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SoD
2008-10-12, 07:01 AM
Do you beleive in a dices luck? Or a way to imbue them with extra luck? My 8d6 (2 lots of 4d6, 4 silver, 4 white) stat dice recently rolled me the equivlant to 59 point buy (16, 15, 16, 17, 18, 10), and I was thrilled. They had always given me slightly better than average stats, but this was amazing! However...since then, they've yet to give me anything amazing. Here, I'll roll 3 lots of stats:

13, 8, 9, 10, 18, 6. (Wow. An 18! Typical...not bad enough to warrent a reroll, but bad enough to be **** annoying)-22 point buy.

15, 16, 14, 11, 13, 8. (I swear this is the first good stat lot I've seen since the lucky rolls.)-32 point buy (I don't beleive it! Broken stuff always works when you show other people!)

9, 12, 11, 6, 13, 9. (This is average rolls lately.)-12 point buy.

Any way to put more luck in them? Or do I need to retire my favorite dice? Any lucky dice stories from out in the playground?

Sstoopidtallkid
2008-10-12, 07:12 AM
I wish I knew. I recently took a hammer to a d20. My stats are usually junk, with the occasional massive roll. My rolls in-game are horrid, too. Not just my rolls. Any roll that specifically affects me will be about as bad as possible. I lost a char due to failing 4 reflex saves out of 8 when facing a bunch of casters. Against their Lightning Bolts, out of wands. I needed a 4 to save. And I still might have been fine, but the DM rolled abnormally high damage. I was not happy, not happy at all. Not that I'd planned to survive, but I had hoped I'd get a hit or 2 in. I might have even with that roll luck anyways, if I hadn't faced 4 20s on Init. Apparently, the dust from my body formed a small electric storm that lasted for hours and was very pretty, so I'm told. :smallfurious:

Staven
2008-10-12, 07:39 AM
We have this one d20. It is a fickle creature. We will roll a 20 on finding the king's sceptor on a search check, right after a long and grueling fight with the lich, who pretty much took out the tank, because the tank rolled a 1 on his fort save to resist the paralyzing touch. Oh, and the wizard is pissed off because every single one of his spells, saved for that last one, was used up on the lich because it kept rolling so high. Our die doesn't hate us. It just likes toying with us.

Kobold-Bard
2008-10-12, 07:46 AM
I have a gold d20 (plated obviously) that is a lucky charm rather than a lucky dice.

As long as I leave it in my dice bag it imbues the others with luck but it itself is an evil sod, I don't think I've ever rolled higher than a 9 on it.

So as long as I have it but don't use it, my other dice seem to work consistently well.

And yes, I know this is insane, but thats the way I roll (literally :smallbiggrin:)

Hal
2008-10-12, 07:57 AM
I have a gold d20 (plated obviously) that is a lucky charm rather than a lucky dice.

As long as I leave it in my dice bag it imbues the others with luck but it itself is an evil sod, I don't think I've ever rolled higher than a 9 on it.

So as long as I have it but don't use it, my other dice seem to work consistently well.

And yes, I know this is insane, but thats the way I roll (literally :smallbiggrin:)

Don't you see what's happening there? It loses all of its luck to the other dice via osmosis! Just leave it in a bag with one die, and that die will be perfect.

As for me, my luck just varies way too much. I tend to hit 15+ when it is of no importance (random combat rolls where I'm not a high contributor, spot/listen checks to notice something in the room, etc.). I tend to largely hit 5 or less when it is more important . . . search checks, knowledge checks, anything important. The only exception last week was when we found some artifact and we didn't know what it was. I rolled a 20 for a UMD check to figure out what the thing did. Basically, we had this alien cube thing and I started treating it like a Rubik's cube. Nearly killed the whole party doing it.

Tsotha-lanti
2008-10-12, 08:11 AM
"Luck" is a collection of superstitions and logical errors like selective thinking, retrospective falsification, selection bias, and availability error. (See here (http://www.skepdic.com/tilogic.html).) It's particularly common among gamers, since they roll a lot of dice.

It's essentially impossible to process and remember enough dice rolls to actually get real statistics (which would show that the dice rolls come out to the averages), without recording all of them properly.

Alternatively, someone might term "luck" to be when you roll something, rather than what you roll. That's more of the same errors and superstition - what's actually going on there is chance.

Hal
2008-10-12, 08:28 AM
"Luck" is a collection of superstitions and logical errors like selective thinking, retrospective falsification, selection bias, and availability error. (See here (http://www.skepdic.com/tilogic.html).) It's particularly common among gamers, since they roll a lot of dice.

It's essentially impossible to process and remember enough dice rolls to actually get real statistics (which would show that the dice rolls come out to the averages), without recording all of them properly.

Alternatively, someone might term "luck" to be when you roll something, rather than what you roll. That's more of the same errors and superstition - what's actually going on there is chance.

. . . Do you have to suck all the fun out of the room?

leperkhaun
2008-10-12, 08:37 AM
i dont believe in lucky dice, i however do believe in dice that have some super super super small defects that causes it to tend to roll certain numbers.

Bryn
2008-10-12, 08:42 AM
Tsotha-lanti, all these elaborate dice rituals are really one long running joke among gamers. Wey know it's not real, but it's funny, so we do it all the same. :smallbiggrin:

Sstoopidtallkid
2008-10-12, 08:47 AM
Tsotha-lanti, all these elaborate dice rituals are really one long running joke among gamers. Wey know it's not real, but it's funny, so we do it all the same. :smallbiggrin:RPGers. We may have degrees in Statistics, Probability Theory, and Advanced Mathematics, but when facing a Dragon, we will still grab the White d20, because "It's hot tonight". :smallwink:

Quirinus_Obsidian
2008-10-12, 08:56 AM
thanks, Mr. Buzzkillington. :smallfrown:

But in all honesty, superstition is high amongst gamers. I freeze my dice and figurines after every game. That and I love the cold element. It may not be "optimized" but is still fun to play.

Mr.Bookworm
2008-10-12, 09:02 AM
I lovingly handcrafted a paper d6.

I took out all my dice, put them in a circle around it so they could see.

Then I impaled the d6 on a pencil, and set it on fire.

Now they know the consequence of failure.

Demons_eye
2008-10-12, 09:05 AM
You sir are f*cking awsome

snoopy13a
2008-10-12, 10:17 AM
"Luck" is a collection of superstitions and logical errors like selective thinking, retrospective falsification, selection bias, and availability error. (See here (http://www.skepdic.com/tilogic.html).) It's particularly common among gamers, since they roll a lot of dice.

It's essentially impossible to process and remember enough dice rolls to actually get real statistics (which would show that the dice rolls come out to the averages), without recording all of them properly.

Alternatively, someone might term "luck" to be when you roll something, rather than what you roll. That's more of the same errors and superstition - what's actually going on there is chance.

You're wrong. Everyone knows in a coin flip that "tails never fails" :smalltongue:

I do always call tails though. I like the rhyme :smallbiggrin:

Isomenes
2008-10-12, 10:25 AM
RPGers. We may have degrees in Statistics, Probability Theory, and Advanced Mathematics, but when facing a Dragon, we will still grab the White d20, because "It's hot tonight". :smallwink:

So profound, and all too true. May I sig this?

Return of Lanky
2008-10-12, 10:33 AM
As the GM for my group, they dread when I bring out a die they call PC Killer, a orange with black flecks d20 that's the size of a hardball. The thump it makes when I roll it is truly awesome, as is the fact that it's one of my luckiest dice. I save it for the big-bad bosses.

Tsotha-lanti: Part of a die's "luck" is the tiny imperfections which skew it's completely random rolling in some way. I've got a d10 with a very slight chip in one corner which means that it still flip-flops between the 1-5 size and the 6-10 side when slow rolling. For some gamers, that d10 would be "bad luck", consistently bringing them to the lower side. Others might discover it to be "good luck", bringing them to the higher side regularly. The chip is nigh-unnoticeable, but when the d10 is rolling slow enough to just be lazily slipping from one plane to another, it does that little flip no fail every time a 7 or a 4 comes up.

kamikasei
2008-10-12, 10:41 AM
Sure, any given die is likely to be a little biased due to imperfections in its manufacture. I doubt most players' dice superstitions line up with the actual statistical performance of their dice, though. For one thing, a genuine bias in the die can have nothing to do with a perception that they roll whatever you want, or whatever you don't want, and may change their tendencies according to what you need; or that a die is "toying" with you, or tends to fail when you need it, or anything like that. All the fallacies Tsotha-lanti mentions are in action in those cases.

Anyway, no, in case it's not obvious I don't believe in luck and I think the notion is actually harmful.

Vortling
2008-10-12, 10:51 AM
Worse than real life dice are the dicebots you find in chat channels, messenger clients, and the like. They are never appeased and almost always favor the DM. It's crazy how many 20s the DM will roll compared to the sum total rolled by the players.

Laurellien
2008-10-12, 10:52 AM
"Luck" is a collection of superstitions and logical errors like selective thinking, retrospective falsification, selection bias, and availability error. (See here (http://www.skepdic.com/tilogic.html).) It's particularly common among gamers, since they roll a lot of dice.

It's essentially impossible to process and remember enough dice rolls to actually get real statistics (which would show that the dice rolls come out to the averages), without recording all of them properly.

Alternatively, someone might term "luck" to be when you roll something, rather than what you roll. That's more of the same errors and superstition - what's actually going on there is chance.

Well it just so happened that while playing warhammer 40k, I had a set of bad luck with my daemon princes that I put down to random chance, typically they would make 5 attacks on the charge, needing 3's to hit, and only 2 would hit. Therefore, in the next three games, I actually kept a log of their combat performance, and in each game, over half of their attacks missed. I got new dice, and they seem to work well.

Saph
2008-10-12, 10:53 AM
I have the same set of dice I use for everything. Even when one seems to be doing better than the others I try to use them all evenly, because I don't want to discourage any of them. :)

Most of the time I think the 'lucky/unlucky dice' thing is cute, but on rare occasions it gets on my nerves. There's one guy in our group who keeps complaining about his luck IN A VERY LOUD VOICE, and even will throw his dice if he's upset.

At yesterday's session he was so angry about his damage result for a 5d6 Fireball that he threw a couple of the dice across the table and scattered the minis. The result? 13 on 5d6.

My probability skills aren't good enough to calculate the standard deviation of 5d6 off the top of my head, but I do know that getting outraged at a result of 13 is not reasonable.

- Saph

Lydronk
2008-10-12, 10:54 AM
My d10 set can give nearly infinite number of rerolls if conditions are right. To the ones who doesn't now, in nWoD system, results of 8, 9 and 10 are success on a d10. If you get 10, you roll again, and add the new result. If it is 10 again, you roll again and this goes on...

If my dice pool is consisted of 5+ dices, which I am sure will get at least an exceptional success, and none of the results is a success except one or two 10s, I may get an exceptional succes. While chance of gettin an exceptional success is greater with more dice on the pool, and one 10, it lowers if there is two 10s, thus possibly not enabling an e.s. anytime.

I figured that the key here is first confidence, then hopelessness.

I must bu sure that there will be a high number of success, but must be dissapointed and think "this won't work!" when get the low number of successes. I also think that my dice don't do this favor to me that much, while players are affected by my thoughts so often! I hate you d10s!(No, I actually don't...)

overduegalaxy
2008-10-12, 11:18 AM
Whenever my dice are at rest, they must always have their highest value facing up. This way, as gravity slowly and gradually deforms them, they'll weigh slightly more on the side opposite their highest value.

It's totally scientific.

Khosan
2008-10-12, 11:31 AM
File down the edges of high numbers. Keeps the die rolling when that face is down, meaning it's more likely that the high numbers will land face up.

TheCountAlucard
2008-10-12, 11:47 AM
Friday's game was disappointing because just about every dice roll on the players' side was an utter failure. We're talking, "the party hauls up a treasure chest, and it hits the bard in the face, leaving blood and shards of teeth embedded in the chest while the cleric has to burn one of his spells" failure. It got to the point where...

DM: (about to make the roll for the BBEG's skill check) ...Actually, Justin, you haven't rolled higher than a 6 tonight, you roll it. Here you go. (hands him a d20)

Justin: Okay. (rolls, gets a 20)

DM: (brief moment of silence) Ooookay, sucks for you guys...

NEO|Phyte
2008-10-12, 11:58 AM
Whenever my dice are at rest, they must always have their highest value facing up. This way, as gravity slowly and gradually deforms them, they'll weigh slightly more on the side opposite their highest value.

It's totally scientific.

Yay for science!

Tsotha-lanti
2008-10-12, 12:00 PM
Well it just so happened that while playing warhammer 40k, I had a set of bad luck with my daemon princes that I put down to random chance, typically they would make 5 attacks on the charge, needing 3's to hit, and only 2 would hit. Therefore, in the next three games, I actually kept a log of their combat performance, and in each game, over half of their attacks missed. I got new dice, and they seem to work well.

What is actually going on here:
You do not understand statistics and chance.


Tsotha-lanti: Part of a die's "luck" is the tiny imperfections which skew it's completely random rolling in some way. I've got a d10 with a very slight chip in one corner which means that it still flip-flops between the 1-5 size and the 6-10 side when slow rolling. For some gamers, that d10 would be "bad luck", consistently bringing them to the lower side. Others might discover it to be "good luck", bringing them to the higher side regularly. The chip is nigh-unnoticeable, but when the d10 is rolling slow enough to just be lazily slipping from one plane to another, it does that little flip no fail every time a 7 or a 4 comes up.

By your own admission, this effect is miniscule. This means it cannot be determined intuitively, especially when the errors and biases of logic and perception (see my previous post) have a far greater effect.

You need to record some thousands of repetitions to get a high enough confidence interval for the results to be useful. This is not something that can be done intuitively, or over "three games."


Anyway, no, in case it's not obvious I don't believe in luck and I think the notion is actually harmful.

All superstition is, on some level. At the very best, it's just entirely unnecessary.


Most of the time I think the 'lucky/unlucky dice' thing is cute, but on rare occasions it gets on my nerves. There's one guy in our group who keeps complaining about his luck IN A VERY LOUD VOICE, and even will throw his dice if he's upset.

At yesterday's session he was so angry about his damage result for a 5d6 Fireball that he threw a couple of the dice across the table and scattered the minis. The result? 13 on 5d6.

My probability skills aren't good enough to calculate the standard deviation of 5d6 off the top of my head, but I do know that getting outraged at a result of 13 is not reasonable.

Case in point. The average of 5d6 is 17.5, the standard deviation is something like 3.82, so 13 is within 1.17 SDs, which is quite probable (can't be assed to actually do the functions, it's something like 10-15%).

Not that getting outraged at any dice result is reasonable.


Personally, I find a facility with statistics to be something of an advantage in RPGs - especially in ones with more "complex" resolution systems, like Shadowrun. It's like gambling - if you know your odds, you know when to go all in, when to pass, and so on.

Everyone can imagine who does better - the gambler relying on luck, or the gambler relying on statistics.

Return of Lanky
2008-10-12, 12:18 PM
Not that getting outraged at any dice result is reasonable.

I once nailed a PC with all four hits from a Meteor Swarm, dealing a total of 32d6 damage to him, resulting in a grand total of 41 damage. Outrage was called for there, I think.

kieza
2008-10-12, 12:58 PM
My probability skills aren't good enough to calculate the standard deviation of 5d6 off the top of my head, but I do know that getting outraged at a result of 13 is not reasonable.

- Saph

The population standard deviation of 5d6 is 3.82, if my Excel skills are up to par. Since we have a known population stdev and mean (17.5), we can use the z-distribution to determine that 95% of 5d6 rolls will be between 10 and 25. However, the probability of rolling a 13 or lower result is about 12%. Whether that chance is low enough to get upset about, only he can decide.

Yes, I was bored. Good thing I had my stats book out!

Mando Knight
2008-10-12, 01:02 PM
My red d20 seems to roll high only for me... I've gotten two pairs of consecutive 20s with it within three games of each other, and I think that the die's average has been over 11 so far...

Except when someone else is rolling. I don't think any of my siblings have landed 20s with my d20 ever, and their average is much lower.

Also on the topic of luck, I got one box of Against the Giants minis, and I got both a Fire Giant Raider and an Elder Red Dragon... and both are rare minis.

BizzaroStormy
2008-10-12, 01:15 PM
My groups luck doesnt come from which dice we roll, but how we roll them. 80% of the time, if I slap a certain other player in the face with my character sheets prior to rolling, I'll usually roll a 15-20 on a d20. Ill also get roughly the same results using other dice (8-10 on d10, 5 or 6 on d6, ect.) However hitting any other player, or rolling for someone else tends to curse your roll for the rest of the session. Which in our group are typically 6-8 hours.

Totally Guy
2008-10-12, 01:20 PM
I bought 2 sets of identical dice so that I cannot be sure of whether one is more lucky than the other. Start thinking in terms of luck aids... well that's a line I drew and decided no to cross. Hence 2 sets.

Copacetic
2008-10-12, 01:27 PM
"Luck" is a collection of superstitions and logical errors like selective thinking, retrospective falsification, selection bias, and availability error. (See here (http://www.skepdic.com/tilogic.html).) It's particularly common among gamers, since they roll a lot of dice.

It's essentially impossible to process and remember enough dice rolls to actually get real statistics (which would show that the dice rolls come out to the averages), without recording all of them properly.

Alternatively, someone might term "luck" to be when you roll something, rather than what you roll. That's more of the same errors and superstition - what's actually going on there is chance.

It's actually not. Dice are plastic, so all those gamers that leave their dice high sides up are actually onto something. plastic slowly flows over time, moving the center of mass away from the high numbers. This will actually work. (disclaimer, given enough time. Possibly centuries without using the dice)

Another sure-fire superstition is to buy thousands of the cheapest dice available( with defects, also you're buying thousands. cheap is better) Roll them. Record the averages. Pick the one with the highest average over a thousand rolls or so. Chances are you'll get one with a weird shape that rolls high.

kjones
2008-10-12, 01:36 PM
I have several luck methods.

Never use "virgin dice" in a high-pressure situation. Dice must be gradually broken in. One method for doing so is to take all your new dice and repeatedly roll them until the highest result is achieved, then switch to one of the other methods enumerating below.

Whenever a die is idle, leave it with the highest number facing up. The die will become "used" to this position and attempt to return to it.

If you have unlucky dice, rub them, one at a time, a hundred times each, across the signature of a famous game developer. Left to right for high numbers, right to left for low numbers. (Back in 2nd edition, you sometimes wanted low numbers.) Then put all the dice back in your dice bag and shake 100 times to redistribute the luck.

Rubbing a die on the person of a famous game developer, or the headstone of a deceased famous game developer, can also provide great luck, but this method is risky - the luck may be good or bad. (For example, rubbing a die onto Rich Burlew will probably give you good luck, whereas Jolly Blackburn will give you good luck if you are a GM but bad luck if you are a player, because that man is a sadistic bastard.)

Recite the mantra, "Cotton candy, sweet as gold, let me see that tootsie roll", rolling the die on the last word. This will provide you with good rolls when you don't need them, but terrible rolls when you do.

If you have an extremely unlucky die, it is important to isolate or destroy it as soon as possible. When destroying an unlucky die, it is important to make an example out of it. Line up the rest of your arsenal in front of it, then smash it with a hammer. I've heard that some people microwave their unlucky dice, but I can't see that ending well.

Under no circumstances should you try to get rid of an unlucky die by casting it into a body of water. Somehow, someday, it will return to haunt you. It is acceptable, however, to "accidentally" pawn off a bum die to a friend - it's their problem now. This is why a good gamer will know all of their dice by name.

(What? You don't name your dice? Shame on you!)

Incidentally, I've studied my fair share of probability. But everyone knows that the gaming table exists in an extradimensional space where the rules of probability do not apply.

Tsotha-lanti
2008-10-12, 03:48 PM
It's actually not. Dice are plastic, so all those gamers that leave their dice high sides up are actually onto something. plastic slowly flows over time, moving the center of mass away from the high numbers. This will actually work. (disclaimer, given enough time. Possibly centuries without using the dice)

Man, all those centuries-old roleplayers sure are on to something!


Incidentally, I've studied my fair share of probability. But everyone knows that the gaming table exists in an extradimensional space where the rules of probability do not apply.

That is to say, everyone knows that even educated people can be illogical and superstitious. Very true.

Zocelot
2008-10-12, 03:55 PM
I'm curious about how much people like rolling dice vs. like doing what they try to do.

Would you rather roll a 6 and succeed, or a 15 and fail?

Belkarsbadside1
2008-10-12, 04:06 PM
I have this one dice, It has a crush on one of my friends.
I am GM in a home brewed world and my players were in a dungeon. They were level 2-3 and they were facing a level 7 goblin cleric of the god of destruction. It was my friends turn and she accidentally used one of my dice on an attack roll against him. Her rolls were 20(crit)- 20(confirmed) -20(instakill) -20 (uber awesome pownage). After that, she bought that dice off of me and has been using it ever since. It still kicks my monsters butts.

FYI- My other dice don't give me any crap now because I took the advice of a cyber friend and took out all of my dice, took out the one that I hated the most, and melted it in the microwave and made the others watch.:smallbiggrin:
For zocelot: I would like the 15 and fail

Totally Guy
2008-10-12, 04:13 PM
FYI- My other dice don't give me any crap now because I took the advice of a cyber friend and took out all of my dice, took out the one that I hated the most, and melted it in the microwave and made the others watch.:smallbiggrin:

Make sure to melt it 20 facing up... then if you choose to use it again in the future...

Mr.Bookworm
2008-10-12, 04:26 PM
If you have an extremely unlucky die, it is important to isolate or destroy it as soon as possible. When destroying an unlucky die, it is important to make an example out of it. Line up the rest of your arsenal in front of it, then smash it with a hammer. I've heard that some people microwave their unlucky dice, but I can't see that ending well.

I find it important to demonstrate that you are willing, at a moment's notice, to douse your entire dice collection with gasoline and set them on fire.

Do this by making an example of effigy dice, and be willing to mutilate and destroy your normal dice at a moment's notice. I find that creativity is the best touch. Every die has heard of a another die being smashed with a hammer, but most have not heard of their owner taking a lighter and applying it to all of the faces but the one, and then placing it in front of the rest of your dice for a month, to remind them what happens.

Lord Herman
2008-10-12, 04:47 PM
I don't have any dice that are universally lucky or unlucky. I do, however, have six sets of different colours, which I use for specific purposes:

The White Dice of Not Dying are, obviously, for those rolls that could save a character's life. Death saves, skill checks in life-threatening situations, etc.

The Black Dice of Death are used for the black magicks, for killing someone until they die from it, and all-around death dealing. They roll particularly well for stealth checks and sneak attacks. If I want something dead, I use the black dice.

The Red Dice of Doom and Destruction are for destroying (and dooming) stuff. And also for all things fire-related. I use the red dice when I want something blown to smithereens.

The Green Dice of Grurk Power are named after my first character, Grurk, a half-orc barbarian. They are still imbued with the awesome power of Grurk, and can roll very well if Grurk favours your character. They're most effective for rolls concerning the unsubtle use of brute force.

The Purple Dice of Phat Lewts, Awesome Magic Power, and Interior Decoration served me well in rolling up good loot in 3.5, and are still useful for those loot-finding perception rolls. They're also great for spellcasting.

The Blue Dice of Nothing In Particular are my most unremarkable dice. They don't do anything special, except roll well for cold damage.


Superstitious? Me? Naaaaah.

I still want a super-lucky d20, though. Maybe I should get one of those silver ones, or one cut from some kind of gem. I could take it to Ireland to have it imbued with pure Irish luck.

DarknessLord
2008-10-12, 05:00 PM
I have a d10 with no numbers on it, it amuses me to no end. It always roles me a result I like, always.

Personally I find the superstition part of the fun of playing pretend in the role playing games, and yes it all means nothing, but I find that the only time to remind someone of that is when they start being loud and obnoxious about it.

Also, a dice, or a player, CAN be "hot" or "cold" on a given night, and if you recorded and averaged their rolls, it would be WAY off the expected result. I'm not saying there's a supernatural force at work here, but probability can only give you a trend, and with all the gaming groups and d20s out there, one probably has gotten the 1/33,554,432 chance of rolling all numbers over 10 on their d20 for 25 rolls, without the die having a single defect.

Edit: I also should point out that the perticular d20 over coming those odds are NO indication of it's performance in the future.

Also, I pose the question, if we shouldn't use luck, what should we use to describe the times when someone hit a really rare chance?

kamikasei
2008-10-12, 05:02 PM
Also, a dice, or a player, CAN be "hot" or "cold" on a given night, and if you recorded and averaged their rolls, it would be WAY off the expected result.

That's the gambler's fallacy. A run of bad luck only exists in retrospect; on the night, the fact that you may have rolled consistently badly so far does not mean anything about how you'll roll for the rest of the night. (Well, barring grossly defective dice.)

kjones
2008-10-12, 05:04 PM
That is to say, everyone knows that even educated people can be illogical and superstitious. Very true.

Fooey. Stop taking everything so seriously. Don't think of them as "superstitions", but rather as a recognition of the whimsical nature of probability in practice.

Whoever said that it's all an elaborate in-joke was spot on. We've all seen Lady Luck walk out on us at least once, and we remember all too well the tragedy or hilarity that ensued. And so we build our little altars to the dice-gods, knowing full well that we're dealing with inanimate plastic polyhedrons, because it's fun to pretend that, while we're pretending to be fantastic heroes, maybe we can swing the tides of fate around to our favor. Because it's just a game. You fumble that one-in-a-million shot, and it sucks, but it's all part of the game.

You could also think of it as efforts by munchkin-y gamers to control even the aspects of the game they cannot control (i. e. random chance), but such gamers are just as likely to cheat on die rolls, so I don't think that's really what drives these little rituals.

EDIT: There are, of course, some people who just don't understand probability. Ignore them.

DarknessLord
2008-10-12, 05:05 PM
I got edit ninja'd, I realized that could be taken that way so I edited that in. XD
I'm well aware of that.

drengnikrafe
2008-10-12, 05:16 PM
I have a really big D20. Think your clenched (sp?) fist +20%. I started using that one awhile ago, and it gets good rolls... I think more then 70% of the time. It's great fun.

DM "[instert some other character's name here], it's your turn."
Other Guy "I attack the darkness!"Normal D20 *clickityclickityclick*
Other Guy "Aww... a 3."
DM "Okay, [insert my character's name here], your turn."
Me "I attack the ogre!"
Big d20 *THUMPTHUMPTHUMPTHUMPTHUMP*
Me "17!"
...hehehe....

Dr Bwaa
2008-10-12, 05:19 PM
I have a lucky d20 and a very lucky set of 4d6. They're not actually a set, but they're my coolest-looking d6, and were always the ones I used for stat generation for that reason.

Has anyone ever noticed that DM dice roll better than PC dice? It's often true in my groups, and we don't use a DM screen. Well, remember those lucky 4d6 of mine? They were always pretty decent, until one day I became a DM and started rolling damage with them and that sort of thing.

Their power levels went way past 9000, immediately. Huge fireballs, Godly NPCs--my favorite of them, a pretty blue crystally one, was the lucky one I picked for rolling subdual damage on the party monk, who was forced-marching to the mountains while the rest of the party rested. I kid you not: in six hours or walking, the character took 36 subdual damage from forced-marching. He eventually knocked himself out, but he shouldn't have had to--the die rolled twice more that night, and you guessed it: 12 more damage.
Incidentally, the chances of that happening are 1/6^8, or about 0.0000595%. :smalleek:
Since using them as a DM, the dice have retained their power, causing death and mayhem everywhere they are employed. My most recent concerted use of them resulted in a character with--no joke--the following stats: 16, 16, 16, 16, 16, 16. (The original stats rolled were slightly different, but for this campaign we were not allowed to have any stats start above 16, so my two 18s and two 17s were lowered and my 12 and 14 raised equally :smalleek:) That's 60-point-buy, boys and girls--and the original rolls were 68! :)

I also have, now, a different set of DM dice (My players got tired of seeing those 4d6, especially the blue one): they're the brushed-steel dice from thinkgeek, and they roll very, very evenly. I don't feel bad at all no matter what they do :)

Mr.Bookworm
2008-10-12, 05:21 PM
Probability is a myth scientists made up so they could deny the sheer, hard reality of Lady Luck.

I mean, you're facing down a dragon, with the rest of your party down. If you hit it, the dragon dies, but if you miss, it lives and will kill you next turn. You roll a d20 to attack. On 1-10, you miss, but you hit on a 11-20, giving you 50-50 odds.

Now, a scientist, claiming that "probability" will determine the result, will simply roll a dice. He fails.

A gamer, however, will take his d20 outside, pour out his drink in front of it, and offer up potato chips as a sacrifice. He will then take it back inside, handling it as you would a glass baby, and stand before the table, bowing his head and filling his thoughts with the number 20. He will then, in silence, cast the dice in the most dramatic fashion possible.

He succeeds.

IN YOUR FACE PROBABILITY

kamikasei
2008-10-12, 05:24 PM
Edit: I also should point out that the perticular d20 over coming those odds are NO indication of it's performance in the future.

Also, I pose the question, if we shouldn't use luck, what should we use to describe the times when someone hit a really rare chance?

This is the thing. I have no problem with saying that someone had bad luck if something low-probability but unfortunate happened to them, or if an unlikely combination of circumstances ganged up on them one day. It's saying someone has bad luck, as in, you can expect things that should be dependent on chance to come out badly for them because they have this hidden property of unluck, that I object to (and the inverse for good luck too, of course). The one is simply noting something you wouldn't have been wise to bet on, while the other lends itself to a sort of fatalistic, magical thinking that is in my view bad for you (being both false, and psychologically damaging).

Tsotha-lanti
2008-10-12, 05:29 PM
Also, a dice, or a player, CAN be "hot" or "cold" on a given night, and if you recorded and averaged their rolls, it would be WAY off the expected result. I'm not saying there's a supernatural force at work here, but probability can only give you a trend, and with all the gaming groups and d20s out there, one probably has gotten the 1/33,554,432 chance of rolling all numbers over 10 on their d20 for 25 rolls, without the die having a single defect.

Unless you've made and recorded thousands of rolls, you aren't dealing with numbers meaningful enough for averages to truly appear.

It's looks like you don't understand your own example. The whole point of very large numbers and repetitions is that given enough attempts, every combination will happen. Of course someone's rolled a series of rolls that's a one in a million chance or less - the odds of a million-to-one-chance not cropping up over a million repetitions are only 37%. I can't even begin to guess how many repetitions have taken place at RPG sessions even in the last year.

This does not mean anyone is "hot" or "cold". This just means that, when observed after the fact, a sequence of random events is perceived as "lucky" or "unlucky".

The smaller a sample is, the less likely it is to conform to averages. The larger it is, the more closely it conforms.


Whoever said that it's all an elaborate in-joke was spot on.

That's not all it is, though. Plenty of people, and no doubt plenty of gamers, think "luck" is some real metaphysical phenomenon that affects random chance.


Also, I pose the question, if we shouldn't use luck, what should we use to describe the times when someone hit a really rare chance?

That's a perfectly acceptable use of the word. Favorable random chance is luck. This thread, however - looking at the OP and many responses - seems to be about the notion that dice or people can be inherently lucky, i.e. likely to produce favorable random results, which is nonsense. "Luck" only exists after the fact, as a value judgement placed on some result by observers.

Mr.Bookworm
2008-10-12, 05:34 PM
Unless you've made and recorded thousands of rolls, you aren't dealing with numbers meaningful enough for averages to truly appear.

It's looks like you don't understand your own example. The whole point of very large numbers and repetitions is that given enough attempts, every combination will happen. Of course someone's rolled a series of rolls that's a one in a million chance or less - the odds of a million-to-one-chance not cropping up over a million repetitions are only 37%. I can't even begin to guess how many repetitions have taken place at RPG sessions even in the last year.

Bah, everyone knows a million-to-one chance is a sure thing.


That's not all it is, though. Plenty of people, and no doubt plenty of gamers, think "luck" is some real metaphysical phenomenon that affects random chance.

That's a perfectly acceptable use of the word. Favorable random chance is luck. This thread, however - looking at the OP and many responses - seems to be about the notion that dice or people can be inherently lucky, i.e. likely to produce favorable random results, which is nonsense. "Luck" only exists after the fact, as a value judgement placed on some result by observers.

Misters Irony, Sarcasm, Joking, and Good-Natured Fun would like to have a word with you.

Tsotha-lanti
2008-10-12, 05:51 PM
Quoting Guards, Guards won't save you now.


Misters Irony, Sarcasm, Joking, and Good-Natured Fun would like to have a word with you.

So you would disagree that there is a huge number of people in the world who believe that supernatural factors like "luck" affect their lives?

Or are you disagreeing that there exists an intersection between that group and gamers?

Saph
2008-10-12, 05:59 PM
So you would disagree that there is a huge number of people in the world who believe that supernatural factors like "luck" affect their lives?

Or are you disagreeing that there exists an intersection between that group and gamers?

Oh, come on, you guys. Does it really matter? They're playing role-playing games. If they were gambling for four-figure sums, you'd have a point, but given that winning or losing a RPG means exactly nothing, I think there are bigger things to worry about.

- Saph

Mr.Bookworm
2008-10-12, 06:04 PM
Quoting Guards, Guards won't save you now.

There is nothing quoting Terry Pratchett cannot solve.


So you would disagree that there is a huge number of people in the world who believe that supernatural factors like "luck" affect their lives?

I think everyone has a little corner of their mind where they think that they can affect probability by their actions. I'd go so far as to say that it's human nature.


Or are you disagreeing that there exists an intersection between that group and gamers?

Only insofar as two unrelated segments of the population have an intersection. There might be a slight rise in believers in luck among gamers, but it would be small.


EDIT: Uh, am I the only one who looks at the thread and sees it saying that DarknessLord posted the last post?

DarknessLord
2008-10-12, 06:04 PM
Unless you've made and recorded thousands of rolls, you aren't dealing with numbers meaningful enough for averages to truly appear.
Exactly.


It's looks like you don't understand your own example. The whole point of very large numbers and repetitions is that given enough attempts, every combination will happen. Of course someone's rolled a series of rolls that's a one in a million chance or less - the odds of a million-to-one-chance not cropping up over a million repetitions are only 37%. I can't even begin to guess how many repetitions have taken place at RPG sessions even in the last year.

This does not mean anyone is "hot" or "cold". This just means that, when observed after the fact, a sequence of random events is perceived as "lucky" or "unlucky".

The smaller a sample is, the less likely it is to conform to averages. The larger it is, the more closely it conforms.
Now, I think you don't quite understand what I was trying to SHOW with that example, that person rolls the first ten times, all good rolls, at that point, the person was lucky, someone comments that he has been hot tonight, that, is true, given the roles. The next 15 roles are also good, this having nothing to do with his "hot" status or his last 10 roles. Statistically at some point, this has happened. By the accepted use of the word, on that given night, he was hot. The point was, for a given number of rolls, that a person can get hot, not that their hotness caused their good rolls, or that their previous good roles made them continue to roll well. So long as you are not using it as an indicator of future success, yes, you, or a dice can be hot or cold for a while.

Also I agree that most individual dice, aren't used enough to see a trend pop up reliably. The "unlucky" ones don't keep getting used, and you'll hear lots of stories about a "lucky" dice's "luck" fading, meaing they are using it more, and starting to get back towards the general trend.


That's a perfectly acceptable use of the word. Favorable random chance is luck. This thread, however - looking at the OP and many responses - seems to be about the notion that dice or people can be inherently lucky, i.e. likely to produce favorable random results, which is nonsense. "Luck" only exists after the fact, as a value judgement placed on some result by observers.

Alright then.

However, one more question I will pose, for some, this whole "luck" thing is just MORE FUN, now is it just me, or is it more irrational to not have as much fun as you can while playing a game, because part of it is being irrational, even though there is no real harm in doing so? (I personally doubt a magical world view, is harmful at all, so long as it's not getting in the way of a person's function in their society. But that's a topic for another thread.)

Smittaugh
2008-10-12, 06:44 PM
This thread makes me laugh. I'm talking epic LULZ. People who routinely get together in small groups to pretend they're elves are being holier-than-thou about other people's silly fun.

Have a coke and a smile. Sure, burning a paper dice in effigy doesn't work, nor does putting your dice in the freezer, but it's fun. I retire a die for the night if it falls on the floor. I won't wear a certain shirt to gaming anymore because the last two characters I've had die met their end while I was wearing that shirt. I keep a pile of 20s and choose one to roll at random because if I favor one die over the others, I fail. I know this is all a pile of troll crap, but go away, I'm having fun. You're getting your math homework in my hobby.

Return of Lanky
2008-10-12, 06:53 PM
We know the truth, Tsotha-lanti. It's okay. We have support groups.

It's not your fault if Lady Luck chooses to ill-favour your dice. Offer up a sacrifice to her. Take your favourite chargen set of dice, your favourite 4d6, and donate them to some newbie gamer. Mme Fortune will see your good deed and smile on you.

Don't forget to chant "Yab Shaggur Cthulhu" thrice and drink a pint of blood afterwards. The Elder Gods are fickle and cruel, and brook no favour towards other deities without acknowledgement.

Doomsy
2008-10-12, 07:26 PM
All of my GMing dice thirst for PC blood. I am not lying. They are murderous little buggers and at least once have conspired through highly unlikely high and low rolls to kill a PC by accidental critical damage.

Never ever try to swing from a chandelier in my group. Just don't. They still tell horror stories about that one.

Return of Lanky
2008-10-12, 07:31 PM
My PCs have a similar taboo about handling Nitro in any wild-west game with rules about mishandling.

Zocelot
2008-10-12, 08:01 PM
My d12 doesn't roll over 5 when I'm just rolling it, , when the roll doesn't affect much, or when a PC uses it. However, it will slaughter PCs mercilessly. One of the funnest things I can do (for me) is to throw greataxe wielding creatures at the PCs.

Next campaign I'm going to be playing, so I'm wondering if the luck comes from me using it, or the DM using it.

Tsotha-lanti
2008-10-13, 01:08 AM
Don't forget to chant "Yab Shaggur Cthulhu" thrice and drink a pint of blood afterwards. The Elder Gods are fickle and cruel, and brook no favour towards other deities without acknowledgement.

I could barely stomach this "luck" business, but now you're implying that Cthulhu is an Elder God?

The nerdfight is on, sucker.

Vossik
2008-10-13, 01:18 AM
I am the cause of unlucky dice apparently. I tried to get a campaign going in real life. I was a ranger... Lets just say 7 natural 1s in a single fight did not do the group any good... The fact that I put both the cleric and the paladin into the negative hit points basically ended the campaign with everyone cussing and talking about how much bs that was.

Lord Herman
2008-10-13, 02:08 AM
I am the cause of unlucky dice apparently. I tried to get a campaign going in real life. I was a ranger... Lets just say 7 natural 1s in a single fight did not do the group any good... The fact that I put both the cleric and the paladin into the negative hit points basically ended the campaign with everyone cussing and talking about how much bs that was.

Did the DM touch them? You might be dealing with the Curse of the DM. If a player's dice are touched by a DM, those dice are cursed to roll poorly.

JaxGaret
2008-10-13, 02:15 AM
Dice don't have luck. Most dice are imperfectly manufactured, and thus are more likely to roll one thing than another.

People, however, do have "luck".


"Luck" is a collection of superstitions and logical errors like selective thinking, retrospective falsification, selection bias, and availability error. (See here (http://www.skepdic.com/tilogic.html).)


That is to say, everyone knows that even educated people can be illogical and superstitious. Very true.

No, "luck" is commonly a superstition or logical error, but not always. Sometimes it is a skill.

As a certified Dice Jesus, I can attest to it, and I am as much a skeptic as anyone.

SoD
2008-10-13, 02:23 AM
No, "luck" is commonly a superstition or logical error, but not always. Sometimes it is a skill.

Really? Man, I'm taking a level in rogue and maxing it out next time I level up!

LotharBot
2008-10-13, 09:59 AM
I have a brushed steel d6 that I've been using for my 4e cleric's "healing word" bonus hp. The first five rolls were all 6's, and I've tended to get a fair number of 6's since then. Past performance does not guarantee future success, however.

I don't have any "luck" superstitions, though I do like rolling dice, so I'll often use "dice karma" as an excuse to roll. One of my favorites is to roll out all my dice until they show 3's. Not 1's, not the highest number on the die, but 3's. It's my way of mocking the ritual roll-out while still having the fun of the ritual.

Mr.Bookworm
2008-10-13, 10:05 AM
Really? Man, I'm taking a level in rogue and maxing it out next time I level up!

Make sure to take max ranks in Fast Talk (DM), too. Go into Fortune's Friend and take all of the [Luck] feats while maxing Fast Talk (DM) and Luck.

If you are unable to do this, just cheat.