that isn't Belkar dying. Maybe being a Vampire or Air Genasi, but that would still leave him...In the world, so you have to combine the two.

[Ruck]

I never once said that the obvious implication was "wrong". Not ever. Not once. Folks need to stop thinking in this very binary "All other possibilities must be denounced for mine to exist" mentality. I'm merely examining possibilties here. Multiple possible solutions can both be "possible". We need not declare one to be "wrong" for another to merely exist. And when I propose an alternative possible explanation, not only am I not declaring a different one "wrong", but I'm also not required to do so either.

It's certainly silly to argue against another proposed possible explanation by insisting that the person doing so is declaring some other possibility to be "wrong" in the process. That's just not correct at all.

Both are "fine". Both are "possible". I just find it odd how much some people bristle at this. I'm not freaking attacking other positions or possible explanations here. Just outlining an additional possiblity. No need to get defensive or take this personally.

OK. In that case, I don't believe all possibilities are equally likely. I find theories that Belkar will not die to be far-fetched; I find them mostly rooted in, from what I can tell and as Peelee said, people wanting Belkar to stick around and thus rationalizing from that end goal backwards. Which I don't think is a sound way to approach the evidence or come to a conclusion.

A great many things are theoretically possible. I'm more interested in what is more likely from a storytelling standpoint and what would be good for the story-- the latter usually being the former, as I of course think Rich is a good storyteller telling a good story, otherwise I wouldn't have spent so much time reading and re-reading it and posting about it.


The bulk of the comic is up on the site already, available to read and reread.

And I think it may be giving Peelee too much credit to suggest he single-handedly invented the entire field of literary criticism.

Heh, for me personally, I do write a lot of criticism (more about television storytelling though), but that said, see my above comment: I think my ideas of a good story are in line with Rich's because I think he's been telling a good story, one that is well-structured and dramatically effective while also being funny.


Maybe? Please don't take this analogy too literally, but if he effectively Google searched "Belkar's breaths", saw the last one, and not a second after that, he'd probably feel safe in assuming Belkar died there. If the search engine hasn't indexed anything that happens after that, search results will be misleading. Maybe Belkar's death is the first time the Oracle's ever tried to search on unindexed content, so he doesn't know to be suspicious.

You know what's funny? Early on in my time with OOTS when I was still catching up on the comic, I was looking for something on the OOTS Wiki and came across Belkar's page, which listed him as "was a Halfling ranger/barbarian..." And I was like "$*@#, did I just spoil Belkar's death for myself?"

This was after vampire!Durkon threw Belkar off the mountain. Of course, by the time I'd caught up, it turned out he wasn't dead at all.

[Errorname]

Again I want to emphasize that we already have one unfulfilled prophecy that exists to calibrate audience expectations for the finale; Elan's happy ending. I kind of think that's part of the function of the Belkar prophecy, establishing that he ain't making it long before it happens.

[Tubercular Ox]

Predictions, and that's the real problem. The on-the-record one is easy enough to rules lawyer, there are, after all, plenty of creatures that don't need to breath. But, combined with the other hints he's dropped, it's hard to come up with a solution that isn't Belkar dying. Maybe being a Vampire or Air Genasi, but that would still leave him...In the world, so you have to combine the two.

Thankfully, Rich doesn't have to come up with a solution at all. He didn't invent four prophecies he wanted to tell and sit down to work out a way they could all be subverted, he had a great idea for a twist ending to Belkar's story and then used that idea to generate prophecies whose blind spot exactly matched what he needed for the story. If there's even one tiny hole Rich can slip through, then it's a legitimate possibility that the prophecies are engineered to make sure that hole is tiny, to enhance the, "Ta-da!" later.

That doesn't mean Belkar is going to live, but it does make it weird to think that Belkar must die because the chance of anything else is tiny.

This extends to other decisions that Rich is making. It's far more likely that the Oracle is a chatty Cathy because Rich wanted more casually prophetic humor in the story than it is the Oracle was born that way and Rich is just making do.

And it's far more likely that the Oracle is gloating because Rich needed it to sell the story he wanted to tell than it is that Rich noticed he accidentally characterized the Oracle as a gloater and felt compelled to continue that characterization.

[Peelee]

Thankfully, Rich doesn't have to come up with a solution at all. He didn't invent four prophecies he wanted to tell and sit down to work out a way they could all be subverted, he had a great idea for a twist ending to Belkar's story and then used that idea to generate prophecies whose blind spot exactly matched what he needed for the story. If there's even one tiny hole Rich can slip through, then it's a legitimate possibility that the prophecies are engineered to make sure that hole is tiny, to enhance the, "Ta-da!" later.

That doesn't mean Belkar is going to live, but it does make it weird to think that Belkar must die because the chance of anything else is tiny.

This extends to other decisions that Rich is making. It's far more likely that the Oracle is a chatty Cathy because Rich wanted more casually prophetic humor in the story than it is the Oracle was born that way and Rich is just making do.

And it's far more likely that the Oracle is gloating because Rich needed it to sell the story he wanted to tell than it is that Rich noticed he accidentally characterized the Oracle as a gloater and felt compelled to continue that characterization.
Yes, Doylistic reasoning is indeed that the author decided to write it that way. However, with the gloating, I'm not talking about Doylistic reasoning. I'm talking Watsonian reasoning. In the world of OotS, why is the Oracle gloating about Belkar's fate if it's going to not actually be that bad for him? "Because the author wanted to sell the story he wanted to tell" is not an answer to that.

[KorvinStarmast]

But Rich showed he wasn't interested in writing a good story when he wrote Eugene back into the story after his plotline was done. The problem is that Eugene's blood oath to kill/slay/get-rid-of Xykon is not yet resolved. Roy's choice to go on with that despite his frustration with his dad doubles down on that. Result? Eugene's plotline is still hanging around, awaiting its conclusion.
Roy Greenhilt .... so-named for his Grandfather's sword ... isthis tale's major protagonist.
It's a family affair.
Eugene is family, and, his blood oath ties his family to this Xykon issue (and Roy is loath to dump all of that on his little sister).

Only the people really hates Eugene thought that. While I won't follow that thread, Rich has successfully written and cast Eugene as an annoying character (much as he did with Miko), which induces me to suggest that Rich is doing good writing as regards Eugene in terms of getting the desired reaction to this character. :smallsmile:

[Tubercular Ox]

Yes, Doylistic reasoning is indeed that the author decided to write it that way. However, with the gloating, I'm not talking about Doylistic reasoning. I'm talking Watsonian reasoning. In the world of OotS, why is the Oracle gloating about Belkar's fate if it's going to not actually be that bad for him? "Because the author wanted to sell the story he wanted to tell" is not an answer to that.

If that is your impersonation of someone thinking Doylistically, then I can understand your frustration when people bring it up. However, use that massive character-identifying noggin and ask yourself when I have ever supported leaving a problem alone.

[Peelee]

If that is your impersonation of someone thinking Doylistically, then I can understand your frustration when people bring it up. However, use that massive character-identifying noggin and ask yourself when I have ever supported leaving a problem alone.

First off, i am never frustrated when people bring up Doylistic arguments. I said that a Doylistic argument does not satisfy a Watsonian question. Second, i am not "impersonating" a Doylistic argument; you said the character acted this way because the author wanted him to for authorial reason. This is the definition of Doylistic reasoning.

I have great difficulty following your logical reasoning (eg you describing a textbook example of Doylistic reasoning as me impersonating it, and poorly at that) and for this reason i do not think it is beneficial for me to engage in protracted debates with you.

[Mic_128]

Maybe? Please don't take this analogy too literally, but if he effectively Google searched "Belkar's breaths", saw the last one, and not a second after that, he'd probably feel safe in assuming Belkar died there.

Or, taking him completely literally, he can look forward into the future to the point where this particular story is compiled into a book. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0330.html)There's no reason he can't also just look ahead and confirm that yep, he dies.

This is, after all, a self-aware parody (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1140.html), and I don't believe Rich has said anything that counters that.

[Tubercular Ox]

Second, i am not "impersonating" a Doylistic argument; you said the character acted this way because the author wanted him to for authorial reason. This is the definition of Doylistic reasoning.

Then I am not thinking Doylistically and my mistake was letting you label me such without a fight. My argument is nothing like what you present. My argument is that it is relatively easy to manufacture arbitrarily astounding coincidences when you can rewrite the entire story in order to make those coincidences more astounding, and therefore a coincidence being astounding doesn't automatically make it unlikely.


Or, taking him completely literally, he can look forward into the future to the point where this particular story is compiled into a book. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0330.html)There's no reason he can't also just look ahead and confirm that yep, he dies.


This assumes that he's actually reading it like a book and not stuck with an interface that requires him to ask questions, and then provides specific answers to those questions (i.e. a search engine, not a book).

So assume there is unindexed content, like gbaji suggests, and that the Oracle is not aware of it. And assume it's a search engine interface.

He can search on "Belkar's death" and get "No results found."

Then he searches on "Belkar's Story" and gets every panel (of indexed content) in which Belkar exists. He sorts these panels chronologically, then finds that the last panel is him being sucked into the Snarl.

Since he doesn't know unindexed content exists, he assumes Belkar does not exist after this.

So he gets a little paranoid and searches on "Eaten by the snarl," getting the panel where the gods explain that souls eaten by the snarl are gone forever.

"Ah ha," he thinks, "This is why searching on his death generates no results."

So he's not allowed to predict that Belkar died, because there are no results for that search, but he can predict all the other things just fine.

But the gods don't know everything, and seeing that panel of the comic leaves no hint that he should maybe search on, "Foreshadowing that the Snarl is not what it seems," so there's room for him to be wrong.

This kind of search engine interface is implied by how the Oracle listens to people ask questions then provides answers based on whatever visions he has. It explains why he ushered the black dragon straight into a familicide: He didn't know, because there are limits to his knowledge.

But we shouldn't base any conclusions on a belief that we know how the Oracle's powers must work. Contrariwise, we should entertain any idea that rests on a way the Oracle's powers can work that isn't contradicted in the story.

[Peelee]

Then I am not thinking Doylistically


It's far more likely that the Oracle is a chatty Cathy because Rich wanted more casually prophetic humor in the story than it is the Oracle was born that way and Rich is just making do.

And it's far more likely that the Oracle is gloating because Rich needed it to sell the story he wanted to tell than it is that Rich noticed he accidentally characterized the Oracle as a gloater and felt compelled to continue that characterization.

Adjective. Doylist (comparative more Doylist, superlative most Doylist) (fandom slang, narratology) From a real-world perspective; of or relating to an explanation outside the text; external to the narrative.
As i said earlier, and demonstrated above, you exhibited a textbook example of a Doylistic argument. This is objective fact. If you would like to not argue from a Doylistic perspective, then I would recommend not stating that the reason a character did an action is because of the narrative reason the author wanted that to be so. Because that is, by definition, Doylistic.


This assumes that he's actually reading it like a book and not stuck with an interface that requires him to ask questions, and then provides specific answers to those questions (i.e. a search engine, not a book).

Yes, this does indeed assume exactly what the Oracle said.

[Tubercular Ox]

As i said earlier, and demonstrated above, you exhibited a textbook example of a Doylistic argument. This is objective fact. If you would like to not argue from a Doylistic perspective, then I would recommend not stating that the reason a character did an action is because of the narrative reason the author wanted that to be so. Because that is, by definition, Doylistic.

If agreeing with you won't make you read what I say, and fighting you on it won't make you read what I say, what do I do to make you read what I say? Because, for the third time, this ain't it.

Maybe the reason you can't understand me is because you read, like, a third of what I say and give up.


Yes, this does indeed assume exactly what the Oracle said.

Case in point.

[KorvinStarmast]

I'd need to check the strip, but didn't the Oracle point out that he can read the books (including future books/strips not yet written) or was that in a bonus strip in DStP?

That would be 4th-wall-breaking, which Rich uses here and there, and internally "Doylistic" which is more or less meta humor.

[Peelee]

I'd need to check the strip, but didn't the Oracle point out that he can read the books (including future books/strips not yet written) or was that in a bonus strip in DStP?

That would be 4th-wall-breaking, which Rich uses here and there, and internally "Doylistic" which is more or less meta humor.
Yes, this is in the main
Or, taking him completely literally, he can look forward into the future to the point where this particular story is compiled into a book. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0330.html)There's no reason he can't also just look ahead and confirm that yep, he dies.
As you point out, this is canonical evidence that the Oracle knows Belkar's ultimate fate.

[KorvinStarmast]

I wandered off to look that up, and found panel 4 of https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0330.html as the ref I was looking for, and panel 5 of https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0566.html as somewhat related fourth wall breaking.

The bickering over that point, though, I'll leave to the rest of you since I've nothing to add.

[Peelee]

I wandered off to look that up, and found panel 4 of https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0330.html as the ref I was looking for, and panel 5 of https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0566.html as somewhat related fourth wall breaking.

For 4th wall breaking, i bet you were thinking of panel 6 (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0572.html).

[Tubercular Ox]

Yes, this is in the main
As you point out, this is canonical evidence that the Oracle knows Belkar's ultimate fate.

If that's true, then the Oracle knew about the Familicide and pushed the black dragon into it anyways. That's a nightmare for the plot.

It also doesn't match how we see the Oracle deliver prophecies. He goes into his oracular trance as the questions are asked, implying the oracle can't proceed until after the question is asked. While it's possible to believe that it's all a show, I think theories that make what we see in the comic meaningful should be considered instead of sticking with the theory that makes everything a charade.

It also assumes that the Oracle has access to all the available information. If there's a kickstarter reward with the story of what really happened to Belkar in it, and it's excluded from the corpus the Oracle is allowed to read, then the Oracle may never suspect it's there, since his version of the story will seem complete.

[Peelee]

If that's true, then the Oracle knew about the Familicide and pushed the black dragon into it anyways. That's a nightmare for the plot.
No, it's not, because the Oracle doesn't push anyone into anything. The Oracle answers questions. What you're describing is very much like how many people mischaracterize entrapment. The Oracle told the dragon where V was. That's it. No pushing towards anything.

It also doesn't match how we see the Oracle deliver prophecies. He goes into his oracular trance as the questions are asked, implying the oracle can't proceed until after the question is asked. While it's possible to believe that it's all a show, I think theories that make what we see in the comic meaningful should be considered instead of sticking with the theory that makes everything a charade.
It does match. You're assuming (not unreasonably, i should note) that the trance is how the Oracle gets the answers. I have previously posited that this is wrong - the Oracle rattles off soothsayings offhandeldy outside of the trance (many of which we csn verify were indeed accurate foretellings), so he clearly doesn't need to be asked a question to look into the future. I maintain that the trance merely allows the customer to remember the prophecy. It doesn't let him see into the future, it lets the words bypass the memory charm. That's it. We never see a trance when he says that Roy and Elan are late for family reunions, or calls Eugene "ghost dad", for example.

It also assumes that the Oracle has access to all the available information. If there's a kickstarter reward with the story of what really happened to Belkar in it, and it's excluded from the corpus the Oracle is allowed to read, then the Oracle may never suspect it's there, since his version of the story will seem complete.
It does not, any more than any other way of telling the future on demand does. The Oracle still has to choose what he looks at in the future.

[KorvinStarmast]

For 4th wall breaking, i bet you were thinking of panel 6 (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0572.html). Yes, that's a 4th wall break.

The Oracle told the dragon where V was. That's it. No pushing towards anything. Concur. The ABD had agency, and made a choice. Even the fiends were only about 80% sure of V taking their bait. The ABD, for example, could have simply killed V right there on the island and that would have been it.
But the ABD decided to rub it in (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0628.html)...and choice Oracle had nothing to do with.

[Tubercular Ox]

It does match. You're assuming (not unreasonably, i should note) that the trance is how the Oracle gets the answers. I have previously posited that this is wrong

So the green lights, the image of Tiamat, and identifying the recipients unambiguously (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0331.html) is a charade that no one is going to remember, but the Oracle gloating over Belkar's death cannot be a charade, because the Oracle would never go through with a charade that no one is going to remember?

[Ruck]

If that is your impersonation of someone thinking Doylistically, then I can understand your frustration when people bring it up. However, use that massive character-identifying noggin and ask yourself when I have ever supported leaving a problem alone.


Then I am not thinking Doylistically and my mistake was letting you label me such without a fight. My argument is nothing like what you present. My argument is that it is relatively easy to manufacture arbitrarily astounding coincidences when you can rewrite the entire story in order to make those coincidences more astounding, and therefore a coincidence being astounding doesn't automatically make it unlikely.

Doylistic reasoning is reasoning from the author's perspective. Watsonian reasoning is reasoning from the character's perspective.

You described reasoning from Rich's perspective. Therefore, it is Doylist. No impressions or mislabels or anything else of the kind.

[Peelee]

So the green lights, the image of Tiamat, and identifying the recipients unambiguously (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0331.html) is a charade that no one is going to remember, but the Oracle gloating over Belkar's death cannot be a charade, because the Oracle would never go through with a charade that no one is going to remember?

Like I said, it's not unreasonable. However, we know that the Oracle knows many things about the Order in the future that he foretold without any of that, and we know they forgot all of that and only remembered what he said in the green glow. That implication is clear, at least to me.

[brian 333]

No, it's not, because the Oracle doesn't push anyone into anything. The Oracle answers questions. What you're describing is very much like how many people mischaracterize entrapment. The Oracle told the dragon where V was. That's it. No pushing towards anything.

It does match. You're assuming (not unreasonably, i should note) that the trance is how the Oracle gets the answers. I have previously posited that this is wrong - the Oracle rattles off soothsayings offhandeldy outside of the trance (many of which we csn verify were indeed accurate foretellings), so he clearly doesn't need to be asked a question to look into the future. I maintain that the trance merely allows the customer to remember the prophecy. It doesn't let him see into the future, it lets the words bypass the memory charm. That's it. We never see a trance when he says that Roy and Elan are late for family reunions, or calls Eugene "ghost dad", for example.

It does not, any more than any other way of telling the future on demand does. The Oracle still has to choose what he looks at in the future.

What if The Oracle has all of everything laid out in its mind and it is like a memory? In such a case, The Oracle does not control what it sees because for The Oracle it has already happened.

Think of it as The Oracle living backwards in time like Merlin in the Once and Future King. He knows the future, but can't change it any more than we can change our past.

In this case, The Oracle does not 'choose what it looks at' or perform a spell or ritual to gain insights into the future. What it does is more like two old friends remembering things they did in the past.

"Remember that time when that thing happened?"
"Yeah, I thought she'd never tell him I love you!"

[Peelee]

What if The Oracle has all of everything laid out in its mind and it is like a memory? In such a case, The Oracle does not control what it sees because for The Oracle it has already happened.

Think of it as The Oracle living backwards in time like Merlin in the Once and Future King. He knows the future, but can't change it any more than we can change our past.

In this case, The Oracle does not 'choose what it looks at' or perform a spell or ritual to gain insights into the future. What it does is more like two old friends remembering things they did in the past.

"Remember that time when that thing happened?"
"Yeah, I thought she'd never tell him I love you!"
Would that change anything?

[Precure]

Watsonian explanation would be: He manipulated Roy into a false security about Belkar's destiny, so Roy would tolerate him until the final dungeon.

[Provengreil]

Watsonian explanation would be: He manipulated Roy into a false security about Belkar's destiny, so Roy would tolerate him until the final dungeon.

As opposed to what other outcome? Even if Roy didn't have the foretelling, he'd tolerate Belkar simply for being a member of the team, and likely be planning to remand him to the Azurites custody afterwards.

[Precure]

As opposed to what other outcome? Even if Roy didn't have the foretelling, he'd tolerate Belkar simply for being a member of the team, and likely be planning to remand him to the Azurites custody afterwards.

He and Haley decided on keeping him on the team after Roy assured her that Belkar "won't be a problem after few weeks," based on the death prophecy.

https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0666.html

[Peelee]

He and Haley decided on keeping him on the team after Roy assured her that Belkar "won't be a problem after few weeks," based on the death prophecy.

https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0666.html

I don't think the reassurance was necessary - he was already employee of the month, so far as controlling him went.

[Provengreil]

He and Haley decided on keeping him on the team after Roy assured her that Belkar "won't be a problem after few weeks," based on the death prophecy.

https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0666.html

the question was not whether or not to keep him, it was a much more open ended question of what to do if they can't control him.

"Keep him pointed at Xykon until after the gates issue is resolved, then turn him over to the Azurites" is a highly likely answer to that question, given that not only was it already what they were doing, but also Roy had recently been given proof that it was actually containing Belkar.

Roy Knowing Belkar has weeks to live at most just chops the last part of that off, he's never going to prison.

[Precure]

I don't think the reassurance was necessary - he was already employee of the month, so far as controlling him went.

His being the employee of the month was the problem: Neither Haley nor Roy believed his act and don't trust him without the mark's guarantee.


the question was not whether or not to keep him, it was a much more open ended question of what to do if they can't control him.

"Keep him pointed at Xykon until after the gates issue is resolved, then turn him over to the Azurites" is a highly likely answer to that question, given that not only was it already what they were doing, but also Roy had recently been given proof that it was actually containing Belkar.

Recent events shown that Belkar was impossible to control without something like the mark of justice. By that point of story both of them had reasons to believe he's way too untrustworthy to keep along.

[Peelee]

His being the employee of the month was the problem: Neither Haley nor Roy believed his act and don't trust him without the mark's guarantee.

First, them not trusting him is irrelevant to his newfound behavior - they never trusted him. Kept him around anyway. Roy already demonstrated ability to control Belkar well enough, and Belkar is explicity on better behavior than ever before. Sans prophecy, nothing about their feelings towards him changed since before Roy died except Belkar is seemingly even easier to control now.

[Precure]

Haley was willing to abandon him after he killed the oracle. Belkar is not easier to control now, as they lost the guarantee of the mark, and Roy just informed of V's turn to evil and assumed it was about Belkar.

[Peelee]

Haley was willing to abandon him after he killed the oracle. Belkar is not easier to control now, as they lost the guarantee of the mark, and Roy just informed of V's turn to evil and assumed it was about Belkar.

Yes, because Haley could not control him. Roy is in charge again. And Roy can control him. A literal being of Law and Good confirmed this. And, again, that was before he was "employee of the month", where he is even easier to control. No prophecy would just mean that Roy would keep Belkar anyway and if he survived the Xykon bit, then figure out what to do with Belkar afterwards.

[Precure]

That being of Law and Good also called it risky to use Belkar like that and admonished Roy for not leaving him on the jail. Also, Roy's original plan of "travelling jail" was supposed to work due to the mark of justice.

[Peelee]

That being of Law and Good also called it risky to use Belkar like that and admonished Roy for not leaving him on the jail. Also, Roy's original plan of "travelling jail" was supposed to work due to the mark of justice.

MoJ was only in effect for what, a week (at least, during Roy's lifetime)? I don't know why you insist that Roy's clear ability to control Belkar irrespective of MoJ or knowing his fate, which he both demonstrates (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0748.html) and talks about, and which the Author explicitly talks about in book commentary as one of the large factors in how Roy was able to be an effective leader but Haley wasn't, suddenly would no longer be the case just because Belkar is behaving better than normal and Belkar doesn't have a MoJ anymore. Especially since Roy is planning a final attempt to take down Xykon and save the world, for which he will need any assistance he can get.

[Gurgeh]

MoJ was only in effect for what, a week?
The Mark was around from after the trial (so - at least a little downtime in Azure City around the new year, a visit to the Oracle, tangling with Nale at Cliffport, and the siege of the city), and then another three and a half months (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0498.html) before Celia turned up. I think it'd be reasonable to assume somewhere between four and five months from application to it firing off in Sunkey Valley.

[Precure]

I don't know why you insist that Roy's clear ability to control Belkar irrespective of MoJ or knowing his fate, which he both demonstrates (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0748.html)

If this is supposed to demonstrate Roy's ability to control, he's pretty bad at his job.


and talks about, and which the Author explicitly talks about in book commentary as one of the large factors in how Roy was able to be an effective leader but Haley wasn't, suddenly would no longer be the case just because Belkar is behaving better than normal and Belkar doesn't have a MoJ anymore.

Was Roy ever able to control him before?


Especially since Roy is planning a final attempt to take down Xykon and save the world, for which he will need any assistance he can get.

If he can't trust Belkar, how can he trust him when they face Xykon? There is no guarantee he won't switch sides if the push comes.

https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0521.html

[OvisCaedo]

Given that Xykon's plan would result in Belkar's own death, it's pretty unlikely for him to want to switch sides.

Ultimately, despite all of Belkar's wretched behavior, and repeated toying with the idea of betraying the party, he's still there and on their side.

[Peelee]

The Mark was around from after the trial (so - at least a little downtime in Azure City around the new year, a visit to the Oracle, tangling with Nale at Cliffport, and the siege of the city), and then another three and a half months (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0498.html) before Celia turned up. I think it'd be reasonable to assume somewhere between four and five months from application to it firing off in Sunkey Valley.

MoJ was only in effect for what, a week (at least, during Roy's lifetime)?

If this is supposed to demonstrate Roy's ability to control, he's pretty bad at his job.
The scene where he tels Belkar to stop, Belkar doesn't stop, and then he makes Belkar stop? Seems pretty effective.


Was Roy ever able to control him before?
Yes. As both shown in-comic with the deva (with a chart!) and out-of-comic with author commentary.

If he can't trust Belkar, how can he trust him when they face Xykon? There is no guarantee he won't switch sides if the push comes.
Notwithstanding that Belkar knows exactly what is on the line and thus switching is pointless for him, there's also the whole "Belkar has been acting significantly better lately" thing that you seem tl keep sweeping under the rug.

[brian 333]

Roy most definitely does not trust Belkar. He is in the position of a circus lion tamer; he has to be on guard and prepared to assert dominance at all times.

It's why Roy gets no sleep.

[Peelee]

Roy most definitely does not trust Belkar. He is in the position of a circus lion tamer; he has to be on guard and prepared to assert dominance at all times.

It's why Roy gets no sleep.

Oh, i fully agree he doesn't trust Belkar. That lack of trust didn't prevent him from using Belkar against Xykon before (and without a Mark of Justice) , so it's difficult to understand why Roy would suddenly decide to drop Belkar just because the MoJ is gone.

[KorvinStarmast]

Yes, because Haley could not control him. Roy is in charge again. And Roy can control him. A literal being of Law and Good confirmed this. And, again, that was before he was "employee of the month", where he is even easier to control. No prophecy would just mean that Roy would keep Belkar anyway and if he survived the Xykon bit, then figure out what to do with Belkar afterwards. Belkar recognizes Roy as the alpha dog.

Was Roy ever able to control him before?
I work with the tools I am given.
~ Roy Greenhilt ~

[Blue Dragon]

The only thing I am really waiting about Belkar's demise is if he will lament about refusing the invite to lunch from that cute gnome girl in Tinkertown.

[woweedd]

The only thing I am really waiting about Belkar's demise is if he will lament about refusing the invite to lunch from that cute gnome girl in Tinkertown.

Him doing that was a moment of character development no? IE him refusing indicates that he's developed a sense of guilt, in this case about the fact he just scammed her.

[Metastachydium]

Yes. As both shown in-comic with the deva (with a chart!) and out-of-comic with author commentary.

It's not even just an informed ability of Roy's (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0125.html) and even Belkar acknowledges it's a thing (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0881.html).

[Precure]

So, Roy's whole deal of being a better leader and controlling Belkar was nothing more than beating him into submission? Call me unimpressed.

[Gurgeh]

Whatever works!

[woweedd]

So, Roy's whole deal of being a better leader and controlling Belkar was nothing more than beating him into submission? Call me unimpressed.

Well, the implict threat thereof, which is one if the few things Belkar would listen to at that point.

[Mic_128]

If he can't trust Belkar, how can he trust him when they face Xykon? There is no guarantee he won't switch sides if the push comes.

https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0521.html

Are you really suggesting that things haven't changed at all from a spot 2/5ths in the story? We're 700 strips past that point. Hell, we saw as of here, he seems to be willing to go quietly to prison. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1280.html) If that's not character development, I don't know what is.


Roy most definitely does not trust Belkar. He is in the position of a circus lion tamer; he has to be on guard and prepared to assert dominance at all times.

It's why Roy gets no sleep.

Things have changed. Hell, they explicitly addressed that in-comic.
https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1187.html

[Ruck]

So, Roy's whole deal of being a better leader and controlling Belkar was nothing more than beating him into submission? Call me unimpressed.

Fortunately for Roy, the question was whether he had been effective at controlling Belkar, not whether you were impressed by his methods.

[woweedd]

Roy most definitely does not trust Belkar. He is in the position of a circus lion tamer; he has to be on guard and prepared to assert dominance at all times.

It's why Roy gets no sleep.
At least, pre-Book 6 or so, yeah. This, incidentally, is why Roy could control Belkar, to the extent he did, while Haley could not: Asserting dominance, in the way that earns Belkar's...Not respect, but at least "understanding that he has to watch himself or get wrecked" is not something in her skill set. She's not meek, but leaning into the weight of authority goes against her own Chaotic nature, and Belkar knows it. Pulling rank, the way Roy does, would contradict her own self-image too heavily.


If he can't trust Belkar, how can he trust him when they face Xykon? There is no guarantee he won't switch sides if the push comes.

https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0521.html
He's changed a lot since then. That moment where Durkon sacrificed his life for him, died on behalf of someone who had never been anything but awful to him, seems to have really shaken Belkar. And, since then, well, let's go down the list:
. Him giving a whole speech on the concept of character development, which is, presumably, Rich trying to tell us something. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0957.html)
. Him actually thanking V for the help, apparently genuinely. Not much, but, from someone who, even while faking character development, was still pretty abrasive, it's notable. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0960.html)
. Him...OK, still scamming the shopkeep, but, notably refusing the date, and, in the process, indicated he has gained the power to feel guilt. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0969.html)
. Him spelling it out: Durkon's death made him think and feel for someone else, possibly for the first time ever, and it hurts, with him verbally lashing out at his own development. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1130.html)
. Minor line, but him actually referring to Durkon as a buddy unironically. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1164.html)
. Him showing up for Elan's story recap, and, in the process, showing that he now actually gives a darn about what's happening. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1188.html)
. His, unprompted, going over to check with Minrah to see what buffs she can provide for him in combat so that they both can be useful in the final battle. As in, he wants to be helpful, both to the final battle and to another member of his party. And, for that matter, proceeding to have an actually pleasant non-hostile conversation with a Lawful Good character. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1194.html)
. And, finally, small moment, but still: Him actively trying to de-escalate the fight with Serini before any of the rest of the party tried diplomacy. (https://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots1250.html)

Belkar's changed, whether you accept it or not.

[Peelee]

So, Roy's whole deal of being a better leader and controlling Belkar was nothing more than beating him into submission? Call me unimpressed.

Hi, Unimpressed.

Anyway, one tool in a toolbox is different than only having a hammer so everything looks like a nail. But really, if you're unimpressed with Roy stating he can control Belkar, Belkar admitting Roy can control Belkar, Roy being shown to control Belkar, a literal divine judge admitting Roy can control Belkar, and the author of the comic talking about how Roy can control Belkar, then maybe its not the arguments that are the issue here. Maybe it's your expectations.

[woweedd]

Hi, Unimpressed.

Anyway, one tool in a toolbox is different than only having a hammer so everything looks like a nail. But really, if you're unimpressed with Roy stating he can control Belkar, Belkar admitting Roy can control Belkar, Roy being shown to control Belkar, a literal divine judge admitting Roy can control Belkar, and the author of the comic talking about how Roy can control Belkar, then maybe its not the arguments that are the issue here. Maybe it's your expectations.

I would actually argue Roy's control wasn't quite up to snuff, but, then, I was totally down with the "slit his throat in the night" option*, pre-Book 6, so...

* Or, I guess, challenge him to a honorable duel if you're gonna be ultra-Lawful about this.

[KorvinStarmast]

I would actually argue Roy's control wasn't quite up to snuff, but, then, I was totally down with the "slit his throat in the night" option*, pre-Book 6, so...

* Or, I guess, challenge him to a honorable duel if you're gonna be ultra-Lawful about this. Keep him pointed at the bad guys so that he's not a threat to the good guys has been Roy's MO for a while, as he discussed with the Deva.

As to handling Belkar as he has done, it looks like he read a few pages from the Bill Parcells leadership / coaching manual (summarized):

You have to know each of your players individually, know what makes them tick and push those buttons accordingly.

[Metastachydium]

Keep him pointed at the bad guys so that he's not a threat to the good guys has been Roy's MO for a while, as he discussed with the Deva.

As to handling Belkar as he has done, it looks like he read a few pages from the Bill Parcells leadership / coaching manual (summarized):

You have to know each of your players individually, know what makes them tick and push those buttons accordingly.

Precisely. It's not like he led the group through threatening all the others with violence. He just happens to have realized Belkar's love language the language Belkar used to understand best was violence or the threat thereof.

[Somniloquist]

Belkar's love language

Vaarsuvius suspects you were right the first time.:smalltongue:

[Metastachydium]

Vaarsuvius suspects you were right the first time.:smalltongue:

Well, yes, but sometimes I'm not sure it's not V who has the lower WIS score.

[woweedd]

Keep him pointed at the bad guys so that he's not a threat to the good guys has been Roy's MO for a while, as he discussed with the Deva.

As to handling Belkar as he has done, it looks like he read a few pages from the Bill Parcells leadership / coaching manual (summarized):

You have to know each of your players individually, know what makes them tick and push those buttons accordingly.

No, I grasp that, to be clear, I am disagreeing with his choice to let Belkar keep existing. Keeping him pointed at the bad guys is a good idea, but his control was not foolproof, as various fleeing goblins, 1st level Barbarians, and so on can attest.