Belkar vs. Bozzak and Crystal

[pendell]

Here I was thinking that 2 high-level rogues would be a match for solo Belkar. It doesn't seem to be. He appears to have the situation well in hand.

Thoughts? How does this match game out now?

My thought is Bozzak and Crystal can improve their situation by disengaging from melee and playing hide 'n go seek with Belkar as Belkar earlier did with Miko. They have much better concealment and spot checks than he does, I'm sure.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

[Optimystik]

My thought is Bozzak and Crystal can improve their situation by disengaging from melee and playing hide 'n go seek with Belkar as Belkar earlier did with Miko. They have much better concealment and spot checks than he does, I'm sure.


Disengaging would be counter to Bozzok's interests, since the whole point in bringing the entire TG to Pete's house was to prevent the characters' escape - they have no reason to hang out in the house once Bozzok and Crystal take to the shadows.

[de-trick]

its the +1 bonus for being small that is making belkar win, just my opinion

[Optimystik]

its the +1 bonus for being small that is making belkar win, just my opinion

Not to mention that shield he grabbed, and the fact that he hasn't attacked since picking it up could indicate he is using a total defense action instead (+4 to AC).

[David Argall]

its the +1 bonus for being small that is making belkar win, just my opinion

It's the plot bonus that helps Belkar. In a real [to the extent D&D can be deemed real] combat in this situation, Belkar is at a serious disadvantage unless he can drop one rogue fast, or avoid sneak attack situations.

[Captain Six]

He could run away, his barbarian level would make his speed equal to the rogues. There's nothing left to fight about now that Haley is safe(ish) although that is a very sensible thing for someone like Belkar to think of. With his grabbing of the shield he's already being a lot more defensive than usual; that (basically) halves his attack power. Who knows what he's got planned, though for the first time I think he does actually have something in mind.

[tenguro]

running away is not Belkars way to go. It's Roy's.

[Optimystik]

running away is not Belkars way to go. It's Roy's.

Not (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0348.html) always (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0281.html)...

[kerberos]

Not (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0348.html) always (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0281.html)...

First situation he's under the MOJ preventing him from actually fighting. The second is not running away, it's fighting a mobile battle.

[Suvar]

Now that Haley is safe, this should be a cakewalk for the Belkster. He could play this one of two ways: Keep fighting defensively with the shield and wear Crystal down before taking on Bozzok (kind of lame for him) or drop the shield and go full auto on Crystal (probably dropping her VERY fast, meaning no sneak attacks for Bozzok).

If Belkar could match Miko, he can easily take these two punks.

[Optimystik]

First situation he's under the MOJ preventing him from actually fighting.

True, but nothing forced him to run away from Elan either.


The second is not running away, it's fighting a mobile battle.

He wasn't fighting a battle at all at that point really, just stringing Miko along to goad her into power loss.

Third instance: running from the MitD.


If Belkar could match Miko, he can easily take these two punks.

While I agree with the latter part of this statement, he didn't match Miko head-on. He had to rely on trickery, which is much more effective against a paladin-monk than two rogues.

[kerberos]

True, but nothing forced him to run away from Elan either.
I supose he could have stayed where he was and have holes poked in him, but that doesn't strike me as an attractive option.

He wasn't fighting a battle at all at that point really, just stringing Miko along to goad her into power loss.
Still not running away.


Third instance: running from the MitD.
Against an enemy he couldn't even hurt. I don't think that disproves that Belkar is not naturally inclined towards retreat. He'll do it when he has no other options, but it seems to be his last resort.

[Optimystik]

I supose he could have stayed where he was and have holes poked in him, but that doesn't strike me as an attractive option.

And Elan would have let this happen?


Still not running away.

Not standing to fight = running away. I never said fear was his motivation.


Against an enemy he couldn't even hurt. I don't think that disproves that Belkar is not naturally inclined towards retreat. He'll do it when he has no other options, but it seems to be his last resort.

How does that make him different from Roy? It's as much a last resort for him as it is for Belkar.

[kerberos]

And Elan would have let this happen?
I'm sure Elan would have done his very best to prevent this. You see my point?


Not standing to fight = running away. I never said fear was his motivation.
He wasn't trying to escape, in other words his only running away from a place not from the fight. Debating whether that technically amounts to running away or moving the fight is rather pointless, because in this case we're talking about running away from the actual fight.


How does that make him different from Roy? It's as much a last resort for him as it is for Belkar.
I've actually never said anything about Roy. However there is a difference in that Belkar enjoys fighting, even very challenging and dangerous fights. Roy in my opinion fights more for a external reason. Having achieved his objective he would probably be more likely to retreat.

[Flame of Anor]

Notice that big wound Belkar did to Crystal in the first round. Here are the ways the battle could go, listed in order of likelihood as I see it.

1) Belkar kills Crystal. Bozzok kills Belkar. Haley would go back for him, but she's at about 0 hp, and since Celia is calling the shots, they run away. Bozzok gets rid of Belkar's body, therefore no rez.

2) Belkar kills Crystal. Belkar gets away, perhaps having killed Bozzok. Probably rejoins Haley and Celia.

3) Belkar kills nobody; Bozzok and Crystal kill him. See #1 for results.

4) V shows up and kills everyone. Has a fit of remorse and kills everyone else. Has another fit of remorse, gains ultimate arcane power, kills Xykon and the Snarl, and dies.

5) Thog, Redcloak, Hinjo, and Lord Tyrinar turn up and form a barbershop quartet.

6) V is female and Sabine is not a succubus.

7) ????

8) PROFIT!!!

[Optimystik]

I've actually never said anything about Roy.

You didn't, tenguro did. You know, the person I was responding to initially?

[Limos]

Belkar only had to deal with Two flanked attacks, and he was fighting defensively and had a shield and small size. I think that was enough to deal with the flanking.

Bozzok's first attack was a Power attack, and Belkar wasn't flanked. So that had a lot of penalties to hit and Bozzok didn't stand a chance.

Crystal's second attack also wasn't a flank and Belkar was still fighting defensively. So there was no way that was getting through.

Now Bozzok and Crystal are both on one side of Belkar, so no more flanking for them. Without their sneak attacks they don't stand much chance of hitting him as long as he fights defensively.

I think next strip Mr. Scruffy will latch on to Crystal's face and distract her. Then Belkar will stab Bozzok several times for lots of damage.

Bozzok will go on the defensive and then Belkar will make a run for it.

EDIT: Also you have to take into account that the danger has shifted for Celia. Before this point she was pretty much guarenteed to get stomped if she went on the offensive. But right now all of the incidental Guild members have been slaughtered or misplaced, and Bozzok and Crystal are distracted fighting Belkar. If Celia tosses a couple Lightning bolts to Bozzok, at least long enough to distract him, then Belkar can take out Crystal in one round and then engage Bozzok alone. Without his Sneak attacks and with Belkar having stolen his shield I don't see Bozzok standing much of a chance. He might get in a few hits but in the end a lone rogue doesn't stand a chance against a Ranger/Barbarian.

[Assassin89]

If Mr. Scruffy does get involved this could happen:
1) Mr. Scruffy lands on Crystal's face
2) Bozzok attacks Mr. Scruffy
3) Mr. Scruffy evades the attack, leaving Crystal to face the full force of Bozzok's attack
4) Bozzok kills Crystal and might level up.
5) Belkar kills Bozzok and levels up
Or substitute Crystal with Bozzok and vice versa

[Raging Gene Ray]

1) Mr. Scruffy lands on Crystal's face
2) Bozzok attacks Mr. Scruffy
3) Mr. Scruffy evades the attack, leaving Crystal to face the full force of Bozzok's attack

Can you do that according to D&D rules, or is that just if you're using the Three Stooges variant rules?

[Limos]

Can you do that according to D&D rules, or is that just if you're using the Three Stooges variant rules?

It's a Class feature for LOLcats. At level 12 they get Improved Uncanny Stooge

[Optimystik]

Uncanny Stooge

Am I the only one that sees the redundancy?

[Assassin89]

If Mr. Scruffy does not get involved, Belkar could use Crystal as a improvised shield and Bozzok would impale/kill Crystal in order to injure Belkar

[shadowdemon_lord]

I think Belkar is going to kill/force both to run. I mean really, once he takes out Crystal (the obvious target as Belkar not only gets the full strength of his favored enemy bonus against her, but she also has fewer HP, and likely a worse AC so he can put a bit more into power attack) Bozzok is doomed. At this point, he can go get the help of the CoL (as the CoL wont be in danger of getting one rounded by flanking rogue death) and have him heal him if he really needs it. I think I might need to reiterate this point again, high level fighter types do huge amounts of damage, even fighting defensively and with no off hand weapon as Belkar is right now he should still be able to dish out a dead minimum of 20ish a hit assuming he drops nothing into power attack against Crystal. That combined with full attacks means 40-60 a round, rogues really don't have many HP's, Crystal likely has HP's no higher then 120 (and this would be pretty damn high for a 12-13th level rogue), and the Belkster has already hit her for probably a good 30-40 HP's. This leaves her with a maximum of about 90 HP's left and more like 70-80. Belkar can do that much damage in two rounds without even trying.

Couple this with his "delayed bout of awesome" which means that his die rolls will be pretty damn high and he might even land a crit. Once Bozzok has no flanking partner, his damage output is going to be a joke. Also, it seems very unlikely that Bozzok will land more then one sneak attack shot a round, and it's likely that Crystal will land none. Even assuming Belkar takes a hundred points of damage in the next two rounds, he's still going to win due to having the CoL in the other room. A more likely scenario as I see it is that Belkar opens up a can of whoopass on Cryatsl next round, and she retreats. Bozzok might stick around for a round before he realizes he can't win and also retreats.

[Fish]

I'm not going to analyze this strategically: I'm going to analyze it from a story perspective.

If Belkar can handle Crystal and Bozzok simultaneously, he's much much more powerful than Haley, who attempted the very same thing. Therefore, once Belkar finds he is Haley's unquestionable superior, he has no further in-story reason to continue to take Haley's orders. No reason, in short (ha!) not to kill her, recent "character development" notwithstanding.

So I highly doubt that Belkar will pull this off entirely on his own, because it sets up a very divisive story element if they win.

What I predict instead is that Celia, Cleric of Loki, Haley, Durkon and Crew, or ... heck, just about anybody else other than Mr. Scruffy ... will come in with the assist.

[Zevox]

If Belkar can handle Crystal and Bozzok simultaneously, he's much much more powerful than Haley, who attempted the very same thing.
Er, no she didn't. She got caught, unarmed, between the two of them, and relied on the fact that she thought she was immune to Bozzok's sneak attacks to save her (in no small part because there wasn't much else she could do, being surprised and unarmed). She was wrong, and thus got into her current situation. That's not trying to "handle" both of them simultaneously, that's being in a badly disadvantageous situation and having your one means of defense left fail you.

In any event, Belkar has always been Haley's superior as far as combat goes. She's an archer Rogue, he's a melee warrior, and he's almost always near her. If they were ever to get in a fight, he'd win. That's likely why he always felt he could get away with more around her than he could around Roy, who actually is probably more powerful than Belkar.

Zevox

[Limos]

A couple things that can be assumed, and you should all stop bothering with.

The Cleric of Loki is no longer in the other room. He has left the house and is currently headed out of the city. We can safely assume that he is no longer involved in the encounter.

Haley faced Bozzok while unarmed. As a Rogue she is already weaker than Belkar. She had no chance of winning that. If Belkar is able to fight them both that won't be random story driven overepowering. Belkar is a combat oriented PC. Haley was an unarmed Skill oriented class. Belkar logically could, and should, be able to hold off two rogues, even if one is several levels above him.

Think of it this way, Haley and Crystal are basic analogues of one another. Haley went down with one Sneak Attack by Bozzok. Crystal has already taken a two hit bull rush from Belkar. One more attack combination should be enough to finish her, especially if he rages.

Without flanking support Bozzok won't have any sneak attacks. Which means his damage output will be pathetic and Belkar will walk all over him.

So here's what I think happens next strip.

1. Belkar multi-stabs Crystal, she falls into Negative Hitpoints and can basically be considered out of the battle.
2. Bozzok gets one successful hit on Belkar, but doesn't get Sneak Attack damage.
3. Belkar and Bozzok exchange a couple blows.
4. Bozzok is driven on to the defensive.
5. Bozzok makes a break for it.
5. Celia, having reentered the room after stashing Haley hits him with a Lightning bolt.
6. Belkar guts Bozzok and does a merry jig on his entrails.

[Optimystik]

5. Celia, having reentered the room after stashing Haley hits him with a Lightning bolt.

Not likely given his rogue level.

[Duaneyo1]

I know this has been said before, but right now, Belkar has this situation well in hand. He is not flanked by Crystal or Bozzak , so for at least the next round, there is no chance of him being sneak attacked. That is going to give him at least a round to wail on Crystal. Who probably only had 50-60 hp's before she was injured. During this time he can take the unmodified attacks from Bozzak without a problem. Belkar will drop Crystal in 1-2 rounds and Bozzak, having lost all tactical advantages will be looking for a chance to run away.

[Fish]

Er, no she didn't.
It doesn't matter what the strategic situation is, or was. What I'm talking about are how the characters will perceive it.

Frankly, it's useless to argue about the tactics here. The person who wins is the one Rich wants to win. Sneak attacks, flanking, hit dice: throw all that out. This is a STORY.

If Belkar defeats Crystal and Bozzok single-handedly, how do you think he's going to treat Haley? As a character, as a person. Not as a bundle of stats on a battle grid.

If Belkar wins single-handedly, I feel that would act like a self-satisfied little schmuck. I fear he would start to treat Haley like "I could kill you any time I wanted." He wouldn't feel as if he had to obey her. That's not a good story dynamic; that's why I say it won't happen.

So I say again: because it would too greatly change the character dynamic, I don't think Belkar is going to win All By Himself. There will be some story twist, some helpful die roll, some last-minute surprise.

I can live with Belkar saying, "I pulled your bacon out of the fire. We're even!" That'll probably happen. Belkar saying, "I could kill both of you two useless idiots and go my own way now" is a bit much.

* The exception here is that there's a possibility that Belkar will win single-handedly simply so he can take the opportunity NOT to gloat — as V took the opportunity NOT to say "I told you so."

[Limos]

It doesn't matter what the strategic situation is, or was. What I'm talking about are how the characters will perceive it.

Frankly, it's useless to argue about the tactics here. The person who wins is the one Rich wants to win. Sneak attacks, flanking, hit dice: throw all that out. This is a STORY.

If Belkar defeats Crystal and Bozzok single-handedly, how do you think he's going to treat Haley? As a character, as a person. Not as a bundle of stats on a battle grid.

If Belkar wins single-handedly, I feel that would act like a self-satisfied little schmuck. I fear he would start to treat Haley like "I could kill you any time I wanted." He wouldn't feel as if he had to obey her. That's not a good story dynamic; that's why I say it won't happen.

So I say again: because it would too greatly change the character dynamic, I don't think Belkar is going to win All By Himself. There will be some story twist, some helpful die roll, some last-minute surprise.

I can live with Belkar saying, "I pulled your bacon out of the fire. We're even!" That'll probably happen. Belkar saying, "I could kill both of you two useless idiots and go my own way now" is a bit much.

* The exception here is that there's a possibility that Belkar will win single-handedly simply so he can take the opportunity NOT to gloat — as V took the opportunity NOT to say "I told you so."


Ah, Yes. But if you haven't noticed Belkar has decided to Play the Game. As long as they are allies they are valuable to Belkar and he will fake character growth to keep them as allies.

Killing them both would be a very "sit on the couch and eat cheetos" mentality. That's what Belkar would have done, and probably what he would rather do. But in order to fake character growth and thus ingratiate himself with the rest of his party.

I think Belkar will gloat, but only on the "I'm arguably more loyal than you" level.

[TheSummoner]

I'm sure he'll also get some "If it wasn't for me, you'd be dead" in there as well.

[Zevox]

It doesn't matter what the strategic situation is, or was. What I'm talking about are how the characters will perceive it.
And I feel you're fundamentally misinterpreting how that will work. Starting with your complete rejection of the combat/strategic situations - that is a part of how the characters perceive things in the OotS. They exist in a world where D&D rules apply. They know this. They perceive, think, and act accordingly. You seem to be ignoring that entirely.


If Belkar defeats Crystal and Bozzok single-handedly, how do you think he's going to treat Haley?
No different than he has thus far. He's always known he was more powerful than she was. Saving her from a pair of, as he put it, "glorified pickpockets" (which is also more or less what Haley is, and he surely knows that, too) is not going to change that in any way.


If Belkar wins single-handedly, I feel that would act like a self-satisfied little schmuck. I fear he would start to treat Haley like "I could kill you any time I wanted." He wouldn't feel as if he had to obey her.
Belkar could have acted like that at any time once Roy was out of the picture and they were out of Azure City. Or during that brief time without Roy during the bandit incident. And actually, to a degree, he did. Killing that Gnome, a Goblin guard they were trying to sneak past, and the Oracle when he knew she wasn't likely to be happy about any of that, for instance. Or setting a tent on fire way back when. He has never felt as if he has to obey Haley - the only character who has ever exercised that kind of authority over him is Roy. And maybe Shojo/Hinjo via the Mark.

You seem to be forgetting that Belkar doesn't come along with the Order because he for some reason has to. He's not going to strike out on his own just because no one can stop him - hell, if he had ever wanted to leave, Roy would probably have let him go anyway. Remaining with the Order allows him to do what he most enjoys - kill things without consequences. And given what he knows about the group's goals now, he knows that staying with them is going to lead to even more challenging, and thus enjoyable, kills. And the odds of him getting back together with the rest of the Order if he just goes off on his own are slim to none. He has good reason to stick with Haley which has nothing to do with her authority as second-in-command of the Order, which he has never respected to begin with.

Zevox

[rxmd]

running away is not Belkars way to go.
OOTS practically started off (http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0005.html) with running away.. (I'll grant you that he doesn't look happy doing it, nor does anyone else, and that he starts fighting in the same strip, just like everyone else. :smalltongue:)


I supose he could have stayed where he was and have holes poked in him, but that doesn't strike me as an attractive option.
Ergo, he runs away instead. Your point being?

[DragoonKain]

I wonder how no one realizes that Belkar's improved survivability may just be stemming from the fact that he's cheating now. 'Nudging die rolls' indeed.

[Zevox]

I wonder how no one realizes that Belkar's improved survivability may just be stemming from the fact that he's cheating now. 'Nudging die rolls' indeed.
...you do realize that the cheating Shojo was referring to was breaking social rules, right? You know, the way Shojo used to when he faked senility and went around ignoring the laws of his own city when they got in the way of its greater good? Belkar can't actually cheat at D&D, since he's not actually playing a game of D&D, but living in a world where its rules apply in the same manner as the laws of physics.

Zevox

[kerberos]

Ergo, he runs away instead. Your point being?
My point being, as I already explained, that running away seems to be something he normally does only when he has absolutely no other options.

[John Campbell]

You seem to be forgetting that Belkar doesn't come along with the Order because he for some reason has to. He's not going to strike out on his own just because no one can stop him - hell, if he had ever wanted to leave, Roy would probably have let him go anyway, and certainly he could have left Azure City on his own had he wanted to as well (it would even have been more logical for him to walk away then, since staying there meant he was stuck in a place where he couldn't harm any living being for fear of activating his Mark).
I'm not disagreeing with this in general, but remember that one of the conditions on Belkar's Mark was that he had to stay within a mile of Roy - thus his accompanying Haley on the corpse-retrieval mission in the first place.

[Zevox]

I'm not disagreeing with this in general, but remember that one of the conditions on Belkar's Mark was that he had to stay within a mile of Roy - thus his accompanying Haley on the corpse-retrieval mission in the first place.
Ah, true, I'd forgotten that. So he couldn't have walked away after Azure City after all. Nevertheless, as I said, he does have plenty of reason to stick around of his own. It's not like he had the Mark forcing him to stick around throughout the whole story, after all. (That's not necessarily directed at you John, just repeating my point in general.)

Zevox

[lord_khaine]

all these things aside, a standard lv 14 ranger going into melee with a lv 14 and a lv 18 rogue would be toast in a round or 2, im looking forward to see what explanation the giant cooks up for letting Belkar survive this.

[Ossian]

Well...

Belkar has a level of Barbarian, and that rage could possibly tip the scale...still, there needs to be a good reason for a rage, and as it happens, when you kick the dog just a alittle bit too hard...or should I say the cat here? Maybe "rage" isn't sufficient rules wise, but the Giant might just as well not give a damn about them and go for a pure berserker "YOU.....KILLED.....MY....CAAAAAAAT" rage ;-)

[Twilight Jack]

Look, this has been done before in the main thread, but I'd like to revisit it here.

Let us assume that Bozzok is a 17th level rogue. The bastard sword suggests a fighter dip, but it's one level at most. More likely, he just spared a couple of feats for EWP and Power Attack. So he's either Rogue17 or Rogue17/Fighter1. Anymore than that and he's edging up a bit too far on Epic levels for my credulity. I'm not giving him the fighter level, since it takes some of the sting out of Belkar's observation that he's a glorified pickpocket.

So, his base attack bonus is a mighty +12. As a half-orc, he's got a +2 to Strength, which is probably his second best stat. Let's call his initial Strength a 14, which is racially modified to 16. Assuming he's split his Ability Score increases between Strength and Dexterity, that modifies him to 18. We'll give him gauntlets of ogre power to round things out. So 20. As a 17th level character, let's give him +4 enhancements on both his weapon and shield. It all comes out to +12+5+4=+21/+16/+11 to-hit on a full attack action. Flanking gives him an additional +2, so he's cruising at +23 at the very most. It's probably less, as I've been pretty generous. Given that he drops his shield the moment Belkar enters the picture, it's fair to say he's using Power Attack, at least on his first swing. And in that round, he's not flanking.

Belkar is small sized, giving him a +1. His Dexterity is a 16, bare minimum (probably higher), and I'll give him a +3 chain shirt to cover his armor needs. He has demonstrated that he possesses Mobility, so that means he's got Dodge as well. Despite the fact that the OotS has been stated by The Giant as being somewhat low on magic items, it nevertheless stands to reason that he's got at least +2 more in miscellaneous magicky bonuses to his AC. That puts his base AC at 24, with Dodge, before taking any other precautions.

On his first swing, Bozzok is probably relying on a hefty bit of Power Attack, hoping to deal with the interloper as quickly as possible to get on with killing Haley before anything else goes wrong. It would be a rational assumption that Belkar is a rogue, so he can afford it, right? He ditches 9 points of attack, leaving him with a +12 to hit. He misses on an average roll.

That round, Belkar picks up Bozzok's buckler. Since we've assigned it the same enhancement bonus as the bastard sword, that pumps another +5 into his AC, for a 29 against Bozzok. He proceeds to fight defensively from that point on, for a 31 total (I'd imagine that Belkar has 5+ ranks in Tumble, so I'm inclined to say 32). If Bozzok uses any Power Attack at all, he's still needing a better than average roll on his first swing in order to connect. His iterative attacks require even better luck.

Now, I admit that I've plucked some of these numbers out of mid-air. My purpose is not to provide a pseudo-canon account of the fight. I'm just pointing out that the scenario is very plausible within the mechanics, without requiring Bozzok to roll all 1s.

[Scarlet Knight]

Can you do that according to D&D rules, or is that just if you're using the Three Stooges variant rules?

Bozzok: "Ow! Ow ! Get it off!

Crystal: "Hold still ! *Bonk*

Bozzok: Ow! You numbskull *Crunch!*

Crystal: Owowowowow!

Belkar: Oh, wiseguys,eh! *smack-smack*

Bozzok & Crystal: Ow!

Belkar : Nyuk ! Nyuk!
:smallbiggrin:

[David Argall]

Belkar is small sized, giving him a +1. His Dexterity is a 16, bare minimum (probably higher), and I'll give him a +3 chain shirt to cover his armor needs. He has demonstrated that he possesses Mobility, so that means he's got Dodge as well. Despite the fact that the OotS has been stated by The Giant as being somewhat low on magic items, it nevertheless stands to reason that he's got at least +2 more in miscellaneous magicky bonuses to his AC. That puts his base AC at 24, with Dodge, before taking any other precautions.

Go back to 611. Belkar is being hit by low level rogues. +2 for flank, give them +2 for str, and a BAB that can't be better than +3. They both hit. You are putting Bozzak at +23, or +14 or more vs the low levels. [And Bozzak would have more than you credit him. A Belt of Giant Strength+4 is an obvious starter.] At +14, you are saying the wimps rolled 18-20, and Bozzak rolled 1-3. That happens 27 times out of 8000 rolls. 1/4 of 1%. And we have not added in Crystal's miss. You see those sort of numbers and you are asking to look at those dice.
No, Belkar has a thick coat of plot armor on.

[Limos]

Go back to 611. Belkar is being hit by low level rogues. +2 for flank, give them +2 for str, and a BAB that can't be better than +3. They both hit. You are putting Bozzak at +23, or +14 or more vs the low levels. [And Bozzak would have more than you credit him. A Belt of Giant Strength+4 is an obvious starter.] At +14, you are saying the wimps rolled 18-20, and Bozzak rolled 1-3. That happens 27 times out of 8000 rolls. 1/4 of 1%. And we have not added in Crystal's miss. You see those sort of numbers and you are asking to look at those dice.
No, Belkar has a thick coat of plot armor on.

Unless that shield he picked up is enchanted with Fortification. Which would make him immune to Sneak attacks and cancel out the bonus Bozzok and Crystal got from flanking him.

It would be a reasonable assumption that Bozzok would want a shield of Fortification, what with being the leader in a guild filled with rogues who have no compunction about killing one another to rise in status.

Also Belkar was fighting offensively in the basement. Crazy flips and Cleaves and such. That must have severaly downed his AC.

[Twilight Jack]

Go back to 611. Belkar is being hit by low level rogues. +2 for flank, give them +2 for str, and a BAB that can't be better than +3. They both hit. You are putting Bozzak at +23, or +14 or more vs the low levels. [And Bozzak would have more than you credit him. A Belt of Giant Strength+4 is an obvious starter.] At +14, you are saying the wimps rolled 18-20, and Bozzak rolled 1-3. That happens 27 times out of 8000 rolls. 1/4 of 1%. And we have not added in Crystal's miss. You see those sort of numbers and you are asking to look at those dice.
No, Belkar has a thick coat of plot armor on.

Well, sure he does. It's a story, not a game. Rich doesn't whip out a trusty d20 and start rolling whenever a combat happens. In every circumstance, a hit or miss is utterly determined by the whims of the author. But Rich has shown a certain desire throughout the run of the comic to at least keep things plausible.

That said, I'd like to question some of your assertions.

If Belkar is 13th level (a good baseline assumption for any member of the Order; 14th is the ceiling), then his highest possible level in Barbarian is 4. We know that because he has the Ranger 9 ability of Evasion. That means he doesn't have improved uncanny dodge.

Now, let us assume that the low-level rogues that managed to hit him are 4th level (you seem to). That gives them a BAB of +3. We'll deal with them seperately. First, the human: let's give him Str14, a masterwork longsword, and a flanking bonus. That's +8 to hit Belkar's AC of 23 (despite uncanny dodge, Belkar can't name a target for his Dodge feat if he doesn't see him). He needs a 15. Not easy, but hardly outside the realm of possibility. It's a 30% chance that he got lucky and nailed the Belkster.

Next, the halfling: Dex 18 (15 base, +2 for halfling, +1 for 4th level - I'm assuming a basic PC array), +1 for small size, masterwork dagger, and Weapon Finesse. He's flanking too, for a total of +11 to hit. He's got it on a 12 or better, which is a 45% chance.

The odds of them both hitting in the same round? Thirteen-point-five percent. Not a great chance, but hey, it happens. It isn't nearly the statistical nightmare you're asserting. Roll that one round of combat over and over, it'll work out just like that roughly every seven times.

Back to Bozzok, I really don't see any strong justification for an assumption that he's rocking a belt of giant strength of any level. Despite his heritage and choice of weapon, he's still a rogue. Hell, I only threw in the gauntlets to provide a benefit of the doubt to him. But even with another +2 to Strength, it doesn't change the numbers much. In the first round, Bozzok probably Power Attacked for a hefty sum. He underestimated Belkar's AC and misses on the average roll. On the second round of fighting, he tones down the Power Attack, but Belkar compensates by picking up an enchanted shield and fighting defensively. Again, on an average roll, Bozzok misses on his first attack, and needs successively better rolls to have any chance of landing his other ones.

Crystal has a lower attack bonus than Bozzok. The first swing that she took on him was while she was prone (-4), and the second round of fighting saw Belkar with the same defensive bonuses that managed to thwart Bozzok. If he's missing, she's probably not doing any better.

Now, of course, Belkar has the power of plot on his side, because Rich gets to decide who rolls pretty well (the low-level rogues), and who rolls along the averages (Bozzok and Crystal, apparently).

But your assertion that the low-level boys could only hit on 18-20 and Bozzok could only miss on 1-3 is a bit silly. The circumstances of the two combats were different.

[MarkyMark]

So, his base attack bonus is a mighty +12. As a half-orc, he's got a +2 to Strength, which is probably his second best stat. Let's call his initial Strength a 14, which is racially modified to 16. Assuming he's split his Ability Score increases between Strength and Dexterity, that modifies him to 18. We'll give him gauntlets of ogre power to round things out. So 20. As a 17th level character, let's give him +4 enhancements on both his weapon and shield. It all comes out to +12+5+4=+21/+16/+11 to-hit on a full attack action. Flanking gives him an additional +2, so he's cruising at +23 at the very most.

And why wouldn't Belkar have Crystal on his flank and be facing Bozzok? Flank bonus doesn't help Crystal much.

If Belkar can get a full round, I reckon Crystal is going down. But I suspect a wounded Haley after a potion will take her on (CATFIGHT!!!!) and that leaves Belkster amd Bozzok.

Well, more attacks and both walloping each other, Belkar wins. Not easily, not well, but wins. Even if it's only "I have more HP".

[MarkyMark]

all these things aside, a standard lv 14 ranger going into melee with a lv 14 and a lv 18 rogue would be toast in a round or 2, im looking forward to see what explanation the giant cooks up for letting Belkar survive this.

Not so quick.

The fighter gets more attacks than either of the two rogues, but the two rogues add up to more in total.

However, neither will have upped strength and constitution as much (if any) because they still have to sneak etc.

And if neither can get flanking bonuses, they are severely down on power.

So they hit more often and have more attacks, but, unlike a four-armed monster wielding two weapons, they don't share HP. So if they get to half hitpoints (or earlier) then one of them is out and their attacks per round drops dramatically.

Add in Belkar probably has "Human" as favoured enemy and one of them is human, Belkar IS gutting one of them. After that, Belkar may be hurt so it's now 50-50 or slightly against him (30-70) but it's not sure he's toast by a long shot.

If they get sneak attacks, yes, Belkar is shish kebab. Without, they likely win, but at great cost.

[Revelent]

If you look carefully in 611, in the only panel where Belkar is hit the caster, and maybe the rogue in the blue shirt are both presumably stealthed, which means that Belkar is flat-footed against them (nobody in the OoTS has a good spot check)

Not to mention Acid Arrow is a touch attack. Maybe this explains why he was getting hit.

Conversely, while Belkar doesn't have a good spot check he does have a good hide check. His first attack on Crystal could been as a charge in the surprise round.

Belkar vs Crystal/Bozzok is entirely a random fight anyway. They'll hit damn hard to due to sneak attack, but he only has to beat one of them to stop the flank(and thus the sneak attack).

[jamroar]

If Belkar rages, there's a chance

he drops dead anyway after successfully beating/routing Crystal and Bozzak in a close fight, when the loan of temporary hit points expire.

[Dr Legostar]

Belkar will find way to get Bozzak to run Crystal through, then he'll kill Bozzak and finish off Crystal while she's down. It has more style.

[Doug Lampert]

Go back to 611. Belkar is being hit by low level rogues. +2 for flank, give them +2 for str, and a BAB that can't be better than +3. They both hit. You are putting Bozzak at +23, or +14 or more vs the low levels. [And Bozzak would have more than you credit him. A Belt of Giant Strength+4 is an obvious starter.] At +14, you are saying the wimps rolled 18-20, and Bozzak rolled 1-3. That happens 27 times out of 8000 rolls. 1/4 of 1%. And we have not added in Crystal's miss. You see those sort of numbers and you are asking to look at those dice.
No, Belkar has a thick coat of plot armor on.

+2 for str?! You use that because of all the mid level halfling rogues that DON'T take weapon finesse, it's right up there with druids without natural spell as a "popular" option. Try +4 for dex. Then add in the master work weapon bonus, master work weapons are a TRIVIAL expense for NPCs of level 3+.

The Wimps attack bonus is at least 3 or so higher than you're giving them credit for, and several of them miss in the course of the battle, and Bozzak won't hit on a 4+ if he power attacks, and if he doesn't power attack then dropping the shield is senseless (ooo... two more damage... That's worth giving up +5 to AC for, NOT).

Three wimps hitting (one of them vs. touch AC) is perfectly reasonable vs. Belkar's AC given the number of attacks they got. Bozzack missing if he power attacks is also perfectly reasonable.

If Bozzack continues to miss a couple of more times now that he knows he needs to take this seriously by tumbling to a flank and taking his single shot without a power attack THEN you have a case (better of course would be for Crystal to Flank while going defensive and then Bozzak to full attack, but I'm not giving Crystal the brains to think of that).

[David Argall]

The Wimps attack bonus is at least 3 or so higher than you're giving them credit for,
Bozzak is 15+ levels higher than them. Do you really want to insist it is at all unreasonable for him to be +15 better to hit? It is much more likely he is
+20-25.


and several of them miss in the course of the battle,
Now this is possible, but the art says none of the non-flankers got off a swing. No swish or other such mark of a miss. They are shown as appearing out of the mist and Belkar then swings and kills.


and Bozzak won't hit on a 4+ if he power attacks,
Most power attackers spend a lot of time not power attacking. Let's look at some of the math. If Bozzak PAs for 12, he gains 24 damage if he hits, but he risks 31.5 sneak, 1d10+5 weapon, +9 strength & two handed =51+. If he hits on a 2, that is about 48 points a swing. Making that a 13 by PA and he averages 30 hp a swing. An obvious loser.
He can get a better result by PA for a lesser figure, but the point is that you don't try to PA something with decent armor. And Bozzak has seen Crystal miss. She could have rolled a one of course, but a sensible PAer is not going to PA in that situation unless he is about +40 to hit.
Oh yes, while the strip only shows the one swing, Bozzak was in position for a full round attack and would have 3 swings [maybe 4]. This makes PA even less of a good idea.


and if he doesn't power attack then dropping the shield is senseless (ooo... two more damage...
Actually that is almost certainly three or four. Not much difference, but a sign that you are trying to minimize Bozzak's abilities.


Three wimps hitting (one of them vs. touch AC) is perfectly reasonable vs. Belkar's AC given the number of attacks they got. Bozzack missing if he power attacks is also perfectly reasonable.
And only if. But the figures show that Bozzak would not PA.


If Bozzack continues to miss a couple of more times now that he knows he needs to take this seriously by tumbling to a flank
Bozzak is a very experienced rogue. He moves to the flank routinely and almost automatically. You are describing him as a newbie.


I'm not giving Crystal the brains to think of that).
Crystal is "real good at killing people." We can deem her an idiot savant. So in routine combat situations, she functions quite reasonably, or she would have never survived this long.

This is plot immunity, not D&D combat.

[MarkyMark]

Crystal is "real good at killing people." We can deem her an idiot savant. So in routine combat situations, she functions quite reasonably, or she would have never survived this long.

That's easy. Hold the blunt end, push pointy end into opponent until dead.

Crystal is terrible at combat. Look at her attempt to use Death Pickle Attack. How well do you think someone who comes up with that will manage in a fight against someone who is

a) aware of them
b) armed
c) as able of putting the pointy end in her as she is

?

Badly.

It's easy to kill 0 level NPCs. Especially if you get to 12th level or more just because someone else is out killing chimera.

[Koshiro]

Crystal is "real good at killing people." We can deem her an idiot savant. So in routine combat situations, she functions quite reasonably, or she would have never survived this long.

This is plot immunity, not D&D combat.
Crystal is now alone against Belkar. Poor her.

[FeAnPi]

Belkar: "Oh, funny: greenguy is gone, so let's start a chick-killing session, shall we?"
(drops the shield, whields both his blades)
Crystal: "What? You are defending no more against my deadly attacks? This is madness!"
Belkar: "Madness? This is... BEEELKAAAR!"
(impales her with both his blades)

[SinsI]

Nah, she should get ready to recieve some loving.

[Dr Legostar]

if blind pete's house is a rockin' don't come a knockin'?

[FeAnPi]

We'll see about that.

(soon, I hope: I dream of a double-issue comic, detailing both the battles, pheraps with a deus-V ex machina-teleport)

[evileeyore]

Nah, she should get ready to recieve some loving.

Blunt dagger loving.


the best kind. :smallwink:

[yanmaodao]

Bozzak is 15+ levels higher than them. Do you really want to insist it is at all unreasonable for him to be +15 better to hit? It is much more likely he is
+20-25.

Wasn't your previous assumption that the mid-level rogues are level 4? Or are you revising that assumption now? 15 levels higher is highly unlikely, and 15 "+" implies Epic level Bozzak. That's improbable.

Assuming level 4 for the mooks, level 17 for Bozzak, and 3/4 BAB progression... we don't get +15. Not by a long shot. Maybe with some magic items... but even then, Bozzak's STR bonus is not likely to much more than about +2 greater than the rogues' DEX bonus (for Weapon Finesse).

Also, your accounts of #611 and #613 are contradictory. Either we accept the art as-is, or we don't. If the strip only shows one swing, then there was only one swing, and given the context - dropping the shield, using both hands, half-orc with bastard sword, etc. - a Power Attack is a reasonable guess. Or, if we're going to abandon what the strip shows in favor of what probably happened between panels, then it's reasonable to say that those lower level mooks in fact made several attacks against Belkar that weren't shown.

[Tyrmatt]

Belkar: "Oh, funny: greenguy is gone, so let's start a chick-killing session, shall we?"
(drops the shield, whields both his blades)
Crystal: "What? You are defending no more against my deadly attacks? This is madness!"
Belkar: "Madness? This is... BEEELKAAAR!"
(impales her with both his blades)

This made me laugh more than it really should have.

[FeAnPi]

Obvious but still effective.

By the way, have you noticed how the Giant first creates... giantic (^_^) plots, apparently impossible to solve, and then solves them all in a few strips?

Let's hope he'll do this soon.

[ericgrau]

At equal level and no sneak attack nor death attack, Crystal doesn't even have a chance against Belkar mechanically. Plotwise, I dunno.

[David Argall]

Wasn't your previous assumption that the mid-level rogues are level 4?
I don't believe so. Probably somebody else's guess.
Given the speed at which Belkar kills them, level 4 seems quite high. The DMG gives the 4th level rogue 20 hp. That's a bit marginal to drop with Inflict Serious Wounds. If the artist is paying much attention to the difference between -1 and -10, 30 hp is a really good roll.
For Belkar too, 20, much less 30, is a pretty good hit. 1-3 dagger +3 weapon, +4 str, that's still a long way from 20 hp.



Assuming level 4 for the mooks, level 17 for Bozzak, and 3/4 BAB progression... we don't get +15. Not by a long shot. Maybe with some magic items... but even then, Bozzak's STR bonus is not likely to much more than about +2 greater than the rogues' DEX bonus (for Weapon Finesse).
+9 BAB, +2 Str, +4 magic weapon [+5, but MW is +1] and we have Bozzak at +15 over the 4th level. Add in that Bozzak may have other magic or feat and +15 is low. We are at least bordering on where Bozzak hits on a 2 unless they miss on a 19.


Also, your accounts of #611 and #613 are contradictory. Either we accept the art as-is, or we don't. If the strip only shows one swing, then there was only one swing, and given the context - dropping the shield, using both hands, half-orc with bastard sword, etc. - a Power Attack is a reasonable guess. Or, if we're going to abandon what the strip shows in favor of what probably happened between panels, then it's reasonable to say that those lower level mooks in fact made several attacks against Belkar that weren't shown.
The assertions have been that they MADE these attacks, not that it is reasonable to think they did, and that Bozzak USED a large dose of PA, not that it was reasonable to think he did. [And, as noted, Bozzak would not be using PA here. Against Haley, PA would be reasonable. Against Belkar, it is a loser.]
Now while it may be reasonable for there to be some missed attacks, it is not if we assume anything beyond a small number. 20s get rolled and the chance of one increases fast. And the chance that the two flankers would roll them while everybody else missed also is small. So either way, we find that Belkar's AC is nothing like the 30+ that some have suggested. He is likely in the low 20s. And that makes Bozzak almost an auto hit.

[Assassin89]

Now that Bozzok is out of the picture and focusing on Haley, we could see Crystal attempting to seduce Belkar in order to catch him off guard. "Screw the Halfling" indeed.
Bozzok is now at a defensive disadvantage without his shield, which should make killing him easier.

[GSFB]

The bottom line here is the two remaining guild members are going to die. Quickly but painfully. In like no more than 2 strips.

Belkar now has chickie poo alone, unable to flank, unable to sneak attack, unable to make a death attack, already down many hit points and hopelessly outclassed against a pure warrior in melee.

Haley will get the jump on Bozzak. She can't flank him, but she can still surprise him (correct me if I am wrong, but even at a lower level than he is, she can sneak attack with actual surprise). After all, he is running after two enemies with greater speed and thinks Haley is incapacitated and unarmed. She can sneak behind him (Celia can grab anything large and brown and fly around like she is still carrying Haley) and sneak attack with a new magic bow. And, Celia can still use lightning, even if Bozzak might evade, there is always the chance of a blown save. There is also no guarantee he has improved evasion (again, correct me if I am wrong, but isn't that simply one of several special abilities a rogue might choose?).

My prediction: Belkar takes down the tramp in one round, then turns around and chases after Bozzak. Haley double back and sneak attacks Bozzak. Celia blasts Bozzak with lightning. Belkar appears out of nowhere with a jump attack that eviscerates Bozzak (if he is even still breathing at this point).

Game.

Set.

Match.

Then Durkon, Elan, and an A.C. Wizard teleport in to "save the day." Elan makes a "shock face" and is speechless over Haley's hair. Hugs are had by all. Then they can finally get around to rezzing Roy... and it will be up to Roy to find a way to bring V back into the fold.

[Teron]

And why wouldn't Belkar have Crystal on his flank and be facing Bozzok? Flank bonus doesn't help Crystal much.
There's no facing in D&D. Characters on opposite sides of an opponent always get flanking bonuses unless something like the Improved Uncanny Dodge ability says otherwise.

Also, assassins get the same sneak attack progression as rogues (in fact, at several levels a rogue/assassin can have an extra damage die over a straight rogue), so Crystal should deal almost as much sneak attack damage as Bozzok, assuming she took rogue levels until she qualified for the prestige class (and I can't imagine why not).

[GSFB]

We are forgetting the wild card in all this...

Belkar left one minion alive and in love. She might come back in the next strip to fight with her one true love against her former employer.

[Assassin89]

We are forgetting the wild card in all this...

Belkar left one minion alive and in love. She might come back in the next strip to fight with her one true love lust against her former employer.

Although it would create interesting circumstances for a cat fight, Jenny may not appear. If she does, Belkar would try to get a two-for-one whore special.

[Vaarsuvius4181]

Here I was thinking that 2 high-level rogues would be a match for solo Belkar. It doesn't seem to be. He appears to have the situation well in hand.

Thoughts? How does this match game out now?

My thought is Bozzak and Crystal can improve their situation by disengaging from melee and playing hide 'n go seek with Belkar as Belkar earlier did with Miko. They have much better concealment and spot checks than he does, I'm sure.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

well, that battle is omniscent. its just kinda filler. plus, belkars been sick. he hasnt been using any healing potions, while haley has used them all up from fighting. so belkars probably pretty stocked up. and concealment, they might have bettr than him. spot, hell yes

[yanmaodao]

Seems a moot point now, now that Belkar is facing Crystal solo.

But nevertheless...


+9 BAB, +2 Str, +4 magic weapon [+5, but MW is +1] and we have Bozzak at +15 over the 4th level.

Out of the dozen or so enemies Belkar faces in 611, only one (the Half-Orc) carries a non-Finessable weapon, and being a Half-Orc, his STR is probably pretty generous. If we assume 16 STR for the Half-Orcs and 16 DEX for all the Rogues (a conservative estimate; at least half the Rogues probably have 18 DEX, especially that halfling), then Bozzok would need at least 20 STR (if not 22) to be +15. He could, but not likely, given that as a Rogue, he has a lot of other stats to worry about. Bozzok probably has good DEX, good INT, probably no penalties in either WIS or CHR if he's been a long-time Guild leader (and at least one of those two is probably fairly decent, in the 12-14 range), and given his melee bent, CON won't exactly be a dump stat either (probably no lower than 12).

I was under the impression we were talking innate character abilities only (given the initial wording), in which case I'd peg Bozzak at +12 BAB, +4 STR vs. +3 BAB, +3 DEX for a +10 advantage. Now, magical items on Bozzok's part upset this (as well as perhaps a Weapon Focus feat or something), but so do circumstantial factors the other way: the fact that all the Rogues in 611 got the +2 flanking bonus without Belkar having a countervailing shield bonus, the fact that Jenny's song gave them at least a +1 bonus to attack, the fact among the dozen at least some might have MW items, etc.


The assertions have been that they MADE these attacks, not that it is reasonable to think they did, and that Bozzak USED a large dose of PA, not that it was reasonable to think he did. [And, as noted, Bozzak would not be using PA here. Against Haley, PA would be reasonable. Against Belkar, it is a loser.]
Now while it may be reasonable for there to be some missed attacks, it is not if we assume anything beyond a small number. 20s get rolled and the chance of one increases fast. And the chance that the two flankers would roll them while everybody else missed also is small. So either way, we find that Belkar's AC is nothing like the 30+ that some have suggested. He is likely in the low 20s. And that makes Bozzak almost an auto hit.

Ignoring the semantic quibbles, note that Bozzok had no idea who Belkar was, and most likely assumed he was some other Rogue. He most likely did PA, though not necessarily a "large" dose - I'd guess a standard +/-3.

If the rogues couldn't hit Belkar on anything but a 20, the chances of the scenario in 611 happening aren't too bad. Basically, it's two guys rolling 20's and everyone else rolling non-20's. The argument here seems to be that "if Belkar can survive so long (about two rounds) against two high-level opponents, he shouldn't have gotten hit at all by those mooks! (But since he did, he couldn't)". If we give every one of those mooks an attack, and add a few off-screen or whatever, then the statistical mode occurs at Belkar getting hit either never or once, probably leaning toward once if the number of attacks > 10. All we need is one more attack to be made - the percentage is probably moderately low but not that low.


My prediction: Belkar takes down the tramp in one round, then turns around and chases after Bozzak.

This might happen, but I really think Crystal is Haley's and Haley's alone.


We are forgetting the wild card in all this...

Belkar left one minion alive and in love. She might come back in the next strip to fight with her one true love against her former employer.

My money is on that having been a one-shot joke, and that we'll never see Jenny again. Then again, we've seen Jenny before, or so I've heard - I don't have OotPCs. (Also, I think Jenny is the one playing cards with Crystal during that flashback.) So, you never know.

[David Argall]

I was under the impression we were talking innate character abilities only
Nope, we are comparing battle results, which counts everything.



(given the initial wording), in which case I'd peg Bozzak at +12 BAB,
Note the people out there claiming Haley is 15th, which would make Bozzak 19th, and BAB +14.


+4 STR
As a half-orc, Bozzak has an effective minimum of 16, and more likely an 18 before level adjustments and magic. It is not hard to get Bozzak up to Str 26.


without Belkar having a countervailing shield bonus,
Belkar does not have a shield during the first part of the battle with Bozzak.


the fact that Jenny's song gave them at least a +1 bonus to attack, the fact among the dozen at least some might have MW items, etc.
You are simply betting against the odds here. Bozzak, as the high level, and the guildmaster, is just going to have bigger pluses than the wimps. Thus you talk about MW weapons, but Bozzak probably has a +5 weapon [since Pete & others did.] and that makes your +10 a +14. Add in the str and we are up to +16, and climbing.


Ignoring the semantic quibbles, note that Bozzok had no idea who Belkar was, and most likely assumed he was some other Rogue. He most likely did PA, though not necessarily a "large" dose - I'd guess a standard +/-3.
Do the math. Bozzak can't profit from PA unless a-his to hit bonus is way higher than claimed, or b-Beldar was essentially naked and surprised. And Bozzak had seen Crystal miss. He easily presumes Belkar is not in the range for PA. Remember Bozzak is a very experienced NPC.


If the rogues couldn't hit Belkar on anything but a 20, the chances of the scenario in 611 happening aren't too bad. Basically, it's two guys rolling 20's and everyone else rolling non-20's.
That is approximately 1 chance in 500.



The argument here seems to be that "if Belkar can survive so long (about two rounds) against two high-level opponents, he shouldn't have gotten hit at all by those mooks! (But since he did, he couldn't)".
Which is why we are claiming that Belkar has plot armor. Belkar is being hit when it is convenient to the story, not when rules say he should be.



If we give every one of those mooks an attack, and add a few off-screen or whatever, then the statistical mode occurs at Belkar getting hit either never or once, probably leaning toward once if the number of attacks > 10. All we need is one more attack to be made - the percentage is probably moderately low but not that low.

Please show your work. On the face of it, you are being quite optimistic. The number of non-shown attacks is clearly low and may be zero. And the simple fact that the flankers made the only visible hits suggests that flank was an important contribution. 18-20 rolled twice yields 9 chances of hitting vs only one when 20 is required. This means that Belkar's AC is no better than the low levels + to hit +20, or the low 20s, where Bozzak hits fairly easily.

Belkar is benefiting from plot armor in the fight with Crystal and Bozzak.

[Vaarsuvius4181]

Seems a moot point now, now that Belkar is facing Crystal solo.

But nevertheless...



Out of the dozen or so enemies Belkar faces in 611, only one (the Half-Orc) carries a non-Finessable weapon, and being a Half-Orc, his STR is probably pretty generous. If we assume 16 STR for the Half-Orcs and 16 DEX for all the Rogues (a conservative estimate; at least half the Rogues probably have 18 DEX, especially that halfling), then Bozzok would need at least 20 STR (if not 22) to be +15. He could, but not likely, given that as a Rogue, he has a lot of other stats to worry about. Bozzok probably has good DEX, good INT, probably no penalties in either WIS or CHR if he's been a long-time Guild leader (and at least one of those two is probably fairly decent, in the 12-14 range), and given his melee bent, CON won't exactly be a dump stat either (probably no lower than 12).

I was under the impression we were talking innate character abilities only (given the initial wording), in which case I'd peg Bozzak at +12 BAB, +4 STR vs. +3 BAB, +3 DEX for a +10 advantage. Now, magical items on Bozzok's part upset this (as well as perhaps a Weapon Focus feat or something), but so do circumstantial factors the other way: the fact that all the Rogues in 611 got the +2 flanking bonus without Belkar having a countervailing shield bonus, the fact that Jenny's song gave them at least a +1 bonus to attack, the fact among the dozen at least some might have MW items, etc.



Ignoring the semantic quibbles, note that Bozzok had no idea who Belkar was, and most likely assumed he was some other Rogue. He most likely did PA, though not necessarily a "large" dose - I'd guess a standard +/-3.

If the rogues couldn't hit Belkar on anything but a 20, the chances of the scenario in 611 happening aren't too bad. Basically, it's two guys rolling 20's and everyone else rolling non-20's. The argument here seems to be that "if Belkar can survive so long (about two rounds) against two high-level opponents, he shouldn't have gotten hit at all by those mooks! (But since he did, he couldn't)". If we give every one of those mooks an attack, and add a few off-screen or whatever, then the statistical mode occurs at Belkar getting hit either never or once, probably leaning toward once if the number of attacks > 10. All we need is one more attack to be made - the percentage is probably moderately low but not that low.



This might happen, but I really think Crystal is Haley's and Haley's alone.



My money is on that having been a one-shot joke, and that we'll never see Jenny again. Then again, we've seen Jenny before, or so I've heard - I don't have OotPCs. (Also, I think Jenny is the one playing cards with Crystal during that flashback.) So, you never know.



IM GETTING SICK OF THIS NOW. would people stop trying to figure out what happens in the next strip by making crazy guesses based on mere numbers? Why dont we just accept the fact that belkars battling crystal, not that she has a +6 over his +4, therefor he wil definitley lose. It may be based on d and d, but first comes the story, not the numbers

[Optimystik]

IM GETTING SICK OF THIS NOW. would people stop trying to figure out what happens in the next strip by making crazy guesses based on mere numbers?

My my, someone has penalties to his Anger Management skill. :smalltongue:

Anyway, several of us agree with you that story comes before stats - hence the term "plot armor." That doesn't mean the number-crunching isn't still fun. :smallsmile:

[Yahoo_Serious]

My prediction? To go with his ranks in Chef (gourmet), we find Belkar also has ranks in Stylist (haute couture), like a diminutive Edward Scissorhands only with daggers. While at first humiliated by her Sabrina-era Audrey Hepburn hairdo, Crystal comes to realize her turn to evil was entirely the result of her old pseudo-punk bowl cut, and leaves the Guild forever to take a job as a veterinary assistant.